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Climate change has caused billions of dollars in flood damages, according to Stanford researchers

Flooding has caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damage in the U.S. over the past three decades. Researchers found that 36 percent of the costs of flooding in the U.S. from 1988 to 2017 were a result of intensifying precipitation, consistent with predictions of global warming.

In a new study, Stanford researchers report that intensifying precipitation contributed one-third of the financial costs of flooding in the United States over the past three decades, totaling almost $75 billion of the estimated $199 billion in flood damages from 1988 to 2017.

Water rescue crew searches by boat for survivors after a dangerous flooding event. In a new analysis, researchers attribute about one-third of the cost of flooding damages in the past 30 years to climate change. (Image credit: Roschetzky / iStockPhoto)

The research , published Jan. 11 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , helps to resolve a long-standing debate about the role of climate change in the rising costs of flooding and provides new insight into the financial costs of global warming overall.

“The fact that extreme precipitation has been increasing and will likely increase in the future is well known, but what effect that has had on financial damages has been uncertain,” said lead author Frances Davenport, a PhD student in Earth system science at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). “Our analysis allows us to isolate how much of those changes in precipitation translate to changes in the cost of flooding, both now and in the future.”

The global insurance company Munich Re calls flooding “the number-one natural peril in the U.S.” However, although flooding is one of the most common, widespread and costly natural hazards, whether climate change has contributed to the rising financial costs of flooding – and if so, how much – has been a topic of debate, including in the most recent climate change assessments from the U.S. government and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

At the crux of that debate is the question of whether or not the increasing trend in the cost of flooding in the U.S. has been driven primarily by socioeconomic factors like population growth, housing development and increasing property values. Most previous research has focused either on very detailed case studies (for example, of individual disasters or long-term changes in individual states) or on correlations between precipitation and flood damages for the U.S. overall.

In an effort to close this gap, the researchers started with higher resolution climate and socioeconomic data. They then applied advanced methods from economics to quantify the relationship between historical precipitation variations and historical flooding costs, along with methods from statistics and climate science to evaluate the impact of changes in precipitation on total flooding costs. Together, these analyses revealed that climate change has contributed substantially to the growing cost of flooding in the U.S., and that exceeding the levels of global warming agreed upon in the United Nations Paris Agreement is very likely to lead to greater intensification of the kinds of extreme precipitation events that have been most costly and devastating in recent decades.

“Previous studies have analyzed pieces of this puzzle, but this is the first study to combine rigorous economic analysis of the historical relationships between climate and flooding costs with really careful extreme event analyses in both historical observations and global climate models, across the whole United States,” said senior author and climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh , the Kara J Foundation Professor at Stanford Earth.

“By bringing all those pieces together, this framework provides a novel quantification not only of how much historical changes in precipitation have contributed to the costs of flooding, but also how greenhouse gases influence the kinds of precipitation events that cause the most damaging flooding events,” Diffenbaugh added.

The researchers liken isolating the role of changing precipitation to other questions of cause and effect, such as determining how much an increase in minimum wage will affect local employment, or how many wins an individual player contributes to the overall success of a basketball team. In this case, the research team started by developing an economic model based on observed precipitation and monthly reports of flood damage, controlling for other factors that might affect flooding costs like increases in home values. They then calculated the change in extreme precipitation in each state over the study period. Finally, they used the model to calculate what the economic damages would have been if those changes in extreme precipitation had not occurred.

“This counterfactual analysis is similar to computing how many games the Los Angeles Lakers would have won, with and without the addition of LeBron James, holding all other players constant,” said study co-author and economist Marshall Burke , an associate professor of Earth system science.

Applying this framework, the research team found that – when totaled across all the individual states – changes in precipitation accounted for 36 percent of the actual flooding costs that occurred in the U.S. from 1988 to 2017. The effect of changing precipitation was primarily driven by increases in extreme precipitation, which have been responsible for the largest share of flooding costs historically.

“What we find is that, even in states where the long-term mean precipitation hasn’t changed, in most cases the wettest events have intensified, increasing the financial damages relative to what would have occurred without the changes in precipitation,” said Davenport, who received a Stanford Interdisciplinary Graduate Fellowship in 2020.

The researchers emphasize that, by providing a new quantification of the scale of the financial costs of climate change, their findings have implications beyond flooding in the U.S.

“Accurately and comprehensively tallying the past and future costs of climate change is key to making good policy decisions,” said Burke. “This work shows that past climate change has already cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars, just due to flood damages alone.”

The authors envision their approach being applied to different natural hazards, to climate impacts in different sectors of the economy and to other regions of the globe to help understand the costs and benefits of climate adaptation and mitigation actions.

“That these results are as robust and definitive as they are really advances our understanding of the role of historical precipitation changes in the financial costs of flooding,” Diffenbaugh said. “But, more broadly, the framework that we developed provides an objective basis for estimating what it will cost to adapt to continued climate change and the economic value of avoiding higher levels of global warming in the future.”

Diffenbaugh is also the Kimmelman Family Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and an affiliate of the Precourt Institute for Energy . Burke is also deputy director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment and a fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute, the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research .

To read all stories about Stanford science, subscribe to the biweekly Stanford Science Digest .

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• Published: 03 August 2022

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

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• Camila Alvarez-Garreton   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5381-4863 8 , 9 ,
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• Laila Balkhi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8224-3556 11 ,
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• Jim Freer 20 , 21 , 26 ,
• Natalia Frolova   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3576-285X 5 ,
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• Manolis Grillakis   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4228-1803 29 ,
• Jordi Oriol Grima 10 ,
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• Laurie S. Huning   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0296-4255 6 , 31 ,
• Monica Ionita   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8240-4380 32 , 33 , 34 ,
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• Hannah Mathew-Richards 37 ,
• Andrew McKenzie   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8723-4325 42 ,
• Alfonso Mejia   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3891-1822 45 ,
• Eduardo Mario Mendiondo   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-2773 46 ,
• Marjolein Mens 47 ,
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• Guilherme Samprogna Mohor   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2348-6181 50 ,
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• Pham Thi Thao Nhi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4118-8479 36 ,
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• Hong Quan Nguyen 52 , 53 ,
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• Saman Razavi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1870-5810 11 , 55 , 56 ,
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• Jannik Riegel 58 ,
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• Alexey Sazonov 5 , 35 ,
• Sanjib Sharma   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2735-1241 60 ,
• Johanna Sörensen   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2312-4917 49 ,
• Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2753-9896 46 ,
• Kerstin Stahl   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2159-9441 19 ,
• Max Steinhausen   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8692-8824 1 ,
• Michael Stoelzle   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0021-4351 19 ,
• Wiwiana Szalińska   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-6828-6963 61 ,
• Qiuhong Tang 62 ,
• Fuqiang Tian   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9414-7019 63 ,
• Tamara Tokarczyk   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5862-6338 61 ,
• Carolina Tovar   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8256-9174 64 ,
• Thi Van Thu Tran   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1187-3520 52 ,
• Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9781-6852 65 ,
• Michelle T. H. van Vliet   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2597-8422 66 ,
• Sergiy Vorogushyn   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4639-7982 1 ,
• Thorsten Wagener   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3881-5849 21 , 50 , 67 ,
• Yueling Wang 62 ,
• Doris E. Wendt   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2315-7871 67 ,
• Elliot Wickham 68 ,
• Long Yang   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1872-0175 69 ,
• Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9536-643X 8 , 9 ,
• Günter Blöschl   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2227-8225 70 &
• Giuliano Di Baldassarre   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8180-4996 43 , 44 , 71  

Nature volume  608 ,  pages 80–86 ( 2022 ) Cite this article

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• Natural hazards

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1 , 2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4 , 5 . On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3 .

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Observed decreasing trends in the vulnerability to floods and droughts, owing to effective risk management, are encouraging 1 . Globally, human and economic vulnerability dropped by approximately 6.5- and 5-fold, respectively, between the periods 1980–1989 and 2007–2016 (ref.  2 ). However, the impacts of floods and droughts are still severe and increasing in many parts of the world 6 . Climate change will probably lead to a further increase in their impacts owing to projected increases in the frequency and severity of floods and droughts 3 . The economic damage of floods is projected to double globally 7 and that of droughts to triple in Europe 8 , for a mean temperature increase of 2 °C.

The purpose of risk management is to reduce the impact of events through modification of the hazard, exposure and/or vulnerability: according to United Nations (UN) terminology 9 , disaster risk management is the application of disaster risk reduction policies and strategies to prevent new disaster risk, reduce existing disaster risk and manage residual risk, contributing to the strengthening of resilience against, and reduction of, disaster losses. Hazard is a process, phenomenon or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation; exposure is the situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production capacities and other tangible human assets located in hazard-prone areas; and vulnerability is the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 that increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards. To be effective, risk management needs to be based on a sound understanding of these controlling risk drivers 14 , 15 . Past studies have identified increasing exposure as a primary driver of increasing impacts 3 , 4 , and vulnerability reduction has been identified as key for reduction of impacts 16 , 17 . However, ascertaining the combined effect of the drivers and the overall effectiveness of risk management has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4 , 5 .

Here we analyse a new dataset of 45 pairs of flood or drought events that occurred in the same area on average 16 years apart (hereinafter referred to as paired events). The data comprise 26 flood and 19 drought paired events across different socioeconomic and hydroclimatic contexts from all continents (Fig. 1a ). We analyse floods and droughts together, because of the similarity of some of the management methods (for example, warning systems, water reservoir infrastructure), the potential for trade-offs in risk reduction between floods and droughts and therefore value for the management communities to learn from each other 18 . The impact, quantified by direct (fatalities, monetary damage), indirect (for example, disruption of traffic or tourism) and intangible impacts (for example, impact on human health or cultural heritage), is considered to be controlled by three drivers: hazard, exposure and vulnerability 3 . These drivers are quantified using a large range of different indices—for example, the standardized precipitation index, the number of houses in the affected area and risk awareness, respectively (Supplementary Table 1 ). These three drivers are considered to be exacerbated by management shortcomings. Hazard may be exacerbated by problems with water management infrastructure such as levees or reservoirs 19 . Exposure and vulnerability may be worsened by suboptimal implementation of non-structural measures such as risk-aware regional planning 20 or early warning 21 , respectively. We analyse management shortcomings and their effect on the three drivers explicitly, as this is the point at which improvements can start—for example, by the introduction of better strategies and policies. Data availability understandably varies among the paired events, and this can introduce inconsistency and subjectivity. The analyses are therefore based on indicators of change, to account for differences between paired events in respect of measured variables, data quality and uncertainty. These indicators of change represent the differences between the first event (baseline) and the second, categorized as large decreases/increases (−2/+2), small decreases/increases (−1/+1) and no change (0) (Supplementary Table 2 ). To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty of indicator assignment, a quality assurance protocol is implemented and indicators of change with sub-indicators are used.

a , Location of flood and drought paired events ( n = 45). Numbers are paired-event IDs. b , Indicators of change, sorted by impact change. Impact is considered to be controlled by hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which are exacerbated by risk management shortcomings. Maps of the paired events coloured according to drivers and management shortcomings are shown in Extended Data Fig. 1 .

Source data

The majority of paired events show decreases in management shortcomings (71% of paired events; Fig. 1b ), which reflects that societies tend to learn from extreme events 22 . Most cases also show a decrease in vulnerability (80% of paired events) as societies typically reduce their vulnerability after the first event of a pair 21 . The five paired events with a large decrease in impact (dark blue, top left in Fig. 1b ) are associated with decreases or no change of all three drivers.

Drivers of changes in impact

Changes in flood impacts are significantly and positively correlated with changes in hazard ( r  = 0.64, P  ≤ 0.01), exposure ( r  = 0.55, P  ≤ 0.01) and vulnerability ( r  = 0.60, P  ≤ 0.01) (Fig. 2a ), which is in line with risk theory 3 . Although a previous analysis of eight case studies 21 identified vulnerability as a key to reduction of flood impacts, this new, more comprehensive, dataset suggests that changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability are equally important, given that they correlate equally strongly with changes in flood impact. Changes in drought impacts are significantly correlated with changes in hazard and exposure, but not with changes in vulnerability (Fig. 2c ). This suggests that changes in vulnerability have been less successful in reducing drought impact than flood impact, which is also consistent with those event pairs for which only vulnerability changed (Extended Data Table 1 ). However, quantification of the contribution of individual drivers is difficult with this empirical approach because there are only a limited number of cases in which only one driver changed. There are three cases in which only vulnerability changed between events, two cases in which only hazard changed and no case in which only exposure changed (Extended Data Table 1 ). Additionally, paired events without a change in hazard (0) are analysed in more detail to better understand the role of exposure and vulnerability (Extended Data Fig. 2 ). In all these paired events, a reduction in impact was associated with a reduction in vulnerability, highlighting the importance of vulnerability. In five of these eight cases with a decrease in impact there was also a decrease in exposure, whereas in one case (floods in Jakarta, Indonesia in 2002 and 2007 (ID 18)) there was a large increase in exposure. In the paired event of droughts in California, United States (1987–1992 and 2011–2016, ID 36) an increase in exposure and a reduction in vulnerability increased impact, which points to the more important role of exposure in comparison with vulnerability in this drought case (Extended Data Fig. 2 ).

a , c , Correlation matrix of indicators of change for flood ( a ) and drought ( c ) paired events. Colours of squares indicate Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and their size, the P  value. b , d ,Histograms of indicators of change of flood ( b ) and drought ( d ) stratified by decrease ( n  = 15 and n  = 5 paired events for flood and drought, respectively) and increase ( n  = 5 and n  = 8 paired events, respectively) in impact. The asterisk denotes the success stories of Box 1 ; double asterisks denote pairs for which the second event was much more hazardous than the first (that is, 'unprecedented'). Mgmt shortc, management shortcomings.

Generally the changes in drivers are not significantly correlated with each other, with the exception of hazard and exposure in the case of floods ( r  = 0.55, P  ≤ 0.01) (Fig. 2a ). This finding may be explained by the influence of hazard on the size of the inundation area, and thus on the numbers of people and assets affected, which represent exposure.

The sensitivity analysis suggests that the correlation pattern is robust, as visualized by the colours in Extended Data Fig. 3 . The pattern of P  values is also robust for flood cases, although these become less significant for drought because of the smaller sample size (Extended Data Fig. 3 ).

We split the paired events into groups of decreasing and increasing impact to evaluate their drivers separately (Fig. 2b,d ). Overall, the pattern is similar for floods and droughts. Most flood and drought pairs with decreasing impact show either a decrease in hazard (ten pairs, 50%) or no change (eight pairs, 40%). Exceptions are two flood pairs that are success stories of decreased impact despite an increase in hazard, as detailed in Box 1 . The change in exposure of the pairs with decreased impacts (Fig. 2b,d ) ranges from a large decrease to a large increase, whereas vulnerability always decreased. All cases with a large decrease in vulnerability (−2) are associated with a decrease in impacts. Overall, the pattern suggests that a decrease in impacts is mainly caused by a combination of lower hazard and vulnerability, despite an increase in exposure in 25% of cases.

The role of hazard and vulnerability in impact reduction can be exemplified by the pair of riverine floods in Jakarta, Indonesia (ID 4 in Fig. 1 ). The 2007 event had a flood return period of 50 years, whereas it was 30 years for the 2013 event 23 (that is, the hazard of the second event was smaller). Vulnerability had also decreased as a result of improved preparedness resulting from a flood risk mapping initiative and capacity building programmes implemented after the first flood, to improve citizens' emergency response, as well as by an improvement in official emergency management by establishment of the National Disaster Management Agency in 2008. Additionally, exposure was substantially reduced. Whilst the first flood caused 79 fatalities and direct damage of €1.3 billion, the second event caused 38 fatalities and €0.76 billion of direct damage.

Another example is a pair of Central European droughts (ID 9). During the 2003 event, the minimum 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index was −1.62 whereas in 2015 it was −1.18—that is, the hazard of the second event was smaller 24 . The vulnerability was also lower in the second event, because the first event had raised public awareness and triggered an improvement in institutional planning. For instance, the European Commission technical guidance on drought management plans 25 was implemented. Many reservoirs were kept filled until the beginning of summer 2015, which alleviated water shortages for various sectors and, in some cities (for example, Bratislava and Bucharest), water was supplied from tanks 26 . Additionally, water use and abstraction restrictions were implemented for non-priority uses including irrigation 26 . The impact was reduced from €17.1 billion to €2.2 billion, despite an increase in exposure because of the larger drought extent affecting almost all of Europe in 2013.

Most flood and drought pairs with an increase in impact also show a larger hazard (11 cases, 85%; Fig. 2b,d ). For six of these paired events (46%), the second event was much more hazardous than the first (hazard indicator-of-change +2), whereas this was never the case for the pairs with decreasing impact. Of those pairs with an increase in impact, 12 (92%) show an increase in exposure and nine (69%) show a small decrease in vulnerability (vulnerability indicator-of-change −1). Overall, the pattern suggests that the increase in impact is mainly caused by a combination of higher hazard and exposure, which is not compensated by a small decrease in vulnerability.

The role of hazard and exposure in increasing impact is illustrated by a pair of pluvial floods in Corigliano-Rossano City, Calabria, Italy (ID 40). This 2015 event was much more hazardous (+2) than that in 2000, with precipitation return periods of more than 100 and 10–20 years, respectively 27 . Also, the 2000 event occurred during the off-season for tourism in September whereas the exposure was much larger in 2015, because the event occurred in August when many tourists were present. Interruption of the peak holiday season caused severe indirect economic damage. Another example is a pair of droughts (ID 33) affecting North Carolina, United States. Between 2007 and 2009, about 65% of the state was affected by what was classified as an exceptional drought, with a composite drought indicator of the US Drought Monitor of 27 months 28 , whereas between 2000 and 2003 only about 30% of the state was affected by an exceptional drought of 24 months 28 . The crop losses in 2007–2009 were about €535 million, whereas they were €497 million in 2000–2003, even though vulnerability had been reduced due to drought early warning and management by the North Carolina Drought Management Council, established in 2003.

Box 1
 Success stories of decreased impact despite increased hazard

The dataset includes two cases in which a lower impact was achieved despite a larger hazard of the second event, making these interesting success stories (Fig. 3 ). Both cases are flood paired events, but of different types (that is, pluvial and riverine floods (Table 1 )). These cases have in common that institutional changes and improved flood risk management governance were introduced and high investments in integrated management were undertaken, which led to an effective implementation of structural and non-structural measures, such as improved early warning and emergency response to complement structural measures such as levees (Table 1 ).

Effects of changes in management on drivers

The correlations shown in Fig. 2a,c also shed light on how management affects hazard, exposure and vulnerability and thus, indirectly, impact. For flood paired events, changes in management shortcomings are significantly positively correlated with changes in vulnerability ( r  = 0.56, P  ≤ 0.01), and both are significantly positively correlated with changes in impact (Fig. 2a ). For drought, however, these correlations are not significant (Fig. 2c ). Thus, achieving decreases in vulnerability, and consequently in impact, by improving risk management (that is, reducing management shortcomings) seems to be more difficult for droughts than for floods. This difficulty may be related to spillover effects—that is, drought measures designed to reduce impacts in one sector can increase impacts in another. For example, irrigation to alleviate drought in agriculture may increase drought impacts on drinking water supply and ecology 29 .

The paired floods in the Piura region, Peru (ID 13) illustrate how effective management can reduce vulnerability, and consequently impact. At the Piura river, maximum flows of 3,367 and 2,755 m 3  s −1 were recorded during the 1998 and 2017 events, respectively (that is, hazard showed a small decrease (−1)). Around 2000, the national hydrometeorological service started to issue medium-range weather forecasts that allowed preparations months before the 2017 event. In 2011, the National Institute of Civil Defence and the National Centre for the Estimation, Prevention, and Reduction of Disaster Risk were founded which, together with newly established short-range river flow forecasts, allowed more efficient emergency management of the more recent event. Additionally, non-governmental organizations such as Practical Action had implemented disaster risk-reduction activities, including evacuation exercises and awareness campaigns 30 . All of these improvements in management decreased vulnerability. The impact of the second event was smaller, with 366 fatalities in 1998 compared with 159 in 2017, despite an increase in exposure due to urbanization and population increase.

When the hazard of the second event was larger than that of the first (+1, +2), in 11 out of 18 cases (61%) the impact of the second event was also larger, irrespective of small decreases in vulnerability in eight of these cases (light blue dots/triangles in Fig. 3 ). There are only two paired events in our dataset for which a decrease in impact was achieved despite the second event being more hazardous (highlighted by the green circle in Fig. 3 ). These cases are considered success stories and are further discussed in Box 1 . For the two paired events (ID 21 and 30) for which the only driver that changed was hazard (+1), the impacts did not change (0) (Extended Data Table 1 ). Water retention capacity of 189,881,000 m³ and good irrigation infrastructure with sprinkling machines were apparently sufficient to counteract the slight increase in hazard for the drought paired event in Poland in 2006 and 2015 (ID 21). The improved flood alleviation scheme implemented between the paired flood events (2016 and 2018), protected properties in Birmingham, United Kingdom (ID 30). There are, however, seven cases for which the second event was much more hazardous (+2) than the first (highlighted by the purple ellipse in Fig. 3 )—that is, events of a magnitude that locals had probably not previously experienced. We term these events, subjectively, as unprecedented; almost all had an increased impact despite improvements in management.

Categories are: lower hazard and lower impact, ten cases; higher hazard and higher impact, 11 cases; lower hazard and higher impact, one case; higher hazard and lower impact, two cases. Circles and triangles indicate drought and flood paired events, respectively; their colours indicate change in vulnerability. Green circle highlights success stories ( n  = 2) of reduced impact (−1) despite a small increase in hazard (+1). Purple ellipse indicates paired events ( n  = 7) with large increase in hazard (+2)—that is, events that were subjectively unprecedented and probably not previously experienced by local residents.

One unprecedented pluvial flood is the 2014 event in the city of Malmö, Sweden (ID 45). This event was much more hazardous than that experienced a few years before, with precipitation return periods on average of 135 and 24 years, respectively, for 6 h duration 31 . The largest 6 h precipitation measured at one of nine stations during the 2014 event corresponded to a return period of 300 years. The combined sewage system present in the more densely populated areas of the city was overwhelmed, leading to extensive basement flooding in 2014 (ref.  31 ). The direct monetary damage was about €66 million as opposed to €6 million in the first event. An unprecedented drought occurred in the Cape Town metropolitan area of South Africa, in 2015–2018 (ID 44). The drought was much longer (4 years) than that experienced previously in 2003–2004 (2 years). Although the Berg River Dam had been added to the city’s water supply system in 2009, and local authorities had developed various strategies for managing water demands (for example, water restrictions, tariff increases, communication campaign), the second event caused a much higher direct impact of about €180 million 32 because the water reserves were reduced to virtually zero.

Even though it is known that vulnerability reduction plays a key role in reducing risk, our paired-event cases reveal that when the hazard of the second event was higher than the first, a reduction in vulnerability alone was often not sufficient to reduce the impact of the second event to less than that of the first. Our analysis of drivers of impact change reveals the importance of reducing hazard, exposure and vulnerability to achieve an effective impact reduction (Fig. 2 ). Although previous studies have attributed a high priority to vulnerability reduction 17 , 21 , the importance of considering all three drivers identified here may reflect the sometimes limited efficiency of management decisions, resulting in unintended consequences. For example, levee construction aiming at reducing hazards may increase exposure through encouraging settlements in floodplains 33 , 34 . Similarly, construction of reservoirs to abate droughts may enhance exposure through encouraging agricultural development and thus increase water demand 35 , 36 .

Events that are much more hazardous than preceding events (termed unprecedented here) seem to be difficult to manage; in almost all the cases considered they led to increased impact (Fig. 3 ). This finding may be related to two factors. First, large infrastructure such as levees and water reservoirs play an important role in risk management. These structures usually have an upper design limit up to which they are effective but, once a threshold is exceeded, they become ineffective. For example, the unprecedented pluvial flood in 2014 in Malmö, Sweden (ID 45) exceeded the capacity of the sewer system 31 and the unprecedented drought in Cape Town (ID 44) exceeded the storage water capacity 37 . This means that infrastructure is effective in preventing damage during events of a previously experienced magnitude, but often fails for unprecedented events. Non-structural measures, such as risk-aware land-use planning, precautionary measures and early warning, can help mitigate the consequences of water infrastructure failure in such situations 21 , but a residual risk will always remain. Second, risk management is usually implemented after large floods and droughts, whereas proactive strategies are rare. Part of the reason for this behaviour is a cognitive bias associated with the rarity and uniqueness of extremes, and the nature of human risk perception, which makes people attach a large subjective probability to those events they have personally experienced 38 .

On the other hand, two case studies were identified in which impact was reduced despite an increase in hazard (Box 1 ). An analysis of these case studies identifies three success factors: (1) effective governance of risk and emergency management, including transnational collaboration such as in the Danube case; (2) high investments in structural and non-structural measures; and (3) improved early warning and real-time control systems such as in the Barcelona case. We believe there is potential for more universal application of these success factors to counteract the current trend of increasing impacts associated with climate change 3 . These factors may also be effective in the management of unprecedented events, provided they are implemented proactively.

The concept of paired events aims at comparing two events of the same hazard type that occurred in the same area 21 to learn from the differences and similarities. This concept is analogous to paired catchment studies, which compare two neighbouring catchments with different vegetation in terms of their water yield 39 . Our study follows the theoretical risk framework that considers impact as a result of three risk components or drivers 3 : hazard, exposure and vulnerability (Extended Data Fig. 4 ). Hazard reflects the intensity of an event, such as a flooded area or drought deficit—for example, measured by the standardized precipitation index. Exposure reflects the number of people and assets in the area affected by the event. Consequently, the change in exposure between events is influenced by changes in the population density and the assets in the affected area (socioeconomic developments), as well as by changes in the size of the affected area (change of hazard). Vulnerability is a complex concept, with an extensive literature from different disciplines on how to define, measure and quantify it 13 , 40 , 41 , 42 . For instance, Weichselgartner 43 lists more than 20 definitions of vulnerability, and frameworks differ quite substantially—for example, in terms of integration of exposure into vulnerability 11 or separating them 3 . Reviews and attempts to converge on the various vulnerability concepts stress that vulnerability is dynamic and that assessments should be conducted for defined human–environment systems at particular places 12 , 44 , 45 . Every vulnerability analysis requires an approach adapted to its specific objectives and scales 46 . The paired event approach allows detailed context and place-based vulnerability assessments that are presented in the paired event reports, as well as comparisons across paired events based on the indicators-of-change. The selection of sub-indicators for the characterization of vulnerability is undertaken with a particular focus on temporal changes at the same place. All three drivers—hazard, exposure and vulnerability—can be reduced by risk-management measures. Hazard can be reduced by structural measures such as levees or reservoirs 19 , exposure by risk-aware regional planning 20 and vulnerability by non-structural measures, such as early warning 21 .

Our comparative analysis is based on a novel dataset of 45 paired events from around the world, of which 26 event pairs are floods and 19 are droughts. The events occurred between 1947 and 2019, and the average period between the two events of a pair is 16 years. The number of paired events is sufficiently large to cover a broad range of hydroclimatic and socioeconomic settings around the world and allows differentiated, context-specific assessments on the basis of detailed in situ observations. Flood events include riverine, pluvial, groundwater and coastal floods 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 . Drought events include meteorological, soil moisture and hydrological (streamflow, groundwater) droughts 51 . The rationale for analysing floods and droughts together is based on their position at the two extremes of the same hydrological cycle, the similarity of some management strategies (for example, warning systems, water reservoir infrastructure), potential trade-offs in the operation of the same infrastructure 52 and more general interactions between these two risks (for example, water supply to illegal settlements that may spur development and therefore flood risk). There may therefore be value in management communities learning from each other 18 .

The dataset comprises: (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the events, such as changes in risk management (open access data; Data Availability statement); (2) a key data table that contains the data (qualitative and quantitative) characterizing the indicators for the paired events, extracted from individual reports (open access data); and (3) an overview table providing indicators-of-change between the first and second events (Supplementary Table 3 ). To minimize the elements of subjectivity and uncertainty in the analysis, we (1) used indicators-of-change as opposed to indicators of absolute values, (2) calculated indicators from a set of sub-indicators (Supplementary Table 1 ) and (3) implemented a quality assurance protocol. Commonly, more than one variable was assessed per sub-indicator (for example, flood discharges at more than one stream gauge, or extreme rainfall at several meteorological stations). A combination or selection of the variables was used based on hydrological reasoning on the most relevant piece of information. Special attention was paid to this step during the quality assurance process, drawing on the in-depth expertise on events of one or more of our co-authors. The assignment of values for the indicators-of-change, including quality assurance, was inspired by the Delphi Method 53 that is built on structured discussion and consensus building among experts. The process was driven by a core group (H.K., A.F.V.L., K. Schröter, P.J.W. and G.D.B.) and was undertaken in the following steps: (1) on the basis of the detailed report, a core group member suggested values for all indicators-of-change for a paired event; (2) a second member of the core group reviewed these suggestions; in case of doubt, both core group members rechecked the paired event report and provided a joint suggestion; (3) all suggestions for the indicators-of-change for all paired events were discussed in the core group to improve consistency across paired events; (4) the suggested values of the indicators-of-change were reviewed by the authors of the paired-event report; and finally (5), the complete table of indicators-of-change (Supplementary Table 3 ) was reviewed by all authors to ensure consistency between paired events. Compound events were given special consideration, and the best possible attempt was made to isolate the direct effects of floods and droughts from those of concurrent phenomena on hazard, exposure and impact, based on expert knowledge of the events of one or more of the co-authors. For instance, in the course of this iterative process it became clear that fatalities during drought events were not caused by a lack of water, but by the concurrent heatwave. It was thus decided to omit the sub-indicator ‘fatalities’ in drought impact characterization. The potential biases introduced by compound events were further reduced by the use of the relative indicators-of-change between similar event types with similar importance of concurrent phenomena.

The indicator-of-change of impact is composed of the following sub-indicators: number of fatalities (for floods only), direct economic impact, indirect impact and intangible impact (Supplementary Table 1 ). Flood hazard is composed of the sub-indicators precipitation/weather severity, severity of flood, antecedent conditions (for pluvial and riverine floods only), as well as the following for coastal floods only: tidal level and storm surge. Drought hazard is composed of the duration and severity of drought. Exposure is composed of the two sub-indicators people/area/assets exposed and exposure hotspots. Vulnerability is composed of the four sub-indicators lack of awareness and precaution, lack of preparedness, imperfect official emergency/crisis management and imperfect coping capacity. Indicators-of-change, including sub-indicators, were designed such that consistently positive correlations with impact changes are expected (Supplementary Table 1 ). For instance, a decrease in 'lack of awareness' leads to a decrease in vulnerability and is thus expected to be positively correlated with a decrease in impacts. Management shortcomings are characterized by problems with water management infrastructure and non-structural risk management shortcomings, which means that non-structural measures were not optimally implemented. These sub-indicators were aggregated into indicators-of-change for impact, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and management shortcomings, to enable a consistent comparison between flood and drought paired events. This set of indicators is intended to be as complementary as possible, but overlaps are hard to avoid because of interactions between physical and socioeconomic processes that control flood and drought risk. Although the management shortcoming indicator is primarily related to the planned functioning of risk management measures, and hazard, exposure and vulnerability primarily reflect the concrete effects of measures during specific events, there is some overlap between the management shortcoming indicator and all three drivers. Supplementary Table 1 provides definitions and examples of description or measurement of sub-indicators for flood and drought paired events.

The changes are indicated by −2/2 for large decrease or increase, −1/1 for small decrease or increase and 0 for no change. In the case of quantitative comparisons (for example, precipitation intensities and monetary damage), a change of less than around 50% is usually treated as a small change and above approximately 50% as a large change, but always considering the specific measure and paired events. Supplementary Table 2 provides representative examples from flood and drought paired events showing how differences in quantitative variables and qualitative information between the two events of a pair correspond to the values of the sub-indicators, ranging from large decrease (−2) to large increase (+2). We assume that an event is unprecedented in a subjective way—that is, it has probably not been experienced before—if the second event of a pair is much more hazardous than the first (hazard indicator-of-change +2).

Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients are calculated for impact, drivers and management shortcomings, separated for flood and drought paired events. Despite the measures taken to minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty of indicator assignment, there will always be an element of subjectivity. To address this, we carried out a Monte Carlo analysis (1,000 iterations) to test the sensitivity of the results when randomly selecting 80% of flood and drought paired events. For each subsample correlation, coefficients and P  values were calculated to obtain a total of 1,000 correlation and 1,000  P  value matrices. The 25th and 75th quantiles of the correlation coefficients and P  values were calculated separately (Extended Data Fig. 3 ).

Data availability

The dataset containing the individual paired event reports, the key data table and Supplementary Tables 1 – 3 are openly available via GFZ Data Services ( https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2022.002 ).  Source data are provided with this paper.

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Acknowledgements

The presented work was developed by the Panta Rhei Working Groups 'Changes in flood risk' and 'Drought in the Anthropocene' within the framework of the Panta Rhei Research Initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. We thank the Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A., Barcelona City Council, Environment Agency (United Kingdom), Länsförsäkringar Skåne, Steering Centre for Urban Flood Control Programme in HCMC (Vietnam), VA SYD and the West Berkshire Council (United Kingdom) for data. The work was partly undertaken under the framework of the following projects: Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Professorship endowed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); British Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Topic (core science funding); C3-RiskMed (no. PID2020-113638RB-C22), financed by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain; Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (no. ANID/FONDAP/15110009); CNES, through the TOSCA GRANT SWHYM; DECIDER (BMBF, no. 01LZ1703G); Deltares research programme on water resources; Dutch Research Council VIDI grant (no. 016.161.324); FLOOD (no. BMBF 01LP1903E), as part of the ClimXtreme Research Network. Funding was provided by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate; Global Water Futures programme of University of Saskatchewan; GlobalHydroPressure (Water JPI); HUMID project (no. CGL2017-85687-R, AEI/FEDER, UE); HydroSocialExtremes (ERC Consolidator Grant no. 771678); MYRIAD-EU (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003276); PerfectSTORM (no. ERC-2020-StG 948601); Project EFA210/16 PIRAGUA, co-founded by ERDF through the POCTEFA 2014–2020 programme of the European Union; Research project nos. ANID/FSEQ210001 and ANID/NSFC190018, funded by the National Research and Development Agency of Chile; SECurITY (Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 787419); SPATE (FWF project I 4776-N, DFG research group FOR 2416); the UK Natural Environment Research Council-funded project Land Management in Lowland Catchments for Integrated Flood Risk Reduction (LANDWISE, grant no. NE/R004668/1); UK NERC grant no. NE/S013210/1 (RAHU) (W.B.); Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development under grant no. 105.06-2019.20.; and Vietnam National University–HCMC under grant no. C2018-48-01. D.M. and A. McKenzie publish with the permission of the Director, British Geological Survey. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not the organizations for which they work.

Open access funding provided by Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum - GFZ.

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GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany

Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Nivedita Sairam, Max Steinhausen & Sergiy Vorogushyn

Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

Anne F. Van Loon, Philip J. Ward, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Anaïs Couasnon & Marleen C. de Ruiter

Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Division of Hydrology and River basin management, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany

Kai Schröter

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA

Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu & Hong-Yi Li

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

Svetlana Agafonova, Natalia Frolova, Maxim Kharlamov, Maria Kireeva & Alexey Sazonov

University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

Amir AghaKouchak & Laurie S. Huning

Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

Hafzullah Aksoy

Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile

Camila Alvarez-Garreton & Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile

Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A, Barcelona, Spain

Blanca Aznar & Jordi Oriol Grima

Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Laila Balkhi, Hayley Carlson & Saman Razavi

LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France

Sylvain Biancamaria

Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands

Liduin Bos-Burgering

School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

Chris Bradley & Lucinda Capewell

Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jakarta, Indonesia

Yus Budiyono

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK

Wouter Buytaert

Department of Civil Engineering, Beykent University, Istanbul, Turkey

Yonca Cavus

Graduate School, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany

Yonca Cavus, Mathilde Erfurt, Kerstin Stahl & Michael Stoelzle

Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

Gemma Coxon & Jim Freer

Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer & Thorsten Wagener

Department of Agriculture, Hellenic Mediterranean University, Iraklio, Greece

Ioannis Daliakopoulos

Université de Lorraine, LOTERR, Metz, France

Claire Delus & Didier François

CNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Cosenza, Italy

Giuseppe Esposito & Olga Petrucci

INRAE, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR ISPA, Villenave dʼOrnon, France

Frédéric Frappart

University of Saskatchewan, Centre for Hydrology, Canmore, Alberta, Canada

Environmental Policy and Planning Group, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

Animesh K. Gain

Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy

Lab of Geophysical-Remote Sensing & Archaeo-environment, Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Rethymno, Greece

Manolis Grillakis

Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bucaramanga, Colombia

Diego A. Guzmán

California State University, Long Beach, CA, USA

Laurie S. Huning

Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, Germany

Monica Ionita & Viorica Nagavciuc

Emil Racovita Institute of Speleology, Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Monica Ionita

Forest Biometrics Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, Ștefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania

Water Problem Institute Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia

Maxim Kharlamov & Alexey Sazonov

Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Dao Nguyen Khoi & Pham Thi Thao Nhi

Environment Agency, Bristol, UK

Natalie Kieboom & Hannah Mathew-Richards

School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece

Aristeidis Koutroulis

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú, Lima, Peru

Waldo Lavado-Casimiro

Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

María Carmen LLasat

Water Research Institute, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

British Geological Survey, Wallingford, UK

David Macdonald & Andrew McKenzie

Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden

Johanna Mård, Elisa Savelli & Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden

Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA

Alfonso Mejia

Escola de Engenharia de Sao Carlos, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil

Eduardo Mario Mendiondo & Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza

Department of Water Resources & Delta Management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands

Marjolein Mens

Trelleborg municipality, Trelleborg, Sweden

Shifteh Mobini

Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

Shifteh Mobini & Johanna Sörensen

University of Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Potsdam, Germany

Guilherme Samprogna Mohor & Thorsten Wagener

University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam

Thanh Ngo-Duc

Institute for Environment and Resources, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh, Hong Quan Nguyen & Thi Van Thu Tran

Institute for Circular Economy Development, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Hong Quan Nguyen

Observatori de l’Ebre, Ramon Llull University – CSIC, Roquetes, Spain

Pere Quintana-Seguí

School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Saman Razavi

Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy

Elena Ridolfi

University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany

Jannik Riegel

Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Md Shibly Sadik

Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA

Sanjib Sharma

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland

Wiwiana Szalińska & Tamara Tokarczyk

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Qiuhong Tang & Yueling Wang

Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Fuqiang Tian

Royal Botanical Gardens Kew, London, UK

Carolina Tovar

KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, the Netherlands

Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort

Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

Michelle T. H. van Vliet

Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

Thorsten Wagener & Doris E. Wendt

School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA

Elliot Wickham

School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria

Günter Blöschl

Department of Integrated Water Systems and Governance, IHE Delft, Delft, the Netherlands

Giuliano Di Baldassarre

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Contributions

H.K. initiated the study and led the work. H.K., A.F.V.L., K. Schröter, P.J.W. and G.D.B. coordinated data collection, designed the study and undertook analyses. All co-authors contributed data and provided conclusions and a synthesis of their case study (the authors of each paired event report were responsible for their case study). M. Mazzoleni additionally designed the figures, and he and N.S. contributed to the analyses. H.K., G.D.B., P.J.W., A.F.V.L., K. Schröter and G.D.B. wrote the manuscript with valuable contributions from all co-authors.

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Correspondence to Heidi Kreibich .

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended data fig. 1 location of flood and drought paired events coloured according to their indicators-of-change..

a , Change in hazard; b , change in exposure; c , change in vulnerability and d , change in management shortcomings.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Parallel plot of paired events with the same hazard of both events.

The hazard change is zero for all shown paired events. The lines show how the different combinations of indicators-of-change result in varying changes in impacts. Small offsets within the grey bars of the indicator-of-change values enable the visualization of all lines.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Results of the sensitivity analyses.

a–d Correlation matrix of indicators-of-change for 25th and 75th quantiles of correlation coefficients and p-values, respectively ( a , c ) and 75th and 25th quantiles of correlation coefficients and p-values, respectively ( b , d ) separate for flood and drought paired events. Quantiles of correlation coefficients and p-values were calculated separately; colours of squares indicate Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients; sizes of squares indicates p-values. Fig. 2a, c is added to the right to ease comparison.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Theoretical framework used in this study (adapted from IPCC 3 ).

This theoretical risk framework considers impact as a result of three risk components or drivers: hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which in turn are modified by management.

Supplementary information

Supplementary tables.

Supplementary Tables 1–3.

Source Data Fig. 1.

Source data fig. 2., source data fig. 3., source data extended data fig. 1., source data extended data fig. 2., source data extended data fig. 3., rights and permissions.

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Kreibich, H., Van Loon, A.F., Schröter, K. et al. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Nature 608 , 80–86 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

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Urban Flooding in the United States

An ad hoc committee will organize a series of regional workshops or case studies to explore the issue of urban flooding in several metropolitan areas. The committee’s report will identify any commonalities and variances among these metropolitan areas in terms of causes, adverse impacts, unexpected problems in recovery, effective mitigation strategies, and key themes of urban flooding; provide an estimate of the size or importance of flooding in these urban areas; and relate, as appropriate, causes and actions of urban flooding to existing federal resources or policies.

Publications

Framing the Challenge of Urban Flooding in the United States

Flooding is the natural hazard with the greatest economic and social impact in the United States, and these impacts are becoming more severe over time. Catastrophic flooding from recent hurricanes, including Superstorm Sandy in New York (2012) and Hurricane Harvey in Houston (2017), caused billions of dollars in property damage, adversely affected millions of people, and damaged the economic well-being of major metropolitan areas. Flooding takes a heavy toll even in years without a named storm or event. Major freshwater flood events from 2004 to 2014 cost an average of $9 billion in direct damage and 71 lives annually. These figures do not include the cumulative costs of frequent, small floods, which can be similar to those of infrequent extreme floods.

Framing the Challenge of Urban Flooding in the United States contributes to existing knowledge by examining real-world examples in specific metropolitan areas. This report identifies commonalities and variances among the case study metropolitan areas in terms of causes, adverse impacts, unexpected problems in recovery, or effective mitigation strategies, as well as key themes of urban flooding. It also relates, as appropriate, causes and actions of urban flooding to existing federal resources or policies.

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Description

An ad hoc committee will organize a series of regional workshops or case studies to explore the issue of urban flooding in 3 to 8 metropolitan areas in order to gain an initial understanding of its extent and causes in the chosen locations. These case study/information gathering sessions will provide information from federal, state, and local government agencies, and other relevant stakeholders responsible for flood control, flood response, recovery, or mitigation on questions related to urban flooding both outside and inside the floodplain, such as : -- How big is the problem of flooding in each metropolitan area; i.e., how bad can floods be or have floods been and how much do floods cost? -- What causes the worst impacts of flooding, including structural and human impacts (human life and property)? -- How could the worst impacts be avoided or mitigated? -- Who is affected most by floods in the metropolitan area? -- Which regions of the metropolitan areas see the longest lasting or most costly effects of flooding? Based on information gathered from the case study cities, the committee will produce a consensus report that: 1.  Identifies any commonalities and variances among the case study metropolitan areas in terms of causes, adverse impacts, unexpected problems in recovery, or effective mitigation strategies, as well as key themes of urban flooding. 2.  Provides an estimate of the size or importance of flooding in those urban areas; and 3.  Relates, as appropriate, causes and actions of urban flooding to existing federal resources or policies, including but not limited to the National Flood Insurance Program, non-disaster grants, Stafford Act authorities, or others.

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North America

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Multiday Event | July 5-7, 2017

[Closed] Urban Flooding in the United States - Regional Workshop in Houston

Multiday Event | April 24-26, 2017

[Closed] Urban Flooding in the United States-Regional Workshop in Baltimore

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Flooding Case studies

Cockermouth, UK – Rich Country (MEDC) Picture Causes: Rain A massive downpour of rain (31.4cm), over a 24-hour period triggered the floods that hit Cockermouth and Workington in Cumbria in November 2009

What caused all the rain? The long downpour was caused by a lengthy flow of warm, moist air that came down from the Azores in the mid-Atlantic. This kind of airflow is common in the UK during autumn and winter, and is known as a ‘warm conveyor’. The warmer the air is, the more moisture it can hold.

What else helped to cause the Cumbrian Floods? · The ground was already saturated, so the additional rain flowed as surface run-off straight into the rivers · The steep slopes of the Cumbrian Mountains helped the water to run very rapidly into the rivers · The rivers Derwent and Cocker were already swollen with previous rainfall · Cockermouth is at the confluence of the Derwent and Cocker (i.e. they meet there)

The effects of the flood · Over 1300 homes were flooded and contaminated with sewage · A number of people had to be evacuated, including 50 by helicopter, when the flooding cut off Cockermouth town centre · Many businesses were flooded causing long-term difficulties for the local economy · People were told that they were unlikely to be able to move back into flood-damaged homes for at least a year. The cost of putting right the damage was an average of £28,000 per house · Insurance companies estimated that the final cost of the flood could reach £100 million · Four bridges collapsed and 12 were closed because of flood damage. In Workington, all the bridges were destroyed or so badly damaged that they were declared unsafe – cutting the town in two. People faced a huge round trip to get from one side of the town to the other, using safe bridges · One man died– PC Bill Barker

Responses to the flood · The government provided £1 million to help with the clean-up and repairs and agreed to pay for road and bridge repairs in Cumbria · The Cumbria Flood Recovery Fund was set up to help victims of the flood. It reached £1 million after just 10 days · Network Rail opened a temporary railway station in Workington The ‘Visit Cumbria’ website provided lists of recovery services and trades, and people who could provide emergency accommodation

Management of future floods at Cockermouth £4.4 million pound management scheme New flood defence walls will halt the spread of the river Funding from Government and local contributors River dredged more regularly to deepen the channel New embankments raise the channel height to reduce the likelihood of extra floods New floodgates at the back of houses in Waterloo street

Pakistan, Asia – Poor Country Picture At the end of July 2010 usually heavy monsoon rains in northwest Pakistan caused rivers to flood and burst their banks. The map below shows the huge area of Pakistan affected by flooding. The floodwater slowly moved down the Indus River towards the sea.

Continuing heavy rain hampered the rescue efforts. After visiting Pakistan, the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, said that this disaster was worse than anything he’d ever seen. He described the floods as a slow-moving tsunami.

The effect of the floods · At least 1600 people died · 20 million Pakistanis were affected (over 10% of the population), 6 million needed food aid · Whole villages were swept away, and over 700,000 homes were damaged or destroyed · Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis were displaced, and many suffered from malnutrition and a lack of clean water · 5000 miles of roads and railways were washed away, along with 1000 bridges · 160,000km2 of land were affected. That’s at least 20% of the country · About 6.5 million acres of crops were washed away in Punjab and Sindh provinces

The responses to the floods · Appeals were immediately launched by international organisation, like the UK’s Disasters Emergency Committee – and the UN – to help Pakistanis hit by the floods · Many charities and aid agencies provided help, including the Red Crescent and Medecins Sans Frontieres · Pakistan’s government also tried to raise money to help the huge number of people affected · But there were complaints that the Pakistan government was slow to respond to the crisis, and that it struggled to cope · Foreign Governments donated millions of dollars, and Saudi Arabia and the USA promised $600 million in flood aid. But many people felt that the richer foreign governments didn’t do enough to help · The UN’s World Food Programme provided crucial food aid. But, by November 2010, they were warning that they might have cut the amount of food handed out, because of a lack of donations from richer countries

Rivers and flooding Case study: Bangladesh

It is important to understand what causes flooding and what the effects can be. Flood prevention processes help to reduce damage and protect people in the event of a flood.

Part of Geography (Environment and society) Rivers and Water

Case study: Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a developing country in Asia and it is frequently affected by flooding. For example, in 2007 flooding made 9 million people homeless and approximately 1,000 people died from drowning and from waterborne diseases close waterborne disease Diseases spread by contact with infected water. .

Causes of flooding in Bangladesh

• Cyclones cause coastal flooding.
• Lots of low-lying land.
• Melt water from the Himalayas.
• Heavy deforestation.
• Heavy monsoon close monsoon A strong seasonal wind bringing heavy rain. rains.
• Increasing urban areas.

What has Bangladesh done to cope with flooding?

Bangladesh is a very poor country and so has less money to spend on flood defences than richer countries. Most people in Bangladesh do not earn enough to pay for insurance close insurance Bought protection against unfortunate events that may cost money, eg car insurance is paid so that damage is paid for in the event of an accident. against flooding, so when there are floods they risk losing everything.

Short-term responses to flooding

• Food aid from the Government and other countries.
• Water purification tablets .
• People repaired embankments close embankment A natural or man-made area of land at the side of a river bank. and helped to rescue people.
• Free seed given to farmers.

Long-term responses

• Building embankments .
• Building raised flood shelters .
• Introducing flood warning systems .
• Emergency planning .
• Dams planned.
• Reducing deforestation .

Unfortunately, many of these long-term responses are difficult to pay for and maintain. They are not always successful and don't always help enough people.

More guides on this topic

• Local rivers and how they function
• Processes in the river
• River management
• River processes and landforms
• The water cycle and river terminology

Understanding urban flood vulnerability and resilience: a case study of Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia

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• Open access
• Published: 14 March 2020
• Volume 101 , pages 551–571, ( 2020 )

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Malaysia is frequently affected by the annual flooding event caused by the seasonal monsoon which accounts for significant losses. Flood risk, exposure and damage potential are increasing, causing the level of poverty and vulnerability to rise. The annual occurrence of the flood hazard has forced residents to prepare beforehand to help them spring back to their daily life faster. This study aimed to investigate and understand the vulnerability and resilience of the victims towards floods in Kuantan, Pahang. A qualitative approach of focus group discussion (FGD) is used to obtain detailed and authentic information. A total of thirty-one (31) participants who were flood victims took part in the FGD. Six groups were formed for the FGD based on different criteria such as gender, age, education background, occupation, monthly income and social class. Each FGD group consisted of four to six participants. When the participants were asked to rank their top five daily challenges, many thought that flooding is not a threat compared to food, because flooding occurs annually and is predictable. The results showed that the participants are well aware of the causes of the vulnerability faced by them due to the flooding event. Reasons highlighted from the results for the flood occurrence are the demography of the area, the location of the houses, the improper and inaccurate information and evacuation plan, the management of the transit centre and the lack of preparation by the community. The participants also thought that poor dissemination of early warning information and flood control infrastructures from the government and other related agencies caused the victims to have insufficient time to prepare for emergencies, hence causing the recovery process to be slower. However, from their hands-on experiences, they were able to put forward suggestions on the resilience towards flood for future references.

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1 Introduction

The rapidly changing climate threatens to increase natural hazards and extreme weather such as floods, cyclones, hurricanes and drought, with floods being the most disastrous, frequent and widespread (Dhar and Nandargi 2003 ). Hydro-meteorological themed disaster has increased around Asia and South-East Asia countries over the last two decades. Countries such as China, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan are known as the supermarket for disaster especially in terms of disastrous floods (James 2008 ). Therefore, due to the global climate change, middle and rapidly developing countries are the victim of the economy as most of the damage caused by the disastrous events occur in poor countries with few assets. The occurrence of flooding are predicted to quadruple by 2080 as sea level is expected to continue rise due to global climate change (Small and Nicholls 2004 ). This is especially frightening for the population living in coastal areas as it is the most populated area in most countries with an estimate of 23% of world population living within 100 km and less than 100 m above sea level (Molua and Lambi 2007 ; Small and Nicholls 2004 ). Urban flooding is well known as it has caused damage and loss of life. Urban flooding inundates land or property in a built environment, particularly in densely populated areas. These floods are usually caused by flash floods, coastal floods or river floods, but urban flooding is often specifically due to poor drainage in urban areas. Urban flooding is often related to global climate change issues because most urban areas are the major contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that eventually causes global warming. Over concentrated population, increasing infrastructure and economy cause the sustainability of an urban area to worsen. Over time it has become more challenging for the government and developers to create development plan that balances the demand of urbanization while minimizing the use of natural resources. Urban planners should concern and practice actions against climate-induced disasters (Godschalk 2003 ; Saavedra and Budd 2009 ; Kithia and Dowling 2010 ).

Malaysia, as a South-East Asia country, is located near the equator with climate categorized as equatorial. Equatorial climate is relatively hot and super-humid throughout the year with average rainfall of 250 cm annually (DID, 2007 ). In addition, it is essential to learn that the climates in Peninsular Malaysia differ to East Malaysia where the climate in West Malaysia is directly influenced by the monsoon wind from the northeast and southwest, while in East Malaysia the climate is mostly influenced by maritime weather. A yearly constant cycle of heavy rainfall at the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and east of Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) between November and February are caused by the northeast monsoon wind while rain bearing winds from April to September caused by the southwest monsoon. The amount of rain from the southwest monsoon is lesser than the northeast monsoon that can reach up to 660 mm in 24 h. Annually, the average rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia can reach up to 2420 mm, while in Sabah and Sarawak, the amount of rainfall is more than the Peninsular with 2630 mm for Sabah and 3830 mm for Sarawak (DID 2007 ). According to Chia ( 1971 ), there are two types of rainfalls that cause the flood. They are (1) moderate intensity, long duration rainfall at a wide area and (2) high intensity, short duration localized rainfall. The occurrence of floods in Malaysia can be predicted. Usually, east coast and eastern Malaysia were affected by floods during December to January as the northeast monsoon sweeps, while the west coast of Peninsular is mainly affected in September to November with thunderstorms due to the inter-monsoon period. Generally, in Malaysia, most floods occur due to continuous heavy rainfalls that result in runoff due to the excess of water supplies that surpass the capacities of streams and rivers.

Several major flood events have occurred in Malaysia over the last few decades. For example, a gale force wind period in 1886 caused severe flooding in Kelantan. In 1926, the worst floods in Peninsular Malaysia caused scares among the people as it caused widespread damage to property, mental, physical, infrastructure and agriculture. After the initial days of the flood, projected losses to local business in and around the Klang River valley were estimated at around $12,000 Straits dollars. Even for those who did not suffer major flood damage, all businesses lost several day’s trade as the city stood at standstill. In Pahang, a private railway linking the plantation to mines at Sungei Lembing was partially washed away and trains had to be dug out of the mud afterwards (Williamson 2016 ). Flooding has become a significant yearly event occurrence in Malaysia especially at the end of the year. Most of the flood-prone areas can be found in several states in Peninsular Malaysia such as Kelantan, Johor, Pahang, Perak, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor while for east Malaysia it is Sabah and Sarawak (DID 2007 ). Most of the states in Malaysia are prone to flood risk due to (1) the natural physical topography and drainage, and (2) human geography of settlement and land use. Malaysia in the past is mostly riverine people that choose to inhabit banks and floodplain of the major river such as Pahang river, where most of the settlement is indeed high in flood risk (Chan 2012 ). Most of the floods occur due to the monsoon rainfall and intense rain storms. However, in recent decades, the cause of flood is not only due to natural events; the frequent occurrence of flash flood in cities such as Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Kelantan was caused by poor drainage and area where rapid urbanization takes place. Chia ( 1971 ) stated several sources that cause flooding in Malaysia, loss of flood storage results from development that extend towards floodplain areas, the increase and rapid urbanisation that cause the rate of runoff to increases, faulty drainage system by the locals and continuous heavy rainfalls that cause the water storage to exceed the capacity of the river.

The annually frequent flood that occurs in Malaysia has taken a toll on the socio-economy in terms of flood damages. The flood damage is on the rise due to the increase in flood risks such as the urban development on flood plain area of major rivers. The damages and the losses caused by the flood can be direct or indirect, where direct flood damage is due to the contact of flood water with the building while indirect flood damage causes loss of work and production that eventually cause the victim to develop stress and suffering (Green et al. 1988 ). The estimated amount of damages due to the flooding is superior in compact and high densities urban areas compared to rural areas. According to Chan ( 1997 ), the chance of extreme flood damage occurrence is high in large urban centers such as Kuala Lumpur and Georgetown, Pulau Pinang. Moreover, aside from damages towards the economy, the flood may give permanent aftermath towards mental health and death. It is not unusual for the flood victims to suffer from trauma and mental health for the rest of their lives. Usually, those with a fragile mental state are more susceptible to mental collapse when they were engaged to the unwonted and wicked situation or events. Women and children are the group of people that easily suffer in a critical event. According to Jamaluddin ( 1985 ), to abate post-traumatic events, the victims themselves need to concur the situation in a more positive and appropriate ways for a chance of quick recovery.

Following the annual flooding event occurrence in Malaysia, the government (including the Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID)) has carried out several positive actions to mitigate the flood problem. These consist of structural measures and non-structural measures (Chan 2015 ). Structural measures focus more on how banks and embankments play their role in controlling flood flows. Example of structural measures taken by the government is the Storm Water Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) in Kuala Lumpur to alleviate flash flood problems that occur when heavy rainfalls hit Kuala Lumpur (Umar 2007 ). An example of non-structural measures relates land use planning and flood forecasting and warning systems to mitigate the impact of flooding, such as the flood forecasting and warning system (DID 1988 ). Most of the flood mitigation projects and actions undertaken by the government were structural measures such as canalization of rivers, raising river embankments and the building of a multi-purpose dam. Yet, the government has been upgrading the Flood Forecasting and Warning System for early warning. This infrastructure had been installed all over Malaysia with 233 telemetric rainfall stations, 190 telemetric water level stations, 256 manual stick gauges, 84 flood warning boards, 217 flood sirens and 9 real-time flood forecasting and warning system in 9 river basins (DID 2007 ). The DID has also taken an initiative to established an Internet-based National Flood Monitoring System ( http://infobanjir.moa.my ) where all the data on rainfall and water level can be accessed by the public. In brief, the flood management activities attempted by the government of Malaysia are (1) the National Resource Study, (2) Development of infrastructure for flood forecasting and warning system, (3) National Flood Monitoring System, (4) Flood Watch and (5) Urban Storm Water Management Manual for Malaysia (Hussaini 2007 ).

Vulnerability and resilience act as a leading tool to quantify and map human aftermath from hazards. In the context of social–ecological systems, resilience refers to the magnitude of disturbance that can be absorbed before a system changes to a radically different state as well as the capacity to self-organize and the capacity for adaptation to emerging circumstances (e.g., Carpenter et al. 2001 ; Berkes et al. 2003 ; Folke 2006 ). Vulnerability, by contrast, is usually portrayed in negative terms as the susceptibility to be harmed. The central idea of the often-cited IPCC definition (McCarthy et al. 2001 ) is that vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to and is unable to cope with adverse effects (of climate change). According to Proag ( 2014 ) vulnerability is defined as a measure of hazard that compliance with physical, economy and social and the implication that results in the ability to cope with the event occurrence. While the concept of resilience itself has taken two broad forms of (1) hard resilience and (2) soft resilience (Moench 2009 ) where hard resilience is a direct strength when placed under pressure and soft strength is the ability to absorb and recover from the impact of destructive event (Rufat et al. 2015 ). According to Balica and Wright ( 2010 ), resilience is the ability of a system to handle commotions while maintaining the efficiency in social, economic, physical and environment. It is in the nature of human being to become vulnerable when their normal daily activities, facilities and consumption were affected in critical factor from the disaster. Moreover, the demographic characteristic, socioeconomic status and health is the leading driver of vulnerability due to flooding events. Resilience is a system that functions to work in a certain way under normal circumstances. Therefore, resilience is important in several sectors such as technical, political, environment, ecology, economy, legal and in an organization. Variables that usually concerned in measuring the degree and magnitude of vulnerability and resilience from disastrous events is employment, income, health and educational status. Jackson ( 2006 ) stated that resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity are inter-related with each other when it comes to natural disaster events. Not only that, it also stated that a community with low vulnerability has the potential to have high resilience. Several other definitions of resilience can be found in Table  1 . Vulnerability deals more with the environmental risk and hazards while for resilience, it deals more with the change and persistence of an ecosystem (Carpenter et al. 2001 ; Gunderson 2000 ). Furthermore, in flood-prone rural areas, the norms of poverty have heightened vulnerability among the poor while in the urban area, the vulnerability is much lower compared to the rural area as more strategies, planning, investment and development were undertaken to curb the problem (resilience). In short, the poor suffer more from hazards compared to the wealthy, although poverty and vulnerability are not always related or in line with each other (Chan and Parker 1996 ). The vulnerability experienced by the poor was due to the lack of opportunity and access to structures of power where knowledge and resources of the hazard or disaster were limited. In addition, aside from the poor, vulnerability is familiar among the lower income groups, Malaysia is dominated by the Bumiputera communities where fatalities were common while low-level vulnerability can be expected in the urban settlement where it is mostly populated by the Chinese and Indians. This is because, back in the past before the Chinese and Indians ethnics populated Malaysia, the Bumiputera that originated from the Peninsular choose to settle in the area near the coastal and major rivers where they can have easy access to food and transportation. Resilience actions need to cultivate and be implemented in order to prevent damages and loss of life. This needs to be one of the main purposes of development rather than a characteristic of a good development (Bene et al. 2012 ). Resilience needs to be applied in urbanization process as urban areas were known to be complicated social ecological systems (Simon 2007 ; Swyngedouw and Heynen 2003 ).

The aim of this paper is to investigate the perceptive of the urban community on the vulnerability of flood. Next, this paper studies on the various suggestion from the local community on future resilience towards flood event. A method of focus group discussion (FGD) was applied in order to obtained detail and compact information from the stakeholder in a different category of people or group of people. From the results, it showed that the urban community was aware of the cause of the vulnerability in their neighbourhood towards the flood event. The data obtained from the FGD were solely from the real-life experience of the stakeholder that were involved in the group discussion. From the discussion, various suggestions have been put forward by the stakeholder on their future resilience actions towards flooding.

2 Materials and method

Information regarding the urban flooding situation and experiences was collected through the qualitative method known as focus group discussions (FGD) that consists of structured discussion that are usually used to obtain in-depth information from a group of people about a specific topic. The group discussion was engaged by the flooding victims themselves; therefore information regarding sensitive topics can be obtained. The district of Kuantan which is located in the state of Pahang was selected as the study area due to the lack of research done in the state compared to other flood-prone states such as Selangor and Kelantan. In this study, the researchers were interested in the vulnerability faced by the flooding victims, annually, in the district of Kuantan and the local resilience measures taken to minimize the natural disasters.

2.1 Study area

Figure  1 shows a map of Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia. The district of Kuantan is situated in the state of Pahang. Pahang is the third largest state in Malaysia after Sarawak and Sabah. Geographically, Pahang is the biggest state in Peninsular Malaysia and has the longest river in Peninsular Malaysia at 459 km. Since Peninsular Malaysia is affected by two monsoons (northeast and southwest monsoon) and two inter monsoons (Suhaila et al. 2010 ), the Pahang Basin receives a high total of rainfall during the northeast monsoon period that contributes and causes flooding events along the river in the basin (DID 2005 ). Other main sources of flooding in the basin are the extreme increase in river discharge due to the monsoon and the sea waves from the South China Sea. The overflow water results in floods within the basin area which occur yearly, particularly from November to December (Lun et al. 2010 ). Kuantan has a total area of 2453 km 2 and is situated 250 km east from Kuala Lumpur. The monsoon that brought the heavy rainfall in November to December every year is 2.3 times higher than the normal average rainfall. The Kuantan River Basin (KRB) is an important watershed of Kuantan city. The basin starts from Sungai Lembing, passing through Kuantan and finally drains to the South China Sea. Heavy rainfall causes spill over of rivers and flooding in low areas that encompass human activities, both social and economic. In December 2001 to January 2002, Kuantan experienced a massive flood caused by continuous heavy rainfall during the northeast monsoon. Most of the city area was submerged under water when nearby rivers overflowed. This incident affected 18,000 people and 22.94 km 2 of land (EKA 2002 ). Another dreadful flood condition and incident occurred 10 years after the massive flood happened in 2001/2002; an unexpected flood due to continuous rainfall that caused 6000 victims to lose property and assets. Due to the poor drainage system in Kuantan, the intercity roads that connect people from city to city were badly flooded causing hundreds of vehicles to be trapped. The recent flood occurrence in 2013 was caused by the prolonged heavy rainfall, high tides and rapid urbanization process. More development was undertaken in the low-lying area that are easily flooded. The 2013 flood in Kuantan caused 14,044 people to be evacuated from their houses. Furthermore, the flood resulted in major damages towards basic facilities such as electricity, road structures, buildings and personal belongings. These have cost a fortune for the government to repair the damages done by the flood hazard (Jamaludin et al. 2013 ). Aside from heavy rainfall caused by the northeast monsoon, the occurrence of flooding in Kuantan can be due to the rise in temperature that causes heavy rainfall and rise in sea level.

The study area

2.2 Participants

The victims of the flooding hazard were identified in the study area. A total of 31 participants joined the focus group discussion. This method was applied to conceptualize the relationship between vulnerability and resilience of the urban community from people with different backgrounds. Six focus group discussions (FGDs) were formed during this study. The groups were formed to discuss the urban flood vulnerability and resilience based on different criteria of gender, age, education background, occupation, monthly income and social class. Each of the FGD group consisted of four to six participants from various backgrounds. The list of FGD participant for each group is shown in Table  2 which highlights differences in the number of participants in each group due to the difficulty in getting participants despite earlier preparations. Most of the participants involved were selected from the haphazard settlement around Kuantan River, Isap River, Belat River, Pandan River and Galing River. The discussion was participated by the flooding victims with age range from 16 to 69 years old. A wide range of ages helped in widening the answer and opinion on the highlighted issues in the group discussion due to differences in generations and ways of thinking. The group discussion was participated in 16 females and 15 males.

2.3 Data collection

Data collection was carried out in March 2016. Qualitative data collection method was applied to extract ground information on the relationship between vulnerability and resilience of the urban community from different background. The two-qualitative method applied was the focus group discussion (FGD) and field observation. In this study, the semi-conducted interview was the main approach for data collection. FGD is a qualitative method that has been defined as a discussion that has been carefully designed to gain or gather impressions or viewpoints on a defined circle of interest in a non-threatening environment (Kruger 1994 ). Moreover, the group discussion, focuses on perceptions, opinions and the motives underlying their acts and behaviour (Greenbaum 2000 ; Hyden and Bulow 2003 ; Maykut and Morehouse 1994 ). This method was chosen for the study because it is particularly useful for exploring people’s or the victim’s experience and knowledge (Kitzinger 1995 ).

An informed consent agreement was obtained from those who agreed to take part in the discussion, and a suitable time for the discussion was agreed. All the participants in the group discussion were asked to describe their various experiences. At the beginning of each focus group session a moderator introduced themselves and gave a brief explanation about the procedures of the discussion to the participants. Besides conducting the discussion in the group, the moderator helped the participants to focus on the topic discussed. Each focus group session was conducted for no longer than 45 min. The key questions prepared earlier for the moderator to discuss with their respective group are shown in Fig.  2 . All of the conversations that occurred in the discussion group were recorded on video for further analysis.

FGD key questions

2.4 Data analysis

The FGD was video recorded and later analysed using qualitative inductive content analysis, also known as qualitative data analysis. The analysis was carried out in several steps which involved coding, whereby raw data were raised to conceptual level. It is pertinent to analyse data for context as it involves identifying conditions, nature of the situation, circumstances or problems from the participants response. This study analysed the qualitative data by utilizing computer-aided software or computer-aided qualitative data software (CAQDAS), Atlas.ti. Atlas.ti is known for its capability in workbench for qualitative data analysis particularly for audio data. This software analysed and interpreted text and audio using coding and annotating activities. For analysing, the video and audio data were transcribed into word processing documents. Every word, sentence and paragraph needed to be analysed attentively for further interpretation of the data. Therefore, it is important to organize, reduce and describe the data delicately in order to avoid unnecessary mistakes that will affect the results produced. According to Schwandt ( 1997 ), the analysis must be done in a rigorous, systematic, disciplined and imitative manner with the documented methodology. Thereupon, to analyse simply means to break down the data into coding (Miles and Huberman 1994 ) and categories (Dey 1993 ). Initial coding using CAQDAS is time-consuming to ensure that the building of the codes is systematic. As the data are broken up for classification, it is then developed into a concept where connections are made between them to enable new descriptions to be made. Next, once the data were classified, they were checked for regularities, variation and peculiarities in patterns. This helps in identifying potential connections by data linking and associations among the categories. All in all, the most important steps in qualitative analysis are to select a sufficient amount of data in one time and to process the raw data (video interview) into coding (Dey 1993 ) before running it into Atlas.ti software for further analysis and results.

Using constant comparative analysis, data from interview and observation, resulted in several primary categories such as daily life challenges, vulnerability due to the urban flooding and finally the resilience towards flooding. These are presented in order below.

3.1 Top daily life challenges

One of the questions asked during the FGD was how the participants ranked their top daily life challenges including flooding. The results showed that most of the participants rank flooding as the least important challenge because for them, the floods only occur once a year when the northeast monsoon season passes by the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. On the contrary, food supplies, health, education, economy and social issues are the top daily life challenges, respectively, as all these challenges are applicable on a daily basis. Hence, only when their environment is affected by flood, will it disturb their daily activities. Figure  3 shows the results for top daily life challenges faced by the participants and the comments on the challenges they faced.

Top daily life challenges ranked by the participants

The top daily challenges consist of seven elements: food, flood, health, education, economy, safety and social. The participants were expected to rank their top five daily challenges according to their priorities. Two sets of results were obtained and new challenges were added and discussed. Figure  4 shows the results of the two sets of daily life challenges ranked by the participants. Social and safety were added in the discussion as additional challenges where the participant ascertains that it is important to be included.

Result of top daily life challenges ranked by the participants

Figure shows that from the two sets of results on the daily challenges, the first set shows that food is the priority while the flood was ranked last. However, in the second set of results some participants believed flooding should be ranked first. Those participants who ranked flood first live in areas that are seriously affected by the annual flood. Not only that, they also stated that the flooding event causes them hardships and disturbed their normal daily life. Conversely, those who ranked flood as their last priority in the daily challenges are from areas where the occurrence of flood is predictable and happens once a year; thus they have the opportunity to prepare beforehand. The constant occurrence and the signal given by the nature such as changes of the wind and cloud, and tidal water level at coastal and river basin help the victims to prepare themselves. Garai ( 2017 ) stated that understanding the sign and signal from the changes in nature has helped the people in the past to predict the upcoming flooding event. Moreover, technologies and experts from the meteorology department were able to predict and warn people about the upcoming event. Most of the participants ranked food first because it is important to have continuous supply for survival. Flooding will cause damages to most of the goods including foods. Food stalls, supermarket, mini markets and sundry shops will be closed down due to the flood. This will cause disruption in food supplies; hence, it is important to prepare and stock up the food supplies before the flood occurs. Equally important to food is health. For most of the participants, health is crucial. The impact of health from flooding comes in many forms. According to Rufat et al. ( 2015 ), one-third of the deaths during flood events occur away from the floodwater. Examples of deaths that can occur away from floodwater include deaths from dehydration, stroke, lack of medicine supplies and negligence of health issues prior to flood events (Jonkman et al. 2009 ).

Besides death, flooding can affect the mental health and psychology of a victim. The psychological effects are different according to anxiety and stress, age, gender, previous health condition and recovery duration, effects can usually acute after the event (Stanke et al. 2012 ). Other health issues such as water borne diseases due to contaminated water, malnutrition, fever and other infectious diseases are easily spread during and after the flood when the victims interact with each other at the transit centre. While discussing the top daily challenges, participants highlighted the importance of social and security issues. Social problems involving the teenagers and young adults usually increased. Most of the social problems that involve teenagers are vandalism, burglary and theft. Adger ( 1999 ) in his study stated that the actions displayed by the teenagers may be due to coping behaviour, stress or access to certain resources or needs. However, social problems are not limited to teenagers only. Adults who are also desperate took advantage from the flood event usually caused social problems. They usually break into the flood victim houses and steal any valuable goods such as electric appliance, jewelleries, car, motorcycles and even the house parts such as steels, wires and cable. This is when the social security elements from the discussion among the participants surfaced. Security in this context is not limited to assets and goods, but also the safety of individuals during the flood to avoid any casualties and death. Making sure all the important and valuable goods and assets are in a safe place before the flood occurred ensures the safety of the people’s belongings. On the other hand, the security and safety of individuals during and after the flood is the top priority while it is encouraged to help those affected by flood, but not to the extent of risking their own life. For example, it is reported that there was a case of death at Kampung Isap where a man died due to drowning while trying to rescue another flood victim. Therefore, it is important to prioritize and take care of one’s own life and safety during and after the flood events.

3.2 Vulnerability

This study investigated the vulnerability to flooding of the community of the study area. The results from the analysis are shown in Fig.  5 . From the FGD, there are several reasons that cause the vulnerability to flooding in the community. Grounds and claims such as houses built near to the river banks and lowland areas, improper and ineffective flood evacuation plans, mismanagement of flood transit centres, lack of instant and accurate flood information and the lack of preparation for the flood by the community members have caused increases in the vulnerability of people to the flood event. Figure  5 shows that middle-aged participants ranging from 26 to 45 years old were concerned about the location of the housing area that can be easily affected by the flood, such as lowland area, near the river banks and swamp area. Meanwhile, the vulnerability of the older generation, from 56 to 65 years old, is mostly due to their refusal to stay at the transit centre, the type of their houses that are usually made from wood and the location of their houses which are mostly located near the beach that make it difficult for them to evacuate. In terms of income, for the participants with monthly income of less than RM1000 and less than RM3000, flooding has made them vulnerable and insecure. However, they refused to move to the transit centre as it may put their house at risk of burglary. Also, some of the transit centres are located far from their houses and some transit centres have imposed payment on the victims for shelter. For gender category, both males and females agree that uncertain flood warnings and warning issued only on high tides have caused them to be more vulnerable. The victims that are involved in the JKKK (village committee) have different vulnerability compared to the residents. The JKKK often faced problems during evacuation of other flood victims because most of them refused to be evacuated as they prefer to wait and see what unfolds. Different from the vulnerability faced by the JKKK committee, the residents are vulnerable towards the flood in terms of government aid that won’t be enough to recover their damaged goods.

The participants’ flood vulnerability

Victims with different education background seem to have made different choices about their house location, hence faced different vulnerability. Victims with high school education background mostly live near the riverbank which is more vulnerable, while those with college education background choose to live near the highways which can be easily accessed for an escape. Lastly, government, self-employment and private occupational victims have different aspect of vulnerability. Most of the victims that work with the government are more concerned on the accuracy of information circulated by the social media, the challenges in evacuation of sick victims and those whose houses are at low ground. As for self-employed victims, they are vulnerable because they can only afford houses situated on lower ground. They are more worried about losing their house and not having the ability to repair or build a new house. Evacuation is difficult because unlike the government and private sectors, they do not have holidays and have to work almost everyday. Those working in the private sector are more concerned about the condition of the transit centre during the flood. They are worried if the transit centre is not safe. All in all, in terms of health, most victims lack preparation for medicine and other basic medical facilities even before the flood occurs.

4 Discussion

This study has examined aspects related to urban flooding in the study area. The main aspects are daily life challenges, vulnerability from the flooding, and the local future resilience towards floods. Everyone who was involved in the disaster will be impacted to some extent. Therefore, this study explores the response, reactions and the resilience of the victims before, during and after the event and why such behaviour and action were taken and displayed.

Vulnerability has been known as a leading tool to quantify and map human dimensions of hazards. The vulnerability of people to flooding is usually affected by variables such as income, ethnicity, education, age and gender. According to Rufat et al. ( 2015 ), income and poverty are the key drivers in vulnerability. Ajibade et al. ( 2013 ) think that women and children are more vulnerable compared to men because they are physically weaker than men and that the roles and responsibilities of women during flood event are more dangerous. The harder it is for someone to reconstruct their lives after the disastrous event, the more vulnerable they are. Contextual aspects of vulnerable populations obtained from the discussion are shown in Fig.  5 . From the discussion, the vulnerability of the participants towards the flood can be grouped into geographical setting (location), socioeconomic, related agencies (societal network and insurance company) and the disaster’s phase (during the flood). All the variables listed are the important keys to deconstruct vulnerability. Most of the vulnerability stated by the participants in the discussion is related to the location of the housing area. Houses located close to the riverbank, swamp and lowland area are vulnerable to the flood. This is because these areas can be easily flooded when the rivers overflow due to heavy rainfall and runoff from the higher area. Rapid urban development without consideration of the local housing area has also increased flooding. Intensity of the improper drainage systems and an imbalance in the embankment of lowland area for development has resulted in negative impacts on the locals, where local residences have to face unpredictable flood events caused by the embankment and incomplete drainage system designed by the developer. Moreover, the location of houses that are difficult to access, such as the beach area, hinder the process of evacuation and hence caused the victims to be vulnerable during the monsoon season. Meanwhile, the vulnerability in socioeconomic factors is measured through household income, poverty, unemployment, educational status and wealth (Rufat et al. 2015 ). According to Chan and Parker ( 1996 ), age and gender are related to income, those over 50 years of age have a comparatively low source of income. It is believed that income and poverty are the key drivers for vulnerability. According to Friend and Moench ( 2013 ), poverty and vulnerability are related but not the same; individuals with greater wealth experience are less vulnerable to flooding event. Therefore, since most of the victims in the study area have low income, the environment and housing conditions of the neighbourhood are poor. The material of the house is old and easily destroyed by flood and hence increased the vulnerability of the victims in the total loss of their house.

Nevertheless, the vulnerability in agencies such as insurance company and social network company is varied. For example, some of the victims may falsify claims towards the insurance agency for flood support. This is due to the shortage of money and funding necessary to get back to their daily life. Then, the vulnerability in social media towards the victims is because of the amount of outdated information that may lead to misunderstanding within groups of flood victims. The social media network needs to be sharp and alert in updating information regarding on the weather forecast from the meteorology stations. This is because most of the victims rely on the news they heard on TV, radio and even online social media for further actions. Finally, the victims are most vulnerable during the disaster phase. Some of the victims refused to stay at the flood transit centre because they are worried that their house may be at the risk of being robbed or the transit centre is situated a long way from their housing area. The risk perception that influences the vulnerability of the victims resulting in refusal to be transported to the transit centre is fear, uncertainty and worry of the safety of their family members, assets and properties (Willis et al. 2011 ). Nevertheless, the victims that faced a total loss of their house were evacuated to the transit centre for temporary shelter. Sometimes unexpected incidents such as black outs happened at the transit centre due to the electricity failure, which may cause trauma and panic attack to the flood victims at the transit centre where they do not feel safe and secure. For sick and elderly victims who are in wheel chairs, or others who are on machines and medical support, evacuation due to the flooding could be challenging, both for the victims and the evacuators. Furthermore, the uncertainties of flood warning and forecast caused them to be mentally tired all the time. In addition, some of the victims used the approach of ‘wait and see’; hence they refused to be evacuated in the early phase of the flood. They will only evacuate when the situation worsens. This is a challenge to the volunteers. On the other hand, when the victims are evacuated, they are forced to leave their food stuff behind; therefore, they are depending solely on the food aid by the government at the transit centre. The continuous rain fall over a long period will caused the victims to be more vulnerable as more materials and properties will be damaged and destroyed by the floods and these will not be recovered by the government. Hence, more expenditure is needed to compensate their losses.

Towards the end of the discussion, the participants were asked about their resilience towards flooding in the future. The results from the discussion can be seen in Fig.  6 . Resilience is defined as the ability of a system to bear any commotion while sustaining certain levels of efficiency in its social, economic, physical and environment component (Balica and Wright 2010 ). There are several dimensions of resilience that have been highlighted by the participants such as the construction of flood barriers, information and updates on the flood, distribution of material support, transit centre and development on lowland. The participants acknowledged the present effort by relevant government agencies in helping and handling the flood hazard, but in their opinion, more can be done. The participant’s perceptions regarding their resilience are that improvements need to be planned and supported by the government and other related agencies. By providing awareness programs for the public and information and updates on the flood situation, it helps the victims to understand more about flooding and hence help them in preparing and building resilience for future hazards. The participants also hoped that the authorities will be more sensitive to risk reduction including housing, infrastructure, utilities systems and regulation of land development according to the level of risk. In their opinion, there should not be any more development of lowland areas and the reclamation built by the developer need to be looked through of the side effects towards the present housing area. This is because some of the reclamation of land for new urban development areas has caused flooding to the present housing areas. The reclamation wall may accidentally block the water ways or the bypass for the overflow water to be discharged to the sea, thus causing unwanted and extreme flooding to the lowland area. The building of the water barrier has also caused the housing settlement between the barriers to be turned into a pond when overflow waters become stagnant in the middle of the lowland area. On the other hand, according to the participants, the distribution of the food aid given by the government to the victims needs to be supervised because there were cases where some of the victims were overlooked and they missed the aid that was distributed. Finally, the provision of community facilities such as evacuation centre, transit centres and temporary shelters is important in order to minimize residents’ exposure to flood hazard. The participants stated that the victims preferred transit centres close to their houses. Public schools are typically used as evacuation grounds and temporary shelters during the disaster which are short in facilities, such as shower rooms. Victims are also worried about the cleanliness and hygiene of the public school. Developer and the state government are urged to build a proper transit centre for the victims to shelter where inadequacy of water and sanitary facilities should be the primary consideration. Therefore, the commitment and the involvement of government, NGO and urban dwellers in long-term flood management and risk will help in assisting the community in minimizing the damages resulted from the hazard; hence, they will manage to get back to their normal daily life in a short time.

The suggested future flood resilience

5 Conclusion

All of the detail and genuine information on the vulnerability and the resilience of the floods from this study were obtained from the qualitative method called focus group discussion (FGD). The study was designed to capture the full range of perceptions on flooding from the urban community. The participants of the group discussion were volunteers who were interviewed for research purpose. Participants were divided into six groups with different demographic background for holistic results. The participants were willing to describe in detail the event, including their feelings and emotions towards the disaster. The information and data obtained are valuable and crucial to understanding the urban flood resilience and vulnerability theory and perceptions. Hence, it is equally important to take into consideration the response, actions and the reactions behind the participants’ behaviour that were displayed. These will help in formulating future planning for effective flood hazard management.

The outcomes when the participants were asked to rank their top five daily challenges were obtained, and they showed that most felt that flooding is not the uppermost daily threat to them as the flood comes annually and is mostly predictable. The victims are most concerned with continuous food supply. Those who felt flood is a threat to them is due to the fact that they live in flood-prone areas. On the other hand, several participants believed that health is the most important variable in their daily life because without good health, they will not be able to work or execute their daily activities. After food and health, other challenges according to participants’ priorities are education, economy, security and social. A large proportion of the population of the study area remains poor and vulnerable to floods, especially in the rural settlement. In other aspects, poor dissemination of early warning information and flood control infrastructures from the government and other related agencies have caused the victims to have little time to prepare for emergencies and hence cause the recovery process to be slower. Moreover, the housing location for most of the participants is within lowland areas which made them more vulnerable. Lowland areas are easily flooded due to heavy rainfall and tidal water from the South China Sea. Thus, it causes an abrupt increase in water volume that exceeds the river basin capacity. New development such as housing ranging from the hill to the valley is one of the major causes of increased flooding in the study area. What determines one’s vulnerability is the gender roles, place, employment, health care, income and social status. The outcome shows that gender has no significance in determining vulnerability. Both male and females voiced concerns about the inefficiency in flood warning and forecasts issued by the government and media during the flood. Results also showed that participants with high or low income faced the same level of vulnerability. However, they refused to move to the designated flood transit centre due to the risk of their house being robbed and the location of the transit centre is far from their house. Notably, the low income victims were hit harder compared to the high income victims because they need more money and other sources of income in order to get back to their daily life. Lots of everyday appliances and goods need to be repaired or replaced which are costly to the poor. Therefore, in order to decrease the vulnerability due to the flooding event, resilience need be cultivated. A lesson should be learnt from the past event and actions should be taken to avoid losses. Structural and non-structural flood mitigation solutions should be taken and adapted to the flood-prone areas. A better flood prevention, mitigation response and rehabilitation should be implied in the disaster risk management.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by University of Malaya Research Grant under the Frontier Science Grant RG358-15AFR and Equitable Society Grant RP026B-15SBS, the engineers, assistance engineers and staff of Water Resources and Hydrology Unit, Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID), Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia, the Kuantan District Officer, Kuantan Assistant District Officer, Penghulu Mukim (Headman) of Mukim Kuala Kuantan 1, staff of Kuantan District Office, Kuantan, Pahang and the Kuantan residents who have contributed in this article.

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M. Y. Safiah Yusmah, H. Norhaslina, A. Ghaffarianhoseini & A. S. Shereen Farisha

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L. J. Bracken

Department of Geography and Environment, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Tanjong Malim, 35900, Perak, Malaysia

Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Built Environment, University Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

M. D. Melasutra

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Safiah Yusmah, M.Y., Bracken, L.J., Sahdan, Z. et al. Understanding urban flood vulnerability and resilience: a case study of Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia. Nat Hazards 101 , 551–571 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03885-1

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looding is a major hazard affecting urban centres worldwide, including the city of Nairobi. This phenomenon is associated with loss of lives, destruction of property and disruption of the normal day to day activities. This study sought to identify the causes of these floods, focussing on the South C area of Nairobi which is prone to flooding. The study further sought to investigate the impact of flooding in the study area and examine the policy and legal strategies put in place to manage the menace of flooding in Nairobi County. Finally, the study proposed possible solutions to the flooding in the study area. In regard to finding out the causes of flooding, data from the meteorological department was analysed, maps of the existing drainage in the area were studied, questionnaires were issued to the residents of the area and past reports on the subject were studied. The major causes of the flooding in the area were found to be poor maintenance of the drainage systems, small capacity of the drainage system, vast areas of impervious surface and climate change. The area was also found to be located on a flood plain with the adjacent areas seated on higher altitudes. From this study it was noted that the major impact of flooding in the study area was disruption of the daily activities and discomfort of the residents. The residents found it difficult to access their work places and to take their children to school. Overflow of the storm runoff into the households caused discomfort and destruction of the household property. This study also ascertained that there are various legal, policy and institutional arrangement that have been put in place in order to combat the dangers posed by natural hazards in Kenya, However, the study determined that there are no specific policies or legal recommendations that have been formulated by the government towards mitigation of flooding hazards in urban centres. From this study, it was established that there is need for the relevant authorities to ensure that drainage infrastructure is regularly maintained. In addition to this, the drainage capacity of the channels should be increased so as to accommodate the runoff during storm events. This study also recommended that the residents in the area be sensitized to take part in cleanliness and maintenance of the drainage channels and their environment as a whole. Finally, the government should undertake to construct a dam or rehabilitate the existing Nairobi Dam so as to direct the storm waters into the dam for storage.

© University of Nairobi 2024.  All rights Reserved.

Persistent rainfall causes changes in drought and flood risk

BOWLING GREEN, Ky. (WBKO) - The weather the last few days has brought steady rain to our area. As a result of the rain, area rivers are seeing rising water levels and improving drought conditions.

The map below shows rainfall received from Tuesday through Thursday. Hardin County had the highest rainfall totals with over three inches, especially within Elizabethtown.

As of Thursday, drought conditions improved for most of Kentucky. Areas along and east of I-65 have been removed of drought conditions. Areas west of I-65 remain mostly abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions closer to Paducah.

With the recent rainfall, area rivers have been rising, with some expected to reach the action stage. Most of the higher rainfall will cause flooding concerns along the Ohio River along the Indiana/Kentucky border.

As a reminder, these are the different flood forecast levels and what they mean:

• None : river levels are at normal levels and not forecasted to increase significantly
• Action : river levels are above normal but are below flood levels that would impact nearby areas
• Minor : river levels are above normal and will impact areas along the river with some flood damage possible
• Moderate : river levels are well above normal, and many areas will likely be affected by flood damage
• Major : river levels are significantly above normal, and likely reaching record heights causing serious flood damage including health risks

Copyright 2024 WBKO. All rights reserved.

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Far fewer young Americans now want to study in China. Both countries are trying to fix that

The Associated Press

April 13, 2024, 11:37 AM

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Stephen Garrett, a 27-year-old graduate student, always thought he would study in China, but the country’s restrictive COVID-19 policies made it nearly impossible and now he sees interest among fellow scholars wane even after China reopened.

Common concerns, he said, include restrictions on academic freedom and the risk of being stranded in China.

These days, only about 700 American students are studying at Chinese universities, down from a peak of close to 25,000 a decade ago, while there are nearly 300,000 Chinese students at U.S. schools.

Some young Americans are discouraged from investing their time in China by what they see as diminishing economic opportunities and strained relations between Washington and Beijing.

Whatever the reason for the imbalance, U.S. officials and scholars bemoan the lost opportunities for young people to experience life in China and gain insight into a formidable American adversary.

And officials from both countries agree that more should be done to encourage the student exchanges, at a time when Beijing and Washington can hardly agree on anything else.

“I do not believe the environment is as hospitable for educational exchange as it was in the past, and I think both sides are going to need to take steps,” said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.

The U.S. has advised its. citizens to “reconsider travel” to China over concerns of arbitrary detentions and widened use of exit bans to bar Americans from leaving the country. Campbell said this has hindered the rebuilding of the exchanges and easing the advisory is now under “active consideration.”

For its part, Beijing is rebuilding programs for international students that were shuttered during the pandemic, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has invited tens of thousands of U.S. high school students to visit.

The situation was far different after President Barack Obama started the 100,000 Strong initiative in 2009 to drastically increase the number of U.S. students studying in China.

By 2012, there were as many as 24,583 U.S. students in China, according to data by the Chinese education ministry. The Open Doors reports by the Institute of International Education, which only track students enrolled in U.S. schools and studying in China for credit, show the number peaked at 14,887 in the 2011-12 school year. But 10 years later, the number was down to only 211.

In late 2023, the number of American students stood at 700, according to Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China, who said this was far too few in a country of such importance to the United States.

“We need young Americans to learn Mandarin. We need young Americans to have an experience of China,” Burns said.

Without these U.S. students, “in the next decade, we won’t be able to exercise savvy, knowledgeable diplomacy in China,” warned David Moser, an American linguist who went to China in the 1980s and is now tasked with establishing a new master’s program for international students at Beijing Capital Normal University.

Moser recalled the years when American students found China fascinating and thought an education there could lead to an interesting career. But he said the days of bustling trade and money deals are gone, while American students and their parents are watching China and the United States move away from each other. “So people think investment in China as a career is a dumb idea,” Moser said.

After 2012, the number of American students in China dipped but held steady at more than 11,000 for several years, according to Open Doors, until the pandemic hit, when China closed its borders and kept most foreigners out. Programs for overseas students that took years to build were shuttered, and staff were let go, Moser said.

Amy Gadsden, executive director of China Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania, also attributed some of the declining interest to foreign businesses closing their offices in China. Beijing’s draconian governing style, laid bare by its response to the pandemic, also has given American students a pause, she said.

Garrett, who is on track to graduate this summer from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said he is ambivalent about working in China, citing the lack of access to information, restrictions on discussions of politically sensitive issues and China’s sweeping anti-spying law. He had lived in Hong Kong as a teenager and interned in mainland China, and said he is still interested in traveling to China, but not anytime soon.

Some American students remain committed to studying in China, said Andrew Mertha, director of the China Global Research Center at SAIS. “There are people who are interested in China for China’s sake,” he said. “I don’t think those numbers are affected at all.”

About 40 U.S. students are now studying at the Hopkins-Nanjing center in the eastern Chinese city, and the number is expected to go up in the fall to approach the pre-pandemic level of 50-60 students, said Adam Webb, the center’s American co-director.

Among them is Chris Hankin, 28, who said he believed time in China was irreplaceable because he could interact with ordinary people and travel to places outside the radar of international media. “As the relationship becomes more intense, it’s important to have that color, to have that granularity,” said Hankin, a master’s student of international relations with a focus on energy and the environment.

Jonathan Zhang, a Chinese American studying at the prestigious Schwarzman Scholars program at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said it was more important than ever to be in China at a time of tense relations. “It’s really hard to talk about China without being in China,” he said. “I think it’s truly a shame that so many people have never stepped foot in China.”

Zhang was met with concerns when he deferred an offer at a consulting firm to go Beijing. “They’re like, ‘oh, be safe,’ or like, ‘what do you mean, you’re going back to China?’” Zhang said. “I feel like the (Chinese) government is trying with an earnest effort, but I feel like a lot of this trust has been broken.”

Gadsden said U.S. universities need to do more to nudge students to consider China. “We need to be more intentional about creating the opportunities and about encouraging students to do this deeper work on China, because it’s going to be interesting for them, and it’s going to be valuable for the U.S.-China relationship and for the world,” she said.

In China, Jia Qingguo, a professor of international relations and a national political adviser, has suggested Beijing clarify its laws involving foreign nationals, introduce a separate system for political reviews of foreign students’ dissertations, and make it easier for foreign graduates to find internships and jobs in Chinese companies.

Meanwhile, China is hosting American high school students under a plan Xi unveiled in November to welcome 50,000 in the next five years.

In January, a group of 24 students from Iowa’s Muscatine High School became the first to travel to China. The all-expenses-paid, nine-day trip took them to the Beijing Zoo, Great Wall, Palace Museum, the Yu Garden and Shanghai Museum.

Sienna Stonking, one of the Muscatine students, now wants to return to China to study.

“If I had the opportunity, I would love to go to college in China,” she told China’s state broadcaster CGTN. “Honestly, I love it there.”

Kang reported from Beijing.

Copyright © 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, written or redistributed.

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Was Today’s Earthquake Connected to the Solar Eclipse?

The tidal forces on Earth grow as the sun, moon and Earth begin to align, a configuration that can lead to a solar eclipse. But the results of several studies of the relationship between earthquakes and tides are inconclusive, a geophysicist said.

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By Katrina Miller

• April 5, 2024

With a total solar eclipse set to pass through the United States on Monday, it is easy to imagine a linkage between unusual events in the heavens and on Earth. But geoscientists were cautious about making such a connection.

Earthquakes happen along fault lines, or cracks between two blocks of rock on Earth’s crust. Tides stretch and squish the land on Earth just as they contribute to waves in the ocean, and those tidal forces grow as the sun, moon and Earth begin to align — a configuration that sometimes creates a solar eclipse.

One theory is that this may introduce additional stress along Earth’s fault lines.

“We do know that the relative position of the Earth and the moon and the sun does exert tidal forces,” said William Frank, a geophysicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “And we know that changes the stress that can be on a fault that can host an earthquake.”

But the results of several studies of the relationship between earthquakes and tides are inconclusive, according to Seth Stein, a geophysicist at Northwestern University. “If there’s any effect, it would be incredibly weak,” he said.

Earthquakes are driven most often by the motion between two tectonic plates making up Earth’s crust — either when two plates slide along each other in opposite directions, or when one slides under the other.

Both types of movements introduce strain at the junction, which often gets relieved by an earthquake.

But at the moment, it’s difficult to say that plate motion was responsible for the quake that shook the Northeast Friday morning.

“It’s not quite as obvious, because there is no tectonic plate boundary that is active,” Dr. Frank said.

Still, he added, fault lines from past activity are everywhere on Earth’s crust.

“Some of these faults can still be storing stress and be closure to failure,” he said. “And it can just require a little bit more to push it over the edge.”

Katrina Miller is a science reporting fellow for The Times. She recently earned her Ph.D. in particle physics from the University of Chicago. More about Katrina Miller

‘I’m scared too’: Dramatic bodycam video shows flipped cars, rescue attempts following Slidell tornado

SLIDELL, La. (WVUE) - In the aftermath of an EF-2 tornado wreaking havoc in Slidell, new body cam footage released by the Slidell Police Department offers a raw glimpse into the chaos left behind.

The video captures officers responding to Pontchartrain Drive, navigating through downed tree limbs and assessing damages to area buildings in the wake of the destructive tornado.

Officer Rodney West locates a woman trapped inside of an overturned vehicle.

“I’m scared too,” he says to her while waiting for tools to rescue her.

He calls his wife to ensure she is okay, then searches for more victims.

Near Old Spanish Trail, the community rallies together Friday in the face of adversity, reminiscent of the unity seen after hurricanes and similar disasters.

“This is typical Slidell. I’m proud to be a part of it,” remarked one volunteer. “I’m going to go home and make a pot of red beans and feed the linemen.”

Meanwhile, just a few blocks away at Fritchie Park, volunteers dedicated their day to providing essential supplies to tornado victims.

The recovery effort is in full swing across the city, with a collective effort from organizations like Lowe’s, the American Red Cross, United Way, and local church members.

“The best part of it, if there is a good part of it, is people coming together and just supporting each other and nobody does that better than Southeast Louisiana,” said Lowe’s store manager John Lemaster. “They’ve been through it, this community been through it, and they’ll go through it again and they’ll come back strong every time.”

Mayor Greg Cromer echoed Lemaster’s sentiment, praising the coordinated efforts of various departments and volunteers.

“We got a good team. Fire department, PD, public works, hospital. We all come together and these types of events and I don’t wanna say it’s really good to see something work well, but it’s good to see it worked like it did. You just wish you don’t have to put it in place,” Cromer said.

Amidst the cleanup efforts, volunteers will continue to provide hot meals and distribute supplies at the community center, offering aid to those affected by the tornado as they work towards rebuilding their lives.

APRIL 10 WEATHER OUTBREAK

• Extensive damage and widespread flooding reported as storms pummel southeast Louisiana
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Wednesday’s severe weather outbreak spawned at least 11 tornadoes across Louisiana, including two of EF-2 strength . The tornado that struck Slidell was estimated to have peak winds at 120 mph, was 350 yards wide and traveled 9.3 miles on the ground. The second EF-2 tornado hit the Lake Charles area with 115 mph winds.

April 10th, 2024 will go down in history as an awful day for southern LA and coastal MS. Several tornadoes (two EF-2s and four EF-1s), damaging wind, and extreme flooding have left many in clean-up mode for weeks… and battling with insurance. #lawx #mswx #nola @FOX8NOLA pic.twitter.com/NiIHaDXqC5 — Amber Wheeler (@AmberWheelerWX) April 12, 2024

The Louisiana Department of Health confirmed a 60-year-old woman died when a tree and power line fell on her house in Pineville.

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OJ Simpson dies after prostate cancer diagnosis: What to know about PSA screening

Suggestions are not uniform and need to be discussed with a healthcare provider.

O.J. Simpson died at 76 following a diagnosis of prostate cancer, which is the second-leading cause of cancer deaths according to the American Cancer Association .

In May 2023, Simpson posted a video on X , then known as Twitter, revealing that he had recently "caught cancer" and "had to do the whole chemo thing." He added, "It looks like I beat it." Simpson didn't specify the nature of the cancer at the time.

In February, it was revealed Simpson was getting chemo for prostate cancer treatment.

Like many cancers, early detection is key. Prostate cancer can be screened for with a blood test called Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA). The goal of screening is to catch cancer before symptoms present and can be done during medical check-ups.

The good news is for most, prostate cancer does not have to be life-threatening.

MORE: OJ Simpson, former football star acquitted of murder, dies at 76

"A man who gets prostate cancer even if they have high risk, they are usually treatable," said Dr. Vipul Patel, Medical Director of the Global Robotics Institute, Executive Director of the Society for Robotic Surgery, and the Founder of the International Prostate Cancer Foundation.

But the PSA screening test isn't perfect, and right now, screening is not recommended for everyone. The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), which helps establish standards for screening tests, says the decision to screen people aged 55-69 for prostate cancer should be a choice between the individual and their healthcare provider.

"PSA is not the perfect test to diagnose prostate cancer, but it is the simplest test we actually have available...PSA was picking up a lot of men who had prostate cancer, but it was also picking up patients who didn't have prostate cancer," said Patel.

After a high PSA is detected, a doctor may call for a biopsy. However, there are risks of complications such as infection or bleeding. He notes that hopefully as screening technology improves with tools like MRI and other blood tests, the unnecessary harm will also decrease.

When making the decision of when to screen someone for prostate cancer, clinicians also consider the risk of someone developing prostate cancer. Some groups, including Black Americans, have a higher risk. Black men and women are more likely to die from prostate, uterine and breast cancer compared to other races, according to recent data from the American Cancer Society.

Some providers choose to pursue testing as early as 40 in those of high risk, which include those with "any family history of prostate cancer, specifically, if there's a first degree relative, so a father or brother, that has a history or a diagnosis of prostate cancer…or men that are of African American descent," said Dr. Seixas-Mikelus who specializes in Urologic Oncology and Robotic Surgery at The Urology Clinic in Sumter, South Carolina.

MORE: Video Staying fit could help reduce risk of prostate cancer, study shows

Notably, the USPSTF does not recommend screening over the age of 70. "As men age, prostates get larger, and in general PSAs can rise just based on age," said Patel.

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Additionally, while screening is designed to detect and treat aggressive prostate cancer, not all identified prostate cancer will require treatment, especially as they age.

"Prostate cancer, in the majority of the instances, is often a very slow growing, potentially non-lethal cancer. And so as men get older, the value of screening becomes less and less…what is the risk of dying of prostate cancer versus what is the risk from some of these other medical problems?" said Dr. Manish Vira, System Chief of Urology at Northwell Health Cancer Institute.

However, recommendations for screening do not apply if a patient develops symptoms.

"If a patient comes in with urinary symptoms, blood in the urine, pelvic pain... Now, we're not talking about screening, we're talking about diagnostic evaluation," said Vira.

The USPSTF is currently reviewing the guidelines for prostate cancer screening and recommendations may change in the next few years.

"We care deeply about ensuring that men have the best information available to them….science and medicine are constantly advancing, so we are committed to updating our recommendations on a regular basis. We began updating our recommendation on screening for prostate cancer in late 2023 and are working to move it through our rigorous recommendation development process efficiently," said Dr. John Wong, Vice-Chair of the Task Force.

Dr. Camry Kelly, DO is a member of the ABC Medical News Unit and is Chief Resident at Mayo Clinic Family Medicine Residency Program in Rochester, Minnesota.

Dr. Ashley Yoo, MD is a member of the ABC Medical News Unit and an Internal Medicine Resident at George Washington University Hospital in Washington, D.C.

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Newswire by Storyful’s April 2024 Highlights

From severe global weather and wildlife sightings to dark smoke and civil unrest, this Storyful roundup has it all!

Interested in gaining full access to our library of verified content, updated on a 24/7 basis? Contact [email protected] today. 

Dark Smoke Billows From Fire at Boston Construction Site

Smoke darkened the sky after a fire broke out at a construction site near Boston’s South Station on April 9.

According to local news outlet WFXT , the job site has since been shut down for a safety audit. No injuries were reported .

Supercell Looms Over Austin Amid Severe Thunderstorms

A large supercell was spotted over Austin, Texas, as a line of severe storms moved through the region. Storyful footage captures the ominous storm cloud hovering in the sky as lightning flashes.

Race on to Save Entangled Whale Spotted Off California Coast

A gray whale tangled in netting connected to two buoys would “likely die,” according to the NOAA, unless crews were able to free it.

Pub Door Opens ‘Directly Into the Sea’ as High Tide Floods Cornwall Town

The owner of a Cornish pub found the door of her premises opening “directly into the sea” recently as she went to check her flood board.

Owner Ellie Gray recorded the moment she checked that the board she set across the door was stopping the water from coming in, with video showing a tumultuous flow running down the main street.

“We opened the door to see how high the tide was … It was higher and rougher than we thought,” she said.

Storm Sends Huge Waves Over Seawall in Brittany

High tides combined with Storm Pierrick brought some spectacular conditions to France’s Brittany region, with video capturing massive waves crashing over a seawall on April 9.

The impressive visuals were recorded by Alexis Saubois, who told Storyful that although high tides are “always exceptional” in Saint-Malo, Storm Pierrick added to what he called a “Dantesque” spectacle.

Several Family Members of Hamas Leader Reported Killed in Gaza

At least five family members of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh were killed in an Israeli airstrike while traveling for Eid al-Fitr west of Gaza City on April 10, according to Gaza’s government media office .

The car was carrying several of Haniyeh’s sons and grandchildren, Al Jazeera reported , and published video it said shows the grisly scene of the strike. Haniyeh confirmed the deaths of three of his sons, the outlet reported.

Video showing a burnt-out car was captured by local journalist Nedal Ahmed, who said it shows the aftermath of the strike.

Severe Storms Cause Flooding on Louisiana Roads

Newswire by Storyful’s April 2024 Highlights https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7rQe2k0voU Heavy rain triggered flash flooding in southern Louisiana. Video taken by Lilliam Terrell shows vehicles navigating a flooded Highway 190 in Covington.

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I looked at the eclipse and now my eyes hurt. What are the symptoms of eclipse blindness?

Eclipse enthusiasts flocked to Austin and other cities Monday to see the total solar eclipse and, hopefully, brought the proper eye protection with them.

Looking at the sun during an eclipse without safe viewing glasses can cause permanent eye damage, called eclipse blindness. If after witnessing Monday's phenomenon you experience blurry or distorted vision , you may have suffered eye damage.

Here's what to know about eclipse blindness and what symptoms to look for.

Looking at the sun during an eclipse without protection can permanently damage your eyes

Even a short glance at the sun without proper protection can cause temporary or permanent damage to your eyes. Sunglasses aren't enough, you need ISO-certified solar eclipse glasses , which block about 1,000 times more sunlight.

How do I know if I damaged my eyes during the April eclipse? What are the symptoms of eclipse blindness?

The retinas of your eyes have no nerve endings so even if they are damaged, you may not feel any pain. But according to the American Academy of Ophthalmology , if you experience any of these symptoms a few hours or even days after the eclipse, you should go see your ophthalmologist.

• Blurry vision
• Headache and/or eye pain
• Vision loss or a black spot at the center of a patient’s sight in one or both eyes
• Increased sensitivity to light
• Distorted vision (a straight line may look bent or curvy)
• Changes in the way you see color, known as "dyschromatopsia"

How long can I look at the sun if I'm using eclipse glasses?

According to the American Astronomical Society (AAS), while some glasses and viewers include warnings about looking through them at the sun for more than 3 minutes at a time, as long as your glasses are compliant with the ISO 12312-2 safety standard and are undamaged, "you may look at the uneclipsed or partially eclipsed Sun through them for as long as you wish."

What does looking at the sun do to your eyes?

Ever started a fire by using a magnifying glass to focus sunlight onto a point?

The lens of your eye does essentially the same thing when it focuses the light you see onto the retinas at the back of your eye, the  American Academy of Ophthalmology  explained. The retina is the light-detecting part of your eye that transmits those signals to the brain. Direct, intense light can burn a hole in them or destroy retinal cells almost immediately.

Normally it hurts to look at the sun and humans naturally squint or look away. Even a few seconds can be too much. But during an eclipse, the visible sunlight is reduced and it becomes possible to look directly at it without discomfort for longer periods of time. You may not even know you've damaged your eyes until the next day.

The result is solar retinopathy or retinal burns. It can happen from looking at the sun or at too-bright reflections of sunlight off snow or water. The most common cause of solar retinopathy is viewing a solar eclipse, also called eclipse blindness.

It's rare, but it can be permanent. The  2017 eclipse , which passed from Oregon to South Carolina, is thought to have caused about 100 cases, according to the  American Astronomical Society , out of the estimated 150 million people who witnessed it. But since solar retinopathy doesn't cause complete blindness, many people with minor cases may have never reported it or even known they had it.

How long will damage from looking at an eclipse last?

Researchers have found that some patients "may see symptoms ease over time," according to David Hutton for Ophthalmology Times. The cones in the retina are resilient and resist damage, experts say.

In a 1976 study, some patients saw their symptoms clear over time and researchers found that some cases saw an "excellent recovery" in the first three months.

However, others have suffered permanent damage resulting in impaired vision in the form of a small blind spot in one or both eyes and distortion.

Is damage from looking at a solar eclipse treatable?

No. There is no treatment.

You should have an ophthalmologist scan your eyes to see how much damage has been done and they can monitor them over the next few months to chart any recovery, but the only thing you can do is wait and hope for it to go away.

And avoid looking at the sun.

After the eclipse, we'll have posters and framed prints from Statesman photojournalists available at  usatodaystore.com.

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Case Study – Ganges/Brahmaputra River Basin

Flooding is a significant problem in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basin. They cause large scale problems in the low lying country of Bangladesh. There are both human and natural causes of flooding in this area.

Human Causes

Deforestation – Population increase in Nepal means there is a greater demand for food, fuel and building materials. As a result, deforestation has increased significantly. This reduces interception and increases run-off. This leads to soil erosion . River channels fill with soil, the capacity of the River Ganges and Brahmaputra is reduced and flooding occurs.

Natural Causes

• Monsoon Rain
• Melting Snow
• Tectonic Activity – The Indian Plate is moving towards the Eurasian Plate. The land where they meet (Himalayas) is getting higher and steeper every year ( fold mountains ). As a result, the soil becomes loose and is susceptible to erosion. This causes more soil and silt in rivers. This leads to flooding in Bangladesh.

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