research about global warming in the philippines

• Daily Weather Forecast
• Weather Outlook Selected Philippine Cities
• Philippine Cities Weather Forecast
• Asian Cities Weather Forecast
• Weather Outlook Selected Tourist Areas
• Weekly Weather Outlook
• Weather Advisory
• Airways and Terminal Forecast
• Terminal Aerodome Forecast
• High Seas Forecast
• Gale Warning
• Daily Temperature
• Flood Information
• Dam Information
• Tropical Cyclone Advisory --> Tropical Cyclone Advisory Active -->
• Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Tropical Cyclone Bulletin -->
• Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping -->
• Forecast Storm Surge
• Tropical Cyclone Warning for Agriculture
• TC-Threat Potential Forecast
• Tropical Cyclone Associated Rainfall
• Annual Report on Philippine Tropical Cyclones
• Tropical Cyclone Preliminary Report
• About Tropical Cyclone
• Daily Rainfall and Temperature
• Monthly Monitoring Products
• Southeast Asia Climate Monitoring
• Climate Forum
• 10 Day Climate Forecast
• Sub Seasonal
• Seasonal Forecast
• Specialized Forecast
• Climate Advisories
• CliMap v2.0
• Statistical Downscaling
• Climate Data
• Farm Weather Forecast
• Weekend/Special Farm Weather Forecast
• Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information
• Monthly Philippine Agro-Climatic Review and Outlook
• Impact Assessment for Agriculture
• Telescoping and Stargazing
• Astronomy in the Philippines
• Planetarium
• Astronomical Observatory
• Time Service
• Philippine Standard Time
• Astronomical Diary
• Northern Luzon
• National Capital Region
• Southern Luzon

Introduction

Climate change is happening now. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system since the mid-20th century is most likely to be due to human activities; and thus, is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change. Current warming has increasingly posed quite considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. Presently, some autonomous adaptation is taking place, but we need to consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development.

What does it take to ensure that adaptation planning has a scientific basis? Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. This is what climate scientists call a climate change scenario. It is a projection of the response of the climate system to future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and is simulated using climate models. Essentially, it describes possible future changes in climate variables (such as temperatures, rainfall, storminess, winds, etc.) based on baseline climatic conditions.

The climate change scenarios outputs (projections) are an important step forward in improving our understanding of our complex climate, particularly in the future. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Change Scenarios

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models (UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as GCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers wide. It should be noted that GCMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid. Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These emission scenarios cover a range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways. Table 1 presents the four different storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) as defined in the IPCC SRES.

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the future climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its plausible ranges.

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others. These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in models.

For the climate change scenarios in the Philippines presented in this Report, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are limited. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission scenario).

The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. On the other hand, the mid-range emission scenario indicates a future world of very rapid economic growth, with the global population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter and there is rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies with energy generation balanced across all sources. The low-range emission scenario, in contrast, indicates a world with local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing global population, but at a rate lower than of the high-range, intermediate levels of economic development, less rapid and more diverse technological change but oriented towards environment protection and social equity.

To start the climate simulations or model runs, outputs (climate information) from the relatively coarse resolution GCMs are used to provide high resolution (using finer grid boxes, normally 10km-100km) climate details, through the use of downscaling techniques. Downscaling is a method that derives local to regional scale (10km-100km x 10km-100km grids) information from larger-scale models (150km-300km x 150km-300km grids) as shown in Fig.1. The smaller the grid, the finer is the resolution giving more detailed climate information.

The climate simulations presented in this report used boundary data that were from the ECHAM4 and HadCM3Q0 (the regional climate models used in the PRECIS model software).

How were the downscaling techniques applied using the PRECIS model?

To run regional climate models, boundary conditions are needed in order to produce local climate scenarios. These boundary conditions are outputs of the GCMs. For the PRECIS model, the following boundary data and control runs were used:

For the high-range scenario, the GCM boundary data used was from ECHAM4. This is the 4th generation coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which uses a comprehensive parameterization package developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. Downscaling was to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km; thus, allowing more detailed regional information of the projected climate. Simulated baseline climate used for evaluation of the models capacity of reproducing present climate was the 1971-2000 model run. Its outputs were compared with the 1971-2000 observed values.

For the mid-range scenario, the GCM boundary data was from the HadCM3Q0 version 3 of the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre. Downscaling was also to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km and the same validation process was undertaken.

For running the low-range scenario, the same ECHAM4 model was used. However, the validation process was only for the period of 1989 to 2000 because the available GCM boundary data in the model was limited to this period.

The simulations for all 3 scenarios were for three periods; 1971 to 2000, 2020 and 2050. The period 1971 to 2000 simulation is referred to as the baseline climate, outputs of which are used to evaluate the models capacity of reproducing present climate (in other words, the control run). By comparing the outputs (i.e., temperature and rainfall) with the observed values for the 1971 to 2000 period, the models ability to realistically represent the regional climatological features within the country is verified. The differences between the outputs and the observed values are called the biases of the model. The 2020 and 2050 outputs are then mathematically corrected, based on the comparison of the models performance.

The main outputs of the simulations for the three SRES scenarios (high-range, mid-range and low-range) are the following:

• projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature
• projected changes in minimum and maximum temperatures
• projected changes in seasonal rainfall and
• projected frequency of extreme events

The seasonal variations are as follows:

• the DJF (December, January, February or northeast monsoon locally known as amihan) season
• the MAM (March, April, May or summer) season
• the JJA (June, July, August or southwest monsoon season, or habagat) season and
• the SON (September, October, November or transition from southwest to northeast monsoon) season

On the other hand, extreme events are defined as follows:

• extreme temperature (assessed as number of days with maximum temperature greater than 35°C, following the threshold values used in other countries in the Asia Pacific region)
• dry days (assessed as number of dry days or day with rainfall equal or less than 2.5mm/day, following the World Meteorological Organization standard definition of dry days used in a number of countries) and
• extreme rainfall (assessed as number of days with daily rainfall greater than 300mm, which for wet tropical areas, like the Philippines, is considerably intense that could trigger disastrous events).

How were the uncertainties in the modeling simulations dealt with?

Modeling of our future climate always entails uncertainties. These are inherent in each step in the simulations/modeling done because of a number of reasons. Firstly, emissions scenarios are uncertain. Predicting emissions is largely dependent on how we can predict human behavior, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies (which include predicting results of the international negotiations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Secondly, current understanding of the carbon cycle and of sources and sinks of non-carbon greenhouse gases are still incomplete. Thirdly, consideration of very complex feedback processes in the climate system in the climate models used can also contribute to the uncertainties in the outputs generated as these could not be adequately represented in the models.

But while it is difficult to predict global greenhouse gas emission rates far into the future, it is stressed that projections for up to 2050 show little variation between different emission scenarios, as these near-term changes in climate are strongly affected by greenhouse gases that have already been emitted and will stay in the atmosphere for the next 50 years. Hence, for projections for the near-term until 2065, outputs of the mid-range emission scenario are presented in detail in this Report.

Ideally, numerous climate models and a number of the emission scenarios provided in the SRES should be used in developing the climate change scenarios in order to account for the limitations in each of the models used, and the numerous ways global greenhouse gas emissions would go. The different model outputs should then be analyzed to calculate the median of the future climate projections in the selected time slices. By running more climate models for each emission scenarios, the higher is the statistical confidence in the resulting projections as these constitute the ensemble representing the median values of the model outputs.

The climate projections for the three emission scenarios were obtained using the PRECIS model only due to several constraints and limitations. These constraints and limitations are:

Access to climate models: at the start, PAGASA had not accessed climate models due to computing and technical capacity requirements needed to run them;

Time constraints: the use of currently available computers required substantial computing time to run the models (measured in weeks and months). This had been partly addressed under the capacity upgrading initiatives being implemented by the MDGF Joint Programme which include procurement of more powerful computers and acquiring new downscaling techniques. Improved equipment and new techniques have reduced the computing time requirements to run the models. However, additional time is still needed to run the models using newly acquired downscaling techniques; and

The PAGASA strives to improve confidence in the climate projections and is continuously exerting efforts to upgrade its technical capacities and capabilities. Models are run as soon as these are acquired with the end-goal of producing an ensemble of the projections. Updates on the projections, including comparisons with the current results, will be provided as soon as these are available.

What is the level of confidence in the climate projections?

The IPCC stresses that there is a large degree of uncertainty in predicting what the future world will be despite taking into account all reasonable future developments. Nevertheless, there is high confidence in the occurrence of global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by humans, as affirmed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Global climate simulations done to project climate scenarios until the end of the 21st century indicate that, although there are vast differences between the various scenarios, the values of temperature increase begin to diverge only after the middle of this century (shown in Fig.3). The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases (in particular, that of carbon dioxide) already in the atmosphere is the reason for this behavior of this climate response to largely varying emission scenarios.

Model outputs that represent the plausible local climate scenarios in this Report are indicative to the extent that they reflect the large-scale changes (in the regional climate model used) modified by the projected local conditions in the country.

It also should be stressed further that confidence in the climate change information depends on the variable being considered (e.g., temperature increase, rainfall change, extreme event indices, etc.). In all the model runs regardless of emission scenarios used, there is greater confidence in the projections of mean temperature than that of the others. On the other hand, projections of rainfall and extreme events entail consideration of convective processes which are inherently complex, and thus, limiting the degree of confidence in the outputs.

What are the possible applications of these model-generated climate scenarios?

Climate scenarios are commonly required in climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments to provide alternative views of future conditions considered likely to affect society, systems and sectors, including a quantification of climate risks, challenges and opportunities. climate scenario outputs could be used in any of the following:.

• to illustrate projected climate change in a given administrative region/province
• to provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies
• to communicate potential consequences of climate change (e.g., specifying a future changed climate to estimate potential shifts in say, vegetation, species threatened or at risk of extinction, etc.) and
• for strategic planning (e.g., quantifying projected sea level rise and other climate changes for the design of coastal infrastructure/defenses such as sea walls, etc.)

Current Climate and Observed Trends

Current climate change in the philippines.

The world has increasingly been concerned with the changes in our climate due largely to adverse impacts being seen not just globally, but also in regional, national and even, local scales. In 1988, the United Nations established the IPCC to evaluate the risks of climate change and provide objective information to governments and various communities such as the academe, research organizations, private sector, etc. The IPCC has successively done and published its scientific assessment reports on climate change, the first of which was released in 1990. These reports constitute consensus documents produced by numerous lead authors, contributing authors and review experts representing Country Parties of the UNFCCC, including invited eminent scientists in the field from all over the globe.

In 2007, the IPCC made its strongest statement yet on climate change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), when it concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the warming during the last 50 years or so (e.g., since the mid-20th century) is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. It is also very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue into the future, and that these will be larger than those seen in our recent past (IPCC, 2007a).

Fig.4 shows the 0.74 C increase in global mean temperature during the last 150 years compared with the 1961-1990 global average. It is the steep increase in temperature since the mid-20th century that is causing worldwide concern, particularly in terms of increasing vulnerability of poor developing countries, like the Philippines, to adverse impacts of even incremental changes in temperatures.

The IPCC AR4 further states that the substantial body of evidence that support this most recent warming includes rising surface temperature, sea level rise and decrease in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere (shown in Fig.5).

Additionally, there have been changes in extreme events globally and these include;

• widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed;
• cold days, cold nights and frost becoming less frequent;
• hot days, hot nights and heat waves becoming more frequent; and
• observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

However, there are differences between and within regions. For instance, in the Southeast Asia region which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed; although magnitude varies from one country to another. Changes in rainfall patterns, characteristically defined by changes in monsoon performance, have also been noted. Analysis of trends of extreme daily events (temperatures and rainfall) in the Asia Pacific region (including Australia and New Zealand, and parts of China and Japan) also indicate spatial coherence in the increase of hot days, warm nights and heat waves, and the decrease of cold days, cold nights and frost; although, there is no definite direction of rainfall change across the entire region (Manton et. al., 2001).

Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

The Philippines, like most parts of the globe, has also exhibited increasing temperatures as shown in Fig.6 below. The graph of observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of 0.648 C or an average of 0.0108 C per year-increase.

The increase in maximum (or daytime) temperatures and minimum (or night time) temperatures are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8. During the last 60 years, maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively.

Analysis of trends of tropical cyclone occurrence or passage within the so-called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year. The trend shows a high variability over the decades but there is no indication of increase in the frequency. However, there is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El NiÑo event (See Fig.10).

Moreover, the analysis on tropical cyclone passage over the three main islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), the 30-year running means show that there has been a slight increase in the Visayas during the 1971 to 2000 as compared with the 1951 to 1980 and 1960-1990 periods (See Fig.11).

To detect trends in extreme daily events, indices had been developed and used. Analysis of extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (hot-days index and cold-nights index, respectively) show there are statistically significant increasing number of hot days but decreasing number of cool nights (as shown in Fig.12 and Fig.13). 

However, the trends of increases or decreases in extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant; although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically significant (see in Fig.14). Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, also, not statistically significant (as shown in Fig.15).

The rates of increases or decreases in the trends are point values (i.e., specific values in the synoptic weather stations only) and are available at PAGASA, if needed.

Climate Projections

Projections on seasonal temperature increase and rainfall change, and total frequency of extreme events nationally and in the provinces using the mid-range scenario outputs are presented in this chapter. A comparison of these values with the high- and low- range scenarios in 2020 and 2050 is provided in the technical annexes.

It is to be noted that all the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000) climate. For example, a projected 1.0 C-increase in 2020 in a province means that 1.0 C is added to the baseline mean temperature value of the province as indicated in the table to arrive at the value of projected mean temperature. Therefore, if the baseline mean temperature is 27.8 C, then the projected mean temperature in the future is (27.8 C + 1.0 C) or 28.8 C.

In a similar manner, for say, a +25%-rainfall change in a province, it means that 25% of the seasonal mean rainfall value in the said province (from table of baseline climate) is added to the mean value. Thus, if the baseline seasonal rainfall is 900mm, then projected rainfall in the future is 900mm + 225mm or 1125mm.

This means that we are already experiencing some of the climate change shown in the findings under the mid-range scenario, as we are now into the second decade of the century. Classification of climate used the Corona's four climate types (Types I to IV), based on monthly rainfall received during the year. A province is considered to have Type I climate if there is a distinct dry and a wet season; wet from June to November and dry, the rest of the year. Type II climate is when there is no dry period at all throughout the year, with a pronounced wet season from November to February. On the other hand, Type III climate is when there is a short dry season, usually from February to April, and Type IV climate is when the rainfall is almost evenly distributed during the whole year. The climate classification in the Philippines is shown in Fig.16.

Seasonal Temperature Change

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months. Mean temperatures in all areas in the Philippines are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050. Likewise, all seasonal mean temperatures will also have increases in these time slices; and these increases during the four seasons are quite consistent in all parts of the country. Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season.

Seasonal Rainfall Change

Generally, there is reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country during the summer (MAM) season. However, rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON) season in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, and also, during the northeast monsoon (DJF) season, particularly, in provinces/areas characterized as Type II climate in 2020 and 2050. There is however, generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.

There are varied trends in the magnitude and direction of the rainfall changes, both in 2020 and 2050. What the projections clearly indicate are the likely increase in the performance of the southwest and the northeast monsoons in the provinces exposed to these climate controls when they prevail over the country. Moreover, the usually wet seasons become wetter with the usually dry seasons becoming also drier; and these could lead to more occurrences of floods and dry spells/droughts, respectively.

Extreme Temperature Events

Hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent in the future. Fig.19 shows that the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C (following value used by other countries in the Asia Pacific region in extreme events analysis) is increasing in 2020 and 2050.

Extreme Rainfall Events

Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only, but number of dry days is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050. Figures 20 and 21 show the projected increase in number of dry days (with dry day defined as that with rainfall less than 2.5mm) and the increase in number of days with extreme rainfall (defined as daily rainfall exceeding 300 mm) compared with the observed (baseline) values, respectively.

Climate Projections for Provinces

Impacts of climate change.

Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. Its adverse impacts are already being seen and may intensify exponentially over time if nothing is done to reduce further emissions of greenhouse gases. Decisively dealing NOW with climate change is key to ensuring sustainable development, poverty eradication and safeguarding economic growth. Scientific assessments indicate that the cost of inaction now will be more costly in the future. Thus, economic development needs to be shifted to a low-carbon emission path.

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the problem. The Philippines signed the UNFCCC on 12 June 1992 and ratified the international treaty on 2 August 1994. Presently, the Convention enjoys near-universal membership, with 194 Country Parties.

Recognizing that the climate system is a shared resource which is greatly affected by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the UNFCCC has set out an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. Its ultimate objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Countries are actively discussing and negotiating ways to deal with the climate change problem within the UNFCCC using two central approaches. The first task is to address the root cause by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. The means to achieve this are very contentious, as it will require radical changes in the way many societies are organized, especially in respect to fossil fuel use, industry operations, land use, and development. Within the climate change arena, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is called mitigation.

The second task in responding to climate change is to manage its impacts. Future impacts on the environment and society are now inevitable, owing to the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere from past decades of industrial and other human activities, and to the added amounts from continued emissions over the next few decades until such time as mitigation policies and actions become effective. We are therefore committed to changes in the climate. Taking steps to cope with the changed climate conditions both in terms of reducing adverse impacts and taking advantage of potential benefits is called adaptation.

What if the emissions are less or greater?

Responses of the local climate to the mid-range compared to the high- and low-range scenarios are as shown in Fig. 22 below. Although there are vast differences in the projections, the so-called temperature anomalies or difference in surface temperature increase begin to diverge only in the middle of the 21st century. As has already been stated, the climate in the next 30 to 40 years is greatly influenced by past greenhouse gas emissions. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, with the exception of methane (with a lifetime of only 13 years), will mean that it will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize even if mitigation measures are put in place, not withstanding that in the near future, there could be some off-setting between sulfate aerosols (cooling effect) and the greenhouse gas concentrations (warming effect).

Likely impacts of Climate Change

A warmer world is certain to impact on systems and sectors; although, magnitude of impacts will depend on factors such as sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risks. In most cases, likely impacts will be adverse. However, there could be instances when likely impacts present opportunities for potential benefits as in the case of the so-called carbon fertilization effect in which increased carbon dioxide could lead to increased yield provided temperatures do not exceed threshold values for a given crop/cultivar.

Water Resources

In areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress (both in quantity and quality), which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts, particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement. Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount of water in watersheds and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers, especially those in rain fed areas, thereby, limiting agricultural production. Likewise, energy production from dams could also be rendered insufficient in those areas where rainfall is projected to decrease, and thus, could largely affect the energy sufficiency program of the country. Design of infrastructure, particularly of dams, will need to be re-visited to ensure that these will not be severely affected by the projected longer drier periods.

In areas where rainfall could be intense during wet periods, flooding events would follow and may pose danger to human settlements and infrastructure, in terms of landslides and mudslides, most especially, in geologically weak areas. Additionally, these flooding events could impact severely on public infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, including classrooms, evacuation centers, and hospitals.

Adaptive capacity is enhanced when impact and vulnerability assessments are used as the basis of strategic and long-term planning for adaptation. Assessments would indicate areas where critical water shortages can be expected leading to possible reduction of water available for domestic consumption, less irrigation service delivery, and possibly, decreased energy generation in dams. Note that the adverse impacts would cascade, so that long-term pro-active planning for these possible impacts is imperative in order to be able to respond effectively, and avoid maladaptations. A number of adaptation strategies should be considered. Among the wide array of cost effective options are rational water management, planning to avoid mismatch between water supply and demand through policies, upgrading/rehabilitation of dams where these are cost-effective, changes in cropping patterns in agricultural areas, establishing rain water collection facilities, where possible, and early warning systems.

Changes in rainfall regimes and patterns resulting to increase/decrease in water use and temperature increases could lead to a change in the forests ecosystem, particularly in areas where the rains are severely limited, and can no longer provide favorable conditions for certain highly sensitive species. Some of our forests could face die-backs. Additionally, drier periods and warmer temperatures, especially during the warm phase of El Nino events, could cause forest fires. A very likely threat to communities that largely depend on the ecological services provided by forests is that they may face the need to alter their traditions and livelihoods. This change in practices and behavior can lead to further degradation of the environment as they resort to more extensive agricultural production in already degraded areas.

Adverse impacts on forestry areas and resources could be expected to multiply in a future warmer world. The value of impact and vulnerability assessments could not be underscored. These assessments would help decision makers and stakeholders identify the best option to address the different impacts on forest areas, watersheds and agroforestry. Indigenous communities have to plan for climate-resilient alternative livelihoods. Thus, it is highly important to plan for rational forest management, particularly, in protected areas and in ancestral domains. One of the more important issues to consider is how to safeguard livelihoods in affected communities so as not to further exacerbate land degradation. Early warning systems in this sector will play a very important role in forest protection through avoidance and control/containment of forest fires.

Agriculture

Agriculture in the country could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns. Crops have been shown to suffer decreases in yields whenever temperatures have exceeded threshold values and possibly result to spikelet sterility, as in the case of rice. The reduction in crop yield would remain unmitigated or even aggravated if management technologies are not put in place. Additionally, in areas where rain patterns change or when extreme events such as floods or droughts happen more often, grain and other agricultural produce could suffer shortfalls in the absence of effective and timely interventions. Tropical cyclones, particularly if there will be an increase in numbers and/or strength will continue to exert pressure on agricultural production.

Moreover, temperature increases coupled with rainfall changes could affect the incidence/outbreaks of pests and diseases, both in plants and animals. The pathways through which diseases and pests could be triggered and rendered most favorable to spread are still largely unknown. It is therefore important that research focus on these issues.

In the fisheries sub-sector, migration of fish to cooler and deeper waters would force the fisher folks to travel further from the coasts in order to increase their catch. Seaweed production, already being practiced as an adaptation to climate change in a number of poor and depressed coastal communities could also be impacted adversely.

Decreased yields and inadequate job opportunities in the agricultural sector could lead to migration and shifts in population, resulting to more pressure in already depressed urban areas, particularly in mega cities. Food security will largely be affected, especially if timely, effective and efficient interventions are not put in place. Insufficient food supply could further lead to more malnutrition, higher poverty levels, and possibly, heightened social unrest and conflict in certain areas in the country, and even among the indigenous tribes.

A careful assessment of primary and secondary impacts in this sector, particularly, in production systems and livelihoods will go a long way in avoiding food security and livelihood issues. Proactive planning (short- and long-term adaptation measures) will help in attaining poverty eradication, sufficient nutrition and secure livelihoods goals. There is a wide cross-section of adaptation strategies that could be put in place, such as horizontal and vertical diversification of crops, farmer field schools which incorporate use of weather/climate information in agricultural operations, including policy environment for subsidies and climate-friendly agricultural technologies, weather-based insurance, and others. To date, there has not been much R&D that has been done on inland and marine fisheries technologies, a research agenda on resilient marine sector could form part of long-term planning for this subsector.

Coastal Resources

The countrys coastal resources are highly vulnerable due to its extensive coastlines. Sea level rise is highly likely in a changing climate, and low-lying islands will face permanent inundation in the future. The combined effects of continued temperature increases, changes in rainfall and accelerated sea level rise, and tropical cyclone occurrences including the associated storm surges would expose coastal communities to higher levels of threat to life and property. The livelihood of these communities would also be threatened in terms of further stress to their fishing opportunities, loss of productive agricultural lands and saltwater intrusion, among others.

Impact and vulnerability assessment as well as adaptation planning for these coastal areas are of high priority. Adaptation measures range from physical structures such as sea walls where they still are cost-effective, to development/revision of land use plans using risk maps as the basis, to early warning systems for severe weather, including advisories on storm surge probabilities, as well as planning for and developing resilient livelihoods where traditional fishing/ agriculture are no longer viable.

Human health is one of the most vital sectors which will be severely affected by climate change. Incremental increases in temperatures and rain regimes could trigger a number of adverse impacts; in particular, the outbreak and spread of water-based and vector-borne diseases leading to higher morbidity and mortality; increased incidence of pulmonary illnesses among young children and cardiovascular diseases among the elderly. In addition, there could also be increased health risk from poor air quality especially in urbanized areas.

Surveillance systems and infrastructure for monitoring and prevention of epidemics could also be under severe stress when there is a confluence of circumstances. Hospitals and clinics, and evacuation centers and resettlement areas could also be severely affected under increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events.

Moreover, malnutrition is expected to become more severe with more frequent occurrences of extreme events that disrupt food supply and provision of health services. The services of the Department of Health will be severely tested unless early and periodic assessments of plausible impacts of climate change are undertaken.

Scientific assessments have indicated that the Earth is now committed to continued and faster warming unless drastic global mitigation action is put in place the soonest. The likely impacts of climate change are numerous and most could seriously hinder the realization of targets set under the Millennium Development Goals; and thus, sustainable development. Under the UNFCCC, Country Parties have common but differentiated responsibilities. All Country Parties share the common responsibility of protecting the climate system but must shoulder different responsibilities. This means that the developed countries including those whose economies are in transition (or the so-called Annex 1 Parties) have an obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions based on their emissions at 1990 levels and provide assistance to developing countries (or the so-called non-Annex 1 Parties) to adapt to impacts of climate change.

In addition, the commitment to mitigate or reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by countries which share the responsibility of having historically caused this global problem, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol, is dictated by the imperative to avoid what climate scientists refer to as the climate change tipping point. Tipping point is defined as the maximum temperature increase that could happen within the century, which could lead to sudden and dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth. The effects of these changes could be varied from a dramatic rise in sea levels that could flood coastal regions to widespread crop failures. But, it still is possible to avoid them with cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, both in the developed and developing countries, in particular, those which are now fast approaching the emission levels seen in rich countries.

In the Philippines, there are now a number of assisted climate change adaptation programmes and projects that are being implemented. Among these are the Millennium Development Goals Fund 1656: Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change funded by the Government of Spain, the Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (which aims to develop the resiliency and test adaptation strategies that will develop the resiliency of farms and natural resource management to the effects of climate change) funded by the Global Environmental Facility(GEF) through the World Bank, the Adaptation to Climate Change and Conservation of Biodiversity Project and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (envisioned to develop the adaptation capacity of communities), both funded by the GTZ, Germany.

Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting

Affiliations.

• 1 Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc., Rm. 406, Veria I Bldg., 62 West Avenue, Barangay West Triangle, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. [email protected].
• 2 Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8102, Japan. [email protected].
• 3 Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc., Rm. 406, Veria I Bldg., 62 West Avenue, Barangay West Triangle, Quezon City 1104, Philippines.
• 4 Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8102, Japan.
• 5 Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan.
• 6 Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 324, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany.
• PMID: 31340512
• PMCID: PMC6679087
• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16142624

The impacts of climate change on human health have been observed and projected in the Philippines as vector-borne and heat-related diseases have and continue to increase. As a response, the Philippine government has given priority to climate change and health as one of the main research funding topics. To guide in identifying more specific research topics, a scoping review was done to complement the agenda-setting process by mapping out the extent of climate change and health research done in the country. Research articles and grey literature published from 1980 to 2017 were searched from online databases and search engines, and a total of 34 quantitative studies were selected. Fifty-three percent of the health topics studied were about mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue fever. Seventy-nine percent of the studies reported evidence of positive associations between climate factors and health outcomes. Recommended broad research themes for funding were health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. Other notable recommendations were the development of open data and reproducible modeling schemes. In conclusion, the scoping review was useful in providing a background for research agenda-setting; however, additional analyses or consultations should be complementary for added depth.

Keywords: agenda-setting; climate change; health; scoping review.

Publication types

• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
• Climate Change*
• Philippines

Philippines Country Climate and Development Report

Download the Philippines Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR)

Background Papers: Climate Change Institutional Analysis | Water | Agriculture | Energy Transition | Transport |  Macroeconomic Modelling  |  Climate Change and Environmental Risks in the Financial and Private Sector  |  The Distributional Impacts of Climate Change Damage, Adaptation and Mitigation Policies  |  Strengthening Adaptive Social Protection  |  Social Impacts of Climate Change in High-Risk Areas  |  Disaster Risk Management

Climate change poses major risks for development in the Philippines. Climate shocks, whether in the form of extreme weather events or slow-onset trends—will hamper economic activities, damage infrastructure, and induce deep social disruptions. Policy inaction would impose substantial economic and human costs, especially on the poor.

The Philippines Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) comprehensively analyzes how climate change will affect the country's ability to meet its development goals and pursue green, resilient, and inclusive development. The CCDR helps identify opportunities for climate action by both the public and private sectors.

The CCDR shows that climate change poses major risks to development in the Philippines but that the country has many options to address them. If nothing is done, climate change will impose substantial economic and human costs, reducing GDP by as much as 13.6 percent of GDP by 2040, with the poorest households most affected. These effects are likely to vary across and within regions. Adapting to the risks of climate change—including extreme events and slow-onset problems—is critical for the Philippines. It cannot wholly eliminate the costs of climate change, but it can greatly reduce them. Many adaptation responses also contribute to mitigation; conversely, many mitigation measures generate local co-benefits, such as reduced air pollution.

Although the Philippines is a relatively low emitter of Greenhouse gases (GHGs), it can contribute to global mitigation efforts through an energy transition, including a transition away from coal. The investment costs of such adaptation measures and energy transition are substantial but not out of reach. A large part of decarbonizing the power system has a relatively low incremental system cost compared with the Government’s current plan, mainly involving further expanding renewables such as solar, whose cost is declining. Moreover, it could lead to lower electricity prices. The energy transition should be complemented with energy efficiency measures—notably in transport and buildings—and by encouraging compact city development to facilitate mass transit. The private sector drives economic growth and is pivotal in adaptation and mitigation. As such, appropriate incentives must be in place.

The CCDR prioritizes the most urgent development challenges likely to be impacted by climate change in the Philippines. Even among these, the analysis is necessarily brief. Background papers prepared for the CCDR consider a much broader range of issues and examine them in more detail than is possible here.

Chapter 2  examines the challenges climate change poses for development in the Philippines. 

Chapter 3  then assesses the country’s NDCs and its existing climate policies. 

Chapter 4  details the sectors and locations most exposed to climate change, examining the likely impacts on economic activities in these sectors and the people who depend on them. The analysis in this chapter relies on a synthesis of prior work complemented, in several instances, on detailed partial-equilibrium modeling prepared specifically for the CCDR. 

Chapter 5  combines these analytical strands and uses Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to assess the impact of climate shocks and climate policy tradeoffs on growth, inequality, and poverty. 

Chapter 6 summarizes policy recommendations for all key sectors and identifies policy priorities.

Download the full report

Press release

Event: Philippines Country Climate and Development Report launch

The World Bank in the Philippines

The World Bank in East Asia and Pacific

Follow the World Bank on Facebook

Follow the World Bank on Twitter

This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. To learn more about cookies, click here .

Content Search

Philippines

Philippines: Country Climate and Development Report 2022

Attachments.

Stronger Climate Action Will Support Sustainable Recovery and Accelerate Poverty Reduction in the Philippines

MANILA, November 09, 2022 – Climate change is exacting a heavy toll on Filipinos’ lives, properties, and livelihoods, and left unaddressed, could hamper the country’s ambition of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2040. However, the Philippines has many of the tools and instruments required to reduce damages substantially, according to the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for the Philippines, released today.

With 50 percent of its 111 million population living in urban areas, and many cities in coastal areas, the Philippines is vulnerable to sea level rise. Changes due to the variability and intensity of rainfall in the country and increased temperatures will affect food security and the safety of the population.

Multiple indices rank the Philippines as one of the countries most affected by extreme climate events. The country has experienced highly destructive typhoons almost annually for the past 10 years. Annual losses from typhoons have been estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP.

Climate action in the Philippines must address both extreme and slow-onset events. Adaptation and mitigation actions, some of which are already underway in the country, would reduce vulnerability and future losses if fully implemented.

“Climate impacts threaten to significantly lower the country’s GDP and the well-being of Filipinos by 2040. However, policy actions and investments – principally to protect valuable infrastructure from typhoons and to make agriculture more resilient through climate-smart measures -- could reduce these negative climate impacts by two-thirds,” said World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, Manuela V. Ferro.

The private sector has a crucial role to play in accelerating the adoption of green technologies and ramping up climate finance by working with local financial institutions and regulators.

“ The investments needed to undertake these actions are substantial, but not out of reach, ” said IFC Acting Vice President for Asia and the Pacific, John Gandolfo . “ The business leaders and bankers who embrace climate as a business opportunity and offer these low-carbon technologies, goods and services will be the front runners of our future. ”

The report also undertakes an in-depth analysis of challenges and opportunities for climate-related actions in agriculture, water, energy, and transport. Among the recommendations are:

• Avoiding new construction in flood-prone areas.
• Improving water storage to reduce the risk of damaging floods and droughts. This will also increase water availability.
• Extending irrigation in rainfed areas and promoting climate-smart agriculture practices such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD).
• Making social protection programs adaptive and scalable to respond to climate shocks.
• Removing obstacles that private actors face in scaling investments in renewable energy.
• Ensuring new buildings are energy efficient and climate resilient.

Many climate actions will make the Philippines more resilient while also contributing to mitigating climate change.

“The Philippines would benefit from an energy transition towards more renewable energy. Accelerated decarbonization would reduce electricity costs by about 20 percent below current levels which is good for the country’s competitiveness and would also dramatically reduce air pollution,” said Ferro.

Even with vigorous adaptation efforts, climate change will affect many people. Some climate actions may also have adverse effects on particular groups, such as workers displaced by the move away from high-emission activities. The report recommends that the existing social protection system in the country be strengthened and scaled up to provide support to affected sectors and groups.

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports : The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

• 10 Things You Should Know About the World Bank Group’s First Batch of Country Climate and Development Reports
• CCDR Video link

PRESS RELEASE NO: 2023/025/EAP

In Washington: Kym Smithies [email protected]

In Manila: David Llorito [email protected]

Related Content

Philippines typhoon haiyan response - appeal phl131 revision 1, humanitarian implementation plan (hip) philippines (echo/phl/bud/2013/91000) last update: 17/12/2013 version 4, act alliance appeal: typhoon haiyan response - phl131, typhoons ondoy and pepeng: post-disaster needs assessment.

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List
• Springer Nature - PMC COVID-19 Collection

Critical problems associated with climate change: a systematic review and meta-analysis of Philippine fisheries research

Jen-ming liu.

1 Department of Fisheries Production and Management, College of Hydrosphere Science, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Elaine Quinatana Borazon

2 International Graduate Program of Education and Human Development, College of Social Sciences, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

3 PhD Program of Aquatic Science and Technology, College of Hydrosphere Science, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Kyrie Eleison Muñoz

4 National Kaohsiung University of Hospitality and Tourism, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Associated Data

Not applicable

This paper proposes to analyze the scientific production on climate change and fisheries in the Philippine context. This research theme was chosen considering the continuous increase in scientific studies related to climate change and fisheries and will therefore help in directing researchers on future directions for research to aid in addressing critical issues in the Philippine fisheries. A total of 69 search articles were extracted using the set criteria, indexed in Web of Science, and Scopus, covering the period from 1960 to 2020. After careful screening for eligibility, twenty-seven full-text articles were chosen for qualitative synthesis. Among the literature reviewed, research foci were categorized into four: impacts assessment (56% or 15 studies) followed by management (22% or 6 studies), adaptation (15% or 4 studies), and perception (7% or 2 studies), and main themes were categorized into four: resource management (59%), economy and livelihood (19%), governance and stakeholder participation (11%), and community marginalization (11%). This review contributes to the literature by identifying research potentials and suggesting a prescriptive approach to Philippine fisheries and climate change studies.

Introduction

Climate change brought a more significant impact on the earth’s ecosystem and in human communities (Wang et al. 2018 ). Countries in the Asia-Pacific region are comparatively susceptible than their Western counterparts in terms of periodic and stern disasters brought about by climate change (Seidler et al. 2018 ). In fact, climate change is seen to affect the fisheries sector of highly fish-dependent yet vulnerable countries such as the Philippines in terms of food production, security, and livelihood (Ding et al. 2017 ). The country’s fishing sector is severely affected by the effects of climate change and is susceptible to hazards observed in the entire Southeast Asian (SEA) region (Gopal and Anbumozhi 2019 ). According to the same authors, the danger to food security is a mix of factors including climate and geography which are the warming up and rising of seawater, presence of waste and acid in the ocean, and the changes in rainfall and typhoons. This has been observed in the Philippines with the frequent and intensive weather extremes (Andriesse 2018 ). Accordingly, the study by Suh and Pomeroy ( 2020b ) has revealed that the effect of climate change on Philippine marine capture fisheries is projected to result in a decrease in fisheries GDP by 9% and 18% under mitigation and extreme scenarios, respectively. These effects may also lead to a reduction in household income by 0.36% and 0.38% for urban and rural households, respectively. Global warming has also triggered coral reef bleaching, and the hotspot analysis done by Goreau and Hayes ( 2021 ) predicted mass coral bleaching in Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan, China, Guam, the entire Caribbean Sea, Great Barrier Reef, Palau, India, and the Philippines. A recent assessment of 206 fringing reefs in the country reveals that a third of their hard-coral cover is damaged, and none is in excellent condition (Licuanan 2020 ). At the global scale, climate change is likely to lead to a decrease in marine primary production (Food and Agriculture Organization 2018 ), specifically from coastal fisheries (Dey et al. 2016 ) and in South and Southeast Asia (Barange et al. 2014 ). According to Food and Agriculture Organization ( 2018 ), the total maximum catch potential at the world’s exclusive economic zones (EEZs) is also projected to decrease by 2.6–12.1% by 2050 relative to the year 2000. Similarly, fish processing and trading will be affected through challenges in processing techniques, flooding of roads, and reduced transport, including people migration and livelihood diversification.

Environmental pollution and degradation have also led to the loss of aquatic habitat, thereby affecting the fishing livelihood in the region (Pomeroy et al. 2016 ). Land-based emissions, such as atmospheric pollutants due to increasing urbanization, human settlements, and tourism, are major contributors to marine pollution (Williams 1996 ), and these have economic repercussions. Marine litter, for example, is shown to have an annual economic cost of $3300–$33,000 per ton of marine plastic (Beaumont et al. 2019 ). Moreover, according to Bergland et al. ( 2019 ), pollution density is likely to negatively affect fishery due to a decrease in biological growth potential in the ocean leading to an impact on inland fish biomass (Allan et al. 2005 ). Additionally, global warming (as may be affected by environmental pollution) negatively affects coral reef ecosystems (Goreau and Hayes 2021 ). As a response, there has been a global consensus to provide solutions on the impacts and threats of climate change in the fisheries sector by developing policies and programs on mitigation and adaptation strategies emphasizing on vulnerability, sustainability, and resilience (Miao 2018 ). The views of Blasiak et al. ( 2017 ) corroborate this claim by pointing out that impacts on fishing brought about by climate change can be reduced by minimizing vulnerability. In the same light, the sustainability of fishery supply for consumption remains a threat alongside climate change (Tran et al. 2017 ). This is also an issue for fishing productivity due to overfishing and overexploitation (McIntyre et al. 2016 ). As such, programs such as climate change resiliency, on the other hand, are seen as key in assessing and acting upon the inherent impacts of climate change (Blanchard et al. 2017 ).

The Philippines, as an archipelagic country, has relied on fisheries for food security and economic gains (Palomares and Pauly 2014 ; Santos et al. 2011 ). However, the advent of climate change-induced effects has left the Philippines as one of the most exposed to these consequences (Badjeck et al. 2010 ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2016 ) which is seen to impact food security and the entire economy of the country (Suh and Pomeroy 2020a ). With this, Macusi et al. ( 2015 ) argue that the consequences of climate change be addressed. In response to the importance of the fisheries sector and the growing interest in examining the impacts associated with climate change worldwide, the authors deem it imperative to appraise the current body of knowledge because of the scarce literature on this discourse. Although the inquiry on the impacts of climate change on the fisheries sector has already been instigated by some scholars (Geronimo 2018 ; Santos et al. 2011 ), this study is poised to address the research aim of mapping out what has been done in and what can be explored further by investigating and synthesizing existing literature on the subject contextualized in the Philippine setting. By doing so, this paper contributes by answering the question “How does the current literature interrogate the phenomenon of climate change-induced issues in Philippine fisheries?” By locating the extent of the body of knowledge, this study offers which direction scholars can take in the future as well as recommendations for the private and public sector in addressing critical issues in Philippine fisheries.

Methodology

This paper applies the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) to carry out the systematic literature review employed in this study, as represented in Figure ​ Figure1. 1 . This approach is a published guideline that facilitates a process-orientated flow for researchers to extensively evaluate and engage reviewed resources (Moher et al. 2009 ) and has also been utilized by several researchers (Gong et al. 2021 ; Kamaraj et al. 2021 ; Li et al. 2020 ; Sharma and Oremus 2018 ). The PRISMA approach requires four stages: (1) identification; (2) screening; (3) eligibility assessment; and (4) inclusion. Records are first identified through database searching followed by removal of duplicates or those articles that appear more than once. Screening then follows, which means removing articles that are not relevant to the topic of interest or the research question. Eligibility assessment entails evaluating the remaining articles if these are related to the topic of interest by browsing through the abstract and or content of the articles. The inclusion step is getting the difference between the number of articles excluded and the number of articles that passed the eligibility assessment (Page et al. 2021 ). The researchers deem this as the suited approach in order to produce a strong, transparent, and wide review of related literature that can provide a compelling response to the set research objectives (Mohamed Shaffril et al. 2019 ). A synthesis of previous studies is an important task to advance knowledge (Lima and Bonetti 2020 ). This paper narrowed down with the following terms for the search: “climate change” and “fish” and “Philippines” as its title, keywords, and abstract.

Flow diagram of the study (adapted from Moher et al. ( 2009 ))

The review protocol identified Web of Science ( https://apps.webofknowledge.com/ ) and Scopus ( https://www.scopus.com/sources.uri?zone=TopNavBar&origin=searchbasic ) as the database where the literature to be reviewed will be drawn. These two databases were chosen because of the comprehensiveness and quality included in its portfolio with over 1,400 combined count of journals related to environmental studies. This is in line with common practice in systematic literature reviews which employ two to three databases (Yang et al. 2017 ). For the purpose of this study, only full-text English peer-reviewed journal articles and reviews published from 1960 to 2020 were considered. The authors are interested to see what fishery-climate change-related researches in the Philippines have been done and the emergent themes in the last 60 years. As of 12 December 2020, a total of 69 (41 from WoS and 28 from Scopus) search articles were extracted using the set criteria. Duplicate titles were excluded, while the rest screened further to discard entries not satisfying the criteria set above. The remaining titles were then assessed for eligibility by reviewing the title, abstract, and content. The search concluded with 27 full-text articles eligible for the qualitative synthesis.

A summary of findings was described by reporting the year of publication, journal publication, and methodology used. To identify the research streams and core topics covered and their co-occurrences and get an overview of the evolution of publication, network analysis was used with the aid of VOSViewer (van Eck and Waltman 2010 ). Thematic analysis was used to develop themes, understand concepts, and give meaning to the ideas reflected on each reviewed paper’s main foci, findings, and conclusions.

Results and discussions

Reviewed literature on critical problems in the Philippine fisheries sector associated with climate change has been published more recently with 2020 comprising 19% and 2016 comprising 15% (see Table ​ Table1). 1 ). This reflects two points on the impacts of climate change on the Philippine fisheries: (1) discussion is gaining popularity in the field of research, and 2) literature on this context remains scant and under-researched.

Literature profile by year of publication

From the 27 papers reviewed, 74% or 20 studies have used quantitative methodology, while 15% or 4 studies used qualitative method, while 11% or 3 studies utilized mixed methods. This shows that scholars prefer using a positivist paradigm with some inclination to triangulation in understanding critical issues in the fisheries sector associated with climate change. Table ​ Table2 2 shows the literature profile by methodology. Qualitative research “involves studying the meaning of people’s lives as experienced under real-world conditions” (Yin 2016 ). This includes case studies, ethnography, phenomenology, grounded theory, and discourse analysis, among others. The quantitative methodology focuses on measuring amount or quantity (Kothari 2004 ), while a mixed methodology refers to a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods (Creswell and Plano Clark 2017 ).

Literature profile by methodology

Figure ​ Figure2 2 shows the most frequently used terms in the titles, keywords, and abstracts of studies being reviewed. Three loosely connected clusters are evident, colored in blue, green, and red. Red clusters contained terms related to biomass, marine protected area, and coral cover, while the green cluster contained terms such as community, livelihood, impact, and small-scale fishery. The blue cluster contained terms such as management, reef system, and fishing. This method reveals the frequently co-occurring terms to cluster together and can represent research areas presented in the body text.

Occurrence network map of keywords, titles, and abstracts of studies on climate change and fisheries in the Philippines

Among the literature reviewed using thematic analysis, this paper categorized reviewed studies in four, based on title, keywords, careful analysis of the paper, and frequently used terms: impacts assessment (56% or 15 studies) followed by management (22% or 6 studies), adaptation (15% or 4 studies), and perception (7% or 2 studies), as shown in Table ​ Table3. 3 . These categories were drawn from the thorough analysis of each research’s subjects of investigation.

Categories of literature

Impacts assessment was a recurring theme. Blanchard et al. ( 2017 ) point out the importance of understanding the scope and extent of climate-change-induced impacts. Similarly, reviewed studies have ventured in this direction to appraise the vulnerability of sector-based fishing (Jacinto et al. 2015 ) and examine how climate change has affected the macroeconomy (Suh and Pomeroy 2020a ). Both studies have contributed by proposing impact-specific models to forecast and prepare beforehand.

We can argue that the existing body of knowledge has attempted to address the need to propose adaptation strategies and management of resources on climate change which Lindegren and Brander ( 2018 ) coin as still pending. According to them, adaptation should not be reactive and divorced from communities. Adaptation has likewise gained ground in other literature. In fact, Miao ( 2018 ) posits that strategy developments such as this enable progress in the understanding of mitigating risks and vulnerabilities associated with climate change. Reviewed literature has discussed climate change adaption policies in the context of the gender dimension (Graziano et al. 2018 ), at the community level (Andriesse et al. 2020 ; Macusi et al. 2020 ), and post-disaster recovery (Drury O'Neill et al. 2019 ). These papers emphasized the need for strategic approaches laden on specific vulnerabilities in order to address the critical issues associated with climate change.

Lastly, researchers have delved into perception studies. As Mulyasari et al. ( 2018 ) argue, the impressions and judgments of fisher folks are vital in the discourse mitigating climate change issues because such perceptions are shaped by experiences and time spent in the conduct of fishing. Reviewed literature showed similar adherence to this argument and expanded to identify the perceptions of local stakeholders (Quevedo et al. 2020 ) and high school students (Lagbas and Habito 2016 ). Such studies have carried on with the notion that the community members’ knowledge is essential in improving sustainability towards current fishing practices.

On the other hand, the main themes were derived from the reviewed literature’ research foci. These include resource management (59%), economy and livelihood (19%), governance and stakeholder participation (11%), and community marginalization (11%), as reflected in Table ​ Table4. 4 . Fisheries remain a means for food security and economic driver in the Philippines (Ding et al. 2017 ). According to Suh and Pomeroy ( 2020a ), climate change will deal long-term economic impacts on the Philippines and cause a drop between 9 and 18% in fisheries GDP by 2060. Climate change has likewise threatened the fisheries sector with environmental implications (Johnson and Harrison 2015 ; Yamaguchi and Sai 2015 ) which eventually led to certain impacts on livelihood (Mulyasari et al. 2018 ). As Macusi et al. ( 2020 ), Filipino fisher folks in Eastern Mindanao are vulnerable because several factors, including environmental changes, have influenced their livelihood in fishing. Typhoons, which are getting stronger, more frequent, larger in scale, and longer in duration, cause severe damage to coral reef communities (Abesamis et al. 2018 ; Anticamara and Go 2017 ). Climate change may also lead to substantial damage of insular habitats due to sea-level rise (Bellard et al. 2014 ). Hence, alternative livelihoods to offset such vulnerabilities should be addressed by onward strategies (Jacinto et al. 2015 ).

Main themes

The role of government and different stakeholders has enhanced support for fisheries in adapting to climate change (Miao 2018 ). In fact, adapting to climate change by integrating governance (Rizal and Anna 2018 ) and the other community actors is essential in alleviating its impacts (Macusi et al. 2015 ). Reviewed studies have explored on this thought by investigating current management practices (Quevedo et al. 2020 ) and sustainable thinking (Lagbas and Dl. Habito, 2016). On the other hand, formal governance and structural strategies were examined by Drury O'Neill et al. ( 2019 ). Based on their study, systematic power relations remain at the forefront of Philippine governance in fishing. This corroborates with the position of various scholars (de Leon and Pittock 2017 ; Heenan et al. 2015 ) which states that governance remains a barrier and that decision-making should be restructured by employing integration and cooperation among all concerned. This theme is closely linked to community marginalization, which emerged as the last finding. From the papers reviewed, this theme pertains to how the issues in fisheries associated with climate change have also touched the belittling of women (Graziano et al. 2018 ) and small-scale fishers (Andriesse et al. 2020 ).

Conclusions and recommendations

A systematic literature review was facilitated in order to determine how the current body of knowledge interrogates the critical impacts on the fisheries sector associated with climate change as contextualized in the Philippine setting. Using Web of Science and Scopus as databases, this paper has analyzed and synthesized 27 pieces of literature to answer the research aim. Based on this, the researchers have identified the trend in publication years as well as the favored methodology. From 2010 to 2020, studies on climate change in relation to fisheries published in WoS and Scopus are few, averaging approximately 3 published studies per year. The year 2020 has seen an increase, with 5 papers as of writing. For the twenty-seven papers identified and reviewed, 74% employed quantitative methods, 15% pursued qualitative, while the rest conducted mixed methods. This shows that scholars prefer using a positivist paradigm with some inclination to triangulation in understanding critical issues in the fisheries sector associated with climate change.

Likewise, the findings of this paper present four categories and four main themes which point out what has been done in recent years. The thematic analysis on these papers’ categories revolved around resource management, adaptation, impacts assessments, and perceptions. These studies revolve around strategies on how to manage fishery resources, build resilience, and improve current practices and policies concerning fishing and climate change. Second, measurement tools and models were designed and utilized in order to determine the extent of vulnerabilities and negative outcomes associated with climate change in the fisheries sector. Third, papers have also explored on understanding the attitudes and beliefs of various actors on their perceptions on climate change in the context of fisheries. Subsequently, themes such as resource management, economy and livelihood, governance and stakeholder participation, and community marginalization have also emerged from the research foci of the papers reviewed. For one, fisheries remain as an economic and income driver for the entire Philippines. Climate change is seen as a factor that can highly influence both economy and livelihood of all actors. Next, strategies on fishing from the perspective of all stakeholders were examined by scholars. Reviewed research showed that integration and cooperation are vital in sustainable fishing amid climate change. Lastly, specific groups remain vulnerable in fishing. This points out the need to further investigate the influences of marginalized groups and their role in fisheries.

The contribution of this paper is twofold. For one, the findings call on for both the public and private sector by responding to management strategies and policy changes which address the gaps mentioned in each main theme. The economic sphere of fishing with respect to livelihood generation should be anchored on the ability of the fisheries sector to cope with environmental changes. As such, cooperation and integration towards decision-making are vital as pointed out in the second theme. Capacity building and human capital investment can hence ensure that no specific group gets left behind and marginalized in the development of fishing. There should be recognition of the role of women in the fishery sector and demands for equal opportunity. Adaptive strategies to overcome fisher folk marginalization, spatial planning, and curbing of illegal and unsustainable fishing are also necessary to lessen the impact of climate change on vulnerable communities. Second, the authors direct future research on impacts assessments and perception studies by diversifying the samples to cover under-researched areas such as needs assessment of fishermen, under-represented groups such as indigenous fisher folks, the role of women, and under-investigated geographic locations such as the Visayas. Spatial management research anchored on climate change for small-scale fisheries might offer recommendations for adaptation strategies. Also, researches on the impact of climate change laws (i.e., Climate Change Act of 2009) and policies or other forms of interventions might aid government agencies to review and revise their existing policies. Another direction for research might be related to longline fishing and its ecological impact (Griffiths et al. 2010 ) and stock assessment models for fisheries management (Tanaka 2019 ). Moreover, researches on climate change should be carried out within the multifaceted context of Philippine fisheries, taking into consideration scientific management, culture, respect for indigenous communities, territorial disputes, and sustainable fishery operations. Not only will this contribute to further the inquiry on critical problems associated with climate change but also improve the limited literature available in the context of the Philippines. Furthermore, succeeding review papers can replicate this study by examining what has been done and what can be done in other neighboring Asian countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam who likewise rely on fisheries and are impacted by climate change. The feasibility of conducting further studies, however, may be influenced by the COVID-19 situation, government policies, security, and accessibility of the fishery areas in the Philippines.

Author contribution

Jen-Ming Liu-Data collection, study design, data analysis, manuscript writing

Elaine Q. Borazon-Study design, data collection, data analysis, manuscript writing

Kyrie Eleison Muñoz-Manuscript writing, data analysis, data collection

Data Availability

Declarations.

Not applicable as no human participants are involved.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

• Abesamis RA, Langlois T, Birt M, Thillainath E, Bucol AA, Arceo HO, Russ GR. Benthic habitat and fish assemblage structure from shallow to mesophotic depths in a storm-impacted marine protected area. Coral Reefs. 2018; 37 (1):81–97. doi: 10.1007/s00338-017-1635-0. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Allan JD, Abell R, Hogan Z, Revenga C, Taylor B, Welcomme R, Winemiller K (2005) Overfishing of Inland Waters. Bioscience 55(12):1041–1051
• Andriesse E. Persistent fishing amidst depletion environmental and socio-economic vulnerability in Iloilo Province, the Philippines. Ocean Coast Manag. 2018; 157 :130–137. doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.02.004. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Andriesse E, Kittitornkool J, Saguin K, Kongkaew C (2020) Can fishing communities escape marginalisation? Comparing overfishing, environmental pressures and adaptation in Thailand and the Philippines. Asia Pacific Viewpoint 62(3):72–85
• Anticamara JA, Go KTB. Impacts of super-typhoon Yolanda on Philippine reefs and communities. Reg Environ Chang. 2017; 17 (3):703–713. doi: 10.1007/s10113-016-1062-8. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Aubin J, Baruthio A, Mungkung R, Lazard J. Environmental performance of brackish water polyculture system from a life cycle perspective: a Filipino case study. Aquaculture. 2015; 435 :217–227. doi: 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2014.09.019. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Badjeck M-C, Allison EH, Halls AS, Dulvy NK. Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods. Mar Policy. 2010; 34 (3):375–383. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2009.08.007. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Bannister W, McGowan S, Santos-Borja AC, Quak J, Fong LS, Mendoza M, Papa RDS, Taylor D. Potential anthropogenic regime shifts in three freshwater lakes in Tropical East Asia. Freshw Biol. 2019; 64 (4):708–722. doi: 10.1111/fwb.13256. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Barange M, Merino G, Blanchard JL, Scholtens J, Harle J, Allison EH, Allen JI, Holt J, Jennings S. Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries. Nat Clim Chang. 2014; 4 (3):211–216. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2119. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Beaumont NJ, Aanesen M, Austen MC, Börger T, Clark JR, Cole M, Hooper T, Lindeque PK, Pascoe C, Wyles KJ. Global ecological social and economic impacts of marine plastic. Mar Pollut Bull. 2019; 142 :189–195. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.03.022. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Bellard C, Leclerc C, Courchamp F. Impact of sea level rise on the 10 insular biodiversity hotspots. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2014; 23 (2):203–212. doi: 10.1111/geb.12093. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Bergland H, Pedersen PA, Wyller J. Accumulated marine pollution and fishery dynamics. Ecol Complex. 2019; 38 :56–74. doi: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2019.03.001. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Blanchard JL, Watson RA, Fulton EA, Cottrell RS, Nash KL, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Büchner M, Carozza DA, Cheung WWL, Elliott J, Davidson LNK, Dulvy NK, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Galbraith E, Lotze HK, Maury O, Müller C, Tittensor DP, Jennings S. Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2017; 1 (9):1240–1249. doi: 10.1038/s41559-017-0258-8. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Blasiak R, Spijkers J, Tokunaga K, Pittman J, Yagi N, Österblom H (2017) Climate change and marine fisheries: least developed countries top global index of vulnerability. PLoS ONE 12(6):e0179632. 10.1371/journal.pone.0179632 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Creswell JW, Plano Clark VL. Designing and Conducting mixed methods research. OH, USA: University of Cincinnati; 2017. [ Google Scholar ]
• de Leon EG, Pittock J. Integrating climate change adaptation and climate-related disaster risk-reduction policy in developing countries: a case study in the Philippines. Clim Dev. 2017; 9 (5):471–478. doi: 10.1080/17565529.2016.1174659. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Dey MM, Rosegrant MW, Gosh K, Chen OL, Valmonte-Santos R. Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: model estimation strategy, and baseline results. Mar Policy. 2016; 67 :156–163. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.011. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ding Q, Chen X, Hilborn R, Chen Y. Vulnerability to impacts of climate change on marine fisheries and food security. Mar Policy. 2017; 83 :55–61. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2017.05.011. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Drury O'Neill E, Crona B, Ferrer AJ, Pomeroy R (2019) From typhoons to traders: the role of patron-client relations in mediating fishery responses to natural disasters. Environ Res Lett 14:045015
• Duncan C, Primavera JH, Pettorelli N, Thompson JR, Loma RJA, Koldewey HJ. Rehabilitating mangrove ecosystem services: a case study on the relative benefits of abandoned pond reversion from Panay Island, Philippines. Mar Pollut Bull. 2016; 109 (2):772–782. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.05.049. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Food and Agriculture Organization . Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture. Food and Agriculture Organization: Rome; 2018. [ Google Scholar ]
• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2016) The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 2016, Rome  
• Fox HE, Mascia MB, Basurto X, Costa A, Glew L, Heinemann D, Karrer LB, Lester SE, Lombana AV, Pomeroy RS, Recchia CA, Roberts CM, Sanchirico JN, Pet-Soede L, White AT. Reexamining the science of marine protected areas: linking knowledge to action. Conserv Lett. 2012; 5 (1):1–10. doi: 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2011.00207.x. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Geronimo RC (2018) Projected climate change impacts on Philippine marine fish distributions. Department of Agriculture – Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Philippines 
• Gong X, Sui L, Morton J, Brennan MA, Brennan CS. Investigation of nutritional and functional effects of rice bran protein hydrolysates by using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines: a review. Trends Food Sci Technol. 2021; 110 :798–811. doi: 10.1016/j.tifs.2021.01.089. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Gopal T, Anbumozhi V. Effects of disasters and climate change on fisheries sectors and implications for ASEAN food security. In: Anbumozhi V, Breiling M, Reddy V, editors. Towards a Resilient ASEAN Disasters, Climate Change, and Food Security: Supporting ASEAN Resilience. Jakarta, Indonesia: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia; 2019. pp. 161–188. [ Google Scholar ]
• Goreau TJF, Hayes RL. Global warming triggers coral reef bleaching tipping point. Ambio. 2021; 50 (6):1137–1140. doi: 10.1007/s13280-021-01512-2. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Graziano K, Pollnac R, Christie P. Wading past assumptions: gender dimensions of climate change adaptation in coastal communities of the Philippines. Ocean Coast Manag. 2018; 162 :24–33. doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.01.029. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Griffiths SP, Young JW, Lansdell MJ, Campbell RA, Hampton J, Hoyle SD, Langley A, Bromhead D, Hinton MG. Ecological effects of longline fishing and climate change on the pelagic ecosystem off eastern Australia. Rev Fish Biol Fish. 2010; 20 (2):239–272. doi: 10.1007/s11160-009-9157-7. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Gurney GG, Melbourne-Thomas J, Geronimo RC, Alino PM, Johnson CR. Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change? PLoS One. 2013; 8 (11):17. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080137. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Handisyde N, Telfer TC, Ross LG. Vulnerability of aquaculture-related livelihoods to changing climate at the global scale. Fish Fish. 2017; 18 (3):466–488. doi: 10.1111/faf.12186. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Heenan A, Pomeroy R, Bell J, Munday PL, Cheung W, Logan C, Brainard R, Yang Amri A, Aliño P, Armada N, David L, Rivera-Guieb R, Green S, Jompa J, Leonardo T, Mamauag S, Parker B, Shackeroff J, Yasin Z. A climate-informed ecosystem approach to fisheries management. Mar Policy. 2015; 57 :182–192. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2015.03.018. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Jacinto MR, Songcuan AJG, Yip GV, Santos MD. Development and application of the fisheries vulnerability assessment tool (Fish Vool) to tuna and sardine sectors in the Philippines. Fish Res. 2015; 161 :174–181. doi: 10.1016/j.fishres.2014.07.007. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Johnson A, Harrison M. The increasing problem of nutrient runoff on the coast: as development increases along coastlines worldwide, water quality--and everything that depends on it--degrades. Am Sci. 2015; 103 :98+. doi: 10.1511/2015.113.98. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Kamaraj A, Kyriacou H, Seah KTM, Khan WS. Use of human induced pluripotent stem cells for cartilage regeneration in vitro and within chondral defect models of knee joint cartilage in vivo: a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses systematic literature review. Cytotherapy. 2021; 23 :647–661. doi: 10.1016/j.jcyt.2021.03.008. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Kothari CR. Research metholodgy. India: New Age International Publishers; 2004. [ Google Scholar ]
• Lagbas AJ, Habito DC. Ecosystem services of coastal and fisheries resources: Perspectives of high school students in Municipality of Panukulan, Polillo Island, Quezon, Philippines. Journal of Marine and Island Cultures. 2016; 5 (2):145–158. doi: 10.1016/j.imic.2016.09.005. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Legaspi K, Lau AYA, Jordan P, Mackay A, McGowan S, McGlynn G, Baldia S, Papa RD, Taylor D. Establishing the impacts of freshwater aquaculture in tropical Asia: the potential role of palaeolimnology. Geo: Geography and Environment. 2015; 2 (2):148–163. [ Google Scholar ]
• Li T, Hua F, Dan S, Zhong Y, Levey C, Song Y. Reporting quality of systematic review abstracts in operative dentistry: an assessment using the PRISMA for Abstracts guidelines. J Dent. 2020; 102 :103471. doi: 10.1016/j.jdent.2020.103471. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Licuanan WY (2020) Current management, conservation, and research imperatives for Philippine coral reefs. Philipp J Sci 149(3)
• Lima CO, Bonetti J. Bibliometric analysis of the scientific production on coastal communities’ social vulnerability to climate change and to the impact of extreme events. Nat Hazards. 2020; 102 (3):1589–1610. doi: 10.1007/s11069-020-03974-1. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Lindegren M, Brander K. Adapting fisheries and their management to climate change: a review of concepts, tools, frameworks, and current progress toward implementation. Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture. 2018; 26 (3):400–415. doi: 10.1080/23308249.2018.1445980. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Locke C, Muljono P, McDougall C, Morgan M. Innovation and gendered negotiations: Insights from six small-scale fishing communities. Fish Fish. 2017; 18 (5):943–957. doi: 10.1111/faf.12216. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Macusi E, Abreo NA, Abreo S, Cuenca G, Ranara CT, Ranara B, Cardona L, Andam M, Guanzon G, Katikiro R, Deepananda KHM, Macusi E, Cuenca N, Ranara G, Cardona C, Andam L, Guanzon M, Katikiro G, Ashoka K. The potential impacts of climate change on freshwater fish fish culture and fishing communities. Journal of Nature Studies. 2015; 14 :14–31. [ Google Scholar ]
• Macusi ED, Macusi ES, Jimenez LA, Catam-isan JP. Climate change vulnerability and perceived impacts on small-scale fisheries in eastern Mindanao. Ocean Coast Manag. 2020; 189 :105143. doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105143. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Magdaong ET, Fujii M, Yamano H, Licuanan WY, Maypa A, Campos WL, Alcala AC, White AT, Apistar D, Martinez R. Long-term change in coral cover and the effectiveness of marine protected areas in the Philippines: a meta-analysis. Hydrobiologia. 2014; 733 (1):5–17. doi: 10.1007/s10750-013-1720-5. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Mamauag SS, Alino PM, Martinez RJS, Muallil RN, Doctor MVA, Dizon EC, Geronimo RC, Panga FM, Cabral RB. A framework for vulnerability assessment of coastal fisheries ecosystems to climate change-tool for understanding resilience of fisheries (VA-TURF) Fish Res. 2013; 147 :381–393. doi: 10.1016/j.fishres.2013.07.007. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• McIntyre PB, Reidy Liermann CA, Revenga C. Linking freshwater fishery management to global food security and biodiversity conservation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016; 113 (45):12880–12885. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1521540113. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Melbourne-Thomas J, Johnson CR, Alino PM, Geronimo RC, Villanoy CL, Gurney GG. A multi-scale biophysical model to inform regional management of coral reefs in the western Philippines and South China Sea. Environ Model Softw. 2011; 26 (1):66–82. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.033. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Miao W. FAO/APFIC 1 regional consultation on building climate resilient fisheries and aquaculture in asia-pacific. FAO Aquaculture Newsletter. 2018; 58 :15–16. [ Google Scholar ]
• Mohamed Shaffril HA, Samah AA, Samsuddin SF, Ali Z. Mirror-mirror on the wall what climate change adaptation strategies are practiced by the Asian’s fishermen of all? J Clean Prod. 2019; 232 :104–117. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.262. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Moher D, Liberati A, Tetzlaff J, Altman DG (2009) Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the PRISMA statement 339:b2535 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Muallil RN, Mamauag SS, Cababaro JT, Arceo HO, Aliño PM. Catch trends in Philippine small-scale fisheries over the last five decades: the fishers’ perspectives. Mar Policy. 2014; 47 :110–117. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2014.02.008. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Muallil RN, Deocadez MR, Martinez RJS, Campos WL, Mamauag SS, Nanola CL, Alino PM. Effectiveness of small locally-managed marine protected areas for coral reef fisheries management in the Philippines. Ocean Coast Manag. 2019; 179 :7. doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.104831. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Mulyasari G, Irham I, Waluyati L, Suryantini A. Perceptions and local adaptation strategies to climate change of marine capture fishermen in Bengkulu Province, Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2018; 200 :012037. [ Google Scholar ]
• Nong D. Potential economic impacts of global wild catch fishery decline in Southeast Asia and South America. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2019; 62 :213–226. doi: 10.1016/j.eap.2019.04.004. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Page MJ, Moher D, Bossuyt PM, Boutron I, Hoffmann TC, Mulrow CD, Shamseer L, Tetzlaff JM, Akl EA, Brennan SE, Chou R, Glanville J, Grimshaw JM, Hróbjartsson A, Lalu MM, Li T, Loder EW, Mayo-Wilson E, McDonald S, McGuinness LA, Stewart LA, Thomas J, Tricco AC, Welch VA, Whiting P, McKenzie JE. PRISMA 2020 explanation and elaboration: updated guidance and exemplars for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ. 2021; 372 :n160. doi: 10.1136/bmj.n160. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Palomares ML, Pauly D (2014) Philippine marine fisheries catches : a bottom-up reconstruction, 1950 to 2010. Fish Cent Res Rep 22(1)
• Pauly D. Having to science the hell out of it. ICES J Mar Sci. 2016; 73 (9):2156–2166. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsw045. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Pomeroy R, Parks J, Courtney K, Mattich N. Improving marine fisheries management in Southeast Asia: Results of a regional fisheries stakeholder analysis. Mar Policy. 2016; 65 :20–29. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.002. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Quevedo JMD, Uchiyama Y, Kohsaka R. Perceptions of the seagrass ecosystems for the local communities of Eastern Samar, Philippines: Preliminary results and prospects of blue carbon services. Ocean Coast Manag. 2020; 191 :105181. doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105181. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Rizal A, Anna Z (2018) Climate change and its possible food security implications toward Indonesian marine and fisheries. World News of Natural Sciences 22:119–128
• Russ GR, Rizzari JR, Abesamis RA, Alcala AC (2020) Coral cover a stronger driver of reef fish trophic biomass than fishing. Ecol Appl 31(1):e02224 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Santos M, Dickson JO, Velasco PEL. Mitigating the impacts of climate change: Philippine fisheries in focus. Fish People. 2011; 9 :103–112. [ Google Scholar ]
• Seidler R, Dietrich K, Schweizer S, Bawa KS, Chopde S, Zaman F, Sharma A, Bhattacharya S, Devkota LP, Khaling S. Progress on integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction for sustainable development pathways in South Asia: evidence from six research projects. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2018; 31 :92–101. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.04.023. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Servonnat M, Kaye R, Siringan FP, Munar J, Yap HT. Imperatives for conservation in a threatened center of biodiversity. Coast Manag. 2019; 47 (5):453–472. doi: 10.1080/08920753.2019.1641040. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Shaish L, Levy G, Katzir G, Rinkevich B. Coral reef restoration (Bolinao, Philippines) in the face of frequent natural catastrophes. Restor Ecol. 2010; 18 (3):285–299. doi: 10.1111/j.1526-100X.2009.00647.x. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Sharma S, Oremus M. PRISMA and AMSTAR show systematic reviews on health literacy and cancer screening are of good quality. J Clin Epidemiol. 2018; 99 :123–131. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2018.03.012. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Suh D, Pomeroy R. Projected economic impact of climate change on marine capture fisheries in the Philippines. Front Mar Sci. 2020; 2 :232. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2020.00232. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Suh D, Pomeroy R. Projected economic impact of climate change on marine capture fisheries in the Philippines. Front Mar Sci. 2020; 7 :14. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2020.00232. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Tanaka KR. Chapter 19 - Integrating environmental information into stock assessment models for fisheries management. In: Cheung WWL, Ota Y, editors. Cisneros-Montemayor, A. M. Predicting Future Oceans: Elsevier; 2019. pp. 193–206. [ Google Scholar ]
• Tran TC, Le S, Nguyen KA (2017) Vietnam’s small and medium sized enterprises development: Characteristics, constraints and policy recommendations. In: Lim H (ed.), SME in Asia and Globalization, ERIA Research Project Report 2007–5:323–364
• van Eck NJ, Waltman L. Software survey: VOSviewer, a computer program for bibliometric mapping. Scientometrics. 2010; 84 (2):523–538. doi: 10.1007/s11192-009-0146-3. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Wang Z, Zhao Y, Wang B. A bibliometric analysis of climate change adaptation based on massive research literature data. J Clean Prod. 2018; 199 :1072–1082. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.06.183. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Williams C. Combatting marine pollution from land-based activities: Australian initiatives. Ocean Coast Manag. 1996; 33 (1-3):87–112. doi: 10.1016/S0964-5691(96)00046-4. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Yamaguchi H, Sai K. Simulating the vertical dynamics of phosphate and their effects on the growth of harmful algae. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci. 2015; 164 :425–432. doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2015.07.043. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Yang ECL, Khoo-Lattimore C, Arcodia C. A systematic literature review of risk and gender research in tourism. Tour Manag. 2017; 58 :89–100. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2016.10.011. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Yin R. Qualitative research from start to finish. New York: The Guilford Press; 2016. [ Google Scholar ]
• Yñiguez AT, Lim PT, Leaw CP, Jipanin SJ, Iwataki M, Benico G, Azanza RV (2020) Over 30 years of HABs in the Philippines and Malaysia: what have we learned? Harmful Algae 102. 10.1016/j.hal.2020.101776 [ PubMed ]

Click through the PLOS taxonomy to find articles in your field.

For more information about PLOS Subject Areas, click here .

Loading metrics

Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Climate variability impacts on rice production in the Philippines

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

Affiliations Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, Republic of Korea, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea

Roles Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliation Department of Tropical Plant & Soil Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States of America

• Malte F. Stuecker, 
• Michelle Tigchelaar, 
• Michael B. Kantar

• Published: August 9, 2018
• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426
• Reader Comments

Changes in crop yield and production over time are driven by a combination of genetics, agronomics, and climate. Disentangling the role of these various influences helps us understand the capacity of agriculture to adapt to change. Here we explore the impact of climate variability on rice yield and production in the Philippines from 1987–2016 in both irrigated and rainfed production systems at various scales. Over this period, rice production is affected by variations in soil moisture, which are largely driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We found that the climate impacts on rice production are strongly seasonally modulated and differ considerably by region. As expected, rainfed upland rice production systems are more sensitive to soil moisture variability than irrigated paddy rice. About 10% of the variance in rice production anomalies on the national level co-varies with soil moisture changes, which in turn are strongly negatively correlated with an index capturing ENSO variability. Our results show that while temperature variability is of limited importance in the Philippines today, future climate projections suggest that by the end of the century, temperatures might regularly exceed known limits to rice production if warming continues unabated. Therefore, skillful seasonal prediction will likely become increasingly crucial to provide the necessary information to guide agriculture management to mitigate the compounding impacts of soil moisture variability and temperature stress. Detailed case studies like this complement global yield studies and provide important local perspectives that can help in food policy decisions.

Citation: Stuecker MF, Tigchelaar M, Kantar MB (2018) Climate variability impacts on rice production in the Philippines. PLoS ONE 13(8): e0201426. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426

Editor: Vanesa Magar, Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada Division de Fisica Aplicada, MEXICO

Received: February 18, 2018; Accepted: July 16, 2018; Published: August 9, 2018

Copyright: © 2018 Stuecker et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: Data was sourced from the following third party providers: Rice production data from 1987-2016 were obtained from the Philippine government statistic authority ( http://countrystat.psa.gov.ph/ ). ENSO variability was characterized using the Niño3.4 (N3.4) index, which is calculated as the area averaged sea surface temperature anomalies from HadISST1 ( https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html ) in the region 170°W-120°W and 5°S-5°N. Soil moisture data were obtained from CPC (version 2) at 0.5º horizontal resolution (35) ( https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cpcsoil.html ). Surface air temperature (2m) was obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis on a 0.125º horizontal grid ( https://www.ecmwf.int/ ). Future climate projection data were obtained from the CMIP5 database for the business-as-usual scenario RCP 8.5 ( https://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/data_portal.html ).

Funding: MFS was supported by the Institute for Basic Science (project code IBS- R028-D1) and the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR's Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Sciences (CPAESS) and MT was funded by a grant from the Tamaki Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

Rice–which provides nearly half the calories for half the world’s population [ 1 ; 2 ]–is a key crop for the Philippines: it is a staple food (with >110 kg/person/year consumption, [ 3 ], http://irri.org/rice-today/nourishing-a-nation ), the sixth highest per capita consumption in the world), as well as a major source of income (rice production valued at ~6 billion U.S. dollars in 2015; [ 4 ]). The Philippines produces approximately 3% of the world’s rice in both “lowland” flooded transplanted paddies and “upland” rainfed direct seeded areas [ 5 ]. As such, understanding what drives changes in rice production in the Philippines is essential for meeting current and future food security [ 6 ; 7 ]. Variations in crop yields can be explained by either endogenous drivers, such as genetics (including breeding methods–pure line, synthetic, hybrid) and agronomy (including technology–use of fertilizer, irrigation, machinery) [ 6 ; 8 ; 9 ], and exogenous forcing such as climate variability, which has been reported to decrease the influence of genetics [ 10 ]. The role of climate is becoming increasingly important due to anthropogenic climate change, which could drastically change local environments, damage yields [ 11 ; 12 ], and influence the yield stability of staple crops [ 13 ; 14 ]. Here we assess how current and future climate variability influences the various modes of rice production in the Philippines.

Continuing to feed a growing world population expected to reach ~9 billion by 2050 [ 15 ] while faced with a changing climate is a tremendous challenge. To date, global food production has steadily increased through innovations in agricultural technology (improved practices and genetics). The Philippines has mirrored global trends, with population increasing from ~26 million in 1960 to ~101 million in 2015, and rice production increasing from ~3.9 million tonnes in 1961 to ~19.0 million tonnes in 2014. This large improvement has been due to increased yields (production per unit area) and increased acreage being placed into production [ 16 ]. However, it is unclear whether it will be possible to sustain increasing production into the future [ 17 ], and if the changing land use patterns for agriculture are sustainable [ 18 ].

The Philippines is a large and spatially heterogeneous country, consisting of 7107 islands divided into 18 political regions and 81 provinces. There are four major climate regimes: 1) distinct wet monsoon and dry season, 2) no distinct dry season but a strong wet monsoon season, 3) intermediate between type 1 and 2, where there is a short wet monsoon and short dry season, and 4) an even distribution of rainfall throughout the year [ 19 ]. Planting dates vary between regions based largely on differences in climate ( S1 Table ). While rice in the Philippines is grown throughout the year ( S1 Table ), the largest production share is grown during the wet season. Due to this diversity of planting and harvesting, the government of the Philippines takes annual, semester, and quarterly statistics on rice production and harvested areas. Farms in the Philippines are generally small (less than two hectares on average; [ 20 ]), which may limit the implementation of advanced farming technologies. Currently, irrigated paddy rice accounts for 60% of total production [ 21 ], with the remainder grown as upland directly seeded rice.

In the Philippines, the dominant climate influence on inter-annual timescales is from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO has pronounced effects on global rainfall and temperature variability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region [ 22 ; 23 ; 24 ]. It has been shown that this inter-annual climate variability can drastically impact crop yields and production globally [ 14 ; 25 ; 26 ]. In the tropical western Pacific region, El Niño events (the warm phase of ENSO) generally have a negative effect on farming. Specifically, El Niño induced droughts in the western Pacific have detrimentally affected Indonesian rice production [ 27 ], with worsening effects projected in response to greenhouse gas forcing [ 28 ]. Previous work on ENSO in the Philippines has shown that dry-season rice production is negatively impacted by El Niño on Luzon Island [ 25 ]. Additionally, tropical cyclones are a source of weather variability that is strongly seasonally modulated and exhibits localized impacts, suggesting that climate-yield and climate-production relationships need to be evaluated regionally and on sub-annual timescales.

An important limiting factor to increased food production in response to population growth and dietary shifts in the next century is the ability of crops to respond to climate variability, for instance soil moisture, surface temperatures, and the frequency of severe storms [ 29 ; 30 ]. Studies of climate impacts on crops typically either use process-based crop models, or evaluate the statistical relationship between crop production and climate variability in the past. Here we use this latter method to evaluate the impact of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines in different spatial and temporal contexts, and compare the range of past climate variability to projected future climate change to assess whether these relationships can be expected to hold in the future. We find that using a finer temporal and spatial resolution provides a more detailed understanding of climatic drivers of rice production, especially for upland (rainfed) rice, which is significantly impacted by ENSO through modifications in soil moisture. By the end of the century, temperatures will likely exceed present-day ranges, and will thus become an additional limiting factor to rice yield and production.

Materials and methods

Data acquisition.

Rice production data from 1987–2016 were obtained from the Philippine government statistic authority ( http://countrystat.psa.gov.ph/ ) for each political region and nationwide. Area harvested (hectares) and production (metric tonnes) data were collected from each political region and for the whole country for each quarter and year, for both irrigated and rainfed rice production. Missing data (where survey data was not complete) were linearly interpolated for each region (harvested area and production for rainfed systems) on the quarterly data (less than 1% of the data were missing). No values were missing for irrigated systems. Yield (tonnes per hectare) was calculated by dividing production by area for each quarter from 1987–2016.

To explore the ecological tolerance of rice we obtained the locality information of accessions stored in gene banks worldwide from https://www.genesys-pgr.org for tropical localities (from 23.5°S-23.5°N). From geo-referenced coordinates, we obtained surface temperature data for tropical rice from the WorldClim database at 30 arc seconds resolution [ 31 ], which were used to explore the climatic space inhabited by tropical rice.

Yield normalization

We created continuous time series of production and yield (rainfed and irrigated) for each aggregated political region. To remove the effect of yield increases due to breeding methods, we removed a ~7 year (27 quarters) running mean from each continuous time series and afterwards removed the residual total mean to construct an anomalous time series with zero mean. The results were qualitatively stable to the choice of the running mean window size (a 5 year window was also tested, data not shown). These normalization timescales are commonly used in the literature [ 11 ; 32 ] and correspond to a normal life cycle of a rice genotype used in farming [ 33 ].

Climate data

To calculate climate anomalies, we removed both the annual cycle (1987–2016 climatology) and the linear trend from each of the climate variables used. ENSO variability was characterized using the Niño3.4 (N3.4) index, which is calculated as the area averaged sea surface temperature anomalies from HadISST1 [ 34 ] in the region 170°W-120°W and 5°S-5°N. Soil moisture data were obtained from CPC (version 2) at 0.5° horizontal resolution [ 35 ]. Surface air temperature (2m) was obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis [ 36 ] on a 0.125° horizontal grid. For the global warming projections (see below), the present-day reference temperatures were obtained from the CRU TS version 3.23 dataset, which presents monthly data from the period 1901–2014 on a 0.5° horizontal grid [ 37 ]. To evaluate crop-climate relationships at the different spatial scales, climate data were either spatially averaged for the entire Philippines (here defined by the geographical region 117°E-128°E, 4°N-22°N) or the respective regions (see S1 Table ).

Climate projections

Future climate projection data were obtained from the CMIP5 database [ 38 ] for the business-as-usual scenario RCP 8.5. Monthly output was obtained from eighteen climate models and interpolated using bilinear interpolation to a 0.5° resolution common grid. For the 2°C and 4°C warming targets, we first constructed the canonical global warming temperature pattern [ 39 ] for each of the eighteen models by taking the difference in monthly climatology between the 2080–2099 and 1980–1999 time periods, normalized by the global, annual mean temperature change. The future climate projections are then calculated by adding the change in each (2°C or 4°C warmer) model climatology to the observed (1911–2010) climate history, thus preserving the present-day interannual temperature variability [ 40 ].

Correlation analysis

We utilize standard correlation analysis to investigate the relationships between the respective climate variables and rice production and yield. For these relationships, we consider seasonal anomalies to be independent from anomalies in the same season of the previous and following years, which leads to an effective sample size of 30 (number of years). For all spatial maps that show temporal correlation coefficients in shading for the different geographical regions, an absolute value of the correlation coefficient of ~0.31 is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level using a two-tailed t-test (df = 28). Thus, we are not showing any correlations below an absolute value of 0.3 (white shading) in these maps.

National-level data

Irrigated rice production in the Philippines has almost tripled over the past thirty years, while rainfed rice production has seen a much smaller growth ( Fig 1A ). Over this period, yields for both production systems have increased steadily ( S1A Fig ). Besides this long-term trend, annual rice yields at the national level have been fairly stable over this period, with irrigated paddy rice production having only six yield anomalies exceeding one standard deviation (absolute anomaly of 0.09 [t ha -1 ], which corresponds to ~2.5% of the annual long-term mean in irrigated), while rainfed upland rice crops exhibited eight yield anomalies exceeding one standard deviation (absolute value of 0.07 [t ha -1 ], which corresponds to ~2.9% of the annual long-term mean in rainfed; S1B Fig ). Relative anomalies in total rice production ( Fig 1B ) are larger than those in yield, implying that the effects of climate variability are compounded through both yield and harvested area changes. As a result of the frequent occurrence of natural disasters in the Philippines, production losses are often manageable and built into farm management [ 41 ]. Notable exceptions are 1998 –with two typhoons–and 2010 –with four typhoons, an earthquake and a flood–which both saw large negative production anomalies [ 42 ].

• PPT PowerPoint slide
• PNG larger image
• TIFF original image

A) Annual rice production in the Philippines; B) Annual rice production anomalies (with regard to a 7 yr moving average); C) Quarterly rice production; D) Normalized quarterly rice production anomalies (the annual cycle is removed and the anomalies are with regard to a 7 yr moving average); E) Normalized quarterly rice yield anomalies. Additionally, d) and e) show the quarterly normalized soil moisture anomalies averaged from 117°E-128°E and 4°N-22°N (black line) and the normalized Niño3.4 index (yellow line). In all panels, R indicates instantaneous correlation except for the correlation coefficients in D) and E) between rice production/yield and soil moisture, which are given for a 3 months lead time of soil moisture, between Niño3.4 and soil moisture for a 4 months Niño3.4 lead time, and between Niño3.4 and rice production/yield for a 7 months Niño3.4 lead time.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g001

Aggregating the yield and production data on an annual time scale potentially masks seasonal modulations of both the large-scale climate variability [ 24 ] and crop-climate relationships [ 25 ]. As a result, quarterly production and yield anomalies [ Fig 1D and 1E ] show more variability than the annual data. Rainfed and irrigated rice production anomalies are substantially less correlated with production in the quarterly data (R = 0.65, significant at the 99% confidence level with df = 28) than in the annual time series (R = 0.86, significant at the 99% confidence level with df = 28). About 10% of variance in anomalous rice production on the national level is related to soil moisture variability, which is strongly negatively correlated with the Niño3.4 index ( Fig 1D ). This reduction of rice production during El Niño events is qualitatively similar to the results of global analyses [ 26 ]. While the correlation coefficients between soil moisture anomalies and rice production anomalies are approximately the same for irrigated (R = 0.33, significant at the 90% confidence level with df = 28) and rainfed (R = 0.34, significant at the 90% confidence level with df = 28) rice production, when looking at yield anomalies the correlation is higher for rainfed than for irrigated systems ( Fig 1E ). This shows that, as expected, irrigation can counter much of the plant physiological response to soil moisture changes (as measured by rice yield), but decisions on planting area (as included in rice production) remain sensitive to water availability [ 25 ].

ENSO impacts on soil moisture

On a regional scale as well as on the national level, the correlation between the Niño3.4 index and soil moisture anomalies in the Philippines is negative ( Fig 2 ), i.e., El Niño events lead to dry conditions in all parts of the country. Interestingly, the correlation between ENSO and soil moisture decreases in the third and fourth quarters ( Fig 2 ). One factor might be that in the summer season rainfall variability is dominated by tropical cyclone activity [ 43 ]. While tropical cyclone activity can be modulated by large-scale climate variability such as ENSO, it can be considered a mostly stochastic process on climate timescales. This wet season (Quarters 3 and 4) is also the season when most rice is planted ( Fig 1C ), indicating that wet-season rice production may be largely decoupled from ENSO variability [ 25 ].

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g002

Regional crop-climate relationships

Rice in the Philippines is in the field for 90–110 days, so that planting decisions are made about three months before harvest [ 25 ]. Looking at the lagged correlation between rice production and soil moisture (soil moisture leading by one quarter, Fig 3 ), in most seasons, soil moisture anomalies in the previous quarter are significantly correlated with production variability, with higher soil moisture usually associated with increased rice production. Locally, seasonal correlations can be much higher than the national-level data ( Fig 1D ). A notable exception to this is Quarter 4, when correlations between these two variables are small, or even negative ( Fig 3 ). Production in this quarter is the highest of the year ( Fig 1C ) and represents the wet-season crop. Mean soil moisture conditions during the preceding quarters are high, so that variability in soil moisture does not affect rice planting or yield that much, while the typhoons that often impact the summer season (Q2-Q3) can lead to detrimental flooding in these quarters [ 43 ]. This is in accordance with an analysis of Luzon Island in the Northern Philippines (eight of eighteen regions; [ 25 ]), an area where both mean production ( S2 Fig ) and mean yields ( S3 Fig ) are high.

The annual cycle is removed and production anomalies are with regard to a 7 yr moving average. The soil moisture data are area averaged for each political region corresponding to the rice production data.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g003

Total rice production in any given region is a function of the crop area harvested, the crop yield per unit area, and the number of crops harvested per year. Climate variability influences all of these variables. In Quarter 3, when correlations between soil moisture and total rice production are strongly positive in most regions ( Fig 3 ), there were few locations with significant correlations between previous-quarter soil moisture and rice yield ( Fig 4 ). This means that in this season, soil moisture anomalies might mostly drive planting decisions (i.e., which areas are brought into production), without strongly affecting plant development. During the dry season (Quarters 1 and 2) on the other hand, there are also significant regional correlations between soil moisture and rice yields, implying that climate variability in this season affects both plants and planting decisions. Mean climatological soil moisture conditions thus strongly affect the rice production response to climatic forcing. In contrast to soil moisture, in most regions temperature variability has a much lower correlation with rice yields. In some regions however, ENSO-induced temperature and precipitation changes have an effect in the same direction: El Niño events usually result in dry and hot conditions in the Philippines, which both are associated with a decrease in yield ( S4 Fig ). As we have seen, ENSO is driving a significant part of soil moisture variability in the Philippines which is correlated with rice production variability. Therefore, the predictive skill for ENSO that is seen in operational seasonal forecast models [ 44 ] up to several seasons ahead translates into important information for agriculture management in the Philippines and the possibility to mitigate some of the ENSO-induced effects on rice yields.

The annual cycle is removed and yield anomalies are with regard to a 7 yr moving average. The soil moisture data are area averaged for each political region corresponding to the rice yield data.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g004

The correlation between rice production anomalies in upland rainfed and lowland irrigated systems is stronger in annual data ( Fig 1B ) than in the quarterly data ( Fig 1D ). On a regional level, there is a differential response to climate forcing between these two different management systems. For rice yield in particular, the response to soil moisture changes is, not unexpectedly, stronger for rainfed than for irrigated crops ( Fig 4 ). Previous work found that on a global scale as well, yield losses during El Niño events are greater in rainfed areas compared to irrigated regions [ 26 ]. This shows that irrigation can provide a potentially useful management tool to mitigate climate impacts on rice production in the Philippines. At the same time soil moisture conditions are a direct proxy for local water availability–a major limiting factor for crop yield and production [ 45 ]–which could explain the correlations seen between irrigated rice yields and soil moisture anomalies in Quarter 2 ( Fig 4F ).

When looking at specific regions of high rice production ( S2 Fig ) on Luzon Island (large island in the northern Philippines that includes the regions Cagayan and Central Luzon) and Mimaropa (Southwestern islands within the Philippines), production and yield responses to soil moisture anomalies are not always consistent between these areas (Figs 3 & 4 ). Mimaropa exhibits one of the most consistently positive correlations between soil moisture anomalies and crop output in the Philippines, both in terms of total production and crop yield, and in rainfed and irrigated systems alike. In Central Luzon on the other hand, the response is more variable, and correlations are generally low for rice yields. Negative correlations between soil moisture and yield or production in some quarters and regions may reflect the damaging impact of flooding on rice, which happens fairly frequently [ 42 ]. Due to this nonlinear impact of rainfall on rice yield (i.e., an increase of rainfall can lead to either positive or negative rice yield depending on thresholds in the system), the actual yield variance explained by climate might be larger than suggested by linear correlation analysis, which should be explored further in future studies.

Sensitivity to climate in the future

As we have shown here, climate-induced rice production variability in the Philippines over the past three decades has mostly been related to soil moisture changes, which in turn were associated with large-scale inter-annual rainfall variability caused by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This is in line with previous studies that show that although rice is grown over a large environmental range in both temperate and tropical areas [ 46 ], more variance in yield in tropical areas is usually due to precipitation (and thus also soil moisture) rather than temperature. Generally, tropical environments have relatively small variability in temperature, so other factors such as solar radiation, precipitation, or soil nutrient availability have a larger impact on crop production [ 47 ]. However, this particular expression of crop sensitivity to large-scale climate may fundamentally change in a warming climate [ 48 ].

In the Philippines, temperatures year-round are currently within the range of favorable growing conditions for rice ( Fig 5 ). Despite the fact that we see a significant proportion of variance explained by ENSO-mediated soil moisture variability, in the future the effect of temperature is likely to become increasingly important: If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, by the end of the century summers in the Philippines will be warmer than during the historical record [ 12 ]. Fig 5 shows the year-to-year variability in present-day quarterly temperatures, and how this is projected to change with 2 and 4°C of global warming. Over the past century, quarterly temperatures averaged over the Philippines never exceeded 27°C. With 2°C of global warming, median quarterly temperatures would be outside of the present-day range. With 4°C of global warming, year-to-year temperature variability will be entirely above the range of present-day variability. The effects of this will be particularly impactful during the dry season in Quarter 2, when temperatures are already high and there is low capacity for mitigation through soil moisture.

The variance in future temperatures represents inter-model spread and present-day interannual variability. Occurrence points of rice in the tropics (23.5°S–23.5°N) using quarterly data are plotted in grey, with frequencies rescaled by a factor of 4. Rice location data were downloaded from Genesys PGR [ 78 ].

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.g005

Under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5), the global mean temperature is projected to increase by 2°C as early as 2042, with a median prediction of 2055, and by 4°C between 2075 and 2132. Even in an emissions scenario aiming to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by mid-21st century (RCP 4.5), global mean temperature could rise by 2°C as early as 2052 [ 40 ]. Based on the temperature projections for these global warming targets, the Philippines is thus likely to see a fundamental shift in the climate–rice relationship over the course of the next few decades. This analysis focuses only on seasonal-mean temperature projections. However, the average precipitation, inter-annual climate variability, and the frequency of extremes may change as well, but projections for these are much more uncertain.

Regional and quarterly data of climate variability and rice production in the Philippines show that ENSO-induced changes in soil moisture are a major source of climate-driven production variability, especially during the dry season. Wet-season soil moisture changes seem to be more stochastically driven, and therefore more independent from large-scale climate forcing such as ENSO. During this main growing season background soil moisture conditions are high, so factors other than climate drive planting decisions and crop yields. The sensitivity to climate variability is higher in upland rainfed systems than in lowland irrigated systems, and varies strongly by region.

Regional differences in crop-climate relationships could be partly explained by differences in soil type, which determine water-holding capacity and thus soil moisture content and cropping patterns. Other factors that contribute to regional differences include different rice variety choices, different management practices (fertilization, mechanization, planting date, post-harvest storage), as well as different market demands. Cropping calendars also differ across political regions, which creates a differential ability to respond to climate events (e.g., ENSO), accentuating seasonal differences and changing vulnerability. Predictions of ENSO conditions are skillful in the current generation of seasonal forecast models [ 44 ], which translates into information that can be utilized for agriculture management in the Philippines and provides a possibility to mitigate some of the effects of ENSO on rice yields and production. Importantly, extreme ENSO events (such as the 1997/98 El Niño) that lead to large disruptions of the tropical hydroclimate, are projected to occur more frequently by the end of the century in response to greenhouse gas forcing [ 49 ]. Thus, the dual calamity of projected changes of both the climate mean state and ENSO-induced hydroclimate variability will likely constitute significant challenges to future rice production in the Philippines.

Implications for food security in the Philippines

In any given year national production may be adequate, but there might be severe regional shortfalls that impact both food price and security. In the Philippines, regional shortfalls are evident in years when severe natural disasters occurred [ 42 ]. Regions of high mean production ( S2 Fig ) and yield ( S3 Fig ) naturally dominate the signal seen in national production and yield data ( Fig 1 & S1 Fig ). However, individual regions and provinces may experience food insecurity that differ from those seen at the national level and can potentially be more severe. The regional relationships between climate variability and production/yield in combination with both the regional long-term mean production/yield and seasonal climate forecasts might help to mitigate future impacts.

Food in the Philippines is relatively mobile, but food prices are more volatile in years with natural disasters [ 50 ] and yield shortfalls may disproportionately impact small holders [ 51 ]. These negative effects might be mitigated by changing land use patterns, production techniques, or germplasm (breeding material, crop types stored in gene banks, heirloom types, or wild relatives). In the past, land policies in the Philippines have favored expansion of production [ 52 ], focusing on increased planting of annual staples [ 53 ]. This has led to a steady increase in area under cultivation, including areas that were historically used for other crops. Further, domestic Philippine rice production has been incentivized [ 53 ]. As a result, rice yields increased ~1% a year during the second half of the 20 th century due to both management and genetics [ 54 ], while the area of rice production increased by 50% [ 16 ].

Nonetheless, the Philippines are a large importer of rice (~10% of marketed rice per year). This is due geography [ 55 ], international policy pressure [ 56 ], and colonial history [ 56 ], with imports increasing during times of stress (e.g., during the 1997/98 El Niño when rice imports tripled due to fewer harvestable hectares [ 16 ]). This has led to calls for self-sufficiency in rice production which, while possible, would be difficult to achieve with current agricultural policy in the Philippines [ 56 ] that can leave rice markets susceptible to price increases [ 20 ]. It is hypothesized that if there is renewed investment in agriculture, coupled with improved technology and skillful seasonal forecasting, imports could be reduced, helping to increase domestic food security. However, it is unclear if increased investments will provide the necessary buffer to the system to maintain production increases, especially in a changing climate. Additionally, there have been substantial efforts to breed drought resistant rice, with mixed results, due to the trait complexity [ 57 ], though new varieties show promise [ 58 ].

The north-central area of the Philippines is one of the longest continuously-cultivated areas of rice production in the world. Over time, the objectives of breeding and agronomic endeavors have changed, from local heirloom grown on terraces to mega-varieties grown in an industrial setting across millions of hectares [ 59 ]. At the moment, there is increasing interest in heirloom varieties with specific growth environments as a source of both food and export potential [ 60 ]. In subsistence settings, rice farming is supplemented by local trade economies that can increase local food security [ 61 ]. Moreover, there is a complex agricultural landscape established in the northern Philippines, specifically in Ifugao (rice terraces), where historic intensification has been accompanied by extensification [ 62 ]. These examples support the idea that the agro-cultural context can help mitigate the impacts of environmental pressure on food security.

The role of temperature variability

Our results indicate that temperature variability at present is not a big driver of rice production variability ( S4 Fig ). Under continued greenhouse gas emissions however, the range of temperature variability in the Philippines is projected to be outside the present-day envelope by the end of the century ( Fig 5 ). Increasing temperatures will have major implications for rice production in the Philippines. Recent work estimated that for every degree Celsius global temperature increase, global mean rice yields will decline by 3.2 ± 3.7% [ 63 ]. These reductions were projected without consideration of potential CO 2 fertilization, adaptation in agronomic practices, or genetic adaptation [ 63 ]. While a recent meta-analysis identified an increase in yields under increased CO 2 , this may not be an even increase across crops or regions [ 64 ]. Additionally, a comparison between historic and modern cultivars suggests that during modern breeding there has not been a selection for increased response to increased CO 2 concentrations [ 65 ], limiting the potential future CO 2 -fertilization effect.

The temperature sensitivity of crops is dependent on growth stage [ 66 ], time of day, and time of year, but generally a temperature increase of one degree can decrease yields by up to 10% once a temperature threshold is reached in rice [ 67 ; 68 ; 69 ; 70 ]. Due to this nonlinear threshold behavior, the relative importance of temperature variability to yield variability ( S4 Fig ) may increase in a warmer climate. The combined effects of high temperatures and moisture deficits could critically alter the seasonality and locality of the impact of ENSO on rice production. Furthermore, by the end of the century, inter-annual climate variability will regularly push climate in the Philippines outside the climatic range of current tropical gene accessions ( Fig 5 ). Most tropical rice accessions currently grow at quarterly temperatures below 28°C. In a 4°C warmer world, median quarterly temperatures will exceed this threshold year-round. In the second quarter in particular, temperatures will already regularly exceed 28°C with just 2°C of global warming. The performance of tropical rice crops in these climatic conditions has not been tested and is thus potentially a large threat to future food security.

Implications for plant breeding

The ability to increase yields under rising temperatures is a major target for plant breeders [ 71 ]. However, modern crop plants have undergone two significant population bottlenecks–the first during domestication and the second during improvement processes–that have resulted in a significant decrease of the crop’s genetic diversity relative to their wild progenitors [ 72 ]. For instance, modern Asian rice retains ~80% of the genetic diversity of its wild progenitor [ 73 ]. Generally, plant breeding involves crossing 'good by good', a strategy that results in a continuing loss of genetic diversity. Breeding targets focused on yield and quality have often left behind traits from landraces (heirloom lines that have not undergone modern breeding) and crop wild relatives [ 74 ]. Among these are many traits associated with tolerance to abiotic stress associated with climate change [ 75 ]. There have been increasing efforts to collect data surrounding landrace and wild material in germplasm collections (phenotypes, genotypes, biophysical, environmental) [ 74 ], which has led to the creation of a platform to understand the fastest and most practical way to bring in traits from landrace and wild crop material [ 76 ]. Breeding is a long-term endeavor, with a long research and development time [ 77 ]. This lag time requires a forward-looking approach in order to have plant material ready to be used in the field in time for projected changes in climate. By estimating the current and future temperature envelope of rice production in the Philippines, and comparing this to bioclimatic data of collection locations of rice accessions ( Fig 5 ), we have reduced the number of potential parents that could be used to breed for climate change, thus implementing the first stage of utilizing collections for breeding for climate change.

Conclusions

There is an increasing need to understand how climate variability will impact rice yields and production, particularly as human population continues to increase and climate changes. Comparing multiple spatial scales allows for a more complete understanding of what types of policy recommendations should be made, as it allows for a direct partitioning into the political units that are most likely to be effective at driving landscape change. This study identified ENSO as driving a significant part of soil moisture variability in the Philippines, which in turn is correlated with rice production and yield variability. Therefore, skillful seasonal predictions can provide useful information for agriculture management to mitigate climate-induced effects on rice production and yield. Future tropical climates is likely to be outside the range of optimal temperatures for rice production. This is true in the Philippines, and will likely require a modification of both genetics and agronomic practices. Detailed case studies like this will complement global yield impact studies and provide important local perspectives.

Supporting information

S1 fig. national-level rice yields in the philippines from 1987–2016: irrigated (blue) and rainfed (red) farming techniques..

The linear correlation coefficient R denotes the simultaneous correlation. a) Annual rice yield in the Philippines; b) annual rice yield anomalies (with regard to a 7 yr moving average); c) quarterly rice yield.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s001

S2 Fig. Long-term quarterly mean (1987–2016) rice production for both rainfed and irrigated systems.

Note that grid point values indicate the mean production value of the whole associated province.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s002

S3 Fig. Long-term quarterly mean (1987–2016) rice yield for both rainfed and irrigated systems.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s003

S4 Fig. Correlation coefficient R between and quarterly rice yield and surface temperature anomalies in the previous quarter.

The annual cycle is removed and yield anomalies are with regard to a 7 yr moving average. The temperature data are area averaged for each political region corresponding to the rice yield data.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s004

S1 Table. The table shows if rice is planted or harvested in the administrative regions of the Philippines according the PhilRice planting calendar.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426.s005

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Axel Timmermann, Stephen Acabado, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.

• View Article
• PubMed/NCBI
• Google Scholar
• 4. Bersales, LG. Republic of Philippines. Philippine Statistics Authority. Selected Statistics on Agriculture 2016. ISSN-2012-0362. Quezon City, Philippines. Philippine Statistics Authority 2016
• 16. FAO. 2014. FAOSTAT, Production. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E . Accessed July 2016.
• 33. Bernardo R. Essentials of plant breeding. Stemma Press Woodbury, MN. 2014
• 37. University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, Harris IC, Jones PD. CRU TS3.23: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.23 of High Resolution Gridded Data of Month-by-month Variation in Climate (Jan. 1901- Dec. 2014) [Internet]. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis; 2015. https://doi.org/10.5285/4c7fdfa6-f176-4c58-acee-683d5e9d2ed5
• 42. Israel, DC, Briones, RM. Impacts of natural disasters on agriculture, food security, and natural resources and environment in the Philippines (No. 2012–36). PIDS discussion paper series. 2012
• 55. Dawe DC, Moya P, Casiwan CB. (Eds.). Why does the Philippines import rice?: meeting the challenge of trade liberalization. Int. Rice Res. Institute. Los Banos, Philippines. 2006
• 78. Plant genetic resources accession level data provided by: USDA ARS NPGS, CGIAR, EURISCO, and other data providers to Genesys. All intellectual property rights (including copyright) in the Data are owned and retained by the said institution(s). Data accessed through GENESYS Global Portal on Plant Genetic Resources, http://www.genesys-pgr.org , 2017-03-15.

WFP study provides first-ever look at the links between climate change and food security in the Philippines

The study was launched at a high-level meeting with the Government, private sector, and development partners, coinciding with the final day of the world’s global climate summit - COP 26 - in Glasgow. In a first for the country, the study presents a set of scenarios of possible climate change impacts over time, in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090.

More tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility than anywhere else in the world, with an average of 20 cyclones in the area per year, and about 8 or 9 of them crossing the Philippines. The study and its country-wide scenarios offer stakeholders information and model situations particularly on food production, accessibility, supply stability, utilization, and consumption patterns, and identify the agricultural livelihoods that could be most impacted by climate change, to what extent, and where.

The study points out that coastal communities dependent on fisheries and aquaculture - like those in Visayas and Mindanao - are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm surges, and saltwater intrusions, that can lead to the destruction of aquatic resources on which communities’ livelihoods depend.

Furthermore, in-land rice production areas in Mindanao may face issues in finding crops suitable to the changing weather patterns due to a high risk of drought. Meanwhile, in Luzon for example, selected provinces in urban zones are projected to be affected by prolonged rainfall, including Isabela, Pasil, Kalinga, Cagayan, resulting in destructive flooding.

Pasture and livestock livelihoods are also at risk due to projected ambient temperatures of 30 °C or more by 2050, which could cause heat stress and other climate-related hazards to livestock in the provinces of Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, and Nueva Vizcaya.

Nearly 10 million Filipinos work in the agriculture sector, which in turn provides food for the population of more than 109 million Filipinos. Yet, the impact of climate change on agriculture is devastating. Past studies have shown that the Philippines incurred Php 463 billion in damages due to extreme weather events over the past decade - 62.7 percent of which - or Php 290 billion - were damages caused to the agriculture sector.

“The agriculture sector is at the forefront of the climate crisis and farmers and fishers need urgent support. We need to get ahead of climate change by acting collectively to protect the lives and livelihoods of farmers and millions of others who work in the sector. By supporting them, we contribute to better food security for all Filipinos,” said WFP Representative and Country Director, Brenda Barton.

The study uses WFP’s Consolidated Livelihood Exercise for Analysing Resilience (CLEAR) methodology to help predict the effect of climate change on livelihoods and food security. With the findings of the study, WFP aims to work with the Philippines Government and partners to identify and develop the most appropriate policies and programmes to prepare for climate risks and disasters, and respond to long-term climate change effects.

“As more sectors have access to this study, it is WFP’s aim that more multi-sectoral interventions aimed at promoting climate change adaptation and livelihood resilience are developed and prioritized,” added Barton.

Today’s high-level meeting opened with a panel discussion featuring the United Nations Resident Coordinator in the Philippines, Gustavo Gonzalez, and was moderated by UN Environment Programme National Goodwill Ambassador for the Philippines, Antoinette Taus. Other panellists included Dir. Janet Armas from the Sustainable Livelihood Program of the Dept. of Social Welfare and Development; Dr. Saturnina Halos, Biotechnology Advisory Team Chair of the Dept. of Agriculture; Dr. Susan Mercado from the National Panel of Experts of the Climate Change Commission; Programme Officer Arlynn Aquino, Directorate-General for the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO); Ms. Cherrie Atilano, President and Founding Farmer of AGREA Philippines; and Ms. Ruth Honculada-Georget, National Social Protection Consultant of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Philippines.

#                           #                            #

The United Nations World Food Programme is the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate.  We are the world’s largest humanitarian organization, saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of climate change.

WFP in the Philippines re-established its presence in the country in 2006 at the request of the Government to support the ongoing peace process in the Mindanao region. WFP works closely with the government, other United Nations agencies, non-governmental organizations, and communities to improve long-term food security while assisting people and communities to build resilience and be better prepared for the consequences of disasters. CLICK HERE to read more.

For more information please contact:

Maitta Rizza Pugay, WFP/Manila, [email protected]

Jamie Santos-Sugay, WFP/Manila, [email protected]

Follow us on Twitter @wfp_media @WFP_Philippines

Follow us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/wfp.philippines

Related news releases

Government of philippines and wfp bolster emergency response capacities with advanced move vehicles, japan boosts support for filipino farmers and schoolchildren with us$5 million for farm-to-school meals, wfp and the opec fund enhance partnership on food security and nutrition in the philippines.

Advanced search

Philippines: CO2 Country Profile

• CO₂ and GHG Emissions
• Data explorer
• CO₂ emissions
• CO₂ by fuel
• GHG emissions
• Atmospheric concentrations
• Climate impacts

You can  download  our complete Our World in Data CO 2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions database.

Many of us want an overview of how our country is doing in reducing CO 2 and other greenhouse gas emissions. This page provides the data for your chosen country across all of the key metrics on this topic.

In the selection box above you can also add or remove additional countries and they will appear on all of the charts on this page. This allows you to compare specific countries you might be interested in, and measure progress against others.

The data will continue to update – often on an annual basis – with the latest global and country emissions estimates.

CO 2 emissions

• Per capita: how much CO 2 does the average person emit?
• What are the country’s annual CO 2 emissions?
• Year-on-year change: what is the percentage change in CO 2 emissions?
• Cumulative: how much CO 2 has it produced to date ?
• Consumption-based accounting : how do emissions compare when we adjust for trade?
• What share of global CO 2 emissions are emitted by the country?
• What share of global cumulative CO 2 has the country emitted?

Philippines: Per capita: how much CO 2 does the average person emit?

Related chart:.

How do per capita CO 2 emissions compare when we adjust for trade?

Annual emissions figures are often used to compare countries’ contribution to climate change. But this metric often reflects differences in population size across the world.

To understand the ‘footprint’ of the average person in a given country, this chart shows per capita emissions.

These figures reflect ‘production-based’ emissions, so do not correct for traded goods.

Philippines: What are the country’s annual CO 2 emissions?

This interactive chart shows how much carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is produced in a given year.

A few points to keep in mind when considering this data:

• These figures are based on ‘production’ or ‘territorial’ emissions (i.e. emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, or cement production within a country’s borders). It does not consider the emissions of traded goods (consumption-based emissions). You find consumption-based emissions later in this country profile.
• These figures look specifically at CO 2 emissions – not total greenhouse gas emissions. You find total, and other greenhouse gas emissions, later in this country profile.
• Annual emissions can be largely influenced by population size – we present the per capita figures above.

Philippines: Year-on-year change: what is the percentage change in CO 2 emissions?

What is the absolute change in CO 2 emissions each year?

This interactive chart shows the year-on-year growth in annual CO 2 emissions.

• A positive figure indicates that the emissions in a given year were higher than the previous year.
• A negative figure indicates that emissions were lower than the previous year.

Year-to-year changes in emissions can vary a lot – this can create a particularly ‘noisy’ time series.

Philippines: Cumulative: how much CO 2 has it produced to date ?

When we only look at emissions produced today, we fail to recognise historical responsibility for emissions in recent decades or centuries.

This interactive chart shows cumulative CO 2 emissions – the sum of emissions produced since 1751 to the given year. This allows us to understand how much of the total CO 2 emissions to date has been emitted by a given country.

Philippines: Consumption-based accounting : how do emissions compare when we adjust for trade?

Related charts:.

What share of domestic emissions are embedded in traded goods?

How do production- and trade-adjusted emissions compare?

When countries set targets, measure or compare CO 2 emissions, they tend to focus on production-based emissions – CO 2 emitted within a country’s own borders. However, this fails to capture emissions from traded goods – the CO 2 emitted in the production of goods elsewhere, which are later imported (or the opposite: emissions from goods that are exported).

We can estimate consumption-based CO 2 emissions by correcting for trade. These emissions are shown in the interactive chart. Note that the resolution of data needed to calculate this is not available for all countries.

→ We provide more detail on consumption-based emissions in our article ‘ How do CO2 emissions compare when we adjust for trade? ‘

Philippines: What share of global CO 2 emissions are emitted by the country?

Looking at a country’s annual emissions is useful, but it can be hard to put these numbers in context of the global total. Is 10 million tonnes of CO 2 large or small; what about 100 million; or 1 billion tonnes?

This interactive chart shows annual emissions as a percentage of the global total in a given year.

Philippines: What share of global cumulative CO 2 has the country emitted?

Just as with annual emissions, simply presenting cumulative CO 2 figures can be hard to contextualize. Has a given country’s contribution to the global total been large or small?

This chart shows the country’s cumulative emissions as a share of global cumulative emissions.

Coal, oil, gas, cement: how much does each contribute to CO 2 emissions?

• What share of CO 2 emissions are produced from different fuels?
• How are CO 2 emissions from different fuels changing?

Philippines: What share of CO 2 emissions are produced from different fuels?

CO 2 emissions are dominated by the burning of fossil fuels for energy production, and industrial production of materials such as cement.

What is the contribution of each fuel source to the country’s CO 2 emissions?

This interactive chart shows the breakdown of annual CO 2 emissions by source: either coal, oil, gas, cement production or gas flaring. This breakdown is strongly influenced by the energy mix of a given country, and changes as a country shifts to or from a given energy source.

How you can interact with this chart

• In these charts it is always possible to switch to any other country in the world by choosing Change Country in the bottom left corner.
• By unticking the ‘Relative’ box, you can switch to see the breakdown of emissions in absolute terms.

Philippines: How are CO 2 emissions from different fuels changing?

The chart above allows us to see the breakdown of CO 2 emissions by fuel type. But it makes it more difficult to see the absolute change in particular fuel sources over time.

This interactive chart shows the same data – CO 2 emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement and flaring – but as individual lines to see clearly how each is changing over time.

Other greenhouse gas emissions

• Total greenhouse gas emissions: how much does the average person emit? Where do emissions come from?
• Methane: how much does the average person emit? Where do emissions come from?
• Nitrous oxide: how much does the average person emit? Where do emissions come from?

In discussions on climate change, we tend to focus on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) – the most dominant greenhouse gas produced by the burning of fossil fuels, industrial production, and land use change.

But CO 2  is not the only greenhouse gas that is driving global climate change. There are a number of others – methane, nitrous oxide, and trace gases such as the group of ‘F-gases’ – which have contributed a significant amount of warming to date.

Here we look at total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the world, plus breakdowns of other major gases including methane and nitrous oxide.

Philippines: Total greenhouse gas emissions: how much does the average person emit? Where do emissions come from?

The charts above focused on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). But CO 2 is not the only greenhouse gas. Others, including methane and nitrous oxide, have also had a significant impact on global warming to date.

The first interactive chart shows per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This is measured as the sum of all greenhouse gases, and given by a metric called ‘carbon dioxide equivalents’.

‘Carbon dioxide equivalents’ try to correct for the fact that one unit (e.g. a tonne) of a given gas doesn’t have the same same impact on warming as another. We therefore multiply the emissions of each gas by its ‘global warming potential’ (GWP) value: this measures the amount of warming one tonne of that gas would create relative to one tonne of CO 2 .

The other interactive chart shows where these emissions come from: the contribution of each sector.

→ We provide more detail on total greenhouse gas emissions in our sub-page ‘ Greenhouse gas emissions ‘.

How much greenhouse gases do countries emit in total when we include land use change and forestry ?

How much greenhouse gases do countries emit when we exclude land use change and forestry ?

Where do its CO 2 emissions come from? See the breakdown by sector.

Philippines: Methane: how much does the average person emit? Where do emissions come from?

Methane (CH 4 ) is a strong greenhouse gas, mainly produced through agricultural activities (e.g. livestock and rice production), in addition to leakages from oil and gas production (called ‘fugitive emissions’).

This first interactive chart here shows per capita emissions of methane each year. This is measured in ‘carbon dioxide equivalents’.

→ We look at the breakdown of methane sources in our sub-page ‘ Emissions by sector ‘.

How much methane does each country contribute each year?

Philippines: Nitrous oxide: how much does the average person emit? Where do emissions come from?

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a strong greenhouse gas, that is mainly produced from agricultural activities (e.g. from the use of synthetic and organic fertilizers to grow crops).

This first interactive chart here shows per capita emissions of nitrous oxide each year. This is measured in ‘carbon dioxide equivalents’.

→ We look at the breakdown of nitrous oxide sources in our sub-page ‘ Emissions by sector ‘.

How much nitrous oxide does each country contribute in total each year?

Carbon and energy efficiency

• Energy intensity: how much energy does it use per unit of GDP?
• Carbon intensity: how much carbon does it emit per unit of energy?
• Has economic growth decoupled from CO 2 emissions?

Philippines: Energy intensity: how much energy does it use per unit of GDP?

Since energy is such a large contributor to CO 2 , reducing energy consumption can inevitably help to reduce emissions. However, some energy consumption is essential to human wellbeing and rising living standards.

Energy intensity can therefore be a useful metric to monitor. Energy intensity measures the amount of energy consumed per unit of gross domestic product. It effectively measures how efficiently a country uses energy to produce a given amount of economic output. A lower energy intensity means it needs less energy per unit of GDP.

This interactive chart shows energy intensity.

Two tips on how you can interact with this chart

• Add any other country to this chart: click on the Edit countries and regions button to compare with any other country.
• View this data on a world map: switch to a global map of energy intensity using the ‘MAP’ tab at the bottom of the chart.

Philippines: Carbon intensity: how much carbon does it emit per unit of energy?

Energy intensity – shown in the chart above – is one important metric to monitor whether countries are making progress in reducing emissions. The other key part of this equation is carbon intensity: the amount of CO 2 emitted per unit of energy.

We can reduce emissions by (1) using less energy; and/or (2) using lower-carbon energy.

This metric monitors the second option. As we transition our energy mix towards lower-carbon sources (such as renewables or nuclear energy), the amount of carbon we emit per unit of energy should fall.

This chart shows carbon intensity – measured in kilograms of CO 2 emitted per kilogram of oil equivalent consumed.

Philippines: Has economic growth decoupled from CO 2 emissions?

To reduce emissions and achieve increasing prosperity at the same time, we have to decouple economic growth from CO 2 emissions. Several countries have achieved this in recent years.

The chart here shows whether this country has achieved this by showing the change in GDP per capita, and annual per capita CO 2 emissions over time.

We show both production-based and consumption-based emissions (for countries where this data is available). This allows us to see whether the import of production from other countries – or the export to other countries – has affected this change in emissions.

The next chart shows the same metric, but without adjusting for population. It shows the change in total annual CO 2 emissions and GDP.

Our World in Data is free and accessible for everyone.

Help us do this work by making a donation.

Philippines

Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Explore the overview for a general context of how climate change is affecting Philippines.

• Climate Change Overview
• Country Summary

Climatology

• Trends & Variability
• Mean Projections (CMIP6)
• Extreme Events
• Historical Natural Hazards
• Sea Level Rise

This page presents Philippines's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. Information should be used to build a strong understanding of current climate conditions in order to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change. You can visualize data for the current climatology through spatial variation, the seasonal cycle, or as a time series. Analysis is available for both annual and seasonal data. Data presentation defaults to national-scale aggregation, however sub-national data aggregations can be accessed by clicking within a country, on a sub-national unit.  Other historical climatologies can be selected from the Time Period dropdown list. 

Observed, historical data is produced by the  Climatic Research Unit (CRU)  of University of East Anglia.  Data  is presented at a 0.5º x 0.5º (50km x 50km) resolution.

The Philippines has a humid equatorial climate characterized by high temperatures and heavy rainfall. Average annual rainfall is approximately 2,348 millimeters (mm), but this varies geographically, from 960 mm in southeast Mindanao to over 4,050 mm in central Luzon. Temperatures are generally high, particularly in the valleys and plains, averaging 27°C throughout the year. Humidity levels are high, averaging around 82% due to the warm moist trade winds that flow through the archipelago, as well as sea surface temperatures, a rich and vibrant vegetative cover and abundant rainfall. Rainfall is governed by the southwest monsoons in the summer months, and by the northeast monsoon and tropical cyclones in the winter. Convective rainfall is common due to the country’s mountainous terrain, interspersed with narrow coastal plains. The Philippines also experiences strong periodic droughts that are linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The Philippines’ hottest months are April and May, with the coldest months experienced during December, January and February. The mean annual temperature is 27.1°C, with a relatively low seasonal temperature variation of approximately 3°C. There is minimal spatial variation in temperatures across the country. Where temperature differences do exist, such as in Baguio City where the daily mean temperature is 19.6°C, elevation is significant factor. There is geographical variation in the distribution of precipitation: during June to September heavy rainfall is concentrated to the west of the country, whereas between October and March, heavy rainfall is predominantly found in the country’s eastern regions.

• VIEW BY MAP
• VIEW BY LIST

• International edition
• Australia edition
• Europe edition

Filipinos count cost of climate crisis as typhoons get ever more destructive

The Philippines adds little to global emissions but faces some of its worst effects in extreme weather. Climate justice is needed

• Help us support those on the frontline of the climate emergency
• Donate to our charity appeal here

A few days before Christmas, Super-typhoon Rai – known locally as Odette – ravaged the Philippines . The morning after the onslaught, on my way back to Iloilo City from San Jose, Antique, I could see the ocean still boiling; houses blown away and great trees knocked down, making roads impassable. The sights were terrifying.

Lost lives continue to climb two weeks on. Vast numbers of buildings were destroyed – from houses to schools; food crops lost to flooding. At first, I did not know what to feel – anger, helplessness? Later, I knew what I wanted: climate justice.

On average, 20 storms and typhoons hit the Philippines each year and they are growing progressively more destructive. The culprit is greenhouse-gas emissions from human activities. The Philippines contributes less than 0.4% to the climate crisis; the global north is responsible for 92%. The Philippines pays the price for problems produced in the north.

In 2019, the Philippines made a strong statement to the world when it sent 1,500 tonnes of illegally dumped rubbish back to Canada.

However, Cop26, heralded as the world’s last chance to avert disaster, was seen as a failure by many climate activists . Commitments were not delivered. The final agreement saw a watered-down stand against coal , and prioritised profits over people and the planet.

Despite the Philippines’ small part in the worsening climate crisis, the threat to the country is huge . Rising sea levels from global heating will submerge parts of the country, creating thousands of climate refugees. Drought and flooding will hit agricultural production and destroy ecosystems. The risk and intensity of health emergencies, such as dengue and diarrhoea, will increase.

The Philippine government romanticises the suffering of the affected communities to conceal inefficiency and inaction with its “Filipinos are resilient” rhetoric .

When my family and I lived in a slum above a river in Iloilo City, we would leave our shanty houses before a typhoon made a landfall and shelter in a nearby chapel. When the storm had passed, some of us would be grateful to see our houses still standing. Others would be saddened to see theirs blown to bits by the wind or taken by the waves. There was no resiliency here.

Families would have to start from scratch, rebuilding their homes, only to see them destroyed again by the next typhoon. We lived in fear and carried the trauma from the danger the calamities posed.

On 17 December, I learned that my cousin, a freshly graduated seafarer, was missing with at least 10 other crew members of the tugboat M/V Strong Trinity , after the typhoon hit the port city of Cebu. According to the owners, the boat had sought shelter, but the wind and waves were too strong and washed away the tugboat and those on board. The coastguard has found no trace of the vessel, so far.

Citizens were quick to point to the ill-preparedness of the government, saying it had not learned the lessons from Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, one of the strongest typhoons on record to hit land – despite the fact that this time round there was a system to disseminate information about the storm’s arrival through text messages, social media and on news channels.

However, the role of media has been curtailed in the country. The regional stations of the Philippines’ biggest broadcaster, ABS-CBN, which were on the frontline during previous natural disasters, have not been in service since 2020 due to what many see as a politically motivated denial of their franchise renewal .

Telecommunications were interrupted. Filipinos were left in the dark waiting for news. People created Facebook groups with updates on the hardest-hit areas, information on missing people, and appeals for help. Facebook news feeds were flooded with posts from those in need. People wandered the streets with signs saying they were hungry and thirsty. Many died of dehydration. Flooded cities have become ghost towns; houses have been buried by landslides.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council has declared a state of emergency in several cities and towns where power and water supplies are still cut off; more than 5.4 million people were affected . More than half a million have been displaced. Last week’s official figures put the death toll at 397 with 1,147 injured and 83 missing . There were more than 535,000 houses destroyed and €350m (£290m) of damage caused to agriculture and infrastructure. People from communities in “danger zones” are unable to return.

Despite years of such disasters, natural defences have not been protected. Dams have been built on ecologically important rivers; dolomite mining continues, and new coal-powered plants are still being built . A few days after the typhoon, a four-year ban on open-pit mining was lifted to help economic recovery , disregarding the contribution of mining to the typhoons and rainfall that are battering the economy in the first place.

The Philippines has elections in May, when Filipinos must choose a leader who has an unwavering will to tackle the climate crisis by demanding accountability from the global north and strengthening the country’s defences.

Poor countries and poor communities remain the victims of anthropogenic climate injustice. The process of ending the human activities responsible is weak and slow; there is only disaster risk-reduction management and mitigation in place. As long as the world does not address the root cause of this crisis, we will not be prepared for what is coming.

Donations can be made online by credit card, debit card or PayPal , or by phone on 0151 284 1126. We are unable to accept cheques.

Sign up for a different view with our Global Dispatch newsletter – a roundup of our top stories from around the world, recommended reads, and thoughts from our team on key development and human rights issues, delivered to your inbox every two weeks:

• Global development
• Philippines
• Climate crisis
• Extreme weather
• Asia Pacific
• Typhoon Haiyan

Most viewed

Climate Change Impacts on Philippine Communities: An Overview of the Current Literature and Policies

Introduction

The Philippines is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world. An island nation which is heavily exposed to extreme weather events, the Philippines has little adaptive capacity. This article will begin by exploring the current and anticipated climatic changes as based on the most recent report released by the International Panel for Climate Change in 2014. After this, the economy of the Philippines is discussed; the main industries of which are agriculture, mining, and services (including tourism, business process outsourcing, and remittances from overseas Filipino workers). The primary industries of the Philippines, namely agriculture and mining, have varying yet significant detrimental impacts on the environment, these are explored, as are the risks of both these industries and macro scale anticipated climate change impacts to society. After this, current or proposed policies to improve the status quo of the mining and agriculture sectors are explored and critiqued. Following this, there is a discussion of the groups in the Philippine society who are most vulnerable to climate change and adverse industry impacts. A larger exploration of lower economic groups, particularly agriculture-based households is undertaken. The impacts on these marginalized groups are contextualized as forms of violence and reviewed in line with the themes of sustainable development and positive peace.

Overview of the Philippines

Geography and climate.

The Philippines is an archipelago with over 7500 islands comprising approximately 30 million hectares, nestled between the Philippines Sea, the South China Sea, and the Celebes Sea. The islands of the Philippines are grouped into three regions: Mindanao (10.2 million hectares), Visayas (5.7 million hectares), and Luzon (14.1 million hectares) where the capital, Manila, is located. The Philippines is a collection of half-submerged mountains, which were pushed up as a result of the subduction zone of the collision of the Eurasian and the Philippine plates. This subduction zone makes the Philippines prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity. The climate is tropical, with an average humidity of 80% and an annual rainfall of 80-450cm. 1 Two of the regions, Luzon and Visayas, are affected by typhoons each year, which account for half of their annual rainfall.

Demographics

Of the 102.8 million people who live in the Philippines, 44.2% live in urban centers, while the remaining 55.8% live in rural areas. 2 According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the current per capita GDP is 12,430 Philippine Pesos, an increase of 6.7% over the previous year. 3 Poverty has also dropped to 21.6% over the past year with unemployment dropping to a historic low of 4.7%. However, underemployment is still steady and significant at 18%. Underemployment reflects the number of workers who are working but would like to work more hours than they receive. This high value reflects the prevalence of informality, workplace corruption, and other job-related concerns. 4 Poverty and underemployment are directly related to undernourishment, at a rate of 13.8% of the population. 5 These are projected to worsen with the increased income inequality. 6

Review of Climate Change and Projected Impacts

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) climate change is defined as the change in the usual weather found in a place; specifically, it refers to the levels of precipitation or expected temperature of a month or season. This is a long-term alteration in the expected climate which usually takes hundreds or even millions of years. 7 The basis for the review of climate change impacts is taken from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) which was released in 2014. The IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide unbiased and clear scientific research on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. 8

This review acknowledges climate change is a global phenomenon and one which affects all regions and sub-regions differently, however, it is outside the capacity of this paper to review the global impacts of climate change, the scope of this paper is limited to South-East Asia, most particularly to the Philippines. This section aims to discuss only the changes in climate resulting from global increases of atmospheric carbon. Climate change is anticipated to have many impacts on the status quo of the Philippines.

Temperature rise

As it stands, an increase of more than 3°C is expected throughout Southeast Asia. 9 This temperature increase will be reflected in ocean temperatures, particularly at the surface. 10 Not only will the temperature increase affect the oceans, but it will also affect terrestrial ecosystems in several ways. Temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in fire frequency in terrestrial ecosystems. 11 It is not fully understood how this relationship works, however analysis of the past 21,000 years shows there is a positive relationship between temperature and fire frequency, more so than any other parameter. In addition to increased fire frequency risks, precipitation patterns will continue to be heavily impacted by the increased temperatures.

Precipitation

Overall, rainfall has only increased by 22mm per decade over Southeast Asia, which is not a significant increase; however the regularity of the rainfall has altered with 10mm of the measured increase being attributed to extreme rain days. This increase is predicted to continue over the coming decades. 12 The decreased regularity of precipitation has a two-fold consequence; firstly, longer and more intensive drought periods, and secondly, heavier rainfall once the droughts end. One part of the altered precipitation pattern is the increased level of precipitation occurring with tropical cyclones. Aside from the increased rainfall with each cyclone, there is less confidence in the knowledge surrounding the increase in frequency or intensity of these cyclones. Another weather pattern where precipitation will play a role is the monsoon season. Eighty-five percent of future projections show an increase in mean precipitation during monsoons, while more than 95% show an increase in heavy precipitation events. 13

Fresh Water

Although the parameters to measure fresh water quality and quantity are heavily influenced by human activities, there is evidence to believe that climate change impacts not only the quantity of freshwater but also the quality. Delpla et al 14 showed that warming and extreme events were likely to modify the physical-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters of the water. 15 The physico-chemical parameters include measurements such as temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved solids. Micropollutants are bioactive, non-biodegradable substances such as radioactive or biologically harmful metals (including mercury, lead, and arsenic), pesticides, or pharmaceuticals, and biological parameters include the presence and volume of species such as algae and phytoplankton as well other microorganisms. Higher air temperatures increase evapotranspiration; when this occurs in tandem with increased frequency and intensity of droughts, then surface water quantity will be decreased. This can then increase the concentration of many of the physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants, and biological parameters listed above.

As previously mentioned, the ocean is anticipated to increase in temperature, particularly at the surface. 16 The current state of warming has been implicated in the northward expansion of tropical and subtropical macroalgae and toxic phytoplankton. 17 This northward shift of species is anticipated to alter the marine ecosystems and provide new challenges for the species which have historically been present in and around the Philippines. With current predictions, the increased temperature combined with ocean acidification is expected to result in significant declines in coral-dominated reefs and other calcified marine species, such as algae, molluscs, and larval echinoderms. 18 Current trends in sea level rise are expected to be exceeded by the future predictions. 19 This, in combination with cyclone intensification, will likely increase coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion into surface and groundwaters. 20 Unless they are provided with enough fresh sediment or are allowed to move inland, beaches, mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrass beds will decline also, and these declines will exacerbate wave damage. 21 , 22 , 23 , 24

Philippine Industries: Agriculture

Agriculture – including forestry, fishing, and hunting – is one of the biggest sectors of the Philippine economy, accounting for 9.7% of the GDP 25 and employing 28% of the total workforce. The sizes of the agricultural ventures vary drastically, including a significant number of subsistence farmers as represented by the large proportion of the population who live rurally, and commercial ventures from multinational corporations. The large commercial agriculture ventures hold significant swathes of land and grow vast quantities of produce. In the Philippines the main crops are sugar, rice, and coconuts, each year producing hundreds of thousands of tons of each for export. 26 There is a drastic difference between the commercial ventures and the subsistence farmers in terms of yield, intensity of farming practice, and exports. It should be noted that fishing and farming are the two sectors with the highest incidences of poverty, 27 which I will discuss in more depth below.

Services are a highly profitable and diverse sector for the Philippines, and one which has expanded greatly over the past few years. Tourism is included in the services sector and provided 8.6% of the nation’s GDP in 2016, up 0.4% from the previous year. 28 Another major part of the services sector is the rapidly growing business process outsourcing, where call centers and other such infrastructure are exported to places like the Philippines to exploit their lower labor costs. In the Philippines, this employs over 1.3 million people. A last significant part of the services industry –which isn’t always accounted for but is nevertheless a crucial source of income for many families – are the remittances sent home from overseas Filipino workers (OFW). In the year 2016 there were 2.2 million OFW spread globally working in a large variety of roles. The remittances these workers returned to the Philippine economy added 146,029 million Philippine pesos, or roughly USD$2.78 billion in the year 2016. 29

There is great variety of industries in the Philippines, including vast manufacturing outputs. These range from one of the largest shipbuilding industries in the world, to a growing automotive and aerospace production. Construction is also a major employer as the country develops its economy and its population continues to grow, requiring more infrastructure. One of the main and more controversial industries of the Philippines is the mining and extraction industry. The Philippines has significant reserves of gold, nickel, copper, chromite, silver, coal, sulphur, and gypsum. While there has been significant debate over the legality of overseas mine ownership and mining procedures (as will be discussed later) the industry has continued to grow over the past year. The main contributors to the 8.8% expansion were stone quarrying, clay, and sandpits which grew by 17.7%, gold which grew by 16.5%, and crude oil, natural gas and condensate which grew by 7.4%. 30

Impacts of Industries on Environment

The impacts of many industries on the local environment make detecting and disentangling the impacts of climate change from the surrounding pressures very challenging, which is also reflected in the literature. 31

Many industries require access to fresh water, as a result, overexploitation of groundwater systems can result in land subsidence. When this is combined with the climate change driven impacts of coastal inundation and sea level rise, there is increased risks of worsened water quality. 32 Mining, in particular, poses a significant risk of water contamination. Mine tailings – the excess earth and chemicals used to obtain the target metal – are often permanently stored in large lakes or used to create structures such as dam walls and piers. However, if the tailings are not treated or sealed correctly, poisonous contaminants can leachate out and pollute the water surrounding them. As mining is such a prevalent industry in the Philippines, and with choices being made to economize the handling of these tailings (often at the expense of long-lasting safety), there have been examples of significant water contamination, including from the Palawan Quicksilver mine, 33 along the Naboc River area near Mindanao, 34 and in the water supplies to the villages of Sta. Lourdes and Tagburos. 35

Deforestation

Between 1990 and 2005, the Philippines lost a third of its primary forest cover. 36 This was due to a number of factors, one of which is the conversion of forest lands to promote growth and development. This is combined with high levels of poverty and landlessness in rural and urban populations, causing poorer families to move into less farmable uplands. This poverty is compounded by uncertain land rights, resulting in lack of long term investment in land and over-exploitation of its resources for short-term economic benefits. There is also a lack of policy and improper pricing of the land which results in poorly managed forestry practises, resulting in high capital intensity, low employment generation, and low investments in forest regeneration and protection.

There is an alarming feedback from forest cover to rainfall. Of course, without rain there is very little sustainable agriculture, including forestry. However, when forest cover is removed, it has been anticipated that rainfall patterns will also significantly change. 37 Consider that 25-56% of all rainfall in highly forested regions can be recycled in the ecosystem as tropical trees extract water from the soil and, through evapotranspiration, release it into the atmosphere, thus inducing rainfall. With the high rates of deforestation in the Philippines, we can assume that historic rainfall patterns will be significantly different in the future, not only through the broader forces of climate change, but also on a micro scale as a result of deforestation.

Land degradation

According to a report prepared by the Food and Agriculture Organization in 1999, approximately 75% of land in the Philippines is severely or very severely degraded. Due to the age of the report, significant changes have occurred since its release; but in many cases, soil degradation has worsened. Land degradation is associated with accelerated soil erosion, siltation of irrigation systems, flooding, and water pollution. Land effects are intricately linked with the previously discussed issues of fresh water and deforestation. Land degradation can occur through two main pathways: firstly is erosion, the removal of soil. Erosion occurs naturally through wind and water moving particles of soil, but is accelerated through human activity, particularly deforestation. Steeper lands are more erosion prone than lowlands, hence, as deforestation of the uplands became so prevalent in the last few decades, steep slope erosion is a serious issue. 38 Official estimates show a slow rise of erosion from 340 million t/year in the late 1980’s to nearly 350 million t/year in the early 2000’s.

The second type of land degradation is in the changes to the chemical, biological and physical parameters of the soil, such as nutrient loss, salinization, acidification, and compaction. Nutrients leave the soil either through adherence to water and traveling over the surface or gravitating down through the soil to water bodies below. This consequently makes nutrient loss a relative issue; nutrients tend to accumulate elsewhere, causing downstream damage, either through blocking water pathways with sediment build up, or adding too many nutrients that promote algae growth and polluting water bodies. Through continuous cropping, extensive submergence, and high chemical usage, the production of one crop in particular – rice – has led to declined organic matter content, nutrient supply capacity, nutrient imbalance, water logging, soil salinity and alkalinity and forming of hardpans at shallow depths. 39 These impacts combined have led to a slowdown of overall yield growth..

Risks to Society

The impacts of climate change and industry will likely manifest themselves through impacts on water resources, agriculture, coastal areas, resource dependent livelihoods, and urban settlements and infrastructure. These will have implications for human health and well-being. This section will explore food security, disease prevalence, and income and settlements. There are many links and feedback loops between each of these concepts, thus making a clear discussion a challenge. A lack of food security will lead to increased vulnerability to disease, as malnutrition reduces the immune system’s ability to resist infection and viruses. Poor housing can also increase vulnerability to disease, through exposure to cold, damp, or unsanitary living conditions. All three of these interacting factors are affected by income, as without sufficient funds, households cannot afford adequate nutrition, medicine, or quality housing.

Food Security

As temperature rises, the growth period of many crops – including rice – is shortened. It is already shown that current temperature in parts of Asia – including the Philippines – are reaching critical levels during the susceptible stages of the rice plant. 40 Extreme weather events have significant destructive capacity, which when combined with increased precipitation events lead to higher flood risks, yields could drastically fall. 41 Furthermore, with increased sea level rise, many coastal areas will lose agricultural lands due to submersion or increased salinization from a rising salt water table.

Added to the risks of climate change are those from industry. Unsustainable agricultural practices leading to land degradation have been previously discussed, but some industries also have negative impacts on the environment of other industries, one of which is mining. As previously mentioned, tailings from mines can leach out and pollute water sources. These water sources can be used for a number of purposes, including agriculture. The case of the Naboc River in Mindanao is one such example. Here, water from the river is being used to irrigate rice fields. This combined with high consumption levels of local fish (from the same polluted river) has led to high levels of mercury exposure in the population, resulting in 38% of the local inhabitants being classified as mercury intoxicated. 42 Further, tailings from the Palawan Mine, used to construct a jetty into Honda Bay, have leached out into the water, creating another food source pathway of mercury to humans which is particularly pertinent in the high-fish-consuming population. The last example is in the towns of Sta Lourdes and Tagburos, where a health crisis has been declared and residents exposed to mercury through similar pathways as those previously discussed are being evacuated and receiving medical treatment.. These are just three examples with definitive literature; there are many more similar situations of contamination from mine tailings which further threaten food security in the Philippines.

Epidemics are often reported after floods and storms, both of which are set to increase as a result of climate change and unsustainable land clearing and farming practise, as previously discussed. These epidemics can come as a result of decreased drinking water quality, amongst other reasons. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority the main source of drinking water in the Philippines is bottled water with 27.2%, and cooking water sourced from community water systems with 43.4%. 43 While it may be assumed that bottled water is safe and unaffected in quality by floods or storms, the population which does not have access to this security is at risk from reduced water quality. Further contributing causes of epidemics after floods are mosquito proliferation and exposure to rodent-borne pathogens. 44

There are also links between heat and human health, showing that high temperatures subsequently increase mortality, particularly in the elderly and people with cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. 45 In addition to heat, droughts also have health impacts. Increased heat and drought frequency, as previously discussed, are the primary causes of increased frequency of wildfires, which in turn increase incidences of smoke exposure. Drought can also impact agriculture, as mentioned above, threatening food security and having further renders people susceptible to disease. 46

As previously mentioned, floods and storms may increase mosquito proliferation and exposure to rodent-borne pathogens. We can anticipate that increased temperatures will also affect vector-borne pathogens. This could be through shorter vectors life-cycles and extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in larger vector population sizes. This would enhance the spread of disease between the vector species and humans. One such example is that of dengue fever, which has a time-lagged positive correlation with increased temperature and rainfall. 47 Among all the impacts anticipated with climate change, the broadest impact on human health is the traumatic psychological effect these changes will have. Many mental disorders as well as post-traumatic stress syndrome have been observed in disaster-prone areas. 48

Income and Settlements

The Philippines is a country of rapid development and urbanization. However, more than half of its inhabitants still live rurally and still suffer disproportionate rates of poverty. 49 It is expected that impacts of environmental degradation and climate change will impact those below the poverty line with more vigor than those above it. In the national economy, agriculture is anticipated to be a key driver of growth over the coming years. Southeast Asia is the third poorest region (in regard to human development indicators) after sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. 50 Considering its current situation, with anticipated global increase in food prices for staples such as rice, the Philippines stands a chance to improve its economy if it can manage the negative climatic impacts anticipated for the agricultural industry. 51

Many settlements in the Philippines are in low elevation coastal areas which are particularly vulnerable to climate change hazards, such as sea level rises, storm surges, and typhoons. One group, in particular, is those living in peri-urban areas who face particular risks. These peri-urban areas are often of lower socioeconomic standing, which consequently increases inhabitants’ risks regarding food security, but also increased land title insecurity and price pressures. Secondly, peri-urban areas often serve as sinks for urban wastes, holding landfills and sewage treatment facilities which can pose local biophysical risks. Lastly, as they are outside of the inner-urban area, peri-urban areas are often not included in disaster risk management planning, even though they will most likely suffer just as much as inner-urban areas. 52

The risks of extreme weather events to industries are multi-faceted. Particularly regarding infrastructure, climate change poses many direct and indirect challenges to industrial production and enterprise. There is no doubt that climate change will deteriorate infrastructure, which can disrupt basic services such as water supply, sanitation, energy provision, and transportation systems, which can lead to mass migrations. 53 With increased frequency and intensity of cyclones and other extreme weather events, this can create an unsustainable cost for a developing economy. Over the past four years, climate-induced disasters have cost the Philippine economy 0.3% of its GDP. 54 This is anticipated to increase up to 2.2-5.7% of the GDP by the year 2100. 55 Furthermore, climate change can also exacerbate current socioeconomic and political disparities and add to the vulnerability of the Philippine people. 56

Current Policies on most Environmentally Damaging Industries

In 2016, the previous environmental secretary of the Philippines, Regina Lopez, spearheaded an environmental audit of the mines in the Philippines, finding “serious environmental violations” at 23 of the 41 operating mines. 57 This audit resulted in a “ban of mining” which prevented new mining ventures. 58 Mining contributes less than 1% of the countries GDP; 59 , 60 however, it also produces 8% of the world’s supply of nickel, and 97% of China’s supply, the decrease of which could result in serious international consequences. 61 Appeals have already been made to lift the ban and release Lopez’s audit for transparency. 62 , 63 , 64 This international pressure could damage the ability of the Philippine administration to make clear and logical policies which consider both the economic and employment benefits of mining for the people of the Philippines, but also consider the longevity of the environment and any other economically beneficial alternative land uses.

Recently, the Duterte administration signed the Canadian Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM) initiative. This program was developed to facilitate the extraction of minerals, metals and energy products in the most socially, economically, and environmentally responsible way. 65 There are three core pillars which uplift this program: accountability, transparency, and credibility. Accountability is achieved through regular assessments at the facility level where the mining takes place, providing local communities with accurate and honest knowledge as to the health of the mine. Members of the TSM provide progress reports, measuring 23 set indicators; this is done annually and is audited every three years. These results are publicly available, thus providing transparency. The last pillar, credibility, is fostered through ongoing consultation with a national Community of Interest Advisory Panel, which is a multi-stakeholder group comprising aboriginal groups, community leaders, environmental and social NGOs, and labor and financial organizations. There are also members of the Mining Association of Canada board to provide a mining industry perspective. 66 There are still issues to resolve – including the open pit ban – before any growth can be expected from the industry. 67 Duterte said that while he would not lift the ban on new ventures, he would give current firms time to adapt to less environmentally harmful practices as opposed to enforcing their immediate closure. 68

In early 2018, the new secretary for the environment, Roy Cimatu, visited one of the largest tourist destinations in the Philippines. During this visit he witnessed significant and widespread environmental violations, 69 predominantly amongst the locally owned and run hostels and housing for migrants who work in the more established and well-endowed global hotel-chains. 70 This is mainly due to the well-financed position of many global chains who can ensure their facilities connect to water treatment systems and meet the requirements of the law. It should be noted, however, that while enforcing strict environmental security is of utmost importance to ensure the self-sustainability of local populations, it should not be done with disregard. Not only does the hard-line approach hamstring productivity and potentially frighten future overseas investors, in regard to both the tourism example and the previous open-pit mining ban, it also has significant repercussions for employment. Households who have migrated for work, such as in Boracay, or who are solely dependent on one industry, will face significant losses to livelihood in the event of a hard-line indefinite closure.

Agriculture

The primary goal of the agriculture policy in the Philippines is to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production, in the hope that it will effectively combat food insecurity and poverty through a stable food supply at an affordable cost. 71 The interference of the government in the agriculture industry has ebbed and flowed over the past few decades. The level of intervention was particularly heavy in the 1970s and ‘80s before easing off to allow increased private sector control until the turn of the millennium. 72 In the early 2000s Philippine agriculture refocused on rice, and there was a subsequent increase in government subsidies. This was more pertinent after the 2008 global food crisis, which further strengthened the drive for self-sufficiency in rice. 73 There were many suggested pathways to achieving this self-sufficiency, three of which will be discussed in more depth.

Traditionally, subsidizing input costs has been the main instrument in achieving self-sufficiency in the Philippines. 74 This includes preferential tax policies exempting agricultural enterprises from import duties on agricultural equipment and machinery. Furthermore, the government subsidizes ongoing and recurring inputs such as seeds and fertilizers. More recently, these subsidies have been tailored to increase planting of hybrid rice strains, with varying success. Many of these seeds do not produce seeds of their own, so farmers are required to repurchase stock every year, unlike traditional inbred varieties. This combined with often a heightened fertilizer requirement, resulted in a low uptake of the new technology. 75

Since the turn of the millennium, there has been increased pressure to provide general services to the whole industry. These include investment into an extensive irrigation network, primarily to benefit rice farmers. A further priority intervention is the construction and maintenance of a road network, better connecting farms to markets. This increases agricultural productivity and reduces post-harvest losses. To further future agriculture productivity, the Philippine government invests substantially in research and development. This research should pass through local level government, with reinvestment by the government. 76

The most powerful agricultural policy instrument used by the Philippines government to move towards rice self-sufficiency is price supports. These measures are placed mainly on rice and sugar; they include a support price, release price, government procurement and import restrictions. Government procurement stabilizes consumer price levels through buffer stocks, ensuring adequate and continuous supply. 77 Import restrictions regulate foreign trade, particularly on the import of rice. While it is crucial for self-sufficient industry not to import more rice than they produce, this is proving to be detrimental in the case of the Philippines. Self-sufficiency requires gross yield to match or exceed the requirement of the population. As the Philippines has undergone sustained population growth, particularly in recent times, in combination with decreased land availability and land productivity, the result is a significant gap between what is produced and what is required. In tandem with high import tariffs on rice, prices go up, resulting in recent increases in malnutrition and poverty.

The budgetary transfers to subsidize agriculture from the government are five times higher than those of other regional countries. 78 This inefficiency is made clearer when comparing percentages of the total; employment in agriculture is almost three times the GDP produced by agriculture. This low labor productivity is one of the reasons explaining the low incomes of agriculture-dependent households. 79 Considering that more than 60% of poor Filipino households’ income is spent on food, 80 low labor productivity rates are not financially sustainable. This seems to have started a reduction of the laboring population in agriculture. This movement from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors has provided overall economic growth. The movement of labor from low productivity to high productivity has increased incomes for families through the diversification of income sources. Furthermore, it has also raised the wage rate of agricultural labor as the supply shrinks, and reduced pressures on land and water availability. 81 However, this is not spread in a uniform manner as will be discussed below.

Some of the government’s agricultural policy instruments bring hope to the struggling sector, such as subsidized input costs and improved general services. However, as I have discussed, there is still real and significant water contamination from the mining industry, which has the potential to continue and worsen. While the government has invested in irrigation systems to stabilize and increase crop yields, these funds would be better invested in ensuring that the water used for irrigation is not contaminated. There is still positivity in the criticism of the general services investments; any investment to improve road connectivity will decrease vulnerability. Having clear and easy access between towns and cities will not only reduce post-harvest losses of crops as mentioned above, it will also increase accessibility to rural communities in the event of increasingly frequent natural disasters. Having this increased accessibility will allow emergency services and humanitarian aid into townships further afield, which would previously have been cut off.

Reducing input costs can also have detrimental impacts to the longevity of the agricultural sector. Tapering these subsidies to only a few crops, such as rice and sugarcane, will restrict diversity and increase vulnerability. Similar to the concept of having all one’s eggs in one basket, having a lack of diversity in the agricultural sector reduces resiliency to crop specific diseases or market price fluctuations, particularly for rice, which is becoming dangerously vulnerable in to increased temperature and reduced precipitation during its growth period. Moreover, reducing input costs into agriculture can increase intensification. While this intensification is necessary in the name of self-sufficiency, it is detrimental long term, as it often reduces land productivity, stripping the soil of nutrients and its necessary micro biodiversity. One suggestion, put forward by the OECD director of trade and agriculture, is to move away from the concept of self-sufficiency to move towards increased productivity and profitability in a way which is environmentally sustainable. 82

Vulnerable Groups

The current and predicted state of the environment can be expected to have disproportionate repercussions for marginalized groups in society. In addition, research has shown an exacerbation in gender inequality. Chandra et al have explored the impacts of climate change and conflict on rural women in the wider Mindanao area 83 finding that climate change and conflict have been shown to disadvantage women to greater rates than men. According to Chandra women are more likely to farm smaller plots of land, work shorter hours, or limit their farming to cash crops. 84 Additionally, adult women frequently sacrifice their own food to ensure their children or the elderly in their care eat enough first – worsening food insecurity. Furthermore, should abandonment of the farm prove necessary – which is increasingly common – women tend to find work more easily in urban centers than men. 85 This can also lead to increased risk of sex trafficking. 86 , 87

A group that is similarly vulnerable to climate change and adverse industry impacts is indigenous peoples. The UN Economic and Social council released a report in 2003 exploring human rights and indigenous issues occurring in the Philippines. 88 This report detailed many issues concerning resource management and sustainable development, poverty, and militarization. One case which is referred to throughout the report is that of the Bugkalot indigenous people who have been fighting for their rights over the OceanaGold Corporation and Didipio mine. Although the Bugkalot elected anti-mining parliamentary members and local councils, the military systematically raided the townships of the Bugkalot, using tactics of torture, harassment, and grave coercion. 89 The indigenous people, joining forces with local peasants, still work towards closing the mine. A few years ago, the Didipio Earth Savers Multi-purpose association successfully rolled back some of the mining operations in Nueva Viscaya. 90 However, the OceanaGold mine is still operating and last year won the ASEAN award for best practices in mineral processing, citing community investment as a main bonus. 91 There should be serious concerns raised when a transnational corporation, such as Oceana Gold, has the political power to manipulate the military to act against the people. Looking forward, similar concerns should be raised with the open-pit mining ban regarding the ability of the Philippine administration to withstand heavy pressure from the appeals that have already begun. Not only did the indigenous group suffer land losses, they also suffered the political corruption of having their elected officials ignored and having the military turn against them. Though this is only one example, generally indigenous communities are more vulnerable to climate change. As will be discussed shortly, the more reliant a community is on natural resources, the more susceptible they are to the negative impacts on the degradation of those resources. As many indigenous communities live wholly within the capacities of their environment, they witness the changes firsthand and feel them more intensely.

The largest and most widespread vulnerable group are those lowest in economic status, including women and indigenous groups. Currently the most poverty-stricken group in the Philippines are the rural poor whose livelihoods depend almost entirely on subsistence agriculture, as previously discussed. The low economic capacity of this group makes them the most vulnerable group for a number of reasons. During extreme weather events, economically marginalized families are not able to escape, do not have food supplies saved up, nor are they able to afford medicine should an epidemic follow an extreme weather event. For the predominantly agriculture-reliant families from the poorest decile, the low-labor productivity of agriculture, and difficult economic policies enforced to achieve rice self-sufficiency are partially the cause of their plight. While the open-pit ban and any developments under the TSM initiative will hopefully stem the ongoing resource degradation, any mining venture has the risk of going wrong and causing disastrous and often irreversible impacts. Those communities who are most dependent on these natural resources are the most vulnerable to their change, also do not have the economic capacity to withstand or financially absorb any detrimental impacts. Further, these communities often do not have expendable income for medication, or treatment of the contamination, which prolongs and exacerbates their suffering. For example, leachate from tailings with mercury and other physical-chemical pollutants has already been linked to contamination and intoxication of local populations.

Many of the current or suggested policies for some of the most environmentally damaging industries of the Philippines have disproportionate consequences for marginalized groups of society. This disproportionality represents violence, under Galtung’s definitions. 92 Violence can be direct from one individual to another, such as from a soldier to an indigenous villager who is protesting the illegal mining in their homeland. Structural violence, as Galtung defines it, is the violence exerted by one group upon another, such as the contamination of water from poor mining practice which results in mercury intoxication in significant numbers in a village. This is violence committed by both the mining companies who failed to ensure their practices were safe, and the government, who failed to enforce safe practices on the company to protect their citizens. Galtung defines cultural violence as the parts of society which allow the previous two violences – direct and structural – to continue. This could be due to pressure from transnational mining corporations, or the economic benefits of cutting corners, which make society and government blind to the suffering of a marginalized group.

The problems faced by communities in the Philippines – be they land seizures, water contamination, increased malnutrition, mercury intoxication, sea level rise, or sex trafficking – have complex intersections and interactions. This means that dealing with an issue using an isolated and symptomatic approach cannot result in long term solutions; a systematic approach is required. Here is where the concept of sustainable development must be explicitly discussed. The Brundtland Commission 93 defines sustainable development as that which improves people’s life-enabling habits to meet needs in the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. In this context it is only when economic security, ecological integrity, and social equality intersect can sustainable development be achieved. 94 With this in mind, human well-being is essential in combating environmental degradation, or adapting to adverse climatic changes. This is because poverty is both a cause and an effect of environmental degradation. As has been illustrated previously, negative impacts on the environment – whether caused directly by poorly managed industries or by macro climatic changes – have equally adverse consequences for society. The environment is the basis of our existence, and without nature’s capacity for regeneration or waste absorption, we would not be able to survive; this is most pertinent for those with a more direct interaction with the environment, and those with higher levels of poverty.

Ecological integrity is a critical component of sustainability and a requirement for poverty reduction. Without it, positive peace cannot be achieved. Positive peace, as defined by Harris 95 is defined as peace which is not only an absence of any of Galtung’s 96 three types of violence; it is also social justice and ecological sustainability. Hence, a lack of ecological sustainability results in risks that will consequently lead to more explicit and widespread violence and conflict. Homer-Dixon 97 links environmental degradation to increased risks of conflict. This takes an indirect pathway through economic struggles as a result of decreased primary industry capacity. Rural economic struggles result in migration to urban centers, increased social tensions and a greater risk of conflict. The situation in the Philippines is not too dissimilar from the theoretical pathway observed by Homer-Dixon. 98

In the Philippines, resource degradation, such as reduced water quality, and damage to crops from increased extreme weather events have led to a decrease in agricultural yield. This has led to migration to urban centers, as previously discussed, and has consequential impacts on increased sex trafficking and other horrifying realities. At this point, many non-agriculture sectors, such as tourism, business process outsourcing, and remittances from overseas Filipino workers, provide welcome opportunity and change for those who are currently most affected by the degradation of the environment. This helps struggling newly urban migrants and reduces the risk of conflict. However, Jasparro and Taylor 99 have theorized how the anticipated climate changes occurring in Southeast Asia will reduce state capacity and human security to the point where states may fail and produce non-state threats and conflicts. This, they suggested, would be a result of marginalized groups resorting to violence, warfare, and raiding in order to cope with increased environmental and climatic pressures.

There  is one question left to consider though: is it too late and is it enough? It would seem as though the national administration of the Philippines is implementing policies of varying successes in order to address the poverty of a significant portion of the population, and to develop in a way that the country is ready and capable of adapting to climate change. However, current measures may prove to make the agriculture sector, and society at large, more vulnerable to climate change. Furthermore, by restricting imports of food to create a facade of self-sufficiency, the Philippine administration is effectively attempting to fudge the numbers, and by doing so, increasing malnutrition and food insecurity for a significant number of their most vulnerable citizens.

Retroactively acknowledging and addressing the long-term damage done to the environment from industries such as mining and tourism, may not be enough to combat the violence suffered by the local communities. Furthermore, however gallant and admirable the new goals may be, it is questionable as to whether they will withstand global pressure, and whether the intricately linked needs of the poor and the environment can be prioritized over the ability to make easy money. If this proves unsuccessful, and the previous rate of mining and subsequent degradation resumes, the combined impacts on the rural poor may be too much. Not only this, but the impacts suffered through a hard-line approach to violations of environmental regulations will have a greater impact on lower socioeconomic households who rely on income from work in mining or tourism.

Perhaps there can be another approach to restorative relationships between government, local communities, and many of the transnational corporations who provide significant sources of income. The Commission on Human Rights for the Republic of the Philippines (CHR) has begun an inquiry into climate change within the human rights framework, with a particular emphasis on “carbon majors” and their potential responsibility in contributing to climate change and its impacts on the rights of people in the Philippines. 100 These “carbon majors” are non-state entities which are transnational producers of oil, natural gas, coal, and cement. The first hearing began in late March 2018, the inquiry will continue throughout the year and draw on community dialogues and experts from both scientific and human rights disciplines. 101 The aim of this inquiry is to improve measures to protect and promote human rights in the Philippines in an era or climatic changes, it also seeks to determine the liability of companies which have had a notable contribution to climate change. 102 103  While the interwoven nature of climate change and industry may prove a challenge for this inquiry, its goals are admirable and should provide intensely beneficial recommendations for community, government policy, and corporations. As the CHR is an independent body, any recommendations should consider the implications for the environment as well as local employment and income reliance.

Due to its geography of being an exposed archipelago, the Philippines is incredibly vulnerable to projected climate change impacts. Mining and agriculture play an important role in the health of the environment and when combined with the expected impacts of climate change, provide the Philippines with significant risks, including food insecurity, increased prevalence of disease, and income and settlement vulnerability. The ability for local communities to be resilient to these changes and impacts are both equipped and hindered by different industry-specific government policies. The detrimental effect of climate change and industry impacts on the environment culminate and combine to exacerbate marginalized groups vulnerability. This vulnerability is reconceptualized within the scope of this paper in Galtung’s forms of violence. This violence poses further threats for the attainment of positive peace and sustainable development.  

Bibliography

Anda, Redempto. “Gov’t study confirms widespread mercury poisoning in 2 villages in Puerto Princesa City.” Inquirer.net, June 7, 2017.

Appleton, James, Jason Weeks, J. Calvez, and C. Beinhoffd. “Impacts of mercury contaminated mining waste on soil quality, crops, bivalves, and fish in the Naboc River area, Mindanao, Philippines.” Sciences of the Total Environment 354, no 2-3 (2006): 198-211.

Aragao, Leoc. “Environmental science: the rainforest’s water pump.” Nature 489 (2012): 217-218.

ASEAN. “Best Practice on sustainable mineral development in ASEAN.”  https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Best-Practices-on-Sustainab...

Asia Development Bank. “Eradicating poverty and promoting prosperity among a changing Asia-Pacific.” https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/235276/eradicating-p...

Badayos, R.B., and F. C. Calalo. “Farm sustainability and organic farming.” In Securing Rice, Reducing Poverty: Challenges and Policy Directions. SEARCA, College, Laguna, 2007.

Briones, Roehlano. “The Philippines Country Environmental Analysis: Land Degradation and Rehabilitation in the Philippines.” 2009: The World Bank. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0287/a4685653ea136d9673ae17ff2e8dcda8c5...

Contreras, Antonio. “Blood and money in the sand: The tragic story of the Atis of Boracay.” The Manila times. February 27, 2018. http://www.manilatimes.net/blood-money-sand-tragic-story-atis-boracay/38...

Contreras, Antonio. “Blood and money in the sand: The class dimension of Boracay environmental disaster.” The Manila Times . March 1, 2018. http://www.manilatimes.net/blood-money-sand-class-dimension-boracay-envi...

Chandra, Alvin, Karen E McNamara, Paul Dargusch, Ana Maria Caspe, and Dante Dalabajan. 2017. “Gendered Vulnerabilities of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in Conflict-Prone Areas: A Case Study from Mindanao, Philippines.” Journal of Rural Studies 50: 45–59. doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.12.011.

CHR, “PHL at the Forefront of seeking climate justice with CHR’s landmark inquiry on the effects of climate change to human rights.” 2018. http://chr.gov.ph/phl-at-the-forefront-of-seeking-climate-justice/

CHR, “CHR to conduct first hearing investigating possible contribution of carbon to climate change and its impacts on human rights.” 2018. http://chr.gov.ph/chr-to-conduct-first-hearing-investigating-possible-co...

Church, John, Peter Clark, David Bahr, Jason Box, David Bromwich, Mark Carson, William Collins, et al. “Sea Level Change.” In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 1137–1217. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2013. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL...

Collins, Matthew, Reto Knutti, Julie Arblaster, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Thierry Fichefet, Pierre Friedlingstein, Xuejie Gao, et al. “Long-Term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility.” In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of the Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment of Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2013. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf

Cororaton, Caesar B., and Erwin L. Corong. “Philippine Agriculture and Food Policy: Implications for poverty and income distribution.” International Food Policy Research Institute, Research Report 161. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/55512

Daniau, A.-L., P. J. Bartlein, S. P. Harrison, I. C. Prentice, S. Brewer, P. Friedlingstein, T. I. Harrison-Prentice, et al. “Predictability of Biomass Burning in Response to Climate Changes.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 26 (4). Wiley-Blackwell: 2012. doi:10.1029/2011GB004249.

Delpla, I., A.-V Jung, E Baures, M Clement, and O Thomas. “Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Water Quality in Relation to Drinking Water Production.” Environment International 35 (2009): 1225-33. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2009.07.001.

Finighan, Adrian. “Philippines Mining shutdown.” Al Jazeera. February 11, 2017. https://www.aljazeera.com/program/counting-the-cost/2017/2/11/philippines-mining-shutdown/

Food and Agriculture Organization. Philippines . http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#country/171

___ . FAOSTAT. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC

___ . “ Soil resources depletion and deforestation: Philippines case study in resource accounting.” 2007 . http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/AB604E/AB604E02.htm#TopOfPage

___ . Organization (1999). FAO Country Profiles: Philippines. Retrieved from: http://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/maps/map/en/?iso3=PHL&mapID=604

Galtung, Johan. “Conflict as a way of life.” Progress in Mental Health. London: Churchill Press, 1969.

Gedan, Keryn., Matthew Kirwan, Eric Wolanski, Edward Barbier, Brian Silliman. “The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: answering recent challenges to the paradigm.” Climatic Change 106, no. 1 (2011): 7-29.

Gibson, Robert. “Beyond the pillars: sustainability assessment as a framework for effective integration of social, economic and ecological considerations in significant decision-making.” Journal of Environmental Assessments and Political Management 8, no. 3 (2006): 259-280.

Gilman, Eric., Joanna Ellison, Norman Duke, Colin Field. “Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: a review.” Aquatic Botany 89 , no. 2 (2008): 237-250.

Gray, John, Ian Greaves, Dorina Bustos, David Krabbenhoft. “Mercury and methylmercury contents in mine-waste, calcine, water, and sediment collected from the Palawan Quicksilver Mine, Philippines.” Environmental Geology 43, no. 3 (2003): 298-307.

Harris, Ian. Peace Education in a postmodern World: A special issue of the Peabody Journal of Education . London: Taylor and Francis, 2004.

Hijioka, Yasuaki., Erda Lin, Joy Jacqueline Pereira, Richard T. Corlett, Xuefeng Cui, Gregory Insarov, Rodel Lasco, Elisabet Lindgren, Akhilesh Surjan. “Asia.” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.

Homer-Dixon, Thomas. Environment, Scarcity and Violence. New York: Princeton University Press, 1999.

IMF. Data Mapper: Real GDP Percentage Change. http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORL...

International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). History.  https://www.ipcc.ch/about/history/

Jasparro, Christopher, Jonathan Taylor. “Climate Change and Regional Vulnerability to Transnational Security Threats in Southeast Asia.” Geopolitics 13, no. 2. (2008): 232-256.

Kintisch, Eli. “Can coastal marshes rise above it all?” Science 341, no. 6145 (2013): 480-481.

Knutson, Thomas R., John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, John P. Kossin, A.K. Srivastava, Masato Sugi. “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change.” Nature Geoscience 3, no. 3 (2010): 157-163.

Mining Association of Canada. TSM101: A primer .  https://mining.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/TSM-Primer-English.pdf

National Aeronautical Space Administration (NASA). What is Climate Change? https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/stories/nasa-knows/what-is-climate-change-k4.html

OECD. Agricultural Policies in the Philippines. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2017.

Philippine Statistics Authority. 2017a. “Poverty: Fishermen, farmers, and children constantly post the highest rates of poverty among basic sectors.” http://psa.gov.ph/poverty-press-releases

___. 2017b “Tourism.” http://openstat.psa.gov.ph/Database

___. 2017c “Total number of OFWs estimated at 2.2million (results from the 2016 survey on overseas Filipino Workers.” https://psa.gov.ph/content/total-number-ofws-estimated-22-million-results-2016-survey-overseas-filipinos

___. 2017d “Gross National Income and Gross Domestic Product: Gross Value added in mining and quarrying.” http://psa.gov.ph/nap-press-release/sector/Mining%20and%20Quarrying

___. 2017e. “Population and housing.” https://psa.gov.ph/population-and-housing

Rumney, Emma. “Philippines Agriculture counterproductive, warns OECD.” Public Finance. April 10, 2017.

Serapio, Manolo. “Philippine’s Duterte keeps open pit mining ban in policy clash.” Reuters. November 20, 2017.

Simbulan, Roland G. “Indigenous Communities’ Resistance to Corporate Mining in the Philippines.” A Journal of Social Justice 28 (2016): 29-37.

Singh, A. “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.” Asia Pacific Post. January 23, 2018.

Su, Glenn Io Sia. “Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines.” AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 37, no. 4 (2008): 292-294.

UN DESA Statistics Division. “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009.” New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2009.

UN Economic and Social Council. “Human rights and indigenous issues: Mission to the Philippines.” 2003. https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G03/115/21/PDF/G0311521.pdf?OpenElement

UN HABITAT. “The State of Asian Cities 2010/2011.” Fukuoka: UN Habitat, 2011.

Villanoy, Cesar., Laura David, Ollivia Cabrera, Michael Atrigenio, Fernando Siringan, Porfirio Alino, Maya Villaluz. “Coral reef ecosystems protect shore from high-energy waves under climate change scenarios.” Climatic Change 112, no. 2 (2012): 493-505.

Wassman, R., Krishna SV Jagadish, K. Sumfleth, Surendra Pathak, G. Howell, A. Ismail, Rachid Serraj, E. Redona Rakash Kumar Singh, Sigrid Heuer. “Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation.” In Advances in Agronomy , Vol. 102, Burlington (VT): Academic Press, 2009.

Wong, Poh Poh., Inigo J. Losada, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Jochen Hinkel, Abdellatif Khattabi, Kathleen L. McInnes, Yoshiki Saito, Asbury Sallenger. “Coastal systems and low-lying areas.” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014.

World Bank. 2017a. “Philippines Economic Update April 2017.” http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/05/04/philippines-economic-update-april-2017

World Bank. 2017b. “Agriculture, value added (% of GDP).” https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS

World Bank. 2017c. “Employment in Agriculture % in total employment. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS

World Commission on Environment and Development. Our Common Future. New York: Oxford University Press, 1987.

Yamano, Hiroya., Kaoru Sugihara, Keiichi Nomura. “Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures .” Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. 4 (2011): 1-6 

1 Roehlano Briones, “The Philippines Country Environmental Analysis Land Degradation and Rehabilitation in the Philippines.” The World Bank, 2009.

2 Food and Agriculture Organization. 2017a. Philippines. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#country/171

3 IMF. Data Mapper: Real GDP Percentage Change. http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORL...

4 World Bank. 2017a. “Philippines Economic Update April 2017.” http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/05/04/philippines-economic-update-april-2017

5 Food and Agriculture Organization, 2017a.

6 Asia Development Bank. “Eradicating poverty and promoting prosperity among a changing Asia-Pacific.” https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/235276/eradicating-p...

7 National Aeronautical Space Administration (NASA). What is Climate Change. https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/stories/nasa-knows/what-is-climate-change-k4.html

8 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). History. https://www.ipcc.ch/about/history/

9 Yasuaki Hijioka, Erda Lin, Joy Jacqueline Pereira, Richard T. Corlett, Xuefeng Cui, Gregory Insarov, Rodel Lasco, Elisabet Lindgren, Akhilesh Surjan, “Asia,” in Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, 2013), 1327-1370.

10 Matthew Collins, Reto Knutti, Julie Arblaster, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Thierry Fichefet, Pierre Friedlingstein, Xuejie Gao, et al, “Long-Term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of the Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment of Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2013).

11 A.-L. Daniau, P.J. Bartlein, S. P. Harrison, I.C. Prentice, S. Brewer, P. Friedlingstein, et al, “Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes,” in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 26 no.4 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004249

12 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

14 Delpla et al, “Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production.” Environment International 35 (2009): 1225–1233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2009.07.001

16 Collins et al, “Long-term change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility,” 2013.

17 Yamano, Hiroya, Kaoru Sugihara, Keiichi Nomura, “Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures.” Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. 4 (2011): 1-6.

18 Hijioka et al, “Asia,” 2013.

19 John Church, Peter Clark, David Bahr, Jason Box, David Bromwich, Mark Carson, William Collins, et al, “Sea Level Change,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 1137–1217.

20 Thomas R. Knutson, John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, John P. Kossin, A.K. Srivastava, Masato Sugi, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change ,” Nature Geoscience 3, no. 3 (2010): 157-163.

21 Eric Gilman, Joanna Ellison, Norman Duke, Colin Field, “Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: a review,” Aquatic Botany 89, no 2 (2008): 237-250.

22 Eli Kintisch, “Can coastal marshes rise above it all?” Science 341, no. 6145 (2013): 480-481.

23 Keryn Gedan, Matthew Kirwan, Eric Wolanski, Edward Barbier, Brian Silliman, “The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: answering recent challenges to the paradigm,” Climatic Change 106, no 1(2011): 7-29.

24 Cesar Villanoy, Laura David, Ollivia Cabrera, Michael Atrigenio, Fernando Siringan, Porfirio Alino, Maya Villaluz, “Coral reef ecosystems protect shore from high-energy waves under climate change scenarios,” Climatic Change 112, no. 2 (2012): 493-505.

25 World Bank, 2017c, “Employment in Agriculture % in total employment. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS

26 Food and Agriculture Organization, 2017b. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC

27 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017a. “Poverty: fishermen, Farmers, and Children constantly post the highest rates of poverty among basic sectors. http://psa.gov.ph/poverty-press-releases

28 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017b “Tourism.” http://openstat.psa.gov.ph/Database

29 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017c “Total number of OFWs estimated at 2.2million (results from the 2016 survey on overseas Filipino Workers.” https://psa.gov.ph/content/total-number-ofws-estimated-22-million-results-2016-survey-overseas-filipinos

30 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017d “Gross National Income and Gross Domestic Product: Gross Value added in mining and quarrying.” http://psa.gov.ph/nap-press-release/sector/Mining%20and%20Quarrying

31 Poh Poh Wong, Inigo J. Losada, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Jochen Hinkel, Abdellatif Khattabi, Kathleen L. McInnes, Yoshiki Saito, Asbury Sallenger, “Coastal systems and low-lying areas,” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

32 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

33 John Gray, Ian Greaves, Dorina Bustos, David Krabbenhoft, “Mercury and methylmercury contents in mine-waste, calcine, water, and sediment collected from the Palawan Quicksilver Mine, Philippines,” Environmental Geology 43, no. 3 (2003): 298-307.

34 James Appleton, Jason Weeks, J Calvez, and C Beinhoffd, “Impacts of mercury contaminated mining waste on soil quality, crops, bivalves, and fish in the Naboc River area, Mindanao, Philippines,” Sciences of the Total Environment 354, no 2-3 (2006): 198-211.

35 Redempto Anda, “Gov’t study confirms widespread mercury poisoning in 2 villages in Puerto Princesa City,” Inquirer.net. June 7, 2017.

36 Food and Agriculture Organization, “Soil resources depletion and deforestation: Philippines case study in resource accounting,” 2007. http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/AB604E/AB604E02.htm#TopOfPage

37 Leoc Aragao, “Environmental science: the rainforest’s water pump.” Nature 489 (2012): 217-218.

38 Briones, “The Philippines Country Environmental Analysis Land Degradation and Rehabilitation in the Philippines.”

39 R.B. Badayos, and F. C. Calalo, “Farm sustainability and organic farming,” in Securing Rice, Reducing Poverty: Challenges and Policy Directions, SEARCA, College, Laguna, 2007.

40 R. Wassman et al, “Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation.” In Advances in Agronomy, Vol. 102, Burlington: Academic Press, 2009.

41 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

42 Appleton et al, “Impacts of mercury contaminated mining waste,” 2006.

43 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017e, “Population and housing.” https://psa.gov.ph/population-and-housing

44 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

47 Glenn Io Sia Su, “Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines,” AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 37, no. 4 (2008): 292-294

48 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

49 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017a, “Poverty: Fishermen, Farmers, and Children constantly post the highest rates of poverty among basic sectors.”

50 UN DESA Statistics Division, “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009” (New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2009).

51 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

53 UN HABITAT, “The State of Asian Cities 2010/2011).” Fukuoka: UN Habitat, 2011

54 Alvin Chandra, Karen E McNamara, Paul Dargusch, Ana Maria Caspe, and Dante Dalabajan, “Gendered Vulnerabilities of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in Conflict-Prone Areas: A Case Study from Mindanao, Philippines,” Journal of Rural Studies 50 (2017): 45–59. doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.12.011.

55 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

57 A. Singh, “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.” Asia Pacific Post. January 23, 2018.

58 Manolo Serapio, “Philippine’s Duterte keeps open pit mining ban in policy clash,” Reuters, November 20, 2017.

59 Adrian Finighan, “Philippines Mining shutdown,” Al Jazeera. 2017, February 11. Retrieved from: https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2017/02/philippines-mining-shutdown-170211080450892.html

60 Singh, “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.”

61 Finighan, “Philippines Mining shutdown.”

63 Singh, “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.”

64 Serapio, “Philippine’s Duterte keeps open pit mining ban in policy clash.”

65 Mining Association of Canada, “TSM101: A primer.” https://www.minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/MAC%20TSM%20101%20-%20A%20Primer.pdf

67 Singh, “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.”

68 Serapio, “Philippine’s Duterte keeps open pit mining ban in policy clash.”

69   Antonio Contreras, “Blood and money in the sand: The tragic story of the Atis of Boracay.” The Manila times. February 27, 2018. http://www.manilatimes.net/blood-money-sand-tragic-story-atis-boracay/38...

70 Antonio Contreras, “Blood and money in the sand: The class dimension of Boracay environmental disaster.” The Manila Times . March 1, 2018. http://www.manilatimes.net/blood-money-sand-class-dimension-boracay-envi...

71 OECD. “Agricultural Policies in the Philippines.” Paris: OECD Publishing, 2017.

75 Caesar Cororaton, Erwin Corong, 2009. “Philippine Agriculture and Food Policy: Implications for poverty and income distribution” https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/55512/files/rr161.pdf

76 OECD. “Agricultural Policies in the Philippines.”

80 Cororaton and Corong, “Philippine Agriculture and Food Policy: Implications for poverty and income distribution.”

81 OECD, “Agricultural Policies in the Philippines.”

82 Emma Rumney, “Philippines Agriculture counterproductive, warns OECD.”

83 Chandra et al, “Gendered Vulnerabilities of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in Conflict-Prone Areas: A Case Study from Mindanao, Philippines.”

87 Christopher Jasparro, Taylor Jonathan, “Climate Change and Regional Vulnerability to Transnational Security Threats in Southeast Asia.”

88 UN Economic and Social Council, “Human rights and indigenous issues: Mission to the Philippines.”

90 Roland Simbulan, Roland G. “Indigenous Communities’ Resistance to Corporate Mining in the Philippines.”

91 ASEAN, “Best Practice on sustainable mineral development in ASEAN.” http://asean.org/?static_post=sustainable-practice-minerals-development-best-practices-asean

92 Johan Galtung, “Conflict as a way of life.” In Progress in Mental Health. London: Churchill Press, 1969.

93 World Commission on Environment and development. “Our Common Future.” New York: Oxford University Press, 1987.

94 Robert Gibson, “Beyond the pillars: sustainability assessment as a framework for effective integration of social, economic and ecological considerations in significant decision-making.” Journal of Environmental Assessments and Political Management 8, no 3 (2006): 259-280

95 Ian Harris, “Peace Education in a postmodern World: A special issues of the Peabody journal of education.” London: Taylor and Francis, 2004.

96 Galtung, “Conflict as a way of life,” 1969.

97 Thomas Homer-Dixon, Environment, scarcity and Violence. New York: Princeton University Press, 1999.

99 Jonathan Jasparro, “Climate Change and Regional Vulnerability to Transnational Security Threats in Southeast Asia.”

100 CHR, “CHR to conduct first hearing investigating possible contribution of carbon to climate change and its impacts on human rights,” 2018.

102   Ibid.

103   Ibid. 

Back to Issue

In This Issue

This site uses cookies to enhance your browsing experience. By continuing to use this site, you agree to the use of cookies. Our Privacy Policy is located at https://www.usfca.edu/privacy

Parts of Philippines may submerge due to global warming

More than 167,000 hectares of coastland -- about 0.6% of the country's total area -- are projected to go underwater in the Philippines, especially in low-lying island communities, according to research by the University of the Philippines.

Low-lying countries with an abundance of coastlines are at significant risk from rising sea levels resulting from global warming. According to data by the World Meteorological Organisation, the water levels around the Philippines are rising at a rate almost three times the global average due partly to the influence of the trade winds pushing ocean currents.

On average, sea levels around the world rise 3.1 centimetres every ten years. Water levels in the Philippines are projected to rise between 7.6 and 10.2 centimetres each decade.

The Philippines government has been forced to take this into consideration. A number of governmental and nongovernmental organizations have sprung up in recent years to address the issue. The Department of Environment and National Resources has its own climate change office, which has set up various programs to educate communities in high-risk areas. One program, for example, teaches communities to adapt to rising sea levels by ensuring that public spaces, such as community halls and schools, are not built near the coast.

But soon, adaptation on a local level won't be enough. Policy makers need to convince governments to curb their emissions on a global level.

The earth's oceans were a hot topic at the Common Future Under Climate Change conference held in Paris in July.

According to J.P. Gattuso, senior research scientist at France's CNRS Laboratory of Oceanography in Villefranche, the discussion of warming oceans rarely featured in previous climate change discussions. "The ocean moderates climate change at the cost of profound alterations to its physics, chemistry, ecology and services," says Gattuso. "However, despite the ocean's critical role in global ecosystem processes and services, international climate negotiations have only minimally touched on ocean impacts. Any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts will be incomplete and inadequate," he says. But this is changing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report 2013 indicated that if emissions continue on their current trend, we could face a "significant increase" in sea level extremes with risks of coastal flooding.

A new study, published in October 2014 in Environmental Research Letters , paints an even scarier picture. Sea levels could rise by a maximum of 190 centimetres (higher than the average person) by the end of the century. Low-lying coastal communities, such as in Bangladesh, could be most at risk.

Research in the journal Science , which was released during the Climate Change conference in July, also emphasizes the importance that research addresses the effects of rising sea levels. In the Science study, researchers compared the fate of the oceans under two scenarios: one a business-as-usual approach and the other involving drastic cuts in emissions.

Their analyses showed that business-as-usual would have an enormous and effectively irreversible impact on ocean ecosystems and the services they provide, such as fisheries, by 2100.

"Our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Studies such as these that improve our understanding of magnitudes of global sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet loss are critical for society," states Anders Carlson, co-author and associate professor of geology and geophysics at Oregon State University in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report 2013.

• Global Warming
• Environmental Awareness
• Environmental Issues
• Oceanography
• Environmental Policy
• Geology of the Capitol Reef area
• Underwater explosion
• Shield volcano
• North American blizzard of 1978
• San Andreas Fault
• Mid-ocean ridge

Story Source:

Materials provided by International Development Research Centre (IDRC) . Original written by Aya Lowe. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Cite This Page :

Explore More

• Otters Use Tools to Survive a Changing World
• Monogamy in Mice: Newly Evolved Type of Cell
• Sustainable Electronics, Doped With Air
• Male Vs Female Brain Structure
• Breeding 'Carbon Gobbling' Plants
• Why Do We Overindulge?
• Jelly Sea Creatures and Underwater Robotics
• Teeth of Sabre-Toothed Tigers
• Robotic 'SuperLimbs' Could Help Moonwalkers
• Solving Quantum Many-Body Problems

Trending Topics

Strange & offbeat.

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• Published: 14 May 2024

2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years

• Jan Esper   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3919-014X 1 , 2 ,
• Max Torbenson   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2720-2238 1 &
• Ulf Büntgen 2 , 3 , 4  

Nature ( 2024 ) Cite this article

912 Accesses

3150 Altmetric

Metrics details

We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

• Climate change
• Palaeoclimate

Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer 1 ,2 , 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record 3-5 . Contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is nontrivial, however, because the sparse 19 th century meteorological records tend to be too warm 6 . Here, we combine observed and reconstructed June-August (JJA) surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest NH extra-tropical summer over the past 2000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than half a degree Celsius. Comparison of the 2023 JJA warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in 536 CE reveals a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93°C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse gases-induced warming trend 7 that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event 8 , this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals

Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription

24,99 € / 30 days

cancel any time

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 51 print issues and online access

185,98 € per year

only 3,65 € per issue

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

Climate extremes likely to drive land mammal extinction during next supercontinent assembly

Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s)

Author information, authors and affiliations.

Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany

Jan Esper & Max Torbenson

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic

Jan Esper & Ulf Büntgen

Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Ulf Büntgen

Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jan Esper .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article.

Esper, J., Torbenson, M. & Büntgen, U. 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years. Nature (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y

Download citation

Received : 16 January 2024

Accepted : 02 May 2024

Published : 14 May 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines . If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

May 14, 2024

April Heat Waves from Gaza to the Philippines Were Made Worse by Climate Change

From Gaza to India to the Philippines, climate change exacerbated often record-breaking extreme heat over the past month

By Andrea Thompson

Displaced Palestinians sit outside to escape the searing heat in their camp tents in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip near the border with Egypt on April 26, 2024.

Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images

Extreme heat has left hundreds of millions of people sweltering in record-breaking temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past few weeks across a broad swath of Asia. From the Palestinian territories in the west to India, Thailand and the Philippines to the east, scorching conditions have caused at least dozens of deaths , ruined crops and forced thousands of school closures. Relentless heat waves have worsened the already precarious conditions for those living in refugee camps and in makeshift housing in dense urban areas. And the 1.2 degrees C of warming the world has already experienced has significantly cranked up such events’ severity, a new analysis shows.

That trend of worse and more frequent heat extremes will only continue in these and other places “if you don’t do anything to stop burning fossil fuels,” says the new study’s lead author, Mariam Zachariah, a researcher at the Grantham Institute–Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London.

The analysis was conducted by an international team of researchers called World Weather Attribution (WWA), which uses peer-reviewed methods to look for the fingerprints of climate change in extreme weather events . The scientists use trends in historical temperature data, along with computer models, to compare the severity and frequency of extreme events in today’s real-world climate with those in two projected scenarios. One was a simulated world without human-caused climate change, and another was a future under continued warming.

On supporting science journalism

If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing . By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.

The group focused on three areas: “West Asia” (the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan), “Southeast Asia” (the Philippines) and “South Asia” (which, in the team’s analysis, included India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Thailand).

World Weather Attribution, restyled by Amanda Montañez

The team found that the weeks of April heat in South Asia this year were about 45 times more likely and 0.85 degrees C hotter because of human-caused climate change. The researchers had carried out two studies in roughly the same region in 2022 and 2023 , and this year’s trends in temperature data were on par with the earlier results. “This keeps happening every year,” Zachariah says.

In the Philippines, the team analyzed a 15-day period of heat at the end of April. Though this is usually the hottest time of year for the archipelago, the researchers found that an event of this magnitude would not have happened without the influence of climate change—which made this particular heat wave 1.2 degrees C hotter. There was also a discernable impact from this year’s El Niño , which added another 0.2 degree C.

West Asia’s seasonal weather patterns are closer to those of much of Europe and North America, where temperatures usually don’t peak until later in the summer—so the three days in which they rose above 40 degrees C in late April were unusual. The team’s analysis found that climate change made that April heat wave five times more likely and 1.7 degrees C hotter.

Such heat has enormous impacts on people, particularly displaced and impoverished populations with extremely limited means to cope . Zachariah, who has family in India, says relatives “talked about how hard it was to get things done” in the “scorching heat”—and they have had proper housing, which many in the area have lacked. Thousands of schools have shut down in South and Southeast Asia for parts of April and May because of the heat, a situation the researchers say can widen the education gap between high- and low-income families. The heat has also posed a health risk to many who work outdoors, such as construction workers, farmers and truck drivers, and it can mean they earn less money.

Many of the 1.7 million displaced people in Gaza are living in tents that tend to trap heat, and the high temperatures exacerbate drinking water shortages and already dire health conditions. Many in the territory are experiencing famine , and Israel’s bombardments have devastated hospitals and other care facilities.

With greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continuing to rise (there was a record annual jump in carbon dioxide levels over the past year), events with a similar meteorological setup will be even worse in the future. With two degrees C of warming, heat waves like the recent one in West Asia would become more frequent by a factor of two and would be another one degree C warmer. The heat in the Philippines would become another five times more likely and 0.7 degree C hotter.

“If humans continue to burn fossil fuels, the climate will continue to warm, and vulnerable people will continue to die,” said the new analysis’s co-author Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute–Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, in a recent press release.

Many areas, including parts of India and Bangladesh, “will soon reach unlivable conditions,” Zachariah says.

The results point not only to the need to rapidly phase out fossil fuels but also to the necessity of better policies and infrastructure to help people adapt to the damage that has already been done. For example, the analysis mentions that although India has a robust action plan to notify people of extreme heat and advise them on measures they can take to get by, workers need mandatory protections such as rest-shade-rehydrate programs. “We shouldn’t focus only on the numbers we report,” Zachariah says. “It is also extremely important to consider what these numbers contribute to.”

share this!

May 16, 2024

This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies . Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility:

fact-checked

Ocean warming triggers Indo-Pacific heat waves: Study

by Ranjit Devraj, SciDev.Net

An intense heat wave gripping South and South-East Asia since late March comes as no surprise to leading meteorologists who have been warning of steadily rising temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

Temperatures in the Philippines and Thailand have topped 50°C this month, while Bangladesh has recorded almost 30 days of heat waves, leading to deaths from heatstroke and school closures.

Scientists say the heat waves are directly linked to climate change and ocean warming, which are likely to bring even more intense weather events such as cyclones.

While the Indian Ocean has undergone basin-wide surface warming at a rate of 0.12°C per decade between1950 and 2020, models now show that greenhouse gas emissions will likely accelerate surface warming at a rate of 0.17°C–0.38°C per decade between 2020 and 2100, says Roxy Mathew Koll, top scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

A recent study led by Koll on future projections for the Indian Ocean, published in The Indian Ocean and its Role in the Global Climate System , projects marine heat waves as increasing from 20 days per year (during 1970–2000) to as much as 250 days per year.

This, it says, would push the tropical Indian Ocean basin into a "near-permanent heat wave state" by the end of the 21st century.

"Though the warming is basin-wide, the northwestern Indian Ocean including the Arabian Sea will see maximum warming while the intensity will be reduced off the Sumatra and Java coasts in the southeast Indian Ocean," says Koll.

"Mid-to-high greenhouse gas emissions will likely see the Indian Ocean experience surface warming of between 1.4°C and 3°C in 2100."

Koll says projected shifts in surface temperatures hold implications for cyclones and other extreme weather events over the Indo-Pacific region.

While the maximum basin-average temperatures in the Indian Ocean during 1980–2020 remained below 28°C, the minimum temperatures by the end of the 21st century will be above 28°C, climate models predict.

Intense cyclones

"Sea surface temperatures above 28°C are generally conducive for deep convection and the generation of cyclones," says Koll, adding that heavy rainfall events and extremely severe cyclones, which were on the increase since the 1950s, are projected to increase further as ocean temperatures rise.

There could be "rapid intensification" of cyclones, says Koll meaning that a cyclone could intensify from a depression to a severe category in a few hours.

Other consequences of ocean warming include coral bleaching, seagrass destruction and loss of kelp forests, seriously impacting the fisheries sector, he says.

The current heat wave has severely affected eastern India and countries in Southeast Asia such as Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, which have reported record temperatures reaching up to 48°C. In many of these countries, schools have had to be ordered closed amid reports of heat stroke deaths.

In the Philippines, as the heat index, which combines temperature and humidity, rose to more than 42°C, authorities cancelled in-person classes repeatedly in many parts of the country since late April with hundreds of thousands of students switching to home-based online lessons.

Temperatures top 50°C

So far this year, the highest recorded heat index in the Philippines reached 53°C on 28 April, still far off the record of 60°C on 14 August 2023.

In Thailand, temperatures have also topped 50°C, causing at least 40 deaths from heat stroke and playing havoc with orchards and poultry farms.

On 28 April, Bangladesh recorded 29 days of heat waves, surpassing the previous high of 23 heat wave days in 2019. Temperatures have since dropped sufficiently for authorities to reopen schools.

Jayanarayanan Kuttipurath, associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology—Kharagpur, attributes the warming to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide as well as an increase of water vapor in the atmosphere.

"Our studies show that atmospheric water vapor has been increasing in India and across the world, amplifying the global temperature rise," he says.

"There has been a continuous rise in atmospheric moisture, which amplifies warming and thus, heat waves," says Kuttipurath. This is evident in coastal states like Kerala, Odisha, West Bengal, and also neighboring Bangladesh and Myanmar where temperatures touched 48.2°C.

In addition, the impact of El Niño and its departure, during which higher oceanic temperature is expected, might have also impacted the heat wave conditions.

"El Niño conditions were announced during the summer to fall of 2023 and by the start of 2024 it had transitioned into its decaying phase and this may have been a factor in the present high-temperature conditions," Kuttipurath tells SciDev.Net.

"There are other inter-annual, decadal and multi-decadal climate variabilities, which can either enhance or dampen these changes in regional climate, but global warming and climate change would be the primary factors responsible for severe heat waves in the future," says Kuttipurath.

Provided by SciDev.Net

Explore further

Feedback to editors

Physicists propose path to faster, more flexible robots

40 minutes ago

Scientists develop new geochemical 'fingerprint' to trace contaminants in fertilizer

12 hours ago

Study reveals how a sugar-sensing protein acts as a 'machine' to switch plant growth—and oil production—on and off

13 hours ago

Researchers develop world's smallest quantum light detector on a silicon chip

How heat waves are affecting Arctic phytoplankton

Horse remains show Pagan-Christian trade networks supplied horses from overseas for the last horse sacrifices in Europe

Ion irradiation offers promise for 2D material probing

Furry thieves are running loose in a Maine forest, research shows

Study indicates Earth's earliest sea creatures drove evolution by stirring the water

14 hours ago

Chemists develop new method for introducing fluorinated components into molecules

Relevant physicsforums posts, pyramids built along dry river bed.

5 hours ago

The Secrets of Prof. Verschure's Rosetta Stones

A very puzzling rock or a pallasite / mesmosiderite or a nothing burger.

May 8, 2024

M 4.8 - Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, US

What is global warming due to, large eruption at ruang volcano, indonesia.

May 2, 2024

More from Earth Sciences

Related Stories

Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures found to be accurate predictor of dengue outbreaks

May 13, 2024

FAA initiates environmental impact study for SpaceX Starship launches from Kennedy Space Center

Solar geoengineering to cool the planet: Is it worth the risks?

Apr 25, 2024

Seychelles beach cleans demonstrate potential for citizen science to tackle marine litter

Apr 17, 2024

Image: Sulaiman mountain haze

May 9, 2024

Cyclone bears down on flood-hit Kenya, Tanzania

May 5, 2024

Recommended for you

Microplastics may slow the rate at which carbon is pulled from the sea surface to the depths

15 hours ago

Differing values of nature can still lead to joined up goals for sustainability

16 hours ago

Airborne technology brings new hope to map shallow aquifers in Earth's most arid deserts

Carbon pricing works, major meta-study finds

'Forever chemicals' found to rain down on all five Great Lakes

Floating robots reveal just how much airborne dust fertilizes the Southern Ocean—a key climate 'shock absorber'

Let us know if there is a problem with our content.

Use this form if you have come across a typo, inaccuracy or would like to send an edit request for the content on this page. For general inquiries, please use our contact form . For general feedback, use the public comments section below (please adhere to guidelines ).

Please select the most appropriate category to facilitate processing of your request

Thank you for taking time to provide your feedback to the editors.

Your feedback is important to us. However, we do not guarantee individual replies due to the high volume of messages.

E-mail the story

Your email address is used only to let the recipient know who sent the email. Neither your address nor the recipient's address will be used for any other purpose. The information you enter will appear in your e-mail message and is not retained by Phys.org in any form.

Newsletter sign up

Get weekly and/or daily updates delivered to your inbox. You can unsubscribe at any time and we'll never share your details to third parties.

More information Privacy policy

Donate and enjoy an ad-free experience

We keep our content available to everyone. Consider supporting Science X's mission by getting a premium account.

E-mail newsletter

Should our future food be genetically engineered?

Genetically modified crops can help cut carbon emissions, research shows — but they still face major hurdles.

The Philippines Department of Agriculture has a vision: to become the first country to allow the commercial production of golden rice , a 20-year-old genetically modified crop that could prevent hundreds of thousands of cases of childhood blindness around the world.

But the country’s appeals court came to a very different decision last month. The court banned cultivating the crop, named for the yellow color that comes from the addition of Vitamin A , as well as a genetically modified eggplant.

“This decision is a monumental win for Filipino farmers and Filipino people who have for decades stood up against genetically modified (GM) crops,” Wilhelmina Pelegrina, a Southeast Asia campaigner for Greenpeace, an advocacy group that has opposed genetically modified crops for decades, said in a statement .

While genetically modified crops may still provoke fear and uncertainty, some scientists argue that not only can they help to alleviate human health concerns, but they might also be able to help fight climate change. And as new tools like CRISPR , which can make targeted cuts in DNA, gain traction, genetic food engineering could be on the cusp of a quantum leap.

“It’s all political,” Stuart Smyth, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Saskatchewan, said of the Philippines decision. “It’s not based on science.”

Genetically modified crops are ones that have had genetic material inserted from another species of organism. For example, the first genetically modified food product — a tomato introduced to the public in 1994 as the “Flavr Savr” — had two genes added. One conferred antibiotic resistance, and another gave the tomato a longer shelf life. (The company manufacturing the Flavr Savr, Calgene, had to cease production in 1997 because of rising costs.)

Today, there are only a few genetically modified crops in production, but those that exist are widely grown. In the United States, 94 percent of all soybeans, 96 percent of all cotton and 92 percent of all corn was genetically modified as of 2020, according to the Food and Drug Administration . These crops became popular because of their ability to withstand glyphosate, a key ingredient in the herbicide known as “Roundup.” Other countries that grow genetically modified crops widely include Canada, Brazil and India.

No major scientific research has found that genetically modified crops cause health problems in humans. In a 400-plus-page report published in 2016, the National Academies of Science found that “no substantiated evidence that foods from GE [genetically engineered] crops were less safe than foods from non-GE crops.” The report urged analysis of such foods by the traits that they include, rather than how they were created.

Yet engineered crops remain unpopular. According to a Pew Research Center poll from 2020, 38 percent of Americans believe genetically modified crops are unsafe, compared with 27 percent who believe they are safe. Thanks to a law passed by Congress in 2016, foods in the United States are required to be labeled as bioengineered if they involved genetic engineering beyond what could be accomplished with conventional breeding techniques. One analysis showed that consumers are willing to pay 20 percent more to avoid GM foods.

At the same time, a small but growing body of research has argued that GM foods could play a significant role in cutting carbon emissions. In a study published last year, researchers at the University of Bonn in Germany and the Berkeley, Calif.-based Breakthrough Institute found that widespread use of these crops in Europe could cut the agricultural sector’s emissions by 7.5 percent.

Another study found that the use of GM crops globally saves around 23 million metric tons of carbon dioxide every year — equal to removing around half of all vehicles from roads in the United Kingdom.

There are two primary ways genetically engineered crops could cut carbon emissions.

First, they can be more productive, creating higher yields for farmers and allowing them to grow more food on less land. One global analysis found that GM crops on average lead to a 22 percent increase in yields. At the same time, one-third of all emissions from agriculture are from deforestation and the destruction of other natural areas — as farmers expand and grow more crops, they cut down trees that are storing CO2 in their trunks and leaves.

If farmers can grow their crops on less land, less forest is converted into farmland, allowing trees and landscapes to store more carbon. “That decrease in deforestation is the big reason why yield increases cut emissions,” said Emma Kovak, a senior food and agriculture analyst for the Breakthrough Institute.

Other scientists say crops with herbicide resistance can require less tilling. “Every time soil is tilled, it releases carbon back into the atmosphere,” Smyth said. Herbicide-resistant corn, for example, can endure being sprayed by weed-killing agents, preventing farmers from having to till the land to remove weeds.

But the environmental community is split. Some activists say focusing on climate change obscures the real problem with genetically modified crops: the role of big corporations in controlling food production.

“We see GMOs as a tool of the major corporations that already have a stranglehold on our food system,” said Amanda Starbuck, research director at Food and Water Watch. Many genetically modified crops, Starbuck says, go toward feeding animals for meat production — and improvements in yield won’t change the fact that humans need to move away from eating so much meat. “We need to move to significantly reduce that consumption,” she added.

Research into alleviating climate change with genetically modified crops has just begun. “On a scale of one to 100, I’d say it’s single digits,” Smyth said. Scientists say they need more analysis of how GM crops change land use and carbon sequestration, and studies that take place over longer periods of time.

But even in areas where the science is relatively settled, genetically engineered foods have struggled to gain acceptance. Golden rice was developed in 1999 by a Swiss scientist; it was intended to combat the estimated 250,000 to 500,000 children every year who go blind from Vitamin A deficiency. More than two decades later, however, the crop has not entered widespread cultivation, thanks in part to regulatory battles in Asia and resistance from environmentalists.

In its decision to ban genetically modified crops, the appeals court cited a Philippines legal principle granting the right to a healthy environment.

For opponents of genetically engineered crops, that is a victory; for some scientists, it is a missed opportunity. “It’s sad that something someone developed in the 1980s to solve a problem — a really bad problem, children going blind — is still relevant,” Kovak said.

And while the battle lines around genetically modified crops have been set for decades, new technologies may shake things up. Gene-editing tools like CRISPR allow scientists to make tweaks, deletions or changes in a genome without inserting genes from another species. Researchers are already working on gene-edited crops that could speed up photosynthesis and increase crop yields.

Changing a genome without adding a component from another species could be more palatable to consumers — but some environmental groups believe it is just a way to rebrand the same type of work.

“Industry could say, ‘Well, it’s not GMO. It’s gene-edited,’” Starbuck said. “It’s just another smokescreen.”

The shift could also complicate existing regulations, which have been tied to older definitions of genetic modification.

“It’s frustrating,” Smyth said. “We need to make all of these changes to cut carbon emissions. But how are we supposed to meet the Paris accord with one hand tied behind our back?”

More on climate change

Understanding our climate: Global warming is a real phenomenon , and weather disasters are undeniably linked to it . As temperatures rise, heat waves are more often sweeping the globe — and parts of the world are becoming too hot to survive .

What can be done? The Post is tracking a variety of climate solutions , as well as the Biden administration’s actions on environmental issues . It can feel overwhelming facing the impacts of climate change, but there are ways to cope with climate anxiety .

Inventive solutions: Some people have built off-the-grid homes from trash to stand up to a changing climate. As seas rise, others are exploring how to harness marine energy .

What about your role in climate change? Our climate coach Michael J. Coren is answering questions about environmental choices in our everyday lives. Submit yours here. You can also sign up for our Climate Coach newsletter .

Arab States

Asia and the pacific, europe & central asia, latin america & the caribbean.

You’re using an outdated browser. Old browsers are unstable, unsafe and do not support the features of of this website. Please upgrade to continue.

Your browser does not support JavaScript. This site relies on JavaScript to structure its navigation and load images across all pages. Please enable JavaScript to continue.

What is climate change mitigation and why is it urgent?

• Share on LinkedIn
• Share on Facebook
• Share on twitter
• Share via email

• Climate change mitigation involves actions to reduce or prevent greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
• Mitigation efforts include transitioning to renewable energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency, adopting regenerative agricultural practices and protecting and restoring forests and critical ecosystems.
• Effective mitigation requires a whole-of-society approach and structural transformations to reduce emissions and limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
• International cooperation, for example through the Paris Agreement, is crucial in guiding and achieving global and national mitigation goals.
• Mitigation efforts face challenges such as the world's deep-rooted dependency on fossil fuels, the increased demand for new mineral resources and the difficulties in revamping our food systems.
• These challenges also offer opportunities to improve resilience and contribute to sustainable development.

What is climate change mitigation?

Climate change mitigation refers to any action taken by governments, businesses or people to reduce or prevent greenhouse gases, or to enhance carbon sinks that remove them from the atmosphere. These gases trap heat from the sun in our planet’s atmosphere, keeping it warm. 

Since the industrial era began, human activities have led to the release of dangerous levels of greenhouse gases, causing global warming and climate change. However, despite unequivocal research about the impact of our activities on the planet’s climate and growing awareness of the severe danger climate change poses to our societies, greenhouse gas emissions keep rising. If we can slow down the rise in greenhouse gases, we can slow down the pace of climate change and avoid its worst consequences.

Reducing greenhouse gases can be achieved by:

• Shifting away from fossil fuels : Fossil fuels are the biggest source of greenhouse gases, so transitioning to modern renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal power, and advancing sustainable modes of transportation, is crucial.
• Improving energy efficiency : Using less energy overall – in buildings, industries, public and private spaces, energy generation and transmission, and transportation – helps reduce emissions. This can be achieved by using thermal comfort standards, better insulation and energy efficient appliances, and by improving building design, energy transmission systems and vehicles.
• Changing agricultural practices : Certain farming methods release high amounts of methane and nitrous oxide, which are potent greenhouse gases. Regenerative agricultural practices – including enhancing soil health, reducing livestock-related emissions, direct seeding techniques and using cover crops – support mitigation, improve resilience and decrease the cost burden on farmers.
• The sustainable management and conservation of forests : Forests act as carbon sinks , absorbing carbon dioxide and reducing the overall concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Measures to reduce deforestation and forest degradation are key for climate mitigation and generate multiple additional benefits such as biodiversity conservation and improved water cycles.
• Restoring and conserving critical ecosystems : In addition to forests, ecosystems such as wetlands, peatlands, and grasslands, as well as coastal biomes such as mangrove forests, also contribute significantly to carbon sequestration, while supporting biodiversity and enhancing climate resilience.
• Creating a supportive environment : Investments, policies and regulations that encourage emission reductions, such as incentives, carbon pricing and limits on emissions from key sectors are crucial to driving climate change mitigation.

Photo: Stephane Bellerose/UNDP Mauritius

Photo: La Incre and Lizeth Jurado/PROAmazonia

What is the 1.5°C goal and why do we need to stick to it?

In 2015, 196 Parties to the UN Climate Convention in Paris adopted the Paris Agreement , a landmark international treaty, aimed at curbing global warming and addressing the effects of climate change. Its core ambition is to cap the rise in global average temperatures to well below 2°C above levels observed prior to the industrial era, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.

The 1.5°C goal is extremely important, especially for vulnerable communities already experiencing severe climate change impacts. Limiting warming below 1.5°C will translate into less extreme weather events and sea level rise, less stress on food production and water access, less biodiversity and ecosystem loss, and a lower chance of irreversible climate consequences.

To limit global warming to the critical threshold of 1.5°C, it is imperative for the world to undertake significant mitigation action. This requires a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 45 percent before 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century.

What are the policy instruments that countries can use to drive mitigation?

Everyone has a role to play in climate change mitigation, from individuals adopting sustainable habits and advocating for change to governments implementing regulations, providing incentives and facilitating investments. The private sector, particularly those businesses and companies responsible for causing high emissions, should take a leading role in innovating, funding and driving climate change mitigation solutions. 

International collaboration and technology transfer is also crucial given the global nature and size of the challenge. As the main platform for international cooperation on climate action, the Paris Agreement has set forth a series of responsibilities and policy tools for its signatories. One of the primary instruments for achieving the goals of the treaty is Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) . These are the national climate pledges that each Party is required to develop and update every five years. NDCs articulate how each country will contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhance climate resilience.   While NDCs include short- to medium-term targets, long-term low emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) are policy tools under the Paris Agreement through which countries must show how they plan to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century. These strategies define a long-term vision that gives coherence and direction to shorter-term national climate targets.

Photo: Mucyo Serge/UNDP Rwanda

Photo: William Seal/UNDP Sudan

At the same time, the call for climate change mitigation has evolved into a call for reparative action, where high-income countries are urged to rectify past and ongoing contributions to the climate crisis. This approach reflects the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which advocates for climate justice, recognizing the unequal historical responsibility for the climate crisis, emphasizing that wealthier countries, having profited from high-emission activities, bear a greater obligation to lead in mitigating these impacts. This includes not only reducing their own emissions, but also supporting vulnerable countries in their transition to low-emission development pathways.

Another critical aspect is ensuring a just transition for workers and communities that depend on the fossil fuel industry and its many connected industries. This process must prioritize social equity and create alternative employment opportunities as part of the shift towards renewable energy and more sustainable practices.

For emerging economies, innovation and advancements in technology have now demonstrated that robust economic growth can be achieved with clean, sustainable energy sources. By integrating renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind and geothermal power into their growth strategies, these economies can reduce their emissions, enhance energy security and create new economic opportunities and jobs. This shift not only contributes to global mitigation efforts but also sets a precedent for sustainable development.

What are some of the challenges slowing down climate change mitigation efforts?

Mitigating climate change is fraught with complexities, including the global economy's deep-rooted dependency on fossil fuels and the accompanying challenge of eliminating fossil fuel subsidies. This reliance – and the vested interests that have a stake in maintaining it – presents a significant barrier to transitioning to sustainable energy sources.

The shift towards decarbonization and renewable energy is driving increased demand for critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth metals. Since new mining projects can take up to 15 years to yield output, mineral supply chains could become a bottleneck for decarbonization efforts. In addition, these minerals are predominantly found in a few, mostly low-income countries, which could heighten supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions.

Furthermore, due to the significant demand for these minerals and the urgency of the energy transition, the scaled-up investment in the sector has the potential to exacerbate environmental degradation, economic and governance risks, and social inequalities, affecting the rights of Indigenous Peoples, local communities, and workers. Addressing these concerns necessitates implementing social and environmental safeguards, embracing circular economy principles, and establishing and enforcing responsible policies and regulations .

Agriculture is currently the largest driver of deforestation worldwide. A transformation in our food systems to reverse the impact that agriculture has on forests and biodiversity is undoubtedly a complex challenge. But it is also an important opportunity. The latest IPCC report highlights that adaptation and mitigation options related to land, water and food offer the greatest potential in responding to the climate crisis. Shifting to regenerative agricultural practices will not only ensure a healthy, fair and stable food supply for the world’s population, but also help to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  

Photo: UNDP India

Photo: Nino Zedginidze/UNDP Georgia

What are some examples of climate change mitigation?

In Mauritius , UNDP, with funding from the Green Climate Fund, has supported the government to install battery energy storage capacity that has enabled 50 MW of intermittent renewable energy to be connected to the grid, helping to avoid 81,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. 

In Indonesia , UNDP has been working with the government for over a decade to support sustainable palm oil production. In 2019, the country adopted a National Action Plan on Sustainable Palm Oil, which was collaboratively developed by government, industry and civil society representatives. The plan increased the adoption of practices to minimize the adverse social and environmental effects of palm oil production and to protect forests. Since 2015, 37 million tonnes of direct greenhouse gas emissions have been avoided and 824,000 hectares of land with high conservation value have been protected.

In Moldova and Paraguay , UNDP has helped set up Green City Labs that are helping build more sustainable cities. This is achieved by implementing urban land use and mobility planning, prioritizing energy efficiency in residential buildings, introducing low-carbon public transport, implementing resource-efficient waste management, and switching to renewable energy sources. 

UNDP has supported the governments of Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Indonesia to implement results-based payments through the REDD+ (Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries) framework. These include payments for environmental services and community forest management programmes that channel international climate finance resources to local actors on the ground, specifically forest communities and Indigenous Peoples. 

UNDP is also supporting small island developing states like the Comoros to invest in renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure. Through the Africa Minigrids Program , solar minigrids will be installed in two priority communities, Grand Comore and Moheli, providing energy access through distributed renewable energy solutions to those hardest to reach.

And in South Africa , a UNDP initative to boost energy efficiency awareness among the general population and improve labelling standards has taken over commercial shopping malls.

What is UNDP’s role in supporting climate change mitigation?

UNDP aims to assist countries with their climate change mitigation efforts, guiding them towards sustainable, low-carbon and climate-resilient development. This support is in line with achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to affordable and clean energy (SDG7), sustainable cities and communities (SDG11), and climate action (SDG13). Specifically, UNDP’s offer of support includes developing and improving legislation and policy, standards and regulations, capacity building, knowledge dissemination, and financial mobilization for countries to pilot and scale-up mitigation solutions such as renewable energy projects, energy efficiency initiatives and sustainable land-use practices. 

With financial support from the Global Environment Facility and the Green Climate Fund, UNDP has an active portfolio of 94 climate change mitigation projects in 69 countries. These initiatives are not only aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but also at contributing to sustainable and resilient development pathways.

Explore More Stories

Pacific shores, solar solutions: harnessing renewable energy in the pacific islands.

Photo: Yuichi Ishida/UNDP Timor-Leste

West Africa has great potential for solar energy. It’s time to release it.

Photo: UNDP Niger

Electric vehicles are driving a greener future in Viet Nam

Ho Tuan Anh delivers goods with his new e-motorbike. Photo by: Phan Huong Giang/UNDP Viet Nam

Why the Western Balkans are choosing decarbonization

Photo: UNDP Bosnia and Herzegovina

Six lessons on how to achieve future-smart energy efficient buildings 

Solar photovoltaic systems on roofs in Lebanon. Photo: Fouad Choufany / UNDP Lebanon

Six ways to achieve sustainable energy for all

Photo: UNDP Zimbabwe

• Alzheimer's disease & dementia
• Arthritis & Rheumatism
• Attention deficit disorders
• Autism spectrum disorders
• Biomedical technology
• Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes
• Endocrinology & Metabolism
• Gastroenterology
• Gerontology & Geriatrics
• Health informatics
• Inflammatory disorders
• Medical economics
• Medical research
• Medications
• Neuroscience
• Obstetrics & gynaecology
• Oncology & Cancer
• Ophthalmology
• Overweight & Obesity
• Parkinson's & Movement disorders
• Psychology & Psychiatry
• Radiology & Imaging
• Sleep disorders
• Sports medicine & Kinesiology
• Vaccination
• Breast cancer
• Cardiovascular disease
• Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
• Colon cancer
• Coronary artery disease
• Heart attack
• Heart disease
• High blood pressure
• Kidney disease
• Lung cancer
• Multiple sclerosis
• Myocardial infarction
• Ovarian cancer
• Post traumatic stress disorder
• Rheumatoid arthritis
• Schizophrenia
• Skin cancer
• Type 2 diabetes
• Full List »

share this!

May 15, 2024 report

This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies . Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility:

fact-checked

peer-reviewed publication

trusted source

Up to 246 million older people may be exposed to heat risk by 2050 due to global warming

by Bob Yirka , Medical Xpress

A team of Earth and environmental scientists at the CMCC Foundation–Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, working with a pair of colleagues from Boston University, has found evidence suggesting that as many as 246 million people around the globe may be at risk of heat exposure by 2050 due to global warming and an aging population.

In their paper published in the journal Nature Communications , the group describes how they used climate models to assess global hotspots and compared them with population projections for the same areas.

The planet is growing warmer due to man-made greenhouse gas emissions that make their way into the atmosphere. But not all parts of the planet will grow warmer to the same degree—some places, such as parts of Africa and Asia are expected to get hotter than other places.

Unfortunately, at the same time, the number of people over the age of 60 is growing as well—their numbers are expected to double by 2050, with a lot of them living in Asia and Africa—in countries where air-conditioning is rare.

In this new study, the research team noted that although a lot of research has been done to better understand the impact of extreme heat on older people , little work has been done to find out how many of them may be at risk in the coming years. To find out, they looked at both climate and population models for the years leading up to 2050.

The climate models showed that the global average number of extremely hot days will grow from approximately 10 to 20 over the next 30 years. The researchers also found that those hot days will be hotter, depending on where they happen.

And the population models showed that approximately 23% of people over age 69 will be living in parts of the world that will experience those dangerously high temperatures—that percentage is just 14% today.

Overall, the research team found that anywhere from 177 to 246 million people over the age of 69 may be living in places that will regularly see dangerously high temperatures by 2050, putting many of them at risk for exposure-related ailments or death.

© 2024 Science X Network

Explore further

Feedback to editors

Better medical record-keeping needed to fight antibiotic overuse, studies suggest

51 minutes ago

Repeat COVID-19 vaccinations elicit antibodies that neutralize variants, other viruses

54 minutes ago

A long-term ketogenic diet accumulates aged cells in normal tissues, new study shows

12 hours ago

Gut bacteria enhance cancer immunotherapy in mouse study

13 hours ago

Research finds the protein VISTA directly blocks T cells from functioning in immunotherapy

Study opens the door to designing therapies to improve lung development in growth-restricted fetuses

15 hours ago

Researchers make strides in microbiome-based cancer therapies via iron deprivation in the tumor microenvironment

Study reveals that the brain modulates visual signals according to internal states

Limiting certain light exposure has potential to prevent inherited retinal dystrophy

Researchers reveal molecular mechanisms of different donor arteries for coronary artery bypass grafting

Related stories.

Study suggests heat waves of the future could kill millions

Aug 6, 2020

Billions projected to suffer nearly unlivable heat in 2070

May 4, 2020

Model shows life-threatening heat events will happen more often and in more places as the world warms

Sep 11, 2023

40% of EU agricultural imports will be 'highly vulnerable' to drought by 2050

Jun 17, 2021

Global warming could lead to increase in 'hot lightning' strikes causing more wildfires

Mar 1, 2023

Examining how weather patterns will change in the future

Sep 25, 2023

Recommended for you

Global life expectancy projected to increase by nearly 5 years by 2050 despite various threats

May 16, 2024

Number of people experiencing poor health, early death from metabolism-related risk factors has increased since 2000

Men at greater risk of major health effects of diabetes than women, study suggests

Study reveals immunotherapy's potential in boosting immune systems of older individuals

May 15, 2024

Researchers find microplastics in canine and human testicular tissue

Let us know if there is a problem with our content.

Use this form if you have come across a typo, inaccuracy or would like to send an edit request for the content on this page. For general inquiries, please use our contact form . For general feedback, use the public comments section below (please adhere to guidelines ).

Please select the most appropriate category to facilitate processing of your request

Thank you for taking time to provide your feedback to the editors.

Your feedback is important to us. However, we do not guarantee individual replies due to the high volume of messages.

E-mail the story

Your email address is used only to let the recipient know who sent the email. Neither your address nor the recipient's address will be used for any other purpose. The information you enter will appear in your e-mail message and is not retained by Medical Xpress in any form.

Newsletter sign up

Get weekly and/or daily updates delivered to your inbox. You can unsubscribe at any time and we'll never share your details to third parties.

More information Privacy policy

Donate and enjoy an ad-free experience

We keep our content available to everyone. Consider supporting Science X's mission by getting a premium account.

E-mail newsletter