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The labour force in a changing climate: Research and policy needs

Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliations Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Venice, Italy, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, United Kingdom

Affiliation Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, United Kingdom

• Shouro Dasgupta, 
• Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson

Published: January 19, 2023

• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000131
• Reader Comments

Citation: Dasgupta S, Robinson EJZ (2023) The labour force in a changing climate: Research and policy needs. PLOS Clim 2(1): e0000131. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000131

Editor: Jamie Males, PLOS Climate, UNITED KINGDOM

Copyright: © 2023 Dasgupta, Robinson. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Funding: 1. SD and EJZR received support from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programmes under grant agreement 101057554 (IDAlert). 2. EJZR received support from Innovate UK project 10056533. 3. SD and EJZR acknowledge support from COST Action PROCLIAS (PROcess-based models for CLimate Impact Attribution across Sectors), funded by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). 4. SD and EJZR are co-authors of the Global Lancet Countdown and the Lancet Countdown in Europe. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: Shouro Dasgupta is a member of the PLOS Climate editorial board.

Heat stress and the labour force preamble

Labour is one of the sectors most affected by heat stress. Labour supply (number working hours) and labour productivity (output during these hours) are all affected by warming. A growing body of literature finds that heat affects labour in multiple ways, with predominantly negative impacts on economic growth and workers’ health, that are heterogeneous across regions and sectors. However, there are significant gaps in the literature, making it hard to inform effective policy, including labour protection regulations. With improved understanding of the complex links between labour, health, and output, policies can be better designed to protect workers, especially vulnerable groups of workers, such as outdoor workers, and enhance economic output and economic growth [ 1 , 2 ].

Warming is already having a negative effect on labour in most parts of the world, particularly in tropical regions, and will continue to do so. Warming affects the number of hours worked (labour supply) [ 1 – 5 ], output during these working hours (labour productivity) [ 6 ], and labour capacity [ 7 – 9 ]. This in turn has implications for economic output, and general and occupational health [ 10 , 11 ], absenteeism [ 12 ], and labour rights. There is evidence that outdoor and indoor manual/manufacturing workers are particularly affected by heat stress, with the impacts being highest on outdoor workers (agriculture and construction [ 1 , 2 , 7 , 8 , 13 ]. At present there is little evidence of the effects on workers in the services sector. As well as being detrimental to the individual, these impacts have implications for firm profitability and economic growth at the country-level.

Those areas where labour is at highest risk under future warming include parts of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and South East Asia. In contrast, in cooler countries, such as those in northern Europe, there are currently benefits from warming, though these benefits may be short-lived as the planet warms further [ 1 , 3 , 14 ]). Warming is therefore likely to exacerbate inequalities, especially among more vulnerable working groups such as women and low-income workers in high-exposure sectors such as agriculture and construction.

Gaps in knowledge and understanding

A basic yet fundamental issue in this literature is the absence of agreed definitions. The terms labour productivity, work productivity, work capacity, worker performance, and worker productivity are often used interchangeably [ 1 ]. As a result findings have been biased, and incorporating these findings into economic models such as Computable General Equilibrium CGE (CGE) and Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) has proved challenging.

Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) has frequently been used as a proxy for heat stress. However, there are well documented limitations of this indicator. For example, it often underestimates the thermal stress conditions and assumes that workers are wearing light clothing. In addition, most of the literature uses WBGT based on reanalysed data or climate model projections. Yet accurate measurements of WBGT require heat monitoring devices. As such, there have been suggestions in the literature that only WBGT measurements using monitoring devises be used. Given these concerns, findings using WBGT should be treated with caution [ 15 ].

Another practical reality is that many of the impacts of heat, both short and long-term, may not be fully understood by workers and employers; there may be asymmetric information on the health impacts between workers and employers; and worker and employer incentives may not align [ 14 ]. Specific under-studied aspects include absenteeism due to heat-induced ill health, and chronic conditions such as kidney diseases that are increasingly being found in outdoor workers.

One reason for these knowledge gaps is the lack of comprehensive empirical analyses on labour outcomes, especially labour productivity. A large part of the literature relies on numerical exercises that combine regional/downscaled climate models with one-size-fits-all response-functions. These response-functions are often based weak empirical analysis and small sample sizes from specific locations and/or a single country, to compute the impacts of future climate change on the labour force (usually labour capacity) at the global-level. The use of these location-specific response functions based on limited number of observations has often resulted in biases and errors that are not always sufficiently clarified when the outcomes of economic models and analyses are used for policy-related work.

Most of the literature has treated heat-labour impacts as a biophysical relationship, disregarding the socioeconomic dimensions. This has, for example, resulted in lack of nuanced analyses that take into account that some workers are more vulnerable than others. It has also led to there being little incorporation of adaptation, which has likely resulted in the effects of heat stress being overestimated, and the effectiveness of policies being mis-estimated. Contextualising the role of adaptation has the potential to improve assessment of economic consequences of future climate change impacts on labour.

Spatial coverage of the evidence on heat stress on labour is patchy. For example, very few if any studies focus on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region. There is a lack of deep-dive case studies. These are important for understanding country-specific links between heat and labour, and therefore for informing policy. These studies will also improve our understanding of how workers in different occupational settings are affected differently by heat.

Priorities for future policy-relevant research

There is considerable scope for focused research that can contribute to, for example, assessing the impact of existing heat regulations in the workforce; reducing heat-stress induced work-related injuries and deaths; improved labour protection policies; strengthening of labour unions; providing the evidence base for regulations concerning limiting hours worked in intense heat; and identifying vulnerable groups.

Research is more likely to contribute to improved labour outcomes through generating the evidence required to improve the design of effective regulations to protect worker rights if it is undertaken in collaboration with labour unions (e.g. how trade unions organise around the issue of climate change), occupational safety and health institutions, and regulators. An example of such a collaborative initiative is the ILO Vision Zero Fund . Such collaborations can enable the better design of specific plans for the protection of the working population from heat events, including implementing maximum temperature thresholds at which work can take place.

A clear priority is to ensure there is sufficient data, geographical coverage, and analysis for research to guide policy makers in a sufficiently granular and therefore useful way. Estimating robust exposure-response functions using observed data (for example, sourced from labour force surveys), especially on labour productivity, will reduce uncertainty and inaccuracies in existing findings. Improved response-functions are also required to compute policy relevant projections using updated CMIP6 scenarios, which can help to identify hotspots where future heat stress will have the highest effects on labour and vulnerable working populations.

The design of locally-relevant labour protection policies requires local scale data and an understanding of local contexts. Deep-dive case studies focusing on individual countries can provide an improved understanding of the interaction between socioeconomic, sociodemographic, and climatic stressors, and therefore inform better local policies.

More research is needed for the design of early warning systems that, combined with heat health action plans, can protect workers from extreme heat. Research into sector-specific temperature thresholds and meteorological forecasts can contribute to these early warning systems being more effective [ 14 ]. More broadly, such research could also be the basis for developing sector specific plans for worker protection from extreme heat events, including implementing maximum temperature thresholds at which work should take place.

Climate change is expected to impact the labour force by increasing the incidence of certain diseases and worsening the working conditions of outdoor workers. Examining the effects on workers’ health such as incidence of kidney diseases among outdoor workers will be required to not only improve the design of policies to protect labours but also to estimate the additional burden on the healthcare system.

There remains insufficient understanding of whether there is adequate thermoregulatory infrastructure and the extent to which physiological acclimatisation mitigates some of the impacts of heat stress. Research can combine a better understanding of these processes with cost-benefit analyses of adaptation strategies, such as shift working and air conditioning. The potential unintended consequences of policies also need to be better understood. For example, policies to protect labours such as shifting working hours can harm sleep patterns or increase exposure to vector-borne diseases.

As the structure of societies change, contributing to research on green transformation of the labour force and providing evidence as to how to minimise labour market disruptions will become increasingly important. These could also examining the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on employment and policies likely to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Finally, incorporating empirical findings from the heat stress and labour impacts research into economic models such as CGE and IAM will enable improved assessment of the economic consequences of future climate change impacts on labour.

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The labour – nature relationship: Varieties of labour environmentalism

This Special issue is a contribution to environmental labour studies, which aims to investigate the practices and theories that integrate labour and nature, by focusing on labour environmentalism. While nature is privately appropriated and exploited by Capital, workers’ organisations tend to construct nature as labour’s other, a place to enjoy or a place to be protected from destruction at best. Therefore, in order for labour environmentalism (and for environmentalism in general) to reach a ‘substantial depth’, the labour-nature divide needs to be overcome. Environmental theory and practice need to start from the insight that labour and nature are inextricably linked, are two necessary dimensions of the same process. In the following introductory article to this special issue we present our view of what environmental labour studies is investigating and might investigate in the future and the place of labour environmentalism within this broader agenda. We also suggest an analytical framework to evaluate the depth, breadth, and level of agency of the variations of labour environmentalism. We argue that the relationship between labour and nature, environmental and social justice, account for the depth of labour environmentalism, while spatial scale and scope account for its breadth. Whether labour is a pro-active or re-active agent in devising environmental strategies is the third evaluative criterion. We suggest that environmental labour studies can be a way of studying not only the intersections between social and environmental justice, climate change and working conditions but can also contribute to building a bridge between environmental theory and practice.

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Labour and the Environment in India

• First Online: 31 August 2021

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• S. Ravi Rajan 4  

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Although both environmental and labour movements in India address the relationship between the political economies of the state and the impoverishment and disenfranchisement of the poor, there have been few attempts at bringing these literatures in productive conversation. This chapter attempts to do so by examining four themes: natural resource regimes; industrial risk, pollution and disasters; the urban sector; and forced migration and displacement of rural and urban labour.

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Acknowledgements

I am extremely grateful to Dr Rohan d’Souza for his many comments and suggestions, and to the editors of this volume for their extremely useful peer review and suggestions for revision.

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Rajan, S.R. (2021). Labour and the Environment in India. In: Räthzel, N., Stevis, D., Uzzell, D. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Environmental Labour Studies. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-71909-8_2

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Industrialization, Labor, and Life

Industrialization ushered much of the world into the modern era, revamping patterns of human settlement, labor, and family life.

Social Studies, Economics, U.S. History, World History

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Women and children were often employed in the textile industry during the first century of industrialization. Their smaller fingers were often better at threading the machinery. Despite routinely working 16 hours, or longer, a day they were paid little.

Photograph by Nancy Carter

The Industrial Revolution deserves the name with which historians have tagged it. It brought about thorough and lasting transformations, not just in business and economics but in the basic structures of society. Before industrialization , when the most significant economic activities in most European countries were small-scale farming and artisan handicrafts, social structures remained essentially as they had been during the Middle Ages. The advent of industrial development revamped patterns of human settlement, labor, and family life. The changes set in motion by industrialization ushered Europe, the United States of America, and much of the world into the modern era. Most historians place the origin of the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain in the middle decades of the 18th century. In the British Isles and most of Europe at this time, most social activity took place in small and medium-sized villages. People rarely traveled far beyond their home village. During the 18th century, the population of Britain and other European countries began rising significantly. Among the first signs of economic transformation was an increase in agricultural productivity, making it possible to feed this rising population. The combination of these factors led to profound changes in how rural people lived. Gradually, large-scale mechanized agriculture to serve the market began to overtake the kinds of subsistence farming most peasants had practiced for generations. The enclosure movement, which converted commonly held grazing lands into fenced-off private property, added to the new pressures facing the poor, rural majority. The population increase added to the number of people facing difficulties making a living on the land. Many left their agrarian lives behind and headed for towns and cities to find employment. Advances in industry and the growth of factory production accelerated the trend toward urbanization in Britain. Industrial cities like Manchester and Leeds grew dramatically over the course of a few short decades. In 1800, about 20 percent of the British population lived in urban areas. By the middle of the nineteenth century, that proportion had risen to 50 percent. Other Western European lands such as France, the Netherlands, and Germany also experienced an increase in urban populations, albeit, more slowly. These changes thoroughly disrupted longstanding patterns in social relationships that dated back to medieval times. The nature of work in the new urban industries also had significant social impact. Before the Industrial Revolution , artisans with specialized skills produced most of Europe’s manufactured goods. Their work was governed by the traditions of their craft and the limits of available resources. Human and animal muscle and the waterwheel were the era’s main energy sources. With the coming of factory-based industry, the coal-fired steam engine and other machinery set a new, faster pace for labor. In the factories, coal mines, and other workplaces, the hours were very long, and the conditions, generally, dismal and dangerous. The size and scope of manufacturing enterprises continued to increase throughout the 19th century as Europe, the United States, and other parts of the world industrialized. Larger firms that could achieve economies of scale held an advantage in the competitive sphere of international trade. In the industrializing world, the new means of production meant the demise of earlier, slower modes of labor and life. The most insidious consequences of the new conditions may have been those affecting the most basic social unit: the family. The preindustrial family was fundamentally both a social and an economic unit. Married couples and their children often worked side by side on a family farm or in a shop, or otherwise divided their labor for the family’s overall benefit. It was also common in 18th-century Great Britain for women and men to work in their rural homes doing jobs such as textile spinning and weaving on a piecework basis for merchant owners. This decentralized form of employment was called the “putting-out” or domestic system. However, the rise of factory production and industrial cities meant a separation of the home from the workplace for most male workers. Very often, the need for income motivated men to leave their families behind for jobs in the city. Even without geographic separation, many types of industrial jobs were so demanding that they left little downtime for workers to spend preserving the relational bonds we associate with family life. Women also worked outside the home. Unmarried women, in particular, often worked as domestic servants. Many British women, including mothers, were employed in the textile mills to help their families make ends meet. Child labor was also rampant in the textile industry during the first century of industrialization . Factory owners appreciated having workers whose fingers were small enough to manipulate delicately threaded machinery. Despite their importance to the industry’s output, these women and children were paid very little and were routinely compelled to work 16 hours per day or longer. Their jobs were perceived as less skilled than those of their male co-workers, although the working conditions were sometimes equally dangerous. The United States underwent many of the same social transformations arising from industrialization . U.S. manufacturing began in earnest after the nation broke from England in the 1770s. An embargo on foreign imports during the presidency of Thomas Jefferson, and a British blockade of the Atlantic seaboard during the War of 1812, spurred domestic production. The United States became one of the world’s leading economic powers by the 1830s. In the first half century after U.S. independence, a major proportion of the nation’s labor force shifted from the agricultural to the manufacturing sector. As in Great Britain, the textile industry led the way toward mechanization. In many industries, though, home-based production and artisan craft traditions gave way to wage labor in larger, machine-powered operations. Industrialization , along with great strides in transportation, drove the growth of U.S. cities and a rapidly expanding market economy. It also shaped the development of a large working class in U.S. society, leading eventually to labor struggles and strikes led by working men and women. By the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Britain, the United States, and other industrialized nations were debating and enacting reform laws to limit some of the worst abuses of the factory system. However, similarly oppressive labor conditions arose in many parts of the world as their economies industrialized in the 20th and 21st centuries. The reorganization of daily life wrought by industrialization had effects that weakened the material basis for the institutions of the family and the community. These effects were so lasting that they can still be felt in the present day—even as developed societies have shifted into an era that scholars describe as “postindustrial.”

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The Invisible Work of America’s Domestic Workers

With few protections, the day-to-day demands of caregivers can go unnoticed..

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Care worker Vivian Siordia with Colin Campbell, for whom she works. Chloe Aftel

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This story is a collaboration with the Economic Hardship Reporting Project and Magnum Foundation . We asked photographers to show us the paradox of today’s labor movement. Even as the popularity of unions has grown over the last decade, actual membership has continued to decline . Can new enthusiasm revitalize American labor? Read about this unique moment for workers here .

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Care worker Vivian Siordia dressing Colin Campbell, who has cerebral palsy, in the morning.

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Hospital admissions for waterborne diseases in England up 60%, report shows

Labour party analysis of figures since 2010 shows raw sewage was discharged for more than 3.6m hours last year

Waterborne diseases such as dysentery and Weil’s disease have risen by 60% since 2010 in England , new figures reveal.

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The study is the first to show an association between PM2.5 exposure and varying methylation patterns in the human brain. Results should be verified with a larger sample size across more diverse stages of Alzheimer’s disease, according to the authors. (JL)

Citation : Li Z, Liang D, Ebelt S, Gearing M, Kobor MS, Konwar C, Maclsaac JL, Dever K, Wingo AP, Levey AI, Lah JJ, Wingo TS, Hüls A. 2024. Differential DNA methylation in the brain as potential mediator of the association between traffic-related PM2.5 and neuropathology markers of Alzheimer's disease . Alzheimers Dement; doi: 10.1002/alz.13650 [Online ahead of print 12 Feb. 2024].

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The team analyzed data from about 550 middle-aged women enrolled in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation, a racially and ethnically diverse investigation of how the menopausal transition affects health. The researchers assessed the relationship between levels of arsenic, cadmium, mercury, and lead in urine and levels of AMH in blood in the 10 years leading up to the women’s last menstrual period.

Higher urinary concentrations of arsenic and mercury were associated with lower AMH at the final menstrual period. The top one-third of arsenic and mercury exposures were associated with 32% and 40% lower AMH levels, respectively, compared to the bottom one-third of exposures. During the menopausal transition period, women in the top one-third of cadmium and mercury exposures experienced faster rates of AMH decline — 9% and 7%, respectively — than women in the bottom one-third.

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Citation : Ding N, Wang X, Harlow SD, Randolph JF Jr, Gold EB, Park SK. 2024. Heavy metals and trajectories of anti-Müllerian hormone during the menopausal transition . J Clin Endocrinol Metab dgad756.

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The consequences of preterm birth include infant and childhood mortality; adverse psychological, behavioral, and educational outcomes in young adulthood; and cardiovascular disease and diabetes in later life. Phthalates — synthetic chemicals widely used in consumer products, such as vinyl flooring and personal -care items — have been implicated in preterm birth. However, little is understood about the potential effects of newer phthalates, such as diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) and diisodecyl phthalate (DiDP), used to replace di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) in food packaging.

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Although DEHP exposure was associated with preterm birth, the replacement chemicals DiDP, DiNP, and di-n-octyl phthalate showed stronger associations. The team also estimated that 56,595 cases of preterm birth in 2018 could be attributed to phthalate exposures. For that year, lost economic productivity and additional medical care costs due to phthalate-induced preterm birth could have ranged from $1.6 to $8.1 billion.

The results suggest substantial opportunities for phthalate exposure prevention, according to the authors. They added their findings also show that DEHP replacements are not safer, indicating a need to regulate chemicals with similar properties as a class. (JL)

Citation : Trasande L, Nelson ME, Alshawabkeh A, Barrett ES, Buckley JP, Dabelea D, Dunlop AL, Herbstman JB, Meeker JD, Naidu M, Newschaffer C, Padula AM, Romano ME, Ruden DM, Sathyanarayana S, Schantz SL, Starling AP, Hamra GB; programme collaborators for Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes. 2024. Prenatal phthalate exposure and adverse birth outcomes in the USA: a prospective analysis of births and estimates of attributable burden and costs . Lancet Planet Health 8(2):e74–e85.

Moderate radon exposure associated with increased risk of stroke in women

Exposure to moderate levels of radon was associated with increased risk of stroke in middle-aged and older women, NIEHS-funded researchers reported. The findings add to limited research on how exposure to the radioactive gas affects stroke risk in women, who are more prone to strokes than men.

Rocks and soil naturally release radon, which can accumulate inside buildings by entering through small cracks. Although radon is a leading cause of lung cancer and is implicated in stroke, radon testing and mitigation tend to be less common than recommended in the U.S.

The researchers used data from nearly 160,000 women ages 50-79 when they joined the Women’s Health Initiative, a decades-long study of postmenopausal women in the U.S. They estimated exposure by linking each woman’s home address to federal data on radon levels, which they grouped into low-, middle-, and high-radon exposures. Using medical records and death certificates, they confirmed stroke outcomes in participants during the approximately 13-year follow-up.

Stroke risk was 6% and 14% greater among women living in middle and high exposure areas, respectively, compared to those with the lowest radon exposures. Notably, stroke risk was significantly elevated among women exposed to radon at mid-levels, which are below the recommended threshold for taking mitigation steps, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Overall, the results suggest a relationship between radon exposure and increased risk of stroke among women. According to the authors, confirmation of this trend in a more diverse population could extend the generalizability of these findings and help inform stricter radon action levels to protect public health. (MA)

Citation : Buchheit SF, Collins JM, Anthony KM, Love SM, Stewart JD, Gondalia R, Huang DY, Manson JE, Reiner AP, Schwartz GG, Vitolins MZ, Schumann RR, Smith RL, Whitsel EA. 2024. Radon exposure and incident stroke risk in the Women’s Health Initiative . Neurology 102(4).

(Megan Avakian and Julie Leibach are senior science writers at MDB, Inc., a contractor for the NIEHS Division of Extramural Research and Training.)

Read the current Superfund Research Program Research Brief . New issues are published on the first Wednesday of every month.

Crypto Exchange Binance Names Its First Board of Directors (1)

By Muyao Shen

Binance Holdings Ltd. named a board of directors for the first time, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange seeks to reshape itself after pleading guilty last year to US charges of anti-money laundering and sanctions violations.

Gabriel Abed, who served as ambassador of Barbados to the United Arab Emirates, was named as chairman. The seven-member board also includes Chief Executive Officer Richard Teng , along with three other company executives - Heina Chen, Jinkai He, and Lilai Wang. The two other outside members are Arnaud Ventura , managing partner at investment firm Gojo & Co, and Bayview Acquisition Corp. CEO ...

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