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Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

Soufrière Hills Volcano , Montserrat, West Indies. Synopsis of events by former Montserrat resident, photographer and Author Lally Brown.

Where is Montserrat? Montserrat is a small tropical island of approximately 40 sq. miles in the Caribbean, fifteen minutes flying time from Antigua. It is a British Overseas Territory and relies on UK Government aid money to survive. It is of volcanic origin with the Soufrière Hills above the capital of Plymouth the highest point of the island.

How and when did the volcano erupt? Prior to 1995 the volcano in the Soufrière Hills had been dormant for 350 years but on the morning of 18th July 1995 steam and fine ash could be seen coming from the flanks of the Soufrière Hills accompanied by a roaring sound, described as being like a jet engine. In the capital of Plymouth there was a strong smell of ‘bad eggs’ the hydrogen sulphide being emitted by the awakening volcano.

Montserrat was totally unprepared. No-one had ever imagined the dormant volcano would erupt. The Soufrière Hills was the breadbasket of the island where farmers worked the fertile agricultural land, while the busy capital and island port of Plymouth nestled at the foot of the hills.

Scientists arrived from the University of the West Indies to assess the situation. They said the volcano was producing ‘acoustic energy explosions’ at approximately half-hour intervals sending ash and vapour three to four hundred metres into the air.

What happened next? Before July 1995 Montserrat was a thriving tourist destination with a population of 10,000 people but over several weeks there was a mass exodus from the island and a run on the banks with people withdrawing cash.

Several areas near the vent that had opened up in the hillside were declared exclusion zones and residents were evacuated to the safe north of the island into schools and churches.

It was evident the volcano was becoming more active when a series of small earthquakes shook the island. Heavy rain from passing hurricanes brought mudflows down the hillsides into Plymouth. Sulphide dioxide emissions increased, a sure sign of heightened activity.

The scientists hoped to be able to give a six hour warning of any eruptive activity but when they discovered the magma was less than 1 km below the dome they said this could not be guaranteed, saying there was a 50% chance of an imminent eruption. An emergency order was signed by the Governor and new exclusion zones were drawn with people evacuated north.

The years 1995 to 1997 The Soufrière Hills volcano became increasingly active and more dangerous.

Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) was established to monitor activity and advise the Government.

December 1995 saw the first pyroclastic flow from the volcano.

The capital of Plymouth was evacuated for the last time in April 1996.

Acid rain damaged plants.

Two-thirds of Montserrat became the new exclusion zone , including the fertile agricultural land.

Population dropped to 4,000 with residents leaving for UK or other Caribbean islands.

Frequent heavy ashfalls covered the island with blankets of thick ash.

On the seismic drums at the MVO swarms of small hybrid earthquakes frequently registered. Also volcano-tectonic earthquakes (indicating fracture or slippage of rock) and ‘Broadband’ tremors (indicating movement of magma).

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MVO Seismograph printout Dec 1997

‘Spines’ grew rapidly out of the lava dome to heights of up to 15 metres before collapsing back.

Rainfall caused dangerous mudflows down the flanks of the Soufrière Hills.

Temporary accommodation was built to house evacuees living in churches and schools.

25th June 1997 Black Wednesday For a period of twenty minutes at 12.59 pm the volcano erupted without warning with devastating consequences. A massive pyroclastic flow swept across the landscape and boulders up to 4 metres in diameter were thrown out of the volcano. Over 4 sq.km was destroyed including nine villages and two churches. The top 300ft had been blown off the lava dome. Tragically nineteen people were caught in the pyroclastic flow and died.

Post Office and War Memorial 1997

Lateral blast December 1997 Midnight on Christmas Day 1997 the MVO reported that hybrid earthquakes had merged into a near-continuous signal clipping the sides of the seismic drum. At 3am on Boxing Day there was a massive collapse of the dome. Approximately 55 million cubic metres of dome material shot down the flanks of the volcano into the sea. Travelling at speeds of 250-300 km per hour it took less than a minute to slice a 7 km wide arc of devastation across southern Montserrat. The evacuated villages of Patrick’s and O’Garros were blasted out of existence. A delta 2 km wide spilled into the sea causing a small tsunami .

Police checkpoint Montserrat

March 1999 After a year of apparent inactivity at the volcano the Scientists declared the risk to populated areas had fallen to levels of other Caribbean islands with dormant volcanoes. Arrangements were made to encourage overseas residents to return. Plans were put in place to reopen the abandoned airport.

2000 to 2003 One year after the volcano had been declared dormant there was a massive collapse of the dome, blamed on heavy rainfall.

In July 2001 another massive collapse of the dome described as ‘a significant eruption’ caused airports on neighbouring Caribbean islands to close temporarily due to the heavy ashfall they experienced. A Maritime Exclusion Zone was introduced around Montserrat and access to Plymouth and the airport prohibited.

Soufrière Hills volcano was now described as a ‘persistently active volcano’ that could continue for 10, 20 or 30 years. (ie possibly to 2032).

In July 2003 ‘the worst eruption to date’ took place, starting at 8 pm 12th July and continuing without pause until 4 am morning of 13th July. Over 100 metres in height disappeared from the mountain overnight. It was the largest historical dome collapse since activity began in July 1995.

A period of relative quiet followed.

2006 The second largest dome collapse took place with an ash cloud reaching a record 55,000 metres into the air. Mudflows down the flanks of the Soufrière Hills was extensive and tsunamis were reported on the islands of Guadeloupe and Antigua.

Another period of relative quiet followed.

Soufriere Hills volcano 2007

2010 Another partial dome collapse with pyroclastic flows reaching 400 metres into the sea and burying the old abandoned airport. There was extensive ashfall on neighbouring islands.

Again followed by a period of relative quiet.

2018 Although the Soufrière Hills volcano is described as ‘active’ it is currently relatively quiet. It is closely monitored by a team at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO). They advise the Government and residents on the state of the volcano.

Negative effects of the volcano:

· Approximately two-thirds of Montserrat now inaccessible (exclusion zone);

· Capital of Plymouth including hospital, government buildings, businesses, schools etc. buried under ash;

· Fertile farming land in the south in exclusion zone and buried under ash;

· Population reduced from 10,000 to 4,000;

· Businesses left Montserrat;

· Tourism badly affected;

· Concern over long term health problems due to ash;

· Volcano Stress Syndrome diagnosed;

· Huge financial cost to British Tax Payer (£400 million in aid);

· Loss of houses, often not insured;

· Relocation to the north of Montserrat by residents from the south.

Positive effects:

· Tourists visiting Montserrat to see the volcano, MVO and Plymouth, now described as ‘Caribbean Pompeii’;

· Geothermal energy being investigated;

· Sand mining for export;

· Plans for a new town and port in north;

· New housing for displaced residents built;

· New airport built (but can only accommodate small planes);

· New Government Headquarters built;

· Businesses opening up in the north of the island;

· Ferry to Antigua operating.

Lally Brown

You can follow Lally Brown on Twitter.

If you are interested in reading a dramatic eyewitness account of life with this unpredictable and dangerous volcano then the book ‘THE VOLCANO , MONTSERRAT AND ME’ by Lally Brown is highly recommended. You can order a paper back or Kindle version on Amazon .

“As time moves on and memories fade, this unique, compelling book will serve as an important and accurate first-hand record of traumatic events, faithfully and sensitively recounted by Lally Brown.”

Prof. Willy Aspinall Cabot Professor in Natural Hazards and Risk Science, Bristol University.

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Soufrière Hills 1995-present

Soufrière Hills in Montserrat has been erupting since 1995.

Chronic Medical Aspects

Crystalline silica in volcanic ash, when inhaled, adversely affects health..

The extended eruption of a lava dome at Soufrière Hills Volcano that began in 1995 generated large amounts of fine ash by (1) explosive events from the dome; and (2) frequent collapse of unstable parts of the growing dome that generated pyroclastic flows and associated plumes of ash. A detailed study of ash from both types of events determined that the sub-10 micron fraction of ash from the pyroclastic flows consisted of 10-24 percent crystalline silica , the highest yet documented for a historical eruption (Baxter and others, 1999). In contrast, the sub-10 micron fraction of ash from the explosive events consisted of 3-6 percent crystalline silica. The free silica minerals are produced within the lava dome over a period of many days or weeks.

Monitoring of the concentration of airborne respirable dust and ash around the volcano beginning in August 1997 showed that concentrations of ash have regularly exceeded 50 micrograms/m3 per 24-hour rolling average in areas subject to frequent ashfall. The exposures to cristobalite sometimes reached the 0.05 mg/m3 averaged over an 8-hour workday. Also, the monitoring consistently showed increased concentrations of airborne dust whenever there was human activity.

This study raises concern that exposure to long-lived eruptions of lava domes that produce persistent ashfall over many years may result in adverse health effects in affected communities.

Water Supply

The eruptions of Soufrière Hills during 1997 produced chemical contamination of rainwater and surface water. Water sampling in January 1997 indicated highly acidic water with high concentrations of sulphates, chloride and fluorides. Similar results were recorded until June 1997 although all fell within World Health Organization recommended levels for all measured components (see Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program ).

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Published: 15 July 2022

Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent

E. P. Joseph ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4836-8715 1 ,
M. Camejo-Harry ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5979-7497 1 , 2 ,
T. Christopher 1 , 3 ,
R. Contreras-Arratia ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2713-5397 1 ,
S. Edwards ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7536-4480 1 ,
O. Graham ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9468-927X 1 ,
M. Johnson 1 ,
A. Juman 1 ,
J. L. Latchman 1 ,
L. Lynch 1 ,
V. L. Miller ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1962-9223 1 , 3 ,
I. Papadopoulos ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2923-3070 1 ,
K. Pascal 1 , 3 ,
R. Robertson ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5245-2787 1 ,
G. A. Ryan ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9469-0107 1 , 3 ,
A. Stinton 1 , 3 ,
R. Grandin 4 ,
I. Hamling ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4324-274X 5 ,
M-J. Jo 6 ,
J. Barclay ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6122-197X 7 ,
P. Cole ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2964-311X 8 ,
B. V. Davies ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5771-2488 7 &
R. S. J. Sparks 9

Nature Communications volume 13 , Article number: 4129 ( 2022 ) Cite this article

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Environmental impact
Natural hazards
Volcanology

A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9–22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.

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Introduction.

A major goal of volcanology is to forecast changes in the behaviour of volcanoes, particularly the onset and conclusion of eruptions and behavioural transitions, such as between explosive and effusive activity 1 , 2 , 3 . Transitions pose challenges for decision-makers in the management of ongoing volcanic crises; >75% of recent fatalities are associated with changing eruptive behaviour, where all or some individuals were inside declared hazard zones at that point 4 . The 2020–2021 La Soufrière volcanic eruption in St. Vincent, illustrates these challenges.

Crisis science is defined as conducting scientific research during a crisis, which involves data acquisition, analysis, interpretation and archiving of scientific and technical resources, as well as organising logistics, staffing and communicating findings with stakeholders and the public 5 . Volcanic crises include unrest, eruption and any aftermath. The core goal of observatory staff during crises is to acquire, analyse interpret and communicate data in a way that assists local populations and civil protection agencies with their decision-making 6 .

La Soufrière volcano (13.33°N; 61.18°W), located in northern St. Vincent, is a 1220 m high stratovolcano with a summit crater ~1.6 km in diameter and 300–600 m deep 7 . Historical eruptions of basaltic-andesitic magmas typically last many months 8 , 9 and occur in both the absence and presence of a crater lake. Eruptions have been both explosive (1718 7 , 1812, 1902–03, 1979) and effusive (1784, 1971–72). The most recent 1979 eruption ended with a 120 m × 860 m lava dome emplaced in the crater. As in many volcanoes worldwide, fatalities are associated with rapid accelerations in explosive activity 4 exemplified by the 1812 and 1902–03 St. Vincent eruptions.

Precursory unrest was markedly low-level prior to the 1971–1972 and 1979 eruptions, which began with <24 h of instrumentally recorded precursory seismicity 9 . Since the 1800s, several episodes of unrest without eruption (crater lake temperature changes, felt seismicity) have also occurred.

Increased background seismicity at La Soufrière from 1 November into December 2020 prompted an inspection of the crater by staff of the Soufrière Monitoring Unit (SMU), of St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO), on 16 November 2020. Minor changes in fumarolic activity on the dome and the small lake occupying the eastern crater floor were noted. Seismicity reduced after 23 December 2020.

Surface activity was first recognised on 27 December 2020, when the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) detected a thermal anomaly inside the summit crater. On 29 December 2020, thermal anomalies and greyish-white emissions were observed. SMU staff discovered a new dome located in the west south-west sector of the crater, adjacent to the 1979 dome. Effusive activity continued for three months, with a rapid increase in effusion rate in early April 2021 leading to the explosive phase between 9 and 22 April. Thereafter, activity was limited to moderate SO 2 outgassing and generally low-level seismicity.

Here we describe monitoring data and the evolution of scientific interpretations. We also reflect on the information most critical to the generation of actionable forecasts of eruptive transition in a ‘real world’ setting.

Results and discussion

Network strengthening.

Overall emergency management and scientific support for La Soufrière volcano were coordinated by the staff of The University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre (UWI SRC) in Trinidad, with assistance from the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) as well as regional and international collaborating partners. Initial observations and local support were provided by the SMU.

Limited resources and the COVID pandemic resulted in a much-reduced monitoring capacity at the onset of unrest (November 2020), with one working seismic station (SVB) 9 km from the volcano, and one continuous GPS station (SVGB) (Fig. 1 ). SRC reactivated the local observatory in late December 2020 and upgraded the monitoring network (Fig. 1 ). Eight broadband seismic stations were operating by the end of February 2021 and the ground deformation network was augmented by four continuous GPS sites (SVGR, SVGS, SVGF, SVGG) in addition to re-occupation of two campaign benchmark sites (JCWL and TBRK) (Fig. 1 ). A 9-prism EDM target was installed on the southern crater rim and weekly measurements attempted from six locations. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) processing of available ALOS-2 and Sentinel-1 images augmented ground deformation monitoring. Sentinel-2 and PlanetLabs satellite imaged both the crater and colour changes of vegetation on the volcano’s flanks. Cameras installed at the Belmont Observatory (3 January 2021) and crater rim (24 January 2021), multispectral and radar satellite imagery, oblique aerial and terrestrial photographs and UAV aerial photography and photogrammetry allowed visual observations to document dome growth. From 14 January 2021, gas emissions were measured using a Multi-component Gas Analysing System (MultiGAS) and Ultra-Violet (UV) spectroscopy.

Hazard zones illustrate the potential for ground-based volcanic impacts such as pyroclastic flows and surges, tephra fall, ash fall and lahars that may impact the defined areas 7 . The boundaries of the zones are based on the past incidence of the hazards and areas of maximum projected extent, in addition, experience of these hazards at similar volcanoes is combined with theoretical considerations of mass discharge rates of magma, wind direction and morphology. The effects of effusive eruptions have had little impact on the determination of hazard zones.

Seismic monitoring

Seismicity increased slightly on station SVB in November 2020, but remained modest until 23 December 2020, averaging two events per day, with a maximum magnitude of 3.3 Mt and no reported felt events (Fig. 2 ).

Seismicity data: daily (bars) and cumulative (teal line) seismicity observed and a marker on the first important increase (17 January). The bars in blue represent seismic events related to fluid dynamics (low-frequency and dome emplacement) and the bars in dark red represent VT events. RSAM values: calculated with 1 min windows and no overlap; they correlate with VT swarms and explosive phase. Moreover, it shows evidence of lahar signals after the explosive phase. Deformation: radial extension from the vent observed at station SVGB, 9 km away from the crater, and associated uncertainties computed with GAMIT/GLOBK 48 . It shows a total movement of 62 mm towards the crater at the end of the explosive phase. C/S tot (CO 2 /H 2 S) concentration ratios (ppm) in the plume from MultiGAS measurements: First two data points evidence only H 2 S content, the remaining are a combination of H 2 S and SO 2 . The arrow shows the onset of explosive activity. Dome extrusion data: cumulative volume extruded in black line with an extrapolation until 6 April, extrusion rate in teal dots; the arrow marks the onset of rapid dome inflation as observed by a remote camera. The lowest bar shows the corresponding alert level for each day. In addition, vertical dashed lines show the onset of the effusive phase (orange) and the red area corresponds to the explosive phase.

Although dome extrusion started on 27 December 2020, no seismicity was recorded until 6 January 2021, with an average of two events per day up to 17 January, when there was a sharp increase to 60 events per day. Subsequently, low frequency (0.5–5 Hz) 10 , 11 events were observed and interpreted as related to the dome emplacement; the events were recorded only by the closest stations indicating a shallow source. Volcano-tectonic (VT) swarms occurred during 23–24 March 2021 (226 events) with >95% located at depths shallower than 5 km; and 5–6 April 2021 (476 events) with an abrupt transition to deeper locations (Fig. 3 ), which was interpreted as a new volume of magma ascending from ~10 km depth.

a Epicentres calculated showing concentric distribution. b Temporal evolution of depths during 23–24 March, most seismicity is shallower than 5 km. c Temporal evolution of depths during 5–6 April, seismicity is shallower than 5 km until 18:00 UTC on 5 April, when locations transitioned to deeper levels.

Banded tremor 12 , of increasing magnitude, began around noon (UTC time) on 8 April 2021, recorded by the closest stations at intervals of ~2.5 h (Fig. 4a ). This change was interpreted as indicating an imminent explosive phase 13 , with a source attributed to the excitation of shallow gas and fluid pockets 14 , 15 . The spectral content up to 10 Hz suggested that the banded tremor consisted of merging VT events (Fig. 4a ). The 8 th cycle transitioned to continuous tremor with increasing amplitude and stable frequency content over time (Fig. 4 ), suggesting repetitive events at a constant rate 13 . The first explosion was recorded at 12:41 UTC on 9 April, followed by a period of sustained, but pulsing, explosive activity and tremor from 16:00 UTC on 9 April to 06:00 UTC on 10 April (Fig. 4 ).

a Vertical time series at station SVV, RSAM and spectrogram showing the main features of the signal during the first 3 days: banded tremor, continuous and discrete explosions with exponential decays. b Vertical time series at station SVV, RSAM and spectrogram showing the main features of the whole explosive phase: increasing inter-explosion time, tremor build up to the last explosion and an abrupt end of the low-frequency tremor two hours after the referenced explosion. It also shows a lahar signal around 8 h after.

The time series, RSAM and spectrograms of the explosive phase is shown in Fig. 4 . The initially rapid rate of explosions and associated tremor made individual seismic events difficult to identify. Four stations stopped transmitting data during the first 36 h of the explosion sequence. Spectrograms for the explosive phase (Fig. 4a ) show a larger amplitude but the same stable frequency as during the build-up. Each explosion lasted between 3–23 min, followed by 2–3 h of exponential decay in tremor amplitude (green arrows in Fig. 4a ). Over the following two weeks, the pattern of seismic activity included episodes of short tremor bands accompanied by enhanced venting or explosive activity. Episodes of tremor were interspersed with long-period and hybrid earthquakes, with their rates of occurrence gradually decreasing prior to a period of high-level tremor on 22 April. The last explosion on 22 April was preceded by several hours of increasing-amplitude tremor (Fig. 4b ), with an abrupt end of low-frequency tremor shortly after the explosion. Seismic activity steadily declined from 22 April to early May, from an average of 354 events/day to 24 events/day. Up to November 2021, the seismicity remained sparse, dominated by low-frequency events.

Ground deformation monitoring

Forewarning of the effusive eruption was not recognised on the existing continuously operating GPS network (Fig. 2 ). However, a <10 cm line-of-sight shortening signal was observed in the crater area using ALOS-2 and Sentinel-1 radar, sometime between 19 and 31 December 2020. The associated deformation source was modelled as a ~63,000 m 3 dike intrusion, shallower than ~500 m deep (Fig. 5 ). Subsequently, no deformation was detected from the SAR platforms. No deformation was detected on the EDM time series during the effusive phase.

These visualisations use the Grandin and Delorme (2021) DSM. a Interferograms for descending (2020/02/25–2021/01/26, path 131, frame 3350) and ascending (2020/01/15–2021/01/13, path 36, frame 250) ALOS-2 radar. One fringe represents 11.4 cm in the line of sight; b Interferograms for descending pass (2020/12/07–2020/12/31, track 156, incidence 44.5°) and ascending (2020/12/07–2020/12/31, track 164, incidence 43.9°) Sentinel-1 radar. One fringe represents 2.8 cm in the line of sight; c Synthetic deformation predicted by an Okada dislocation dipping vertically (along-strike length: 600 m, along-dip width: 700 m, upper edge depth: 15 m), opening with a potency of 63,000 m 3 .

Onset of the explosive phase was accompanied by a rapid deflation recorded on the continuous GPS network on 9 April 2021 (Fig. 2 ). Between 9 and 22 April 2021, the SVGB station (Fig. 2 ) measured an overall cumulative horizontal displacement of ~43 mm northward and ~37 mm eastward and a subsidence of ~81 mm. Using a Mogi point source 16 , the associated surface deformation was modelled by migration of ~50 × 10 6 m 3 of magma from a source at ~6 km depth. After explosive activity ended, slow deflation was observed over several months.

Gas and geochemical monitoring

Gas measurements in January 2021, using UV spectrometer and MultiGAS instruments , detected no SO 2 . The concentration ratio (ppm) of carbon to total sulphur (C/S t ) was measured by MultiGAS at the summit (Fig. 2 ). A C/S t (=CO 2 /H 2 S) ratio of 85 and 30.6 (Fig. 2 ) was obtained on 14 and 15 January, respectively. Minor SO 2 (<1 ppm) was detected in February 2021, with a C/S t (=SO 2 + H 2 S) concentration ratio of 10 measured on 1 February and 11 on 18 February, before increasing to ~20 on 23 March 2021. Plume compositions during the effusive phase were dominated by a hydrothermal signature (Fig. 6 ). On the afternoon of 8 April, a coastal traverse yielded the first detection of SO 2 in the gas plume with a mass flux of 80 tonnes/day. The TROPOMI instrument on board Sentinel-5P also detected SO 2 during an overpass on 8 April at 17:25 UTC, confirming the change in plume composition. During the explosive phase (9–22 April) only satellite (Sentinel-5P) SO 2 measurements were possible, with values ranging from 2.76 × 10 5 tonnes/day on 10 April to 331 tonnes/day on 22 April. Over the two months following the explosive phase, coastal traverse measurements of SO 2 flux decreased from ~800 to ~200 tonnes/day, and then maintained this average through to November 2021.

Ternary diagram of SO 2 *3-CO 2 /2-H 2 S*5 showing the plume compositions obtained during the extrusive phase. HD hydrothermal dominated, DHM deep hydrothermal magmatic, SHM shallow hydrothermal magmatic, DM deep magmatic, SM shallow magmatic. Boundaries were obtained from the Central American Volcanic arc.

On 16 January 2021, samples were collected from the front of the lava dome. In April 2021, scoria and clasts from pyroclastic density currents emplaced during the explosive eruptions were sampled. XRF analysis of major elements shows both have basaltic andesite bulk compositions (Fig. 7 ).

TAS classification diagram (‘Total Alkalis vs Silica’) to compare the composition of the 2020–2021 dome and other explosive products with other eruptions of La Soufrière, St. Vincent. Results were obtained by XRF at the University of Plymouth.

Preliminary petrographic analyses of the dome rocks indicated a phenocryst assemblage similar to past eruptions, consisting of plagioclase, clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides with sparse olivine and abundant gabbroic clots 17 (Fig. 8 a, b ). Where present, olivine is invariably heavily altered, with symplectites intergrowth of forsterite and Fe-oxides common (Fig. 8b ). Groundmass textures show evidence of late-stage disequilibrium, including groundmass crystals with localised alteration of orthopyroxene microlites to Fe and Mg oxides (Fig. 8c ). Dome rocks are vesicular with textural evidence for fracturing and annealing of fluid pathways (Fig. 8a, d ).

Five full thin section image maps, acquired on a Zeiss Gemini 300 SEM at the University of East Anglia, UK, were generated from clasts sampled in January 2021 from the growing dome and analysed to identify common textures as displayed in a – d . a Image showing vesicular nature of the dome sample (vesicles in black) with examples of the crystal population labelled: plagioclase (fsp), clinopyroxene (cpx), Fe-Ti oxides (ox) and gabbroic clots (outlined by yellow dashed line). b Example of heavily degraded olivine (ol) (blue box) shows close-up of this texture. c Examples of localisation of degradation of orthopyroxene crystals to oxides (dashed turquoise line in c ). Higher levels of degradation observed close to larger oxides (e.g. image c and ci, x) comprises ~5% of each thin section. Elsewhere, orthopyroxenes are un-degraded (cii, y). d Example of a plagioclase phenocryst (fsp) with a fracture that has been later filled by melt and crystals, this is observed several times across the five sections analysed. Red box shows a close-up of this structure showing clinopyroxene, oxides and glass infilling the fracture.

Dome growth and other visual observations

Initially, the new dome grew uniformly in all directions, reaching 70 m in height, subsequently elongating in the NW-SE direction (Fig. 9 ). Gas vented through a small depression in the dome’s summit. The shape evolved to an elliptical lava coulee with two distinct lobes, confined within the moat between the 1979 dome and the inner wall of the Summit Crater (Fig. 9 ). Rock fall activity from the margins was very limited, while no deformation of the crater floor was observed in flow fronts. Distinct marginal levees developed with radial and linear flow patterns appearing on the lava surface. Thermal images on 16 January 2021 yielded surface temperatures of up to 600 °C.

A map of the summit crater of La Soufriere, St Vincent, showing full and partial footprints for the new lava dome that first appeared on 27 December 2020. Footprints were extracted from multispectral and radar satellite imagery, oblique aerial and terrestrial photographs and drone surveys. Background is pre-eruption imagery that shows the 1979 lava dome inside the summit crater.

Extrusion rates calculated for periods from 1 to 34 days varied between 0.95 and 2.65 m 3 /s ± 0.59 m 3 /s with a long-term average of ~1.85 ± 0.14 m 3 /s (Fig. 2 ). The cumulative volume reached ~13 × 10 6 m 3 by 19 March 2021, when the dome measured 912 m long, 243 m wide and 105 m high. Extrapolating the linear trend through to 9 April suggests a final volume of ~18 × 10 6 m 3 . On 6 April, observation via the installed camera indicated a rapid increase in dome height with incandescence becoming visible over the crater rim from the Belmont Observatory (Fig. 1 ) on the evening of 8 April. Cyclic gas emissions at the central vent occurred correlated with the banded tremor. During the explosive activity, the new lava dome and significant parts of the 1979 lava dome were destroyed, as confirmed by satellite imagery on 10 April from ICEYE (02:02 UTC) and Capella (14:03 UTC).

As explosive activity intensified close observation of discrete events became more difficult. By 12 April pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) had descended several valleys on the southern and western flanks of the volcano and reached the sea. Following that, enhanced venting or Vulcanian-style explosive activity episodically occurred until 22 April. Some explosions generated PDCs in valleys on the western flanks of the volcano.

Crisis response: warning and decision-making systems

The SRC supports local authorities for strengthening preparedness and communicating volcanic hazards through product development (e.g., integrated volcanic hazard maps). The map for St. Vincent (Fig. 1 ) is a colour-coded depiction of the expected impact of volcanic hazards across the island 7 . The volcanic alert level system (VALS, see Supplementary Information ) translates the volcanic activity level into required actions during volcanic unrest. Operational constraints in country meant that any increased likelihood of an explosive eruption needed to be communicated 24–48 h before onset to enable successful evacuation.

Distinguishing rapid accelerations in activity after the onset of an eruption, in particular, transitions to an explosive eruption, are a globally recognised forecasting challenge 18 . It is also important to recognise when the probability of explosions decreases, to lower the alert level. Here we identify the practical challenges in recognising and communicating these changes. We highlight the importance of preparedness, diverse forms of communication, and structured approaches to the interpretation of scientific data, development of evidence-informed forecasts and assessment of risk during volcanic crises.

Short-term contribution to decision-making: assessment of risk

Current uncertainty in understanding volcanic processes contribute to a variety of opinions on causative mechanisms and prognoses, particularly during an evolving crisis. In addition, the aleatoric uncertainty associated with the complex behaviour of volcanic systems requires caution against a deterministic interpretation that over-emphasises one specific outcome 19 . SRC used the framework of a structured expert elicitation 20 , 21 around a range of scenarios, to generate both consensus (a collective ‘most likely’ prognosis) and to represent the diversity of opinions.

Weekly elicitations (January to early March 2021) favoured continuation of effusive activity (~80%) each time. The likelihood of an escalation to explosive activity in the following weeks remained at median probability of ~10%. However, following the first VT swarm (23–24 March), elicited estimates for a transition to explosive activity doubled to a median probability of ~20%. With the appearance of banded tremor (8 April), elicited probabilities of explosive activity tripled to a median value of ~60%. The authorities of SVG were alerted to this increase in volcanic activity. The alert level was raised to Red on 8 April at 18:00 UTC triggering the evacuation of ~16,000 persons from the Red and Orange Zones, prior to the start of explosive activity on 9 April at 12:41 UTC, with no reported serious injuries or loss of life.

The visual observations of declining surface activity, lowered seismic activity and declining gas output, coupled with the slow deflation signal observed since 22 April, were key drivers for the lowering of the alert level to Orange on 6 May.

Longer-term contribution to decision-making: risk awareness, preparedness and communication

Hazard assessments and analysis of past events have continuously been updated in response to new understanding 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 . Further, improvements in communication of improved understanding of hazards have been assessed and implemented in hazard planning by NEMO and SRC. The Volcano Ready Community Project (VRCP) led by SRC in collaboration with NEMO, launched in April 2018 and completed in April 2021, targeted twelve northernmost communities of St. Vincent in the Red and Orange hazard zones of the most recent volcanic hazard map 7 . The VRCP, enabled community plans to be drafted and integrated into the national response mechanisms prior to the 2020–2021 eruption.

Communication pathways: transition from extrusive to explosive

Communication of messaging between SRC and NEMO was harmonised. A continuous flow of near real-time information was provided to the public and stakeholders about volcanic activity, hazards, and risk reduction. These communications maintained credibility in the monitoring capability of SRC 27 , 28 . A similar communication strategy employed by the USGS, in response to the 2014–2015 Kilauea volcano lava-flow crisis, was shown to be a highly effective approach 29 and aligns with volcano observatory best practices for operations during crises 6 .

Based on best practice and evidence, risk communication products were developed to target different learning styles, media platforms and preferences 28 . These products included visual, print and audio products, and were combined with live scientific presentations during media interviews and to special interest groups. Social media schedules and posts were coordinated, while SRC scientists on island participated in daily activity updates on local television and radio stations, and provided cabinet briefings and updates to decision-makers. Scientists participated in virtual and drive-through community meetings for Red Zone residents with live online streaming and simulcast on local television and radio. An important facet of uncertainty during eruptions is dealing with misinformation and rumours. The strategy of maintaining a continuous presence on social media (Fig. 10 ) and the use of FAQs and short interviews allowed growing concerns or misapprehensions to be addressed. The frequency of these communications was influenced by changes in the ongoing activity. International scientists were also encouraged to amplify existing messages and use SRC materials in discussing the eruption with their local media.

Summary of UWI SRC communication strategy and response throughout the 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St. Vincent eruption.

Another important dimension was systematised internal communication. External contributions of data were facilitated by a team lead who was responsible for internal communication and coordinating data requests. This approach also facilitated international collaborations and engagement with academic scientists, which supported the SRC to develop conceptual models.

With the start of the explosive phase of the eruption, social media posts were still the primary tool used by SRC to communicate with the public. Scientific bulletins were shared directly on these platforms, with the addition of voice notes shared via mobile networks. Daily activity updates on local radio and television stations continued. Visual, print and audio products now also focussed on explanations of, and recommended responses to, the primary volcanic hazards (pyroclastic density currents, ash fall and lahars) being observed.

Crisis management

Volcano monitoring data enable scientists to provide short-term forecasts or advise of possible changes during an ongoing eruption 30 . However, for successful crisis management, monitoring data and interpretations need to be: (a) framed within the context of wider scientific knowledge, (b) presented in the context of decision-making (‘useful, usable and used’) 31 and (c) effectively communicated to diverse audiences 32 . The St. Vincent case provides an important demonstration of how these principles were integrated, complementing synoptic analyses of the state-of-the-art in volcano observatory crisis operations 6 , 33 . Next, we discuss the key lessons from our analysis of response to the unfolding events, particularly the eruptive transition, and assess the role data and models played in decision-making. We also reflect on the constraints on best practice imposed by finite resources, and how this can be improved.

Conceptual models and their value in forecasting eruptive transitions

Historically, La Soufrière volcano can produce both explosive and effusive eruptions over time intervals of weeks to months. However, transitions in behaviour can occur over only a few hours 6 and pose acute challenges to risk management; particularly when decisions to evacuate are exacerbated by resource or space constraints that affect the tolerability of evacuations. Analysis of previous eruptions in St. Vincent has demonstrated that compliance with long-duration evacuations will dissipate, a feature shared with crises at other volcanoes 4 .

A working conceptual model of volcanic behaviour was created and developed in real-time, which was used to inform the scientific response to emergency management and advise the authorities. Critically, during the effusive phase our evolving working model was used to anticipate explosive transition or other significant changes in activity.

In early January 2021, we interpreted onset of the eruption as the consequence of the injection of fresh gas-rich magma into a sub-volcanic reservoir, making its way to the surface 3 . However, this interpretation could not explain the comparatively low seismicity rates, lack of surface deformation and near-constant extrusion of lava (Fig. 2 ). The presence of a ductile well-connected magma ascent pathway was proposed to reconcile these early seismic observations 34 . The absence of deformation and steady extrusion could be explained by either (i) a magma source that maintains a near-constant overpressure 35 or (ii) that a large magmatic source, relative to the material extruded, resulted in pressure decay in the reservoir being too small to be detected 36 , 37 or (iii) that hot magma mush surrounding the source region, in combination with the viscous flow in the crust, maintained the high pressure 37 , or (iv) some combination of these processes. The diversity of explanations, informed by monitoring observations, was important for assessing the potential for explosive activity, and the timescale over which this might happen. At that time, there were no evacuations in place, but existing hazard assessment and outcomes from past simulations (e.g., Tradewinds Exercise 2019 38 ) demonstrated that risk to the northern population could rapidly become high, with a 24–48 h interval needed for full evacuation.

By early February, the absence of detectable SO 2 , however, led us to infer the presence of degassed magma remaining within the conduit, following the 1979 eruption, confined by a strong ‘cap’, was slowly being pushed up by a new injection of gas-rich magma. By early March, the similar composition and petrographic characteristics of the extruded dome rocks, in comparison to past eruptive products, had reinforced this model. Similar behaviour has been inferred at volcanoes such as Kilauea in Hawai’i, where in 2018 near real-time geochemical analysis of lava indicated magma characteristics consistent with progressive flushing of residual magma in the conduit 39 .

The epicentres of the intense seismic swarms before the explosions show a concentric distribution of earthquakes around the volcano (Fig. 3a ). This suggested magma ascending through the volcanic conduit. Most (>95%) of the estimated epicentres were located above 5 km until 18:00 UTC on 5 April, when seismicity migrated to deeper levels (Fig. 3a, b ). This sudden transition in depth was considered evidence of increased deviatoric stresses around the conduit, possibly related to a new intrusion of gas-rich magma.

In our evolving model, obstruction by the cap material and overlying 1979 dome prevented fresh magma from reaching the surface and limited SO 2 flux to volumes low enough to be scrubbed by the volcanic hydrothermal system, until April 2021. We speculated that the accelerated extrusion rate observed after 6 April, was after the high-viscosity magma cap was displaced by new lower viscosity gas-rich magma. Banded tremor, consisting of merging VT events, attributed to the excitation of fluids at relatively shallow levels, was observed one day prior to the onset of the explosive phase 14 , 15 . This observation suggested possible pressure oscillations within the ~6 km deep magma reservoir as the trigger of highly periodic tremor events. This strongly implied the imminent passage of gas-rich material from depth into the shallower edifice, consistent with the first detection of SO 2 flux on 8 April (Fig. 6 ). Then on 9 April, gas rich magma reached the surface and conditions for explosive fragmentation were realised, which correlated with the observation of syn-eruptive deflation (Fig. 2 ).

The working conceptual model provided a robust framework against which these rapidly emerging data could be interpreted and understood. This working model illustrates the need to interpret scientific data in real-time to inform rapid emergency decision-making and the difference between theoretical models and critical interpretations that trigger real-world, life-preserving decisions. The conceptual models, synthesised from quantitative data, were necessary for decision-making and formed a framework to create actionable evidence for responding to an acceleration in activity. Nonetheless, the conceptual model was also strongly informed by quantitative outputs from generic models for different aspects of volcanic behaviour and the input of boundary conditions obtained from new knowledge of the magma composition and observations of dynamic behaviour. Further scientific analysis with longer-term research programmes and quantitative modelling will test and improve these models. An important dimension of fully quantitative models is the recognition of generalizable insights relevant to other settings worldwide where rapid transitions in activity occur, that can be derived from empirical observations in real time.

The role of uncertainty and impact of monitoring in a resource-constrained setting

Interpretation of the monitoring data and development of a preliminary conceptual model were associated with large uncertainties when anticipating eruptive behaviour throughout the unrest episode. These uncertainties created both temporal (when) and spatial (how big) challenges. Specific uncertainties included: (i) interpreting the extent that seismic unrest patterns were similar to historical background seismic activity at La Soufrière volcano; particularly long episodes of unrest preceding >VEI4 explosions; (ii) during steady-state dome growth, distinguishing monitoring signals indicative of a potential acceleration of activity from normal behavioural fluctuations, in the absence of any significant measured deformation; and (iii) during the explosive phase anticipating the likely duration and peak intensity of explosions, given the range in size and documented intensity of the previous eruptions 8 . This contributed to uncertainties in interpreting signals that might represent the onset of an explosive phase and reduced timescales over which accelerations or decelerations in the intensity of activity could be confidently attributed to changing behaviour. Coping with uncertainties framed our conceptual model and attendant different scenarios. Our combined expert view of likelihoods captured via expert elicitation, fed into decision focussed advice (e.g., VALS for La Soufrière). This approach avoided interpretations dependent on single outcomes 19 , which inadvertently minimised aleatoric uncertainties or ignored ambiguities in datasets. The St. Vincent case demonstrates the benefits of the structured expert elicitation methodology to capture uncertainty.

An important factor in generating epistemic uncertainty was the relatively sparse monitoring network at the onset of the eruptive episode, which was a direct consequence of financial constraints on the monitoring operations. Limitations in the density of the network challenged our ability to definitively say whether the onset of the effusive eruption would have been instrumentally detected. However, as the monitoring network strengthened, observed signals were interpreted against improvements in data volume and accuracy. For example, additional GPS stations installed during the eruption greatly improved the sensitivity of the network. A sensitivity study 40 , demonstrated that the network had no significant azimuthal gaps, but suffered from a lack of near-field stations to capture shallow deformation sources. In addition, interpretation of the low amplitude banded tremor detected on 8 April, reinforced by the observation of a detectable SO 2 gas flux later that day, was the most salient information to feed into changed views on explosion likelihood. Similarly, detailed seismic analysis and near real-time satellite and deformation measurements contributed to the anticipation of waning explosive activity during the acute phase (9–11 April).

The relatively late detection of effusive eruption onset and the importance of new data during the eruptive transition, clearly demonstrate that well-resourced multi-parametric networks are of high value. The reality in settings like St. Vincent is often different and network strengthening took place during the eruption, creating important safety concerns. SRC used a fieldwork life-safety risk assessment 41 with an estimated hourly risk of fatality exceeding 10 −4 during the initial fieldwork period (see Supplementary Information ). This procedure gave strong justification for the use of a helicopter and provided an opportunity for monitoring scientists to express any concerns and contribute recommendations on the best field practices.

The value of collaborative preparedness, awareness and communication

Identifying local needs and obtaining evidence of the efficacy and impact of the SRC’s risk communication in the vulnerable communities 42 was a persistent challenge largely due to the Education and Outreach (E&O) team’s remote operations. Harmonisation of messaging was essential 43 . Close collaborations with NEMO strengthened communication efficacy and reinforced local capacity for effective communication. In turn, this provided SRC with insight into appropriate content for its communication products. These types of relations take time and resources. The groundwork was essential to the success of managing the crisis in a rapidly changing volcanic situation with a requirement for the implementation of advice into action.

Wide acceptance of the risk information was indicated by the authorities acting decisively on advice provided by SRC, resulting in increased alert levels and the issuance of evacuation orders 24 h ahead of the first explosion. Furthermore, the public understood the increased volcanic activity and complied with evacuation orders.

Integrated approach: value in anticipating eruptive transitions

Effective crisis science and consequent volcanic risk reduction is a partnership between scientists, response agencies and the affected communities 44 , 45 , It begins with the robust gathering and interpretation of scientific data, before, during and after a crisis. Our analysis provides an excellent case study of the principles outlined in recent synoptic analyses 6 , 33 .

However, important challenges arise in the acute crisis phase where decision-making timescale appropriate to the lifetime of the eruption (typically weeks to months) contract into minutes and hours with the growing prospect of a change in behaviour. As a transition threatens, uncertainty rises and demands dynamic interpretation of emergent datasets. Thus, our analysis here particularly reflects on the important drivers of risk in this moment.

An important dimension was the capacity to interpret data against a flexible conceptual model that expresses and formalises uncertainty. Further, the understanding from previous research 7 , 8 , 9 , 13 , 22 and agency-to-agency interactions that framed social context and societal constraints were important. Monitoring agencies need to be responsible for interpreting datasets and anticipating changes on societally relevant timescales. This responsibility also underpinned our communication strategies and timescales. The long-term relationship we described here increased the chances that advice given during an eruptive transition was more readily translated into actions by local emergency managers, and in turn, the populace at risk.

Research that accounts for the realities of managing crises could further improve effective decision-making. In volcanology, counterfactual analysis is a powerful way to understand what might have transpired 46 . A counterfactual analysis to include the range of possible scenarios and outcomes using the ‘real time’ evolving knowledge gathered, would assess whether the decision-making strategy here was robust to all eruptive outcomes. For example, considering situations where explosive activity happened at an earlier stage or explosions that generated larger pyroclastic density currents. Similarly, a focus on emerging petrological techniques that allow rapid forensic examination of timescales of disruption, degassing and ingress prior to other eruptive episodes would have significantly helped with the interpretation of changing monitored signals at the acute crisis point.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge the implicit risk to monitoring scientists during the intra-eruptive network strengthening. Our analysis demonstrates the value of the strengthened network, as well as remotely observed data, to data interpretation despite the risk in this particular case. Research that improves understanding of the effectiveness of monitoring networks would help identify strategies that best minimise risk, while maximising data benefit.

Operating in a resource-constrained setting influenced scientific response and emergency management. The steady global growth of disaster risk, volcanic or otherwise, compels disaster response agencies to fortify disaster preparedness capabilities and to ensure that institutional capacities are in place to optimize effective planning, response, and mitigation. Our assessment of the 2020–2021 La Soufrière eruption demonstrates the critical controls, produced over longer timescales, of an effective response during an acute crisis at the moment of eruptive transition.

Confidence in our conceptual models of reactivation via a gas-rich magma at depth was improved through the strengthening of the seismic network, real-time deformation and dome monitoring, changes in gas composition and petrological sampling. Nonetheless, as monitored signals shifted and the likelihood of transition increased, longer-term preparedness measures allowed us to disseminate rapidly changing information effectively on short timescales and contextualise our advice on timescales appropriate for actions to prevent loss of life, while minimising impacts on livelihoods.

The seismicity routinely used to assess the status of La Soufrière volcano derives from an eight-station network on and around the volcano. Daily event counts are used to recognise changes within the system. The rapid densification of the network in early January 2021 (Fig. 1 ) facilitated the recording of micro-seismic signals generated by the dome emplacement process, as well as the detection and location of VT earthquakes. The location inversion was performed using a generic volcanic velocity structure 47 , although this velocity model is not a result of 1D tomography, it provides consistent and clustered results when no shallow velocity structures are identified. The size of the remaining volcano earthquake types that could not be located was assessed by tracking the number and distance of stations recording those events along with the duration of the events as recorded by the crater rim station, SSVA and then by SVV. The recorded events were identified and processed by a team of seismology technicians at SRC and cross-checked with the seismologist on duty at the Belmont Observatory. An automatic event detection system was introduced after several weeks to support the analysis. Routine RSAM and spectral analysis calculations were also used in assessing the status of the system.

GPS data were collected using Trimble NetRS and NetR9, and Septentrio PolaRX5 dual-frequency receivers and processed using GAMIT/GLOBK software (version 10.71) 48 . EDM were captured from six base locations (Fig. 1 ) in collaboration with the Lands and Surveys Department, SVG using a Leica Flexline TS06 total station. Radar imagery was acquired from Sentinel-1 satellites of the European Space Agency (ESA) and the ALOS-2 satellite of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The ALOS-2 images were originally made available under an ALOS-2 6th Research call project 49 and were then also made available through an emergency collaboration with NASA. Formal requests were made to ESA and JAXA for additional collections, which were subsequently granted. Sentinel-1 repeat times were increased from 12–18 days to 6 days and ALOS-2 repeat times were increased from approximately annual to every 14 days. ALOS-2 data were processed using the GAMMA software 50 and topographic corrections were made using the 30 m ASTER GDEM. Sentinel-1 data were processed with the NSBAS processing chain 51 , 52 which relies on the legacy software ROI_PAC 53 . Topographic corrections were made using the 1 Arc-second SRTM DEM, and atmospheric corrections were performed using ECMWF’s ERA-5 meteorological reanalysis 54 .

A portable Multi-component Gas Analysing System (MultiGAS) instrument composed of an infrared spectrometer and electrochemical sensors (plus air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity sensors) allowed detection of the in-plume concentrations (ppm) of H 2 O, CO 2 , SO 2 and H 2 S 55 . The instrument consists of a Gascard IR spectrometer for CO 2 determination (calibration range: 0–3000 ppmv; accuracy: ±2%; resolution: 0.8 ppmv) and of City Technology electrochemical sensors for SO 2 (sensor type 3ST/F; calibration range: 0–200 ppm, accuracy: ±2%, resolution: 0.1 ppmv), H 2 S (sensor type 2E; range: 0–100 ppm, accuracy: ±5%, resolution: 0.7 ppmv) and H 2 S (sensor type EZT3HYT; range: 0–200 ppm, accuracy: ±2%, resolution: 0.5 ppmv), all connected to a Campbell Scientific CR6 datalogger. The acquired data were post processed using the Ratiocalc software 56 with CO 2 /S t ratios expressed in molar ratios,

Rock samples were collected directly from an active lobe of the dome on 16 January 2021, using a bucket. These were crushed and analysed from bulk composition using XRF. Subsequently, samples of scoria (erupted 9 April) and blocks from PDCs (emplaced 13 April) were also analysed. The dome samples were thin sectioned by Jesús Montes Rueda at the University of Granada and by Ian Chaplin at Durham University, and carbon coated. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) imaging with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) analyses were conducted at the University of East Anglia (Zeiss Gemini 300 field emission SEM with Oxford Instruments Ultim Max 170 EDS). Imaging and analysis were conducted at 10 kV (UEA) with a working distance of 8.5 mm.

Dome volume monitoring

Growth of the new lava dome was monitored primarily through the application of photogrammetry, using images acquired from the summit crater rim or aerial images from observation flights using fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters or consumer grade unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Images were processed using either ImageJ or the photogrammetry software package AgiSoft Metashape, the later used to generate 3D models of the lava dome from which volume and extrusion rates were determined. Due to the lack of a quality pre-eruption DEM, it was assumed that the dome had a purely flat base and exhibited either a pure hemispherical or half ellipsoidal shape. In reality, where the new lava dome reached the 1979 lava dome and the inner slopes of the Summit Crater wall, the dome had a slightly trapezoidal cross-section. Consequently, the volume data presented in Fig. 2 is overestimated by as much as 20%. The photogrammetry surveys were conducted at intervals of up to 34 days due to access and safety concerns (they were conducted from locations along the rim of the Summit Crater). Between surveys, radar and multispectral imagery from the Sentinel-1 and -2 satellite constellations and from Planet.com were used to track the extent of the footprint of the new lava dome.

Hazard and risk evaluation

Two complementary activities were undertaken to quantify anticipated risk from the La Soufrière and provide an evidence base for internal decision-making during the eruption. The first, a fieldwork life-safety risk assessment provided estimates of the chance of fatality from an unheralded explosive event, which was a concern during the initial stages of the eruption when network strengthening fieldwork had to be conducted. The second, a formal approach to eliciting expert judgement, provided quantitative estimates of the likelihood for anticipated eruption scenarios that could inform both the fieldwork life-safety risk assessment and the provision of advice for emergency response and public safety throughout the eruptive sequence. This was undertaken on a regular basis to quantitatively assess the evolution of volcanic activity and possible future scenarios.

The fieldwork life-safety risk assessment was conducted following the VoLREst methodology 37 . The two-step procedure involved: (1) establishing the volcano-specific parameters, e.g., vent location, sites of interest, hazards of concern, eruption size categories, probability of exposure, probability of fatality and threshold of acceptable risk and (2) estimating eruption probabilities. Ideally the first step is undertaken in advance of any activity, in this instance parameters were identified after the extrusive eruption commenced, including elicited probabilities of exposure and fatality. Probabilities for step two were taken from the expert-elicitation for anticipated eruption scenarios. These values are combined in VoLREst to calculate hourly risk of fatality with increasing distance from the volcano (see Supplementary Fig. 4 ).

A structured elicitation process was initiated on 7 January 2021 to provide a framework for estimating quantitative probabilities of different eruption scenarios, particularly the likelihood of escalated eruptive (explosive) activity. Given that the eruption had already commenced, with extrusion at the surface in the form of a dome, three possible outcomes for the next stage of volcanic activity were considered: (i) effusive activity continues; (ii) eruption ends; and (iii) escalation to explosive activity. These scenarios formed the core of the questions during the elicitation, with probabilities elicited on a biweekly basis, with flexibility in adjusting the timing and content to address changing volcanic conditions, additional monitoring data, and/or questions that arose (both internally and externally) regarding possible scenarios.

The elicitation process included a briefing that was held approximately every two weeks to provide updates on the status of the volcano and monitoring operations. Previous elicitation results were discussed in depth during each meeting, together with a review of the scientific working model of the volcano and its ongoing eruptive state, and finally any possible changes to the elicitation questions. The group was then elicited immediately following the meeting, such that the estimated probabilities were based on consistent information available to all participants. Participants were asked to provide estimates of the median likelihood of a given event in a set time period, as well as estimates of 5 and 95% quantiles, to provide uncertainty ranges on their values. The Excalibur software package 19 , which implements Cooke’s “Classical Model” 18 , was used to undertake the calculations. Estimates for the following one-week period and one-month period were elicited.

Early warning and preparedness

The Volcano-Ready Communities in St. Vincent Project (VRCP) was a grant funded community-based capacity-building programme that aimed to reduce vulnerability to the multi-hazard environment of the La Soufrière volcano across twelve (12) communities in St. Vincent. It was executed during the period April 2018 to November 2021 through collaborations involving the SRC, NEMO, the Red Cross Society and the Community Development Division of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Project activities were designed to enhance community early warning procedures; increase adaptive capacities; strengthen awareness; and enhance response capacities to enable community residents to effectively plan, prepare for and respond to the impacts of volcanic and other hazards. Activities included the production of a variety of print and digital public awareness and education materials (posters and brochures, film, photographs and public exhibits) disseminated through a series of multi hazard, gender-sensitive community sessions that facilitated public engagement. Community awareness and education materials included documentaries on best practices and lessons learnt from the 1979 eruption, were also captured through story telling in film, animation and photography. A total of four one-week educational sessions were conducted between the months of April 2018 and October 2019, involving both secondary school students and volunteers (32–45 participants per session). Other public awareness education activities included a crisis management scenario workshop, attended by 120 Fourth Form geography students, where students also participated in practical experiments that demonstrated the science of volcanic eruptions. In addition, a group of 80 Fourth Form students took part in a guided field visit to the volcano’s summit, where they were introduced to SRC’s volcano monitoring mechanism for La Soufrière volcano and its evolution since the 1979 eruption.

In addition, training and Workshops were conducted with community volunteers to develop community level volcano emergency plans for the citizens in the high-risk Red Zone of the Soufrière Volcano. Two workshops: (1) Initial Damage Assessments (IDA) and (2) Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments (VCA), were held with fifteen persons from seven communities located in the Red Zone participating in both workshops. The group consisted of four males and eleven females, with eight participants comprising of young adults (15–24 years). This facilitated incorporation of community hazard maps and databases identifying and mapping vulnerable persons, human and transportation resources for each community to be integrated into the national response mechanisms.

Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTS) certification training was also conducted for each community, with a total of 72 community volunteers being trained under this program. Participants were instructed on disaster preparedness for volcanic and other hazards that may impact their community and trained in basic disaster response skills, such as fire safety, light search and rescue, team organisation, and disaster medical operations. In addition, participants also received information on: Introduction to Disaster Management, Mass Care, Damage Assessment and Shelters and Shelter Operations. In addition, CERT teams were provided with personal and community emergency response tools and equipment upon completion of the training. Stakeholders (government, civil society, private sector) were engaged to assist four communities with the development and identification of resources for the implementation of the community response plans and provide support to test the National Volcanic Emergency Response Plan during Tradewinds 2019 38 .

Risk communication

One of the key functions of the SRC is to provide information and scientific advice to governments, as well as to a large body of disaster management stakeholders and the general public. This was achieved through regular updates on volcanic activity as well as monitoring plans and techniques. At the onset of the eruption, the main objectives identified to guide the risk communication strategy were (i) to reinforce capacity of local authorities to communicate effectively; (ii) to promote public recognition of primary sources of information and (iii) to facilitate public understanding of science related to ongoing volcano monitoring techniques, volcanic activity, potential hazards and hazard mitigation measures.

The Education & Outreach (E&O) section of the SRC set out to reinforce NEMO’s capacity by supporting the implementation of its communications plan. This was executed through regular consultations between the two agencies to share communication expertise and collaborative hosting of key public education activities. The SRC developed communication products to address specific areas of need.

As part of intensified efforts to reinforce public recognition of primary sources of information, SRC spokespersons were identified for the eruption, visibility and responsiveness on social and traditional media were increased and published communication products were branded with SRC logo. A standardized statement identifying SRC and NEMO as official information sources were integrated as a consistent message across products, including interviews.

Where possible, communication products contained jargon-free language and alternatively, simple explanations for technical terms were provided where the scientific language was unavoidable. A customised communications approach to address different learning styles was adopted and information was disseminated through multimedia to targeted audiences. Eruption-related questions trending on SRC social media platforms provided the basis for these user-informed products.

Data availability

The raw datasets that informed the analyses presented in this study are available from the corresponding author on request. Sentinel products were freely downloaded from the Copernicus Open Access Hub ( https://scihub.copernicus.eu/ ).

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Acknowledgements

For their support to the monitoring of the eruption of La Soufrière, the staff of the SRC and MVO are thanked. Roderick Stewart is thanked for his service as a Scientific Team Lead in St. Vincent. We thank the Director and staff of NEMO, the SMU, Lands and Surveys Department of St. Vincent and volunteers assisting with field work for campaign EDM and GPS occupations. Willy Aspinall is thanked for sharing his insights and expertise throughout the unrest and eruption episode. We thank the ESA and JAXA for tasking systematic Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 acquisitions over La Soufrière. We thank the Capella Space and ICEYE companies for providing high-resolution SAR images of the volcano during the explosive phase. ALOS-2 SAR data were made available by the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) for the sixth RA proposal (PI no. 3153). Collaborating agencies such as NASA, IPGP, LOA, AERIS/ICARE, CSIC, USGS VDAP, USAID, CIMH, KNMI, CEOS Volcano Demonstrator all provided support for remote sensing data analysis. We thank the MOUNTS platform for their automated analyses of Sentinel data for La Soufrière, SVG. Fieldwork for JB and PC and petrological analysis was supported by NERC Urgency Grant NE/W000725/1 and Royal Society Apex Award APX\R1\180094. We thank David Pyle, Gregor Weber and Jon Blundy for assisting with geochemical analysis of dome samples. Funding for the VRCP project was granted to RR (Grant No. GA 43/STV) through CDB’s Community Disaster Risk Reduction Fund (CDRRF) and is supported by the Government of Canada and the European Union. We also thank the Executive Director and staff of CDEMA for logistical support and resource mobilisation efforts.

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E. P. Joseph, M. Camejo-Harry, T. Christopher, R. Contreras-Arratia, S. Edwards, O. Graham, M. Johnson, A. Juman, J. L. Latchman, L. Lynch, V. L. Miller, I. Papadopoulos, K. Pascal, R. Robertson, G. A. Ryan & A. Stinton

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Contributions

E.P.J. took the lead in writing the manuscript and oversaw the overall management of the UWI SRC during the volcanic crisis. M.C-.H., T.C., A.S., R.R., J.B., L.L. and P.C. conducted fieldwork, collected data, performed analysis and contributed to the interpretation of results. V.L.M. collected data, performed analysis and contributed to the interpretation of the results. K.P., G.R., J.L.L., R.C-.A., M.J. and I.P. analysed data and contributed to the interpretation of the results. S.E., O.G. and A.J. contributed to the design and implementation of the outreach research. R.G., I.H. and M-.J.J. analysed data and contributed to the interpretation of the results. J.B., P.C. and B.V.D. analysed the dome rock and eruptive products and contributed to the interpretation of the results. R.S.J.S. contributed to the development of a working conceptual model of the volcano. All authors provided feedback and helped shape the research, analysis and manuscript.

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Joseph, E.P., Camejo-Harry, M., Christopher, T. et al. Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent. Nat Commun 13 , 4129 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31901-4

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Article Contents

1 INTRODUCTION
3 OBSERVATIONS 2004–2006
4 HYPOTHESES
6 LAHAR MODELS: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
7 COLLAPSE MODELS: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
8 CONCLUSIONS
SUPPORTING INFORMATION
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The influence of long- and short-term volcanic strain on aquifer pressure: a case study from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (W.I.)

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K Strehlow, J Gottsmann, A Rust, S Hautmann, B Hemmings, The influence of long- and short-term volcanic strain on aquifer pressure: a case study from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (W.I.), Geophysical Journal International , Volume 223, Issue 2, November 2020, Pages 1288–1303, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa354

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Aquifers are poroelastic bodies that respond to strain by changes in pore pressure. Crustal deformation due to volcanic processes induces pore pressure variations that are mirrored in well water levels. Here, we investigate water level changes in the Belham valley on Montserrat over the course of 2 yr (2004–2006). Using finite element analysis, we simulate crustal deformation due to different volcanic strain sources and the dynamic poroelastic aquifer response. While some additional hydrological drivers cannot be excluded, we suggest that a poroelastic strain response of the aquifer system in the Belham valley is a possible explanation for the observed water level changes. According to our simulations, the shallow Belham aquifer responds to a steadily increasing sediment load due to repeated lahar sedimentation in the valley with rising aquifer pressures. A wholesale dome collapse in May 2006 on the other hand induced dilatational strain and thereby a short-term water level drop in a deeper-seated aquifer, which caused groundwater leakage from the Belham aquifer and thereby induced a delayed water level fall in the wells. The system thus responded to both gradual and rapid transient strain associated with the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat). This case study gives field evidence for theoretical predictions on volcanic drivers behind hydrological transients, demonstrating the potential of hydrological data for volcano monitoring. Interrogation of such data can provide valuable constraints on stress evolution in volcanic systems and therefore complement other monitoring systems. The presented models and inferred results are conceptually applicable to volcanic areas worldwide.

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The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1995 to 1999

Volcanoes are the most violent surface expression of the Earth’s internal energy. Only impacts of large extra-terrestrial bodies can match the explosive release and devastation of the largest volcanoes. Indeed for some of the most dramatic events the Earth has seen - the large terrestrial extinctions of animal life - the jury is still out as to whether they were brought about by meteoritic impact or by wide-scale effects of volcanic activity. Volcanoes have it too when it comes to sustained visual impact. Earthquakes, tsunamis and avalanches all cause massive devastation, but it is accomplished in the blink of an eye, and floods rise with a progressive and depressing inevitability. Volcanoes are simply the most spectacular of the destructive natural hazards to life on Earth.

To those who are far enough away to view them in safety, volcanoes can offer a truly awe-inspiring pyrotechnic display of the Earth’s innate power- a natural, spectacular son et lumière. For this reason from time immemorial they have exerted a siren-like attraction for geologists, photographers, filmmakers and many others. And, like the sirens of ancient fable, they have lured to their death all too many of those who dared to get too close. Indeed volcanoes inspired such awe in the ancient world that their own mythology sprang up about them. Cyclops, the one-eyed giant who all-unprovoked threw rocks great distances to kill shepherds tending their flocks, we know today as Mount Etna. The giant was also able to cause springs to flow where he struck the ground-it is not uncommon for groundwater flows to be disrupted during volcanic episodes.

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The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1995 to 1999 Author(s): T. H. Druitt, B. P. Kokelaar https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021 ISBN (print): 9781862390980 ISBN (electronic): 9781862393967 Publisher: Geological Society of London Published: 2002

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In Memorium: Peter William Francis, 1944–1999 Professor of Volcanology, The Open University Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for In Memorium: Peter William Francis, 1944–1999 Professor of Volcanology, The Open University in another window Add to Citation Manager
Setting, chronology and consequences of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995–1999) Author(s) B. P. Kokelaar B. P. Kokelaar Earth Sciences Department , University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK [email protected] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.02 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Setting, chronology and consequences of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995–1999) in another window Add to Citation Manager
The eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995–1999): overview of scientific results Author(s) R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 1 Department of Earth Sciences , Bristol University, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. R. Young S. R. Young 2 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.03 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for The eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995–1999): overview of scientific results in another window Add to Citation Manager
The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, organization, role and activities Author(s) W. P. Aspinall ; W. P. Aspinall 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies 2 Aspinall & Associates , 5 Woodside Close, Beaconsfield, Bucks, HP9 IJQ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. C. Loughlin ; S. C. Loughlin 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies 3 British Geological Survey , Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3LA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar F. V. Michael ; F. V. Michael 4 Emergency Department, Government of Montserrat , St John’s, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. D. Miller ; A. D. Miller 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies 5 Geowalks , 24 Argyle Place, Edinburgh, EH9 1JJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. E. Norton ; G. E. Norton 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies 6 British Geological Survey , Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar K. C. Rowley ; K. C. Rowley 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies 7 Landata Ltd , Trinidad & tobago Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies 8 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. R. Young S. R. Young 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.04 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, organization, role and activities in another window Add to Citation Manager
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Growth patterns and emplacement of the andesitic lava dome at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) R. B. Watts ; R. B. Watts 1 Department of Earth Sciences , Wills Memorial Building, University of Bristol, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK [email protected] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. A. Herd ; R. A. Herd 2 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 1 Department of Earth Sciences , Wills Memorial Building, University of Bristol, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK [email protected] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. R. Young S. R. Young 2 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.06 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Growth patterns and emplacement of the andesitic lava dome at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
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Pyroclastic flows and surges generated by the 25 June 1997 dome collapse, Sonfrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) S. C. Loughlin ; S. C. Loughlin 1 British Geological Survey , West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3LE, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar E. S. Calder ; E. S. Calder 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. Clarke ; A. Clarke 3 Departmentof Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University , University Park, PA 16802, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. D. Cole ; P. D. Cole 4 Centre for Volcanic Studies, University of Luton , Park Square, Luton, LU1 3JU, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. Luckett ; R. Luckett 5 British Geological Survey , Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar M. T. Mangan ; M. T. Mangan 6 United States Geological Survey , Menlo Park, California, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar D. M. Pyle ; D. M. Pyle 7 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge , Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Voight ; B. Voight 3 Departmentof Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University , University Park, PA 16802, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. B. Watts R. B. Watts 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.09 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Pyroclastic flows and surges generated by the 25 June 1997 dome collapse, Sonfrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Eyewitness accounts of the 25 June 1997 pyroclastic flows and surges at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and implications for disaster mitigation Author(s) S. C. Loughlin ; S. C. Loughlin 1 British Geological Survey , West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LE, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. J. Baxter ; P. J. Baxter 2 University of Cambridge Clinical School, Addenbrookes Hospital , Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar W. P. Aspinall ; W. P. Aspinall 3 Aspinall and Associates , 5 Woodside Close, Beaconsfield HP9 1JQ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Darroux ; B. Darroux 4 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. L. Harford ; C. L. Harford 5 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. D. Miller A. D. Miller 1 British Geological Survey , West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LE, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.10 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Eyewitness accounts of the 25 June 1997 pyroclastic flows and surges at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and implications for disaster mitigation in another window Add to Citation Manager
Deposits from dome-collapse and fountain-collapse pyroclastic flows at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) P. D. Cole ; P. D. Cole 1 Centre for Volcanic Studies, University of Luton , Park Square, Luton, LU1 3JU, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar E. S. Calder ; E. S. Calder 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1 RJ. UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1 RJ. UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. B. Clarke ; A. B. Clarke 3 Department of Geosciences, Penn State University , 503 Deike Building, University Park, PA 16802 2714, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar T. H. Druitt ; T. H. Druitt 4 Department des Sciences de la Terre (UMR 6524 et CNRS), Université Blaise Pascal , 63038 Clermont Ferrand, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. R. Young ; S. R. Young 5 British Geological Survey, Murchison House , West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3LA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. A. Herd ; R. A. Herd 6 British Geological Survey , Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. L. Harford ; C. L. Harford 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1 RJ. UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. E. Norton G. E. Norton 6 British Geological Survey , Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.11 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Deposits from dome-collapse and fountain-collapse pyroclastic flows at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Small-volume, highly mobile pyroclastic flows formed by rapid sedimentation from pyroclastic surges at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat: an important volcanic hazard Author(s) T. H. Druitt ; T. H. Druitt 1 Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (UMR 6524 & CNRS), Université Blaise Pascal , 5 rue Kessler, 63038 Clermont-Ferrand, France ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar E. S. Calder ; E. S. Calder 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. D. Cole ; P. D. Cole 3 Centre for Volcanic Studies, University of Luton , Park Square, Luton LU1 3JU, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. P. Hoblitt ; R. P. Hoblitt 4 David A. Johnston Cascades Volcano Observatory, US Geological Survey , 5400 Mac Arthur Boulevard, Vancouver, WA 98661, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. C. Loughlin ; S. C. Loughlin 5 British Geological Survey , Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LE, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. E. Norton ; G. E. Norton 5 British Geological Survey , Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LE, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar L. J. Ritchie ; L. J. Ritchie 3 Centre for Volcanic Studies, University of Luton , Park Square, Luton LU1 3JU, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Voight B. Voight 7 Department of Geosciences, Penn State University , University Park, PA 16802, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.12 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Small-volume, highly mobile pyroclastic flows formed by rapid sedimentation from pyroclastic surges at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat: an important volcanic hazard in another window Add to Citation Manager
Episodes of cyclic Vulcanian explosive activity with fountain collapse at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) T. H. Druitt ; T. H. Druitt 1 Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (UMR 6524 & CNRS) Université Blaise Pascal , 5 rue Kessler, 63038 Clermont-Ferrand, France ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. R. Young ; S. R. Young 2 British Geological Survey, Murchison House , Edinburgh EH9 3LA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Baptie ; B. Baptie 2 British Geological Survey, Murchison House , Edinburgh EH9 3LA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. Bonadonna ; C. Bonadonna 3 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Queens Road, Bristol BS8 IRJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar E. S. Calder ; E. S. Calder 3 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Queens Road, Bristol BS8 IRJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. B. Clarke ; A. B. Clarke 4 Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park , PA 16802 USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. D. Cole ; P. D. Cole 6 Centre for Volcanic Studies, University of Luton , Park Square, Luton LUI 3JU, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. L. Harford ; C. L. Harford 3 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Queens Road, Bristol BS8 IRJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. A. Herd ; R. A. Herd 6 British Geological Survey , Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. Luckett ; R. Luckett 2 British Geological Survey, Murchison House , Edinburgh EH9 3LA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. Ryan ; G. Ryan 7 Environmental Science Department, Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, University of Lacaster , Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Voight B. Voight 4 Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park , PA 16802 USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.13 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Episodes of cyclic Vulcanian explosive activity with fountain collapse at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Modelling of conduit flow dynamics during explosive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) O. Melnik ; O. Melnik 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK ( [email protected] ) 2 Institute of Mechanics, Moscow State University 1 Michurinskii prosp., Moscow 117192, Russia Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks R. S. J. Sparks 2 Institute of Mechanics, Moscow State University 1 Michurinskii prosp., Moscow 117192, Russia Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.14 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Modelling of conduit flow dynamics during explosive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Computational modelling of the transient dynamics of the August 1997 Vulcanian explosions at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat: influence of initial conduit conditions on near-vent pyroclastic dispersal Author(s) A. B. Clarke ; A. B. Clarke 1 Department of Geosciences, Penn State University , University Park, PA 16802, USA ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. Neri ; A. Neri 2 CNR-CSGSDA, Department of Earth Sciences , Pisa, Italy Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Voight ; B. Voight 1 Department of Geosciences, Penn State University , University Park, PA 16802, USA ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. Macedonio ; G. Macedonio 3 Osservatorio Vesuviano , Napoli, Italy Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar T. H. Druitt T. H. Druitt 4 Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Blaise Pascal et CNRS , Clermont-Ferrand 63038, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.15 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Computational modelling of the transient dynamics of the August 1997 Vulcanian explosions at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat: influence of initial conduit conditions on near-vent pyroclastic dispersal in another window Add to Citation Manager
Hazard implications of small-scale edifice instability and sector collapse: a case history from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) S. R. Young ; S. R. Young 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Voight ; B. Voight 2 Department of Geosciences, Penn State University University Park PA16802, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J. Barclay ; J. Barclay 3 School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. A. Herd ; R. A. Herd 4 British Geological Survey Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J.-C. Komorowski ; J.-C. Komorowski 5 OVS-IPGP Le Houlement 97113, Guadeloupe, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. D. Miller ; A. D. Miller 6 Geowalks 23 Summerfield Place, Edinburgh EH6 8AZ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 7 Earth Sciences Department, University of Bristol, Queen’s Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. C. Stewart R. C. Stewart 8 Preparatory Commission for the CTBTO, PO Box 1250, A-1400 Wien, Austria Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.16 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Hazard implications of small-scale edifice instability and sector collapse: a case history from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
The 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 sector collapse and debris avalanche at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) B. Voight ; B. Voight 1 Geosciences, Penn State University University Park, PA 16802, USA [email protected] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J-C. Komorowski ; J-C. Komorowski 2 Observatoire Volcanologique de la Soufriè (IPGP) Le Houelmont, Gourbeyre 97113, Guadeloupe Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. E. Norton ; G. E. Norton 3 British Geological Survey Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. B. Belousov ; A. B. Belousov 4 Institute of Volcanic Geology and Geochemistry Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar M. Belousova ; M. Belousova 4 Institute of Volcanic Geology and Geochemistry Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. Boudon ; G. Boudon 5 Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP) 4 Place Jussieu, B 89, 75252 Cedex 05 Paris, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. W. Francis ; P. W. Francis 6 Department of Earth Sciences, Open University Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK (deceased) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar W. Franz ; W. Franz 7 Gannett-Fleming Engineers Harrisburg, PA 17110, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. Heinrich ; P. Heinrich 8 Laboratoire de détection et de Géophysique Commisariat à l'Energie Atomique, BP 12, 91680 Bruyères-le-Chatel, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 9 Department of Earth Sciences, Bristol University Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. R. Young S. R. Young 10 Montserrat Volcano Observatory Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.17 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for The 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 sector collapse and debris avalanche at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Generation of a debris avalanche and violent pyroclastic density current on 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J. Barclay ; J. Barclay 2 Department of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7JT, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar E. S. Calder ; E. S. Calder 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. A. Herd ; R. A. Herd 3 British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J-C. Komorowski ; J-C. Komorowski 4 Observatoire de Guadeloupe, Institut de Physique du Globe, Guadeloupe, French Antilles Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. Luckett ; R. Luckett 5 British Geological Survey, Murchision House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3LA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. E. Norton ; G. E. Norton 3 British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar L. J. Ritchie ; L. J. Ritchie 6 Centre for Volcanic Studies, University of Luton, Park Square, Luton, LU1 3JU, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Voight ; B. Voight 7 Department of Geosciences, Penn State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. W. Woods A. W. Woods 8 BP Institute, Madingley Rise, Cambridge University, Cambridge CB3 0EZ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.18 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Generation of a debris avalanche and violent pyroclastic density current on 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Sedimentology of deposits from the pyroclastic density current of 26 December 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) L. J. Ritchie ; L. J. Ritchie 1 Centre for Volcanic Studies, University of Luton , Luton LU1 3JU, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. D. Cole ; P. D. Cole 1 Centre for Volcanic Studies, University of Luton , Luton LU1 3JU, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks R. S. J. Sparks 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.19 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Sedimentology of deposits from the pyroclastic density current of 26 December 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
The explosive decompression of a pressurized volcanic dome: the 26 December 1997 collapse and explosion of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) A. W. Woods ; A. W. Woods 1 BP Institute, Madingley Rise, University of Cambridge , Cambridge CB3 OEZ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 1 BP Institute, Madingley Rise, University of Cambridge , Cambridge CB3 OEZ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar L. J. Ritchie ; L. J. Ritchie 1 BP Institute, Madingley Rise, University of Cambridge , Cambridge CB3 OEZ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J. Batey ; J. Batey 1 BP Institute, Madingley Rise, University of Cambridge , Cambridge CB3 OEZ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. Gladstone ; C. Gladstone 1 BP Institute, Madingley Rise, University of Cambridge , Cambridge CB3 OEZ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar M. I. Bursik M. I. Bursik 1 BP Institute, Madingley Rise, University of Cambridge , Cambridge CB3 OEZ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.20 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for The explosive decompression of a pressurized volcanic dome: the 26 December 1997 collapse and explosion of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Pyroclastic flow and explosive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, during a period of virtually no magma extrusion (March 1998 to November 1999) Author(s) G. E. Norton ; G. E. Norton 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies 2 British Geological Survey , Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. B. Watts ; R. B. Watts 3 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 I RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Voight ; B. Voight 4 Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University , University Park, PA 16802, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. S. Mattioli ; G. S. Mattioli 5 Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas , Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. A. Herd ; R. A. Herd 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies 2 British Geological Survey , Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. R. Young ; S. R. Young 1 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J. D. Devine ; J. D. Devine 6 Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University , Providence R1 02912, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar W. P. Aspinnall ; W. P. Aspinnall 7 Aspinall & Associates, 5 Woodside Close, Beaconsfield , Bucks HP9 I JQ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. Bonadonna ; C. Bonadonna 3 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 I RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. J. Baptie ; B. J. Baptie 8 British Geological Survey , Ediburgh EH9 3LA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar M. Edmonds ; M. Edmonds 9 Department of Earth Sciences, Cambridge University , Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. L. Harford ; C. L. Harford 3 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 I RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. D. Jolly ; A. D. Jolly 10 Geological Institute, University of Alaska , Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. C. Loughlin ; S. C. Loughlin 7 Aspinall & Associates, 5 Woodside Close, Beaconsfield , Bucks HP9 I JQ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. Luckett ; R. Luckett 11 International Seismological Centre, Pipers Lane , Thatcham, Berkshire RG19 4NS, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks R. S. J. Sparks 3 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 I RJ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.21 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Pyroclastic flow and explosive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, during a period of virtually no magma extrusion (March 1998 to November 1999) in another window Add to Citation Manager
Tephra fallout in the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) C. Bonadonna ; C. Bonadonna 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. C. Mayberry ; G. C. Mayberry 2 Department of Geological Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University , Houghton MI 49931, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar E. S. Calder ; E. S. Calder 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks ; R. S. J. Sparks 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. Choux ; C. Choux 3 Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Blaise Pascal et CNRS , 63038 Clermont Ferrand, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. Jackson ; P. Jackson 4 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. M. Lejeune ; A. M. Lejeune 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. C. Loughlin ; S. C. Loughlin 5 British Geological Survey , Edinburgh EH9 3LA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. E. Norton ; G. E. Norton 6 British Geological Survey , Keyworth, Nottingham, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar W. I. Rose ; W. I. Rose 2 Department of Geological Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University , Houghton MI 49931, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. Ryan ; G. Ryan 7 Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Lancaster University , Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar S. R. Young S. R. Young 4 Montserrat Volcano Observatory , Mongo Hill, Montserrat, West Indies Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.22 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Tephra fallout in the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Numerical modelling of tephra fallout associated with dome collapses and Vulcanian explosions: application to hazard assessment on Montserrat Author(s) C. Bonadonna ; C. Bonadonna 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. Macedonio ; G. Macedonio 2 Osservatorio Vesuviano , Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 Napoli, Italy Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. S. J. Sparks R. S. J. Sparks 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.23 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Numerical modelling of tephra fallout associated with dome collapses and Vulcanian explosions: application to hazard assessment on Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Dynamics of volcanic and meteorological clouds produced on 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) G. C. Mayberry ; G. C. Mayberry Department of Geological Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University , Houghton, MI 49931, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar W. I. Rose ; W. I. Rose Department of Geological Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University , Houghton, MI 49931, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar G. J. S. Bluth G. J. S. Bluth Department of Geological Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University , Houghton, MI 49931, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.24 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Dynamics of volcanic and meteorological clouds produced on 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Monitoring of airborne particulate matter during the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) K. R. Moore ; K. R. Moore 1 Department of Geology, National University of Ireland Galway , Galway, Ireland ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar H. Duffell ; H. Duffell 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge , Cambridge CB2 3EQ,UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. Nicholl ; A. Nicholl 3 Institute of Occupational Medicine , 8 Roxburgh Place, Edinburgh EH8 9SU, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar A. Searl A. Searl 3 Institute of Occupational Medicine , 8 Roxburgh Place, Edinburgh EH8 9SU, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.25 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Monitoring of airborne particulate matter during the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Seismicity, gas emission and deformation from 18 July to 25 September 1995 during the initial phreatic phase of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) C. A. Gardner ; C. A. Gardner 1 USGS, Cascades Volcano Observatory , 5400 Mac Arthur Blvd, Vancouver, WA 98661, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. A. White R. A. White 2 USGS , MS 910, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.26 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Seismicity, gas emission and deformation from 18 July to 25 September 1995 during the initial phreatic phase of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Spaceborne radar measurements of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) G. Wadge ; G. Wadge 1 Environmental System Science Centre, Harry Pitt Building, University of Reading , Reading RG6 6AL, UK [email protected] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Scheuchl ; B. Scheuchl 1 Environmental System Science Centre, Harry Pitt Building, University of Reading , Reading RG6 6AL, UK [email protected] 2 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of British Columbia , Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T124, Canada Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar N. F. Stevens N. F. Stevens 1 Environmental System Science Centre, Harry Pitt Building, University of Reading , Reading RG6 6AL, UK [email protected] 3 Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd , Gracefield Research Centre, Lower Hutt, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.27 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Spaceborne radar measurements of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
The relationship between degassing and rockfall signals at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) R. Luckett ; R. Luckett 1 British Geological Survey, , Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburg EH9 3LA, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar B. Baptie ; B. Baptie 1 British Geological Survey, , Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburg EH9 3LA, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J. Neuberg J. Neuberg 2 School of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, , Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.28 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for The relationship between degassing and rockfall signals at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
A model of the seismic wavefield in gas-charged magma: application to Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) J. Neuberg ; J. Neuberg School of Earth Sciences, The University of Leeds, , Leeds LS2 9JT, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar C. O’Gorman C. O’Gorman School of Earth Sciences, The University of Leeds, , Leeds LS2 9JT, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.29 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for A model of the seismic wavefield in gas-charged magma: application to Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Observations of low-frequency earthquakes and volcanic tremor at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) B. Baptie ; B. Baptie 1 Global Seismology Group, British Geological Survey, , Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar R. Luckett ; R. Luckett 1 Global Seismology Group, British Geological Survey, , Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, UK ( [email protected] ) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar J. Neuberg J. Neuberg 2 School of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, , Leeds LS2 9JT, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.30 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Observations of low-frequency earthquakes and volcanic tremor at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
Variation in HCl/SO 2 gas ratios observed by Fourier transform spectroscopy at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat Author(s) C. Oppenheimer ; C. Oppenheimer 1 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, , Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK [email protected] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar M. Edmonds ; M. Edmonds 2 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, , Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EQ, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. Francis ; P. Francis 3 Department of Earth Sciences, The Open University, , Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar M. Burton M. Burton 1 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, , Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK [email protected] 4 Present address: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, , Sezione de Catenia, U.F. Sistema Poseidon, Via Monti Rossi 12, 95030 Nicolosi, Catania, Italy Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Doi: https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.MEM.2002.021.01.31 Abstract Open the PDF Link PDF for Variation in HCl/SO2 gas ratios observed by Fourier transform spectroscopy at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in another window Add to Citation Manager
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West Indies
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The weathering and element fluxes from active volcanoes to the oceans: a Montserrat case study

Research Article
Published: 08 October 2010
Volume 73 , pages 207–222, ( 2011 )

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Morgan T. Jones 1 , 5 ,
Deborah J. Hembury 1 ,
Martin R. Palmer 1 ,
Bill Tonge 2 ,
W. George Darling 3 &
Susan C. Loughlin 4

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The eruptions of the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat (Lesser Antilles) from 1995 to present have draped parts of the island in fresh volcaniclastic deposits. Volcanic islands such as Montserrat are an important component of global weathering fluxes, due to high relief and runoff and high chemical and physical weathering rates of fresh volcaniclastic material. We examine the impact of the recent volcanism on the geochemistry of pre-existing hydrological systems and demonstrate that the initial chemical weathering yield of fresh volcanic material is higher than that from older deposits within the Lesser Antilles arc. The silicate weathering may have consumed 1.3% of the early CO 2 emissions from the Soufrière Hills volcano. In contrast, extinct volcanic edifices such as the Centre Hills in central Montserrat are a net sink for atmospheric CO 2 due to continued elevated weathering rates relative to continental silicate rock weathering. The role of an arc volcano as a source or sink for atmospheric CO 2 is therefore critically dependent on the stage it occupies in its life cycle, changing from a net source to a net sink as the eruptive activity wanes. While the onset of the eruption has had a profound effect on the groundwater around the Soufrière Hills center, the geochemistry of springs in the Centre Hills 5 km to the north appear unaffected by the recent volcanism. This has implications for the potential risk, or lack thereof, of contamination of potable water supplies for the island’s inhabitants.

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Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the National Environment Research Council (NERC). The authors would like to thank the staff of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory for their valuable assistance during excursions into the exclusion zone, particularly Nico Fournier, Thomas Christopher, and Racquel Tappy Syers. Reuel Lee and Mervin Tuitt of the Montserrat Water Authority are thanked for their able assistance in sample collection. Many thanks are due to Johan Varekamp and Jérôme Gaillardet for constructive reviews and to Pierre Delmelle for handling this manuscript.

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Montserrat Water Authority, P.O. Box 324, Davy Hill, Montserrat, West Indies

British Geological Survey, Maclean Building, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK

W. George Darling

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Susan C. Loughlin

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Jones, M.T., Hembury, D.J., Palmer, M.R. et al. The weathering and element fluxes from active volcanoes to the oceans: a Montserrat case study. Bull Volcanol 73 , 207–222 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0397-0

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Received : 15 January 2010

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0397-0

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The Government of Montserrat and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory Official Releases Concerning the Situation at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies

Last updated 11 july 1999, montserrat red cross information and appeal for assistance, government information service, montserrat volcano observatory, pictoral archive of activity at soufriere hills volcano, mvo scientific reports, mvo special reports, volcanic alert levels and hazard risk assessments, mvo morning and daily scientific reports, volcanism in montserrat: meetings, symposia and conferences, links related to volcanism in monstserrat or the island itself., location maps.

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Montserrat: A Case Study of a Volcanic Eruption
The eruption that began on 18 July 1995 was the first since the 19th century in Montserrat. When pyroclastic flows and mudflows began occurring regularly, the capital, Plymouth, was evacuated, and a few weeks later a pyroclastic flow covered the city in several metres of debris. Pyroclastic flows on the Soufriere hills were caused by the ...
Montserrat
Case study: Chances Peak, Montserrat, 1995-97 - an LEDC ... The Soufriere Hills contains a volcanic area called Chances Peak, in the Southern part of the Island. The volcano had been dormant for over 300 years but started to erupt on the 18 th of July 1995. It started with warning signs of small earthquakes and eruptions of dust and ash.
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The extended eruption of a lava dome at Soufrière Hills Volcano that began in 1995 generated large amounts of fine ash by (1) explosive events from the dome; and (2) frequent collapse of unstable parts of the growing dome that generated pyroclastic flows and associated plumes of ash. A detailed study of ash from both types of events determined ...
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Our estimates regarding the risk to the people of Montserrat due to potential hazards from the volcano remain at the same level as last year. For people living or working in Zone A we estimate the odds of an individual's death due to volcanic activity in the next year at about 1- in-13 million. For Zone B we estimate those odds at about 1-in ...
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Eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano began on 18 July 1995 after three years of elevated seismic activity. Four months of increasingly vigorous phreatic activity culminated in mid-November 1995 with the initiation of dome growth. Growth rates increased unevenly through early March 1996, with fluctuations on time-scales from hours to months.
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Overview of the eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, 18
The Soufriere Hills volcano (SHV) lies in the south-central part of the British overseas territorial island of Montserrat, near the northern end of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc (Fig- ure 1). The island comprises a number of volcanic centres up to c. 4.3 Ma old [MacGregor, 1938; Rea, 1974], with the
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Early seismicity was generally diffuse under southern Montserrat, and mostly restricted to depths less than 7 km. However, a NE-SW alignment of epicentres beneath the NE flank of the volcano emerged in one swarm of volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VTs) and later nests of VT hypocentres developed beneath the volcano and at a separated location ...
The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1995 to 1999
Setting, chronology and consequences of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995-1999) Author(s) B. P. Kokelaar B. P. Kokelaar Earth Sciences Department, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK. [email protected]. Search for other works by this author on: ...
The eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995-1999
The eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995-1999) has displayed a wide range of volcanic phenomena: growth of an andesitic lava dome, generation of pyroclastic flows by lava dome collapse and by fountain collapse in explosive eruptions, Vulcanian and sub-Plinian explosivity with accompanying tephra fall, entrance of pyroclastic flows into the sea, sector collapse with ...
The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 1995 to 1999
Open the PDF Link PDF for Setting, chronology and consequences of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995-1999) in another window Add to Citation Manager The eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995-1999): overview of scientific results
The weathering and element fluxes from active volcanoes to the oceans
The Soufrière Hills volcano, located in the southern part of the island of Montserrat in the Lesser Antilles (Fig. 1), is an andesitic stratovolcano that had been dormant since the seventeenth century.The island comprises three distinct volcanic massifs, the extinct northern Silver Hills (2.6-1.2 Ma) and Centre Hills (950-550 ka), and the active Soufrière Hills (170 ka to present ...
PDF Soufrière Hills, Montserrat
Title: Soufrière Hills, Montserrat - Case Study - World at Risk - Edexcel Geography IAL Created Date: 20191125163821Z
Soufrière Hills Eruption, Montserrat, 1995-1997: Volcanic earthquake
The Soufribre Hills Volcano eruption began on 18 July 1995, the first since European settlement of Montserrat took place in 1632AD [Fergus, 1994], although an eruption (or eruptions) had occurred sometime in the decades prior to that time. In historic times, three notable volcano-seismic crises preceded the present eruption at
Overview of the eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, 18
The onset of phreatic volcanic activity at the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat on 18 July 1995 followed a three-year period of heightened volcano-seismic activity beneath the island. Phreatic explosions gave way to continuous eruption of juvenile andesitic magma in the form of a lava dome on or around 15 November 1995. Magma production rate ...
Government of Montserrat and Montserrat Volcano Observatory
A newsletter published weekly times weekly by the Emergency Department of the Governor's Office. "Montserrat This Today" is a review in layman's terms of the activity at the Soufriere Hills Volcano and the rebuilding and relief efforts within Montserrat. Montserrat This Week for the period of 17 September - 23 September, 1998.
Eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano in Montserrat continues
On July 18,1995, the Soufriere Hills volcano in Montserrat erupted for the first time in recorded history. The eruption began with intense fumarolic venting and phreatic explosions following 3 years of elevated seismicity. An andesite lava dome emerged on November 15, 1995, and continued to grow, with several periods of copious pyroclastic flow ...
Volcano Eruption Casestudy Montserrat Soufriere Hills
Plymouth abandoned. 1997 June 25/6 Most devastating flow yet down NE slopes of volcano. 19 people killed who had returned to their homes in the danger zone.9000m high eruption cloud. 1997 August Pyroclastic flows destroy Plymouth, Montserrat's capital 3 miles from crater. Permanent relocation of inhabitants away from island is considered by ...

Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies.

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The Government of Montserrat and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory Official Releases Concerning the Situation at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies

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