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Masters Thesis Proposal Sustainable Tourism to Emerging Destinations

Related Papers

Proceedings of the International Conference on Tourism (ICOT 2013). Trends, Impacts and Policies on Sustainable Tourism Development

Valentina Della Corte , Alessandra Iavazzi

The aim of the paper is to deeply understand the different strategic choices a destination management organization (DMO) can make with a managerial approach in order to ensure the development of the destination by systematizing local resources according to a long run vision. Once the “sustainable tourism” is identified, it is necessary to understand which are the main strategic initiatives a DMO can put in place taking into account the stakeholders directly or indirectly involved in tourism activities, according to a responsible tourism approach. In order to identify common procedures and successful policies, the paper uses a comparative case study analysis in order to describe several existent best practices with some possible generalizations. The findings of this research highlight strategic governance choices, as well as the role of public and private actors, in facilitating destinations sustainable development.

Diane Lee , Mary Hollick

Disclaimer The technical reports present data and its analysis, meta-studies and conceptual studies, and are considered to be of value to industry, government or other researchers. Unlike the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre's (STCRC's) Monograph series, these reports have not been subjected to an external peer review process. As such, the scientific accuracy and merit of the research reported here is the responsibility of the authors, who should be contacted for clarification of any content. Author contact details are at the back of this report. The views and opinions of the authors expressed in the reports or by the authors if you contact them do not necessarily state or reflect those of the STCRC. While all reasonable efforts have been made to gather the most current and appropriate information, the STCRC does not give any warranty as to the correctness, completeness or suitability of the information, and disclaims all responsibility for and shall in no eve...

Information Technology and Tourism

Peter Wiltshier

Mazilu Mirela

Abstract: Destination, or the terminus of tourists' holiday, is a complex link between geography (with all the resources-human and natural-it offers you) and tourism (with all the activities they can undertake and services they can consume during the stay). The services forming the tourist product/products offered/given at a destination, and which must be differentiated from those offered by competitors, are the ones “forming” the brand.

Ana Lucia Magalhaes

Sustainability, as defined by the Brundtland Commission, which mentions the needs of present and future generations, is a concept that transcends concern with the environment, though this consideration remains important. Sustainability also relates to culture, way of living and economy. Applied to tourist destinations, sustainability offers guidance of great clarity. Tourism brings significant impacts, physical, economic and cultural, with important positive and negative aspects. A study of the subject reveals that the guidelines for sustainable tourism are exactly the guidelines for economic develop- ment and healthy living - non sustainable tourist destinations actually tend to decline and even perish. A qualitative research was conducted in a tourist destination in Brazil, typi- cal in several respects. Such destination has developed after the publication of the Brund- tland report - did not inherit certain prejudicial attitudes. The results show that the major players involved are not aware of all the challenges posed to a sustainable development, but this can be changed for the better with relative ease and highly positive consequences.

Destination, or the terminus of tourists' holidays, is a complex element linking geography (with all the resources–anthropic and natural–made available to tourists) and tourism (with all the activities that they can carry out and services that they can consume during their stay). The complexity of the destination is that it represents a product and more products at the same time. Services forming the tourist product/products offered in a destination, and that must be differentiated from those offered by competitors, are brand “formative”.

Academica Turistica

Ksenija Vodeb

sharmila sethu

This paper aims to develop a preliminary conceptual model for the tourism sector; using sustainable development principles and models. An account of the Malaysian sectoral industry in tourism using the Sustainable Model will be examined and by using these details to understand the strategic opportunity that would help draw an eco-tourism framework from a strategic perspective. In this research, it will be pertinent to examine the value of protecting the Malaysian eco-tourism and how sectoral influence can converge into a framework of sustainability. The use of a conceptual model will allow us to justify how eco-tourism could be a flourishing business advantage to the tourism businesses here in Malaysia. The paper will examine how the adoption of a strategic framework based on two dimensions; namely strategic opportunities and tourism development. To be examined to ensure eco-tourism could be made a competitive advantage to the tourism sector in Malaysia. During the course of investigation several issues need to be examined, for instance, is if there is enough taking place for us as a business entity to protect our fragile environment. Using the conceptual framework; are we able to sustain the environment from an economic perspective? It is the economic growth, commencing through the Industrial era that had given rise to the issues of sustainability.

Katarzyna Klimek

Competition between tourism destinations on national, regional and local levels continues to intensify due to the pressure of globalization (Friedman, 2006). Accordingly, Destination Management Organizations (DMOs) have to constantly reevaluate and re-engineer existing tourism offers to reposition themselves in a highly competitive tourism market. At the same time, tourism development pressures destination areas through increased resource consumption and, land fragmentation while policy measures to promote more sustainable tourism are progressing only slowly due to local resistance. Therefore, destinations are one of the most difficult entities to manage because of diverse, often conflicting interests of different stakeholder groups (Carmin et al., 2003). Consequently, finding the right balance between the economic development of tourism destinations, the conservation of their resources and the well-being of the local population has become a challenging task for many DMOs (Notarstefano, 2008). The aim of this paper is to present the results of exploratory research conducted in 2011 in seven European countries among 72 managers of Destination Management Organizations (DMOs). The research objective was to evaluate the DMOs’ efforts and their role in the set-up and implementation of sustainable tourism principles in the management of tourist destinations by means of a quantitative and qualitative analysis. Keywords: Destination marketing & strategy planning, destination management organization (DMO), sustainable tourism development, long-term competitiveness, new demand of XXI century.

Managing Sustainability in the Hospitality and Tourism Industry

Parul Munjal

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Tourism and Hospitality Dissertation Topics

Published by Grace Graffin at January 10th, 2023 , Revised On April 24, 2024

Introduction

As a tourism student, you will be required to study the basics of tourism, hospitality, and event management. Some important issues surrounding tourism include but are not limited to medicine, finance, culture, geography, and more.

We understand that choosing the right dissertation topic can be a bit overwhelming for you. Therefore, our writers have provided a comprehensive list of topics for the tourism dissertation. These topics are recent, relevant, and exploratory enough for you to conduct a comprehensive research study.

We can even customise topics according to your needs. So, go through our list of dissertation topics, choose the one that interests you, and let us know if you would like any help from our writers.

Check our dissertation example to get an idea of how to structure your dissertation .

You can review step by step guide on how to write your dissertation here.

Tourism Research Topics for 2024

Investigating how the tourism industry has taken green and sustainable measures- a case study of uk.

Research Aim: This study will investigate the various aspects of the UK tourism industry geared towards making green and sustainable measures for environmental benefits. It will also look into the consumer’s perspective towards green tourism and its positive and negative impacts on the tourism industry and the tourists. It also helps you better understand the concept of a green environment and its influence on the tourism industry.

Environmental Management Systems and their Implementation in the UK- A Systematic Review.

Research Aim: This study will explore the quality of environmental management systems, environmental performance, improvements, and implementation in the UK. We will focus on different companies with high environmental impacts and how they have improved the environment and the use of environmental management systems (EMS). This study will also look into how it has changed or influenced the hospitality industry.

Investigating the impact of Social Media Recommendations on Hotel Booking in the UK.

Research Aim: Social media is a part of every aspect of our daily life. This research will investigate the influence of social media on tourism and specifically on choosing a hotel; it will also help you evaluate if consumers perceive social media-based recommendations differently than more traditional sources of internet-based marketing. Qualitative research will be used in this, followed by thematic analysis to find the role of social media in recommendations and influencing consumers’ searches. This will help us better understand how VR makes decisions and hotel bookings.

Assessing the Impact of Virtual Reality on Tourism.

Research Aim: Virtual reality (VR) is an emerging technology in tourism. This study will find the impact of virtual reality on the tourism industry. It will also investigate consumer behaviour towards it. We will better understand how VR has affected the tourism industry and significantly influenced the results. TAM research model will be developed to describe the nature of the 3D virtual world. It will also cover some psychological aspects to understand the consumer perspective.

Role of Social Media Marketing in deciding a Travel Destination- A Systematic Review.

Research Aim: This study investigates the role of social media marketing in deciding a travel destination. This study aims to find and understand how social media can achieve marketing objectives. Taking a quantitative approach, we will find the role of social media marketing and its effect on making travel choices through interviews and surveys. It will further explore the tourist’s perception, expectations, and experiences.

Investigating the Negative Impact of Travel Bans

Research Aim: This study explores the negative effects of travel bans on social, economic, cultural, and public health aspects. The study aims to analyse the repercussions of travel restrictions to inform policymaking. It will further investigate ways to avoid adverse consequences while promoting global mobility and cooperation.

An Exploration of the Hospitality Industry Wages

Research Aim: To investigate the wage structures in the hospitality industry. This study explores factors influencing disparities and evaluates their implications. Insights will be provided on wage fairness, workplace satisfaction, gender discrimination, and industry competitiveness. It will also cover policies and practices to improve employee well-being and organisational performance.

Effects of Covid-19 on Tourism and Hospitality Dissertation Topics

Topic 1: tourism after coronavirus pandemic - way forward for tourism and hospitality industry in the uk or any other country of your choice.

Research Aim: Tourism is a reason for most of the human mobility in the modern world. According to the World Tourism Organisation (2020), international tourism has indicated continuous growth for the tenth consecutive year, reporting 1.5 billion international tourist arrivals in 2019 and an estimated 1.8 billion international tourist arrivals by 2030 )people are forecasted to be. This particular research will focus on the effects of the Covid-19 outbreak on the tourism and hospitality industry in the United Kingdom or any other country of your choice.

Topic 2: Investigating the Long Term Effects of Prolonged and New Travel Restrictions on the UK Tourism Industry

Research Aim: Britain will require anyone entering the country to self-quarantine for two weeks, and other European countries are pondering similar measures, but the prospects of prolonged and even new travel restrictions are destroying what hopes the continent’s airlines and tourist industry have been harbouring of at least a partial coronavirus rebound. Can the tourism sector of the UK overcome these challenges?

Topic 3: Coronavirus: Dubai Tourism Insists Emirate's Hotel Sector is Healthy, Rejects Bloomberg Report but Is It Really the Case?

Research Aim: Dubai’s Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (Dubai Tourism) has denied a Bloomberg report about the emirate’s hospitality businesses adversely affected by the coronavirus pandemic. This research will employ primary research methodology to gather data from the key stakeholders of the Emirates hotel industry to assess whether or not the ongoing COVID-19 crisis is causing panic and financial damage to the hotel industry.

Topic 4: Will Easing the Travel Restrictions Benefit the UK Tourism Sector in the Short Term?

Research Aim: Many European countries, including the UK, are easing lockdown measures, including tourist destinations preparing for the summer. Cafes and restaurants in London and other cities hardest hit by the virus in the UK have opened two weeks behind the rest of the country. However, with most travellers preferring to stay home in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, how effective are these measures going to be?

Topic 5: Coronavirus outbreak: Caribbean Tourism Struggles as Visitors Stay Home

Research Aim: In the Caribbean, the government plans to require all visitors to undergo rapid Covid-19 testing upon entry. They hope provisions such as virus tests for all industry workers and socially distanced resort dining will make people feel comfortable travelling. This research study will explore whether the measures taken by the Caribbean government will actually encourage the visitors to leave the comfort of their home and travel in the midst of the Covid-19 Crisis.

Topic 2: Advances in Tourism and Hospitality Post-pandemic

Research Aim: This research aims to assess the advances in Tourism and Hospitality post-pandemic

Topic 3: Impacts of Social Distancing on Tourism Managements

Research Aim: This research aims to study the impacts of social distancing on tourism managements

Topic 4: Advances in Hotel Management Post-pandemic

Research Aim: This research aims to assess advances in Hotel management post-pandemic

Topic 5: The Linguistic Roots of the Word “Hospitality” across Different Languages

Research Aim: This research investigates the linguistic roots of the word hospitality across different languages and the semantic shifts over time.

Topic 6: The Relationship Between the Host and the Guest

Research Aim: This research explores the relationship between the host and the guest and how both need to act under laws and regulations.

Tourism and Hospitality Dissertation Topics for 2023

Topic 1: factors impacting destination selection for medical tourism.

Research Aim: Medical tourism is a growing trend. An increasing number of people travel to another country, seeking medical treatment which is expensive or unavailable on their own. Various factors impact the destination selection process for medical treatment purposes. The destination can be local or international. With limited evidence on the factors that impact destination selection for medical tourism, there is a need for a comprehensive study exploring these factors in detail.

Topic 2: Impact of Low budget Airline Services on Boosting International Tourism in Europe: A Case Study of Ryanair.

Research Aim: With increasing costs of air travelling, the demand for low-budget airline services is on the rise. Ryanair is one of the leading low-budget airline services based in the UK. Its cheap air tickets attract many regular travellers. Given this, the main aim of this research will be to explore whether or not low-budget airlines are actually helping to increase international tourism in Europe or not. This research will be conducted based on quantitative data which will be collected from a sample of Ryanair international tourism travellers.

Topic 3: Eco-friendly Practices and Their Effect on Hotel Selection Decision: A Case Study of UK Hospitality Industry.

Research Aim: Various technologies can be implemented to achieve eco-friendliness, such as; internet of things, automation technology, bamboo industrialisation, and sustainable building construction. On the other hand, eco-friendly practices include; water and energy conservation, renewable energy use, waste recycling and management, alternative plastic products, and more. Many hotels in the UK install solar panels and automated systems, which generate renewable energy and ensure complete automation for lights and water. It is worth evaluating how eco-friendly technologies and practices affect the hotel selection decision of guests in the UK hospitality industry.

Topic 4: How Economic Conditions of a Country Impact its Local Tourism: Identifying the Economic Factors Influencing the Tourism Sector.

Research Aim: Economic factors have a great impact on tourism. When a country is economically strong, it spends a great deal on tourism development. On the other hand, tourism could be adversely affected if a country is struggling with its finances. This research aims to investigate and critically analyse the economic factors which tend to affect the tourism sector of a country. The study will also weigh the economic upsides and downsides of these factors concerning local tourism.

Topic 5: Assessing the Impact of Social Media Platforms on Tourism Destination Selection.

Research Aim: These days, social media websites play a tremendous role for tourists in destination selection. The experiences and reviews that people share on online social platforms have a huge impact on making or breaking the future of any tourist destination. This research will analyze the role of different social media platforms in choosing tourism destinations among tourists. This research will also shed light on the rationale and factors people rely on social media to select their tourism destination.

Topic 6: Assessing the Impact of Government Rules, Regulations, and Policies on Tourism Development: A Case Study of Developing Countries.

Research Aim: The tourism sector of any country is greatly looked after by governmental and regulatory bodies. This research will analyze the role played by such bodies from the perspective of policymaking and regulation implementation. The study will also explore how the impact of policymaking and government regulations in developed countries might be different from that of developing countries.

Topic 7: Analysing the Impact of Natural Hazaresearch will measure the customer satisfaction of British lesbians after they have undergone gender reassignment at the Yanhee International Hospital in Bangkok.

Research Aim: Natural hazards can have a disastrous effect on the tourism industry of any country. The UK is one of the countries where the tourism industry has experienced huge success. Thus, this research will be carried out to analyze the impact of such hazards on the UK’s tourism sector.

Topic 8: Assessing the Factors and Preferences Impacting Tourist's Decisions to Travel to a Dark Tourism Site.

Research Aim: As a result of a shift in preferences of tourists and an urge to explore and learn, dark tourism has gained immense popularity and success in recent times. This research will explore the factors and reasons why tourists choose dark places as their tourism destination.

Topic 9: The Impact of Travel Bloggers and vloggers on the Tourism Industry.

Research Aim: Travel bloggers and vloggers are an important part of the tourism industry now. These people travel the world, document their experiences through their writing or videos, and influence people. Tourists throughout the world now depend on their reviews and choose their travel destinations accordingly. This research will aim to explore how these influencers have completely changed the tourism industry.

Educational Tourism Dissertation Topics

Tourism has gained tremendous popularity among academicians and researchers in recent times. Educational tourism primarily takes into consideration technical competencies and new knowledge gained outside the classroom environment.

Educational tourism brings to light the idea of travelling to learn about the cultures of other nations. Exchange student programmes are perhaps the most commonly employed educational tourism strategy, allowing students to learn about the culture of the host nation through research work and travel. Possible areas of research in this field of tourism for your dissertation are provided below;

Topic 1: Educational Tourism Programmes and the Popularity of Host Nations

Research Aim: This research will discuss the educational exchange programmes in detail and will also assess how educational tourism can add to the appeal of the host nations for prospective tourists.

Topic 2: Factors Affecting the Decision of British Students to Join International Student Exchange Programmes.

Research Aim: Even though student exchange programmes are popular throughout the world, there are certain countries where they are practised the most. This research will study one such country, the UK, concerning the factors that encourage British students to join international exchange programmes.

Topic 3: Factors Contributing Towards the Success of Work & Study Programmes in the UK

Research Aim: This research will analyse the factors that contribute towards the success of study programmes in the UK, i.e. benefits of studying in the UK and the attractiveness of the UK as a place to live and study.

Topic 4: To Analyse the Satisfaction of International Students Enrolled in Student Exchange Programmes in the UK

Research Aim: This research will cover an important topic, i.e., measure the satisfaction of international students enrolled in exchange programs in the UK – the same topic can be used for any other country such as the USA or Canada.

Topic 5: To Investigate Potential Marketing and Communication Tools to Promote “any country” as the Best Place to Pursue Higher Education.

Research Aim: This research will investigate and conclude the most successful marketing and communication tools that are used to promote exchange programmes in a particular country. The topic can be customised according to the country of your choice.

Topic 6: What are the factors Influencing British Students’ Decision to Join Academic Year Exchange Programme in Japan?

Research Aim: Japan is one of the most popular destinations when it comes to student exchange programmes. This research will assess the factors that influence a British student’s decision to go to Japan to pursue education.

Topic 7: To Examine the Popularity of Student Exchange Programmes Offered by Chinese-speaking Countries.

Research Aim: This research will explore the reasons for the popularity of student exchange programmes in countries where Chinese is the official language such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, etc.

Topic 8: To Investigate the Attitude and Perception of British Students toward Summer Camps.

Research Aim: Summer camps are extremely popular in the west. This research will explore the perceptions of British students towards summer camps and what motivates them to attend them.

Topic 9: Factors Affecting the Decision of University Students to Pursue a Placement Programme in the US?

Research Aim: This research will aim to understand the rationale of university students’ decisions to pursue placement programmes in the US,

Topic 10: To Examine the Satisfaction of University Students Returning from Cultural Exchange Programmes in the US.

Research Aim: This research will aim to understand the satisfaction of university students who are on their way back from exchange programmes in the US.

Medical Tourism Dissertation Topics

Medical tourism is a new area of study in the tourism industry. The gap in the prices of medical facilities available in developing and developed countries is significant, propelling many patients to travel to far destinations to benefit from economic, medical services.

Similarly, many financially well-off patients decide to have medical treatment in foreign countries with advanced and established medical systems that provide state-of-the-art medical facilities unavailable in their home countries.

Although there may be insufficient secondary data to analyse this tourism sub-topic, researching this area will prove to be interesting. You can choose your medical tourism dissertation topics from this list.

Topic 1: Investigating the Reasons Why British Citizens Travel to Different Countries for their Dental Procedures

Research Aim: This research will identify and discuss in detail the reasons why British citizens travel to different countries for dental treatment.

Topic 2: The efficacy of marketing and communication tools employed by Thai plastic surgery and extreme makeover service providers – An investigation into the attitude and perception of British travellers.

Research Aim: A large number of British citizens travel to Thailand for cosmetic and plastic surgeries. This research will aim to understand the attitudes and perceptions of British travellers who opt for these surgeries in a foreign country. The research will also assess the marketing and communication tools employed by Thai medical service providers.

Topic 3: To Identify and Discuss Critical Marketing Strategies to Promote a Weight Loss Centre in the UK.

Research Aim: This research will talk about the marketing strategies that are undertaken in the UK to promote weight loss centres.

Topic 4: Measuring Customer satisfaction of British Lesbians After Having Sex Reassignment at Yanhee International Hospital, Bangkok

Research Aim: This research will measure the customer satisfaction of British lesbians after they have undergone gender reassignment at the Yanhee International Hospital in Bangkok.

Topic 5: To Examine the Factors Influencing the Decisions of British Women to Buy Body Contour Tour Packages in East Asia.

Research Aim: This study will analyze the factors that influence the decision-making of British women when burying body contour tour packages in East Asia.

Topic 6: To Investigate the Extent to Which Swiss Weight Control Tour Packages Have Influenced Women in the UK.

Research Aim: This research will focus on the decision-making detriments of British Women who opt to purchase weight control tour packages in Switzerland.

Topic 7: How Young British Females Perceive Facial Lifting package Tours in East Asia?

Research Aim: This study will analyze how young British females perceive facial lifting package tours in East Asia.

Topic 8: To Understand and Discuss the Factors Affecting Buying Decisions to Benefit from Extreme Makeover Tour Packages in Eastern Europe.

Research Aim: This research will critically explore the factors that influence the buying decision of customers who purchase extreme makeover packages from Eastern Europe.

Topic 9: How Attractive are the Plastic Surgery Makeover Services to Female British Customers – A Qualitative Study

Research Aim: This research will understand and analyze the attractiveness of plastic surgery makeover services that influence British females to purchase them. The research will be descriptive in nature.

Topic 10: How Homosexual Men Choose Medical Tour Packages for Sex Reassignment.

Research Aim: This study will investigate gender reassignment tour packages that interest homosexual men and the factors influencing their decision-making process.

Tourism Management Dissertation Topics

Tourism management is perhaps the most interesting area of the tourism industry. It mainly involves travelling for the purpose of leisure and recreation. People travelling to other countries and outside their usual environment with the intent of leisure can be classified as tourists.

It should be noted that the phenomenon of tourism has grown tremendously in recent years, thanks to the impact of globalisation. There are many countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Maldives, and Fiji, whose largest source of income is tourism. In these countries, tourism generates huge revenue for the government and also provides employment opportunities for the working class as well as businesses.

The suggestions below can help you to narrow your research for your tourism dissertation.

Topic 1: How British Tourists Perceive Chinese World Heritage Tour – A Qualitative Study

Research Aim: This research will focus on how British tourists perceive Chinese heritage and what compels them to visit China.

Topic 2: Exploring the Factors that Make London the Most Popular Destination for Christmas Shopping

Research Aim: This research will analyse and explore the various factors that promote London as one of the most attractive destinations for Christmas shopping.

Topic 3: Investigating the Underlying Factors that British Citizens Consider when Choosing a Destination for Their Winter Holidays.

Research Aim: This research will analyse the various factors that British citizens consider and evaluate when choosing a destination for their winter vacations.

Topic 4: An Analysis of Factors Affecting Employees’ Motivation in Luxury Hotels of Dubai.

Research Aim: This research will study the factors influencing employee motivation in luxury and five-star hotels in Dubai. The study will make use of secondary data and primary research to establish the exact factors that motivate employees to work for luxury hotels in Dubai.

Topic 5: How the Tourism Industry of Thailand Responded to the Tsunami.

Research Aim: This study will dive into the past to establish how the Thai tourism industry responded to Tsunami.

Visit our topics database to view 100s of dissertation topics in your research area.

Topic 6: Factors Influencing British Customers’ Decisions of Purchasing Egypt Tour Packages.

Research Aim: This research will explore the factors that British citizens consider when planning their holiday to Egypt.

Topic 7: Attitude and Perception of British Tourists Toward Thailand as a Winter Holiday Destination

Research Aim: This study will research why the British choose Thailand as their winter holiday destination.

Topic 8: The Increasing Popularity of Cruise Travel in South Africa Among British Tourists

Research Aim: This research will consider the reasons why South African cruise is extremely popular amongst British tourists.

Topic 9: To Investigate the Efficacy of Integrated Marketing Communication Tools to Restore the Image of Amsterdam as the Best Tourist Destination in Europe

Research Aim: This research will explore the marketing and communication tools utilized to market Amsterdam as the best tourism destination in Europe.

Topic 10: Factors Influencing British Customers’ Decision to Choose a Particular Destination During the Summer/winter Holiday

Research Aim: This research will discuss all the factors that influence British citizens to choose a destination for their summer or winter holidays. This topic can be customized according to a country of your choosing.

Hospitality Dissertation Topics

Hospitality industry consists of casinos, resorts, restaurants, hotels, catering as well as other businesses that serve the tourists. At its core hospitality can be defined as the relationship between a guest and the hotel.

Other aspects of hospitality include but are not limited to liberality, friendliness, warm welcome, entertainment, goodwill, and reception. Modern-day businesses pride themselves on their acts of hospitality. Thus, it is an extremely interesting sub-topic to base your dissertation on. Some topics in this area of tourism are suggested below.

Topic 1: Examining How Popular Travel Agents Such as eBrooker and Opodo are Perceived by British Tourists

Research Aim: This research will evaluate some of the best and most popular travel agents such as Opodo and eBookers and how they assist British tourists with their destination planning.

Topic 2: Identifying the Factors that Influence Leisure Hotel Buying Decisions of British Customers

Research Aim: This research will identify the factors that influence British customers’ decision to opt for luxury hotels.

Topic 3: Identifying Features of a leisure hotel that attract British honeymoon couples

Research Aim: This research will identify features of a luxury hotel that attract British couples looking for a honeymoon location.

Topic 4: Investigating Hospitality Practices of Popular Leisure Hotels in Dubai

Research Aim: This study will investigate hospitality purchases of attractive luxury hotels in Dubai.

Topic 5: What are the Prime Factors Influencing Restaurant Selection Decisions of Young British Couples?

Research Aim: This research will explore the factors that influence British couples to select restaurants for their time out.

Topic 6: Investigating and Reviewing Strategies Employed by Hotel Restaurants and Pubs in London to Keep Their Employees Motivated

Research Aim: This research will study an important aspect of the tourism industry, i.e., how hotel restaurants and pubs in London keep their employees motivated.

Topic 7: Exploring the Relationship Between Culture and Leisure Hotel Buying Decisions in London.

Research Aim: This research will investigate the relationship between how customers in London choose a luxury hotel based on their culture.

Topic 8: Creating Brand Sales and Recognition Using Integrated Marketing Communication Tools.

Research Aim: This research will explore how brand sales and recognition are built using various marketing and communication tools.

Topic 9: Understanding the Relationship Between Customers’ Buying Decisions and Leisure Hotel Hospitality Features within the Context of Overseas Holidays

Research Aim: This research will explore the relationship between customers’ decision to choose a luxury hotel while visiting different countries.

Topic 10: The Impact of Hospitality Companies’ Brand Image on Tourists’ Buying Decisions.

Research Aim: This research will first talk about different hospitality companies and how their brand image impacts tourists’ buying decisions.

Black Tourism Dissertation Topics

Black tourism, also known as dark tourism and grief tourism, involves travelling to historical sites/places associated with death, casualties, and suffering.

Dark or black tourist sites such as battlefields, monuments, castles, Tsunami sites, and Ground Zero are man-made or natural. They are found commonly in Scotland, South Asia, China, and Eastern Europe.

Dark tourism may not be the ideal choice for many students. However, it is an exciting topic to explore. Possible research topics under this field of tourism are listed below:

Topic 1: How Local Communities Can Benefit Commercially and Socially from Tours to Death/Casualty Sites – A Qualitative Study

Research Aim: This research will explore the various benefits that local communities can experience from touring death or casualty sites.

Topic 2: Attitude and Perception of Tourists Towards Taj Mahal in India

Research Aim: Taj Mahal can be categorised as a dark tourism site because many people consider it a mausoleum. This research will discuss the attitude and perceptions of tourists when visiting the Taj Mahal.

Topic 3: To Investigate and Identify the Factors Influencing Tourists’ Decisions to Visit gGrief Sites in the UK

Research Aim: This research will explore the factors that influence the decisions of tourists to visit grief sites in the UK.

Topic 4: Is Mercat Tour in Scotland a Grief Tourism Site for Potential Tourists?

Research Aim: Mercat Tour in Scotland is considered a ghost site. This study will explore what makes this site a dark tourism destination.

Topic 5: Developing a Highly Effective Marketing Strategy to Promote London Dungeon Among the Tourists

Research Aim: This research will understand the various marketing strategies undertaken to promote the London Dungeon amongst tourists.

Topic 6: What are the Primary Factors Influencing British Tourists’ Decision to Choose Grief Sites?

Research Aim: This research will understand the various factors that influence British tourists’ decision to select a dark tourism site.

Topic 7: Developing a Marketing Strategy to Promote Beaumaris Prison in Wales as Another Black Tourism Site in Britain

Research Aim: This research will focus on developing a successful marketing strategy that will help promote Beaumaris Prison in Wales as a black tourism site in Britain.

Topic 8: How are Man-made Grief tourism Sites are Perceived by British Tourists?

Research Aim: This research will discover how British tourists perceive man-made dark tourism destinations.

Comparing the Man-made Black Tourism Sites with the Natural Disaster Grief Sites from the Perspective of Tourists

Research Aim: This research will compare manmade and natural dark tourism destinations with a focus on tourists’ perceptions.

Topic 10: Do the Local Communities Economically Benefit from Tourists Visiting Dark Tourism Sites?

Research Aim: This research will explore whether or not local communities are impacted in any way when dark tourist sites in their locality are visited.

Sustainability and Tourism Dissertation Topics

At its core, this field of tourism primarily focuses on the way tourists can live harmoniously with the planet earth. Ecotourist sites or sustainable tourist sites are those that promote fauna and flora and cultural heritage. Another objective of eco-tourism is to provide social and economic opportunities to local communities. Some interesting topics worth exploring, in this area, are suggested below:

Topic 1: Investigating the Impact of the Internet on the Growth of Eco-tourism in the UK

Research Aim: This research will study the impact of the internet on the rising eco-tourism trend in the UK.

Topic 2: Factors Affecting British Customers’ Decision of Choosing an Eco-tourism

Research Aim: This research will study the reason why British tourists opt for an eco-tourism site as compared to traditional destinations.

Topic 3: Establishing and Discussing Strategies to Promote Swansea as the Best Eco-tourist Spot in the UK

Research Aim: This research will discuss the various ways through which Swansea can be promoted as the best eco-tourist spot in the UK.

Topic 4: Analysing the Role of Price in the Selection of Eco-tourism Destinations

Research Aim: This research will understand the various factors that influence the tourists’ decision to choose an eco-friendly site for their next holiday destination.

Topic 5: Examining the Use of Integrated Marketing Communication Tools to Promote Eco-tourism in Great Britain

Research Aim: This research will study and analyze the different ways through which integrated marketing communication tools should be used to promote eco-tourism in the UK.

Topic 6: Comparing Developing World Eco-tourism Sites Against Western Eco-tourism Sites

Research Aim: This study will compare developing eco-tourism sites and developed or Western eco-tourism sites. The study will conclude which sites tourists prefer and what factors lead them to their decision.

Topic 7: Does Eco-tourism Develop Social and Economic Opportunities for Local Communities?

Research Aim: This research will explore whether or not eco-tourism helps develop social and economic opportunities in the local communities. If it does, the study will explore those factors as well.

Topic 8: Exploring the Factors Affecting the Buying Decisions of Customers Interested in Eco-tourism Sites

Research Aim: This research will identify and discuss the various factors that affect the buying decision of customers who are interested in eco-tourism sites. These factors will then be explored in detail in this study.

Topic 9: Analysis of the Potential of Edinburgh as an Eco-tourism Site in the UK

Research Aim: This research will compare manmade and natural dark tourism destinations and will also include tourists’ perceptions.

Topic 10: Assessing the Impact of Grass Root level Education in Promoting Sustainable Tourism in Europe – A Review of the Literature

Research Aim: This research will discuss the impact of grass root level education to promote sustainable tourism in Europe. The study will be based on the qualitative research method.

Important Notes:

As a tourism and hospitality student looking to get good grades, it is essential to develop new ideas and experiment with existing tourism and hospitality theories – i.e., to add value and interest to your research topic.

The field of tourism and hospitality is vast and interrelated with many other academic disciplines like civil engineering, construction, law, engineering management, healthcare, mental health, artificial intelligence, physiotherapy, sociology, management, marketing, and nursing . That is why it is imperative to create a project management dissertation topic that is particular and sound and actually solves a practical problem that may be rampant in the field.

We can’t stress how important it is to develop a logical research topic; it is the basis of your entire research. There are several significant downfalls to getting your topic wrong: your supervisor may not be interested in working on it, the topic has no academic creditability, the research may not make logical sense, and there is a possibility that the study is not viable.

This impacts your time and efforts in writing your dissertation as you may end up in a cycle of rejection at the very initial stage of the dissertation. That is why we recommend reviewing existing research to develop a topic, taking advice from your supervisor, and even asking for help in this particular stage of your dissertation.

While developing a research topic, keeping our advice in mind will allow you to pick one of the best tourism and hospitality dissertation topics that fulfil your requirement of writing a research paper and add to the body of knowledge.

Therefore, it is recommended that when finalizing your dissertation topic, you read recently published literature to identify gaps in the research that you may help fill.

Remember- dissertation topics need to be unique, solve an identified problem, be logical, and be practically implemented. Please take a look at some of our sample tourism and hospitality dissertation topics to get an idea for your dissertation.

How to Structure Your Tourism and Hospitality Dissertation

A well-structured dissertation can help students to achieve a high overall academic grade.

A Title Page
Acknowledgements
Declaration
Abstract: A summary of the research completed
Table of Contents
Introduction : This chapter includes the project rationale, research background, key research aims and objectives, and the research problems to be addressed. An outline of the structure of a dissertation can also be added to this chapter.
Literature Review: This chapter presents relevant theories and frameworks by analyzing published and unpublished literature available on the chosen research topic in light of the research questions to be addressed. The purpose is to highlight and discuss the relative weaknesses and strengths of the selected research area while identifying any research gaps. A breakdown of the topic and key terms can have a positive impact on your dissertation and your tutor.
Methodology: The data collection and analysis methods and techniques employed by the researcher are presented in the Methodology chapter, which usually includes research design, research philosophy, research limitations, code of conduct, ethical consideration, data collection methods, and data analysis strategy .
Findings and Analysis: The findings of the research are analysed in detail under the Findings and Analysis chapter. All key findings/results are outlined in this chapter without interpreting the data or drawing any conclusions. It can be useful to include graphs , charts, and tables in this chapter to identify meaningful trends and relationships.
Discussion and Conclusion: The researcher presents his interpretation of results in this chapter and states whether the research hypothesis has been verified or not. An essential aspect of this section is to establish the link between the results and evidence from the literature. Recommendations with regard to the implications of the findings and directions for the future may also be provided. Finally, a summary of the overall research, along with final judgments, opinions, and comments, must be included in the form of suggestions for improvement.
References: Make sure to complete this in accordance with your University’s requirements
Bibliography
Appendices: Any additional information, diagrams, graphs that were used to complete the dissertation but not part of the dissertation should be included in the Appendices chapter. Essentially, the purpose is to expand the information/data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How to find dissertation topics about tourism and hospitality.

To find tourism and hospitality dissertation topics:

Examine industry trends and challenges.
Explore cultural, environmental, or tech impacts.
Research niche areas like ecotourism or event management.
Analyse customer behaviour and satisfaction.
Consider sustainable practices.
Select a topic aligning with your passion and career aspirations.

What is the best research topic for tourism?

There is no one best topic, but here is a trending topic. “The Impact of Virtual Reality Technology on Tourist Experience and Destination Promotion: A Comparative Analysis.” This research topic explores how VR technology affects tourist perceptions, engagement, and decision-making and its implications for destination marketing strategies, comparing traditional methods with VR-based approaches in tourism promotion.

Travel & Tourism Bachelor Master Thesis Topics

When I did my master’s degree in economics, I strongly considered writing about something related to travel and tourism. That part of the world has always interested me. I’ve always been a traveler – and will hopefully always be one. In the process of finding out what to write for my own thesis, I spent probably 100 hours investigating different bachelor/master topics that in some way can be related to the travel industry. Personally, I went on writing about how Scandinavian companies could benefit from taking their manufacturing process home from SouthEast Asia. But that left me with a lot of travel/tourism-related topics that I want to share with you – for free. Let’s start.

Categories of travel/tourism thesis topics, eco-tourism: traveling and its environmental impact, tourism marketing: what inspires people to travel, other tourist marketing thesis ideas, economic development, politics: how can people in power determine where tourists go, digital nomads: earn money online & travel anywhere, domestic traveling: why do people travel in their own country, the sharing economy in tourism, did you find something interesting, other “topic thesis articles”.

I’ve divided this article into the following different categories:

These are the main topics that I will let you know more about in this article.

If you are a student looking for thesis topics related to tourism/travel, I will strongly recommend you to keep reading.

I’ll provide you with unique, high-quality, and very specific thesis suggestions that you can steal (for free). And if you’re not satisfied with the ones I have suggested, feel free to drop a question in the comment section.

I usually answer everyone in between 0-24 hours.

Enough off-topic. You came here for the thesis topics. Let’s get to it.

First of all, I’ve written some articles about this that might help you to understand the concept better:

Ecotourism – How can I travel more environmentally friendly?
What are the positive environmental impacts of tourism?

Now that you’ve read through those articles (…or have you? 😉 ), I’ll go to some specific thesis topics that I considered writing about.

Specific topic suggestion: What will happen with the new wave of Indian and Chinese travelers?

Many environmentalists are seriously worried about the economic growth in high-population countries like China and India. The reason for that is clear:

The more money people get between their hands, the more likely are they to get on an airplane and fly.

As you might already know, airplanes have been proven to leave a HUGE environmental impact. So should we be worried about the two graphs seen below…?

China GDP growth

Number of international travelers from China between 2001-2015

The answer is: yes. We should be worried. But how worried should we be?

That’s for you to find out. 🙂

PS! If you’re interested in this topic, I would strongly suggest that you read this article published in traveldailynews.com . The author explains how there is a correlation between economic growth in one region and the willingness to travel abroad from the people living in that region/country.

Topic 1: Social media

Social media is now a larger part of the marketing budget for almost every travel company. This is one of the topics that I was researching the most, and therefore I got loads of specific suggestions:

Analyze how different airlines use different strategies to get in touch with and interact with potential customers on Facebook.

Pictures above : Instagram pages of KLM and American Airlines. They have a very different strategy on Instagram in regards to the pictures they upload. Why do they have that? Who succeeds the most? How frequently do they update posts? Do these airlines also comment on other posts? There are loads of things to investigate on such a topic!

I would love to contact a big hotel chain and ask how they try to reach their audience through social media.
How do airlines and hotels work with “user-generated content”? Many backpacker hostels give away free breakfast if someone post a picture of themselves on Instagram “tagging” the official hotel account.

A company called amara-marketing.com has published a case study on how hotels use social media. In this article , they feature the most successful hotel chains.

Might be worth checking out.

Topic 2: Travel “influencers”

There are (loads of) people out there that have a huge follower base on Instagram/Facebook. Many of them are paid by hotels and airlines to promote their products and services.

Is that a good or a bad thing?

Does it make us travel somewhere just to get disappointed?

I mean…it’s quite a big difference between social media and real life sometimes.

You could investigate topics like:

Can we trust “travel influencer marketing” anymore? Or is it all paid for and fake?
What do these travel influencers get paid every time? How big of a business model is it for “influencers”?
Is this type of influencer marketing more or less efficient compared to the more traditional tourism marketing?

Research tips: A great way to do research for this type of thesis would be to get in touch with both a travel influencer AND a hotel that uses this type of marketing to reach new customers. Try to find some good research questions that can discover problems or difficulties in having influencers as a part of your marketing strategy.

Ask a group of people where they got inspired when they researched their last holiday. Compare a group of 50 year-olds to a group of 18-year-olds. Are there any differences in how they do “travel research”?
Contact a company that produces and sells physical travel magazines. Are sales declining due to the massive amount of free information online?
Despite the hype, AirBNB has not totally taken over the accommodation market. According to BusinessInsider , loads of travelers do still prefer to live in hotels. Why? Do most people know about the advantages of using AirBNB?

Instead of giving in-depth thoughts about these sub-topics, I’ll go straight to some research questions that I considered using:

What happened to the economies of tourist agencies during the Covid-19 pandemic?
How much of Thailands’ economy is based on tourism? What happens when tourists disappear?
How much money goes out of Norway every summer due to the fact that 1 million people travel abroad? Does tourism overall have a negative impact on Norway’s’ economy?
Which nationalities spend the most money when they’re traveling? According to Statista.com , Chinese tourists spend a staggering ~250 billion (with a B) dollars abroad every year. 🙂

Hot tips: In order to do proper research, I would contact someone to make some interviews when you researched this. These are some examples of people to contact:

A group of Chinese people to ask why they spend so much on luxury clothing when they’re abroad
A hotel in Thailand to ask how they survived the Covid-19 crisis
Some business owner that went bankrupt due to the lack of tourists in 2020
And a lot more…

Ooooh, this is a topic that I know quite a lot about.

As a previous expat in China, I met a lot of people that had traveled to North Korea to “experience something crazy”.

My first reaction was:

“How can you allow yourself to put money into that country? Do you find that to be OK?”

Surprisingly, a lot of people had no problem supporting North Korea. That’s why this is an extremely interesting topic to discover more.

Tourism Politics thesis topic ideas

I’ll just continue on my previously mentioned example. Contact a group of people that have been to North Korea. Why did they go? Did they have any problems supporting a regime that spends money on nuclear weapons instead of food for their inhabitants?
What happens to tourism in a country when they experience a radical and negative shift in power? For instance, you could look at how the 2009 terrorist attacks in Cairo or the Egyptian revolution had an impact on tourism in Northern Africa around 2008-2012.
Certain countries have super strict visa policies. Gather a group of people and ask them if they refuse to visit certain countries because of expensive visas – or long visa processes with a lot of paperwork. That would be super interesting to find out. 🙂

Even though it might be a small topic to write about, I have yet to see someone writing a good bachelor or master thesis about digital nomads .

Most people are not familiar with the concept so I’ll explain it very quick.

Certain people ( like me …) have an online income. That means we are not dependent on a physical destination to do our work. All we need is access to the Internet.

As you might already have figured out; that gives a lot of freedom. And a lot of young people use online income as an excuse to travel to low-cost countries and live their life.

Even though this might seem like a niche topic, there are many things you could use as your research question:

Why do people decide to become digital nomads? High living cost back home? Are they going on an adventure? Do they want to meet people that work with similar online projects as themselves?
How does the future look for digital nomads? Many shared co-working spaces pop up. In the future, do companies in Stockholm allow their employees to work from a beach in Bali?
Which destinations seem to be the most popular? And why? What do these places have in common?

Tips : If you find a good research question, I would strongly recommend you to interview several digital nomads. That could easily be done by finding them on groups on Facebook. Or, even better, fly down to a typical “digital nomad destination” and meet them face-to-face. 🙂

For many of us, the world “travel” is connected with somewhere exotic.

A place where people speak another language that we cannot understand. Long, white beaches and crystal clear water. Affordable drinks in different colors.

But a lot of people also prefer to travel domestically. This might sound like a boring topic to choose, but there are loads of variations that might make it interesting:

Do people prefer to buy a cabin or spend that money on luxurious travels abroad?
How many people travel by car when they travel domestically. And why?
Are people from larger countries (The US/Russia) more likely to travel domestically compared to people from smaller countries (Denmark/Austria)?

Examine how the rise of the sharing economy has impacted the tourism industry.

Possible perspectives:

How has the sharing economy impacted the traditional hotel and transportation industries?
What are the benefits and drawbacks of the sharing economy for tourists?
How do sharing economy platforms impact local communities and neighborhoods?
What are the regulatory challenges facing the sharing economy in tourism?
How can traditional tourism companies adapt to the sharing economy?

Sources for your research:

The Sharing Economy UK – This organization publishes research on the sharing economy, including its impact on tourism.
“ The Sharing Economy: The End of Employment and the Rise of Crowd-Based Capitalism ” by J. Botsman and R. Rogers
“The Sharing Economy and Tourism: A Review of Research” by J. Scott and S. Gössling
“The Sharing Economy: A Path to Sustainable Consumption” by J.A. Fernández-Caldas, L.G. Lorenzo-Romero and P.A. García-Palomares

I hope you did.

If you didn’t, feel free to add a comment in the comment section below. I’ve been through the exact same struggle that you are currently in – and I’m more than willing to give you my two cents if you message me. 🙂

International Business Thesis Topics
Environmental/Sustainability Thesis Topics

About The Author

Environmentally Friendly Shopping: the Complete Guide

Ecotourism – How Can I Travel More Eco-Friendly

Ecotourism – how can I travel more environmentally friendly?

9 thoughts on “travel & tourism bachelor master thesis topics”.

Hi Amund, I’m doing my MBA currently. I’m onto my Master’s thesis now…trying to find a good topic to propose. I’m thinking of researching how travel agencies in Malaysia survived during the pandemic by taking two agencies as a case study; one is a medium-sized agency while the other is a well-known agency that has its own hotel. I will be conducting interviews and giving out questionnaires to their regular customers to gauge their loyalty to these agencies. Would appreciate it if you could suggest any points I should include? Thank you in advance.

Hi MP, unfortunately, Amund isn’t longer part of the website team. I’d love to help you, however, I am not an expert for this topic.

Hi Amund, nice topics and website 🙂 I´m about to write my master thesis, my idea was chinese outgoing tourism to Balkans – I´m a bosnian living in China (push and pull factors, tourism flow/routes, china ready destinations) but my supervisor says it´s too descriptive. Do you have any hints? 🙂

I am from Malaysia and some places here offer eagle feeding boat tours. I would like to write a master thesis about the topic but my supervisor is a bit worried that I would produce a biology thesis instead of a tourism thesis XD Have you got any idea what should my research objectives or questions be? Thanks =)

Hi Yin! Yes, absolutely. I would actually try to conduct some proper research on the whole industry myself.

1) Conduct interviews with the eage feeding boat tour operators. Why do they offer these services? Do they think it’s the best way to portratit Malaysia? 2) If possible: find some people who have actually been on these eagle feeding trips. Do they think it is of value to Malaysia? Or are they just interested in birds?

Those are the research methods I would use. However, coming up with a research question on such a specific topic might be difficult as I don’t know anything about the boat trips myself.

We are a couple of Danish guys who might think that the digital nomad thesis topic sounds like something we would love to explore in the new year. So we will pack our bags and leave for a “digital nomad city”.

As you seem to know a thing or two about the community: do you have one place in mind where you think we should go? Just a destination where you think it’s easy to get people to talk to you.

Hej Kasper & Julian. Great choice – I’m sure you will write a great thesis about that. Super interesting topic that deserves much more attention compared to what it currently gets.

Yep, I got a couple of options (that are far away from Denmark…):

1. Chiang Mai, Thailand. 2. Bali, Indonesia.

Have fun!! 😉

Thanks Amund, I will start my bachelor thesis in Marketing Tourism in January and this article was helpful..

Do you think my supervisor will accept all these thesis proposals you wrote in this article?

Hi Jermaine.

Unfortunately, I can’t promise anything. It’s up to your supervisor to decide whether or not the thesis topic should be approved.

That being said: most of these topics are quite relevant and not very controversial. You should bring a couple of them to your supervisor and ask whether or not he/she will be happy with your choice.

Good luck on your exam!

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Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry

Marinko Škare.

a Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Faculty of Economics and Tourism “Dr. Mijo Mirković”, Croatia

Domingo Riberio Soriano

b University of Valencia, Spain

Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń

c Faculty of Economics, Finance and Management, University of Szczecin, Poland

Our paper is among the first to measure the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. Using panel structural vector auto-regression (PSVAR) (Pedroni, 2013) on data from 1995 to 2019 in 185 countries and system dynamic modeling (real-time data parameters connected to COVID-19), we estimate the impact of the pandemic crisis on the tourism industry worldwide. Past pandemic crises operated mostly through idiosyncratic shocks' channels, exposing domestic tourism sectors to large adverse shocks. Once domestic shocks perished (zero infection cases), inbound arrivals revived immediately. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, is different; and recovery of the tourism industry worldwide will take more time than the average expected recovery period of 10 months. Private and public policy support must be coordinated to assure capacity building and operational sustainability of the travel tourism sector during 2020–2021. COVID-19 proves that pandemic outbreaks have a much larger destructive impact on the travel and tourism industry than previous studies indicate. Tourism managers must carefully assess the effects of epidemics on business and develop new risk management methods to deal with the crisis. Furthermore, during 2020–2021, private and public policy support must be coordinated to sustain pre-COVID-19 operational levels of the tourism and travel sector.

1. Introduction

From the start of the COVID-19 crisis in China, the impact of the pandemic on the travel tourism industry was significantly underestimated. Even now, policymakers and tourism practitioners do not have a full understanding of the scenarios and effects of the crisis, which will have an unprecedented impact on the tourism industry. Empirical studies on the impact of pandemic outbreaks on the tourism industry are widely missing in the literature. Our paper is among the first to measure the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the short and long term, both worldwide and on a geographical level. The study attempts to explore what is expected to be a negative impact on the world and the geographical travel and tourism industry. It also plans to investigate the nature of the impact. Understanding the level of potential impact and the global channels of transmission will help us predict the extent of current and future epidemic effects on the travel and tourism industry. It will help policymakers and practitioners design policies aimed at capacity building and operational sustainability of the travel tourism sector during 2020–2021 as a policy response to the COVID-19 crisis. Health care quality innovation will play an important role in fighting this pandemic crisis ( Zsifkovits et al., 2016 ).

The latest research report of the world travel and tourism council (WTTC) lists up to 75 million workers at immediate job risk as a result of COVID-19. Research reveals a potential Travel Tourism GDP loss in 2020 of up to US$ 2.1 trillion. WTTC also estimates the daily loss of a shocking one million jobs in the travel tourism sector for the widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Pine and McKercher (2004) researched the impact of the SARS epidemic in 2002 on China's Guandong Province. Their study results show that the impact was negative, substantial, and significant. Mao et al. (2010) studied recovery patterns in Taiwan after the SARS outbreak using a catastrophe cusp model (for details see Sewell et al., 1977 ; Woodcock and Davis, 1978 ; Zeeman, 1976 ) and discovered two factors necessary for recovery from catastrophe to a normal state. The post-recovery period depends on the level of hysteresis and institutional efficiency in facing critical events. Kuo et al. (2008) found that epidemic crises affect tourism demand differently. Results of their study on SARS (2001–2004) and the widespread avian flu (2002–2006) show that SARS had an important impact on tourism demand in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. The spread of avian flu, however, did not have an important negative impact on the tourism demand in Asia despite the high fatality rate. Preceding studies on pandemic impacts must be extended, however, to account for COVID-19′s new patterns and characteristics. Although in the previous widespread cases (SARS, 2002; H1N1, 2009) inbound tourist arrivals recovered almost immediately after the pandemic alerts were lifted, this will not be the case for COVID-19, and we must take that into account the new empirical models on pandemic impacts. SARS affected Asian stock market integration ( Chen et al., 2018 ) and increased hygienic measures in a limited fashion, but the COVID-19 pandemic seems to demand stricter measures ( Kostoff, 2011 ). Information and communication technologies (ICTs) will play a crucial role in fighting COVID-19 ( Gaspar et al., 2019 ).

To test the impact of COVID-19 on the travel tourism industry worldwide, we set up a dynamic model using an annual data set from 1995 to 2019. The model included 185 countries over 16 different regions and world in total. From the estimated PSVAR models, we take parameters on the empirical link between TCGD, TCEMP, SPEND, GOV, INV, and IPANDEMIC shock. Estimated parameters reflect the empirical link of past pandemic episodes from 1980 to 2019 but say little about the empirical link of the above variables with COVID-19. Demographic patterns in Europe and the rest of the world make population more vulnerable to future epidemic outbreaks ( Skirbekk et al., 2015 ).

To summarize our study results, the impact of COVID-19 on the travel tourism industry will be incomparable to the consequence of the previous pandemic episodes. Depending on the dynamics of future pandemics (from April 2020), the best-case scenario (scenario 1) shows that the travel tourism industry worldwide will drop on average from −2.93 percentage points to −7.82 in the total GDP contribution. Jobs in the travel tourism industry will decrease by −2.44 percentage points to −6.55. The estimated lost inbound tourist spending ranges from −25.0 percentage points to −35.0. Total capital investments that fall due to pandemics varies from −25.0 percentage points to −31.0. The impact is different across regions and in scenarios 1–3, which we further explain in the study.

The paper is structured as follows. After the introduction, Section 2 presents a summary of epidemic outbreaks worldwide since 1980. Section 3 describes the data sample (countries and regions in the sample) and the period used in the modeling process. Section 4 explains the methodological framework of PSVAR with a summary of the results. In Section 5 , we develop a system dynamics model that includes the empirical relationship obtained from PSVAR, extended for the new parameters (pattern and dynamic) that resulted from the COVID-19 crisis. We discuss the empirical study results in the Section 6 . Section 7 offers concluding remarks on the empirical study results and directions for further research.

2. Epidemic outbreak episodes and tourism worldwide trends since 1980

Several distinct factors determine the impact of an epidemic outbreak on tourism demand. Geographical distance to ground zero (infection epicenter) and infectious power are two of the most distinct. Other modern determinants are media attention (Internet revolution) and associated hysteria. Present worldwide socioeconomic conditions and terrorism, together with conditions of world conflict, impact tourism demand. Oil prices and environmental conditions also exhibit a substantial effect on the number of international tourists travelers. Furthermore, episodes of epidemic outbreaks have coincided with economic turmoil, both nationally and internationally, in the last 53 years (see Table 1 ). Because of tourism's seasonality character and vulnerability to exogenous factors, measuring the impact of an individual factor is a complicated task. This study aims to measure the impact of virus outbreaks on the tourism demand globally since 1980 as a prerequisite to measuring the COVID-19 impact. Several virus outbreaks globally affected worldwide tourism trends and the world economy after World War II (WWII). Table 1 shows the infections and deaths of significant virus outbreaks in the last 53 years.

Infections and deaths of significant virus outbreaks in the last 53 years.

In the past 50 years, the world has experienced several virus outbreaks with different levels of infections and mortality rates. Fig. 1 plots the virus outbreak episodes to the total number of tourist arrivals by world regions from 1950 to 2018. As expected, the impact varies by world regions depending on the source and distance to the virus outbreak source (ground zero countries).

International tourist arrivals by world regions 1950–2018.

Fig. 1 shows the that different epidemic outbreaks produce different worldwide impacts. Virus epidemic diseases, like SARS (2002) and H1N1(2009), have a large and significant impact on worldwide tourism trends and economic opportunity costs. Epidemic outbreaks with less infectious power (R naught - R 0 <1) have a lower impact on tourism trends and associated economic losses. Fig. 1 illustrates that the drop in tourist arrivals due to epidemic outbreaks varies across world regions. Table 2 displays registered (direct) drops in the number of tourist arrivals by world regions according to data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)—a United Nations specialized agency—database.

Tourist arrivals and spending in a time of epidemic outbreaks by world regions, 1980–2019.

Table 2 shows that the total lost tourist arrivals worldwide from 1980 to 2019 amounted to 57 million (M) during the epidemic outbreaks. Lost tourism spending worldwide in times of epidemic outbreaks during this same period reached 95 US$ billion (bn). In relative terms, total lost tourism spending in a time of epidemic crisis was 0.23% of the world GDP (to the average world GDP value from 1980 to 2018). Epidemic outbreaks vary significantly between the type of disease outbreak and across world regions. Africa did not experience a significant impact on the tourism demand during the epidemic crisis; total losses were 2 bn US$ in tourism spent from 1980 to 2019.

The SARS epidemic crisis of 2002 and H1N1 (2009) caused a striking drop in tourist arrivals by −10 million in the Americas region; in tourism spending, the loss was −21 bn US$ in the that region. The Asiatic and Pacific regions experienced a significant drop in tourist arrivals during the bird flu epidemic (1997), SARS (2002), and H1N1(2009). Lost arrivals during the bird flu crisis in that region was −1 million, and lost spending amounted to −2 bn US$ . The decline in the tourist arrivals in the region at the time of the SARS (2002) outbreaks was −12 million with a related −2 bn US$ in lost revenue. During the H1N1 (2009) crisis, the region experienced −3 million tourist arrivals decline and −6 bn US$ lost tourism spending. The European region was not significantly hit by most of the outbreaks and epidemics from 1980 to 2019 (for the distance to the virus originating region). However, in the H1N1 epidemics (2009), there was a decline of −26 million tourist arrivals and a −61 bn US$ total tourism spending loss (amounting to 0.5% of the Europe GDP at the time). In H1N1 epidemic episode, however, Europe was affected strikingly with a total decline in tourist arrivals and spending loss that surpassed the economic impact for all other world regions over the 1980–2019 period.

The Middle East region suffered travel disruptions during the H1N1 (2009) epidemic crisis, causing a −3 million decline in tourist arrivals. Tourist spending, however, did not register a decline due to a rise in the receipts per arrival. The bird flu (2013) crisis faced a −2 million decline in tourist arrivals and −1 bn US$ in international visitor spending.

We associate epidemic outbreaks with significant opportunity costs in tourism demand. Although epidemic outbreaks significantly shape and influence the tourism industry, multiple causality issues (e.g., outbreaks followed by environmental and security issues or political and economic crises) arise when it comes to measuring the opportunity costs of epidemic outbreaks. To address this issue, we use structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) models to estimate the direct and opportunity costs of COVID-19 on the tourism industry (and economy) worldwide.

3. Data and facts on pandemics' impact on travel and tourism

The travel and tourism industry in the time of services-led growth trends has become increasingly important worldwide since 1990. From 1995, the travel and tourism industry's direct contribution to the world GDP increased from 9.9% in 1995 to 10.3% in 2019. A significant impact of the travel and tourism industry is also visible on employment levels. The total contribution to world employment in 2019 was 10.4%. The SARS epidemic in 2003 and the financial crisis of 2008 had a significant negative impact on world and regional travel and tourism industries.

We use annual data for 185 countries grouped in 16 world regions: Africa, the Americas, Asia Pacific, Caribbean, Central Asia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East, Northeast Asia, North Africa, Northern America, Oceania, other Europe, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. All data are in real prices (CPI US$ 2000=100 index), adjusted for the impact of inflation. We utilize two main databases: World travel and tourism council (WTTC) data gateway (wttc.org/datagateway) and UNWTO (unwto.org/data). All data are in annual frequencies from 1995 to 2019. Data series (variables) we use for modeling:

• TCGDP = total (indirect and induced impact) of travel and tourism contribution to the national/regional GDP (in real US$ bn, WTTC 2020 )
• TCEMP = total (indirect and induced impact) travel and tourism contribution to national/regional employment (in 000 of jobs, WTTC 2020 )
• SPEND = total spending in the domestic economy by foreign visitors (in real US$ bn, WTTC 2020 ),
• ARRIVALS = total tourist arrivals (in 000, UNWTO 2020 )
• GOV = individual government expenditures on travel and tourism (in real US$ bn, WTTC 2020 )
• INV = Investment - capital investment both private and public (in real US$ bn, WTTC 2020 )
• PANDEMIC = dichotomous (dummy) variable, PANDEMIC = 1 when no pandemic outbreaks exist and PANDEMIC = 0 when pandemic outbreaks are present
• IPANDEMIC = measures the impact of pandemic outbreaks SARS (2002), H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), and H7N9 bird flu (2013)

To correctly capture the pandemic impact, we use the interaction variable (model) with ARRIVALS as a continuous variable (000 of jobs) and PANDEMIC as a dichotomous variable (dummy variable 0,1).

4. Measuring pandemics' impact on the tourism industry using PSVAR

Our goal is to analyze the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on world tourism dynamics. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to measure the impact of the current COVID-19 outbreak on tourism worldwide. To estimate the impact of COVID-19′s ongoing outbreak, we model the COVID-19 shocks using time series data for past coronavirus outbreaks; for SARS (2002), H1N1 (2009), and Ebola (2004); and for the past epidemic outbreaks of Hendra (1994), H5N1 bird flu (1997), Nipah (1998), MERS (2012), and H7N9 bird flu (2013). However, COVID-19 is a new type of virus, and it brings much uncertainty connected to the speed of spread, infectious power, mortality rate, and future dynamics of the virus. Therefore, we use the current state of knowledge on the COVID-19 reproduction number (R0) ( Kucharski et al., 2020 ) to calibrate our models for the SARS (2002) and H1N1(2009) variance. To study the impact of COVID-19 on tourism worldwide, we use the heterogeneous PSVAR model as developed by Pedroni (2013) . Using the PSVAR model—Ewiews code provided by Luvsannyam (2018) and Góes (2016) —we estimated how the COVID-19 shocks on tourism (arrivals, spending) propagated across world regions. We have a strong heterogeneous sample, so using PSVAR enabled us to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 shock on tourism, depending on the following factors: region-specific socioeconomic conditions, vulnerability to external shocks, health system stability, environmental conditions, tourism sector stability, and competitiveness.

Following Pedroni (2013) , we decomposed the impact of the structural shock (COVID-19) into common shock (effects of COVID-19 outbreak originating in any other region in the sample and propagating to region-specific tourism industry) and idiosyncratic shock.

Idiosyncratic shocks show the impact of COVID-19 originating in a member-specific region on the tourism industry in the same region. As in Biljanovska et al. (2017) and Pedroni (2013) , we refer to the measured COVID-19 effects on the tourism industry as a common component or spillover (common shock), and to an idiosyncratic component as country-specific (idiosyncratic shock).

We use the following estimation model for an unbalanced panel using data from 1995 to 2019 in the PSVAR bivariate form (for details see Góes (2016) ; Pedroni (2013) ; Biljanovska et al. (2017) :

where y * i,t is an s n-dimensional vector of demeaned stacked endogenous variables, and

which equals polynomial of lagged coefficients with country-specific lag lengths J i , coefficient matrix A i j , vector of stacked residuals e i,t and B i contemporaneous coefficient matrix ( Góes, 2016 ).

In this model, we allow for full heterogeneity and robust inference decomposing (using time effects) impulse response function to idiosyncratic shocks and common shocks (region-specific response). To estimate the impact of pandemic outbreaks, we use TCGDP, TCEMP, SPEND, ARRIVALS, GOV, and INV as endogenous variables, and PANDEMIC (dummy), IPANDEMIC (interaction variable), defined in Section 3 . Structural shock (white noise vector) takes the form

with ε ¯ t ′ = vector of common white noise and ε ˜ i t = vector of idiosyncratic white noise shocks.

Composite white noise errors equal

and Λ i = M x M diagonal matrix with loading coefficients Λ i, m = 1,…, M ( Pedroni, 2013 ).

Composite structural white noise shock (vector ε it ) takes the form

with ε it = composite white noise shock, ε .,t = common shock, and ε ˜ i , t = country-specific idiosyncratic shock ( Biljanovska et al., 2017 ).

We use long-run identifying restrictions ( Blanchard-Quah, 1989 ) to obtain structural shock estimates for composite and common shocks. Impulse responses of common and idiosyncratic shocks (rescaled) show impulse responses to unit shocks. We intend observing an impulse response to a unit shock (−100,000 tourist arrival drop) in IPANDEMIC when pandemic outbreaks are present.

Fig. 2 presents the median composite response of the total (indirect and induced impact) travel and tourism contribution to the national/regional GDP (TCGDP) in a pandemic outbreak (unit shock) for 17 regions (including world) of the sample. A large negative impact of a pandemic outbreak on the (TCGDP) GDP created by the travel and tourism industry can be observed. The initial response of the TCGDP is negative for all regions and the world in total (panel a).

Impulse (composite) response functions’ estimate of TCGDP to IPANDEMIC

Notes: Median impulse response averaging with general to specific lag length criteria selection and 95% confidence intervals.

When a pandemic outbreak occurs, for a decline of −100,000 tourist arrivals (unit shock for pandemic), the total GDP created by the travel and tourism industry drops by −0.46 (bn) US$. The negative impact is largest in the first year with −0.46 bn US$ of the GDP lost because of the pandemic outbreak. The large initial negative impact is offset in the next year, declining from −0.46 bn to just −0.01 bn US$ in the second year. Thus, policymakers and travel and tourism practitioners can expect significant losses (in terms of the GDP created by tourism) in the first year of a pandemic outbreak. If the impact is larger than a unit shock, for example, a 10-unit increase in IPANDEMIC (equal to 1 million tourist arrivals lost) will cause −4.6 bn US$ decline of the real GDP contributed by the travel and tourism industry. With a 20-unit increase in IPANDEMIC (2 million tourist arrivals lost), we can expect the associated real GDP will drop by −9.2 bn US$. Policymakers and travel and tourism practitioners must know the deep potential impact of pandemic outbreaks on the tourism and travel industry and the national economy. Although the negative impact of the pandemic is limited to the medium-term effect (see the Fig. 2 ) on the tourism and travel industry and national economy, the impact is too large and sizable to ignore. It demands an appropriate managerial and economic policy response, an immediate and direct comeback to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences. The response must be straightforward and quick, since the time of response and the extent or limit of the measures will dictate the actual level (negative peak) of the pandemic shock. Without the appropriate managerial and economic policy response, swift and directed, the pandemic shock consequences are large enough to push any economy (even the most advanced) into a deep recession. The potential impact of a pandemic is great enough to have a tsunami effect on the total travel and tourism industry, leading to large-scale bankruptcies. We can observe the double-dip pandemic shock effect since after the initial shock TCGDP in the second-year decline just by −0.01 bn US$ for −100,000 tourist arrivals lost. However, in the third year, the drop in the TCGDP amounts to −0.06 bn US$ per −100,000 tourist arrivals lost. The pandemic shock effect dies out in the fourth year after the initial shock (medium-term effect). The cumulative negative impact of a unit pandemic shock (a drop of −100,000 arrivals) to the travel and tourism industry and the national output is −0.53 bn US$ (decline) of the revenue that the industry contributed the GDP. Pandemic crises because of their total potential economic impact on the travel and tourism industry and the national economy should be classified as a super cycle event in economic literature. For example, a pandemic event resulting in −500 million tourist arrivals' drop would cause a −2.809 bn US$ drop (3.3% of the world GDP 2018) in the GDP contributed by the travel and tourism industry worldwide.

Fig. 2 illustrates the estimate (common shock) response to the impact of the pandemic effect that originates in any other region in the sample (pandemic cluster), spilling over to the region of interest (see panel b in Fig. 2 ). The impulse response to regional pandemic effect (IPANDEMIC unit shock) is less pronounced with the composite shock impact. Past pandemic outbreaks over regions in the sample show an important but limited impact on a specific region of the travel and tourism industry and national output. Pandemic outbreaks show limited (spillover) impact when compared to the composite effects of the IPANDEMIC shock.

A unit IPANDEMIC shock (−100,000 tourist arrivals) harms the GDP originated by the travel and tourism industry of −0.10 bn US$. This means that a more extensive pandemic shock (a drop of −1 million tourist arrivals) would cause a −1 bn US$ decrease in the GDP contributed by the industry. Common shocks' impact on a particular region is less pronounced regarding the composite shock (worldwide impact), and it can have significant but limited negative effects. Remember, the composite shock impact of a unit IPANDEMIC shock is −0.46 bn US$ compared to −0.10 bn US$ for the common shock, which means that not all regions will be in danger of a super cycle event triggered by the pandemic crisis. The negative impact will not be at an "economic extinction" level but will still be important to observe. It can be observed that the median impact of the pandemic outbreak reaches through during the first year the crisis appears. The impact of the crisis is statistically significant (inside 95% confidence intervals – dashed lines). It offsets the shock effects in the second year (dropping to zero) but with a double-dip negative impact as for composite shock. The negative effect reappears in the third year with a −0.03 bn US$ impact on the GDP generated in the travel and tourism industry. We can conclude that some regions show more resilience to the negative impacts of the pandemic shock. Such evidence demands more research on the factors that determine the regional vulnerability to a pandemic crisis (like the phase of the financial/business cycle, government response, micro and macroeconomic stability, institutional efficiency, public sector efficiency, and health system stability). While the pandemic crisis is potentially devastating on a worldwide level, some regions are less vulnerable than others, and the regional economic policy is an important tool in fighting pandemic shocks.

Idiosyncratic impulse responses show how vulnerable regions are to the pandemic shock originating within the same region (idiosyncratic shocks). Panel (c) in Fig. 2 explains the effects within the region pandemic event. As expected, pandemic events originating within a particular region have devastating economic impacts on the same region. The median impact reaches through during the first year, attaining −0.45 bn US$ per unit IPANDEMIC shock. Pandemic outbreak within a region has an immediate negative effect on the GDP created by the travel and tourism industry and national output. A unit shock (−100,000 arrivals) results in the decline of the GDP (GDP drop) by −0.45 bn US$. The reaction to the shock is swift and profound. During the second year, the shock effects die out, reaching −0.01 bn US$, but the double-dip effect is present (the same as for composite and common shock). After "economic reanimation" in the second year, the negative effects of the shock intensify, reaching −0.05 bn US$ of TCGDP. The total effects of the shock die out four years after the shock, with the impulse response converging to zero. The estimated impulse response of the TCGDP to a unit shock is statistically significant over the whole period. We observed that idiosyncratic shocks of epidemic outbreaks (region as an epidemic cluster) were more sizable in relation to the common shocks. Idiosyncratic shocks are more important than common shocks, with composite shocks driving the dynamics of the idiosyncratic shocks. Pandemic outbreaks starting within a region impact economic activity connected to travel and tourism. National pandemic outbreaks within a region have a larger negative impact on the region's economic activity than the spillover shocks coming from pandemic outbreaks in other regions. The consequences of domestic pandemic shocks are significantly larger with more repercussions than spillover shocks in other regions of the world. Even in a globalized world economy, pandemic outbreaks in one region will have limited impacts on the tourism industry in other regions. However, a pandemic crisis started in a particular region will have a large and significant negative effect on the same region's domestic economy.

To conclude, pandemic shocks have a deeply negative impact on the tourism industry and economy. National pandemic outbreaks (idiosyncratic shocks) are significantly larger and more damaging to outside pandemic outbreaks (common shocks). Spillover negative effects of a pandemic outbreak have a limited impact on the tourism industry and economy as long as the pandemic outbreak started elsewhere does not become a "domestic" pandemic cluster. The difference in the extent of the common versus idiosyncratic shocks consequences comes from the differences in the domestic (region's) tourist industry's diversity and stability, the nation's/region's economic resilience, and the structure and level of technological and institutional development.

Fig. 3 examines a much different pandemic impact: the shocks on the employment dynamics (TCEMP) and the reaction of employment (TCEMP) to a unit shock (IPANDEMIC) over ten years.

Impulse (composite) response functions’ estimate of TCEMP to IPANDEMIC

The median response of employment to the pandemic shock reaches through during the first year (negative effect). The effects of the composite shocks (panel a) are negative and statistically significant (within the 95% confidence intervals). Composite shocks (sum of the common and idiosyncratic) to employment (direct + indirect employment created by the travel and tourism industry) show a pattern similar to the GDP and the tourism industry. The negative impact of a pandemic shock is significant and sizable, with an immediate decline in the employment level during the first year. A one-unit shock (decrease of −100 tourist arrivals) for a pandemic outbreak results in −24 lost jobs contributed by the travel and tourism industry. Thus, the pandemic shock has a significant negative impact not only on the employment level in the travel and tourism (direct) but also on associated sectors in the economy (indirect impact). For a −100,000 drop in tourist arrivals, direct and indirect employment created by the travel and tourism industry declined by −24,000 jobs. A more pronounced shock, a 10-unit increase in IPANDEMIC (one million fewer tourist arrivals) is associated with a decline of - 240,000 jobs in the travel and tourism industry and associated sectors. As expected, epidemic outbreaks have potentially catastrophic negative impacts on the industry as well as the whole economy. A large pandemic outbreak (similar to COVID-19) could cause −10 million tourist arrivals, triggering massive layoffs in the travel and tourism industry and associated sectors by −2.400,000 jobs. A massive −100 million decline in tourist arrivals worldwide (7.14% of the total world overnight visitors in 2018) could start a chain reaction leading to −24 million lost in travel and tourism worldwide (7.54% of the total travel and tourism contribution to the employment in 2018).

Negative effects slow down during the second year, recovering from the initial shock and dampening to zero. The total effect of the pandemic shock is highly persistent, with pandemic shock effects converging to zero after five years. Still, such a large pandemic shock does not show optimistic signs that the travel and tourism industry could return to pre-pandemic employment levels rapidly. We expect the industry to recover slowly during the initial five years, depending on the overall pandemic shock impact to the economy.

Panel (b) in Fig. 3 shows the spillover effects of a pandemic shock starting in another region and spilling over to a specific (domestic) region. Unlike the pandemic impact on the GDP spilling over to other world regions, labor markets associated with the travel and tourism industry are highly globalized and volatile. Common spillover shock effect is large and statistically significant (within 95% confidence limits), reaching through in the first year (immediate negative impact) of the pandemic episode. For a −100,000 tourist arrival decline, it can be expected that −18,000 jobs (direct + indirect effects) will be lost. Common shock dynamics follow composite shock dynamics, reaching through in the first year and slowing down with a modest recovery in the second year. The pandemic effect on employment contributed by the travel and tourism sector worldwide remains highly persistent over five years. Large pandemic shocks, like −100 million lost tourist arrivals, would result in −18 million laysoff worldwide (5.67% of the total world contribution of the travel and tourism sector to employment in 2018). Pandemic shocks have a sizeable negative effect on the highly globalized tourism labor market, as we can see from Fig. 3 . Pandemic shock originating in one region and having immediate negative effects on the domestic labor market is rapidly and extensively spilling to other world regions' labor markets (travel and tourism). A catastrophic pandemic crisis leading to 1 bn lost tourist arrivals would devastate the travel and tourism industries worldwide, causing −180 million lost jobs (56.7% of the world's total travel and tourism contribution to employment). Half of the travel and tourism industry and associated sectors worldwide would face economic collapse. Common shocks resulting from the pandemic crisis show significant spillover, transferring negative effects of the crisis from the domestic tourism labor market to the foreign. Global labor markets in the tourism industry are more vulnerable and volatile to the spillover effects of the pandemic crisis compared to the spillover effects on national economies.

A pandemic crisis starting (domestic) idiosyncratic shock (panel c in Fig. 3 ) has a negative and statistically significant impact on employment. The same pattern as in the composite and common shock dynamics is also visible in the idiosyncratic shock (domestic) in the region. Pandemic outbreaks starting within a region have an immediate negative impact on the travel and tourism sector at the employment level. The median impact is large and negative, reaching through in the first year and swiftly dying out in the second year. In the third year, the negative effect on employment reappears, converging to zero in the next two years. The impact of the pandemic crisis on employment in the domestic market is persistent and shows a medium-term pattern. The case is similar in the common shock; a domestic pandemic cluster (unit shock in IPANDEMIC) will bring down employment in the travel and tourism industry and associated sectors. For −100 lost tourist arrivals, −14 jobs will be lost in the domestic (regional) tourism industry. Although the negative impact does not appear significant at the start (same as an illusion with the linear and exponential growth), its cumulative effects are staggering. A total of −140,000 job positions will disappear in the region due to a regional pandemic crisis, causing - 1 million tourist arrivals. Over a decline of −100 million lost tourist arrivals to a region, the total number of job positions strayed will hit −14 million. Such a shock will bring a sizable negative effect on the region. For example, in Africa (in 2018) the travel and tourism industry contributed to 24.3 million jobs. Losing −14 million in the case of Africa, with a total of 24.3 million job positions related to tourism, would be devastating (−57.6% of the total jobs in Africa's tourism industry). The shocks starts slowly (from −14 job positions lost) and rapidly grows to −14 million, bringing a catastrophic unemployment crisis to the tourism industry and economy. From the impulse response function, we observe that no region is immune to the pandemic impact on the domestic tourism labor market. However, the final level of the negative impact depends on the importance of the tourism industry in the economy (share in the GDP) and other micro/macroeconomic factors associated with institutional and economic policy efficiency.

When we compare the median and the average (mean) composite, common, and idiosyncratic responses of employment to the pandemic crisis, the level of impact varies across regions (figures not presented here for space constraint). Further study on the determinants of heterogeneous responses across regions regarding employment to the pandemic impact (also at a national level) demands attention to better understand the mechanism behind pandemic shocks on the tourism industry.

Pandemic shock (IPANDEMIC) results in the decline of tourist arrivals transmitted to tourist spending (SPEND). Fig. 4 illustrates the negative impact of the pandemic crisis on foreign visitor tourist spending. First, we look at the composite shock impulse response (panel a), which resembles the pattern we discovered for TCGDP and TCEMP. The negative impact of the shock reaches through during the first year (immediate effect), reversing to normality during the second year. In the third year, we can see a second negative impact slowly converging to zero during the next two years. A unit shock in IPANDEMIC (−100,000 tourist arrivals) results in a −0.24 bn US$ decline in tourism spending. After the peak in the first year, the median impulse response of tourist spending to the pandemic shock declines but continues to persist in the medium term (five years). Unlike the response of employment to the pandemic crisis and similar to the output response, tourist spending response to a unit shock is more pronounced in the case of idiosyncratic shocks.

Impulse (composite) response functions’ estimate of SPENDING to IPANDEMIC

Panel (b) in Fig. 6 shows that the effect of the common shocks to a unit shock (−100,000 tourist arrivals) is −0.07 bn US$ of lost tourist spending. The common shocks impact is less pronounced to the composite, meaning that spillover effects of the pandemic crisis from one region to another are limited. Tourism service markets are highly globalized, but, according to our results, more robust and less volatile to pandemic shocks compared to the tourism labor markets. Pandemic crises that originated in other regions in our sample have a limited impact on foreign tourist spending in the domestic region. The impact, as shown in Fig. 4 , is statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval, reaching a peak in the first year and converging to zero in 3 years. Double-dip impact is less pronounced when compared to the impact on output or employment. We can conclude that the spillover impact of a pandemic crisis is displaced from one world region to another but is less profound when the pandemic impact starts within the region. A pandemic outbreak starting within a particular (domestic) region (idiosyncratic shock in panel c) exhibits more striking negative effects on tourism spending than a pandemic impact migrating from outside regions. The impact of a pandemic unit shock measured by impulse response (idiosyncratic shock) shown in Fig. 4 points out that tourist spending declines by −0.22 bn US$ for a decrease of −100,000 tourist arrivals. Compared to the spillover effects (common shocks) of −0.07 bn US$, we can see that domestic pandemic crises (response to idiosyncratic shocks) have three times (−0.22 bn US$) the number of devastating effects on tourist spending. The median impulse response reaches through during the first year after the shock, converging to zero in the second year with a double-dip in the third year. The pandemic impact of the idiosyncratic shock on tourist spending persists in the medium term (five years). Domestic pandemic outbreaks hit the domestic tourism sector and economy hard. For a −1 million of lost tourist arrivals, the domestic travel and tourism industry and economy loses −2.2 bn US$ in tourism spending. Larger crises, such as COVID-19, that could cause −100 million lost tourist arrivals could also cause regions to lose about −220 bn US$ (14% of the world tourism spending in 2018).

Estimated potential (COVID-19) impact on employment in the travel and tourism industry worldwide.

Impulse response estimates of the composite, common, and idiosyncratic pandemic shocks on tourism created the GDP, employment, and tourism spending present median responses. Average responses vary across regions, meaning regions show variances in the response estimates (the difference between the median and average estimates to shocks). This study does not present figures for the mean response estimates to shocks due to space constraints. Using PSVAR, we also assess median response estimates to pandemic shocks to capital investments: INV = Investment - Capital investment, both private and public (in real US$ bn), and government investments (GOV) = government individual expenditures on travel and tourism (in real US$ bn). Including these PSVAR estimates allows us to access the total impact of the pandemic crisis on the overall travel and tourism industry. Since calculations demand numerous tables and figures, we do not present them here due to publishing constraints, but we do give a summary and discussion in the concluding remarks.

Pandemic outbreaks have potentially devastating effects on the travel and tourism industry worldwide according to the evidence obtained from the PSVAR models in this paper. Policymakers and practitioners in the tourism industry should pay significant attention and adapt future economic and management policies accordingly. Empirical evidence of this study supports this thesis, providing robust evidence to hold the pandemic shocks' theory. PSVAR relies on structural and reduced-form modeling and historical series data to obtain empirical links between pandemic shocks and main indicators in the travel and tourism industry.

However, since COVID-19 is a new pandemic outbreak for which we do not have reliable historical series data, we have to estimate the economic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism industry worldwide using empirical knowledge gained with PSVAR modeling. The same PSVAR empirical knowledge gained in this study gives us the empirical background we need to develop a business dynamics model to test the economic impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

5. Estimating COVID-19 pandemic shock economic impact on the world and the regional travel and tourism industry

To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry worldwide, we set up a dynamic model (not presented here due to space constraints). From the estimated PSVAR models, we take parameters on the empirical link between TCGD, TCEMP, SPEND, GOV, INV, and IPANDEMIC shock. Estimated parameters reflect the empirical link from past pandemic episodes from 1980 to 2019 but say little about the empirical link of the above variables (COVID-19). To measure the potential impact of COVID-19, we recalibrate estimated parameters to correct for the knowledge we now have on COVID-19. Our dynamic model includes recalibrated PSVAR parameters, R 0 for COVID-19, a proxy for government responses ( Hale et al., 2020 ), country's/region's economic policy responses (RBA Research International), the share of export in the GDP, the travel and tourism sector share in the GDP, the phase of the financial cycle (credit-to-GDP gaps - BIS data), private debt share in the GDP, and tourist arrivals under three scenarios. We set up the number of international tourist arrivals under three different scenarios.

The first scenario is a lockdown as it occurred during March 2020 and continuing in April (scenario one from January 1, 2020 to April 1, 2020). The second scenario projects the continuation of the lockdown from April 1, 2020 to August 1, 2020. The third and worst scenario of the pandemic outbreak projects it staying in the environment until the end of 2020 (scenario three from August 1, 2020 to December 31, /2020). We use the above-explained building blocks to build a dynamic model for estimating the potential impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry worldwide.

Fig. 5 shows the estimate of the potential COVID-19 impact on the travel and tourism industry at the world and regional levels (regions according to the WTTC) under different scenarios. The first scenario is already in place (actual scenario) since we are well beyond its time duration: January 1, 2020 to April 1, 2020. This is the best-case scenario, assuming the pandemic outbreaks to be under control during April 2020 and a complete worldwide lockdown is revoked.

Estimated potential (COVID-19) impact on output in the travel and tourism industry by world regions.

The numbers in Fig. 5 present losses in the real GDP (TCGDP) in the travel and tourism industry (in US$ bn 2000 constant prices). Numbers in Fig. 5 stand for the GDP the travel and tourism industry could create but lost due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Under scenario 1, the world will suffer economic costs equal to −2.2 trillion US$ or −4.54% of the world's GDP. The actual scenario (scenario 1) tells us we can expect the world's GDP to fall by −4.54% in 2020. The world will experience a new recession phase amounting to a −4.54% GDP decrease if scenario 1 persists. We can see that pandemic economic shocks are significant and substantial (even under the best actual scenario). The costs are much higher even now under scenario 1 than policymakers and practitioners expected when COVID-19 first appeared in China. Thus, we can call scenario 1 an actual or inevitable economic cost that the world will face because of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Fig. 5 shows how the pandemic economic shock spillover effects vary across world regions. Advanced economic regions like the Americas, Europe, NortheEast Asia, Asia Pacific, and Northern America will experience significant declines in the GDP, from −853 bn US$ in Europe to −895.6 in Northeast Asia. The Americas and the Asia Pacific will face a significant decline in the GDP, with the Americas losing 1.5 trillion US$ and Asia Pacific 1.1 US$ trillion. In absolute numbers, other world regions will face a significantly lower amount in terms of dollar amounts, but in relative terms (their share in the lost GDP), they will face the same recession pressure as advanced regions. The region's potential recession is a consequence of a domestic pandemic shock and limited to a minor spillover effect of the pandemic shock from other regions. The reason lies in the economic lockdown policies that regions adopted to fight COVID-19. However, common shocks or spillover effects for COVID-19 are significantly more substantial when compared to the same effects for SARS (2002), H1N1 (2009), or MERS (2012). According to the actual situation and actual scenario (scenario 1), regions will face recession ranging from a decline in the GDP from −2.09% (Central Asia) to −7.82% (Caribbean).

Scenario 2 describes an undergoing scenario (April 2020). It shows that the adverse macroeconomic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis are much worse than policymakers and analysts expected when the crisis started. With the COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown continuing to August 1, 2020, the world economy will face a decline in output of −9.80%. Again, advanced regions will be affected the most (due to a drop in a large number of tourist arrivals) with the Americas facing −10.93%, Europe −8.33%, and Southeast Asia −9.88%. However, less developed regions like Africa (−10.08%) and North Africa (−10.03) could also experience significant recession. For less-developed regions, the dynamics of tourist arrivals are somewhat different (due to climate and environment), so their economic losses are more significant under the second scenario than under the first. Other regions, on average (−8.69%), will experience a pandemic shock with an output drop ranging from the lowest, - 4% in Central Asia, to the highest, −16.34% in the Caribbean and −9.59% in Oceania.

The third scenario, from August 1, 2020 to December 1, 2020, is the more severe scenario in our model (if lockdown continues to end of this year). The average drop in output under scenario 3 equals −12.72% for all regions in the sample. Regions with a significant share of tourism contribution to output, as in the Caribbean (−23.69%) and Oceania (−14.97%), will face significant idiosyncratic shocks impact. The less-developed regions of Africa (−14.95%) and North Africa (−14.97%) will experience a cascade effect resulting from both idiosyncratic and common shocks disrupting the supply–demand mechanism. Such regions will experience a double impact resulting from the domestic effects of the outbreak on the economic activity that amplified the worsening economic conditions abroad. Total world output if the lockdown continues to the end of 2020 will reach levels (−14.20%) far worse than the 2008 economic crisis and constitute the biggest plunge after WWII. The plunge depends mainly on the lockdown conditions that, if relaxed, will move recession scale more toward scenario 2.

Fig. 6 shows estimates the potential impact of COVID-19 on the labor (and associated) markets in the travel and tourism industry.

Fig. 6 also shows that the connected industries’ labor market will be significant and negative. As expected, the impact will be more substantial in regions more dependent on the travel and tourism industry. The Asia Pacific region under scenario 1 will lose 56.6 million jobs due to COVID-19. A large part of the region's travel and tourism industry, with 186 million jobs, will suffer a significant shock if not counterbalanced by government measures to fight the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the labor markets. Potential negative impacts multiply as lockdowns continue or countries retain strictly controlled border regimes (as announced by France and other EU members, at least to September 2020). Under these conditions, the second scenario applies, with the Asia Pacific regions losing a million jobs in the travel and tourism industry. Under the first scenario, the Americas could loss −19.9 million jobs, an actual scenario if we observe the last data for the United States with more than 15 million unemployment claims by March 21, 2020. In Canada, jobless claims in the same period peaked at 2.13 million with the model predictions fitting the data quite well. Northeast Asia could experience −38.4 million jobs lost in the travel and tourism industry under the first scenario, with South Asia reaching −22.4 million. The impact will be on a “tsunami” level for the Caribbean, losing almost 46% of the total jobs in the industry. Scenario 1 will hit the world by large force with −164.5 million jobs lost in the travel and tourism industry. Although scenario 1 is the actual scenario now (April 2020), the estimated impact is ample, but recovery is still possible since the average recovery time in the travel industry is estimated between 10 and 12 months. However, if the lockdown continues with travel limitations imposed, the second scenario could bring severe challenges to the travel and tourism sector well beyond the sector's resilience threshold.

Under scenario 2, jobless claims worldwide could hit 354.7 million with direct jobless claims in the travel and tourism labor markets reaching −118 million. Regions experiencing the most significant declines in employment (in absolute numbers) will be Asia Pacific (−108.2 million), Northeast Asia (−73.5 million), South Asia (−43 million), and Southeast Asia (−31.8 million). The total impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism labor market under various scenarios will depend, to a large extent, on the government's economic response to fight the virus.

Under the first and the second scenarios, governments’ economic response is essential but still not a last resort; under scenario 3, governments’ support to fight COVID-19 economic damages becomes crucial. Total jobless claims in the world could reach −514.8 million depending on two main factors: (1) if the entire tourist season is lost and (2) governments’ strength and speed of response.

Tourists’ spending in the travel and tourism industry worldwide will experience a drop ranging from −1.5 US$ bn to −771.7 US$ bn (see Fig. 7 ).

Estimated potential (COVID-19) impact on tourists’ spending in travel and tourism industry worldwide.

On the world level, tourist spending will drop from −604.8 US$ bn (scenario 1) to −1.9 US$ trillion (scenario 3). Regions most affected (in absolute numbers) will be the Americas (−138.3 to −419.1 US$ bn), Asia Pacific (−235.7 to −673.4 US$ bn), Europe (−192.9 to −771.7 US$ bn), Northeast Asia (−115.3 to −329.5 US$ bn), Central Asia (−1.5 to −4.2 US$ bn), North Africa (−9.0 to – 29.1 US$ bn), and sub-Saharan Africa (−11.8 to −38.2 US$ bn)—and these regions have the lowest absolute numbers in tourist spending. All other regions, as we can see from the tables, ranging from Central Asia (−1.5 US$ bn) to Europe (−771.7 US$ bn). Scenario 1 (as an actual scenario) shows the full extent of the pandemic crisis for the travel and tourism industry worldwide. Scenarios 2 and 3 show a profound impact on the crisis if pandemic outbreaks continue. On the world level, −1.3 US$ trillion in tourist spending will be lost under scenario 2 and −1.89 US$ trillion under scenario 3. The region most affected by the pandemic crisis will be the Asia Pacific due to its dependence on the travel and tourism industry. Policymakers and tourism practitioners can observe that scenario 1 is an affordable scenario for the travel and tourism industry. Under this scenario, the industry could recover from the crisis (regain lost income) in 15 months. However, scenarios 2 and 3 do not offer such optimistic conditions. Scenario 2 presents the resilience threshold, the point beyond which the travel and tourism industry will need massive government bailouts and incentives to recover from the crisis. Scenario 3 is the worst scenario that could take the travel and tourism industry back to the income levels of 2009 or even 1980. The third scenario would need a massive government support plan for the travel and tourism industry, similar to the one developed for the financial industry during the great recession of 2008.

Fig. 8 shows the impact of COVID-19 on investment flow in the tourism industry worldwide. Investment flow in the tourism industry will face large adverse shocks because of the negative expectations of the industry, and tourist practitioners do not have many choices to alter these conditions. Experiences from SARS (2002) and H1N1(2009) show that a recovery period in the number of tourist arrivals beyond the pandemic crisis and travel constraints lift-off last, on average, one year. Under such conditions, planning new investments in the industry is not expected. Another negative aspect is freezing investments and postponing future investments, since the recovery phase will involve price competition, not diversification of tourism supply (re-branding, innovation). Tourism practitioners should rewrite investment plans for the next two years, linking investments (if any) to price competition during the recovery phase and to product competition afterward.

Estimated potential (COVID-19) impact on capital investment in the travel and tourism industry worldwide.

As shown in Fig. 8 , the world level travel and tourism industry will face a massive decrease in the total capital investments, and total capital investments in the travel and tourism industry on the world level will drop by −362.9 US$ bn under scenario 1. Regions with the most significant decline as the one with the highest inbound arrivals and share in the GDP. The highest drop of capital investments is for the Americas (−106.4 US$ bn) and Asia Pacific (−188.5), followed by Northeast Asia (−92.9), Northern America (−83.9), and Europe (−83.4). Such a massive decline, even under the best scenario 1, will send the tourism industry back to the total capital investment levels of 2004. Scenario 2 estimates that travel and tourism industry capital investments could drop to the 1989/1990 levels. Since capital investments are essential for tourism growth, a decrease in capital investment will also result in the decline of future inbound arrivals. According to our model, capital investments on the world level will decline by 781.5 US$ bn. The decline under scenario 3 is even more significant, reaching −1.1 US$ trillion of lost capital investments in the travel and tourism industry. The tourism industry will have to abandon innovation and product development, facilitate touring visitors, experience development, and mobilize efforts to deliver consumer experience through increasing traveler confidence and reducing perceived traveling risks.

In the short run, the total capital investment decline across regions will reshape the tourism industry worldwide. The level of strength in the restructuring process will depend on the pandemic dynamics and the scenarios in place. Capital investments in the travel and tourism industry show a high level of volatility. Risk condition realization, in the form of exogenous factors (pandemic outbreaks, terrorism, environmental disasters) or endogenous factors (financial and business cycles), will result, on average, in a −15 to −20 percentage points drop in the level of capital investments in the tourism industry. The recovery period for the investments, unlike the conditions in tourist arrivals or spending, is long, lasting on average two years to return to positive figures and 8–9 years to return to pre-crisis levels. The larger the plunge in capital investments, the longer the recovery period and convergence time to pre-crisis levels.

Model results (scenarios 1–3) show that aggregate indicators in the travel and tourism industry will register a significant fall in 2020. Tourism industry competitiveness and resilience will be tested as never before and will require meaningful public and private efforts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

6. Discussion

Using PSVAR on data from 1995 to 2019 and system dynamic modeling (real-time data parameters connected to COVID-19), we estimated the potential impact of the current pandemic crisis on the tourism industry worldwide. Empirical studies on pandemic outbreaks and their impact on the tourism industry are not found in the literature. The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak will have an unmatched negative impact (vast decline in inbound tourism arrivals) on the travel tourism industry worldwide, and we empirically investigated those impacts in this study. Negative shocks will be significant, not just in the short run but also in the long run, and it will take several years for the industry to recover. The summary of our empirical results on a world level, demonstrated in the various scenarios, shows that the travel and tourism industry's contribution to the GDP will decline from −4.1 US$ trillion to −12.8 US$ trillion. In addition, the total tourism industry contribution to employment will fall from −164.506 million to −514.080 million jobs, and lost inbound tourist spending will plunge from −604.8 US$ bn to −1.9 US$ trillion with a fall in capital investments of −362.9 US$ bn to −1.1 US$ trillion.

Unlike past pandemic crises with idiosyncratic shocks having dominant effects, COVID-19, because of the travel restrictions and border closures, reveals large commons shocks (globalization effect) on the domestic tourism industry. During previous pandemic crises, like SARS (2002) and H1N1(2009), the domestic tourism industry suffered from idiosyncratic (domestic) shocks. Once pandemic cases were no longer registered, the tourist industry started to return (bouncing effect)—the extent of which depended on the risk perception, risk aversion, income levels, and hysteresis ( Mao et al., 2010 ). Past studies note the high resilience of the tourism industry to shocks (WTTC, 2019), and the number of months needed to recover in the tourism sector decreased from 26 to 10 months on average from 2001 to 2018. However, this time it could be different.

Past pandemic crises operated mostly through idiosyncratic shocks' channels, exposing domestic tourism sectors to large negative shocks. Once domestic shocks disappeared (zero infection cases), inbound arrivals started to revive immediately. With the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, global effects in the form of common shocks multiply the intensity of the crisis. Thus, a country with no COVID-19 alert (idiosyncratic shocks) will not experience an immediate bounce-back effect of inbound arrivals if other countries do not withdraw the COVID-19 alert (common shock). For example, a COVID-19 alert can be lifted for the European region, but arrivals from China will not revive if the alert is not lifted for China as well. Pandemic crises such as COVID-19 show multiplier effects through both idiosyncratic and common shock channels, resulting in a much deeper crisis compared to past pandemic episodes. Past pandemic episodes were limited to idiosyncratic shocks and constrained common shocks. Now, the interaction of both idiosyncratic and common shocks is stretching the tourism industry to the limits. Another important interaction is with the financial cycles. Pandemic cycles appearing at the peak of financial cycles, as in this time, intensify the negative pandemic impacts, limiting the economic response of business and government. Capital investments and employment plunge, real wage and household income abruptly drop, resulting in a decline in aggregate consumption. In the condition of high private and public outstanding debt, both private initiative efforts in the tourism sector and the government's economic policy instruments to revive the industry are limited.

Krueger et al. (2020) show that the rational relocation of economic activities across sectors is a strong mitigation force, even though the government is not explicitly intervening. According to the findings of the Swedish Model Solution, agents need to adjust their sectoral actions independently to ensure that the economic and human costs of the COVID-19 crisis are substantially modulated without government interference.

While idiosyncratic shocks caused by pandemic episodes in the past disrupted the domestic tourism industry, the economy's aggregate consumption remained robust to a point (relying on other sectors). With COVID-19 causing global lockdowns, disrupting circular flows and economic transmission channels, both the tourism industry (idiosyncratic shock) and the rest of the economy (common shock) are under stress. It is the first case in modern times that a pandemic episode caused a global worldwide economic disruption on this scale. It starts with a crisis in the tourism sector and amplifies through financial cycles (current levels of private and public outstanding debt).

Policy must be resilient in the face of change and/or adaptive to various eventualities. In order to avoid this relatively short-term occurrence from having a long-term "scarring" impact, a major priority should be an economic policy response that supports the companies concerned. In addition, helping people who lose their income is important as well continuing to provide the needed public services. Eventually, policy makers will examine whether broader measures will be necessary to help employees who are losing their jobs or facing pay cuts ( Emerson and Johnson, 2020 ; McKee and Stuckler, 2020 ). The environmental hazards impact on tourism ( Halkos and Zisiadou, 2020 ) shows expected heavy economic losses for the most developed countries and significant deaths for the least developed countries.

7. Conclusion

Policy makers and practitioners in the tourism industry must develop a new crisis-readiness mechanism to fight the current pandemic crisis as well as future pandemic crises. To do so, they must gain empirical knowledge on the nature and actual extent of the COVID-19 crisis. For now, this has not happened, and scenarios developed by them significantly underestimate the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Kirby (2020) recalls that central banks expect rapid tightening, representing the sharp fall in sovereign bond yields worldwide. Various countries are offering different economic assistance programs.

Policy makers and practitioners in the tourism industry need to gain knowledge of the impact of the pandemic crisis on the tourism industry and economy. In this study, we acquire the same knowledge by examining the historical effects of past pandemic outbreaks corrected the real-time parameters of COVD-19. A four-part economic strategy is required: (1) accept economic losses, (2) protect health, (3) support people experiencing a sudden loss of income by broadening existing security network programs, and (4) protect productive capacity and use economic production capacity to the fullest extent possible as soon as the virus has diminished ( Marron, 2020 ).

Our study demonstrates that pandemic crises have long-lasting negative effects on the tourism industry and economy. Estimated negative effects are far beyond those observed during past pandemic crises. Future pandemic crises should be dealt with promptly, and to do so, policy makers and practitioners need effective contingency plans. Our study shows that the pandemic effects of COVID-19 on the tourism industry share the effect of a common shock. A revival of the tourism industry worldwide will need cooperation rather than competition to minimize the costs of COVID-19. Mandel and Veetil (2020) estimated that global production decreased by 7% when only China locked down, but it decreased by 23% at the peak of the crisis when other countries implemented lockdown. As the shock propagates across the world economy, such immediate consequences are compounded due to buyer–seller ties. In the optimistic and unlikely scenario of an end to all lockdowns, the world economy takes about one quarter period to achieve a new balance. If partial lockdowns persist, recovery time will likely be considerably longer.

Our sample was limited to 185 countries divided across regions according to WTTC methodology. We used annual data and the PSVAR auto-regression model and system dynamics. Monthly data availability enabled the use of other time series modeling techniques, which improved empirical knowledge overall. Further studies should move in that direction and involve larger and longer time series samples to improve model accuracy and robustness. Our study is a modest contribution to the field of pandemic economics and tourism, and we hope it will encourage further research on this critical issue.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Marinko Škare: Data curation, Conceptualization, Methodology, Software. Domingo Riberio Soriano: Supervision, Validation, Writing - review & editing. Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń: Visualization, Writing - original draft.

Acknowledgement

Comments from the Editor and three anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged.

The project is financed within the framework of the program of the Minister of Science and Higher Education under the name ``Regional Excellence Initiative'' in the years 2019–2022; project number 001/RID/2018/19; the amount of financing PLN 10,684,000.00.

Biographies

M. Škare is Vice Rector for Research, arts and Cooperation, at the University of Juraj Dobrila in Pula. He was awarded the Juraj Dobrila University Prize and Istrian country (2013–2014) for the development of social sciences. He is editor-in-chief of the journal Economic Research, Taylor & Francis (Routledge group). He received a high honor degree from the Croatian parliament “National Science Award in 2014″ as recognition for exceptional research results. He serves on the editorial board of several internationally recognized journals and reviewers for WoS-ranked journals and as member of the Board of Governors of ACIEK. He is author of 140 scientific articles and majority of them in the ISI ranked journals.

Domingo Enrique Ribeiro-Soriano is Professor of Business Administration at the University of Valencia, Spain, Associate Editor of the Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, Senior editor of the European Journal of International Management, Inderscience, and Chair of the Cathedra Entrepreneurship: Being student to entrepreneur’ – Grupo Maicerías Españolas Arroz DACSA. He has published more than 100 papers in ISI ranked journals and has had a guest editing role in more than 25 issues of journals cited in the SSCI of Thomson Reuters-Clarivate. He has worked in Ernst & Young Consulting and was Director of European Community Programs.

Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń is associate Professor of Finanse at the University of Szczecin, Poland. Investator of several national and international research projects as well as author/coauthor of more than 50 publications. Expert in economic and financial evaluation of projects co-financed from EU funds.

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