global warming review essay

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Essay on Global Warming

Updated on
Apr 27, 2024

Being able to write an essay is an integral part of mastering any language. Essays form an integral part of many academic and scholastic exams like the SAT , and UPSC amongst many others. It is a crucial evaluative part of English proficiency tests as well like IELTS , TOEFL , etc. Major essays are meant to emphasize public issues of concern that can have significant consequences on the world. To understand the concept of Global Warming and its causes and effects, we must first examine the many factors that influence the planet’s temperature and what this implies for the world’s future. Here’s an unbiased look at the essay on Global Warming and other essential related topics.

Short Essay on Global Warming and Climate Change?

Since the industrial and scientific revolutions, Earth’s resources have been gradually depleted. Furthermore, the start of the world’s population’s exponential expansion is particularly hard on the environment. Simply put, as the population’s need for consumption grows, so does the use of natural resources , as well as the waste generated by that consumption.

Climate change has been one of the most significant long-term consequences of this. Climate change is more than just the rise or fall of global temperatures; it also affects rain cycles, wind patterns, cyclone frequencies, sea levels, and other factors. It has an impact on all major life groupings on the planet.

What is Global Warming?

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century, primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels . The greenhouse gases consist of methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, carbon dioxide, water vapour, and chlorofluorocarbons. The weather prediction has been becoming more complex with every passing year, with seasons more indistinguishable, and the general temperatures hotter.

The number of hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, floods, etc., has risen steadily since the onset of the 21st century. The supervillain behind all these changes is Global Warming. The name is quite self-explanatory; it means the rise in the temperature of the Earth.

What are the Causes of Global Warming?

According to recent studies, many scientists believe the following are the primary four causes of global warming:

Deforestation
Greenhouse emissions
Carbon emissions per capita

Extreme global warming is causing natural disasters , which can be seen all around us. One of the causes of global warming is the extreme release of greenhouse gases that become trapped on the earth’s surface, causing the temperature to rise. Similarly, volcanoes contribute to global warming by spewing excessive CO2 into the atmosphere.

The increase in population is one of the major causes of Global Warming. This increase in population also leads to increased air pollution . Automobiles emit a lot of CO2, which remains in the atmosphere. This increase in population is also causing deforestation, which contributes to global warming.

The earth’s surface emits energy into the atmosphere in the form of heat, keeping the balance with the incoming energy. Global warming depletes the ozone layer, bringing about the end of the world. There is a clear indication that increased global warming will result in the extinction of all life on Earth’s surface.

Also Read: Land, Soil, Water, Natural Vegetation, and Wildlife Resources

Solutions for Global Warming

Of course, industries and multinational conglomerates emit more carbon than the average citizen. Nonetheless, activism and community effort are the only viable ways to slow the worsening effects of global warming. Furthermore, at the state or government level, world leaders must develop concrete plans and step-by-step programmes to ensure that no further harm is done to the environment in general.

Although we are almost too late to slow the rate of global warming, finding the right solution is critical. Everyone, from individuals to governments, must work together to find a solution to Global Warming. Some of the factors to consider are pollution control, population growth, and the use of natural resources.

One very important contribution you can make is to reduce your use of plastic. Plastic is the primary cause of global warming, and recycling it takes years. Another factor to consider is deforestation, which will aid in the control of global warming. More tree planting should be encouraged to green the environment. Certain rules should also govern industrialization. Building industries in green zones that affect plants and species should be prohibited.

Effects of Global Warming

Global warming is a real problem that many people want to disprove to gain political advantage. However, as global citizens, we must ensure that only the truth is presented in the media.

This decade has seen a significant impact from global warming. The two most common phenomena observed are glacier retreat and arctic shrinkage. Glaciers are rapidly melting. These are clear manifestations of climate change.

Another significant effect of global warming is the rise in sea level. Flooding is occurring in low-lying areas as a result of sea-level rise. Many countries have experienced extreme weather conditions. Every year, we have unusually heavy rain, extreme heat and cold, wildfires, and other natural disasters.

Similarly, as global warming continues, marine life is being severely impacted. This is causing the extinction of marine species as well as other problems. Furthermore, changes are expected in coral reefs, which will face extinction in the coming years. These effects will intensify in the coming years, effectively halting species expansion. Furthermore, humans will eventually feel the negative effects of Global Warming.

Also Read: Concept of Sustainable Development

Sample Essays on Global Warming

Here are some sample essays on Global Warming:

Essay on Global Warming Paragraph in 100 – 150 words

Global Warming is caused by the increase of carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere and is a result of human activities that have been causing harm to our environment for the past few centuries now. Global Warming is something that can’t be ignored and steps have to be taken to tackle the situation globally. The average temperature is constantly rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius over the last few years.

The best method to prevent future damage to the earth, cutting down more forests should be banned and Afforestation should be encouraged. Start by planting trees near your homes and offices, participate in events, and teach the importance of planting trees. It is impossible to undo the damage but it is possible to stop further harm.

Essay on Global Warming in 250 Words

Over a long period, it is observed that the temperature of the earth is increasing. This affected wildlife, animals, humans, and every living organism on earth. Glaciers have been melting, and many countries have started water shortages, flooding, and erosion and all this is because of global warming.

No one can be blamed for global warming except for humans. Human activities such as gases released from power plants, transportation, and deforestation have increased gases such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth’s atmosphere. The main question is how can we control the current situation and build a better world for future generations. It starts with little steps by every individual.

Start using cloth bags made from sustainable materials for all shopping purposes, instead of using high-watt lights use energy-efficient bulbs, switch off the electricity, don’t waste water, abolish deforestation and encourage planting more trees. Shift the use of energy from petroleum or other fossil fuels to wind and solar energy. Instead of throwing out the old clothes donate them to someone so that it is recycled.

Donate old books, don’t waste paper. Above all, spread awareness about global warming. Every little thing a person does towards saving the earth will contribute in big or small amounts. We must learn that 1% effort is better than no effort. Pledge to take care of Mother Nature and speak up about global warming.

Essay on Global Warming in 500 Words

Global warming isn’t a prediction, it is happening! A person denying it or unaware of it is in the most simple terms complicit. Do we have another planet to live on? Unfortunately, we have been bestowed with this one planet only that can sustain life yet over the years we have turned a blind eye to the plight it is in. Global warming is not an abstract concept but a global phenomenon occurring ever so slowly even at this moment. Global Warming is a phenomenon that is occurring every minute resulting in a gradual increase in the Earth’s overall climate. Brought about by greenhouse gases that trap the solar radiation in the atmosphere, global warming can change the entire map of the earth, displacing areas, flooding many countries, and destroying multiple lifeforms. Extreme weather is a direct consequence of global warming but it is not an exhaustive consequence. There are virtually limitless effects of global warming which are all harmful to life on earth. The sea level is increasing by 0.12 inches per year worldwide. This is happening because of the melting of polar ice caps because of global warming. This has increased the frequency of floods in many lowland areas and has caused damage to coral reefs. The Arctic is one of the worst-hit areas affected by global warming. Air quality has been adversely affected and the acidity of the seawater has also increased causing severe damage to marine life forms. Severe natural disasters are brought about by global warming which has had dire effects on life and property. As long as mankind produces greenhouse gases, global warming will continue to accelerate. The consequences are felt at a much smaller scale which will increase to become drastic shortly. The power to save the day lies in the hands of humans, the need is to seize the day. Energy consumption should be reduced on an individual basis. Fuel-efficient cars and other electronics should be encouraged to reduce the wastage of energy sources. This will also improve air quality and reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Global warming is an evil that can only be defeated when fought together. It is better late than never. If we all take steps today, we will have a much brighter future tomorrow. Global warming is the bane of our existence and various policies have come up worldwide to fight it but that is not enough. The actual difference is made when we work at an individual level to fight it. Understanding its import now is crucial before it becomes an irrevocable mistake. Exterminating global warming is of utmost importance and each one of us is as responsible for it as the next.

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Essay on Global Warming UPSC

Always hear about global warming everywhere, but do we know what it is? The evil of the worst form, global warming is a phenomenon that can affect life more fatally. Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s temperature as a result of various human activities. The planet is gradually getting hotter and threatening the existence of lifeforms on it. Despite being relentlessly studied and researched, global warming for the majority of the population remains an abstract concept of science. It is this concept that over the years has culminated in making global warming a stark reality and not a concept covered in books. Global warming is not caused by one sole reason that can be curbed. Multifarious factors cause global warming most of which are a part of an individual’s daily existence. Burning of fuels for cooking, in vehicles, and for other conventional uses, a large amount of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, and methane amongst many others is produced which accelerates global warming. Rampant deforestation also results in global warming as lesser green cover results in an increased presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is a greenhouse gas. Finding a solution to global warming is of immediate importance. Global warming is a phenomenon that has to be fought unitedly. Planting more trees can be the first step that can be taken toward warding off the severe consequences of global warming. Increasing the green cover will result in regulating the carbon cycle. There should be a shift from using nonrenewable energy to renewable energy such as wind or solar energy which causes less pollution and thereby hinder the acceleration of global warming. Reducing energy needs at an individual level and not wasting energy in any form is the most important step to be taken against global warming. The warning bells are tolling to awaken us from the deep slumber of complacency we have slipped into. Humans can fight against nature and it is high time we acknowledged that. With all our scientific progress and technological inventions, fighting off the negative effects of global warming is implausible. We have to remember that we do not inherit the earth from our ancestors but borrow it from our future generations and the responsibility lies on our shoulders to bequeath them a healthy planet for life to exist.

Climate Change and Global Warming Essay

Global Warming and Climate Change are two sides of the same coin. Both are interrelated with each other and are two issues of major concern worldwide. Greenhouse gases released such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth’s atmosphere cause Global Warming which leads to climate change. Black holes have started to form in the ozone layer that protects the earth from harmful ultraviolet rays.

Human activities have created climate change and global warming. Industrial waste and fumes are the major contributors to global warming.

Another factor affecting is the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and also one of the reasons for climate change. Global warming has resulted in shrinking mountain glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland, and the Arctic and causing climate change. Switching from the use of fossil fuels to energy sources like wind and solar.

When buying any electronic appliance buy the best quality with energy savings stars. Don’t waste water and encourage rainwater harvesting in your community.

Tips to Write an Essay

Writing an effective essay needs skills that few people possess and even fewer know how to implement. While writing an essay can be an assiduous task that can be unnerving at times, some key pointers can be inculcated to draft a successful essay. These involve focusing on the structure of the essay, planning it out well, and emphasizing crucial details.

Mentioned below are some pointers that can help you write better structure and more thoughtful essays that will get across to your readers:

Prepare an outline for the essay to ensure continuity and relevance and no break in the structure of the essay
Decide on a thesis statement that will form the basis of your essay. It will be the point of your essay and help readers understand your contention
Follow the structure of an introduction, a detailed body followed by a conclusion so that the readers can comprehend the essay in a particular manner without any dissonance.
Make your beginning catchy and include solutions in your conclusion to make the essay insightful and lucrative to read
Reread before putting it out and add your flair to the essay to make it more personal and thereby unique and intriguing for readers

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Ans. Both natural and man-made factors contribute to global warming. The natural one also contains methane gas, volcanic eruptions, and greenhouse gases. Deforestation, mining, livestock raising, burning fossil fuels, and other man-made causes are next.

Ans. The government and the general public can work together to stop global warming. Trees must be planted more often, and deforestation must be prohibited. Auto usage needs to be curbed, and recycling needs to be promoted.

Ans. Switching to renewable energy sources , adopting sustainable farming, transportation, and energy methods, and conserving water and other natural resources.

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Digvijay Singh

Having 2+ years of experience in educational content writing, withholding a Bachelor's in Physical Education and Sports Science and a strong interest in writing educational content for students enrolled in domestic and foreign study abroad programmes. I believe in offering a distinct viewpoint to the table, to help students deal with the complexities of both domestic and foreign educational systems. Through engaging storytelling and insightful analysis, I aim to inspire my readers to embark on their educational journeys, whether abroad or at home, and to make the most of every learning opportunity that comes their way.

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A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

Review Article
Published: 04 April 2022
Volume 29 , pages 42539–42559, ( 2022 )

Cite this article

Kashif Abbass 1 ,
Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim 2 ,
Huaming Song 1 ,
Muntasir Murshed ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9872-8742 3 , 4 ,
Haider Mahmood ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6474-4338 5 &
Ijaz Younis 1

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Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the agricultural sector’s vulnerability is a globally concerning scenario, as sufficient production and food supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. In turn, it is challenging the global feeding patterns, particularly in countries with agriculture as an integral part of their economy and total productivity. Climate change has also put the integrity and survival of many species at stake due to shifts in optimum temperature ranges, thereby accelerating biodiversity loss by progressively changing the ecosystem structures. Climate variations increase the likelihood of particular food and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, and a recent example is a coronavirus pandemic. Climate change also accelerates the enigma of antimicrobial resistance, another threat to human health due to the increasing incidence of resistant pathogenic infections. Besides, the global tourism industry is devastated as climate change impacts unfavorable tourism spots. The methodology investigates hypothetical scenarios of climate variability and attempts to describe the quality of evidence to facilitate readers’ careful, critical engagement. Secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability. To better understand the problem, gathered the information in this report from various media outlets, research agencies, policy papers, newspapers, and other sources. This review is a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs. According to the findings, government involvement is necessary for the country’s long-term development through strict accountability of resources and regulations implemented in the past to generate cutting-edge climate policy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change must be of the utmost importance, and hence, this global threat requires global commitment to address its dreadful implications to ensure global sustenance.

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A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan

Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.

Introduction

Worldwide observed and anticipated climatic changes for the twenty-first century and global warming are significant global changes that have been encountered during the past 65 years. Climate change (CC) is an inter-governmental complex challenge globally with its influence over various components of the ecological, environmental, socio-political, and socio-economic disciplines (Adger et al. 2005 ; Leal Filho et al. 2021 ; Feliciano et al. 2022 ). Climate change involves heightened temperatures across numerous worlds (Battisti and Naylor 2009 ; Schuurmans 2021 ; Weisheimer and Palmer 2005 ; Yadav et al. 2015 ). With the onset of the industrial revolution, the problem of earth climate was amplified manifold (Leppänen et al. 2014 ). It is reported that the immediate attention and due steps might increase the probability of overcoming its devastating impacts. It is not plausible to interpret the exact consequences of climate change (CC) on a sectoral basis (Izaguirre et al. 2021 ; Jurgilevich et al. 2017 ), which is evident by the emerging level of recognition plus the inclusion of climatic uncertainties at both local and national level of policymaking (Ayers et al. 2014 ).

Climate change is characterized based on the comprehensive long-haul temperature and precipitation trends and other components such as pressure and humidity level in the surrounding environment. Besides, the irregular weather patterns, retreating of global ice sheets, and the corresponding elevated sea level rise are among the most renowned international and domestic effects of climate change (Lipczynska-Kochany 2018 ; Michel et al. 2021 ; Murshed and Dao 2020 ). Before the industrial revolution, natural sources, including volcanoes, forest fires, and seismic activities, were regarded as the distinct sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, and H 2 O into the atmosphere (Murshed et al. 2020 ; Hussain et al. 2020 ; Sovacool et al. 2021 ; Usman and Balsalobre-Lorente 2022 ; Murshed 2022 ). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) struck a major agreement to tackle climate change and accelerate and intensify the actions and investments required for a sustainable low-carbon future at Conference of the Parties (COP-21) in Paris on December 12, 2015. The Paris Agreement expands on the Convention by bringing all nations together for the first time in a single cause to undertake ambitious measures to prevent climate change and adapt to its impacts, with increased funding to assist developing countries in doing so. As so, it marks a turning point in the global climate fight. The core goal of the Paris Agreement is to improve the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping the global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C over pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C (Sharma et al. 2020 ; Sharif et al. 2020 ; Chien et al. 2021 .

Furthermore, the agreement aspires to strengthen nations’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and align financing flows with low GHG emissions and climate-resilient paths (Shahbaz et al. 2019 ; Anwar et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2022a ). To achieve these lofty goals, adequate financial resources must be mobilized and provided, as well as a new technology framework and expanded capacity building, allowing developing countries and the most vulnerable countries to act under their respective national objectives. The agreement also establishes a more transparent action and support mechanism. All Parties are required by the Paris Agreement to do their best through “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the coming years (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2020 ). It includes obligations that all Parties regularly report on their emissions and implementation activities. A global stock-take will be conducted every five years to review collective progress toward the agreement’s goal and inform the Parties’ future individual actions. The Paris Agreement became available for signature on April 22, 2016, Earth Day, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. On November 4, 2016, it went into effect 30 days after the so-called double threshold was met (ratification by 55 nations accounting for at least 55% of world emissions). More countries have ratified and continue to ratify the agreement since then, bringing 125 Parties in early 2017. To fully operationalize the Paris Agreement, a work program was initiated in Paris to define mechanisms, processes, and recommendations on a wide range of concerns (Murshed et al. 2021 ). Since 2016, Parties have collaborated in subsidiary bodies (APA, SBSTA, and SBI) and numerous formed entities. The Conference of the Parties functioning as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) convened for the first time in November 2016 in Marrakesh in conjunction with COP22 and made its first two resolutions. The work plan is scheduled to be finished by 2018. Some mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the emission in the prospective of Paris agreement are following firstly, a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, secondly, to aim to limit the rise to 1.5 °C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change, thirdly, on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries, lastly, to undertake rapid reductions after that under the best available science, to achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century. On the other side, some adaptation strategies are; strengthening societies’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and to continue & expand international assistance for developing nations’ adaptation.

However, anthropogenic activities are currently regarded as most accountable for CC (Murshed et al. 2022 ). Apart from the industrial revolution, other anthropogenic activities include excessive agricultural operations, which further involve the high use of fuel-based mechanization, burning of agricultural residues, burning fossil fuels, deforestation, national and domestic transportation sectors, etc. (Huang et al. 2016 ). Consequently, these anthropogenic activities lead to climatic catastrophes, damaging local and global infrastructure, human health, and total productivity. Energy consumption has mounted GHGs levels concerning warming temperatures as most of the energy production in developing countries comes from fossil fuels (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2022 ; Usman et al. 2022b ; Abbass et al. 2021a ; Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Furuya 2022 ).

This review aims to highlight the effects of climate change in a socio-scientific aspect by analyzing the existing literature on various sectorial pieces of evidence globally that influence the environment. Although this review provides a thorough examination of climate change and its severe affected sectors that pose a grave danger for global agriculture, biodiversity, health, economy, forestry, and tourism, and to purpose some practical prophylactic measures and mitigation strategies to be adapted as sound substitutes to survive from climate change (CC) impacts. The societal implications of irregular weather patterns and other effects of climate changes are discussed in detail. Some numerous sustainable mitigation measures and adaptation practices and techniques at the global level are discussed in this review with an in-depth focus on its economic, social, and environmental aspects. Methods of data collection section are included in the supplementary information.

Review methodology

Related study and its objectives.

Today, we live an ordinary life in the beautiful digital, globalized world where climate change has a decisive role. What happens in one country has a massive influence on geographically far apart countries, which points to the current crisis known as COVID-19 (Sarkar et al. 2021 ). The most dangerous disease like COVID-19 has affected the world’s climate changes and economic conditions (Abbass et al. 2022 ; Pirasteh-Anosheh et al. 2021 ). The purpose of the present study is to review the status of research on the subject, which is based on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures” by systematically reviewing past published and unpublished research work. Furthermore, the current study seeks to comment on research on the same topic and suggest future research on the same topic. Specifically, the present study aims: The first one is, organize publications to make them easy and quick to find. Secondly, to explore issues in this area, propose an outline of research for future work. The third aim of the study is to synthesize the previous literature on climate change, various sectors, and their mitigation measurement. Lastly , classify the articles according to the different methods and procedures that have been adopted.

Review methodology for reviewers

This review-based article followed systematic literature review techniques that have proved the literature review as a rigorous framework (Benita 2021 ; Tranfield et al. 2003 ). Moreover, we illustrate in Fig. 1 the search method that we have started for this research. First, finalized the research theme to search literature (Cooper et al. 2018 ). Second, used numerous research databases to search related articles and download from the database (Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus Index Journals, Emerald, Elsevier Science Direct, Springer, and Sciverse). We focused on various articles, with research articles, feedback pieces, short notes, debates, and review articles published in scholarly journals. Reports used to search for multiple keywords such as “Climate Change,” “Mitigation and Adaptation,” “Department of Agriculture and Human Health,” “Department of Biodiversity and Forestry,” etc.; in summary, keyword list and full text have been made. Initially, the search for keywords yielded a large amount of literature.

Source : constructed by authors

Methodology search for finalized articles for investigations.

Since 2020, it has been impossible to review all the articles found; some restrictions have been set for the literature exhibition. The study searched 95 articles on a different database mentioned above based on the nature of the study. It excluded 40 irrelevant papers due to copied from a previous search after readings tiles, abstract and full pieces. The criteria for inclusion were: (i) articles focused on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures,” and (ii) the search key terms related to study requirements. The complete procedure yielded 55 articles for our study. We repeat our search on the “Web of Science and Google Scholars” database to enhance the search results and check the referenced articles.

In this study, 55 articles are reviewed systematically and analyzed for research topics and other aspects, such as the methods, contexts, and theories used in these studies. Furthermore, this study analyzes closely related areas to provide unique research opportunities in the future. The study also discussed future direction opportunities and research questions by understanding the research findings climate changes and other affected sectors. The reviewed paper framework analysis process is outlined in Fig. 2 .

Framework of the analysis Process.

Natural disasters and climate change’s socio-economic consequences

Natural and environmental disasters can be highly variable from year to year; some years pass with very few deaths before a significant disaster event claims many lives (Symanski et al. 2021 ). Approximately 60,000 people globally died from natural disasters each year on average over the past decade (Ritchie and Roser 2014 ; Wiranata and Simbolon 2021 ). So, according to the report, around 0.1% of global deaths. Annual variability in the number and share of deaths from natural disasters in recent decades are shown in Fig. 3 . The number of fatalities can be meager—sometimes less than 10,000, and as few as 0.01% of all deaths. But shock events have a devastating impact: the 1983–1985 famine and drought in Ethiopia; the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami; Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in 2008; and the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake in Haiti and now recent example is COVID-19 pandemic (Erman et al. 2021 ). These events pushed global disaster deaths to over 200,000—more than 0.4% of deaths in these years. Low-frequency, high-impact events such as earthquakes and tsunamis are not preventable, but such high losses of human life are. Historical evidence shows that earlier disaster detection, more robust infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and response programmers have substantially reduced disaster deaths worldwide. Low-income is also the most vulnerable to disasters; improving living conditions, facilities, and response services in these areas would be critical in reducing natural disaster deaths in the coming decades.

Source EMDAT ( 2020 )

Global deaths from natural disasters, 1978 to 2020.

The interior regions of the continent are likely to be impacted by rising temperatures (Dimri et al. 2018 ; Goes et al. 2020 ; Mannig et al. 2018 ; Schuurmans 2021 ). Weather patterns change due to the shortage of natural resources (water), increase in glacier melting, and rising mercury are likely to cause extinction to many planted species (Gampe et al. 2016 ; Mihiretu et al. 2021 ; Shaffril et al. 2018 ).On the other hand, the coastal ecosystem is on the verge of devastation (Perera et al. 2018 ; Phillips 2018 ). The temperature rises, insect disease outbreaks, health-related problems, and seasonal and lifestyle changes are persistent, with a strong probability of these patterns continuing in the future (Abbass et al. 2021c ; Hussain et al. 2018 ). At the global level, a shortage of good infrastructure and insufficient adaptive capacity are hammering the most (IPCC 2013 ). In addition to the above concerns, a lack of environmental education and knowledge, outdated consumer behavior, a scarcity of incentives, a lack of legislation, and the government’s lack of commitment to climate change contribute to the general public’s concerns. By 2050, a 2 to 3% rise in mercury and a drastic shift in rainfall patterns may have serious consequences (Huang et al. 2022 ; Gorst et al. 2018 ). Natural and environmental calamities caused huge losses globally, such as decreased agriculture outputs, rehabilitation of the system, and rebuilding necessary technologies (Ali and Erenstein 2017 ; Ramankutty et al. 2018 ; Yu et al. 2021 ) (Table 1 ). Furthermore, in the last 3 or 4 years, the world has been plagued by smog-related eye and skin diseases, as well as a rise in road accidents due to poor visibility.

Climate change and agriculture

Global agriculture is the ultimate sector responsible for 30–40% of all greenhouse emissions, which makes it a leading industry predominantly contributing to climate warming and significantly impacted by it (Grieg; Mishra et al. 2021 ; Ortiz et al. 2021 ; Thornton and Lipper 2014 ). Numerous agro-environmental and climatic factors that have a dominant influence on agriculture productivity (Pautasso et al. 2012 ) are significantly impacted in response to precipitation extremes including floods, forest fires, and droughts (Huang 2004 ). Besides, the immense dependency on exhaustible resources also fuels the fire and leads global agriculture to become prone to devastation. Godfray et al. ( 2010 ) mentioned that decline in agriculture challenges the farmer’s quality of life and thus a significant factor to poverty as the food and water supplies are critically impacted by CC (Ortiz et al. 2021 ; Rosenzweig et al. 2014 ). As an essential part of the economic systems, especially in developing countries, agricultural systems affect the overall economy and potentially the well-being of households (Schlenker and Roberts 2009 ). According to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, i.e., CH 4, CO 2 , and N 2 O, are increased in the air to extraordinary levels over the last few centuries (Usman and Makhdum 2021 ; Stocker et al. 2013 ). Climate change is the composite outcome of two different factors. The first is the natural causes, and the second is the anthropogenic actions (Karami 2012 ). It is also forecasted that the world may experience a typical rise in temperature stretching from 1 to 3.7 °C at the end of this century (Pachauri et al. 2014 ). The world’s crop production is also highly vulnerable to these global temperature-changing trends as raised temperatures will pose severe negative impacts on crop growth (Reidsma et al. 2009 ). Some of the recent modeling about the fate of global agriculture is briefly described below.

Decline in cereal productivity

Crop productivity will also be affected dramatically in the next few decades due to variations in integral abiotic factors such as temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and CO 2 . These all factors are included in various regulatory instruments like progress and growth, weather-tempted changes, pest invasions (Cammell and Knight 1992 ), accompanying disease snags (Fand et al. 2012 ), water supplies (Panda et al. 2003 ), high prices of agro-products in world’s agriculture industry, and preeminent quantity of fertilizer consumption. Lobell and field ( 2007 ) claimed that from 1962 to 2002, wheat crop output had condensed significantly due to rising temperatures. Therefore, during 1980–2011, the common wheat productivity trends endorsed extreme temperature events confirmed by Gourdji et al. ( 2013 ) around South Asia, South America, and Central Asia. Various other studies (Asseng, Cao, Zhang, and Ludwig 2009 ; Asseng et al. 2013 ; García et al. 2015 ; Ortiz et al. 2021 ) also proved that wheat output is negatively affected by the rising temperatures and also caused adverse effects on biomass productivity (Calderini et al. 1999 ; Sadras and Slafer 2012 ). Hereafter, the rice crop is also influenced by the high temperatures at night. These difficulties will worsen because the temperature will be rising further in the future owing to CC (Tebaldi et al. 2006 ). Another research conducted in China revealed that a 4.6% of rice production per 1 °C has happened connected with the advancement in night temperatures (Tao et al. 2006 ). Moreover, the average night temperature growth also affected rice indicia cultivar’s output pragmatically during 25 years in the Philippines (Peng et al. 2004 ). It is anticipated that the increase in world average temperature will also cause a substantial reduction in yield (Hatfield et al. 2011 ; Lobell and Gourdji 2012 ). In the southern hemisphere, Parry et al. ( 2007 ) noted a rise of 1–4 °C in average daily temperatures at the end of spring season unti the middle of summers, and this raised temperature reduced crop output by cutting down the time length for phenophases eventually reduce the yield (Hatfield and Prueger 2015 ; R. Ortiz 2008 ). Also, world climate models have recommended that humid and subtropical regions expect to be plentiful prey to the upcoming heat strokes (Battisti and Naylor 2009 ). Grain production is the amalgamation of two constituents: the average weight and the grain output/m 2 , however, in crop production. Crop output is mainly accredited to the grain quantity (Araus et al. 2008 ; Gambín and Borrás 2010 ). In the times of grain set, yield resources are mainly strewn between hitherto defined components, i.e., grain usual weight and grain output, which presents a trade-off between them (Gambín and Borrás 2010 ) beside disparities in per grain integration (B. L. Gambín et al. 2006 ). In addition to this, the maize crop is also susceptible to raised temperatures, principally in the flowering stage (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). In reality, the lower grain number is associated with insufficient acclimatization due to intense photosynthesis and higher respiration and the high-temperature effect on the reproduction phenomena (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). During the flowering phase, maize visible to heat (30–36 °C) seemed less anthesis-silking intermissions (Edreira et al. 2011 ). Another research by Dupuis and Dumas ( 1990 ) proved that a drop in spikelet when directly visible to high temperatures above 35 °C in vitro pollination. Abnormalities in kernel number claimed by Vega et al. ( 2001 ) is related to conceded plant development during a flowering phase that is linked with the active ear growth phase and categorized as a critical phase for approximation of kernel number during silking (Otegui and Bonhomme 1998 ).

The retort of rice output to high temperature presents disparities in flowering patterns, and seed set lessens and lessens grain weight (Qasim et al. 2020 ; Qasim, Hammad, Maqsood, Tariq, & Chawla). During the daytime, heat directly impacts flowers which lessens the thesis period and quickens the earlier peak flowering (Tao et al. 2006 ). Antagonistic effect of higher daytime temperature d on pollen sprouting proposed seed set decay, whereas, seed set was lengthily reduced than could be explicated by pollen growing at high temperatures 40◦C (Matsui et al. 2001 ).

The decline in wheat output is linked with higher temperatures, confirmed in numerous studies (Semenov 2009 ; Stone and Nicolas 1994 ). High temperatures fast-track the arrangements of plant expansion (Blum et al. 2001 ), diminution photosynthetic process (Salvucci and Crafts‐Brandner 2004 ), and also considerably affect the reproductive operations (Farooq et al. 2011 ).

The destructive impacts of CC induced weather extremes to deteriorate the integrity of crops (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ), e.g., Spartan cold and extreme fog cause falling and discoloration of betel leaves (Rosenzweig et al. 2001 ), giving them a somehow reddish appearance, squeezing of lemon leaves (Pautasso et al. 2012 ), as well as root rot of pineapple, have reported (Vedwan and Rhoades 2001 ). Henceforth, in tackling the disruptive effects of CC, several short-term and long-term management approaches are the crucial need of time (Fig. 4 ). Moreover, various studies (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ; Patz et al. 2005 ; Pautasso et al. 2012 ) have demonstrated adapting trends such as ameliorating crop diversity can yield better adaptability towards CC.

Schematic description of potential impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and the appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to overcome its impact.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity

Global biodiversity is among the severe victims of CC because it is the fastest emerging cause of species loss. Studies demonstrated that the massive scale species dynamics are considerably associated with diverse climatic events (Abraham and Chain 1988 ; Manes et al. 2021 ; A. M. D. Ortiz et al. 2021 ). Both the pace and magnitude of CC are altering the compatible habitat ranges for living entities of marine, freshwater, and terrestrial regions. Alterations in general climate regimes influence the integrity of ecosystems in numerous ways, such as variation in the relative abundance of species, range shifts, changes in activity timing, and microhabitat use (Bates et al. 2014 ). The geographic distribution of any species often depends upon its ability to tolerate environmental stresses, biological interactions, and dispersal constraints. Hence, instead of the CC, the local species must only accept, adapt, move, or face extinction (Berg et al. 2010 ). So, the best performer species have a better survival capacity for adjusting to new ecosystems or a decreased perseverance to survive where they are already situated (Bates et al. 2014 ). An important aspect here is the inadequate habitat connectivity and access to microclimates, also crucial in raising the exposure to climate warming and extreme heatwave episodes. For example, the carbon sequestration rates are undergoing fluctuations due to climate-driven expansion in the range of global mangroves (Cavanaugh et al. 2014 ).

Similarly, the loss of kelp-forest ecosystems in various regions and its occupancy by the seaweed turfs has set the track for elevated herbivory by the high influx of tropical fish populations. Not only this, the increased water temperatures have exacerbated the conditions far away from the physiological tolerance level of the kelp communities (Vergés et al. 2016 ; Wernberg et al. 2016 ). Another pertinent danger is the devastation of keystone species, which even has more pervasive effects on the entire communities in that habitat (Zarnetske et al. 2012 ). It is particularly important as CC does not specify specific populations or communities. Eventually, this CC-induced redistribution of species may deteriorate carbon storage and the net ecosystem productivity (Weed et al. 2013 ). Among the typical disruptions, the prominent ones include impacts on marine and terrestrial productivity, marine community assembly, and the extended invasion of toxic cyanobacteria bloom (Fossheim et al. 2015 ).

The CC-impacted species extinction is widely reported in the literature (Beesley et al. 2019 ; Urban 2015 ), and the predictions of demise until the twenty-first century are dreadful (Abbass et al. 2019 ; Pereira et al. 2013 ). In a few cases, northward shifting of species may not be formidable as it allows mountain-dwelling species to find optimum climates. However, the migrant species may be trapped in isolated and incompatible habitats due to losing topography and range (Dullinger et al. 2012 ). For example, a study indicated that the American pika has been extirpated or intensely diminished in some regions, primarily attributed to the CC-impacted extinction or at least local extirpation (Stewart et al. 2015 ). Besides, the anticipation of persistent responses to the impacts of CC often requires data records of several decades to rigorously analyze the critical pre and post CC patterns at species and ecosystem levels (Manes et al. 2021 ; Testa et al. 2018 ).

Nonetheless, the availability of such long-term data records is rare; hence, attempts are needed to focus on these profound aspects. Biodiversity is also vulnerable to the other associated impacts of CC, such as rising temperatures, droughts, and certain invasive pest species. For instance, a study revealed the changes in the composition of plankton communities attributed to rising temperatures. Henceforth, alterations in such aquatic producer communities, i.e., diatoms and calcareous plants, can ultimately lead to variation in the recycling of biological carbon. Moreover, such changes are characterized as a potential contributor to CO 2 differences between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods (Kohfeld et al. 2005 ).

Climate change implications on human health

It is an understood corporality that human health is a significant victim of CC (Costello et al. 2009 ). According to the WHO, CC might be responsible for 250,000 additional deaths per year during 2030–2050 (Watts et al. 2015 ). These deaths are attributed to extreme weather-induced mortality and morbidity and the global expansion of vector-borne diseases (Lemery et al. 2021; Yang and Usman 2021 ; Meierrieks 2021 ; UNEP 2017 ). Here, some of the emerging health issues pertinent to this global problem are briefly described.

Climate change and antimicrobial resistance with corresponding economic costs

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an up-surging complex global health challenge (Garner et al. 2019 ; Lemery et al. 2021 ). Health professionals across the globe are extremely worried due to this phenomenon that has critical potential to reverse almost all the progress that has been achieved so far in the health discipline (Gosling and Arnell 2016 ). A massive amount of antibiotics is produced by many pharmaceutical industries worldwide, and the pathogenic microorganisms are gradually developing resistance to them, which can be comprehended how strongly this aspect can shake the foundations of national and global economies (UNEP 2017 ). This statement is supported by the fact that AMR is not developing in a particular region or country. Instead, it is flourishing in every continent of the world (WHO 2018 ). This plague is heavily pushing humanity to the post-antibiotic era, in which currently antibiotic-susceptible pathogens will once again lead to certain endemics and pandemics after being resistant(WHO 2018 ). Undesirably, if this statement would become a factuality, there might emerge certain risks in undertaking sophisticated interventions such as chemotherapy, joint replacement cases, and organ transplantation (Su et al. 2018 ). Presently, the amplification of drug resistance cases has made common illnesses like pneumonia, post-surgical infections, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, etc., too difficult and costly to be treated or cure well (WHO 2018 ). From a simple example, it can be assumed how easily antibiotic-resistant strains can be transmitted from one person to another and ultimately travel across the boundaries (Berendonk et al. 2015 ). Talking about the second- and third-generation classes of antibiotics, e.g., most renowned generations of cephalosporin antibiotics that are more expensive, broad-spectrum, more toxic, and usually require more extended periods whenever prescribed to patients (Lemery et al. 2021 ; Pärnänen et al. 2019 ). This scenario has also revealed that the abundance of resistant strains of pathogens was also higher in the Southern part (WHO 2018 ). As southern parts are generally warmer than their counterparts, it is evident from this example how CC-induced global warming can augment the spread of antibiotic-resistant strains within the biosphere, eventually putting additional economic burden in the face of developing new and costlier antibiotics. The ARG exchange to susceptible bacteria through one of the potential mechanisms, transformation, transduction, and conjugation; Selection pressure can be caused by certain antibiotics, metals or pesticides, etc., as shown in Fig. 5 .

Source: Elsayed et al. ( 2021 ); Karkman et al. ( 2018 )

A typical interaction between the susceptible and resistant strains.

Certain studies highlighted that conventional urban wastewater treatment plants are typical hotspots where most bacterial strains exchange genetic material through horizontal gene transfer (Fig. 5 ). Although at present, the extent of risks associated with the antibiotic resistance found in wastewater is complicated; environmental scientists and engineers have particular concerns about the potential impacts of these antibiotic resistance genes on human health (Ashbolt 2015 ). At most undesirable and worst case, these antibiotic-resistant genes containing bacteria can make their way to enter into the environment (Pruden et al. 2013 ), irrigation water used for crops and public water supplies and ultimately become a part of food chains and food webs (Ma et al. 2019 ; D. Wu et al. 2019 ). This problem has been reported manifold in several countries (Hendriksen et al. 2019 ), where wastewater as a means of irrigated water is quite common.

Climate change and vector borne-diseases

Temperature is a fundamental factor for the sustenance of living entities regardless of an ecosystem. So, a specific living being, especially a pathogen, requires a sophisticated temperature range to exist on earth. The second essential component of CC is precipitation, which also impacts numerous infectious agents’ transport and dissemination patterns. Global rising temperature is a significant cause of many species extinction. On the one hand, this changing environmental temperature may be causing species extinction, and on the other, this warming temperature might favor the thriving of some new organisms. Here, it was evident that some pathogens may also upraise once non-evident or reported (Patz et al. 2000 ). This concept can be exemplified through certain pathogenic strains of microorganisms that how the likelihood of various diseases increases in response to climate warming-induced environmental changes (Table 2 ).

A recent example is an outburst of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Republic of China, causing pneumonia and severe acute respiratory complications (Cui et al. 2021 ; Song et al. 2021 ). The large family of viruses is harbored in numerous animals, bats, and snakes in particular (livescience.com) with the subsequent transfer into human beings. Hence, it is worth noting that the thriving of numerous vectors involved in spreading various diseases is influenced by Climate change (Ogden 2018 ; Santos et al. 2021 ).

Psychological impacts of climate change

Climate change (CC) is responsible for the rapid dissemination and exaggeration of certain epidemics and pandemics. In addition to the vast apparent impacts of climate change on health, forestry, agriculture, etc., it may also have psychological implications on vulnerable societies. It can be exemplified through the recent outburst of (COVID-19) in various countries around the world (Pal 2021 ). Besides, the victims of this viral infection have made healthy beings scarier and terrified. In the wake of such epidemics, people with common colds or fever are also frightened and must pass specific regulatory protocols. Living in such situations continuously terrifies the public and makes the stress familiar, which eventually makes them psychologically weak (npr.org).

CC boosts the extent of anxiety, distress, and other issues in public, pushing them to develop various mental-related problems. Besides, frequent exposure to extreme climatic catastrophes such as geological disasters also imprints post-traumatic disorder, and their ubiquitous occurrence paves the way to developing chronic psychological dysfunction. Moreover, repetitive listening from media also causes an increase in the person’s stress level (Association 2020 ). Similarly, communities living in flood-prone areas constantly live in extreme fear of drowning and die by floods. In addition to human lives, the flood-induced destruction of physical infrastructure is a specific reason for putting pressure on these communities (Ogden 2018 ). For instance, Ogden ( 2018 ) comprehensively denoted that Katrina’s Hurricane augmented the mental health issues in the victim communities.

Climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Forests are the global regulators of the world’s climate (FAO 2018 ) and have an indispensable role in regulating global carbon and nitrogen cycles (Rehman et al. 2021 ; Reichstein and Carvalhais 2019 ). Hence, disturbances in forest ecology affect the micro and macro-climates (Ellison et al. 2017 ). Climate warming, in return, has profound impacts on the growth and productivity of transboundary forests by influencing the temperature and precipitation patterns, etc. As CC induces specific changes in the typical structure and functions of ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2017 ) as well impacts forest health, climate change also has several devastating consequences such as forest fires, droughts, pest outbreaks (EPA 2018 ), and last but not the least is the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. The rising frequency and intensity of another CC product, i.e., droughts, pose plenty of challenges to the well-being of global forests (Diffenbaugh et al. 2017 ), which is further projected to increase soon (Hartmann et al. 2018 ; Lehner et al. 2017 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ). Hence, CC induces storms, with more significant impacts also put extra pressure on the survival of the global forests (Martínez-Alvarado et al. 2018 ), significantly since their influences are augmented during higher winter precipitations with corresponding wetter soils causing weak root anchorage of trees (Brázdil et al. 2018 ). Surging temperature regimes causes alterations in usual precipitation patterns, which is a significant hurdle for the survival of temperate forests (Allen et al. 2010 ; Flannigan et al. 2013 ), letting them encounter severe stress and disturbances which adversely affects the local tree species (Hubbart et al. 2016 ; Millar and Stephenson 2015 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ).

Climate change impacts on forest-dependent communities

Forests are the fundamental livelihood resource for about 1.6 billion people worldwide; out of them, 350 million are distinguished with relatively higher reliance (Bank 2008 ). Agro-forestry-dependent communities comprise 1.2 billion, and 60 million indigenous people solely rely on forests and their products to sustain their lives (Sunderlin et al. 2005 ). For example, in the entire African continent, more than 2/3rd of inhabitants depend on forest resources and woodlands for their alimonies, e.g., food, fuelwood and grazing (Wasiq and Ahmad 2004 ). The livings of these people are more intensely affected by the climatic disruptions making their lives harder (Brown et al. 2014 ). On the one hand, forest communities are incredibly vulnerable to CC due to their livelihoods, cultural and spiritual ties as well as socio-ecological connections, and on the other, they are not familiar with the term “climate change.” (Rahman and Alam 2016 ). Among the destructive impacts of temperature and rainfall, disruption of the agroforestry crops with resultant downscale growth and yield (Macchi et al. 2008 ). Cruz ( 2015 ) ascribed that forest-dependent smallholder farmers in the Philippines face the enigma of delayed fruiting, more severe damages by insect and pest incidences due to unfavorable temperature regimes, and changed rainfall patterns.

Among these series of challenges to forest communities, their well-being is also distinctly vulnerable to CC. Though the detailed climate change impacts on human health have been comprehensively mentioned in the previous section, some studies have listed a few more devastating effects on the prosperity of forest-dependent communities. For instance, the Himalayan people have been experiencing frequent skin-borne diseases such as malaria and other skin diseases due to increasing mosquitoes, wild boar as well, and new wasps species, particularly in higher altitudes that were almost non-existent before last 5–10 years (Xu et al. 2008 ). Similarly, people living at high altitudes in Bangladesh have experienced frequent mosquito-borne calamities (Fardous; Sharma 2012 ). In addition, the pace of other waterborne diseases such as infectious diarrhea, cholera, pathogenic induced abdominal complications and dengue has also been boosted in other distinguished regions of Bangladesh (Cell 2009 ; Gunter et al. 2008 ).

Pest outbreak

Upscaling hotter climate may positively affect the mobile organisms with shorter generation times because they can scurry from harsh conditions than the immobile species (Fettig et al. 2013 ; Schoene and Bernier 2012 ) and are also relatively more capable of adapting to new environments (Jactel et al. 2019 ). It reveals that insects adapt quickly to global warming due to their mobility advantages. Due to past outbreaks, the trees (forests) are relatively more susceptible victims (Kurz et al. 2008 ). Before CC, the influence of factors mentioned earlier, i.e., droughts and storms, was existent and made the forests susceptible to insect pest interventions; however, the global forests remain steadfast, assiduous, and green (Jactel et al. 2019 ). The typical reasons could be the insect herbivores were regulated by several tree defenses and pressures of predation (Wilkinson and Sherratt 2016 ). As climate greatly influences these phenomena, the global forests cannot be so sedulous against such challenges (Jactel et al. 2019 ). Table 3 demonstrates some of the particular considerations with practical examples that are essential while mitigating the impacts of CC in the forestry sector.

Climate change impacts on tourism

Tourism is a commercial activity that has roots in multi-dimensions and an efficient tool with adequate job generation potential, revenue creation, earning of spectacular foreign exchange, enhancement in cross-cultural promulgation and cooperation, a business tool for entrepreneurs and eventually for the country’s national development (Arshad et al. 2018 ; Scott 2021 ). Among a plethora of other disciplines, the tourism industry is also a distinct victim of climate warming (Gössling et al. 2012 ; Hall et al. 2015 ) as the climate is among the essential resources that enable tourism in particular regions as most preferred locations. Different places at different times of the year attract tourists both within and across the countries depending upon the feasibility and compatibility of particular weather patterns. Hence, the massive variations in these weather patterns resulting from CC will eventually lead to monumental challenges to the local economy in that specific area’s particular and national economy (Bujosa et al. 2015 ). For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report demonstrated that the global tourism industry had faced a considerable decline in the duration of ski season, including the loss of some ski areas and the dramatic shifts in tourist destinations’ climate warming.

Furthermore, different studies (Neuvonen et al. 2015 ; Scott et al. 2004 ) indicated that various currently perfect tourist spots, e.g., coastal areas, splendid islands, and ski resorts, will suffer consequences of CC. It is also worth noting that the quality and potential of administrative management potential to cope with the influence of CC on the tourism industry is of crucial significance, which renders specific strengths of resiliency to numerous destinations to withstand against it (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). Similarly, in the partial or complete absence of adequate socio-economic and socio-political capital, the high-demanding tourist sites scurry towards the verge of vulnerability. The susceptibility of tourism is based on different components such as the extent of exposure, sensitivity, life-supporting sectors, and capacity assessment factors (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). It is obvious corporality that sectors such as health, food, ecosystems, human habitat, infrastructure, water availability, and the accessibility of a particular region are prone to CC. Henceforth, the sensitivity of these critical sectors to CC and, in return, the adaptive measures are a hallmark in determining the composite vulnerability of climate warming (Ionescu et al. 2009 ).

Moreover, the dependence on imported food items, poor hygienic conditions, and inadequate health professionals are dominant aspects affecting the local terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. Meanwhile, the greater dependency on ecosystem services and its products also makes a destination more fragile to become a prey of CC (Rizvi et al. 2015 ). Some significant non-climatic factors are important indicators of a particular ecosystem’s typical health and functioning, e.g., resource richness and abundance portray the picture of ecosystem stability. Similarly, the species abundance is also a productive tool that ensures that the ecosystem has a higher buffering capacity, which is terrific in terms of resiliency (Roscher et al. 2013 ).

Climate change impacts on the economic sector

Climate plays a significant role in overall productivity and economic growth. Due to its increasingly global existence and its effect on economic growth, CC has become one of the major concerns of both local and international environmental policymakers (Ferreira et al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Abbass et al. 2021b ; Lamperti et al. 2021 ). The adverse effects of CC on the overall productivity factor of the agricultural sector are therefore significant for understanding the creation of local adaptation policies and the composition of productive climate policy contracts. Previous studies on CC in the world have already forecasted its effects on the agricultural sector. Researchers have found that global CC will impact the agricultural sector in different world regions. The study of the impacts of CC on various agrarian activities in other demographic areas and the development of relative strategies to respond to effects has become a focal point for researchers (Chandioet al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Mosavi et al. 2020 ).

With the rapid growth of global warming since the 1980s, the temperature has started increasing globally, which resulted in the incredible transformation of rain and evaporation in the countries. The agricultural development of many countries has been reliant, delicate, and susceptible to CC for a long time, and it is on the development of agriculture total factor productivity (ATFP) influence different crops and yields of farmers (Alhassan 2021 ; Wu 2020 ).

Food security and natural disasters are increasing rapidly in the world. Several major climatic/natural disasters have impacted local crop production in the countries concerned. The effects of these natural disasters have been poorly controlled by the development of the economies and populations and may affect human life as well. One example is China, which is among the world’s most affected countries, vulnerable to natural disasters due to its large population, harsh environmental conditions, rapid CC, low environmental stability, and disaster power. According to the January 2016 statistical survey, China experienced an economic loss of 298.3 billion Yuan, and about 137 million Chinese people were severely affected by various natural disasters (Xie et al. 2018 ).

Mitigation and adaptation strategies of climate changes

Adaptation and mitigation are the crucial factors to address the response to CC (Jahanzad et al. 2020 ). Researchers define mitigation on climate changes, and on the other hand, adaptation directly impacts climate changes like floods. To some extent, mitigation reduces or moderates greenhouse gas emission, and it becomes a critical issue both economically and environmentally (Botzen et al. 2021 ; Jahanzad et al. 2020 ; Kongsager 2018 ; Smit et al. 2000 ; Vale et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2021 ; Verheyen 2005 ).

Researchers have deep concern about the adaptation and mitigation methodologies in sectoral and geographical contexts. Agriculture, industry, forestry, transport, and land use are the main sectors to adapt and mitigate policies(Kärkkäinen et al. 2020 ; Waheed et al. 2021 ). Adaptation and mitigation require particular concern both at the national and international levels. The world has faced a significant problem of climate change in the last decades, and adaptation to these effects is compulsory for economic and social development. To adapt and mitigate against CC, one should develop policies and strategies at the international level (Hussain et al. 2020 ). Figure 6 depicts the list of current studies on sectoral impacts of CC with adaptation and mitigation measures globally.

Sectoral impacts of climate change with adaptation and mitigation measures.

Conclusion and future perspectives

Specific socio-agricultural, socio-economic, and physical systems are the cornerstone of psychological well-being, and the alteration in these systems by CC will have disastrous impacts. Climate variability, alongside other anthropogenic and natural stressors, influences human and environmental health sustainability. Food security is another concerning scenario that may lead to compromised food quality, higher food prices, and inadequate food distribution systems. Global forests are challenged by different climatic factors such as storms, droughts, flash floods, and intense precipitation. On the other hand, their anthropogenic wiping is aggrandizing their existence. Undoubtedly, the vulnerability scale of the world’s regions differs; however, appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures can aid the decision-making bodies in developing effective policies to tackle its impacts. Presently, modern life on earth has tailored to consistent climatic patterns, and accordingly, adapting to such considerable variations is of paramount importance. Because the faster changes in climate will make it harder to survive and adjust, this globally-raising enigma calls for immediate attention at every scale ranging from elementary community level to international level. Still, much effort, research, and dedication are required, which is the most critical time. Some policy implications can help us to mitigate the consequences of climate change, especially the most affected sectors like the agriculture sector;

Seasonal variations and cultivation practices

Warming might lengthen the season in frost-prone growing regions (temperate and arctic zones), allowing for longer-maturing seasonal cultivars with better yields (Pfadenhauer 2020 ; Bonacci 2019 ). Extending the planting season may allow additional crops each year; when warming leads to frequent warmer months highs over critical thresholds, a split season with a brief summer fallow may be conceivable for short-period crops such as wheat barley, cereals, and many other vegetable crops. The capacity to prolong the planting season in tropical and subtropical places where the harvest season is constrained by precipitation or agriculture farming occurs after the year may be more limited and dependent on how precipitation patterns vary (Wu et al. 2017 ).

New varieties of crops

The genetic component is comprehensive for many yields, but it is restricted like kiwi fruit for a few. Ali et al. ( 2017 ) investigated how new crops will react to climatic changes (also stated in Mall et al. 2017 ). Hot temperature, drought, insect resistance; salt tolerance; and overall crop production and product quality increases would all be advantageous (Akkari 2016 ). Genetic mapping and engineering can introduce a greater spectrum of features. The adoption of genetically altered cultivars has been slowed, particularly in the early forecasts owing to the complexity in ensuring features are expediently expressed throughout the entire plant, customer concerns, economic profitability, and regulatory impediments (Wirehn 2018 ; Davidson et al. 2016 ).

Changes in management and other input factors

To get the full benefit of the CO 2 would certainly require additional nitrogen and other fertilizers. Nitrogen not consumed by the plants may be excreted into groundwater, discharged into water surface, or emitted from the land, soil nitrous oxide when large doses of fertilizer are sprayed. Increased nitrogen levels in groundwater sources have been related to human chronic illnesses and impact marine ecosystems. Cultivation, grain drying, and other field activities have all been examined in depth in the studies (Barua et al. 2018 ).

The technological and socio-economic adaptation

The policy consequence of the causative conclusion is that as a source of alternative energy, biofuel production is one of the routes that explain oil price volatility separate from international macroeconomic factors. Even though biofuel production has just begun in a few sample nations, there is still a tremendous worldwide need for feedstock to satisfy industrial expansion in China and the USA, which explains the food price relationship to the global oil price. Essentially, oil-exporting countries may create incentives in their economies to increase food production. It may accomplish by giving farmers financing, seedlings, fertilizers, and farming equipment. Because of the declining global oil price and, as a result, their earnings from oil export, oil-producing nations may be unable to subsidize food imports even in the near term. As a result, these countries can boost the agricultural value chain for export. It may be accomplished through R&D and adding value to their food products to increase income by correcting exchange rate misalignment and adverse trade terms. These nations may also diversify their economies away from oil, as dependence on oil exports alone is no longer economically viable given the extreme volatility of global oil prices. Finally, resource-rich and oil-exporting countries can convert to non-food renewable energy sources such as solar, hydro, coal, wind, wave, and tidal energy. By doing so, both world food and oil supplies would be maintained rather than harmed.

IRENA’s modeling work shows that, if a comprehensive policy framework is in place, efforts toward decarbonizing the energy future will benefit economic activity, jobs (outweighing losses in the fossil fuel industry), and welfare. Countries with weak domestic supply chains and a large reliance on fossil fuel income, in particular, must undertake structural reforms to capitalize on the opportunities inherent in the energy transition. Governments continue to give major policy assistance to extract fossil fuels, including tax incentives, financing, direct infrastructure expenditures, exemptions from environmental regulations, and other measures. The majority of major oil and gas producing countries intend to increase output. Some countries intend to cut coal output, while others plan to maintain or expand it. While some nations are beginning to explore and execute policies aimed at a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel production, these efforts have yet to impact major producing countries’ plans and goals. Verifiable and comparable data on fossil fuel output and assistance from governments and industries are critical to closing the production gap. Governments could increase openness by declaring their production intentions in their climate obligations under the Paris Agreement.

It is firmly believed that achieving the Paris Agreement commitments is doubtlful without undergoing renewable energy transition across the globe (Murshed 2020 ; Zhao et al. 2022 ). Policy instruments play the most important role in determining the degree of investment in renewable energy technology. This study examines the efficacy of various policy strategies in the renewable energy industry of multiple nations. Although its impact is more visible in established renewable energy markets, a renewable portfolio standard is also a useful policy instrument. The cost of producing renewable energy is still greater than other traditional energy sources. Furthermore, government incentives in the R&D sector can foster innovation in this field, resulting in cost reductions in the renewable energy industry. These nations may export their technologies and share their policy experiences by forming networks among their renewable energy-focused organizations. All policy measures aim to reduce production costs while increasing the proportion of renewables to a country’s energy system. Meanwhile, long-term contracts with renewable energy providers, government commitment and control, and the establishment of long-term goals can assist developing nations in deploying renewable energy technology in their energy sector.

Availability of data and material

Data sources and relevant links are provided in the paper to access data.

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Kashif Abbass, Huaming Song & Ijaz Younis

Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Chemical Pollution Control and Resources Reuse, School of Environmental and Biological Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Xiaolingwei 200, Nanjing, 210094, People’s Republic of China

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Muntasir Murshed

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Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, 173, Alkharj, 11942, Saudi Arabia

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KA: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Study design, Formal analysis, Visualization, Revised draft, Writing-review, and editing. MZQ: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Writing-review, and editing. HS: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, Conceptualization, Validation, Supervision, literature review, Revised drapt, and writing review and editing. MM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. HM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. IY: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, literature review, and writing review and editing.

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Abbass, K., Qasim, M.Z., Song, H. et al. A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29 , 42539–42559 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19718-6

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Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013)

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Background: Anthropogenic global warming, interacting with social and other environmental determinants, constitutes a profound health risk. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review for 1989–2013 (inclusive), the first 25 years in which this topic appeared in scientific journals. It explores the extent to which articles have identified potentially catastrophic, civilization-endangering health risks associated with climate change. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar were primarily used to identify articles which were then ranked on a three-point scale. Each score reflected the extent to which papers discussed global systemic risk. Citations were also analyzed. Results : Of 2143 analyzed papers 1546 (72%) were scored as one. Their citations (165,133) were 82% of the total. The proportion of annual papers scored as three was initially high, as were their citations but declined to almost zero by 1996, before rising slightly from 2006. Conclusions : The enormous expansion of the literature appropriately reflects increased understanding of the importance of climate change to global health. However, recognition of the most severe, existential, health risks from climate change was generally low. Most papers instead focused on infectious diseases, direct heat effects and other disciplinary-bounded phenomena and consequences, even though scientific advances have long called for more inter-disciplinary collaboration.

1. Introduction

In 1988 the leading climate scientist James Hansen, of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, with three other senior researchers, testified to a U.S. Congressional committee that it was 99 percent certain that the warming trend in Earth’s temperature that was then observed was not natural variation but was caused by the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases. This testimony was reported prominently in the New York Times [ 1 , 2 ]. Hansen was criticized then, and many times since, for his “adventurous” interpretation of climate data, however the publicity which followed his testimony, itself reflecting a decade of growing agitation about the geo-political impacts of climate change [ 2 ] may have influenced health workers to think more deeply about the issues. In any case, within a year, a Lancet editorial discussed health and the “greenhouse effect” [ 3 ], possibly the first such publication in a health journal, eight years after a chapter concerning climate change and parasitic disease appeared [ 4 ]. At least six other chapters on this topic were published in the 1980s, as well as at least two reports. For details, see [ 5 ]. Two other journal articles concerning climate change and health were also published in 1989 [ 6 , 7 ].

The 1989 editorial stated “global warming, increased ultraviolet flux, and higher levels of tropospheric ozone will reduce crop production, with potentially devastating effects on world food supplies. Malnutrition (sic) might then become commonplace, even among developed nations, and armed conflicts would be more likely as countries compete for a dwindling supply of natural resources” [ 3 ]. In the New England Journal of Medicine, Leaf warned, also in 1989, of sea level rise, especially in the south-eastern U.S. state of Florida, higher precipitation, millions of environmental refugees, an increased risk of drought and the possibility that warming at higher latitudes would not fully compensate any climate change related loss of agricultural productivity towards the equator [ 6 ]. The third paper published that year [ 7 ] was even more direct, warning of “catastrophic” consequences to human health and well-being.

In the early 1990s, warnings of potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change continued to dominate. Yet, by the turn of the millennium, the author had formed the impression that the scientific publishing milieu was becoming less receptive to the message that climate change and other forms of “planetary overload” [ 8 ] pose existential, civilization-wide risks. This was disturbing, as my own confirmation bias seemed to support the case that the evidence of existential risk was continuing to rise [ 9 , 10 ].

That the health risks from climate change are indeed extraordinarily high was stressed in the 2009 publication of the lengthy (41 page) article by the Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission, which described climate change as the “biggest global health threat of the 21st century” [ 11 ]. Yet, although this paper attracted considerable attention at the time, the long-term outlook for climate change and health has since continued to deteriorate.

By existential, I mean related to the word “existence”. But it is not the continued existence of Earth that is in doubt, but instead the existence of a high level of function of civilization, one in which prospects of “health for many” (though no longer “health for all”) are realistic and even improving [ 12 ]. Existential risk does not necessarily mean that global civilization will collapse. Nor does it exclude pockets of order and even prosperity enduring for generations, from which global or quasi-global civilization may one day emerge, provided worst case scenarios are avoided, such as runaway climate change and nuclear war leading to nuclear winter [ 13 ]. Compared to today, such prospects should be recognized as catastrophic. Unchecked climate change could generate similar, or bleaker, global futures. Seeking to minimize such possibilities should be seen as a major responsibility for all workers concerned with sustaining and improving global public health.

There is reticence [ 14 , 15 ], shared by many authors, reviewers, journals, funders and media outlets to discuss the possibility of such existential risks. Nonetheless, the consequences for health are so vast that discussion is warranted. This paper seeks to do that, in the process conducting the largest review on the topic of climate change and health yet to be published.

1.1. Climate Change Science, Risk and the 2015 Paris Agreement

The scientific knowledge that gases, accumulating mainly from the burning of fossil fuels and the clearing of forests, add to the natural “greenhouse effect” has been known since the 19th century [ 16 ]. In 1957 scientists observed “human beings are now carrying out a largescale geophysical experiment of a kind which could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few hundred years we are returning to the air and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored over hundreds of millions of years” [ 17 ].

In 2015 the Paris climate change agreement, negotiated by representatives of 196 parties (195 nations and the European Union) committed countries (thus, effectively, civilization), upon ratification, to actions that would seek to restrict average global warming to “well below” 2 °C above “pre-industrial” levels and to “pursue efforts” to limit the rise to 1.5 °C. The text of the Paris Agreement defines neither the pre-industrial temperature nor the time for this baseline, but most experts agree that it means the temperature in the late 18th or 19th century, soon after the start of the industrial revolution, when coal burning increased. This time is after the end of the Little Ice Age, which itself was accompanied by a rebound in average temperatures, independent of the slow rise in greenhouse gases (chiefly methane and nitrous oxide as well as carbon dioxide) that occurred throughout the 19th century. Estimates of global warming for the period 1861–1880 until 2015 range from 0.93 °C [ 18 ] to 1.12 °C [ 19 ].

Although the goal of 1.5 °C is widely known, there is less understanding that meeting this challenge would not guarantee safety from a climate change perspective [ 20 ]. Indeed, if it were to be more widely accepted that climate change has already contributed to the Syrian war [ 21 , 22 ], to the rise in global food prices which accompanied the 2010 drought and heatwave in Russia [ 23 , 24 ], and the 2018 wildfire season in the Northern Hemisphere, then the threshold of danger might already be widely seen as having long been exceeded.

In recent years the science concerning the physical impacts of climate has continued to expand and to disturb. Average global temperatures continue to rise [ 25 ], apparently in a process more “stepped” than as a trend [ 26 ] with record average global heat in both El Niño and La Niña years. Loss of ice from both Antarctica and Greenland is increasing and the rate of sea level rise is consequently accelerating [ 27 ]. Property values in parts of the U.S. East Coast may soon fall, due to sea level rise [ 28 ]. There is growing concern about more intense rainfall [ 29 , 30 ], fires worsened by heat and drought [ 31 ], a weakening Gulf Stream [ 32 ] and increased sinuosity of the jet stream, which can cause unusual cold at lower latitudes, even if the average global temperature is rising [ 33 , 34 ]. The projected trend toward a weaker and poleward-shifted jet stream is also consistent with projections of a significantly increased risk of worsening extreme heat and dryness in the Northern Hemisphere [ 35 ].

There is also growing evidence of greenhouse effect-intensifying feedbacks in the Earth system [ 36 ] that might release enormous quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, independent of fossil fuel combustion, agriculture or deforestation, from sources including warming tundra and increased fires, both of peat and forests [ 37 , 38 ]. Such releases could dwarf the climate saving made possible by the putative implementation of the Paris climate agreement. The strength of the oceanic carbon sink is also weakening [ 39 ]. If this intensifies it is likely to accelerate warming of the atmosphere, ocean and land.

1.2. Interaction, Attribution, and Causation

All, or virtually all, environmental health effects interact with social and technological factors as well as other “purely” environmental determinants. For example, the effects of heat upon individual health are influenced by temperature, humidity, exercise, hydration, age, pre-existing health status, and also by occupation, clothing, behavior, autonomy, vulnerability, and sense of obligation. Does the person affected by heat, perhaps a brick maker in India, have the capacity to regulate her heat exposure; or might they be an elite athlete or emergency worker voluntarily pushing their limits? Other factors influencing the heath impact of heat include housing quality, the presence of absence of affordable air conditioning and energy subsidies, if any. In turn, these factors are influenced by governance and socio-economic status. Thus, the health-harming effects of heat can be seen to have many contributing causes, of which climate change is only one. As McMichael (and before him David Hume, among others) pointed out, causal attribution is to an extent philosophical; it is influenced by the “focal depth” of the examiner’s “causal lens” [ 40 ]. Consider a mass shooting in a school: Some will see underlying social and legal factors as contributing; others may see only the shooter. Yet, a major role and goal of public health is to seek to identify and reduce “deep” or “underlying” causes [ 41 ]. A world in which only the most “proximal” causes are identified will not function well.

Attributing the fraction of human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change to physical events such as storms, floods and heatwaves is similarly contested and assumption-dependent. The contribution of climate change to more indirect, strongly socially mediated effects such as migration, famine or conflict is even more difficult and contentious [ 22 , 42 , 43 ]. Perhaps in part because of these causal complications, issues such as famine, genocide, large-scale population dislocation and conflict have, with rare exceptions [ 44 ], been peripheral to public health. This is despite the obvious large-scale adverse health effects of these phenomena.

Rigorous methods have been developed to detect and attribute the health effects of phenomena that are more directly or obviously related to climate change, such as heat and infectious diseases [ 45 ]. However, excessive caution risks a type II error, the overlooking of genuine effects [ 46 , 47 ]. To reduce this risk, the authors of a recent study on attribution acknowledged the role for “well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being” [ 45 ]. This paper makes many such judgments.

1.3. Integrative Risk and the Sustainability of Civilization

Publications in health journals about nuclear war and health date at least to 1962 [ 48 ]. In 1992 the Union of Concerned Scientists coordinated the “World Scientist’s warning to humanity”, signed by over 1700 leading scientists (but no public health workers) [ 49 ]. This warning was repeated in 2017, with far more signatories (including many health workers) [ 50 ].

Many authors outside health have warned of the fragility of modern civilization [ 51 , 52 ]. However, comparatively few writers with a health background have contributed [ 9 , 10 , 53 , 54 ]. Tony McMichael, who led the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chapter on health [ 55 ] frequently wrote and spoke of eroding “life support mechanisms” [ 56 , 57 ], a term probably introduced into the health literature in 1972 by Sargent [ 58 ]. Certainly, McMichael wanted to convey, when using this term, a profound risk to human well-being and health.

If civilization is to collapse then effects such as conflict, population displacement and famine are likely to be involved. A heatwave, on its own, is unlikely to cause the collapse of civilization, nor even ruin an economy for a decade. It needs social co-factors to do this. For example, a series of heatwaves damaging crop yields and contributing to internal migration has been postulated as contributing to the Syrian civil war that started in 2011 [ 21 , 22 , 59 , 60 , 61 , 62 ]. Prolonged heat, especially if in a humid setting, could cause some regions to be completely abandoned [ 63 , 64 , 65 ].

A severely damaged health system, allied with worsening undernutrition and poverty, could provide a milieu for a devastating epidemic, including a resurgence of HIV/AIDS [ 66 ]. An increase in infectious diseases, if of sufficient scale, could contribute to integrative cascades of failure generating regional or even global civilization collapse. Infectious diseases, as well as unfavorable eco-climatic change, contributed to the collapse of the Roman Empire [ 67 ].

While such consequences may seem far-fetched to some, the prospect of sea level rise of one meter or more by 2100 (perhaps sooner), proliferating nuclear weapons, millions of refugees, xenophobia and tribalism which limits integration, and growing cases of state failure is disquieting. Few, if any, formal scenarios, as exercises by senior scientists, are as bleak, but funding and other pressures constrain the realism of such exercises [ 15 ]. Already, the number of forcibly displaced people exceeds 68 million [ 68 ], a rise that has been linked with tightening limits to growth, including climate change [ 69 ].

It is stressed, again, that the idea that any single climate related event, such as heat, drought, sea level rise, conflict or migration will cause the collapse of civilization is simplistic. It is far more plausible to conceive that collapse (or quasi-collapse) could arise via a “milieu” of multi-factorial risk, enhancing, inflaming and interacting with climate change and other factors [ 43 , 70 ].

1.4. Hypothesis

This article seeks to test the hypothesis that the early literature relevant to climate change and health was more willing to describe catastrophic, potentially civilization disrupting health effects including famine, mass migration and conflict than it was to become, at least until 2014.

To explore this hypothesis, a database of articles relevant to climate change and health was assembled, relying mainly on PubMed and Google Scholar. This had six steps (see Appendix for details). Due to limited resources, the main search was restricted to the period 1980–2013, and the terms “climate change” and health or “global warming” and health. After eliminating duplicates, remaining papers were checked to see if they met eligibility criteria (see Box 1 ).

inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Included: Articles, editorials, commentaries, journalistic pieces with bylines.

Excluded: Reports, books, book sections including e-chapters, letters, factsheets, monographs, un-credited journalistic entries, non-English publications, papers concerning stratospheric ozone depletion, podcast transcripts, journalistic pieces that could not easily be recovered.

The search was not restricted to health or to multidisciplinary journals. However, papers outside health journals had to meet more exacting requirements to be included. They had to include health (or a synonym such as nutrition) in their title, abstract, keywords or text, even if they focused on an effect with health implications, such as population displacement, conflict or food insecurity.

The title of each identified paper was read, followed by the abstract of each paper, assessed as possibly eligible. If a score was still unclear, the full text was obtained and searched for words and phrases that suggested a broader interpretation of the indirect effects of climate change, such as “population displacement”, “migration”, “conflict”, “war”, “famine”, and “food insecurity”.

Eligible papers were scored as one if they exclusively concerned an effect other than conflict, migration, population displacement or large-scale undernutrition or famine. They also needed to exclude statements (even if introductory) such as “climate change has been recognized as the greatest risk to health in the 21st century”.

Papers were scored as two if they either mentioned such an effect and/or contained statements recognizing the potentially enormous scale of the health impacts from climate change. A synonym for this understanding was the phrase eroding “life support mechanisms”.

Papers were scored as three if they included a more detailed explanation or assertion of the future (or current) existence and importance of conflict, migration or famine, perhaps suggesting an interaction among them. A score of three was more likely if they also warned of the general severity of climate change. The score was also influenced by the tone of the language, and the space devoted to these issues (see Appendix for further details).

In addition, PubMed was searched for papers published from 2014–2017 matching the criteria “climate change” and “health”. A sample of 156 of these articles was randomly selected, approximately 5% in each year, after the elimination of a proportion of ineligible articles. Each was then scored, using the method described above for papers published from 1989 to 2013 (inclusive). Bootstrapping was then used to estimate the average score and 95% confidence interval of these articles, by taking ten thousand resamples, each of 156 papers, with replacement from this set (so that in each iteration some papers will appear more than once, while others will not appear at all).

A total of 2143 unique articles and journalistic essays satisfied the inclusion criteria, for the period 1989–2013 inclusive. The full database is available in the supplementary material . This shows the year, lead author (at least), journal, title and primary search method. It also lists the number of Google Scholar citations and the date these were identified. Table A1 ( Appendix ) tabulates the primary search method of papers, by each year.

No paper published before 1989 was eligible for retention in the final database. One potential publication [ 71 ] was cited by Kalkstein and Smoyer [ 5 ] as published in 1988, but it could not be located. About half the total papers (1142 or 53%) were published since 2009 (see Figure 1 ). Most papers (1546 papers, 72%) were scored as one, while only 189 (3.3%) were scored as three. The difference in these scores is statistically significant ( p < 0.01 ANOVA). The average score of these 2143 papers was 1.37 (see Table A2 in Appendix ).

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Number of papers in each category. Since 1989 the number of papers concerning climate change and health has expanded considerably, particularly since 2008. As this article did not review the entire literature, the actual number of papers published, even in English, is more than shown. The average score of these papers declined from 1.9 in the first quintile to 1.34 in the final five years.

The increase in the size of literature reflects growing awareness of the risks to health from climate change. Over 50% of the papers published in the first quintile (1989–1993) were scored as two or three, although the total number in that time (27) was small (see Figure 1 ). Since 1993 the majority of papers have focused on effects such as heat, infectious diseases, allergies or asthma. The number of papers scored as two or three increased slightly after its trough (23%) in the third quintile (1999–2004) but was only 26% for 2009–2013 inclusive.

Papers scored as three were particularly uncommon in the third quintile (1999–2003), representing only 2.6% of the total published papers in that period. Even in the first quintile (1989–1993) most citations were for papers scored as one (see Figure 2 ).

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Number of citations per annum for each score of paper. Most citations were for papers scored as one. Note that in 2005–2007 three extensively cited papers were scored as two (these are discussed in the Appendix A ).

3.1. Citations

Citation data were available for 2105 papers (98%). Over 201,000 citations were identified by Google Scholar (see Table A3 in Appendix ). Thirty two percent of these citations were for papers published since 2009 (see Figure 2 ). Of these citations, the great majority (82%) were for papers scored as one, each of which was cited an average of 107 times. Papers scored 2 were cited an average of 73 times, representing 15% of the total. Papers scored as three were cited 35 times each on average and accounted for 3% of the total. The difference in these citation scores is also statistically significant ( p < 0.01 ANOVA). Citations for papers scored as three from 1995 to 2008 inclusive were even lower, accounting for less than 1% of the total citations in each year of this period (see Figure 3 ). The fraction of the literature discussing existential risk remained lower in the last 5 years of this database than in the first five years (see Figure 1 ). The shift in the ratio of annual citations from the early period to the more recent years is evident in Figure 3 . Until 1991, the majority of citations were for papers scored as three. From 1994 the fraction of citations for papers scored as three was almost zero (3% or less) in every year until 2009. In 2013 it again fell to 3%.

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The proportion of citations each year for papers scored as one and three. Since 1991 most citations have been for papers scored as 1. The Lancet UCL paper published in 2009 [ 11 ] led to a resurgence of citations for papers scored as 3, but this effect declined. Three individual papers, each scored as two (published in 2005, 2006 and 2007), were disproportionately cited. In each year at least some papers scored two or three, but their proportion of citations fell steeply after the first quintile. In 2003 no paper was scored as three, and for almost a decade (1997–2005 inclusive) virtually no papers scored as three were cited.

3.2. Coverage of Topics

All papers published in 1989 discussed multiple potential health effects of climate change. However, from 1990, journal articles focusing exclusively on infectious diseases and climate change appeared [ 72 , 73 , 74 ]. Early papers also focused on heat [ 75 ] and allergies [ 76 ]. From 2000, the foci of concerns expanded greatly. Additional topics included reduced micronutrient concentrations in food [ 77 ], asthma [ 78 ], thunderstorm asthma [ 79 ], chronic diseases and obesity [ 80 ], toxin exposure (such as from increased concentrations in Arctic mammals [ 81 ] and increased algal blooms [ 82 ]), forest fires [ 83 ], mental health [ 84 ] and respiratory [ 85 ], cardio-vascular [ 86 ], renal [ 87 ], fetal [ 88 ], genito-urinal [ 89 ] and skin conditions [ 90 ]. By 2000, papers were also appearing arguing that the impact of climate change for malaria was overstated [ 91 , 92 ].

Articles also appeared on the impact of climate change on groups such as indigenous people [ 93 ], children [ 94 ], the elderly [ 95 ] and regions and locations, including cities [ 96 ], the Arctic [ 97 ] and small island states [ 98 ] as well as many individual nations. Other themes appeared, including on how the health sector might reduce its carbon footprint [ 99 ], on “co-benefits” [ 100 ], on climate change as a great opportunity to improve public health [ 101 ], on medical education [ 102 ], pharmaceuticals [ 103 ] and on the health risks of adaptation and geoengineering, including of carbon capture and storage [ 104 ].

3.3. The Leadership Role of Some Journals

Many journals played prominent, even campaigning roles, especially the Lancet, BMJ and Environmental Health Perspectives. Several journals had special issues, including Global Health Action, the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, the Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health and Health Promotion International. Seven journals published at least 28 articles each, including editorials and news items (see Table A4 in Appendix ). At least 34 journals published editorials, which, with an average score of 2.2, were more likely to be scored as two or three than journal articles (average score 1.3). News items and other journalistic pieces had an average score of 1.6. At least 21 articles were published in nursing journals, with an average score of 1.67.

3.4. Papers for the Period 2014–2017

A total of 3377 papers were identified by PubMed as published from 2014–2017. Of these, 346 were found to be ineligible, although the true number would be higher, if all candidates were examined. Of the potentially eligible remainder, 113 papers were published in 2018, but recorded by PubMed as e-published in 2017. Slightly over five percent of the articles for each year was randomly selected, resulting in 156 articles (see Table A5 in Appendix ). Their average score and 95% confidence interval, estimated by bootstrapping, was 1.29 (95% CI 1.21–1.39) (see Figure A2 in Appendix ). Details of these 156 papers are in the supplementary material . Note that their citations were not checked.

4. Discussion

This paper describes the first published analysis of the extent to which the literature on climate change and health has described or in other ways engaged with “existential” risk. By including 2000 articles, 60 editorials and 83 news items (2143 “papers” in total) on climate change and health, it is by far the largest review of the climate change and health literature to have so far been published. Lack of resources currently prevents an extension of the fuller analysis to more recent years. However, a randomly selected sample of 156 articles for papers identified by PubMed as published in the period 2014–2017 found that these papers had an average score lower than the average score for any quintile from 1989–2013, other than for 1999–2003 (see Table A2 and Table A5 in Appendix ).

Several systematic and other reviews of topics related to climate change and health have been published, but on a much smaller scale, and with different research questions. Ford and Pearce systematically reviewed 420 papers, published between 1990 and 2009, exploring the topic of climate change vulnerability in the Canadian western Arctic [ 105 ]. Two systematic reviews concerned heat. Huang et al. [ 106 ] searched for papers published between 1980 and July 2010, projecting the heat related mortality under climate change scenarios. Only 14 papers were included in their final analysis. Xu et al. [ 107 ] explored the relationship between heat waves and children’s health, but selected twelve, an even small number. A systematic review into dengue fever and climate change (for the period 1991–2012) included 16 studies [ 108 ].

Nichols et al. (2009) [ 109 ] undertook a systematic review on health, climate change and energy vulnerability, searching for papers published in English between 1998 and 2008. They retrieved 114 papers but included only 36 in their final analysis. Bouzid et al. (2013) undertook a “systematic review of systematic reviews” to explore the effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce the health impact of climate change [ 110 ]. This identified over 3100 unique records, but of these, only 85 full papers were assessed, with 33 included in the final review.

This may also be the first review paper concerning climate change and health to use a citation analysis [ 111 ] as an indicator of influence. Citations in Google Scholar were used for convenience and cost. Although such citations are prone to error, and include essays in the gray literature, they still reflect influence. Some reports in the gray literature may be more widely read and more influential than more scholarly work.

4.1. Selection and Other Forms of Bias

A systematic review was not undertaken. However, all papers identified by searching using PubMed and at least 100 papers for each year identified by Google Scholar were considered for inclusion. The search term relevant to health was restricted to a single word, rather than synonyms such as “disease”, “morbidity”, “illness”, or “mortality”. Undoubtedly, a search using additional terms will identify more papers, as would a systematic review.

To examine the possibility that a more extensive search strategy would alter the conclusions, PubMed was also searched for the terms “climate change” and “morbidity” for papers published in 2013. This strategy identified 261 papers, compared to 496 when searching for “climate change” and “health”. Of these 261 papers, 30 had not previously been identified by the other search methods used, and met the other inclusion criteria. However, all of these additional papers were scored as one. Their inclusion in the final analysis was considered likely to bias the paper away from the null hypothesis, by accentuating the fraction of papers not scored as two or three. This bias towards papers scored one (i.e., identified by searching for “morbidity”) seems plausible because the term morbidity may be more likely to be associated with specific diseases than the term “health”. These papers therefore were not added to the analysis.

The search was supplemented by the addition of 17 papers first identified from the author’s own database, but not later found by the search strategy using Google Scholar or PubMed (steps 2–3) as described in Figure A1 . Eight of these 17 papers, five of which the author wrote or co-wrote, were scored as three. Their average score was 2.17, far higher than for the balance (1.23). This group also includes two editorials, one published in the Lancet, one in the BMJ. The inclusion of one of these editorials (scored as three, published in 1989) has biased the findings in favor of the hypothesis that highly scored papers were more common in the early period of this literature. Note, however, that no citations were recorded for this editorial.

The inclusion of these higher scoring papers later in the period of analysis has biased the result to the null, that is, away from the hypothesis that fewer such papers were published from about 2000. The most influential of these 17 papers, judged by Google Scholar citations, was cited 272 times. It was the first to report that rising levels of carbon dioxide depress micronutrient concentrations in food [ 77 ]. The other 16 papers were cited 405 times between them, an average of 25, which is low compared to the average citation number (94). Twenty eight other papers were included, mostly identified from special issues. Their average score was 1.9. One paper was identified post-review, by chance. It was scored as two (perhaps generously) and was included because it was judged that to exclude it would bias the result away from the null hypothesis.

Bias is also likely to have been introduced in the scoring process, but not to the extent that it could challenge the main conclusions. The rigor of this paper would be improved if the scores could be checked by a third party, blind to the first score. Unfortunately, no resources were available for this purpose. Some classification errors are likely, especially for papers for which the author had no previous familiarity, and if published after 2009, when, due to time pressure, many papers were scored rapidly. On the other hand, in the process of ranking over 2000 papers the author became skilled at making rapid decisions, especially for most papers scored as one. The difference between papers scored one and two was generally more apparent than for papers scored between two and three. In cases of doubt a higher score was always selected.

The likelihood of bias and error is unlikely to explain the difference in the character of the papers in the early period and those which later dominated. Although the widely cited paper by Costello et al. [ 11 ] (1583 citations as of June 2018) may have refreshed appreciation of the potentially catastrophic nature of climate change, the majority of papers and their citations published between 2010 and 2013 continued to focus on specific issues. This trend appears to have persisted in the years since, judged by the analysis of a randomly selected sample, identified by PubMed as published between 2014 and 2018.

4.2. Reasons for the Apparent Conservatism of the Literature

There are several plausible, overlapping and interacting explanations for the decline in the proportion of papers scored as two or three (and for their comparatively fewer citations) following 1996, and also in the failure for papers published since 2009 to fully amplify the most severe warnings. One likely contributing explanation is self-censorship. The topic of climate change and health is unfamiliar territory for many health editors and writers. Climate change has become politicized in many English-speaking countries, especially in the U.S. and Australia. Although comparatively few health workers have expertise concerning climate change and health, the readership of some health journals seems judged, by their editor, to be skeptical of, or even to reject climate science. For example, one editor, defending the decision to publish a paper (scored, possibly generously, as two) [ 112 ] seemed almost apologetic, writing “On its face, the paper by Hess and colleagues is largely a political commentary and a departure from the types of articles found in Academic Emergency Medicine” [ 113 ].

Thus, for some health workers and editors, even broaching the topic of climate change and health may be a courageous act. The publication of papers in health journals that describe potential pathways that could threaten civilization would appear even bolder. It is unsurprising that such papers are still fairly uncommon, at least until 2014, and particularly in journals which do not yet have a long tradition of publishing papers or editorials on this topic.

In the early period of the climate and health literature (1989–1993) some of the most outspoken articles were editorials. Perhaps at that time, there was a certain sense of shock concerning climate change, which has since waned. It was also a time when concerns about overpopulation were slightly less taboo [ 114 , 115 , 116 ]. However, editorials in more years also tend to have a higher index of concern than other articles.

Another likely contributor to the comparative degree of restraint is the view, backed by some research, that an excess of fear is counter-productive [ 117 ]. However, the smell of smoke in a theater requires the sounding of a vigorous alarm. Compounding the difficulty of communicating the risk over climate change is the lag between the whiff of smoke and the onset of visible fire. Hansen warned of great danger over thirty years ago, and he, with others, have issued many warnings since [ 118 ]. Sceptics are still waiting to see the metaphorical “flames” of climate change, even disputing the link between literal flames (fires) and climate change.

On the other hand, science, though not infallible, has delivered countless miracles such as antisepsis, anesthesia, penicillin and the jet engine. It has long warned of the physical changes of climate change. We who work in health should not be amazed if the predictions of climate and Earth scientists prove broadly accurate. Social science is less precise than climatology [ 43 ], however the links between food insecurity, drought, sea level rise, migration and, in some places, conflict are, also, surely not far-fetched. Papers that fail to express appreciation of the extraordinary risks we face as civilization may be judged by people of the future as having failed in their duty of care to protect health.

Another likely reason for the general restraint in the literature is the fragmentation of science and limited funding for multidisciplinary work. Comparatively few authors, other than if collaborating in large, multidisciplinary teams (rare for most authors primarily concerned with health), are rewarded or funded for thinking systemically. This problem is possibly worsening. Related to this, many recent papers are by sub-disciplines of health that have not previously published on the topic of climate change. Such papers are probably less likely to discuss existential risk.

As the effects of climate change have become increasingly clear the need for adaptation has become overwhelming. A stress on adaptation does not necessarily reflect any underestimation of the eventual severity of climate change. However, a stress on adaptation at the expense of mitigation may do so. In many countries, political leadership favors adaptation.

5. Conclusions

In 1989, thirty two years after the International Geophysical Year, the first papers on global warming and health appeared in the world’s leading medical journals [ 3 , 6 , 7 ]. All three of these early papers warned of severe, even existential risk and were each scored as three.

In 1990 McCally and Cassel warned that “progression of these environmental changes could lead to unprecedented human suffering” [ 119 ]. Also, in 1990, Fiona Godlee, then deputy editor of the BMJ, wrote “Countries in the developing world would suffer both the direct effects of drought and flood and the knock-on effect of agricultural and economic decline in the West. The already present problems of feeding the world’s growing population would be compounded by the increasing numbers of displaced people unable to grow their own food” [ 120 ]. In 1992 Powles observed “It is possible that adverse lagged effects of current industrial (and military) activities will disrupt the habitat of future generations of our species through processes such as stratospheric ozone depletion, global warming and others as yet unpredicted” [ 121 ]. However, in the following years, this sense of urgency largely dissipated, until the long paper by Costello et al. in 2009 [ 11 ].

Conditioned by growing up during the Cold War, the author has long been apprehensive about civilization’s survival. However, my timeline for global health disaster has always been multi-decadal. Civilizational collapse, if it is to occur, will not necessarily be in my own lifetime [ 54 ]. My concerns are not based solely on climate change. Climate change, by itself, is most unlikely to cripple civilization. A well-functioning global society, motivated to do so, could easily eliminate hunger and poverty, not only today, but under all but worst-case climate change. Refugees from inundated islands, war-torn Syria or the drought-stricken Chad basin [ 122 ] could easily be accommodated in more fertile and more elevated parts of the world. Unfortunately, humans currently do not co-operate on such a scale, and this behavior may, in part, be driven by inborn, “hard-wired”, evolutionary-shaped traits [ 123 ]. If civilization is to endure we may need to collectively overcome our seemingly deep wiring for tribalism and separation.

Acknowledgments

My thanks to John Potter for his help with locating obscure references, and to Andy Morse and Kristie Ebi for their very helpful comments, and Joseph Guillaume for his statistical advice. I especially thank Ivan Hanigan for the bootstrap analysis. I also thank three anonymous reviewers.

Supplementary Materials

The following are available online at http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/10/2266/s1 .

Appendix A.1. Detailed Methods and Results

The search method had six steps (see Figure A1 ). Initial exploration used the author’s Endnote database, of over 35,000 references, to find relevant articles. The second step was to search, using Google Scholar, for up to the first 100 results for each year in the search period (1980–2013), using the terms “climate change” and health or “global warming” and “health”. For the first decade in which relevant articles were found (1989–1998) both pairs of terms were used, but from 1999 to 2013 inclusive, only the former terms were used (“climate change” and “health”). In the third step, the search was expanded by seeking the same terms, using PubMed, for the same period; 1980–2013 (inclusive). After eliminating duplicates, all remaining papers were checked to ensure that they met the eligibility criteria listed in Box 1 . In stage 4, several papers were included if they appeared in special issues of journals, together with articles identified by PubMed, or suggested by colleagues. In stage 5, the BMJ database for news items about climate change and health was searched explored, because although PubMed found a few the proportion it identified was low. Finally, in stage 6, several other papers were found by chance, such as in reviews, in the references of cited papers, or by searching for other papers.

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Outline of the six stage search strategy for papers published from 1989–2013.

Appendix A.2. Further Scoring Details

The following details are provided in order to provide additional information about the scoring process. It discusses the scoring process for three highly cited papers (from 2005–2007), each of which was scored as two. The first (cited 2059 times) had no mention of population displacement or conflict, but included the sentence “Projections of the effect of climate change on food crop yield production globally appear to be broadly neutral, but climate change will probably exacerbate regional food supply inequalities” [ 124 ]. This statement was assessed as accepting the possibility of a degree of food scarcity judged to be more severe than that described by many papers (particularly concerning the Arctic) which discuss a likely impairment in regional nutrition, but do not forecast insufficient calories or nutrients, let alone famine. Although the conclusion regarding overall global food security in this paper was reassuring, there are already four acknowledged famines in African nations and one in Yemen [ 125 ]. Any exacerbation of regional food supply inequalities is therefore likely to result in aggravated famines, unless future famines are eliminated; an unlikely prospect. Because this paper was cited so frequently a lower score would impact the overall result. If there is a bias from scoring this paper as two it is towards the null hypothesis.

In 2006 a widely cited paper [ 126 ] stated “Other important climatic risks to health, from changes in regional food yields, disruption of fisheries, loss of livelihoods, and population displacement (because of sea-level rise, water shortages, etc.) are less easy to study than these factors and their causal processes and effects are less easily quantified”. This is a more comprehensive list of civilization-endangering effects than the paper discussed above, but the language is restrained and brief. It was scored as a two.

In 2007 another widely cited paper included the sentences “Climate change will, itself, affect food yields around the world unevenly. Although some regions, mostly at mid-to-high latitude, could experience gains, many (e.g., in sub-Saharan Africa) are likely to be adversely affected, with impairment of both nutrition and incomes. Population displacement and conflict are also likely, because of various factors including food insecurity, desertification, sea-level rise, and increased extreme weather events” [ 127 ]. Of the three papers discussed here this provided the most comprehensive list of such effects and also explores their interaction. However, it did not speculate about civilization collapse, nor describe climate change as the biggest threat to global public health.

A gradient exists between papers scored two or three, rather than a clear threshold. Papers were not scored as three simply by including a more detailed explanation or assertion of the existence and importance of conflict, migration or famine, even if an interaction among them was suggested. They needed something extra. For example, one paper [ 128 ] stated (referring to Costello et al. [ 11 ]) “a watershed paper … suggests that climate change represents the biggest potential threat to human health in the twenty-first century … a recent report … also estimates that four billion people are vulnerable and 500 million people are at extreme risk”. This paper was scored as three even though the paper focused on medical education. Although the phrase “the biggest potential threat to human health in the twenty-first century” can, with repetition, lose its capacity to shock, its meaning, if taken literally, is surely sufficiently dire to be scored as three.

Another paper (scored as three) stated “global health, population growth, economic development, environmental degradation, and climate change are the main challenges we face in the 21st century” [ 129 ]. It also stated that “significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change”.

The interpretation of papers was not excessively generous. For example, a paper that noted: “Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events have had profound effects on both human society and the natural environment” was scored as one because there was no discussion of this aspect in the abstract or further in the text. It was also considered that the words “have had profound” was insufficiently clear. Nor did the paper discuss conflict, migration or famine.

In contrast, two papers about climate change and health in Nepal were scored as two, as they included the statements “Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries” (sic) [ 130 ] and “Climate change is a global issue in this century which has challenged the survival of living creatures affecting the life supporting systems of the earth: atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere” [ 131 ].

Appendix A.3. Sources (Detailed)

Seventeen articles were identified from the author’s database, but not found via PubMed or Google Scholar. Other sources are shown in Table A4 .

This shows the primary source of the 2146 included articles. 18 articles were from special issues, 5 were found accidentally, 1 was from a review and 1 was from a colleague. Many articles were found using multiple methods. The papers listed here in the GS column were not found by PM but may also have been identified by CB. Abbreviations: PM = PubMed, GS = Google Scholar, CB = Colin Butler.

Appendix A.4. Score, Citation and Journal Details

This shows the number of articles and their average score for each quintile from 1989–1993.

This shows the number of papers and citations in each category divided into five quintiles for the 25 years of analysis. Note that in the third quintile (1999–2003) only 5 articles were ranked as three. Ironically, the paper scored as three in 2002 was a news item which quoted Andrew Sims, policy director of the New Economics Foundation as lamenting “Health is not even being talked about here [Delhi], although the potential health impact is a devastating one, almost unimaginable” [ 132 ].

Ten journals published at least 22 articles on climate change and health in the period 1989–2013.

Appendix A.5. Additional Papers 2014–2018

PubMed was searched for the terms “climate change” and “health” for the period 2014–2017 inclusive. This found 3377 papers, which were grouped by year of publication and listed alphabetically, by surname of the first author. Every 20th paper (in each year) was then examined. If a paper was found to be ineligible, successive consecutive (alphabetical) candidates were examined until at least 5% of the total maximum number for each year had been found eligible and analyzed. In total, 156 papers were scored. This sample represented 5.1% of the 3036 papers which remained after 341 of the original pool had been eliminated. More would be excluded, given a more thorough inspection. The average score of these 156 articles and their 95% confidence interval, determined by bootstrapping, was 1.29 (1.21–1.39). The average score of these papers is lower than for the papers published from 2009–2013 (1.37). Although the 95% confidence interval for the period 2014–2018 overlaps with this, there is no evidence to suggest that the more recent literature better recognizes existential risk. See Table A5 and Figure A2 .

This shows the number, number analyzed and scores for the 156 papers that were analyzed for the period 2014–2018, tabulated by year. Note that some of the candidate papers would be culled after further examination.

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This shows the density of means and distributions for each year (2014–2017), based on 10,000 bootstrapped resamples (with replacement from the set for each year) and also for papers from 2013–2018 inclusive.

This research received no external funding.

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

ENCYCLOPEDIC ENTRY

Global warming.

The causes, effects, and complexities of global warming are important to understand so that we can fight for the health of our planet.

Earth Science, Climatology

Tennessee Power Plant

Ash spews from a coal-fueled power plant in New Johnsonville, Tennessee, United States.

Photograph by Emory Kristof/ National Geographic

Global warming is the long-term warming of the planet’s overall temperature. Though this warming trend has been going on for a long time, its pace has significantly increased in the last hundred years due to the burning of fossil fuels . As the human population has increased, so has the volume of fossil fuels burned. Fossil fuels include coal, oil, and natural gas, and burning them causes what is known as the “greenhouse effect” in Earth’s atmosphere.

The greenhouse effect is when the sun’s rays penetrate the atmosphere, but when that heat is reflected off the surface cannot escape back into space. Gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels prevent the heat from leaving the atmosphere. These greenhouse gasses are carbon dioxide , chlorofluorocarbons, water vapor , methane , and nitrous oxide . The excess heat in the atmosphere has caused the average global temperature to rise overtime, otherwise known as global warming.

Global warming has presented another issue called climate change. Sometimes these phrases are used interchangeably, however, they are different. Climate change refers to changes in weather patterns and growing seasons around the world. It also refers to sea level rise caused by the expansion of warmer seas and melting ice sheets and glaciers . Global warming causes climate change, which poses a serious threat to life on Earth in the forms of widespread flooding and extreme weather. Scientists continue to study global warming and its impact on Earth.

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Scientific Consensus

It’s important to remember that scientists always focus on the evidence, not on opinions. Scientific evidence continues to show that human activities ( primarily the human burning of fossil fuels ) have warmed Earth’s surface and its ocean basins, which in turn have continued to impact Earth’s climate . This is based on over a century of scientific evidence forming the structural backbone of today's civilization.

NASA Global Climate Change presents the state of scientific knowledge about climate change while highlighting the role NASA plays in better understanding our home planet. This effort includes citing multiple peer-reviewed studies from research groups across the world, 1 illustrating the accuracy and consensus of research results (in this case, the scientific consensus on climate change) consistent with NASA’s scientific research portfolio.

With that said, multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals 1 show that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources.

American Scientific Societies

Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations.

"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009) 2

American Association for the Advancement of Science

"Based on well-established evidence, about 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening." (2014) 3

American Chemical Society

"The Earth’s climate is changing in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate matter in the atmosphere, largely as the result of human activities." (2016-2019) 4

American Geophysical Union

"Based on extensive scientific evidence, it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. There is no alterative explanation supported by convincing evidence." (2019) 5

American Medical Association

"Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant." (2019) 6

American Meteorological Society

"Research has found a human influence on the climate of the past several decades ... The IPCC (2013), USGCRP (2017), and USGCRP (2018) indicate that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century." (2019) 7

American Physical Society

"Earth's changing climate is a critical issue and poses the risk of significant environmental, social and economic disruptions around the globe. While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century." (2015) 8

The Geological Society of America

"The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2011), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013) and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (Melillo et al., 2014) that global climate has warmed in response to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases ... Human activities (mainly greenhouse-gas emissions) are the dominant cause of the rapid warming since the middle 1900s (IPCC, 2013)." (2015) 9

Science Academies

International academies: joint statement.

"Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." (2005, 11 international science academies) 1 0

U.S. National Academy of Sciences

"Scientists have known for some time, from multiple lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate, primarily through greenhouse gas emissions." 1 1

U.S. Government Agencies

U.s. global change research program.

"Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities." (2018, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies) 12

Intergovernmental Bodies

Intergovernmental panel on climate change.

“It is unequivocal that the increase of CO 2 , methane, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere over the industrial era is the result of human activities and that human influence is the principal driver of many changes observed across the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere. “Since systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact.” 1 3-17

Other Resources

List of worldwide scientific organizations.

The following page lists the nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations that hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action. http://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.html

U.S. Agencies

The following page contains information on what federal agencies are doing to adapt to climate change. https://www.c2es.org/site/assets/uploads/2012/02/climate-change-adaptation-what-federal-agencies-are-doing.pdf

Technically, a “consensus” is a general agreement of opinion, but the scientific method steers us away from this to an objective framework. In science, facts or observations are explained by a hypothesis (a statement of a possible explanation for some natural phenomenon), which can then be tested and retested until it is refuted (or disproved).

As scientists gather more observations, they will build off one explanation and add details to complete the picture. Eventually, a group of hypotheses might be integrated and generalized into a scientific theory, a scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to explain phenomena.

1. K. Myers, et al, "Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later", Environmental Research Letters Vol.16 No. 10, 104030 (20 October 2021); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2774 M. Lynas, et al, "Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature", Environmental Research Letters Vol.16 No. 11, 114005 (19 October 2021); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966 J. Cook et al., "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming", Environmental Research Letters Vol. 11 No. 4, (13 April 2016); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 J. Cook et al., "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature", Environmental Research Letters Vol. 8 No. 2, (15 May 2013); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024 W. R. L. Anderegg, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107 No. 27, 12107-12109 (21 June 2010); DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107 P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change", Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union Vol. 90 Issue 3 (2009), 22; DOI: 10.1029/2009EO030002 N. Oreskes, “Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change”, Science Vol. 306 no. 5702, p. 1686 (3 December 2004); DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618

2. Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations (2009)

3. AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change (2014)

4. ACS Public Policy Statement: Climate Change (2016-2019)

5. Society Must Address the Growing Climate Crisis Now (2019)

6. Global Climate Change and Human Health (2019)

7. Climate Change: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (2019)

8. American Physical Society (2021)

9. GSA Position Statement on Climate Change (2015)

10. Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change (2005)

11. Climate at the National Academies

12. Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume II (2018)

13. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, SPM 1.1 (2014)

14. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, SPM 1 (2014)

15. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (2021)

16. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 2 (2022)

17. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 3 (2022)

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Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction (2nd edn)

A newer edition of this book is available.

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10 (page 173) p. 173 Conclusion

Published: November 2008
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The ‘Conclusion’ confirms that global warming is the major challenge for our global society. There is very little doubt that global warming will change our climate in the next century. So what are the solutions to global warming? First, there must be an international political solution. Second, funding for developing cheap and clean energy production must be increased, as all economic development is based on increasing energy usage. We must not pin all our hopes on global politics and clean energy technology, so we must prepare for the worst and adapt. If implemented now, a lot of the costs and damage that could be caused by changing climate can be mitigated.

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Essay on Global Warming – Causes and Solutions

500+ words essay on global warming.

Global Warming is a term almost everyone is familiar with. But, its meaning is still not clear to most of us. So, Global warming refers to the gradual rise in the overall temperature of the atmosphere of the Earth. There are various activities taking place which have been increasing the temperature gradually. Global warming is melting our ice glaciers rapidly. This is extremely harmful to the earth as well as humans. It is quite challenging to control global warming; however, it is not unmanageable. The first step in solving any problem is identifying the cause of the problem. Therefore, we need to first understand the causes of global warming that will help us proceed further in solving it. In this essay on Global Warming, we will see the causes and solutions of Global Warming.

Causes of Global Warming

Global warming has become a grave problem which needs undivided attention. It is not happening because of a single cause but several causes. These causes are both natural as well as manmade. The natural causes include the release of greenhouses gases which are not able to escape from earth, causing the temperature to increase.

Get English Important Questions here

Further, volcanic eruptions are also responsible for global warming. That is to say, these eruptions release tons of carbon dioxide which contributes to global warming. Similarly, methane is also one big issue responsible for global warming.

So, when one of the biggest sources of absorption of carbon dioxide will only disappear, there will be nothing left to regulate the gas. Thus, it will result in global warming. Steps must be taken immediately to stop global warming and make the earth better again.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas

Global Warming Solutions

As stated earlier, it might be challenging but it is not entirely impossible. Global warming can be stopped when combined efforts are put in. For that, individuals and governments, both have to take steps towards achieving it. We must begin with the reduction of greenhouse gas.

Furthermore, they need to monitor the consumption of gasoline. Switch to a hybrid car and reduce the release of carbon dioxide. Moreover, citizens can choose public transport or carpool together. Subsequently, recycling must also be encouraged.

Read Global Warming Speech here

For instance, when you go shopping, carry your own cloth bag. Another step you can take is to limit the use of electricity which will prevent the release of carbon dioxide. On the government’s part, they must regulate industrial waste and ban them from emitting harmful gases in the air. Deforestation must be stopped immediately and planting of trees must be encouraged.

In short, all of us must realize the fact that our earth is not well. It needs to treatment and we can help it heal. The present generation must take up the responsibility of stopping global warming in order to prevent the suffering of future generations. Therefore, every little step, no matter how small carries a lot of weight and is quite significant in stopping global warming.

हिंदी में ग्लोबल वार्मिंग पर निबंध यहाँ पढ़ें

FAQs on Global Warming

Q.1 List the causes of Global Warming.

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A.2 Global warming can be stopped by a joint effort by the individuals and the government. Deforestation must be banned and trees should be planted more. The use of automobiles must be limited and recycling must be encouraged.

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Global Warming: A Review of the Debates on the Causes, Consequences and Politics of Global Response

Arega Bazezew Berlie University of Ghana

A review of the causes, consequences and political responses to global warming is the focus of this paper. The term global warming is now popularly used to refer to the concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere attributed mainly to human activities. Evidence show that, there has been an intense and often emotional debate on the causes and consequences of global warming for many years. Though, the causes are still widely disputed and lack consensuses among proponents, much of the evidence prove to be increasing global warming. It is no longer a prediction— it is actually happening. Major indicators include extinction of many species, population displacement/migration, desertification, famine, drought and chronic food insecurity. Governments, the scientific community and politicians are not unanimous to reduce global warming which emanate from their political positions and conflict of interests. The center of the debate is what causes global warming. In the scientific literature, there is a strong argument that global warming has intensified in recent decades and the changes are more of human-induced greenhouse gases emissions. However, opponents of anthropogenic global warming at the other extreme strongly argue that the cause of global warming is natural and the contribution of humans is minimal. These project the issue of global warming at the forefront of the international political agenda and make it a major political, institutional and environmental challenge of our time. The general objective of the study is to discuss the debates among the politicians and scientific communities on the causes and consequences of global warming. In this regard, the relevant literature in relation to the debates on global warming are reviewed. Finally, global warming is inevitable and no longer a prediction. Alternative actions such as climate change adaptation and/or mitigation measures have to be given top priority besides the reduction of dangerous greenhouse gas emissions.

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Editorial: Climate change is already here. 2020 could be your last chance to stop an apocalypse

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The world is drifting steadily toward a climate catastrophe. For many of us, that’s been clear for a few years or maybe a decade or even a few decades.

But others have known that a reckoning was coming for much longer . A Swedish scientist first calculated in 1896 that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere could lead to warmer global temperatures. By the 1930s, scientists were measuring the increase , and in the late 1960s, they had documented the impact of melting ice in Antarctica . By 1977, Exxon-Mobil had recognized its own role in the warming of the ocean, the polar ice melt and the rising sea level.

For obvious reasons, Exxon-Mobil launched a massive public disinformation campaign to muddy the science and downplay the danger. But in retrospect, it needn’t have bothered. Because even after the facts became incontestably clear, the world did shockingly little to protect itself. In the first 17 years after the Kyoto protocol committed its signatories to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, global emissions continued to rise. Decades of studied ignorance, political cowardice, cynical denialism and irresponsible dithering have allowed the problem to grow deeper and immeasurably harder to solve.

A three-part series on climate change

Part 2: Wealthy countries are responsible for climate change, but it’s the poor who will suffer most Part 3: Surviving climate change means an end to burning fossil fuels. Prepare yourself for sacrifices

But today, we are at an important turning point. The changing climate is no longer an abstract threat lurking in our distant future — it is upon us. We feel it. We see it. In our longer and deeper droughts and our more brutal hurricanes and raging, hyper-destructive wildfires. And with that comes a new urgency, and a new opportunity, to act.

Climate change is now simply impossible to ignore. The temperature reached a record-breaking 90 degrees in Anchorage this summer and an unprecedented 108 degrees in Paris. We can watch glaciers melting and collapsing on the web; ice losses in Antarctica have tripled since 2012 so that sea levels are rising faster today than at any time in the last quarter-century. Human migration patterns are already changing in Africa and Latin America as extreme weather events disrupt crop patterns, harm harvests and force farmers off their land, sending climate refugees to Europe and the United States.

It’s often difficult to attribute specific events to climate change but, clearly, strange things are happening. In India, entire cities are running out of water, thanks, scientists say, to a dangerous combination of mismanagement and climate change. In Syria, the civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 11 million is believed by many scientists to have been sparked at least in part by climate-related drought and warming. Closer to home, two invasive, non-native mosquito species that have the potential to transmit viruses, including dengue, Zika and yellow fever have recently been found in several California cities.

According to NASA, 18 of the 19 warmest years ever recorded have occurred since 2000. The last five years have been the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880. July set an all-time record .

Here’s another reason we’re at a turning point (at least in the United States): An election is coming.

For three years, Americans have been living under the willfully blind, anti-scientific, business-coddling rule of President Trump, who has stubbornly chosen climate denial over rationality. We now have an opportunity to resoundingly reject his policies by voting him out of office, along with congressional Republicans who enable him. There are plenty of reasons to fight for Trump’s defeat in November 2020, but his deeply irresponsible climate policies — including moving to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement, roll back Barack Obama’s emission limits on coal-fired plants, rescind rules governing methane emissions and relax national fuel emission standards — are among the strongest.

It is late — terribly late — for action, but with some luck, perhaps it is not too late to avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change. In nations across the world, people finally recognize climate change as a top or very serious threat, according to the Pew Research Center. In the U.S., even Republican voters — and especially younger ones — are waking up to the realities and dangers of a warming planet.

Fewer and fewer people today doubt the overwhelming scientific evidence: By burning fossil fuels for energy, humans have added so much carbon (and other greenhouse gases) to the atmosphere that we are changing nature itself, imperiling the delicate interdependence among species and putting our own survival at risk. Scientists say with certainty that we must radically transform how we make and use energy within a decade if we are to have any chance of mitigating the damage.

There are plenty of reasons to fight for Trump’s defeat in November 2020, but his deeply irresponsible climate policies ... are among the strongest.

But figuring out what must be done at this late stage is complicated. There are a wide range of emissions sources and many ways to approach them, ranging from the microsteps that can be taken by individuals — Do you have to take that car trip? That airline flight? — to the much more important macro-policies that must be adopted by nations.

Globally, 25% of greenhouse gas emissions today comes from burning fossil fuels to create heat and electricity, mostly for residential and commercial buildings; another 23% is the result of burning fuel for industrial uses. And 14% comes from transportation.

All that burning of carbon fuels needs to end; yet unless policies and politics change dramatically, it won’t end. Even in this time of heightened clarity, two-thirds of new passenger vehicles bought in the U.S. last year were gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs. Those SUVs will be on the road an average of eight years, and the pickups for more than 13 years, as the time to address the climate problem slips away. Blame for this falls not just on consumers, but also on the manufacturers and the government, which has done too little to disincentivize the driving of gas-powered cars.

In the years since Kyoto, the world has undertaken significant efforts to ratchet down energy consumption, curtail coal burning (the dirtiest of the fossil fuels) and turn to renewable energy sources, yet overall emissions have increased. Today there are 7.7 billion people on the planet — twice as many as 50 years ago — and more people means more demand for power, especially in fast-growing countries such as India and China. Last year saw a global acceleration of emissions, as total carbon levels in the atmosphere reached 414.8 parts per million in May, the highest recorded in 3 million years. The richer human society becomes, it seems, the more we poison the world.

LEE VINING, CA, JULY 5, 2017: The snow is melting and dripping along Hwy. 120, Tioga Road about ten miles west of Lee Vining, California and running downstream into Lee Vining Creek and Tioga Lake July 5, 2017 (Mark Boster/Los Angeles Times ).

Editorial: Why we wrote our series on climate change

The Los Angeles Times editorial board has written about climate change for years. Here’s why we thought this was the right moment for a bigger, broader series of editorials on the subject.

At this point, the mission is no longer to avert or reverse climate change, but to mitigate its worst effects (by continuing to reduce emissions and slow warming) and to adapt to others. Adaptation might mean retreating from coastal developments as the seas rise or elevating roads and installing flooding pumps (as the city of Miami is already doing), or creating carbon sinks to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, all while continuing to try to curtail further emissions.

None of this is cheap or easy, but neither is the alternative. 2017 ranks as the costliest year for severe weather events and climate disasters worldwide; in the U.S. there was more than $300 billion in cumulative damage, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Obviously, the cost of dealing with inundated coastal areas — home to as many as 650 million people , or 8% of the world’s population — will be extraordinarily high . And that’s only one of the dangers on the horizon. We can expect people to be displaced by drought, river flooding, hurricanes and typhoons. Parts of the world can expect more food shortages, which some experts believe will lead in turn to political instability, civil unrest and mass migration. The U.S. military rightly refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier.”

Fighting the rise in temperature and sea levels will be tough. Our democracy doesn’t encourage politicians to take bold stances; our economic system doesn’t encourage companies to sacrifice profits for the common good. And we humans are understandably disinclined to live differently or to make sacrifices. But we must stop dawdling and forge ahead if we are to protect ourselves and our planet.

This is Part 1 of a three-part series on climate change.

Part 2: Wealthy countries are responsible for climate change, but it’s the poor who will suffer most

Part 3: Surviving climate change means an end to burning fossil fuels. Prepare yourself for sacrifices

Editorial: If 10 straight months of record-breaking heat isn’t a climate emergency, what is?

April 17, 2024

Taylor Swift fan cools off with a bottle of water amid a heat wave before The Eras Tour concert outside Nilton Santos Olympic stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. A 23-year-old Taylor Swift fan died at the singer's Eras Tour concert in Rio de Janeiro Friday night, according to a statement from the show's organizers in Brazil. (AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo)

Letters to the Editor: Another heat record? Nature is telling humanity that time’s up

April 15, 2024

McKittrick, California-APRIL 29, 2020-There are over 1,100 producing oil wells in the McKittrick oil field, just north of the town of McKittrick on Cal. State Route 33. With the falling price of oil, some pumpjacks that need repair are being left idle. (Carolyn Cole/Los Angeles Times)

Editorial: On climate change, world leaders are saying one thing and doing another

Nov. 27, 2023

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May 22, 2024

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May 21, 2024

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Published: 14 May 2024

2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years

Jan Esper ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3919-014X 1 , 2 ,
Max Torbenson ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2720-2238 1 &
Ulf Büntgen 2 , 3 , 4

Nature ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Climate change
Palaeoclimate

Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer 1 ,2 , 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record 3-5 . Contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is nontrivial, however, because the sparse 19 th century meteorological records tend to be too warm 6 . Here, we combine observed and reconstructed June-August (JJA) surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest NH extra-tropical summer over the past 2000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than half a degree Celsius. Comparison of the 2023 JJA warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in 536 CE reveals a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93°C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse gases-induced warming trend 7 that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event 8 , this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.

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Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany

Jan Esper & Max Torbenson

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic

Jan Esper & Ulf Büntgen

Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Ulf Büntgen

Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic

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Esper, J., Torbenson, M. & Büntgen, U. 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years. Nature (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y

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Climate Change: Evidence and Causes: Update 2020 (2020)

Chapter: conclusion, c onclusion.

This document explains that there are well-understood physical mechanisms by which changes in the amounts of greenhouse gases cause climate changes. It discusses the evidence that the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere have increased and are still increasing rapidly, that climate change is occurring, and that most of the recent change is almost certainly due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. Further climate change is inevitable; if emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, future changes will substantially exceed those that have occurred so far. There remains a range of estimates of the magnitude and regional expression of future change, but increases in the extremes of climate that can adversely affect natural ecosystems and human activities and infrastructure are expected.

Citizens and governments can choose among several options (or a mixture of those options) in response to this information: they can change their pattern of energy production and usage in order to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and hence the magnitude of climate changes; they can wait for changes to occur and accept the losses, damage, and suffering that arise; they can adapt to actual and expected changes as much as possible; or they can seek as yet unproven “geoengineering” solutions to counteract some of the climate changes that would otherwise occur. Each of these options has risks, attractions and costs, and what is actually done may be a mixture of these different options. Different nations and communities will vary in their vulnerability and their capacity to adapt. There is an important debate to be had about choices among these options, to decide what is best for each group or nation, and most importantly for the global population as a whole. The options have to be discussed at a global scale because in many cases those communities that are most vulnerable control few of the emissions, either past or future. Our description of the science of climate change, with both its facts and its uncertainties, is offered as a basis to inform that policy debate.

A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The following individuals served as the primary writing team for the 2014 and 2020 editions of this document:

Eric Wolff FRS, (UK lead), University of Cambridge
Inez Fung (NAS, US lead), University of California, Berkeley
Brian Hoskins FRS, Grantham Institute for Climate Change
John F.B. Mitchell FRS, UK Met Office
Tim Palmer FRS, University of Oxford
Benjamin Santer (NAS), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
John Shepherd FRS, University of Southampton
Keith Shine FRS, University of Reading.
Susan Solomon (NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research
John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois

Staff support for the 2020 revision was provided by Richard Walker, Amanda Purcell, Nancy Huddleston, and Michael Hudson. We offer special thanks to Rebecca Lindsey and NOAA Climate.gov for providing data and figure updates.

The following individuals served as reviewers of the 2014 document in accordance with procedures approved by the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences:

Richard Alley (NAS), Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University
Alec Broers FRS, Former President of the Royal Academy of Engineering
Harry Elderfield FRS, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge
Joanna Haigh FRS, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Imperial College London
Isaac Held (NAS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
John Kutzbach (NAS), Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin
Jerry Meehl, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research
John Pendry FRS, Imperial College London
John Pyle FRS, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge
Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Emily Shuckburgh, British Antarctic Survey
Gabrielle Walker, Journalist
Andrew Watson FRS, University of East Anglia

The Support for the 2014 Edition was provided by NAS Endowment Funds. We offer sincere thanks to the Ralph J. and Carol M. Cicerone Endowment for NAS Missions for supporting the production of this 2020 Edition.

F OR FURTHER READING

For more detailed discussion of the topics addressed in this document (including references to the underlying original research), see:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [ https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc ]
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), 2019: Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25259 ]
Royal Society, 2018: Greenhouse gas removal [ https://raeng.org.uk/greenhousegasremoval ]
U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), 2018: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States [ https://nca2018.globalchange.gov ]
IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C [ https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 ]
USGCRP, 2017: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume I: Climate Science Special Reports [ https://science2017.globalchange.gov ]
NASEM, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852 ]
IPCC, 2013: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Working Group 1. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis [ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1 ]
NRC, 2013: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18373 ]
NRC, 2011: Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12877 ]
Royal Society 2010: Climate Change: A Summary of the Science [ https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary-science ]
NRC, 2010: America’s Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12782 ]

Much of the original data underlying the scientific findings discussed here are available at:

https://data.ucar.edu/
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu
https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu
https://ess-dive.lbl.gov/
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu
http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth's climate. The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to promote the use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates, produced the original Climate Change: Evidence and Causes in 2014. It was written and reviewed by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists. This new edition, prepared by the same author team, has been updated with the most recent climate data and scientific analyses, all of which reinforce our understanding of human-caused climate change.

Scientific information is a vital component for society to make informed decisions about how to reduce the magnitude of climate change and how to adapt to its impacts. This booklet serves as a key reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and others seeking authoritative answers about the current state of climate-change science.

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Small island states hail ocean court victory on greenhouse gases

Ruling says countries' targets for cutting greenhouse emissions must be set based on best available science.

A representative with a flower in her hair and other representatives of a group of nine small island states in the Pacific and Caribbean sit in a courtroom.

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A global maritime court found on Tuesday that greenhouse gases constitute marine pollution, a major breakthrough for small island states threatened by the rise in sea levels caused by global warming.

In its first climate-related judgment, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea said emissions from fossil fuels and other planet-warming gases that are absorbed by the oceans count as marine pollution.

Its ruling — an "advisory opinion" that should nevertheless provide a precedent for cases elsewhere — also said countries must go beyond the requirements of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement to protect the marine environment and the states that depend on it.

"What happened today was that the law and science met together in this tribunal, and both won," said Cheryl Bazard, ambassador to the European Union of the Bahamas, one of nine Caribbean and Pacific island nations that sought the opinion.

Small island nations with scant economic power but acutely vulnerable to climate change have long felt neglected by successive global summits where pledges to cut carbon emissions have fallen far short of the minimum for limiting the worst effects of global warming.

Can the law of the sea save island states from rising water?
Who is liable for the climate crisis? Canadians are going to court to find out

The court said states have a legal obligation to monitor and reduce the emissions that contribute to climate change and laid out specific requirements for their environmental impact assessments.

It also said states' targets for cutting greenhouse emissions must be set objectively based on the best available science and relevant international rules and standards, thus setting the bar higher than the Paris Agreement did.

Ruling could shape future climate cases

Climate activists and lawyers said the decision could influence two opinions on states' climate obligations that are pending from the Inter-American Court on Human Rights and the International Court of Justice.

A similar potential precedent was laid down last month, when the European Court of Human Rights agreed with plaintiffs who argued that Switzerland was violating their human rights by not doing enough to combat climate warming.

Eselealofa Apinelu, representing the South Pacific island of Tuvalu, said Tuesday's opinion made clear that all states were legally bound to protect the marine environment, and other states, from the existential threats of climate change.

He called it "an important first step in holding the major polluters accountable."

But the road to concerted global action is far from smooth.

Scientists warn of 'dangerous future' if global emissions aren't cut

China, the world's biggest carbon polluter, had argued in court that the Tribunal did not have general authority to issue advisory opinions, saying these could fragment international law. China's Foreign Ministry was not immediately available for comment.

The other nations in the group that brought the case were Palau, Niue, Vanuatu, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Kitts and Nevis.

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Journal of Materials Chemistry A

Recent advancements in radiative cooling textiles for personal thermal management.

To meet the increasing need for outdoor personal thermal management (PTM) since the intensified global warming, radiative cooling (RC) textiles with tunable solar reflectivity and mid-infrared emissivity/transmissivity attributes can dynamically adjust the microenvironment of the human body to provide a cooling effect without consumption of electrical energy, in contrast to the traditional heat preservation function of the commercial clothes. In this review, we summarize recent advances in RC textiles from basic mechanisms, construction methods to emerging applications. The underlying mechanisms of optical absorption/reflection and heat emission properties and typical efficient structures are first discussed to comprehend the principles of RC technique. The corresponding construction strategies of modifying textile materials and structures for improved passive cooling performance are then highlighted. The various applications of RC textiles are also reviewed to demonstrate their practicability and versatility, such as smart clothing, object cooling, enhanced electricity generation, etc. Eventually, we give a brief outlook on the current challenges and future development of RC textiles. This review intends to provide a better understanding of RC techniques for functional textile design and fabrication.

This article is part of the themed collection: Journal of Materials Chemistry A Recent Review Articles

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S. Jiang, K. Zhang, C. Wang, Q. Li, L. Zhu and S. Chen, J. Mater. Chem. A , 2024, Accepted Manuscript , DOI: 10.1039/D4TA01734J

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Birding: Does global warming cause migratory birds to arrive earlier in the spring?

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The pine warbler is among the species with the most extreme changes in arrival date, with other short-distance migrants like the tree swallow, and species undergoing significant population growth, like the turkey vulture and red-eyed vireo. Joe Songer/al.com/TNS

The glorious spring migration is coming to an end. The arrival of black-billed cuckoos, Nelson’s sparrows, saltmarsh sparrows and blackpoll warblers will be the last trickle of the river of migrants.

We know that average temperatures have been steadily rising since the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1850. The warming leads to springs with earlier appearances of leaves, caterpillars, frogs calling, and hundreds of other biological phenomena. One would expect that migratory birds accelerate their arrivals onto their breeding grounds to keep pace with the changing ecology.

Over the past 20 years, several studies have appeared that used archival bird records over decades to see if arrival dates are getting earlier. Analysis of records from New York and Massachusetts showed significantly earlier arrivals for most migratory breeding birds. Similar data for Maine show relatively few examples of accelerated arrival dates.

A recent study headed by Lori Petranski of West Virginia University presents data on arrival dates in the Central Appalachians for 115 species using several sources of crowd-sourced data. The study is particularly notable because of its scope, with the authors presenting data for 127 years, although they do not have continuous data over that time. When using archival data, one must be satisfied with whatever data are available.

Forty-five of the 115 species showed significantly earlier arrival dates over the 127-year period. The advances were striking: 2.6 days per decade for those 45 species. Species with the most extreme changes in arrival date were short-distance migrants like the pine warbler and the tree swallow, and species undergoing significant population growth, like the turkey vulture and red-eyed vireo.

An English study led by Jennifer Gill of the University of East Anglia focused on arrival dates of a shorebird, the black-tailed godwit. At the population level, the godwits are arriving earlier. However, older, color-banded birds continue to arrive at the same time each year. Young birds are the ones arriving earlier. It will be interesting to see if songbirds show this same pattern. Advertisement

Another consequence of global warming is that the optimal temperature for different species may force the population to shift northward. It may behoove migratory birds to extend their migration northward, particularly at the southern end of the range of a species to avoid temperatures that are too warm.

Paulo Martin and colleagues from the Catholic University in Chile analyzed changes in the optimal latitude for 209 species of North American birds over the last 55 years. Seventy species showed a shift in their optimal latitude. Overall, the peak density of birds has shifted northward about 50 miles over the course of the study.

Despite an abundance of research, we still do not understand how many young birds know their migratory routes and destination. Research by Patrik Byholm and colleagues in Finland focused on the learning of migratory pathways by Caspian terns. They placed GPS-trackers on 31 related birds to track the migration between breeding grounds in northern Europe and wintering grounds in Africa.

Adult males have the main responsibility for migrating with young. Young birds always stayed close to an adult male, with the bond dissipating on the wintering grounds. Adults migrating alone were faster than those accompanying young. Four young birds that were separated from the adults all died.

In the spring, all the young birds followed the route in reverse in solo flights to attempt breeding in the area where they were born.

Shorebirds abandon their chicks soon after hatching and begin their migration weeks ahead of their self-sufficient chicks. The young have no guide for their first migration, so the direction and distance must be genetically coded. Songbirds do not migrate as families, either, so genetics must be involved in getting young birds to their wintering areas. This phenomenon is a rich subject for future research.

Herb Wilson taught ornithology and other biology courses at Colby College. He welcomes reader comments and questions at [email protected]

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A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

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Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013)

1. Introduction

1.1. Climate Change Science, Risk and the 2015 Paris Agreement

1.2. Interaction, Attribution, and Causation

1.3. Integrative Risk and the Sustainability of Civilization

1.4. Hypothesis

inclusion and exclusion criteria.

3.1. Citations

3.2. Coverage of Topics

3.3. The Leadership Role of Some Journals

3.4. Papers for the Period 2014–2017

4. Discussion

4.1. Selection and Other Forms of Bias

4.2. Reasons for the Apparent Conservatism of the Literature

5. Conclusions

Acknowledgments

Supplementary Materials

Appendix A.1. Detailed Methods and Results

Appendix A.2. Further Scoring Details

Appendix A.3. Sources (Detailed)

Appendix A.4. Score, Citation and Journal Details

Appendix A.5. Additional Papers 2014–2018