climate change in the philippines 2022 essay

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Philippines: Country Climate and Development Report 2022

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Stronger Climate Action Will Support Sustainable Recovery and Accelerate Poverty Reduction in the Philippines

MANILA, November 09, 2022 – Climate change is exacting a heavy toll on Filipinos’ lives, properties, and livelihoods, and left unaddressed, could hamper the country’s ambition of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2040. However, the Philippines has many of the tools and instruments required to reduce damages substantially, according to the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for the Philippines, released today.

With 50 percent of its 111 million population living in urban areas, and many cities in coastal areas, the Philippines is vulnerable to sea level rise. Changes due to the variability and intensity of rainfall in the country and increased temperatures will affect food security and the safety of the population.

Multiple indices rank the Philippines as one of the countries most affected by extreme climate events. The country has experienced highly destructive typhoons almost annually for the past 10 years. Annual losses from typhoons have been estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP.

Climate action in the Philippines must address both extreme and slow-onset events. Adaptation and mitigation actions, some of which are already underway in the country, would reduce vulnerability and future losses if fully implemented.

“Climate impacts threaten to significantly lower the country’s GDP and the well-being of Filipinos by 2040. However, policy actions and investments – principally to protect valuable infrastructure from typhoons and to make agriculture more resilient through climate-smart measures -- could reduce these negative climate impacts by two-thirds,” said World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, Manuela V. Ferro.

The private sector has a crucial role to play in accelerating the adoption of green technologies and ramping up climate finance by working with local financial institutions and regulators.

“ The investments needed to undertake these actions are substantial, but not out of reach, ” said IFC Acting Vice President for Asia and the Pacific, John Gandolfo . “ The business leaders and bankers who embrace climate as a business opportunity and offer these low-carbon technologies, goods and services will be the front runners of our future. ”

The report also undertakes an in-depth analysis of challenges and opportunities for climate-related actions in agriculture, water, energy, and transport. Among the recommendations are:

Avoiding new construction in flood-prone areas.
Improving water storage to reduce the risk of damaging floods and droughts. This will also increase water availability.
Extending irrigation in rainfed areas and promoting climate-smart agriculture practices such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD).
Making social protection programs adaptive and scalable to respond to climate shocks.
Removing obstacles that private actors face in scaling investments in renewable energy.
Ensuring new buildings are energy efficient and climate resilient.

Many climate actions will make the Philippines more resilient while also contributing to mitigating climate change.

“The Philippines would benefit from an energy transition towards more renewable energy. Accelerated decarbonization would reduce electricity costs by about 20 percent below current levels which is good for the country’s competitiveness and would also dramatically reduce air pollution,” said Ferro.

Even with vigorous adaptation efforts, climate change will affect many people. Some climate actions may also have adverse effects on particular groups, such as workers displaced by the move away from high-emission activities. The report recommends that the existing social protection system in the country be strengthened and scaled up to provide support to affected sectors and groups.

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports : The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

10 Things You Should Know About the World Bank Group’s First Batch of Country Climate and Development Reports
CCDR Video link

PRESS RELEASE NO: 2023/025/EAP

In Washington: Kym Smithies [email protected]

In Manila: David Llorito [email protected]

Introduction

Climate change is happening now. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system since the mid-20th century is most likely to be due to human activities; and thus, is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change. Current warming has increasingly posed quite considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. Presently, some autonomous adaptation is taking place, but we need to consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development.

What does it take to ensure that adaptation planning has a scientific basis? Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. This is what climate scientists call a climate change scenario. It is a projection of the response of the climate system to future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and is simulated using climate models. Essentially, it describes possible future changes in climate variables (such as temperatures, rainfall, storminess, winds, etc.) based on baseline climatic conditions.

The climate change scenarios outputs (projections) are an important step forward in improving our understanding of our complex climate, particularly in the future. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Change Scenarios

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models (UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as GCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers wide. It should be noted that GCMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid. Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These emission scenarios cover a range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways. Table 1 presents the four different storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) as defined in the IPCC SRES.

climate change in the philippines 2022 essay

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the future climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its plausible ranges.

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others. These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in models.

For the climate change scenarios in the Philippines presented in this Report, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are limited. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission scenario).

The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. On the other hand, the mid-range emission scenario indicates a future world of very rapid economic growth, with the global population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter and there is rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies with energy generation balanced across all sources. The low-range emission scenario, in contrast, indicates a world with local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing global population, but at a rate lower than of the high-range, intermediate levels of economic development, less rapid and more diverse technological change but oriented towards environment protection and social equity.

To start the climate simulations or model runs, outputs (climate information) from the relatively coarse resolution GCMs are used to provide high resolution (using finer grid boxes, normally 10km-100km) climate details, through the use of downscaling techniques. Downscaling is a method that derives local to regional scale (10km-100km x 10km-100km grids) information from larger-scale models (150km-300km x 150km-300km grids) as shown in Fig.1. The smaller the grid, the finer is the resolution giving more detailed climate information.

The climate simulations presented in this report used boundary data that were from the ECHAM4 and HadCM3Q0 (the regional climate models used in the PRECIS model software).

How were the downscaling techniques applied using the PRECIS model?

To run regional climate models, boundary conditions are needed in order to produce local climate scenarios. These boundary conditions are outputs of the GCMs. For the PRECIS model, the following boundary data and control runs were used:

For the high-range scenario, the GCM boundary data used was from ECHAM4. This is the 4th generation coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which uses a comprehensive parameterization package developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. Downscaling was to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km; thus, allowing more detailed regional information of the projected climate. Simulated baseline climate used for evaluation of the models capacity of reproducing present climate was the 1971-2000 model run. Its outputs were compared with the 1971-2000 observed values.

For the mid-range scenario, the GCM boundary data was from the HadCM3Q0 version 3 of the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre. Downscaling was also to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km and the same validation process was undertaken.

For running the low-range scenario, the same ECHAM4 model was used. However, the validation process was only for the period of 1989 to 2000 because the available GCM boundary data in the model was limited to this period.

The simulations for all 3 scenarios were for three periods; 1971 to 2000, 2020 and 2050. The period 1971 to 2000 simulation is referred to as the baseline climate, outputs of which are used to evaluate the models capacity of reproducing present climate (in other words, the control run). By comparing the outputs (i.e., temperature and rainfall) with the observed values for the 1971 to 2000 period, the models ability to realistically represent the regional climatological features within the country is verified. The differences between the outputs and the observed values are called the biases of the model. The 2020 and 2050 outputs are then mathematically corrected, based on the comparison of the models performance.

The main outputs of the simulations for the three SRES scenarios (high-range, mid-range and low-range) are the following:

projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature
projected changes in minimum and maximum temperatures
projected changes in seasonal rainfall and
projected frequency of extreme events

The seasonal variations are as follows:

the DJF (December, January, February or northeast monsoon locally known as amihan) season
the MAM (March, April, May or summer) season
the JJA (June, July, August or southwest monsoon season, or habagat) season and
the SON (September, October, November or transition from southwest to northeast monsoon) season

On the other hand, extreme events are defined as follows:

extreme temperature (assessed as number of days with maximum temperature greater than 35°C, following the threshold values used in other countries in the Asia Pacific region)
dry days (assessed as number of dry days or day with rainfall equal or less than 2.5mm/day, following the World Meteorological Organization standard definition of dry days used in a number of countries) and
extreme rainfall (assessed as number of days with daily rainfall greater than 300mm, which for wet tropical areas, like the Philippines, is considerably intense that could trigger disastrous events).

How were the uncertainties in the modeling simulations dealt with?

Modeling of our future climate always entails uncertainties. These are inherent in each step in the simulations/modeling done because of a number of reasons. Firstly, emissions scenarios are uncertain. Predicting emissions is largely dependent on how we can predict human behavior, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies (which include predicting results of the international negotiations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Secondly, current understanding of the carbon cycle and of sources and sinks of non-carbon greenhouse gases are still incomplete. Thirdly, consideration of very complex feedback processes in the climate system in the climate models used can also contribute to the uncertainties in the outputs generated as these could not be adequately represented in the models.

But while it is difficult to predict global greenhouse gas emission rates far into the future, it is stressed that projections for up to 2050 show little variation between different emission scenarios, as these near-term changes in climate are strongly affected by greenhouse gases that have already been emitted and will stay in the atmosphere for the next 50 years. Hence, for projections for the near-term until 2065, outputs of the mid-range emission scenario are presented in detail in this Report.

Ideally, numerous climate models and a number of the emission scenarios provided in the SRES should be used in developing the climate change scenarios in order to account for the limitations in each of the models used, and the numerous ways global greenhouse gas emissions would go. The different model outputs should then be analyzed to calculate the median of the future climate projections in the selected time slices. By running more climate models for each emission scenarios, the higher is the statistical confidence in the resulting projections as these constitute the ensemble representing the median values of the model outputs.

The climate projections for the three emission scenarios were obtained using the PRECIS model only due to several constraints and limitations. These constraints and limitations are:

Access to climate models: at the start, PAGASA had not accessed climate models due to computing and technical capacity requirements needed to run them;

Time constraints: the use of currently available computers required substantial computing time to run the models (measured in weeks and months). This had been partly addressed under the capacity upgrading initiatives being implemented by the MDGF Joint Programme which include procurement of more powerful computers and acquiring new downscaling techniques. Improved equipment and new techniques have reduced the computing time requirements to run the models. However, additional time is still needed to run the models using newly acquired downscaling techniques; and

The PAGASA strives to improve confidence in the climate projections and is continuously exerting efforts to upgrade its technical capacities and capabilities. Models are run as soon as these are acquired with the end-goal of producing an ensemble of the projections. Updates on the projections, including comparisons with the current results, will be provided as soon as these are available.

What is the level of confidence in the climate projections?

The IPCC stresses that there is a large degree of uncertainty in predicting what the future world will be despite taking into account all reasonable future developments. Nevertheless, there is high confidence in the occurrence of global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by humans, as affirmed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Global climate simulations done to project climate scenarios until the end of the 21st century indicate that, although there are vast differences between the various scenarios, the values of temperature increase begin to diverge only after the middle of this century (shown in Fig.3). The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases (in particular, that of carbon dioxide) already in the atmosphere is the reason for this behavior of this climate response to largely varying emission scenarios.

Model outputs that represent the plausible local climate scenarios in this Report are indicative to the extent that they reflect the large-scale changes (in the regional climate model used) modified by the projected local conditions in the country.

It also should be stressed further that confidence in the climate change information depends on the variable being considered (e.g., temperature increase, rainfall change, extreme event indices, etc.). In all the model runs regardless of emission scenarios used, there is greater confidence in the projections of mean temperature than that of the others. On the other hand, projections of rainfall and extreme events entail consideration of convective processes which are inherently complex, and thus, limiting the degree of confidence in the outputs.

What are the possible applications of these model-generated climate scenarios?

Climate scenarios are commonly required in climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments to provide alternative views of future conditions considered likely to affect society, systems and sectors, including a quantification of climate risks, challenges and opportunities. climate scenario outputs could be used in any of the following:.

to illustrate projected climate change in a given administrative region/province
to provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies
to communicate potential consequences of climate change (e.g., specifying a future changed climate to estimate potential shifts in say, vegetation, species threatened or at risk of extinction, etc.) and
for strategic planning (e.g., quantifying projected sea level rise and other climate changes for the design of coastal infrastructure/defenses such as sea walls, etc.)

Current Climate and Observed Trends

Current climate change in the philippines.

The world has increasingly been concerned with the changes in our climate due largely to adverse impacts being seen not just globally, but also in regional, national and even, local scales. In 1988, the United Nations established the IPCC to evaluate the risks of climate change and provide objective information to governments and various communities such as the academe, research organizations, private sector, etc. The IPCC has successively done and published its scientific assessment reports on climate change, the first of which was released in 1990. These reports constitute consensus documents produced by numerous lead authors, contributing authors and review experts representing Country Parties of the UNFCCC, including invited eminent scientists in the field from all over the globe.

In 2007, the IPCC made its strongest statement yet on climate change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), when it concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the warming during the last 50 years or so (e.g., since the mid-20th century) is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. It is also very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue into the future, and that these will be larger than those seen in our recent past (IPCC, 2007a).

Fig.4 shows the 0.74 C increase in global mean temperature during the last 150 years compared with the 1961-1990 global average. It is the steep increase in temperature since the mid-20th century that is causing worldwide concern, particularly in terms of increasing vulnerability of poor developing countries, like the Philippines, to adverse impacts of even incremental changes in temperatures.

The IPCC AR4 further states that the substantial body of evidence that support this most recent warming includes rising surface temperature, sea level rise and decrease in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere (shown in Fig.5).

Additionally, there have been changes in extreme events globally and these include;

widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed;
cold days, cold nights and frost becoming less frequent;
hot days, hot nights and heat waves becoming more frequent; and
observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

However, there are differences between and within regions. For instance, in the Southeast Asia region which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed; although magnitude varies from one country to another. Changes in rainfall patterns, characteristically defined by changes in monsoon performance, have also been noted. Analysis of trends of extreme daily events (temperatures and rainfall) in the Asia Pacific region (including Australia and New Zealand, and parts of China and Japan) also indicate spatial coherence in the increase of hot days, warm nights and heat waves, and the decrease of cold days, cold nights and frost; although, there is no definite direction of rainfall change across the entire region (Manton et. al., 2001).

Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

The Philippines, like most parts of the globe, has also exhibited increasing temperatures as shown in Fig.6 below. The graph of observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of 0.648 C or an average of 0.0108 C per year-increase.

The increase in maximum (or daytime) temperatures and minimum (or night time) temperatures are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8. During the last 60 years, maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively.

Analysis of trends of tropical cyclone occurrence or passage within the so-called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year. The trend shows a high variability over the decades but there is no indication of increase in the frequency. However, there is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El NiÑo event (See Fig.10).

Moreover, the analysis on tropical cyclone passage over the three main islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), the 30-year running means show that there has been a slight increase in the Visayas during the 1971 to 2000 as compared with the 1951 to 1980 and 1960-1990 periods (See Fig.11).

To detect trends in extreme daily events, indices had been developed and used. Analysis of extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (hot-days index and cold-nights index, respectively) show there are statistically significant increasing number of hot days but decreasing number of cool nights (as shown in Fig.12 and Fig.13).

However, the trends of increases or decreases in extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant; although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically significant (see in Fig.14). Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, also, not statistically significant (as shown in Fig.15).

The rates of increases or decreases in the trends are point values (i.e., specific values in the synoptic weather stations only) and are available at PAGASA, if needed.

Climate Projections

Projections on seasonal temperature increase and rainfall change, and total frequency of extreme events nationally and in the provinces using the mid-range scenario outputs are presented in this chapter. A comparison of these values with the high- and low- range scenarios in 2020 and 2050 is provided in the technical annexes.

It is to be noted that all the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000) climate. For example, a projected 1.0 C-increase in 2020 in a province means that 1.0 C is added to the baseline mean temperature value of the province as indicated in the table to arrive at the value of projected mean temperature. Therefore, if the baseline mean temperature is 27.8 C, then the projected mean temperature in the future is (27.8 C + 1.0 C) or 28.8 C.

In a similar manner, for say, a +25%-rainfall change in a province, it means that 25% of the seasonal mean rainfall value in the said province (from table of baseline climate) is added to the mean value. Thus, if the baseline seasonal rainfall is 900mm, then projected rainfall in the future is 900mm + 225mm or 1125mm.

This means that we are already experiencing some of the climate change shown in the findings under the mid-range scenario, as we are now into the second decade of the century. Classification of climate used the Corona's four climate types (Types I to IV), based on monthly rainfall received during the year. A province is considered to have Type I climate if there is a distinct dry and a wet season; wet from June to November and dry, the rest of the year. Type II climate is when there is no dry period at all throughout the year, with a pronounced wet season from November to February. On the other hand, Type III climate is when there is a short dry season, usually from February to April, and Type IV climate is when the rainfall is almost evenly distributed during the whole year. The climate classification in the Philippines is shown in Fig.16.

Seasonal Temperature Change

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months. Mean temperatures in all areas in the Philippines are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050. Likewise, all seasonal mean temperatures will also have increases in these time slices; and these increases during the four seasons are quite consistent in all parts of the country. Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season.

Seasonal Rainfall Change

Generally, there is reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country during the summer (MAM) season. However, rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON) season in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, and also, during the northeast monsoon (DJF) season, particularly, in provinces/areas characterized as Type II climate in 2020 and 2050. There is however, generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.

There are varied trends in the magnitude and direction of the rainfall changes, both in 2020 and 2050. What the projections clearly indicate are the likely increase in the performance of the southwest and the northeast monsoons in the provinces exposed to these climate controls when they prevail over the country. Moreover, the usually wet seasons become wetter with the usually dry seasons becoming also drier; and these could lead to more occurrences of floods and dry spells/droughts, respectively.

Extreme Temperature Events

Hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent in the future. Fig.19 shows that the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C (following value used by other countries in the Asia Pacific region in extreme events analysis) is increasing in 2020 and 2050.

Extreme Rainfall Events

Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only, but number of dry days is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050. Figures 20 and 21 show the projected increase in number of dry days (with dry day defined as that with rainfall less than 2.5mm) and the increase in number of days with extreme rainfall (defined as daily rainfall exceeding 300 mm) compared with the observed (baseline) values, respectively.

Climate Projections for Provinces

Impacts of climate change.

Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. Its adverse impacts are already being seen and may intensify exponentially over time if nothing is done to reduce further emissions of greenhouse gases. Decisively dealing NOW with climate change is key to ensuring sustainable development, poverty eradication and safeguarding economic growth. Scientific assessments indicate that the cost of inaction now will be more costly in the future. Thus, economic development needs to be shifted to a low-carbon emission path.

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the problem. The Philippines signed the UNFCCC on 12 June 1992 and ratified the international treaty on 2 August 1994. Presently, the Convention enjoys near-universal membership, with 194 Country Parties.

Recognizing that the climate system is a shared resource which is greatly affected by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the UNFCCC has set out an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. Its ultimate objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Countries are actively discussing and negotiating ways to deal with the climate change problem within the UNFCCC using two central approaches. The first task is to address the root cause by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. The means to achieve this are very contentious, as it will require radical changes in the way many societies are organized, especially in respect to fossil fuel use, industry operations, land use, and development. Within the climate change arena, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is called mitigation.

The second task in responding to climate change is to manage its impacts. Future impacts on the environment and society are now inevitable, owing to the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere from past decades of industrial and other human activities, and to the added amounts from continued emissions over the next few decades until such time as mitigation policies and actions become effective. We are therefore committed to changes in the climate. Taking steps to cope with the changed climate conditions both in terms of reducing adverse impacts and taking advantage of potential benefits is called adaptation.

What if the emissions are less or greater?

Responses of the local climate to the mid-range compared to the high- and low-range scenarios are as shown in Fig. 22 below. Although there are vast differences in the projections, the so-called temperature anomalies or difference in surface temperature increase begin to diverge only in the middle of the 21st century. As has already been stated, the climate in the next 30 to 40 years is greatly influenced by past greenhouse gas emissions. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, with the exception of methane (with a lifetime of only 13 years), will mean that it will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize even if mitigation measures are put in place, not withstanding that in the near future, there could be some off-setting between sulfate aerosols (cooling effect) and the greenhouse gas concentrations (warming effect).

Likely impacts of Climate Change

A warmer world is certain to impact on systems and sectors; although, magnitude of impacts will depend on factors such as sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risks. In most cases, likely impacts will be adverse. However, there could be instances when likely impacts present opportunities for potential benefits as in the case of the so-called carbon fertilization effect in which increased carbon dioxide could lead to increased yield provided temperatures do not exceed threshold values for a given crop/cultivar.

Water Resources

In areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress (both in quantity and quality), which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts, particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement. Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount of water in watersheds and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers, especially those in rain fed areas, thereby, limiting agricultural production. Likewise, energy production from dams could also be rendered insufficient in those areas where rainfall is projected to decrease, and thus, could largely affect the energy sufficiency program of the country. Design of infrastructure, particularly of dams, will need to be re-visited to ensure that these will not be severely affected by the projected longer drier periods.

In areas where rainfall could be intense during wet periods, flooding events would follow and may pose danger to human settlements and infrastructure, in terms of landslides and mudslides, most especially, in geologically weak areas. Additionally, these flooding events could impact severely on public infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, including classrooms, evacuation centers, and hospitals.

Adaptive capacity is enhanced when impact and vulnerability assessments are used as the basis of strategic and long-term planning for adaptation. Assessments would indicate areas where critical water shortages can be expected leading to possible reduction of water available for domestic consumption, less irrigation service delivery, and possibly, decreased energy generation in dams. Note that the adverse impacts would cascade, so that long-term pro-active planning for these possible impacts is imperative in order to be able to respond effectively, and avoid maladaptations. A number of adaptation strategies should be considered. Among the wide array of cost effective options are rational water management, planning to avoid mismatch between water supply and demand through policies, upgrading/rehabilitation of dams where these are cost-effective, changes in cropping patterns in agricultural areas, establishing rain water collection facilities, where possible, and early warning systems.

Changes in rainfall regimes and patterns resulting to increase/decrease in water use and temperature increases could lead to a change in the forests ecosystem, particularly in areas where the rains are severely limited, and can no longer provide favorable conditions for certain highly sensitive species. Some of our forests could face die-backs. Additionally, drier periods and warmer temperatures, especially during the warm phase of El Nino events, could cause forest fires. A very likely threat to communities that largely depend on the ecological services provided by forests is that they may face the need to alter their traditions and livelihoods. This change in practices and behavior can lead to further degradation of the environment as they resort to more extensive agricultural production in already degraded areas.

Adverse impacts on forestry areas and resources could be expected to multiply in a future warmer world. The value of impact and vulnerability assessments could not be underscored. These assessments would help decision makers and stakeholders identify the best option to address the different impacts on forest areas, watersheds and agroforestry. Indigenous communities have to plan for climate-resilient alternative livelihoods. Thus, it is highly important to plan for rational forest management, particularly, in protected areas and in ancestral domains. One of the more important issues to consider is how to safeguard livelihoods in affected communities so as not to further exacerbate land degradation. Early warning systems in this sector will play a very important role in forest protection through avoidance and control/containment of forest fires.

Agriculture

Agriculture in the country could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns. Crops have been shown to suffer decreases in yields whenever temperatures have exceeded threshold values and possibly result to spikelet sterility, as in the case of rice. The reduction in crop yield would remain unmitigated or even aggravated if management technologies are not put in place. Additionally, in areas where rain patterns change or when extreme events such as floods or droughts happen more often, grain and other agricultural produce could suffer shortfalls in the absence of effective and timely interventions. Tropical cyclones, particularly if there will be an increase in numbers and/or strength will continue to exert pressure on agricultural production.

Moreover, temperature increases coupled with rainfall changes could affect the incidence/outbreaks of pests and diseases, both in plants and animals. The pathways through which diseases and pests could be triggered and rendered most favorable to spread are still largely unknown. It is therefore important that research focus on these issues.

In the fisheries sub-sector, migration of fish to cooler and deeper waters would force the fisher folks to travel further from the coasts in order to increase their catch. Seaweed production, already being practiced as an adaptation to climate change in a number of poor and depressed coastal communities could also be impacted adversely.

Decreased yields and inadequate job opportunities in the agricultural sector could lead to migration and shifts in population, resulting to more pressure in already depressed urban areas, particularly in mega cities. Food security will largely be affected, especially if timely, effective and efficient interventions are not put in place. Insufficient food supply could further lead to more malnutrition, higher poverty levels, and possibly, heightened social unrest and conflict in certain areas in the country, and even among the indigenous tribes.

A careful assessment of primary and secondary impacts in this sector, particularly, in production systems and livelihoods will go a long way in avoiding food security and livelihood issues. Proactive planning (short- and long-term adaptation measures) will help in attaining poverty eradication, sufficient nutrition and secure livelihoods goals. There is a wide cross-section of adaptation strategies that could be put in place, such as horizontal and vertical diversification of crops, farmer field schools which incorporate use of weather/climate information in agricultural operations, including policy environment for subsidies and climate-friendly agricultural technologies, weather-based insurance, and others. To date, there has not been much R&D that has been done on inland and marine fisheries technologies, a research agenda on resilient marine sector could form part of long-term planning for this subsector.

Coastal Resources

The countrys coastal resources are highly vulnerable due to its extensive coastlines. Sea level rise is highly likely in a changing climate, and low-lying islands will face permanent inundation in the future. The combined effects of continued temperature increases, changes in rainfall and accelerated sea level rise, and tropical cyclone occurrences including the associated storm surges would expose coastal communities to higher levels of threat to life and property. The livelihood of these communities would also be threatened in terms of further stress to their fishing opportunities, loss of productive agricultural lands and saltwater intrusion, among others.

Impact and vulnerability assessment as well as adaptation planning for these coastal areas are of high priority. Adaptation measures range from physical structures such as sea walls where they still are cost-effective, to development/revision of land use plans using risk maps as the basis, to early warning systems for severe weather, including advisories on storm surge probabilities, as well as planning for and developing resilient livelihoods where traditional fishing/ agriculture are no longer viable.

Human health is one of the most vital sectors which will be severely affected by climate change. Incremental increases in temperatures and rain regimes could trigger a number of adverse impacts; in particular, the outbreak and spread of water-based and vector-borne diseases leading to higher morbidity and mortality; increased incidence of pulmonary illnesses among young children and cardiovascular diseases among the elderly. In addition, there could also be increased health risk from poor air quality especially in urbanized areas.

Surveillance systems and infrastructure for monitoring and prevention of epidemics could also be under severe stress when there is a confluence of circumstances. Hospitals and clinics, and evacuation centers and resettlement areas could also be severely affected under increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events.

Moreover, malnutrition is expected to become more severe with more frequent occurrences of extreme events that disrupt food supply and provision of health services. The services of the Department of Health will be severely tested unless early and periodic assessments of plausible impacts of climate change are undertaken.

Scientific assessments have indicated that the Earth is now committed to continued and faster warming unless drastic global mitigation action is put in place the soonest. The likely impacts of climate change are numerous and most could seriously hinder the realization of targets set under the Millennium Development Goals; and thus, sustainable development. Under the UNFCCC, Country Parties have common but differentiated responsibilities. All Country Parties share the common responsibility of protecting the climate system but must shoulder different responsibilities. This means that the developed countries including those whose economies are in transition (or the so-called Annex 1 Parties) have an obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions based on their emissions at 1990 levels and provide assistance to developing countries (or the so-called non-Annex 1 Parties) to adapt to impacts of climate change.

In addition, the commitment to mitigate or reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by countries which share the responsibility of having historically caused this global problem, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol, is dictated by the imperative to avoid what climate scientists refer to as the climate change tipping point. Tipping point is defined as the maximum temperature increase that could happen within the century, which could lead to sudden and dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth. The effects of these changes could be varied from a dramatic rise in sea levels that could flood coastal regions to widespread crop failures. But, it still is possible to avoid them with cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, both in the developed and developing countries, in particular, those which are now fast approaching the emission levels seen in rich countries.

In the Philippines, there are now a number of assisted climate change adaptation programmes and projects that are being implemented. Among these are the Millennium Development Goals Fund 1656: Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change funded by the Government of Spain, the Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (which aims to develop the resiliency and test adaptation strategies that will develop the resiliency of farms and natural resource management to the effects of climate change) funded by the Global Environmental Facility(GEF) through the World Bank, the Adaptation to Climate Change and Conservation of Biodiversity Project and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (envisioned to develop the adaptation capacity of communities), both funded by the GTZ, Germany.

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Climate inaction puts economy at risk

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

THE IMPACT of climate change is likely to slash the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 13.6% by 2040 if there is no action by the government and private sector, the World Bank said on Tuesday.

“Damages from climate change are a threat to the Philippine economy. It is likely to reduce GDP substantially, but the range of possible outcomes is wide,” World Bank Lead Economist Souleymane Coulibaly said at a briefing on its Philippines Country Climate Development Report.

Mr. Coulibaly said World Bank estimates showed the Philippines may see a 3.2% average loss in GDP by 2030, and as much as a 5.7% loss in GDP by 2040.

“However, the impact could be much worse reaching 13.6% in 2040 if no actions are taken…with the worst e ff ects in capital-intensive industries,” he added.

World Bank Country Director for the Philippines Ndiame Diop said that the Philippines is “uniquely vulnerable” to climate change.

“In 2022, the Philippines ranked number one among the countries most affected by extreme weather events…climate change is often called a silent crisis, but in the Philippines, it is not silent. It’s an imposing problem and a real threat,” he added.

Climate-related hazards have caused P506.1 billion in losses and damage to the Philippines over the past decade, the Department of Finance (DoF) said last year.

Signs of climate change can be seen through rising temperatures, longer and more intense droughts, more severe tropical storms and increasing sea levels.

The Philippines is struck by around 20 tropical cyclones every year, but has seen much stronger typhoons in recent years.

“Temperatures in the Philippines will continue to rise by the end of the 21 st century. Rainfall patterns will change and intensify, and extreme weather will become more frequent. Without action, climate change will impose substantial economic and human costs, a ff ecting the poorest households the most,” Mr. Diop said.

Stefano Pagiola, World Bank senior environmental economist, said climate change poses major risks for development in the Philippines and that policy inaction would result in substantial economic and human costs, especially for the poor.

“These will hamper economic activities and development…adaptation is a priority for the Philippines. It is not just reducing risk and damage but addressing slow onset events like sea level rising,” he said.

In the report, the World Bank noted the Philippines has taken action against climate change but this has been mostly “uneven.”

“Responsibilities over climate action are often dispersed and duplicative, policies are partially implemented, and there is no capacity or resources from local government units,” Mr. Pagiola said.

Agriculture, which contributes around a tenth of GDP, is one of the most vulnerable sectors against climate change, he added.

“It is affected directly by temperature changes and direct damage by typhoons. Because of climate change, productivity of many crops will decline. Rain-fed crops are most a ff ected, such as rice, sugarcane, and maize,” Mr. Pagiola said.

The Philippines should adopt climate-smart agriculture practices, but this would depend on whether or not this is fi nancially attractive for farmers, he added.

According to Mr. Coulibaly, the Philippines’ early adaptation can reduce the impact of climate change on the economy. “Measures to adapt to climate change will reduce economic losses by two-thirds,” he said.

World Bank economists said the Philippines should ramp up e ff orts to reduce emission levels.

The Philippines has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75% from 2020 to 2030.

“Mitigation measures could be associated with a positive impact on GDP if carbon tax revenues are used for investment. The GDP could increase by about 0.5% and generate about 80,000 jobs in 2040,” Mr. Coulibaly said.

He noted there is a need for public and private investments to fi nance climate-resilient infrastructure and accelerate the adoption of green technologies.

“On the private side, issuing environmental social and governance bonds under the recently introduced Sustainable Finance Framework (SFF) could leverage private financing for climate actions,” he added.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan, who also heads the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), said there is a need to integrate climate action in the country’s development plans.

“Perhaps no other issue is more important — none more existential and critical to humanity’s future, at least, at this point in history, than climate change,” he said in a pre-recorded message.

“The Philippines also has a running ecological deficit, wherein our ecological footprint goes beyond our area’s natural capacity. If we do not get our act right soon, more communities will be routinely displaced, more economic activities disrupted, and more agricultural systems devastated due to these extreme, climate change-induced weather conditions,” he added.

Mr. Balisacan said the upcoming Philippine Development Plan for 2023-2028 includes priority actions for a “greener economy and more sustainable, affordable, and livable residential areas by 2028.”

“Examples of such priority actions will include mechanisms involving carbon pricing and incentivizing local government units to focus on more climate-friendly projects, such as electric vehicles, sustainable tourism, biodiversity protection, and energy efficiency,” he added.

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JOIN A TRAINING

The Philippines: Leading the Way In the Climate Fight

The Philippines is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate disasters. With more than 7,100 islands and an estimated 36,298 kilometers of coastline, more than 60 percent of the Filipino population resides within the coastal zone and are acutely impacted by climate change . Dangers include food and fresh water scarcity, damage to infrastructure and devastating sea-level rise. However, with an innate understanding of the acute impacts of climate change, the Philippines is one of the world's strongest voices leading the global movement, combatting the problem and ultimately setting an example in adapting to climate change. The nation is acting with urency and commitment — passing legislation, promoting the use of renewable energy and focusing on country-wide conservation.

That is why former US Vice President Al Gore and The Climate Reality Project hosted the 31st Climate Reality Leadership Corps Training in Manila. The Climate Reality Leadership Corps is a global network of activists committed to taking on the climate crisis and working to solve the greatest challenge of our time. The decade-long program has worked with thousands of individuals, providing training in climate science, communications, and organizing to tell the story of climate change and inspire leaders to be agents of change in their local communities.

As the president and CEO of The Climate Reality Project, I am thrilled to contribute to the training of more than 700 new Climate Reality Leaders . These individuals from all over the world are leaders in their own communities, local governments, and businesses, who each care deeply about combatting climate change. At the training, they had the opportunity to learn from some of the best and brightest in their respective fields including Vice President Gore, Senator Loren Legarda, and Mayor of Tacloban Alfred Romualdez as well as world-class scientists, policy-makers, faith leaders, communicators, and technical specialists. These leaders offered specific guidance to trainees on the science of climate change, the cost of climate impacts, and the Paris Agreement that established the framework to transition to a global clean energy economy. After the training, trainees emerged as energized and skilled communicators with the knowledge, tools, and drive to take action, educating diverse global communities on the costs of carbon pollution and what can be done to solve the climate crisis.

Unsurprisingly, a large percentage of the trainees who attended the event are Filipino. This means that after the training, the great work on climate solutions already happening in the Philippines will accelerate.

Post-COP 21 this could not be more important.

The agreement reached in Paris was a monumental step in the effort to combat climate change with 195 nations agreeing upon an international plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. However, now we have to turn words into action . Success is 100 percent dependent on its provisions being strengthened and implemented over time. Here in the Philippines, that means transitioning the energy economy from coal to renewable energy resources and working to adapt to the realities of climate change .

The Philippines has long relied on dirty coal for energy. In fact, a 300-megawatt coal-fired power plan came online only a few weeks after the Philippines signed the Paris agreement — and this is the first of dozens of coal-fired power plants currently planned. Instead of supporting an energy resource we know is damaging, we must encourage banks and investors to embrace the revolution in renewable energy and encourage the growth and development of the clean energy economy here in the Philippines. The islands have with abundant renewable energy resources such as sun, wind, and ocean tides — now we need to prioritize investing in the infrastructure that turns these existing power sources into reality.

Furthermore, a significant part of the agreement signed by the Philippines in Paris requires conserving, enhancing, and restoring forests country-wide. Over half of the country's commitment to reducing greenhouse gasses is based on plans to avoid deforestation and promote reforestation. Strong support for programs such as the Department of Environment and Natural Resources efforts to restore the country's mangroves, including those running from eastern Samar to Southern Leyte, can make a significant difference in both the reduction of greenhouse gases and mitigating the potential risk and destruction from future storms.

The Philippines is one of the best-positioned countries to make a difference in the climate fight. My hope for the Manila training is that the trainees leave inspired to lead change in their own communities, including supporting and advocating for the crucial policies and changes needed as laid out by the Paris Agreement. If so, I am confident that the Philippines can play a key role in leading the world in halting the progressive destruction of climate change and ensure a sustainable future for us all.

Click here to learn more about how you can make a difference in fighting climate change by becoming a Climate Reality Leader.

Climate change and mental health in the Philippines

Citation Count

HIV Service Delivery Innovations in the Philippines during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Geopsychiatry and political determinants of mental health in the philippines., mental health service, training, promotion, and research during typhoons: climate change experiences from the philippines., a systematic review of the impact of disaster on the mental health of medical responders., principles of social psychiatry, climate change and mental health: a scoping review, mental health services in the philippines., psychological sequelae of the 2013 super typhoon haiyan among survivor-responders., related papers (5), global mental health and the diada project., global mental health: from science to action., globalising mental health or pathologising the global south mapping the ethics, theory and practice of global mental health, cost of climate change: risk of building loss from typhoon in south korea, trending questions (3).

Challenges faced by psychology practitioners in the Philippines include addressing persistent mental health issues post-disasters and improving mental health services due to climate change impacts, as highlighted in the study.

The provided paper does not mention anything about the mental health issues of street vendors in the Philippines. The paper focuses on the mental health repercussions of the climate crisis, specifically in the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan.

The provided paper does not mention anything about the mental health of street vendors in the Philippines.

By providing an email address. I agree to the Terms of Use and acknowledge that I have read the Privacy Policy .

Majority of Filipinos noticed climate change impacts in 2023, survey shows

The majority, or 65 percent, of Filipinos noted a significant change in their respective area’s climate in 2023, based on the results of a Pulse Survey Research survey.

DRY SPELL Cracks appear on the soil in rice lands due to lack of water in irrigation canals in Libon town in Albay province.—INQUIRER FILE PHOTO / MICHAEL B. JAUCIAN

MANILA, Philippines — The majority, or 65 percent, of Filipinos noted a significant change in their respective area’s climate in 2023, based on the results of a Pulse Survey Research survey.

The survey was conducted on 1,200 adult respondents from September 10 to 14 through in-person interviews, with a ± 2.8 percent error margin at the 95 percent confidence level.

According to Pulse Asia, 65 percent of the survey’s respondents said that they experienced a “big change” in their respective areas’ climate in the past three years, while 24 percent said they were “undecided,” and 11 percent noted only a “small change.”

“These figures are about the same as those recorded in June 2022 both at the national level [at] 63 percent,” Pulse Asia noted.

Visayas saw the highest increase of respondents noticing big changes in their climate from 65 percent in June 2022 to 81 percent in 2023, followed by Metro Manila from 66 to 75 percent and Mindanao from 55 to 65 percent.

Balance Luzon, on the other hand, dropped by 11 percent from 66 to 55 percent as the percentage of undecided respondents increased by 14 percent from 24 to 38 percent.

Knowledge about climate change

Meanwhile, the majority of Filipinos claimed that they have little to sufficient knowledge about climate change.

Forty-four percent of respondents claimed to have “not wide but sufficient knowledge” of climate change nationwide, while 40 percent said they have “little knowledge.”

Only 11 percent of respondents said they have wide knowledge about the environmental crisis, while 5 percent said they have “almost no knowledge” if none at all.

Sixty-eight percent of the respondents said that they believed climate change is “dangerous” to the environment — a slight drop from the previous year’s 70 percent — while 21 percent were “undecided.”

Alarmingly, the number of respondents who said it was not dangerous rose from six to 11 percent.

READ: Climate change impact: Deadlier diseases

When asked by Pulse Asia about climate change’s effect on the country, 69 percent said it was “dangerous,” 21 percent said they were undecided, while 10 percent said there was no danger posed by the crisis.

READ: Don’t care about climate change? Wait until it hits you in the face

Meanwhile, 71 percent also said that climate change posed danger to their families, 17 percent said they were undecided, while 12 percent said that it was not dangerous.

Why do calamities happen?

The same survey also showed that while the number of respondents who believed calamities happen due to human-made environmental destruction remained in the majority, it dropped by 18 percent from 64 to 46 percent.

READ: 93% of Filipinos felt impact of climate change; optimism still prevails – SWS

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Thirty-two percent (from the previous year’s 19 percent) said they believed that it was a natural phenomenon that occurs worldwide, while 21 percent (from the previous year’s 15 percent) said it was divine punishment or “God’s punishment or warning to nations turning to evil ways.”

Meanwhile, only 1 percent said they did not know.

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April 24, 2024

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'So hot you can't breathe': Extreme heat hits the Philippines

by Cecil MORELLA

The heat index was expected to reach the 'danger' level of 42 degrees Celsius or higher in at least 30 cities and municipalities of the Philippines

Extreme heat scorched the Philippines on Wednesday, forcing thousands of schools to suspend in-person classes and prompting warnings for people to limit the amount of time spent outdoors.

The months of March, April and May are typically the hottest and driest in the archipelago nation, but conditions this year have been exacerbated by the El Niño weather phenomenon.

"It's so hot you can't breathe," said Erlin Tumaron, 60, who works at a seaside resort in Cavite province, south of Manila, where the heat index reached 47 degrees Celsius (117 degrees Fahrenheit) on Tuesday.

"It's surprising our pools are still empty. You would expect people to come and take a swim, but it seems they're reluctant to leave their homes because of the heat."

The heat index was expected to reach the "danger" level of 42C or higher in at least 30 cities and municipalities on Wednesday, the state weather forecaster said.

The heat index measures what a temperature feels like, taking into account humidity.

The Department of Education, which oversees more than 47,600 schools, said nearly 6,700 schools suspended in-person classes on Wednesday.

There was a 50 percent chance of the heat intensifying in the coming days, said Ana Solis, chief climatologist at the state weather forecaster.

"We need to limit the time we spend outdoors, drink plenty of water, bring umbrellas and hats when going outdoors," Solis told AFP.

Solis said El Niño was the reason for the "extreme heat" affecting swaths of the country.

Around half the country's provinces are officially in drought.

'It's really hot here'

The northern municipality of Aparri endured a heat index of 48C on Tuesday, the highest in the country, and was expected to hit 45C on Wednesday.

The actual maximum air temperature was 36.4C (97.5F) on Tuesday, with 35C forecast for Wednesday.

"It's really hot here," Eric Vista of the municipal disaster agency told AFP.

Vista said a shower of rain on Tuesday night offered some temporary relief but it was "back to being super hot" on Wednesday.

Sweltering temperatures in the capital Manila forced more than 400 schools to switch to remote learning. The heat index reached 45C on Tuesday and was expected to hit 44C on Wednesday.

Tuesday's actual high in the city was 37.1C.

In drought-stricken Occidental Mindoro province, government employee Mary Ann Gener said people working indoors where there was air conditioning were fine.

"But it's terrible for those outside," she said.

"You get a headache immediately after you go out. You really need to hydrate."

In Dagupan city, north of Manila, university employee Edz Alteros said she and her colleagues no longer went out for lunch because of the heat.

The heat index there reached 47C on Tuesday.

"We get somebody to buy food and we eat inside the office," Alteros, 27, said.

"The air conditioning is set at 14-18C during the hottest part of the day, but we ease up at other times to prevent the aircon breaking down."

Global temperatures hit record highs last year, and the United Nation's weather and climate agency said Tuesday that Asia was warming at a particularly rapid pace.

The Philippines ranks among the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

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Philippines to endure extreme heat until mid-May

Extreme heat has scorched Southeast Asia in recent days, prompting thousands of schools to suspend in-person classes and authorities to issue health warnings.

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Philippines to endure extreme heat until mid-May

nusually hot weather in the Philippines was expected to last until mid-May, a forecaster said Sunday, after the temperature hit a record high in the capital Manila.

In the Philippines, many people flocked to air-conditioned shopping malls and swimming pools for relief from the relentless heat.

"This is the hottest I've ever experienced here," said Nancy Bautista, 65, whose resort in Cavite province near Manila was fully booked due to the hot weather.

"Many of our guests are friends and families. They swim in the pool to fight the heat."

The temperature in Manila hit a record high of 38.8 degrees Celsius (101.8 degrees Fahrenheit) on Saturday with the heat index reaching 45C, data from the state weather forecaster showed.

The heat index measures what a temperature feels like, taking into account humidity.

The months of March, April and May are typically the hottest and driest time of the year, but this year's conditions have been exacerbated by the El Nino weather phenomenon.

"All places in the country, not necessarily just Metro Manila, are expected to have hotter temperatures until the second week of May," Glaiza Escullar of the state weather forecaster told AFP.

"There is a possibility that the areas will exceed those temperatures being measured today until the second week of May."

Camiling municipality in Tarlac province, north of Manila, recorded a temperature of 40.3C on Saturday -- the country's highest this year.

As the mercury rose, Gerise Reyes, 31, planned to take her two-year-old daughter to a shopping mall near Manila.

"It's hot here at home. This is the hottest I've ever experienced especially between 10:00 am and 4:00 pm," she said.

"We need a free aircon to cut our electricity bill."

Global temperatures hit record highs last year, and the United Nations' weather and climate agency said Tuesday that Asia was warming at a particularly rapid pace.

The Philippines ranks among the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

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Philippines Country Climate and Development Report

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Integrating climate and development is a pillar of the WBG’s new Climate Change Action Plan 2021– 2025. To advance this, the WBG has launched a new, core diagnostic tool: The Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). The CCDR covers various areas related to climate and development, such as the country’s climate commitments, policies, and capacities, priorities, macroeconomic and financial policies for climate. The report identifies main pathways to support low-carbon development and address climate vulnerabilities and suggests priority and impactful actions, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from climate actions.

At the report presentation, we aim to discuss (a) how climate change will affect the country’s ability to meet its development goals including green, resilient, and inclusive development; and (b) identify opportunities for climate action among the public and private sector.

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Philippines Closes Schools as Heat Soars to ‘Danger’ Level

Scorching temperatures coincided with a nationwide strike of jeepneys, the main mode of public transport in the country.

A passenger in a jeepney using a portable electric fan during a heat wave in Manila on Monday.

By Jason Gutierrez

Reporting from Manila

The Philippines closed all public schools on Monday and Tuesday because of dangerously high temperatures, moving classes online in a country where schools are typically shut because of tropical storms.

Over the past week, average temperatures in many parts of the country topped 40 degrees Celsius, or more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Extreme heat is forecast this week to blanket almost the entire country, with the heat index in some regions rising to at least 42 degrees Celsius, or “danger” level, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. That designation is the second highest on the agency’s heat index scale. It advised people to avoid exposure to the sun or risk heat stroke, heat exhaustion and cramps.

In metropolitan Manila, where the heat index is forecast to hit 45 degrees Celsius early this week, residents in overcrowded slums have been cooling off by setting up colorful inflatable pools on busy roads. Others in this megacity have been dipping into Manila Bay, flouting rules that prohibit swimming in its polluted waters.

In its advisory on school closures, the Department of Education on Sunday said the extreme weather coincided with a nationwide strike of jeepneys, the colorful, open-air vehicles that are the main mode of public transportation in the Philippines. Jeepney drivers are protesting a government plan to phase out their rides — which trace their origins to U.S. military jeeps — and replace them with modern, more energy-efficient minibuses.

The extreme heat had already forced some schools to cancel classes before the government’s call for closures. The Jesus Good Shepherd School in Imus, a city south of Manila, last week sent students back home because of soaring temperatures, even though the private institution is among the small minority of schools in the country that has an air conditioner in every classroom.

“It is hard for the students and teachers alike to concentrate, because the air-con is struggling, too,” said Ana Marie Macarimbang, a fifth-grade teacher at the school who has taught for nearly two decades. “We are in a tropical country, yes, but the heat now is more intense than I can remember.”

Weather-related school closures in the Philippines have historically been more common during the typhoon season, which peaks between July and October . The current closures, teacher’s groups have contended, could have been avoided had the authorities not changed the school calendar after the pandemic. The school year now runs from August to May, roughly, rather than the former June-to-March schedule.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said that he has no objections to readjusting the school calendar, and blamed climate change for the extreme heat. The government “really didn’t expect it to be like this,” Mr. Marcos said earlier this month.

Extreme temperatures are also disrupting everyday life in other parts of Asia, including Cambodia and Vietnam . Earlier this month, a heat wave forced schools in Bangladesh and India to close.

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Philippine students are told to stay home as Southeast Asia swelters in prolonged heat wave

Scorching temperatures in Manila have prompted the closure of all public schools for in-person lessons, meaning millions of students are staying home. The Philippines is among the worst affected by the sweltering weather in Southeast Asia where the intense tropical summer heat worsened by humidity had forced on and off in-person class cancellations in recent weeks and sparked fears of water shortages, power outages and damage to agricultural crops. (AP video by Aaron Favila)

A vendor prepares his umbrella as hot days continue in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

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A teacher arranges papers at an empty classroom at the Justo Lukban Elementary School in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

A cat rests along an empty hallway as classes shift to online modes due to the hot weather at the Justo Lukban Elementary School in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

Parking attendant Andy Tinto uses laundry clips to put a blue towel over his cap to protect him from the sun as he assists cars in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

Cambodian garment workers stand on a back truck as they wearing scarfs and caps to protect from the hot sun during return home after a day’s working at garment factory outside Phnom Penh Cambodia, Monday, April 29, 2024. Southeast Asia was coping with a weeks long heat wave on Monday as record-high temperatures led to school closings in several countries and urgent health warnings throughout the region. (AP Photo/Heng Sinith)

Pedestrians walk cross a road near Sule pagoda im Yangon, Myanmar, Monday, April 29, 2024. (AP Photo)

A street vendor uses an umbrella to protect her from the sun along a street in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

A man and woman use a cloth over their heads to protect them from the sun in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

A teacher arranges papers at an empty classroom as classes shifted to online mode at the Justo Lukban Elementary School in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

FILE - A woman walks through spay water for cooling down from hot temperatures in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 9, 2024. Southeast Asia is coping with a weekslong heat wave as record-high temperatures have led to school closings in several countries and urgent health warnings throughout the region. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit, File)

A worker reaches out for his water jug as he takes a break during a hot day in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

Street sweeper Rose Yatar uses sunblock on her face to protect her from the sun in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

People walk under a shade during a hot day in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

A vendor fixes his old umbrella as he prepares for another hot day in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

Cambodian garment workers stand on a back truck as they wear scarfs and caps to protect themselves from hot sun during return home after a day’s working at garment factory outside Phnom Penh Cambodia, Monday, April 29, 2024. Southeast Asia was coping with a weeks long heat wave on Monday as record-high temperatures led to school closings in several countries and urgent health warnings throughout the region. (AP Photo/Heng Sinith)

Ferry boat drivers wait for passengers to cross Yangon river, at a jetty in Yangon, Myanmar, Monday, April 29, 2024. (AP Photo)

People take rest a park near city hall and high court in Yangon, Myanmar, Monday, April 29, 2024. (AP Photo)

Supporters of the National Democratic Alliance sit on the staircase to shield themselves from the heat as their candidates arrive to file nomination papers ahead of national elections in Mumbai, India, Monday, April 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

A teacher walks along an empty hallway as classes shift to online mode due to the hot weather at the Justo Lukban Elementary School in Manila, Philippines on Monday, April 29, 2024. Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities cancelled in-person classes for two days as an emergency step due to the scorching heat and a public transport strike. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)

FILE - Women eat ice cream in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 9, 2024. Southeast Asia is coping with a weekslong heat wave as record-high temperatures have led to school closings in several countries and urgent health warnings throughout the region. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit, File)

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Southeast Asia was coping with a weekslong heat wave on Monday as record-high temperatures led to school closings in several countries and urgent health warnings throughout the region.

Millions of students in all public schools across the Philippines were ordered to stay home Monday after authorities canceled in-person classes for two days. The main advice for everyone, everywhere has been to avoid outdoor activities and drink plenty of water, but the young and the elderly were told to be especially careful.

Cambodia this year is facing the highest temperatures in 170 years, Chan Yutha, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, told The Associated Press on Monday. His agency has forecast that temperatures in most parts of the country could reach up to 43 degrees Celsius (109 degrees Fahrenheit) this week.

Myanmar’s meteorological department said Monday that seven townships in the central Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing and Bago regions experienced record-high temperatures. Several towns in Myanmar last week were on lists of the hottest spots worldwide.

FILE - In this photo released by Agence Kampuchea Press (AKP), Cambodian soldiers' relatives gather for the funeral procession to all who died during an ammunition explosion in an army base in Kampong Speu province, Cambodia, on April 28, 2024. A huge explosion in southwestern Cambodia over the weekend that killed 20 soldiers at an army base appears to have been an accident caused by mishandling of ammunition by troops, a senior military official said Tuesday, April 30. (AKP via AP, File)

Chauk township in Magway, historically the country’s hottest region, saw Myanmar’s highest temperature at 48.2 degrees Celsius (118.8 degrees Fahrenheit), breaking the previous record of 47.4 degrees Celsius (117.3 degrees Fahrenheit) set in 1968.

The Philippines is among the nations worst affected by the sweltering weather in Southeast Asia, where the intense tropical summer heat worsened by humidity forced class cancellations in recent weeks and sparked fears of water shortages, power outages and damage to agricultural crops.

The Department of Education ordered students in more than 47,000 public schools to switch to home-based and online learning due to health risks from record-high temperatures and a three-day strike starting Monday by drivers who oppose a government program they fear would remove dilapidated passenger jeepneys from streets.

Large crowds have sought relief in air-conditioned shopping malls in Metropolitan Manila, the congested capital region of more than 14 million people where the temperature soared to 38.8 degrees Celsius (101.84 Fahrenheit) Saturday, surpassing the record set decades ago, according to weather officials.

In Thailand , temperatures have topped 44 C (111 F) in some areas in the northern parts of the country, while the capital Bangkok and metropolitan areas have seen temperatures go above 40 C (104 F). The forecast from the Meteorological Department said this year’s summer, which usually lasts from late February to late May, is expected to be 1-2 degrees hotter than last year, and rainfall will be lower than average.

Thailand’s Department of Disease Control said last week that at least 30 people have died from heatstroke so far this year, compared to 37 for all of last year.

Scientists have said the number of heat-related deaths around the world has been rising significantly in recent years along with temperatures, but the trend in Asia this year so far is unclear, partly because of the question of how to classify deaths that appear to be heat related.

At least 34 people have fallen ill due to the extreme heat in the Philippines so far this year, including six who died. The Department of Health said it was verifying what exactly caused the deaths.

Media in Bangladesh reported that in a five-day period earlier this month, at least 20 people died from heatstroke.

In Cambodia, however, officials indicated there were few if any heat-related fatalities. The Khmer Times, an online news platform, quoted the head of the Health Department of Phnom Penh, the capital, saying there had been no heat-related deaths or collapses.

Associated Press writers Sopheng Cheang in Phnom Penh, Cambodia and Jintamas Saksornchai in Bangkok contributed to this report.

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The Philippine Climate Change Assessment
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