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Typhoons During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Philippines: Impact of a Double Crises on Mental Health

Ian christopher naungayan rocha.

1 School of Medicine, Centro Escolar University, Manila, Philippines

Ana Carla dos Santos Costa

2 Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil

Zarmina Islam

3 Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan

Shubhika Jain

4 Kasturba Medical College, Manipal, Karnataka, India

Samarth Goyal

Parvathy mohanan.

5 Medical University Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria

Mohammad Yasir Essar

6 Medical Research Center, Kateb University, Kabul, Afghanistan

Shoaib Ahmad

7 Punjab Medical College, Faisalabad, Pakistan

The Philippines, a disaster-prone country in Asia, was hit by 22 tropical cyclones during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Among the 22 tropical cyclones, 1 is recorded as the strongest tropical cyclone that made a landfall in world history. The recurrent typhoons in the Philippines during the pandemic have led to a long-lasting humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands of houses and collateral assets have been destroyed due to floods and landslides, leaving thousands of Filipinos homeless. Concurrently, the country has been experiencing a rise in the number of COVID-19 cases due to overcrowding in evacuation centers and lack of social distancing. The simultaneous existence of natural disasters and pandemic has caused devastating and detrimental effects to the mental health of Filipinos. Nonetheless, the Government of the Philippines, together with the World Health Organization and other humanitarian organizations, has been working hand-in-hand in implementing mental health approaches and providing psychological interventions to Filipinos who were greatly affected by the natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction

The Philippines, a Southeast Asian archipelagic country with 7641 islands, 1 has experienced a vast number of deadly disasters, such as recurrent typhoons, earthquakes, floods, storm surges, volcanic eruptions, and other natural disasters. 2 , 3 This is the reason why it was dubbed the third most disaster-prone country in the world, behind Tonga and Vanuatu. 3 – 5 Annually, an average of 20 typhoons hit the country, 5 of which are devastating. 6 , 7

More than 100 million residents are exposed to an extensive variety of natural disasters due to 4 main factors. 8 , 9 First and foremost is the country’s geographical location on the Pacific’s earthquake and volcano Ring of Fire, making it very susceptible to natural disasters. 7 , 9 Second factor is its warm ocean waters with a temperature of above 28°C, which may trigger typhoons to form. 9 – 11 Located just above the equator in the Western Pacific, the country is surrounded by the warmest ocean temperatures in the globe. 7 , 9 Third factor is the country’s deforestation problem which triggers mudslides and flash floods. 9 , 12 The last factor is the country’s social vulnerability. Many poor Filipinos who live on low-lying coastal islands are most vulnerable to disasters. 9 , 13 , 14

In 2020, the Philippines was hit by a total of 22 tropical cyclones in the middle of a pandemic. 7 Among the 22 tropical cyclones, there were 5 tropical depressions, 7 tropical storms, 3 severe tropical storms, 6 typhoons, and 1 super typhoon. 7 On May 14, 2020, when the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic had already resulted in 11 876 cases in the country, the first tropical cyclone for the year, Typhoon Vongfong (locally known as Typhoon Ambo ), hit the Philippines and devastated areas of the country’s east coast. 15 , 16 In less than 12 hours, it transformed from a strong tropical storm to a Category 3 typhoon, with heavy rains and winds of 96 mph that caused floods, landslides, power cuts, knocked down trees, countless roofs, in addition to damaging homes and infrastructure in the region, leaving thousands of people homeless, because they lived in areas at risk. 16

Six months after the first tropical cyclone in 2020 landed in the country, the Philippines was struck by Super Typhoon Goni (locally known as Super Typhoon Rolly ), the strongest tropical cyclone in world history, with rains and winds of 195 mph, on November 1, 2020. 17 Twelve regions in the Philippines, with a total population of 68.6 million, were reported to be affected by the Category 5 super typhoon. 18 – 20 Among the 12 regions, the Bicol region, specifically the provinces of Catanduanes and Albay, was greatly devastated. 18

The effects of this climatic disturbance were devastating and enhanced due to the current pandemic. During the landfall of Typhoon Vongfong, around 61 000 families were assigned to 2332 shelters in the Bicol region, and 13 000 people were evacuated in the Samar region, 21 while during the landfall of Super Typhoon Goni, around 400 000 individuals were displaced in the Bicol region. 22 Repetitive typhoons in the Philippines during the pandemic have laid the bricks for an everlasting humanitarian crisis as more than 305 000 houses and collateral assets have been damaged or destroyed. 23 Therefore, the scenarios facing the typhoon passage demanded immediate evacuation; however, due to isolation and social distancing, these actions were hindered. 16 Authorities tried to avoid agglomerations as much as possible at evacuation sites to ensure compliance with measures of social distance and hygiene, in addition to checking body temperature and the presence of symptoms of COVID-19. Other strategies included sending packages of food to municipalities that could suffer from a shortage of supplies. 15 , 21 , 24

In many instances, natural disasters can cause physical, mental, and social health problems, wherein poor mental health is more frequently reported. 25 However, when natural disasters are added to an ongoing pandemic, this combined situation may overwhelm and devastate many individuals, leading to poorer mental health. Thus, this article aims to address the effects of natural disasters on the mental health of Filipinos during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As the Philippines is known to be hit by at least 20 typhoons every year, 7 delayed mental health effects have been noticed more often than immediate effects. The worst typhoon in the Philippines’ natural disaster history recorded before the recent Super Typhoon Goni was Super Typhoon Haiyan (locally known as Super Typhoon Yolanda ) that hit in November 2013. 17 , 26 Studies reported that the mental health of Filipinos after Super Typhoon Haiyan has reasoned out the delay in manifestations of mental instability. At the time of disaster, surviving the worst and escaping the worst occupy the victims. Post-rescue, when a safe space is reached, which is after a period of 3 to 6 months, is when the mental component enters. Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and anxiety were reported after Super Typhoon Haiyan, and the same could be expected now. 27

With the added pandemic, adjustment problems and irrational fears, shock, and hopelessness are worse this time, compared with previous disasters in the Philippines. A constant state of despair is also seen in the victims, which is stirring the mental health of the population. The burden of losing a loved one and the effect of realizing it later, displacement of family, socio-economic loss, environmental loss, and lack of mental preparedness and social support with negative coping skills, such as substance abuse, may induce psychological stress. 25 One important cause of this is the non-availability of medications for people who were already on drugs for pre-existing mental health problems, which aggravates their condition. 27

Moreover, the effect of pandemics on mental health has also been studied frequently during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was stated in a study conducted within the early portion of 2020 that a minimum of 3.6 million Filipinos suffer from a type of mental, neurological, and substance use disorder. 28  Thus, one can conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a very detrimental effect on mental health, leading to depression, anxiety, severe stress, and high suicidal tendencies in the general population all over the world. 29 , 30

In the Philippines, many studies were conducted to assess the correlation between the pandemic and mental health of Filipinos. One study concluded that around 17% have moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms, whereas around 30% reported to have moderate-to-severe anxiety levels, and around 14% had moderate-to-severe stress levels. 31 Cases for mental health conditions, especially depression, anxiety, and severe stress significantly spiked up. A rise in suicide rates, increased by 25.7% in 2020, was a major concern. 32 Although the Philippines has consistently ranked in the top 5 of a worldwide optimism index, the National Center for Mental Health (NCMH) has revealed a huge rise in monthly hotline calls about depression, with numbers increasing from just 80 calls before lockdown to about 400. 33

Many factors having an adverse effect on mental health during the pandemic were identified, which include younger than age 30, female gender, well-educated, unmarried or separated, prolonged home stay, excessive worries about COVID-19, and association with people who have already contracted the disease. Protective factors, on the other hand, included male gender, staying within a joint family especially with children, having confidence in one’s own ability to make it through the pandemic as well as one’s health care professionals, having employment, and hand hygiene. 31 , 34

Since the passing of the country’s Mental Health Act, the comprehensive and integrated approach has been practiced. 35 To incorporate community involvement and provide a holistic approach, 3 main ideas have been highlighted, such as incorporation of culture in intervention program by ensuring audience appropriate language usage for the material and methodology used, participatory approaches by implying the utilization of community for both the delivery as well as the reception of the intervention, and evolving role of competent community psychologists who will empower the community by understanding and managing the stakeholders. 35 The importance of community-based intervention is felt since mental health is still stigmatized in the Philippines. Thus, involving the community in designing, delivering, and training would be a more agreeable approach.

Realizing this, the government of the Philippines introduced a multi-sectoral approach for mental health in a variety of settings, such as in offices, colleges, schools, and hospitals. 36 These include National Suicide Prevention Strategy, NCMH’s 24/7 hotline, and World Suicide Prevention Day to raise awareness. Collaborating with the government, the World Health Organization urges Filipinos to have conversations about mental health and highlights the need for empathy by listening to those affected. 33 Moreover, US $12 billion will be allocated to the purchase and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in developing countries, including the Philippines, by the World Bank Group. 37 The Office of Civil Defense and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council are also working to build preparedness within residents by encouraging sanitation and social distancing during the disaster to help improve safety within temporary shelters. 38

At the communal level, local initiatives are working to address mental health needs of the general population through training programs and requests to build more mental health facilities. A scarcity of well-trained psychiatrists exists in communal settings, which allows locals to find alternatives to training workers in identifying and managing mental health concerns, especially trauma. 39 One such example is the initiative by the regional office of the Department of Health (DOH) in Bicol which aims to train workers in rural and city areas to manage mental health concerns within their communities. The DOH has also requested the local government units to increase mental health institutes like Don Susano Rodriguez Memorial Mental Hospital in Pili as such institutes are few in number in the region and in the country. 40 In addition, the local government units in Bicol, with the assistance of the Department of Education, conducted therapeutic sessions on psychological well-being and mental support programs to assist the locals in recovering from trauma and anxiety caused by the recurrent catastrophic typhoons and current pandemic. 41 Teachers were also identified as key players in addressing mental health issues of children and hence initiatives to provide psychological first aid training to them are helping address their mental health needs. 39

Other suggestions include the use of telemedicine to help navigate the burden of mental health issues, and implementation of disaster risk reduction management and psychological interventions to Filipinos who were greatly affected by both natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic. 42 , 43 Psychological interventions include coping strategies, psychological first aid, debriefing, cognitive behavioral therapy, psychosocial support, and community-based interventions. 44 , 45 In addition, it is necessary that primary health care services, which constitute the most frequent contact of a greater part of the population, integrate aspects of mental health care, with a focus on previous diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of mental disorders in the community, as well as in the development of educational and awareness campaigns on the topic. Such integration is also necessary, because during the pandemic and in situations of public emergency, such services are the main form of care for patients with psychiatric diseases, due to the difficulty of accessing some services. In this scenario, more substantial financing by the government is also needed, with the objective of expanding and giving greater autonomy to primary care services, through the training of professionals to work in the initial management of mental disorders. Strategies like these can assist not only in the treatment of pre-existing mental illnesses, but also in reducing the incidence of new psychiatric disorders.

To conclude, the Philippines is undergoing a humanitarian crisis amidst a pandemic, which is causing detrimental impacts on the mental health of Filipinos. The Philippines experienced many natural disasters during the pandemic primarily due to its geographical location and warm ocean temperatures. Typhoons in 2020 had devastating infrastructural impacts on an already poverty-stricken country, with the addition of a growing COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of basic amenities, homelessness, financial stress, and lack of social distancing in evacuation centers were prevailing factors to mental instability. Among the psychological impacts, depression, anxiety, and PTSD were increasing within a population that already had high mental health problems. Nonetheless, international agencies and the government are making efforts to recover through the creation of economic opportunities, provision of COVID-19 vaccines, and mental health support services.

Author Contributions

ICNR conceived the idea and design; wrote the abstract, introduction, and discussion; organized the list of references; and edited the final draft. ACdSC wrote the introduction and discussion, and made critical comments and revision. ZI wrote the discussion and conclusion, and edited the final draft. SJ wrote the discussion. SG wrote the discussion. PM wrote the discussion. MYE made the critical comments and revision. SA edited the final draft. All authors revised and approved the final manuscript.

Conflict(s) of Interest

The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this paper.

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Philippines

Philippines: Super Typhoon Goni (Rolly) Humanitarian Needs and Priorities (Nov 2020 - April 2021)

Attachments.

Key Figures

24M PEOPLE IN SEVERELY AFFECTED AREAS

845K PEOPLE IN NEED OF ASSISTANCE

260K PEOPLE TARGETED FOR ASSISTANCE

$45.5M FUNDING REQUESTED ($US)

Strategic Objectives

In supporting the government-led response to Typhoon Goni, the country-based humanitarian partners under the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) umbrella will focus on life-saving and time-critical recovery needs of people, especially women and girls, living in the hardest-hit provinces, Albay and Catanduanes. In line with government's invitation to engage in a collective effort to provide assistance, the HCT will, from November 2020 to April 2021:

Save lives by providing immediate, integrated humanitarian assistance and protection to those in the most urgent need;

Restore livelihoods and access to critical services to promote the rapid recovery of the most affected communities;

Address and advocate the specific needs of groups of people, based on gender, age, disability or other vulnerability criteria so that they are protected against violence and have equal access to humanitarian aid without discrimination.

Assistance will be delivered in a manner that minimizes the risk of COVID-19 for disaster-affected people. Necessary measures shall be taken to ensure that the zero tolerance policy to sexual exploitation and abuse as stipulated in the Secretary General’s Bulletin ST/SGB/2003/13 is strictly observed.

Situation Overview

On 1 November 2020, Super Typhoon Goni, the world’s most powerful tropical cyclone this year thus far, brought torrential rains, violent winds, mudslides and storm surges to the Philippines’ largest island of Luzon. The typhoon, locally known as Rolly, left extensive destruction and damage in its path, killing at least 24 people, injuring 399 and displacing 130,266 people as of 9 November, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD). The typhoon has affected 1.9 million people in 8 of the country’s 17 regions, leaving an estimated 845,000 people in need of assistance.

Typhoon Goni made four landfalls in southern Luzon, with the Bicol Region bearing the brunt of its impact. Bato municipality in the eastern island province of Catanduanes was first hit with maximum winds of 225 km/h. The Philippine Red Cross reports that 80 to 90 per cent of the houses have been damaged in the provincial capital Virac. Communication and power lines were cut off, isolating 11 towns.

The typhoon then made landfall near Tiwi town in Albay province, where flooded rivers overflowed and coastal towns and low-lying areas were inundated. Volcanic mudflows from the active Mount Mayon buried at least 300 houses in Guinobatan municipality.

The typhoon progressively weakened as it hit Quezon and Batangas provinces south of Metro Manila before heading out to the West Philippine Sea as a tropical storm.

Of the 32 affected provinces, government reports indicate significant damage in Albay, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur and Quezon. Several local authorities have declared a state of calamity to access emergency funds and reprogram other funds for disaster response.

Food assistance, cash or work for food, shelter repair kits, hygiene kits, repair of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities, restoration of power and communication facilities, and psychosocial support and protection are the most-needed assistance, according to initial assessments. A combination of support is needed to address interrelated needs.

More than 137,000 houses have been damaged or destroyed with more than 60 per cent of the destruction recorded in Albay and Catanduanes, according to the DSWD report of 9 November. The typhoon was so strong that it not only destroyed houses made of light materials but also those that were built with concrete. Most families who evacuated as a pre-emptive measure have returned to their homes and have started to repair their damaged houses. Families who are unable to repair their damaged or destroyed houses remain in evacuation centres or with families or friends, and need immediate emergency shelter assistance and further shelter recovery support.

Typhoon Goni caused significant damages to health facilities, schools and essential services. Damage to infrastructure reached Php11.3 billion (US$234 million). According to government reports, 67 health facilities have been damaged, including government’s main COVID-19 laboratory based in Bicol and testing was suspended. The typhoon also damaged over a thousand schools, not sparing those that housed evacuees. With electricity posts and mobile phone towers toppled, it may take months to restore essential lifelines.

The typhoon compromised access to safe water and sanitation facilities, heightening the risk of communicable disease outbreaks. The affected people are now subsisting on springs and hand pumps for water, many of which are reported to have been contaminated by flood and sea waters. Many families whose homes have been totally or partially destroyed are reported to lack access to adequate sanitation and hygiene facilities and materials. Those in evacuation centres – many of them schools – are living in congested conditions with limited access to adequate WASH facilities that meet COVID-19 health standards.

Livelihoods have been lost, particularly of those who depend on farming or fishing to make a living. NDRRMC reports that 95,000 ha of agricultural land were affected across eight regions with Php3 billion ($61 million) worth of damage to rice, corn, high value crops and abaca. Catanduanes and Albay were the hardest hit, accounting for more than half of the overall damage to agriculture.

Typhoon Goni struck as the Philippines faced multifaceted challenges. The country has one of the highest levels of COVID-19 transmission in the Asia Pacific region. More than 396,400 cases have been confirmed of which 27,200 are active, and 7,539 have died as of 8 November, according to the Department of Health (DOH). Although relatively less affected, Albay reports 980 confirmed and 65 active cases, while Catanduanes has 132 confirmed and 8 active cases.

In addition to the serious public health consequences, the pandemic and the measures to contain it have triggered the Philippine economy to contract by 7.3 per cent in 2020, according to the Asian Development Bank report of September. Jobs were lost and remittances from workers overseas dropped sharply when widespread and stringent lockdown measures were in place. The World Bank suggests that years of steady decline in poverty will suffer a setback.

Vulnerabilities are increasing. Prior to the typhoon, the proportion of families experiencing hunger in the Philippines was seriously deteriorating from 8.8 per cent in December 2019 to a record-high 23.8 per cent (estimated 2.6 million households) by September, according to the Social Weather System survey. The prevalence of wasting in Albay and Catanduanes was above 10 per cent, which is double the 2018 national prevalence, according to government reports. The nutrition status will further deteriorate in an emergency context.

When Typhoon Goni hit, Bicol Region was still recovering from the impact of preceding tropical cyclones, including Typhoons Kammuri (Tisoy) and Phanfone (Ursula) that struck a year ago. Four weather systems preceded Typhoon Goni in October and stretched local coping capacities. Typhoon Molave, that hit the week before Typhoon Goni, left 29 dead or missing, injured 39, affected 775,500 people and damaged 52,600 houses. Tropical Storm Atsani (Siony) affected northern Luzon immediately after, from 5 to 6 November.

Economic recovery is fragile. The Asian Development Bank forecasts a slow recovery in the second half of 2020 and a stronger growth at 6.5 per cent for 2021, which is subject to downside risks such as the resurgence or escalation of the pandemic. Economic recovery for the Philippines, which will influence the recovery from the typhoon, will also depend on developments in world trade and the global economy.

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Philippines: typhoon vamco and super typhoon goni impact and response, as of 3 december 2020, philippines: super typhoon goni (rolly) and typhoon vamco (ulysses) humanitarian needs and priorities (nov 2020 - april 2021), philippines: super typhoon rai (odette) humanitarian needs and priorities revision (dec 2021 - jun 2022) (2 feb 2022), philippines: consolidated needs assessment report revision super typhoon rai (odette) (24 jan 2022).

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Unicef philippines join government and partners assess aftermath of super typhoon rolly, 700,000 children from over 5,000 barangays (villages) are estimated to have been affected.

One week after Super Typhoon Rolly (international name – Goni) struck southern Luzon, Philippines, on 1 November 2020, the damage to communities and disruption to the lives of families and children are becoming clear.

The provinces of Catanduanes and Albay in the Bicol region bear the brunt of impact of the strongest typhoon to hit the country this year to date amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Based from the 9 November assessment report by the government, UNICEF estimates that around 700,000 children from over 5,000 barangays (villages) have been affected.

UNICEF has joined the Philippine Government, fellow UN agencies, and partners on a rapid assessment mission to the most affected areas, with UNICEF co-leading on assessing the impact on affected communities’ health and nutrition, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), education, and on children’s safety from violence and abuse.

Early findings note that the super typhoon caused disruption of water supply, and damage to toilets and hygiene facilities. Water kits, access to proper sanitation and hygiene facilities, as well as essential hygiene products are needed to keep the affected people - especially those seeking shelter in evacuation centres - safe from potential spread of diseases, including COVID-19.

Rolly’s catastrophic winds and torrential rainfall damaged and destroyed several schools; flood waters swept away school supplies, making it difficult for school children to continue their education.

A number of health facilities were also damaged, which affected maintenance of crucial equipment such as cold chain storages for vaccine stocks. Because of this, some areas have suspended immunization services. Meanwhile, most health services have resumed for children and pregnant women.

Even before the typhoon hit, there have already been high rates of malnutrition in the affected areas. Availability of nutrition commodities, and infection prevention and control measures in evacuation centres should be prioritized. While help desks for women and children are being set up in evacuation centres, child-friendly spaces should also be established immediately to prevent children from playing in hazardous areas, and connect them to child protection and mental health services.

As we continue our assessment, we also commend the Philippine Government for implementing pre-emptive evacuations that have saved potentially thousands of lives. Learning from past emergencies significantly improved the readiness of the country’s national agencies and local governments.

We at UNICEF have released priority supplies for initial distribution, including 1,000 family water kits, 500 family hygiene & dignity kits, and 4 drums of chlorine powder for water disinfection. We are preparing teaching kits and learning kits to ensure that affected schoolchildren - especially those who have lost their homes and are temporarily in evacuation centres - can continue their education and their pursuit of a better future.

Donate now  to UNICEF to help children and families affected by emergencies. Your support enables UNICEF to provide ongoing assistance to the most vulnerable families affected by typhoons, earthquakes and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

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Impacts of super typhoons and climate change

Tropical cyclones, also known as typhoons or hurricanes, are among the most violent weather events, causing high costs and losses in any area. The Philippines is one of the most typhoon impacted countries globally, with about 20 tropical cyclones traversing the country’s area of responsibility each year. 

On 16 December 2021, super typhoon Rai, locally known as Odette, made its landfall in the Philippines, bringing torrential rains, violent winds, floods, and storm surges to the Visayas and Mindanao Islands (Philippines Super Typhoon, 2021).

Super Typhoon Odette left thousands of families homeless, reversing some significant economic and social progress that the Philippine government has made from its Covid-19 recovery. It has caused widespread damages to houses, public infrastructure, and power and telecommunications services in over seven provinces across the Philippines.

Reliefweb  provides data on the damages that super typhoon Odette brought to the country. As of 6 January 2022, there are 407 typhoon-related deaths, 7.3 million people affected, and 2.4 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

Studies linking super typhoons and extremes events to climate change

Integrated Disaster Science and Management: Global Case Studies in Mitigation and Recovery  published in 2018 state  a strong scientific consensus that anthropogenic climate change is contributing to stronger typhoons. This is due to higher sea surface temperatures and higher subsurface sea temperatures which removes the natural buffer on typhoon strength that colder water from below the ocean’s surface causes. Sea-level rise resulting from climate change will also worsen the effects of these strong typhoons. The Philippines is becoming more vulnerable to stronger cyclones with its rapidly growing population.

The  World Meteorological Organization  states that weather-related disasters increased by a factor of five in the last 50 years, driven by climate change. But thanks to improved early warnings and disaster management, the number of deaths has decreased by almost three-fold.

Chapter six of the  IPPC report  shows a list of extreme events linked to ocean and cryosphere changes due to climate change. These extreme events happened between 1998 to 2017 across all regions in the world. Included in the list is Super Typhoon Haiyan, a category five storm that hit the Philippines in 2013, the deadliest and most expensive natural disaster in the Philippines so far. The report attributed this event to the ocean heat content, and sea levels that have increased since 1998 due to the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase, but thermodynamic effects on extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea-level rise and storm surges due to climate change worsened its impacts.

The 2016 study, “ Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s “, found that landfalling typhoons in the East and Southeast Asian countries have intensified by 12-15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 doubled or tripled in number.

With  climate change  intensifying storms and cyclones and increasing their frequency, there is a pressing need to adapt, especially in developing countries and areas more vulnerable to extreme events.

The video below is a compilation of videos taken in various areas in the Philippines that Super Typhoon Odette affected. The threats and dangers that super typhoons pose highlight the importance of preparing and building resilience against extreme events.

A report from the  World Meteorological Organization  shows the global distribution of disasters and impacts by hazards (floods from riverine and general floods cause 44%, and 17% is associated with tropical cyclones). The report also shows the regional breakdown of natural hazards and associated deaths and economic losses.

Studies show that intense cyclones, storms, and typhoons are increasing due to the warming climate and will continue for the foreseeable future. Averting the escalation of the most severe natural events can be done through rapid decarbonisation of our economy and society and the deployment of local adaptation strategies.

The IPCC report states that for tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones or those forming in the mid-latitude (usually between 30 to 60 degrees latitude from the equator) or known simply as “depressions” or “lows”, investment in disaster risk reduction, flood management both ecosystem-based or engineered ones, and early warning systems decrease economic loss. Still, limited local capacities may hinder these investments in less developed countries despite adaptation efforts. Managing these changing storm trajectories and intensities can also be challenging due to the difficulties of early warning and the receptivity of the affected populations (Collins et al., 2019).

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Rolly intensifies into super typhoon, makes landfall in Catanduanes

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This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.

Image from PAGASA

Rolly (Goni) strengthened from a typhoon into a super typhoon at 2 am on Sunday, November 1, then made landfall in Bato, Catanduanes, at 4:50 am.

In its 5 am bulletin on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Rolly is already in the vicinity of the municipality of Bato, still moving west southwest at 25 km/h.

As it hit land, the super typhoon had maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h and gustiness of up to 280 km/h.

Super Typhoon Rolly: Weather updates, latest news in the Philippines

Even before PAGASA upgraded Rolly to super typhoon status, it was already considered the world’s strongest tropical cyclone for 2020 so far. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories )

“Within the next 12 hours, catastrophic violent winds and intense to torrential rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands…will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, the northern portion of Sorsogon, and the central and southern portions of Quezon. This a particularly dangerous situation for these areas,” PAGASA said at 5 am on Sunday.

Signal No. 5 – the highest tropical cyclone wind signal – is now raised in parts of Bicol. Metro Manila and nearby provinces have also been upgraded to Signal No. 3.

Check the list of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 am on Sunday:

Signal No. 5 (very destructive to devastating typhoon-force winds)

• Catanduanes
• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Calabanga, Siruma, Tigaon, Bombon, Magarao, Camaligan, Gainza, Canaman, Milaor, Naga City, Minalabac, Balatan, Bula, Pili, Ocampo, Goa, San Jose, Sagñay, Buhi, Iriga City, Baao, Nabua, Bato)

Signal No. 4 (very destructive to devastating typhoon-force winds)

• Camarines Norte
• rest of Camarines Sur
• northern part of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, Sorsogon City, Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Barcelona, Juban, Casiguran, Magallanes)
• Burias Island
• central and southern parts of Quezon (Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Plaridel, Unisan, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, Catanauan, General Luna, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Lopez, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez)
• northern part of Romblon (Concepcion, Corcuera, Banton)

Signal No. 3 (destructive typhoon-force winds)

• rest of Sorsogon
• northern part of Masbate (Mobo, Masbate City, Milagros, Uson, Baleno, Aroroy, Mandaon) including Ticao Island
• rest of Quezon including Polillo Island
• Metro Manila
• southern part of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, Olongapo City, Subic, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, Botolan, Cabangan)
• central part of Romblon (Calatrava, San Andres, San Agustin, Romblon, Magdiwang, San Fernando, Cajidiocan)
• northern part of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Island
• northern part of Oriental Mindoro (Bongabong, Gloria, Bansud, Pinamalayan, Socorro, Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)
• Northern Samar

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale- to storm-force winds)

• Nueva Vizcaya
• rest of Zambales
• Nueva Ecija
• rest of Oriental Mindoro
• rest of Occidental Mindoro
• rest of Romblon
• rest of Masbate
• northern part of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Niño, Almagro, Tagapul-an)
• northern part of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
• extreme northern part of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya)
• northwestern part of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)

Signal No. 1 (strong breeze to near gale conditions)

• mainland Cagayan
• Mountain Province
• Ilocos Norte
• Calamian Islands
• rest of northern part of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao, Barbaza, Laua-an)
• rest of Aklan
• northern part of Iloilo (Lemery, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
• northern part of Cebu (San Remigio, Bogo City, Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Bantayan Islands
• rest of Samar
• rest of Eastern Samar
• northern part of Leyte (San Isidro, Tabango, Villaba, Matag-ob, Palompon, Ormoc City, Pastrana, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Kananga, Capoocan, Carigara, Jaro, Tunga, Barugo, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Tacloban City, Babatngon, San Miguel)

PAGASA added that strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under Signal No. 1.

The state weather bureau also provided an updated rainfall outlook for Sunday, warning areas affected by the super typhoon to be on alert for floods and landslides.

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Oriental Mindoro
• Occidental Mindoro
• eastern parts of mainland Cagayan and of Isabela
• Eastern Samar

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Cordillera Administrative Region
• rest of Central Luzon
• rest of mainland Cagayan Valley

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Luzon
• rest of Visayas
• Northern Mindanao
• Zamboanga Peninsula

In addition, there is a high risk of storm surges in the next 24 hours. These storm surges, “which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast, can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.”

More than 3 meters high

• coastal areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte
• northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Island and Camarines Sur

Up to 3 meters high

• coastal areas of Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan
• southeastern coastal area of Batangas, facing Tayabas Bay
• most of the southern coastal areas of Quezon

Up to 2 meters high

• coastal areas of Marinduque, Lubang Island, Albay, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar
• remaining coastal areas of Quezon, Camarines Sur, and Batangas

“Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake,” added PAGASA.

Travel is also risky for all types of vessels in:

• seaboards of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals – rough to phenomenal seas, with waves 2.5 to 16 meters high
• remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon as well as eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas that are not under a tropical cyclone wind signal and Caraga – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.5 to 5 meters high

In the remaining seaboards of the country, there are moderate to rough seas, with waves 1.2 to 2.5 meters high. PAGASA advised those using small vessels to take precautionary measures, while “inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.”

Rolly’s track

After crossing the southern part of Catanduanes, PAGASA said the center of the super typhoon will cross Lagonoy Gulf and make landfall over the southern part of Camarines Sur or the northern part of Albay on Sunday morning.

Then Rolly’s center will cross Camarines Sur and Camarines Norte before heading toward Calabarzon on Sunday afternoon.

Rolly is forecast to exit the landmass of mainland Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea early Monday morning, November 2. By the time it emerges over the sea, it would have weakened back into a typhoon.

Rolly could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the early hours of Tuesday, November 3.

Meanwhile, Atsani – the tropical cyclone outside PAR that PAGASA has also been monitoring – reintensified from a tropical depression into a tropical storm at 2 am on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Atsani now has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. It is likely to intensify further into a severe tropical storm in the next 24 to 36 hours.

As of early Sunday, the tropical storm is 1,280 kilometers east of Southern Luzon, moving west northwest at a relatively fast 30 km/h.

Atsani is expected to join Rolly inside PAR on Sunday afternoon. Once it enters, it will be given the local name Siony. (READ:  LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020 )

But PAGASA maintained that Atsani or the potential Siony “remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days.”

Rolly is the Philippines’ 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, while Siony would be the 19th. Rolly is also the 5th tropical cyclone for October alone.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year.

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• November 2020 – 1 to 3
• December 2020 – 2 or 3
• January 2021 – 0 or 1
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1
• April 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of  La Niña .  – Rappler.com

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Rolly now a super typhoon, Signal No. 5 to be raised over 3 areas

Typhoon Rolly has been declared a Supertyphoon by PAGASA early Sunday morning.

The weather bureau added that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 5 will be raised over Catanduanes, Eastern Camarines Sur, and Albay. Catastrophic wind damage is expected.

At 2:00 AM today, Typhoon #RollyPH intensified into a Super Typhoon. TCWS #5 will be raised over Catanduanes, Eastern Camarines Sur, and Albay. Catastrophic wind damage is expected. pic.twitter.com/pj2uwT5hZe — PAGASA-DOST (@dost_pagasa) October 31, 2020

Earlier, in the 2 a.m. Severe Weather Bulletin, PAGASA said Catanduanes is under an extremely dangerous situation as Typhoon Rolly is hours from landfall over the province.

Within the next 12 hours, violent winds and intense to torrential rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rain bands of the typhoon will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, and the southern portion of Quezon. This a particularly dangerous situation for these areas.

As of 1 a.m. on Sunday, the center of the eye of Typhoon Rolly was located based on all available data including those from Virac and Daet Doppler Weather Radars at 110 kilometers east Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes with maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 265 kph and moving in the west southwest direction at the speed of 25 kph.

The center of the eye of Typhoon Rolly is forecast to make landfall at or near its current peak intensity over Catanduanes this early Sunday morning and over Camarines Sur.

Afterwards, the center will cross the Camarines Provinces before heading towards mainland Quezon this afternoon.

After crossing the CALABARZON area, the center of Rolly is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass and emerge over the Philippine Sea on tomorrow early morning.

During its traverse of Southern Luzon, Rolly is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 4 is hoisted over the following areas: 

• Catanduanes
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• the northern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Malinao, Tiwi, Polangui, Libon)
• the eastern portion of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Calauag, Lopez, Catanauan, Buenavista, Mulanay, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco)

TCWS No. 3 is hoisted over the following areas:

• the rest of Albay
• Burias and Ticao Islands
• the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Metro Manila
• the southern portion of Bulacan (Norzagaray, Santa Maria, Balagtas, Bulacan, San Jose del Monte City, Bocaue, Marilao, Meycauayan City, Obando)
• the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog)
• northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Gloria, Pinamalayan, Socorro, Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)
• the northern portion of Romblon (Concepcion, Banton, Corcuera)

The areas under TCWS No. 2 are:

• the rest of Masbate
• the rest of Romblon
• the rest of Oriental Mindoro
• Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
• the rest of Batangas
• Nueva Ecija
• the central and southern portion of Aurora (Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler, San Luis, Dingalan)
• the southern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan)
• the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax Del Norte, Dupax Del Sur)
• the northern portion of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An)
• the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, CanAvid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
• the extreme northern portion of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya)
• the northwestern portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)

TCWS No. 1 is declared over the following areas: 

• the southern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Iguig, Rizal, Piat, Tuao, Solana, Tuguegarao City, Enrile)
• the rest of Quirino
• the rest of Nueva Vizcaya
• the southern portion of Apayao (Conner)
• Mountain Province
• the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Dingras, Sarrat, San Nicolas, Laoag City, Paoay, Currimao, Badoc, Pinili, Batac City, Banna, Marcos)
• the rest of Aurora
• Calamian Islands
• the rest of the northern portion of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi)
• the rest of Aklan
• the northern portion of Capiz (Jamindan, Mambusao, Sapi-An, Ivisan, Roxas City, Panay, Pilar, Sigma, Dao, Panitan, Pontevedra, President Roxas)
• the northern portion of Iloilo (Carles, Balasan, Estancia, Batad)
• the northern portion of Leyte (Leyte, Tabango, San Isidro, Calubian, Capoocan, Carigara, Tunga, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City)
• the rest of Samar
• the rest of Eastern Samar

Hazards affecting land areas

On Sunday, the passage of Typhoon Rolly will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.

Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Leyte, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon.

Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.

Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. 

Very destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under TCWS No. 4, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS No. 3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS No. 2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS No. 1.

Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS No. 1.

In the next 24 hours, there is a high risk of storm surge of more than 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte and the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and Camarines Sur; up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas (facing Tayabas Bay), and most of the southern coastal areas of Quezon; up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Marinduque, Lubang Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Burias Island and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon, Camarines Sur, and Batangas.

Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake.

These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.

Hazards affecting coastal waters

On Sunday, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Other tropical systems being monitored

As of 1 a.m. on Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression Atsani was estimated at 1,385 kilometers east of Southern Luzon with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kilometers per hour and moving west-northwestward at 20 kph.

Atsani and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Sunday  afternoon.

Once inside the PAR, Atsani will be given the domestic name Siony. It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 12 to 24 hours. -- BAP, GMA News