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If there is no recession – which is our view – then risky asset prices are too cheap. Many equity market segments are down 60-80%. Positioning and sentiment of investors is at multi-decade lows. So, it is not that we think that the world and economies are in great shape, but just that an average investor expects an economic disaster. If that does not materialize, risky asset classes could recover most of their losses from the first half. Our bullish and out-of-consensus view is hence a forecast of a lost year – a recovery of H1 losses in risky assets.

Marko Kolanovic & Bram Kaplan

J.P. Morgan Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy

Global growth

The first half of this year has delivered a number of adverse shocks that dramatically raised inflation and significantly weighed on growth. This recent turbulence shines a light on a healthy private sector that has cushioned these blows and allowed the global expansion to move forward. At the same time, the household sector has absorbed the unprecedented purchasing power squeeze from surging inflation by rapidly reducing their saving rate. These positive demand impulses have sustained global GDP growth at a trend-pace outside of China in the first half of 2022. When combined with an assumed fading of shocks that reduce inflation, these strong fundamentals are anticipated to deliver above-potential growth in 2H22.

Higher inflation, which has generated more restrictive central bank policy and tightening financial conditions poses a challenge to this outlook. This year’s inflation surge has already produced a hawkish pivot, but central banks outside the higher-yielding Emerging Markets (EM) have so far remained committed to sustaining the expansion. But as the inflation surge looks likely to persist, policy guidance is starting to shift. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June suggested the Fed is now committed to push policy rates well into restrictive territory this year, while also guiding to a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate. This shift is likely to resonate elsewhere and is a significant factor tightening global financial markets.

“We still see the expansion continuing through this extended phase of negative shocks, but the risks are skewed decisively to the upside on inflation and to the downside on growth,” said Bruce Kasman, Head of Economic Research at J.P. Morgan.

Downward momentum looks to be concentrated in the U.S. economy, which will likely feel the brunt of the drag from higher interest rates and is benefiting less from fading COVID drags.

By contrast, the fading of the Omicron drag is expected to generate a period of Asian outperformance. In Europe, where the recovery is further behind the U.S., growth is also set to get a boost from somewhat easier monetary and fiscal policies.

GDP growth in 2022

In 2022, annualized GDP growth is projected to be 2.6% globally, 1.5% in the U.S., 1.3% in the Euro area, 5.5% in China and 4.5% in Emerging Markets.

Equity sentiment, investor positioning and market internals have been bearish, resulting in the worst annual start for equities in around 100 years, with the exception of the Great Depression. Portfolios are defensively positioned for a recessionary outcome and corporate fundamentals should exhibit relative resilience for the rest of the year, despite some softness in corporate guidance.“

We believe the fundamental risk-reward for equities will be improving as we enter the second half of the year, with growth-policy tradeoff likely to turn, from both sides,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, Global Head of Equity Macro Research at J.P. Morgan.

Mid-to-high single digit growth rate is expected for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) in 2022, with J.P. Morgan estimates at $225 (vs. consensus $229.58). Growth should moderate in 2023 with negative revisions to EPS driven by slight margin compression and U.S. dollar headwinds.

Equity markets typically have large drawdowns during a hiking cycle, with an average sell-off of -16% in the 13 cycles since 1954. The -25% drawdown so far in this cycle is comparable to 1986-89 cycle (-32.6%, Black Monday, recession came after three and a half years from the start of the cycle). Anything short of a recession will likely catch most investors completely wrong-footed, especially after broad correction that resulted in the average stock drawdown around 80% of the way to prior recession bottoms.

“At the current juncture defensive stocks possess valuation risk while flushed out cyclicals / growth / small-caps are presenting an increasingly attractive risk/reward. Our highest conviction sector call remains energy (strong fundamentals, still attractive valuation, rising shareholder return and geopolitical/inflation hedge),” added Lakos-Bujas. 

Worst start after Great Depression in around 100 years

Equity markets experienced the worst start to the year since 1927 during the Great Depression, down 40.5% year-to-date. In 2022, equity markets experienced the second worst start to the year, down 22.9% (as of 17 June, 2022). Other notable events that caused poor starts to the year include the Kennedy Slide, World War II and the Vietnam War/Tightening.

Commodities

Commodities are on pace to deliver a third consecutive year of significant positive returns, up 30% year-to-date. Despite this strong performance, the case for commodities going forward remains strong, as conditions of acute scarcity continue to persist across commodities. Summertime is the traditional peak of demand season, but current inventories are 19% below historical norms and lack of an inventory buffer is leaving the market vulnerable to unplanned supply outages.

“In our view, almost the entire complex remains a buy,” said Natasha Kaneva, Head of the Global Commodities Strategy team at J.P. Morgan.

In oil markets, Russian crude is flowing, but global crude markets have tightened considerably, as transit times get longer. Tightness in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) supply suggests higher prices for longer is the continued theme for the European natural gas market. In agriculture, apart from soybeans, balances continue to show draws in inventories through 2022/23 across the board and stock-to-use ratios across tradeable inventories remain historically tight.

Turning to base metals, while there are sizeable risks that zero-COVID policies could continue to hamper economic activity in China, a rebound in Chinese demand could further stress low inventory levels, driving a 2H22 price recovery. Finally, precious metals remain the more bearish outlier. While firmer inflation may seem bullish for prices, it is now being quickly counteracted by more aggressive pricing for a policy response from the Fed and other central banks, likely keeping prices constrained.

2022 global commodities price forecasts

Emerging markets

EM growth has held up in the face of large shocks. The first half of the year has produced a confluence of outsized shocks that would normally deliver a sizeable blow to EM growth, including surging food and energy prices due to supply disruptions from conflict in Ukraine, sharp contractions in two of the largest EM economies—China and Russia—and tightening in global financial conditions. EM has weathered these shocks well so far and while overall growth is tracking a sub-par 1.5% for the first half of the year, growth outside of China and Russia is holding above its potential pace at 3.6% annual rate.

“Much of the second half outlook hinges on the tug-of-war between still high private sector savings and high inflation,” said Nora Sventivanyi, Senior Economist at J.P. Morgan.

EM private sector savings still intact

This chart shows EM private sector savings as a percentage of GDP, with savings still higher than the average of the last 20 years.  

The private sector in EM heads into 2H with much of its stock of excess savings still intact, but high inflation will continue to squeeze households and compel them to continue to draw on these savings. J.P. Morgan forecasts some moderation in growth based on these headwinds, but the private sector can still lessen the blow of a formidable set of circumstances. EM inflation is expected to peak in the third quarter and commodity prices are expected to ease in H2 from their Q2 peaks, which would kick-start EM headline disinflation from Q4. EM monetary policy tightening is well advanced, but there is still more to go. Following steep policy rate hikes for several quarters, several EM central banks are starting to show signs of hiking ‘fatigue’, signaling less aggressive tightening paces and more concern with slowing growth and macro stability. Uncertainty over China’s 2H recovery remains high due to the zero COVID policy, but early indicators suggest the worst of the current Omicron is likely behind us, with economic activity rebounding strongly in May after a weak March-April. J.P. Morgan baseline forecasts look for 7.4% growth in 2H22 following a contraction of 5.4% in Q2, with full-year 2022 growth at 3.7% year-on-year. 

Inflation has been strong throughout the year so far and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now working to rein it in. Through much of 2021, the FOMC believed strong inflation was transitory and kept policy very accommodative. But the Committee started changing its tone late last year and since then has been more active in trying to bring inflation down. A hiking cycle began in March and then the start of the drawdown of the balance sheet at the beginning of June. The FOMC has now hiked its target range 150 basis points (bp) over the course of just three meetings through June, including most recently a 75 bp hike. The FOMC has signaled that it will continue to hike over time, raising rates another 175 bp by the end of this year and then another 25-50 bp next year. J.P. Morgan Research forecasts somewhat less tightening, with the top of the target range peaking at 3.5% by the first quarter of 2023. A 50 or 75 bp hike is expected in July and September, followed by a 25 bp cadence until that range is reached.

The move in long-term yields has even exceeded the 1994 experience

This chart shows how much 10-year Treasury yields have moved before and after Fed tightening, with yields climbing the most this year compared to the previous four tightening cycles.

The hawkish shift from the Fed since late last year has contributed to a significant tightening in financial conditions, including dollar appreciation, a jump in mortgage rates and a drop in equity prices.

“Our forecast expects the Fed to be largely successful in engineering a soft landing, at least through the end of next year. We anticipate GDP growth moderates to a below-potential pace by the end of 2023 and job growth slows enough so that the unemployment rate steadies out and then drifts gradually higher late in 2023. Inflation is also expected to moderate noticeably,” said Jay Barry, Head of U.S. Dollar Government Bond Strategy at J.P. Morgan.

In the second half of 2022, the developed market (DM) rates market, excluding the U.S., will likely face a tug of war between central banks that are starting the summer with a clear strong bias to deliver more aggressive policy rate normalization and a growth outlook that will start to feel the pressure of the global tightening. Inflation pressures are likely to ease towards the end of the year and lower yields are expected in 2H22 than current levels seen in Germany, the Antipodean and modestly in U.K., as the market will start to challenge the longevity of the hiking cycle in mid to late 2023.

In the Euro area, the ECB is expected to deliver a policy rate hike at each meeting between now and year end, with 25 bp as the benchmark move, with the exception of the September meeting, where J.P. Morgan forecasts a 50 bp hike. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read J.P. Morgan research reports related to its contents for more information, including important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication.

This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise.

This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. Copyright 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

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Equity research in-depth: How the disruptive power of technology can remake the economy

There’s a lot of talk about the disruptive power of technology, but what does that mean, exactly? We think of technology less as a sector and more as a secular force that will affect every corner of the economy, spurring shifts in market share and market capitalization, and generating opportunities for wealth creation (and destruction).

Over the last four decades, waves of innovation have transformed the power of technology, with each wave building on the previous one, creating a new crop of corporate winners and losers ( Exhibit 1 ).Across sectors and industries, more businesses have become more effective in leveraging new technologies to disrupt their markets. What’s more, these disruptors are blurring the lines between sector classifications. As we enter a new era defined by artificial intelligence (AI), we see these trends accelerating as companies build proprietary platforms to target each sector by drawing on more powerful and unique data collection, computing infrastructure and software.

The roster of winners has changed dramatically over the past 40 years

Exhibit 1: Leading technology companies, 1980–2020

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of September 30, 2020. Market capitalization in USD billions. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.  J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all of the aforementioned securities. Past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator for current and future performance.

In many ways, Amazon is the poster child for this tech-enabled industry assault, but it’s hardly alone. Square builds platforms that are disrupting services historically provided by financial institutions. Electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla deploys a massive fleet advantage to create a data moat in autonomous driving. And medical device maker Dexcom uses massive datasets in glucose monitoring to position for new health care offerings. We envision a future where virtually every company uses significantly more software and technology infrastructure, leading to greater efficiencies, competitive advantages and enhanced consumer relationships. 

We are reminded of a theory pioneered by Ray Kurzweil, a futurist and inventor, called the law of accelerating returns. Essentially, the theory states that society advances technologically at an accelerating rate over time. Consistent with this exponential path of advancement, the 21 st century may see 1,000 times greater technological advancement than the previous century. 

As we examine the disruptive power of technology, here are some areas of our focus. 

Secular shift: Artificial intelligence and machine learning 

Without question, machine learning is spurring an acceleration of innovation across sectors and businesses. An application of AI, machine learning draws on extensive sets of data and large-scale cloud computing infrastructure to produce innovations like the Alexa voice assistant and Tesla’s autonomous driving software. Simply put, machine learning is software writing software, with a level of complexity that humans cannot achieve. As we see it, the long-term success of disruptive businesses will likely be fueled by the same key ingredients driving machine learning: big data, computing ability and software ( Exhibit 2 ).

Machine learning is software writing software, with a level of complexity that humans cannot achieve

Exhibit 2: Drivers of artificial intelligence

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; as of September 30, 2020

With much of the technology in place to solve for the computing and software elements of AI, we see a ripe opportunity for accelerating innovation. Already, hyperscale cloud vendors including Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud Platform and Microsoft Azure offer their customers greater computing efficiency. Additionally, many enterprises across all industries have built data repositories at these hyperscalers or are shifting to a cloud/hybrid model. This provides more agility to accelerate the implementation of more AI workloads. For example, imagine a retailer that has moved its call centers to the cloud, unlocking the value of natural language processing to more quickly direct callers, reduce fraud, prompt agents with the best course of action and even score consumer sentiment. Not only would this allow a company to potentially increase the efficiency of its agents, but it could increase customer satisfaction as well.  

Secular shift: Artificial intelligence changing the global economy 

The disruptive power of technology is vividly on display in the auto industry. Auto companies that are able to collect and harness data to build autonomous driving software and deploy it on hardware will have the greatest opportunity, we believe. Today we see Google and Tesla leading the way in this secular shift.  We think the business models that emerge from here will be analogous to Apple’s vertical integration of software and hardware or the Microsoft Windows (or Google Android) model of licensing software to a large ecosystem of hardware manufacturers. Semiconductor companies will also benefit from this secular shift, given the significant demand for sensing, collecting and processing required for 90 million cars annually ( Exhibit 3 ). 

Merging software and hardware is a game changer

Exhibit 3: Semiconductor content in automobiles

Sources: Gartner, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, company reports. The security highlighted above has been selected based on its significance and is shown for illustrative purposes only. It should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. This should not be assumed that other securities in the portfolio have performed in a similar manner. Past performance is not indicative of future returns . Forecasts, projections and other forward looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations. They are for illustrative purposes only and serve as an indication of what may occur. Given the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with forecasts, projections and other forward statements, actual events, results or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated.

In the financial services sector, payment companies are making effective use of the disruptive power of technology. Think of a merchant that approaches its bank regarding a new loan. The bank has to assess risk based on limited information flow from the merchant, data that is often spotty and incomplete. Compare that with a merchant’s transactional accounting system, operated by a payment company, that may have years of data about the merchant’s business. The system may even be smart enough to “coach” a business owner to more clearly see the benefits of taking out a loan to invest for growth. This is what we are seeing from Square, which is building new models to identify merchants that would most benefit from small business loans by scoring them across specific industry metrics, geography and capabilities. 

In the consumer discretionary sector, many companies have embraced AI. For example, Wayfair uses AI capabilities joined with augmented reality on a mobile device to help consumers visualize how merchandise would look in their homes. Netflix leverages AI to improve recommendation engines and natural language processing to instantly produce closed captions and voice-over in multiple languages. 

In the health care sector, the disruptive power of AI is enabling more efficient drug discovery. Indeed, this year we saw the first AI-designed drug-initiated clinical trials. Elsewhere, Google’s sophisticated image recognition technology can detect metastatic breast cancer and diabetic retinopathy with greater accuracy than existing tools and technology. Lastly, Dexcom has leveraged its data advantage and leading sensor technology to build a competitive moat in continuous glucose monitoring. We see the development of a security system for our body (like the security systems that protect our homes and cars) as Dexcom expands to monitor more vitals over the coming years. 

Investment implications of disruptive technology innovations

Looking ahead, we think the disruptive power of technology will continue to spur shifts in market share within industries, as well as shifts in market capitalization among companies. Over time, it will pave the way for new market leadership. For investors, it will be critical to understand how market leadership might evolve and who the major long-term winners could be. This will require an open mind and the ability to imagine how different an industry or consumer experience might be if technological advancement were to progress at an accelerating pace. Here we believe an active investment approach can be especially useful in identifying which companies are best positioned to benefit from powerful secular shifts.

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The companies mentioned in this article are for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. The use of the companies mentioned herein is in no way an endorsement for J.P.Morgan Asset Management investment management services.

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Top Research Reports for Apple, Berkshire Hathaway & JPMorgan Chase

April 12, 2022 — 01:14 pm EDT

Written by Sheraz Mian for Zacks  ->

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

The Zacks Research Daily presents the best research output of our analyst team. Today's Research Daily features new research reports on 16 major stocks, including Apple Inc. (AAPL), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). These research reports have been hand-picked from the roughly 70 reports published by our analyst team today.   You can see all of today’s research reports here >>>  

Apple shares have gained +24% over the past year against the +8.2% gain for the S&P 500 index on the back of continued momentum in services and robust performance from iPhone, Mac, Wearables, and an expanding App Store ecosystem. Availability of new Mac Studio, new iPad Air and the most affordable iPhone SE. Apple TV+ is gaining recognition with shows like Ted Lasso winning Emmy and CODA wining Academy Award for Best Picture.  

However, Apple did not provide revenue guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, given the uncertainty around the impact of the pandemic. Nevertheless, Apple expects to achieve solid year-over-year revenue growth and set a second quarter revenue record despite significant supply constraints, which it estimates to be less than the fiscal first quarter. (You can read the full research report on Apple here >>> ) Shares of Berkshire Hathaway have outperformed the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry over the past year (+31.8% vs. +19%). The Zacks analyst sees this performance continuing for this property and casualty insurance leader that is effectively financial conglomerate and Warren Buffett's investment vehicle. A strong cash position supports earnings-accretive bolt-on buyouts and indicates the company's financial flexibility. Continued insurance business growth fuels an increase in float, drives earnings, and generates maximum return on equity. The non-insurance businesses are delivering improved results with increased revenues over the past few years. A sturdy capital level provides further impetus. However, exposure to catastrophe loss induces earnings volatility and also affects the property and casualty underwriting results of Berkshire. Huge capital expenditure remains a headwind for the company. (You can read the full research report on Berkshire Hathaway here >>> ) Shares of JPMorgan have underperformed the Zacks Banks - Major Regional industry over the past year (-11.4% vs. -1.7%) on growing uncertainty about the economic outlook in the wake of recent yield-curve developments. We will get a better sense of the operating environment after this week's Q1 earnings report, but estimates have been coming down lately given weak investment banking and trading business and rising expenses.

The ongoing Fed tightening cycle is a net positive for JPMorgan and the peer group as it will help boost margins. The outlook for loan demand also appears favorable, though sustainability of the trend is far from certain.

Zacks analyst believes that the normalization of the trading business is expected to hurt the company's fee income growth, going forward. Further, relatively lower interest rates in the near term are expected to keep weighing on the company’s margins and interest income. Steadily rising operating expenses remain a major near-term headwind.   However, opening new branches, strategic acquisitions/investments, global expansion and digitization initiatives, and decent investment banking (IB) pipeline are expected to keep supporting the company's financials. Additionally, its steady capital deployments look sustainable and will enhance shareholder value. (You can read the full research report on JP Morgan here >>> )

Other noteworthy reports we are featuring today include NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Mastercard Incorporated (MA), and Bank of America Corporation (BAC).  

Sheraz Mian   Director of Research  

Note: Sheraz Mian heads the Zacks Equity Research department and is a well-regarded expert of aggregate earnings. He is frequently quoted in the print and electronic media and publishes the weekly Earnings Trends and Earnings Preview reports. If you want an email notification each time Sheraz publishes a new article, please click here>>>

Today's Must Read

Robust Portfolio, Services Strength to Benefit Apple (AAPL)

Berkshire (BRK.B) Continues to Gain From Insurance Business

Buyouts, Loan Growth Aid JPMorgan (JPM), Higher Costs a Woe

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What’s in an Equity Research Report?

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Even though you can easily find real equity research reports via the magical tool known as “Google,” we’ve continued to get questions on this topic.

Whenever I see the same question over and over again, you know what I do: I bash my head in repeatedly and contemplate jumping off a building…

…and then I write an article to answer the question.

To understand an equity research report, you must understand what goes into a  stock pitch first.

The idea is similar, but an ER report is a “watered-down” version of a stock pitch.

But banks have some very solid reasons for publishing equity research reports:

Why Do Equity Research Reports Matter?

You might remember from previous articles that equity research teams do not spend that much time writing these reports .

Most of their time is spent speaking with management teams and institutional investors and sharing their views on sectors and companies.

However, equity research reports are still important because:

• You do still spend some time doing the required modeling work (~15%) and writing the reports (~20%).
• You might have to write a research report as part of the interview process.

For example, if you apply to an equity research role or an equity research internship , especially in an off-cycle process, you might be asked to draft a short report on a company.

And then in roles outside of ER, you need to know how to interpret reports quickly and extract the key information.

Equity Research Reports: Myth vs. Reality

If you want to understand equity research reports, you have to understand first why banks publish them: to earn higher commissions from trading activity.

A bank wants to encourage institutional investors to buy more shares of the companies it covers.

Doing so generates more trading volume and higher commissions for the bank.

This is why you rarely, if ever, see “Sell” ratings, and why “Hold” ratings are far less common than “Buy” ratings.

Different Types of Equity Research Reports

One last point before getting into the tutorial: There are many different types of research reports.

“Initiating Coverage” reports tend to be long – 50-100 pages or more – and have tons of industry research and data.

“Sector Reports” on entire industries are also very long. And there are other types, which you can read about here .

In this tutorial, we’re focusing on the “Company Update” or “Company Note”-type reports, which are the most common ones.

The Full Tutorial, Video, and Sample Equity Research Reports

For our full walk-through of equity research reports, please see the video below:

Table of Contents:

• 1:43: Part 1: Stock Pitches vs. Equity Research Reports
• 6:00: Part 2: The 4 Main Differences in Research Reports
• 12:46: Part 3: Sample Reports and the Typical Sections
• 20:53: Recap and Summary

You can get the reports and documents referenced in the video here:

• Equity Research Report – Jazz Pharmaceuticals [JAZZ] – OUTPERFORM [BUY] Recommendation [PDF]
• Equity Research Report – Shawbrook [SHAW] – NEUTRAL [HOLD] Recommendation [PDF]
• Equity Research Reports vs. Stock Pitches – Slides [PDF]

If you want the text version instead, keep reading:

Watered-Down Stock Pitches

You should think of equity research reports as “watered-down stock pitches.”

If you’ve forgotten, a hedge fund or asset management stock pitch ( sample stock pitch here ) has the following components:

• Part 1: Recommendation
• Part 2: Company Background
• Part 3: Investment Thesis
• Part 4: Catalysts
• Part 5: Valuation
• Part 6: Investment Risks and How to Mitigate Them
• Part 7: The Worst-Case Scenario and How to Avoid It

In a stock pitch, you’ll spend most of your time and energy on the Catalysts, Valuation, and Investment Risks because you want to express a VERY different view of the company .

For example, the company’s stock price is $100, but you believe it’s worth only $50 because it’s about to report earnings 80% lower than expectations.

Therefore, you recommend shorting the stock. You also recommend purchasing call options at an exercise price of $125 to limit your losses to 25% if the stock moves in the opposite direction.

In an equity research report, you’ll still express a view of the company that’s different from the consensus, but your view won’t be dramatically different.

You’ll spend more time on the Company Background and Valuation sections, and far less time and space on the Catalysts and Risk Factors. And you won’t even write a Worst-Case Scenario section.

If a company seems overvalued by 50%, a research analyst would probably write a “Hold” recommendation, say that there’s “uncertainty around several customers,” and claim that the company’s current market value is appropriate.

Oh, and by the way, one risk factor is that the company might report lower-than-expected earnings.

The Four Main Differences in Equity Research Reports

The main differences are as follows:

1) There’s More Emphasis on Recent Results and Announcements

For example, how does a recent product announcement, clinical trial result, or earnings report impact the company?

You’ll almost always see recent news and updates on the first page of a research report:

These factors may play a role in hedge fund stock pitches as well, but more so in short recommendations since timing is more important there.

2) Far-Outside-the-Mainstream Views Are Less Common

One comical example of this trend is how all 15 equity research analysts covering Enron rated it a “buy” right before it collapsed :

Sell-side analysts are far less likely to point out that the emperor has no clothes than buy-side analysts.

3) Research Reports Give “Target Prices” Rather Than Target Price Ranges

For example, the company is trading at $50.00 right now, but we expect its price to increase to exactly $75.00 in the next twelve months.

This idea is completely ridiculous because valuation is always about the range of possible outcomes, not a specific outcome.

Despite horrendously low accuracy , this practice continues.

To be fair, many analysts do give target prices in different cases, which is an improvement:

4) The Investment Thesis, Catalysts, and Risk Factors Are “Looser”

These sections tend to be “afterthoughts” in most reports.

For example, the bank might give a few reasons why it expects the company’s share price to rise: the company will capture more market share than expected, it will be able to increase its product prices more rapidly than expected, and a competitor is about to go bankrupt.

However, the sell-side analyst will not tie these factors to specific share-price impacts as a buy-side analyst would.

Similarly, the report might mention catalysts and investment risks, but there won’t be a link to a specific valuation impact from each factor.

So the typical stock pitch logic (“We think there’s a 50% chance of gaining 80% and a 50% chance of losing 20%”) won’t be spelled out explicitly:

Your Sample Equity Research Reports

To illustrate these concepts, I’m sharing two equity research reports from our financial modeling courses :

The first one is from the valuation case study in our Advanced Financial Modeling course , and the second one is from the main case study in our Bank Modeling course .

These are comprehensive examples, backed by industry data and outside research, but if you want a shorter/simpler example you can recreate in a few hours, the Core Financial Modeling course has just that.

In each case, we started by creating traditional HF/AM stock pitches and valuations and then made our views weaker in the research reports.

The Typical Sections of an Equity Research Report

So let’s briefly go through the main sections of these reports, using the two examples above:

Page 1: Update, Rating, Price Target, and Recent Results

The first page of an “Update” report states the bank’s recommendation (Buy, Hold, or Sell, sometimes with slightly different terminology), and gives recent updates on the company.

For example, in both these reports we reference recent earnings results from the companies and expectations for the next fiscal year:

We also give a “target price,” explain where it comes from, and give our estimates for the company’s key financial metrics.

We mention catalysts in both reports, but we don’t link anything to a specific valuation impact.

One problem with providing a specific “target price” is that it must be based on specific multiples and specific assumptions in a DCF or DDM.

So with Jazz, we explain that the $170.00 target is based on 20.7x and 15.3x EV/EBITDA multiples for the comps, and a discount rate of 8.07% and Terminal FCF growth rate of 0.3% in the DCF.

Next: Operations and Financial Summary

Next, you’ll see a section with lots of graphs and charts detailing the company’s financial performance, market share, and important metrics and ratios.

For a pharmaceutical company like Jazz, you might see revenue by product, pricing and # of patients per product per year, and EBITDA margins.

For a commercial bank like Shawbrook, you might see loan growth, interest rates, interest income and net income, and regulatory capital figures such as the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) and Tangible Common Equity (TCE) ratios:

This section of the report explains how the analyst or equity research associate forecast the company’s performance and came up with the numbers used in the valuation.

The valuation section is the one that’s most similar in a research report and a stock pitch.

In both fields, you explain how you arrived at the company’s implied value, which usually involves pasting in a DCF or DDM analysis and comparable companies and transactions.

The methodologies are the same, but the assumptions might differ substantially.

In research, you’re also more likely to point to specific multiples, such as the 75 th percentile EV/EBITDA multiple, and explain why they are the most meaningful ones.

For example, you might argue that since the company’s growth rates and margins exceed the medians of the set, it deserves to be valued at the 75 th percentile multiples rather than the median multiples:

Investment Thesis, Catalysts, and Risks

This section is short, and it is more of an afterthought than anything else.

We do give reasons for why these companies might be mis-priced, but the reasoning isn’t that detailed.

For example, in the Shawbrook report we state that the U.K. mortgage market might slow down and that regulatory changes might reduce the market size and the company’s market share:

Those are legitimate catalysts, but the report doesn’t explain their share-price impact in the same way that a stock pitch would.

Finally, banks present Investment Risks mostly so they can say, “Well, we warned you there were risks and that our recommendation might be wrong.”

By contrast, buy-side analysts present Investment Risks so they can say, “There is a legitimate chance we could lose 50% – let’s hedge against that risk with options or other investments so that our fund does not collapse .”

How These Reports Both Differ from the Corresponding Stock Pitches

The Jazz equity research report corresponds to a “Long” pitch that’s much stronger:

• We estimate its intrinsic value as $180 – $220 / share , up from $170 in the report.
• We estimate the per-share impact of each catalyst: price increases add 15% to the share price, more patients from marketing efforts add 10%, and later-than-expected generics competition adds 15%.
• We also estimate the per-share impact from the risk factors and conclude that in the worst case , the company’s share price might decline from $130 to $75-$80. But in all likelihood, even if we’re wrong, the company is simply valued appropriately at $130.
• And then we explain how to hedge against these risks with put options.

The same differences apply to the Shawbrook research report vs. the stock pitch, but the stock pitch there is a “Short” recommendation where we claim that the company is overvalued by 30-50%.

And that sums up the differences perfectly: A Short recommendation with 30-50% downside in a stock pitch turns into a “Hold” recommendation with roughly equal upside and downside in a sell-side research report.

I’ve been harsh on equity research here, but I don’t want to disparage it too much.

There are many positives: You do get more creativity than in IB, it might be better for hedge fund or asset management exits, and it’s more fun to follow companies than to grind through grunt work on deals.

But no matter how you slice it, most equity research reports are watered-down stock pitches.

So, make sure you understand the “strong stuff” first before you downgrade – even if your long-term goal is equity research.

You might be interested in:

• The Equity Research Analyst Career Path: The Best Escape from a Ph.D. Program, or a Pathway into the Abyss?
• Private Equity Regulation : 2023 Changes and Impact on Finance Careers
• Stock Pitch Guide: How to Pitch a Stock in Interviews and Win Offers

About the Author

Brian DeChesare is the Founder of Mergers & Inquisitions and Breaking Into Wall Street . In his spare time, he enjoys lifting weights, running, traveling, obsessively watching TV shows, and defeating Sauron.

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Read below or Add a comment

15 thoughts on “ What’s in an Equity Research Report? ”

Hi Brian, what softwares are available to publish Research Reports?

We use Word templates. Some large banks have specialized/custom programs, but not sure how common they are.

Is it possible if you can send me a template in word of an equity report? It will help the graduate stock management fund a lot at Umass Boston.

We only have PDF versions for these, but Word should be able to open any PDF reasonably well.

Do you also provide a pre constructed version of an ER in word?

We have editable examples of equity research reports in Word, but we generally only share PDF versions on this site.

Hey Brian Can you please help me with coverage initiated reports on oil companies. I could not find them on the net. I need to them to get equity research experience, after which only I will be able to get into the field. I searched but reports could not be found even for a price. Thanks

We have an example of an oil & gas stock pitch on this site… do a search…

https://mergersandinquisitions.com/oil-gas-stock-pitch/

Beyond that, sorry, we cannot look for reports and then share them with you or we’d be inundated with requests to do that every day.

No worries. Thanks!

Hi! Brian! Do u know how investment bankers design and layout an equity research? the software they use. like MS Word, Adobe Indesign or something…? And how to create and layout one? Thanks

where can I get free equity research report? I am a Chinese student and now study in Australia. Is the Morning Star a good resource for research report?

Get a TD Ameritrade to access free reports there for certain companies.

How do you view the ER industry since the trading commission has been down 50% since 2007. And there are new in coming regulation governing the ER reports have to explicitly priced and funds need to pay for the report explicity rather than as a service comes free with brokerage?

In addition the whole S&T environment is becoming highly automated.

People have been predicting the death of equity research for over a decade, but it’s still here. It may not be around in 100 years, but it will still be around in another 10 years, though it will be smaller and less relevant.

Yes, things are becoming more automated, but the actual job of an equity research analyst or associate hasn’t changed dramatically. A machine can’t speak with investors to assess their sentiment on a company – only humans can do that.

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