futures research methodology 3.0

Futures Research Methodology CD Version 3.0

Jerome Glenn, Ted Gordon from Millennium Project

The Futures Research Methodology is the largest collection of futures tools and methods ever published. From simple tools to more complex methodologies, this resource features a wide-variety of foresight activities, many of which can be incorporated into classes at any level.

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Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0

May 27, 2009.

The CD-ROM contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages. Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format.

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Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 CD-ROM – 30 April 2009

Purchase options and add-ons.

• Print length 1300 pages
• Language English
• Publisher The Millennium Project
• Publication date 30 April 2009
• Dimensions 13.97 x 0.64 x 13.34 cm
• ISBN-10 0981894119
• ISBN-13 978-0981894119
• See all details

Product details

• Publisher ‏ : ‎ The Millennium Project; 3.0 edition (30 April 2009)
• Language ‏ : ‎ English
• CD-ROM ‏ : ‎ 1300 pages
• ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0981894119
• ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0981894119
• Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 13.97 x 0.64 x 13.34 cm

About the author

Theodore j. gordon.

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Evaluation and Organization of Futures Research METHODOLOGY—V3. 0

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This paper describes a futures method called the "Three Horizons" which enables different futures and strategic methods to be integrated as and when appropriate. The method is still in development. It differs significantly from the original version described in the management literature a decade ago. The approach has several strengths. It can relate drivers and trends-based futures analysis to emerging issues. It enables policy or strategy implications of futures to be identified. And it links futures work to processes of change. The paper connects this latter aspect to models of change developed within the 'social shaping' school of technology. Finally, it summarises a number of futures applications where this evolving technique has been used.

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If there is one activity that needs to stay up to date on change and innovation, it is futures research. I argue that futures research can be innovated first of all by exploring the scientific nature of futures research, and then by approaching the variety of methods used in futures research in a contingent way and, finally, by making futures researchers more aware of the organizational context of the use of their work.

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Futures Research Methodology: The Millennium Project: Version 3.0 CD-ROM – 30 April 2009

• ISBN-10 0981894119
• ISBN-13 978-0981894119
• Edition 3.0
• Publication date 30 April 2009
• Language English
• Print length 1300 pages
• See all details

Product details

• Language ‏ : ‎ English
• CD-ROM ‏ : ‎ 1300 pages
• ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0981894119
• ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0981894119

Customer reviews

Review this product.

• Sort reviews by Top reviews Most recent Top reviews

Top reviews from Singapore

Top reviews from other countries.

• Press Releases
• Amazon Science
• Protect and Build Your Brand
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The Millennium Project and beyond

ISSN : 1463-6689

Article publication date: 16 September 2013

Cordeiro, J.L. (2013), "The Millennium Project and beyond", Foresight , Vol. 15 No. 5. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-03-2013-0008

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Article Type: Guest editorial From: foresight, Volume 15, Issue 5

The Millennium Project was founded in 1996 after a three-year feasibility study with the United Nations University, Smithsonian Institution, Futures Group International, and the American Council for the United Nations University (UNU). It is now an independent non-profit global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. The Millennium Project currently manages a coherent and cumulative process that collects and assesses judgments from over 4,000 experts from close to 100 countries that have contributed with their views to The Millennium Project since its inception.

The State of the Future (SOF) (Glenn et al. , 2012) has been analyzing the 15 Global Challenges, year after year, besides other special studies and the State of the Future Index (SOFI), which monitors the variables that are getting better and the ones that are getting worse. The SOF print edition is just an executive summary with over 10,000 additional pages of accumulated research over the years.

The Futures Research Methodology (FRM) (Glenn and Gordon, 2012) is now on its third edition and it includes 39 chapters with over 1,300 pages describing the most important methodologies on futures research. The FRM version 3.0 was sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation and it is the largest internationally peer-reviewed collection of methods to explore the future ever assembled in one source.

The Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS) (The Millennium Project, 2013) is a new collective intelligence system that integrates all of the information, groups, and software of The Millennium Project in a single location. The GFIS is novel way to participate with and have access to a general overview of major global issues that can be read and understood in just 15 minutes, including historical data and future forecasts.

The Millennium Project is not a one-time study of the future, but provides an on-going capacity as a geographically and institutionally dispersed think tank. It was selected among the Best 7 Foresight Organizations by US Office of Energy, and it was a 2012 Computerworld laureate for its innovations in collective intelligence systems. Most annual State of the Future reports have been selected by the publication Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future, the international journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change has dedicated several entire issues to the annual State of the Future ., and foresight reviewed the 2012 State of the Future as “strategic planning for the planet.”

Heiko A. von der Gracht and Inga-Lena Darkow (Institute for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management [IFK], EBS Business School, Wiesbaden, Germany, and members of the German Node of The Millennium Project) analyzed “The future role of logistics for global wealth: Scenarios and discontinuities until 2025.” Von der Gracht and Darkow researched global logistics scenarios with focus on the future contribution the logistics industry can make to the triple bottom line – people, planet and profit. Over 200 experts were asked to share their visions via a real-time Delphi (RTD) study. The results were further examined in futures workshops according to World Café methodology to developed 20 key Delphi projections for global logistics in 2025.

Aharon Hauptman and Yair Sharan (Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting [ICTAF],Tel-Aviv University, Israel, and members of the Israeli Node of The Millennium Project) analyzed “Foresight of evolving security threats posed by emerging technologies.” Hauptman and Sharan consider the overlooked “dark side” of new technologies, and their potential abuse by terrorists or organized crime. The EU-funded project FESTOS assesses security issues following a horizon scanning and a Delphi expert survey to rank the “abuse potential” and “threat intensity” of 33 emerging technologies. “Weak signals,” “wild cards” and a variant of the “futures wheel” method were used to construct four “scenario sketches” considering potential future threats.

William E. Halal (George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, Bangkok University, Thailand, and participant of the Cyber Node of The Millennium Project) wrote “Through the megacrisis: making the passage to global maturity.” Halal used an online survey to assess attitudes toward four scenarios defining the range of possible outcomes of the “global megacrisis,” with an improved Delphi method to estimate when emerging technologies are likely to enter mainstream use. An evolutionary perspective and “collective intelligence” methods helped to understand how the world could make the passage through today’s “global megacrisis” to a more sophisticated level of development by about 2020.

Tony Diggle (independent consultant, London, England, and member of the UK Node of The Millennium Project) worked on “Water: how collective intelligence initiatives can address this global challenge.” Diggle analyzes online collective intelligence systems that make it easier to set practical goals and monitor progress to send, receive and act on the latest research and new information. Recent developments by the World Water Assessment Panel (WWAP) of UNESCO, the International Water Association (IWA), and the IWA WaterWiki are considered, and then potential future developments are examined from a collective intelligence viewpoint dealing with water challenges.

Sven Hirsch, Paul Burggraf and Cornelia Daheim (Zpunkt the foresight company, Köln, Germany, and members of the German Node of The Millennium Project) consider “Scenario planning with integrated quantification – managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building.” Hirsch, Burggraf and Daheim present a practical methodology for establishing quantitative scenarios in a participative process within a business environment. Their method follows the classical scenario design process of key factor analysis, projection design, interaction analysis, and scenario selection. Each step helps to consolidate the qualitative and quantitative description of the strategic scenarios.

Pavel Nováek (Palacky University, Olomouc, Czech Republic, Czech Association of the Club of Rome, Prague, Czech Republic, and member of the Central European Node of The Millennium Project) considered “Thinking oriented towards the future: key to prosperity and sustainable development?” Nováek proposes a new methodology called the Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI) using 23 indicators. The FOTI is an approach close to the State of the Future Index (SOFI) developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the Millennium Project, but the FOTI should focus more on identifying how people are able to take into account future challenges and behave according to them, and less on the “state of the future” (measuring whether the indicators will improve or deteriorate).

Futurists often explain that the purpose of thinking about the future is not to predict what will happen, but rather to visualize possibilities and consider plausible alternatives. These papers are an important starting point to consider some of those possibilities and alternatives. Although we cannot know or determine the future, our aim with this Special Issue is to promote dialogue, facilitate creative thinking, and provide an additional platform for voices from The Millennium Project. We hope this special issue “The Millennium Project and Beyond” contributes to this important dialogue to create better futures for humanity.

Acknowledgements

The Guest Editor wants to thank personally three senior staff of The Millennium Project: Executive Director Jerome C. Glenn for his leadership, Senior Research Fellow Theodore J. Gordon for his wisdom, and Research Director Elizabeth Florescu for her diligence.

José Luis Cordeiro Director, Millennium Project, Venezuela Node, Caracas, Venezuela

Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J. (2012), Futures Research Methodologies, Version 3.0 , The Millennium Project, Washington, DC, available at: http://http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html Glenn, J.C., Gordon, T.J. and Florescu, E. (2012), 2012 State of the Future , The Millennium Project, Washington, DC, available at: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/2012SOF.html The Millennium Project (2013), Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS) , The Millennium Project, Washington, DC, available at: https://themp.org

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Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0

By jerome c. glenn and theodore j. gordon.

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Futures Research Methodology 3.0

Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource.

Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method’s evolution.

FRM 3.0 contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages. Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format.

http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3...

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15 global challenges, artificial general intelligence, work/tech 2050: scenarios and actions, state of the future, futures research methodology 3.0, about the millennium project.

The Millennium Project is a global participatory think tank established in 1996 under the American Council for the United Nations University that became independent in 2009 and has grown to 72 Nodes around the world .

It connects futurists around the world and collaborates to improve global foresight .

Improve humanity’s prospects for building a better future.

Improve thinking about the future and make that thinking available through a variety of media for feedback to accumulate wisdom about the future for better decisions today.

A global foresight network of Nodes, information, and software, building a global collective intelligence system recognized for its ability to improve prospects for humanity. A think tank on behalf of humanity, not on behalf of a government, or an issue, or an ideology, but on behalf of building a better future for all of us.

About The Millennium Project Nodes

A Millennium Project Node is a self-organizing group of institutions and individuals recognized by the Project that will facilitate the Project’s research or conduct autonomous research in support of the Project. In this capacity, each Node will participate in the identification of incipient world issues and opportunities, study their prospect and their potential resolution, as well as methods for accomplishing such research.

Each Millennium Project Node:

• Assumes lead responsibility for a geographic area or subject
• Has access to the entire Millennium Project (staff, information system, international panels, and the other Nodes) in carrying out its specialized responsibility
• Selects its own Chair who is responsible for the work of the Node and communications with the Project’s coordinating office

See 14 ways you can get involved!

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Current Activities

• International assessment of future governance models for the transition from Artificial Narrow to  Artificial General Intelligence .
• Working on the next State of the Future report, current version:   State of the Future 19.1  (print and download)
• Working with the Executive Office of the UN Secretary-General, The Millennium Project conducted a Real-Time Delphi to assess the  five foresight elements   of the UNSG’s report Our Common Agenda . The RTDelphi panel of 189 professionals from 54 countries provided 1,463 answers of which 983 were explanations and comments. About half the panel had 20 or more years of professional foresight or related experience. Download the report (pdf)
• 2030  State of the Future Index re-assessed the 29 global variables and generated the new World Report Card on the future.
• Up-dating  FUTURES  dictionary/encyclopedia of futurist terms and methods; current version
• Futures Dictionary/Encyclopedia  ( English  and  Spanish )
• Global Scanning for the 15 Global Challenges (while the Global Futures Intelligence System GFIS is being re-positioned in Amazon, new scanning items can be added here.
• Future Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions.  The report covers the three-year study on the future dynamics of work and technology with three detailed global scenarios, results of 30 national workshops in 29 countries, and five Real-time Delphi’s that rated 93 actions distilled from those suggested to address issues raised in the three scenarios by the national workshops. Each of the 93 actions have ratings and comments from several hundred futurists and related experts. This is probably the broadest international assessment of long-range actions to address the future of work thus far.  Workshops Future Work/Technology 2050  and 7.5 minute  video   overview
• Short Videos  of each of the 15 Global Challenges are now available and other  MP Videos .
• Philosophy, History, and STS (Science, Technology, Society) scholars’ views on Futures Research and Foresight conference (Grappling with the Futures) at Harvard and Boston Universities –  abstracts available .

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