case study growing grapes to make fine wines

A Beginner’s Guide to Growing Your Own Wine Grapes

Starting a backyard vineyard is an involved—but not impossible—process.

Maybe you’ve dabbled in making homemade wine and now are thinking about growing your own grapes. While wine grapes are by no means a plant-it-and-forget-it crop, a small backyard vineyard is possible to cultivate if you live in Zones 4-10. A variety of factors—such as geographic location, soil type and personal taste preference—will dictate the grape varieties you plant and the issues you’re likely to encounter during the growing season. 

Before embarking on your grape-growing journey, it’s important to know that it can take three or four years for vines to produce fruit. Just because you have a successful grape harvest doesn’t mean the wine you make with them will be, too. But that’s another story.

Here’s what you need to know about growing your own wine grapes.

Select a suitable planting site

Grapevines thrive best when planted in deep, well-drained sandy loam soils, and east-to-south exposures are desirable. Planting a vineyard on hillside land that has a slight to moderate slope is preferred, as it helps accelerate the drainage of water and cold, dense air to protect against frosts. Cultivate the soil (a neutral pH of around 7 is optimal), incorporating organic matter (manure, compost, peat moss, etc.) and removing any weeds. The vines should be planted a minimum of eight feet apart—both within and between rows—so make sure you have a plot large enough to accommodate the number you want to plant.

Choose wine grape varieties for your climate

There are many different kinds of grapes. While they technically can be eaten fresh, wine grapes generally have higher acid, higher sugar, higher skin-to-pulp ratio and more seeds than table and juice grapes. Some wine grapes are more finicky than others. Do your research on each grape before planting, considering what varieties will make the type of wine you want and what training and pruning they will need. 

Although they’re capable of producing excellent wines, European grape varieties such as Chardonnay, Merlot and Pinot Noir are susceptible to a host of diseases and are less cold-tolerant. If you’ve never grown grapes before, and especially if you live in a place with harsh winters or humid summers, consider planting cold-hardy hybrid varieties such as Chambourcin, Marquette, Baco Noir, Vidal Blanc or Chardonel. For more region-specific advice, contact your local agricultural extension to find out what they recommend. 

Prepare for planting

Early spring is the recommended time to plant grapevines, giving them time to establish their root systems before their first winter. Whether you order your vines—which will be grafted onto established rootstocks—through an online catalog or through a local nursery, you’ll want to plant them immediately. Remove any broken or damaged roots, and soak the vines in water before planting. Dig a hole a few inches deeper than the longest roots, then plant the vines with the roots pointed down and evenly spread out. Space them at least eight feet apart. Do not use any fertilizer at this time. To protect the young vines from deer and other nibbling animals, you may want to use grow tubes. To support the vine as it grows, install a trellis system .

Tending to your vines

It’s widely said that vines that struggle generally produce better-quality grapes. When you restrict a matured vine’s water supply, make nutrients scarce and prune it hard, it will fruit. But it will take several years of tending to your vines before they bear grapes. 

When you first plant the vine, reduce its numerous shoots to one, cutting it back to three buds. As the plant grows, it will produce new green shoots. When the shoots are eight to 12 inches long, choose the best one and support it with a stake. Trim away the others. As the shoot grows through its first and second summers, continue tying it up the stake to ensure it doesn’t break in the wind. This shoot will become your permanent trunk. Once a strong trunk is established, you can train its shoots to grow up and along the trellis by tying them to the wire. Remove any new shoots that sprout from the root area or lower trunk.

When your grapevines are mature, pruning grows even more essential, and the it should be done twice a year: once when the plant is dormant in late winter to remove old or dead growth, and another in spring or early summer to tidy up the vines. When it comes to wine grape vines, heavy pruning provides the best fruit. For the best grapes, it’s recommended they have only 20 to 30 buds per vine after pruning.

(For detailed information about pruning and fertilizing your vines, follow the steps in the Kniffin System , recommended for home vineyards, or check with your local agricultural extension office.)

Harvest the grapes

Grapes should be harvested only after they are fully ripe. Unlike some other fruits, their sugar content will not improve after picking. Depending on the variety, you want to harvest your grapes when they reach between 19 and 25 brix (the measurement for sugar content in a liquid). The older your vines get, the more grapes they’ll produce. For example, a three-year-old vine may produce anywhere from five to 10 pounds of grapes, whereas mature vines can produce up to 30 pounds of grapes in a good year. From there, it takes about 40 pounds of grapes to make 12 bottles of wine. So your level of commitment will determine whether your grape-growing hobby manifests itself into something more.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed .

Great info. Thanks

I want to start making up wine using simple plants

Looking into starting a small vineyard in central Florida. Would like to know what varieties are best suited?

how do i make the wine tho

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Climate, terroir, and wine: What matters most in producing a great wine?

by Gregory V. Jones Thursday, December 12, 2013

Wine can grow all over the world, including the pre-Alps of the Veneto region in Italy where Prosecco is produced. Gregory V. Jones

Weather and climate have played decisive roles throughout human existence — where and how cultures developed, where they migrated and even how some died out. The most successful early civilizations were those that developed strong agrarian systems based on what crops were most compatible with the climate. If conditions changed for one reason or another, people migrated to areas with a more suitable environment to grow a certain crop or raise specific animals. Today, as in the past, climate is clearly one of the most important factors in the success of all agricultural systems, influencing whether a crop — including winegrapes — is suitable to a given region, largely controlling crop productivity and quality, and ultimately driving economic sustainability.

Today, wine is produced all over the world, from Australia to Scandinavia, Brazil to South Africa, and Argentina to Wisconsin. Although decisions about what crops to grow commercially are largely driven by regional history and tradition, they are also influenced by regional and international economics. However, both tradition and economics have ultimately been driven by the ability to grow the crops sustainably within a given climate.

This fact is most evident with viticulture and wine production, in which climate is arguably the most critical environmental aspect in ripening fruit to its optimum quality to produce a desired wine style. Wine, which captures aspects of history, art, romanticism, geography, cultural identity, gastronomy, investment potential, and science — all in one agricultural pursuit — provides countless avenues for research and enjoyment, both academically and by wine aficionados everywhere.

The complex influences that result in a wine’s unique traits are embodied in the concept of “terroir,” a term that attempts to capture all of the myriad environmental and cultural influences in growing grapes and making wine. Terroir is derived from the Latin “terre” or “territoire,” and its first modern definition appears as “a stretch of land limited by its agricultural capacity.”

Historically, the use of terroir as a defining aspect of landscapes grew out of the traditions of the Cistercian monks in Burgundy, France, but the term was also broadly embraced by the French as an agricultural production concept tied to specific regions and numerous other crops or food products. Burgundians also used the concept to market their wine, promote tourism, affirm regional traditions and obtain a comparative advantage over other regions, leading some to see it as a centuries-old economic protection mechanism.

The concepts embodied in terroir eventually led to the “ appellation d’origine contrôlée ” (AOC) system in 1935 — a French certification system that legally delineates geographical regions and regulates agricultural products (“produits du terroir”). As applied to wine, this also led to the notion that a wine region is a collection of terroirs, some better than others. The concept has spread to other countries, including the U.S., where the regions are called American Viticultural Areas, or AVAs.

The importance of regional ties to the climate, soil and grape varieties is at the core of terroir. However, terroir remains one of the most intriguing and perplexing challenges in the world of wine today, largely because what terroir encompasses is not universally understood or accepted. Nonetheless, the concept has become woven into the thinking and commentary of nearly all journalists, winemakers and educators who discuss wine.

Perspectives on terroir tend to range from it being an all-encompassing concept (wine is a holistic result of nature and nurture), to nature in isolation (fixed and largely immutable by humans). In more general terms, public perceptions of terroir tend to associate it with “land” or “soil,” a form of “geographic identity,” “a sense of place,” or as Matt Kramer of Wine Spectator eloquently put it, “somewhereness.” As one might expect, there has also been controversy and debate in wine circles between the Old World (Europe) and New World (everywhere else), whereby terroir is discussed in production terms as either “traditional” in the Old World or “industrial” in the New World; as being “naturally endowed” (Old World) versus being used just for “marketing” (New World); or in terms of “protectionism” of a long-standing tradition (Old World) versus “experimentation” (New World) in approaches to growing grapes and making wine.

Terroir and Science

Increasingly, scientists have been asked to help identify the most important aspects of terroir and help define the boundaries between nature and nurture . As such, the study of terroir has developed tremendously over the last 20 years and has typically followed five main areas of study: quantifying terroir component influences on vine growth through the examination of climate-soil-water relationships; quantifying terroir component influences on fruit composition and wine quality; regional fingerprinting of wines (chemical signatures) ; viticulture zoning (finding the best terroirs); and precision viticulture (spatial technologies to manage and improve the crop).

From this call for a better scientific understanding of terroir, scientists have identified more than 400 aromatic compounds in wine, with most resulting from fermentation, yeasts, grape variety and  the way wine matures. So far, research has shown very little evidence that these aromatic compounds come directly from the climate, soil or geology. But certainly the climate, soil and geology affect what’s grown where, so they do indirectly impact the wines in that way. In addition, recent research has shown that chemical fingerprinting of wine from different regions may be possible, with more than 60 trace elements tied to soil and variety. Other research has shown that even after aging, wine still holds onto the chemical signature of the forest from which the wood in the wine barrel was harvested. These results are also being examined as a means to authenticate wine — detecting fraud — by region, variety, age and processing.

All that said, science has a long way to go in explaining the differences in taste and aroma that we experience in wine. This raises the question: Can you taste terroir? This has been difficult to prove due to the complex chemical processes that occur in wine production, but many wine drinkers say that you absolutely can taste it.

One example is with the growing use of the term “minerality” to describe some wines . Despite what people might think, minerals from the geology have no taste, as these are complex crystalline and insoluble compounds with no flavor. Even the mineral nutrients in wine — for example, magnesium, zinc, iron — are found largely in very low, undetectable concentrations, or are completely lacking flavor. Yet some magical permutation of complex organic compounds, whose production has been influenced by inorganic cations, has produced a characteristic that reminds us of minerals.

Another part of the challenge is that taste and/or aroma sourcing in wine is tied to human sensory abilities and psychological influences. Large variations in tasting abilities lead to “informed” tasters identifying wines from different localities and even down to the vineyard block, but what about the untrained or uninformed wine drinker? The difficulties are that taste and/or aroma judgment is intuitive and subjective, prone to experience, suggestion and expectation. A given wine might remind you of a taste or smell from your childhood, regardless of what anyone else thinks. Or because many people are intimidated by those “in the know,” they may tend to believe a wine has the aroma or flavor they are told it does, even if that judgment is completely bogus!

But even if we can overcome these obstacles and scientifically identify a flavor or aroma in a wine, how do we know with any certainty it is because of the soil, geology, grape variety (or different clones of a variety) or other factors?

The Climate Component of Terroir

Climate provides the most identifiable differences in wine styles for nearly all wine drinkers . The general characteristics of wines from a cool climate vary distinctly from those from a hot climate. Grape varieties best suited to a cool climate tend to produce wines that are more subtle with lower alcohol, crisp acidity, a lighter body, and typically bright fruit flavors. Those from hot climates tend to produce bigger, bolder wines with higher alcohol, soft acidity, a fuller body, and more dark or lush fruit flavors. Geology and soil do not produce these broad differences, but they do produce the subtle expressions of these qualities within the same climate or region.

Wine production occurs over relatively narrow geographical and climatic ranges, most often in mid-latitude regions that are prone to high climatic variability (the vintage effect). The result is that wine production typically occurs within climates where the growing season averages 12 to 22 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, individual winegrape varieties have even narrower climate ranges, which further limit the areas suitable for their cultivation. For example, pinot noir is grown mostly in cool climates with growing seasons that range from roughly 14 to 16 degrees Celsius in places such as Burgundy or Northern Oregon. Across this 2 degree climate niche, pinot noir produces the variations in style for which is it known, with the cooler zones producing lighter, elegant wines and the warmer zones producing more full-bodied, fruit-driven wines. Although pinot noir can be grown outside these climate bounds, it readily loses the style and quality for which it is known.

Globally, these temperature limits are found mostly in the mid-latitudes; however, latitude as a comparison for climate suitability for viticulture and wine production has been misunderstood. The classic comment is that “we are on the same latitude as Bordeaux; therefore we can grow the same varieties and make the same quality and style of wine as Bordeaux.” But the climate in Bordeaux is substantially more humid and receives much greater rainfall during the growing season than, say, the often-compared Napa Valley. Both are known for their cabernet sauvignon wines, but they produce them in quite different climates. Bordeaux has relatively low daytime temperatures and high nighttime temperatures due to higher humidity, whereas the Napa Valley has much higher daytime temperatures and much lower nighttime temperatures due to lower humidity.

Furthermore, general comparisons with Mediterranean climates have also been misinterpreted. One of the reasons is that the Mediterranean region is influenced by two large bodies of water — the Atlantic and the Mediterranean — whereas most other regions that have comparable climates have a more linear coastline, cooler ocean temperatures, and typically one body of water (with the exception of South Africa). Another interesting example of climate differences is in Italy, where the dry, Mediterranean climate in the south gives way to more humid subtropical climates in the north. In the United States, a similar transition is found when one goes from California to the East Coast.

Even the limitation of wine production to Mediterranean-like climates has shifted. Viticulture has spread throughout much of the world, with vineyards found as far north as Scandinavia (helped by a warming climate) and even near the equator, such as in Brazil, where two crops per year are produced. In these regions, however, growing winegrapes is far riskier due to the potential for winter freezes, untimely rainfall, tropical cyclones and increased disease risk. But innovation and intent have developed thriving local to regional wine identities all over the world.

Are there ideal weather conditions for growing winegrapes? Although no two vintages in any region are exactly alike, growers everywhere would be ecstatic with adequate precipitation and warmth to grow the vine and ripen the fruit, with no weather extremes (like frost, hail and heat waves) and disease. During the dormant period, this would equate to enough soil-replenishing rainfall and a cool to cold winter, without vine-killing low temperatures but with enough chilling to ensure bud fruitfulness the following year. The spring would be free from wide temperature swings and frost, and have enough precipitation to feed vegetative growth. During flowering, the weather would be cloud-free with moderately high temperatures and high photosynthetic potential to allow the flowers to fully set into fruit. The summer growth stage would be dry, with heat accumulation to meet the needs of the variety and few heat stress events. The ripening period would be dry with a slow truncation of the season toward fall, with moderately high daytime temperatures and progressively cooler nights.

Although conditions like these may happen in a given vintage, it’s more likely that variation in one or more weather aspect will deviate from an ideal vintage, often changing the overall wine style, influencing one or more flavor and aroma nuance of the wine, or limiting yields and quality. The result is that no two vintages are exactly the same, either in their weather or wine.

A Changing Climate

Given how important climate is to grapes and wines, climate change poses a challenge . Climates have changed throughout Earth’s history, of course, but the rate and magnitude of change occurring today appear to be greater than what has been experienced in the past. Given that many crops, including winegrapes, have relatively narrow climate niches for optimum production and quality, even small changes in climate could bring numerous challenges . Fortunately, growers have already and will continue to apply numerous adaptations in both the vineyard and winery.

One of the most obvious adjustments is to change to a winegrape variety that is more suited to the new climate; however, knowing when to do this for long-term sustainability will be a challenge. Furthermore, changes to varieties will likely bring additional challenges in marketing new regional identities in an ever-competing international marketplace. Other adjustments include modifying vineyard row orientation, trellising and irrigation, as well as working with virus- and disease-free plant material and understanding the genetic diversity of grapevines. There is a wealth of potential adaptive strategies for growers. However, the next logical question in terms of terroir is then: Are the terroirs that are best for one variety also best for another? Can you just switch winegrape varieties without consequences?

What Aspect of Terroir Is Most Important?

In the continuum of terroir influences, climate is the most basic and most profound in terms of what can be grown where and how. Geology, landscape and soil are important factors that mediate the interaction between climate and the vine, especially soil water supply and nutrition. Proof comes from observations that the same grape variety will not grow to the same quality in different climates; but locations with a similar climate but different geology and soils will often produce similar quality wines with flavors and aromas typical for that variety. This sequence also follows from observations that some vineyards consistently produce fine wine, no matter what the weather does, but when the weather is just right, these sites produce exceptional wines. However, it is important to remember that people play significant roles in the entire continuum — through choosing a variety that suits the climate and site, managing the vine within the vagaries of the climate, and processing the fruit into wine.

Even if we can make these statements about which aspects of terroir are most important, numerous questions surrounding the notion of terroir are still asked by wine writers, scientists and the public. One common question is whether terroir is real or simply a suite of purposefully vague, indefinable influences. Experiments have clearly shown that numerous aspects of terroir can be specified.

Another interesting question is whether the best terroirs have been found. Are there more out there like Romanée-Conti, where a mere 1.8 hectares of land in Burgundy planted with pinot noir can command some of the highest wine prices in the world? And how might a changing climate affect such terroirs?

But as terroir is further examined, we might ask ourselves whether we really want to fully quantify the effects and potentially lose the mystique that makes it an enjoyable debate topic over a glass of wine.

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The Quest to Grow the First Great American Wine Grape

Genetics might be the key to creating vineyards that both resist disease and don’t taste like skunk

Kevin Begos

There’s no nice way to put it: American grapes make bad wine. At least, that’s their reputation. For decades oenophiles have turned up their noses at the idea of native American grapes, with the industry bible Oxford Companion to Wine describing their flavors as being akin to “animal fur and candied fruits.” And so the Napa Valley grew famous with its plantings of Chardonnay, Merlot, Sauvignon, Cabernet or Pinot—the so-called “noble” French grapes—while Concord grapes were deemed only fit for jelly and juice.

But American wine grapes are poised for an epic rebrand. Using DNA analysis and other high-tech tools, a group of scientists in Minnesota, California, New York and other states have taken a harder look at indigenous American grapes and found long-hidden qualities that could redeem them even to the most snobbish of wine-sippers. Their goal: to produce a drink whose taste and quality can compete with the most coveted French and Italian vintages.

“We have grapes that taste like pineapple, strawberry, black pepper. I think the resources are only limited by the amount of time we spend exploring them,” says Matthew Clark , an assistant professor of grape breeding and enology at the University of Minnesota. “We’re really trying to develop wine products that are more in the European style, but utilize the resources of the North American germ plasm.”

Clark is part of VitisGen , a project that aims to do for wine what the Human Genome Project did for humans. That is: use the vast power and rapidly declining cost of DNA research to pinpoint the precise chromosomal locations in American grapes that drive flavors, aromas, grape size and other important attributes. The U.S. Department of Agriculture began funding VitisGen in 2011, and then VitisGen2 in 2017. The project now includes scientists from Cornell University, the University of California at Davis, the University of Minnesota and other universities, as well as industry giant E&J Gallo.

The new research has uncovered another valuable trait as well: a reservoir of natural pest and disease resistance. Like strawberries, grapes are particularly vulnerable to pests and disease, which explains why more than 260 million pounds of pesticides were applied to vineyards between 2007 and 2016 in California alone, according to official state records.

Downy mildew is one of the leading global problems. So is Pierce’s disease, which causes entire vineyards to wither and die and is transmitted by small winged insects called sharpshooters. Much of the vineyard treatments involve sulfur and copper—relatively low-risk chemicals—but even those traditional sprays can cause problems. Breeding grapes with their own resistance to these threats could be a life saver for vineyards across the country.

Clark says the new CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing technology could speed up the creation of new varieties by precisely deleting the DNA that drives unwanted attributes. "It’s a tool that plant breeders are certainly using in a number of crops. Some of the questions that come to mind, and I don't know if these are warranted or not, but what do you put on a bottle? What would the label say when you have [a] wine that has now been, for lack of a better word, modified with CRISPR?” Clark wonders.

It may even be possible to breed those nasty “animal fur” flavors out of native American grapes. “We’re doing work right now to identify some of the off aromas and flavors, and we’re making great strides,” says Clark. “Ultimately our goal is to have a DNA test that we can use to screen a seedling years before it produces its first fruit as part of the breeding program, to determine if it has that negative trait or not.”

Yet another challenge awaits this theoretical improved American wine. Compelling science and environmental benefits are all well and good, but will picky wine lovers accept these unfamiliar grapes? One answer came in 2015, when The New York Times listed the top 10 wines of the year. “A few years ago, I never imagined I would fall in love with a Vermont wine,” critic Eric Asimov wrote of Deidre Heekin and Caleb Barber’s La Garagista vineyard. “[But the] wines are so soulful that they demanded my attention. I was especially taken with the floral, spicy, lively 2013 Damejeanne.”

It was as if a Kansas restaurant had won Times praise for best sushi.

The wines he loved used Marquette red and La Crescent white grapes, both created at the University of Minnesota (UM). UM varieties are now grown in numerous states, and in Canada. “The wines we produce, that niche itself, they offer some unique flavor profiles. It’s an opportunity for someone who’s interested in locally produced products,” Clark said, adding that large producers such as Gallo may be able to use such grapes for blended wines that don’t specify a particular variety.

The Minnesota program began in the mid-1980s, but moved very slowly at first. “It really took nearly 20 years to get Frontenac, our first variety, out [into vineyards],” Clark said. Frontenac was a hybrid: 50 percent from a wild Vitis riparia American vine, and 50 percent from Vitis vinifera , the European grapevine. Other new cultivars come from the American native grapes V. labrusca or V. rupestris .

In the past only one out of 10,000 Minnesota grape seedlings made it to the stage of being grown in vineyards. Many have one desirable trait but lack others, such as berry size or productivity. “So it really is a numbers game,” Clark said in a phone call. Now VitisGen is speeding up the process.

The American grapes clearly have potential, but one expert pointed to an obstacle. For U.S. consumers, grape variety and wine preference are strongly linked, notes Geoff Kruth , a Master Sommelier and the president of GuildSomm, an international nonprofit based in California. “It takes quite a bit of time and exposure for new grapes to catch on with the drinking public,” Kruth wrote in an email. “If the quality is there, unknown varieties with good yields can always find a home in blends or niche bottlings. But you wouldn't want to be in a position to have to sell large quantities of any wine without a familiar grape variety or brand name blend.”

Clark is optimistic, given the strong interest in regional foods, craft brewing and small distilleries in recent years. “Maybe we'll swing back to where we were before the '70s, where people bought red wine and white wine, or bought by region. And they weren't looking for Chardonnay, or Merlot or Pinot on the label.” Maybe next time, they’ll be looking for Vermont.

Viticultural Apartheid?

To understand the challenge of creating a truly American wine grape, you have to understand that viticulture has become a monoculture. French grapes dominate the marketplace, especially in America.

I asked geneticist Sean Myles if there was any justification for planting only the famous varieties. He’s at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, and was the lead author on a widely cited 2011 grape genome paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . DNA analysis showed that humans have been breeding and mixing grape varieties for at least 8,000 years—when organized winemaking began in the Caucasus Mountain region. That’s thousands of years before the French started making wine.

Myles reeled off a botanical sermon about rampant viticultural apartheid. “If applied to any other category you’d say this is just plain old racism. A little bit of wild ancestry? Ah, you’re still a hybrid. You’re inferior to the noble European grapes,” Myles said of the prejudice against American grape DNA.

One grape scientist who isn’t involved with the VitisGen research said the shift towards global grape monoculture began in the late 1800s. Before that time many countries and regions grew hundreds and hundreds of local varieties. Then in the 1860s a tiny, aphid-like pest called Phylloxera began destroying vineyards throughout Europe. Two things happened during replanting.

“First, they had to choose which variety to use, and in many cases—not only in France, but also in Switzerland, Italy, and Germany, and everywhere—they had a tendency to forget the old (native) grandfather varieties,” says Jose Vouillamoz , a Swiss wine scientist and co-author of the acclaimed reference book Wine Grapes . “And they chose to plant varieties that were easier to cultivate, and especially that would produce more. So that’s why in many regions some of the ancient, traditional varieties have been almost abandoned, or sometimes have disappeared.”

The solution to Phylloxera was grafting European vines onto American rootstock, which had natural resistance.

In recent decades the global shift towards monoculture has accelerated, even as some vineyards try to preserve old local varieties. A study in the Journal of Wine Economics found that between 1990 and 2010, Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot more than doubled their share in the world’s vineyards. By 2010 French grape varieties comprised 67 percent of vineyard acreage in New World countries, up from 53 percent just 10 years before.

Inbred Nobility

A final irony is that oenophiles are in some ways loving their famous French grapes to death—or more precisely, preventing them from loving at all. In an obsessive quest to keep classic wine flavors consistent, vineyards stopped natural crossbreeding. Instead, new vines are created not from seeds but by cutting pieces of existing vines and grafting them to rootstock. (The grapes self-pollinate, too, so aside from mutations the DNA doesn’t change.) In other words, the famous grapes stopped evolving—but insects and diseases didn’t. For example, Pinot Noir may date to the Roman era.

A VitisGen summary notes that modern grape production is expensive and requires large quantities of chemicals, “largely due to the widespread planting of unimproved cultivars, developed 150—2000 years ago, that are highly susceptible to biotic and abiotic stresses.”

Myles elaborated, with a grim prediction. “That is going to be the potential demise of the entire international wine industry as we know it today. The industry is losing the arms race to the pathogens that continually evolve and attack the grapevines. It’s really only a matter of time. If we just keep using the same genetic material, we’re doomed,” he said.

That might seem unlikely, except that botanists can cite examples where excessive crop monoculture led to disaster. By the early 1800s most people in Ireland were planting just one potato variety, propagating it from shoots. That wasn’t a problem until the rot disease Phytophthora infestans showed up in the 1840s, destroying entire harvests and leading to massive starvation. The Gros Michel banana dominated markets until the 1950s, when a fungus destroyed many plantations. It was replaced by the supposedly immune Cavendish, which now occupies about 90 percent of the world market. But the old Gros Michel fungus kept on evolving—and now it can attack Cavendish, too.

It’s a Catch-22 for the industry: keep using the same grapes wine-lovers expect, even as they grow weaker genetically, or risk introducing unfamiliar new varieties.

Tasting the Past: The Science of Flavor and the Search for the Origins of Wine

In this viticultural detective story wine geeks and history lovers alike will discover new tastes and flavors to savor.

Psychology, Wine and Climate

For centuries winemakers had no precise way to separate the good characteristics in native grapes from the obviously bad ones. Now they do. Andy Walker , a viticulture expert at the University of California at Davis who is also part of the VitisGen project, says the continued aversion to American varieties is purely psychological.

“And in fact”—given the social pressures to reduce chemical use and the way climate change is already impacting wine growing regions—"we’ll have to get over it,” he says.

Vouillamoz agrees that climate change will ultimately force vineyards to make tough decisions. To make the point, at one wine conference he faked a bottle of Domaine Romanée-Conti—one of the most renowned and expensive wines in the world. “And I put on the label, the vintage 2214. And I was asking the audience what do you think will be in this bottle, in 200 years from now. Will there still be Pinot Noir, as it is today, or something else?” he says.

Vouillamoz says Pinot Noir grapes in Burgundy are already out of the optimal window of cultivation because of increasing heat, yet Romanée-Conti’s legendary owners would turn in their graves if future generations plant some other variety. It would be like planting date palms to replace the Washington, D.C. cherry trees.

“So if you want to keep Pinot you can do adjustments, but at some point you will need some more help,” Vouillamoz says. That could mean tweaking Pinot with heat-resistant genes from some obscure vine.

Scores of smaller vineyards are now using native grape hybrids in cool climate areas across North America. In 2014 Ducort vineyards in Bordeaux planted new vines that contain disease-resistant genes, and German vineyards have done similar plantings.

But the general public might be confused by such grapes. Scientists overwhelmingly agree that GMO crops are safe to eat, but consumer resistance is a reality. One newspaper mistakenly used the term “Frankengrapes” to describe Walker’s research. That word was originally used to describe an early GMO tomato variety that contained a flounder gene. The headline was eventually changed, and Walker said the wine writer didn’t aim to denigrate his work. Yet the risk of exaggeration was there.

Technically, the VitisGen scientists are using genomics and other tools just to identify various genes – not to insert other animal or plant species DNA beyond grapes. Clark says it’s essentially a greatly speeded up version of old-fashioned breeding. Walker agrees. “There’s no reason to use genetic modification unless you don’t have the genes at hand. And within Vitis we have everything we need,” he says of the native grape varieties.

Using just a handful of grapes doesn’t even make sense from a purely sensory point of view, Walker adds. “We’re still caught in that trap of saying, ‘well, there are only 10 good varieties in the whole world, and that’s it.’ Anyone who’s drunk wine around the world realizes this is a complete fallacy,” he says. “There are wonderful wines to be made everywhere from a huge number of varieties. But it’s a marketing scam that we ended up with 10 varieties that are [supposedly] destined to be the best in the world.”

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News from the Columbia Climate School

Wine Regions Could Shrink Dramatically With Climate Change Unless Growers Swap Varieties

Sarah Fecht

If you were planning to drink your way through the climate apocalypse, here’s some unfortunate news: Just as climate change threatens homes, food and livelihoods, so does it threaten the world’s supply of wine. If temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, the regions of the world that are suitable for growing wine grapes could shrink by as much as 56 percent, according to a new study. And with 4 degrees of warming, 85 percent of those lands would no longer be able to produce good wines.

Fortunately for wine-lovers, however, the new study also outlines an adaptation strategy. The findings indicate that reshuffling where certain grape varieties are grown could halve the potential losses of wine-growing regions under 2 degrees of warming, and reduce losses by a third if warming reaches 4 degrees. The study is published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences .

Scientists have long suspected that crop diversity is key to making agriculture more resilient to climate change, and wine grapes offer a unique opportunity to test this assumption. They are both extremely diverse — there are more than 1,100 different varieties planted today, growing under a wide range of conditions — and well-documented, with harvest data stretching back centuries. Wine grapes are also extremely sensitive to the changes in temperature and season that come with climate change.

“In some ways, wine is like the canary in the coal mine for climate change impacts on agriculture, because these grapes are so climate-sensitive,” said co-author Benjamin Cook from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Cook and colleagues investigated whether utilizing this wide diversity of wine grapes could help to build resiliency. Their findings may help other areas of agriculture adapt to a warming world.

The researchers — led by Ignacio Morales-Castilla at the University of Alcalá in Spain and Elizabeth Wolkovich at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver — focused on 11 varieties of wine grape, based on their diversity in development timing, a key trait for climate adaptation. The researchers selected cabernet sauvignon, chasselas, chardonnay, grenache, merlot, monastrell (also known as mourvedre), pinot noir, riesling, sauvignon blanc, syrah and ugni blanc.

For the 11 varieties, the team used vintner and researcher archives to build a model for when each would bud, flower, and ripen in wine-growing regions around the world under three different warming scenarios: 0, 2, and 4 degrees of warming. Then they used climate change projections to see where those varieties would be viable in the future.

Losses were unavoidable in both warming scenarios, due to shifting temperatures and seasonal changes that would affect conditions while the varieties were ripening. These factors would affect the wines’ quality. But the team found that “by switching these varieties around, you can reduce losses by a significant amount,” said Cook.

With 2 degrees of global warming and no attempts at adaptation, 56 percent of the world’s wine-growing areas may no longer be suitable for growing wine. But if wine growers switch to varieties more suitable for the changing climate, only 24 percent would be lost. For example, in France’s Burgundy region, heat-loving mourvedre and grenache could replace current varieties such as pinot noir. In Bordeaux, cabernet sauvignon and merlot could be replaced with mourvedre.

The scientists say that cooler wine-growing regions such as Germany, New Zealand and the U.S. Pacific Northwest would be relatively unscathed in the 2°C scenario. These areas could become suitable for warmer varieties like merlot and grenache, while varieties that prefer cooler temperatures, such as pinot noir, could expand northward into regions that are not currently suitable for growing wine.

Wine-growing regions that are already hot now — such as Italy, Spain, and Australia — faced the largest losses, because they are already limited to planting the warmest varieties.

The variety-swapping was less effective at higher amounts of global warming. With 4 degrees of warming, planting climate-specific varieties reduced losses from 85 to 58 percent, or approximately a third.

Switching wine grape varieties could come with significant  — but not insurmountable  — legal, cultural, and financial challenges. “Conversations in Europe have already begun about new legislation to make it easier for major regions to change the varieties they grow,” said Wolkovich. “But growers still must learn to grow these new varieties. That’s a big hurdle in some regions that have grown the same varieties for hundreds and hundreds of years, and they need consumers who are willing to accept different varieties from their favorite regions.”

The researchers note that management practices like increased irrigation and using shade cloths can also help to protect grapevines, but only at lower levels of warming.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of any strategy depends on growers having the options and resources to adapt at a local scale, and on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting warming globally, the authors say.

“The key is that there are still opportunities to adapt viticulture to a warmer world,” said Cook. “It just requires taking the problem of climate change seriously.”

Other authors on the paper include: Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri and Thierry Lacombe of the Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; Amber Parker of Lincoln University, New Zealand; Cornelis van Leeuwen of Bordeaux Sciences Agro; and Kimberly A. Nicholas of Lund University.

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Yes, because wine grapes are an essential part of the lives of the hundreds of millions of poor people throughout the world. SMFH!

Since you didn’t read the article, here’s why it’s relevant for the lives of people who don’t drink wine: “Scientists have long suspected that crop diversity is key to making agriculture more resilient to climate change, and wine grapes offer a unique opportunity to test this assumption. … Their findings may help other areas of agriculture adapt to a warming world.”

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How Climate Change Impacts Wine

By Eric Asimov Oct. 14, 2019

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Climate change will inevitably transform the way the world produces goods.

Farmers who produce wine grapes, an especially sensitive crop, are already feeling those effects.

Wine, which is among the most sensitive and nuanced of agricultural products, demonstrates how climate change is transforming traditions and practices that may be centuries old.

Around the wine-growing world, smart producers have contemplated and experimented with adaptations, not only to hotter summers, but also to warmer winters, droughts and the sort of unexpected, sometimes violent events that stem from climate change: freak hailstorms, spring frosts, flooding and forest fires, just to name a few.

Farmers have been on the front line, and grape growers especially have been noting profound changes in weather patterns since the 1990s. In the short term, some of these changes have actually benefited certain regions.

Places, like England, that were historically unsuited for producing fine wine have been given the opportunity to join the global wine world, transforming local economies in the process.

In areas like Burgundy, Barolo, Champagne and the Mosel and Rhine Valleys of Germany, where great vintages were once rare, warmer growing seasons have made it far easier to produce consistently exceptional wines. This run of prosperity has sent land values (and wine prices) soaring, and it has turned farmers and winemakers into global superstars.

Even with such success, the character of these wines has evolved in part because of the changing climate — in some cases subtly, in others deeply.

And more disruptions are coming, much faster than anybody expected. The accelerating effects of climate change are forcing the wine industry, especially those who see wine as an agricultural product rather than an industrial beverage, to take decisive steps to counter or adapt to the shifts.

So far, these efforts are focused on five factors that are inherently crucial to growing and producing wine.

1. The Wine Map Is Expanding

Winemakers are growing grapes in places once considered too cold for fine wines.

Historically, many great wines have been made along the ragged edge of the possible. Grapevines seem to thrive where they are most challenged, whether in poor soils that force roots to plunge deeply to find moisture or in marginal climates where they must struggle to ripen.

For some of the world’s best-known grapes, including pinot noir, chardonnay, nebbiolo and riesling, these borderline environments permit a combination of low yields and phenolic ripeness, in which sugar, acid and tannins are in balance for producing thrilling wine.

Conversely, if these grapes are planted in overly fertile soils in warm climates, the wines they make will seem dull and flabby, with little of the character and nuance that has made them so prized.

As the climate has warmed, regions that were once considered too cold are now demonstrating that they, too, can produce fine wine, as long as the other elements are in order. In pursuit of the best sites, wine producers are moving north in the Northern Hemisphere, and south in the Southern.

England is a perfect example. Thirty years ago, nobody had ever heard of English sparkling wine. But as the climate has warmed, a world-class sparkling wine industry has developed, with new vineyards being planted at a dizzying pace, primarily along the southern coast.

From Kent in the east through East and West Sussex, Hampshire, Dorset and as far west as Cornwall, fine sparkling wines are being made, produced by the same method as Champagne, but with their own character.

Many of the best vineyards are planted in chalky white soils that are geologically identical to the most prized soils of the Champagne region of France. Those soils have been in England for eons. But until recently, the climate was too cold. Now, Champagne companies like Taittinger and Vranken-Pommery Monopole have invested in English vineyards, hedging their bets as the once-marginal climate in Champagne has warmed.

It’s not only England. Vineyards have been planted in Belgium, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, some with hybrid grape varieties bred specifically for colder weather, but others, like a riesling vineyard in Norway, with vinifera grapes, the species that accounts for all the classic European varieties. Grapes for fine wines are now being grown in northern Germany, and in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and British Columbia.

In the Southern Hemisphere, growers are pushing south, deep into Patagonia in Argentina and Chile. Some of the plantings are now experimental, but in coming years, expect to see these areas more deeply explored.

2. Winemakers Are Seeking Higher Ground

Producers are now planting vineyards at altitudes once considered inhospitable to growing wine grapes.

No hard-and-fast rules limit the altitude at which grapes can be planted. It depends on a region’s climate, the quality of the light, access to water and the nature of the grapes. But clearly, as the earth has warmed, vineyards are moving higher.

In response to climate change, Familia Torres , a global wine producer based in the Catalonia region of Spain, has planted vineyards at altitudes of 3,000 to 4,000 feet in the foothills of the Pyrenees.

“Twenty-five years ago, it would have been impossible,” Miguel Torres Maczassek, the general manager, told me in May.

At higher elevations, peak temperatures are not necessarily much cooler, but intense heat lasts for shorter periods, and nighttime temperatures are colder than at lower altitudes. This increased diurnal shift — the temperature swing over the course of a day — helps grapes to ripen at a more even pace, over a longer period of time, than where temperatures remain relatively stable.

But pushing altitudes also creates challenges. Soils, particularly on slopes, are generally poorer, water is scarcer and unexpected weather events like frosts and hailstorms are always a threat.

How high is high? It depends on the region. In the 1990s, Nicolás Catena Zapata of Catena Zapata in Argentina pioneered high-altitude vineyards in the area, planting at nearly 5,000 feet the Adrianna Vineyard, in the foothills of the Andes.

His move was not a direct reaction to climate change, but an effort to find better terroirs for making more complex wines. The vineyard’s success encouraged other high-altitude plantings, which in turn suggested one possible response to the warming climate.

Today, vineyards in the regions of Salta and Jujuy in northern Argentina are at altitudes of 5,000 to 11,000 feet, among the highest vineyards in the world. In the Walla Walla Valley of Washington State, growers are experimenting at 3,000 feet, higher than ever in the region.

Some long-established vineyard areas, once not well regarded because of their relatively high altitudes, are also looking better because of climate change.

The Hautes-Côtes regions of Burgundy, for example, divided between the Côte de Beaune and the Côte de Nuits in the heart of Burgundy, were not thought to have great potential because they are situated at the top of Burgundy’s slope, about 1,200 to 1,300 feet up.

At that height, the grapes ripened a week or two behind those planted in the choicer areas. Sometimes it was too late, and the grapes would not ripen fully. Even in the best years, the wines were lighter and thinner.

Now, the grapes are ripening more consistently, and the wines have gotten better and better.

3. Growers Are Curtailing Sunlight

For centuries, a formula governed the placement of some of the world’s greatest vineyards in the Northern Hemisphere. They would be planted on hillsides, with suitable soils, facing south or southeast, where they would receive the most sun and warmth, allowing grapes to fully ripen.

This was true whether in the Douro Valley of Portugal, the Mosel or Rhine Valleys of Germany, the northern Rhône Valley of France, in Burgundy or in Barolo. As areas in the Southern Hemisphere were planted with grapes, the reverse was true: North-facing slopes were most in demand.

As the climate has changed, however, the problem for wine producers is no longer how to ripen grapes fully but how to prevent overripening. This has caused many growers to reorient their thinking.

In the Yarra Valley of Australia, growers are rethinking the conventional wisdom of seeking north-facing vineyards. Mac Forbes, an exceptional grower and winemaker, signed a lease in 2017 for about 10 acres facing south. There, in Don Valley , he planted chenin blanc, pinot noir and nebbiolo, all of which benefit from a relatively cool climate.

In the Douro Valley, south-facing vineyards, particularly at lower altitudes, are still prized for port, which requires very ripe grapes. But to make the sort of fresh, unfortified reds and whites for which demand is growing worldwide, winemakers are looking for vineyards that face north , as well as those at higher elevations.

All around the wine-producing world, particularly in places like California, where the status of vineyard areas has not been rigidly defined by history, growers are operating according to this new logic borne of climate change.

On a more granular level, that logic also affects how rows of vines are oriented. In new plantings, growers take great pains where possible to protect grapes from the afternoon sun, when the heat and light are at their most intense.

4. Regions Are Considering Different Grapes

For many producers, particularly small family estates or those in historic appellations, new vineyards in cooler environments are not an option. Instead, they must consider whether to change the essence of what they have been doing, in some cases for centuries.

That might mean leaving behind the grapes that have long been associated with their region, and selecting ones more appropriate for the changing climate.

It may seem impossible to imagine Bordeaux without cabernet sauvignon and merlot, or Champagne without pinot noir and chardonnay, but the prospect of a much warmer future may require even the most famous wine regions to rethink their methods.

This is already happening experimentally in Bordeaux and Napa Valley, two prestigious regions closely associated with cabernet sauvignon. In Bordeaux, where producers may use only grapes that are permitted by the appellation authorities, seven additional grapes have been selected for experiments to determine whether they can be used to mitigate the effects of climate change.

They include four red grapes, touriga nacional, a leading grape of port; marselan, a cross between cabernet sauvignon and grenache; castets, an almost forgotten variety that is resistant to certain diseases; and arinarnoa, a cross between cabernet and tannat that is late- ripening, which may protect against spring frosts.

The three whites include albariño, the main white grape of northwestern Spain, which may be a good alternative to sauvignon blanc; petit manseng, from southwestern France, which, like sémillon, can make both dry and sweet wines; and liliorila, a little-known cross between chardonnay and the obscure baroque that is highly aromatic.

The authorities will carefully monitor these grapes; for now, small percentages of them will be permitted in the Bordeaux and Bordeaux Supérieur appellations, but not in highly esteemed appellations like St.-Julien or Margaux.

No such restrictions exist in Napa Valley, where it is largely up to individual producers to decide what they grow and how they make their wines. But some producers, like Larkmead and Spottswoode, are already imagining a future in which cabernet sauvignon may not be the centerpiece of their wines.

At Larkmead, Dan Petroski, the winemaker, has started an experiment to test some possible alternatives over the next 21 years, including familiar California varieties like zinfandel, petite sirah and charbono, as well as grapes from warm European regions, like touriga nacional, tempranillo from Spain and aglianico from southern Italy.

Expect to hear of more experiments in many other regions.

5. Weather Is No Longer As Predictable

For farmers, and especially grape growers, experience counts for an awful lot. No two years are identical, but over time they will have seen many different weather events and learned how to respond in most cases. Meticulous records over decades, even centuries, can be a big help.

While weather always surprises, experienced farmers generally knew what to expect. With climate change, that is no longer true.

“It hails when it never used to hail, rains in the summer when it used to be dry, is dry in the winter when it used to rain,” Gaia Gaja of the Gaja Winery, which has made wine in Barbaresco and Barolo for generations, told me in April. She said the increased moisture in summer has caused vine pests to reproduce faster, with four cycles a year rather than two.

Forest fires, floods, droughts — wine regions will have to learn how to deal regularly with these once-rare devastations.

In California and Australia, where access to enough water can no longer be taken for granted, growers must consider either grafting their familiar grapevines onto drought-resistant rootstocks , or selecting other grape varieties.

Drought goes hand in hand with forest fires, or bush fires, as they are called in Australia. Institutions there have led the way in researching how smoke from fires can taint grapes and wine, and in finding technological solutions that will at least render such wines drinkable.

In Burgundy, the Côte de Beaune region, which has had several disastrous recent vintages because of hail, has installed a system that tries to prevent the formation of hailstones by shooting particles of heated silver iodide at storm clouds. If that method fails, farmers may also put up bird netting in an effort to protect their vines.

Viticulture by its nature is complicated. As the world’s climates are transformed, it is only becoming more so.

This is the first of a four-part series on winemaking and climate change.

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On Winemaking: Vitis What?! Making Wine With Hybrid Grapes

words: Laura Burgess

It might seem rude or snobbish to say, but not all grapes are created equal. It’s that simple.

When it comes to wine, it’s been that black and white for the past hundred years. In short, native American grapes and hybrid American-Euro vines — varieties like Concord, Frontenac, and Vidal Blanc — are just not good enough for wine. Or at least not fine wine. But that could be changing.

Now, a few wineries — mostly in regions hoping to take on the California wine machine — are trying to change that widely held opinion, by focusing on the values of nontraditional grape varieties instead of crafting yet another tropically scented Sauvignon Blanc or full-bodied Cabernet Sauvignon .

The familiar grape names on bottles such as Cabernet, Merlot, and Chardonnay are all European varieties, brought to the U.S. generations ago to allow an American wine market to thrive. This is because indigenous American varieties didn’t make great wine in colonial times, and early Americans were thirsty.

The aforementioned sub-par grapes, called hybrids as a group, originated as a backlash to sensitive vinifera vines that required specific weather and soil conditions to flourish. These grapes cross vinifera species with other native American grapevines like vitis labrusca and vitis riparia. Originally, these crosses developed first as a response to diseases like phylloxera that ravaged vinifera vines in the 1800s. As technology and science continued to advance, breeds were developed more and more specifically to combat other weaknesses of traditional wine vines, like resistance to rot, mildew, or cold temperatures. In humid locations like the Southeast and frigid climates like that of Minnesota, hybrids are the only way to grow grapes.

Overall, hybrids represent hundreds of grape varieties, with more being developed every year. Universities like UC Davis and Cornell have entire departments dedicated to producing new grapes that produce desirable qualities. This isn’t GMO-type science; it’s simple cross-breeding which also happens in nature. For example, the dark and cold-hardy Frontenac grape was developed at the University of Minnesota by crossing vitis riparia with Landot Noir, another hybrid. Then, Frontenac mutated on its own, creating Frontenac Gris, a cold-hardy, easy ripening white grape. Like vinifera grapes, hybrids as a whole encompass an incredible amount of variety and no two species react to elements like temperature and soil in the same way, but they do present opportunity for both diversity in the fields and in finished wines.

Traditionally, the case against hybrids in winegrowing and vinification has been a lack of complex flavors or inherent off-flavors (like stale potpourri, or a strange earthiness). Often, these high-yielding hybrids were used in bulk swill or for brandy production, another factor leading to their less-than-stellar reputation.

Today, with growth in wine-related tourism exploding and wine sales in general climbing, regions once better known for mountains or gambling are dabbling in winemaking more than ever. Many hope to change the reputation of hybrids with consumers and industry pros.

At Burntshirt Vineyards and winery, a sprawling estate in BBQ-heavy North Carolina just outside Asheville, consumer opinions generally aren’t the problem, according to associate winemaker Preston Thomas. “Our customers are very interested in hybrid varietals and why we use them,” he says. “My favorite thing to do is pour them Vidal Blanc without telling them what it is and then observe their reaction when I tell them it’s a hybrid!”

In most locales like Burntshirt, hybrids offer the opportunity to grow wines in an otherwise unfavorable climate. “Even though vinifera grapes can grow well, we use hybrids because they withstand the humidity of western North Carolina a bit better, and are thus more reliable year to year,” explains Thomas, who adds that the hybrids they cultivate — like Vidal Blanc and Chambourcin — often offer intense aromatics or a deeper color than many vinifera species.

“Hybrids don’t simply equate to poor quality in the vineyard or the winery,” he says. Thomas is a rare West Coast winemaker who now uses vinifera and hybrids side by side at Burntshirt, where hybrids are used as blending agents and in varietally-labelled bottles.

Across the country, in Nevada, the University of Nevada at Reno is developing an oenology program that will run alongside its well-established agriculture school and feature a wealth of hybrid vines in its nursery. In the Silver State, resistance to frigid winter temperatures rather than humidity is what makes hybrids appealing.

Wade Johnston of Basin and Range winery, believes that hybrids can produce wines just as good as those from vinifera varieties if they’re treated with the same care. “We’re really excited to be vinifying the hybrids from our vineyard,” he says. “Yes, they have their own challenges, but they’re good wine grapes if you grow them right.”

But how do they taste? My hybrid grape experience has been limited to a handful of sub-$15 samples — hardly a well-balanced example of their potential. Often incredibly aromatic and off-dry, they’ve all been intriguing, if not worthy of a five-star review.

While most Napa and European vintners won’t be giving up their prized vinifera plantings, hybrids could offer options to vintners as climate change intensifies and vines need to be more resistant to intense weather. The rapid end to California’s drought and flooding in early 2017 showcased just how sensitive many vineyards are.

These vintners are unlocking the possibility of new grapes and new wine regions every vintage, and their explorations provide more insight than any university-led laboratory study. Will grapes like Briana and Traminette start taking up more shelf space that Pinot Noir? Only time and a lot more tasting will tell. One thing is for sure — they’re worth a sip.

Published: August 13, 2017

• On Winemaking: Vitis What?! Making Wine With Hybrid Grapes | VinePair
• https://vinepair.com/articles/vitis-labrusca-vinifera-hybrids/
• wbs_cat Wine, grapes, hybrid grapes, winemaking
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• Review Article
• Published: 26 March 2024

Climate change impacts and adaptations of wine production

• Cornelis van Leeuwen   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9428-0167 1 ,
• Giovanni Sgubin 2 , 3 ,
• Benjamin Bois   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7114-2071 4 ,
• Nathalie Ollat 1 ,
• Didier Swingedouw   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0583-0850 2 ,
• Sébastien Zito 1 &
• Gregory A. Gambetta   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8838-5050 1  

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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Climate change is affecting grape yield, composition and wine quality. As a result, the geography of wine production is changing. In this Review, we discuss the consequences of changing temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation and CO 2 on global wine production and explore adaptation strategies. Current winegrowing regions are primarily located at mid-latitudes (California, USA; southern France; northern Spain and Italy; Barossa, Australia; Stellenbosch, South Africa; and Mendoza, Argentina, among others), where the climate is warm enough to allow grape ripening, but without excessive heat, and relatively dry to avoid strong disease pressure. About 90% of traditional wine regions in coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and southern California could be at risk of disappearing by the end of the century because of excessive drought and more frequent heatwaves with climate change. Warmer temperatures might increase suitability for other regions (Washington State, Oregon, Tasmania, northern France) and are driving the emergence of new wine regions, like the southern United Kingdom. The degree of these changes in suitability strongly depends on the level of temperature rise. Existing producers can adapt to a certain level of warming by changing plant material (varieties and rootstocks), training systems and vineyard management. However, these adaptations might not be enough to maintain economically viable wine production in all areas. Future research should aim to assess the economic impact of climate change adaptation strategies applied at large scale.

Climate change modifies wine production conditions and requires adaptation from growers.

The suitability of current winegrowing areas is changing, and there will be winners and losers. New winegrowing regions will appear in previously unsuitable areas, including expanding into upslope regions and natural areas, raising issues for environmental preservation.

Higher temperatures advance phenology (major stages in the growing cycle), shifting grape ripening to a warmer part of the summer. In most winegrowing regions around the globe, grape harvests have advanced by 2–3 weeks over the past 40 years. The resulting modifications in grape composition at harvest change wine quality and style.

Changing plant material and cultivation techniques that retard maturity are effective adaptation strategies to higher temperatures until a certain level of warming.

Increased drought reduces yield and can result in sustainability losses. The use of drought-resistant plant material and the adoption of different training systems are effective adaptation strategies to deal with declining water availability. Supplementary irrigation is also an option when sustainable freshwater resources are available.

The emergence of new pests and diseases and the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall and possibly hail, also challenge wine production in some regions. In contrast, other areas might benefit from reduced pest and disease pressure.

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Introduction

Grapes are the world’s third most valuable horticultural crop, after potatoes and tomatoes, counting for a farm-gate value of US$68 billion in 2016 ref. 1 . Global production in 2020 was 80 million tonnes of grapes, harvested from 7.4 million hectares 2 . Of the produced grapes, 49% were transformed into wine and spirits, while 43% were consumed as fresh grapes and 8% as raisins. Wine, as a commodity, can be valued over a price range from US$3 to over US$1,000 per bottle, depending on quality and reputation 3 . Hence, financial sustainability does not only rely on the balance between yield and production costs, as for most agricultural products, but also on quality and reputation. The region of production is a major driver of reputation and value 4 . This regional variation in wine quality is not surprising, because the climate, or more precisely the ‘right variety in the right climate’, is a well-identified attribute of premium wine production 3 . The effect of climate conditions on grape composition at harvest (and thus, wine composition and quality) seems to be even more important than the soil type 5 .

With climate change, this fundamental regional influence on wine quality and style is changing 6 . For example, a substantial advance in harvest dates and/or an increase in wine alcohol level have already been observed in many regions such as Bordeaux and Alsace (France) 7 , 8 , 9 . The suitability for wine production in established winegrowing regions is likely to change during the twenty-first century 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 . Pressures from temperature rise and drought could challenge production in already hot and dry regions to the point where suitability will be lost, with enormous negative social and economic consequences. Mid-latitude wine regions could be increasingly exposed to spring frost events, owing to earlier budburst 14 , 15 . Projected increased hailstorm severity can result in crop and plant damage 16 . However, some of these projections are overly pessimistic, because they do not take into account the possibility for growers to adapt to the changing conditions 17 . For example, major technical levers for adaptation include changes in plant material, training systems and/or seasonal management practices 18 , 19 , 20 .

In addition, new winegrowing regions could emerge in previously unsuitable areas, as cool and subhumid climates see increasing temperatures, creating economic opportunities but also threatening wild habitats when these emerging regions do not result from converted farmland 10 . If these new vineyards are irrigated, this will increase competition for freshwater resources. Even converting existing farmland to winegrowing means less arable land dedicated to food production.

In this Review, we synthesize climate change effects on viticulture and wine production. Many articles have been published on regional impacts of climate change on wine production, and our aim is to assemble these results to produce a global picture of the changing geography of wine. We discuss the impacts of changing temperature, radiation, water availability, pests and diseases, and CO 2 on viticulture and wine. Potential adaptation measures and their limits are discussed, for example, existing producers can adapt to a certain level of warming by changing plant material (varieties and rootstocks), training systems and vineyard management. However, these adaptations might not be enough to maintain economically viable wine production in all areas. Finally, implications of viticultural expansion are discussed and compared with historical shifts in production.

Shifting geographies of wine production

Wine grapes are cultivated from the tropics to Scandinavia 21 , 22 and can be grown at elevations of over 3,000 m 23 , revealing the remarkable adaptability of grapevine to a wide range of climate conditions. Vineyard management aims at locally adapting vine cultivation to match terrain, soil and climate conditions. In cool and subhumid environments, such as vineyards in northwestern Europe, important climate-related challenges are grapevine diseases and difficulties in obtaining fully mature fruit. Hence, vineyards are commonly planted on slopes to optimize light interception and runoff, on shallow soils to promote mild water deficits that enhance ripening, with early ripening grapevine cultivars, and using training systems that maximize exposed leaf areas per unit of ground surface 24 . In such regions, the impacts of climate change are predominantly positive, as warmer conditions and higher evaporative demand make it easier for grapes to ripen 25 and limit disease-triggering humidity. In drier and warmer regions, the main challenge is plant water availability. Adaptation to water scarcity depends on local practices, favouring either irrigation or systems that use low water consumption, such as cultivation of drought-resistant varieties cropped as bushvines and/or at low planting density (number of vines per hectare). In warm and dry regions, climate change is a threat requiring immediate adaptations because of excessively high temperatures 26 and increased water scarcity 27 .

Climate change is having a growing impact on the wine industry, potentially altering the geography of high-quality wine production. After segmenting each continent and its wine-producing areas into macro-regions defined by specific climate-driven conditions (see Supplementary note and Supplementary Table  1 for definitions), we estimate a substantial risk of unsuitability (ranging from moderate to high) for 49–70% of existing wine regions, contingent on the degree of global warming (Fig.  1 ). Simultaneously, 11–25% of existing wine regions might experience enhanced production with rising temperatures, and new suitable areas might emerge at higher latitudes and altitudes (Fig.  1 ). These assessments on the future risks and opportunities for wine production worldwide are based on an exhaustive literature review (see Supplementary Table  2 ) and exhibit specific features across continents.

a – f , Current suitability across continental regions is noted by the green shading of the hexagons, from less suitable (light green) to more suitable (darker green), for North America (panel a ), South America (panel b ), Europe (panel c ), Africa (panel d ), Asia (panel e ) and Oceania (panel f ). This current suitability was based on the actual production area and on published studies (see Supplementary information ). Future suitability change in these regions is noted by the colour of the dots within the hexagons according to the key; the left dot represents the change for a scenario in which there is global warming (GW) of up to 2 °C and the right dot the change for warming of 2-4 °C. The size of the dot represents the confidence of the assessment (the larger the dot, the higher the confidence). The potential suitability of emerging wine regions is noted by hexagons that are shaded purple, from less (light purple) to more (darker purple) potential suitability based on consensus from the literature. The methodology to produce the maps is explained in the  Supplementary information . The acronyms of all regions delimited by hexagons are provided in Supplementary Table  1 , and references used for the assessments are available in Supplementary Table  2 . Out of the 73 globally identified traditional wine-producing regions, an assessment on future climate suitability was feasible for 72: for global warming below (above) 2 °C, 18 (8) show improved suitability, 19 (13) show a slight risk of suitability loss, 34 (30) a moderate risk of suitability loss and 1 (21) a high risk of suitability loss. Simultaneously, 26 new potential emerging wine regions have been identified.

North America

Currently, most of the wine production in North America (10% of global wine production 2 ) is concentrated on the west coast 28 , particularly in northern California, including Napa Valley, which stands out both in terms of production and value (Fig.  1a ). Moderate levels of global warming are projected to maintain the suitability of coastal regions of California for high-quality wine production 10 , 29 . However, winemakers in this region will face increasing risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, necessitating the proactive adoption of adaptation measures 30 . If global warming exceeds 2 °C, coastal California will transition to a very warm and arid climate for viticulture, probably resulting in a decline in wine quality and economic sustainability 12 , 26 . The interior regions of California might experience this decline earlier and will need to adopt more radical adaptation measures even below 2 °C of global warming 31 . The southern part of California, already characterized by a warm and dry climate, is expected to become unsuitable for high-quality wine production under global warming scenarios exceeding 2 °C 10 , 12 . Overall, the net suitable area for wine production in California could decline by up to 50% by the end of the twenty-first century 12 . Similar risks exist for Mexico, the southwestern United States and those regions of the east coast south of New Jersey 10 . The northernmost wine regions of America (that is, New British Columbia, Washington State, Oregon on the west coast, Great Lakes region and New England on the east coast) are likely to shift from cool to intermediate, or even warm, climate viticulture in the future, thus increasing their potential for premium wine production 10 , 12 , 29 , 32 . However, global warming surpassing 2 °C is likely to result in antagonistic effects. On one hand, it can enhance climate suitability, with suitable areas in these regions (excluding Oregon) probably more than doubling 10 , 12 . On the other hand, it would introduce unprecedented risks of heatwaves and increased disease pressure 26 , 33 , particularly considering that these regions are predominantly classified as humid.

South America

Current wine production in South America (10% of global wine production 2 ) is primarily concentrated in the middle to high altitudes of Chile and Argentina, benefiting from favourable temperatures and sunlight along the foothills of the Andes Mountains (Fig.  1b ). Given the extensive irrigation already adopted over the driest wine regions, such as Mendoza, projections in precipitation over traditional South American vineyards do not indicate substantial changes in suitability 34 . Consequently, the future suitability in these regions will be primarily dependent on temperature increase, ground and surface water availability 35 , and the frequency of extreme events. For a limited level of warming, the Pacific sector of South America is expected to experience a low risk of suitability loss, but this risk increases for the Atlantic regions such as Brazil and Uruguay. Cool-climate winegrowing regions, such as the Pampa region, might be improved under these conditions 34 , 36 . For more severe warming, the resilience of the northern Argentinian wine regions might require a shift from lowlands to higher slopes of the Andes 34 , 36 , while the Atlantic sector will offer poor opportunities for winemaking 10 , 12 . Expanding into newly suitable areas could imply movement southward into Argentinian Patagonia 34 , 36 or potentially an exploration of the high altitudes of the Ecuadorian and Colombian Andes 10 , 12 . In general, the projected decrease in suitable areas in the Pacific South America will probably be balanced by the potential emergence of new suitable areas 10 , 12 .

Europe is recognized as the primary producer of premium wine worldwide, with a substantial production located south of approximately 50° N. Spain, France, Italy and Germany collectively contribute to half of global wine production 2 (Fig.  1c ). However, climate change is expected to shift suitable regions towards higher latitudes and altitudes 10 , 12 . Under low levels of global warming (<2 °C), most traditional wine-producing regions will maintain suitability, albeit contingent on the implementation of adaptation measures, notably in southern Europe 13 . The combination of rising temperatures and reduced rainfall will induce severe risk of drought over south Iberia, Mediterranean France and Spain, the Po Valley, coastal Italy, the Balkan Peninsula and the southwestern Black Sea regions 13 , 27 , 37 , 38 . The risk of widespread water scarcity might render unsustainable any extensive increase in irrigation intended to preserve the suitability of these areas. Moreover, warmer conditions and increased sunburn exposure will negatively affect both yield and wine quality in these areas. For more severe warming scenarios, most Mediterranean regions might become climatically unsuitable for wine production, and vineyards below 45° N might be so challenged that the only feasible adaptation would be to relocate to higher altitudes 11 , 13 , 39 , 40 , 41 . About 90% of the traditional wine regions situated in the lowlands and coastal regions of Spain, Italy and Greece could be at risk of disappearing by the end of the century 12 . Only a minor portion of this loss (less than 20%) can be potentially compensated for by shifting vineyards towards mountainous areas, considering elevations of up to 1,000 m 11 , 42 .

Atlantic sectors of Iberia and France, along with the western Black Sea regions, will face lower risks than the Mediterranean 13 , 43 , 44 , 45 . With limited global warming, the implementation of viticultural techniques that delay ripening and alleviate water stress seem sufficient to preserve high-quality wine production 46 . More severe warming scenarios are likely to necessitate the transition to later-ripening grape varieties in these regions 12 , 13 . Conversely, Galicia, the northern Balkans, and in general areas north of 46° N are expected to benefit from global warming, at least for limited levels of temperature increase 10 , 13 , 27 . Over certain regions, early budburst might lead to an increased risk from spring frost 14 , 18 , 47 . Overall, the suitable surface area of traditional wine-producing regions is expected to decline by 20–70% by the end of the century, depending on the severity of the warming scenario 13 . Simultaneously, new wine regions are expected to expand northward, notably along the Atlantic sector 10 , 11 , 12 , 14 , 27 , resulting in a net increase of climatically suitable areas in Europe by up to 60% 13 . However, such an expansion is purely theoretical and pertains solely to climate conditions, without considering soil quality, pre-existing land use and other crucial factors for establishing new vineyards.

Africa has a relatively low level of wine production (3.8% of global wine production 2 ), with South Africa being the primary producer, while other countries such as Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria (Fig.  1d ) have a much smaller scale of production 2 . The scientific literature on future wine production in South Africa is limited, resulting in a low-confidence assessment of a moderate risk of suitability loss in both the more productive western region and the eastern region 10 , 12 . In contrast, a richer body of literature focused on the Mediterranean basin, considering different levels of global warming, indicates a moderate-to-high risk of suitability loss in the Maghreb region 27 , 48 , whose possibility of future wine production presupposes the movement to higher altitudes, for example the Atlas Mountains. Potential emerging wine regions in Africa include the highlands of Kenya and notably the highlands of Ethiopia, where the wine industry is in its early stage of development 10 , 12 .

The main winemaking regions in Asia (about 3.5% of global wine production 2 ) include the Caucasus and China (Fig.  1e ). The assessment of future Asian climate suitability for wine production is uncertain owing to limited studies, especially for Xinjiang, one of the major wine-producing regions of the continent. The inland Chinese regions (for example Ningxia), characterized by a mountain climate, might benefit from warming below 2 °C, expanding suitable areas 12 , 49 . However, further warming could render parts of this region substantially warmer and more arid, posing challenges for premium wine production 12 , 49 . The Caucasian and eastern Asian regions will face low-to-moderate risks of unsuitability depending on warming levels 10 , 12 , 41 , and this risk is higher for the arid areas of Middle East and Central Asia, possibly leading to completely unsuitable conditions for temperature increases above 2 °C 12 . Emerging regions such as the northeastern Black Sea coasts, eastern Anatolia and Pamir–Himalayan Mountains show potential for future wine production 10 , 12 .

Projected climate change in Oceania (6% of global wine production 2 ) will lead to overall warmer and drier conditions, making those regions that are already relatively warm and arid the most vulnerable (Fig.  1f ). Although limited global warming (<2 °C) will generally bring better temperature conditions to southern regions, a moderate risk of suitability loss is expected in the inner region of New South Wales 50 , 51 . This risk remains low in the rest of mainland Australia and northern New Zealand 52 . If global temperatures rise above 2 °C, the risk of suitability loss will substantially increase, and the traditional inland regions of Australia might become unsuitable 52 . Conversely, Tasmania and southern New Zealand will benefit from limited warming, which might offer more favourable conditions for premium wine production. Tasmania, in particular, shows higher potential for premium wine production in both moderate and more severe warming scenarios 10 , 51 , 52 , while New Zealand’s high-quality production can probably be ensured through management adaptation alone 12 , 53 . Overall, depending on the degree of global warming, up to 65% of the traditional Australian vineyards might become climatically unsuitable, whereas wine-producing regions in New Zealand have the potential to expand by 15–60% by the end of the century 12 .

In summary, on a global scale, approximately 25% of current wine regions might benefit from a temperature increase capped at 2 °C, and around 26% are likely to maintain their current suitability with proper management practices. This implies that global warming levels below 2 °C can be deemed a safe threshold for over half of traditional vineyards. Conversely, for temperature increases beyond 2 °C, 70% of existing winemaking regions might face substantial risks of suitability loss. Specifically, 29% might experience too extreme climate conditions, preventing premium wine production, while the future of the remaining 41% will hinge on the effective feasibility of effective adaptation measures. Further investigation in this direction is warranted to assess the environmental and economic impact of these potential strategies.

Adapting to a hotter and drier future

To maintain environmentally sustainable viticulture — that is, the production of wines with marketable quality and yield levels assuring profitable operations — adaptation is mandatory. Growers can adapt through the choice of plant material (rootstocks and varieties) or by modifying training systems and vineyard management practices. Adaptation to warmer temperatures and increased drought should be considered separately (Fig.  2 ). However, Mediterranean summer conditions with combined stresses, such as extreme temperatures, high radiation levels, strong winds, and long periods of water deficit combined with mineral stresses, are more likely to occur in the future, with non-additive and more deleterious effects than each stress taken separately 54 , 55 .

The timing of phenology is key in the production of high-quality wines. When the end of the ripening period takes place in September (March in the Southern Hemisphere), temperatures are high enough to ensure full ripeness of the grapes, but generally without excessive heat 3 . Increased temperatures under climate change advance the end of the ripening period to July or August (January or February in the Southern Hemisphere) when excessive heat can impair grape quality potential and threaten yields. Adaptive measures aim at retarding the ripening period to later in the season when temperatures are cooler. These include changes in plant material, training systems and management practices. Also, different means to obtain a cooler microclimate in the bunch zones are effective adaptations to a warmer climate. Hence, grape growers should avoid as much as possible the advancement of the ripening period.

Increased temperatures

Wine quality is very sensitive to temperature during grape ripening 9 , 56 . When temperatures are too low, wines tend to exhibit a green and acidic profile. Conversely, when temperatures are too high, wines possess high alcohol and low acidity levels, featuring cooked fruit aromas rather than fresh fruit aromas 57 . By choosing grape varieties in relation to local climate (for example early-ripening varieties in cool climates and late-ripening varieties in warm climates), ripening under ideal temperatures can be achieved under a wide range of climate conditions 3 . As a result, under current climate conditions, optimal harvests take place in September to early October in the Northern Hemisphere (March or early April in the Southern Hemisphere) in most renowned wine regions, when temperatures are neither too low nor too high.

Phenology is considered one of the most robust biological indicators of ongoing climate change 58 , and for grapevine many long-term records of major phenological stages exist (for example records of budbreak, flowering and veraison — the colour change of grape berries that marks the onset of ripening). These records almost universally indicate advanced phenology for the grapevine due to higher temperatures, in particular since the late 1980s 7 , 8 , 19 , 59 . For example, both budbreak and flowering advanced by 15 days in Alsace (France) during the period 1965 to 2003, meaning that the length of the period between budbreak and flowering remained the same 7 . Because the stages have shifted in concert, this advance in phenology could possibly shift flowering to a cooler period of the year when less favourable conditions could reduce yields 60 (Fig.  2 ). In some regions, dormancy release of latent buds might be impaired when autumn and winter temperatures increase, which can delay budbreak 8 . Delayed budbreak, as a result of climate change, is, however, an exception, and the general trend remains advanced budbreak. Harvest date is not a true phenological stage as it is influenced by human perception of desired ripeness level for the intended wine style and might be influenced by disease pressure. Nevertheless, harvest date is still largely linked to climate, and long-term harvest records have been used for climate reconstructions since the fourteenth century 61 , 62 . In most winegrowing regions around the globe, grape harvests have advanced by 2–3 weeks over the past 40 years 19 , 63 , 64 (Fig.  2 ). Earlier phenology means that ripening will occur in a warmer period of the year. Because of this shift in phenology, every 1 °C increase in temperature during the growing season results approximately in 2 °C warmer temperatures during grape ripening 65 .

As a result, wine quality and typicity are changing (Fig.  3 ). Alcohol levels and wine pH are increasing 6 , 19 , while acidity is decreasing 66 , 67 (Fig.  3 ). This decreased acidity induces lower microbiological stability, which can lead to off-flavours like those produced by the wild yeast Brettanomyces bruxellensis 68 (Fig.  3 ). Phenolic compounds, such as tannins, which give the structure to red wine, and anthocyanins, which are responsible for its colour, are reduced in grapes under high temperatures 69 , 70 , 71 . Moreover, sugar and anthocyanin accumulation in grape berries are decoupled under high temperatures, making harvest decisions increasingly difficult 72 .

Climate change (in particular, increased temperatures) might impair wine quality. Major effects of increased temperatures and drought include: a modification of the aroma profile, with more overripe and cooked fruit aromas replacing fresh fruit aromas; excessive alcohol levels; increased pH, resulting in wines with less perceived freshness and increased risk of microbiological spoilage. ABV, alcohol by volume. Credit: right inset, bhofack2/Getty images; left inset, LauriPatterson/Getty images.

The amount of humidity that the air is able to contain increases with temperature 73 . Hence, vapour pressure deficit and reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) increase with temperature. As a result, even if precipitation levels remain unchanged, plant water use will increase with higher temperature, increasing the risk of drought 74 .

Excessive temperatures can negatively affect yield, because of increased competition for carbohydrates during bunch initiation in primary buds 75 , a decrease in the number of flowers per bunch 76 , reduced fecundation 77 , reduced berry size due to limited carbohydrate resources 75 , 78 , or increased drought 79 . However, reduced yields have not been observed for a temperature increase of 2 °C above current temperatures in South Australia 80 .

Plant material choices are a key lever for adapting to increasing temperatures 81 , and the thousands of existing Vitis vinifera varieties display great differences in the timing of their phenology 82 , 83 , 84 . Varieties and clones with a long phenological cycle delay the ripening period to a later period in the season when temperatures are cooler. As a first step, later-ripening clones can be chosen within the existing varieties that are grown in a particular region 19 , 85 . Although the differences in phenology might not be as great, making use of clonal diversity alleviates the need to change varieties. If more phenological diversity is needed, the proportion of late-ripening varieties can be increased. Genetic diversity from niche environments (in particular from the Mediterranean islands, such as Baleares, Cyprus, Cyclades) should be explored to access extremely late-ripening varieties 86 . Later-ripening varieties can also be created through breeding, although simulation using genetic models indicates that even the most ideal late-ripening variety might not ripen late enough in extreme climate change scenarios 87 . The temperature requirements for major phenological stages across varieties are available in the literature 83 , 84 , and these can serve as guidelines for selecting varieties adapted to future climate conditions 88 .

Exposure to direct sunlight increases bunch temperature substantially. As a result, the effect of radiation and temperature are not easy to separate 89 . A potential avenue to adapt to higher temperatures is adopting resilient training systems that prevent grapes from excessive exposure to direct sunlight. These training systems mitigate the heating of bunches to temperatures far above ambient air temperatures, which reduces the risk of sunburn. Examples of such training systems are the traditional goblet bushvine 20 , 90 or more sprawling canopies that shade fruit 91 . Establishing vines with higher trunks increases minimum temperatures, while reducing maximum temperatures in the fruit zone 92 . Elevating the fruit zone has the effect of reducing the exposure of grapes to both spring frost and heatwaves. Minimal pruning delays maturity but increases water use 93 . Applications of chemically inert mineral particles such as zeolite and kaolin can substantially reduce leaf temperature 94 .

Some annual vineyard management practices also have the potential to delay maturity 95 , such as establishing a reduced ratio of leaf area to fruit weight 96 , 97 , or late pruning 98 . Shading nets reduce temperature in the canopy and fruit zone but substantially increase production cost 99 . Simply choosing to harvest earlier (for example by reducing the time from the onset of ripening to harvest) can avoid excessive sugar and alcohol in the resulting wine and can reduce cooked fruit aromas 100 . Finally, when possible, vineyards can be moved to higher altitudes where temperatures are cooler 34 . However, this option might have important environmental impacts 10 , as we discuss in the section on the impact of viticultural expansion.

The quantity and quality of solar radiation influence the morphological development of the grapevine, its physiology, and the production of metabolites that play a key role in wine quality. Managing sunlight interception by leaves, buds, flowers and grapes through planting density, row height and canopy management is crucial to grapevine production 101 . The intensity of photosynthetic activity depends on both temperature and sunlight 102 , and the photosynthesis saturation threshold for light increases with air temperature (optimum between 25 and 30 °C) 103 . Like all plants, grapevine biomass production increases with light availability 104 , except in hot and dry conditions, which can reduce photosynthesis despite non-limiting light conditions 105 . Solar radiation contributes to grape yield as it has a key role in fruitfulness 106 . It also triggers secondary metabolism and favours the production of polyphenols (tannins, anthocyanins) 107 and many aromatic compounds that contribute to wine quality 108 . The role of ultraviolet light needs particular attention, as high-elevation viticulture is developing with climate change. Ultraviolet light decreases photosynthetic activity 109 , increases polyphenols in fruit and can potentially decrease the incidence of some major grapevine diseases 110 , such as grey mould or powdery mildew 111 .

The projected change in incoming solar radiation over wine-producing areas of the world is heterogeneous. By the end of the twenty-first century, solar radiation in Europe and northeastern America might experience a rise of 5–12% 112 , 113 , specifically during summer 114 , whereas little or uncertain change is projected in other major wine-producing regions. In hot winegrowing regions, grape ripening speed and sunburn risks are tempered through training systems that limit grape exposure to sun (for example bushvines, sprawling canopy, pergolas) 20 . Row orientation 115 , shading nets 116 or adjustable above-canopy solar panels 79 are additional strategies to cope with risks related to excessive sunshine (drought, excessive heat, sunburn).

Agricultural droughts — defined as periods of abnormal soil moisture deficit, due to shortage of precipitation and excess evapotranspiration, that affect crop production — are already increasing in a number of regions around the world, partly owing to human-induced climate change 117 . In the future, this observed trend will continue, and soil moisture will strongly decrease in various wine regions (Fig.  4 ). Globally, agricultural droughts might occur 2.4 or 4.1 times more frequently for a 2 °C or 4 °C global warming level, respectively 117 . Europe and most notably the Mediterranean region might be strongly affected by such an increase (Fig.  4c ), given that the frequency and intensity of drought have already substantially increased since the mid-twentieth century in the Mediterranean region 117 .

a – f , Projections for agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) in major current and future winegrowing regions for temperature increases of 2 °C (left dot) and 4 °C (right dot), given the present-day level of precipitation, for North America (panel a ), South America (panel b ), Europe (panel c ), Africa (panel d ), Asia (panel e ) and Oceania (panel f ). Abbreviations of each winegrowing region are listed in Supplementary Table  1 . Precipitation data are averaged on the period 1979–1999 from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data 254 and expressed in mm yr −1 . The projections data are taken from CMIP6 climate models, gathered in Figure SPM.5 of the 2021 IPCC report 117 . The level of confidence reflects the agreement among models as well as the size of the region concerned. In most regions, water availability will decline, in particular in the Mediterranean basin.

Water fluxes through the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum are regulated by leaf stomata 118 . Under drought, plants activate stomatal closure to prevent damage from excessive water losses (Fig.  5 ). Because CO 2 enters the leaf mesophyll through these stomata, water deficit also reduces photosynthesis, leading to a reduction in crop productivity 119 , 120 . The mechanisms triggering stomatal closure are complex and involve hydraulic 121 and hormonal signalling 122 , resulting in important differences in drought resistance across grapevine varieties 123 , 124 and rootstocks 125 . Water deficit reduces shoot growth more quickly than it reduces transpiration, in particular for secondary stems 126 . As a result, leaf area is reduced under drought, which further reduces water losses through transpiration, but also reduces plant productivity 127 .

Adaptation can be achieved through either limiting transpiration or increasing access to soil water. Limiting transpiration can be achieved by reducing canopy size and/or choosing varieties with more conservative stomatal control. Increasing access to soil water can be achieved by decreasing density, choosing high-vigour drought-tolerant rootstocks and/or establishing vineyards in a manner that promotes deeper rooting. Successfully adapting vineyards to drought is likely to require combining many of these adaptation mechanisms. E max denotes maximal transpiration. Adapted from ref.  255 under a Creative Commons licence CC BY 4.0 .

Water deficit negatively affects all yield components. Under drought, bunch initiation in latent buds is impaired, resulting in a lower number of bunches per shoot 128 . Limited availability of carbohydrates in dry conditions further reduces fruit set, limiting the number of berries per bunch 129 . Finally, berry weight is lower under drought 130 , in particular when occurring before veraison 131 , and more severe pre-veraison water deficits can reduce yield in the following season 132 . Owing to a reduced carbohydrate availability, effects on yield losses are cumulative after multiple dry years 133 .

The composition of grapes is also affected by water deficit. Because photosynthesis is reduced under severe drought, the sugar import in berries is impaired, resulting in lower sugar content (when expressed in mg per berry). Berry growth is, however, also severely restricted, so sugar concentration (expressed as gl − 1 sugar in grape juice) is not necessarily lower in water deficit conditions 134 , 135 . Compared with well-watered vines, berries actually ripen faster under mild water deficits, whereas ripening slows down under severe water deficit 136 . Water deficit reduces berry malic acid content, resulting in lower total acidity and higher pH 137 . Berries of red grapevine varieties accumulate more anthocyanins under water deficit, which improves red wine quality 138 , 139 , 140 . Water deficit also has positive impacts on most aroma compounds in grapes and red wines 141 , 142 . Hence, in general, red grape and wine quality is improved when vines are grown under water deficit, except when severe 137 . The relationship with water deficit is less straightforward for white grapes and wines 143 , because more polyphenols in white grapes do not necessarily translate into improved quality 144 .

Adaptation methods to mitigate drought damage are economically sustainable and possible with annual rainfall as low as 350 mm yr −1 (ref. 137 ). The choice of drought-resistant plant material is a major means for adaptation (Fig.  5 ). Typical Mediterranean varieties such as Grenache, Carignan and Cinsault produce good yields and high-quality wines in dry conditions with rainfall as low as 350 mm yr −1 without supplementary irrigation 145 , 146 . The mechanisms of varietal differences in drought resistance involve the complex interaction between many traits, which include lower maximum transpiration and stomatal conductance, and earlier stomatal closure 124 , 146 . Water-use efficiency also varies among clones at the intravarietal level 147 . Cultivated vines are generally grafted on rootstocks, and these display variability in drought resistance resulting from differences in their ability to explore the available soil volume (the plant’s vigour) together with differences in their ability to regulate transpiration of the variety grafted on top of the rootstock 148 , 149 . The training system is another key driver of drought resistance in grapevines (Fig.  5 ). For example, Mediterranean goblet bushvines are highly resilient to drought because of their reduced ratio of canopy surface area to vineyard surface area 90 , 150 . Bushvines grow near the ground where friction limits wind speed, reducing plant transpiration. Reduced planting density accomplishes the same reduction in the ratio of canopy to vineyard surface area, limiting light interception and transpiration on a per hectare basis. Thus, decreasing the number of vines per hectare, by increasing the distance between the rows, limits seasonal water consumption 19 . Applications of chemically inert mineral particles such as zeolite and kaolin increase midday leaf water potential, water-use efficiency and yield 94 , 151 . Short- and long-term adaptations to increased drought are extensively reviewed 152 .

The vine is a deep-rooting plant species, which is one of the drivers of its drought tolerance, because soil water holding capacity increases with rooting depth 153 . Before establishing the vineyard, deep soil preparation by means of a ripper favours deep rooting and increases plant available water reservoir 154 , 155 (Fig.  5 ).

Irrigation is another option to manage drought in vineyards. It promotes higher yields in dry conditions but also consumes limited freshwater resources 156 . Vines were traditionally dry-farmed in the Mediterranean basin but are usually irrigated in emerging winegrowing regions. In some of these regions (Mendoza, Argentina; Murray River Basin, Australia; Central Valley, California, USA), rainfall is at or below 300 mm yr −1 , and vines either cannot be grown, or yields would be prohibitively low, without supplementary irrigation 157 . To achieve higher yields, irrigation is now expanding in countries where vines used to be dry-farmed, like Spain. This growing use of irrigation is increasing competition for the limited freshwater resources in these countries 158 , 159 . Drip irrigation reduces the amount of irrigation water applied 160 but increases the risk of soil salinization 161 .

Increased CO 2

In the future, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations might reach 600 ppm or over 1,000 ppm by the end of the twenty-first century, depending on the emission scenario 117 , 162 . Generally, elevated CO 2 positively affects photosynthesis and enhances plant growth in C3 plants, owing to the CO 2 fertilization effect 163 . However, some negative effects have also been reported on plant mineral status 164 and in the control of cellular oxidation status and associated regulatory pathways to stress responses. Together, these effects could underlie acclimation processes 165 .

The few pluriannual enriched CO 2 experiments (free-air CO 2 enrichment, known as FACE, and open-top chamber experiments) in the field have shown a consistent increase in CO 2 assimilation, biomass accumulation at the vegetative and reproductive levels, water-use efficiency at the leaf level, and advanced phenology 166 , 167 , 168 . The effects on stomatal conductance and transpiration were inconsistent and depended on variety and other climate parameters such as evaporative demand and the tested CO 2 concentration. Berry sugar, organic acids and secondary metabolites such as polyphenols and aromas were only marginally affected by increased CO 2 concentration, and the effect was not consistent across years 167 , 169 .

Nevertheless, it is now clear that at the global level the positive effects of CO 2 on assimilation and biomass production are already offset by limiting abiotic factors such as increased vapour pressure deficit, drought and temperature 170 , 171 , 172 . When high temperatures (+2 °C) were combined with high CO 2 (650 ppm), synergetic effects on carbon assimilation were observed, but an antagonist effect on stomatal conductance and transpiration, resulting in temperature neutralizing the positive effect of CO 2 on water-use efficiency 166 . Under high-temperature, high-CO 2 climate change conditions (700 ppm [CO 2 ] and temperatures +4 °C) applied in a greenhouse during a single growth cycle, a decrease of anthocyanin to sugar ratio was observed 109 , 173 , similar to ratios observed under elevated temperature only, suggesting that the effects of elevated temperature alone predominate.

Extreme events

Global warming is already modifying the occurrence of some extreme events, and this trend is likely to worsen during the twenty-first century regardless of the emission scenario considered. Summer heatwaves have become more frequent and are stronger in amplitude 117 . For a scenario of 4 °C global warming, heatwaves that occurred once every decade in the pre-industrial era are projected to occur almost every year, exhibiting a 5 °C increase in amplitude as compared with heatwaves from the preindustrial era 117 .

Temperatures above 35 °C have a range of developmental, physiological and biochemical impacts on grapevines that depend on interactions with other climate variables (for example drought and wind) and on the timing of their occurrence relative to the vine’s growth cycle 174 . Extremely high temperatures (above 40–45 °C) can limit photosynthesis owing to damage to photosystem II and cause irreversible burning of leaves and berries 175 , with severe negative impacts on fruit yield. Yield losses up to 30–45% have been reported due to heatwaves 175 , 176 . However, these data are rare, and it can be hypothesized that yield losses could be even more severe if heatwaves occurred during or just after flowering, causing flower abortion and a reduction of bunch biomass 78 , 177 , and/or in combination with extreme drought events 174 , 178 . In addition to yield losses, heat stress negatively affects ripening and berry composition. For example, heatwaves during the green stages of berry development delay the onset of ripening 179 , 180 . Exposure to extreme heat events during ripening can affect sugar accumulation, organic acid and amino acid metabolism, as well as secondary metabolites that have a strong impact on berry composition and wine quality, such as polyphenols and aromas 108 , 180 , 181 . Shading the vines with nets or photovoltaic panels can be efficient options to mitigate the effects of heatwaves. Row orientation and training systems allowing more shade on canopies and clusters are also long-term adaptation means to lower the detrimental effects of extreme temperatures 178 .

The combined effects of more frequent drought and heatwaves increase the likelihood of wildfires 182 . Areas planted with vineyards can buffer the progress of wildfires 183 and might serve as natural firebreaks, because of biomass discontinuity and limited burning capacity 184 . Nevertheless, vines subjected to wildfires can be damaged to various degrees by flame, heat and smoke, in particular under warm and dry climates. Vines heavily affected by heat present reduced growth, starch concentrations in canes and buds, and fertility during the following season, with recovery taking up to 2 years 185 . When wines are produced with berries exposed to wildfire smoke during ripening, smoke taint is a major concern depreciating wine quality 186 . It provokes unpleasant ‘smoky’ and ‘ashy’ aromas and flavours caused by volatile phenols produced during the combustion of plant biomass but also by endogenous berry metabolic pathways through the shikimic acid and phenylpropanoid pathways 187 . Although volatile phenols decrease quickly following grape exposure to smoke 188 , unripened berries can also induce smoky aromas in wines. The accumulation of metabolites of the aforementioned glycosidic and shikimic pathways can be further transformed into undesirable compounds. Keeping vineyard surroundings free from bushy vegetation and vineyard soils free from grasses could mitigate wildfire damages in vineyards 189 .

Extreme precipitation events are already occurring more frequently in many regions, and there is a high confidence that this trend will continue 117 . It is predicted that at the global scale the frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase by 2.7 times on average, with about a 30% increase in volume per event for a 4 °C global warming scenario 117 , which might strongly increase the risk of flooding events. For a 2 °C global warming scenario, the frequency of heavy rain events is predicted to increase by 1.7 times, with a 14% increase in volume per event.

Flooding can affect both vineyards and buildings associated with winemaking, with short- and long-term consequences, which have subsequent major direct and indirect economic impacts on the production 190 . Flood damage modelling efforts have been aimed at evaluating the risks and the potential economic consequences of increasing flood frequency, mainly for compensation and insurance purposes 190 , 191 . In the vineyard, impacts are threefold: the soil might be affected with erosion or soil displacement, the vines can be uprooted and the canopy partly or totally damaged, and finally the crop can be destroyed when flood occurs during the season before harvest 190 . To mitigate flood damage to the vineyard, under-vine vegetation can be grown to improve infiltration of rainwater and limit erosion in case of heavy rain events. Competition for water from the cover crop is generally limited or non-existent, because under-vine vegetation enhances deeper rooting, promoting the vine’s roots to access deep water reserves 192 . Equipment and stored wines can be destroyed by flooding if the winery is located in a risky area, which should be avoided as much as possible.

Although projections place high confidence in extreme precipitation increase in the future, the change in hailstorm frequency and intensity remains uncertain. An assessment suggested that hailstorm frequency might increase in Australia and Europe, but decrease in East Asia and North America, while hail severity will increase in most regions 16 . However, hail results from severe convective storms, including complex and fine-scale phenomena, which suffer inaccurate simulations by climate models 16 . Hail can partly or totally destroy the annual vegetation of the vines, as well as the crop, with risks of pest and disease infections and secondary effects over several seasons. The fruit quality might also be impaired 193 . Damage on latent buds can affect the production of the following year 194 . When there is high risk of hail, damage can be prevented by using nets or alternative vine-covering systems 195 .

Finally, projections of the risks of future spring frost show large uncertainties. Although the number of frost days is decreasing and the date of the last spring frost is advancing, budbreak dates are also advancing. The relative rates of change of these events in the future are strongly model-dependent, thus prohibiting a robust assessment 14 , 15 , 196 , 197 . Several methods have been developed for frost protection in vineyards, including wind machines, over-vine sprinklers, budbreak delaying techniques 198 and the increase of trunk height 92 .

Climate change implies that vineyards are increasingly subjected to constraining climate conditions, such as elevated temperature and heatwaves, drought or extreme precipitation, leading for example to increased risks of floods and wildfires. These hazards can alter the quantity and the quality of harvested grapes as well as long-term vineyard sustainability. Adaptation strategies implemented by growers, either annually, such as pruning date or cover-crop management, or over the long-term, such as varietal choice, training systems and plantation sites, might substantially reduce the vulnerability of vineyards.

Changing impacts of pests and diseases

Winegrowers are challenged by a multitude of pathogens and insects (hereafter termed bioaggressors), causing major yield and quality losses which sometimes limit economically viable wine production. The current control of vineyard bioaggressors is mainly based on pesticide applications, leading to soil and water pollution 199 , affecting global health 200 , and leading to substantial global financial losses 201 . The impact of bioaggressors is strongly affected by climate, and climate change is modifying the spatial distribution, frequency and intensity of bioaggressors 202 , 203 , 204 .

These changes may have negative, positive or neutral effects for viticulture (Fig.  6 ). Negative effects include more favourable conditions for the development of pests 201 and diseases 202 , immigration of pathogen vector 203 , increasing the speed of growth, and/or increased plant susceptibility 204 . Positive effects include conditions becoming unfavourable for the pathogen, more adapted conditions for a bioaggressor’s natural enemies, improvement in the plant’s defences, and/or reduction in the plant’s susceptibility period 205 , 206 , 207 , 208 , 209 . All these interactions might be affected in parallel and to a greater or lesser degree, making it very difficult to determine the direct impact of climate change on bioaggressors.

For each bioaggressor, coloured backgrounds to each statement identify the positive or negative expected consequences of climate change as reported or hypothesized in the scientific literature. In subtropical to mid-latitude wine regions where drier conditions during the growing season are expected, downy mildew pressure should decrease as a result of reduced contamination. In contrast, powdery mildew pressure should increase owing to earlier and faster development of the pathogen. Insects, which either transport virus and phytoplasma or provide direct damage to grapevine, will show various changes in their life traits that might either limit or increase their harmfulness. Phytopathology depends not only on the bioaggressors’ biological features but also on plant vulnerability to pests and diseases 232 . Moreover, interactions (depicted by circular arrows) of bioaggressors with their natural enemies or trophic competitors, such as parasitoids, might modify pest and disease issues in the vineyard 256 . As a result, pest-related damages, as well as the outcomes of grey mould, viruses and grapevine trunk diseases in a changing climate, remain highly uncertain. Credit: insets showing grapevine pests and diseases courtesy of Marielle Adrian, Anais Pertuizet, and Fanny Vogelweith.

Climate change might favour the expansion of invasive species in new territories (Fig.  6 ). For example, the spotted wing drosophila ( Drosophila suzukii , native to Southeast Asia), which damages various fruit crops including grapes, has been spreading in Europe and the United States since the early 2000s. Even if pest immigration is also related to increasing globalization, climate change affects the survival and continued spread of this species, owing to milder winters and improved conditions for development during summer 210 .

Studies of the consequences of climate change on grapevine insects are mostly focused on Lobesia botrana , a moth from the Tortricidae family, which inflicts damage on buds, flowers and berries worldwide. Its lifecycle traits, in particular its reproductive cycle, are mostly driven by temperature conditions 211 . Hence, warming is changing its phenology with earlier emergence 212 and increased voltinism 213 (number of generations per year; Fig.  6 ). Yet an increase in the number of generations does not necessarily produce additional damage, as higher temperatures lead to an earlier harvest 214 , 215 . In hot production areas (southern California, southern Spain, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Palestine), where summer temperature approaches the upper thermal limit of this species, a decrease in L. botrana abundance is projected, whereas an increase is simulated during the twenty-first century in northern California and most of Europe 216 , 217 .

Fungus or fungus-like related diseases do not only depend on temperature, but are highly sensitive to humidity and precipitation changes. Downy and powdery mildews are considered the most important fungal threat for many wine-producing regions worldwide with a diversity of climate conditions 218 . These two diseases are caused by polycyclic pathogens whose development is strongly dependent on the weather conditions of the growing season. Plasmopara viticola , causing downy mildew, requires rainfall and leaf wetness to contaminate grapevine at every stage of its development 219 . Owing to uncertainties in precipitation changes in many regions at mid-latitudes 117 , projected changes in downy mildew risks yield contradictory results. In northeast France, less favourable conditions are expected owing to decreases in the duration and occurrence of leaf wetness and to temperatures exceeding the optimum for infection 220 . In contrast, in northern Italy 221 and in many European wine regions 222 the disease severity is expected to slightly increase with rising temperature. Similar uncertainties exist for Erysiphe necator , the causal agent of powdery mildew 214 , 223 , 224 .

Climate change might affect other major grapevine diseases such as grape grey mould, a ubiquitous disease worldwide 218 , caused by Botrytis cinerea , or grapevine trunk diseases (a syndrome causing grapevine decay and caused by a large diversity of fungal pathogens 225 ). As grey mould epidemics are strongly related to humidity conditions 226 , one could expect reduced grey mould where drier conditions during grape ripening period are expected (Fig.  6 ). However, investigations regarding these pathologies are few, rendering projections of their possible evolution during the next decades uncertain.

In conclusion, while climate optimum ranges are identified for development rate, spreading and virulence of many grapevine bioaggressors 219 , 227 , 228 , 229 , projection of climate change impacts on grapevine phytopathology are challenging because of the existence of complex interactions, including the genetic evolution of bioaggressors (leading to adaptation to new climate conditions), microbial ecology at plot and plant levels 230 , and pest–plant–parasites tritrophic interactions 231 , 232 .

The impact of viticultural expansion

As detailed above, climate change threatens long-established viticultural regions throughout the world, and predicting future threats to these regions has garnered a lot of attention. What is less studied is the potential impact of viticultural expansion into new regions. Changes in climate are predicted to make large areas previously considered unsuitable or undesirable for viticulture into desirable regions 10 , 13 , 37 . Most of these newly suitable regions are predicted to be at higher latitudes and/or altitudes. For example, suitable land area increases ranging from 80% to more than 200% (dependent on the degree of warming) are predicted for the northerly regions of Europe and North America 10 . In addition, the expansion of newly suitable viticultural areas in Europe is predicted to greatly outpace losses, resulting in a net increase of as much as 40% by the end of the century 13 . Regional studies have made similar predictions. For example, vineyard area in the United Kingdom has expanded approximately 400% between 2004 and 2021, and studies predict emerging viticultural suitability across large portions of the country 233 .

Viticultural expansion requires either the conversion of existing agricultural land and/or the conversion of wild habitats. Thus, viticultural expansion will have major impacts on land use and natural resources. Even within established wine regions, changing suitability could potentially threaten wild lands. As temperatures increase, higher elevations might become increasingly suitable for viticulture, but this upslope expansion could encroach on wild habitats in mountain regions 234 , 235 .

Unfortunately, studies that detail changes in land use resulting from viticultural expansion are scarce. One such study, examining expansion and changes in land use in the Prosecco region of Italy, demonstrated that impacts on wild lands can be important. During a 5-year period from 2007 to 2012, conversion of existing cropland accounted for approximately 65% of the new expansion 236 , while the remaining 35% was planted on converted grass and woodlands. We would expect the impact of viticultural expansion on wild habitats to be highly variable across different regions, but clearly, this expansion poses a real threat. Governmental authorities would be wise to monitor these conversions in order to quantify the extent to which wild lands are being impacted.

Making accurate predictions regarding viticultural expansion is difficult because it is dependent on many factors. The suitability predictions outlined in this Review are all based on environmental constraints, but changes in vineyard area are dependent on additional factors, most notably market forces. In the early 2000s, a period of rapid growth of viticulture in South Africa, warnings were made that increasing local suitability could drive viticultural expansion into surrounding wild lands 237 . In reality, there has been a reduction in vineyard area in the region since the 2000s, because of decreased market demand 238 . Although the warnings were correct to point out the threats posed by viticultural expansion, this expansion was never realized because of other constraints.

Throughout history, vineyard locations have changed continuously, at the local, national and international levels. Geopolitical issues, social demands, market forces, issues around transportation, natural crises such as disease outbreaks, and changes in environmental conditions have been the main drivers of change 239 , 240 , 241 , 242 , 243 . There are numerous historical examples. Archaeological excavations show that viticulture existed in Great Britain during the Roman period 244 when climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere were almost as warm as the 1960–1990 reference period 245 , 246 . It disappeared after the sixteenth century because of increased imports from abroad 247 and probably also because of the colder conditions of the Little Ice Age, which lasted about 500 years from the fourteenth to mid-nineteenth century, with average temperatures 0.4–0.7 °C lower than for a reference period defined as 1961–1990 in the Northern Hemisphere and Europe 246 , 248 .

In Europe, the largest vineyard expansion occurred from the mid-eighteenth to the mid-nineteenth centuries, despite relatively cool conditions. In France, vineyards increased by 43% between 1808 and 1870 ref. 249 , followed by a sudden collapse because of the phylloxera outbreak. This expansion was mainly linked to the large social demand due to the industrial development around major cities. In 1827, a detailed statistical analysis about vineyard location in France showed that only the northwest of France had no vineyards at this time 250 , presumably because of unsuitable climate conditions. In many of the emerging wine regions, viticulture development was first linked to colonial expansion, with economic motivations being important drivers of vineyard development 247 , 251 .

The extent to which viticulture will expand into new regions remains an open question and depends to a large extent on market forces. This potential expansion holds economic opportunities but also risks the loss of wild lands and increased consumption of freshwater resources when new vineyards are irrigated. Regions where this expansion is likely to occur should be proactive about mitigating these negative impacts on natural resources.

Summary and future perspectives

This Review outlines the huge challenges that climate change is presenting for viticulture and provides a consensus map on suitability gains and losses that details potential changes to the distribution of winegrowing regions globally. The exact extent of these changes remains unknown and will depend on the magnitude of climate change along with the ability to adapt to these challenges. The primary threats are increased heat and drought, extreme weather events, and unpredictability with regard to changing pest and disease pressure. The regions that are most at risk are those with already hot and dry climates. Without radical adaptation, some of these regions are clearly threatened. Change also brings with it opportunities, as some regions will benefit, and new wine regions will surely emerge. However, these changes are not without consequences either, and expanding viticulture could bring with it impacts on natural resource consumption and wild habitats.

Where possible, these climate challenges need to be met with robust science-based adaptation strategies. Some adaptations to hotter and drier climates are already known and embody simple, sound agronomic principles. For example, heatwave damage can be mitigated through changing canopies to increase the shading of fruit, and vineyard water use can be reduced through decreased planting density and smaller canopies. Given the geographical range across which grapevine is cultivated, it can be argued that it is a highly tolerant crop, but concrete climate thresholds for losses in fruit and wine quality, and the knowledge of how these thresholds vary with variety, rootstock and management practices, are still lacking. The difficulty in predicting hard thresholds for decreased fruit quality and production is probably due to the plasticity of grapevines, which readily adapt to climate challenges even within a single season, and to the adaptations brought about by the winegrowers themselves.

Grapevine varietal diversity is probably the most promising adaptation lever for climate change, and probably the most underused. The limited use of genetic diversity is almost certainly due in part to market forces that have homogenized diversity across most regions 81 , 252 . Still, there are hundreds to thousands of different varieties and clones waiting to be explored, many of which will have valuable phenotypes for adaptation to climate change. Guiding the use of this diversity is problematic because we do not clearly understand the physiological mechanisms and genetic basis for most traits, making screening varieties laborious and time-consuming. Advancement in the understanding of these mechanisms, and their genetic underpinnings, will speed the identification of varieties adapted to specific climate extremes. This will require identifying and accurately phenotyping key traits across a wide diversity of grapevine genotypes.

As the climate becomes more extreme, some viticultural regions are starting to hit these thresholds. Exceptionally hot and dry vintages across Europe, for example in Spain and Portugal, have driven some rainfed vineyards in the hottest and driest regions to their breaking point, resulting in stunted vines, defoliated canopies and severe yield losses. We need to learn from these events through monitoring programmes that quantitatively follow these extreme climates and their impacts. For example, in many dry-farmed regions, water status monitoring is conspicuously absent, and implementing such monitoring could reveal threatening levels of water stress and allow mitigating actions 137 . As viticulture expands into new regions, impacts on natural ecosystems and biodiversity need to be considered and negative impacts mitigated. This could mean avoiding the conversion of wild lands, designing new vineyards to be dry-farmed wherever possible to eliminate the need for irrigation, and/or emphasizing sustainability and environmental stewardship.

The most important aspect of wine production is the finished product. All adaptations to climate change must preserve the economic sustainability of production through maintaining adequate yields and quality that meet consumer demands 152 . Working with the market and the consumers can be the biggest challenge, and sometimes highly effective adaptation options remain unused because of market constraints (for example new hybrid varieties and genetically modified varieties). Marketing wine by the region of origin and not by the variety is a route to consumer’s acceptance of the use of less-known varieties, which might potentially be better adapted to the changing climate 253 .

One thing is certain: climate change will drive major changes in global wine production in the near future. Having the flexibility to adapt to these changes will be essential.

Data availability

The suitability assessment compiled in Fig.  1 can be obtained by applying, for each region identified in Supplementary Table  1 , the methodology explained in the Supplementary note and in Supplementary Tables  3 , 4 and 5 , for each specific reference selected in Supplementary Table  2 .

The data underlying Fig.  3 are freely available, for the observed precipitations at http://gpcp.umd.edu/ and for drought projections at https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/1b91153925dd474387bb696d59adbd15 .

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Acknowledgements

B.B. and S.Z. thank P. Louâpre and M. Adrian for help with Fig.  6 . D.S., C.v.L., G.G. and G.S. acknowledge the financial support of the RRI ‘Tackling Global Change’ funded by the University of Bordeaux and Jas Hennessy.

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C.v.L. acted as lead author and designed Fig. 2 . G.S. implemented an extensive literature review for Fig. 1 , designed that figure and participated in writing. G.S. also wrote the methodology in the Supplementary Data section. D.S. designed Fig. 4 and participated in writing. B.B. and S.Z. designed Fig. 6 and participated in writing. N.O. participated in writing. G.G. designed Fig. 5 , participated in writing and edited the manuscript.

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Growing grapes and making wine

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

Hi. My name is Georgia and I love cooking. I had an amazing time cooking on a big TV show and I won the competition. Now, I want to find out more about where our food comes from. Let's go on a journey together to visit some farms, meet some young farmers, and learn about how our food is produced. But what about drinks? I obviously don't drink wine but lots of adults around the world do. And wine production is a very important agricultural industry in Australia.

But how are grapes turned into wine? How much wine is produced in Australia? And what's it like being a winemaker? Let's find out. The Australian wine industry is big, and people all around the world drink our wines. There are over 2000 wineries in Australia. And the Australian wine industry contributes about $45 billion to the Australian economy annually.

Australian winemakers produce over a billion litres of wine every year. In 2020 to 2021, Australia exported 693 million litres of wine, valued at $2.6 billion. China was the biggest customer with 24% of the exports by value going there. Here in Australia, Australian wine makes up about 80% of the total volume of wine sold.

Australia is currently the fifth largest wine producer in the world. Wine is produced in every state, but most of it is produced in the southern cooler parts of Australia. There are about 65 wine regions in Australia. Some of the best known regions are found here. Now, let's visit the Yarra Valley in Victoria to meet a winemaking teacher and some of his students.

Hello, I'm Tim Thompson. I'm the farm manager, and one of the agriculture teachers here at Mount Lilydale Mercy College. And I'm very proud of the programmes that we run, one of which, of course, is viticulture and winemaking. So people might ask, why teach about wine in a school? We don't actually give the students any wine to drink ever. They never get to taste the product. They enjoy the process of making the wine because it gives relevance to all of the other work that they're doing in their other studies.

We have chemistry skills in the titrations and the pH scale and understanding about fermentation. You've got biology in the molecular biology of fermentation. You've also got biology in how the grape vines themselves grow. You've got agriculture in terms of pest disease management. The students learn monitoring skills, they use statistics, and not only that, but students are actively involved with local industry. And I think that should be part of the curriculum for any school that wants to add value to the community and add value to its students.

We're agriculture students at Mount Lilydale Mercy College.

And we're learning about winemaking.

Come and check out our vineyard.

Firstly, what is wine?

Wine is an alcoholic drink that people over the age of 18 can drink.

Wine is made by fermenting fruit juice.

Fermentation occurs when tiny living things like yeast, bacteria, and mould create a chemical change.

Don't worry, it's not that gross.

For thousands of years, people have used fermentation to make wine and beer, as well as bread, cheese and other foods.

Most wine is made from grapes, but it can be made from other fruits.

Wine grapes are different to the grapes you might have in your lunchbox at school, but they're still delicious.

Oy, stop eating the grapes.

Grapes are great to make wine from, because they contain acid, which preserves the juice, and allows it to be aged for a long time.

Sometimes wine can be drunk decades after it was made.

Grapes also have a high sugar content, which allows them to ferment.

There are lots of different types of wine like red, white, rose, sparkling, and sweet wine.

And there are many, many different wine grape varieties in the world.

The most common varieties we grow in Australia are Shiraz, Chardonnay, and Cabernet Sauvignon.

And different varieties of grapes prefer different climates and soil types.

At our school we grow Cabernet grapes. Come and check out how we turn them into wine.

So I guess it starts with the grapevines. Let's find out how they're grown.

Grapevines prefer a nice, sunny spot on a slope. Planting and growing grape vines can be complicated. Luckily, we have a vineyard at our school that's over 20 years old.

And a teacher who's 120.

That's not true.

The vines are pruned in winter when they are dormant and lose their leaves. We cut them back to encourage new growth.

As we enter spring, we then train up the young shoots between foliage wires. This keeps the canopy upright, and manages the amount of pest and disease that we have to deal with by other means. Students then count the flower clusters and the number of shoots to determine if any thinning is required.

We also encourage natural predators for our pests by planting particular native plants nearby. These act as a biological control.

We only use chemical controls to restore the balance when we really need to.

And we use nets to protect the vines from birds.

Once the grapes have started growing, we start tasting and testing the grapes in the lead up to harvesting.

We use refractometers to monitor the sugar levels, and a pH metre to see how our acid levels are going. We need the levels to be just right before we pick the grapes.

Wow, making wine is really scientific. What happens next?

Harvest time is lots of fun and a bit messy. We pick all the grapes and take them back to our classroom winery.

The stems are moved by a destemmer. And then we crush the grapes, that also gets a bit messy.

But we don't wine about it.

We inoculate this crushed fruit, with yeast, and with nutrient.

Australian soils are low in phosphorus. Yeast needs phosphorus for energy. So we add phosphorus in the form of DAP.

We use yeast to turn the sugar from the grapes into wine. And now we add a touch of sugar for luck.

It is left in the tank to ferment.

The ferment is then plunged twice a day, every day to push the red skins back down into the juice as the yeast starts to create heat and carbon dioxide bubbles, which push them back up again.

We check the temperature and the sugars every day. Once the sugar is gone, we press the wine off the skins.

This is when the crushed grapes get totally squashed. By applying pressure to the top of the press, we can extract the wine from the skins. We have to be careful about how much we press them because overpricing can harm the flavour. The skins are then removed and the wine is put into a tank to settle for about two weeks.

During this time, the dead yeast cells fall to the bottom.

We then syphon or rack the clear wine.

Racking is really just moving the wine from the tank to the barrel.

Then the wine is stored for 12 months.

Every month the wine in the barrel is checked for evaporation, and topped up with the leftover wine that's still in the tank.

Once the wine's been in barrel for about 12 months at this school, we then bottle the wine ready for parents, friends, and supporters of the programme.

We don't drink any of it, but we love making it. And sometimes we even win awards for it.

Now, that was a truly grape vintage.

Now let's visit a big winery nearby that the school has a partnership with.

My name is Brendan Hawker. I'm the senior winemaker here at Yering Station Winery. We are situated in the Yarra Valley, just an hour's drive northeast of Melbourne. We're making close to a million bottles of wine a year, all from premium Yarra Valley vineyards. Every year during harvest, we have a group that come out from Mount Lilydale College, and we show them turning grapes into wine.

So they might be only working with a few hundred kilos at a time, whereas we're working with a few thousand kilos at a time of grapes for a ferment. So really the processes that they're doing there, and what Tim has them learning about, is very much applicable to what we do here. We just have bigger equipment to move the grapes around and handle it with.

And now for a fun fact.

Between 600 and 800 grapes go into making just one bottle of our school's wine.

Wow, that's a lot of grapes. I reckon I only used about 200 in my jam. I love this recipe. All you need is grapes, sugar, and lemon juice. This is how you make it. You need about a kilo of red grapes. Pick the grapes and put them into the bowl. Pour them into a big saucepan and cook them with the lid on, over low heat for five minutes. Make sure you have an adult with you when using the stove.

Mash the grapes with a potato masher, then leave them to keep cooking with the lid on for another 15 minutes. You might like to mash them a bit more during this time. Place a fine sieve over a bowl, and pour the grape mixture in so only the juice runs through. Leave it to drain for an hour or two.

You might also want to use a spoon to press down on the pulp to get more of the juice out. Then put the grape juice back into the saucepan and add 2 cups of sugar. You might want to try using jam sugar. Then add half a cup of lemon juice. Stir the mixture over a low heat to dissolve the sugar. Then turn up the heat so the mixture starts to boil, and cook it for about 10 minutes.

Test with a spoon to see if the jam has become syrupy. If you can see that it's become a little bit thicker, take it off the heat. When it's ready, pour the hot jam into a sterilised jar and seal. You also need toast with butter. I'm going to go make some. I'm full of grape ideas. Bye.

SUBJECTS:   Geography , Science , Technologies

YEARS:  F–2, 3–4, 5–6, 7–8, 9–10

Wine is an important agricultural industry in Australia, with over 1 billion litres of wine made here each year.

There are over 2,000 wineries in Australia and around 65 wine regions, found mostly in cooler southern parts of the country. But how are grapes turned into wine?

Tim Thompson and his students make wine as part of an agriculture subject at their school. Join them as they show us all the steps that go into winemaking, from growing healthy grapevines to testing, harvesting, crushing and fermenting the grapes. We learn how wine is pressed, stored and bottled, and we visit a large Yarra Valley winery nearby, which has a partnership with the school.

Things to think about

• 1. How are pests and diseases managed at the school vineyard?
• 2. Why do the students do experiments with the grape juice?
• 3. What are some of the other ways science is used to make wine?
• 4. What are some of the processes the grapes go through after they're harvested?

Production Date: 2022

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Metadata © Australian Broadcasting Corporation 2020 (except where otherwise indicated). Digital content © Australian Broadcasting Corporation (except where otherwise indicated). Video © Australian Broadcasting Corporation (except where otherwise indicated). All images copyright their respective owners. Text © Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

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A Case Study in Growing an Emerging Wine State

From investing in education and grape-growing subsidies to galvanizing the winemaking community, New Mexico offers an example of rightsized growth

written by Tyler Wetherall

published February 21, 2023

In 2029, New Mexico will celebrate 400 years since Mission grapes were first planted along the banks of the Rio Grande by Franciscan monks to make sacramental wine. It’s the oldest wine growing region in the U.S. and, before Prohibition, the fifth-largest wine producing state. But widespread flooding in the early 1900s devastated the industry, and its significance ended there. Today, the well-versed wine drinker would be hard pressed to name a New Mexico producer aside from Gruet .

But the state has been quietly growing its wine industry in the past decade. In 2022, it generated approximately $1.12 billion in total economic activity according to a National Economic Impact Study by The National Association of American Wineries , up from $876 million in 2020 . (Comparatively, Oregon’s industry generates close to $7.19 billion.) According to Maryel Lopez, the viticulture program coordinator at New Mexico State University (NMSU), growth is accelerating. “From what I’ve seen in the last year, the industry is growing way more than 10 percent a year; it’s exponentially growing,” she says. But beyond the numbers, there is burgeoning excitement amongst a new generation of producers ready to reimagine the state’s approach to viticulture.

“This next generation is retelling the story with a modern twist,” says Chris Goblet, the executive director of New Mexico Wine . “What we’ve seen happen in Oregon, Washington, and now New York and Idaho—it’s something that we have the capability of doing here if we can build enough momentum and energy around this industry.” That ongoing effort is what makes New Mexico an instructive case study in how a small wine-producing state might boost their wine production and statewide economy through investing in grape growing, galvanizing the winemaking community, and educating up-and-coming vintners. 

Building on a Winemaking Legacy

New Mexico had its first wine growing renaissance in the 1980s, when winemakers such as Gilbert Gruet arrived largely from Italy, Germany, and France in search of commercial grape-growing land at more affordable prices than offered in California. Many planted French hybrids, such as Vidal Blanc and Baco Noir, that would thrive  despite the cool nights, high elevation, and dry, rocky calcium-rich soil. 

In 1986, Paolo D’Andrea was one such new arrival from the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia region of Italy. He brought four generations of grape-growing expertise, and is now widely referred to as the godfather of New Mexico wine. He is the largest supplier of grapes in the state, as well as, since 2001, the cofounder of Luna Rossa Winery along with his wife, Sylvia. 

But it is the D’Andreas’ son, Marco, who is amongst the new generation of winemakers taking the helm. These include Chris and Jesse Padburg at Vivác , which launched in 1998, but in recent years has seen rapid expansion; Sean Sheehan, who founded Sheehan Winery in 2015; and Jasper Riddle, the winemaker and owner of Noisy Water Winery . “I came into the industry in 2010, and it was in disarray,” says Riddle, describing a then stagnating scene. “Around 2015, all these new winemakers are popping in, and you see some energy getting put back into the chests and the hearts of the older wineries.” While there wasn’t a single catalyst, Riddle theorizes that New Mexico’s affordability and the ascension of the craft beverage industry more generally helped attract these start-up winemakers to the region.

Then in 2016, two separate wine associations covering different parts of the state merged to become New Mexico Wine, and soon after launched the “Vivo Vino” marketing campaign. They stamped the revamped logo on T-shirts, glassware, and hats, positioning themselves not just as a trade association, which serves its members, but as a brand, which consumers can identify with. “It’s given a real unity to the wineries in New Mexico that all see themselves as part of this brand,” says Goblet. 

For many, this sense of community was vital to the changes in the industry. “You got this really collaborative group of wineries working together to try to better the state, and subsequently, that made the wine a lot better … [through] talking about winegrowing and cross-utilizing resources,” says Riddle. “We understand it’s going to take all of us together to make a stand and to bring awareness and outside eyes onto our industry.” 

Rewriting the Winemaking Script 

Some winemakers put the recent growth down to reimagining the previous well-worn formula. “What ticked me off is everyone said you can’t make good wines in New Mexico,” says Robert Jaramillo, the cofounder and winemaker at Jaramillo Vineyards . “The problem was everyone was trying to make these European style wines out of hybrids.” 

Sheehan agrees. “The biggest change in mindset is rather than doing an imitation of an established wine style—rather than doing our best version of Napa Valley or Bordeaux—we’re making New Mexico wines. We’re leaning into the distinct character of the grapes and the wines, which are going to be lighter, brighter, fruit forward, higher in acid, and really food friendly.”

Sheehan came up in the industry using “the Craigslist model,” buying all secondhand equipment, paid for from tips working in the service industry. He went from a couple of acres and 400 cases in 2015 to 12 acres and 8,000 cases in 2022, winning at state wine fairs. In October 2021, he opened a second tasting room in Albuquerque Old Town, next door to Noisy Water’s sixth tasting room, which sells local produce and cheese plates alongside the wine. 

Neither would have been possible without an ordinance approved by the council in 2019 allowing taprooms and wine-tasting venues in the Old Town—a ban on alcohol sales outside of restaurants had been in place since the 1970s—which has helped revitalize the area for both tourists and locals. A reciprocity law , which passed in 2015, also allowed these tasting rooms to sell other New Mexico-made beers, wines, and ciders. “It’s a self fulfilling prophecy: if you want craft producers to succeed, give them more outlets, give them more shelf space,” says Goblet, who chaired the economic development committee responsible for developing the legislation. “A lot of what we’re doing is just a common sense approach to how you build capacity in an industry.”  

Investing In the Next Generation 

One of the biggest challenges is expanding grape acreage. That was the impetus behind the $1 million Vineyard Restoration Fund , which launched in 2022. It stimulates growth by reimbursing wineries for rootstock to either expand their existing vineyards or replace vines lost as a result of unavoidable events. The state legislature recognized the value of investing in the wine industry to generate taxes, create jobs, and boost the economy as a whole. “I sold this to our policy leaders, as ‘$1 million today will get you $10 million in taxes paid out over the next 10 years,’” says Goblet. “We need to convince our agriculture, tourism, and economic development partners that we are an industry that’s as exciting and fruitful as wind energy and the green economy.” Goblet also sees this as a recruitment strategy for winemakers from outside the state. “We’re giving away free money,” he says. “It’s too expensive to buy land in Napa or Sonoma; you can start a small winery here for a reasonable sum.”  

Education is the other vital piece of the puzzle when it comes to building lasting growth. NMSU’s viticulture program collaborates with New Mexico Wine to undertake applied research to inform the winegrowing efforts in the state, working with many winemakers, as well as offering winemaking workshops. Central New Mexico Community College just completed work on a state-of-the-art production facility for its new program in Wine Technology , which hopes to receive its first students in Spring 2023. The program was created as an employee pipeline to help staff the now 57 state wineries. 

“ We want to attract the young, curious minds of the wine world to be a part of this,” says Riddle. He’s excited about the amount of applicants Noisy Water receives for its internship program each round. “It’s not like I work with 17,000 tons of Pinot Noir; I have 50 different varieties, there’s a bunch of different programs, there’s all this crazy stuff happening—talk about having a test kitchen for young winemakers! It’s a heck of a place to do it.”  

Rightsizing Growth 

Despite the palpable enthusiasm on the ground, the majority of winemakers in the state are not yet exporting beyond state lines, with profits coming from direct-to-consumer sales, tasting rooms, and wine fairs. Noisy Water is amongst a handful of wineries exporting, but they’re taking a segmented approach, starting with Texas and Arizona. “We realize we’re never going to be California, no one has that opportunity,” says Riddle. “But how do we get put in this premium, boutique wine conversation instead?” Goblet  agrees. “It’s going to take a long time to develop an export market, if I’m honest,” he says. “ We need a lot bigger purse strings.” For Sheehan, who has a well-subscribed wine club, it’s not a priority. “The math just doesn’t work for us.”

Instead, the strategy largely relies on the state’s 2.2 million population and liquid tourism. “Tourists are the main driver for local wine here,” says Ella Raymont, the wine director and wine shop manager at La Casa Sena Wine Shop in Santa Fe. “I think with emerging regions like in Texas and the Valle de Guadalupe in Mexico, it gives New Mexico some clout in terms of regional viability to grow healthy grapes for winemaking.” Tourist expenditure on the wine industry reached $29.33 million in 2022 and domestic tourism grew by record numbers in 2021, with events like the Sante Fe Wine & Chile Festival or Alburqurque’s Harvest Wine Festival attracting thousands of attendees. 

But the prevailing attitude is there’s room for a lot more growth. And Lopez is willing to go the extra mile to support new winemakers. “Getting the word out, I think, is a key factor for the industry to grow and continue to be empowered,” she says. “If someone is interested in getting a vineyard set up or if they have vines that they want to recover, we’re here to help.”

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Tyler Wetherall is the senior editor for  SevenFifty Daily  and the  Beverage Media Group  publications. Her drinks journalism has appeared in publications including  Punch ,  The Guardian ,  Condé Nast Traveler ,  Thrillist , and  The Spirits Business , which awarded her the  Alan Lodge Young International Drinks Writer of the Year .  Tyler is also the author of  No Way Home: A Memoir of Life on the Run . Follow her on Instagram at  @tylerwrites .

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Case studies: Grape / Wine

Wine is undoubtedly one of the most representative components of the Mediterranean food-related cultural heritage. Indeed, wine has been the favourite beverage to accompany the meals of the Mediterranean populations for centuries, even long before the concept of Mediterranean diet was born. Today, wine is produced all over the globe, but Europe still retains its traditional leadership role in winemaking – accounting for around 60% of the world’s output – with Italy, France and Spain being by far the major producers.

Vitis vinifera is the species to which nearly all of the hundreds of different varieties of grapevines that are used to make wine belong. The grape varieties (familiar names include Cabernet Sauvignon, Sangiovese, Tempranillo, Touriga Nacional, Assyrtiko, etc) differ from one another in characteristics ranging from size and colour, to disease resistance and ripening time. These differences are by no means the only factors that determine the quality of the wine. The quality of the grapes, which in turn is affected by numerous aspects such as the type and chemistry of the soil, the time of harvest, the pruning method, the elevation and shape of the vineyard and the local yeast culture are also very important. The combination of these factors and other effects is commonly referred to as terroir, and by greatly influencing the process of fermentation, as well as aging, it results in marked differences among wines.

However, arguably the most important terroir component – the one with the strongest impact on the quality of wine for any given grapevine variety – is climate. Indeed, climate greatly affects the composition of mature grapes. Important factors that result in variation among grapes from different areas are the sun exposure, the temperature difference between night and day and, most importantly, the amount of heat received during the growing season and the amount and seasonal patterns of rainfall. By altering the boundaries of the climatic zones and increasing year on year variability, climate change is creating imbalances in wine production worldwide, resulting both in loss of viability in certain areas and increase of sustainability in others. One example is the recent expansion in wine production in the United Kingdom and Denmark, where previously the climate was relatively inhospitable for growing of wine grapes. However, even before these extreme situations are verified, climate change has severe impacts in the sensory expression of wines, their taste, changing the typical perception from a given region and, potentially alienating consumers with significant impacts on regional and business economics.

MED-GOLD will develop climate services that will provide long term (decadal) predictions of the main climatic factors which impact on grape growth and quality, allowing anticipation of climate change effects. These services will assist wine producers in managing risks within the framework of their medium and long-term business strategies. Furthermore, by providing seasonal forecasts at different spatial and temporal scales, MED-GOLD will help producers in dealing more effectively with grapevine protection against diseases and pests, increasing their bottom line.

Questions MED-GOLD will address

Seasonal timescale

How many pest management spray treatments or distribution are expected for the upcoming Spring / Summer season?

What will be the probability that the number of treatments will exceed a specific threshold for the upcoming spring / summer months.

Long-term timescale

What vineyard perennial characteristics (variety/scion/rootstock...) will be suitable in a particular area in a 30-year time horizon?

How the vulnerability to drought/pathogen will change in a particular area for the next 30 years, will the suitability of a particular area for the present market recognized wine style (terroir resilience) change over the next 30 years, is there a risk of losing suitability of a particular area for the presently market recognized wine style (terroir loss), is there an opportunity for a particular area to acquire suitability to produce a new wine style (terroir innovation).

From Flasks to Fine Glasses: Recent Trends in Wine Economics

• Research Paper - Keynote
• Published: 11 March 2021
• Volume 7 , pages 187–198, ( 2021 )

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• Anna Carbone   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0522-4049 1  

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This short literature review on wine economics introduces the Special Issue on wine of the Italian Economic Journal. Its goal is to provide non wine experts with an overall picture of recent trends of the wine sector and of major developments of the economic literature devoted to wine markets. As the wine market deeply changed through the last decades, the first section quickly outlines these changes. The second section revise literature on wine demand while the third section is on supply and the fourth is focused on policies.

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1 Introduction

The wine industry has changed dramatically in the last decades with an acceleration of change since the turn of the century onwards (Bargain et al. 2018 ; Unwin 2005 ). On the demand side, things have immensely changed as wine, once included in the everyday diet as a basic source of energy especially for peasants, farmers and working-class people, is now a hedonic good basically consumed in free time and in social occasions and with strong status symbol implications (Charters and Pettigrew 2008 ; Thach 2012 ). Wine is no more a slightly differentiated good often traded as a bulk commodity; wine is luxury; wine is cool and fashion. Especially in high income countries and/or higher income population groups, attributes related to culture, traditions, emotions, tourism and discovery, experience of novelty, self-identity, signalling of social status and so forth, contribute to motivations for purchase and consumption in addition to sensory features (Carlsen and Boksberger 2015 ; Mouret et al. 2013 ; Thach, 2012 ). Everywhere market segmentation is very pronounced. These aspects of wine demand are partly associated to the entry in the market of consumers living in countries where wine was not a traditional alcoholic beverage and it is now somehow regarded as a new exotic and trendy good connected to the general idea of the French savoir vivre and/or to the Italian style . In these countries per capita consumption of wine is rapidly increasing. Differently, in traditional producing/consuming countries the globalization wave leads consumers to drink less wine and more beer and spirits than in previous times. Here, per capita consumption follows a pronounced negative long run trend, like in Italy where figures dropped from more than 100 kg in the sixties to less than 40 kg in present years (Pomarici et al. 2021 ; Carbone et al. 2019 ; Lesschaeve 2007 ).

Furthermore, nowadays wine is no more only bought to be consumed: as in some cases its value increases with time, wine can be bought and kept just as other kind of investments and happens to be a somehow close substitute, not of beer and spirits as one may think, but rather as an alternative to art masterpieces or to other financial assets in portfolio diversification strategies (Masset and Henderson 2010 ).

The supply side also changed under the pressure of different forces. Many efforts have been devoted to a general quality upgrade and product differentiation in order to better meet demand. These have led to one of the most complex agri-food industries and one of the most sophisticated agri-food products. Production technology, though not much, has also evolved both in the vineyard and in the winery so that the whole process has changed. Cultivated grapes changed, with a substantial reduction in the number of varieties and the diffusion of a small number of ubiquity vines spread up all over. The wine itself has changed, not only due to the different grapes used for making wine but also thanks to a greater attention to quality and diversification as in the case of sustainable, organic, biodinamic, ethic attributes, just to make a few examples.

Grape production remains highly fragmented, especially in some countries, however, grape growers and wine producers did change from small households only partially market-oriented to larger specialized companies better embedded in (often global) value chains. The downstream stages of the value chain underwent a significant concentration process. The retail sector increased its average size and internal complexity and it has now in its hands the governance of some relevant upstream stages of the value chain (Folwell and Volanti 2003 ; Gwynne 2008 ). Furthermore, new actors entered in the scene such as wine technicians, oenologist, wine experts and wine journalists and communicators, and so on. These are all basically related to process management, quality improvements, process and product certification, communication and promotion (Hommerberg 2011 ). The experience and/or credence nature of wine attributes that are increasingly more relevant are at the basis of the strong need for providing information and quality guarantees along the chains as well as to the final consumer (Sherman and Tuten 2011 ).

New countries entered the industry also on the supply side. These are generally referred to as the New Wine World (NWW)—a group of countries scattered in different continents—as opposed to the Old Wine World (OWW) that refers to European producer countries (Bargain et al. 2018 ). There has also been a general shift towards former cooler places warmed-up by climate change.

Figure  1 shows the map of world major wine traders. Countries in red are net importers while countries in green are net exporters; among these the European ones are OWW countries while the remaining ones plus USA (in red because, despite being an important world exporter is a net wine importer) form the NWW group.

The world geography of wine trade

Thus, the new and wider geography of the wine industry relates to both demand and supply. This leads to a significant globalisation of the wine industry as a multifaceted phenomenon that encompasses a variety of features among which it is worth to recall: (i) demand globalisation and the diffusion of the so-called international grape varieties, also accompanied by the opposite trend of rediscovery of traditional local varieties; (ii) the “migration” of wine experts from OWW to NWW for disseminating traditional know-how and informal knowledge (Giuliani et al. 2011 ); (iii) foreign direct investments (together with other financial operations) of large companies (both within the sector and from other sectors) seeking at diversifying their portfolio, their production base, locations and/or activities (Giuliani et al. 2011 ); (iv) increased and re-shaped wine trade flows (Unwin 2005 ). As for trade flows, these changed, under the influence of the changes in supply and demand, in many regards and especially in quantities, values, diversification, and countries involved, including an increase of intra-industry trade (Carbone et al. 2021 ).

The rising interest around wine is also witnessed by the vast number of magazines, journals, TV shows, blogs, fairs and prizes that flourished all around the world. This growing interest of the public is paired by the greater attention that specialists and scientists in different fields devote to wine. This is true also in the field of economics and has led to many new specialized journals as well as to many articles about wine being published in general economics reviews just as the Special Issue hosted by the Italian Economic Journal (Vol. 7, Issue 2, 2021). The topics covered by this large stream of literature are manifold and form a heterogeneous body of contributions with respect to the underling theoretical paradigm and methodological approaches adopted. In the following pages I present a review of recent developments in wine markets as seen through the main contributions of the wine economic literature. The review focuses on some of the main strands of the recent literature developed by wine economists with no ambition of being exhaustive as this would be far beyond the scope and length of this article.

2 The Demand Side

In recent years, the analysis of wine demand and consumers’ behavior expanded enormously, with many bodies of literature crossing and cross-fertilizing each other. In particular, studies on consumers’ willingness to pay for different product attributes and on consumers’ attitudes, behavior and choice flourished (Galati et al. 2020 ). As wine has become a hedonic and highly differentiated good, the influence of quality in market functioning and in firms’ strategies, together with market segmentation, attract a big deal of attention in economic literature. In the last decade or so there has been a huge number of studies that apply the hedonic price model (HPM) introduced by Rosen ( 1974 ) to the wine market. The equations estimated in such works are much diversified, going from focusing on the price elasticity of grape varieties, alcohol content, vintages, ratings obtained by experts, on the market values for organic wines, for the different Geographical Indications (GIs), for different wine’s and producer’s typologies, label information, brand, etc. (Unwin 1999 ; Caracciolo et al. 2013 ; Carbone et al. 2014 ; Nerlove 1995 ; Oczkowski 1994 ; Schamel and Ros 2021 ). One interesting result of HPMs concerns the European wine GI system for which it is highlighted that the officially established quality pyramid is partly reversed in the market by wines with Protected Geographical Indication (PGI). In fact, PGI wines often get higher price premiums than the ones with the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) that should, in principle, benefit from the higher level of their quality certification (Cacchiarelli et al. 2016 ). Results provided by different estimations of the HPMs are not always aligned as they depend strictly on the wines included and on the kind and source of data used, thus confirming the deep segmentation of the market with the different segments that quite often act in idiosyncratic ways (Costanigro et al. 2007 ). One key controversial point concerns the relationship between experts’ ratings (i.e. assessed quality) and actual prices. Many of the cited studies find that prices are influenced by very many attributes—including sensorial as well as extrinsic features. Some of them affirm that quality—as assessed and ranked by expert s- can be, in turn, influenced by prices. Differently, Combris et al. ( 1997 ) find that assessed quality only depends on sensory attributes. I The major limitation of the HPM is that it assumes that estimated prices are market equilibrium prices. This implies that when consumers and/or producers look at empirical results they must keep in mind that prices, and thus attributed values, may change following their own behaviors, especially if they are large agents compared to the overall size of the market segment in which they operate (Oczkowski 1994 ).

In connection with the role of product differentiation and of quality, increasing attention is paid to analyzing consumers’ preferences and attitude towards wine, in relation to age, gender and other personal features. This includes the analysis of places of consumption, as house consumption generally involves buying in different shops and drinking different wines compared to off-house consuming occasions (Thach 2012 ; Hall et al. 2004 ). This also encompasses the many connections between wine purchase and consumption, on the one side, and tourism, on the other side (Pelegrín-Borondo et al. 2020 ). More in details, the strict connections between wine tourism and the search of typical products, the discovery of local cultural heritages and the desire for novelty and ethnic experiences are explored (Borondo et al. 2020). In general, the emotional sphere associated to buying and consuming behaviors forms a separate and additional theme of analysis that helps producers, experts in marketing and market analysists in understanding better consumers’ choice, behavior and satisfaction (Calvo-Porral et al. 2020 ; Danner et al. 2016 ).

Wine literature also devotes a great deal of attention to the influence of experts’ ratings on wine reputation and on consumers’ choice and willingness to pay. Indeed, experts’ evaluations have such a deep influence on the market that they can be considered as a further factor of market segmentation. More recent contributions tend to acknowledge differences in experts’ ratings not any more as an “accident” to be explained as an error linked to subjectivity or to the variability of the trials settings but rather as a desirable, or even necessary, mirror of the existence of different preferences and tastes among people. As a consequence, a market of expert’s evaluations (i.e. expert guides, websites, magazines, and the like), able to orient the wine market, arose. This is the reason why the so-called Ashenfelter Eq. (Ashenfelter et al. 1995 )—that has proven to be reliable in predicting the quality of a vintage based on freely available weather data—remains basically neglected by the wider public who prefers to rely on the somehow “exciting, enticing and mystic”, but more effective, storytelling approach of wine “gurus” such as Wine Spectator, Wine Advocate or Wine Enthusiast, just to cite a few among the most impacting ones (Hommerberg 2011 ). Successful oenologysts do not limit themselves to advice wineries on the production process, like it used to be in the past, they tend to be true deus-ex-machina of the market giving also key inputs to the creative process of conceiving new wines and to promoting them, not only to the final consumers (i.e. through articles, interviews, etc.) but also to all the many actors populating the complex supply chain and the distribution sector. Footnote 1

3 The Supply Side

In a situation in which the role of the retail sector in shaping production and consumption is definitely increasing, wine economists are also engaging themselves with the global value chain dimension of the sector (Gwynne 2008 ). Their goal is to understand to what extent efficiency and competitiveness of grape growers and of wineries are related to being embedded in global supply chains and at what conditions they can upgrade their positioning along these chains. One interesting example is provided by the Chilean experience (Gwynne 2008 ) that shows how producers managed to insert themselves in wine global value chains thanks to cultural, technological and managerial upgrade also in relation to the role of flying winemakers. One key element of this successful upgrade has been the capacity of the Chilean producers to form wine associations essentially with the scope of establishing relations with wine critics and journalists, scholars and experts and gaining visibility in trade journals and wine websites. This is a vehicle for raising their reputation, especially abroad, and for rapid export growth; it helped producers to become suppliers of large retailers in different countries and in establishing significant amounts of bargaining power within the value chain. The increased bargaining power of producers helps when negotiating prices but also when deciding about the shelf allocation of bottles (an increasingly crucial aspect for capturing consumers’ attention).

The South African wine sector tells a different story (Ponte and Ewert 2009 ) in which improving the production process, upgrading quality and enhancing the overall organization efficiency did not prove to be able to bring an upgrade of South African wineries along the global value chains. The authors find reasons for this outcome in a set of concurring factors such as the increasing demand for basic quality and bulk wines; the need for shorter lead times; the need of more flexibility in deliveries according to buyer specifications; significant casualization of labor (i.e. temporary and/or part-time jobs and subcontracted workers); and the request to participate to the costs for promotional activities of the retailer. The results are as follows: low visibility of producers in the final markets; their poor bargaining power and low margins. In this context, product downgrading may be the only options for keeping market shares. In particular, for South African wineries this has been considered the best option available, at least in the short run (Ponte and Ewert 2009 ). Footnote 2

This theme is partly connected with the study of the changing patterns of international trade and of countries’ competitive advantages. Wine trade has more than doubled from the early Nineties to the first decade of the new century, encompassing an increasing number of countries and reaching a share of more than 30% of total world production (Mariani et al. 2012 ; Pomarici et al. 2012). In the meanwhile, consuming, producing, importing and exporting countries have changed, completely transforming the world geography of wine (Carbone et al. 2019 ).

Supply analysis has recently been also focused on the study of the environmental impact of production and on the impact of climate change on production. These include the relationship between viticulture and climate change, together with the analysis of the climatic determinants of changes in the geography of wine production. Climate change encompasses the increase in average temperature and changes in rain frequencies and in their seasonal patterns, but it also includes weather variability favoring extreme events (Storchmann 2012 ). All these phenomena have various and non-fixed impacts on viticulture and wine making. Some authors have evidenced that yield is more or less a linear function of temperature in quite a wide range of temperatures, but above a certain threshold -which value depends on different parameters such as humidity, soil composition, etc.- it starts to show decreasing rates and then declines, making viticulture no more profitable (Wood ad Anderson 2006). Hence, global warming is pushing vine cultivation northwards and to higher elevations, while it is making difficult and more costly, if not impossible, to grow grapes in lower southern and more arid traditionally producing areas. As a consequence of climate change, there are winners and losers in the wine sector (Storchmann 2012 ). Somewhere, higher temperatures positively impact grape and wine quality and, this, in turn, raises consumers’ willingness to pay and, hence, raises prices (Jones et al. 2005). However, even within the same area, climate change allows and sometimes imposes different grape varieties to be grown and this usually have a deep impact on the production technology (both in the vineyard and in the winery), on production costs and on product quality. All this implies that only firms that are able to engage with technological change and to repositioning in the market while investing in rebuilding/restyling their reputation can survive in the new conditions. Clearly enough, there is also a collective dimension of the adaptation to the new climate conditions. This means that it is also relevant to analyze the impact of climate change at local and regional level. In fact, effective reactions to these changes are, in some cases, not only at the firm level but mainly at the level of the supply chain or of the local production system/cluster (Galbreath et al. 2016 ). Such changes and shifts in production have many implications under different respects. The most explored in economic literature are linked to technological change, to the impact on cost level and structure and to the necessity for newcomers to overcome entry barriers and specifically to build their own reputation in markets where product names—at the country, region, and firm level—do make a difference.

Innovation is not only related to climate change, but it is also a response of dynamic producers and of producing systems to the increasing demand for quality, to rapidly transforming consumers’ preferences and to the fast changes in the world competitive arena. In this sense, causes and consequences of technological change in terms of efficiency and competitiveness at the firm, supply chain and country level, are explored in one more stream of wine literature (Giuliani et al. 2011 ).

As wine cooperatives are quite common in many countries, two major issues in coop functioning are often explored in wine economics. Both are related to the provision of quality as this is often one of their major drawbacks. First, contractual relationships between the cooperative and its members are plagued by moral hazard issues and adverse selection problems that endanger grape quality. Different incentive schemes and deterrent systems are studied (M’Hand 2014). Second, because of this core internal problem, coops face difficulties in catching-up with quality in a market that, as already discussed, is every day more demanding in terms of product quality, variety and choice. Hence, whether coops can successfully establish their own reputation, and compete with private wineries in the marketplace and under what conditions, remain an open question (Schamel 2015 ).

4 Public regulation

The wine sector has historically been subject to extensive public control and strict administration policies including production subsidies, price guarantees and market stabilizers, but also, in different time periods, different kind of constraints and production limitations such as plantation restrictions and explantation premia (Meloni et al. 2019 ). Hence, it is not surprising that a great deal of attention in the field of economic studies has been devoted to the analysis of such policies and of their impacts on producers, consumers and trade, together with their consequences in terms of general welfare, public budget and taxpayers. At the same time, the tensions arising among different groups of stakeholders with diverging interests became paramount and paradigmatic of the sector (Meloni et al. 2019 ). Especially the EU wine policy—developed along many decades within the framework of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)—has been studied for long and compared to different policy approaches (i.e. the US), both with respect to market interventions and structural measures. The EU wine policy was born in the expansive and generous phase of the first CAP that basically sustained farmers income through market interventions that assured high prices. Over time, this policy created deep imbalances with excess supply in a contest of reducing per capita consumption and limited export possibilities. Afterwards, the CAP changed towards the search of a better market equilibrium through supply control while demand continued to decrease rapidly while consumers switched towards higher quality wines. The goal of rebalancing the market has been pursued in the frame of significant constraints posed by the need to sustain farmers’ revenues. The main instruments adopted were premiums for explanting vines and severe limitations to plant new vineyards. One side effect of these measures has been to alter deeply the demographic equilibrium of plantations with a dramatic increase of the share of very old plantations that have long lasting effects on the future vitality of the sector (Carbone et al. 2019 ). After undergoing a long and difficult reform policy -that, together with the general CAP, led to a more liberalized primary sector—more recently the EU wine policy encompasses environmental as well as social goals. These imply the introduction of restrictions on the cultivation techniques (i.e. use of pesticides) and consumers’ protection measures (i.e. wine labelling regulation) (Pomarici and Sardone 2020 ).

Wine policies are frequent also on the demand side. In fact, in many countries also consumption is subject to restrictions and taxation due to the health effects of alcohol both on long and on the short-term. Taxation varies greatly in kind and incidence: there are countries that impose more than 100% taxes and countries with almost 0% taxes on alcoholic beverages. However, alcohol taxation shows a generalized tendency to rise in recent times. Tax types also differ widely from high VAT rates to specific ad hoc alcohol taxes. These differences are explained with different arguments such as traditions, different degrees of public health concerns, different lobbying capacities of stakeholders (Anderson 2020 ; Corsinovi 2021 ). Besides, and in connection with the goals of the wine fiscal policies, some country opted for operating the retail sector by a State monopoly that seeks at a stricter control of consumption. Effects on consumption and on general welfare of these monopolies are discussed in different papers (Lai et al 2013 ; Dahlström, and Åsberg 2009 ; Wagenaar and Holder 1995).

Furthermore, as wine is basically an experience good that embeds also some credence attributes (i.e. product origin, the presence of additives, whether is organically produced, etc.) information asymmetries arise and may cause moral hazard and free riding behaviors in the marketplace as well as along the supply chain. Studies on the information asymmetries affecting the market look both at the demand and at the supply side (Saïdi et al. 2020 ; Anania and Nisticò 2004 ; Onur et al. 2020 ; Giraud et al. 2011 ). These also include a vast number of papers centered on the political economy of geographical Indications and of producers’ branding and labelling strategies. The two milestone contributions on which this rich strand of literature bases are: (i) Tirole’s “A theory of collective reputations (with applications to the persistence of corruption and to firm quality)” (Tirole 1996 ), that highlights the intrinsic collective dimension of reputation at every level; (ii) Josling’s “What’s in a name. The economics, law and politics of Geographical Indications for foods and beverages” (Josling 2006 ), that bases the political economy for analyzing Geographical Indications. This essay focuses on the trade-off between lowering transaction costs through the international harmonization of national systems, on the one side, and tailoring national GI law on domestic needs and traditions, on the other side. It also explores the extent to which global goods are created when multilateral coordination replaces national administration of GI regulation. Footnote 3

Anania and Nisticò also contributed to this body of literature with the article “Public regulation as a substitute for trust in quality food markets: what if the trust substitute cannot be fully trusted?” (2004) where they trace the bases for subsequent analysis of the effectiveness of public regulation on Geographical Indications when the public regulation is not perfectly designed and there is room for free riding behaviors of producers that undermine trust in the quality certification scheme.

5 Concluding Remarks

In concluding this short review, it is worthwhile trying to trace the most likely topics with which future research will engage. One recently emerging feature also for the wine sector is the rise of global value chains as a worldwide organization mode of supply. Despite wine production is only weakly segmentable if not at all, global companies affirmed their role as traders and retailers but also in the role of producers and packers thanks to relevant multinational investment campaigns. As a result, the wine sector will probably be increasingly polarized between a small group of huge leading groups -who benefit from low costs and financial advantages, significant flexibility, and widely established reputation- and a large number of small and very small producers -who can benefit from product diversification, deep roots in the terroir and a strong identity related to traditions. There is still much room for analyzing factors pushing towards one pole or the other one. Also, one emerging issue that calls for further analysis, strictly connected with the previous one, is the increasing role of e-commerce in the wine sector. On-line shopping encompasses both small producers and larger retailers operating at a global scale, however, it can be argued that the largest impact is potentially on small producers who, thanks to the shortened chain, increase their visibility in the final consumer market and are able to capture a major share of the value added.

Besides other major changes, the recent COVID-19 pandemic is having a deep influence on buying and consuming behaviors in the food sector as well as for wine. On-line shopping boosted as well as home consumption. With stringent limits to social life, wine reduced its role of good for social occasions. Hence, there is much role for reflections on the consequences that these changes will have on consumer choice and willingness to pay for wine.

The pandemic seems to have had an impact also on citizens’ perception of environmental issues. This may also reflect on consumers’ preferences about wine. For example, many wine environmental certifications that so far remained small market niches may attract more consumers. Thus, there will be the need to understand in which countries, to what extent and under which conditions, wine demand will shift towards eco-friendly produced wines.

In the meanwhile, policies will continue to change, and the effects of these changes will require continuous analysis. At the EU level, the liberalization process of the sector is traced but not yet completed nor its effects are yet over and need further assessments. Last, but not least, the ever changing geography of trade wars and of trade agreements will continue to fuel economic research devoted to the wine sector as this product is often marketed with different kinds of geographical Indications that are far of being all mutually recognized by the major trade players.

In particular, in the jargon of the wine sector “flying winemakers” are professionals, often oenologysts, with great expertise and experience who share their knowledge with wineries across the globe usually for one or few vintages. They supervise the whole production process, usually collaborating with the winery in creating new original wines. This allows wineries to benefit from top experts’ competences on viticulture, winemaking technology and market trends without long term commitments.

For a different approach to the supply chain analysis see the contribution of Romano et al. ( 2021 ) that provides original insights about frauds in the wine sector.

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Carbone, A. From Flasks to Fine Glasses: Recent Trends in Wine Economics. Ital Econ J 7 , 187–198 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-021-00151-6

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Received : 08 January 2021

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Published : 11 March 2021

Issue Date : July 2021

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-021-00151-6

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Why 70% of the world's wine-growing regions could soon be unsuitable to grow grapes

Rising global temperatures could change where the majority of the world's wine is produced as mid-latitude regions may no longer be able to grow grapes, according to researchers.

Up to 70% of current wine-producing regions could face a substantial risk of losing the suitability for wine-growing if global temperatures increase beyond 2 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, a review of more than 200 studies published Tuesday in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment found.

Many of the regions known for producing wine are located along the mid-latitude range, including California, southern France and northern Spain . But climate change could change the geography of wine production as warmer temperatures impact grape yield, grape composition at harvest and wine quality, according to the review.

The researchers segmented each continent and their wine-producing areas into macro-regions defined by specific climate-driven conditions, estimating that there is a substantial risk of unsuitability for 49% to 70% of existing wine regions, depending on the degree of global warming.

Extreme climate conditions, such as increased heatwaves and excessive droughts, could prevent premium wine production in 29% of the locations, according to the researchers.

"There comes a point, though, when it's so dry, it's so hot, that it's very unlikely that it's gonna be sustainable," he said.

However, Greg Gambetta, professor of viticulture at Bordeaux Sciences Agro and the Institute for the Science of the Vine and Wine in France and co-author of the paper, emphasized that grapes are a "hearty" crop that can often withstand extremes.

"They grow everywhere, from the deserts of Israel, for example, all the way to tropical regions," he told ABC News.

Places that are known for a particular climate that produces excellent wines, such as Bordeaux, France, may experience an identity shift if warmer temperatures no longer allow consistent production, Gambetta said.

Other existing wine-growing regions farther north, such as Washington state and northern France, could experience enhanced production with higher temperatures, the review found. New suitable areas might emerge at higher latitudes as well, such as the United Kingdom that is farther south.

"In all these countries, in the Netherlands and in northern Europe, where people never considered really growing wine grapes, people are now starting to consider it," he said.

As viticulture expands into new regions, impacts on natural ecosystems and biodiversity will need to be monitored so any negative impacts can be mitigated, the authors cautioned.

J.J. Huber, winemaker and owner of the Laguna Canyon Winery in Southern California, told ABC News that climate change is "always gonna be a concern going forward" for the wine industry.

While Huber has not yet noticed any changes in wine quality despite drought conditions in the region, he is aware of current research that will study dry farming and how to adapt to a future when there is less water availability.

"It's not something that we can answer today," Huber said.

The degree of these changes in suitability will strongly depend on the level of temperature rise, the researchers said.

Climate change will drive major changes in global wine production in the near future, which will require both winegrowers and consumers to adapt to warmer temperatures, the authors concluded.

There is a lot of adaptation that can occur now, Gambetta said.

Some regions, especially in Europe, will need to develop irrigation systems, in the event that record-hot temperatures and drought limit water availability, he said.

Growers will also need to manage their vineyards in a way that they can change and evolve with warmer temperatuers and the extreme weather conditions that will accompany it, Gambetta said.