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How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Guide & Examples

Published on 6 May 2022 by Shona McCombes .

A hypothesis is a statement that can be tested by scientific research. If you want to test a relationship between two or more variables, you need to write hypotheses before you start your experiment or data collection.

Table of contents

What is a hypothesis, developing a hypothesis (with example), hypothesis examples, frequently asked questions about writing hypotheses.

A hypothesis states your predictions about what your research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research question that has not yet been tested. For some research projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that address different aspects of your research question.

A hypothesis is not just a guess – it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations, and statistical analysis of data).

Variables in hypotheses

Hypotheses propose a relationship between two or more variables . An independent variable is something the researcher changes or controls. A dependent variable is something the researcher observes and measures.

In this example, the independent variable is exposure to the sun – the assumed cause . The dependent variable is the level of happiness – the assumed effect .

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Step 1: ask a question.

Writing a hypothesis begins with a research question that you want to answer. The question should be focused, specific, and researchable within the constraints of your project.

Step 2: Do some preliminary research

Your initial answer to the question should be based on what is already known about the topic. Look for theories and previous studies to help you form educated assumptions about what your research will find.

At this stage, you might construct a conceptual framework to identify which variables you will study and what you think the relationships are between them. Sometimes, you’ll have to operationalise more complex constructs.

Step 3: Formulate your hypothesis

Now you should have some idea of what you expect to find. Write your initial answer to the question in a clear, concise sentence.

Step 4: Refine your hypothesis

You need to make sure your hypothesis is specific and testable. There are various ways of phrasing a hypothesis, but all the terms you use should have clear definitions, and the hypothesis should contain:

• The relevant variables
• The specific group being studied
• The predicted outcome of the experiment or analysis

Step 5: Phrase your hypothesis in three ways

To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in if … then form. The first part of the sentence states the independent variable and the second part states the dependent variable.

In academic research, hypotheses are more commonly phrased in terms of correlations or effects, where you directly state the predicted relationship between variables.

If you are comparing two groups, the hypothesis can state what difference you expect to find between them.

Step 6. Write a null hypothesis

If your research involves statistical hypothesis testing , you will also have to write a null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the default position that there is no association between the variables. The null hypothesis is written as H 0 , while the alternative hypothesis is H 1 or H a .

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

A hypothesis is not just a guess. It should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations, and statistical analysis of data).

A research hypothesis is your proposed answer to your research question. The research hypothesis usually includes an explanation (‘ x affects y because …’).

A statistical hypothesis, on the other hand, is a mathematical statement about a population parameter. Statistical hypotheses always come in pairs: the null and alternative hypotheses. In a well-designed study , the statistical hypotheses correspond logically to the research hypothesis.

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Home » What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

Table of Contents

Definition:

Hypothesis is an educated guess or proposed explanation for a phenomenon, based on some initial observations or data. It is a tentative statement that can be tested and potentially proven or disproven through further investigation and experimentation.

Hypothesis is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments and the collection and analysis of data. It is an essential element of the scientific method, as it allows researchers to make predictions about the outcome of their experiments and to test those predictions to determine their accuracy.

Types of Hypothesis

Types of Hypothesis are as follows:

Research Hypothesis

A research hypothesis is a statement that predicts a relationship between variables. It is usually formulated as a specific statement that can be tested through research, and it is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments.

Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is no significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as a starting point for testing the research hypothesis, and if the results of the study reject the null hypothesis, it suggests that there is a significant difference or relationship between variables.

Alternative Hypothesis

An alternative hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is a significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as an alternative to the null hypothesis and is tested against the null hypothesis to determine which statement is more accurate.

Directional Hypothesis

A directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the direction of the relationship between variables. For example, a researcher might predict that increasing the amount of exercise will result in a decrease in body weight.

Non-directional Hypothesis

A non-directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the relationship between variables but does not specify the direction. For example, a researcher might predict that there is a relationship between the amount of exercise and body weight, but they do not specify whether increasing or decreasing exercise will affect body weight.

Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a statement that assumes a particular statistical model or distribution for the data. It is often used in statistical analysis to test the significance of a particular result.

Composite Hypothesis

A composite hypothesis is a statement that assumes more than one condition or outcome. It can be divided into several sub-hypotheses, each of which represents a different possible outcome.

Empirical Hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is a statement that is based on observed phenomena or data. It is often used in scientific research to develop theories or models that explain the observed phenomena.

Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis is a statement that assumes only one outcome or condition. It is often used in scientific research to test a single variable or factor.

Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis is a statement that assumes multiple outcomes or conditions. It is often used in scientific research to test the effects of multiple variables or factors on a particular outcome.

Applications of Hypothesis

Hypotheses are used in various fields to guide research and make predictions about the outcomes of experiments or observations. Here are some examples of how hypotheses are applied in different fields:

• Science : In scientific research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain natural phenomena. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular variable on a natural system, such as the effects of climate change on an ecosystem.
• Medicine : In medical research, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of treatments and therapies for specific conditions. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new drug on a particular disease.
• Psychology : In psychology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of human behavior and cognition. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular stimulus on the brain or behavior.
• Sociology : In sociology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of social phenomena, such as the effects of social structures or institutions on human behavior. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of income inequality on crime rates.
• Business : In business research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain business phenomena, such as consumer behavior or market trends. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new marketing campaign on consumer buying behavior.
• Engineering : In engineering, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of new technologies or designs. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the efficiency of a new solar panel design.

How to write a Hypothesis

Here are the steps to follow when writing a hypothesis:

Identify the Research Question

The first step is to identify the research question that you want to answer through your study. This question should be clear, specific, and focused. It should be something that can be investigated empirically and that has some relevance or significance in the field.

Conduct a Literature Review

Before writing your hypothesis, it’s essential to conduct a thorough literature review to understand what is already known about the topic. This will help you to identify the research gap and formulate a hypothesis that builds on existing knowledge.

Determine the Variables

The next step is to identify the variables involved in the research question. A variable is any characteristic or factor that can vary or change. There are two types of variables: independent and dependent. The independent variable is the one that is manipulated or changed by the researcher, while the dependent variable is the one that is measured or observed as a result of the independent variable.

Formulate the Hypothesis

Based on the research question and the variables involved, you can now formulate your hypothesis. A hypothesis should be a clear and concise statement that predicts the relationship between the variables. It should be testable through empirical research and based on existing theory or evidence.

Write the Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is the opposite of the alternative hypothesis, which is the hypothesis that you are testing. The null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference or relationship between the variables. It is important to write the null hypothesis because it allows you to compare your results with what would be expected by chance.

Refine the Hypothesis

After formulating the hypothesis, it’s important to refine it and make it more precise. This may involve clarifying the variables, specifying the direction of the relationship, or making the hypothesis more testable.

Examples of Hypothesis

Here are a few examples of hypotheses in different fields:

• Psychology : “Increased exposure to violent video games leads to increased aggressive behavior in adolescents.”
• Biology : “Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to increased plant growth.”
• Sociology : “Individuals who grow up in households with higher socioeconomic status will have higher levels of education and income as adults.”
• Education : “Implementing a new teaching method will result in higher student achievement scores.”
• Marketing : “Customers who receive a personalized email will be more likely to make a purchase than those who receive a generic email.”
• Physics : “An increase in temperature will cause an increase in the volume of a gas, assuming all other variables remain constant.”
• Medicine : “Consuming a diet high in saturated fats will increase the risk of developing heart disease.”

Purpose of Hypothesis

The purpose of a hypothesis is to provide a testable explanation for an observed phenomenon or a prediction of a future outcome based on existing knowledge or theories. A hypothesis is an essential part of the scientific method and helps to guide the research process by providing a clear focus for investigation. It enables scientists to design experiments or studies to gather evidence and data that can support or refute the proposed explanation or prediction.

The formulation of a hypothesis is based on existing knowledge, observations, and theories, and it should be specific, testable, and falsifiable. A specific hypothesis helps to define the research question, which is important in the research process as it guides the selection of an appropriate research design and methodology. Testability of the hypothesis means that it can be proven or disproven through empirical data collection and analysis. Falsifiability means that the hypothesis should be formulated in such a way that it can be proven wrong if it is incorrect.

In addition to guiding the research process, the testing of hypotheses can lead to new discoveries and advancements in scientific knowledge. When a hypothesis is supported by the data, it can be used to develop new theories or models to explain the observed phenomenon. When a hypothesis is not supported by the data, it can help to refine existing theories or prompt the development of new hypotheses to explain the phenomenon.

When to use Hypothesis

Here are some common situations in which hypotheses are used:

• In scientific research , hypotheses are used to guide the design of experiments and to help researchers make predictions about the outcomes of those experiments.
• In social science research , hypotheses are used to test theories about human behavior, social relationships, and other phenomena.
• I n business , hypotheses can be used to guide decisions about marketing, product development, and other areas. For example, a hypothesis might be that a new product will sell well in a particular market, and this hypothesis can be tested through market research.

Characteristics of Hypothesis

Here are some common characteristics of a hypothesis:

• Testable : A hypothesis must be able to be tested through observation or experimentation. This means that it must be possible to collect data that will either support or refute the hypothesis.
• Falsifiable : A hypothesis must be able to be proven false if it is not supported by the data. If a hypothesis cannot be falsified, then it is not a scientific hypothesis.
• Clear and concise : A hypothesis should be stated in a clear and concise manner so that it can be easily understood and tested.
• Based on existing knowledge : A hypothesis should be based on existing knowledge and research in the field. It should not be based on personal beliefs or opinions.
• Specific : A hypothesis should be specific in terms of the variables being tested and the predicted outcome. This will help to ensure that the research is focused and well-designed.
• Tentative: A hypothesis is a tentative statement or assumption that requires further testing and evidence to be confirmed or refuted. It is not a final conclusion or assertion.
• Relevant : A hypothesis should be relevant to the research question or problem being studied. It should address a gap in knowledge or provide a new perspective on the issue.

Advantages of Hypothesis

Hypotheses have several advantages in scientific research and experimentation:

• Guides research: A hypothesis provides a clear and specific direction for research. It helps to focus the research question, select appropriate methods and variables, and interpret the results.
• Predictive powe r: A hypothesis makes predictions about the outcome of research, which can be tested through experimentation. This allows researchers to evaluate the validity of the hypothesis and make new discoveries.
• Facilitates communication: A hypothesis provides a common language and framework for scientists to communicate with one another about their research. This helps to facilitate the exchange of ideas and promotes collaboration.
• Efficient use of resources: A hypothesis helps researchers to use their time, resources, and funding efficiently by directing them towards specific research questions and methods that are most likely to yield results.
• Provides a basis for further research: A hypothesis that is supported by data provides a basis for further research and exploration. It can lead to new hypotheses, theories, and discoveries.
• Increases objectivity: A hypothesis can help to increase objectivity in research by providing a clear and specific framework for testing and interpreting results. This can reduce bias and increase the reliability of research findings.

Limitations of Hypothesis

Some Limitations of the Hypothesis are as follows:

• Limited to observable phenomena: Hypotheses are limited to observable phenomena and cannot account for unobservable or intangible factors. This means that some research questions may not be amenable to hypothesis testing.
• May be inaccurate or incomplete: Hypotheses are based on existing knowledge and research, which may be incomplete or inaccurate. This can lead to flawed hypotheses and erroneous conclusions.
• May be biased: Hypotheses may be biased by the researcher’s own beliefs, values, or assumptions. This can lead to selective interpretation of data and a lack of objectivity in research.
• Cannot prove causation: A hypothesis can only show a correlation between variables, but it cannot prove causation. This requires further experimentation and analysis.
• Limited to specific contexts: Hypotheses are limited to specific contexts and may not be generalizable to other situations or populations. This means that results may not be applicable in other contexts or may require further testing.
• May be affected by chance : Hypotheses may be affected by chance or random variation, which can obscure or distort the true relationship between variables.

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How to Write a Hypothesis: A Step-by-Step Guide

Introduction

An overview of the research hypothesis, different types of hypotheses, variables in a hypothesis, how to formulate an effective research hypothesis, designing a study around your hypothesis.

The scientific method can derive and test predictions as hypotheses. Empirical research can then provide support (or lack thereof) for the hypotheses. Even failure to find support for a hypothesis still represents a valuable contribution to scientific knowledge. Let's look more closely at the idea of the hypothesis and the role it plays in research.

As much as the term exists in everyday language, there is a detailed development that informs the word "hypothesis" when applied to research. A good research hypothesis is informed by prior research and guides research design and data analysis , so it is important to understand how a hypothesis is defined and understood by researchers.

What is the simple definition of a hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a testable prediction about an outcome between two or more variables . It functions as a navigational tool in the research process, directing what you aim to predict and how.

What is the hypothesis for in research?

In research, a hypothesis serves as the cornerstone for your empirical study. It not only lays out what you aim to investigate but also provides a structured approach for your data collection and analysis.

Essentially, it bridges the gap between the theoretical and the empirical, guiding your investigation throughout its course.

What is an example of a hypothesis?

If you are studying the relationship between physical exercise and mental health, a suitable hypothesis could be: "Regular physical exercise leads to improved mental well-being among adults."

This statement constitutes a specific and testable hypothesis that directly relates to the variables you are investigating.

What makes a good hypothesis?

A good hypothesis possesses several key characteristics. Firstly, it must be testable, allowing you to analyze data through empirical means, such as observation or experimentation, to assess if there is significant support for the hypothesis. Secondly, a hypothesis should be specific and unambiguous, giving a clear understanding of the expected relationship between variables. Lastly, it should be grounded in existing research or theoretical frameworks , ensuring its relevance and applicability.

Understanding the types of hypotheses can greatly enhance how you construct and work with hypotheses. While all hypotheses serve the essential function of guiding your study, there are varying purposes among the types of hypotheses. In addition, all hypotheses stand in contrast to the null hypothesis, or the assumption that there is no significant relationship between the variables .

Here, we explore various kinds of hypotheses to provide you with the tools needed to craft effective hypotheses for your specific research needs. Bear in mind that many of these hypothesis types may overlap with one another, and the specific type that is typically used will likely depend on the area of research and methodology you are following.

Null hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that there is no effect or relationship between the variables being studied. In statistical terms, it serves as the default assumption that any observed differences are due to random chance.

For example, if you're studying the effect of a drug on blood pressure, the null hypothesis might state that the drug has no effect.

Alternative hypothesis

Contrary to the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis suggests that there is a significant relationship or effect between variables.

Using the drug example, the alternative hypothesis would posit that the drug does indeed affect blood pressure. This is what researchers aim to prove.

Simple hypothesis

A simple hypothesis makes a prediction about the relationship between two variables, and only two variables.

For example, "Increased study time results in better exam scores." Here, "study time" and "exam scores" are the only variables involved.

Complex hypothesis

A complex hypothesis, as the name suggests, involves more than two variables. For instance, "Increased study time and access to resources result in better exam scores." Here, "study time," "access to resources," and "exam scores" are all variables.

This hypothesis refers to multiple potential mediating variables. Other hypotheses could also include predictions about variables that moderate the relationship between the independent variable and dependent variable .

Directional hypothesis

A directional hypothesis specifies the direction of the expected relationship between variables. For example, "Eating more fruits and vegetables leads to a decrease in heart disease."

Here, the direction of heart disease is explicitly predicted to decrease, due to effects from eating more fruits and vegetables. All hypotheses typically specify the expected direction of the relationship between the independent and dependent variable, such that researchers can test if this prediction holds in their data analysis .

Statistical hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is one that is testable through statistical methods, providing a numerical value that can be analyzed. This is commonly seen in quantitative research .

For example, "There is a statistically significant difference in test scores between students who study for one hour and those who study for two."

Empirical hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is derived from observations and is tested through empirical methods, often through experimentation or survey data . Empirical hypotheses may also be assessed with statistical analyses.

For example, "Regular exercise is correlated with a lower incidence of depression," could be tested through surveys that measure exercise frequency and depression levels.

Causal hypothesis

A causal hypothesis proposes that one variable causes a change in another. This type of hypothesis is often tested through controlled experiments.

For example, "Smoking causes lung cancer," assumes a direct causal relationship.

Associative hypothesis

Unlike causal hypotheses, associative hypotheses suggest a relationship between variables but do not imply causation.

For instance, "People who smoke are more likely to get lung cancer," notes an association but doesn't claim that smoking causes lung cancer directly.

Relational hypothesis

A relational hypothesis explores the relationship between two or more variables but doesn't specify the nature of the relationship.

For example, "There is a relationship between diet and heart health," leaves the nature of the relationship (causal, associative, etc.) open to interpretation.

Logical hypothesis

A logical hypothesis is based on sound reasoning and logical principles. It's often used in theoretical research to explore abstract concepts, rather than being based on empirical data.

For example, "If all men are mortal and Socrates is a man, then Socrates is mortal," employs logical reasoning to make its point.

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In any research hypothesis, variables play a critical role. These are the elements or factors that the researcher manipulates, controls, or measures. Understanding variables is essential for crafting a clear, testable hypothesis and for the stages of research that follow, such as data collection and analysis.

In the realm of hypotheses, there are generally two types of variables to consider: independent and dependent. Independent variables are what you, as the researcher, manipulate or change in your study. It's considered the cause in the relationship you're investigating. For instance, in a study examining the impact of sleep duration on academic performance, the independent variable would be the amount of sleep participants get.

Conversely, the dependent variable is the outcome you measure to gauge the effect of your manipulation. It's the effect in the cause-and-effect relationship. The dependent variable thus refers to the main outcome of interest in your study. In the same sleep study example, the academic performance, perhaps measured by exam scores or GPA, would be the dependent variable.

Beyond these two primary types, you might also encounter control variables. These are variables that could potentially influence the outcome and are therefore kept constant to isolate the relationship between the independent and dependent variables . For example, in the sleep and academic performance study, control variables could include age, diet, or even the subject of study.

By clearly identifying and understanding the roles of these variables in your hypothesis, you set the stage for a methodologically sound research project. It helps you develop focused research questions, design appropriate experiments or observations, and carry out meaningful data analysis . It's a step that lays the groundwork for the success of your entire study.

Crafting a strong, testable hypothesis is crucial for the success of any research project. It sets the stage for everything from your study design to data collection and analysis . Below are some key considerations to keep in mind when formulating your hypothesis:

• Be specific : A vague hypothesis can lead to ambiguous results and interpretations . Clearly define your variables and the expected relationship between them.
• Ensure testability : A good hypothesis should be testable through empirical means, whether by observation , experimentation, or other forms of data analysis.
• Ground in literature : Before creating your hypothesis, consult existing research and theories. This not only helps you identify gaps in current knowledge but also gives you valuable context and credibility for crafting your hypothesis.
• Use simple language : While your hypothesis should be conceptually sound, it doesn't have to be complicated. Aim for clarity and simplicity in your wording.
• State direction, if applicable : If your hypothesis involves a directional outcome (e.g., "increase" or "decrease"), make sure to specify this. You also need to think about how you will measure whether or not the outcome moved in the direction you predicted.
• Keep it focused : One of the common pitfalls in hypothesis formulation is trying to answer too many questions at once. Keep your hypothesis focused on a specific issue or relationship.
• Account for control variables : Identify any variables that could potentially impact the outcome and consider how you will control for them in your study.
• Be ethical : Make sure your hypothesis and the methods for testing it comply with ethical standards , particularly if your research involves human or animal subjects.

Designing your study involves multiple key phases that help ensure the rigor and validity of your research. Here we discuss these crucial components in more detail.

Literature review

Starting with a comprehensive literature review is essential. This step allows you to understand the existing body of knowledge related to your hypothesis and helps you identify gaps that your research could fill. Your research should aim to contribute some novel understanding to existing literature, and your hypotheses can reflect this. A literature review also provides valuable insights into how similar research projects were executed, thereby helping you fine-tune your own approach.

Research methods

Choosing the right research methods is critical. Whether it's a survey, an experiment, or observational study, the methodology should be the most appropriate for testing your hypothesis. Your choice of methods will also depend on whether your research is quantitative, qualitative, or mixed-methods. Make sure the chosen methods align well with the variables you are studying and the type of data you need.

Preliminary research

Before diving into a full-scale study, it’s often beneficial to conduct preliminary research or a pilot study . This allows you to test your research methods on a smaller scale, refine your tools, and identify any potential issues. For instance, a pilot survey can help you determine if your questions are clear and if the survey effectively captures the data you need. This step can save you both time and resources in the long run.

Data analysis

Finally, planning your data analysis in advance is crucial for a successful study. Decide which statistical or analytical tools are most suited for your data type and research questions . For quantitative research, you might opt for t-tests, ANOVA, or regression analyses. For qualitative research , thematic analysis or grounded theory may be more appropriate. This phase is integral for interpreting your results and drawing meaningful conclusions in relation to your research question.

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Formulating and Testing Hypotheses

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• Gary A. Wobeser 2  

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The term hypothesis has been mentioned several times in the preceding chapters. The definition that will be used here is that a hypothesis is a proposition set forth as explanation for the occurrence of a specified phenomenon. The basis of scientific investigation is the collection of information that is used either to formulate or to test hypotheses. One assesses the important variables and tries to build a model or hypothesis that explains the observed phenomenon. In general, a hypothesis is formulated by rephrasing the objective of a study as a statement, e.g., if the objective of an investigation is to determine if a pesticide is safe, the resulting hypothesis might be “ the pesticide is not safe ”, or alternatively that “ the pesticide is safe ”. A hypothesis is a statistical hypothesis only if it is stated in terms related to the distribution of populations. The general hypothesis above might be refined to: “ this pesticide, when used as directed, has no effect on the average number of robins in an area ”, which is a testable hypothesis. The hypothesis to be tested is called the null hypothesis (H 0 ). The alternative hypothesis (H 1 ) for the above example would be “ this pesticide, when used as directed, has an effect on the average number of robins in an area”. In testing a hypothesis, H 0 is considered to be true, unless the sample data indicate otherwise, (i.e., that the pesticide is innocent, unless proven guilty). Testing cannot prove H 0 to be true but the results can cause it to be rejected. In accepting or rejecting H 0 , two types of error may be made. If H 0 is rejected when, in fact, it is true a type 1 error has been committed. If Ho is not true and the test fails to reject it, a type 2 error has been made.

“ Research in the field, through study of disease as it manifests itself in nature, is an important and independent approach to solution of medical problems. Modern medical progress has been so thoroughly associated with research in the biological laboratory, and it has been so largely a development of the experimental method, that this other and older method has come in recent years to be overshadowed ” (Gordon, 1950)

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Wobeser, G.A. (1994). Formulating and Testing Hypotheses. In: Investigation and Management of Disease in Wild Animals. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-5609-8_6

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1.2: The 7-Step Process of Statistical Hypothesis Testing

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We will cover the seven steps one by one.

Step 1: State the Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis can be thought of as the opposite of the "guess" the researchers made: in this example, the biologist thinks the plant height will be different for the fertilizers. So the null would be that there will be no difference among the groups of plants. Specifically, in more statistical language the null for an ANOVA is that the means are the same. We state the null hypothesis as: \[H_{0}: \ \mu_{1} = \mu_{2} = \ldots = \mu_{T}\] for \(T\) levels of an experimental treatment.

Why do we do this? Why not simply test the working hypothesis directly? The answer lies in the Popperian Principle of Falsification. Karl Popper (a philosopher) discovered that we can't conclusively confirm a hypothesis, but we can conclusively negate one. So we set up a null hypothesis which is effectively the opposite of the working hypothesis. The hope is that based on the strength of the data, we will be able to negate or reject the null hypothesis and accept an alternative hypothesis. In other words, we usually see the working hypothesis in \(H_{A}\).

Step 2: State the Alternative Hypothesis

\[H_{A}: \ \text{treatment level means not all equal}\]

The reason we state the alternative hypothesis this way is that if the null is rejected, there are many possibilities.

For example, \(\mu_{1} \neq \mu_{2} = \ldots = \mu_{T}\) is one possibility, as is \(\mu_{1} = \mu_{2} \neq \mu_{3} = \ldots = \mu_{T}\). Many people make the mistake of stating the alternative hypothesis as \(mu_{1} \neq mu_{2} \neq \ldots \neq \mu_{T}\), which says that every mean differs from every other mean. This is a possibility, but only one of many possibilities. To cover all alternative outcomes, we resort to a verbal statement of "not all equal" and then follow up with mean comparisons to find out where differences among means exist. In our example, this means that fertilizer 1 may result in plants that are really tall, but fertilizers 2, 3, and the plants with no fertilizers don't differ from one another. A simpler way of thinking about this is that at least one mean is different from all others.

Step 3: Set \(\alpha\)

If we look at what can happen in a hypothesis test, we can construct the following contingency table:

You should be familiar with type I and type II errors from your introductory course. It is important to note that we want to set \(\alpha\) before the experiment ( a priori ) because the Type I error is the more grievous error to make. The typical value of \(\alpha\) is 0.05, establishing a 95% confidence level. For this course, we will assume \(\alpha\) =0.05, unless stated otherwise.

Step 4: Collect Data

Remember the importance of recognizing whether data is collected through an experimental design or observational study.

Step 5: Calculate a test statistic

For categorical treatment level means, we use an \(F\) statistic, named after R.A. Fisher. We will explore the mechanics of computing the \(F\) statistic beginning in Chapter 2. The \(F\) value we get from the data is labeled \(F_{\text{calculated}}\).

Step 6: Construct Acceptance / Rejection regions

As with all other test statistics, a threshold (critical) value of \(F\) is established. This \(F\) value can be obtained from statistical tables or software and is referred to as \(F_{\text{critical}}\) or \(F_{\alpha}\). As a reminder, this critical value is the minimum value for the test statistic (in this case the F test) for us to be able to reject the null.

The \(F\) distribution, \(F_{\alpha}\), and the location of acceptance and rejection regions are shown in the graph below:

Step 7: Based on steps 5 and 6, draw a conclusion about H0

If the \(F_{\text{\calculated}}\) from the data is larger than the \(F_{\alpha}\), then you are in the rejection region and you can reject the null hypothesis with \((1 - \alpha)\) level of confidence.

Note that modern statistical software condenses steps 6 and 7 by providing a \(p\)-value. The \(p\)-value here is the probability of getting an \(F_{\text{calculated}}\) even greater than what you observe assuming the null hypothesis is true. If by chance, the \(F_{\text{calculated}} = F_{\alpha}\), then the \(p\)-value would exactly equal \(\alpha\). With larger \(F_{\text{calculated}}\) values, we move further into the rejection region and the \(p\) - value becomes less than \(\alpha\). So the decision rule is as follows:

If the \(p\) - value obtained from the ANOVA is less than \(\alpha\), then reject \(H_{0}\) and accept \(H_{A}\).

If you are not familiar with this material, we suggest that you review course materials from your basic statistics course.

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Children who spend more time playing outside are more likely to be imaginative. What do you think this statement is an example of in terms of scientific research ? If you guessed a hypothesis, then you'd be correct. The formulation of hypotheses is a fundamental step in psychology research.

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• First, we will discuss the importance of hypotheses in research.
• We will then cover formulating hypotheses in research, including the steps in the formulation of hypotheses in research methodology.
• We will provide examples of hypotheses in research throughout the explanation.
• Finally, we will delve into the different types of hypotheses in research.

What is a Hypothesis?

The current community of psychologists believe that the best approach to understanding behaviour is to conduct scientific research . To be classed as scientific research , it must be observable, valid, reliable and follow a standardised procedure.

One of the important steps in scientific research is to formulate a hypothesis before starting the study procedure.

The hypothesis is a predictive, testable statement predicting the outcome and the results the researcher expects to find.

The hypothesis provides a summary of what direction, if any, is taken to investigate a theory.

In scientific research, there is a criterion that hypotheses need to be met to be regarded as acceptable.

If a hypothesis is disregarded, the research may be rejected by the community of psychology researchers.

Importance of Hypothesis in Research

The purpose of including hypotheses in psychology research is:

• To provide a summary of the research, how it will be investigated, and what is expected to be found.
• To provide an answer to the research question.

When carrying out research, researchers first investigate the research area they are interested in. From this, researchers are required to identify a gap in the literature.

Filling the gap essentially means finding what previous work has not been explained yet, investigated to a sufficient degree, or simply expanding or further investigating a theory if doubt exists.

The researcher then forms a research question that the researcher will attempt to answer in their study.

Remember, the hypothesis is a predictive statement of what is expected to happen when testing the research question.

The hypothesis can be used for later data analysis. This includes inferential tests such as hypothesis testing and identifying if statistical findings are significant.

Steps in the Formulation of Hypothesis in Research Methodology

Researchers must follow certain steps to formulate testable hypotheses when conducting research.

Overall, the researcher has to consider the direction of the research, i.e. will it be looking for a difference caused by independent variables ? Or will it be more concerned with the correlation between variables?

All researchers will likely complete the following.

• Investigating background research in the area of interest.
• Formulating or investigating a theory.
• Identify how the theory will be tested and what the researcher expects to find based on relevant, previously published scientific works.

The above steps are used to formulate testable hypotheses.

The Formulation of Testable Hypotheses

The hypothesis is important in research as it indicates what and how a variable will be investigated.

The hypothesis essentially summarises what and how something will be investigated. This is important as it ensures that the researcher has carefully planned how the research will be done, as the researchers have to follow a set procedure to conduct research.

This is known as the scientific method.

Formulating Hypotheses in Research

When formulating hypotheses, things that researchers should consider are:

Types of Hypotheses in Research

Researchers can propose different types of hypotheses when carrying out research.

The following research scenario will be discussed to show examples of each type of hypothesis that the researchers could use. "A research team was investigating whether memory performance is affected by depression ."

The identified independent variable is the severity of depression scores, and the dependent variable is the scores from a memory performance task.

The null hypothesis predicts that the results will show no or little effect. The null hypothesis is a predictive statement that researchers use when it is thought that the IV will not influence the DV.

In this case, the null hypothesis would be there will be no difference in memory scores on the MMSE test of those who are diagnosed with depression and those who are not.

An alternative hypothesis is a predictive statement used when it is thought that the IV will influence the DV. The alternative hypothesis is also called a non-directional, two-tailed hypothesis, as it predicts the results can go either way, e.g. increase or decrease.

The example in this scenario is there will be an observed difference in scores from a memory performance task between people with high- or low-depressive scores.

The directional alternative hypothesis states how the IV will influence the DV, identifying a specific direction, such as if there will be an increase or decrease in the observed results.

The example in this scenario is people with low depressive scores will perform better in the memory performance task than people who score higher in depressive symptoms.

Example Hypothesis in Research

To summarise, let's look at an example of a straightforward hypothesis that indicates the relationship between two variables: the independent and the dependent.

If you stay up late, you will feel tired the following day; the more caffeine you drink, the harder you find it to fall asleep, or the more sunlight plants get, the taller they will grow.

Formulation of Hypothesis - Key Takeaways

• The current community of psychologists believe that the best approach to understanding behaviour is to conduct scientific research. One of the important steps in scientific research is to create a hypothesis.
• The hypothesis is a predictive, testable statement concerning the outcome/results that the researcher expects to find.
• Hypotheses are needed in research to provide a summary of what the research is, how to investigate a theory and what is expected to be found, and to provide an answer to the research question so that the hypothesis can be used for later data analysis.
• There are requirements for the formulation of testable hypotheses. The hypotheses should identify and operationalise the IV and DV. In addition, they should describe the nature of the relationship between the IV and DV.
• There are different types of hypotheses: Null hypothesis, Alternative hypothesis (this is also known as the non-directional, two-tailed hypothesis), and Directional hypothesis (this is also known as the one-tailed hypothesis).

Frequently Asked Questions about Formulation of Hypothesis

--> what are the 3 types of hypotheses.

The three types of hypotheses are:

• Null hypothesis 
• Alternative hypothesis 
• Directional/non-directional hypothesis 

--> What is an example of a hypothesis in psychology?

An example of a null hypothesis in psychology is, there will be no observed difference in scores from a memory performance task between people with high- or low-depressive scores.

--> What are the steps in formulating a hypothesis?

All researchers will likely complete the following

• Investigating background research in the area of interest 
• Formulating or investigating a theory 
• Identify how the theory will be tested and what the researcher expects to find based on relevant, previously published scientific works 

--> What is formulation of hypothesis in research? 

The formulation of a hypothesis in research is when the researcher formulates a predictive statement of what is expected to happen when testing the research question based on background research.

--> How to formulate  null and alternative hypothesis?

When formulating a null hypothesis the researcher would state a prediction that they expect to see no difference in the dependent variable when the independent variable changes or is manipulated. Whereas, when using an alternative hypothesis then it would be predicted that there will be a change in the dependent variable. The researcher can state in which direction they expect the results to go. 

Test your knowledge with multiple choice flashcards

What type of hypothesis matches the following definition. A predictive statement that researchers use when it is thought that the IV will not influence the DV.

What type of hypothesis matches the following definition. A hypothesis that states that the IV will influence the DV. But, the hypothesis does not state how the IV will influence the DV. 

What type of hypothesis matches the following definition. A hypothesis that states that the IV will influence the DV, and states how it will influence the DV. 

Your score:

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Null hypothesis 

Alternative hypothesis 

Directional, alternative hypothesis 

Which type of hypothesis is also known as a two-tailed hypothesis? 

What type of hypothesis is the following example. There will be no observed difference in scores from a memory performance task between people with high- or low-depressive scores.

What type of hypothesis is the following example. There will be an observed difference in scores from a memory performance task between people with high- or low-depressive scores.

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5 Basic Steps in Formulation of Hypothesis in Research

Formulation of a Hypothesis in research is an essential task in the entire Research Process that comes in the third step. A hypothesis is a tentative solution to a research problem or question. Here, we will cover a functional definition of a hypothesis & basic Steps in the formulation of hypotheses for your research.

Research works, in fact, are designed to verify the hypothesis. Therefore, a researcher, of course, would understand the meaning and nature of the hypothesis in order to formulate a hypothesis and then test the hypothesis.

What is Hypothesis in Research?

A hypothesis is a tentative statement of a proposition that the researcher seeks to prove. It’s basically a concrete generalization. Of course, this generalization requires essential characteristics that pertain to an entire class of phenomena.

When a theory is stated as a testable proposition formally and subjects to empirical verification we can define it as a hypothesis. Researchers make a hypothesis on the basis of some earlier theories and some rationale that is generally accepted as true. The hypothesis test finally will decide whether it is true or rejected.

So, to clarify a hypothesis is a statement about the relationship between two or more variables. The researcher set out the variables to prove or disprove. Hypothesis essentially includes three elements. For example-

• Relationship between variables.

Example of Hypothesis

• Rewards increase reading achievements
• Rewards decrease reading achievements
• Or rewards have no effect on reading achievements

In the above examples- variables are- Rewards & Achievements.

Steps in Formulation of Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a tentative assumption drawn from practical knowledge or theory. A hypothesis is used as a guide in the inquiry of other facts or theories that a researcher does not know. However, the formulation of the hypothesis is one of the most difficult steps in the entire scientific research process.

Therefore, in this regard, we intend to point out the basic steps in the formulation of a hypothesis. We are pretty sure that this guideline will be helpful in your research work.

1. Define Variables

At first, with a view to formulating a hypothesis, you must define your variables. What do you want to test? Will you test that rewards increase reading achievement? Or do rewards decrease reading achievement? Whatever your goals are, they need to be clearly defined, quantifiable, and measurable. This will provide you with a clear idea of what to follow to achieve results.

2. Study In-Depth the Variables

If we do think that your variables are Rewards & Achievements, then you need to intense study how rewards increase reading achievements? An in-depth study, rigorous questions, and data of rewards increase reading achievements will make you able to confirm your hypothesis. Specify dependent and independent variables.

3. Specify the Nature of the Relationship

Then, identify what relationship there exist between the variables. What variable influences the other? That is what is the dependent variable and what is the independent variable? How do Rewards impact achievements? If reward plays a key role in reading achievements, then reward is the independent variable.

4. Identify Study Population

The population in research means the entire group of individuals is going to study. If you want to test how rewards increase reading achievements in the United Kingdom, you need not study the whole population of the United Kingdom. Because the total population does not involve in reading achievements. Therefore, the researcher must identify the study population.

5. Make Sure Variables are Testable

Variables in your hypothesis must be testable. Otherwise, the hypothesis would be worthless. Because your research study must accept or reject a variable. So, variables you must need to test. Testable variables can only be accepted or rejected. Moreover, the sole aim of a research hypothesis is to test variables in the long run.

How to Choose a Research Design?

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How to Write a Hypothesis? Types and Examples 

All research studies involve the use of the scientific method, which is a mathematical and experimental technique used to conduct experiments by developing and testing a hypothesis or a prediction about an outcome. Simply put, a hypothesis is a suggested solution to a problem. It includes elements that are expressed in terms of relationships with each other to explain a condition or an assumption that hasn’t been verified using facts. 1 The typical steps in a scientific method include developing such a hypothesis, testing it through various methods, and then modifying it based on the outcomes of the experiments.  

A research hypothesis can be defined as a specific, testable prediction about the anticipated results of a study. 2 Hypotheses help guide the research process and supplement the aim of the study. After several rounds of testing, hypotheses can help develop scientific theories. 3 Hypotheses are often written as if-then statements. 

Here are two hypothesis examples: 

Dandelions growing in nitrogen-rich soils for two weeks develop larger leaves than those in nitrogen-poor soils because nitrogen stimulates vegetative growth. 4  

If a company offers flexible work hours, then their employees will be happier at work. 5  

Table of Contents

• What is a hypothesis? 
• Types of hypotheses 
• Characteristics of a hypothesis 
• Functions of a hypothesis 
• How to write a hypothesis 
• Hypothesis examples 
• Frequently asked questions 

What is a hypothesis?

A hypothesis expresses an expected relationship between variables in a study and is developed before conducting any research. Hypotheses are not opinions but rather are expected relationships based on facts and observations. They help support scientific research and expand existing knowledge. An incorrectly formulated hypothesis can affect the entire experiment leading to errors in the results so it’s important to know how to formulate a hypothesis and develop it carefully.

A few sources of a hypothesis include observations from prior studies, current research and experiences, competitors, scientific theories, and general conditions that can influence people. Figure 1 depicts the different steps in a research design and shows where exactly in the process a hypothesis is developed. 4  

There are seven different types of hypotheses—simple, complex, directional, nondirectional, associative and causal, null, and alternative. 

Types of hypotheses

The seven types of hypotheses are listed below: 5 , 6,7  

• Simple : Predicts the relationship between a single dependent variable and a single independent variable. 

Example: Exercising in the morning every day will increase your productivity.  

• Complex : Predicts the relationship between two or more variables. 

Example: Spending three hours or more on social media daily will negatively affect children’s mental health and productivity, more than that of adults.  

• Directional : Specifies the expected direction to be followed and uses terms like increase, decrease, positive, negative, more, or less. 

Example: The inclusion of intervention X decreases infant mortality compared to the original treatment.  

• Non-directional : Does not predict the exact direction, nature, or magnitude of the relationship between two variables but rather states the existence of a relationship. This hypothesis may be used when there is no underlying theory or if findings contradict prior research. 

Example: Cats and dogs differ in the amount of affection they express.  

• Associative and causal : An associative hypothesis suggests an interdependency between variables, that is, how a change in one variable changes the other.  

Example: There is a positive association between physical activity levels and overall health.  

A causal hypothesis, on the other hand, expresses a cause-and-effect association between variables. 

Example: Long-term alcohol use causes liver damage.  

• Null : Claims that the original hypothesis is false by showing that there is no relationship between the variables. 

Example: Sleep duration does not have any effect on productivity.  

• Alternative : States the opposite of the null hypothesis, that is, a relationship exists between two variables. 

Example: Sleep duration affects productivity.  

Characteristics of a hypothesis

So, what makes a good hypothesis? Here are some important characteristics of a hypothesis. 8,9  

• Testable : You must be able to test the hypothesis using scientific methods to either accept or reject the prediction. 
• Falsifiable : It should be possible to collect data that reject rather than support the hypothesis. 
• Logical : Hypotheses shouldn’t be a random guess but rather should be based on previous theories, observations, prior research, and logical reasoning. 
• Positive : The hypothesis statement about the existence of an association should be positive, that is, it should not suggest that an association does not exist. Therefore, the language used and knowing how to phrase a hypothesis is very important. 
• Clear and accurate : The language used should be easily comprehensible and use correct terminology. 
• Relevant : The hypothesis should be relevant and specific to the research question. 
• Structure : Should include all the elements that make a good hypothesis: variables, relationship, and outcome. 

Functions of a hypothesis

The following list mentions some important functions of a hypothesis: 1  

• Maintains the direction and progress of the research. 
• Expresses the important assumptions underlying the proposition in a single statement. 
• Establishes a suitable context for researchers to begin their investigation and for readers who are referring to the final report. 
• Provides an explanation for the occurrence of a specific phenomenon. 
• Ensures selection of appropriate and accurate facts necessary and relevant to the research subject. 

To summarize, a hypothesis provides the conceptual elements that complete the known data, conceptual relationships that systematize unordered elements, and conceptual meanings and interpretations that explain the unknown phenomena. 1  

How to write a hypothesis

Listed below are the main steps explaining how to write a hypothesis. 2,4,5  

• Make an observation and identify variables : Observe the subject in question and try to recognize a pattern or a relationship between the variables involved. This step provides essential background information to begin your research.  

For example, if you notice that an office’s vending machine frequently runs out of a specific snack, you may predict that more people in the office choose that snack over another. 

• Identify the main research question : After identifying a subject and recognizing a pattern, the next step is to ask a question that your hypothesis will answer.  

For example, after observing employees’ break times at work, you could ask “why do more employees take breaks in the morning rather than in the afternoon?” 

• Conduct some preliminary research to ensure originality and novelty : Your initial answer, which is your hypothesis, to the question is based on some pre-existing information about the subject. However, to ensure that your hypothesis has not been asked before or that it has been asked but rejected by other researchers you would need to gather additional information.  

For example, based on your observations you might state a hypothesis that employees work more efficiently when the air conditioning in the office is set at a lower temperature. However, during your preliminary research you find that this hypothesis was proven incorrect by a prior study. 

• Develop a general statement : After your preliminary research has confirmed the originality of your proposed answer, draft a general statement that includes all variables, subjects, and predicted outcome. The statement could be if/then or declarative.  
• Finalize the hypothesis statement : Use the PICOT model, which clarifies how to word a hypothesis effectively, when finalizing the statement. This model lists the important components required to write a hypothesis. 

P opulation: The specific group or individual who is the main subject of the research 

I nterest: The main concern of the study/research question 

C omparison: The main alternative group 

O utcome: The expected results  

T ime: Duration of the experiment 

Once you’ve finalized your hypothesis statement you would need to conduct experiments to test whether the hypothesis is true or false. 

Hypothesis examples

The following table provides examples of different types of hypotheses. 10 ,11  

Key takeaways  

Here’s a summary of all the key points discussed in this article about how to write a hypothesis. 

• A hypothesis is an assumption about an association between variables made based on limited evidence, which should be tested. 
• A hypothesis has four parts—the research question, independent variable, dependent variable, and the proposed relationship between the variables.   
• The statement should be clear, concise, testable, logical, and falsifiable. 
• There are seven types of hypotheses—simple, complex, directional, non-directional, associative and causal, null, and alternative. 
• A hypothesis provides a focus and direction for the research to progress. 
• A hypothesis plays an important role in the scientific method by helping to create an appropriate experimental design. 

Frequently asked questions

Hypotheses and research questions have different objectives and structure. The following table lists some major differences between the two. 9  

Here are a few examples to differentiate between a research question and hypothesis. 

Yes, here’s a simple checklist to help you gauge the effectiveness of your hypothesis. 9   1. When writing a hypothesis statement, check if it:  2. Predicts the relationship between the stated variables and the expected outcome.  3. Uses simple and concise language and is not wordy.  4. Does not assume readers’ knowledge about the subject.  5. Has observable, falsifiable, and testable results. 

As mentioned earlier in this article, a hypothesis is an assumption or prediction about an association between variables based on observations and simple evidence. These statements are usually generic. Research objectives, on the other hand, are more specific and dictated by hypotheses. The same hypothesis can be tested using different methods and the research objectives could be different in each case.     For example, Louis Pasteur observed that food lasts longer at higher altitudes, reasoned that it could be because the air at higher altitudes is cleaner (with fewer or no germs), and tested the hypothesis by exposing food to air cleaned in the laboratory. 12 Thus, a hypothesis is predictive—if the reasoning is correct, X will lead to Y—and research objectives are developed to test these predictions. 

Null hypothesis testing is a method to decide between two assumptions or predictions between variables (null and alternative hypotheses) in a statistical relationship in a sample. The null hypothesis, denoted as H 0 , claims that no relationship exists between variables in a population and any relationship in the sample reflects a sampling error or occurrence by chance. The alternative hypothesis, denoted as H 1 , claims that there is a relationship in the population. In every study, researchers need to decide whether the relationship in a sample occurred by chance or reflects a relationship in the population. This is done by hypothesis testing using the following steps: 13   1. Assume that the null hypothesis is true.  2. Determine how likely the sample relationship would be if the null hypothesis were true. This probability is called the p value.  3. If the sample relationship would be extremely unlikely, reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. If the relationship would not be unlikely, accept the null hypothesis. 

To summarize, researchers should know how to write a good hypothesis to ensure that their research progresses in the required direction. A hypothesis is a testable prediction about any behavior or relationship between variables, usually based on facts and observation, and states an expected outcome.  

We hope this article has provided you with essential insight into the different types of hypotheses and their functions so that you can use them appropriately in your next research project. 

References  

• Dalen, DVV. The function of hypotheses in research. Proquest website. Accessed April 8, 2024. https://www.proquest.com/docview/1437933010?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true&sourcetype=Scholarly%20Journals&imgSeq=1  
• McLeod S. Research hypothesis in psychology: Types & examples. SimplyPsychology website. Updated December 13, 2023. Accessed April 9, 2024. https://www.simplypsychology.org/what-is-a-hypotheses.html  
• Scientific method. Britannica website. Updated March 14, 2024. Accessed April 9, 2024. https://www.britannica.com/science/scientific-method  
• The hypothesis in science writing. Accessed April 10, 2024. https://berks.psu.edu/sites/berks/files/campus/HypothesisHandout_Final.pdf  
• How to develop a hypothesis (with elements, types, and examples). Indeed.com website. Updated February 3, 2023. Accessed April 10, 2024. https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/career-development/how-to-write-a-hypothesis  
• Types of research hypotheses. Excelsior online writing lab. Accessed April 11, 2024. https://owl.excelsior.edu/research/research-hypotheses/types-of-research-hypotheses/  
• What is a research hypothesis: how to write it, types, and examples. Researcher.life website. Published February 8, 2023. Accessed April 11, 2024. https://researcher.life/blog/article/how-to-write-a-research-hypothesis-definition-types-examples/  
• Developing a hypothesis. Pressbooks website. Accessed April 12, 2024. https://opentext.wsu.edu/carriecuttler/chapter/developing-a-hypothesis/  
• What is and how to write a good hypothesis in research. Elsevier author services website. Accessed April 12, 2024. https://scientific-publishing.webshop.elsevier.com/manuscript-preparation/what-how-write-good-hypothesis-research/  
• How to write a great hypothesis. Verywellmind website. Updated March 12, 2023. Accessed April 13, 2024. https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-hypothesis-2795239  
• 15 Hypothesis examples. Helpfulprofessor.com Published September 8, 2023. Accessed March 14, 2024. https://helpfulprofessor.com/hypothesis-examples/ 
• Editage insights. What is the interconnectivity between research objectives and hypothesis? Published February 24, 2021. Accessed April 13, 2024. https://www.editage.com/insights/what-is-the-interconnectivity-between-research-objectives-and-hypothesis  
• Understanding null hypothesis testing. BCCampus open publishing. Accessed April 16, 2024. https://opentextbc.ca/researchmethods/chapter/understanding-null-hypothesis-testing/#:~:text=In%20null%20hypothesis%20testing%2C%20this,said%20to%20be%20statistically%20significant  

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7 Steps to Formulate a Strong A/B Testing Hypothesis

Hypothesis is defined as “A tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences.” When it comes to landing page optimization, the test hypothesis is the assumption you want to test against what you already have. In order to increase the probability of success of your A/B tests, you need to form a strong hypothesis through researching and observation.

Expert Marketers don’t go about testing random ideas hoping to stumble upon a working solution. Instead, they use solid test hypothesis.

A hypothesis provides a solid and targeted A/B testing roadmap that will generate lifts and provide vital lessons. Thus, every test should start with a hypothesis that you are trying to prove or disapprove. So formulating a hypothesis is the quicker, more accurate and less expensive way of solving a problem.

Here are 7 steps to take to formulate a strong A/B testing hypothesis

1. define your problem.

 Defining your problem is the first thing that needs to be done. What is it that you want to test or solve? Is it to double your sales or to increase the number of opt-ins? Whatever your goals are, they need to be clearly defined, quantifiable, and measurable. This should give you a clear idea of what your new design should solve including the process that will be followed to achieve the results.

2. Find out the reasons behind the numbers

Now that you have defined your problem and you have a clear picture of what it is you want to achieve, the next thing that follows is an in-depth statistical analysis of the current problem. This can be equated to sharpening the ax. Basically, you want to take as much time as possible to learn the reasons behind your numbers.

You won’t be able to form an accurate hypothesis without studying what is happening in the website where you want to test your A/B test. Now that you are already looking for better variables to improve your conversion rates, it is only logical that you find the reasons that brought you to this current situation. Why are you experiencing high bounce rate? Why aren’t you seeing more conversions? Why are most of your customers failing to complete the payment process? These are obviously some of the reasons that may push you to improve your website.

The only way to discover areas of improvement in your website is to study your target market. You also need to get customer feedback through comments, social media, surveys and email.

3. Talk to your visitors

It is important to get real feedback from your visitors. One way is to use surveys—both entry surveys and exit surveys that are used to discover your visitor’s objectives and determine whether their goals have been met respectively this is aimed at understanding what they want or what their desires are.

Knowing the reasons behind their decisions and actions is the most important part of the survey. Therefore, do not hesitate to ask them to give reasons for their actions in the survey. For instance, you can place an exit survey at the end of a buying process to ask them why they bought your product. You could also place an exit survey immediately they abandoning a buying process to understand why they did so.

You could also use analytics tools to gather quantitative data such as location, devices used, bounce rates and number of visitors and so on. In other words, both surveys and analytics tools can complement each other when it comes to gathering information about the customer.

4. Use segmentation to get actionable data

In statistics, averages don’t tell you the whole story. Segments do, and that is why segmentation is an important step in the formulation of hypothesis. For example, an experiment may show that a certain product is not performing well, but upon further analysis, it may be discovered that majority of people who buy the product are women aged between 18 and 29 years. Upon further investigation, it may turn out that ads for the product were being targeted to the general population.  So when you do segmentation, it may eventually occur to you that you should concentrate your marketing efforts on the women who fall in the 18-29 age bracket. In other words, segmentation gives you actionable data, which would otherwise be useless without it. There are many approaches to segmentation. Examples include:

Source segmentation: involve separating the visitors who come to your site based on their sources e.g desktop or mobile, android or iOS, email or social media. Find all the metrics associated with all these segments such as bounce rates, number of visitors, conversion rates and regions.

Behavioral segmentation : See what elements your customers focus most in your website. These days there are eye-tracking technologies that make it possible to study the elements that attract the most attention. Find out who are the 20% of your segment that bring the 80% of revenue (refer to  Pareto principle ). Another way one can gather data is through usability testing where one observes the customer behavior and records the observations.

Outcome segmentation: here, you focus on different types of products that have been purchased, the number of people who did not complete purchase, where most of your orders are coming from etc.

In short, the aim of segmentation is to find out where your most profitable segment comes from and focus your efforts on that segment.

5. Articulate a Hypothesis for your test

Now that you have gathered enough evidence to show what or where the problems is, it is time to state why you think the problem occurs.

Your hypothesis should have the following characteristics:

• It is goal oriented—it clearly states what needs to be accomplished
• It can be tested—it can easily be implemented
• It is insightful—looking at the hypothesis, one should learn something about the problem.

An example of hypothesis

Problem: less than 5% of visitors buy the mobile app

Hypothesis: The text in the CTA button does not provide a clear message to the customer. The text needs to be changed from “Get it” to “Download you app now”.

6. Test substantial variations based on your Hypothesis

We can call this the brainstorming stage. After determining the problem and articulating a hypothesis. The next thing that follows is coming up with substantial variations based on your hypothesis.  Taking the above example, the hypothesis states that “The text in the CTA button does not provide a clear message to the customer.” The substantial variations could include things like changing the color of the button, changing position of the CTA on the landing page, changing the wordings, creating different icon etc. The substantial variations of your hypothesis are meant to bring you closer to the solution as quickly as possible and provide you with insights.

7. Analyze results to validate your hypothesis and Repeat

Once you’ve managed to articulate your hypotheses and test substantial variations, it’s time to analyze results to validate your hypothesis. You need to have sufficient test results in order to analyze and compare. When you are analyzing your tests with the aim of implementing solutions, you should bear in mind that revenue is the ultimate measurement of improvement. Customer feedback and analytics are tools you can use. You should look at the data your customers have left to help you choose the elements that need to be analyzed. The various elements you could test include:

• CTAs—colors, texts, size
• Images—placement size
• Headlines—size, length, style, tone text color
• Testimonials—placement, number, length
• Videos—number, with or without videos
• Forms—files type, color, number of fields
• Shopping cart—icon, text, number of steps
• Copywriting—long text or short, style, tone

After learning from your results, you should start the process all over because there is always room for improvement. In marketing, you never hit the perfect solution and even there is no way to know that you have reached perfection. Constant improvement is the name of the game in this field. So, it is a continuous process.

About the Author:

Steven Sanchez has been actively involved in SEO and Internet marketing since 1999. Steven’s knowledge and experience have made him one of the most respected and referenced SEO’s in the industry and his passion for innovation and growth has led his company, Internet Marketing Invesp, to become one of the world’s leading online marketing firms.

What is an example of a hypothesis for AB testing?

In the context of A/B testing, a hypothesis is an educated guess about what changes will improve a particular metric on your website. For instance, you might hypothesize that “Changing the call-to-action button from green to red on our product page will increase the click-through rate by 15%.” This hypothesis is based on your understanding of visitor behavior, data science, and the performance of your existing site. The effectiveness of the hypothesis is then tested via A/B or split testing.

What is null and alternative hypothesis in AB testing?

In A/B testing, the null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference between the performance of version A (the control) and version B (the variant). For example, “Changing the call-to-action button color will not have an impact on the click-through rate.” The alternative hypothesis, on the other hand, posits that there is a significant difference. A statistical analysis is then performed, using a testing tool and machine learning if available, to determine if the null hypothesis can be rejected based on user behavior and the results of the multivariate testing.

How do you validate an AB test?

To validate an A/B test, you need to collect and analyze data to see if the changes made in the variant (B) have led to a significant improvement over the control (A). This involves determining your sample size, running the test until you have sufficient data, and then using statistical analysis to determine if there’s a significant difference. This process is part of your conversion rate optimization program, and a statistically significant result provides an excellent starting point to validate your proposed solution.

How do you write a hypothesis test?

A hypothesis for a test is written as a statement that predicts a potential outcome. The statement should specify the change being tested, the metric it is expected to impact, and the anticipated result. For example, “Increasing the font size of product prices on our website will increase user engagement by 10%.” This hypothesis is then validated through A/B testing. It’s also helpful to supplement A/B tests with other forms of data gathering, such as user testing or customer surveys, to understand why certain changes may or may not be effective.

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