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Making Every Drop Count: Pakistan’s growing water scarcity challenge

Can climate change risks spur needed action?

Pakistan is facing a serious water crisis. The country is rapidly moving from being classified as water “stressed” to water “scarce”—and with its annual water availability fall below 1,000 cubic metres per person, it may in fact have already crossed this threshold. For comparison, that means that the annual water available for each person in Pakistan would not even fill half of an Olympic swimming pool.

The scope of the crisis can be demonstrated by a few key facts:

• About 92 per cent of Pakistan is classified as semi-arid to arid, and the vast majority of Pakistanis are dependent on surface and groundwater sources from a single source—the Indus River basin.
• Since gaining independence in 1947, Pakistan's population has more than quadrupled; by 2100 its population will have increased by tenfold.
• About 90 per cent of the country's agricultural production comes from land irrigated by the Indus Basin Irrigation System (Qureshi, 2011), firmly linking national food security to water levels in the Indus River basin.
• Pakistan’s water storage capacity is limited to a maximum 30-day supply, far below the 1,000-day storage capacity recommended for a country with its climatic characteristics.

With water availability per person declining year by year, and demand for food production continuously increasing, Pakistan faces not only a water crisis but also serious concerns regarding its future food security.  This situation also has clear implications for the government's efforts to become an upper middle income country by 2025 and achieve long-term peace and security.

What Does Climate Change Mean for the Water Crisis?

Climate change is likely to only enhance Pakistan’s water crisis, although perhaps not in the way that many expect.

When climate change and its implications for Pakistan’s water resources are discussed, the conversation normally revolves around the expected decline in water flow in the Indus River basin as the glaciers of the Hindu Kush-Karakorum-Himalaya mountains retreat and are lost. This concern is understandable given that snow and ice melt runoff currently generates between 50 and 80 per cent (Yu et al., 2013) of average water flows in the Indus River basin. And there is in fact some evidence that the amount of water flowing into the Indus River basin has declined in recent years (but due to cooler and cloudier summers).

Inevitably, climate change will lead to significant changes in hydrologic patterns in the Indus River basin. But at least until 2050 the scientific evidence suggests that the volume of water flowing in the Indus River and its tributaries likely will remain relatively stable or even increase. The most significant change could be a shift in the timing of peak flow to slightly earlier in the year, along with a potential increase in variability from one year to the next. Such changes could in fact help to somewhat alleviate Pakistan’s growing water stress.

Largely overlooked in the discussions around water and climate change in Pakistan are the likely impacts of climate change on the country’s steadily growing water demand . Rising temperatures will increase the agriculture sector’s already substantial demand for water as evapotranspiration rates increase and soil moisture levels decline. Higher temperatures will also affect the country’s growing thermal power production sector, which provides approximately 65 per cent of the country's energy. The thermal sector is highly dependent on water for steam production and subsequently for cooling the steam. As higher air temperatures decrease the efficiency of the thermal conversion process (Makky & Kalash, 2013), greater volumes of water will be required by this sector to maintain production levels.

Better Management of Water Demand

The potential impacts of climate change on water demand have been highlighted in recent research completed by Amir & Habib (2015), and analyses completed by IISD as part of a larger project looking at the vulnerability of Pakistan's water sector to climate change undertaken in partnership with the Centre for Climate Research and Development , Pakistan's  Ministry of Climate Change  and UNDP-Pakistan . These studies suggest that higher temperatures will lead to a significant increase in water demand compared to a business-as-usual scenario.

The immediate threat posed by climate change to Pakistan’s water sector therefore is on the demand side. This finding reinforces the need for Pakistan to focus on improving the efficiency with which it uses its water—to make sure that every drop counts.

The recently completed studies also highlight the potential benefits of investing in efforts to improve the efficiency of water use—particularly in the irrigated agriculture sector, where the opportunities for improvement are significant. The Indus River Irrigation System is characterized by large inefficiencies at the canal, watercourse and field levels; only about 30 per cent of water flowing through the system is delivered to farms, and farmers at the tail end of the system rarely get water. Water management is weak; water prices and recovery rates don't generate the revenue needed to cover operation and maintenance costs; there is an absence of regulatory enforcement; and farmers continue to follow traditional flood irrigation practices that overwater crops and have led to waterlogging of soils in parts of the Indus Basin.

Greater effort to promote the uptake of high-efficiency irrigation systems by smallholder farmers, along with infrastructure investments such as canal upgrades and precision land levelling, would be important steps to improve the situation. At the same time, much more effort is needed to understand the water demand challenges facing Pakistan. There is a general absence of water demand data and analysis, particularly for different provinces and sectors. More research is also needed in areas such as water pricing to develop and implement systems that promote more efficient water use.

Next Steps Towards Preventing Water Scarcity

As Pakistan strives to respond to climate change and its associated risks—for example, by completing recently announced plans to develop a comprehensive climate change strategy—water demand solutions need to be at the forefront of its efforts. This focus will help to overcome the country’s immediate and growing water crisis. It will also help reduce Pakistan's vulnerability to more variable water flows and the inevitable longer-term impacts of climate change on the essential water resources of the Indus River basin.

Further Reading:

Amir, P. & Habib, Z., (2015). Estimating the impacts of climate change on sectoral water demand in Pakistan. Action on Climate Today.

Asian Development Bank (2013). Pakistan. In Asian Development Outlook 2013: Asia's Energy Challenge  (pp. 203–208). Retrieved from   

Makky, M. & Kalash, H. (2013). Potential risks of climate change on thermal power plants . Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236174007_Potential_Risks_of_Climate_Change_on_Thermal_Power_Plants

Qureshi, A. S. (2011). Water management in the Indus basin in Pakistan: Challenges and opportunities. Mountain Research and Development, 31 (3), 252–260.

Yu, W., Yang, Y. C., Savitsky, A., Alford, D., Brown, C., Wescoat, J., & Debowicz, D. (2013). The Indus basin of Pakistan: The impacts of climate risks on water and agriculture. World Bank Publications.  

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UN: Months after Pakistan floods, millions lack safe water

People get drinking water from a water collecting point at a slum area, in Karachi, Pakistan, Tuesday, March 21, 2023. World Water Day will be observed on March 22, to aim to highlight the importance of freshwater and advocate for sustainable management of this vital resource. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan)

People get drinking water from a water collecting point at a slum area, in Karachi, Pakistan, Tuesday, March 21, 2023. World Water Day will be observed on March 22 to aim to highlight the importance of freshwater and advocate for sustainable management of this vital resource. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan)

People wait to get drinking water from a water collecting point at a slum area, in Karachi, Pakistan, Tuesday, March 21, 2023. World Water Day will be observed on March 22, to aim to highlight the importance of freshwater and advocate for sustainable management of this vital resource. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan)

People visit a market to buy grocery and other stuff, ahead of the upcoming Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, March 21, 2023. Muslims across the world will be observing the Ramadan, when they refrain from eating, drinking and smoking from dawn to dusk. Ramadan is expected to officially begin Thursday or Friday in Pakistan, though the timing depends on the alignment of the moon. (AP Photo/Muhammad Sajjad)

Workers remove a structure after finishing repairing and paint work in a mosque ahead of the upcoming Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, in Karachi, Pakistan, Tuesday, March 21, 2023. Muslims across the world will be observing the Ramadan, when they refrain from eating, drinking and smoking from dawn to dusk. Ramadan is expected to officially begin Thursday or Friday in Pakistan, though the timing depends on the alignment of the moon. (AP Photo/Fareed Khan)

Police officers control a crowd gathered to get a free sack of wheat flour at a distributing point, in Lahore, Pakistan, Monday, March 20, 2023. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will provide free flour to deserving and poor families during the Muslim’s holy month of Ramadan due to high inflation in the country. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary)

A woman leaves as other wait their turn to get a free sack of wheat flour at a distributing point, in Lahore, Pakistan, Monday, March 20, 2023. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will provide free flour to deserving and poor families during the Muslim’s holy month of Ramadan due to high inflation in the country. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary)

Women jostle to get a free sack of wheat flour at a distributing point, in Lahore, Pakistan, Monday, March 20, 2023. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will provide free flour to deserving and poor families during the Muslim’s holy month of Ramadan due to high inflation in the country. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary)

Women show their identity cards to receive a free sack of wheat flour at a distributing point, in Lahore, Pakistan, Monday, March 20, 2023. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will provide free flour to deserving and poor families during the Muslim’s holy month of Ramadan due to high inflation in the country. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary)

Women show their identity cards to get a free sack of wheat flour, at a distributing point, in Lahore, Pakistan, Monday, March 20, 2023. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will provide free flour to deserving and poor families during the Muslim’s holy month of Ramadan due to high inflation in the country. (AP Photo/K.M. Chaudary)

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ISLAMABAD (AP) — The United Nations children’s agency on Tuesday warned that after last summer’s devastating floods, 10 million people in Pakistan, including children, still live in flood-affected areas without access to safe drinking water.

The statement from UNICEF underscored the dire situation in impoverished Pakistan, a country with a population of 220 million that months later is still struggling with the consequences of the flooding, as well as a spiraling economic crisis. The floods, which experts attribute in part to climate change, killed 1,739 people, including 647 children and 353 women.

So far, less than half of UNICEF’s funding appeal for Pakistan — 45% of $173.5 million — has been met. According to the agency, before the floods struck last June, water from only 36% of Pakistan’s water system was considered safe for human consumption.

The floods damaged most of the water pipelines systems in affected areas, forcing more than 5.4 million people, including 2.5 million children, to rely solely on contaminated water from ponds and wells, UNICEF said.

“Safe drinking water is not a privilege, it is a basic human right,” said Abdullah Fadil, the UNICEF representative in Pakistan. “Yet, every day, millions of girls and boys in Pakistan are fighting a losing battle against preventable waterborne diseases and the consequential malnutrition.”

“We need the continued support of our donors to provide safe water, build toilets and deliver vital sanitation services to these children and families who need them the most,” Fadil added.

Amid the crisis, Pakistan faces uncertainty about a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Analysts say the revival of the $6 billion IMF bailout, which was signed in 2019, would help Pakistan. If the global lender released a key installment of the package, it would encourage other international financial institutions to help the country, they say.

At a U.N-backed conference in Geneva in January, dozens of countries and international institutions pledged more than $9 billion to help Pakistan recover and rebuild from the floods. But most of the pledges were in form of project loans, and the projects are still in the planning stages.

Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s government is also facing a surge in militant attacks and political instability as his predecessor, Imran Khan, is campaigning for early elections. Sharif has rejected the demands by Khan, who was ousted in a no-confidence vote in Parliament last April.

Sharif seeks political and economic stability to ensure speedy reconstruction in the flood-hit areas, where the weakest and the children are paying the price.

“In flood-affected areas, more than 1.5 million boys and girls are already severely malnourished, and the numbers will only rise in the absence of safe water and proper sanitation,” UNICEF said.

The floods caused more than $30 billion in damages as large swaths of the country remained under water for months, forcing millions to live in tents or make-shift homes near stagnant waters that led to the spread of disease.

Sharif’s government is also trying to provide food and cash assistance to flood survivors as the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan starts this week, adding more financial burdens to the poorest of the population.

The UNICEF warning came ahead of World Water Day, which will be observed on Wednesday as part of global efforts to highlight the importance of freshwater and advocate for sustainable management of the vital resource.

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How Floods in Pakistan Threaten Global Security

• Water Security
• climate change

In Pakistan, torrential rains and flooding in August 2022 impacted an estimated  33 million people  and caused  more than $40 billion  in economic damages. The catastrophic flooding left 1,700 people dead, 2 million homes destroyed and killed over 900,000 livestock . Parts of the country saw  five to six times  the normal amount of rainfall.

The country is now experiencing mass displacement,  food insecurity , loss of livelihoods and an increased risk of waterborne disease, drowning and malnutrition. Six months later, flood waters have still not fully receded, and as of early January 2023,  5 million people  are still living very close to, or exposed to, floodwaters.

This catastrophic devastation has the potential of only getting worse as the floods and resulting water crisis further destabilize an already politically turbulent nation, causing national and global security problems for years to come.

Ongoing research from WRI and the  Water Peace and Security Partnership  (WPS) shows how water disasters become a source of instability for the people they impact. 

Floods Are a Growing Threat in Pakistan

Flooding during the monsoon season (June through September) is not new to Pakistan. Similar severe events occurred in  2010 , but it’s set to get worse. WRI’s  Aqueduct Floods  — a data tool that tracks water risks around the world —  predicts  that the number of people exposed to flooding will continue to increase from almost 2 million in 2010 to 5.7 million in 2030.

An  early study  from an international group of climate scientists found that climate change increased the likelihood of Pakistan’s heavier rainfall. High levels of  poverty , poor governance and high-density development in floodplains were also found to increase the impact from a monsoon. This combination of climate hazards and existing vulnerabilities threatens security for the country, the region and beyond.

Flooding and Other Water Risks Create Instability

In addition to the immediate effects on people and their livelihoods, it is important to also shed light on indirect impacts. Devastating floods like Pakistan’s can spark humanitarian crises, with lasting impacts and compounding effects on:

• Public health:   Pakistanis are experiencing inadequate sanitation and health services,  disease outbreaks  and lack of access to clean water, toilets, medicine, sufficient food and more. Diseases are  spreading , including cholera, malaria, dengue, scabies,  lumpy skin disease , hand-foot-and-mouth disease, mosquito-borne illnesses and zoonotic diseases affecting livestock. Children, especially those in camps for displaced people, are  highly vulnerable  to acute respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, malnutrition, skin diseases and typhoid. In mid-October, about two months after the flooding, the UN recorded a peak of about  100,000 cases of malaria  in the country.
• Water security:  Flooding pollutes drinking water, limits the supply of water, destroys water management infrastructure and can bring waterborne diseases.  Wate r insecurity can also be linked to violent conflict , according to the WPS. The  WPS Early Warning Tool  predicts continued and emerging conflict in parts of Pakistan this year.
• Food security:  Agriculture is especially vulnerable to natural disasters  like floods, which cause major harvest and livestock losses, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. At least  4 million acres of crops have been destroyed . With the planting season started, and a significant amount of agricultural lands still flooded, farmers were unable to plant new crops. Experts foresee a  secondary hunger crisis  if harvests fall short next year. Already, anemic mothers are delivering babies at very  low birth weights . The impact on food security is not only limited to Pakistan. Pakistan is one of the world's  largest exporters  of wheat and rice, which is expected to be impacted by the floods. This also threatens Pakistan’s agreement to sell these crops to the World Food Programme, to reduce food shortages in Afghanistan. This is happening during a time of inflation and high food prices in part due to the  Russian invasion  of Ukraine and supply chain interruptions from the COVID pandemic which raises the threat of food insecurity. The UN recently  reported  that an additional 1.1 million Pakistani people will face emergency food security conditions in early 2023.
• Energy access:  Only  one-quarter  of Pakistanis have access to electricity, and the demand to increase energy output is growing. Over the next seven years, Pakistan plans  to double  hydroelectric output to combat its electricity deficit. But energy dependence on hydropower raises risks of  transboundary water issues  — or increased tensions between state actors over water issues — with India, a country that is already suffering from  water-based energy insecurity .
• Housing:  The summer floods washed away entire villages, putting  10 million children  in need of lifesaving support and forcing over  3.4 million children  to leave their homes. With millions of homes destroyed, Pakistan is experiencing mass displacement, the need for displaced persons camps and internal movement could cause increased competition in hosting communities.
• Failing and damaged infrastructure:  The flooding and ensuing landslides have destroyed  critical infrastructure  such as bridges, homes, hospitals, public health facilities, roads and schools. This destruction of rural infrastructure and  irrigation systems  threatens public health and national security.

Instability Threatens National Security

This flooding disaster and humanitarian crisis hit Pakistan at a time of ongoing  political turbulence . Last year, Prime Minister Imran Khan  was ousted  by constitutional means with a vote of no confidence, but his opposition to the legitimacy of the new government creates uncertainty about the political future of the country and fears of violence. In early November, Khan survived a  gun attack  during a protest march.

Meanwhile, allegations of government corruption and support for extremist groups are challenging relationships between Pakistan and western countries and multinational organizations have imposed conditions on Pakistan that could cause internal and international strife, such as the International Monetary Fund’s aid terms stipulating that Pakistan  reduce debt payments  to Chinese power producers.

Pakistan is in desperate need of international aid and adaptation support, to build climate resilience and prepare for future disasters. A lack of government assistance during natural disasters like this one may delegitimize the current administration,  already on shaky footing . There have already been  protests  blaming the government for insufficient flood relief. 

Increasing instability could create a power vacuum, leaving Pakistan, a nuclear country, vulnerable to external influences (or the  perception  of external influences, reinforcing possible army intervention in the government),  extremist organizations  and others. The Taliban's sudden takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 and their long-lasting relations with Pakistan and Pakistani government’s inability or unwillingness to influence the group's activities in Afghanistan have increased frustration in western countries.  Increased attacks  in Pakistan by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which is inspired by the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan, have raised concerns and criticism even in inner circles within the Pakistani establishment.

Decreasing Water Stress Can Boost Pakistan’s Stability

Pakistan is  one of the most water-stressed countries  in the world. Only  36%  of Pakistanis have access to safely managed drinking water, down from 38% in 2004. The summer floods have severely limited access to clean drinking water and water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, while raising the risk of waterborne illnesses.

This insecurity will worsen without stronger, sustainable  water management . The WPS finds that  violent conflicts  rise from water crises. Violent protest broke out in Iraq in 2018 after low flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers allowed saltwater to flow upstream, ruining freshwater sources.  In 2019, violence escalated in Mali and several hundred people were killed in conflicts over water access between herders, farmers and fishers in the Mopti region. Chennai, India has also experienced violent conflicts over water resources following years of drought.

But  solutions  exist , and Pakistan can implement them to decrease its water stress:

• Improve  water governance : Countries should adopt integrated water resource management that considers all competing interests’ needs for water resources and adopts better data to inform allocation of resources. 
• Increase agricultural water use efficiency:  Farmers should switch to more water-efficient crops or better target water in irrigation, rather than use methods like flooding fields. 
• Invest in nature-based solutions:  Green infrastructure like wetlands and forests improve water quality and spread supply out over longer periods, building resilience against both droughts and floods.
• Treat and reuse wastewater:  With wastewater treatment, wastewater isn’t waste but can become a new water source.
• Invest in flood protection infrastructure:  Maintaining flood protection infrastructure can help prevent casualties and create  local jobs . Flood protection measures also offer a strong return on investment. For example,  Aqueduct Floods  finds that if Pakistan moves from its existing 9-year flood protection system to a 25-year flood protection system by 2050, every $1 spent on dike infrastructure in the country may result in $11.90 in avoided damages to urban property. This investment would reduce the likelihood of floods from 11% to 4%.

WRI’s and WPS’ 2020 report,  Ending Conflicts Over Water Solutions to Water and Security Challenges , also identifies strategies to reduce water-related security risks. It is intended for global development, diplomacy, defense and disaster response experts, as well as for national- and river basin-level decision-makers charged with addressing natural resource-based conflict, migration and other forms of insecurity. Policymakers can tailor solutions to their unique water challenges that are organized into four broad categories:

• Natural resources, science and engineering approaches
• Political and legal tools
• Economic and financial tools
• Policy and government strategies.

Preparing for Future Floods

The Pakistani government should work to build back better and invest in adaptation, resilience and long-term infrastructure. Adaptation and resilience initiatives include rebuilding outside of flood zones and strengthening early warning systems and planning.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and power of monsoons and other natural disasters. Countries like Pakistan — already facing devastating impacts — should work to alleviate poverty; implement adaptation strategies and nature-based solutions; and improve water resources management, flood prevention, drought response, food security and access to safe, reliable and affordable water for all. By doing so, countries “could be on a path to preventing some of the worst health outcomes of disasters,” according to Kristen Patterson, director of  Drawdown Lift at Project Drawdown , in an  article in the Scientific American .

But without political reform, Pakistan will continue to suffer the increased magnitude of natural disasters and other impacts of climate change.

However, one of the most important reforms lies beyond Pakistan. Industrial nations must severely cut greenhouse gas emissions to protect Pakistan and other vulnerable nations and communities from the catastrophic effects of climate change. That includes Pakistan’s most important partners and allies, China, the United States and Russia and Pakistan should consider using whatever leverage it has with these countries to push for reductions in emissions.

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Release: new report finds even the toughest water security problems can be solved, triple threat: water, energy and food insecurity, release: significant risk of water-related conflict in parts of iraq, iran, mali, nigeria, india and pakistan over next 12 months, how climate change affects health and how countries can respond, how you can help.

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Water crisis in Pakistan: Facts and solutions

One of the most pressing issues that Pakistan faces at the moment is the water crisis . Pakistan is predominantly an agrarian country, with most of the economy dependent on water to grow crops. But ominously, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan is the third most affected country in terms of water scarcity. If problem of water shortage prevails, it might have drastic and long-ranging geo-political, financial and ecological effects on Pakistan. 

Pakistan’s water originates from a number of sources. Around 60 percent of our total rainwater is derived from the monsoon rains, but a significant proportion also comes from the winter rainfall. In addition, Pakistan has a lot of glaciers which feed the river system in Pakistan. River Indus and its tributaries provide most of the water needed for irrigation. Glacial melt off has been affected due to climate change, increasing risks of flooding. 

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Pakistan’s surface and groundwater resources are depleting rapidly. By 2016, surface water availability per capita had fallen close to 1000 cubic centimeters and is expected to decrease even further. Pakistan is considered to have crossed the “water scarcity line” in 2005, according to Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR). The problem of water shortage has worsened terribly due to the alarming rate of water usage in Pakistan – the fourth highest in the world – while the water intensity rate (the amount of water used per unit GDP) is, unsettlingly, the highest in the world. 

The Tarbela and Mangla Dams are the only big dams in Pakistan which can store floodwater. By 2018, both had reached their “dead” levels, meaning that they do not have enough water to operate. According to Muhammad Khalid Rana, from the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), Pakistan is extremely short on reservoirs and can only save water for 30 days. Furthermore, he states that Pakistan receives almost 145 million acre feet of water but can only save 13.7 million acre feet of water. He goes on to say Pakistan needs 40 million acre feet of water but 29 acre feet is wasted due to lack of dams. 

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The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) warn of absolute water scarcity and a drought by 2025 if such problems prevail. Recently the sources of Pakistan’s water are becoming unpredictable. As such, Mian Ahmed Naeem Salik from the Institute of Strategic Studies reports, that in the past few years the monsoon season in Pakistan has become erratic. Moreover the winter season has shrunk as well from four to two months in most parts of the country. On top of that Pakistan is unable to save precious floodwater due to scarcity of dams.  

In lieu of such a situation measures need to be taken to conserve water and solve this impending water crisis . The first step that should be taken is to provide awareness programs for the public so that they may try their best to conserve water. The people of Pakistan should be well informed about the situation, so that they may be able to save maximum amount of gallons of water as they possibly can. 

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Furthermore, as we are short on reservoirs and dams, the Government should initiate projects for more large-scale dams. One such example is the Diamer-Bhasha Dam for which funds were being collected. The Government must invest in large-scale dam projects so we may be able to save much required floodwater. 

Moreover, cost effective measures for saving water should be implemented at domestic level. The Government should make use of technology based methods to prevent leakage in pipes and keep water usage in check. Smart irrigation methods should be used to reduce water wastage drastically, rather than wasting lots of groundwater through tube wells.

We should utilize other methods to trap rainwater and use it to recharge underground aquifers, ensuring more water for the future. In essence, increased attention and funds towards this quandary is required from the Government. If such measures are not taken with swiftness and alacrity Pakistan will find itself in a highly perplexing conundrum.   

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The author is a student at Aitchison College, Lahore.

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Pakistan to Invest in Water and Sanitation Services to Boost Health and Climate Resilience in Punjab Province

WASHINGTON, June 18, 2021 —The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors today approved $442 million in financing to support Pakistan in improving access to water and sanitation services for the most vulnerable rural communities in Punjab province. 

The Punjab Rural Sustainable Water Supply and Sanitation Project (PRSWSSP) will help upgrade water supply and sanitation infrastructure and services that ensure equitable and sustainable access to drinking water and safe wastewater management. The project prioritizes rural settlements, where water contamination and poor sanitation practices are more prevalent, causing high levels of illness and child stunting. 

“PRSWSSP will help more than six million rural residents in the poorest districts of Punjab to reduce child stunting and address areas at high risk to droughts and water scarcity,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan . “The World Bank is committed to the government in improving sustainable water resource management. This project will support investments that increase climate resilience, including flood protection, rainwater harvesting and water conservation in these districts.”

The project will implement tailored, cost-effective solutions for both large and small rural settlements, using scalable technologies that help facilitate solid and animal waste management at the household and community levels. It will also establish a water-quality monitoring system to ensure compliance with national standards for drinking water and wastewater. The PRSWSSP will promote safe water handling, hygiene, and water conservation practices at the household level, with a focus on maternal, newborn and child health. 

“The project is expected to yield substantial benefits to rural communities. It will help improve health outcomes by reducing water borne illnesses and ensure service quality and customer care through a financially sustainable public company,” said Farhan Sami, Task Team Leader for the project .

The project will cover 16 districts, with 50 percent of districts drawn from south Punjab, and 25 percent each from central and north Punjab, benefiting 2,000 villages and more than six million people in rural areas. It will also provide training of village councils and community caretakers, which will have complementary responsibilities for operations and maintenance, monitoring and evaluation, and customer service. 

“Child stunting is endemic and a huge constraint on Pakistan’s potential,” said Ghazala Mansuri, co-Task Team Leader for the project . “It impacts a child’s cognitive development and immune system, reducing educational attainment, making illness more likely, and leading to lower productivity and income. Its effects are inter-generational, transmitted from parent to child. This project would provide the template for a transformational shift in human capital accumulation since it addresses all the determinants of stunting.”

The project design was informed by a 2018 flagship report, When Water Becomes a Hazard : A Diagnostic Report on The State of Water Supply, Sanitation and Poverty in Pakistan and Its Impact on Child Stunting, that examined linkages in Pakistan between water and sanitation services, and child stunting. This study also supported environmental sustainability and the need to provide information and support behavioral change in poor rural communities to reduce health risks.

The World Bank in Pakistan Pakistan has been a member of the World Bank since 1950. Since then, the World Bank has provided $40 billion in assistance. The World Bank’s program in Pakistan is governed by the Country Partnership Strategy for FY2015-2020 with four priority areas of engagement: energy, private sector development, inclusion, and service delivery. The current portfolio has 57 projects and a total commitment of $13 billion.

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• v.2022; 2022

Climate Change and Water Crises in Pakistan: Implications on Water Quality and Health Risks

Waseem ishaque.

1 Director Area Study Centre (China), NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Rida Tanvir

2 Department of International Relations, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Mudassir Mukhtar

3 HoD Media and Communication Studies, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Associated Data

The data used to support the findings of this study are included within this article.

Pakistan is vulnerable and most affected by adverse impacts of climate change. The study examines the impact of climate change on Pakistan during the year 2022, resulting into unprecedented heatwave and drought in summers followed by the abnormal rains and floods during monsoon season. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which has been devastated by both drought and floods. While the flood water is gradually receding, the stagnant contaminated water is causing several health risks for the inhabitants. This research argues that water security is the emerging national security challenge for Pakistan. The article investigates the status of water availability vis-a-vis the burgeoning population, agriculture, and other uses of water. Impact of abnormal melting of glaciers, nonavailability of dams for storage of rainwater, and lack of smart means for agriculture water have been examined to empirically validate the arguments.

1. Introduction

Climate change has become international buzzword today and it is “no longer an unfamiliar term, which can be comprehended through personal knowledge, experience, and interactions” [ 1 ]. The phenomenon of climate change is largely attributed to human induced actions, more specifically in terms of emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [ 2 ]. Therefore, the phenomena of climate change are producing many threats on the Earth surface, ranging from droughts, heavy precipitation, and heatwaves to unprecedented tropical cyclones [ 3 ]. All these disasters have varying degree of impact over different geographical zones, resulting into environmental, health, economic, and social impact. There is no denying the fact that the world we live in today is far more vulnerable and affected by the negative impacts of climate change. However, the greatest health impact is being witnessed in the countries which have least share in greenhouse emissions [ 4 ]. There is also strong realization to attend to climate emergency, which is causing water security issues around the globe, and threatens food security, agricultural yield, food supply, and prices with serious implications on sustainable development, poverty, and inequality. The UNICEF warns about the availability and use of water in a nicely crafted statement that “the world needs to get water smart, and everyone has to realize that they have a role to play, and we cannot afford to wait” [ 5 ]. The “climate change is happening right now, and its effects are being felt around the world” [ 6 ].

Pakistan is vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change, therefore, susceptible to unusual weather patterns, which can create strategic challenges [ 7 ]. The rising temperatures are causing rapid melting of glaciers in northern areas and unusual rains as seen in monsoon this year have created mayhem through floods, unprecedented in Pakistan's history in last 30 years. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated that Pakistan is facing “the unrelenting effects of epochal levels of rains and flooding” [ 8 ]. The men and material losses are enormous and therefore, Pakistan is likely to face water crisis, food shortages, and serious implications for human security. Reacting to the recent flood situation in Pakistan, the Finance Minister Mr Miftah Ismail stated that “Pakistan is dealing with the worst effects of the climate change, which has caused over US$ 30 billion loss to Pakistan's economy and displacing 33 million people” [ 9 ]. This study explores the impacts of climate change on the availability, usage, and storage of water in Pakistan. The drought and floods of year 2022 have been taken as case study for analyzing the impacts of climate change across Pakistan by sampling both rural and urban areas. Figure 1 shows the sectoral usage of available water in Pakistan.

Sectoral distribution of water consumption in Pakistan.

2. Materials and Methods

The year 2022 is unprecedented in Pakistan's history of last three decades. The summers produced extreme temperatures which resulted in unusual melting of glaciers in northern areas of Pakistan resulting in partial collapse of bridge near Hassanabad in Hunza [ 10 ] as shown in Figure 2 .

Partial collapse of Hassanabad bridge.

Later, the exceptional monsoon rains produced extraordinary floods across the country, with huge men and material losses. The evolving trends indicate that Pakistan is most vulnerable to climate change. The floods have devastated the agriculture, livestock, and infrastructure. The loss to national economy is estimated at US$ 30 billion [ 11 ]. The survey and data analyses of past two and half decades reveal that Pakistan confronted from absolute dry and drought situations to devastating floods to the extent of witnessing both phenomenon in one calendar year as happening in the ongoing year 2022. The study has been completed by considering drought and floods data from primary and secondary sources with particular focus on this year. The field visits to rural and urban areas of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Baluchistan were conducted for obtaining the first-hand information and data on the impacts of flood situation. The relevant officials in the ministry of climate change and meteorological offices were also interviewed and their views have been incorporated in the study for developing a comprehensive picture, conducting rationale analyses, and arriving at workable findings. The study is very contemporary and relevant and expected to provide valuable policy guidelines to relevant government ministries in Pakistan as they are grappling with the ongoing flood situation and rehabilitation process. Figure 3 highlights the vulnerability of Pakistan to climate change risks in the global context, which has been explored further in the study to empirically prove the vulnerabilities and risks.

Climate risk indexing and Pakistan's vulnerability [ 12 ].

3. Findings

3.1. deciphering the impact of climate change on pakistan.

Climate remains the most debated yet least addressed issue for decades. World leaders have often joined heads to tackle this global phenomenon but with little to no success. From motivational speeches to documentaries and movies on the effects of climate change on the Earth has been narrated time and again but to no avail [ 13 ]. The developed countries remain aloof of devastating effects of greenhouse gas emission is causing to the ozone layer. The growing depletion of the ozone layer is resulting in increased Ultraviolet (UV) radiations level on the surface of Earth, which has detrimental impact on human health resulting in cancer and weak immune system [ 14 ]. These UV radiations have devastating effect on the agriculture sector as well due to low yield of the crops [ 15 ]. Scientists have been talking about the infamous “black hole” in the Antarctic region for years. But the recent research in the year 2022 has discovered a hole in the Tropics (Tropics are the regions of the Earth near the equator) which is seven times bigger than the Antarctic region [ 16 ]. The more alarming situation is that, despite all this, the industrialized countries are less concerned by the deteriorating ozone and increase in global warming. Various protocols and initiatives like Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen accord, and Paris accord had been initiated by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Due to the Sovereign status of the global order, these agreements were not a binding, therefore, the industrial powers contributing the most carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases to the environment withdrew from these accords as it did not serve their economic interests. The major global contributors of the CO 2 emissions are given in Figure 4 :

10 most polluted countries as of 2020 [ 17 ].

Figure 4 gives an account for the 10 most polluted countries in the world as of 2020. However, China remains leading in that aspect in the year 2022 as well. United States remain on second number with 4.4 billion tons of CO 2 emissions, while India is third producing 2.3 billion tons of CO 2 .

According to Figure 5 , the above countries might not appear as the top 10 global CO 2 contributors, but they fall in the top 10 per capita CO 2 contributors, due to their large-scale reliance on oil and small number of populations. United Nations Secretary General Mr Antonio Gutters paid an official visit to Pakistan on 9-10 September 2002 to show solidarity to flood victims and assess the devastations through field visits and official briefings. He stated that the “nature has attacked Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global emissions” [ 19 ] while facing the consequences of developed countries emissions and pollution of climate. He further added that “it was outrageous that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was being put on the back burner, today it is Pakistan and tomorrow, it could be your country” [ 20 ], pointing toward industrialized countries. The Global Climate Index (GCI) 2021 has also vindicated Pakistan's vulnerabilities to climate risks as shown in Table 1 below, where Pakistan stands number 8 [ 21 ] in the vulnerability Index. The analysis presented highlights the severe impacts of climate change on Pakistan ranging from extreme heat and drought to dreadful floods. [ 22 ].

10 most polluting countries per capita 2022 [ 18 ].

Global climate index 2021 [ 22 ].

3.2. Examination of Water Calamities in Pakistan

Water is an essential need for ecosystem and human life. In recent times, it has been a growing concern that “precious blue” is becoming inadequate resource for future of human survival [ 23 ]. The amount of fresh water has remained constant on Earth surface since last 100 years; however, the access to water resources is unbalanced [ 24 ] with the rapid population growth, urbanization, and deforestation. Similarly, other issues, such as technological waste, growing industrialization, global warming, and climate change, all are among the key contributing factors for extreme water scarcity [ 25 ]. Although the water scarcity has emerged as a global challenge today, it has severely hit the underdeveloped countries like Pakistan with serious implications on all sectors. Pakistan stands among top 10 severely “high water risk countries” with agriculture as most affected sector [ 26 ]. Moreover, roughly 80% of the population is facing grave shortage of water during at least 1 month in a year which is very alarming. Under scarce surface water, ground water resources (last resort to water supply) are being over utilized. If appropriate measures are not initiated in time with “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approach, the situation would get worse in time to come and the entire country will face the severe crises of water scarcity by 2025, by most projections “Pakistan could run dry” [ 27 ]. The evolving situation has serious implications on the national security of Pakistan, as it will create challenges for sustainable agriculture production which contributes around 23% of Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and creates job opportunities for around 42% of population [ 28 ]. According to the report published by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Pakistan ranks 14th out of 17 very high-risk countries affected by water scarcity, as more than 1/3rd of available water is wasted due to bad management [ 29 ]. Since 1962, after the formalization of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with India, per inhabitant water availability has plummeted from 5229 cubic meters to about 1187 in 2017, which is continuously on the downward slide [ 30 ]. The latest UN report on Pakistan's growing population indicates that by 2050, the population is likely to exceed 366 million [ 31 ], which will compound the water demand, which is predicted to reach 274-million-acre feet (MAF) by 2025 against available water supply of 191 MAF. This demand and supply gap would continue to grow year on year basis due to growing population and bad water management [ 32 ]. Figure 6 shows graphical representation of expected water situation in Pakistan by 2025 viz-a-viz the population [ 33 ].

Water availability in Pakistan by 2025 taken from Dr Muhammad Ashraf's research report.

3.3. Analysis on Flood Devastations in Pakistan in Year 2022

Most of Pakistan's economy is dependent on the agricultural sector; however, the industrial sector also contributes a great deal to the economic growth of Pakistan. The growing population is directly impacting the environment as the number of vehicles on roads and the number of industries to accommodate these individuals will also increase. The population of Pakistan at the time of independence was 32.5 million; however, as per the 2021 census, the population has increased to 225 million. Although, Pakistan remains significantly low on the global CO 2 emissions list, yet the effects of global warming have reached Pakistan in a sweeping manner [ 34 ]. The issue that industrialized countries failed to realize that the environment does not belong to a single country and when one country damages the ozone layer, the entire world would pay the price for that. The year 2022 was one such year for Pakistan when the effects of climate change brought heavy rainfalls in Pakistan resulting in major loss of lives, infrastructural damage, and massive economic losses to the tune of US$ 30 billion [ 35 ]. The NASA issued satellite imagery on the flood situation in Pakistan, which is given in Figure 7 .

NASA satellite imagery of floods in Pakistan, September 01, 2022.

Torrential rainfall and flooding have wreaked havoc across Pakistan killing over 1600 people including children and destroying infrastructure. According to statement given by Sherry Rehman Minister for Climate Change: “One third of the country is literally under water, a catastrophe of unknown precedent” The data are given in Table 2 and Figure 8 . Therefore, the devastating floods caused by unprecedented impact of climate change have hit Pakistan the most this year seriously impacting all the sectors of economy and society [ 36 ].

Flood devastation in Swat (KPK) and Baluchistan.

Province wise loss suffered because of heavy rain fall [ 36 ].

3.4. Analysis on Drinking Water Quality in Pakistan

The quality of available drinking water in Pakistan is in a dreadful state. Both surface and subsurface water sources are contaminated and disease prone [ 37 ] in major cities as well as rural areas. In the overall context, per capita the availability of water is decreasing precipitously in Pakistan, and the country is ranked as “water stressed” country and fast heading toward “water scarce” country in coming few years [ 38 ]. The evolving situation also creates challenges for availability of water for agricultural production, and daily usage requirements, therefore intensifying the human security issues in Pakistan [ 39 ]. Water pollution is the most common word today in Pakistan, which can be ascribed to numerous aspects affecting quality of available water [ 40 ]. The common causes are an upsurge in the atmospheric temperatures, with an inbuilt tendency to take heat to the threshold of drinking water, microbes, organic chemicals, nutrients, and heavy metals [ 41 ] . The research findings have discovered other factors as well affecting water quality, which include surface debris, sporadic water supply, improper discharge of water supply, proximity of sewage water to drinking water lines, industrial waste which has now become very common in almost all major cities in Pakistan, discharge of untreated sewage water and highly incompetent technical workers and service providers on water disposal projects [ 42 ]. The pollution of water due to geological and natural factors depends on the presence of different chemicals and their concentration in the geological formations in selected areas, while anthropogenic pollution is caused by extensive use of herbicides and pesticides, coal mining, oil refining, careless disposal of garbage, and septic tanks [ 43 ]. Because of such developments, fresh drinking water is available to hardly 20% of population, while 80% population is content with drinking of contaminated water [ 44 ]. The recent floods have further aggravated the situation as vast swaths of land in Pakistan is still under water, which is now contaminated causing several health issues. The ongoing situation has also impurified subsurface drinking water due to seepage of contaminated flood water deep in Earth, and government's inability for effective disposal of sewage water.

3.5. Water Security

Food and energy security is directly influenced by water security for agrarian society like Pakistan, which contributes more than 23% in national GDP. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan as it employs more than 40 million population and guarantor of breadbasket of the country. Therefore, “the loss of major river systems in the past had a domino effect on the thriving civilizations, which became extinct one after the other” [ 45 ]. Pakistan is transitioning from water strained country with declining “per capita fresh drinking water, which is less than 1800 cubic meters per year (m 3 /y) to water scarce country (per capita less than 1000 m 3 /y)” projected by 2035 [ 46 ]. Similarly, river water also receding to 800 m 3 /y is expected in 2026 due to growing population. Therefore, “water security is emerging threat for Pakistan” [ 47 ]. Pakistan is a lower riparian state reliant on the nature and other countries for river's water. India has constructed more than fifty big and small dams on the rivers coming to Pakistan, which are a constant source of irritation in the bilateral relations and vital for Pakistan's water and energy security. Similarly, Afghanistan is also considering construction of dams on Kabul River, which is likely to create two front dilemmas for Pakistan. The situation is even challenging when viewed in the context of availability of only two major dams in Pakistan, Tarbela, and Mangla which were constructed in late 1960s and 1970s; however, “their capacities are reducing due to silting.” While construction of new dams is highly politicized, charged with massive outrage from political parties and masses, therefore, not likely to happen in near future. It is expected that the availability of less water is likely to increase food shortages and create conflict among the federating units and the federation. Similarly, the negative impacts of climate change can cause melting glaciers and unusual pattern of rains, which may lead to flooding as we are witnessing in year 2022.

3.6. Food Security

The Indus Basin, which is the bedrock of agriculture support in Pakistan is seriously threatened by the negative impacts of climate change. The changing weather patterns may result in the reduction of crops yield “(15–20% in cereals) and livestock (20–30%)” [ 48 ], impacting negatively the dairy and poultry as the agriculture and livestock sectors are the “backbone of Pakistan's economy, which contributes 23% to GDP and accounts 60% exports of country” [ 49 ]. The food security is vulnerable to climate change due to reduction in crops and adversarial influences on livestock. Reduced water in real harvesting season is changing the crops patterns and the lands are vulnerable to droughts and flooding as well, which also create massive migrations. The devastations of ongoing floods have created serious food shortages in Pakistan and inflation is also all time high. Pakistan's Prime Minister has already rung the alarm bells by stating that Pakistan is vulnerable to serious food shortage, and it is feared that essential food items may be imported this year and next year as all cultivable lands are under water [ 50 ].

3.7. Implications of Climate Change on the National Mosaic of Pakistan

3.7.1. competition over water resources.

Agriculture-based economies are heavily dependent on the natural resources of the state. This is extremely critical situation for the state to cope with the needs of the masses and economic challenges when there is a scarcity of sustainable renewable and nonrenewable resources. Countries like Pakistan where socioeconomic challenges, such as rising population, lack of political will, internal security issues, urbanization, lack of public policies for managing population, and natural resources are growing at a faster pace as compared with its economic growth. Even the geographical position of the state near the equator is unable to supplement its growing needs and demands. It is an alarming situation for the Pakistan that in the presence of other socioeconomic challenges, the drastic impacts of climate change have also increased its economic and political challenges, while the insufficiency of water reservoirs is creating serious concerns of inter-provincial disharmony. The rising population has not only affected the quantity of water reservoirs but has also depleted the quality in the same manner. The increase in anthropogenic activities is causing water stress on natural reservoirs, while since independence in 1947, the country is facing persistent decline in the availability of water year on year basis due to multitude of factors examined above. According to the estimates of Mr. Jamshed Iqbal Cheema, Chairman Pakistan Agriculture Scientists Association (PASA), in 1947, the capita water availability was 5600 cubic meters, which decreased by 406% from 5260 cubic meters in 1951 to 1038 cubic meters in 2010 and 877 cubic meters in 2020. The PASA estimates that available water will further deplete by 2025 to a level of 660 cubic meters and by 2050 will reach 575 cubic meters as shown in Figure 9 below [ 51 ].

Per capita availability of water reservoirs in Pakistan [ 52 ].

The causes of water shortages in Pakistan exist in two types: (a) incidental causes related to poor water management policies at local level, (b) operational causes include the political conflicts (over the water resources on provincial/institutional level) and the societal differences over water management and distribution. Water issue is not only related with the environmental degradation, but also linked with the social factors as abnormal population growth causes a rise in demand of clean water resources, disturbance of equilibrium between communities, provinces, and water resources distribution. As Pakistan consists of multiple ethnicities and diversified geographical terrain but competition over the access of water resources has often created tensions and conflicts among the federating units. The growing vulnerabilities of communities over the insufficiency of water reservoirs promote lawlessness, antistate sentiments and sense of deprivation among its own nationals. Due to lack of strong monitoring mechanism over channelization of available water, for creating a balanced approach between demand and supply of available water, the population is incentivized for illegal water proliferation. The tacit approval from the water management departments has resulted in water theft cases mostly in Southern Punjab and interior Sindh, as there are many illegal drillings, hidden pipelines, and unrecorded water connections from main supply lines. Such illegal water channels mostly exist adjacent to sanitation systems in cities and rural areas, contaminating the available water. The increase in anthropogenic activities is also causing water stress on natural reservoirs.

Another reason of growing water scarcity is unlawful construction and sanitation systems near or over the water channels, which continuously contaminate water, especially during floods blend these altogether. The role of administration is highly crucial in this matter to control such catastrophic constructions and lessen the pressure on water consumption. The unprotected constructions along rivers, lakes, and streams often cause blockage of natural water channels particularly in monsoon and rainy season resulting into loss of lives, roads network, and infrastructure damage as the enormity of flood damages to clean water channels is immeasurable. In 2010 floods, Pakistan witnessed unimaginable losses as around 20 million people were victims, 1.7 million died, 436 healthcare centers were devastated, 80% food reserves were smashed, 2.9 million households were severely damaged, nearly 1.1 million houses were damaged and $ 9.7 billion economic loss in 135 districts. While the issues of accessing the safe water channels was still in demand after flood (96.8% before vs 96.7%). In year 2022 floods, these losses have increased manifolds and caused unprecedented damages to natural water resources. Around 33 million people are direct victims, death troll rising above 1500, while 110 district of Baluchistan (Quetta, Pishin, Killa Saifullah, Nushki, Jaffarabad, and Washuk), Punjab (Koh e Suleman ranges, Rajanpur, D. G Khan), Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Thatta, Sajawal, and Shaheed Benazir Abad) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Swat and lower/upper Dir) are declared as most calamity hit areas. While 30% water channels are severely affected, and 63% flood victims are struggling for sufficient clean water channels. The economic losses suffered have been estimated to the tune of US$ 30 billion. The analyses amply highlight the insufficiency of available water and demand, compounded by adverse effects of floods during this year.

3.7.2. Negative Impact on Agriculture Sector

Pakistan is heavily relying on agricultural sector for its international exports and domestic food demands, but in the presence of water crisis and conventional irrigation system for its agricultural production, the country will face severe challenges of water scarcity in times to come. According to Global Food and Security Index 2021, Pakistan ranked 80 out of 113 countries [ 53 ] and Global Food and Security Index 2022, it has further slipped by four numbers and now ranks 84 out of 113 countries [ 54 ]. Pakistan lags behind all South Asian countries in food insecurity. The lack of progress in agricultural sector is also linked with the mismanagement of land and water resources, unsatisfactory policies of water governance, exponential population growth, and the negative impacts of climate change. Pakistan has also failed to adopt new strategies like advanced water management in agricultural sector, usage of adaptation methods in yields productions to enhance water consumption in eco-friendly manner, educate farmers about the water recycling and water productivity techniques. While water scarcity is a highly charged political issue in Pakistan as there is a turf war between the provinces and the federation. However, Punjab government took good initiative and introduced national water policy of Pakistan to ensure regularization of water governance system in the country. In the presence of fragile agriculture sector development, climate degradation impacts have worsened the livelihood and yield production. Therefore, on a year-on-year basis, the agriculture yield is squeezing, demand of water is increasing, and unplanned urbanization is resulting into loss of precious agriculture land. The overall impact of these issues is creating negative repercussions on agriculture production and aggravating food security situation in Pakistan.

3.7.3. Water Quality and Public Health Risks

The availability of clean drinking water is biggest national security challenge for Pakistan today. The water proliferation and loss of water supply sources from government record is not only raising the administrative issues but also causing multiple public health problems. The contamination of water along with the presence of sanitary pipelines expose the population with the contagious and chronic diseases like diarrhea, cholera, jaundice, typhoid, hepatitis C, liver cancer, and gastrointestinal infections. The water scarcity in Pakistan has enormous impact on health care system as well as the country is struggling with the diseases that are almost nonexistential in developed countries. The significant findings of this study are that in Pakistan, 50% diseases spread through contaminated water and provide most suitable medium of spread and transfer various bacterial and viral infections from human to human or animals to human as the country is facing the 40% of mortality rate caused by the contaminated water intake, while the frontline victims of waterborne diseases are pregnant women, newly born babies, and early teenage groups. It is also important to note that the primary source of water in Pakistan is sub-surface water channels, which over a period have become the hub of different variants of pathogens. According to World Health Organization (WHO) report, approximately, 2.5 million deaths occur annually in Pakistan from widespread diarrheal diseases caused by bacterial and protozoan agents present in inferior quality of drinking water. Around 80% population is exposed to unsafe water as UNICEF Pakistan has also shared the alarming fact that the well-being and health standards of youngsters are at risk; therefore, each year, 53,000 children under the age of 5 years lose their lives due to unhygienic water as 70% of household work and domestic usage of water in Pakistan is dependent on bacterial water sources. The floods of 2022 have compounded the problems of availability and access to clean drinking water. The field visits to rural and urban Sindh, KPK, and Baluchistan vindicated scarcity and contamination of drinking water, which has been reported by several NGOs and media as well. The stagnant water has been contaminated due to mixing of sewage water and created ideal breading grounds for bacteria causing serious health risks. Nonavailability of compatible medical support, inaccessibility, and nondisposal of flood water have created many health risks and entire population in affected areas is vulnerable to adverse effects of contaminated water. In most areas, the disposal of flood water is left to the nature and the government agencies have demonstrated inability to manage it, therefore, spread of waterborne diseases will continue for prolonged period in future.

4. Policy Recommendations

4.1. legislation for interministerial coordination.

The ministry of climate change should take a lead role and coordinate with all the provinces on the issues of water security. All related agencies and departments should work in harmony with this ministry for synergetic response. Similarly, international engagements would be essential component for successful policy implementation; therefore, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Climate Change should remove overlaps and avoid duplications wherever required.

4.2. Proper Enforcement of Legislation

“Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord 1991” highlights the judicious distribution of Indus River System (IRS) water among the federating units of Pakistan. However, this accord was unable to deal with the conflicts arising due to unfair distribution of water at times. To resolve this issue, “Indus River System Authority” (IRSA) was established in 1992 [ 55 ], through an act of Parliament to work as an institution for Indus water resources regulation and monitoring in Pakistan. However, the problems related to fair water distribution, monitoring and installation system, and the treatment plants lagged during the implementation phase. There always remained issues between Punjab and Sindh regarding unfair water theft. Despite establishment of “Council of Common Interest” (CCI) to resolve the grievances of provinces, but issues persist due to weak implementation mechanism and weak governance. The devolution of power under 18th amendment of the constitution, devolved the water distribution among the rural and urban areas of each province as an internal matter of the provinces; however, water crises remain at large seriously impacting inter-provincial harmony. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) is assigned the task of ensuring clean drinking water across Pakistan. Implementation of water-related policies requires a great deal of realization and urgency on the part of the political elites of Pakistan. The gravity of the issue needs to be addressed as a national emergency, otherwise, Pakistan is vulnerable to water scarcity situations normally witnessed in African continent.

4.3. Judicious Distribution of Water

Being a lower riparian, Sindh is often complaining about the water shortage, especially in the pre-monsoon period each year. The claims made by Sindh government at numerous occasions regarding Punjab stealing its share of water have been denied by Indus River System Authority (IRSA). After the 18th amendment, the allocation of resources to the provinces has been ensured to be judicious; however, the internal distribution of these resources to the rural and urban areas is the responsibility of the provinces. The IRSA is mandated to address, regulate, and develop standard operating procedures (SOPs) for water allocation to the provinces. Regrettably, each province has its own peculiarities in terms of agricultural needs and population, therefore, making the interpretation and implementation of the accord more difficult. To resolve water distribution issues on sustainable basis, the “whole of government approach” is recommended along with on-site consultative visits by the representatives of provincial and federal governments and political leaders for expeditious resolution of conflicting issues. Creating unnecessary fault lines is detrimental to national integration, which should be avoided at all costs.

4.4. Water Treatment Plants and Recycling of Water

Pakistan is in dire need of installing treatment plants as every year, hospitals are flooded with patients, both adults and children suffering from diseases resulting from contaminated water. People living in both urban and rural areas are exposed to contagions and microbial bacteria, which enter the body through water, unsafe for drinking. Not everyone in Pakistan can afford bottled water, therefore, it is the responsibility of the state to provide its citizens with safe drinking water. As we know that Pakistan receives a major portion of heavy rains between the months of July to September, where majority of rainwater ends up in rivers, ponds, while the rest of it results in heavy floods of cities and inhabitants. The government through installation of treatment plants can filter clean drinking water for ensuring public health. Similarly, more wastewater recycling plants are the need of time, which should be installed at priority. In rural areas, wastewater treatment is almost nonexistent, leading to pollution of surface and groundwater [ 56 ]. The government should pay instantaneous attention to the evolving challenges of treatment of wastewater for sparing clean water for drinking purposes and balanced delivery of recycled water to other uses like irrigation.

4.5. Climate Emergency and Disaster Response Mechanism

Pakistan was successful in convincing the world leaders during recently concluded United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) sessions about vulnerabilities to climate risks and the unprecedented impact during year 2022. UN Secretary General Antoni Guterres and US President Joe Biden personally appealed for help for Pakistan to alleviate the suffering and quick rehabilitation of flood victims. It is suggested that Pakistan should consider climate diplomacy as an urgent priority and initiate the process of engagement at bilateral and multilateral levels with developed countries to reduce the vulnerabilities and risks of climate change. Additionally, the disaster response mechanism also needs to be re-energized with strong interagency coordination. The existing structure of national and provincial disaster management authorities should be reinforced through capacity building and professional training. Appropriate equipment for rescue and relief operations also needs to be provided at vulnerable sites for immediate response to save maximum lives. The infrastructure development in flood affected areas should be expedited for which essential resources should be mobilized well in time. Such preparations should be done and rehearsed every year during pre-monsoon season for synergetic and a befitting response to minimize reaction time and save maximum lives.

5. Conclusion

Climate change is the evolving global threat, and Pakistan is most vulnerable from its negative impacts. The year 2022 witnessed extreme drought on one hand, followed by unusual floods over the short span of 2-3 months. Therefore, for Pakistan, alarm bells are ringing to take the holistic stock of situation by declaring climate emergency and adopt “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approaches for a comprehensive response ensuring strong interagency cooperation and capitalizing on the synergetic application of all Elements of National Power (EoNP) for optimum results. It is essential to integrate the respective departments under the umbrella of national and provincial disaster response agencies for harmonious functioning, coordination, and execution. There is dire need to create strong national realization to “conserve, preserve, and proportionally distribute existing water resources” [ 57 ]. Moreover, smart means for spending agriculture water and recycling of water for uses other than drinking would be helpful as such practices have been adopted by most of developed countries. The construction of more water reservoirs is the need of time and current floods across Pakistan are the testimony of this fact. It is felt that this study shall help the relevant government ministries as an academic policy input for addressing water security issues in Pakistan on sustainable basis.

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Conflicts of interest.

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Water Crisis in Pakistan: Manifestation, Causes and the Way Forward

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