hypothesis of flood in kzn

Why are floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal so devastating? Urban planning expert explains

Full Professor, University of KwaZulu-Natal

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Hope Magidimisha-Chipungu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

University of Kwa-Zulu Natal provides funding as a partner of The Conversation AFRICA.

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The devastation caused by the recent floods in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa demonstrates again that the country is not moving fast enough to adopt appropriate urban planning. It should be integrating risk assessment and management in the design and development of cities. This is becoming more urgent as the frequency of floods increases.

Most South African cities were built a long time ago, before climate change was predicted. KwaZulu-Natal experienced flooding in July 2016, May 2017, October 2017, March 2019, April 2019, November 2019, November 2020, April 2023, June 2023, and now in January 2024. South Africa has a comprehensive national climate change adaptation strategy , and the authorities are aware of flood damage, but are not able to keep up with the repairs.

I recently edited a book on inclusive cities in which I write about the way South Africa has dealt with natural disasters. There is a lack of risk-informed urban planning. This is an approach to designing and developing urban areas with risk in mind. It aims to create resilient cities that can withstand and adapt to various hazards and challenges, such as natural disasters, climate change and social vulnerabilities.

Cities are not resilient

The devastation caused by the recent floods indicates lack of resilience and increasing social vulnerabilities. More than 45 people have died in the last two months ; more than 250 homes have been severely damaged. Severe flooding and landslides caused by heavy rainfall caused the deaths of at least 459 people in April 2022 . These floods displaced over 40,000 people, destroyed over 12,000 houses, and left 45,000 people temporarily unemployed.

The cost of infrastructure and business losses amounted to about US$2 billion. It was one of the worst flooding events in KwaZulu-Natal’s recorded history and eThekwini (Durban) was the worst affected city in the province.

Climate change means more floods are coming

Studies and scientific evidence have pointed to one significant factor contributing to the occurrence of severe flooding: climate change. 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded . The concentration of carbon emissions in the atmosphere has resulted in drastic shifts in weather patterns, leading to increased rainfall in places and subsequent floods.

Read more: South African floods wreaked havoc because people are forced to live in disaster prone areas

In KwaZulu-Natal, the failure to practise risk-informed urban planning has left the province’s roads and buildings, often poorly designed, crumbling. The authorities have failed to maintain drainage systems. They have not put in place flood control measures, such as river channelisation. This is where rivers are dredged, widened and deepened to improve their flow capacity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Flood retention basins, designed to temporarily store excess water during heavy rainfall or flooding events, would also reduce the risk of downstream flooding. Neglecting to put these measures in place contributes to severe flooding and endangers the safety of communities.

Inadequate waste collection and inappropriate disposal of garbage also blocks the drains, worsening the impact of heavy rainfall. Poor drainage systems are clogged with plastic pollution. Robust waste management systems are needed to ensure that water flows properly through these drains.

Read more: How cities can approach redesigning informal settlements after disasters

In some cases, inappropriate land use and the unchecked expansion of urban areas into flood-prone zones have resulted in increased vulnerability to extreme weather. Strong enforcement of land use policies that restrict development in high-risk areas is essential. Municipalities such as the disaster-hit city of eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal must not allow people to build in flood-prone areas, because once people settle in an area it becomes expensive to relocate them.

What are the solutions?

Frequent flooding in KwaZulu-Natal will be the new reality. The province urgently needs a comprehensive approach, one that involves the local community in decision-making around urban planning and climate change mitigation. An inclusive approach would recognise local knowledge and encourage innovative solutions suitable for the area.

Prioritising mixed-use development, density, and the preservation of green spaces in city zoning and land-use regulations is essential. Urban sprawl must be curbed. The government must establish compact, walkable neighbourhoods that are not constructed on floodplains, coastal zones, or low-lying areas. By recognising areas of high risk, the damage caused by flooding can be minimised.

Water-sensitive urban design must be encouraged as soon as possible. This includes green roofs and permeable pavements, which allow water to pass through the surface layer and be stored or infiltrated into the underlying soil layers.

More parks, urban forests and other green spaces must be established in cities and towns. They serve as carbon sinks: places that store carbon dioxide, acting as natural reservoirs, and regulating the balance of greenhouse gases. Wetlands, riparian zones and forests must be preserved because they can act as natural buffers against flooding, absorbing excess water and reducing the impact on nearby urban areas.

Developing an efficient network of stormwater drains, sewers and retention ponds to control the flow of water during heavy rainfall events is vital. This infrastructure should be regularly maintained and updated.

The province needs to move towards climate change adaptation. Public awareness and education campaigns on the importance of flood-resistant measures will foster a sense of responsibility in preventing flooding.

The authorities must collaborate with other cities that face similar problems. Nations like Japan , which efficiently manages natural disasters, offer useful examples we could follow.

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A Critical Analysis of the Impacts of and Responses to the April-May 2022 Floods in KwaZulu-Natal

04 Apr 2023

Working Paper

This paper is an analysis of the April-May 2022 floods that struck the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, centred in the City of eThekwini, which led to the loss of lives and livelihoods, displacement of people, extensive damage to infrastructure and disruption of services.

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Why are floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal so devastating? Urban planning expert explains

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Most South African cities were built a long time ago, before climate change was predicted. KwaZulu-Natal experienced flooding in July 2016, May 2017, October 2017, March 2019, April 2019, November 2019, November 2020, April 2023, June 2023, and now in January 2024. South Africa has a comprehensive national climate change adaptation strategy , and the authorities are aware of flood damage, but are not able to keep up with the repairs.

I recently edited a book on inclusive cities in which I write about the way South Africa has dealt with natural disasters. There is a lack of risk-informed urban planning. This is an approach to designing and developing urban areas with risk in mind. It aims to create resilient cities that can withstand and adapt to various hazards and challenges, such as natural disasters, climate change and social vulnerabilities.

Cities are not resilient

The devastation caused by the recent floods indicates lack of resilience and increasing social vulnerabilities. More than 45 people have died in the last two months ; more than 250 homes have been severely damaged. Severe flooding and landslides caused by heavy rainfall caused the deaths of at least 459 people in April 2022 . These floods displaced over 40 000 people, destroyed over 12 000 houses, and left 45 000 people temporarily unemployed.

The cost of infrastructure and business losses amounted to about US$2-billion. It was one of the worst flooding events in KwaZulu-Natal’s recorded history and eThekwini (Durban) was the worst affected city in the province.

Climate change means more floods are coming

Studies and scientific evidence have pointed to one significant factor contributing to the occurrence of severe flooding: climate change. 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded . The concentration of carbon emissions in the atmosphere has resulted in drastic shifts in weather patterns, leading to increased rainfall in places and subsequent floods.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the failure to practise risk-informed urban planning has left the province’s roads and buildings, often poorly designed, crumbling. The authorities have failed to maintain drainage systems. They have not put in place flood control measures, such as river channelisation. This is where rivers are dredged, widened and deepened to improve their flow capacity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Flood retention basins, designed to temporarily store excess water during heavy rainfall or flooding events, would also reduce the risk of downstream flooding. Neglecting to put these measures in place contributes to severe flooding and endangers the safety of communities.

Inadequate waste collection and inappropriate disposal of garbage also blocks the drains, worsening the impact of heavy rainfall. Poor drainage systems are clogged with plastic pollution. Robust waste management systems are needed to ensure that water flows properly through these drains.

In some cases, inappropriate land use and the unchecked expansion of urban areas into flood-prone zones have resulted in increased vulnerability to extreme weather. Strong enforcement of land use policies that restrict development in high-risk areas is essential. Municipalities such as the disaster-hit city of eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal must not allow people to build in flood-prone areas, because once people settle in an area it becomes expensive to relocate them.

What are the solutions?

Frequent flooding in KwaZulu-Natal will be the new reality. The province urgently needs a comprehensive approach, one that involves the local community in decision-making around urban planning and climate change mitigation. An inclusive approach would recognise local knowledge and encourage innovative solutions suitable for the area.

Prioritising mixed-use development, density, and the preservation of green spaces in city zoning and land-use regulations is essential. Urban sprawl must be curbed. The government must establish compact, walkable neighbourhoods that are not constructed on floodplains, coastal zones, or low-lying areas. By recognising areas of high risk, the damage caused by flooding can be minimised.

Water-sensitive urban design must be encouraged as soon as possible. This includes green roofs and permeable pavements, which allow water to pass through the surface layer and be stored or infiltrated into the underlying soil layers.

More parks, urban forests and other green spaces must be established in cities and towns. They serve as carbon sinks: places that store carbon dioxide, acting as natural reservoirs, and regulating the balance of greenhouse gases. Wetlands, riparian zones and forests must be preserved because they can act as natural buffers against flooding, absorbing excess water and reducing the impact on nearby urban areas.

Developing an efficient network of stormwater drains, sewers and retention ponds to control the flow of water during heavy rainfall events is vital. This infrastructure should be regularly maintained and updated.

The province needs to move towards climate change adaptation. Public awareness and education campaigns on the importance of flood-resistant measures will foster a sense of responsibility in preventing flooding.

The authorities must collaborate with other cities that face similar problems. Nations like Japan , which efficiently manages natural disasters, offer useful examples we could follow.

Written by Hope Magidimisha-Chipungu , Full Professor, University of KwaZulu-Natal

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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Explained: What is causing KZN floods

At least 64 people have lost their lives over the festive period in kwazulu-natal following inclement weather in the province. but what is the cause - climate change spatial planning or a lack thereof researcher mukhove singo weighs in..

• KZN flooding

Picture: Reaction Unit

Flood waters ravage the streets of KZN, 12/4/2022 – Photo: Corne van Zyl / TheSouthAfrican

Were the KZN floods caused by climate change? The answer is complicated…

Weather records held for 60 years tumbled this week, during the KZN floods – but linking this event to climate change comes with caveats.

The KZN floods have claimed an almighty death toll, with upwards of 45 people killed by the extreme weather conditions. Gushing torrents of water have destroyed homes and public infrastructure, and weather records have been shattered across the province. But were these weather conditions a direct result of climate change?

Severity of KZN floods raises serious questions

The SA Weather Service (SAWS) made a statement to the press earlier on Tuesday. Surveying the widespread damage caused by the KZN floods, the group revealed that more rain is forecast to make landfall during the Easter weekend. However, it won’t match the scale of the downpours witnessed in the past 48 hours.

The horrifying images of cars being swept away and buildings crumbling have led many to ask the fundamental question of our time: Are these disastrous conditions being caused by climate change? According to SAWS, the answer isn’t so black and white, and there’s no straightforward way to put it.

Did climate change cause the KZN floods?

The agency states that, although the KZN floods cannot be solely blamed on climate change, events LIKE this are happening more often because of it. In other words, global warming IS now intensifying the frequency of our extreme weather patterns – even if it didn’t directly cause the event itself.

We told you the answer would be complicated…

“As weather scientists, we cannot attribute individual weather events occurring on short timescales to longer-term events, occurring over years or decades. However, notwithstanding the above, we can state with confidence that globally all forms of severe and extreme weather are becoming more frequent and more extreme.” “Things like heatwaves, heavy rain, and coastal storm surge events will happen more often. Therefore, events such as the current KZN incident can rightfully be expected to recur in the future and with increasing frequency.” SAWS statement

KwaZulu-Natal weather forecast for Wednesday 13 April

Meanwhile, SAWS have confirmed that there will be more weather warnings in place for KZN overnight. The good news, however, is that these alerts will drop down from Level 9 to Level 6 – and conditions are set to improve.

• Southern and Eastern parts of KZN – from Port Shepstone to Durban – will face more rain this evening.
• More downpours are also expected in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, Free State, Gauteng, and Eastern Cape.
• Parts of the east coast between Port St. John’s and Durban face the possibility of Level 6 weather warnings for more rainfall overnight.
• On Wednesday, further showers are expected in the aforementioned regions.
• The good news is that the rain DOES ease off tomorrow, and NO weather warnings are in place for 13 April 2022.

Tonight and tomorrows Rainfall and Alerts (12-13 April 2022). pic.twitter.com/4azYePajfU — SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) April 12, 2022

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A new flood chronology for KwaZulu-Natal (1836-2022): The April 2022 Durban floods in historical context

• School of Applied Sciences
• Centre for Earth Observation Science
• Past Human and Environment Dynamics Research and Enterprise Group

Research output : Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Bibliographical note

• flood hazards
• rainfall records
• documentary evidence
• KwaZulu-Natal

Access to Document

• 10.1080/03736245.2023.2193758
• REVISED_CLEAN_Dbn_flood_paper_for_SAGJ Accepted author manuscript, 2.5 MB Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

Other files and links

• Link to publication in Scopus

Fingerprint

• KwaZulu-Natal Arts & Humanities 100%
• Chronology Arts & Humanities 99%
• chronology Earth & Environmental Sciences 66%
• Flooding Arts & Humanities 62%
• Historical Context Arts & Humanities 57%
• flooding Earth & Environmental Sciences 37%
• Weather Arts & Humanities 24%
• weather Earth & Environmental Sciences 16%

T1 - A new flood chronology for KwaZulu-Natal (1836-2022)

T2 - The April 2022 Durban floods in historical context

AU - Grab, Stefan

AU - Nash, David

N1 - Funding Information: The research that underpinned the identification of nineteenth-century flood events in KwaZulu-Natal was funded by Leverhulme Trust Research Project Grant number F/00 504/D. Thanks to our colleagues Georgina Endfield, Jørgen Klein and Kathleen Pribyl who worked on American, Norwegian and German mission sources, respectively, as part of this project. We thank the two anonymous reviewers who provided constructive inputs. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Society of South African Geographers.

PY - 2023/4/10

Y1 - 2023/4/10

N2 - In April 2022, flooding and associated geohazards caused major loss of life and extensive damage in the greater Durban region and large areas of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coastal zone. Heavy rainfall that triggered the flooding and mass movement events was reported in national and international media as having ‘smashed weather records’. However, no systematic and up-to-date flood record exists for KZN to allow the April 2022 floods to be viewed within their full historical context. This study presents an historical geographic account of flooding in KZN, with a particular focus on the greater Durban region. The flood record expands upon available databases held by the South African Weather Service, drawing on missionary accounts, newspapers and personal diaries to identify all significant flood events in KZN since the mid-nineteenth century. We document 53 significant flood events from 1850-1899 (average ~1.1 per annum) and 210 from 1900-2022 (average ~1.7 per annum). Within the limits of our data, we suggest that the frequency of flooding in Durban has likely doubled over the last century. Our research confirms that the April 2022 floods were likely the most catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KZN, in collective terms of lives lost and overall economic impact.

AB - In April 2022, flooding and associated geohazards caused major loss of life and extensive damage in the greater Durban region and large areas of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coastal zone. Heavy rainfall that triggered the flooding and mass movement events was reported in national and international media as having ‘smashed weather records’. However, no systematic and up-to-date flood record exists for KZN to allow the April 2022 floods to be viewed within their full historical context. This study presents an historical geographic account of flooding in KZN, with a particular focus on the greater Durban region. The flood record expands upon available databases held by the South African Weather Service, drawing on missionary accounts, newspapers and personal diaries to identify all significant flood events in KZN since the mid-nineteenth century. We document 53 significant flood events from 1850-1899 (average ~1.1 per annum) and 210 from 1900-2022 (average ~1.7 per annum). Within the limits of our data, we suggest that the frequency of flooding in Durban has likely doubled over the last century. Our research confirms that the April 2022 floods were likely the most catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KZN, in collective terms of lives lost and overall economic impact.

KW - Flooding

KW - flood hazards

KW - rainfall records

KW - documentary evidence

KW - KwaZulu-Natal

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85152431949&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/03736245.2023.2193758

DO - 10.1080/03736245.2023.2193758

M3 - Article

SN - 0373-6245

JO - South African Geographical Journal

JF - South African Geographical Journal

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Flooding trends and their impacts on coastal communities of Western Cape Province, South Africa

• Published: 25 June 2021
• Volume 87 , pages 453–468, ( 2022 )

Cite this article

• Kaitano Dube   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7482-3945 1 ,
• Godwell Nhamo 2 &
• David Chikodzi 2  

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Climate change-induced extreme weather events have been at their worst increase in the past decade (2010–2020) across Africa and globally. This has proved disruptive to global socio-economic activities. One of the challenges that has been faced in this regard is the increased coastal flooding of cities. This study examined the trends and impacts of coastal flooding in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Making use of archival climate data and primary data from key informants and field observations, it emerged that there is a statistically significant increase in the frequency of flooding and consequent human and economic losses from such in the coastal cities of the province. Flooding in urban areas of the Western Cape is a factor of human and natural factors ranging from extreme rainfall, usually caused by persistent cut off-lows, midlatitude cyclones, cold fronts and intense storms. Such floods become compounded by poor drainage caused by vegetative overgrowth on waterways and land pollution that can be traced to poor drainage maintenance. Clogging of waterways and drainage systems enhances the risk of flooding. Increased urbanisation, overpopulation in some areas and non-adherence to environmental laws results in both the affluent and poor settling on vulnerable ecosystems. These include coastal areas, estuaries, and waterways, and this worsens the risk of flooding. The study recommends a comprehensive approach to deal with factors that increase the risk of flooding as informed by the provisions of both the Sustainable Development Goals framework and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 in a bid to de-risking human settlement in South Africa.

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Introduction

The world over, many people are resident in coastal areas. The romantic connection between humanity and coastal communities has a long history dating back to the pre-civilisation era. According to Hallegatte et al. ( 2013 ), coastal cities are witnessing an increase in the frequency, intensity and impact of coastal flooding. The cost of flooding can be attributed to several factors such as rapid urbanisation, the increased construction and installation of other assets along the coastal line and climate change (Amoako & Frimpong Boamah, 2015 ; Dhiman et al., 2019 ). Chan ( 2018 ) argue that hydrological hazards faced by coastal cities emanate from a combination of factors such as uncontrolled urban development, climate change, and sea level rise.

Climate change has ushered in a new era of challenges for coastal towns and cities. These areas experience nature’s backlash in the form of intense rainfall, sea level rise, in some instances, tropical cyclones and increasing tidal activity and storm surges (Dube et al., 2020a , 2020b ). The increasing incidence of extreme weather events is worrying as it presents complex challenges for coastal communities' socio-economic development. According to Ogie et al. ( 2018 ), critical coastal infrastructure such as pumps, flood gates, and embankments are particularly vulnerable to increased floods. In addition, transport networks remain vulnerable to coastal flooding (Duy et al., 2019 ). This is likely to threaten the achievement of the global inclusive Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are set to be achieved in 2030 (United Nations, 2015 ).

There is, therefore, a growing consensus and worry that coastal areas are increasingly becoming global hotspots for climate change-induced extreme weather disasters (Chan et al., 2018 ). Balica et al. ( 2012 ) indicate the need to enhance understanding of global vulnerability by explicitly focusing on coastal flooding, which is becoming more common and problematic across the world. Regardless of coastal flooding's recognition as a significant challenge to most areas, the knowledge of the actual extent of climate change risk to coastal areas remains a challenge to most areas in Africa (Kithiia, 2011 ). As a consequence, addressing flood resilience in that context is problematic. According to Handayani et al. ( 2019 ), resilience-building must be a key focus in ensuring coastal areas’ sustainability in the wake of climate change. In light of this call, this study examines and documents the trends and impacts of flooding in the coastal province of Western Cape, South Africa. Although the principal aim of the study is to examine trends and impact of floods in the Western Cape province in general, the main focus will be on urban areas where the greatest socio-econimic impacts occur. Two critical research questions are raised: (1) What has been the long-term flood occurrence in the Western Cape province? (2) What has been the socio-economic impact of these floods on the Western Cape province?.

Literature survey

Extreme weather events remain among the global challenges that both inland and coastal communities must contend with in the quest to ensure sustainable development. Apart from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on global economies in 2020 (Nhamo et al., 2020 ), climate change is a wicked problem that the world must battle with going forward if development target aspirations are to be met. The challenge of extreme weather events is particularly pronounced and felt by most developing countries, which still lack the means for adaptation or maladapt (Leal Filho, 2018 , 2019 ; Mirza, 2003 ). In most cases, there is a clear link between communities’ income levels and adaptive capacity. By nature, adaptation requires that nations and states invest more resources into climate change resilience initiatives. Experience has often shown that such resources are often not available for most developing countries, even for basic needs. Therefore, it is anticipated that climate change will likely worsen marginalised communities’ poverty levels due to the impacts pf extreme weather events and costs associated with the damage.

One of the impacts of extreme weather events that has caused challenges for development agencies and planners is the issue of flooding in coastal urban spaces. Besides flooding (a process of submerging of land that is usual dry by overflowing water), coastal communities must battle with other climate change induced challenges such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, ocean pollution, rising sea surface temperature, coral bleaching and severe droughts (IPCC, 2019 ). These coastal challenges have disturbed coastal communities' lives and livelihoods with far-reaching implications for inland communities, which often depends on coastal areas for recreation, food, and other critical supplies. This presents severe challenges for coastal urban communities in Sub-Saharan Africa, where coastal areas are also battling the challenges caused by rapid urbanisation (Cian et al., 2019 ; Dodman et al., 2017 ).

Cities and communities in Southern and Eastern Africa have not been spared from climate change-related hazards, with many cities battling flooding. A study by Braccio ( 2014 ) reveals that in Maputo, a coastal city in Mozambique, there have been increasing incidences of flooding due to the compounded impact of rising sea levels and intense rainfall activity attributed to climate change. As Kabanda ( 2020 ) finds, Mombasa's vulnerability in Kenya due to rising sea level has placed infrastructure such as roads and buildings under flood threat. On the other hand, the threat of flooding in South Africa’s coastal areas is not well documented, with very few studies focussing on the issue (see, for example, Fitchett et al., 2016 ; Dalu et al., 2018 ). This is also the picture across many other places in Southern Africa. Consequently, there are fears that this will curtail the adoption of adequate adaptation and resilience measures.

Despite fears by communities and preliminary evidence of the catastrophic impact of floods in coastal areas there has been little effort to adequately address this challenge. According to Fitchett et al. ( 2016 ), the challenge of coastal flooding is a real perceived threat by tourism businesses operating in the coastal towns of the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. In another study, Dalu et al. ( 2018 ) found that informal settlements that were located on high slopes, degraded slopes and those close to drainage channels were likely to experience significant damages from flooding. This raises concerns as to the impact of such shocks on vulnerable groups and their capacity to recover and adapt from such threats.

Cape Town, which is located in the Western Cape, has not been immune to flooding. Taylor and Davies ( 2019 ) note that the city of Cape Town, the 10th most populous city in Africa often suffers from the impacts of flooding with a devastating impact on railway lines, parking lanes, roads, and power supply and communication infrastructure. Fears are also rife that these impacts will worsen due to climate change induced sea level rise in the city and other areas surrounding it (Dube et al., 2021 ). Due to increased urbanisation, stormwater is also presenting unique challenges for the City of Cape Town (Taylor, 2019 ). Climate change studies have established that there are also fears that with the increased frequency and incidence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere, there is an anticipation that this will likely see an increased frequency in coastal flooding. Rasmusson and Wallace ( 1983 ), established that the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation is closely linked to sea levels’ variability, which can worsen sea level rise and lead to increased coastal flooding.

Western Cape is one of the most urbanised communities and one of the most unequal societies in South Africa (Gwaze et al., 2018 ). As such the threat of flooding affects different communities differently, with the marginalised communities bearing the brunt of such events. The recent drought in Cape Town exposed the vulnerabilities along these economic and social lines (Enqvist & Ziervogel, 2019 ). Given past experiences, droughts require attention as they often result in mass displacements, which undermines peoples’ livelihood security and infrastructural damage (Dube & Nhamo, 2020a , 2020b ). The devastating impacts of floods were also witnessed in 2019 in Mozambique and other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries in the wake of Tropical Cyclones Idai and Kenneth (Phiri et al., 2020 ). There is therefore a need for a thorough understanding of flood occurrences and associated risks. Such an undertsnading is more critical now than ever before to allow communities to build resilience and adopt risk reduction measures. In as much as single cases of flood events are documented, there is no study in the SADC area that looks at the long-term trends of floods. Hence, this study examines and documents the trends and impact of floods that have occurred in the Western Cape over the last 120 years. The study seeks to understand flood frequency and its impact on the community, development, and society at large.

Research design

The Western Cape Province is an area located on the southernmost part of South Africa and the African continent (Fig.  1 ). It is the same place that is home to the populous city of Cape Town and the iconic Table Mountain (Dube et al., 2020a , 2020b ). The province lies between coastlines from two oceans namely: the Indian Ocean on the east and the Atlantic Ocean on the west coast. The two oceans separate at the Cape Agulhas. The province has a predominantly Mediterranean climate that is typified by warm and mostly dry summers and cold wet winters. The two oceans play a critical role in shaping the climatic and weather patterns of the area. The Western Cape Province has been in the news for the devastating impacts of extreme weather events, particularly the recent drought of 2017/18 that threatened the water supply system of one of South Africa’s most populous cities and tourism destinations (Dube et al., 2020a , 2020b ). The City of Cape Town and other places in the Western Cape Province are well known for their vulnerability to extreme weather events, with the City of Cape Town often dubbed the “Cape of Storms” by many of its citizens. Rouault, ( 2002 ) notes that the Agulhas Current, whose location is the east coast of South Africa, with a bearing on and off the Eastern and Western Cape coast, is partly responsible for severe weather events in the province.

Source : Authors

Location of Western Cape Province in relation to South Africa and Africa

In Western Cape latent heat fluxes often causes low-level advection of moisture, which in turn causes the intensification of storms and tornadoes, causing flooding. Stramma and Lutjeharms ( 1997 ) noted that the Agulhas Current is one of the most intense western current boundaries in the Southern Hemisphere, and White ( 2000 ) observed two such severe storms during 1998/99 summer on the Agulhas Current. According to Mukheibir and Ziervogel ( 2007 ), the March 2003 and April 2005 intense storms and flooding were reported in Cape Town and the Western Cape province.

A case study research approach was adopted for this study. The study utilised data obtained from the South African Weather Services’ (SAWS) archives for the period 1900 to 2018. Additional data were obtained from field observations and key informant interviews from various Western Cape admimisttrative districts that took place between February and December 2020. A snow ball sampling technique was followed in the selection of 15 key informants, which formed part of the study. Key informants comprised of staff from the City of Cape Town that included planners, environmental engineers, museum curators, protected area personnel, tradtional community leaders and climate experts from the province. Such key informant interviews took between 45 and 60 min. Questions for key infrmants centered on documenting the climate history of the area, experiences with the floods, possible causes and possible solutions to flooding among other key questions pertinent to the study. The use of key informants interviews is an acceptable standard, methodological approach, which has been used in previous similar studies by Lo et al. (2017) and Twongyirwe et al. (2018). The approach can yield valid results and allows researchers to collect high quality data within a short period of time from fewer people in a cost effective manner. This methodological approach also addreses the constraints posed by the COVID-19 pandemic of ensuring phsycical and social distancing as it minimised contact with a lot of people. SAWS is one of the most resourced meteorological organisations in terms of weather stations that boasts a wide array of weather and climate equipment networks (Fig.  2 ).

Some Key assets utilised by South African Weather Services

Data analysis was conducted using XLSTAT 2020.5.1 that was run on a Microsoft Excel sheet. A time series was analysed using the Mann–Kendall trend test to determine the presence of trends. The Confidence interval was set at 95%, and the Significance level was set at 5%. The Mann- Kendall trend test was also used to plot the Sen’s Slope. The Mann–Kendall trend test is a commonly used parametric tool used in climate and hydrological studies that enjoys wide usage and has been used in similar studies by other scholars (Hamed, 2008 ; Hu et al., 2020 ). Choropleth maps showing flood hotspots in the study area were produced in a Geographic Information System using flood incident count at local municipality level as a measure. Frequently flooded areas were denoted by increasing the colour intensity on the map. Primary and secondary qualitative data was analysed using content and thematic analysis.

Results and discussion

The study found that between 1900 and 2018, at least 334 major flood events occurred in the Western Cape, with a mean annual number of floods being 2.9. The highest number of annual flood events over the period of study is 20, which occurred in 2008. The second-highest number of flood events were recorded in 1981, where 15 floods were recorded. The third-highest flood years were recorded in 2004, 2005 and 2006, where 13 floods were recorded in each year. Consequently, the frequency of floods has been higher during the past four decades as compared to earlier periods (Fig.  3 ). In the first half-century, the average number of floods was at less than two flood events per year in the province, with the last century having peaked up to slightly more than four flood events per year. Figure  3 shows that there is a statistically significant ( p  = 0.0001, α = 0.5) increase in the number of flooding events occurring in Western Cape province over the period of study.

Source : Authors, Data from SAWS (2020)

Flooding frequency and trends in Western Cape province 1900–2018

The observed increase in coastal flooding in the Western Cape Province in Fig.  3 confirms earlier findings in other parts of the world where coastal flooding is on the increase due to extreme weather events induced by climate change and other urban challenges as reported by Hirabayashi, ( 2013 ) and also Kim, ( 2017 ). One of the critical drivers of coastal flooding in Western Cape Province is high sea tides and intense rainfall activity. A study by Dube et al. ( 2021 ) found that some of the recent floodings observed in the City of Cape Town, for example, were worsened by sea level rise confirming earlier findings by Park and Lee ( 2020 ). Flooding in the Western Cape Province is worrying as it has far reaching socio-economic impacts on one of the most urbanised provinces and areas in the entire Southern Africa.

The study found that flooding was mainly concentrated in the areas close to the coast, with the highest flood prevalence concentrated around the City of Cape Town and areas that are to the east of the province (Fig.  4 ). Areas to the South East of the Cape Winelands district and areas to the South of the Cape Winelands seems to be most affected by the number of floods, whereas central Eden also experiences the highest number of floods. In the Cape Winelands District, the areas between Montagu and Ashton town are also considerably affected by flooding. The area which lies along the R62 road is prone to flooding due to several factors. The interviews were conducted with key informants where it was revealed that the area is susceptible to flooding due to its mountainous terrain with water being channelled towards a mountain gorge which the R62 road runs through. Other flood hotspots include areas near South East coastal areas of Overberg District east of Cape Agulhas near Strus Bay. In the Garden route area, areas around Plettenberg Bay were identified as flooding hotspots. From Fig.  4 it emerges that floods tend to be concentrated along the coastline. However, by and large, the West Coast and Central Karoo areas are not as affected due to semi-arid and desert conditions that prevail, with flush floods occurring once in a while.

Flood count and risk analysis map of Western Cape province between 1900 and 2018

Information gathered from the key informants revealed that heavy rainfall along the Kogmanskloof Mountain Pass along the R62 road often results in flooding in areas around the pass. Based on evidence from the Western Cape Provincial Government report and key informants in the area, one of the most memorable floods in the area is the Montagu flood of March 2003 which went on to be declared a national disaster. The record flood occurred as a consequence of a cut-off low that resulted in the Montagu area receiving 178 mm of rainfall in 1 day on the 23rd of March 2003. The total monthly rainfall for that month went up to 241 mm, which became one of the wettest days in the history of the area. That particular flood event damaged roads, factories in Ashton town, farms, schools and had a huge impact on tourism. The De Hoop Nature Reserve’s main road was washed away, and Goukamma Nature Reserve access road was also badly damaged in a development that costed Cape Nature more than R1 million. The traditional leadership in the area fears that the flood event and other subsequent floods washed away several archaeological artefacts from the Khoisan San community in mountains in the area leading to a loss of important historical heritage. The flood also had an adverse impact on the Klein Karoo Arts Festival as the area was declared a disaster zone because of that flood event. The access road between Ashton and Montagu was disrupted just in time for the festival cutting off tourist access.

Field observations and information from key informants revealed that given a significantly large basin and water channelled from mountain zones, flood risk is also high in that area. Another factor that promotes occasional floods is that the area seems to be experiencing successive years of flooding and drought, given its geographic location, which is transitional to the central Karoo, which is semi-desert. Pollution from urban and farming activities in the catchment further promotes the heavy growth of weeds within the Kogmanskloofrivier river. This reduces the rate of water outflow from the area and ultimately increases the risk of flooding in the area.

It emerged during fieldwork that the government is working on upgrading road infrastructure in the area so as to mitigate the increased impact of flooding on human settlements and infrastructure. The infrastructure includes elevating the road and making bigger elevated bridges to allow for more water to flow at any given time without causing flooding. The bridge in Ashton town, for example, was being upgraded to allow more water flow. It remains to be seen how such upgrades will limit the disruptions caused by floods to Montagu and Ashton town’s two communities.

Socio-economic impact of floods in Western Cape

It emerged from the SAWS records, damages induced by flooding in the Western Cape ranged from infrastructure (roads, bridges, and rail lines), loss of properties, homes, damages to vineyards, damages to informal settlements, and injury and loss of human lives. In as much as the increased socio-economic and human cost can be tracked back to increased frequency of flooding events, increased urbanisation and affluence has over the years worsened this phenomenon.

Table 1 shows some of the most significant and high impact floods that have been witnessed in the Western Cape between 1901 and 2018. The flooding incidences recorded in various places in the Western Cape show that the flooding events in the province have led to the death of more than 129 people across province. There were very few deaths witnessed before 1980, with only three fatalities attributed to floods. The single highest number of fatalities were recorded in 1981 when a staggering 104 people were killed in a single incident by a raging flood that wiped away almost the entire small town of Laingsburg. On 25 January 1981, a cloud outburst caused one of the greatest floods in the Great Karoo. Given the geohydrological makeup of the area, where the soil cannot absorb much water, the cloud outburst resulted in a 6 m high flood after the Baviaans and Buffels rivers. The two rivers have their confluence in the town, and they bursted their banks, destroying 185 houses and 23 businesses.

That flooding incident went on to be labelled as one of the worst natural disasters in South Africa. In addition to the destruction of properties and businesses, the flood led to the washing away of animals and the town’s tourism infrastructure. During this 1 in 100 year flood incident, the Great Trek Monument, which is an important Dutch historical monument, which was constructed in 1938, was washed away. While the greater part of the monument was recovered after the flood, the monument’s pedestal was lost and was only found after another flood in June 2015. The impacts of floods are well documented, which have played both a positive and negative role in heritage properties (Liu, 2019 ; Reimann, 2018 ). While floods destroyed the monument, they also created another historical monument. Post the flood a Flood Museum was constructed in the same town.

It would appear from key informants’ accounts that the 1981 Laingsburg natural disaster was partial caused settlements that were established without proper risk analysis and consideration. Settlements, which are established without a proper risk assessment in the form of environmental impact assessment remain a worry across the country. This is particularly so, given the additional vulnerabilities induced by climate change-induced weather extreme events. Climate change-induced extreme weather events have the potential to amplify natural events, including rainfall patterns and intensity. Field observation revealed that even after the disaster, a look at the area shows that human development, including commercial infrastructures such as hotels, lodges, restaurants, and a hospital, is still located in flood zone. The adjustment to address the risk is crucial to current and future urban sustainability as part of disaster risk reduction. In that vein, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, particularly the Sustainable Development Goal Target 11.5, seeks to reduce the number of fatalities and economic losses relative to the gross domestic product caused by disasters, focusing on the poor (United Nations, 2015 ). Similar aspirations are encompassed in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015 ).

The Western Cape Province case study reveals that flood risks in urban areas are on the increase. Such risks primarily affect the poor. Extreme weather events such as floods often destroys homes and livelihoods. Evidence from the study reveals that flooding has in the past destroyed several shacks and homes. The worst affected areas in the past have been areas around George, Cape Town, Hermanus, Cape Flats and Khayelitsha. Apart from the Western Cape Province, similar observations have been made elsewhere in African states and other developing states that are located in coastal areas. Some of the affected areas includes Manila, Philippines (Zoleta-Nantes, 2002 ), Nigeria, (Adelekan, 2010 ; Echendu, 2020 ) and China (Jiang et al., 2018 ).

According to Douglas ( 2008 ) and Douglas ( 2017 ), the unjust water and climate are flooding the poor along with the coastal towns in Africa. The situation can be attributed to increasing urban poverty and rapid urbanisation and urban sprawl that has left many condemned to a life of squalor. Most urban councils in the coastal Western Cape and, in many respects, other urban areas in South Africa are failing to meet the demands of an ever-increasing housing backlog. Consequently, most urban migrants are settled in informal settlements where the settlements are unplanned and often in disaster-prone areas such as waterways and, in some instances, fragile ecosystems prone to flooding and other disasters. In Cape Town, for example, field observations revealed that the mushrooming of informal settlements magnified by the ongoing land grabs in the Cape Flats resulted in many building houses on waterways and fragile ocean sand dunes in densely populated areas, which exposed thousands to flood and fire disasters (Fig.  5 ). Therefore, it is not surprising that the City of Cape Town has witnessed increased incidences and cost of residents' displacement and property loss due to the combined effect of extreme weather events, urban sprawl and invasion of disaster areas by city dwellers.

Source : Authors, Fieldwork 2020

Informal settlement built on unstable dunes and waterway in Khayelitsha, Cape Town

The debate of flooding and climate change becomes central, as flooding disasters are driving many people around the globe into poverty. This sentiment is shared by Jordhus-Lier et al. ( 2019 ), who noted that the City of Cape Town flooding is a growing concern that requires focus and attention by developing climate change adaptation. In doing so, there is a need to address factors that induce vulnerabilities. According to Ribot ( 2014 ), addressing vulnerabilities requires an approach that considers the root causes of the crises so that transformative solutions can be found, often lacking in climate change adaptation studies. In this regard, addressing vulnerabilities must consider various matrices at play. These include climatic factors and factors that push people into settling in eco-sensitive areas and waterways and considering aspects that deal with rapid rural to urban migration. Finally, dealing with aspects of refuse waste and drainage clogging in many urban setups in the Western Cape and across the country. In recent years, urban inequality has featured storngly in the mix, with politics playing a central role in urban settlement issues, resulting in wanton settlement development and land grabs, in some instances in areas that are not suitable for settlement.

A recent study by Dube et al. ( 2020a , 2020b ) noted that flooding in Cape Town was not only a factor of poverty as the affluent were also being hit hard by the compounded effect of sea-level rise and intense storm activity in the coastal city. Addressing vulnerabilities is, therefore, a wicked problem that requires a holistic approach. It is common knowledge that climate change, apart from civil unrest and wars that ravage the continent, is one of the contributory factors and drivers of rural poverty, which drives rural to urban migration. Therefore, addressing sustainability becomes a complex issue that requires the reconfiguration of governance systems to ensure urban transformation in line with the aspirations of SDG11 as espoused by Patel ( 2017 ).

Besides the City of Cape Town, other coastal urban areas have been threatened by floodings, such as George and Hermanus. There are also other important tourist resort towns where millions of rand worth of property have been damaged. The floods have been blamed for the destruction of tourism infrastructure, often located in pristine areas close to nature. Floods in the Western Cape have often cut off routes to some of the province's tourism destinations, such as Agulhas National Park, where the primary link road becomes flooded during intense rainfall as the road runs through a significant wetland area. Flooding, therefore, undermines economic activities in the province. Figure  6 shows the damage which occurred in May 2005 on the R43 highway, which links Hermanus to Stanford.

Source : Overstrand Municipality

Impacts of severe flooding in Hermanus on transport infrastructure.

Looking at the global scale, addressing global warming that leads to climate change, and in turn, weather extreme events, in this case, the threat of flooding, will require both local and national governments to embrace climate change mitigation strategies. This, therefore, demands implementing measures aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of the province and all its metros. The province has an obligation to reduce its emissions under the Paris Agreement, and one way of doing this is an investment in clean energy such as wind and solar, which requires an investment in energy efficiency technologies. Investment in clean energy should address challenges of energy, climate change and unemployment in the province. One of the ways of decreasing disaster vulnerability in Africa is through the addressing of poverty and inequality.

SDG 16 Target 16.3 speaks about the need to ensure the rule of law. This is a critical issue with regards to developing a sustainable urban community within the province of the Western Cape. One of the challenges faced by urban areas in South Africa is non-adherence to city by-laws and national legislative provisions, with environmental laws often being flouted for political expediency. Strict adherence to environmental laws and enforcement of environmental laws can ensure that people do not settle in fragile and eco-sensitive areas such as wetland, waterways and protected coastal zones and estuaries, which are often risky areas. Adherence and enforcement of environmental laws will ensure that some of the populations now located in risk and disaster areas are relocated to safe zones where proper urban planning has been taken into consideration to reduce flood risk.

Colenbrander ( 2019 ) argues that despite the transition to democracy and adopting a white paper on sustainable development fairness and inclusivity, the paper is still elusive regarding reducing risk and vulnerability in coastal management in South Africa. SDG Targets 16.6 and Target 16.7 further speak about ensuring the need to develop effective and transparent, and accountable institutions at all levels. They also speak about the need to foster responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision making at all levels. The Western Cape government has often come under fire for directing a considerable share of its resources towards the wealthy elite at the expense of the marginalised (Black et al., 2020 ). This has entrenched and extended inequality in many respects, which has negated the poor to live in squaller conditions. In a bid to reduce risk, the provincial government might need to relook at resource allocation to provide the much needed essential services and deliver on promises of housing for all as a strategy of reducing the housing backlog. This should also provide affordable housing, which will take large segments of the population out of informal settlements. Given the scope and demand for safe housing, there might be a need for the national government, civil society, and private players to roll out housing for the poor and low, middle-income earners who are often at the receiving end of the flooding disasters that affect the province. While there is evidence (Fig.  7 ) that there has been an increase in people living in formal housing, there is a need to arrest the increasing number of people living in informal settlements, most of whom are at the mercy of extreme weather events such as flooding in the Western Cape. A reduction in housing backlog is one good starting point. The Western Cape’s housing backlog is estimated at a staggering 600,000 as of the year 2020, according to a report by Gontsana ( 2020 ).

Source : Authors, Data from Stats SA

Western Cape Household by dwelling type 1995–2016.

One of the challenges that are likely to be faced in housing is the issue of land to relocate people located in climate disaster zones. Releasing state land for human settlement to construct affordable housing and rural development houses is a must in addressing the problem. This has to be done in a holistic manner that does not seek to score cheap political points, as we have seen during the Day Zero drought phenomenon (Nhamo & Agyepong, 2019 ). One other problem from flooding has been the clogging of water systems with either overgrown vegetation or waste, or both. Work by Echendu ( 2020 ) in Nigeria, Abass et al. ( 2020 ) in Ghana, Mahmood et al. ( 2017 ) in Khartoum, and Dalu et al. ( 2018 ) in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, show that poor drainage and drainage clogging, compounds flooding in urban areas. The Western Cape is not unique, as in high density suburbs, the infrastructure maintenance and refuse collection is rather lax. The phenomenon has worsened the impacts of flooding in the city with calls for dredging of weeds overgrowth in waterways; improved refuse collection and waste management calls being made to ensure that there is a substantial reduction of risk of flooding.

Conclusions

The study sought to investigate the trends and impacts of floods in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Making use of the Mann–Kendall Trend test, the study established that there is a statistically significant increase in the number of flood events that are taking place in the Western Cape province. The study also found that some of the most vulnerable areas to flooding includes Knysna, George, Hermanus and cape flats in Cape Town, to mention but a few. Floods compounded with other urban challenges have led to an increase in the human and economic costs of floods, with some floods costing millions and, in some cases, billions of rand. The loss of property, infrastructure and human lives makes floods an urgent concern that requires urgent attention from development practitioners, city planners, government and ordinary residents to ensure sustainability. Given that flood risk is a result of multiple factors that interact to produce disaster situations for mainly urban areas, there is a need for concerted efforts to put in place measures that build community resilience to floods and build back better thereby producing climate smart societies. The study recommends an integrated approach to the management of flooding in the Western Cape province as part of ensuring urban sustainability. Addressing the flooding challenges further requires a holistic approach that takes into account climate change and other urban challenges such as land grabs, urban sprawling and associated challenges. Lastly, both the private and public sector players need to work together to build climate start infrastructure and insure critical infrastructure against flood hazards given their significant increase over time.

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Dube, K., Nhamo, G. & Chikodzi, D. Flooding trends and their impacts on coastal communities of Western Cape Province, South Africa. GeoJournal 87 (Suppl 4), 453–468 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10460-z

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Disaster teams on standby for localised flooding in KZN, as unusual weather conditions expected to disrupt ports in the Eastern Cape

D isaster management teams in the KwaZulu-Natal province were on standby amid disruptive weather which was forecast to affect many parts of the province.

Authorities in the Eastern Cape are also expecting the heavy rains, which could lead to flooding in both provinces, to cause delays at the harbours.

The South African Weather Service has predicted a rare weather occurrence that is set to disrupt coastal areas along South Africa's south-west to south-east coastline from Sunday.

A combination of strong to near-gale/gale force winds and other atmospheric factors is expected to result in a negative storm surge, posing potential risks to maritime activities and coastal infrastructure.

“This will lead to low water levels, resulting in negative storm surge along the south-west to south-east coastline of South Africa in places between Saldanha and Gqeberha,” the weather service warned in a statement on Saturday.

Negative storm surge occurs when powerful near-surface offshore winds drive water levels below normal along a coastline, defying typical storm surge patterns.

This phenomenon, while not directly endangering the public, can impede maritime transportation and impact shoreline structures. Negative surges often coincide with low tides, exacerbating their effects on coastal regions.

The SAWS Wave and Storm Surge model predicts a negative storm surge from Saldanha Bay to Gqeberha from Sunday.

Major cities and ports in this stretch are likely to experience disruptions, with Saldanha and Gqeberha highlighted as focal points of concern.

The public is urged to stay informed through regular updates from trusted sources, including television, radio, and social media platforms.

Heightened vigilance and adherence to safety protocols are advised, especially for those residing in coastal regions and involved in maritime activities.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the weather forecaster has also warned residents of level 4 rains which could result in localised flooding.

The weather forecaster said rainfall exceeding 50mm is expected over the weekend which may lead to impact such as flooding of some of the roads and settlements, displacement and traffic congestion.

KZN Cogta spokesperson Siboniso Mngadi said they had activated disaster teams in all the municipalities that are likely to be affected to be on high alert during this period.

“We advise communities to seek shelter in safe places. Public facilities, such as community halls, are open as safe havens for those in need of shelter.

“Our teams may have to evacuate people should they foresee high risk of danger due to inclement weather.

“Motorists are strongly advised to avoid travelling during this period, as bridges may become flooded, posing a risk to life,” said Mngadi.

Areas expected to be affected include: Ladysmith, Dannhauser, Underberg, Paulpietersburg, Newcastle, Dundee, Durban, Greater Kokstad,, Bulwer, Escourt, KwaDukuza, Mandeni, Maphumulo, Mkhambathini, Mooi River, Msinga, Ndwedwe, Newcastle, Nkandla, Nongoma, Nquthu, Okhahlamba, Port Shepstone, Richmond, Umdoni Umshwathi, Umzimkhulu, Pietermaritzburg, Umvoti, Umngeni, Richmond and Umzumbe.

Home » News » South Africa » Weather

By Cornelia Le Roux

Digital Deputy News Editor

5 minute read

Severe weather alert: Disaster crews brace for flooding, damaging storms in KZN and Cape

The south african weather service has forecasted a rare weather occurrence that is set to disrupt coastal areas from sunday..

Photo: iStock

Disaster management teams in the KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape are on high alert amid the South African Weather Service’s (SAWS) forecast for severe weather conditions lashing these provinces from Sunday, 7 April.

Authorities in the Eastern Cape are also expecting heavy rains, which could lead to flooding and cause delays at harbours.

Severe weather warning: Flooding, storm surges, damaging winds

According to SAWS , cut-off lows are large weather systems notorious for causing widespread flooding, as evidenced by events such as the devastating KwaZulu-Natal floods in 2022.

These weather systems can also bring damaging winds, severe thunderstorms, and even snow.

A combination of strong to near-gale/gale force winds and other atmospheric factors is expected to result in a negative storm surge, posing potential risks to maritime activities and coastal infrastructure.

Russia evacuates more than 4000 people after dam burst

“This will lead to low water levels, resulting in negative storm surge along the south-west to south-east coastline of South Africa in places between Saldanha and Gqeberha,” the weather service warned in a statement on Saturday.

This phenomenon, while not directly endangering the public, can impede maritime transportation and impact shoreline structures.

Heightened vigilance and adherence to safety protocols are advised, especially for those residing in coastal regions and involved in maritime activities.

ALSO READ: Weather update: More rain, wind, fog and low temperatures predicted as ‘cut-off low’ system hits SA

Level 4 rains heading to KwaZulu-Natal

In KwaZulu-Natal, the weather forecaster has also warned residents of Level 4 rains which could result in localised flooding.

The weather forecaster said rainfall exceeding 50mm is expected over the weekend which may lead to impact such as flooding of some of the roads and settlements, displacement and traffic congestion.

‘Safe havens’: Community halls open to public

KZN Cogta spokesperson Siboniso Mngadi said they had activated disaster teams in all the municipalities that are likely to be affected to be on high alert during this period.

“We advise communities to seek shelter in safe places. Public facilities, such as community halls, are open as safe havens for those in need of shelter.

Our teams may have to evacuate people should they foresee high risk of danger due to inclement weather.

“Motorists are strongly advised to avoid travelling during this period, as bridges may become flooded, posing a risk to life,” said Mngadi.

KZN areas of concern

Areas expected to be affected by the inclement weather conditions, include:

Ladysmith, Dannhauser, Underberg, Paulpietersburg, Newcastle, Dundee, Durban, Greater Kokstad,, Bulwer, Escourt, KwaDukuza, Mandeni, Maphumulo, Mkhambathini, Mooi River, Msinga, Ndwedwe, Newcastle, Nkandla, Nongoma, Nquthu, Okhahlamba, Port Shepstone, Richmond, Umdoni Umshwathi, Umzimkhulu, Pietermaritzburg, Umvoti, Umngeni, Richmond and Umzumbe.

Western Cape Level 4, 6 and 9 weather warnings

In the Western Cape, the potent cut-off low system brings with it the threat of a black southeasterly wind, disruptive rainfall, high waves capable of causing damage, and the likelihood of very cold, wet, and windy conditions.

The weather service also issued a warning for gale-force winds and heavy rain in large parts of the Western Cape from this evening (6 April).

SAWS spokesperson Tokelo Chiloane, said gale-force winds are expected in Cape Town, the Overberg and the Cape Winelands, including floods in some parts of the province, that may lead to structural damage.

Chiloane also warns of dangerous conditions for vessels at sea.

“Wind between Table Bay and Cape Agulhas is expected to lead to vessels being at risk of breaking the anker and lines.

“In terms of rainfall, the warning that we have is a level four warning for the sub different rainfall expected in the Central Karoo, West Coast, Cape Winelands and Southern Namakwa on Sunday, including the Garden Route on Monday.”

⚠️WARNING: Level 9, 6 & 4 – Rain – Western & Northern Cape – 7/4/2024 at 12:00 until 8/4/2024 at 24:00 SAST🌧️ pic.twitter.com/0lmICDh4Rx — SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) April 6, 2024

City of Cape Town disaster crews brace for damaging winds, heavy rains

The City of Cape Town says disaster crews are on high alert following the weather office’s Level 4, 6 and 9 warnings for gale-force winds and heavy rains from Saturday evening until Monday.

Disaster Risk Management spokesperson, Charlotte Powell, said the winds and predicted rainfall could cause damage across the metropole and other parts of the province.

She has urged the public to exercise caution on the roads and in low-lying areas.

⚠️WARNING: Orange Level 6 – Damaging Winds – Western Cape & Namaqua – Saturday, 6 April 2024, 17:00 until Sunday, 7 April 2024, 00:00🍃 pic.twitter.com/KUbMbf0Pfe — SA Weather Service (@SAWeatherServic) April 6, 2024

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Was Today’s Earthquake Connected to the Solar Eclipse?

The tidal forces on Earth grow as the sun, moon and Earth begin to align, a configuration that can lead to a solar eclipse. But the results of several studies of the relationship between earthquakes and tides are inconclusive, a geophysicist said.

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By Katrina Miller

• April 5, 2024

With a total solar eclipse set to pass through the United States on Monday, it is easy to imagine a linkage between unusual events in the heavens and on Earth. But geoscientists were cautious about making such a connection.

Earthquakes happen along fault lines, or cracks between two blocks of rock on Earth’s crust. Tides stretch and squish the land on Earth just as they contribute to waves in the ocean, and those tidal forces grow as the sun, moon and Earth begin to align — a configuration that sometimes creates a solar eclipse.

One theory is that this may introduce additional stress along Earth’s fault lines.

“We do know that the relative position of the Earth and the moon and the sun does exert tidal forces,” said William Frank, a geophysicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “And we know that changes the stress that can be on a fault that can host an earthquake.”

But the results of several studies of the relationship between earthquakes and tides are inconclusive, according to Seth Stein, a geophysicist at Northwestern University. “If there’s any effect, it would be incredibly weak,” he said.

Earthquakes are driven most often by the motion between two tectonic plates making up Earth’s crust — either when two plates slide along each other in opposite directions, or when one slides under the other.

Both types of movements introduce strain at the junction, which often gets relieved by an earthquake.

But at the moment, it’s difficult to say that plate motion was responsible for the quake that shook the Northeast Friday morning.

“It’s not quite as obvious, because there is no tectonic plate boundary that is active,” Dr. Frank said.

Still, he added, fault lines from past activity are everywhere on Earth’s crust.

“Some of these faults can still be storing stress and be closure to failure,” he said. “And it can just require a little bit more to push it over the edge.”

Katrina Miller is a science reporting fellow for The Times. She recently earned her Ph.D. in particle physics from the University of Chicago. More about Katrina Miller

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Is an Earthquake Like That Hitting NYC Again? Is It Related to the Eclipse? What Were the Best Jokes?

Your questions, answered..

A magnitude 4.8 earthquake rattled the East Coast Friday morning, and the first question many New Yorkers had on their minds—as their apartment walls shook—was, “What is my landlord up to this time ?”

Before any official news report, residents who felt the rumbling took to social media and their group chats to confirm the tectonic event wasn’t a figment of their imagination or a product of the quotidian NYC apartment woes. The lack of initial information and the confusion were also compounded by late emergency alerts. Here’s what we know so far.

Where did it hit?

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the earthquake originated in northern New Jersey, striking at 10:23 a.m. The tremors were felt in the surrounding tri-state area, including New York City, and as far away as the coasts of Maryland and Maine. No reports have been made, yet, of any injuries or substantial damage.

Wild! Is this common on the East Coast?

Earthquakes can happen at any time, anywhere, but they are a relatively rare occurrence on the East Coast. A geology professor explained to NBC New York that the city rests upon a “lazy plate,” meaning that the slipping of tectonic plates that causes earthquakes happens less frequently. (A regional branch of the Federal Emergency Management Agency in Colorado wrote on X that New Jersey does have a known risk for earthquakes.)

What is surprising about this latest earthquake is not necessarily where it took place, geologist Chuck Ver Straeten told USA Today, but rather its magnitude. This one’s reported 4.8 strength was abnormal. He said earthquakes in the region are usually of a lower magnitude.

Buffalo was struck by a magnitude 3.8 quake in February 2023 —and that was the strongest recorded tectonic event in 40 years in the area. Higher-magnitude earthquakes also occurred relatively recently in Delaware, where a 4.1 magnitude event struck in 2017, and Virginia, which was rocked by a 5.8 quake in 2011.

OK, got it. But why now? Is the coming solar eclipse related to the earthquake?

Doomsday conspiracies (and jokes) are swirling about the End Times, an unsurprising reaction to any alarming natural disaster, but there is no confirmed link between earthquakes and solar eclipses. (Don’t forget to get some eclipse glasses for April 8!)

OK, not an eclipse-related phenomenon. Does climate change have anything to do with the earthquake?

It’s difficult to make causal inferences between climate change and larger earthquakes, according to a NASA interview with geophysicist Paul Lundgren . Climate change has been associated with increased sea levels and flooding, which are variables that could cause fault stress. However, Lundgren said that the correlation between climate change–caused stressors and earthquakes is seen with extremely small earthquakes (magnitudes below zero).

Amid the questions and a little bit of panic, many East Coast residents spoke about not feeling prepared for an earthquake emergency in their households. Lists of recommended supplies circulated on social media.

For New Yorkers, the earthquake renewed concern about the city’s vulnerability to natural disasters. The city adopted earthquake safety provisions in its building code nearly 30 years ago, but they did not apply to buildings that were, er, constructed prior to 1995 . (For reference, the median age of buildings in New York City is 90 years old.)

In 2006, a Slate report on the city’s possible earthquakin’ future was even more dire, noting that lack of preparedness was a major problem:

Perhaps the most vulnerable place in the nation right now is New York City, which turns out to be the third-most seismically active region east of the Mississippi. Geologists estimate a 20 percent to 40 percent chance of a significant earthquake in the next 50 years in New York, and they make a special point to say that a major quake is also a real possibility. New Yorkers don’t worry about earthquakes, but we should—particularly those of us who own property here.

Well, that’s kind of scary. 

Yes. But of course, the anxiety around possible infrastructure failures did not preclude users online from reacting to the tectonic event with a flurry of cathartic memes and jokes. (I mean, did it really happen if there were no jokes?)

One person on X wrote , mimicking the voice of Sex and the City character Carrie Bradshaw, “as a 4.7 magnitude earthquake hit manhattan i couldn’t help but wonder…was my relationship with big structurally sound enough to withstand the impact?”

Another joked about the description of the earthquake reflecting New Yorkers’ flippance to their neighbors across the Hudson: “ ‘West of Manhattan’ is the New Yorkiest possible way to refer to New Jersey.”

Nice! A New Jersey joke. Any other tweets worth seeing?

And, if you know, you know:

OK, sorry one more Eric Adams joke for the road:

Across the country, Los Angelenos and other West Coasters—who routinely experience this scale of earthquake—are yawning at news of their “culture” being appropriated. One unimpressed person wryly wrote , “I was born in Los Angeles on a morning of an earthquake many years ago. A 4.8 earthquake in LA would barely raise an eyebrow.”