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Introduction

Climate change is happening now. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system since the mid-20th century is most likely to be due to human activities; and thus, is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change. Current warming has increasingly posed quite considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. Presently, some autonomous adaptation is taking place, but we need to consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development.

What does it take to ensure that adaptation planning has a scientific basis? Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. This is what climate scientists call a climate change scenario. It is a projection of the response of the climate system to future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and is simulated using climate models. Essentially, it describes possible future changes in climate variables (such as temperatures, rainfall, storminess, winds, etc.) based on baseline climatic conditions.

The climate change scenarios outputs (projections) are an important step forward in improving our understanding of our complex climate, particularly in the future. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Change Scenarios

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models (UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as GCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers wide. It should be noted that GCMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid. Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These emission scenarios cover a range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways. Table 1 presents the four different storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) as defined in the IPCC SRES.

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the future climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its plausible ranges.

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others. These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in models.

For the climate change scenarios in the Philippines presented in this Report, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are limited. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission scenario).

The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. On the other hand, the mid-range emission scenario indicates a future world of very rapid economic growth, with the global population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter and there is rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies with energy generation balanced across all sources. The low-range emission scenario, in contrast, indicates a world with local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing global population, but at a rate lower than of the high-range, intermediate levels of economic development, less rapid and more diverse technological change but oriented towards environment protection and social equity.

To start the climate simulations or model runs, outputs (climate information) from the relatively coarse resolution GCMs are used to provide high resolution (using finer grid boxes, normally 10km-100km) climate details, through the use of downscaling techniques. Downscaling is a method that derives local to regional scale (10km-100km x 10km-100km grids) information from larger-scale models (150km-300km x 150km-300km grids) as shown in Fig.1. The smaller the grid, the finer is the resolution giving more detailed climate information.

The climate simulations presented in this report used boundary data that were from the ECHAM4 and HadCM3Q0 (the regional climate models used in the PRECIS model software).

How were the downscaling techniques applied using the PRECIS model?

To run regional climate models, boundary conditions are needed in order to produce local climate scenarios. These boundary conditions are outputs of the GCMs. For the PRECIS model, the following boundary data and control runs were used:

For the high-range scenario, the GCM boundary data used was from ECHAM4. This is the 4th generation coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which uses a comprehensive parameterization package developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. Downscaling was to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km; thus, allowing more detailed regional information of the projected climate. Simulated baseline climate used for evaluation of the models capacity of reproducing present climate was the 1971-2000 model run. Its outputs were compared with the 1971-2000 observed values.

For the mid-range scenario, the GCM boundary data was from the HadCM3Q0 version 3 of the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre. Downscaling was also to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km and the same validation process was undertaken.

For running the low-range scenario, the same ECHAM4 model was used. However, the validation process was only for the period of 1989 to 2000 because the available GCM boundary data in the model was limited to this period.

The simulations for all 3 scenarios were for three periods; 1971 to 2000, 2020 and 2050. The period 1971 to 2000 simulation is referred to as the baseline climate, outputs of which are used to evaluate the models capacity of reproducing present climate (in other words, the control run). By comparing the outputs (i.e., temperature and rainfall) with the observed values for the 1971 to 2000 period, the models ability to realistically represent the regional climatological features within the country is verified. The differences between the outputs and the observed values are called the biases of the model. The 2020 and 2050 outputs are then mathematically corrected, based on the comparison of the models performance.

The main outputs of the simulations for the three SRES scenarios (high-range, mid-range and low-range) are the following:

• projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature
• projected changes in minimum and maximum temperatures
• projected changes in seasonal rainfall and
• projected frequency of extreme events

The seasonal variations are as follows:

• the DJF (December, January, February or northeast monsoon locally known as amihan) season
• the MAM (March, April, May or summer) season
• the JJA (June, July, August or southwest monsoon season, or habagat) season and
• the SON (September, October, November or transition from southwest to northeast monsoon) season

On the other hand, extreme events are defined as follows:

• extreme temperature (assessed as number of days with maximum temperature greater than 35°C, following the threshold values used in other countries in the Asia Pacific region)
• dry days (assessed as number of dry days or day with rainfall equal or less than 2.5mm/day, following the World Meteorological Organization standard definition of dry days used in a number of countries) and
• extreme rainfall (assessed as number of days with daily rainfall greater than 300mm, which for wet tropical areas, like the Philippines, is considerably intense that could trigger disastrous events).

How were the uncertainties in the modeling simulations dealt with?

Modeling of our future climate always entails uncertainties. These are inherent in each step in the simulations/modeling done because of a number of reasons. Firstly, emissions scenarios are uncertain. Predicting emissions is largely dependent on how we can predict human behavior, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies (which include predicting results of the international negotiations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Secondly, current understanding of the carbon cycle and of sources and sinks of non-carbon greenhouse gases are still incomplete. Thirdly, consideration of very complex feedback processes in the climate system in the climate models used can also contribute to the uncertainties in the outputs generated as these could not be adequately represented in the models.

But while it is difficult to predict global greenhouse gas emission rates far into the future, it is stressed that projections for up to 2050 show little variation between different emission scenarios, as these near-term changes in climate are strongly affected by greenhouse gases that have already been emitted and will stay in the atmosphere for the next 50 years. Hence, for projections for the near-term until 2065, outputs of the mid-range emission scenario are presented in detail in this Report.

Ideally, numerous climate models and a number of the emission scenarios provided in the SRES should be used in developing the climate change scenarios in order to account for the limitations in each of the models used, and the numerous ways global greenhouse gas emissions would go. The different model outputs should then be analyzed to calculate the median of the future climate projections in the selected time slices. By running more climate models for each emission scenarios, the higher is the statistical confidence in the resulting projections as these constitute the ensemble representing the median values of the model outputs.

The climate projections for the three emission scenarios were obtained using the PRECIS model only due to several constraints and limitations. These constraints and limitations are:

Access to climate models: at the start, PAGASA had not accessed climate models due to computing and technical capacity requirements needed to run them;

Time constraints: the use of currently available computers required substantial computing time to run the models (measured in weeks and months). This had been partly addressed under the capacity upgrading initiatives being implemented by the MDGF Joint Programme which include procurement of more powerful computers and acquiring new downscaling techniques. Improved equipment and new techniques have reduced the computing time requirements to run the models. However, additional time is still needed to run the models using newly acquired downscaling techniques; and

The PAGASA strives to improve confidence in the climate projections and is continuously exerting efforts to upgrade its technical capacities and capabilities. Models are run as soon as these are acquired with the end-goal of producing an ensemble of the projections. Updates on the projections, including comparisons with the current results, will be provided as soon as these are available.

What is the level of confidence in the climate projections?

The IPCC stresses that there is a large degree of uncertainty in predicting what the future world will be despite taking into account all reasonable future developments. Nevertheless, there is high confidence in the occurrence of global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by humans, as affirmed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Global climate simulations done to project climate scenarios until the end of the 21st century indicate that, although there are vast differences between the various scenarios, the values of temperature increase begin to diverge only after the middle of this century (shown in Fig.3). The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases (in particular, that of carbon dioxide) already in the atmosphere is the reason for this behavior of this climate response to largely varying emission scenarios.

Model outputs that represent the plausible local climate scenarios in this Report are indicative to the extent that they reflect the large-scale changes (in the regional climate model used) modified by the projected local conditions in the country.

It also should be stressed further that confidence in the climate change information depends on the variable being considered (e.g., temperature increase, rainfall change, extreme event indices, etc.). In all the model runs regardless of emission scenarios used, there is greater confidence in the projections of mean temperature than that of the others. On the other hand, projections of rainfall and extreme events entail consideration of convective processes which are inherently complex, and thus, limiting the degree of confidence in the outputs.

What are the possible applications of these model-generated climate scenarios?

Climate scenarios are commonly required in climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments to provide alternative views of future conditions considered likely to affect society, systems and sectors, including a quantification of climate risks, challenges and opportunities. climate scenario outputs could be used in any of the following:.

• to illustrate projected climate change in a given administrative region/province
• to provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies
• to communicate potential consequences of climate change (e.g., specifying a future changed climate to estimate potential shifts in say, vegetation, species threatened or at risk of extinction, etc.) and
• for strategic planning (e.g., quantifying projected sea level rise and other climate changes for the design of coastal infrastructure/defenses such as sea walls, etc.)

Current Climate and Observed Trends

Current climate change in the philippines.

The world has increasingly been concerned with the changes in our climate due largely to adverse impacts being seen not just globally, but also in regional, national and even, local scales. In 1988, the United Nations established the IPCC to evaluate the risks of climate change and provide objective information to governments and various communities such as the academe, research organizations, private sector, etc. The IPCC has successively done and published its scientific assessment reports on climate change, the first of which was released in 1990. These reports constitute consensus documents produced by numerous lead authors, contributing authors and review experts representing Country Parties of the UNFCCC, including invited eminent scientists in the field from all over the globe.

In 2007, the IPCC made its strongest statement yet on climate change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), when it concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the warming during the last 50 years or so (e.g., since the mid-20th century) is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. It is also very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue into the future, and that these will be larger than those seen in our recent past (IPCC, 2007a).

Fig.4 shows the 0.74 C increase in global mean temperature during the last 150 years compared with the 1961-1990 global average. It is the steep increase in temperature since the mid-20th century that is causing worldwide concern, particularly in terms of increasing vulnerability of poor developing countries, like the Philippines, to adverse impacts of even incremental changes in temperatures.

The IPCC AR4 further states that the substantial body of evidence that support this most recent warming includes rising surface temperature, sea level rise and decrease in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere (shown in Fig.5).

Additionally, there have been changes in extreme events globally and these include;

• widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed;
• cold days, cold nights and frost becoming less frequent;
• hot days, hot nights and heat waves becoming more frequent; and
• observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

However, there are differences between and within regions. For instance, in the Southeast Asia region which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed; although magnitude varies from one country to another. Changes in rainfall patterns, characteristically defined by changes in monsoon performance, have also been noted. Analysis of trends of extreme daily events (temperatures and rainfall) in the Asia Pacific region (including Australia and New Zealand, and parts of China and Japan) also indicate spatial coherence in the increase of hot days, warm nights and heat waves, and the decrease of cold days, cold nights and frost; although, there is no definite direction of rainfall change across the entire region (Manton et. al., 2001).

Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

The Philippines, like most parts of the globe, has also exhibited increasing temperatures as shown in Fig.6 below. The graph of observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of 0.648 C or an average of 0.0108 C per year-increase.

The increase in maximum (or daytime) temperatures and minimum (or night time) temperatures are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8. During the last 60 years, maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively.

Analysis of trends of tropical cyclone occurrence or passage within the so-called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year. The trend shows a high variability over the decades but there is no indication of increase in the frequency. However, there is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El NiÑo event (See Fig.10).

Moreover, the analysis on tropical cyclone passage over the three main islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), the 30-year running means show that there has been a slight increase in the Visayas during the 1971 to 2000 as compared with the 1951 to 1980 and 1960-1990 periods (See Fig.11).

To detect trends in extreme daily events, indices had been developed and used. Analysis of extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (hot-days index and cold-nights index, respectively) show there are statistically significant increasing number of hot days but decreasing number of cool nights (as shown in Fig.12 and Fig.13). 

However, the trends of increases or decreases in extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant; although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically significant (see in Fig.14). Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, also, not statistically significant (as shown in Fig.15).

The rates of increases or decreases in the trends are point values (i.e., specific values in the synoptic weather stations only) and are available at PAGASA, if needed.

Climate Projections

Projections on seasonal temperature increase and rainfall change, and total frequency of extreme events nationally and in the provinces using the mid-range scenario outputs are presented in this chapter. A comparison of these values with the high- and low- range scenarios in 2020 and 2050 is provided in the technical annexes.

It is to be noted that all the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000) climate. For example, a projected 1.0 C-increase in 2020 in a province means that 1.0 C is added to the baseline mean temperature value of the province as indicated in the table to arrive at the value of projected mean temperature. Therefore, if the baseline mean temperature is 27.8 C, then the projected mean temperature in the future is (27.8 C + 1.0 C) or 28.8 C.

In a similar manner, for say, a +25%-rainfall change in a province, it means that 25% of the seasonal mean rainfall value in the said province (from table of baseline climate) is added to the mean value. Thus, if the baseline seasonal rainfall is 900mm, then projected rainfall in the future is 900mm + 225mm or 1125mm.

This means that we are already experiencing some of the climate change shown in the findings under the mid-range scenario, as we are now into the second decade of the century. Classification of climate used the Corona's four climate types (Types I to IV), based on monthly rainfall received during the year. A province is considered to have Type I climate if there is a distinct dry and a wet season; wet from June to November and dry, the rest of the year. Type II climate is when there is no dry period at all throughout the year, with a pronounced wet season from November to February. On the other hand, Type III climate is when there is a short dry season, usually from February to April, and Type IV climate is when the rainfall is almost evenly distributed during the whole year. The climate classification in the Philippines is shown in Fig.16.

Seasonal Temperature Change

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months. Mean temperatures in all areas in the Philippines are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050. Likewise, all seasonal mean temperatures will also have increases in these time slices; and these increases during the four seasons are quite consistent in all parts of the country. Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season.

Seasonal Rainfall Change

Generally, there is reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country during the summer (MAM) season. However, rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON) season in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, and also, during the northeast monsoon (DJF) season, particularly, in provinces/areas characterized as Type II climate in 2020 and 2050. There is however, generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.

There are varied trends in the magnitude and direction of the rainfall changes, both in 2020 and 2050. What the projections clearly indicate are the likely increase in the performance of the southwest and the northeast monsoons in the provinces exposed to these climate controls when they prevail over the country. Moreover, the usually wet seasons become wetter with the usually dry seasons becoming also drier; and these could lead to more occurrences of floods and dry spells/droughts, respectively.

Extreme Temperature Events

Hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent in the future. Fig.19 shows that the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C (following value used by other countries in the Asia Pacific region in extreme events analysis) is increasing in 2020 and 2050.

Extreme Rainfall Events

Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only, but number of dry days is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050. Figures 20 and 21 show the projected increase in number of dry days (with dry day defined as that with rainfall less than 2.5mm) and the increase in number of days with extreme rainfall (defined as daily rainfall exceeding 300 mm) compared with the observed (baseline) values, respectively.

Climate Projections for Provinces

Impacts of climate change.

Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. Its adverse impacts are already being seen and may intensify exponentially over time if nothing is done to reduce further emissions of greenhouse gases. Decisively dealing NOW with climate change is key to ensuring sustainable development, poverty eradication and safeguarding economic growth. Scientific assessments indicate that the cost of inaction now will be more costly in the future. Thus, economic development needs to be shifted to a low-carbon emission path.

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the problem. The Philippines signed the UNFCCC on 12 June 1992 and ratified the international treaty on 2 August 1994. Presently, the Convention enjoys near-universal membership, with 194 Country Parties.

Recognizing that the climate system is a shared resource which is greatly affected by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the UNFCCC has set out an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. Its ultimate objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Countries are actively discussing and negotiating ways to deal with the climate change problem within the UNFCCC using two central approaches. The first task is to address the root cause by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. The means to achieve this are very contentious, as it will require radical changes in the way many societies are organized, especially in respect to fossil fuel use, industry operations, land use, and development. Within the climate change arena, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is called mitigation.

The second task in responding to climate change is to manage its impacts. Future impacts on the environment and society are now inevitable, owing to the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere from past decades of industrial and other human activities, and to the added amounts from continued emissions over the next few decades until such time as mitigation policies and actions become effective. We are therefore committed to changes in the climate. Taking steps to cope with the changed climate conditions both in terms of reducing adverse impacts and taking advantage of potential benefits is called adaptation.

What if the emissions are less or greater?

Responses of the local climate to the mid-range compared to the high- and low-range scenarios are as shown in Fig. 22 below. Although there are vast differences in the projections, the so-called temperature anomalies or difference in surface temperature increase begin to diverge only in the middle of the 21st century. As has already been stated, the climate in the next 30 to 40 years is greatly influenced by past greenhouse gas emissions. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, with the exception of methane (with a lifetime of only 13 years), will mean that it will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize even if mitigation measures are put in place, not withstanding that in the near future, there could be some off-setting between sulfate aerosols (cooling effect) and the greenhouse gas concentrations (warming effect).

Likely impacts of Climate Change

A warmer world is certain to impact on systems and sectors; although, magnitude of impacts will depend on factors such as sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risks. In most cases, likely impacts will be adverse. However, there could be instances when likely impacts present opportunities for potential benefits as in the case of the so-called carbon fertilization effect in which increased carbon dioxide could lead to increased yield provided temperatures do not exceed threshold values for a given crop/cultivar.

Water Resources

In areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress (both in quantity and quality), which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts, particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement. Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount of water in watersheds and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers, especially those in rain fed areas, thereby, limiting agricultural production. Likewise, energy production from dams could also be rendered insufficient in those areas where rainfall is projected to decrease, and thus, could largely affect the energy sufficiency program of the country. Design of infrastructure, particularly of dams, will need to be re-visited to ensure that these will not be severely affected by the projected longer drier periods.

In areas where rainfall could be intense during wet periods, flooding events would follow and may pose danger to human settlements and infrastructure, in terms of landslides and mudslides, most especially, in geologically weak areas. Additionally, these flooding events could impact severely on public infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, including classrooms, evacuation centers, and hospitals.

Adaptive capacity is enhanced when impact and vulnerability assessments are used as the basis of strategic and long-term planning for adaptation. Assessments would indicate areas where critical water shortages can be expected leading to possible reduction of water available for domestic consumption, less irrigation service delivery, and possibly, decreased energy generation in dams. Note that the adverse impacts would cascade, so that long-term pro-active planning for these possible impacts is imperative in order to be able to respond effectively, and avoid maladaptations. A number of adaptation strategies should be considered. Among the wide array of cost effective options are rational water management, planning to avoid mismatch between water supply and demand through policies, upgrading/rehabilitation of dams where these are cost-effective, changes in cropping patterns in agricultural areas, establishing rain water collection facilities, where possible, and early warning systems.

Changes in rainfall regimes and patterns resulting to increase/decrease in water use and temperature increases could lead to a change in the forests ecosystem, particularly in areas where the rains are severely limited, and can no longer provide favorable conditions for certain highly sensitive species. Some of our forests could face die-backs. Additionally, drier periods and warmer temperatures, especially during the warm phase of El Nino events, could cause forest fires. A very likely threat to communities that largely depend on the ecological services provided by forests is that they may face the need to alter their traditions and livelihoods. This change in practices and behavior can lead to further degradation of the environment as they resort to more extensive agricultural production in already degraded areas.

Adverse impacts on forestry areas and resources could be expected to multiply in a future warmer world. The value of impact and vulnerability assessments could not be underscored. These assessments would help decision makers and stakeholders identify the best option to address the different impacts on forest areas, watersheds and agroforestry. Indigenous communities have to plan for climate-resilient alternative livelihoods. Thus, it is highly important to plan for rational forest management, particularly, in protected areas and in ancestral domains. One of the more important issues to consider is how to safeguard livelihoods in affected communities so as not to further exacerbate land degradation. Early warning systems in this sector will play a very important role in forest protection through avoidance and control/containment of forest fires.

Agriculture

Agriculture in the country could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns. Crops have been shown to suffer decreases in yields whenever temperatures have exceeded threshold values and possibly result to spikelet sterility, as in the case of rice. The reduction in crop yield would remain unmitigated or even aggravated if management technologies are not put in place. Additionally, in areas where rain patterns change or when extreme events such as floods or droughts happen more often, grain and other agricultural produce could suffer shortfalls in the absence of effective and timely interventions. Tropical cyclones, particularly if there will be an increase in numbers and/or strength will continue to exert pressure on agricultural production.

Moreover, temperature increases coupled with rainfall changes could affect the incidence/outbreaks of pests and diseases, both in plants and animals. The pathways through which diseases and pests could be triggered and rendered most favorable to spread are still largely unknown. It is therefore important that research focus on these issues.

In the fisheries sub-sector, migration of fish to cooler and deeper waters would force the fisher folks to travel further from the coasts in order to increase their catch. Seaweed production, already being practiced as an adaptation to climate change in a number of poor and depressed coastal communities could also be impacted adversely.

Decreased yields and inadequate job opportunities in the agricultural sector could lead to migration and shifts in population, resulting to more pressure in already depressed urban areas, particularly in mega cities. Food security will largely be affected, especially if timely, effective and efficient interventions are not put in place. Insufficient food supply could further lead to more malnutrition, higher poverty levels, and possibly, heightened social unrest and conflict in certain areas in the country, and even among the indigenous tribes.

A careful assessment of primary and secondary impacts in this sector, particularly, in production systems and livelihoods will go a long way in avoiding food security and livelihood issues. Proactive planning (short- and long-term adaptation measures) will help in attaining poverty eradication, sufficient nutrition and secure livelihoods goals. There is a wide cross-section of adaptation strategies that could be put in place, such as horizontal and vertical diversification of crops, farmer field schools which incorporate use of weather/climate information in agricultural operations, including policy environment for subsidies and climate-friendly agricultural technologies, weather-based insurance, and others. To date, there has not been much R&D that has been done on inland and marine fisheries technologies, a research agenda on resilient marine sector could form part of long-term planning for this subsector.

Coastal Resources

The countrys coastal resources are highly vulnerable due to its extensive coastlines. Sea level rise is highly likely in a changing climate, and low-lying islands will face permanent inundation in the future. The combined effects of continued temperature increases, changes in rainfall and accelerated sea level rise, and tropical cyclone occurrences including the associated storm surges would expose coastal communities to higher levels of threat to life and property. The livelihood of these communities would also be threatened in terms of further stress to their fishing opportunities, loss of productive agricultural lands and saltwater intrusion, among others.

Impact and vulnerability assessment as well as adaptation planning for these coastal areas are of high priority. Adaptation measures range from physical structures such as sea walls where they still are cost-effective, to development/revision of land use plans using risk maps as the basis, to early warning systems for severe weather, including advisories on storm surge probabilities, as well as planning for and developing resilient livelihoods where traditional fishing/ agriculture are no longer viable.

Human health is one of the most vital sectors which will be severely affected by climate change. Incremental increases in temperatures and rain regimes could trigger a number of adverse impacts; in particular, the outbreak and spread of water-based and vector-borne diseases leading to higher morbidity and mortality; increased incidence of pulmonary illnesses among young children and cardiovascular diseases among the elderly. In addition, there could also be increased health risk from poor air quality especially in urbanized areas.

Surveillance systems and infrastructure for monitoring and prevention of epidemics could also be under severe stress when there is a confluence of circumstances. Hospitals and clinics, and evacuation centers and resettlement areas could also be severely affected under increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events.

Moreover, malnutrition is expected to become more severe with more frequent occurrences of extreme events that disrupt food supply and provision of health services. The services of the Department of Health will be severely tested unless early and periodic assessments of plausible impacts of climate change are undertaken.

Scientific assessments have indicated that the Earth is now committed to continued and faster warming unless drastic global mitigation action is put in place the soonest. The likely impacts of climate change are numerous and most could seriously hinder the realization of targets set under the Millennium Development Goals; and thus, sustainable development. Under the UNFCCC, Country Parties have common but differentiated responsibilities. All Country Parties share the common responsibility of protecting the climate system but must shoulder different responsibilities. This means that the developed countries including those whose economies are in transition (or the so-called Annex 1 Parties) have an obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions based on their emissions at 1990 levels and provide assistance to developing countries (or the so-called non-Annex 1 Parties) to adapt to impacts of climate change.

In addition, the commitment to mitigate or reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by countries which share the responsibility of having historically caused this global problem, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol, is dictated by the imperative to avoid what climate scientists refer to as the climate change tipping point. Tipping point is defined as the maximum temperature increase that could happen within the century, which could lead to sudden and dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth. The effects of these changes could be varied from a dramatic rise in sea levels that could flood coastal regions to widespread crop failures. But, it still is possible to avoid them with cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, both in the developed and developing countries, in particular, those which are now fast approaching the emission levels seen in rich countries.

In the Philippines, there are now a number of assisted climate change adaptation programmes and projects that are being implemented. Among these are the Millennium Development Goals Fund 1656: Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change funded by the Government of Spain, the Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (which aims to develop the resiliency and test adaptation strategies that will develop the resiliency of farms and natural resource management to the effects of climate change) funded by the Global Environmental Facility(GEF) through the World Bank, the Adaptation to Climate Change and Conservation of Biodiversity Project and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (envisioned to develop the adaptation capacity of communities), both funded by the GTZ, Germany.

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The Philippines: Leading the Way In the Climate Fight

The Philippines is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate disasters. With more than 7,100 islands and an estimated 36,298 kilometers of coastline, more than 60 percent of the Filipino population resides within the coastal zone and are acutely impacted by climate change . Dangers include food and fresh water scarcity, damage to infrastructure and devastating sea-level rise. However, with an innate understanding of the acute impacts of climate change, the Philippines is one of the world's strongest voices leading the global movement, combatting the problem and ultimately setting an example in adapting to climate change. The nation is acting with urency and commitment — passing legislation, promoting the use of renewable energy and focusing on country-wide conservation.

That is why former US Vice President Al Gore and The Climate Reality Project hosted the 31st Climate Reality Leadership Corps Training in Manila. The Climate Reality Leadership Corps is a global network of activists committed to taking on the climate crisis and working to solve the greatest challenge of our time. The decade-long program has worked with thousands of individuals, providing training in climate science, communications, and organizing to tell the story of climate change and inspire leaders to be agents of change in their local communities.

As the president and CEO of The Climate Reality Project, I am thrilled to contribute to the training of more than 700 new Climate Reality Leaders . These individuals from all over the world are leaders in their own communities, local governments, and businesses, who each care deeply about combatting climate change. At the training, they had the opportunity to learn from some of the best and brightest in their respective fields including Vice President Gore, Senator Loren Legarda, and Mayor of Tacloban Alfred Romualdez as well as world-class scientists, policy-makers, faith leaders, communicators, and technical specialists. These leaders offered specific guidance to trainees on the science of climate change, the cost of climate impacts, and the Paris Agreement that established the framework to transition to a global clean energy economy. After the training, trainees emerged as energized and skilled communicators with the knowledge, tools, and drive to take action, educating diverse global communities on the costs of carbon pollution and what can be done to solve the climate crisis.

Unsurprisingly, a large percentage of the trainees who attended the event are Filipino. This means that after the training, the great work on climate solutions already happening in the Philippines will accelerate.

Post-COP 21 this could not be more important.

The agreement reached in Paris was a monumental step in the effort to combat climate change with 195 nations agreeing upon an international plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. However, now we have to turn words into action . Success is 100 percent dependent on its provisions being strengthened and implemented over time. Here in the Philippines, that means transitioning the energy economy from coal to renewable energy resources and working to adapt to the realities of climate change .

The Philippines has long relied on dirty coal for energy. In fact, a 300-megawatt coal-fired power plan came online only a few weeks after the Philippines signed the Paris agreement —  and this is the first of dozens of coal-fired power plants currently planned. Instead of supporting an energy resource we know is damaging, we must encourage banks and investors to embrace the revolution in renewable energy and encourage the growth and development of the clean energy economy here in the Philippines. The islands have with abundant renewable energy resources such as sun, wind, and ocean tides  —  now we need to prioritize investing in the infrastructure that turns these existing power sources into reality.

Furthermore, a significant part of the agreement signed by the Philippines in Paris requires conserving, enhancing, and restoring forests country-wide. Over half of the country's commitment to reducing greenhouse gasses is based on plans to avoid deforestation and promote reforestation. Strong support for programs such as the Department of Environment and Natural Resources efforts to restore the country's mangroves, including those running from eastern Samar to Southern Leyte, can make a significant difference in both the reduction of greenhouse gases and mitigating  the potential risk and destruction from future storms.

The Philippines is one of the best-positioned countries to make a difference in the climate fight. My hope for the Manila training is that the trainees leave inspired to lead change in their own communities, including supporting and advocating for the crucial policies and changes needed as laid out by the Paris Agreement. If so, I am confident that the Philippines can play a key role in leading the world in halting the progressive destruction of climate change and ensure a sustainable future for us all.

Click here to learn more about how you can make a difference in fighting climate change by becoming a Climate Reality Leader.

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Philippines: Country Climate and Development Report 2022

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Stronger Climate Action Will Support Sustainable Recovery and Accelerate Poverty Reduction in the Philippines

MANILA, November 09, 2022 – Climate change is exacting a heavy toll on Filipinos’ lives, properties, and livelihoods, and left unaddressed, could hamper the country’s ambition of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2040. However, the Philippines has many of the tools and instruments required to reduce damages substantially, according to the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for the Philippines, released today.

With 50 percent of its 111 million population living in urban areas, and many cities in coastal areas, the Philippines is vulnerable to sea level rise. Changes due to the variability and intensity of rainfall in the country and increased temperatures will affect food security and the safety of the population.

Multiple indices rank the Philippines as one of the countries most affected by extreme climate events. The country has experienced highly destructive typhoons almost annually for the past 10 years. Annual losses from typhoons have been estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP.

Climate action in the Philippines must address both extreme and slow-onset events. Adaptation and mitigation actions, some of which are already underway in the country, would reduce vulnerability and future losses if fully implemented.

“Climate impacts threaten to significantly lower the country’s GDP and the well-being of Filipinos by 2040. However, policy actions and investments – principally to protect valuable infrastructure from typhoons and to make agriculture more resilient through climate-smart measures -- could reduce these negative climate impacts by two-thirds,” said World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, Manuela V. Ferro.

The private sector has a crucial role to play in accelerating the adoption of green technologies and ramping up climate finance by working with local financial institutions and regulators.

“ The investments needed to undertake these actions are substantial, but not out of reach, ” said IFC Acting Vice President for Asia and the Pacific, John Gandolfo . “ The business leaders and bankers who embrace climate as a business opportunity and offer these low-carbon technologies, goods and services will be the front runners of our future. ”

The report also undertakes an in-depth analysis of challenges and opportunities for climate-related actions in agriculture, water, energy, and transport. Among the recommendations are:

• Avoiding new construction in flood-prone areas.
• Improving water storage to reduce the risk of damaging floods and droughts. This will also increase water availability.
• Extending irrigation in rainfed areas and promoting climate-smart agriculture practices such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD).
• Making social protection programs adaptive and scalable to respond to climate shocks.
• Removing obstacles that private actors face in scaling investments in renewable energy.
• Ensuring new buildings are energy efficient and climate resilient.

Many climate actions will make the Philippines more resilient while also contributing to mitigating climate change.

“The Philippines would benefit from an energy transition towards more renewable energy. Accelerated decarbonization would reduce electricity costs by about 20 percent below current levels which is good for the country’s competitiveness and would also dramatically reduce air pollution,” said Ferro.

Even with vigorous adaptation efforts, climate change will affect many people. Some climate actions may also have adverse effects on particular groups, such as workers displaced by the move away from high-emission activities. The report recommends that the existing social protection system in the country be strengthened and scaled up to provide support to affected sectors and groups.

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports : The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

• 10 Things You Should Know About the World Bank Group’s First Batch of Country Climate and Development Reports
• CCDR Video link

PRESS RELEASE NO: 2023/025/EAP

In Washington: Kym Smithies [email protected]

In Manila: David Llorito [email protected]

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Climate change and the common Filipino

It’s hard to think about climate change in this time of soaring unemployment, shuttered businesses, and worsened poverty. But we all have to concern ourselves with climate now, because it is no longer just some vague realm of scientists and world leaders. It has become an economic problem, one that’s already hurting all of us, especially the poor, in profound ways.

Various analyses show that climate change is widening the wealth gap, particularly making poor countries poorer. One 2019 study from Stanford University found that from 1961 to 2010, the per-person wealth in the world’s poorest countries decreased by as much as 30 percent due to global warming.

In a country like the Philippines, it’s easy to see how the dramatic change in climate has pushed individuals and communities toward economic distress. More severe and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons, floods, and droughts) wreak havoc on homes, livelihoods, and local economies. With the increasing unpredictability of these events, poorer, less adaptable communities become more exposed and less resilient.

Not only does climate change inflict costly damage and destroy livelihoods, it also threatens our food security. Our agriculture sector takes a hit with every flood and drought, while our aquatic food sources suffer from the warming and acidification of marine habitats. In addition, vector-borne diseases such as dengue find more conducive environments in warmer tropical climates like ours.

All these have domino effects on the day-to-day life of the average Filipino, including food access, health and medical care, productivity, childcare and education, and more.

It is high time to think of climate change as an economic issue, and for Filipinos to include this issue in political (not partisan) decision-making.

How is climate response a political decision? For so long, the narrative on climate change focused on the responsibility of the individual: Each person must choose eco-friendly products, conserve energy, plant trees, and so on. It is clear now that individual action can only go so far; without concrete policy from governments and political will to effect meaningful solutions, our individual actions can only scratch the surface of the issue.

Fr. Jett Villarin, one of the country’s foremost climate scientists and who has worked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emphasized this in a briefing last week: “Climate action cannot just be individual. It has to be organized, it has to be collective… We need good policies, we need good governance.”

In terms of climate, good governance involves national and local government leaders who listen to scientists in crafting climate laws and regulations—and actually enact them.

So far, environmental laws in the country have been feebly implemented. For example, the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act has barely put a stop to open dumping and open burning of waste, and the Revised Forestry Code has not deterred illegal lumber-cutters even in protected forests.

Further, good climate governance entails not only the mitigation of global warming factors but also adaptation strategies for citizens already living in a warmer world. As we are now experiencing the effects of climate change, how can we adapt? Adaptation strategies include disaster risk management, water utility management, protection of ecosystems, and support for sustainable agriculture.

Our local and national government leaders have to hear our strong public demand for effectual climate governance. Besides participating in visible advocacy, one of the ways to express our demand is through our vote. Already, we are seeing who among our politicians have included climate action in their priorities, who have failed their climate promises, and who have shown no regard at all for the climate crisis.

We, the common Filipino, must own the issue of climate change. It is not just scientists and academics who perceive its effects. It is us who are burdened economically, immensely, by the shortage of climate action.

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PHILIPPINES: While Battling the Pandemic, Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Needed to aid Recovery

MANILA, December 8, 2020 — The multiple shocks that hit the Philippines – the COVID-19 health crisis, economic activities across the country frozen by quarantine measures, devastating typhoons in November, and the global recession – will likely shrink the economy by 8.1 percent in 2020, temporarily reversing gains made in poverty reduction in recent years. Sustained improvements in managing the pandemic and a possible rebound in the global economy, however, can help the country recover in 2021 and 2022.

These are among the key findings of the Philippines Economic Update (PEU) released today by the World Bank.

The current economic forecast is a revision from the -6.9 percent World Bank forecast in October, resulting from the deep contraction in the third quarter and the extensive damage and losses suffered by the country from the typhoons and floods in November.   

“The series of natural disasters that hit the country while we are battling the pandemic highlights the importance of mainstreaming disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation into policy and planning ,” said Ndiame Diop, World Bank Country Director for Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines . “While the Philippines is financially resilient, stronger coordination, execution and implementation will help further improve social and physical resilience to frequent shocks.”

Typhoons Rolly (international name Goni), Siony (Atsani), and Ulysses (Vamco) that hit the country in November in just a span of two weeks have brought devastation to a large swath of Luzon, further darkening this year’s growth outlook.

Prior to these disaster events, the economy had already posted a 10 percent contraction in the first three quarters, the worst since the 1985 debt crisis, due to a plunge in private domestic demand, deep contraction in investment activities, and weak exports. Private consumption, which accounts for two-thirds of the Philippine economy has declined at a record pace because of high unemployment and falling incomes.

The economic update says that the pandemic and natural disasters threaten to reverse the trend of a steady decline in poverty in recent years.

The results of a COVID-19 impact monitoring survey conducted in August 2020, show about 40 percent of households reporting a fall in income. Entrepreneurial income reportedly declined particularly among households engaged in non-farm business.

Remittances from abroad, a lifeline for many Filipino families, were reported to have fallen for two in five households that receive remittances, according to the survey. As a result, poverty is estimated to increase from 20.5 percent in 2019 to 22.6 percent in 2020 (measured against the World Bank lower middle-income poverty line of US$3.2/day).

The PEU, expects the Philippines to recover in the next two years, assuming continuing improvements in bringing down virus transmission. Policy makers are gradually allowing more industries to resume operations, thus reviving jobs and incomes, and boosting private consumption. This will help the economy bounce to a 5.9 percent growth in 2021 and 6.0 percent in 2022.

“While addressing the pandemic, the country needs to sustain focus on the structural reform agenda,” said Rong Qian, World Bank Senior Economist . “Speeding up reforms that improve the business environment, foster competition, and strengthen resilience against natural disasters will support the economic recovery and boost productivity growth in the long term.”

The PEU’s current forecasts hinge on China’s early recovery, alongside the expected rebound in the global economy in 2021, which will allow for export growth to recover, and larger remittance inflows to stimulate domestic demand.

The government is expected to ramp up its infrastructure spending starting in the fourth quarter of 2020, creating jobs in the construction sector. Pre-election activities in the run-up to the national election in 2022 will give an additional boost to demand as early as in the second half of 2021.

The PEU summarizes key economic and social developments, important policy changes, and the evolution of external conditions affecting the Philippines over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank analyses, situating them in the context of the country’s long-term development trends and assessing their implications for the country’s medium-term economic outlook.

The World Bank has been a partner of the Philippines for 75 years, providing, among other forms of support, economic analyses and updates. Since 1945, World Bank Group has mobilized funding, global knowledge, and partnerships to support the Philippines’ efforts to alleviate poverty, upgrade infrastructure, improve health, nutrition, and education, strengthen resilience against climate change and natural disasters, promote peace, and enhance global competitiveness.

World Bank Group Response to COVID-19

The World Bank Group, one of the largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries, is taking broad, fast action to help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response. It is supporting public health interventions, working to ensure the flow of critical supplies and equipment, and helping the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs.

The World Bank Group is making available up to $160 billion over a 15-month period ending June 2021 to help more than 100 countries protect the poor and vulnerable, support businesses, and bolster economic recovery. This includes $50 billion of new IDA resources through grants and highly concessional loans and $12 billion for developing countries to finance the purchase and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.

• (Full Report) Philippines Economic Update December 2020: Building a Resilient Recovery
• Report Launch Forum Replay Dec 9, 2020, 10am

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Climate landscape analysis for children in the philippines, how climate, environment and energy issues affect filipino children.

The Philippines ranks among the top five countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts. This report provides the essential baseline information on the climate, environmental and energy issues affecting children in the country and includes recommendations—including the involvement of youth as champions against climate change.

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[OPINION] Global warming, climate change, and implications for the Philippines

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This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.

The following is the 40th in a series of excerpts from Kelvin Rodolfo’s ongoing book project “Tilting at the Monster of Morong: Forays Against the  Bataan Nuclear Power Plant  and Global Nuclear Energy. “

Early history

The fossil fuel industry, more than a century and a half older than the nuclear industry and its self-serving propaganda, has had much more time to praise itself and defend its terrible environmental record. No other group has done more to spread confusion about CO 2 -induced global warming.   

Let’s begin with the long and respectable history of how scientists came to recognize how CO 2 is causing climate change.  

Science transcends nationality; appropriately in this case because global warming threatens everyone. 

Arrhenius was not alarmed, and Callendar first saw only benefits: Co 2 encourages plant growth, extends the cultivation zone poleward, and “…the return of the deadly glaciers should be delayed indefinitely.” He ended his report, almost offhandedly: ”…the reserves of fuel…would be sufficient to give at least 10 times as much carbon dioxide as there is in the air at present.” 

Callendar’s research until 1961 was largely why the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii was established in 1958 to measure atmospheric CO 2 . 

Keeling and his curve

As a post-doctoral chemist at Cal Tech in California, Charles David Keeling was increasingly drawn to the environment and geology. He developed precise instrumentation to measure atmospheric CO 2 , and documented how CO 2 in forest air falls during the day while trees and plants photosynthesize, and rises back up while they rest at night.  

Since 1958 , Keeling’s lab has continuously monitored atmospheric CO 2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, far from the continents, unvegetated, and more than four kilometers or two miles above sea level, far above any localized CO 2 source.    

Like the daily fall and rise in forest-air CO 2 , Earth’s global atmosphere follows yearly CO 2 cycles. During the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer, photosynthesis reduces the CO 2 , which rises back up during the reduced sunlight of autumn and winter. Hence, the saw-toothed Keeling Curve. 

But each annual cycle increases the average. From 1958 to 2018, CO 2 contents increased 1.56 ppmv annually, but increased by about 2.33 in 2022.

To really understand the problem, view it and our place in geologic history and geologic time.

Geologic time

Imagine a movie of Earth’s history compressed into 24 hours as a digital video disc movie: 

The first quarter of the movie is all geology, no biology: volcanism;; continents forming; plate tectonics beginning; atmosphere and oceans accumulating. Only after six hours do Archaea , the first living beings appear around the vents of submarine volcanoes. 

Little change happens during the next 14 hours; very slowly-evolving procaryotes maintain a comfortable global temperature by taking CO 2 out of the ocean and atmosphere to make their tissues and their calcium-carbonate shells that accumulate as limestones.

More than 20 hours into the movie shellfish appear; the evolutionary explosion of complex forms has begun. Some biological tissues are buried in ocean sediments and become oil and gas.

After another hour the first land plants start extracting CO 2 from the air to make their tissues, some of which is buried as coal and methane. Feeding on the lush vegetation and each other, amphibians and reptiles evolve and flourish.

More than 23 and a half hours into the film the Chixulub asteroid kills most global life, including the dinosaurs. But life and the global environment recover.

The photosynthesis-respiration cycle

Over the eons, global life learned to recycle the materials every living thing needs. Plants and oceanic life photosynthesize : use sunlight to combine carbon dioxide, water, and a few other elements into carbohydrates like sugars, fats and proteins. Carbohydrate simply means carbon “hydrated,” combined with water. 

Respiration reverses the process: fungae and animals including us extract chemical energy in carbohydrates by burning them with oxygen, and respiring  – “breathing out” – water and carbon dioxide as waste, completing the cycle.

Small amounts of  organic stuffs, taken out of the photosynthesis-respiration cycle by being buried in soils and sediments, mature over millions of years into oil, methane, and coal.

Those fuels can’t remain locked in the rocks forever. Over geologic time they can be buried deeper than 4.6 kilometers, where Earth’s internal heat destroys them; or slow tectonic movements eventually raise the rocks into mountains, and erosion releases them to decompose.  

But over the last several hundred million years, a rough balance between storage and destruction left about two trillion barrels of petroleum (“rock oil”) and similar amounts of coal and methane taken out of the atmosphere and ocean and stored in the rocks. Estimates of how fast oil accumulates range from 4,600 to 12,000, averaging about 8,000 barrels a year – so slowly compared to how fast it is used that it must be considered a non-renewable resource.

The Industrial Revolution began undoing all those hundreds of millions of years of Life’s work by burning coal. Then, after the first successful oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859, the burning of oil accelerated rapidly. Some time in the next decade, humanity will have used up the first of the two trillion barrels stored in the Earth. During 2021 alone, even though COVID slowed its use, it was about 35.5 billion barrels. 

In that one year, humanity took out of the ground, burned, and returned to the atmosphere what Earth’s life had slowly taken out of it and stored as oil in the rocks for half a million years. We also burned 7.4 billion tons of coal and 4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. How can the climate not be greatly disturbed?

Some Philippine implications

The average American is the worst climate change offender, using almost two barrels of oil and more than 12 megawatt-hours of electricity  a year. Average Filipinos, far more frugal, use only a third as much oil and a tenth as much electricity. Our people join the Marshallese (Foray 34) as among the most blameless in causing climate change, but among the worst affected by sea-level rise.

Increasingly, the ocean surface waters are absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide and being acidified, seriously affecting Philippine coral reefs, a major source of fish. The fastest-growing third of the Philippine population living on the coastal plains worsen storm and tidal flooding from the rising seas by using so much well water that their plains are subsiding 10 or more times faster than sea level is rising.

The Pacific climate is shifting from more La Niñas to more El Niños, when fewer West Pacific typhoons form, but closer to the equator, so more are crossing the Philippines. All typhoons are getting fewer, but the stronger ones are becoming more frequent.  Rainfall within 100 kilometers of typhoons is increasing because global warming is weakening the winds that carry them along, slowing them down so they have more time to soak up water vapor along their oceanic paths, and to deliver rain when they reach land.

Our next Foray is the first of two that explore renewable energy sources for the Philippines as the climate crisis worsens. – Rappler.com

Born in Manila and educated at UP Diliman and the University of Southern California, Dr. Kelvin Rodolfo taught geology and environmental science at the University of Illinois at Chicago since 1966. He specialized in Philippine natural hazards since the 1980s.

Keep posted on Rappler for the next installment of Rodolfo’s series.

Previous pieces from  Tilting at the Monster of Morong :

• [OPINION] Tilting at the Monster of Morong
• [OPINION] Mount Natib and her sisters
• [OPINION] Sear, kill, obliterate: On pyroclastic flows and surges
• [OPINION] Beneath the waters of Subic Bay an old pyroclastic-flow deposit, and many faults
• [OPINION] Propaganda about faulting, earthquakes, and the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant
• [OPINION] Discovering the Lubao Fault
• [OPINION] The Lubao Fault at BNPP, and the volcanic threats there
• [OPINION] How Natib volcano and her 2 sisters came to be
• [OPINION] More BNPP threats: A Manila Trench megathrust earthquake and its tsunamis
• [OPINION] Shoddy, shoddy, shoddy: How they built the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant
• [OPINION] Where, oh where, would BNPP’s fuel come from?
• [OPINION] ‘Megatons to Megawatts’: Prices and true costs of nuclear energy
• [OPINION] Uranium enrichment for energy leads to enrichment for weapons
• [OPINION] Introducing the nuclear fuel cycle
• [OPINION] On uranium mining and milling
• [OPINION] Enriching and fabricating BNPP’s uranium fuel
• [OPINION] Decommissioning BNPP, and storing the nuclear dragon’s radioactive manure
• [OPINION] So how much greenhouse gas does nuclear power really generate?
• [OPINION] Getting up close and personal with the atom, and its nucleus that powers NPPs
• [OPINION] The nucleus and isotopes: Why BNPP needs Uranium 235, Not Uranium 238
• [OPINION] What you should know about radioactivity
• [OPINION] Uranium mine waste and the weird idea of half-life
• [OPINION] How nuclear power plants work: Hot monster piss from Morong
• [OPINION] What if there was a spent-fuel pool accident at the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant?
• [OPINION] Nuclear weaponry, its radiation, and human health
• [OPINION] What Chernobyl could have taught us, but hasn’t been allowed to
• [OPINION] Activating BNPP would give cancer to workers and adults living nearby
• [OPINION] Activate BNPP? You could increase childhood cancers in Bataan and beyond
• [OPINION] The Hanford Site: Where nuclear pollution began and still reigns
• [OPINION] Enewetak, Paradise Lost: Enewetak and its people
• [OPINION] The Cold War’s nuclear weapons tests, and the damage and waste they left behind
• [OPINION] Nuclear weapons tests and the dangers of the Runit Dome
• [OPINION] The fates of Enewetak Atoll and its people after the nuclear tests
• [OPINION] The long-term future of nuclear wastes
• [OPINION] Paying respect to our own star
• [OPINION] The paradox of the faint young sun, the origin of life, and the modern cell
• [OPINION] Sunlight and earth-glow
• How the ‘greenhouse effect’ works

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4th UK-PH Climate Change & Environment Dialogue joint statement

British Embassy Manila & the Department of Environment and Natural Resources convened the 4th UK-Philippines Climate and Environment Dialogue on 25 March 2024.

Together with key government agencies, the UK and the Philippines agreed to deepen the collaboration across climate and biodiversity priorities. The conversation set the direction for the year ahead. The scaling of coordination platforms to share experience and technology, streamline priorities, and scale delivery featured strongly. In this regard, the UK will support the Energy Transition Council, Blue Carbon Action Plan, and National Plastics Action Plan in the coming year.

These will build on the successes of 2023, which saw UK support for the delivery of the Philippines National Adaptation plan and Philippines Emission Pathway Calculator.

Exploring ways to mobilise finance behind the Philippines National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and Nationally Determined Contributions Implementation Plan (NDCIP) was a core part of the conversation to ensure that UK support will help deliver implementation. The UK committed to deliver programmes and technical assistance to contribute to water security, urban resilience, ecosystems and biodiversity protection, and renewable energy and energy efficiency.

The Dialogue further highlighted a strong track record of financial innovation, with the UK-funded launch of the Animal Town application in 2024, demonstrating an innovative new way to get the public to participate in the conservation of Philippine wildlife and biodiversity.

It went on to showcase collective leadership and ambition on oceans and the blue economy. The representatives reached an agreement on a new governance framework to oversee future marine and coastal work on nature and climate under an upcoming Blue Planet Fund Country Plan.

Localisation has played a key role in the partnership to date, with over twenty community-led initiatives funded by the UK. This year will see four challenge funds open to new community project proposals across the country to strengthen local capacity across adaptation and biodiversity.

British Ambassador to the Philippines Laure Beaufils said:

I’m proud that the UK and the Philippines are such strong partners on climate and biodiversity. Over the last year we have delivered great things together – supporting people across the country to adapt to the unavoidable consequences of climate change, driving an uptick in renewable energy, investing in biodiversity through nature-based solutions including the conservation of mangroves and corals, and protecting wildlife ranging from Philippine pangolins to crocodiles. I’m absolutely delighted that, in this fourth Dialogue, we committed to do even more together.

On top of existing partnerships, we will focus on growing the Blue Economy through the Blue Planet Fund, formulating a country specific plan to support marine protected areas and other effective conservation measures, reduce marine pollution, and manage sustainable fisheries. Together, I have no doubt we will continue to make a real life difference to people across the country

DENR Secretary Maria Antonia Yulo-Loyzaga, who is also the President’s Chair Designate of the Climate Change Commission said:

The Philippines is committed to a sustainable future and this dialogue is a pivotal step in achieving that goal. We will explore avenues for mobilizing finance and investments into climate, energy, and environment interventions outlined in the Philippines NAP and NDC Implementation Plan. The Philippines’ efforts toward resilience and sustainable development have received strong financial, technical, and policy-related support from the UK government. We are fully committed to carrying out the UK-PH strategic cooperation. By working together with the UK, we can leverage priority areas of collaboration to create a comprehensive and effective approach to environment and climate action.

The dialogue concluded with both countries establishing a clear engagement approach on critical issues such as loss and damage, disaster risk financing, and the blue economy. The UK reinforced its commitment to advancing its work in these areas moving forward and delivering tangible progress in the years ahead.

Senior officials from the DENR, Climate Change Commission, Department of Agriculture – Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Department of Finance, Department of Energy, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, National Economic and Development Authority,  the Public-Private Partnership Center, and UK Government representatives from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) were present during the dialogue.

Notes to Editors

About  Blue Planet Fund

• The Blue Planet Fund is the UK’s £500 million programme supporting developing countries to protect the marine environment and reduce poverty. This is jointly managed by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs.

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The Boss Is Calling Late. Should the Law Let You Ignore It?

A San Francisco lawmaker wants California to give workers the right to brush off business calls after hours.

By Heather Knight

Reporting from San Francisco during working hours.

Few places have done more than the Bay Area — the center of the smartphone industry — to ensure that bosses can call, text or Slack their workers all the time, nights and weekends included.

But a San Francisco lawmaker wants to help curb the constant ringing and pinging that his region helped create. New legislation from Assemblyman Matt Haney would make his state the first in the country to give employees the legal right to hit the ignore button on their phones when the boss calls after hours. Emails, texts and other work communication could also be put off until workers are back on the clock.

Mr. Haney, a Democrat, got the idea from Australia’s new “right to disconnect” law , to be implemented later this year. It will allow workers to reject “unreasonable” professional communication outside of their regular workday. The idea originated in France and has spread in various forms to countries including Canada, Italy, Belgium and the Philippines. New York City debated a similar proposal in 2018 , but didn’t adopt it.

Remote work, which the coronavirus pandemic helped to normalize for many workers , can make it more difficult to put a firm stop to the workday, Mr. Haney said.

“People now find themselves always on and never off,” he said. “There’s an availability creep that has reached into many people’s lives, and I think it’s not a positive thing for people’s happiness, for their well-being, or even for work productivity.”

California workers already enjoy more generous rights than those in many other parts of the country. The minimum wage is $16 an hour , compared to the federal minimum wage of $7.25. And Gov. Gavin Newsom last fall approved laws giving higher minimum wages to workers in two industries: $25 an hour by 2028 for all health care workers, and $20 an hour starting April 1 for fast-food workers.

California law also requires employers to provide overtime pay, paid family leave, paid sick leave, reimbursement for business expenses, and mandatory meal and rest breaks. It also has broad anti-discrimination and anti-harassment protections that go beyond similar laws in many other states.

Mr. Haney’s bill, which would probably go to a legislative committee for consideration this spring, would require public and private employers to establish a policy granting workers the right to ignore off-hour communication from their bosses except in the case of emergency, or for scheduling changes affecting the next 24 hours.

Employers and employees would have to establish a written agreement defining work hours. Under the proposal, if the boss breaks the deal three times, he or she could be reported to the state’s labor commissioner by employees and be subject to fines starting at $100.

Collective bargaining agreements would supersede the law, so teachers, nurses and other unionized workers would be covered by whatever their contracts say about off-hours communication.

“This is not intended to say people can’t work long hours or have an agreement for a contract where they’re on call, but it should be made clear,” Mr. Haney said. “The problem we have now is the gray area, where an employee is expected to respond all the time when on paper they work a 9-to-5 job.”

Rodney Fong, head of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, said he thinks employees are already enjoying a better work-life balance than they did before the pandemic. They can, for example, spend time with their children in the afternoon and return to the laptop later at night. Returning to a time when all work communication happened from 9 to 5, he said, is not really what employees want.

“There is a do-not-disturb feature on most phones,” Mr. Fong said. “Just because it rings doesn’t mean you have to pick it up.”

But Sandra Bardas, a pharmacist who lives in Menlo Park, a Silicon Valley town 30 miles south of San Francisco, said the right to turn off work would be a welcome change. Burnout in the health care industry is high, she said, and even bathroom breaks are hard to get.

“There’s always that lingering feeling of, ‘I have to be by my phone. What if they call me?’” she said. “This would be very important for our mental health.”

Michelle Avary, also of Menlo Park, works for a Swedish-owned trucking company and said it has been an eye-opener to see how Swedish people work. “When they are gone, I mean they are gone!” she said with a laugh.

But she said she thinks the California work culture is already doing a better job of prioritizing personal time, and the state has bigger problems.

“We have a budget deficit. We have a housing crisis. We have a fentanyl crisis. We’ve underspent on public transportation,” Ms. Avary said. “We need to focus a lot more on those.”

At least one group of employees is already benefiting from Mr. Haney’s proposed legislation. Since writing the bill, he said, he has stopped calling his staff after hours and on the weekends.

“Unless it’s an emergency,” he said. “I’ve become a lot more cognizant of that.”

Heather Knight is a reporter in San Francisco, leading The Times’s coverage of the Bay Area and Northern California. More about Heather Knight