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Assessing Russian Firepower Strikes in Ukraine

Russia launched 11,466 missiles at Ukraine from September 2022–2024, with 83.5 percent intercepted daily. As Moscow escalates attacks, Ukraine's air defense evolves, but continued Western aid is vital for sustaining defense and enabling long-range counterstrikes.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — October 23, 2024

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Search using Google conventions (i.e. putting quotation marks around phrases).

Inclusion Policy

Think Tank Search  searches the websites of institutions that generate public policy research, analysis, and activity. These sites are  affiliated with universities, governments, advocacy groups, foundations, and non-governmental organizations .  Inclusion is based upon the relevancy of subject area to HKS coursework and scholarship, the availability of the think tank’s research in full-text on the website, and the think tank’s reputation and influence upon policy making. The list represents a mixture of partisan and non-partisan think tanks.

Other Lists

• Policy File Index (Harvard Login) Abstracts of and links to domestic and international public policy issue published by think tanks, university research programs, & research organizations.
• Policy Commons: Global Think Tanks Collection of research from the world’s leading policy experts, think tanks, IGOs and NGOs. At last count it contains over 3 million publications from more than 24,000 organizations.
• Open Research Reports from JSTOR More than 39,000 research reports from over 140 policy institutes around the world are freely accessible to everyone on JSTOR. The open research reports are discoverable alongside journals, books, and primary sources, and are clearly labeled as their own content type.
• Find Policy A side project of Transparify, search think tank sites grouped by topic and location.
• Open Think Tank Directory A global collection of 2700 think tanks and related organisations.

Repository of think tank publications on EU affairs from the Library of the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU.

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Think Tanks (Research Institutes & Policy Institutes)

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Policy institutes or research institutes are commonly referred to as “Think Tanks.”  These organizations work to solve complex problems by identifying policy issues, researching and evaluating ideas, and making recommendations that influence global, national, and regional public policy. Think Tanks can be partisan or non-partisan, though it’s important to note that most have an ideological orientation and are advocacy oriented. Think Tank researchers can influence public opinion and public policy, which is a different focus from traditional academic research at a university.

Some of the very first Think Tanks in the United States include the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Brookings Institution, and the Council on Foreign Relations. You are encouraged to do a search for those in your particular area of interest. With over 1,800 think tanks in the US (177 in Massachusetts alone!) and more than 6,500 worldwide, you are likely to find a number working in topic areas of importance to you.

Types of Opportunities

Think Tanks are looking for individuals who are skilled at producing, synthesizing, and communicating research. Strong research, written and verbal communication, and team work skills are important as well as an aptitude for influencing and a personal interest in the subject area being studied. Though a Master’s degree is often desired, there can be opportunities for junior analysts and researchers.  Higher level positions within an organization will require a PhD or experience as an academic in the field.

Finding Opportunities

As with any industry, networking should be a priority in your job or internship search.  Attend conferences or events hosted by Think Tanks. Consider working as a research assistant or interning with a research institute or policy institute. Most think tanks post internship and job opportunities directly on their website, so be sure to check there for postings and deadlines. Consider looking at profiles on various think tank websites to see how current employees have reached their particular positions. Look on LinkedIn and the Alumni Advisors Hub to find MIT alumni working in the field, with whom you could conduct an informational interview to learn more about careers in policy research.

Below are a few resources to get you started in your search. However, you are encouraged to do a general web search for Think Tanks within your area of interest.

• Global Go To Think Tank Index
• NIRA World Directory of Think Tanks
• US Department of State
• Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management

Sample Local Think Tanks

• MIT CEEPR (Center for Energy & Environmental Policy Research)
• Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
• National Bureau of Economic Research

Introduction

In accordance with President Xi Jinping's directives on developing the New-Type Think Tanks with Chinese Characteristics, and the "Opinions on Strengthening the Construction of the New-Type Think Tanks with Chinese Characteristics" issued by the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and State Council, the School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM) at Tsinghua University established the Think Tank Research Center (TTRC) on April 12, 2018. This initiative aims to bolster the research capabilities of think tanks in China, elevate the quality of their research outputs, foster a robust market for policy analysis, and advance the nation's commitment to scientific and democratic policy-making processes.

Relying on the comprehensive disciplinary advantages of Tsinghua University and the platform provided by China Top Think Tanks (CTTT), and leveraging the robust academic research and policy analysis capabilities of the SPPM, the TTRC adopts modern social science research methods to study the development and construction of think tanks. It builds a platform for analyzing information related to think tanks, enabling comprehensive tracking, analysis and evaluation of the image, capability, performance, and influence of both Chinese and global think tanks. The TTRC aims to support the establishment of a global research network and promote the healthy development of the think tank industry. Moreover, it is dedicated to enhancing the role of think tanks in serving policymakers and the public.

Prof. Su Jun serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Think Tank Research Center, Prof. Zhu Xufeng is Director, Prof. Xue Lan and Prof. Hu Angang serve as special advisors. Key members of the Center include Zhao Jing, Huang Cui and Yan Yilong.

Research Directions

The main research directions of the TTRC include: the construction of the New-Type Think Tanks with Chinese Characteristics, the development models of Chinese and global think tanks, the frameworks, and evaluations of think tanks.

Constructing the first "think tank big data platform" in China, forming a large-scale basic data platform that integrates data on think tank institutions, research data, experts, activities, and products and incorporates functions such as searching, querying, analyzing, statistics and information mining.

Integrating the data resources of existing Chinese and global think tank evaluation organizations or systems to form a more complete think tank information platform, filling the gaps in the data and information analysis systems of think tanks in China, and providing information support for the development and research of think tanks.

Publishing various types of think tank evaluation reports, tracking the development of think tanks, launching a series of publications and papers on the development of think tanks.

Building a research network among think tanks, forming long-term close collaborations with Chinese and global think tank evaluation organizations, and engaging in consultancy activities regarding think tank evaluation and development.

Copyright 2011-2024 School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University All Rights Reserved Tel: (86)10-62773832 Fax: (86)10-62782853  Email: [email protected]

Public Policy

• Articles and Books

Using Think Tank Research

Selected think tanks.

• Statistics and Data
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Think Tank Directories

Think tank watchdog organizations include:  Transparify  and  On Think Tanks .

• Think Tank Search (Harvard Kennedy School Library) A custom Google search that searches the websites of notable think tanks. Can search US and international.
• Worldpress Review Online's Think Tank Directory An alphabetical index of think tanks and research organizations.
• Open Think Tank Directory The Open Think Tank Directory captures information about more than 2700 think tanks from around the globe.
• TTCSP Go To Global Think Tank Report Annual rankings of think tanks.
• Apolitical Analysis & reporting on policy innovations, used by civil servants in 140+ countries. Strong international coverage. A good place to look for policy alternatives & their implementations. Note: you will need to create a (free) account.

For advice on using think tank reports in your research, see this  tip sheet .

• Policy File Index This link opens in a new window Indexes otherwise hard to obtain research and publications from public policy think tanks, university research programs, research organizations, and publishers. Each item includes an abstract and, where available, access to the full-text of the report and/or the homepages and electronic mail addresses of the authoring institution.
• Policy Commons This link opens in a new window Policy Commons is a one-stop community platform for research from the world’s leading policy experts, nonpartisan think tanks, IGOs and NGOs. This growing database is the world’s largest directory of policy organizations representing nearly 24,000 organizations and over 3 million publications.
• Find Policy Find policy was created by Transparify. TIP: Scroll past the sponsored results on the search results page!
• Brookings Institution The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, DC. Our mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations to: Strengthen American democracy; Foster the economic and social welfare, security and opportunity of all Americans and Secure a more open, safe, prosperous and cooperative international system.
• The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Endowment conducts programs of research, discussion, publication, and education in international affairs and U.S. foreign policy, including migration, nuclear non-proliferation, regional conflicts, multilateralism, democracy-building, and the use of force.
• National Bureau of Economic Research Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. Their full-text archive of working papers covers 1973-present.
• Pew Research Center This link opens in a new window Note: Access to datasets requires that you create a free account on the Pew website. "A nonpartisan 'fact tank' that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world." more... less... Includes seven projects: the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, the Project for Excellence in Journalism, the Pew Internet & American Life Project, the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, the Pew Hispanic Center, the Pew Global Attitudes Project, and Social & Demographic Trends. Note that Pew datasets are released on varying schedules, with some embargoed or not released to the public to protect the privacy or confidentiality of respondents.
• RAND Corporation RAND Corporation (Research ANd Development) is a nonprofit global policy think tank. It is currently financed by the U.S. government and private endowment, corporations including the healthcare industry, universities and private individuals. RAND aims for interdisciplinary and quantitative problem solving via translating theoretical concepts from formal economics and the physical sciences into novel applications in other areas; that is, via applied science and operations research.
• Center for American Progress The Center for American Progress is an independent nonpartisan educational institute dedicated to improving the lives of Americans through progressive ideas and action. Building on the achievements of progressive pioneers such as Teddy Roosevelt and Martin Luther King, CAP addresses 21st-century challenges such as energy, national security, economic growth and opportunity, immigration, education, and health care.
• Center on Budget and Policy Priorities The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is one of the nation’s premier policy organizations working at the federal and state levels on fiscal policy and public programs that affect low- and moderate-income families and individuals. more... less... Areas of interest include: Budget — Federal Congressional Action Deficits and Projections President's Budget Process Climate Change Food Assistance Child Nutrition and WIC Food Stamps Health Children’s Health Insurance Program Citizenship Documentation Health Reform Insurance Coverage Medicaid Medicare Tax Proposals and HSAs Housing Budget Other Issues Practitioners' Corner Public Housing Vouchers Poverty and Income Asset Tests Minimum Wage Trends Recession and Recovery Special Series: Economic Recovery Watch Stimulus Principles Stimulus Proposals Unemployment Simplifying Programs Social Security Accomplishments Financial Status Reform Proposals State Budget and Tax Budgets Federal-State Issues States in the Recession Tax and Spending Limits Taxes Tax — Federal 2001/2003 Tax Cuts Alternative Minimum Tax Businesses Earned Income Tax Credit Estate Tax Individuals and Families Other Issues Taxes and the Economy Welfare Reform/TANF Federal Policies State Policies Trends
• Economic Policy Institute An American think tank based in Washington, D.C. that carries out economic research and analyzes the economic impact of policies and proposals. The EPI describes itself as a non-partisan think tank that "seeks to include the needs of low- and middle-income workers in economic policy discussions". It is affiliated with the labor movement, and is usually described as presenting a liberal viewpoint on public policy issues. more... less... The EPI advocates for policies favorable for low- to moderate-income families in the United States. The EPI also assesses current economic policies and proposes new policies that EPI believes will protect and improve the living standards of working families.
• Human Rights Watch Human Rights Watch is a nonprofit, nongovernmental human rights organization made up of roughly 400 staff members around the globe. Its staff consists of human rights professionals including country experts, lawyers, journalists, and academics of diverse backgrounds and nationalities. Bias allegations include undue influence by United States government policy.
• The Inter-American Dialogue The Inter-American Dialogue is a U.S. based center for policy analysis, exchange, and communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs. The Dialogue brings together public and private leaders from across the Americas to address hemispheric problems and opportunities.
• American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research AEI is a private, nonpartisan, not-for-profit institution dedicated to research and education on issues of government, politics, economics, and social welfare. Founded in 1943, AEI is home to some of America's most accomplished public policy experts--from economics, law, political science, defense and foreign policy studies, ethics, theology, health care, and other fields. The Institute sponsors research and conferences and publishes books, monographs, and periodicals.
• Cato Institute An American libertarian think tank headquartered in Washington, D.C. It was founded as the Charles Koch Foundation in 1974 by Ed Crane, Murray Rothbard, and Charles Koch, chairman of the board and chief executive officer of the conglomerate Koch Industries. In July 1976, the name was changed to the Cato Institute. Cato was established to have a focus on public advocacy, media exposure and societal influence.
• Heritage Foundation Founded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institution—a think tank—whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.
• Hoover Institution The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University, is a public policy research center devoted to advanced study of politics, economics, and political economy—both domestic and foreign—as well as international affairs. With its world-renowned group of scholars and ongoing programs of policy-oriented research, the Hoover Institution puts its accumulated knowledge to work as a prominent contributor to the world marketplace of ideas defining a free society.
• Hudson Institute An American conservative non-profit think tank based in Washington, D.C. The Institute is committed to innovative research and analysis that promotes "global security, prosperity and freedom." It promotes public policy change in accordance with its stated belief that "America’s unique and central role in the global system offers the best foundation for security, the defense of liberty, and assuring economic growth."
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• The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

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Augmentation, Not Substitution: HCSS Manual for the Responsible Use of Generative AI

How can HCSS integrate Generative AI into its research practices responsibly? This new manual by Tim Sweijs, Jesse Kommandeur, and Abe de Ruijter outlines ten maxims for the effective and ethical use of Generative AI in applied research and policy analysis. The principles, which focus on confidentiality, transparency, and integrity, address the challenges and opportunities of using AI while safeguarding research quality.

The Dutch tank storage sector: Navigating uncertainty in the energy transition

How can the Dutch tank storage sector navigate the current uncertain energy landscape? This new HCSS paper by Irina Patrahau and Lucia van Geuns takes stock of trends and developments in the Dutch and European energy markets since 2022, assesses the impacts for the Dutch tank storage sector and makes recommendations for Dutch policymakers about ways to support storage infrastructure in an uncertain time.

De Nederlandse tankopslagsector: Omgaan met onzekerheid tijdens de energietransitie

De tankopslagsector is een essentiële speler in de wereldwijde toeleveringsketens voor energie, voedsel en industrie, maar tankopslagbedrijven en andere vormen van energie-infrastructuur zitten in een lastige positie. Onzekerheid over de snelheid en het karakter van de energietransitie leidt tot uitdagingen voor het nemen van noodzakelijke langetermijninvesteringsbeslissingen. Deze nieuwe HCSS paper door Irina Patrahau en Lucia van Geuns helpt de tankopslagsector te navigeren in dit onzekere energielandschap en komt met aanbevelingen voor Nederlandse beleidsmakers.

De uitdagingen van een oliehausse in Suriname

Suriname, het kleinste en minst bevolkte land van Zuid Amerika, heeft de potentie om een belangrijke olie- en gasproducent te worden, wat de economie ten goede zal komen en de bevolking uit de armoede kan tillen. Ondanks deze veelbelovende vooruitzichten zal de weg naar succes lang en hobbelig zijn, schrijven HCSS energie specialisten Lucia van Geuns en Jilles van den Beukel in hun essay. Kan Suriname duurzame ontwikkeling omarmen, de economie diversifiëren en zijn instituties versterken? Er is nu een belofte van een betere economische en sociaal rechtvaardige toekomst voor Suriname, maar de overheid moet wel de nodige stappen ondernemen om dit te verwezenlijken.

Far Seas, Hard Choices: Aligning Ambitious European Objectives with Capabilities and Coalitions for the Indo-Pacific

The most logical use of European naval capabilities does not lie in the Western Pacific, but rather in the Western Indian Ocean, conclude Davis Ellison, Benedetta Girardi and Laura Jasper in this new HCSS brief, which explores why and how different coalitions of European military forces can form and deploy to the Indo-Pacific, the trade-offs faced by European states as they seek both partners within Europe and in the region and the respective impacts these choices make on the military and economic dynamics of the region.

Looming and Lethal: Assessing the Operational Implications of Drone Use by Mexican Organized Crime Groups

Organized Crime groups in Mexico have been steadily integrating Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, aka drones, into their criminal operations. This new HCSS snapshot by Giulio Damiani and Laura Jasper analyses how UAVs have impacted three operational dimensions: trafficking of illicit goods, the surveillance of rival territory, and the coercion of groups who attempt to resist OCG violence. The snapshot also looks at the inherent risks of this emerging phenomenon in a European context: what can European states and law enforcement learn from understanding the criminal use of drones by organised crime groups in Mexico for the security of our own airspace?

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Europe in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new epicentre of geopolitical competition. Europe has begun its own tilt towards the Indo-Pacific, yet it remains unclear what specific role Europeans should play. The HCSS “Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH)” brings together scholars, experts and practitioners across Europe, Asia, as well as East-Africa and the US.

Strategic Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific: Partnership for Maintaining Inclusive and Stable Maritime Region

Debating EU Enhanced Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific: From Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) to Coordinated Maritime Presence (CMP)

Deterrence and Arms Control

Questions of deterrence and arms control have become more complicated over the past decade, driven by intensified geopolitical competition in Asia and Europe, by emerging technologies, or refinements in existing technologies. Today, the arms control regime of the Cold War is in trouble. How Europe can shape a reinvigorated arms control regime is a question which HCSS seeks to answer in our Deterrence and Arms Control programme.

The Role of Conventional Counterforce in NATO Strategy | Georgetown Security Studies Review

The Future of Nuclear Arms Control and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War

Empty Promises? A year inside the world of Multi-Domain Operations

Energy & Raw Materials

The energy transition is changing the architecture of economies by replacing the traditional fuels with new energy carriers. In this transition period, balancing the conventional energy system with the low-carbon one presents challenges for governments and companies alike. HCSS seeks to understand, analyse and address pressing geo-economic and geopolitical issues induced by the energy transition, such as the need for critical raw materials.

Climate & Security

The Climate & Security Program (CASP) is HCSS’ response to the urgent and ever increasing need for a better understanding of the most pressing geopolitical and security implications of climate change. CASP seeks to bridge the gap between researchers, policymakers and practitioners working on climate-related security challenges in Europe and around the world.

Developing effective adaptation strategies to water scarcity: Lessons learned from Jordan

IMCCS | World Climate and Security Report 2024: Military Innovation and the Climate Challenge

NL ARMS | Cooling the Cauldron: A Climate Security Intervention Framework

Strategic Monitor

In order to remain on top of the rapid changes in the international environment, the Dutch MFA and MoD have tasked HCSS and the Clingendael Institute to conduct research within the framework of the Strategic Monitor.

Guest Paper | What divides us? And the impact on democracy and stability

Guest Paper | A Latin American perspective on the key drivers of future international security trends

Write-up | Navigating Tomorrow: Transatlantic Outlooks on the Future Security Landscape and its Implications for the Netherlands

Strategic Technologies

HCSS produces data-driven research at the intersection of security and the Emerging Technologies shaping our future, such as semiconductors, quantum technology, artificial intelligence, cyber, robotics, biotechnology and photonics.

Defending the Digital Domain: The effort to build a cyber resilient India 2023 Edition – Updated Version

International Norms Development and AI in the Military Domain

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HCSS conducts research on geopolitical, defence & security issues to governments, international institutions and businesses. We combine broad conceptual knowledge, qualitative and quantitative methods and present our findings in the form of recommendations, strategic explorations and scenario analyses.

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De Strateeg: ‘Steun Oekraïne zonder VS zou maar 70 euro per EU-burger kosten’

De strateeg: ”de eu moet zich focussen op oekraïne en niet op het midden-oosten”.

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Note that the 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Report has a change from previous indexes. Any think tank that has ranked as the top think tank in a category for three consecutive years will not be included in the ranking list for the next three years; instead, it will be given a unique distinction: "Think Tank Center of Excellence." This year, the Brookings Institution (U.S.) received this distinction. Read more about this new classification on page 57 of the 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Report .

Top 75 Think Tanks Worldwide

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – United States
• Bruegel – Belgium
• French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) – France
• Center for Strategic and International Studies -- United States
• Fundação Getulio Vargas -- Brazil
• Chatham House -- United Kingdom
• International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) -- United Kingdom
• Heritage Foundation -- United States
• Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) -- United States
• Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars -- United States
• Center for American Progress (CAP) -- United States
• RAND Corporation -- United States
• Japan Institute of International Affairs -- Japan
• Fraser Institute -- Canada
• Konrad Adenauer Foundation -- Germany
• Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) -- United States
• Friedrich Ebert Foundation -- Germany
• China Institutes Of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) -- China
• Korea Development Institute (KDI) -- Republic of Korea
• Cato Institute -- United States
• Carnegie Middle East Center -- Lebanon
• Centre for European Policy Studies -- Belgium
• Brookings India -- India
• Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) -- Japan
• Clingendael -- The Netherlands
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Moscow Center – Russia
• Observer Research Foundation (ORF) – India
• Human Rights Watch -- United States
• Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) – Germany
• Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) -- Canada
• Stockholm Peace Research Institute -- Sweden
• Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) -- Republic of Korea
• Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) -- Russia
• Danish Institute for International Studies -- Denmark
• African Center for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) -- South Africa
• Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) -- Spain
• Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) -- Italy
• Chinese Academy of Social Sciences -- China
• American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) -- United States
• Amnesty International (AI) -- United Kingdom
• Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) -- India
• German Development Institute -- Germany
• Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales -- Argentina
• Razumkov Centre -- Ukraine
• IDEAS, London School of Economics -- United Kingdom
• Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) -- United Kingdom
• Elcano Royal Institute -- Spain
• Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) -- Italy
• German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) -- Germany English site
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• Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) -- Norway
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• Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC) -- Germany
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• Libertad y Desarrollo -- Chile
• Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) -- Australia
• Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) -- South Africa
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• Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs -- United States
• Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) -- Republic of Korea
• Center for China and Globalization (CCG) – China
• IMANI Center for Policy and Education — Ghana
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PPRC was established under the initiative of the Open Society Institute (Budapest). PPRC is one of 22 public policy institutes in Central and East Europe founded by the Soros Foundation Kazakhstan and the publicly funded Center for Analysis and Prognosis. The mission of PPRC is to identify appropriate solutions to strategic public policy issues and facilitate effective decision-making through professional analysis and open debate.

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Think tanks are institutions affiliated with universities, foundations, advocacy groups, and other organizations that generate policy research. Many are ideological; others strive to be non-partisan.

Breugel . European think tank devoted to global economic policy.

The Brookings Institution . Conduct research on ideas for solving problems facing society at the local, national and global levels.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . Network of research centers dedicated to peace through analysis & development of policy with government, business, & civil society.

Center for American Progress . Progressive research and advocacy organization "dedicated to improving the lives of Americans through progressive ideas and action."

Center for Strategic and International Studies .  International policy institute focused on defense, security; and many other transnational challenges.

Chatham House . The Royal Institute of International Affairs. Independent policy institute based in London dedicated to help build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.

Council on Foreign Relations . Important US Foreign Policy Institute and publisher of  Foreign Affairs . 

Harvard Center for International Development . Conducts research at international development at all academic levels.  See their  working papers .

Hoover Institution . Think tank at Stanford specializing in economic policy and international affairs.

International Peace Research Institute Oslo . Conducts research on peaceful relations between states, groups and people

Pew Research Center . Nonpartisan institute conducting public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research.

Peterson Institute for International Economics .  Nonpartisan research institution devoted to study of international economic policy.

Public Policy Institute of California . Seeks to inform and improve public policy in California through independent nonpartisan research.

RAND Corporation .  Addresses security, health, education, sustainability, growth, and development. Much research conducted on behalf of public & private grantors and clients.

Russell Sage Foundation . Works on improvement of social and living conditions in the United States.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) . International institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament.

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Key facts about Americans and guns

Guns are deeply ingrained in American society and the nation’s political debates.

The Second Amendment to the United States Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms, and about a third of U.S. adults say they personally own a gun. At the same time, in response to concerns such as  rising gun death rates  and  mass shootings , the U.S. surgeon general has taken the unprecedented step of declaring gun violence a public health crisis .

Here are some key findings about Americans’ views of gun ownership, gun policy and other subjects, drawn from Pew Research Center surveys. 

Pew Research Center conducted this analysis to summarize key facts about Americans’ relationships with guns. We used data from recent Center surveys to provide insights into Americans’ views on gun policy and how those views have changed over time, as well as to examine the proportion of adults who own guns and their reasons for doing so.

The Center survey questions used in this analysis, and more information about the surveys’ methodologies, and can be found at the links in the text.

Measuring gun ownership in the United States comes with unique challenges. Unlike many demographic measures, there is not a definitive data source from the government or elsewhere on how many American adults own guns.

The Pew Research Center survey conducted June 5-11, 2023, on the Center’s American Trends Panel, used two separate questions to measure personal and household ownership. About a third of adults (32%) say they own a gun, while another 10% say they do not personally own a gun but someone else in their household does. These shares have changed little from surveys conducted in  2021  and  2017 . In each of those surveys, 30% reported they owned a gun.

These numbers are largely consistent with  rates of gun ownership reported by Gallup and those reported by  NORC’s General Social Survey .  

The FBI maintains data on background checks on individuals attempting to purchase firearms in the United States. The FBI reported  a surge in background checks  in 2020 and 2021, during the coronavirus pandemic, but FBI statistics show that the number of federal background checks declined in 2022 and 2023. This pattern seems to be continuing so far in 2024. As of June, fewer background checks have been conducted than at the same point in 2023, according to FBI statistics.

About   four-in-ten U.S. adults say they live in a household with a gun, including 32% who say they personally own one,  according to  a Center survey conducted in June 2023 . These numbers are virtually unchanged since the last time we asked this question in 2021.

There are differences in gun ownership rates by political affiliation, gender, community type and other factors.

• Party: 45% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say they personally own a gun, compared with 20% of Democrats and Democratic leaners.
• Gender: 40% of men say they own a gun, versus 25% of women.
• Community type: 47% of adults living in rural areas report owning a firearm, as do smaller shares of those who live in suburbs (30%) or urban areas (20%).
• Race and ethnicity: 38% of White Americans own a gun, compared with smaller shares of Black (24%), Hispanic (20%) and Asian (10%) Americans.

Personal protection tops the list of reasons gun owners give for having a firearm.  About seven-in-ten gun owners (72%) say protection is a major reason they own a gun. Considerably smaller shares say that a major reason they own a gun is for hunting (32%), for sport shooting (30%), as part of a gun collection (15%) or for their job (7%). 

Americans’ reasons behind gun ownership have changed only modestly since we fielded a separate survey  about these topics in spring 2017. At that time, 67% of gun owners cited protection as a major reason they had a firearm.

Gun owners tend to have much more positive feelings about having a gun in the house than nonowners who live with them do.  For instance, 71% of gun owners say they enjoy owning a gun – but just 31% of nonowners living in a household with a gun say they enjoy having one in the home. And while 81% of gun owners say owning a gun makes them feel safer, a narrower majority of nonowners in gun households (57%) say the same. Nonowners are also more likely than owners to worry about having a gun at home (27% vs. 12%).

Feelings about gun ownership also differ by political affiliation, even among those who personally own a firearm. Republican gun owners are more likely than Democratic owners to say owning one gives them feelings of safety and enjoyment, while Democratic owners are more likely to say they worry about having a gun in the home.

Non-gun owners are split on whether they see themselves owning a firearm in the future.  About half of Americans who don’t own a gun (52%) say they could never see themselves owning one, while nearly as many (47%) could imagine themselves as gun owners in the future.

Among those who currently do not own a gun, attitudes about owning one in the future differ by party and other factors.

• Party: 61% of Republicans who don’t own a gun say they could see themselves owning one in the future, compared with 40% of Democrats.
• Gender: 56% of men who don’t own a gun say they could see themselves owning one someday; 40% of women nonowners say the same.
• Race and ethnicity: 56% of Black nonowners say they could see themselves owning a gun one day, compared with smaller shares of White (48%), Hispanic (40%) and Asian (38%) nonowners.

A majority of Americans (61%) say it is too easy to legally obtain a gun in this country, according to the June 2023 survey. Far fewer (9%) say it is too hard, while another 30% say it’s about right.

Non-gun owners are nearly twice as likely as gun owners to say it is too easy to legally obtain a gun (73% vs. 38%). Gun owners, in turn, are more than twice as likely as nonowners to say the ease of obtaining a gun is about right (48% vs. 20%).

There are differences by party and community type on this question, too. While 86% of Democrats say it is too easy to obtain a gun legally, far fewer Republicans (34%) say the same. Most urban (72%) and suburban (63%) residents say it’s too easy to legally obtain a gun, but rural residents are more divided: 47% say it is too easy, 41% say it is about right and 11% say it is too hard.

About six-in-ten U.S. adults (58%) favor stricter gun laws. Another 26% say that U.S. gun laws are about right, while 15% favor less strict gun laws.

There   is broad partisan agreement on some gun policy proposals, but most are politically divisive. Majorities of U.S. adults in both partisan coalitions somewhat or strongly favor two policies that would restrict gun access: preventing those with mental illnesses from purchasing guns (88% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats support this) and increasing the minimum age for buying guns to 21 years old (69% of Republicans, 90% of Democrats). Majorities in both parties also  oppose  allowing people to carry concealed firearms without a permit (60% of Republicans and 91% of Democrats oppose this).

Republicans and Democrats differ on several other proposals. While 85% of Democrats favor banning both assault-style weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines that hold more than 10 rounds, majorities of Republicans oppose  these proposals (57% and 54%, respectively).

Most Republicans, on the other hand, support allowing teachers and school officials to carry guns in K-12 schools (74%) and allowing people to carry concealed guns in more places (71%). These proposals are supported by just 27% and 19% of Democrats, respectively.

The public remains closely divided over whether it’s more important to protect gun rights or control gun ownership, according to an April 2024 survey . Overall, 51% of U.S. adults say it’s more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns, while a similar share (48%) say controlling gun ownership is more important.

Views have shifted slightly since 2022, when we last asked this question. That year, 47% of adults prioritized protecting Americans’ rights to own guns, while 52% said controlling gun ownership was more important.

Views on this topic differ sharply by party. In the most recent survey, 83% of Republicans say protecting gun rights is more important, while 79% of Democrats prioritize controlling gun ownership.

Americans are slightly more likely to say gun ownership does more to increase safety than to decrease it.  Around half of Americans (52%) say gun ownership does more to increase safety by allowing law-abiding citizens to protect themselves, while a slightly smaller share (47%) say gun ownership does more to reduce safety by giving too many people access to firearms and increasing misuse. Views were evenly divided (49% vs. 49%) when we last asked in 2023.

Republicans and Democrats differ widely on this question: 81% of Republicans say gun ownership does more to increase safety, while 74% of Democrats say it does more to reduce safety.

Rural and urban Americans also have starkly different views. Among adults who live in rural areas, 64% say gun ownership increases safety, while among those in urban areas, 57% say it  reduces  safety. Those living in the suburbs are about evenly split in their views.

More than half of U.S. adults say an increase in the number of guns in the country is bad for society, according to the April 2024 survey. Some 54% say, generally, this is very or somewhat bad for society. Another 21% say it is very or somewhat good for society, and a quarter say it is neither good nor bad for society.

About half of Americans (49%) see gun violence as a major problem,  according to a May 2024 survey. This is down from 60% in June 2023, but roughly on par with views in previous years. In the more recent survey, 27% say gun violence is a moderately big problem, and about a quarter say it is either a small problem (19%) or not a problem at all (4%).

A majority of public K-12 teachers (59%) say they are at least somewhat worried about the possibility of a shooting ever happening at their school, including 18% who are very or extremely worried, according to a fall 2023 Center survey of teachers . A smaller share of teachers (39%) say they are not too or not at all worried about a shooting occurring at their school.

School shootings are a concern for K-12 parents as well: 32% say they are very or extremely worried about a shooting ever happening at their children’s school, while 37% are somewhat worried, according to  a fall 2022 Center survey of parents with at least one child younger than 18 who is not homeschooled. Another 31% of K-12 parents say they are not too or not at all worried about this.

Note: This is an update of a post originally published on Jan. 5, 2016 .

• Partisanship & Issues
• Political Issues

Katherine Schaeffer is a research analyst at Pew Research Center .

Americans see little bipartisan common ground, but more on foreign policy than on abortion, guns

Little change in americans’ views of trump over the past year, republicans leery of compromise with biden; majority want gop to focus on investigations, how the political typology groups compare, worldwide optimism about future of gender equality, even as many see advantages for men, most popular.

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The documents that help shape new EU legislation

Latest published documents, common approach on return policy.

An effective return policy to remove from the EU third-country nationals who do not have the right to stay on EU territory requires common rules and procedures in the EU Member States. These must be implemented in accordance with fundamental rights obligations and with the principle of non refoulement. A robust framework for cooperation with third countries that are willing to accept returnees is also necessary Efforts to increase the number of returns have been a feature of EU migration policy for ...

Japan towards 2024 general elections

Shortly after having been elected Japan's Prime Minister in September 2024, Ishiba Shigeru called elections to the house of representatives (the lower house) to be held on 27 October. The vote will follow an intensive 12-day electoral campaign, against a backdrop of scandals involving members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), rising consumer prices, staple food shortages and security concerns over regional tensions. While this may weaken the LDP's majority, a divided opposition might ...

EU missions and operations abroad

Military operations and missions, and civilian missions, are an essential component of the EU's common foreign and security policy (CFSP) and, in particular, of its common security and defence policy (CSDP). In an extremely volatile security and geopolitical environment, both at its eastern and southern borders and further afield, the EU has always sought, when launching its operations and missions abroad, to help countries and regions in crisis to restore peace, security and development. This is ...

Maximising the Impact of EU Initiatives on Skills

This study provides details of the current situation and future trends in the EU concerning aspects related to skills demands, skills shortages, and skills mismatches. It takes into consideration the transformative role of the digital and green transitions and the labour market shifts determined by demographic changes. The analysis comprises a presentation of the various EU skills initiatives, assessing their impact, complementarity and gaps. And formulates a set of recommendations to address gaps ...

Understanding EU policy on firearms trafficking

Precise figures about the numbers of illegal firearms in the European Union (EU) are lacking, but several indicators point to their widespread availability and accessibility. According to the Small Arms Survey, over half of the estimated total number of firearms held by civilians in the EU in 2017 were unlicensed. While most of these citizens had no criminal intentions, their illicit firearms could be used for self-harm or domestic violence, or end up in the hands of criminals or terrorists. Most ...

Upcoming events

A delegation of 6 Members, led by MEP Lukas MANDL (EPP, AT), will travel to Guatemala from 28 to 30 October. The purpose of the mission is to review the EU development portfolio in the country, especially in the context of the current programming period.

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Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Russian offensive campaign assessment, october 22, 2024.

Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan

October 22, 2024, 5:40pm ET

Click  here  to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click  here  to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click  here  to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click  here  to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1pm ET on October 22. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the October 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes on the night of October 21 to 22 targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military.  Tula Oblast Governor Dmitry Milyaev claimed that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged distilleries in Yefremov and Luzhlovsky.[1] Russian opposition outlet  Astra  reported that the Ukrainian drone strike also damaged local Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) and Federal Security Service (FSB) buildings near the distillery in Yefremov.[2] Russian opposition and insider sources posted footage showing a fire near the Yefremov distillery, synthetic rubber plant (just northwest of the distillery), and thermal power plant (just northeast of the distillery).[3] Tambov Oblast Governor Maksim Egorov claimed that a drone struck the Biokhim enterprise in Rasskozovo, starting a fire.[4] Biokhim produces ethyl alcohol, and its website claims that it manufactures products that are of "strategic importance to the [Russian] state."[5] Voronezh Oblast Governor Aleksander Gusev claimed that Russian forces "suppressed" a drone that then fell on an unspecified industrial enterprise in Voronezh Oblast, damaging a workshop.[6] Head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Andriy Kovalenko stated that Russia uses alcohol factories to manufacture fuel for military needs and explosives.[7]

South Korea may be considering directly sending weapons and intelligence personnel to Ukraine in response to the reported deployment of North Korean troops to Russia to participate in Russia's war in Ukraine.  South Korea's  Yonhap News Agency  reported on October 22 that a South Korean government source stated that South Korea is considering sending South Korean military personnel, likely from intelligence units, to Ukraine to monitor North Korean forces' tactics and combat capabilities and to question captured North Koreans.[8] The source also reportedly stated that South Korea will prioritize giving Ukraine defensive weapons over lethal aid but, if South Korea were to provide lethal weapons, Seoul will first try to find a way to provide them indirectly to Ukraine. South Korean National Security Director Chang Ho-jin stated on June 20 following the initial creation of the Russian-North Korean strategic partnership agreement on June 19 that the agreement had encouraged South Korea to change its long-standing policy prohibiting the transfer of arms to Ukraine, and  Yonhap News Agency  reported on June 21 that South Korea was considering sending 155mm artillery shells and unspecified air defense systems to Ukraine.[9] South Korea's continued consideration of sending lethal aid to Ukraine comes against the backdrop of threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 20, when Putin stated that Seoul would be making "a very big mistake" if it decided to supply arms to Ukraine.[10]

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told  The War Zone  on October 22 that the first North Korean military personnel are expected to arrive in Kursk Oblast on October 23 but that it is unclear how large the force grouping will be or how they will be equipped.[11]  Newsweek  reported that a South Korean government official stated that North Korea sent fighter pilots to Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai in September 2024, possibly to train on Russian combat aircraft that Russia has allegedly supplied to North Korea, or to supplement Russia's pilot shortages.[12]

Thirty-six world leaders, including from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, South Africa, and Iran, arrived in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, for the 16th annual BRICS summit held from October 22 to 24 during which Russia will likely seek to establish mechanisms to enhance its war effort in Ukraine.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, the Taliban’s Minister of Trade and Industry Nooruddin Azizi, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and other world leaders also arrived in Kazan on October 22.[13] Russian President Vladimir Putin met with PRC President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit during which both leaders emphasized the importance of multifaceted Russia-PRC relations while Xi highlighted BRICS as a format for global strategic cooperation.[14] Putin also met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa with whom he discussed bilateral ties, the creation of a multipolar world order, and the use of national currencies in mutual trade settlements.[15] Modi reiterated the need to find  "the earliest possible" peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine and reaffirmed India’s role as a potential mediator.[16]

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri reported on October 22 that India returned 85 Indian citizens who had involuntarily joined the Russian military to fight in Ukraine and that Modi would negotiate with Russian authorities the return of 20 more Indian nationals during the BRICS summit.[17] Russia will likely use the BRICS summit as an opportunity to showcase its efforts at enhancing global ties with non-Western states and possibly establish deals and trade mechanisms through which it can support its war efforts in Ukraine by mitigating the impacts of Western sanctions.

A recent Russian opinion poll suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys widespread support among Russian citizens even though many do not agree with some of the Kremlin's policies, including the war in Ukraine.  Russian opposition outlets  Meduza  and  Current Time  reported on October 22 that they viewed the results of a recent poll conducted by independent Russian opposition polling organization Chronicles between September 10 and 17.[18] The Chronicles survey found that 78 percent of respondents stated that they generally approve of Putin's activities as Russian president but wanted the government to prioritize issues that are "directly opposite of the actual actions" of Putin, such as domestic social and economic problems (83 percent), a peace treaty with Ukraine that includes mutual concessions (61 percent), and the restoration of relations with Western states (43 percent). Putin has refrained from transferring the Russian economy to a full wartime footing, but the Russian government has nevertheless heavily focused Russian federal spending on defense and national security instead of social policies.[19] Putin has demonstrated that he is uninterested in agreeing to Russian concessions to Ukraine, repeatedly indicating that he is not interested in negotiations that do not result in Ukraine's complete capitulation and even demanding that Ukrainian forces withdraw from areas of eastern and southern Ukraine that Russian forces do not currently occupy.[20] Putin has repeatedly tried to distance himself from incompetent, corrupt, and overly bureaucratic Russian officials and has attempted to posture himself as a capable and caring leader who can quickly resolve average Russians' issues, despite the fact that he is behind the decision-making that most of the population appears to take issue with.[21]

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes on the night of October 21 to 22 targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military.
• South Korea may be considering directly sending weapons and intelligence personnel to Ukraine in response to the reported deployment of North Korean troops to Russia to participate in Russia's war in Ukraine.
• Thirty-six world leaders, including from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, South Africa, and Iran, arrived in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, for the 16th annual BRICS summit held from October 22 to 24 during which Russia will likely seek to establish mechanisms to enhance its war effort in Ukraine.
• A recent Russian opinion poll suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys widespread support among Russian citizens even though many do not agree with some of the Kremlin's policies, including about the war.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove and Vuhledar.
• Russian forces conducted multilateral military exercises with international partners. Iran hosted Russian and Omani naval forces as part of the "IMEX 2024" naval drills, which took place between October 19-20 in the Indian Ocean.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
• Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
• Russian Technological Adaptations
• Activities in Russian-occupied areas
• Significant Activity in Belarus

Russian forces recently advanced in the northern part of the Kursk Oblast salient. Geolocated footage published on October 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced in fields south of Sheptukhovka (southeast of Korenevo) during two platoon-sized mechanized assaults.[22] Russian sources reported intense fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Korenevo, particularly near Zeleny Shlyakh, Novoivanovka, and Lyubimovka.[23] Ukrainian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are using M1 Abrams tanks in Kursk Oblast for the first time in attacks near Novoivanovka.[24] A Russian milblogger claimed that fighting also continued west of the main Kursk Oblast salient in Glushkovsky Raion near Novy Put (southwest of Glushkovo).[25] Elements of the Russian 137th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division), 1434th "Akhmat-Chechnya" Regiment (likely a mobilized regiment), and 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Lyubimovka, while elements of the 11th VDV Brigade are operating southeast of Sudzha.[26] Elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet, Southern Military District [SMD]), 83rd VDV Brigade, and 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are also operating throughout Kursk Oblast.[27]

Please see topline text about Ukrainian strikes in Russia.

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast   ( Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on October 22 but did not make any confirmed advances. Ukrainian sources stated on October 22 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Starytsya (southwest of Vovchansk) and north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi.[28] Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Yevhenii Romanov stated on October 21 that Russian forces began using drones with wired communications in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[29] Romanov stated that the wired drones effectively act as conventional anti-tank guided missiles but that their effectiveness is impeded by the length of connective fiber optic wire, added weight of the wire, and the susceptibility to catch on obstacles. Romanov noted that Ukrainian forces have already developed methods to counter the wired Russian drones. Elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) continue to operate near Lyptsi.[30]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast  (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 22, but did not make any confirmed advances. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on October 22 that Russian forces seized Novosadove (northwest of Kreminna).[31] A Russian milblogger claimed on October 22 that Russian forces advanced northwest and southwest of Stelmakhivka (southeast of Kupyansk).[32] ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims. Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Kupyansk near Lyman Pershyi; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Zelenyi Hai, Stelmakhivka, Lozova, and Pishchane; west of Svatove near Dzherelne and Vyshneve; southwest of Svatove near Hrekivka, and in the direction of Katerynivka and Novomykhailivka; northwest of Kreminna near Makiivka, Novosadove; and west of Kreminna near Torske and Terny on October 21 to 22.[33] Elements of the Russian 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (4th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) and27th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) are operating near Stelmakhivka.[34]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast  (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast of Siversk near Vyimka, and south of Siversk near Pereizne on October 21 and 22, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline.[35] Elements of the Russian 2nd Artillery Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC]) are reportedly operating near Vyimka.[36]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on October 22, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Chasiv Yar near Vasyukivka and near Chasiv Yar itself on October 21 and 22.[37] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Chasiv Yar direction stated that Russian forces have conducted assaults every day in the past month and that Russian forces took advantage of foggy weather to cross the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal recently.[38] Elements of the Russian 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd AC) are reportedly operating in the Chasiv Yar direction; elements of the 8th "Hispaniola" Volunteer Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating in northeastern Chasiv Yar; and elements of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating within Chasiv Yar.[39]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction on October 22, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Toretsk itself and west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka on October 21 and 22.[40] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are transferring a large number of reinforcements from an unspecified sector of the front to Toretsk, which the milblogger claimed is currently the Russian military's main attack direction.[41]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on October 22 but did not make any confirmed advances. Geolocated footage published on October 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces continue to operate west of Krasnyi Yar (southeast of Pokrovsk).[42] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) and in northern Hirnyk (southeast of Selydove and southeast of Pokrovsk), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of these claims.[43] Russian forces continued attacking east of Pokrovsk near Promin, Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, and Myrolyubivka and southeast of Pokrovsk near Selydove, Lysivka, Mykhailivka, Krasnyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, Hirnyk, Novodmytrivka, Zoryane, Novoselydivka, and Izmailivka on October 21 and 22.[44] A Ukrainian officer in a brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that rainy conditions reduce the Russian military's ability to operate reconnaissance and strike drones but do not affect Russian artillery operations.[45] The officer stated that Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems are able to deactivate half of the Russian drones that approach Ukrainian positions.

Russian forces recently advanced east of Kurakhove amid continued offensive operations in the area on October 22. Geolocated footage published on October 22 showing Ukrainian forces repelling a roughly reduced company-sized Russian mechanized assault indicates that Russian forces advanced westward along the O0510 Marinka-Kurakhove highway, east of Kurakhove.[46] Russian forces continued attacking east and southeast of Kurakhove near Hostre, Dalne, and Heorhiivka on October 21 and 22.[47]

Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Donetsk City near Vuhledar amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on October 22. Geolocated footage published on October 22 showing Ukrainian forces striking Russian personnel of the Russian 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) indicates that Russian forces advanced in eastern Antonivka (northeast of Vuhledar).[48] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced northeast of Vuhledar near Antonivka, within Katerynivka, north of Vodyane, and northwest of Vuhledar near Bohoyavlenka, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.[49] Russian forces continued attacking near Antonivka, Katerynivka, and Yelyzavetivka (all northeast of Vuhledar); Bohoyavlenka and Novoukrainka (west of Vuhledar); and Zolota Nyva (west of Vuhledar) on October 21 and 22.[50] Elements of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, Eastern Military District [EMD]) reportedly continue operating near Vuhledar; elements of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th CAA, EMD) reportedly continue operating near Zolota Nyva; and elements of the "Aleppo" drone detachment of the 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th AC, EMD) reportedly continue operating near Yelyzavetivka.[51]

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces reported on ground activity in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on October 22. Snipers of the Russian 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th CAA, EMD) are reportedly operating in the Polohy direction (south of Hulyaipole).[52]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis  (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued assaults northeast of Robotyne near Mala Tokmachka on October 21 and 22, but there were no confirmed advances.[53] Ukrainian forces are reportedly counterattacking in Kamyanske (northwest of Robotyne).[54] Elements of the Russian 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating in the Polohy (eastern Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[55]

Russian forces continued attacks in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on October 21 but did not make any confirmed advances.[56]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign  (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 21 to 22, mainly targeting Sumy Oblast. Ukraine's Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 60 drones, including Shahed-136/131s and other drones of an unspecified type, from in Kursk Oblast and Yeysk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[57] Ukrainian forces shot down 17 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kyiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv oblasts and 25 over Sumy Oblast.[58] Ukraine's Air Force reported that 10 drones got "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference, one flew into Belarusian airspace, three flew back into Russian airspace, and one remained in Ukrainian airspace as of the morning of October 22.[59] Sumy Oblast officials reported that Shahed drones targeted Sumy City, killing three and damaging civilian infrastructure.[60]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts  (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian forces conducted multilateral military exercises with international partners. Iran hosted Russian and Omani naval forces as part of the "IMEX 2024" naval drills, which took place between October 19-20 in the Indian Ocean.[61] The exercises were intended to bolster collective security and increase multilateral cooperation between Iran, Russia, and Oman. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand observed the drills.[62] Such joint naval exercises are intended to posture against the United States in its regional areas of interest and increase the interoperability of various participating forces. Russian personnel of the 201st Military Base (Central Military District) additionally began the joint "Frontier-2024" as part of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)'s Collective Rapid Reaction Force format. Kazakh, Kyrgyz, and Tajik military personnel are participating in the exercises, which will practice fighting in mountain and desert terrain and providing air defense cover in such environments.[63]

The Kremlin posthumously awarded the Order of Courage to a Russian drone operator whose death sparked intense criticism amongst the Russian ultranationalist milblogger community. Russian milbloggers and media claimed that the Kremlin awarded Junior Sergeant Dmitry Lysakovsky (alias Goodwin), a deceased drone operator from the Russian 87th Separate Rifle Regiment (1st "Slavic" Motorized Rifle Brigade, 51st Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) with the Order of Courage on October 22.[64] ISW previously reported that Lysakovsky died in combat on September 13 after the Russian command disbanded his specialized drone unit and committed him to a frontal assault in Donetsk Oblast as punishment for criticizing the Russian command.[65] Lysakovsky’s death caused outrage within the Russian milblogger community as Russian milbloggers claimed that the 51st CAA’s practice of sending specialists to conduct frontal assaults as punishment for dissent is indicative of poor Russian command discipline and degrades the quality of Russian forces. ISW previously reported that Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with Russian milbloggers on September 27 to quell Russian milbloggers’ complaints about the death of Lysakovsky and another prominent Russian drone operator.[66]  The Kremlin's decision to posthumously award Goodwin with military honors is likely an additional effort to appease the complaints of the milblogger communities.

Russian Technological Adaptations  (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

Kremlin newswire  TASS  claimed on October 22 that the Russian company TsBK presented a new mini- first-person view (FPV) hexacopter drone that can carry a six-kilogram payload up to 12 kilometers without remote equipment and signal repeaters, or up to 20 kilometers with remote equipment and signal repeaters.[67]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas  (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

ISW is not publishing reporting on activities in Russian-occupied areas today.

Significant activity in Belarus  (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on October 22 that it has begun the routine dispatch of citizens called up for military service to their respective military units.[68] The Belarusian MoD noted that about 10,000 Belarusian citizens will enter units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Border Service, and various security agencies between October 22 and November 23. Personnel who have served the terms of their compulsory military service will in turn be released from their units during the same time period.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

[1] https://t.me/dmilyaev/1537; https://t.me/astrapress/66940

[2] https://t.me/astrapress/66940

[3] https://t.me/vchkogpu/51902; https://t.me/vchkogpu/51899; https://t.me/vchkogpu/51900 ; https://t.me/astrapress/66892

[4] https://t.me/egorovmb/4544;

[5] https://biohim68rsk dot ucoz.ru/index/o_predprijatii/0-17; https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/22/10/2024/671724f09a794740bd0555af?from=newsfeed; https://meduza dot io/news/2024/10/22/ukrainskie-bespilotniki-atakovali-dva-spirtzavoda-v-tulskoy-oblasti-i-odin-v-tambovskoy

[6] https://t.me/gusev_36/2905; https://t.me/gusev_36/2906

[7] https://newsukraine dot rbc.ua/news/russia-s-distilleries-hit-by-ukrainian-drones-1729586609.html

[8] https://en.yna dot co.kr/view/AEN20241022003400315?section=nk/nk; https://www.twz.com/news-features/south-korea-could-send-advisors-weapons-to-ukraine-over-north-korean-troop-movements

[9] https://isw.pub/UkrWar062324

[10] https://isw.pub/UkrWar062324

[11] https://www.twz.com/news-features/south-korea-could-send-advisors-weapons-to-ukraine-over-north-korean-troop-movements

[12] https://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-news-pilots-could-fly-russian-warplanes-ukraine-report-1972650

[13] https://t.me/tass_agency/280979; https://t.me/tass_agency/280818; https://t.me/tass_agency/280830 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/280905; https://t.me/tass_agency/280842; https://t.me/tass_agency/280975; https://t.me/tass_agency/280976; https://t.me/tass_agency/280995; https://t.me/tass_agency/280997 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/281002 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/281006; https://t.me/tass_agency/280785 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/280795; https://t.me/rybar/64659; https://ria dot ru/20241022/gazuani-1979362930.html; https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/22/putin-brics-summit-russia-china-india-iran-kazan; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-21/why-turkey-a-nato-member-wants-to-join-brics

[14] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/75370 ; http://kremlin dot ru/supplement/6214 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/280874 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/280969 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/280970 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/280971 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/280981

[15] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/75369 ; http://kremlin dot ru/supplement/6213; https://t.me/MID_Russia/46873; https://t.me/MID_Russia/46868; http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/75368 ; http://kremlin dot ru/supplement/6212; https://t.me/MID_Russia/46867

[16] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/75368 ; http://kremlin dot ru/supplement/6212

[17] https://www.hindustantimes dot com/india-news/85-indians-discharged-from-russian-army-india-working-for-release-of-20-more-101729523715856.html

[18] https://meduza dot io/news/2024/10/22/proekt-hroniki-bolshinstvo-zayavlyayuschih-o-podderzhke-putina-rossiyan-hotyat-veschey-polnostyu-protivopolozhnyh-ego-deystviyam-naprimer-mira-s-ukrainoy ; https://www.currenttime dot tv/a/rossiya-putin-opros/33168308.html ; https://www.chronicles dot report/chapter13

[19] https://isw.pub/UkrWar093024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar100624 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar090124; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15-2024

[20] https://isw.pub/UkrWar061424; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-18-2024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar101824; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/why-putin-remains-uninterested-meaningful-negotiations-ukraine

[21] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar121423

[22] https://x.com/moklasen/status/1848451574622007703; https://t.me/ombr41/861

[23] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/17784; https://t.me/dva_majors/55652?single; https://t.me/dva_majors/55652; https://t.me/motopatriot/28604; https://t.me/rusich_army/17873; https://t.me/dva_majors/55619; https://t.me/motopatriot/28589; https://t.me/mod_russia/44816; https://t.me/milinfolive/133389

[24] https://t.me/ButusovPlus/14463;  https://t.me/andriyshTime/28595  ; https://t.me/milinfolive/133333

[25] https://t.me/rybar/64633

[26] https://t.me/rybar/64633; https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1848461968828731404 ; https://t.me/kozhemiakoofficial/2020 ; https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1848466859735322891; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/79141

[27] https://t.me/mod_russia/44797; https://t.me/rusich_army/17873

[28]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02x3z8B5SiSL2hLYR65rL19LotJ9uxBT1rDnca7HBPWv9HqoyMqBKCRszbm2iXfFA8l  ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql

[29] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/10/21/drony-na-motuzochczi-zapuskayut-okupanty-na-harkivshhyni-chy-ye-poryatunok-vid-drotovyh-bpla/; https://youtu.be/j5TqaWCCdUg

[30] https://t.me/ButusovPlus/14464

[31] https://t.me/mod_russia/44813; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/17765; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/17712; https://t.me/epoddubny/21412; https://t.me/sashakots/49682 

[32] https://t.me/motopatriot/28608

[33] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02x3z8B5SiSL2hLYR65rL19LotJ9uxBT1rDnca7HBPWv9HqoyMqBKCRszbm2iXfFA8l

[34] https://t.me/motopatriot/28608

[35] https://t.me/epoddubny/21413; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql

[36] https://t.me/epoddubny/21413

[37] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02x3z8B5SiSL2hLYR65rL19LotJ9uxBT1rDnca7HBPWv9HqoyMqBKCRszbm2iXfFA8l; https://t.me/wargonzo/22741

[38] https://suspilne dot media/862945-ssa-vidilat-800-mln-na-virobnictvo-ukrainskih-bpla-seul-moze-nadislati-vijskovih-v-ukrainu-972-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1729600854&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwQl49tDPTk

[39] https://t.me/dva_majors/55605; https://t.me/tass_agency/280812 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/280824; https://t.me/dva_majors/55689; https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/43134

[40] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl; https://t.me/wargonzo/22741

[41] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/59677

[42] https://t.me/groupbpla/422; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7203; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-21-2024

[43] https://t.me/rybar/64630 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/59687 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/59691 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/141641 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/55619 ; https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/19210 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/17759

[44] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02x3z8B5SiSL2hLYR65rL19LotJ9uxBT1rDnca7HBPWv9HqoyMqBKCRszbm2iXfFA8l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl ; https://t.me/dva_majors/55619 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/141641 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/133392 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/59677

[45] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/10/22/negoda-chystyt-nebo-vid-droniv-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku/

[46] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7202; https://t.me/oaembr46/1096

[47] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02x3z8B5SiSL2hLYR65rL19LotJ9uxBT1rDnca7HBPWv9HqoyMqBKCRszbm2iXfFA8l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl

[48] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7205; https://t.me/gimbatov34/3803; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7207; https://t.me/dva_majors/55662

[49] https://t.me/motopatriot/28597; https://t.me/motopatriot/28584 ; https://t.me/rybar/64630 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/28764 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/79163 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/17781  

[50] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02x3z8B5SiSL2hLYR65rL19LotJ9uxBT1rDnca7HBPWv9HqoyMqBKCRszbm2iXfFA8l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/141641 ; https://t.me/rybar/64652 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/17781

[51] https://t.me/dva_majors/55647; https://t.me/Mestb_Dobroj_Voli/13123 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/11439 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/11440

[52] https://t.me/voin_dv/11432

[53] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0AVkt4xHYu2GUs24v997tQo9VwTCzN2Z5oa5AMKTRUsH1juk2Cb9zhF8tYuXSyDeql; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02x3z8B5SiSL2hLYR65rL19LotJ9uxBT1rDnca7HBPWv9HqoyMqBKCRszbm2iXfFA8l

[54] https://t.me/tass_agency/280968

[55] https://t.me/voin_dv/11432

[56] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026YR2i8SftPa9gBL4qs593hzMvdQN6Q7TUXX4HJdkhbZXBaFU3JJDNLywGkBvQUmTl

[57] https://t.me/kpszsu/21744

[58] https://t.me/kpszsu/21744; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/10/22/tragichna-nich-u-sumah-shahedy-zabraly-zhyttya-troh-lyudej-vklyuchno-z-dytynoyu/; https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/30782

[59] https://t.me/kpszsu/21744

[60] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/10/22/tragichna-nich-u-sumah-shahedy-zabraly-zhyttya-troh-lyudej-vklyuchno-z-dytynoyu/; https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/30782; https://t.me/suspilnesumy/25924

[61] https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-hosts-joint-naval-drills-with-russia-oman-indian-ocean-state-media-reports-2024-10-19/

[62] https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-hosts-joint-naval-drills-with-russia-oman-in-indian-ocean/7828715.html ; https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-hosts-joint-naval-drills-with-russia-oman-indian-ocean-state-media-reports-2024-10-19/

[63] https://t.me/odkb_csto/2116; https://t.me/MID_Russia/46869

[64] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/59689; https://t.me/wargonzo/22751 ; https://nn.tsargrad dot tv/news/guru-bpla-gudvin-nagrazhdjon-ordenom-muzhestva-posmertno_1071541

[65] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-14-2024

[66] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-27-2024

[67] https://t.me/tass_agency/280902  

[68] https://t.me/modmilby/42698

• Ars Lykaion
• News & Discussion

Russia’s space chief is “very unhappy” with “hostile” US policy

• Thread starter JournalBot
• Start date Feb 23, 2022
• Feb 23, 2022
• Replies: 72,081
• Add bookmark

"I am very unhappy with the openly hostile policy of the USA toward my country." Read the whole story  

Ars Praefectus

• Aug 31, 2024

Neverm1nd said: Maybe, but it seems more likely that they would have committed any reserves they have to either Kursk or Pokrovsk by now. Click to expand...

More options

Ars tribunus militum.

David Woodward said: I was trying to find a half remembered quote “War is the continuation of policy by other means” Carl von Clausewitz; and I came across a quote by Will Rogers, which I think is appropriate re Putin, “Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.” Click to expand...

Diplomacy Frequently Consists in Soothingly Saying “Nice Doggie” Until You Have a Chance to Pick Up a Rock – Quote Investigator®

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius

numerobis said: How does Russia get to launch glide bombs at the tip of that salient, without the planes being shot down? Click to expand...

Master stroke or folly? Ukraine could pay high price for its Kursk incursion

Ars Scholae Palatinae

KGFish said: An article about the Russian advance in Pokrovsk: Master stroke or folly? Ukraine could pay high price for its Kursk incursion The audacious operation has left cities in Donbas exposed to a rapid Russian advance www.telegraph.co.uk The Ukrainian think tank Center for Defense Strategies talks about a 4:1 advantage in troops, artillery, resources (sic), and drones. EW is apparently also strong - Ukrainians now need over a dozen FPVs to hit a tank in the area. I do think that Putin looks at the Kursk incursion as less of a problem for him than the loss of Pokrovsk is for Ukraine. Now what? Yes, Russia still has troops stuck behind the Seym, but that's obviously not a game changer either. Ukraine is not flanking towards Vovchansk, so no way to put pressure on Russia in that direction. It's still a bargaining chip, but I believe that Putin really places very little value on it. If Ukraine wants to take that territory back, it will need to hit somewhere in the salient before Russia has a chance to dig in. But it doesn't look to me like it has the troops or the material to do that and hold Kursk at the same time. Click to expand...

I realise it's unlikely, but I wonder if the reduction in tank kills might be partly down to the impact of Ukraine's campaign to set fire to every fuel depot and refinery within 500km of the border? Tanks are by far the most fuel-hungry vehicle in any ground army; even lightweight old T-55s and T-62s only manage 2-3 litre/km off-road, while BMPs are roughly 1 litre/km.  

Cthel said: I realise it's unlikely, but I wonder if the reduction in tank kills might be partly down to the impact of Ukraine's campaign to set fire to every fuel depot and refinery within 500km of the border? Tanks are by far the most fuel-hungry vehicle in any ground army; even lightweight old T-55s and T-62s only manage 2-3 litre/km off-road, while BMPs are roughly 1 litre/km. Click to expand...

mhalpern said: civilian and commercial vehicles would be converted to wood gas before that happened Click to expand...

Russia pushes on key Ukraine city of Pokrovsk while Kyiv's Kursk incursion slows

xoe said: I thought wood gas conversions were nontrivial, along with large scale wood gas production. Click to expand...

German elections: Far-right AfD on brink of political earthquake

Neverm1nd said: The odds of Russia actually taking Pokrovsk anytime soon are slim to none. The only "large" settlements Russia has taken in the past two years or so is Bachmut and Avdiika. Bachmut took 10 months and 100k casualties. Avdiika took almost the same a year later despite being only half the size. Pokrovsk is about the same size as Bachmut. It would likely take a year plus and cost Russia 100-200k casualties to capture the city. Given the shape of their salient, they can't really try to go around or encircle Pokrovsk without securing a lot more breadth either, and that's another thing which would take them over a year even at their current "accelerated" rate of advancement. They can make Pokrovsk much less attractive as a logistics hub, but I don't think they will even attempt to take the actual city. Not even the Russians are quite that stupid. Click to expand...

Disordered said: German elections: Far-right AfD on brink of political earthquake The far-right Alternative for Germany is set to do very well in state elections in the east. www.bbc.co.uk The Afd "People also talk of wanting to fight what they see as over-zealous green policies, state interference and ill-advised military support for Ukraine." I don't think extreme right-wing policies will help the genuine problems here. Far from it. Inequality, resistance to change, and invented grievances are being exploited. Click to expand...

• Sep 1, 2024

Ars Praetorian

KGFish said: Funny story - the AfD is in talks with BSW (translates as Coalition Sarah Wagenknecht), the new party formed by previous far-left politician Sarah Wagenknecht (who grew up in the GDR and still misses it). Where have I heard this story before of left-leaning politicians forming alliances with far-right ones.... Click to expand...

• 46 over the Kursk region
• 34 over the Bryansk region
• 28 over the Voronezh region
• 14 over the Belgorod region
• 8 over the Ryzan region
• 7 over the Moscow region
• 2 over Moscow
• 5 over Kaluga Oblast
• 4 over Lipetsk Oblast
• 3 over Tula Oblast
• 2 over Tambov Oblast
• 2 over Smolensk Oblast
• 1 over Orel Oblast
• 1 over Tver Oblast
• 1 over Ivanovo Oblast

DeepL Translate said: Firefighting crews are on their way to the area of the Moscow Oil Refinery (MNPZ), TASS reported citing operational services. According to Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, the technical premises of the Moscow Oil Refinery were damaged as a result of the downing of one of the drones. Click to expand...

• 1x Iskander-M TBM
• 11x Shahed-131/-136 aerial torpedoes [8 shot down]

chanman819 said: Many of the experienced units that had to be deployed to hold on in Avdiivka and Bakhmut when the situation got desperate are the ones now in Kursk. As for logistics, from Tatarigami_UA's map, the spur lines connecting radiating out from Pokrovsk don't connect to any other rail hubs. Click to expand...

DB63 said: Like people say, the political spectrum is not a line, it's a circle. Click to expand...

DovePig said: A non‑Euclidean finite space, perhaps? A Möbius loop? Travel long enough on the left‑right axis and you emerge mirrored from left to right. We could posit even more interesting geometries for three‑dimensional political spaces with finite volume. Click to expand...

The journalist who spied on me - before Putin brought him back to Russia

vhoracek said: Two axes, four quadrants. Political liberalism / economic liberalism / political authoritarianism / economic authoritarianism. All the nasty fuckers end up largely adjacent regardless of their nominal left/right affiliation. Click to expand...

Ars Legatus Legionis

Cthel said: * EDIT * video of the moment a refining unit heroically intercepted a marauding Ukrainian aerial torpedo Click to expand...

DovePig said: go far enough in the Pournelle's top‑left Ayn Rand corner, you end up in his bottom‑right Nazi corner and vice versa... Click to expand...

wagnerrp said: There’s what sounds like semi-automatic gunfire. I suppose if you’re going to fire off guns wildly in the middle of the city, best to be semi-automatic to limit your damage, but you’re never going to hit anything you intended that way. Click to expand...

Cthel said: Sunday morning's missile/drone attack summary from Russia : 158 UAVs shot down 46 over the Kursk region 34 over the Bryansk region 28 over the Voronezh region 14 over the Belgorod region 8 over the Ryzan region 7 over the Moscow region 2 over Moscow 5 over Kaluga Oblast 4 over Lipetsk Oblast 3 over Tula Oblast 2 over Tambov Oblast 2 over Smolensk Oblast 1 over Orel Oblast 1 over Tver Oblast 1 over Ivanovo Oblast Spoiler: telegram embed (RU) View: https://t.me/ostorozhno_novosti/29157 In totally unrelated news , an oil refinery inside the Moscow orbital motorway is on fire Spoiler: telegram video embed (RU) View: https://t.me/bbbreaking/189175 Firefighting helicopters are involved in fighting the fire. * EDIT * video of the moment a refining unit heroically intercepted a marauding Ukrainian aerial torpedo View: https://t.me/astrapress/63257 Click to expand...

Ukraine war: Russian air strikes injure dozens in Kharkiv

numerobis said: If they get an Austrian painter on board, it’s time to panic. Click to expand...

numerobis said: Would full auto on an AK-47 achieve any better results? Click to expand...

mhalpern said: with electro-optic image recognition guidance (what they are calling AI guided) close enough to lock and go for the softer bits. Click to expand...

mhalpern said: I suspect that the innovation from Ukraine of equipping drones with laser guided munitions is in part to help bypass EW. Click to expand...

wagnerrp said: IR guidance is as easy as finding the bright spot. (non-IR) EO has been simple enough ever since video compression became a thing. Actually identifying a target as a target, rather than just the shape originally pointed at, and moreover being programmed for weak spots on that identified target? I’m willing to accept that being called “AI”. Trouble is that you need a designator, and you need one in places you’re not going to have appropriately equipped ground forces. Are you going to put one on a drone? You’ll need a mechanically stabilized platform. Easier to just implement local EO guidance on the FPV drones. Click to expand...

Tom the Melaniephile

mhalpern said: a multirotor is a pretty stable platform Click to expand...

mhalpern said: and they do make small designators for drones Click to expand...

wagnerrp said: No they aren't. Your eyes compensate for small angle deviation, and "digital stabilization" (image cropping) can similarly compensate for small angle deviation. 1° from a mile away is 100ft off target. That's no good. But do they make designators for small drones? Or camera stabilization with sufficient accuracy? I'm seeing some hobbyist designs (AlexMos) claiming 0.1°. That's still 10', before factoring in the precision of the munition itself. Click to expand...

nitpicker357

Wise, aged ars veteran.

Today’s Perun: on Kursk and recent Ukrainian strategy. Short of it, Ukraine got a bunch of enemy troops allocated to Kursk, broadening the active front. It got some small tactical gains. It drastically changed international public opinion about whether Ukraine could win, which will likely (paradoxically) increase aid to them. And it has changed strategy and is targeting Russian aviation effectively by hitting fuel and ammunition depots. On the flip side, Russia is advancing in Pokrovsk faster than usual, with far less overwhelming barrages needed to get through. And Russian long-range strikes are much more damaging to the Ukrainian economy than Ukrainian strikes are to Russia’s economy.  

nitpicker357 said: I'd say just a manifold. The single axis is an artifact of the two-party system. Click to expand...