climate change in pakistan research paper

• Share full article

Advertisement

Supported by

In a First Study of Pakistan’s Floods, Scientists See Climate Change at Work

A growing field called attribution science is helping researchers rapidly assess the links between global warming and weather disasters.

By Raymond Zhong

Pakistan began receiving abnormally heavy rain in mid-June, and, by late August, drenching downpours were declared a national emergency. The southern part of the Indus River , which traverses the length of the country, became a vast lake. Villages have become islands , surrounded by putrid water that stretches to the horizon. More than 1,500 people have died. Floodwaters could take months to recede.

The deluges were made worse by global warming caused by greenhouse-gas emissions, scientists said Thursday, drawing upon a fast-growing field of research that gauges the influence of climate change on specific extreme weather events soon after they occur — and while societies are still dealing with their shattering consequences.

As climate scientists’ techniques improve, they can assess, with ever-greater confidence and specificity, how human-induced changes in Earth’s chemistry are affecting the severe weather outside our windows, adding weight and urgency to questions about how nations should adapt.

The floods in Pakistan are the deadliest in a recent string of eye-popping weather extremes across the Northern Hemisphere: relentless droughts in the Horn of Africa , Mexico and China ; flash floods in West and Central Africa , Iran and the inland United States ; searing heat waves in India , Japan , California , Britain and Europe .

Scientists have warned for decades that some kinds of extreme weather are becoming more frequent and intense as more heat-trapping gases get pumped into the atmosphere. As the planet warms, more water evaporates from the oceans. Hotter air also holds more moisture. So storms like those that come with the South Asian monsoon can pack a bigger punch.

But Pakistan’s monsoon rains have long varied wildly from year to year, which made it hard to pin down precisely how much more severe this season was because of climate change, the authors of the new study said. Still, most of their computer models indicated that human-caused warming had intensified the rainfall to some extent, convincing them that it was a contributing factor.

The country might have experienced disastrously high rainfall this year even without global warming, said the study’s lead author, Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. “But it’s worse because of climate change,” Dr. Otto said. “And especially in these highly vulnerable regions, small changes matter a lot.”

The study was produced by 26 scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution , a research initiative that specializes in rapid studies of extreme events. This year, scientists with the group found that the heat that scorched India and Pakistan this spring had been 30 times as likely to occur because of greenhouse emissions. July’s extreme heat in Britain had been at least 10 times as likely, the group found . Next up is a study on this summer’s drought in Europe.

Attribution studies aim to link two distinct but related phenomena: climate and weather.

Climate is what happens to the weather over long periods and on a planetary scale. Direct weather records only go back a century or so in many places, which is why scientists use computer models and concepts from physics and chemistry to build out their understanding of the evolving climate. But the weather has always been variable, even without the influence of human activity. Attribution studies try to separate this natural variability from the larger shifts that fossil-fuel emissions are bringing about.

Attribution research “really helps us understand how weather sits within long-term climate change,” said Daithi A. Stone, a climate scientist with New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.

Nearly two decades ago, Dr. Stone worked on the first study to estimate the fingerprints of climate change on a one-off event — in that case, Europe’s brutal 2003 heat wave, which killed tens of thousands of people . Since then, scientists worldwide have published 431 attribution studies on 504 extreme events, according to an informal tally of English-language research by the climate news site Carbon Brief .

The field is still expanding rapidly, by Carbon Brief’s count: Three-fifths of these studies were published in 2017 or later. A fifth were published this year or last.

“The diversity of tools we have at our disposal to look at it now,” Dr. Stone said, “is beyond what we might have imagined back then.”

To perform an attribution, scientists use mathematical models to analyze both the world as it is and the world as it might have been, had humans not spent decades pumping planet-warming gases into the atmosphere. With computer simulations, they can replay recent history dozens, even hundreds, of times in both worlds to see how often the event, and others like it, occur in each. The differences indicate how much global warming was likely responsible.

Researchers often perform this comparison using scores of climate models to ensure their conclusions are sound. They also check the simulations against records of actual events that have occurred in the past.

To examine this year’s flooding in Pakistan, the authors of the new study looked at two metrics: the maximum 60-day rainfall each year between June and September over the entire Indus River Basin, and the maximum five-day rainfall each year over the badly hit southern provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan.

The researchers found that several of their models did not realistically reproduce patterns in the actual rainfall data for Pakistan. And those that did gave divergent answers for how much more intense and more likely this year’s rainfall had become under present levels of global warming.

The models gave clearer answers when considering a higher level of warming, however. This gave the researchers confidence to say that climate change had probably made this year’s flooding worse, though they refrained from estimating by how much.

Recent improvements in the climate models helped the authors narrow their estimates, Dr. Otto said. “The uncertainty bars are smaller than they would have been five years ago,” she said, referring to the lines in statistical charts that show ranges of possible values. “But monsoon is still something that models really struggle with.”

Pakistan’s highly varied topography, from its southern coast to the high Himalayan peaks in the north, causes its climate to be shaped by many physical drivers, said another author of the study, Fahad Saeed, a climate scientist based in Islamabad, Pakistan, with the research group Climate Analytics.

“The representation of all these processes can get tricky when you’re applying a climate model,” Dr. Saeed said.

Scientists often find storms, droughts and wildfires tougher to attribute to global warming compared with extreme hot or cold spells. Those events involve not just temperatures, but also the circulation of air and complex interactions between land, sea and atmosphere. Even so, new and improved models, plus greater quantities of data, are helping to close the gaps.

“For us as climate scientists, our laboratory is our climate models,” said Andrew Hoell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colo. “And they’ve advanced in ways that have allowed us to do more-robust attribution studies.”

Today, models are continuing to get better at capturing weather and its drivers at progressively smaller scales, Dr. Hoell said. Scientists can start to think not just about drought over a large area, but evaporation in specific watersheds and reservoirs. Not just average rainfall, but individual tornadoes and thunderstorms.

Climate scientists have also begun using artificial intelligence and other computational techniques to scour weather data for new insights, said Dim Coumou, a climate researcher at the Dutch university VU Amsterdam. These methods can help scientists uncover the hidden mechanisms that drive complex weather patterns, leading to better attributions and forecasts of extreme events.

“There is just a lot of data that is getting more accessible for scientists,” Dr. Coumou said.

Weather records show that South Asia’s monsoon is whipsawing more between drier years and wetter ones — unwelcome news for farmers who must increasingly deal with either parched fields or inundated ones.

Anders Levermann, a physicist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, has proposed one explanation. The South Asian monsoon begins each spring when the land warms and draws in moisture-rich air from the Indian Ocean. When this air hits the mountains and cools, its cargo of vapor condenses into rain and, in the process, releases heat. The heat draws even more air toward the land from the sea, which keeps the monsoon going.

On a warmer planet, there is more moisture in this system, which means the rains are amplified. But if anything blocks this inflow, such as an atmospheric disturbance or heavy air pollution, then its weakening effects on the monsoon might also be amplified, Dr. Levermann said.

“That’s the bad thing about climate change,” he said. “It’s not just an increase in something or a decrease in something. It’s an increase in variability.”

Raymond Zhong is a climate reporter. He joined The Times in 2017 and was part of the team that won the 2021 Pulitzer Prize in public service for coverage of the coronavirus pandemic. More about Raymond Zhong

Learn More About Climate Change

Have questions about climate change? Our F.A.Q. will tackle your climate questions, big and small .

The Italian energy giant Eni sees future profits from collecting carbon dioxide and pumping it into  natural gas fields that have been exhausted.

”Buying Time,” a new series from The New York Times, looks at the risky ways  humans are starting to manipulate nature  to fight climate change.

Ocean Conservation Namibia is disentangling a record number of seals, while broadcasting the perils of marine debris in a largely feel-good way. Here’s how .

New satellite-based research reveals how land along the East Coast is slumping into the ocean, compounding the danger from global sea level rise . A major culprit: the overpumping of groundwater.

Did you know the ♻ symbol doesn’t mean something is actually recyclable ? Read on about how we got here, and what can be done.

• Reference Manager
• Simple TEXT file

People also looked at

Original research article, impact of climate change shocks on economic growth: a new insight from non-linear analysis.

• 1 Department of Economics, Comsats University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
• 2 School of Economics, Quaid-e- Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
• 3 Department of Business Administration, University of the Poonch, Rawalakot, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan

Despite the fact that Pakistan’s contribution to GHG emissions is low (0.8%) when compared to other countries but it is one of the hardest hit by climate change. The present study is an attempt to identify the impact of climate change on economic growth. The non-linear autoregressive distributional lag (NARDL) technique is used to estimate the asymmetric effect of climate change on the economic growth of Pakistan. Annual data covering the years 1980–2021 are used for empirical analysis. It is noteworthy to reiterate that CO2 emissions and mean temperature pose asymmetrical results concerning economic growth, both in the long-run and short-run. CO2_POS and CO2_NEG have a negative impact on economic growth, whereas MEANT_POS has a positive impact on economic growth and MEANT_NEG has a negative impact. Precipitation has a positive and significant long-term influence on economic growth. Research findings indicate that comprehensive mitigation policies at the nationwide and worldwide levels are required to limit human-caused climate change in Pakistan. At national level, tree planting projects and safeguard greenery at all costs while at international level, policies needed for adoption of mitigation strategies to control climate change.

1 Introduction

Climate change is widely acknowledged as having major consequences for water supplies, agricultural growth, ecology, the health of humans and animals, forestry systems, and socioeconomic sectors ( Nordhaus, 1991 ; Stern, 2006 ; Tol, 2008 ). Climate change is predicted to have a greater impact on emerging and impoverished countries than on affluent countries ( Gemenne et al., 2014 ). Climate anomalies are becoming the norm as human-caused climate change exacerbates natural catastrophes worldwide, with the poor bearing the brunt of the repercussions despite being the major cause ( Nordhaus, 1991 ; Stern, 2006 ). The industrial discharge of Green House Gases (GHGs) grew rapidly after Industrialization. GHGs have a strong warming propensity and a lengthy lifespan (decades to centuries) which can contribute to global warming ( Ma et al., 2021 ; Syed et al., 2022 ).

The accumulation of GHSs will undoubtedly contribute to global warming ( IPCC, 2007a ). It should be realised that the climate is not a continuous, unchanging reality even when left alone ( Weiss and Bradley, 2001 ). Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounted for around three-quarters of total GHG emissions in 2018 ( World Bank, 2021 ). As a result, such high levels of CO2 emissions are frequently cited as a primary driver of global warming, and lowering CO2 emissions is typically seen as the most pressing issue for global economies ( Liu and Wang, 2022 ; Murshed et al., 2022 ). Globally, the researchers discovered that each additional 1°C of day-to-day temperature fluctuation was associated with a 5% reduction in regional economic growth rate in any given year. Even at the regional level, where yearly rates might vary by 16 percentage points each year, this is a significant shift. Forecasts show that if effective CO2 emission reduction measures are not implemented, the global temperature would rise by 3–4 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels ( NOAA, 2017 ; Kurramovich et al., 2022 ). The following map shows how big swings in day-to-day temperature hit economic growth. This map shows the percentage point change in economic growth rates for each extra 1C 0 of day-to-day temperature variability in any year.

Algorithm 1. Graph construction.

Source: Nature Climate Change/Maximilian Kotz.

The climate change argument arises from a succession of warnings from scientists and others, all of which indicate that human-caused climate change is an impending threat to civilization ( Stern 2006 ; IPCC 2007a ). Millions of people may face health consequences, crop production in the low latitudes may decline, water supplies may dwindle, precipitation in arid regions may decrease, extreme events may increase exponentially, and 20%–30% of species may face extinction ( Stern, 2006 ; IPCC, 2007b ). Worse, catastrophic disasters such as the collapse of the polar ice sheets might cause major storm surge, flooding hundreds of millions of individuals ( Dasgupta et al., 2009 ). If GHSs are not dramatically cut today, economic development and well-being may suffer ( Stern, 2006 ).

Climate change economic research has long shown that the market economy of agriculture, coastal resources, energy, forestry, tourism, and water is vulnerable to climate change ( Pearce et al., 1996 ). Agriculture and forestry account for a larger share of the economies of developing countries in general. They are also more likely to occur in lower altitudes, in which the consequences on these industries would be more significant. These latitudes are too hot, so profitable agricultural activities are usually difficult, and it is alarming that any further increase in warming will lower production levels even further. Low latitude countries may bear up to 80% of the consequences of climate change ( Mendelsohn et al., 2006 ).

To improve social welfare, sustainable economic growth and development are required. It implies that environmental sustainability should be safeguarded rather than economic progress occurring at the price of environmental damage. It has been emphasized that environmental deterioration is a difficult issue in the process of economic growth. Because environmental deterioration has a direct influence on people’s living standards and the operation of the economy. According to empirical studies, lower levels of development are related to climatic conditions that impact economic production ( Burke et al., 2015 ; Kalkuhl and Wenz, 2020 ). Reduced or even stagnated economic development would be a huge problem, especially for developing countries. It may, however, have distributional consequences in wealthy countries by disproportionately harming poorer regions within nations or more vulnerable sectors of populations ( Hirabayashi et al., 2013 ; Prudhomme et al., 2014 ).

In the literature, there are various plausible methods for climate change to affect economic growth. Climate change’s negative impact on economic growth is supported by both theoretical and empirical evidence. For starters, environmental deterioration caused by attrition, inundation, drought, the extinction of rare taxa, and mortality caused by extreme weather all have long-term ramifications for economic growth. Second, the means necessary to mitigate the effects of climate change would constrain investing in both financial and physical infrastructure, R&D, and intellectual capital, slowing development ( Pindyck, 2011 ; Ali, 2012 ). The relationship might theoretically be formed using macroeconomic and microeconomic characteristics. Macroeconomic consequences include the impacts on agricultural production and the country’s economic propensity to develop (for example, through changing investing or institutions that encourage economic output development) ( Dell et al., 2012 ). The interaction between the microeconomic analysis component and numerous variables like physical and mental productivity levels, conflicts, and well-being may all have an impact on the economy ( Gallup et al., 1999 ).

1.1 Climate- economic growth nexus in Pakistan at a glance

Pakistan, being a warm area, is particularly sensitive to atmospheric changes since it is located in a geographical zone where temperatures exceed the global average. The nation is predominantly dry and semi-arid (approximately 60% of the land receives less than 250 mm of rain per year, with the remaining 24% receiving between 250 and 500 mm); the rivers are mostly supplied by Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalayan glaciers. They are rapidly disappearing because of global warming; the economy is agrarian and hence particularly vulnerable ( Syed et al., 2022 ). The variability of monsoon weather and rainfall each year has resulted in huge floods and widespread droughts in Pakistan in recent years. As a result of the problems, Pakistan’s groundwater resources, storm surge security, energy security, and agricultural sectors are all jeopardized ( Boone, 2008 ). According to Figure 1 , mean rainfall in Pakistan’s dry plains and the coastal belt has dropped by 10%–15% since 1960, leading to the continued deterioration of the country’s wetlands and mangrove ecosystems. The majority of other regions have seen a slight increase, both during the monsoon and dry seasons.

FIGURE 1 . Historical precipitation in Pakistan, adapted from ADB (2017).

Furthermore, rising temperatures have created a noteworthy shift in monsoon patterns as well as an increase in the number of hurricanes in northern Pakistan in recent years, with agricultural consequences. Pakistan is the world’s sixth most susceptible country to climate change ( Ahmed et al., 2020 ). Figure 2 shows the future projection of the rise in temperature in Pakistan. It can be seen that the future rise in average temperature in Pakistan is significantly greater than the world temperature which is a very alarming situation.

FIGURE 2 . Historic and projected average annual temperature in Pakistan under RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red). The values shown represent the median of 30+ GCM model ensemble with the shaded areas showing the 10–90th percentiles.

Climate abrupt changes have been a vital concern for Pakistan because of its faster-growing population and the resultant increase in urbanization ( Anwar et al., 2020 ).

GHGs from the heavy use of fossil resources are recognized as the primary cause due to their influence on heat retention in the upper atmosphere. This increase in global temperature exacerbated the phenomenon of global warming, resulting in climate change worldwide consequences. Over 25 million people are employed in Pakistan’s agriculture-based economy. Pakistan is ranked as the world’s fifth most populous economy where the population growth rate is more than 2.83% ( GoP, 2021 ).

In general, when agricultural output rises, so does industrial output, because agricultural and industrial output are inextricably linked ( Graue, 1930 ). The link between the agricultural and industrial sectors has long-term implications since higher agricultural production leads to reduced prices and farm consolidation. The industrial sector makes use of extra manpower that the agricultural sector does not require ( Lewis, 1972 ). According to the general economic growth theory, this process leads the entire economy to grow. In contrast, the short-run relationship is very different from the long-run relationship. Agricultural commodity price fluctuations are directly related to the general health of the economy and the expansion of the industrial sector. Reduced agricultural revenue leads to lesser demand for industrial goods, and the economy suffers as a result. The importance of the agricultural sector in business cycles shows that business cycles are very much dependent on agricultural activities in economies.

The rising realization that Pakistan contributes the minimum to the environmental impact while suffering the most devastating consequences of climate change motivates Pakistan to understand the ramifications. This is due not just to economic losses associated with decreased agricultural output, but also to increases in sickness, mortality, and social instability. Countries face opportunity costs when they spend money on climate adaptation rather than on technological advancement or capital investment. We should take action to prevent human-caused climate change, as these changes have a significant impact on agricultural productivity. This is a highly concerning issue for developing countries whose economies rely on agriculture. The Figure 3 below depicts the climatic variance impact on agricultural trade through 2050 in Pakistan.

FIGURE 3 . Climate knowledge portal ( Chaudhary, 2017 ).

According to Naeem et al. (2012) , Burke et al. (2015) , Liu (2022) , Liu and Wang (2022) the impact of climatic variation on economic growth can be asymmetric. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to investigate the asymmetric impact of CO2 and temperature on the economic production of Pakistan. In case of Pakistan there is rarely any study available that investigates the nonlinear relationship between climate change and economic growth. This study will also contribute to provide effective policies that will helps in the reduction of economic loss due to climate change. This research also provides the answers to the following questions: Are temperature, precipitation, and CO2 are important factors that effects Pakistan’s economic growth? Do CO2 and temperature have asymmetric impact on economic growth of Pakistan?

2 Literature review

There is much disagreement on the primary drivers of climate change and the influence of climate change on global economic growth. The body of knowledge on the relationship between environmental sustainability and economic growth has developed dramatically. This section provides an updated assessment of how climate change impacts economies, as well as an evaluation of key empirical and theoretical literature on the relationship between climate change and economic development.

Wade and Jennings (2016) investigate the worldwide economic impacts of climate change. According to them, as global temperatures increase, rising operating expenses would harm the global economy, with studies suggesting a worst-case annual effect of 1% GDP growth. According to research, the impact would be disproportionately unfavourable for developing countries, and the long-term financial consequences of climate change can only be mitigated by cooperating to enact strong carbon emission restrictions. Berlemann and Wenzel (2018) explore the short- and long-run growth impacts of rainfall using a large panel dataset spanning more than 150 countries from 1951 to 2013. They discover extensive and highly strong empirical evidence for long-term negative growth consequences of rainfall deficits in poor and rising countries that are not driven by the Sub-Saharan African subsample. Stock’s (2020) research on Climate Change, Climate Policy, and Economic Growth included temperature, CO2 emissions, and GDP. According to the study, rising temperatures cause a wide range of climatic changes, including droughts, hotter days, and more powerful rainfalls and storms, all of which vary locally. The principal driver of this warming is anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. Baig et al. (2022) investigated the asymmetrical dynamic connection between climatic change and rice production in regard to other explanatory factors. On time series data from India from 1991 to 2018, the researchers employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and the Granger causality approach. According to the NARDL findings, mean temperature has a detrimental long-term influence on rice yield while having a positive short-term impact. Furthermore, positive shocks in rainfall and carbon emissions have long-term and short-term negative and severe consequences on rice yield. In contrast, negative rainfall shocks have a significant long-term and short-term influence on rice yield. There is a feedback impact between mean temperature, decreasing rainfall, rising carbon emissions, and rice yield, according to the Granger causality test. Khan et al. (2020) assessed the economic impact of climate change-induced agricultural output loss in Pakistan using a combination of global climate, crop, and economic models. Climate change-induced reductions in wheat and rice crop productivity would cost Pakistan $19.5 billion in real GDP by 2050, according to the estimates, with commodities prices rising and domestic private consumption declining dramatically. However, the decline in agricultural output affects not only the economic agents working in the country’s agriculture sector, but it also has a multiplier effect on the industrial and commercial sectors. A major increase in commodity prices would provide a huge challenge to the entire country’s livelihood, especially for city dwellers. Kiley (2021) utilised quantile regressions to determine if climate change increases the likelihood of severe economic recession. Temperature has a significant and consistent influence on economic growth risks across all dimensions.

3 Methodology

3.1 theoretical background.

The current research used the Cobb-Douglas Production function for estimation for finding out the impact of climatic changes on economic growth. These effects are then added together to get an estimation of the overall shift in social wellbeing induced by climate change ( Fankhauser and Tol, 2005 ; Niamir et al., 2020 ). Dell et al. (2008) integrated climate variations into the equation; this approach would be used as a benchmark in the ongoing study since it establishes a conceptual framework for including climate variations in the economic development model. Take into account the following model:

Where Y represents GDP, L represents labor force, A represents technology, and can alternatively be referred to as labor productivity, T represents climatic impacts, and K represents physical capital. The direct consequences of climate change on economic growth are captured in Eq. 1 while Eq. 3 captures the impact of climate on other factors that drive GDP growth indirectly. It is worth noting that Eq. 1 directly ties climate change to GDP, but Eq. 2 relates climate change to labor productivity, which in turn affects GDP growth. After taking logs of Eq. 1 and differencing concerning time, the following equation can be derived.

Where GDP growth rate is used, direct effects of climate change on economic growth are represented as α and indirect effects as β . This equation separates the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Both influence the initial pace of GDP growth. The direct impact reverses when the climate returns to its prior state.

3.2 Conceptual framework

The following conceptual frame has been developed based on past literature for current research.

Algorithm 2. Graph construction.

Source: Author Own creation.

3.3 Variable description and data sources

Detail regarding different variables used in the current study is presented in Table 1 along with data sources.

TABLE 1 . Data sources.

3.4 Justification of explanatory variables

3.4.1 real effective exchange rate.

Real effective exchange rate (REER) is the measurement of domestic currency against the weighted average of several foreign currencies, divided by the price deflator. Depreciation of domestic currency makes exports cheaper and imports expensive and vice versa . The extent of price elasticity determines the effect of price movements in the services sector ( Sahoo and Dash, 2014 ). Depreciation of REER results in an increase in exports for both developed and developing countries ( Gnangnon, 2021 ). According to Kandil and Mirzaie, (2002) the REER affect the economic growth through various channels. The first channel affects the demand of the goods and services by raising imports and decreasing exports because of appreciation. As a result, aggregate demand is contracting. The second channel is that appreciation reduces demand for the dollar because agents expect the REER to recover to its expected steady-state value. We have used REER as a key independent variable for our model.

3.4.2 Remittances

Remittances (REM) are the transfer of a portion of a migrant’s earnings in the form of cash or commodities to assist their family. The increase in remittances will increase the foreign reserves of the country and help in the appreciation of the currency. Mim and Ali (2012) through channels of saving and investment, remittances have a direct impact on the economic growth. Remittances can support the accumulation of human capital, implying that human capital is an effective avenue via which remittances influence the expansion of the GDP. The proxy variable used for remittances is Personal remittances received as a % of GDP which is also used by Munawar and Baig (2019) and Stojanov et al. (2019) .

3.4.3 Trade openness

Trade openness (TO) is the sum of imports and exports normalized by GDP. The proxy variable used for Trade Openness is trade as a ratio of GDP ( Keho, 2017 ). According to Wong (2007) trade openness impacts the economic growth through access to better and cheaper technology equipment, economies of scale, and spillover effects. The production of goods and services in an open economy can have access to foreign technology and innovation that result in a boost of production.

3.4.4 Inflation

An inflation is a situation of declining purchasing power of a specific country currency over a specific period.

3.4.5 Population growth

The population of Pakistan has grown at a rate of 2.1% due to an extremely high birthrate. As is well known, national income is divided by the whole population to determine per capita income. The population growth is shown in the low per capita income.

3.4.6 Mean temperature

The average air temperature throughout a specific time period, typically a day, a month, or a year, as measured by a thermometer that has been properly exposed. The mean temperature is often calculated for the year and for each month in climatological tables.

3.4.7 Carbon emission

Carbon dioxide emissions, also known as CO2 emissions, are those caused by the burning of fossil fuels and the production of cement and other goods. They also include gas flaring and carbon dioxide created during the use of solid, liquid, and gas fuels.

3.5 Econometric model and data analysis

The economic growth will be calculated using Eq. 4 which is the Supper Reduced form of the baseline model used is specified as:

Where Y represents GDP while RER, CPI, LTF, FD, Popg, CRM, TOT, CO2, MTEMP, and Prep denote real effective exchange rate, consumer price index, remittances, financial development, Population growth, and terms of trade, CO2 emissions, mean temperature, and precipitation respectively.

The current study used the NARDL model to estimate the asymmetric effect of climate change on economic growth. NARDL is the updated version of the Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL) of Pesaran et al. (2001) .

The ARDL model was used to examine the symmetric influence of variables in both the short and long term, but it does not account for the asymmetric relationship between variables. By applying partial sum decomposition of the independent variables, NARDL can tolerate asymmetric effects in both long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamic coefficients. Because of its simplicity and ease of interpretation, the NARDL model is frequently utilized in the research in a variety of domains, including economics ( Cho et al., 2006 ). The following ARDL equation shows the linear relationship between Climate change and economic growth:

Respecify the above equation above we get the ARDL Cointegration model equation as follows.

Where q is the lag of independent variables. η = Short-term representation of Variables. γ = long-term representation of variables.

The analysis normally begins with a check of the order of integration of all variables to assure a non-spurious estimation and that no variable is integrated in order larger than one I(1); otherwise, the limits test for cointegration will be invalid. To avoid erroneous regression, the ADF unit root test established by ( Dickey and Fuller, 1979 ) is used to assess the stationarity of time series data. Our model’s variables are a combination of stationary at a level I(0) and non-stationary, integrated with order one. CMR, CO2, CPI, Meant, and Per are all stationary at a level I(0), but all other variables are I(1), with no I(2) variables.

Eqs 5 , 6 show a symmetric connection between explanatory variables. Given the importance of non-linearity in that both positive and negative increases in MEANT and CO2 may have distinct effects. So, the NARDL model is more suited to reflect the asymmetric influence of these positive and negative changes ( Shin et al., 2014 ). Climate change variables are split into MEANT POS and MEANT NEG, CO2 POS, and CO2 NEG in the NARDL technique. As a result, the model is as follows:

Decomposing variables

As we are using a nonlinear framework in our study and there is a probability of nonlinear impact in the time-series data. Therefore, we make a nonlinear model as follows:

Where,i = lag identityt = time η 0 = Intercept λ = Long run coefficient

4 Results and discussion

4.1 testing of unit root.

In this study, we employed Phillips and Perron’s (1988) (Fisher-PP) and Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) tests to examine the propensity of a unit root test across a series of data. Table 2 shows the results of unit root testing. According to the findings, variables such as CPI, MEANT, and PER are stable at the level in both tests, indicating that they do not require differencing due to zero-order integration. However, after initial differencing, the other variables, which included GDPER, CO2, FINDEV, REER, REMIT, and TOT, remained steady.

TABLE 2 . Results of PP and ADF test.

4.2 Autoregressive distributive lag model co-integration—the bound test

To study the cointegration connection between variables by imposing zero constraints on one lag variable. As indicated in Table 3 , the computed F-statistics is eleven, which is larger than the upper bond values I(1) critical value (i.e., 2.77) at a 10% significant level. As a result, the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected, implying that GDP growth, carbon emissions, precipitation, average temperature, trade openness, inflation rate, Population growth rate, financial development, real effective exchange rate, and remittances have a long-run connection.

TABLE 3 . Bound test.

4.3 Short-run results

Table 4 depicts the short-run results of the NARDL model. According to the results, CO2_NEG and CO2_ POS have significant effects on the GDP level. 1 unit increase in the carbon emissions is likely to decrease GDP growth by 1.935 units, Ejuvbekpokpo (2014) found the same as our findings that CO2 and economic growth are negatively related to each other. The increase in CO2 emission effects the health of the labor, which as a results cause decline in the productivity of labor and negatively effects GDP as well. Further, a 1 unit decrease in the mean CO2 emissions also reduces the GDP by 2.6290. Ghosh (2010) found that the decrease in CO2 emission will likely diminish the GDP growth. The CO2 at a certain level is feasible for the agricultural production however lower than that will affect the agricultural production. On the other hand, MEANT_POS increased GDP by 0.1094, and MEANT-NEG decreases GDP by 0.1315. Since excessive cold can impede some activities just as much as extreme heat, greater temperatures in colder regions or during colder seasons may boost economic activity Colacito et al. (2018) . Other controlled variables including CMR, CPI, TOT, POPG, and PER show a positive impact on GDP growth. Further, CO2_POS, LFINDEV, LREER, LREMITT, and LTOT become significant after one lag period. The results of the ECM model show that the value of the ECM coefficient is negative and significant (−0.706). In practical results, the value of ECM should be negative and significant in the long run relationship which can be seen above indicating the cointegration among variables. This value of ECM indicates that around 84% of deviations are adjusted per year. This shows the stability, and the speed of adjustment is quick. In other words, the ECM coefficient is very large which means that the adjustment of short deviation around the long run time path is very quick. Anyhow the ECM model is considered stable, and the endogenous variables are the elasticities that indicate the short-run impact on services sector output. The value of ECM (−0.8415) indicates that the last year shocks disequilibrium as compared to the long-run equilibrium in the present year.

TABLE 4 . Short-run results.

4.4 Long-run results

Table 5 shows the long-term results of the NARDL model. Empirical results depict that there is an asymmetric association between climatic factors (temperature and Carbon emissions) and economic growth. According to our findings, CO2 emissions have asymmetry in magnitude, but MEANT has asymmetry in sign. The CO2 emission coefficient demonstrates that increases and decreases in CO2 emissions hurt economic development, i.e., a 1 unit increase in the carbon emission will likely decrease the GDP growth by 1.0025 percent whereas a 1 unit decrease in the carbon emission caused 1.35 percent to decline in the GDP growth. These findings are consistent with those of Porter and Brown (2009) , who discovered that carbon emissions had a negative and substantial influence on economic growth. They asserted that the negative impact is due to decreased land and labor productive capacity because of rising carbon emissions. The negative impact of CO2 on the level of GDP in the Pakistan economy is caused by a decrease in aggregate output. Our findings on CO2 emissions’ positive relationship with GDPG are corroborated by literature, which indicated that because of globalization, both companies and individuals will develop quicker. As a result, agricultural production must increase to provide food security and a continuous supply of raw materials to the industrial sector ( Schneider and Smith, 2009 ). As a result, higher agricultural production raises carbon dioxide emissions ( Celikkol Erbas and Guven Solakoglu, 2017 ). Indeed, improper agricultural practices such as agricultural production in unsuitable areas to increase output, pesticides and chemical fertilizers, irrigation, soil processing, mistakes in plant hormone use, stubble burning, and dumping of unsuitable animal waste into the soil all contribute to increased CO2 emissions from crop production ( Waheed et al., 2018 ). So, an increase in agricultural production increases GDPG and CO2 emissions as well.

TABLE 5 . Long-run results.

Climate change is a socioeconomic as well as an environmental issue. Too much heat or cold can have an impact on human behavior, efficiency, and, worst of all, mortality. MEANT coefficient shows that asymmetric effect on economic growth.1 unit increase in temperature increases economic growth by 0.0566 percent whereas 1 unit decrease in temperature decreases economic growth by 0.0681 percent. According to ( Colacito et al., 2018 ) positive impact of the rise in temperature on GDP growth is due to its variance from region to region. Higher temperatures in colder regions or during colder seasons may have a positive effect on economic activity because the extreme cold can be just as difficult to perform as extreme heat. So, the rise in temperature in colder areas could be more productive for economic activities due to less effect of cold. The positive impact of the temperature rise is also due to boost of some industries in hotter weather, like rising in the demand of refrigerator, air-conditions, Increased summer temperatures have a positive impact on some industries, such as rise in the demand of refrigerator, air-conditions, the solar industry, utilities, and mining, may benefit from increased energy consumption during hotter days. Our study is also supported by the results of Berge et al. (2017) . Our result further documented the MEANT_NEG pose a negative impact on economic growth. Several well-documented studies show that extreme weather hurts agricultural yields and worker productivity. These have an impact on household welfare and may lead to an increase in poverty incidence ( Lee et al., 2016 ). The decline in the temperature hurts the agricultural sector. Weather uncertainty in Pakistan causes loss of crops due to which the output of agricultural products declines. Heavy rainfalls in the region cause a decline in temperature and many times it causes flooding that as a result destroys the crops. According to Burke et al. (2015) , the regions with already cold weather are also productive and they yield more production but when temperatures decline more than a certain level it causes a decline in the output. Further, PER causes a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth. Past studies ( Porter and Brown, 2009 ; Akram and Hamid, 2015 ) also showed the positive link between precipitation and economic growth which primarily is caused by the agricultural sector.

Our findings show that there is a positive relationship between CPI and economic growth, as a1 unit increase in CPI will cause a 0.0030% increase in GDPG, thus as the rate of inflation rises, GDP Declines ( Asif, 2013 ). Our findings are consistent with those of Hussain and Malik (2011) , who discovered that both factors had a positive and substantial influence on each other. Our findings are consistent with the Tobin portfolio-shift effect, which states that a high inflation rate causes consumers to invest more in physical capital while decreasing their real balance holdings.

Our research also shows that POPg had a beneficial and considerable impact on economic growth. Our findings are consistent with those of Ali et al. (2013) and Afzal (2009) , who found that population expansion had a beneficial influence on economic growth. According to them, population expansion is not a serious concern; rather, it may aid economic growth because of the large workforce available and the division of labor.

In our analysis, LTOT plays a significant role in promoting GDP growth. The co-efficient of variable LTOT reveals that it has a significant positive impact on GDPPER. The coefficient is significant at the 1% level, implying that increasing LTOT boosts growth. The TOT co-efficient is high, indicating that a 1% change in LTOT results in a 4.0162 percent increase in GDP growth. As a result, developing countries like Pakistan must accelerate trade liberalization to achieve high economic growth. They should not be concerned about the weak arguments in favor of protectionism. This result agrees with Ghosh and Phillips (1998) , Leyaro (2015) , and Tahir and Khan (2014) .

The growth of GDP is positively impacted by financial development, as is to be expected. An increase in financial development by 1% causes an increase in GDP growth by 0.5015%. The availability of financing is extremely important for GDP growth. The increase in finance will lead to an increase in investment and production and as a result the GDP will grow. Therefore, it is advised that policymakers extend the lending of finance to highlight its contribution to economic growth ( Tahir et al., 2021 ).

On the other hand, the LREMMIT indicates a favorable and large impact on the output of the services sector. Results indicate that a 1% increase in LREMMIT causes a 0.1878% increase in the GDP. Empirical data are currently accessible that support our findings. Numerous research has discovered the beneficial effects of remittances on GDP, including Lucas (2005) and Glytsos (2002) . Like this, the study by Catrinescu et al. (2009) demonstrates that REMMIT has a favorable effect on output productivity. They discovered that the REMITT influences the GDP through consumption and investment. Investment rises by 3% because of the growth in remittance revenue ( Osili, 2004 ). Remittances from overseas raise the beneficiaries’ standard of living, which increases demand for and investment in the economy ( Mim and Ali, 2012 ). According to a study by Woodruff and Zenteno (2001) , 20% of remittances are used to fund microenterprises that experience rapid development and productivity. Our investigation suggests similar findings to those of these studies.

The results further indicate the positive impact of LRER. A 1%increase in the value of the rupee is likely to raise GDP growth by 0.3485%. A stronger domestic currency encourages businesses to adopt more advanced technology to boost production and, consequently, profits by increasing imports of the machinery and raw materials required for the development and growth of the economy. The opportunity to purchase cheaper raw materials encourages an expansion in production. These findings concur with those of Johnson and Koyama (2017) .

4.5 Granger causality test

Table 6 shows the results of granger causality test. It is observed that unidirectional causal relationship was running from LGDPER, LREER, LREMITT, LTOT, PER, POPG, CMR, CO2, CPI. Hence these causal relationships support the elasticity of NARDL for each series.

TABLE 6 . Granger causality tests.

4.6 Stability test

CUSUM and CUSUM of the square test were initially presented by Brown et al. (1975) . This test is based on a plot of the sum of recursive residuals. The plotting charts in this test show two straight red lines. While one blue line is between these two, red lines represent the percentage of the critical link. If blue lines cross red lines, then we refused each of the predicted variables which suggests that our data is nonlinear. However, if the plot stays inside two straight lines, we do not reject projected variables which indicate that our data is linear. CUSUM test identified us to indicate whether the coefficient of the variables is changing systematically or not, however on the other hand cumulative test helps to show if the coefficient of regression is changing unexpectedly. CUSUM Square graphs have been illustrated in Figure 4 . Because the plots stay between the critical lines at a 5% level of significance, we infer that the model is stable. Hence, we must assume that parameters are also stable because the blue line is existing inside the red line. CUSUM of squares is inside the critical limits of 0.05% which shows the structural stability of the model and overall goodness of fit.

FIGURE 4 . CUSUM square graph.

5 Conclusion

It is worth noting that the physical elements of Pakistan cause a broad variety of climate changes. This climate volatility may have an impact on Pakistan’s economic growth due to significant rainfall at one time and a drought condition at another, as well as floods and rising temperatures. As a result, climate change has had a negative impact on several areas of the economy. It is critical to understand the potential influence of climate change on economic growth in order to develop appropriate mitigation techniques and policies. In light of these considerations, the current study conducted time series research on the asymmetric relationship between climate change and economic growth in Pakistan. For this, we made use of the annual time series data collection for the years 1980 through 2021. The findings indicate that CO2 and MEANT have an asymmetric influence on economic growth. CO2 emissions have a negative long-term influence on GDP growth, but precipitation has a favorable long-term benefit. The mean temperature coefficient demonstrates that both increases and decreases in mean temperature are expected to favorably benefit Pakistan’s economic growth. The negative effects of CO2 result from reduced labor and land productivity due to an increase in carbon emissions. The detrimental effects of a decline in total output on Pakistan’s economy’s GDP level. As a result of the nation’s trade liberalization, more and more affordable used cars are being imported. As a result, the number of metric tons of automotive emissions has increased, endangering the environment. Plant fumes and portable generators, which are also imported in significant numbers because of the country’s inconsistent electricity supply, are other sources of carbon emissions. Our findings are validated by ( Azomahou et al., 2006 ; Ajmi et al., 2015 ; Salahuddin and Gow, 2016 ; Dogan and Aslan, 2017 ). However, the mean temperature coefficient indicates that both a rise and a drop in mean temperature are expected to have a favorable impact on Pakistan’s economic development. However, the impact of the temperature fall on GDP growth is minimal. Our research indicates that a 1 unit rise in temperature can result in 0.0566 units rise in GDP. According to Riccardo et al. (2018) , the fact that the influence of temperature rise on GDP growth varies by location is what accounts for this. In fact, because extreme cold can be just as difficult to perform as excessive heat, greater temperatures in colder places or during colder seasons may have a favorable impact on economic activity. Therefore, the economic operations in colder regions may be more productive as a result of the cold’s diminished effects. According to the study findings, if climate change is not regulated, Pakistan’s economic growth will be significantly curtailed. It argues for the need for a coordinated and comprehensive strategy addressing the implementation of prevention measures to control climate change because climate change will have a large negative influence on economic growth if it is not handled. Reduced economic growth will also result in a reduction in social welfare. Even though the poor contribute little to climate change, they bear the brunt of its consequences due to their reliance on agribusiness and inability to pay for preventative and mitigation measures. As a result, climate change mitigation is critical not just for economic growth but also for human well-being. However, Pakistan can only do so much to prevent climate change because its contribution to GHG emissions is modest in comparison to developed nations. Hence, two types of policy recommendations were presented. On the national level, The Pakistani government must increase tree planting projects and safeguard greenery at all costs. The problem is expected to worsen as the temperature rises and the population grows. Farmers must be taught cutting-edge agricultural and horticulture practices. On an international level, there is a need for an international policy regarding the adoption of mitigation strategies to control climate change.

Data availability statement

Publicly available datasets were analyzed in this study. This data can be found here: https://data.worldbank.org/country/pakistan , https://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/stats/pakEconomy_HandBook/index.htm .

Author contributions

NK: conceptualization, data collection, and writeup. AF: analysis and review. KA: methodology and review. JK: data curation and proofread.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Publisher’s note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Afzal, M. (2009). Population growth and economic development in Pakistan. Open Demogr. J. 2 (1), 1–7. doi:10.2174/1874918600902010001

CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar

Ahmed, W., Tan, Q., Shaikh, G. M., Waqas, H., Kanasro, N. A., Ali, S., et al. (2020). Assessing and prioritizing the climate change policy objectives for sustainable development in Pakistan. Symmetry 12 (8), 1203. doi:10.3390/sym12081203

Ajmi, A. N., Hammoudeh, S., Nguyen, D. K., and Sato, J. R. (2015). On the relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption and income: The importance of time variation. Energy Econ. 49, 629–638. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.007

Akram, N., and Hamid, A. (2015). Climate change: A threat to the economic growth of Pakistan. Prog. Dev. Stud. 15 (1), 73–86. doi:10.1177/1464993414546976

Ali, S., Ali, A., and Amin, A. (2013). The impact of population growth on economic development in Pakistan. Middle-East J. Sci. Res. 18 (4), 483–491.

Google Scholar

Ali, S. (2012). Climate change and economic growth in a rain-fed economy: How much does rainfall variability cost Ethiopia? Available at SSRN 2018233 . Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2018233 .

Anwar, A., Younis, M., and Ullah, I. (2020). Impact of urbanization and economic growth on CO2 emission: A case of far east asian countries. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17 (7), 2531. doi:10.3390/ijerph17072531

PubMed Abstract | CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar

Asif, K. (2013). Factors effecting unemployment: A cross country analysis. Int. J. Acad. Res. Bus. Soc. Sci. 3 (1), 219.

Azomahou, T., Laisney, F., and Van, P. N. (2006). Economic development and CO2 emissions: A nonparametric panel approach. J. Public Econ. 90 (6-7), 1347–1363. doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2005.09.005

Baig, I. A., Chandio, A. A., Ozturk, I., Kumar, P., Khan, Z. A., and Salam, M. (2022). Assessing the long-and short-run asymmetrical effects of climate change on rice production: Empirical evidence from India. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 29, 34209–34230. doi:10.1007/s11356-021-18014-z

Berger, L., Emmerling, J., and Tavonig, M. (2017). Managing catastrophic climate risks under model uncertainty aversion. Manag. Sci. 63 (3), 749–765.

Berlemann, M., and Wenzel, D. (2018). Hurricanes, economic growth and transmission channels: Empirical evidence for countries on differing levels of development. World Dev. 105, 231–247. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.020

Boone, C. G. (2008). Environmental justice as process and new avenues for research. Environ. Justice 1 (3), 149–154. doi:10.1089/env.2008.0530

Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., and Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Methodol. 37 (2), 149–163. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x

Burke, M., Dykema, J., Lobell, D. B., Miguel, E., and Satyanath, S. (2015). Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts. Rev. Econ. Statistics 97 (2), 461–471. doi:10.1162/rest_a_00478

Catrinescu, N., Leon-Ledesma, M., Piracha, M., and Quillin, B. (2009). Remittances, institutions, and economic growth. World Dev. 37 (1), 81–92. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.02.004

Celikkol Erbas, B., and Guven Solakoglu, E. (2017). In the presence of climate change, the use of fertilizers and the effect of income on agricultural emissions. Sustainability 9 (11), 1989. doi:10.3390/su9111989

Chaudhary, A., Carrasco, L. R., and Kastner, T. (2017). Linking national wood consumption with global biodiversity and ecosystem service losses. Sci. Total Environ. 586, 985–994.

Cho, S. H., Bowker, J. M., and Park, W. M. (2006). Measuring the contribution of water and green space amenities to housing values: An application and comparison of spatially weighted hedonic models. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. , 485–507.

Colacito, R., Hoffmann, B., and Phan, T. (2018). Temperature and growth: A panel analysis of the United States. J. Money, Credit, Bank. 51, 313–368. doi:10.1111/jmcb.12574(2-3)

Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., and Yan, J. (2009). The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: A comparative analysis. Clim. change 93 (3), 379–388. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5

Dell, M., Jones, B. F., and Olken, B. A. (2008). Climate change and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century (No. w14132) . Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research .

Dell, M., Jones, B. F., and Olken, B. A. (2012). Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century. Am. Econ. J. Macroecon. 4 (3), 66–95. doi:10.1257/mac.4.3.66

Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 74 (366), 427–431. doi:10.2307/2286348

Dogan, E., and Aslan, A. (2017). Exploring the relationship among CO2 emissions, real GDP, energy consumption and tourism in the EU and candidate countries: Evidence from panel models robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 77, 239–245. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.111

Ejuvbekpokpo, S. A. (2014). Impact of carbon emissions on economic growth in Nigeria. Asian J. Basic Appl. Sci. 1 (1), 15–25.

Fankhauser, S., and Tol, R. S. (2005). On climate change and economic growth. Resour. Energy Econ. 27 (1), 1–17. doi:10.1016/j.reseneeco.2004.03.003

Gallup, J. L., Sachs, J. D., and Mellinger, A. D. (1999). Geography and economic development. Int. regional Sci. Rev. 22 (2), 179–232. doi:10.1177/016001799761012334

Gemenne, F., Barnett, J., Adger, W. N., and Dabelko, G. D. (2014). Climate and security: Evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda. Clim. Change 123 (1), 1–9. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1074-7

Ghosh, A., and Phillips, S. (1998). Warning: Inflation may be harmful to your growth. Staff Pap. Int. Monet. Fund. 45 (4), 672–710. doi:10.2307/3867589

Ghosh, S. (2010). Examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for India: A multivariate cointegration approach. Energy Policy 38 (6), 3008–3014. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.040

Glytsos, N. P. (2002). Dynamic effects of migrant remittances on growth: An econometric model with an application to mediterranean countries , 74. Athens, Greece: Centre of Planning and Economic Research .

Gnangnon, S. K. (2021). Real exchange rate and services export diversification .

GoP (2021). Economics survey 2020–21. Available at http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_20/PES_2020_21.pdf .

Graue, E. (1930). The relationship of business activity to agriculture. J. Political Econ. 38 (4), 472–478. doi:10.1086/254124

Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., et al. (2013). Global flood risk under climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3 (9), 816–821. doi:10.1038/nclimate1911

Hussain, S., and Malik, S. (2011). Inflation and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. Int. J. Econ. Finance 3 (5), 262–276. doi:10.5539/ijef.v3n5p262

IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 the physical science basis. The intergovernmental panel on climate change . Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press .(Intergovernmental panel on climate change).

Johnson, N. D., and Koyama, M. (2017). States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints. Explor. Econ. Hist. 64, 1–20. doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2016.11.002

Kalkuhl, M., and Wenz, L. (2020). The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 103, 102360. doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360

Kandil, M., and Mirzaie, A. (2002). Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: Theory and evidence. J. Int. Money Finance 21 (1), 1–31. doi:10.1016/s0261-5606(01)00016-x

Keho, Y. (2017). The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d’Ivoire. Cogent Econ. Finance 5 (1), 1332820. doi:10.1080/23322039.2017.1332820

Khan, M. A., Tahir, A., Khurshid, N., Husnain, M. I. U., Ahmed, M., and Boughanmi, H. (2020). Economic effects of climate change-induced loss of agricultural production by 2050: A case study of Pakistan. Sustainability 12 (3), 1216. doi:10.3390/su12031216

Kiley, M. T. (2021). Growth at risk from climate change . FEDS Working Paper No. 2021-54.

Kurramovich, K. K., Abro, A. A., Vaseer, A. I., Khan, S. U., Ali, S. R., and Murshed, M. (2022). Roadmap for carbon neutrality: The mediating role of clean energy development-related investments. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 29 (23), 34055–34074. doi:10.1007/s11356-021-17985-3

Lee, M., Villaruel, M. L., and Gaspar, R. E. (2016). Effects of temperature shocks on economic growth and welfare in Asia , 501. Philippines: Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series .

Lewis, W. A. (1972). “Reflections on unlimited labor,” in International economics and development ( Academic Press ), 75–96.

Leyaro, V. (2015). Threshold and interaction effects in the trade, growth, and inequality relationship (No. 2015/009) . Finland: WIDER Working Paper .

Liu, L. (2022). The dynamics of early-stage transmission of COVID-19: A novel quantification of the role of global temperature . Gondwana Research . doi:10.1016/j.gr.2021.12.0102022

Liu, L., and Wang, Q. (2022). Is the effect of human activity on air pollution linear or nonlinear? Evidence from wuhan, China, under the COVID-19 lockdown. Cities 127, 103752. doi:10.1016/j.cities.2022.103752

Lucas, R. E. (2005). International migration to the high-income countries: Some consequences for economic development in the sending countries. Confronting Globalization . The Hague: Kluwer , 157–190.

Ma, Q., Murshed, M., and Khan, Z. (2021). The nexuses between energy investments, technological innovations, emission taxes, and carbon emissions in China. Energy Policy 155, 112345. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112345

Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., and Williams, L. (2006). The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries. Environ. Dev. Econ. 11 (2), 159–178. doi:10.1017/s1355770x05002755

Mim, S. B., and Ali, M. S. B. (2012). Through which channels can remittances spur economic growth in MENA countries? Economics 6 (1). doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-33

Munawar, S., and Baig, M. A. (2019). Impact of remittance on economic growth of Pakistan. Rev. Manag. Sci. 1 (1), 27–46.

Murshed, M., Apergis, N., Alam, M. S., Khan, U., and Mahmud, S. (2022). The impacts of renewable energy, financial inclusivity, globalization, economic growth, and urbanization on carbon productivity: Evidence from net moderation and mediation effects of energy efficiency gains. Renew. Energy 196, 824–838. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2022.07.012

Naeem, U. A., Hashmi, H. N., Shamim, M. A., and Ejaz, N. (2012). Flow variation in Astore river under assumed glaciated extents due to climate change. Pak. J. Eng. Appl. Sci .

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2017). CarbonTracker CT2015. Available at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/CT2015/ .

Niamir, L., Ivanova, O., and Filatova, T. (2020). Economy-wide impacts of behavioral climate change mitigation: Linking agent-based and computable general equilibrium models. Environ. Model. Softw. 134, 104839. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104839

Nordhaus, W. D. (1991). The cost of slowing climate change: A survey. Energy J. 12 (1). doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol12-no1-4

Osili, U. O. (2004). Migrants and housing investments: Theory and evidence from Nigeria. Econ. Dev. Cult. change 52 (4), 821–849. doi:10.1086/420903

IPCC (2007b). “(Intergovernmental panel on climate change). Climate change 2007: Synthesis report,” in Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change . Editors R. K. Pachauri, and A. Reisinger (Switzerland: IPCC Geneva ), 446.

Pearce, D., Cline, W., Achanta, A., Fankhauser, S., Pachauri, R., Tol, R., et al. (1996). “The social cost of climate change: Greenhouse damage and the benefits of control,” in Climate change 1995: Economic and social dimensions of climate change. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press ).

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl. Econ. Chichester. Engl. 16 (3), 289–326. doi:10.1002/jae.616

Pindyck, R. S. (2011). Fat tails, thin tails, and climate change policy. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 5 (2), 258–274. doi:10.1093/reep/rer005

Porter, A., and Brown, H. J. (2009). Energy consumption, economic growth and prices; A reassessment using panel vecm for developed and developing countries. Energy Policy 35, 2481–2490.

Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., et al. (2014). Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 111 (9), 3262–3267. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222473110

Ricardo, H. D. D. R. B. (2018). Forecasting tourism demand for Lisbon s region: A data mining approach. (PhD dissertation).

Sahoo, P., and Dash, R. K. (2014). India's surge in modern services exports: Empirics for policy. J. Policy Model. 36 (6), 1082–1100. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.10.006

Salahuddin, M., and Gow, J. (2016). The effects of internet usage, financial development and trade openness on economic growth in South Africa: A time series analysis. Telematics Inf. 33 (4), 1141–1154. doi:10.1016/j.tele.2015.11.006

Schneider, U. A., and Smith, P. (2009). Energy intensities and greenhouse gas emission mitigation in global agriculture. Energy Effic. 2 (2), 195–206. doi:10.1007/s12053-008-9035-5

Shin, Y., Yu, B., and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). “Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework,” in Festschrift in honor of peter schmidt (New York, NY: Springer ), 281–314.

Stern, N. (2006). The stern review report: The economics of climate change . London: HM Treasury .

Stock, J. H. (2020). Climate change, climate policy, and economic growth. NBER Macroecon. Annu. 34 (1), 399–419. doi:10.1086/707193

Stojanov, R., Němec, D., and Žídek, L. (2019). Evaluation of the long-term stability and impact of remittances and development aid on sustainable economic growth in developing countries. Sustainability 11 (6), 1538. doi:10.3390/su11061538

Syed, A., Raza, T., Bhatti, T. T., and Eash, N. S. (2022). Climate Impacts on the agricultural sector of Pakistan: Risks and solutions. Environ. Challenges 6, 100433. doi:10.1016/j.envc.2021.100433

Tahir, M., and Khan, I. (2014). Trade openness and economic growth in the Asian region. J. Chin. Econ. Foreign Trade Stud. 7, 136–152. doi:10.1108/jcefts-05-2014-0006

Tahir, T., Luni, T., Majeed, M. T., and Zafar, A. (2021). The impact of financial development and globalization on environmental quality: Evidence from South asian economies. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 28 (7), 8088–8101. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-11198-w

Tol, R. S. (2008). Why worry about climate change? A research agenda. Environ. values 17 (4), 437–470. doi:10.3197/096327108x368485

Wade, K., and Jennings, M. (2016). The impact of climate change on the global economy. Schroders Talk. Point .

Waheed, R., Chang, D., Sarwar, S., and Chen, W. (2018). Forest, agriculture, renewable energy, and CO2 emission. J. Clean. Prod. 172, 4231–4238. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.287

Weiss, H., and Bradley, R. (2001). What drives societal collapse? Science 291, 609–610. doi:10.1126/science.1058775

Wong, S. A. (2007). “Productivity and trade openness: Micro-level evidence from manufacturing industries in Ecuador 1997–2003,” in APEA 2007 conference .

Woodruff, C. M., and Zenteno, R. (2001). Remittances and microenterprises in Mexico. UCSD, graduate School of international Relations and pacific studies working paper .

World Bank. (2021). World dev. Indic. Available at http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports .2021.

Keywords: economic growth, CO2 emissions, asymmetries, NARDL, Pakistan

Citation: Khurshid N, Fiaz A, Khurshid J and Ali K (2022) Impact of climate change shocks on economic growth: A new insight from non-linear analysis. Front. Environ. Sci. 10:1039128. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2022.1039128

Received: 07 September 2022; Accepted: 11 October 2022; Published: 25 October 2022.

Reviewed by:

Copyright © 2022 Khurshid, Fiaz, Khurshid and Ali. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Nabila Khurshid, [email protected]

This article is part of the Research Topic

Carbon Neutrality Approaches in Buildings and Agriculture Sectors

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• 02 September 2022
• Correction 02 September 2022
• Correction 16 September 2022

Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?

• Smriti Mallapaty

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

With rivers breaking their banks, flash flooding and glacial lakes bursting, Pakistan is experiencing its worst floods this century. At least two-thirds of the country’s districts have been affected. Scientists say several factors have contributed to the extreme event, which has displaced some 33 million people and killed more than 1,200.

Access options

Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals

Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription

24,99 € / 30 days

cancel any time

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 51 print issues and online access

185,98 € per year

only 3,65 € per issue

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02813-6

Updates & Corrections

Correction 02 September 2022 : An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated the number of houses that have been destroyed. The correct figure is 1.2 million.

Correction 16 September 2022 : A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that at least one-third of the country was under water.

Reprints and permissions

Related Articles

• Climate sciences
• Climate change
• Atmospheric science

Baseball-sized hail in Spain began with a heatwave at sea

Research Highlight 05 APR 24

The EU’s ominous emphasis on ‘open strategic autonomy’ in research

Editorial 03 APR 24

Don’t dismiss carbon credits that aim to avoid future emissions

Correspondence 02 APR 24

A 2023 hurricane caught Mexico off guard: we must work together to prepare better

Comment 02 APR 24

Divisive Sun-dimming study at Harvard cancelled: what’s next?

News Explainer 27 MAR 24

Megafires are here to stay — and blaming only climate change won’t help

World View 05 MAR 24

Why sunsets were a weird colour after Krakatau blew its top

Research Highlight 01 MAR 24

Postdoctoral Fellow (Aging, Metabolic stress, Lipid sensing, Brain Injury)

Seeking a Postdoctoral Fellow to apply advanced knowledge & skills to generate insights into aging, metabolic stress, lipid sensing, & brain Injury.

Dallas, Texas (US)

UT Southwestern Medical Center - Douglas Laboratory

High-Level Talents at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University

For clinical medicine and basic medicine; basic research of emerging inter-disciplines and medical big data.

Nanchang, Jiangxi, China

The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University

POSTDOCTORAL Fellow -- DEPARTMENT OF Surgery – BIDMC, Harvard Medical School

The Division of Urologic Surgery in the Department of Surgery at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School invites applicatio...

Boston, Massachusetts (US)

Director of Research

Applications are invited for the post of Director of Research at Cancer Institute (WIA), Chennai, India.

Chennai, Tamil Nadu (IN)

Cancer Institute (W.I.A)

Postdoctoral Fellow in Human Immunology (wet lab)

Join Atomic Lab in Boston as a postdoc in human immunology for universal flu vaccine project. Expertise in cytometry, cell sorting, scRNAseq.

Boston University Atomic Lab

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List
• Springer Nature - PMC COVID-19 Collection

A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

Kashif abbass.

1 School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210094 People’s Republic of China

Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim

2 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Chemical Pollution Control and Resources Reuse, School of Environmental and Biological Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Xiaolingwei 200, Nanjing, 210094 People’s Republic of China

Huaming Song

Muntasir murshed.

3 School of Business and Economics, North South University, Dhaka, 1229 Bangladesh

4 Department of Journalism, Media and Communications, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Haider Mahmood

5 Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, 173, Alkharj, 11942 Saudi Arabia

Ijaz Younis

Associated data.

Data sources and relevant links are provided in the paper to access data.

Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the agricultural sector’s vulnerability is a globally concerning scenario, as sufficient production and food supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. In turn, it is challenging the global feeding patterns, particularly in countries with agriculture as an integral part of their economy and total productivity. Climate change has also put the integrity and survival of many species at stake due to shifts in optimum temperature ranges, thereby accelerating biodiversity loss by progressively changing the ecosystem structures. Climate variations increase the likelihood of particular food and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, and a recent example is a coronavirus pandemic. Climate change also accelerates the enigma of antimicrobial resistance, another threat to human health due to the increasing incidence of resistant pathogenic infections. Besides, the global tourism industry is devastated as climate change impacts unfavorable tourism spots. The methodology investigates hypothetical scenarios of climate variability and attempts to describe the quality of evidence to facilitate readers’ careful, critical engagement. Secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability. To better understand the problem, gathered the information in this report from various media outlets, research agencies, policy papers, newspapers, and other sources. This review is a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs. According to the findings, government involvement is necessary for the country’s long-term development through strict accountability of resources and regulations implemented in the past to generate cutting-edge climate policy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change must be of the utmost importance, and hence, this global threat requires global commitment to address its dreadful implications to ensure global sustenance.

Introduction

Worldwide observed and anticipated climatic changes for the twenty-first century and global warming are significant global changes that have been encountered during the past 65 years. Climate change (CC) is an inter-governmental complex challenge globally with its influence over various components of the ecological, environmental, socio-political, and socio-economic disciplines (Adger et al.  2005 ; Leal Filho et al.  2021 ; Feliciano et al.  2022 ). Climate change involves heightened temperatures across numerous worlds (Battisti and Naylor  2009 ; Schuurmans  2021 ; Weisheimer and Palmer  2005 ; Yadav et al.  2015 ). With the onset of the industrial revolution, the problem of earth climate was amplified manifold (Leppänen et al.  2014 ). It is reported that the immediate attention and due steps might increase the probability of overcoming its devastating impacts. It is not plausible to interpret the exact consequences of climate change (CC) on a sectoral basis (Izaguirre et al.  2021 ; Jurgilevich et al.  2017 ), which is evident by the emerging level of recognition plus the inclusion of climatic uncertainties at both local and national level of policymaking (Ayers et al.  2014 ).

Climate change is characterized based on the comprehensive long-haul temperature and precipitation trends and other components such as pressure and humidity level in the surrounding environment. Besides, the irregular weather patterns, retreating of global ice sheets, and the corresponding elevated sea level rise are among the most renowned international and domestic effects of climate change (Lipczynska-Kochany  2018 ; Michel et al.  2021 ; Murshed and Dao 2020 ). Before the industrial revolution, natural sources, including volcanoes, forest fires, and seismic activities, were regarded as the distinct sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, and H 2 O into the atmosphere (Murshed et al. 2020 ; Hussain et al.  2020 ; Sovacool et al.  2021 ; Usman and Balsalobre-Lorente 2022 ; Murshed 2022 ). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) struck a major agreement to tackle climate change and accelerate and intensify the actions and investments required for a sustainable low-carbon future at Conference of the Parties (COP-21) in Paris on December 12, 2015. The Paris Agreement expands on the Convention by bringing all nations together for the first time in a single cause to undertake ambitious measures to prevent climate change and adapt to its impacts, with increased funding to assist developing countries in doing so. As so, it marks a turning point in the global climate fight. The core goal of the Paris Agreement is to improve the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping the global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C over pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C (Sharma et al. 2020 ; Sharif et al. 2020 ; Chien et al. 2021 .

Furthermore, the agreement aspires to strengthen nations’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and align financing flows with low GHG emissions and climate-resilient paths (Shahbaz et al. 2019 ; Anwar et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2022a ). To achieve these lofty goals, adequate financial resources must be mobilized and provided, as well as a new technology framework and expanded capacity building, allowing developing countries and the most vulnerable countries to act under their respective national objectives. The agreement also establishes a more transparent action and support mechanism. All Parties are required by the Paris Agreement to do their best through “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the coming years (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2020 ). It includes obligations that all Parties regularly report on their emissions and implementation activities. A global stock-take will be conducted every five years to review collective progress toward the agreement’s goal and inform the Parties’ future individual actions. The Paris Agreement became available for signature on April 22, 2016, Earth Day, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. On November 4, 2016, it went into effect 30 days after the so-called double threshold was met (ratification by 55 nations accounting for at least 55% of world emissions). More countries have ratified and continue to ratify the agreement since then, bringing 125 Parties in early 2017. To fully operationalize the Paris Agreement, a work program was initiated in Paris to define mechanisms, processes, and recommendations on a wide range of concerns (Murshed et al. 2021 ). Since 2016, Parties have collaborated in subsidiary bodies (APA, SBSTA, and SBI) and numerous formed entities. The Conference of the Parties functioning as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) convened for the first time in November 2016 in Marrakesh in conjunction with COP22 and made its first two resolutions. The work plan is scheduled to be finished by 2018. Some mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the emission in the prospective of Paris agreement are following firstly, a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, secondly, to aim to limit the rise to 1.5 °C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change, thirdly, on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries, lastly, to undertake rapid reductions after that under the best available science, to achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century. On the other side, some adaptation strategies are; strengthening societies’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and to continue & expand international assistance for developing nations’ adaptation.

However, anthropogenic activities are currently regarded as most accountable for CC (Murshed et al. 2022 ). Apart from the industrial revolution, other anthropogenic activities include excessive agricultural operations, which further involve the high use of fuel-based mechanization, burning of agricultural residues, burning fossil fuels, deforestation, national and domestic transportation sectors, etc. (Huang et al.  2016 ). Consequently, these anthropogenic activities lead to climatic catastrophes, damaging local and global infrastructure, human health, and total productivity. Energy consumption has mounted GHGs levels concerning warming temperatures as most of the energy production in developing countries comes from fossil fuels (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2022 ; Usman et al. 2022b ; Abbass et al. 2021a ; Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Furuya  2022 ).

This review aims to highlight the effects of climate change in a socio-scientific aspect by analyzing the existing literature on various sectorial pieces of evidence globally that influence the environment. Although this review provides a thorough examination of climate change and its severe affected sectors that pose a grave danger for global agriculture, biodiversity, health, economy, forestry, and tourism, and to purpose some practical prophylactic measures and mitigation strategies to be adapted as sound substitutes to survive from climate change (CC) impacts. The societal implications of irregular weather patterns and other effects of climate changes are discussed in detail. Some numerous sustainable mitigation measures and adaptation practices and techniques at the global level are discussed in this review with an in-depth focus on its economic, social, and environmental aspects. Methods of data collection section are included in the supplementary information.

Review methodology

Related study and its objectives.

Today, we live an ordinary life in the beautiful digital, globalized world where climate change has a decisive role. What happens in one country has a massive influence on geographically far apart countries, which points to the current crisis known as COVID-19 (Sarkar et al.  2021 ). The most dangerous disease like COVID-19 has affected the world’s climate changes and economic conditions (Abbass et al. 2022 ; Pirasteh-Anosheh et al.  2021 ). The purpose of the present study is to review the status of research on the subject, which is based on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures” by systematically reviewing past published and unpublished research work. Furthermore, the current study seeks to comment on research on the same topic and suggest future research on the same topic. Specifically, the present study aims: The first one is, organize publications to make them easy and quick to find. Secondly, to explore issues in this area, propose an outline of research for future work. The third aim of the study is to synthesize the previous literature on climate change, various sectors, and their mitigation measurement. Lastly , classify the articles according to the different methods and procedures that have been adopted.

Review methodology for reviewers

This review-based article followed systematic literature review techniques that have proved the literature review as a rigorous framework (Benita  2021 ; Tranfield et al.  2003 ). Moreover, we illustrate in Fig.  1 the search method that we have started for this research. First, finalized the research theme to search literature (Cooper et al.  2018 ). Second, used numerous research databases to search related articles and download from the database (Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus Index Journals, Emerald, Elsevier Science Direct, Springer, and Sciverse). We focused on various articles, with research articles, feedback pieces, short notes, debates, and review articles published in scholarly journals. Reports used to search for multiple keywords such as “Climate Change,” “Mitigation and Adaptation,” “Department of Agriculture and Human Health,” “Department of Biodiversity and Forestry,” etc.; in summary, keyword list and full text have been made. Initially, the search for keywords yielded a large amount of literature.

Methodology search for finalized articles for investigations.

Source : constructed by authors

Since 2020, it has been impossible to review all the articles found; some restrictions have been set for the literature exhibition. The study searched 95 articles on a different database mentioned above based on the nature of the study. It excluded 40 irrelevant papers due to copied from a previous search after readings tiles, abstract and full pieces. The criteria for inclusion were: (i) articles focused on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures,” and (ii) the search key terms related to study requirements. The complete procedure yielded 55 articles for our study. We repeat our search on the “Web of Science and Google Scholars” database to enhance the search results and check the referenced articles.

In this study, 55 articles are reviewed systematically and analyzed for research topics and other aspects, such as the methods, contexts, and theories used in these studies. Furthermore, this study analyzes closely related areas to provide unique research opportunities in the future. The study also discussed future direction opportunities and research questions by understanding the research findings climate changes and other affected sectors. The reviewed paper framework analysis process is outlined in Fig.  2 .

Framework of the analysis Process.

Natural disasters and climate change’s socio-economic consequences

Natural and environmental disasters can be highly variable from year to year; some years pass with very few deaths before a significant disaster event claims many lives (Symanski et al.  2021 ). Approximately 60,000 people globally died from natural disasters each year on average over the past decade (Ritchie and Roser  2014 ; Wiranata and Simbolon  2021 ). So, according to the report, around 0.1% of global deaths. Annual variability in the number and share of deaths from natural disasters in recent decades are shown in Fig.  3 . The number of fatalities can be meager—sometimes less than 10,000, and as few as 0.01% of all deaths. But shock events have a devastating impact: the 1983–1985 famine and drought in Ethiopia; the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami; Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in 2008; and the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake in Haiti and now recent example is COVID-19 pandemic (Erman et al.  2021 ). These events pushed global disaster deaths to over 200,000—more than 0.4% of deaths in these years. Low-frequency, high-impact events such as earthquakes and tsunamis are not preventable, but such high losses of human life are. Historical evidence shows that earlier disaster detection, more robust infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and response programmers have substantially reduced disaster deaths worldwide. Low-income is also the most vulnerable to disasters; improving living conditions, facilities, and response services in these areas would be critical in reducing natural disaster deaths in the coming decades.

Global deaths from natural disasters, 1978 to 2020.

Source EMDAT ( 2020 )

The interior regions of the continent are likely to be impacted by rising temperatures (Dimri et al.  2018 ; Goes et al.  2020 ; Mannig et al.  2018 ; Schuurmans  2021 ). Weather patterns change due to the shortage of natural resources (water), increase in glacier melting, and rising mercury are likely to cause extinction to many planted species (Gampe et al.  2016 ; Mihiretu et al.  2021 ; Shaffril et al.  2018 ).On the other hand, the coastal ecosystem is on the verge of devastation (Perera et al.  2018 ; Phillips  2018 ). The temperature rises, insect disease outbreaks, health-related problems, and seasonal and lifestyle changes are persistent, with a strong probability of these patterns continuing in the future (Abbass et al. 2021c ; Hussain et al.  2018 ). At the global level, a shortage of good infrastructure and insufficient adaptive capacity are hammering the most (IPCC  2013 ). In addition to the above concerns, a lack of environmental education and knowledge, outdated consumer behavior, a scarcity of incentives, a lack of legislation, and the government’s lack of commitment to climate change contribute to the general public’s concerns. By 2050, a 2 to 3% rise in mercury and a drastic shift in rainfall patterns may have serious consequences (Huang et al. 2022 ; Gorst et al.  2018 ). Natural and environmental calamities caused huge losses globally, such as decreased agriculture outputs, rehabilitation of the system, and rebuilding necessary technologies (Ali and Erenstein  2017 ; Ramankutty et al.  2018 ; Yu et al.  2021 ) (Table ​ (Table1). 1 ). Furthermore, in the last 3 or 4 years, the world has been plagued by smog-related eye and skin diseases, as well as a rise in road accidents due to poor visibility.

Main natural danger statistics for 1985–2020 at the global level

Source: EM-DAT ( 2020 )

Climate change and agriculture

Global agriculture is the ultimate sector responsible for 30–40% of all greenhouse emissions, which makes it a leading industry predominantly contributing to climate warming and significantly impacted by it (Grieg; Mishra et al.  2021 ; Ortiz et al.  2021 ; Thornton and Lipper  2014 ). Numerous agro-environmental and climatic factors that have a dominant influence on agriculture productivity (Pautasso et al.  2012 ) are significantly impacted in response to precipitation extremes including floods, forest fires, and droughts (Huang  2004 ). Besides, the immense dependency on exhaustible resources also fuels the fire and leads global agriculture to become prone to devastation. Godfray et al. ( 2010 ) mentioned that decline in agriculture challenges the farmer’s quality of life and thus a significant factor to poverty as the food and water supplies are critically impacted by CC (Ortiz et al.  2021 ; Rosenzweig et al.  2014 ). As an essential part of the economic systems, especially in developing countries, agricultural systems affect the overall economy and potentially the well-being of households (Schlenker and Roberts  2009 ). According to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, i.e., CH 4, CO 2 , and N 2 O, are increased in the air to extraordinary levels over the last few centuries (Usman and Makhdum 2021 ; Stocker et al.  2013 ). Climate change is the composite outcome of two different factors. The first is the natural causes, and the second is the anthropogenic actions (Karami 2012 ). It is also forecasted that the world may experience a typical rise in temperature stretching from 1 to 3.7 °C at the end of this century (Pachauri et al. 2014 ). The world’s crop production is also highly vulnerable to these global temperature-changing trends as raised temperatures will pose severe negative impacts on crop growth (Reidsma et al. 2009 ). Some of the recent modeling about the fate of global agriculture is briefly described below.

Decline in cereal productivity

Crop productivity will also be affected dramatically in the next few decades due to variations in integral abiotic factors such as temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and CO 2 . These all factors are included in various regulatory instruments like progress and growth, weather-tempted changes, pest invasions (Cammell and Knight 1992 ), accompanying disease snags (Fand et al. 2012 ), water supplies (Panda et al. 2003 ), high prices of agro-products in world’s agriculture industry, and preeminent quantity of fertilizer consumption. Lobell and field ( 2007 ) claimed that from 1962 to 2002, wheat crop output had condensed significantly due to rising temperatures. Therefore, during 1980–2011, the common wheat productivity trends endorsed extreme temperature events confirmed by Gourdji et al. ( 2013 ) around South Asia, South America, and Central Asia. Various other studies (Asseng, Cao, Zhang, and Ludwig 2009 ; Asseng et al. 2013 ; García et al. 2015 ; Ortiz et al. 2021 ) also proved that wheat output is negatively affected by the rising temperatures and also caused adverse effects on biomass productivity (Calderini et al. 1999 ; Sadras and Slafer 2012 ). Hereafter, the rice crop is also influenced by the high temperatures at night. These difficulties will worsen because the temperature will be rising further in the future owing to CC (Tebaldi et al. 2006 ). Another research conducted in China revealed that a 4.6% of rice production per 1 °C has happened connected with the advancement in night temperatures (Tao et al. 2006 ). Moreover, the average night temperature growth also affected rice indicia cultivar’s output pragmatically during 25 years in the Philippines (Peng et al. 2004 ). It is anticipated that the increase in world average temperature will also cause a substantial reduction in yield (Hatfield et al. 2011 ; Lobell and Gourdji 2012 ). In the southern hemisphere, Parry et al. ( 2007 ) noted a rise of 1–4 °C in average daily temperatures at the end of spring season unti the middle of summers, and this raised temperature reduced crop output by cutting down the time length for phenophases eventually reduce the yield (Hatfield and Prueger 2015 ; R. Ortiz 2008 ). Also, world climate models have recommended that humid and subtropical regions expect to be plentiful prey to the upcoming heat strokes (Battisti and Naylor 2009 ). Grain production is the amalgamation of two constituents: the average weight and the grain output/m 2 , however, in crop production. Crop output is mainly accredited to the grain quantity (Araus et al. 2008 ; Gambín and Borrás 2010 ). In the times of grain set, yield resources are mainly strewn between hitherto defined components, i.e., grain usual weight and grain output, which presents a trade-off between them (Gambín and Borrás 2010 ) beside disparities in per grain integration (B. L. Gambín et al. 2006 ). In addition to this, the maize crop is also susceptible to raised temperatures, principally in the flowering stage (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). In reality, the lower grain number is associated with insufficient acclimatization due to intense photosynthesis and higher respiration and the high-temperature effect on the reproduction phenomena (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). During the flowering phase, maize visible to heat (30–36 °C) seemed less anthesis-silking intermissions (Edreira et al. 2011 ). Another research by Dupuis and Dumas ( 1990 ) proved that a drop in spikelet when directly visible to high temperatures above 35 °C in vitro pollination. Abnormalities in kernel number claimed by Vega et al. ( 2001 ) is related to conceded plant development during a flowering phase that is linked with the active ear growth phase and categorized as a critical phase for approximation of kernel number during silking (Otegui and Bonhomme 1998 ).

The retort of rice output to high temperature presents disparities in flowering patterns, and seed set lessens and lessens grain weight (Qasim et al. 2020 ; Qasim, Hammad, Maqsood, Tariq, & Chawla). During the daytime, heat directly impacts flowers which lessens the thesis period and quickens the earlier peak flowering (Tao et al. 2006 ). Antagonistic effect of higher daytime temperature d on pollen sprouting proposed seed set decay, whereas, seed set was lengthily reduced than could be explicated by pollen growing at high temperatures 40◦C (Matsui et al. 2001 ).

The decline in wheat output is linked with higher temperatures, confirmed in numerous studies (Semenov 2009 ; Stone and Nicolas 1994 ). High temperatures fast-track the arrangements of plant expansion (Blum et al. 2001 ), diminution photosynthetic process (Salvucci and Crafts‐Brandner 2004 ), and also considerably affect the reproductive operations (Farooq et al. 2011 ).

The destructive impacts of CC induced weather extremes to deteriorate the integrity of crops (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ), e.g., Spartan cold and extreme fog cause falling and discoloration of betel leaves (Rosenzweig et al. 2001 ), giving them a somehow reddish appearance, squeezing of lemon leaves (Pautasso et al. 2012 ), as well as root rot of pineapple, have reported (Vedwan and Rhoades 2001 ). Henceforth, in tackling the disruptive effects of CC, several short-term and long-term management approaches are the crucial need of time (Fig.  4 ). Moreover, various studies (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ; Patz et al. 2005 ; Pautasso et al. 2012 ) have demonstrated adapting trends such as ameliorating crop diversity can yield better adaptability towards CC.

Schematic description of potential impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and the appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to overcome its impact.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity

Global biodiversity is among the severe victims of CC because it is the fastest emerging cause of species loss. Studies demonstrated that the massive scale species dynamics are considerably associated with diverse climatic events (Abraham and Chain 1988 ; Manes et al. 2021 ; A. M. D. Ortiz et al. 2021 ). Both the pace and magnitude of CC are altering the compatible habitat ranges for living entities of marine, freshwater, and terrestrial regions. Alterations in general climate regimes influence the integrity of ecosystems in numerous ways, such as variation in the relative abundance of species, range shifts, changes in activity timing, and microhabitat use (Bates et al. 2014 ). The geographic distribution of any species often depends upon its ability to tolerate environmental stresses, biological interactions, and dispersal constraints. Hence, instead of the CC, the local species must only accept, adapt, move, or face extinction (Berg et al. 2010 ). So, the best performer species have a better survival capacity for adjusting to new ecosystems or a decreased perseverance to survive where they are already situated (Bates et al. 2014 ). An important aspect here is the inadequate habitat connectivity and access to microclimates, also crucial in raising the exposure to climate warming and extreme heatwave episodes. For example, the carbon sequestration rates are undergoing fluctuations due to climate-driven expansion in the range of global mangroves (Cavanaugh et al. 2014 ).

Similarly, the loss of kelp-forest ecosystems in various regions and its occupancy by the seaweed turfs has set the track for elevated herbivory by the high influx of tropical fish populations. Not only this, the increased water temperatures have exacerbated the conditions far away from the physiological tolerance level of the kelp communities (Vergés et al. 2016 ; Wernberg et al. 2016 ). Another pertinent danger is the devastation of keystone species, which even has more pervasive effects on the entire communities in that habitat (Zarnetske et al. 2012 ). It is particularly important as CC does not specify specific populations or communities. Eventually, this CC-induced redistribution of species may deteriorate carbon storage and the net ecosystem productivity (Weed et al. 2013 ). Among the typical disruptions, the prominent ones include impacts on marine and terrestrial productivity, marine community assembly, and the extended invasion of toxic cyanobacteria bloom (Fossheim et al. 2015 ).

The CC-impacted species extinction is widely reported in the literature (Beesley et al. 2019 ; Urban 2015 ), and the predictions of demise until the twenty-first century are dreadful (Abbass et al. 2019 ; Pereira et al. 2013 ). In a few cases, northward shifting of species may not be formidable as it allows mountain-dwelling species to find optimum climates. However, the migrant species may be trapped in isolated and incompatible habitats due to losing topography and range (Dullinger et al. 2012 ). For example, a study indicated that the American pika has been extirpated or intensely diminished in some regions, primarily attributed to the CC-impacted extinction or at least local extirpation (Stewart et al. 2015 ). Besides, the anticipation of persistent responses to the impacts of CC often requires data records of several decades to rigorously analyze the critical pre and post CC patterns at species and ecosystem levels (Manes et al. 2021 ; Testa et al. 2018 ).

Nonetheless, the availability of such long-term data records is rare; hence, attempts are needed to focus on these profound aspects. Biodiversity is also vulnerable to the other associated impacts of CC, such as rising temperatures, droughts, and certain invasive pest species. For instance, a study revealed the changes in the composition of plankton communities attributed to rising temperatures. Henceforth, alterations in such aquatic producer communities, i.e., diatoms and calcareous plants, can ultimately lead to variation in the recycling of biological carbon. Moreover, such changes are characterized as a potential contributor to CO 2 differences between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods (Kohfeld et al. 2005 ).

Climate change implications on human health

It is an understood corporality that human health is a significant victim of CC (Costello et al. 2009 ). According to the WHO, CC might be responsible for 250,000 additional deaths per year during 2030–2050 (Watts et al. 2015 ). These deaths are attributed to extreme weather-induced mortality and morbidity and the global expansion of vector-borne diseases (Lemery et al. 2021; Yang and Usman 2021 ; Meierrieks 2021 ; UNEP 2017 ). Here, some of the emerging health issues pertinent to this global problem are briefly described.

Climate change and antimicrobial resistance with corresponding economic costs

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an up-surging complex global health challenge (Garner et al. 2019 ; Lemery et al. 2021 ). Health professionals across the globe are extremely worried due to this phenomenon that has critical potential to reverse almost all the progress that has been achieved so far in the health discipline (Gosling and Arnell 2016 ). A massive amount of antibiotics is produced by many pharmaceutical industries worldwide, and the pathogenic microorganisms are gradually developing resistance to them, which can be comprehended how strongly this aspect can shake the foundations of national and global economies (UNEP 2017 ). This statement is supported by the fact that AMR is not developing in a particular region or country. Instead, it is flourishing in every continent of the world (WHO 2018 ). This plague is heavily pushing humanity to the post-antibiotic era, in which currently antibiotic-susceptible pathogens will once again lead to certain endemics and pandemics after being resistant(WHO 2018 ). Undesirably, if this statement would become a factuality, there might emerge certain risks in undertaking sophisticated interventions such as chemotherapy, joint replacement cases, and organ transplantation (Su et al. 2018 ). Presently, the amplification of drug resistance cases has made common illnesses like pneumonia, post-surgical infections, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, etc., too difficult and costly to be treated or cure well (WHO 2018 ). From a simple example, it can be assumed how easily antibiotic-resistant strains can be transmitted from one person to another and ultimately travel across the boundaries (Berendonk et al. 2015 ). Talking about the second- and third-generation classes of antibiotics, e.g., most renowned generations of cephalosporin antibiotics that are more expensive, broad-spectrum, more toxic, and usually require more extended periods whenever prescribed to patients (Lemery et al. 2021 ; Pärnänen et al. 2019 ). This scenario has also revealed that the abundance of resistant strains of pathogens was also higher in the Southern part (WHO 2018 ). As southern parts are generally warmer than their counterparts, it is evident from this example how CC-induced global warming can augment the spread of antibiotic-resistant strains within the biosphere, eventually putting additional economic burden in the face of developing new and costlier antibiotics. The ARG exchange to susceptible bacteria through one of the potential mechanisms, transformation, transduction, and conjugation; Selection pressure can be caused by certain antibiotics, metals or pesticides, etc., as shown in Fig.  5 .

A typical interaction between the susceptible and resistant strains.

Source: Elsayed et al. ( 2021 ); Karkman et al. ( 2018 )

Certain studies highlighted that conventional urban wastewater treatment plants are typical hotspots where most bacterial strains exchange genetic material through horizontal gene transfer (Fig.  5 ). Although at present, the extent of risks associated with the antibiotic resistance found in wastewater is complicated; environmental scientists and engineers have particular concerns about the potential impacts of these antibiotic resistance genes on human health (Ashbolt 2015 ). At most undesirable and worst case, these antibiotic-resistant genes containing bacteria can make their way to enter into the environment (Pruden et al. 2013 ), irrigation water used for crops and public water supplies and ultimately become a part of food chains and food webs (Ma et al. 2019 ; D. Wu et al. 2019 ). This problem has been reported manifold in several countries (Hendriksen et al. 2019 ), where wastewater as a means of irrigated water is quite common.

Climate change and vector borne-diseases

Temperature is a fundamental factor for the sustenance of living entities regardless of an ecosystem. So, a specific living being, especially a pathogen, requires a sophisticated temperature range to exist on earth. The second essential component of CC is precipitation, which also impacts numerous infectious agents’ transport and dissemination patterns. Global rising temperature is a significant cause of many species extinction. On the one hand, this changing environmental temperature may be causing species extinction, and on the other, this warming temperature might favor the thriving of some new organisms. Here, it was evident that some pathogens may also upraise once non-evident or reported (Patz et al. 2000 ). This concept can be exemplified through certain pathogenic strains of microorganisms that how the likelihood of various diseases increases in response to climate warming-induced environmental changes (Table ​ (Table2 2 ).

Examples of how various environmental changes affect various infectious diseases in humans

Source: Aron and Patz ( 2001 )

A recent example is an outburst of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Republic of China, causing pneumonia and severe acute respiratory complications (Cui et al. 2021 ; Song et al. 2021 ). The large family of viruses is harbored in numerous animals, bats, and snakes in particular (livescience.com) with the subsequent transfer into human beings. Hence, it is worth noting that the thriving of numerous vectors involved in spreading various diseases is influenced by Climate change (Ogden 2018 ; Santos et al. 2021 ).

Psychological impacts of climate change

Climate change (CC) is responsible for the rapid dissemination and exaggeration of certain epidemics and pandemics. In addition to the vast apparent impacts of climate change on health, forestry, agriculture, etc., it may also have psychological implications on vulnerable societies. It can be exemplified through the recent outburst of (COVID-19) in various countries around the world (Pal 2021 ). Besides, the victims of this viral infection have made healthy beings scarier and terrified. In the wake of such epidemics, people with common colds or fever are also frightened and must pass specific regulatory protocols. Living in such situations continuously terrifies the public and makes the stress familiar, which eventually makes them psychologically weak (npr.org).

CC boosts the extent of anxiety, distress, and other issues in public, pushing them to develop various mental-related problems. Besides, frequent exposure to extreme climatic catastrophes such as geological disasters also imprints post-traumatic disorder, and their ubiquitous occurrence paves the way to developing chronic psychological dysfunction. Moreover, repetitive listening from media also causes an increase in the person’s stress level (Association 2020 ). Similarly, communities living in flood-prone areas constantly live in extreme fear of drowning and die by floods. In addition to human lives, the flood-induced destruction of physical infrastructure is a specific reason for putting pressure on these communities (Ogden 2018 ). For instance, Ogden ( 2018 ) comprehensively denoted that Katrina’s Hurricane augmented the mental health issues in the victim communities.

Climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Forests are the global regulators of the world’s climate (FAO 2018 ) and have an indispensable role in regulating global carbon and nitrogen cycles (Rehman et al. 2021 ; Reichstein and Carvalhais 2019 ). Hence, disturbances in forest ecology affect the micro and macro-climates (Ellison et al. 2017 ). Climate warming, in return, has profound impacts on the growth and productivity of transboundary forests by influencing the temperature and precipitation patterns, etc. As CC induces specific changes in the typical structure and functions of ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2017 ) as well impacts forest health, climate change also has several devastating consequences such as forest fires, droughts, pest outbreaks (EPA 2018 ), and last but not the least is the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. The rising frequency and intensity of another CC product, i.e., droughts, pose plenty of challenges to the well-being of global forests (Diffenbaugh et al. 2017 ), which is further projected to increase soon (Hartmann et al. 2018 ; Lehner et al. 2017 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ). Hence, CC induces storms, with more significant impacts also put extra pressure on the survival of the global forests (Martínez-Alvarado et al. 2018 ), significantly since their influences are augmented during higher winter precipitations with corresponding wetter soils causing weak root anchorage of trees (Brázdil et al. 2018 ). Surging temperature regimes causes alterations in usual precipitation patterns, which is a significant hurdle for the survival of temperate forests (Allen et al. 2010 ; Flannigan et al. 2013 ), letting them encounter severe stress and disturbances which adversely affects the local tree species (Hubbart et al. 2016 ; Millar and Stephenson 2015 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ).

Climate change impacts on forest-dependent communities

Forests are the fundamental livelihood resource for about 1.6 billion people worldwide; out of them, 350 million are distinguished with relatively higher reliance (Bank 2008 ). Agro-forestry-dependent communities comprise 1.2 billion, and 60 million indigenous people solely rely on forests and their products to sustain their lives (Sunderlin et al. 2005 ). For example, in the entire African continent, more than 2/3rd of inhabitants depend on forest resources and woodlands for their alimonies, e.g., food, fuelwood and grazing (Wasiq and Ahmad 2004 ). The livings of these people are more intensely affected by the climatic disruptions making their lives harder (Brown et al. 2014 ). On the one hand, forest communities are incredibly vulnerable to CC due to their livelihoods, cultural and spiritual ties as well as socio-ecological connections, and on the other, they are not familiar with the term “climate change.” (Rahman and Alam 2016 ). Among the destructive impacts of temperature and rainfall, disruption of the agroforestry crops with resultant downscale growth and yield (Macchi et al. 2008 ). Cruz ( 2015 ) ascribed that forest-dependent smallholder farmers in the Philippines face the enigma of delayed fruiting, more severe damages by insect and pest incidences due to unfavorable temperature regimes, and changed rainfall patterns.

Among these series of challenges to forest communities, their well-being is also distinctly vulnerable to CC. Though the detailed climate change impacts on human health have been comprehensively mentioned in the previous section, some studies have listed a few more devastating effects on the prosperity of forest-dependent communities. For instance, the Himalayan people have been experiencing frequent skin-borne diseases such as malaria and other skin diseases due to increasing mosquitoes, wild boar as well, and new wasps species, particularly in higher altitudes that were almost non-existent before last 5–10 years (Xu et al. 2008 ). Similarly, people living at high altitudes in Bangladesh have experienced frequent mosquito-borne calamities (Fardous; Sharma 2012 ). In addition, the pace of other waterborne diseases such as infectious diarrhea, cholera, pathogenic induced abdominal complications and dengue has also been boosted in other distinguished regions of Bangladesh (Cell 2009 ; Gunter et al. 2008 ).

Pest outbreak

Upscaling hotter climate may positively affect the mobile organisms with shorter generation times because they can scurry from harsh conditions than the immobile species (Fettig et al. 2013 ; Schoene and Bernier 2012 ) and are also relatively more capable of adapting to new environments (Jactel et al. 2019 ). It reveals that insects adapt quickly to global warming due to their mobility advantages. Due to past outbreaks, the trees (forests) are relatively more susceptible victims (Kurz et al. 2008 ). Before CC, the influence of factors mentioned earlier, i.e., droughts and storms, was existent and made the forests susceptible to insect pest interventions; however, the global forests remain steadfast, assiduous, and green (Jactel et al. 2019 ). The typical reasons could be the insect herbivores were regulated by several tree defenses and pressures of predation (Wilkinson and Sherratt 2016 ). As climate greatly influences these phenomena, the global forests cannot be so sedulous against such challenges (Jactel et al. 2019 ). Table ​ Table3 3 demonstrates some of the particular considerations with practical examples that are essential while mitigating the impacts of CC in the forestry sector.

Essential considerations while mitigating the climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Source : Fischer ( 2019 )

Climate change impacts on tourism

Tourism is a commercial activity that has roots in multi-dimensions and an efficient tool with adequate job generation potential, revenue creation, earning of spectacular foreign exchange, enhancement in cross-cultural promulgation and cooperation, a business tool for entrepreneurs and eventually for the country’s national development (Arshad et al. 2018 ; Scott 2021 ). Among a plethora of other disciplines, the tourism industry is also a distinct victim of climate warming (Gössling et al. 2012 ; Hall et al. 2015 ) as the climate is among the essential resources that enable tourism in particular regions as most preferred locations. Different places at different times of the year attract tourists both within and across the countries depending upon the feasibility and compatibility of particular weather patterns. Hence, the massive variations in these weather patterns resulting from CC will eventually lead to monumental challenges to the local economy in that specific area’s particular and national economy (Bujosa et al. 2015 ). For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report demonstrated that the global tourism industry had faced a considerable decline in the duration of ski season, including the loss of some ski areas and the dramatic shifts in tourist destinations’ climate warming.

Furthermore, different studies (Neuvonen et al. 2015 ; Scott et al. 2004 ) indicated that various currently perfect tourist spots, e.g., coastal areas, splendid islands, and ski resorts, will suffer consequences of CC. It is also worth noting that the quality and potential of administrative management potential to cope with the influence of CC on the tourism industry is of crucial significance, which renders specific strengths of resiliency to numerous destinations to withstand against it (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). Similarly, in the partial or complete absence of adequate socio-economic and socio-political capital, the high-demanding tourist sites scurry towards the verge of vulnerability. The susceptibility of tourism is based on different components such as the extent of exposure, sensitivity, life-supporting sectors, and capacity assessment factors (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). It is obvious corporality that sectors such as health, food, ecosystems, human habitat, infrastructure, water availability, and the accessibility of a particular region are prone to CC. Henceforth, the sensitivity of these critical sectors to CC and, in return, the adaptive measures are a hallmark in determining the composite vulnerability of climate warming (Ionescu et al. 2009 ).

Moreover, the dependence on imported food items, poor hygienic conditions, and inadequate health professionals are dominant aspects affecting the local terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. Meanwhile, the greater dependency on ecosystem services and its products also makes a destination more fragile to become a prey of CC (Rizvi et al. 2015 ). Some significant non-climatic factors are important indicators of a particular ecosystem’s typical health and functioning, e.g., resource richness and abundance portray the picture of ecosystem stability. Similarly, the species abundance is also a productive tool that ensures that the ecosystem has a higher buffering capacity, which is terrific in terms of resiliency (Roscher et al. 2013 ).

Climate change impacts on the economic sector

Climate plays a significant role in overall productivity and economic growth. Due to its increasingly global existence and its effect on economic growth, CC has become one of the major concerns of both local and international environmental policymakers (Ferreira et al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Abbass et al. 2021b ; Lamperti et al. 2021 ). The adverse effects of CC on the overall productivity factor of the agricultural sector are therefore significant for understanding the creation of local adaptation policies and the composition of productive climate policy contracts. Previous studies on CC in the world have already forecasted its effects on the agricultural sector. Researchers have found that global CC will impact the agricultural sector in different world regions. The study of the impacts of CC on various agrarian activities in other demographic areas and the development of relative strategies to respond to effects has become a focal point for researchers (Chandioet al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Mosavi et al. 2020 ).

With the rapid growth of global warming since the 1980s, the temperature has started increasing globally, which resulted in the incredible transformation of rain and evaporation in the countries. The agricultural development of many countries has been reliant, delicate, and susceptible to CC for a long time, and it is on the development of agriculture total factor productivity (ATFP) influence different crops and yields of farmers (Alhassan 2021 ; Wu  2020 ).

Food security and natural disasters are increasing rapidly in the world. Several major climatic/natural disasters have impacted local crop production in the countries concerned. The effects of these natural disasters have been poorly controlled by the development of the economies and populations and may affect human life as well. One example is China, which is among the world’s most affected countries, vulnerable to natural disasters due to its large population, harsh environmental conditions, rapid CC, low environmental stability, and disaster power. According to the January 2016 statistical survey, China experienced an economic loss of 298.3 billion Yuan, and about 137 million Chinese people were severely affected by various natural disasters (Xie et al. 2018 ).

Mitigation and adaptation strategies of climate changes

Adaptation and mitigation are the crucial factors to address the response to CC (Jahanzad et al. 2020 ). Researchers define mitigation on climate changes, and on the other hand, adaptation directly impacts climate changes like floods. To some extent, mitigation reduces or moderates greenhouse gas emission, and it becomes a critical issue both economically and environmentally (Botzen et al. 2021 ; Jahanzad et al. 2020 ; Kongsager 2018 ; Smit et al. 2000 ; Vale et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2021 ; Verheyen 2005 ).

Researchers have deep concern about the adaptation and mitigation methodologies in sectoral and geographical contexts. Agriculture, industry, forestry, transport, and land use are the main sectors to adapt and mitigate policies(Kärkkäinen et al. 2020 ; Waheed et al. 2021 ). Adaptation and mitigation require particular concern both at the national and international levels. The world has faced a significant problem of climate change in the last decades, and adaptation to these effects is compulsory for economic and social development. To adapt and mitigate against CC, one should develop policies and strategies at the international level (Hussain et al. 2020 ). Figure  6 depicts the list of current studies on sectoral impacts of CC with adaptation and mitigation measures globally.

Sectoral impacts of climate change with adaptation and mitigation measures.

Conclusion and future perspectives

Specific socio-agricultural, socio-economic, and physical systems are the cornerstone of psychological well-being, and the alteration in these systems by CC will have disastrous impacts. Climate variability, alongside other anthropogenic and natural stressors, influences human and environmental health sustainability. Food security is another concerning scenario that may lead to compromised food quality, higher food prices, and inadequate food distribution systems. Global forests are challenged by different climatic factors such as storms, droughts, flash floods, and intense precipitation. On the other hand, their anthropogenic wiping is aggrandizing their existence. Undoubtedly, the vulnerability scale of the world’s regions differs; however, appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures can aid the decision-making bodies in developing effective policies to tackle its impacts. Presently, modern life on earth has tailored to consistent climatic patterns, and accordingly, adapting to such considerable variations is of paramount importance. Because the faster changes in climate will make it harder to survive and adjust, this globally-raising enigma calls for immediate attention at every scale ranging from elementary community level to international level. Still, much effort, research, and dedication are required, which is the most critical time. Some policy implications can help us to mitigate the consequences of climate change, especially the most affected sectors like the agriculture sector;

Warming might lengthen the season in frost-prone growing regions (temperate and arctic zones), allowing for longer-maturing seasonal cultivars with better yields (Pfadenhauer 2020 ; Bonacci 2019 ). Extending the planting season may allow additional crops each year; when warming leads to frequent warmer months highs over critical thresholds, a split season with a brief summer fallow may be conceivable for short-period crops such as wheat barley, cereals, and many other vegetable crops. The capacity to prolong the planting season in tropical and subtropical places where the harvest season is constrained by precipitation or agriculture farming occurs after the year may be more limited and dependent on how precipitation patterns vary (Wu et al. 2017 ).

The genetic component is comprehensive for many yields, but it is restricted like kiwi fruit for a few. Ali et al. ( 2017 ) investigated how new crops will react to climatic changes (also stated in Mall et al. 2017 ). Hot temperature, drought, insect resistance; salt tolerance; and overall crop production and product quality increases would all be advantageous (Akkari 2016 ). Genetic mapping and engineering can introduce a greater spectrum of features. The adoption of genetically altered cultivars has been slowed, particularly in the early forecasts owing to the complexity in ensuring features are expediently expressed throughout the entire plant, customer concerns, economic profitability, and regulatory impediments (Wirehn 2018 ; Davidson et al. 2016 ).

To get the full benefit of the CO 2 would certainly require additional nitrogen and other fertilizers. Nitrogen not consumed by the plants may be excreted into groundwater, discharged into water surface, or emitted from the land, soil nitrous oxide when large doses of fertilizer are sprayed. Increased nitrogen levels in groundwater sources have been related to human chronic illnesses and impact marine ecosystems. Cultivation, grain drying, and other field activities have all been examined in depth in the studies (Barua et al. 2018 ).

• The technological and socio-economic adaptation

The policy consequence of the causative conclusion is that as a source of alternative energy, biofuel production is one of the routes that explain oil price volatility separate from international macroeconomic factors. Even though biofuel production has just begun in a few sample nations, there is still a tremendous worldwide need for feedstock to satisfy industrial expansion in China and the USA, which explains the food price relationship to the global oil price. Essentially, oil-exporting countries may create incentives in their economies to increase food production. It may accomplish by giving farmers financing, seedlings, fertilizers, and farming equipment. Because of the declining global oil price and, as a result, their earnings from oil export, oil-producing nations may be unable to subsidize food imports even in the near term. As a result, these countries can boost the agricultural value chain for export. It may be accomplished through R&D and adding value to their food products to increase income by correcting exchange rate misalignment and adverse trade terms. These nations may also diversify their economies away from oil, as dependence on oil exports alone is no longer economically viable given the extreme volatility of global oil prices. Finally, resource-rich and oil-exporting countries can convert to non-food renewable energy sources such as solar, hydro, coal, wind, wave, and tidal energy. By doing so, both world food and oil supplies would be maintained rather than harmed.

IRENA’s modeling work shows that, if a comprehensive policy framework is in place, efforts toward decarbonizing the energy future will benefit economic activity, jobs (outweighing losses in the fossil fuel industry), and welfare. Countries with weak domestic supply chains and a large reliance on fossil fuel income, in particular, must undertake structural reforms to capitalize on the opportunities inherent in the energy transition. Governments continue to give major policy assistance to extract fossil fuels, including tax incentives, financing, direct infrastructure expenditures, exemptions from environmental regulations, and other measures. The majority of major oil and gas producing countries intend to increase output. Some countries intend to cut coal output, while others plan to maintain or expand it. While some nations are beginning to explore and execute policies aimed at a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel production, these efforts have yet to impact major producing countries’ plans and goals. Verifiable and comparable data on fossil fuel output and assistance from governments and industries are critical to closing the production gap. Governments could increase openness by declaring their production intentions in their climate obligations under the Paris Agreement.

It is firmly believed that achieving the Paris Agreement commitments is doubtlful without undergoing renewable energy transition across the globe (Murshed 2020 ; Zhao et al. 2022 ). Policy instruments play the most important role in determining the degree of investment in renewable energy technology. This study examines the efficacy of various policy strategies in the renewable energy industry of multiple nations. Although its impact is more visible in established renewable energy markets, a renewable portfolio standard is also a useful policy instrument. The cost of producing renewable energy is still greater than other traditional energy sources. Furthermore, government incentives in the R&D sector can foster innovation in this field, resulting in cost reductions in the renewable energy industry. These nations may export their technologies and share their policy experiences by forming networks among their renewable energy-focused organizations. All policy measures aim to reduce production costs while increasing the proportion of renewables to a country’s energy system. Meanwhile, long-term contracts with renewable energy providers, government commitment and control, and the establishment of long-term goals can assist developing nations in deploying renewable energy technology in their energy sector.

Author contribution

KA: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Study design, Formal analysis, Visualization, Revised draft, Writing-review, and editing. MZQ: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Writing-review, and editing. HS: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, Conceptualization, Validation, Supervision, literature review, Revised drapt, and writing review and editing. MM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. HM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. IY: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, literature review, and writing review and editing.

Availability of data and material

Declarations.

Not applicable.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Contributor Information

Kashif Abbass, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@ssabbafihsak .

Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim, Email: moc.kooltuo@888misaqnahseez .

Huaming Song, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@gnimauh .

Muntasir Murshed, Email: [email protected] .

Haider Mahmood, Email: moc.liamtoh@doomhamrediah .

Ijaz Younis, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@sinuoyzaji .

• Abbass K, Begum H, Alam ASA, Awang AH, Abdelsalam MK, Egdair IMM, Wahid R (2022) Fresh Insight through a Keynesian Theory Approach to Investigate the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan. Sustain 14(3):1054
• Abbass K, Niazi AAK, Qazi TF, Basit A, Song H (2021a) The aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic period: barriers in implementation of social distancing at workplace. Library Hi Tech
• Abbass K, Song H, Khan F, Begum H, Asif M (2021b) Fresh insight through the VAR approach to investigate the effects of fiscal policy on environmental pollution in Pakistan. Environ Scie Poll Res 1–14 [ PubMed ]
• Abbass K, Song H, Shah SM, Aziz B. Determinants of Stock Return for Non-Financial Sector: Evidence from Energy Sector of Pakistan. J Bus Fin Aff. 2019; 8 (370):2167–0234. [ Google Scholar ]
• Abbass K, Tanveer A, Huaming S, Khatiya AA (2021c) Impact of financial resources utilization on firm performance: a case of SMEs working in Pakistan
• Abraham E, Chain E. An enzyme from bacteria able to destroy penicillin. 1940. Rev Infect Dis. 1988; 10 (4):677. [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Adger WN, Arnell NW, Tompkins EL. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob Environ Chang. 2005; 15 (2):77–86. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Akkari C, Bryant CR. The co-construction approach as approach to developing adaptation strategies in the face of climate change and variability: A conceptual framework. Agricultural Research. 2016; 5 (2):162–173. doi: 10.1007/s40003-016-0208-8. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Alhassan H (2021) The effect of agricultural total factor productivity on environmental degradation in sub-Saharan Africa. Sci Afr 12:e00740
• Ali A, Erenstein O. Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Clim Risk Manag. 2017; 16 :183–194. doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2016.12.001. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Hogg ET. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manag. 2010; 259 (4):660–684. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Anwar A, Sinha A, Sharif A, Siddique M, Irshad S, Anwar W, Malik S (2021) The nexus between urbanization, renewable energy consumption, financial development, and CO2 emissions: evidence from selected Asian countries. Environ Dev Sust. 10.1007/s10668-021-01716-2
• Araus JL, Slafer GA, Royo C, Serret MD. Breeding for yield potential and stress adaptation in cereals. Crit Rev Plant Sci. 2008; 27 (6):377–412. doi: 10.1080/07352680802467736. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Aron JL, Patz J (2001) Ecosystem change and public health: a global perspective: JHU Press
• Arshad MI, Iqbal MA, Shahbaz M. Pakistan tourism industry and challenges: a review. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research. 2018; 23 (2):121–132. doi: 10.1080/10941665.2017.1410192. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ashbolt NJ. Microbial contamination of drinking water and human health from community water systems. Current Environmental Health Reports. 2015; 2 (1):95–106. doi: 10.1007/s40572-014-0037-5. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Asseng S, Cao W, Zhang W, Ludwig F (2009) Crop physiology, modelling and climate change: impact and adaptation strategies. Crop Physiol 511–543
• Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL, Ruane AC, Cammarano D. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat Clim Chang. 2013; 3 (9):827–832. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1916. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Association A (2020) Climate change is threatening mental health, American Psychological Association, “Kirsten Weir, . from < https://www.apa.org/monitor/2016/07-08/climate-change >, Accessed on 26 Jan 2020.
• Ayers J, Huq S, Wright H, Faisal A, Hussain S. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development in Bangladesh. Clim Dev. 2014; 6 :293–305. doi: 10.1080/17565529.2014.977761. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Balsalobre-Lorente D, Driha OM, Bekun FV, Sinha A, Adedoyin FF (2020) Consequences of COVID-19 on the social isolation of the Chinese economy: accounting for the role of reduction in carbon emissions. Air Qual Atmos Health 13(12):1439–1451
• Balsalobre-Lorente D, Ibáñez-Luzón L, Usman M, Shahbaz M. The environmental Kuznets curve, based on the economic complexity, and the pollution haven hypothesis in PIIGS countries. Renew Energy. 2022; 185 :1441–1455. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.059. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Bank W (2008) Forests sourcebook: practical guidance for sustaining forests in development cooperation: World Bank
• Barua S, Valenzuela E (2018) Climate change impacts on global agricultural trade patterns: evidence from the past 50 years. In Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Sustainable Development (pp. 26–28)
• Bates AE, Pecl GT, Frusher S, Hobday AJ, Wernberg T, Smale DA, Colwell RK. Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems. Glob Environ Chang. 2014; 26 :27–38. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.009. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Battisti DS, Naylor RL. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science. 2009; 323 (5911):240–244. doi: 10.1126/science.1164363. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Beesley L, Close PG, Gwinn DC, Long M, Moroz M, Koster WM, Storer T. Flow-mediated movement of freshwater catfish, Tandanus bostocki, in a regulated semi-urban river, to inform environmental water releases. Ecol Freshw Fish. 2019; 28 (3):434–445. doi: 10.1111/eff.12466. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Benita F (2021) Human mobility behavior in COVID-19: A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis. Sustain Cities Soc 70:102916 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Berendonk TU, Manaia CM, Merlin C, Fatta-Kassinos D, Cytryn E, Walsh F, Pons M-N. Tackling antibiotic resistance: the environmental framework. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2015; 13 (5):310–317. doi: 10.1038/nrmicro3439. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Berg MP, Kiers ET, Driessen G, Van DerHEIJDEN M, Kooi BW, Kuenen F, Ellers J. Adapt or disperse: understanding species persistence in a changing world. Glob Change Biol. 2010; 16 (2):587–598. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02014.x. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Blum A, Klueva N, Nguyen H. Wheat cellular thermotolerance is related to yield under heat stress. Euphytica. 2001; 117 (2):117–123. doi: 10.1023/A:1004083305905. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Bonacci O. Air temperature and precipitation analyses on a small Mediterranean island: the case of the remote island of Lastovo (Adriatic Sea, Croatia) Acta Hydrotechnica. 2019; 32 (57):135–150. doi: 10.15292/acta.hydro.2019.10. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Botzen W, Duijndam S, van Beukering P (2021) Lessons for climate policy from behavioral biases towards COVID-19 and climate change risks. World Dev 137:105214 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Brázdil R, Stucki P, Szabó P, Řezníčková L, Dolák L, Dobrovolný P, Suchánková S. Windstorms and forest disturbances in the Czech Lands: 1801–2015. Agric for Meteorol. 2018; 250 :47–63. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.11.036. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Brown HCP, Smit B, Somorin OA, Sonwa DJ, Nkem JN. Climate change and forest communities: prospects for building institutional adaptive capacity in the Congo Basin forests. Ambio. 2014; 43 (6):759–769. doi: 10.1007/s13280-014-0493-z. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Bujosa A, Riera A, Torres CM. Valuing tourism demand attributes to guide climate change adaptation measures efficiently: the case of the Spanish domestic travel market. Tour Manage. 2015; 47 :233–239. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.09.023. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Calderini D, Abeledo L, Savin R, Slafer GA. Effect of temperature and carpel size during pre-anthesis on potential grain weight in wheat. J Agric Sci. 1999; 132 (4):453–459. doi: 10.1017/S0021859699006504. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Cammell M, Knight J. Effects of climatic change on the population dynamics of crop pests. Adv Ecol Res. 1992; 22 :117–162. doi: 10.1016/S0065-2504(08)60135-X. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Cavanaugh KC, Kellner JR, Forde AJ, Gruner DS, Parker JD, Rodriguez W, Feller IC. Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2014; 111 (2):723–727. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315800111. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Cell CC (2009) Climate change and health impacts in Bangladesh. Clima Chang Cell DoE MoEF
• Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Rehman A, Rauf A (2020) Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: an empirical evidence from China. Int J Clim Chang Strat Manag
• Chaudhary P, Rai S, Wangdi S, Mao A, Rehman N, Chettri S, Bawa KS (2011) Consistency of local perceptions of climate change in the Kangchenjunga Himalaya landscape. Curr Sci 504–513
• Chien F, Anwar A, Hsu CC, Sharif A, Razzaq A, Sinha A (2021) The role of information and communication technology in encountering environmental degradation: proposing an SDG framework for the BRICS countries. Technol Soc 65:101587
• Cooper C, Booth A, Varley-Campbell J, Britten N, Garside R. Defining the process to literature searching in systematic reviews: a literature review of guidance and supporting studies. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2018; 18 (1):1–14. doi: 10.1186/s12874-018-0545-3. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Costello A, Abbas M, Allen A, Ball S, Bell S, Bellamy R, Kett M. Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission. The Lancet. 2009; 373 (9676):1693–1733. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60935-1. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Cruz DLA (2015) Mother Figured. University of Chicago Press. Retrieved from, 10.7208/9780226315072
• Cui W, Ouyang T, Qiu Y, Cui D (2021) Literature Review of the Implications of Exercise Rehabilitation Strategies for SARS Patients on the Recovery of COVID-19 Patients. Paper presented at the Healthcare [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Davidson D. Gaps in agricultural climate adaptation research. Nat Clim Chang. 2016; 6 (5):433–435. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3007. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Diffenbaugh NS, Singh D, Mankin JS, Horton DE, Swain DL, Touma D, Tsiang M. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2017; 114 (19):4881–4886. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1618082114. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Dimri A, Kumar D, Choudhary A, Maharana P. Future changes over the Himalayas: mean temperature. Global Planet Change. 2018; 162 :235–251. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.01.014. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Dullinger S, Gattringer A, Thuiller W, Moser D, Zimmermann N, Guisan A. Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change. Nat Clim Chang: Nature Publishing Group; 2012. [ Google Scholar ]
• Dupuis I, Dumas C. Influence of temperature stress on in vitro fertilization and heat shock protein synthesis in maize (Zea mays L.) reproductive tissues. Plant Physiol. 1990; 94 (2):665–670. doi: 10.1104/pp.94.2.665. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Edreira JR, Otegui ME. Heat stress in temperate and tropical maize hybrids: a novel approach for assessing sources of kernel loss in field conditions. Field Crop Res. 2013; 142 :58–67. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2012.11.009. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Edreira JR, Carpici EB, Sammarro D, Otegui M. Heat stress effects around flowering on kernel set of temperate and tropical maize hybrids. Field Crop Res. 2011; 123 (2):62–73. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2011.04.015. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ellison D, Morris CE, Locatelli B, Sheil D, Cohen J, Murdiyarso D, Pokorny J. Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world. Glob Environ Chang. 2017; 43 :51–61. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.01.002. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Elsayed ZM, Eldehna WM, Abdel-Aziz MM, El Hassab MA, Elkaeed EB, Al-Warhi T, Mohammed ER. Development of novel isatin–nicotinohydrazide hybrids with potent activity against susceptible/resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis and bronchitis causing–bacteria. J Enzyme Inhib Med Chem. 2021; 36 (1):384–393. doi: 10.1080/14756366.2020.1868450. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• EM-DAT (2020) EMDAT: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université catholique de Louvain – Brussels – Belgium. from http://www.emdat.be
• EPA U (2018) United States Environmental Protection Agency, EPA Year in Review
• Erman A, De Vries Robbe SA, Thies SF, Kabir K, Maruo M (2021) Gender Dimensions of Disaster Risk and Resilience
• Fand BB, Kamble AL, Kumar M. Will climate change pose serious threat to crop pest management: a critical review. Int J Sci Res Publ. 2012; 2 (11):1–14. [ Google Scholar ]
• FAO (2018).The State of the World’s Forests 2018 - Forest Pathways to Sustainable Development.
• Fardous S Perception of climate change in Kaptai National Park. Rural Livelihoods and Protected Landscape: Co-Management in the Wetlands and Forests of Bangladesh, 186–204
• Farooq M, Bramley H, Palta JA, Siddique KH. Heat stress in wheat during reproductive and grain-filling phases. Crit Rev Plant Sci. 2011; 30 (6):491–507. doi: 10.1080/07352689.2011.615687. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Feliciano D, Recha J, Ambaw G, MacSween K, Solomon D, Wollenberg E (2022) Assessment of agricultural emissions, climate change mitigation and adaptation practices in Ethiopia. Clim Policy 1–18
• Ferreira JJ, Fernandes CI, Ferreira FA (2020) Technology transfer, climate change mitigation, and environmental patent impact on sustainability and economic growth: a comparison of European countries. Technol Forecast Soc Change 150:119770
• Fettig CJ, Reid ML, Bentz BJ, Sevanto S, Spittlehouse DL, Wang T. Changing climates, changing forests: a western North American perspective. J Forest. 2013; 111 (3):214–228. doi: 10.5849/jof.12-085. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Fischer AP. Characterizing behavioral adaptation to climate change in temperate forests. Landsc Urban Plan. 2019; 188 :72–79. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.09.024. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Flannigan M, Cantin AS, De Groot WJ, Wotton M, Newbery A, Gowman LM. Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century. For Ecol Manage. 2013; 294 :54–61. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Fossheim M, Primicerio R, Johannesen E, Ingvaldsen RB, Aschan MM, Dolgov AV. Recent warming leads to a rapid borealization of fish communities in the Arctic. Nat Clim Chang. 2015; 5 (7):673–677. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2647. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Füssel HM, Hildén M (2014) How is uncertainty addressed in the knowledge base for national adaptation planning? Adapting to an Uncertain Climate (pp. 41–66): Springer
• Gambín BL, Borrás L, Otegui ME. Source–sink relations and kernel weight differences in maize temperate hybrids. Field Crop Res. 2006; 95 (2–3):316–326. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2005.04.002. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Gambín B, Borrás L. Resource distribution and the trade-off between seed number and seed weight: a comparison across crop species. Annals of Applied Biology. 2010; 156 (1):91–102. doi: 10.1111/j.1744-7348.2009.00367.x. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Gampe D, Nikulin G, Ludwig R. Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins. Sci Total Environ. 2016; 573 :1503–1518. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.053. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• García GA, Dreccer MF, Miralles DJ, Serrago RA. High night temperatures during grain number determination reduce wheat and barley grain yield: a field study. Glob Change Biol. 2015; 21 (11):4153–4164. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13009. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Garner E, Inyang M, Garvey E, Parks J, Glover C, Grimaldi A, Edwards MA. Impact of blending for direct potable reuse on premise plumbing microbial ecology and regrowth of opportunistic pathogens and antibiotic resistant bacteria. Water Res. 2019; 151 :75–86. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2018.12.003. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Gleditsch NP (2021) This time is different! Or is it? NeoMalthusians and environmental optimists in the age of climate change. J Peace Res 0022343320969785
• Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, Toulmin C. Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science. 2010; 327 (5967):812–818. doi: 10.1126/science.1185383. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Goes S, Hasterok D, Schutt DL, Klöcking M (2020) Continental lithospheric temperatures: A review. Phys Earth Planet Inter 106509
• Gorst A, Dehlavi A, Groom B. Crop productivity and adaptation to climate change in Pakistan. Environ Dev Econ. 2018; 23 (6):679–701. doi: 10.1017/S1355770X18000232. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Gosling SN, Arnell NW. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Clim Change. 2016; 134 (3):371–385. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Gössling S, Scott D, Hall CM, Ceron J-P, Dubois G. Consumer behaviour and demand response of tourists to climate change. Ann Tour Res. 2012; 39 (1):36–58. doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2011.11.002. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Gourdji SM, Sibley AM, Lobell DB. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections. Environ Res Lett. 2013; 8 (2):024041. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Grieg E Responsible Consumption and Production
• Gunter BG, Rahman A, Rahman A (2008) How Vulnerable are Bangladesh’s Indigenous People to Climate Change? Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC)
• Hall CM, Amelung B, Cohen S, Eijgelaar E, Gössling S, Higham J, Scott D. On climate change skepticism and denial in tourism. J Sustain Tour. 2015; 23 (1):4–25. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2014.953544. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Hartmann H, Moura CF, Anderegg WR, Ruehr NK, Salmon Y, Allen CD, Galbraith D. Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought-induced tree and forest mortality. New Phytol. 2018; 218 (1):15–28. doi: 10.1111/nph.15048. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Hatfield JL, Prueger JH. Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development. Weather and Climate Extremes. 2015; 10 :4–10. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Kimball B, Ziska L, Izaurralde RC, Ort D, Wolfe D. Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agron J. 2011; 103 (2):351–370. doi: 10.2134/agronj2010.0303. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Hendriksen RS, Munk P, Njage P, Van Bunnik B, McNally L, Lukjancenko O, Kjeldgaard J. Global monitoring of antimicrobial resistance based on metagenomics analyses of urban sewage. Nat Commun. 2019; 10 (1):1124. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-08853-3. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Huang S (2004) Global trade patterns in fruits and vegetables. USDA-ERS Agriculture and Trade Report No. WRS-04–06
• Huang W, Gao Q-X, Cao G-L, Ma Z-Y, Zhang W-D, Chao Q-C. Effect of urban symbiosis development in China on GHG emissions reduction. Adv Clim Chang Res. 2016; 7 (4):247–252. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2016.12.003. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Huang Y, Haseeb M, Usman M, Ozturk I (2022) Dynamic association between ICT, renewable energy, economic complexity and ecological footprint: Is there any difference between E-7 (developing) and G-7 (developed) countries? Tech Soc 68:101853
• Hubbart JA, Guyette R, Muzika R-M. More than drought: precipitation variance, excessive wetness, pathogens and the future of the western edge of the eastern deciduous forest. Sci Total Environ. 2016; 566 :463–467. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.108. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Hussain M, Butt AR, Uzma F, Ahmed R, Irshad S, Rehman A, Yousaf B. A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan. Environ Monit Assess. 2020; 192 (1):48. doi: 10.1007/s10661-019-7956-4. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Hussain M, Liu G, Yousaf B, Ahmed R, Uzma F, Ali MU, Butt AR. Regional and sectoral assessment on climate-change in Pakistan: social norms and indigenous perceptions on climate-change adaptation and mitigation in relation to global context. J Clean Prod. 2018; 200 :791–808. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.07.272. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Intergov. Panel Clim Chang 33 from 10.1017/CBO9781107415324
• Ionescu C, Klein RJ, Hinkel J, Kumar KK, Klein R. Towards a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change. Environ Model Assess. 2009; 14 (1):1–16. doi: 10.1007/s10666-008-9179-x. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. Clim Chang Phys Sci Basis Contrib Work Gr I Fifth Assess Rep
• Ishikawa-Ishiwata Y, Furuya J (2022) Economic evaluation and climate change adaptation measures for rice production in vietnam using a supply and demand model: special emphasis on the Mekong River Delta region in Vietnam. In Interlocal Adaptations to Climate Change in East and Southeast Asia (pp. 45–53). Springer, Cham
• Izaguirre C, Losada I, Camus P, Vigh J, Stenek V. Climate change risk to global port operations. Nat Clim Chang. 2021; 11 (1):14–20. doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00937-z. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Jactel H, Koricheva J, Castagneyrol B (2019) Responses of forest insect pests to climate change: not so simple. Current opinion in insect science [ PubMed ]
• Jahanzad E, Holtz BA, Zuber CA, Doll D, Brewer KM, Hogan S, Gaudin AC. Orchard recycling improves climate change adaptation and mitigation potential of almond production systems. PLoS ONE. 2020; 15 (3):e0229588. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229588. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Jurgilevich A, Räsänen A, Groundstroem F, Juhola S. A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments. Environ Res Lett. 2017; 12 (1):013002. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5508. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Karami E (2012) Climate change, resilience and poverty in the developing world. Paper presented at the Culture, Politics and Climate change conference
• Kärkkäinen L, Lehtonen H, Helin J, Lintunen J, Peltonen-Sainio P, Regina K, . . . Packalen T (2020) Evaluation of policy instruments for supporting greenhouse gas mitigation efforts in agricultural and urban land use. Land Use Policy 99:104991
• Karkman A, Do TT, Walsh F, Virta MP. Antibiotic-resistance genes in waste water. Trends Microbiol. 2018; 26 (3):220–228. doi: 10.1016/j.tim.2017.09.005. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Kohfeld KE, Le Quéré C, Harrison SP, Anderson RF. Role of marine biology in glacial-interglacial CO2 cycles. Science. 2005; 308 (5718):74–78. doi: 10.1126/science.1105375. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Kongsager R. Linking climate change adaptation and mitigation: a review with evidence from the land-use sectors. Land. 2018; 7 (4):158. doi: 10.3390/land7040158. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Kurz WA, Dymond C, Stinson G, Rampley G, Neilson E, Carroll A, Safranyik L. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature. 2008; 452 (7190):987. doi: 10.1038/nature06777. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Lamperti F, Bosetti V, Roventini A, Tavoni M, Treibich T (2021) Three green financial policies to address climate risks. J Financial Stab 54:100875
• Leal Filho W, Azeiteiro UM, Balogun AL, Setti AFF, Mucova SA, Ayal D, . . . Oguge NO (2021) The influence of ecosystems services depletion to climate change adaptation efforts in Africa. Sci Total Environ 146414 [ PubMed ]
• Lehner F, Coats S, Stocker TF, Pendergrass AG, Sanderson BM, Raible CC, Smerdon JE. Projected drought risk in 1.5 C and 2 C warmer climates. Geophys Res Lett. 2017; 44 (14):7419–7428. doi: 10.1002/2017GL074117. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Lemery J, Knowlton K, Sorensen C (2021) Global climate change and human health: from science to practice: John Wiley & Sons
• Leppänen S, Saikkonen L, Ollikainen M (2014) Impact of Climate Change on cereal grain production in Russia: Mimeo
• Lipczynska-Kochany E. Effect of climate change on humic substances and associated impacts on the quality of surface water and groundwater: a review. Sci Total Environ. 2018; 640 :1548–1565. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.376. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• livescience.com. New coronavirus may have ‘jumped’ to humans from snakes, study finds, live science,. from < https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-origin-snakes.html > accessed on Jan 2020
• Lobell DB, Field CB. Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ Res Lett. 2007; 2 (1):014002. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Lobell DB, Gourdji SM. The influence of climate change on global crop productivity. Plant Physiol. 2012; 160 (4):1686–1697. doi: 10.1104/pp.112.208298. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ma L, Li B, Zhang T. New insights into antibiotic resistome in drinking water and management perspectives: a metagenomic based study of small-sized microbes. Water Res. 2019; 152 :191–201. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2018.12.069. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Macchi M, Oviedo G, Gotheil S, Cross K, Boedhihartono A, Wolfangel C, Howell M (2008) Indigenous and traditional peoples and climate change. International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Gland, Suiza
• Mall RK, Gupta A, Sonkar G (2017) Effect of climate change on agricultural crops. In Current developments in biotechnology and bioengineering (pp. 23–46). Elsevier
• Manes S, Costello MJ, Beckett H, Debnath A, Devenish-Nelson E, Grey KA, . . . Krause C (2021) Endemism increases species’ climate change risk in areas of global biodiversity importance. Biol Conserv 257:109070
• Mannig B, Pollinger F, Gafurov A, Vorogushyn S, Unger-Shayesteh K (2018) Impacts of climate change in Central Asia Encyclopedia of the Anthropocene (pp. 195–203): Elsevier
• Martínez-Alvarado O, Gray SL, Hart NC, Clark PA, Hodges K, Roberts MJ. Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change. Environ Res Lett. 2018; 13 (4):044002. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaae3a. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Matsui T, Omasa K, Horie T. The difference in sterility due to high temperatures during the flowering period among japonica-rice varieties. Plant Production Science. 2001; 4 (2):90–93. doi: 10.1626/pps.4.90. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Meierrieks D (2021) Weather shocks, climate change and human health. World Dev 138:105228
• Michel D, Eriksson M, Klimes M (2021) Climate change and (in) security in transboundary river basins Handbook of Security and the Environment: Edward Elgar Publishing
• Mihiretu A, Okoyo EN, Lemma T. Awareness of climate change and its associated risks jointly explain context-specific adaptation in the Arid-tropics. Northeast Ethiopia SN Social Sciences. 2021; 1 (2):1–18. [ Google Scholar ]
• Millar CI, Stephenson NL. Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance. Science. 2015; 349 (6250):823–826. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa9933. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Mishra A, Bruno E, Zilberman D (2021) Compound natural and human disasters: Managing drought and COVID-19 to sustain global agriculture and food sectors. Sci Total Environ 754:142210 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Mosavi SH, Soltani S, Khalilian S (2020) Coping with climate change in agriculture: Evidence from Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran. Agric Water Manag 241:106332
• Murshed M (2020) An empirical analysis of the non-linear impacts of ICT-trade openness on renewable energy transition, energy efficiency, clean cooking fuel access and environmental sustainability in South Asia. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27(29):36254–36281. 10.1007/s11356-020-09497-3 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Murshed M. Pathways to clean cooking fuel transition in low and middle income Sub-Saharan African countries: the relevance of improving energy use efficiency. Sustainable Production and Consumption. 2022; 30 :396–412. doi: 10.1016/j.spc.2021.12.016. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Murshed M, Dao NTT. Revisiting the CO2 emission-induced EKC hypothesis in South Asia: the role of Export Quality Improvement. GeoJournal. 2020 doi: 10.1007/s10708-020-10270-9. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Murshed M, Abbass K, Rashid S. Modelling renewable energy adoption across south Asian economies: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Int J Finan Eco. 2021; 26 (4):5425–5450. doi: 10.1002/ijfe.2073. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Murshed M, Nurmakhanova M, Elheddad M, Ahmed R. Value addition in the services sector and its heterogeneous impacts on CO2 emissions: revisiting the EKC hypothesis for the OPEC using panel spatial estimation techniques. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 2020; 27 (31):38951–38973. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09593-4. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Murshed M, Nurmakhanova M, Al-Tal R, Mahmood H, Elheddad M, Ahmed R (2022) Can intra-regional trade, renewable energy use, foreign direct investments, and economic growth reduce ecological footprints in South Asia? Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy. 10.1080/15567249.2022.2038730
• Neuvonen M, Sievänen T, Fronzek S, Lahtinen I, Veijalainen N, Carter TR. Vulnerability of cross-country skiing to climate change in Finland–an interactive mapping tool. J Outdoor Recreat Tour. 2015; 11 :64–79. doi: 10.1016/j.jort.2015.06.010. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• npr.org. Please Help Me.’ What people in China are saying about the outbreak on social media, npr.org, . from < https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/24/799000379/please-help-me-what-people-in-china-are-saying-about-the-outbreak-on-social-medi >, Accessed on 26 Jan 2020.
• Ogden LE. Climate change, pathogens, and people: the challenges of monitoring a moving target. Bioscience. 2018; 68 (10):733–739. doi: 10.1093/biosci/biy101. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ortiz AMD, Outhwaite CL, Dalin C, Newbold T. A review of the interactions between biodiversity, agriculture, climate change, and international trade: research and policy priorities. One Earth. 2021; 4 (1):88–101. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.12.008. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ortiz R. Crop genetic engineering under global climate change. Ann Arid Zone. 2008; 47 (3):343. [ Google Scholar ]
• Otegui MAE, Bonhomme R. Grain yield components in maize: I. Ear growth and kernel set. Field Crop Res. 1998; 56 (3):247–256. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4290(97)00093-2. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Pachauri RK, Allen MR, Barros VR, Broome J, Cramer W, Christ R, . . . Dasgupta P (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Ipcc
• Pal JK. Visualizing the knowledge outburst in global research on COVID-19. Scientometrics. 2021; 126 (5):4173–4193. doi: 10.1007/s11192-021-03912-3. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Panda R, Behera S, Kashyap P. Effective management of irrigation water for wheat under stressed conditions. Agric Water Manag. 2003; 63 (1):37–56. doi: 10.1016/S0378-3774(03)00099-4. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Pärnänen KM, Narciso-da-Rocha C, Kneis D, Berendonk TU, Cacace D, Do TT, Jaeger T. Antibiotic resistance in European wastewater treatment plants mirrors the pattern of clinical antibiotic resistance prevalence. Sci Adv. 2019; 5 (3):eaau9124. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau9124. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Parry M, Parry ML, Canziani O, Palutikof J, Van der Linden P, Hanson C (2007) Climate change 2007-impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working group II contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC (Vol. 4): Cambridge University Press
• Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature. 2005; 438 (7066):310–317. doi: 10.1038/nature04188. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Patz JA, Graczyk TK, Geller N, Vittor AY. Effects of environmental change on emerging parasitic diseases. Int J Parasitol. 2000; 30 (12–13):1395–1405. doi: 10.1016/S0020-7519(00)00141-7. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Pautasso M, Döring TF, Garbelotto M, Pellis L, Jeger MJ. Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends. Eur J Plant Pathol. 2012; 133 (1):295–313. doi: 10.1007/s10658-012-9936-1. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RC, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Cassman KG. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2004; 101 (27):9971–9975. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0403720101. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Pereira HM, Ferrier S, Walters M, Geller GN, Jongman R, Scholes RJ, Cardoso A. Essential biodiversity variables. Science. 2013; 339 (6117):277–278. doi: 10.1126/science.1229931. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Perera K, De Silva K, Amarasinghe M. Potential impact of predicted sea level rise on carbon sink function of mangrove ecosystems with special reference to Negombo estuary, Sri Lanka. Global Planet Change. 2018; 161 :162–171. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.12.016. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Pfadenhauer JS, Klötzli FA (2020) Zonal Vegetation of the Subtropical (Warm–Temperate) Zone with Winter Rain. In Global Vegetation (pp. 455–514). Springer, Cham
• Phillips JD. Environmental gradients and complexity in coastal landscape response to sea level rise. CATENA. 2018; 169 :107–118. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2018.05.036. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Pirasteh-Anosheh H, Parnian A, Spasiano D, Race M, Ashraf M (2021) Haloculture: A system to mitigate the negative impacts of pandemics on the environment, society and economy, emphasizing COVID-19. Environ Res 111228 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Pruden A, Larsson DJ, Amézquita A, Collignon P, Brandt KK, Graham DW, Snape JR. Management options for reducing the release of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance genes to the environment. Environ Health Perspect. 2013; 121 (8):878–885. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1206446. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Qasim MZ, Hammad HM, Abbas F, Saeed S, Bakhat HF, Nasim W, Fahad S. The potential applications of picotechnology in biomedical and environmental sciences. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 2020; 27 (1):133–142. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-06554-4. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Qasim MZ, Hammad HM, Maqsood F, Tariq T, Chawla MS Climate Change Implication on Cereal Crop Productivity
• Rahman M, Alam K. Forest dependent indigenous communities’ perception and adaptation to climate change through local knowledge in the protected area—a Bangladesh case study. Climate. 2016; 4 (1):12. doi: 10.3390/cli4010012. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ramankutty N, Mehrabi Z, Waha K, Jarvis L, Kremen C, Herrero M, Rieseberg LH. Trends in global agricultural land use: implications for environmental health and food security. Annu Rev Plant Biol. 2018; 69 :789–815. doi: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042817-040256. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Rehman A, Ma H, Ahmad M, Irfan M, Traore O, Chandio AA (2021) Towards environmental Sustainability: devolving the influence of carbon dioxide emission to population growth, climate change, Forestry, livestock and crops production in Pakistan. Ecol Indic 125:107460
• Reichstein M, Carvalhais N. Aspects of forest biomass in the Earth system: its role and major unknowns. Surv Geophys. 2019; 40 (4):693–707. doi: 10.1007/s10712-019-09551-x. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Reidsma P, Ewert F, Boogaard H, van Diepen K. Regional crop modelling in Europe: the impact of climatic conditions and farm characteristics on maize yields. Agric Syst. 2009; 100 (1–3):51–60. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2008.12.009. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ritchie H, Roser M (2014) Natural disasters. Our World in Data
• Rizvi AR, Baig S, Verdone M. Ecosystems based adaptation: knowledge gaps in making an economic case for investing in nature based solutions for climate change. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN; 2015. p. 48. [ Google Scholar ]
• Roscher C, Fergus AJ, Petermann JS, Buchmann N, Schmid B, Schulze E-D. What happens to the sown species if a biodiversity experiment is not weeded? Basic Appl Ecol. 2013; 14 (3):187–198. doi: 10.1016/j.baae.2013.01.003. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A, Khabarov N. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2014; 111 (9):3268–3273. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Rosenzweig C, Iglesius A, Yang XB, Epstein PR, Chivian E (2001) Climate change and extreme weather events-implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests
• Sadras VO, Slafer GA. Environmental modulation of yield components in cereals: heritabilities reveal a hierarchy of phenotypic plasticities. Field Crop Res. 2012; 127 :215–224. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2011.11.014. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Salvucci ME, Crafts-Brandner SJ. Inhibition of photosynthesis by heat stress: the activation state of Rubisco as a limiting factor in photosynthesis. Physiol Plant. 2004; 120 (2):179–186. doi: 10.1111/j.0031-9317.2004.0173.x. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Santos WS, Gurgel-Gonçalves R, Garcez LM, Abad-Franch F. Deforestation effects on Attalea palms and their resident Rhodnius, vectors of Chagas disease, in eastern Amazonia. PLoS ONE. 2021; 16 (5):e0252071. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252071. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Sarkar P, Debnath N, Reang D (2021) Coupled human-environment system amid COVID-19 crisis: a conceptual model to understand the nexus. Sci Total Environ 753:141757 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Schlenker W, Roberts MJ. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2009; 106 (37):15594–15598. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0906865106. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Schoene DH, Bernier PY. Adapting forestry and forests to climate change: a challenge to change the paradigm. Forest Policy Econ. 2012; 24 :12–19. doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2011.04.007. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Schuurmans C (2021) The world heat budget: expected changes Climate Change (pp. 1–15): CRC Press
• Scott D. Sustainable Tourism and the Grand Challenge of Climate Change. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (4):1966. doi: 10.3390/su13041966. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Scott D, McBoyle G, Schwartzentruber M. Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America. Climate Res. 2004; 27 (2):105–117. doi: 10.3354/cr027105. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Semenov MA. Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. J R Soc Interface. 2009; 6 (33):343–350. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2008.0285. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Shaffril HAM, Krauss SE, Samsuddin SF. A systematic review on Asian’s farmers’ adaptation practices towards climate change. Sci Total Environ. 2018; 644 :683–695. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.349. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Shahbaz M, Balsalobre-Lorente D, Sinha A (2019) Foreign direct Investment–CO2 emissions nexus in Middle East and North African countries: Importance of biomass energy consumption. J Clean Product 217:603–614
• Sharif A, Mishra S, Sinha A, Jiao Z, Shahbaz M, Afshan S (2020) The renewable energy consumption-environmental degradation nexus in Top-10 polluted countries: Fresh insights from quantile-on-quantile regression approach. Renew Energy 150:670–690
• Sharma R. Impacts on human health of climate and land use change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. Mt Res Dev. 2012; 32 (4):480–486. doi: 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-12-00068.1. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Sharma R, Sinha A, Kautish P. Examining the impacts of economic and demographic aspects on the ecological footprint in South and Southeast Asian countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 2020; 27 (29):36970–36982. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09659-3. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Smit B, Burton I, Klein RJ, Wandel J (2000) An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability Societal adaptation to climate variability and change (pp. 223–251): Springer
• Song Y, Fan H, Tang X, Luo Y, Liu P, Chen Y (2021) The effects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on ischemic stroke and the possible underlying mechanisms. Int J Neurosci 1–20 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Sovacool BK, Griffiths S, Kim J, Bazilian M (2021) Climate change and industrial F-gases: a critical and systematic review of developments, sociotechnical systems and policy options for reducing synthetic greenhouse gas emissions. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 141:110759
• Stewart JA, Perrine JD, Nichols LB, Thorne JH, Millar CI, Goehring KE, Wright DH. Revisiting the past to foretell the future: summer temperature and habitat area predict pika extirpations in California. J Biogeogr. 2015; 42 (5):880–890. doi: 10.1111/jbi.12466. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Stocker T, Qin D, Plattner G, Tignor M, Allen S, Boschung J, . . . Midgley P (2013) Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Working group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth assessment report: Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1535p
• Stone P, Nicolas M. Wheat cultivars vary widely in their responses of grain yield and quality to short periods of post-anthesis heat stress. Funct Plant Biol. 1994; 21 (6):887–900. doi: 10.1071/PP9940887. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Su H-C, Liu Y-S, Pan C-G, Chen J, He L-Y, Ying G-G. Persistence of antibiotic resistance genes and bacterial community changes in drinking water treatment system: from drinking water source to tap water. Sci Total Environ. 2018; 616 :453–461. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.318. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Sunderlin WD, Angelsen A, Belcher B, Burgers P, Nasi R, Santoso L, Wunder S. Livelihoods, forests, and conservation in developing countries: an overview. World Dev. 2005; 33 (9):1383–1402. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.10.004. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Symanski E, Han HA, Han I, McDaniel M, Whitworth KW, McCurdy S, . . . Delclos GL (2021) Responding to natural and industrial disasters: partnerships and lessons learned. Disaster medicine and public health preparedness 1–4 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agric for Meteorol. 2006; 138 (1–4):82–92. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.014. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA. Going to the extremes. Clim Change. 2006; 79 (3–4):185–211. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Testa G, Koon E, Johannesson L, McKenna G, Anthony T, Klintmalm G, Gunby R (2018) This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as
• Thornton PK, Lipper L (2014) How does climate change alter agricultural strategies to support food security? (Vol. 1340): Intl Food Policy Res Inst
• Tranfield D, Denyer D, Smart P. Towards a methodology for developing evidence-informed management knowledge by means of systematic review. Br J Manag. 2003; 14 (3):207–222. doi: 10.1111/1467-8551.00375. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• UNEP (2017) United nations environment programme: frontiers 2017. from https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/antimicrobial-resistance - environmental-pollution-among-biggest
• Usman M, Balsalobre-Lorente D (2022) Environmental concern in the era of industrialization: Can financial development, renewable energy and natural resources alleviate some load? Ene Policy 162:112780
• Usman M, Makhdum MSA (2021) What abates ecological footprint in BRICS-T region? Exploring the influence of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, agriculture, forest area and financial development. Renew Energy 179:12–28
• Usman M, Balsalobre-Lorente D, Jahanger A, Ahmad P. Pollution concern during globalization mode in financially resource-rich countries: Do financial development, natural resources, and renewable energy consumption matter? Rene. Energy. 2022; 183 :90–102. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.067. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Usman M, Jahanger A, Makhdum MSA, Balsalobre-Lorente D, Bashir A (2022a) How do financial development, energy consumption, natural resources, and globalization affect Arctic countries’ economic growth and environmental quality? An advanced panel data simulation. Energy 241:122515
• Usman M, Khalid K, Mehdi MA. What determines environmental deficit in Asia? Embossing the role of renewable and non-renewable energy utilization. Renew Energy. 2021; 168 :1165–1176. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.01.012. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Urban MC. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science. 2015; 348 (6234):571–573. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa4984. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Vale MM, Arias PA, Ortega G, Cardoso M, Oliveira BF, Loyola R, Scarano FR (2021) Climate change and biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest: best climatic models, predicted changes and impacts, and adaptation options The Atlantic Forest (pp. 253–267): Springer
• Vedwan N, Rhoades RE. Climate change in the Western Himalayas of India: a study of local perception and response. Climate Res. 2001; 19 (2):109–117. doi: 10.3354/cr019109. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Vega CR, Andrade FH, Sadras VO, Uhart SA, Valentinuz OR. Seed number as a function of growth. A comparative study in soybean, sunflower, and maize. Crop Sci. 2001; 41 (3):748–754. doi: 10.2135/cropsci2001.413748x. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Vergés A, Doropoulos C, Malcolm HA, Skye M, Garcia-Pizá M, Marzinelli EM, Vila-Concejo A. Long-term empirical evidence of ocean warming leading to tropicalization of fish communities, increased herbivory, and loss of kelp. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2016; 113 (48):13791–13796. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1610725113. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Verheyen R (2005) Climate change damage and international law: prevention duties and state responsibility (Vol. 54): Martinus Nijhoff Publishers
• Waheed A, Fischer TB, Khan MI. Climate Change Policy Coherence across Policies, Plans, and Strategies in Pakistan—implications for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Plan. Environ Manage. 2021; 67 (5):793–810. doi: 10.1007/s00267-021-01449-y. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Wasiq M, Ahmad M (2004) Sustaining forests: a development strategy: The World Bank
• Watts N, Adger WN, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W, Cooper A. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. The Lancet. 2015; 386 (10006):1861–1914. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60854-6. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Weed AS, Ayres MP, Hicke JA. Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests. Ecol Monogr. 2013; 83 (4):441–470. doi: 10.1890/13-0160.1. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Weisheimer A, Palmer T (2005) Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 32(20)
• Wernberg T, Bennett S, Babcock RC, De Bettignies T, Cure K, Depczynski M, Hovey RK. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem. Science. 2016; 353 (6295):169–172. doi: 10.1126/science.aad8745. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• WHO (2018) WHO, 2018. Antimicrobial resistance
• Wilkinson DM, Sherratt TN. Why is the world green? The interactions of top–down and bottom–up processes in terrestrial vegetation ecology. Plant Ecolog Divers. 2016; 9 (2):127–140. doi: 10.1080/17550874.2016.1178353. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Wiranata IJ, Simbolon K. Increasing awareness capacity of disaster potential as a support to achieve sustainable development goal (sdg) 13 in lampung province. Jurnal Pir: Power in International Relations. 2021; 5 (2):129–146. doi: 10.22303/pir.5.2.2021.129-146. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Wiréhn L. Nordic agriculture under climate change: a systematic review of challenges, opportunities and adaptation strategies for crop production. Land Use Policy. 2018; 77 :63–74. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.04.059. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Wu D, Su Y, Xi H, Chen X, Xie B. Urban and agriculturally influenced water contribute differently to the spread of antibiotic resistance genes in a mega-city river network. Water Res. 2019; 158 :11–21. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2019.03.010. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Wu HX (2020) Losing Steam?—An industry origin analysis of China’s productivity slowdown Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity (pp. 137–167): Elsevier
• Wu H, Qian H, Chen J, Huo C. Assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in the Guanzhong Plain. China Water Resources Management. 2017; 31 (5):1557–1574. doi: 10.1007/s11269-017-1594-9. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Xie W, Huang J, Wang J, Cui Q, Robertson R, Chen K (2018) Climate change impacts on China’s agriculture: the responses from market and trade. China Econ Rev
• Xu J, Sharma R, Fang J, Xu Y. Critical linkages between land-use transition and human health in the Himalayan region. Environ Int. 2008; 34 (2):239–247. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2007.08.004. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Yadav MK, Singh R, Singh K, Mall R, Patel C, Yadav S, Singh M. Assessment of climate change impact on productivity of different cereal crops in Varanasi. India J Agrometeorol. 2015; 17 (2):179–184. doi: 10.54386/jam.v17i2.1000. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Yang B, Usman M. Do industrialization, economic growth and globalization processes influence the ecological footprint and healthcare expenditures? Fresh insights based on the STIRPAT model for countries with the highest healthcare expenditures. Sust Prod Cons. 2021; 28 :893–910. [ Google Scholar ]
• Yu Z, Razzaq A, Rehman A, Shah A, Jameel K, Mor RS (2021) Disruption in global supply chain and socio-economic shocks: a lesson from COVID-19 for sustainable production and consumption. Oper Manag Res 1–16
• Zarnetske PL, Skelly DK, Urban MC. Biotic multipliers of climate change. Science. 2012; 336 (6088):1516–1518. doi: 10.1126/science.1222732. [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Zhang M, Liu N, Harper R, Li Q, Liu K, Wei X, Liu S. A global review on hydrological responses to forest change across multiple spatial scales: importance of scale, climate, forest type and hydrological regime. J Hydrol. 2017; 546 :44–59. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.040. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Zhao J, Sinha A, Inuwa N, Wang Y, Murshed M, Abbasi KR (2022) Does Structural Transformation in Economy Impact Inequality in Renewable Energy Productivity? Implications for Sustainable Development. Renew Energy 189:853–864. 10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.050

• Previous Article
• Next Article

INTRODUCTION

Materials and methods, data and methods employed, results and discussion, conclusion and suggestions, author contributions, acknowledgements, data availability statement, conflict of interest, social and ecological climate change vulnerability assessment in the indus delta, pakistan.

• Article contents
• Figures & tables
• Supplementary Data
• Open the PDF for in another window
• Guest Access
• Cite Icon Cite
• Permissions
• Search Site

Ghulam Shabir Solangi , Altaf Ali Siyal , Zain-ul-Abdin Siyal , Pirah Siyal , Sallahuddin Panhwar , Hareef Ahmed Keerio , Nabi Bux Bhatti; Social and ecological climate change vulnerability assessment in the Indus delta, Pakistan. Water Practice and Technology 1 August 2022; 17 (8): 1666–1678. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2022.087

Download citation file:

• Ris (Zotero)
• Reference Manager

Due to seawater intrusion into the Indus delta, Pakistan under changing climate scenarios, the local communities of the delta are under threat of land and livelihood. The present study was initiated to analyze community perceptions about the social and ecological climate change vulnerability in the Indus delta, Pakistan. About 500 permanent residents of the delta were interviewed using a well-structured questionnaire. The IBM SPSS software was used to analyze the data based on the Pearson chi-square, Goodman, Kruskal's analyses, and Foster Greer Thorbeck (FGT) techniques. Analysis of the data revealed that the people in the delta had poor infrastructure and living standards, and limited social activities. Most of the people were illiterate, and the average family size was 11. On average, 4.7 members lived in a single room, and most of the houses were made of wood. Based on FGT techniques, about 88.4% of the population were living below the poverty line. The statistical analysis identified seawater intrusion and climate change as the most significant parameters affecting soil fertility, water quality, vegetation, mangroves, and livelihood. A large portion of the respondents strongly demanded the ensured freshwater flow to save the ecosystem, water resources, and the livelihood of the delta communities.

Statistical assessment for impact of seawater intrusion and climate change.

Community-based perceptions.

Application of Pearson chi-square and Goodman, Kruskal's analyses, and Foster Greer Thorbeck techniques.

To prompt responsible policymakers to devise strategies for mitigation.

Graphical Abstract

Due to climate change impacts, arid and semi-arid areas of the world are at risk regarding water scarcity and land degradation ( IPCC 2008 ). Pakistan has more than 220 million population, which ranks it the sixth-most populous country in the world. It is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change ( Rasul et al. 2012 ), ranking the sixth country on the climate change vulnerability index. The erratic freshwater flows because of temporal and spatial variability in rainfall due to climate change are turning acres of fertile agricultural land into a wasteland and thus threatening the biodiversity of the major ecological zones of Pakistan. The incidents of frequent flooding and droughts in the country are also increasing with larger variability in monsoon rainfall patterns ( Rasul et al. 2012 ). The Indus River is a lifeline of the country, and its flows are unpredictable, decreasing at a faster rate. It is expected that due to the changing climate scenario, the River Indus flows will further decrease. Hence, agriculture and food security in the country will suffer the most.

At the end of the current century, the expected rise in sea level is about 180 to 590 millimeters ( Ninan & Bedamatta 2012 ). This rise will ultimately affect the Indus River delta, which is the seventh-largest delta in the world stretching over about 0.6 million hectares ( Salik et al. 2016 ). The delta is said to be the most vulnerable to the climate change. It is reported that due to the construction of dams and reservoirs in the Indus River basin and diversion of excessive water for domestic, irrigation, and industrial purposes, fresh water supply to the Indus River delta is significantly decreased ( Alamgir et al. 2015 ; Siyal et al. 2022 ). That has converted the fertile agricultural lands of the delta into salt-affected soils and fresh groundwater aquifers and surface water bodies of the area into brackish. The resulting seawater intrusion has also drastically affected the flora, fauna, and mangrove cover, threatened the biodiversity and badly affected the socioeconomic conditions of the community living in the delta ( Alamgir et al. 2015 ; Laghari et al. 2015 ; Thomas 2015 ; Peracha et al. 2017 ).

Furthermore, residents of the Indus delta have numerous difficulties. Most of the places that were once thriving farming, fishing, and commercial networks have now been reduced to little towns ( Rasul et al. 2012 ). Floods and waterlogging have also put adverse impacts on the human health and their animals. Diarrhea, dysentery, and respiratory infections are frequent in the area, as are climate-sensitive diseases including malaria and dengue fever ( Rahman et al. 2017 ). Climate change affects human-environmental interactions, socio-ecology frameworks, and their activities ( Jongman et al. 2014 ), which enable the production of food, fibre, and energy at various levels ( Neil Adger et al. 2005 ). Climate stress, and a lack of ability to adapt and modify it are all indicators of the coastal socio-ecological system's vulnerability ( Rahman & Miah 2013 ). Climate change, lack of resources, and a limited adaptation ability in the deltaic community, are worsening the vulnerabilities and posing challenges to long-term food production in the deltaic region of Sindh, Pakistan Rasul et al. (2012) . As a result, the local communities in the Indus delta are shifting from their ancestral homes to safer locations in search of food and shelter ( Mahar 2010 ; Alamgir et al. 2015 ; Solangi 2019 ).

A socioeconomic survey collects quantitative data on a region's social, economic, and demographic factors. Seawater intrusion, worsened by climate change is posing a growing threat to the socio-economic conditions of Pakistan's coastal areas ( Rahman et al. 2017 ). In light of these facts, the current study was carried out to assess the social and ecological climate change vulnerability in the Indus delta, Sindh, Pakistan.

Description of the study area

Location map of the study area (Indus delta).

To assess the social and ecological climate change vulnerability in the Indus delta, Sindh, Pakistan, a comprehensive Participatory Appraisal Survey was conducted through a well-structured questionnaire.

The sample size and selection of respondents

Using the above calculation, it was determined that the sample size should not be less than 384, hence 500 respondents were randomly selected from the entire deltaic area for the present study.

Data collection and statistical tools employed

Current and previous occupations, current and previous sources of income;

Socioeconomic analysis of changes in farm income (past and present), living habits, and any unusual diseases (not before encountered), etc.

Any unusual or adverse environmental conditions in comparison to previous circumstances,

Any perceived climatic changes by the community,

Any perceived understanding by the residents about climate change and seawater intrusion and its effects on their sources of income

The collected data was statistically analyzed using the Pearson chi-square and Goodman and Kruskal's analyses. The IBM SPSS 22 software package was used to analyze the data.

Measurement of poverty in the study area

The overall sample size is n , the number of poor people is q , the poverty line is z , and the lowest income is y i . The headcount index calculates the percentage of the population who is poor, but it does not show how poor they are ( Imran et al. 2013 ). The poverty-severity index, on the other hand, averages the squares of poverty gaps concerning the poverty line.

After the collection of the required primary field data, it was arranged in tables using descriptive statistics as discussed under.

Socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents

Age group distribution of the respondents of the study area.

Mulyanto & Magsi (2014) reported that for interpreting the social structure of a society, education is also an important indicator. According to this study, the literacy rate in the study area was around 49.60%, with 8.73% having a graduate degree, the highest qualification in the area. Furthermore, the majority of the people lived in Katcha houses built of wood, whereas only 21.43% of the inhabitants lived in pucca cemented houses, according to the survey. A single room housed an average of 4.7 family members. The findings regarding socioeconomic charactersistics of the present study are comparable to those reported by Magsi & Sheikh (2017) in their investigation of the socio-economic conditions of individuals in Badin District, Sindh, Pakistan.

Income, expenditures, and sources of income

Monthly income of the respondents.

Monthly income, expenditure, source of energy, roads, vehicle, agricultural lands, and livestock

Climate change impacts

This section consists of describing climate change impacts, such as variations in rainfall patterns, temperature, wind storms, etc. as perceived by the community of the delta during the past 20 years.

Change in climatic parameters reported by the people during the past 20 years.

Seawater intrusion impacts

This section describes the effects of seawater intrusion on the Indus delta's water resources, vegetation, crop cover, yield, soil salinity, fishing, and mangrove cover over the past 20 years.

Groundwater is the primary source of drinking water in the research area ( Solangi 2019 ). According to this study, 75.40% of the Delta population uses groundwater extracted through hand pumps and shallow boreholes. While 13.89% of people use surfacewater, 3.17% use water from various water delivery schemes, and 7.54%t use water from tankers. As potable water was once available near their communities at shallow depths, according to the majority of respondents. However, they now have to obtain drinking water 5–10 kilometres away from their villages, which is both time consuming and economically infeasible ( Rahman et al. 2017 ). Due to the requirement to collect water and perform all home responsibilities, time management for women in the family becomes tough ( Rahman et al. 2017 ). Furthermore, 40.1% of respondents indicated that groundwater has turned brackish due to seawater intrusion into aquifers, and 78.97% said that the taste of groundwater is getting worse with each passing day.

Khanom (2016) reported that due to climate change and seawater intrusion, salinity intrusion in groundwater and natural wetlands has been steadily growing. The survey revealed that 20.4% of the people suffered from gastrointestinal disease, diarrhea, and chest and stomach problems. 14.8% were affected by skin diseases, 16.4% by hepatitis, 9.2% by cancer and 8.4% by cholera, diabetes, high blood pressure, heart, and kidney problems. Due to the use of contaminated water, insufficient quantity and quality of food, and a lack of healthcare services, the majority of the respondents reported that they are suffering from various diseases. Drinking of contaminated water can cause various diseases, such as: like diarrhea, indigestion, fever and other intestinal diseases ( Solangi 2019 ). Salinity has a direct effect on stroke, left ventricular mass, stomach cancer, and many other disorders ( He & MacGregor 2008 ). Common human ailments such as gastrointestinal distress, vomiting, diarrhoea, skin, and kidney problems, could be linked to low quality drinking water utilised by locals ( Memon et al. 2011 ).

According to 96.03% of respondents, the inflow of highly saline water from the Arabian Sea into the delta has a negative influence on water supplies, agricultural fields, and crop yields, and eventually decreases the community's livelihood. The majority of participants said that these losses have become worse over the last 5–30 years. As a result, a number of families (about 15% of those surveyed) have relocated from their ancestral settlements to safer areas nearby cities/towns in search of food and shelter. Mahar (2010) reported that due to seawater intrusion, people are evacuating the traditional populated areas. Additionally, per acreage crop yield of agricultural lands is decreasing continuously, and the socio-economic conditions of the people are badly affected.

When asked about the main causes of seawater intrusion, 47.33% said it was due to a decrease in freshwater flow from the Indus River, while 4.11% said it was due to increasing sea levels. However, 25.51% said there was no flood protection along the Delta's shorelines. Deforestation of mangrove trees, building of the Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD), excavation of a tidal link canal, and destruction of Samandi Bandar were named as the main causes of coastal degradation by 18.1% of respondents.

The main issues faced by the people due to seawater intrusion

Impacts of seawater intrusion and climate change on vegetation, soil, drinking water, and the livelihood of the Indus delta community

Relationship between change in temperature and decrease in the fish catchment in the study area

Relationship between seawater intrusion and vegetation in the delta

Relationship between seawater intrusion and soil salinity in the delta

According to the table, 94% of respondents indicated an increase in soil salinity. However, 2% of respondents said that increased seawater intrusion in the delta had no effect on soil salinity. The Pearson chi-square analysis value for the link between these variables at a significant threshold of 0.01 was estimated as 112.833, indicating that these two variables have a statistically significant relationship. The gamma value (0.672) also indicates that this relationship was fairly strong.

Relationship between seawater intrusion and drinking water quality

Relationship between seawater intrusion and income of the community

Measurement of the magnitude of poverty in the Indus delta

The degree of poverty was determined using Foster-Greer-Thorbeck techniques, which are the most reliable and extensively used techniques for estimating poverty lines. An international poverty level of 2 dollars ( Imran et al. 2013 ; Solangi 2019 ) was chosen as a baseline, based on the current exchange rate.

Measurement of poverty headcount, poverty gap, and severity of poverty in the Indus delta community

Distribution of respondents based on their level of poverty.

Respondents were divided into four categories based on the international poverty level of $2: very poor, moderately poor, poor, and non-poor ( IFAD 2002 ; Imran et al. 2013 ). The first class (very poor) was defined as being one-third of the poverty line, the second class (moderate poor) as being between one-third and two-thirds of the poverty line, the third class (poor) as being between two-thirds of the poverty line, and the fourth class as not being poor ( Imran et al. 2013 ).

The findings revealed that poverty is quite severe in the coastal belt of Sindh, Pakistan. Based on the village survey (2004–05) as reported by Majeed et al. (2010) , Thatta and Badin districts of southern Sindh Province of Pakistan were classified as districts below the poverty line. Furthermore, ADB (2005) and Majeed et al. (2010) reported that about 79% of the coastal population falls below the poverty line, out of which 54% are in the category of very poor. Similar poverty trends in Pakistan have been reported by Saboor et al. (2006) . Behind these poverty ratios, the main factors include, at a minimum, the absence of physical infrastructure, less resource possession, lack of market resource integration, poor health, education indicators, and lack of proper management policies for poverty reduction ( Joshi 2008 ; Israr & Khan 2010 ; Imran et al. 2013 ). It could hamper the growth trend and could create social unrest if attention is not paid to these poor communities ( Morrison et al. 2007 ) who reside in the Indus delta.

The present study revealed that residents of the Indus delta are enduring poor infrastructure, poor living standards, and limited social activities. Most of the people are uneducated. The average family consisted of 11 members, whereas an average of 4.7 people lived in a single room. Many families have migrated from their ancestral areas to search for places that had a better potential to earn a sufficient income. Analysis based on the FGT techniques, about 88.4% community of the delta, were living below the poverty line. The Pearson chi-square and Goodman, Kruskal's analyses identified seawater intrusion as the most significant parameter affecting soil fertility, water quality, flora, fauna, mangroves, and livelihood of the Indus Delta community.Most of the people strongly requested an increased freshwater flow in the Indus River to its delta. In light of the findings of this study, it is concluded that there is a dire need for improving the environmental conditions by increasing freshwater flow below the Kotri Barrage, the last barrage on the Indus River before it flows to the delta. Appropriate water treatment/desalinization plants must be installed, introducing bio-saline agriculture should be considered, the degraded agricultural lands should be reclaimed to improve the infrastructure and protect the environment along the coast of Sindh. The facts reported in this study should certainly prompt responsible policymakers to devise strategies for mitigation of these adverse impacts of seawater intrusion on the socioeconomic conditions of the community living in the Indus delta. This change is necessary to save the ecosystem, agricultural lands, water resources, mangrove forests, fishing revenue, as well as the livelihood of the people living. The study findings will provide accurate data to demonstrate the current disastrous state of the delta area and suggest ways to promote realistic measures to remediate the delta and improve the lives of the residents.

Ghulam Shabir Solangi: concept, design, analysis, writing – review and editing. Altaf Ali Siyal: concept, design, analysis, writing – review and editing. Zain-ul-Abdin Siyal : concept, design, analysis, writing – review and editing. Pirah Siyal: concept, design, analysis, writing – review and editing. Sallahuddin Panhwar: review and editing. Hareef Ahmed Keerio : review and editing. Nabi Bux Bhatti : review and editing.

The U.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water (U.S.-PCAS-W), Mehran University of Engineering & Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan is highly acknowledged for funding the project ‘Assessing the impact of Seawater Intrusion on Soil, Water, and Environment in the Indus Delta using GIS and Remote Sensing’. Authors are also grateful to Dr Rick Bereit, Professor, The University of Utah, United States of America (USA), for his constructive comments and suggestions regarding the improvement of the article.

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.

The authors declare there is no conflict.

Affiliations

• EISSN 1751-231X
• Open Access
• Collections
• Subscriptions
• Subscribe to Open
• Editorial Services
• Rights and Permissions
• Sign Up for Our Mailing List
• IWA Publishing
• Republic – Export Building, Units 1.04 & 1.05
• 1 Clove Crescent
• London, E14 2BA, UK
• Telephone:  +44 208 054 8208
• Fax:  +44 207 654 5555
• IWAPublishing.com
• IWA-network.org
• IWA-connect.org
• Cookie Policy
• Terms & Conditions
• Get Adobe Acrobat Reader
• ©Copyright 2021 IWA Publishing

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only

Sign In or Create an Account

• Search Menu
• Author Guidelines
• Submission Site
• Open Access
• About International Studies Review
• About the International Studies Association
• Editorial Board
• Advertising and Corporate Services
• Journals Career Network
• Self-Archiving Policy
• Dispatch Dates
• Journals on Oxford Academic
• Books on Oxford Academic

Article Contents

Introduction, the analytical framework: linking climate change, vulnerability, and conflict, methodology: a systematic review, pathways between climate change and violent conflict in the mena region, evaluating the “pathways” framework in the mena region.

• < Previous

Climate Change and Violent Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa

• Article contents
• Figures & tables
• Supplementary Data

Kyungmee Kim, Tània Ferré Garcia, Climate Change and Violent Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, International Studies Review , Volume 25, Issue 4, December 2023, viad053, https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viad053

• Permissions Icon Permissions

Previous research has demonstrated that climate change can escalate the risks for violent conflict through various pathways. Existing evidence suggests that contextual factors, such as migration and livelihood options, governance arrangements, and existing conflict dynamics, can influence the pathways through which climate change leads to conflict. This important insight leads to an inquiry to identify sets of conditions and processes that make climate-related violent conflict more likely. In this analytic essay, we conduct a systematic review of scholarly literature published during the period 1989–2022 and explore the climate-conflict pathways in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Through the systematic review of forty-one peer-reviewed publications in English, we identify that society’s ability to cope with the changing climate and extreme weather events is influenced by a range of factors, including preceding government policies that led to the mismanagement of land and water and existing conflict dynamics in the MENA region. Empirical research to unpack the complex and diverse relationship between the climate shocks and violent conflict in the MENA region needs advancing. Several avenues for future research are highlighted such as more studies on North Africa and the Gulf region, with focus on the implications of floods and heatwaves, and exploring climate implications on non-agriculture sectors including the critical oil sector.

Investigaciones previas que han demostrado que el cambio climático puede llegar a aumentar la probabilidad del riesgo de conflictos violentos a través de diversos mecanismos. Las pruebas existentes sugieren que los factores contextuales, tales como la migración y las opciones de medios de subsistencia, los acuerdos de gobernanza y la dinámica de conflicto existente, pueden influir en las vías a través de las cuales el cambio climático conduce a los conflictos. Esta percepción motiva una investigación con el objetivo de identificar una serie de condiciones y procesos que hacen que incrementan la probabilidad de conflictos violentos relacionados con el clima. En este ensayo analítico, llevamos a cabo una revisión sistemática de la literatura académica publicada durante el período entre 1989 y 2022. El estudio explora las vías de conflicto climático en la región de Oriente Medio y el Norte de África (MENA, por sus siglas en inglés). A través de la revisión sistemática de 41 publicaciones en inglés revisadas por expertos, fenómenos meteorológicos extremos está influenciada por una serie de factores, que incluyen tanto las políticas gubernamentales precedentes que condujeron a la mala gestión de la tierra y el agua como la dinámica de conflicto existente en la región MENA. Es esencial avanzar en la investigación empírica para poder desentrañar la compleja y diversa relación existente entre las perturbaciones climáticas y los conflictos violentos en la región de Oriente Medio y el Norte de África. Destacamos varias vías de investigación futura, como la realización de un mayor número estudios sobre el norte de África y la región del Golfo, con un enfoque en las implicaciones de las inundaciones y las olas de calor, así como la exploración de las implicaciones climáticas en los sectores no agrícolas, incluido el sector petrolero, de crítica importancia.

Des travaux de recherche antérieurs ont montré que le changement climatique pouvait aggraver les risques de conflits violents de bien des façons. Les éléments probants existants indiquent que les facteurs contextuels, comme les possibilités d'immigration et de moyens de subsistance, les arrangements gouvernementaux et les dynamiques de conflit existantes, peuvent avoir une incidence sur les mécanismes par lesquels le changement climatique peut créer des conflits. Cette information importante nous pousse à chercher les ensembles de conditions et de processus qui augmentent la probabilité des conflits violents en lien avec le climat. Dans cet article analytique, nous conduisons un examen systématique de la littérature académique publiée entre 1989 et 2022 pour nous intéresser aux liens entre climat et conflits dans la région du Moyen-Orient et de l'Afrique du Nord (MENA). En examinant de façon systématique 41 publications en anglais vérifiées par des pairs, nous remarquons que la capacité d'une société à gérer l’évolution du climat et les phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes est liée à un éventail de facteurs, y compris les politiques précédentes du gouvernement qui ont engendré une mauvaise gestion des terres et de l'eau et les dynamiques de conflit existantes dans la région MENA. La recherche empirique pour décortiquer la relation complexe et plurielle entre les crises climatiques et les conflits violents dans la région MENA doit avancer. Plusieurs pistes de recherches ultérieures sont présentées, comme davantage d’études dans la région de l'Afrique du Nord et du Golfe, en se concentrant plus particulièrement sur les implications des inondations et des vagues de chaleur, et l'analyse des conséquences climatiques sur les secteurs hors agriculture, notamment le secteur décisif du pétrole.

Climate change contributes to conflict risk and undermines livelihoods and human security. The impact of climate change overburdens countries in demanding security environments and exacerbates political instability, which may lead to violent conflict. Researchers have sought to explain the relationship between climate change and violent conflict and climate change as a growing factor for security risks ( Gleditsch 2012 ; Meierding 2013 ; Sakaguchi, Varughese, and Auld 2017 ; Ide 2018 ; Van Baalen and Mobjörk 2018 ). There is a greater consensus that climate change has an impact on human security and sustaining peace ( Abrahams 2020 ; Black et al. 2022 ; Morales-Muñoz et al. 2022 ). The evidence has been gathered on the physical changes in diverse livelihood systems and human migration and the negative effects on human adaptation capacities ( IPCC 2022 ). The debate may have to move on from whether climate change has been the primary cause of a war or not ( Verhoeven 2011 ; e.g., Selby et al. 2017 ). Our understanding of what context climate change matters for conflict and security and how relevant factors play out in local contexts should be based on comprehensive and systematic research that considers various scales, time periods, and localities.

Moreover, existing evidence suggests that climate-related security risks are context specific, and there are multiple pathways by which climate change influences the onsets and patterns of armed conflict ( Brzoska and Fröhlich 2016 ; Mobjörk, Krampe, and Tarif 2020 ). The “climate insecurity pathway” framework assumes that climate change may not be the only contributor to violent conflict but also other factors leading to insecurity such as internal and international migration, livelihood options, and governance arrangements ( Van Baalen and Mobjörk 2018 ). Existing conflict dynamics and security environments can exacerbate climate-related security risks. This analytic essay contributes to the debate on how climate change affects the risk of violent conflict by conducting a systematic review of the literature directly or indirectly linking climate change of violent conflict focusing on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region that has been severely impacted by both. 1 By conducting a systematic literature review, we are particularly interested in synthesizing existing evidence to better understand the climate-conflict links in the MENA region. We included forty-one peer-reviewed articles published between 1989 and 2022 in the analysis. Based on the review, we conclude that the relationship between climate change and violent conflict is predominantly indirect and diverse, highlighting the need to avoid oversimplified assumptions. Climate change’s contribution to conflict risk in the MENA region is further mediated by political economy, institutional weaknesses, elite competition, and existing socio-political relations. A careful examination of evidence is crucial for comprehensive climate security discussions in general and policy considerations for the MENA region. The following systematic review of literature showcases the linkages between climate exposure and various sources of vulnerability in the MENA region.

Climate Exposure and Social Vulnerability in the MENA Region

The MENA region is facing major security challenges from its vulnerability to climate change and violent conflict. The region is the world’s most water-stressed region, hosting thirteen of the world’s twenty most water-stressed countries, with currently over 82 percent of its terrain covered in desert ( Sieghart and Betre 2018 ). Indeed, water rationing and the limitation of water supplies are already a reality in parts of Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine, and Jordan ( Sowers, Vengosh, and Weinthal 2011 ). Recent climate science predicts an average global warming of 1.5°C under the business-as-usual scenario, while in the MENA region, it is expected to increase up to 4°C ( Gaub and Lienard 2021 ). Furthermore, the level of mean precipitation is also expected to decrease in the region ( Zittis , et al. 2020 ). By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population could be annually exposed to super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves ( Zittis et al. 2021 ). In essence, the region is likely to become drier and experience extremely high temperatures, followed by extreme and chronic water shortages becoming more frequent.

Many countries in the MENA region are vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their weak adaptive capacity ( Sowers et al. 2011 ; Namdar, Karami, and Keshavarz 2021 ). The adaptive capacity to climate change varies across the MENA region. While oil-exporting Gulf states have the financial resources for investments in water desalination and wastewater technologies, others suffer from a lack of financial resources and water conservation policies ( Sowers et al. 2011 ). The adverse effect of climate change on agricultural productivity is likely to affect the livelihood conditions of rural populations and may contribute to rural-to-urban migration in some cases ( Waha et al. 2017 ). Changes in precipitation and extreme weather events can reduce the region’s agriculture yields, as up to 70 percent of the crops are rain-fed ( Waha et al. 2017 ). Climate change impacts present a threat to food security in the MENA region and exacerbate the vulnerability to global food price volatility, including Egypt and Lebanon. Countries with a high level of imported grain dependency witness significant inflations in cereal prices that can be a source of political instability ( Tanchum 2021 ). Food price volatility has contributed to political stability in the past, especially during the Arab Spring, and the combined effect of reduced water discharge with the demographic trend of the youth bulge could present a challenge to the political stability of a region ( Borghesi and Ticci 2019 ).

Over the past decade, several of the world’s deadliest conflicts flared up in the MENA region, particularly in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Turkey ( Palik et al. 2020 ). The intractable conflict between Israel and Palestine has caused immense human suffering and disrupted regional stability. These conflicts are linked to long-running inequalities and grievances and economic and political instability, which make conflict resolution exceptionally challenging. Deterioration of the physical environment and land degradation further exacerbate risks of communal conflict and political instability in the future. Violent conflict, on the other hand, has been destructive to the adjoining environment. For instance, the effect of intense armed conflict has been significant in Syria’s already declining land and water resources ( Mohamed, Anders, and Schneider 2020 ). Environmental degradation leading to water and food insecurity has adversely affected the livelihoods of the population.

The linkages between conflict and the environment are an integral component that constitutes peace and security in the MENA region. The arid natural environment of the region and the changing climate are part of consideration when analyzing conflict in the region ( Smith and Krampe 2019 ). This article focuses on the MENA region and analyzes the role of climate-related environmental factors in violent conflict by drawing evidence from existing research. This systematic review provides an overview of conditions and processes in the climate-conflict nexus. The findings demonstrate that indirect pathways between climate change and violent conflict that are found in other regions such as East Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and West Africa are also applicable to the MENA region. In addition, downstream impacts of water development projects such as dams and irrigation projects in transboundary river basins, weaponization of water by armed groups, and the government’s mismanagement of water and land have particularly affected vulnerability to climate change in the MENA region. Climate change exacerbates water scarcity in the MENA region, which in turn can incentivize policies such as unilaterally building water storages and weaponization of water as an instrument for leverage during armed conflicts. These MENA region-specific dimensions of climate-conflict pathways appear to be influenced by the region’s internal politics, relations between neighboring countries, and conflict dynamics.

The article is organized in the following order. We present the analytical framework of a set of pathways that connects climate change and violent conflict and then an outline of the methodology for a systematic review, which includes the operationalization of the variables and the sampling strategy. This is followed by the description of the methodology for conducting a systematic review. The review of literature is organized into four categories that are specified in the analytical framework, and then a synthesized analysis is detailed. Finally, we conclude by summarizing policy and research relevant implications from the finding in the MENA regional contexts with a set of recommendations.

The climate-conflict nexus is complex. Climate change has implications for various forms of interstate and intrastate conflict, including communal violence, insurgencies, mass civil resistance campaigns, protests, and interpersonal disputes ( Hendrix et al. 2023 ). Specific contexts of environment, socio-political systems, and pre-existing conflict matter when examining the connection between climate-related environmental changes and conflict. The analytical framework is based on a premise that the relationship between climate change and conflict is mediated by social, political, and ecological vulnerability ( Daoudy 2021 ). When climate impacts contribute to social outcomes such as deteriorating livelihood conditions, migration, escalation of armed groups’ tactics, and elite capture, risks of violent conflict can increase. The following outlines four “pathways” between climate change and conflict ( Figure 1 ).

A framework of climate insecurity pathways

The deterioration of livelihood conditions is a centerpiece in linking environmental changes and violent conflict. Climate-exposed sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism are highly likely to suffer from economic damages from climate change ( IPCC 2022 , SPM-11). Consequently, people whose livelihoods are dependent on the natural environment are subjected to additional economic burdens due to the changing climate or climate shocks. Extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, sandstorms, flooding, and long-term changes in the environment can affect the income from the aforementioned sectors ( IPCC 2022 , SPM-11). Populations with low adaptive capacity including marginalized groups are disproportionately affected and vulnerable to short-term economic damages related to climate change ( IPCC 2022 , SPM-8). Demographic changes may accelerate the deterioration of livelihood conditions. Population growth in the MENA region has been rapid from 105 million in 1960 to 486 million in 2021 ( World Bank 2022 ), which means more land and water are required for livelihoods. Climate change can worsen coastal erosion and decline tin he productivity of coastal plains in Israel and Morocco, which are important for food production. Sea-level rise has negative impacts on deltas, coastal plains, and human settlements, and tourism and industrial activities are also expected to decline due to heatwaves and worsening water shortages ( Sowers et al. 2011 ).

Existing studies focus on various socio-economic outcomes of climate and environmental changes and their implications on conflict mobilization. Agriculture, fisheries, and livestock sectors are particularly susceptible to the loss of income due to climate shocks such as prolonged droughts ( von Uexkull 2014 ; Schmidt and Pearson 2016 ). Loss of income due to the deterioration of livelihood conditions can lead individuals to seek alternative sources of livelihood, and some may turn to illicit activities, including joining non-state armed groups ( Barnett and Adger 2007 , 644; Seter 2016 , 5).

Another category of social outcomes includes changes in migration and mobility patterns. Migration is one of the climate adaptation strategies, and subsequent socioeconomic and political impacts of migration can be linked to conflict. Declining livelihood conditions can trigger rural-to-urban migration in search for alternative livelihoods ( Rüttinger et al. 2015 , 27). Long-term climate change and weather shocks may accelerate environmental degradation and declining livelihood conditions. The increased migration flow accelerates urbanization and creates instability in hosting cities with inadequate infrastructure for public services ( Balsari, Dresser, and Leaning 2020 ).

Changing migratory patterns of pastoralist or agropastoral groups, influenced by the availability of grazing land and water, can be linked to clashes with other communities ( Abroulaye et al. 2015 ; Mohammed Ali 2019 ). Violent communal clashes and livestock raiding, which have become increasingly lethal, are linked to intensified competition over scarce resources for pastoralist populations ( Detges 2014 ). For instance, farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel region have become increasingly lethal during recent decades, especially in areas with a higher population and livestock density.

Previous research also focuses on the role of elites who have leveraged social outcomes of climate change for their benefit. Here, elite actors include traditional elites, privileged groups with economic and political power, and even armed group leaders. More frequent and intense climate-related extreme weather events can provide additional opportunities for local elites to capture resources. When climate-induced disasters such as droughts and floods cause humanitarian crises, their basic needs and post-disaster reconstruction would bring in additional resources to the disaster-hit regions, which can be exploited by local elites. Humanitarian aid delivery often needs to cooperate with local elites, whose influence over the aid provision can further strengthen the client-patronage relationship, which is a source of tension ( Uson 2017 ). Elite capture of resources, particularly land, is likely to generate strains within and between communities ( Zaman 1991 ). Local grievances over land rights can be exploited in intercommunal conflict or national conflicts ( Chavunduka and Bromley 2011 ). National elites can exploit local grievances of a population segment that are closely related to climate change. Inadequate government responses to Cyclone Bhola in 1970 led to a devastating human toll in the Bay of Bengal and contributed to the rise of the independence movement, which subsequently led to the secession of Bangladesh ( Busby 2022 , 181).

Changing environmental conditions by climate change may influence armed group tactics and behaviors. Armed groups have utilized the local grievances for a recruitment drive for the youth ( Benjaminsen and Ba 2019 ). Climate change also affects the way of wars are to be fought. In warm climates, prolonged and unpredictable rainy seasons can alter the fighting season and patterns. Due to the reduced water availability in some areas, the strategic importance of water access points and infrastructure may have become more salient. Armed groups can escalate the conflict by weaponizing water by flooding farmland and cities or depriving the population of water ( King 2015 ). Amid droughts and unreliable rainfalls, armed groups may consider water weaponization as a more effective tactic in order to influence and control communities already experiencing water scarcity.

The analytical framework of climate-conflict pathways is applied to analyze findings from existing research relevant to the MENA region. The following details a method of a systematic review of the literature.

This paper leverages from existing evidence by conducting a systematic review of existing studies. Systematic review method has been extensively employed in examining the linkage between climate change and violent conflict ( Ide 2018 ; Nordqvist and Krampe 2018 ; Van Baalen and Mobjörk 2018 ; Tarif 2022 ). Systematic reviews differ from a traditional sense of literature review in a way that it is “focused” and “systematic”; it zooms on a specific research question; and is based on pre-established sets of principles for literature selection. Systematic and focused nature of the review is helpful to “locate previous research, select relevant literature, evaluate contributions and analyses, and synthesize data” ( Denyer and Tranfield 2009 , 671). This approach is particularly useful to yield new insights and provide clarification on frequently debated issues ( Dacombe 2018 , 155). In addition, the method is a highly relevant policy tool that promotes evidence-based policymaking.

We have used the following set of principles for locating, selecting, and evaluating the literature. A Boolean search string containing keywords was composed with keywords from climate change and violent conflict. 2 Search words for climate-related environmental conditions include terms related to the effects of extreme weather events or long-term environmental changes on nature-based livelihoods and water and food insecurity, involuntary displacement, which are adopted from previous research done in a similar scope ( Nordqvist and Krampe 2018 ; Van Baalen and Mobjörk 2018 ; Tarif 2022 ). Several social outcomes are theorized as consequences of climate change such as internal and cross-border migration and elite exploitation of changing environmental conditions. In the paper, violent conflict is defined as the situation when one or more actors engaged in violence against hostile groups due to incompatibilities. This broad definition allows include interstate wars, terrorism to communal clashes involving violence. The definition does not include protests and non-violent actions, which are a crucial class of social phenomena leading to political instability and violence. We paid attention to this element in the analysis but excluded studies exclusively focusing on non-violent conflict (e.g., Ide et al. 2021 ). We used specific keywords relevant to conflict actors and types of conflict in the MENA region.

The Boolean search string was used in searching the abstracts of existing studies in English published during 1989–2020 from Web of Science, a major database of scholarly literature. From the search results, we read the abstracts and selected items with relevance to the relationship between climate-related environmental changes and conflict. The initial screening found 141 articles, which then were reviewed manually for their relevance to the inquiry (see the Online Appendix). In the screening process, we excluded a number of studies that focused on the impact of armed conflict on the environment and studies that did not explicitly focus on violent conflict. Similarly, studies that do not explicitly focus on climate change as in long-term climate trends, climate hazards, and weather events were excluded. Another set of articles that were removed from the list were commentaries and reviews that were not based on either qualitative or quantitative empirical material. While all the selected articles either have at least one country in the MENA region or adapt a regional focus on the MENA, the specific definition of these regions varies. In our literature review, we adhere to a specific list of countries that we recognize as part of the region. 3 After the screening, we manually searched the bibliographies of the selected articles and included eleven relevant articles. In total, forty-one articles are reviewed with a focus on a set of categories stemmed from the analytical framework for explaining the relationship between climate-related environmental change and violent conflict ( Figure 2 ).

Peer-reviewed articles reviewed

The geographical focus of the reviewed studies demonstrates that much of the scholarship focuses on Syria and Iraq. In contrast, North African countries and Gulf countries have received relatively limited attention ( Figure 3 ). The high number of research works focusing on Syria can be explained by the high profile of the contested linkage between climate change and the Syrian civil war. While media narratives have regarded Syria as a prime example of an armed conflict fuelled by climate change and several prominent public figures have publicized it as an illustration of the nexus, it is worth noting that scholarly research has presented differing perspectives on the direct causative role of climate change in conflict escalation ( Miller 2015 ; “Climate Wars - Syria” with Thomas Friedman 2017 ; VICE 2017 ).

The distribution of geographical focus of the reviewed studies

Source: a map drawn by authors.

In this section, we discuss existing explanations from previous research that connect climate-related environmental changes and violent conflict in the MENA region. The linkages between the environmental changes related to climate change and violent conflict constitute a complex chain of events (e.g., Gleditsch 1998 ). Most empirical research contributes to examine parts of the chain under specific temporal and spatial scopes, and this is one reason why it is important to consider the broader implication of each piece of evidence, which then can contribute to the better understanding of the climate-conflict pathways as a larger phenomenon. For clarity and focus, we organized a set of findings from previous studies under four pre-determined analytical categories: worsening livelihood conditions, migration and mobility, armed groups, and elite exploitation. As explained earlier, these categories are not mutually exclusive; rather, explanations under different categories are interlinked and can mutually reinforce each other in different stages of mobilization and conflict.

Direct Link between Climate Change and Violent Conflict

Scholars have examined whether climate impacts such as warmer temperatures and precipitation anomalies are statistically correlated to violent conflict, and several studies have focused on specific countries within the MENA region ( Feizi, Janatabadi, and Torshizi 2019 ; Döring 2020 ; Helman and Zaitchik 2020 ; Helman, Zaitchik, and Funk 2020 ; Sofuoglu and Ay 2020 ; Linke and Ruether 2021 ). Findings from existing research on the direct impact of climate-related factors on violent conflict and political instability suggest that the relationship is not always linear and varied in specific country contexts ( Helman and Zaitchik 2020 ; Helman et al. 2020 ). Water scarcity, for instance, is not only associated with increased communal conflict but also cooperation ( Döring 2020 ). Warming did not unitarily increase or decrease conflict risk—warmer temperatures increased risks of violence in Africa but decreased in the Middle East, and warming did not have a linear effect but had a greater effect on conflict risk in warmer regions ( Helman et al. 2020 ). Increased temperatures and rainfall anomalies are positively associated with political instability in the MENA region ( Helman and Zaitchik 2020 ; Sofuoglu and Ay 2020 ). These findings caution against generalized or simplistic assumptions about the relationship between climate change and violent conflict.

Studies have found an insignificant relationship between water scarcity and violent conflict. Precipitation levels and droughts do not have a direct impact on communal violence in a model including the Middle East and Africa ( Döring 2020 ). The same study also found that communal conflict is more likely to occur in areas with lower rainfalls and limited groundwater availability. Groundwater is less affected by short-term droughts, but prolonged droughts and unsustainable extraction can lead to groundwater shortages, which is the case in northern Syria ( Kelley et al. 2015 ) and Yemen ( Weiss 2015 ). Rainfall variability does not seem to have significantly affected the intensity of civil war violence during the 2011–2019 Syrian civil war ( Linke and Ruether 2021 ). The discussion on climate change’s impact on armed group tactics and behavior is followed in the later part of the paper.

Droughts and water scarcity seem to be a source of social disputes and non-violent conflict ( Feizi et al. 2019 ; Bijani et al. 2020 ; Ide et al. 2021 ). Whether the tension over water scarcity escalates to non-violent conflict or not seems to be contingent on the pre-existing negative socio-political relationships between groups and the types of political systems ( Ide et al. 2021 ). In Iran, irregular rainfalls and water scarcity at the local level are linked to interpersonal conflict and communal tensions and can degrade state legitimacy and contribute to political instability ( Feizi et al. 2019 ; Bijani et al. 2020 ).

Evidence from existing studies on the direct climate-conflict link also alludes to the need to further explore the mechanisms between physical environmental changes and social outcomes. Both large- N and small- N studies can contribute to the understanding of the underlying mechanisms or indirect pathways connecting climate change and conflict. The following sections discuss livelihoods, migration, inadequate management, and armed group behaviors as the pathways between climate-related environmental changes and violent conflict.

Deteriorating Livelihood Conditions

Several studies evaluating the worsening livelihood mechanism in the MENA region focus on the relationship between droughts’ impacts on agriculture and conflict. Severe and frequent droughts due to climate change may affect the region’s food security and livelihoods. In the MENA countries, agriculture, fisheries, and livestock accounts for roughly 15 percent of the total population’s livelihood ( World Bank 2023 ). Agriculture dependency is one of the best predictors of violent conflict ( von Uexkull et al. 2016 ). Indeed, evidence from a study focusing on the MENA region and Africa shows a consistent result that conflict risk is higher in areas where the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods ( Helman and Zaitchik 2020 ).

Droughts’ impact on agriculture is an important area of research in the implications of the changing climate on the deterioration of livelihood conditions. During the last three decades, droughts in the MENA region have become more frequent and severe. Three out of four most severe multi-year droughts in the Fertile Crescent region referring to parts of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Jordan, and Egypt occurred during 1990–2015 ( Kelley et al. 2015 , 3243). The sub-region has historically witnessed periodic droughts; therefore, their agricultural systems are to a degree adaptive to drought conditions and low rainfalls. More frequent and intensifying droughts and drying conditions may jeopardize the population’s adaptive capacity, leading to far-reaching and consequential disruptions in societies. In particular, the 2007–2008 drought severely affected the agricultural production in the Fertile Crescent region. Annual wheat production in Iraq during 2008–2009 declined by 35 percent ( Selby 2019 , 264). Jordan and the West Bank in Palestine also experienced a reduction in agricultural production after the 2007–2008 drought ( Feitelson and Tubi 2017 ). However, none of these countries experienced the same extent of “shock” as in Syria, whose effects some refer to as the “collapse” of the agricultural sector. The 2007–2008 drought is considered “the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure” and decimation of livestock populations in northeast Syria ( Kelley et al. 2015 , 3241).

A dozen of the reviewed authors have probed the linkage between the 2007 and 2008 multi-year droughts and their impacts on agricultural and livestock production and the Syrian conflict using quantitative and qualitative methods ( De Châtel 2014 ; Gleick 2014 ; Kelley et al. 2015 ; Eklund and Thompson 2017 ; Selby et al. 2017 ; Ide 2018 ; Karnieli et al. 2019 ; Ash and Obradovich 2020 ; Daoudy 2020a , 2021 ; Eklund et al. 2022 ). These reviewed research works have disagreed on what extent the drought’s contribution to the sharp decline in agricultural production and rural livelihood in Syria. Kelley et al. (2015 ) is one of the major empirical studies that argues for the linkage between the multi-year drought and the political instability, which argument is similar to Gleick (2014 ). Other studies have refuted the causal linkage between the drought and the Syrian civil war, but their core reasons for arguing against it have varied.

Several authors point out that the impact of climate shocks on livelihoods is mediated by water governance decisions. This argument downplays the role of climate change as the main driver of livelihood deterioration rather than a contributing factor. Despite being affected by similar rainfall deficits during 2007–2008, farmers in northern Syria generally experienced far worse consequences in productivity compared to northwest Iraq and southeast Turkey ( Eklund and Thompson 2017 ). Turkey’s substantial investment in water infrastructure and placing policies for better management during the 1990s and 2000s seem to have reduced their vulnerability to droughts ( Kelley et al. 2015 ; Eklund and Thompson 2017 ). On the contrary, the Syrian regime’s agricultural expansion policy, unsustainable groundwater use, and economic policy have exacerbated the population’s drought vulnerability. Agricultural expansion schemes in Syria more than doubled the irrigated area from 650,000 ha in 1985 to 1.4 million ha in 2005, driven by “a vision of development through agrarian modernization” ( Selby 2019 , 268). The policy overlooked physical limitations of groundwater resources by over-extracting water from aquifers at a rate of 300 percent or more than the basin’s yield and depleting aquifers prior to the 2007–2008 drought ( Selby 2019 , 266). Groundwater depletion in the region has a major effect on drought vulnerability because groundwater is an important source of water during low rainfall years ( Kelley et al. 2015 ).

Weiss (2015 ) makes a similar observation in Yemen, indicating that governance issues are mainly responsible for groundwater depletion in the country rather than climate-related environmental changes. Factors related to agrarian political economy and governance capacities further affect the vulnerability. The government’s capacity to deal with environmental changes and their impact on local economies and livelihoods is pointed out to be a key mediating factor in the linkage between climate change and violent conflict. The issues related to mismanagement and elite exploitation of climate change are further discussed in the later section of the article.

A few studies found differing climate impacts based on gender and ethnicity. Vulnerability to climate change varies between communities and countries, and intersectional identities of the affected people such as gender, age, and ethnicity influence their capacity to adapt to climate change and resilience ( Thomas et al. 2019 ). Evidence from Iran shows how women are forced to carry the “double burden” of doing off-farm work activities such as weeding or thinning cotton for minimal wages, in addition to the regular household and on-farm tasks ( Keshavarz, Karami, and Vanclay 2013 ). In Syria, the mechanization of agriculture has led to a significant loss of rural employment and disproportionately affected women ( Selby 2019 , 267). The disproportionate effect on women is related to structural gender inequality restricting women’s economic opportunities and wealth accumulation ( Selby 2019 ). This finding aligns with previous literature linking gender and climate change indicating that women are often worse affected by climate impacts due to restrictive norms and rights ( Denton 2002 ). In Israel, pastoralists are often disadvantaged due to the Israeli state’s resource allocation policies prioritizing farmers. In the northern Negev region, the state’s land appropriation disproportionately affected agri-pastoralist Bedouin tribes during the early 1900s. This has led to higher vulnerability of the Bedouins during droughts ( Tubi and Feitelson 2016 ). A similar pattern of marginalization is found in Hasakah, a region in northern Syria, where the state turned open range lands into farmlands ( Selby 2019 ). The findings on differing vulnerability and impacts on livelihoods are based on a handful of studies, and intersectional approaches are generally absent in most studies reviewed in the analytic essay.

Changes in Migration and Mobility Patterns

Migration represents a critical adaptation strategy for populations affected by climate-induced environmental changes. Existing research examines various linkages between climate-induced environmental changes and migration in the MENA region. The main discussions are related to the contribution of climate shocks in internal and international migration and migration as a source of political instability and conflict. Existing evidence in the reviewed studies does not fully confirm that climate shocks and changing climate conditions are the primary drivers of internal or international migration. The link between displacement and violent conflict seems to be contested as well.

One of the predominant narratives links climate, migration, and insecurity theorizes worsening of livelihood conditions due to climate change has led to distressed migration of rural population to urban or peri-urban areas, which can contribute to greater political instability ( Gleick 2014 ; Kelley et al. 2015 ; Feitelson and Tubi 2017 ; Ash and Obradovich 2020 ). This argument gained prominence after out-migration from drought-affected regions in northern Syria in 2008 and the agricultural sector collapse in 2010 preceded the 2011 uprising.

Several studies focus on empirically examining the migration patterns after the 2007–2008 droughts in the Levant ( De Châtel 2014 ; Gleick 2014 ; Kelley et al. 2015 ; Ash and Obradovich 2020 ). There seems to be a wide-ranging estimation of the scale of internal migration in Syria during this time ( Ide 2018 ). While acknowledging the multiple factors contributing to migration, researchers have debated on the number of displaced people in northern Syria and Iraq amid the 2007–2008 drought. While Gleick (2014 , 334) and  Kelley et al . ( 2015 , 3241–2) estimate ∼1.5 million people to be internally displaced, others suggest 40–60,000 households or ∼ 300,000 displaced people ( Selby et al. 2017 , 254). Several methods are employed in estimating drought-induced migration. For instance, Ash and Obradovich (2020 ) used nightlight intensity as a proxy measure for population change, which seemed to detect the changes in population in drought-affected regions. Satellite imagery can be analyzed for measuring agricultural land use, which can be a proxy indicator for out-migration ( Eklund et al. 2022 ). Others relied on official statistics and survey data, which are based on a combination of census, fieldwork, and expert assessment (e.g., OCHA 2009 ). Nightlight intensity and satellite imagery are effective measurements of population changes, but remote sensing data provide little context about who moved, to where, and why. Fieldwork-based studies such as De Châtel (2014 ) provide insights into the socio-economic circumstances of migrants and their political orientation. A UN rapid assessment report is based on various UN-led field reports and assessments during 2006–2008 and supplies valuable on-the-ground information including changing migration patterns, children’s school enrollment, and water availability ( OCHA 2009 ). The evidence indicates that migration after the drought was indeed significant, although we cannot exactly say the scale of it. The question is whether these migrants play a role in the subsequent uprising and civil war.

Critics of this narrative argue that the Syrian uprising emerged due to political discontent, economic recession, youth unemployment, discrimination, and injustice, not because of the mass climate migrants ( De Châtel 2014 ; Selby et al. 2017 ; Daoudy 2020a ). Eklund et al. (2022 ) suggest migration triggered by the 2007–2008 droughts did not play a significant role in the uprising because migrants were likely to have returned as early as 2010 based on the satellite images showing full recovery of agricultural activities in drought-affected areas ( Eklund et al. 2022 ). Rural-to-urban migration in the MENA region is rather influenced by pre-existing socio-economic conditions and political decisions. For example, in Syria, the introduction of neoliberal agrarian policies by the government generated a significant degree of insecurity in the rural populations and prompted rural-to-urban migration ( De Châtel 2014 ; Selby 2019 ). And region’s demographic trend has a much greater and long-lasting impact on the pressure in urban areas. For instance, the urban population in Syria is estimated to have grown from 8.9 million in 2002 to 13.8 million in 2010, and most migrants lived in informal settlements with poor infrastructure and no jobs ( Kelley et al. 2015 ).

The narratives on climate change and migration in the MENA region in existing literature reflect how countries perceive climate-induced migration as a source of conflict and insecurity. Jordan, for instance, fears the influx of migration from the MENA region, mostly Palestine, Iraq, and Syria, would worsen the country’s water scarcity and thus security ( Weinthal, Zawahri, and Sowers 2015 ). Fears of “climate refugees” from Africa have shaped Israel’s discriminatory discourses and practices against African refugees and Bedouin communities inside the country ( Weinthal et al. 2015 ). Media reports have suggested that climate shocks in the MENA regions, where asylum seekers and irregular migrants originated from, have affected their decision to migrate ( O'Hagan 2015 ). More than 2.2 million migrants without legal permits have amassed at EU external borders during 2009–2017, and most migrants during this period were from the MENA region ( Cottier and Salehyan 2021 , 2).

Findings from existing research refute the idea of climate shocks would trigger refugee flows from the MENA region. Climate shocks and precipitation deficits are not linked to the increase of out-migration from the MENA region to Europe ( Abel et al. 2019 ; Cottier and Salehyan 2021 ). Severe droughts and drier weather conditions in the MENA region are associated with the reduced migration flow to Europe, which is contradictory from the popular media narrative about “climate refugees” ( Cottier and Salehyan 2021 ). This finding alone suggests that migration can be an “investment,” because the extra income generated from additional rain reduces financial barriers to emigrating ( Cottier and Salehyan 2021 , 6). The correlation between rainfall variability and asylum-seeking flows has been found during 2010–2012 when the Arab Spring swept a dozen MENA countries but not during other periods between 2006 and 2015 ( Abel et al. 2019 ). This finding demonstrates that the impact of climate change on generating asylum-seeking flows seems to be conditional on the origin country’s political stability.

Armed Group’s Tactical Considerations

Existing research specifically focusing on how climate change affects armed groups’ tactics is sparse in the MENA region (exception of Linke and Ruether 2021 ), but several research works demonstrate that armed groups may escalate their tactics due to the increased environmental stress on water and agricultural land. Changing climate conditions and weather shocks adversely affect water availability for agriculture. This trend underscores the notion that the strategic importance of controlling water and water infrastructure could emerge as an effective instrument for exerting pressure to local populations in times of armed conflicts. Previous research supplies evidence on how water is weaponized by armed groups, which is a case of escalation of tactics ( Grech-Madin 2020 ). Water weaponization is defined as the “intentional or unintentional damage or destruction of (sensitive) components of the water infrastructure like dams, treatment plants, pumping stations, piping and canal systems, sewage plants, reservoirs, wells, etc” ( von Lossow 2016 , 84).

Water has been used as both a target and a weapon by state and non-state actors. Existing studies focus on how non-state armed groups and government militaries have strategically attacked or captured water and other environmental infrastructure ( King 2015 ; von Lossow 2016 ; Sowers, Weinthal, and Zawahri 2017 ; Gleick 2019 ; Daoudy 2020b ). Water scarcity in the region is an incentivizing factor for government troops and armed groups to use water to incur damage to the local population. Attacks on water pipes, sanitation and desalination plants, water treatment, pumping and distribution facilities, and dams have occurred in Syria, Libya, and Yemen during civil wars. Targeting of water infrastructure also occurs in protracted conflict situations such as the Israel and Palestine conflict when Israel was accused of attacking wells in Gaza City ( von Lossow 2016 , 84). Particular attention has been drawn to rebel groups’ ability to use water for strategic but as well psychological terrorism ( King 2015 ).

The weaponization of water is not limited to targeting water infrastructure during wartime. Increasing water scarcity and the importance of water access influence the strategic calculation by armed groups on when and where they would deploy violence ( King 2015 ). Non-state armed groups such as the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq are known to have fought over the control of water infrastructure in the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers as part of their expansion strategy ( von Lossow 2016 ). Armed groups fight more intensely during the growing season, which is linked to tax revenue from agricultural harvest and control of the population who rely on farming ( Linke and Ruether 2021 , 116).

Armed groups can also use water as a tool of governance. By providing water and electricity to the local population, the Islamic State achieved ideological credibility as well as legitimacy over the local population, which was a core component of the IS claim of statehood ( King 2015 ; von Lossow 2016 ). Supplying water is a crucial governance function, so armed groups can obstruct water infrastructure to damage the conflict party’s control and legitimacy.

Elite Exploitation

Previous research demonstrates how elite exploitation is linked to protests and violent conflict by focusing on corruption, elite capture of disaster relief, and elite bias in the MENA region. Political patronage and ethnic, tribal, and religious networks for political mobilization shape elite behavior in the region. Political patronage is not unique to the MENA region, but clientelism explains the viability of political networks of some political elites in the MENA region who maintained power through providing resources and preferential treatment in return for votes, loyalty, and compliance ( Herb 1999 ; Haddad 2012 ). Social fabrics of the MENA are woven with diverse ethnic, tribal, and religious groups, and these minorities have also been part of political cleavage structures ( Belge and Karakoç 2015 ). Political mobilization along ethnic, tribal, and religious lines has been effective in the contexts when these identities are contested ( Yiftachel 1996 ). In the following, three main findings from existing research are outlined.

Climate change may increase opportunities for elites to appropriate humanitarian aid for their benefit, and elite exploitation can worsen the conflict risk amid climate-induced disasters and environmental scarcities. The risk of politicization of humanitarian and development aid has been extensively studied ( Doocy and Lyles 2018 ; Alqatabry and Butcher 2020 ). In situations of climate-induced disasters, local and central elites can have a significant influence on the planning and distribution of humanitarian aid. Political elites can be biased in their relationship with local elites, and this elite bias can have implications for local-level politics ( Brosché and Elfversson 2012 ). After the 2007–2008 drought in Syria, the Assad government directed the UN-led relief efforts to almost entirely focus on the Arab district of Al-Shaddadi, although the Kurdish communities were equally or worse affected ( Selby 2019 , 270). Unequal aid distribution can increase intercommunal tensions during droughts. State intervention can reduce the risk of conflict amid climate-related natural disasters. Tubi and Feitelson (2016 ) demonstrate how proactive relief provisions during droughts have reduced communal violence between Bedouin herders and Jewish farmers in Israel. The findings from Tubi and Feitelson (2016 ) confirm that the state’s capacity to adapt and absorb shocks remains essential for the inhabitants’ perceived marginal benefits and the opportunity cost of conflict ( Post et al. 2016 ).

Powerful elites compete over acquiring land and water resources from weak and vulnerable groups. Mismanagement and corruption in the public sector are other factors that affect the population’s access to water and basic services, which are simultaneously hampered by climate change ( Kim and Swain 2017 ). In Yemen, most communal conflict occurs over water and land when tribal elites compete with one another ( Weiss 2015 ). In southern Iraq, a large volume of water is illegally diverted for commercial farms owned by elites, which worsens water scarcity ( Mason 2022 ). Donor-funded projects for repairing Basra’s aging water infrastructure after the 2003 invasion, worth 2 billion USD over nearly two decades, were succumbed to widespread corruption ( Mason 2022 ). Bureaucratic procedures endow opportunities for officials to extort bribes such as well-licensing in Syria and water development project licensing in Lebanon ( De Châtel 2014 ; Mason and Khawlie 2016 ). In Syria, the government’s requirement to annually renew well licences was an opportunity for security personnel and local officials to collect bribes ( De Châtel 2014 , 12). Protestors in Dara’a, Syria initially demanded to end corruption in the water sector ( De Châtel 2014 ). In Iraq, the epidemic of corruption in the water sector endowed youth and urban poor grievances against the state, which led to widespread protests ( Human Rights Watch 2019 ).

Although the MENA region is a climate change hotspot, governance failures, and mismanagement account for declining water access ( Mason and Khawlie 2016 ; Selby et al. 2017 ; Daoudy 2021 ). Elites in the MENA region have leveraged climate change to explain some of the governance failures in the water and agriculture sectors. The Syrian state and security apparatus have exploited the narratives around climate change by portraying Syria as a “naturally water-scarce” country, although the reality on the ground shows a man-made water crisis due to corruption and inefficient management by the government authorities ( De Châtel 2014 , 9). Similarly, the Lebanese government blamed climate change for the reduction of water flow in the Hasbani Basin, while civil society representatives accused the government of “systematically neglecting their concerns” about water access ( Mason and Khawlie 2016 , 1352–3).

Tensions over transboundary water sharing may continue to rise in the MENA region ( Bulloch and Darwish 1993 ; Amery 2002 ). The Euphrates River and Tigris River are important water sources for Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran, and Turkey controls the water flow through the investment in the Southeastern Anatolia Project consisting of twenty-two large reservoirs and nineteen hydroelectric power stations on the upper tributaries of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. Karnieli et al. (2019 ) argue that Turkey’s transboundary investment and dam filling to be the primary driver of 2007–2008 droughts in Syria instead of climate change. This might be inconsequential because Turkey released additional water to Syria during the drought (see Kibaroglu and Scheumann 2011 , 297). As long as the downstream countries, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, see their domestic water problems to be attributed to the upstream dams in Turkey (e.g., Al-Muqdadi et al. 2016 ), transboundary rivers can be a source of interstate tension—although it is unlikely to develop into a full-scale armed conflict ( Bencala and Dabelko 2008 ). The impact of climate change in transboundary water governance is still an under-researched area that deserves more attention. Another area that can be a subject for further research is a growing sub-national competition over water such as brewing tension within Iraq due to the Kurdish Regional Government’s dam building plans ( Tinti 2023 ).

Existing evidence demonstrates that climate impacts, particularly droughts and drying trends, contribute to armed conflict in various ways. This section weighs in on the findings from the analysis to evaluate the overall framework of pathways to climate insecurity in the MENA region. The synthesis of findings highlights consensus and disagreement in existing studies and identifies the areas for further research.

Water scarcity in the MENA region is apparent at multiple scales, from domestic to transboundary, and has various implications for social vulnerability and political stability. The region’s water insecurity is as much driven by governance challenges as climatic and environmental trends. Severe droughts in the Levant during 2007–2009 appear to have led to the decline in agricultural production in the affected areas, but the drought vulnerability is mediated by groundwater availability, the viability of irrigation systems, and the capacity of water infrastructure ( Kelley et al. 2015 ). Decades of mismanagement of water resources and institutional failings undermine adaptive capacities in the region, demonstrated in examples from Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq ( Weiss 2015 ; Mason and Khawlie 2016 ; Selby 2019 ; Mason 2022 ).

The depletion of groundwater in parts of the MENA region is largely attributed to the government’s unsustainable agricultural and water policies. Groundwater offers an important source of reserve during droughts, and the unsustainable use of groundwater adversely affects farmers’ drought vulnerability. Government subsidies on fuels encouraged farmers to install diesel pumps to use groundwater for irrigation, without consideration for sustainability in Yemen and Syria ( Weiss 2015 ; Selby 2019 ). These governments’ agricultural and economic policies resulted in farmers growing more water-intensive crops such as cotton and citrus fruits, which accelerated groundwater depletion. Political elites used fuel subsidies to ensure support from farmers at the expense of the environment. These unsustainable water and agricultural policies are not technical “mismanagement” but embedded in a much larger political context and ideology ( Daoudy 2021 , 13). Considering political factors in climate vulnerability is an important aspect to understand the climate-conflict nexus in the MENA region.

This analytic essay also looks into the important debate about the contribution of droughts in the Syrian uprising and subsequent civil war. Fourteen out of thirty-nine existing studies focus on the Syrian conflict and examine various linkages between the conflict and climate-related environmental factors. The popular narrative portrays the Syrian civil war as a climate conflict that is triggered by climate-induced agricultural collapse resulting in mass displacement ( Gleick 2014 ; Werrell, Femia, and Sternberg 2015 ). Research refutes this narrative by contesting the empirical foundations. Drought-displaced people in urban or peri-urban areas did not participate in street protests ( De Châtel 2014 ), and a significant proportion of the displaced returned to northern Syria before the revolution began ( Eklund and Thompson 2017 ; Eklund et al. 2022 ). Reviewing the literature demonstrates that attributing the onset of the Syrian civil war solely to climate change lacks empirical substantiation. Nevertheless, climate-related environmental changes, such as falling groundwater levels, have significant impact on natural resources and livelihoods, which can consequently undermine human and environment security.

Internal migration is more prominent than international migration in the research focusing on climate-induced mobility in the MENA region. This is similar to other studies with different regional focus (e.g., Burrows and Kinney 2016 ). The disruption of the rural livelihoods appears to be a strong push factor in Syria, which can be worsened by droughts ( Fröhlich 2016 ). Data on migration seem to be a challenge in unpacking this complex phenomenon. It is challenging to disentangle environmental changes from economic drivers in migration decision-making. Satellite-based data provide reasonable proxy measures for in- and out-migration in locations (e.g., Ash and Obradovich 2020 ), but they do not offer insights on who moved from where to where and why. More studies incorporating qualitative data are needed to further the understanding of climate-induced internal migration.

There is clear evidence that armed groups have escalated their tactics by weaponizing water in the MENA region. Several studies demonstrate how armed groups escalate their tactics by weaponizing water. Such a wartime trend indicates a heightened risk for civilians and long-term consequences by destructing key water infrastructures. This finding is highly policy relevant for strengthening and enforcing international laws for civilian protection during armed conflict (see Grech-Madin 2021 ). In relation to the armed group’s tactics, more research is needed to unpack the role of climate-related environmental factors in the armed group’s recruitment and tactical decisions.

The findings on differing vulnerability and gendered impacts on livelihoods are based on a handful of studies, and intersectional approaches are generally absent in most studies reviewed in the analytic essay. How climate shocks have varying impacts on people based on their gender, age, livelihoods, ethnicity, and combinations of these identities is missing. If marginalization and grievances are key processes of climate-induced conflict, how climate change affects different segments of the population differently needs better understanding.

The relationship between climate change and violent conflict is primarily indirect and varied, cautioning against generalized assumptions. How climate change influences the risk of violent conflict in the MENA region is mediated by political economy, institutional shortcomings, and elite competition. The risk of violent conflict is contingent on pre-existing negative socio-political relationships, types of political systems, and different climate vulnerabilities of various social groups. Gendered climate vulnerabilities need better understanding for establishing the linkage between climate vulnerability and insecurity. Carefully examining existing evidence is important for both over general climate security discussions as well as for the policy discussions on the MENA region, which has remained a focal point of scholarly and policy debates concerning climate security ( Daoudy, Sowers, and Weinthal 2022 , 7).

Disentangling specific climate impacts is also crucial for enhancing government’s climate adaptation and disaster mitigation policies in the MENA region. Civil society representatives from the MENA region have been concerned that states and political elites blame climate change to legitimize inequalities and to devoid accountability ( Selby et al. 2017 ; Kausch 2022 ). As existing research demonstrated, water and food insecurity in the region is driven by a lack of state capacity to properly manage natural resources and the integrity of public institutions in the MENA region.

Future research should pay attention to other types of climate hazards, including floods, heatwaves, and dust storms. Existing research primarily focuses on droughts and precipitation deficits, failing to account for heatwaves and flooding, which also are common in the MENA region. Floods are understudied despite their severe humanitarian impact. For instance, heavy flooding forced more than 84,000 people to displacement in Yemen, 13,000 people in Iran, and 5,000 people in northern Iraq in 2021 ( IDMC 2023 ). How flooding affects livelihood conditions and social vulnerability would be considerably different from droughts. Studies from other regions suggest floods are not associated with communal violence ( Petrova 2022 ). Ultra-heatwaves are likely to worsen without substantial government interventions ( Zittis et al. 2021 ), and their impact on oil exploitation, tourism, and urban areas demands more research. Oil and tourism industries are economic backbones of several MENA countries, and adverse impact on these sectors is likely lead to ripple effects on the society. A decrease in oil production due to extreme heatwaves and dust storms will affect public service provisions by the governments, which can be a source of instability as previous research points out (e.g., Mason 2022 ).

Future research should look at non-violent conflicts, especially protests linked to climate change in the MENA region. There is already a substantial debate on the role of food security in political stability, such as in the Arab Spring ( Werrell and Femia 2013 ; Schilling et al. 2020 ). And few studies focus on under what conditions droughts and floods can lead to non-violent conflicts such as political unrest and protests ( Ide, Kristensen, and Bartusevičius 2021 ; Ide et al. 2021 ). Youth climate activists in the region have demanded their respective governments to take proactive climate actions ( Altaeb 2022 ). Climate change is becoming a politically salient topic, and the MENA region’s civil society has voiced its concerns about the inaction and growing uncertainty about the future. How the region’s climate activism interacts with politics appears to be an important area for future research.

The narrative about climate change and conflict in the MENA region is shaped by both scientific projections but also a “long history of colonial and postcolonial scholarship invoking environmental determinism as an explanation for underdevelopment” ( Daoudy et al. 2022 , 7). This calls for more “open” and critical approaches in researching the climate-conflict nexus in the region. The evidence from existing studies shows that current water and food insecurity in the MENA region are outcomes of domestic politics and institutional shortcomings rather than past climate change. This highlights the importance of governance reforms for enhancing adaptative capacity in the region ( Sowers et al. 2011 ). Improved understanding of how vulnerability to climate change interacts with political systems, institutions, and social relations can inform policy development. This enhanced understanding can equip relevant stakeholders to more effectively anticipate, prevent, and respond to the intricate web of risks entwining climate change and violent conflict, while concurrently enhancing resilience-building efforts.

We adopt SIPRI’s definition of the MENA region, which includes Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), North Yemen (–1990), South Yemen (–1990) and Yemen; (NA) Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. See “Regional coverage,” See SIPRI databases at https://www.sipri.org/databases/regional-coverage .

The search string was the following: AB=((climat* OR "climat* change" OR "climat* variability" OR rainfall OR precipitation OR drought OR "water scarcity" OR "land degradation" OR weather OR disaster OR temperature OR warming OR "sea level rise" OR desertification OR famine OR “soil erosion” OR flood*) AND (conflict OR jihad* OR armed OR insurgen* OR rebel* OR terror* OR violen* OR war) AND ("middle east*" OR “north africa*” OR MENA OR algeria OR bahrain OR egypt OR iran OR Iraq OR israel OR jordan OR kuwait OR lebanon OR libya OR morocco OR oman OR palestin* OR qatar OR “saudi arabia” OR syria OR tunisia OR “united arab emirates” OR yemen OR “western sahara”)).

Here, we use SIPRI’s definition of the MENA region, which includes Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), North Yemen (–1990), South Yemen (–1990) and Yemen; (NA) Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia.

Author’s note : This work is supported by funding from the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs as part of SIPRI’s Climate Change and Security Project and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for SIPRI’s Climate-Related Security and Development Risks Project. We would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback for improving the manuscript. We are indebted to Florian Krampe, Farah Hegazi, and Kheira Tarif for their helpful comments throughout the writing process.

Abel Guy J. , Brottrager Michael , Cuaresma Jesus Crespo , Muttarak Raya . 2019 . “ Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration .” Global Environmental Change—Human and Policy Dimensions . 54 : 239 – 49 .

Google Scholar

Abrahams Daniel. 2020 . “ Conflict in Abundance and Peacebuilding in Scarcity: Challenges and Opportunities in Addressing Climate Change and Conflict .” World Development . 132 : 104998 .

Abroulaye Sanfo , Issa Savadogo , Abalo Kulo E , Nouhoun Zampaligre . “ 2015 . ” Climate Change: A Driver of Crop Farmers-Agro Pastoralists Conflicts in Burkina Faso . International Journal of Applied Science and Technology . 5 : 92 – 104 .

Almazroui Mansour , Saeed Fahad , Saeed Sajjad , Islam M. Nazrul , Ismail Muhammad , Klutse Nana Ama Browne , Siddiqui   Muhammad Haroon . 2020 . “ Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6 .” Earth Systems and Environment . 4 : 455 – 75 .

Al-Muqdadi Sameh W. , Omer Mohammed F. , Abo Rudy , Naghshineh Alice . 2016 . “ Dispute over Water Resource Management—Iraq and Turkey .” Journal of Environmental Protection . 7 : 1096 – 103 .

Alqatabry Hameed , Butcher Charity . 2020 . “ Humanitarian Aid in Yemen: Collaboration or Co-Optation? .” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development . 15 : 250 – 5 .

Altaeb Malak. 2022 . A Silenced MENA Youth Climate Activism Under COP 27 . The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy . Accessed March 8, 2023. https://timep.org/2022/11/09/a-silenced-mena-youth-climate-activism-under-cop-27/ .

Amery H.A. 2002 . “ Water Wars in the Middle East: A Looming Threat .” Geographical Journal . 168 : 313 – 23 .

Ash Konstantin , Obradovich Nick . 2020 . “ Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset .” Journal of Conflict Resolution . 64 : 3 – 31 .

Balsari Satchit , Dresser Caleb , Leaning Jennifer . 2020 . “ Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife .” Current Environmental Health Reports . 7 : 404 – 14 .

Barnett Jon , Neil Adger W . 2007 . “ Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict .” Political Geography . 26 : 639 – 55 .

Belge Ceren , Karakoç Ekrem . 2015 . “ Minorities in the Middle East: Ethnicity, Religion, and Support for Authoritarianism .” Political Research Quarterly . 68 : 280 – 92 .

Bencala Karin R. , Dabelko Geoffrey D. . 2008 . “ Water Wars: Obscuring Opportunities .” Journal of International Affairs . 61 : 21 .

Benjaminsen Tor A. , Ba Boubacar . 2019 . “ Why Do Pastoralists in Mali Join Jihadist Groups? A Political Ecological Explanation .” The Journal of Peasant Studies . 46 : 1 – 20 .

Bijani Masoud , Hayati Dariush , Azadi Hossein , Tanaskovik Vjekoslav , Witlox Frank . 2020 . “ Causes and Consequences of the Conflict among Agricultural Water Beneficiaries in Iran .” Sustainability . 12 ( 16 ): 6630 .

Black Richard , Busby Joshua , Dabelko Geoffrey D. , de Coning Cedric , Maalim Hafsa , McAllister Claire , Ndiloseh Melvis , et al.  2022 . Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk . Stockholm : Stockholm International Peace Research Institute . Accessed April 29, 2022. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2022/other-publications/environment-peace-security-new-era-risk .

Google Preview

Borghesi Simone , Ticci Elisa . 2019 . “ Climate Change in the MENA Region: Environmental Risks, Socioeconomic Effects and Policy Challenges for the Future .” In Midterranean Yearbook , Barcelona : European Institute of the Mediterranean .

Brosché Johan , Elfversson Emma . 2012 . “ Communal Conflict, Civil War, and the State: Complexities, Connections, and the Case of Sudan .” African Journal on Conflict Resolution . 12 ( 1 ): 33 – 60 .

Brzoska Michael , Fröhlich Christiane . 2016 . “ Climate Change, Migration and Violent Conflict: Vulnerabilities, Pathways and Adaptation Strategies .” Migration and Development . 5 : 190 – 210 .

Bulloch John , Darwish Adel . 1993 . Water Wars: Coming Conflicts in the Middle East . London : St Dedmundsbury Press .

Burrows Kate , Kinney Patrick . 2016 . “ Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus .” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health . 13 : 442 – 59 .

Busby Joshua W. 2022 . States and Nature: The Effects of Climate Change on Security . 1st ed. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Accessed April 11, 2022. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781108957922/type/book .

Chavunduka Charles , Bromley Daniel W. . 2011 . “ Climate, Carbon, Civil War and Flexible Boundaries: Sudan’s Contested Landscape .” Land Use Policy . 28 : 907 – 16 .

“Climate Wars - Syria” with Thomas Friedman . 2017 . Accessed August 8, 2023. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i31v1z–3Z8 .

Cottier Fabien , Salehyan Idean . 2021 . “ Climate Variability and Irregular Migration to the European Union .” Global Environmental Change . 69 : 102275 .

Dacombe Rod. 2018 . “ Systematic Reviews in Political Science: What Can the Approach Contribute to Political Research? ” Political Studies Review . 16 : 148 – 57 .

Daoudy Marwa. 2020a . The Origins of the Syrian Conflict: Climate Change and Human Security . 1st ed. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Accessed June 3, 2022. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781108567053/type/book .

Daoudy Marwa. . 2020b . “ Water Weaponization in the Syrian Conflict: Strategies of Domination and Cooperation .” International Affairs . 96 : 1347 – 66 .

Daoudy Marwa. . 2021 . “ Rethinking the Climate–Conflict Nexus: A Human–Environmental–Climate Security Approach .” Global Environmental Politics . 21 ( 3 ): 4 – 25 .

Daoudy Marwa , Sowers Jeannie , Weinthal Erika . 2022 . “ What Is Climate Security? Framing Risks around Water, Food, and Migration in the Middle East and North Africa .” WIREs Water . 9 ( 3 ): e1582 . Accessed February 20, 2023. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wat2.1582 .

De Châtel Francesca. 2014 . “ The Role of Drought and Climate Change in the Syrian Uprising: Untangling the Triggers of the Revolution .” Middle Eastern Studies . 50 : 521 – 35 .

Denton Fatma. 2002 . “ Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation: Why Does Gender Matter? ” Gender & Development . 10 : 10 – 20 .

Denyer David , Tranfield David , eds. 2009 . “ Producing a Systematic Review .” In The Sage Handbook of Organizational Research Methods . Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage Publications Ltd .

Detges Adrien. 2014 . “ Close-Up on Renewable Resources and Armed Conflict: The Spatial Logic of Pastoralist Violence in Northern Kenya .” Political Geography . 42 : 57 – 65 .

Doocy Shannon , Lyles Emily . 2018 . “ Humanitarian Needs in Government Controlled Areas of Syria .” PLoS Currents . Accessed January 24, 2020. http://currents.plos.org/disasters/?p=35351 .

Döring Stefan. 2020 . “ Come Rain, or Come Wells: How Access to Groundwater Affects Communal Violence .” Political Geography . 76 : 102073 .

Eklund Lina , Theisen Ole Magnus , Baumann Matthias , Tollefsen Andreas Forø , Kuemmerle Tobias , Nielsen Jonas Østergaard . 2022 . “ Societal Drought Vulnerability and the Syrian Climate-Conflict Nexus Are Better Explained by Agriculture than Meteorology .” Communications Earth & Environment . 3 : 85 .

Eklund Lina , Thompson Darcy . 2017 . “ Differences in Resource Management Affects Drought Vulnerability across the Borders between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey .” Ecology and Society . 22 ( 4 ): 11 .

Feitelson Eran , Tubi Amit . 2017 . “ A Main Driver or an Intermediate Variable? Climate Change, Water and Security in the Middle East .” Global Environmental Change . 44 : 39 – 48 .

Feizi Mehdi , Heidarzadeh Janatabadi Najmeh , Torshizi Ahmad Saradari . 2019 . “ Rainfall and Social Disputes in Iran .” Water Policy . 21 : 880 – 93 .

Fröhlich Christiane J. 2016 . “ Climate Migrants as Protestors? Dispelling Misconceptions about Global Environmental Change in Pre-Revolutionary Syria .” Contemporary Levant . 1 : 38 – 50 .

Gaub Florence , Lienard Clémentine . 2021 . Arab Climte Future: Of Risks and Readiness . LU: Publications Office .

Gleditsch Nils Petter . 1998 . “ Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature .” Journal of Peace Research . 35 : 381 – 400 .

Gleditsch Nils Petter . 2012 . “ Whither the Weather? Climate Change and Conflict .” Journal of Peace Research . 49 : 3 – 9 .

Gleick Peter H. 2014 . “ Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria .” Weather, Climate, and Society . 6 : 331 – 40 .

Gleick Peter H. . 2019 . “ Water as a Weapon and Casualty of Armed Conflict: A Review of Recent Water-Related Violence in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen .” WIREs Water . 6 ( 4 ): e1351 . Accessed November 16, 2021. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wat2.1351 .

Grech-Madin Charlotte. 2020 . “ The Water Taboo: Restraining the Weaponisation of Water in International Conflict .” PhD Dissertation . Uppsala University .

Grech-Madin Charlotte. . 2021 . “ Water and Warfare: The Evolution and Operation of the Water Taboo .” International Security . 45 : 84 – 125 .

Haddad Bassam. 2012 . ​​​​​​ Business Networks in Syria: The Political Economy of Authoritarian Resilience . Stanford, CA : Stanford University Press .

Helman David , Zaitchik Benjamin F. . 2020 . “ Temperature Anomalies Affect Violent Conflicts in African and Middle Eastern Warm Regions .” Global Environmental Change—Human and Policy Dimensions . 63 : 102118 .

Helman David , Zaitchik Benjamin F. , Funk Chris . 2020 . “ Climate Has Contrasting Direct and Indirect Effects on Armed Conflicts .” Environmental Research Letters . 15 : 104017 .

Hendrix Cullen S. , Koubi Vally , Selby Jan , Siddiqi Ayesha , von Uexkull Nina . 2023 . “ Climate Change and Conflict .” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment . 4 : 144 – 8 .

Herb Michael. 1999 . All in the Family: Absolutism, Revolution, and Democracy in the Middle Eastern Monarchies . Albany : State University of New York Press .

Human Rights Watch . 2019 . “ Basra Is Thirsty: Iraq’s Failure to Manage the Water Crisis .” Human Rights Watch . Accessed November 23, 2022. https://www.hrw.org/report/2019/07/22/basra-thirsty/iraqs-failure-manage-water-crisis .

Ide Tobias. 2018 . “ Climate War in the Middle East? Drought, the Syrian Civil War and the State of Climate-Conflict Research .” Current Climate Change Reports . 4 : 347 – 54 .

Ide Tobias , Kristensen Anders , Bartusevičius Henrikas . 2021 . “ First Comes the River, Then Comes the Conflict? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Flood-Related Political Unrest .” Journal of Peace Research . 58 : 83 – 97 .

Ide Tobias , Lopez Miguel Rodriguez , Fröhlich Christiane , Scheffran Jürgen . 2021 . “ Pathways to Water Conflict during Drought in the MENA Region .” Journal of Peace Research . 58 : 568 – 82 .

IDMC . 2023 . “ Global Internal Displacement Dataset .” IDMC . Accessed March 23, 2023. https://www.internal-displacement.org/home .

IPCC . 2022 . "Summary for Policymakers." in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability , edited by Pörtner H.-O. , Roberts D.C. , Tignor M. , Poloczanska E.S. , Mintenbeck K. , Alegría A. , Craig M. , Langsdorf S. , Löschke S. , Möller V. , Okem A. , Rama B. . London; New York : Cambridge University Press .

Karnieli Arnon , Shtein Alexandra , Panov Natalya , Weisbrod Noam , Tal Alon . 2019 . “ Was Drought Really the Trigger Behind the Syrian Civil War in 2011? ” Water . 11 : 1564 .

Kausch Kristina. 2022 . “ Middle Eastern Civil Society’s Struggles With the Primacy of Geopolitics—Global Civil Society in a Geopolitical Age: How Great Power Competition Is Reshaping Civic Activism .” Carnegie Europe . Accessed March 23, 2023. https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/11/30/middle-eastern-civil-society-s-struggles-with-primacy-of-geopolitics-pub-88490 .

Kelley Colin P. , Mohtadi Shahrzad , Cane Mark A. , Seager Richard , Kushnir Yochanan . 2015 . “ Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought .” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America . 112 : 3241 – 6 .

Keshavarz Marzieh , Karami Ezatollah , Vanclay Frank . 2013 . “ The Social Experience of Drought in Rural Iran .” Land Use Policy . 30 : 120 – 9 .

Kibaroglu Aysegul , Scheumann Waltina . 2011 . “ Euphrates-Tigris Rivers System: Political Rapprochement and Transboundary Water Cooperation .” In Turkey’s Water Policy , edited by Kramer Annika , Kibaroglu Aysegul , Scheumann Waltina . Berlin : Springer . Accessed June 3, 2022. http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-642-19636-2_16 .

Kim Kyungmee , Swain Ashok . 2017 . “ Crime, Corruption, Terrorism and Beyond: A Typology of Water Crime .” In The Human Face of Water Security , edited by Devlaeminck D. , Adeel Z. , Sandford R. . New York : Springer .

King Marcus DuBois . 2015 . “ The Weaponization of Water in Syria and Iraq .” The Washington Quarterly . 38 : 153 – 69 .

Linke Andrew M , Ruether Brett . 2021 . “ Weather, Wheat, and War: Security Implications of Climate Variability for Conflict in Syria .” Journal of Peace Research . 58 : 114 – 31 .

Mason Michael. 2022 . “ Infrastructure under Pressure: Water Management and State-Making in Southern Iraq .” Geoforum . 132 : 52 – 61 .

Mason Michael , Khawlie Mohamad . 2016 . “ Fluid Sovereignty: State-Nature Relations in the Hasbani Basin, Southern Lebanon .” Annals of the American Association of Geographers . 106 : 1344 – 59 .

Meierding Emily. 2013 . “ Climate Change and Conflict: Avoiding Small Talk about the Weather .” International Studies Review . 15 : 185 – 203 .

Miller Brandon. 2015 . “ Is the Syrian Conflict Linked to Climate Change? ” CNN . Accessed August 8, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2015/11/23/world/is-the-syrian-conflict-linked-to-climate-change/index.html .

Mobjörk Malin , Krampe Florian , Tarif Kheira . 2020 . ​​​​​ Pathways of Climate Insecurity: Guidance for Policymakers . Stockholm : Stockholm International Peace Research Institute . Policy Brief .

Mohamed Mohamed Ali , Anders Julian , Schneider Christoph . 2020 . “ Monitoring of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover in Syria from 2010 to 2018 Using Multitemporal Landsat Imagery and GIS .” Land . 9 : 226 .

Mohammed Ali Ibrahim Mustafa . 2019 . “ The Ecological, Socio-Economic and Political Constraints on Pastoralists’ Access to Water, Blue Nile State (Sudan) .” Nomadic Peoples . 23 : 282 – 302 .

Morales-Muñoz Héctor , Bailey Arwen , Löhr Katharina , Caroli Giulia , Villarino Ma. Eliza J. , LoboGuerrero Ana María , Bonatti Michelle , et al.  2022 . “ Co-Benefits Through Coordination of Climate Action and Peacebuilding: A System Dynamics Model .” Journal of Peacebuilding & Development . 17 : 304 – 23 .

Namdar Razieh , Karami Ezatollah , Keshavarz Marzieh . 2021 . “ Climate Change and Vulnerability: The Case of MENA Countries .” ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information . 10 : 794 .

Nordqvist Pernilla , Krampe Florian . 2018 . Climate Change and Violent Conflict: Sparse Evidence from South Asia and South East Asia .Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. SIPRI Insight for Peace and Security.

OCHA . 2009 . Syria Drought Response Plan . Damascus : United Nations .

O'Hagan Ellie Mae . 2015 . “ Mass Migration Is No ‘Crisis’: It's the New Normal as the Climate Changes .” The Guardian . Accessed February 6, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/18/mass-migration-crisis-refugees-climate-change .

Palik Júlia , Aas Rustad Siri , Berg Harpviken Kristian , Methi Fredrik . 2020 . 35 Conflict Trends in the Middle East . Oslo : Prio . Prio Paper .

Petrova Kristina. 2022 . “ Floods, Communal Conflict and the Role of Local State Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa .” Political Geography . 92 : 102511 .

Post Riley , Hudson Darren , Mitchell Donna , Bell Patrick , Perliger Arie , Williams Ryan . 2016 . “ Rethinking the Water-Food-Climate Nexus and Conflict: An Opportunity Cost Approach .” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy . 38 : 563 – 77 .

Rüttinger Lukas , Smith Dan , Stang Gerald , Tänzler Dennis , Vivekananda Janani . 2015 . A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks . Berlin : Adelphi; International Alert; Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; European Union Institute for Security Studies . Accessed February 24, 2021. https://climate-diplomacy.org/sites/default/files/2020-11/NewClimateForPeace_FullReport_small_0.pdf .

Sakaguchi Kendra , Varughese Anil , Auld Graeme . 2017 . “ Climate Wars? A Systematic Review of Empirical Analyses on the Links between Climate Change and Violent Conflict .” International Studies Review . 19 : 622 – 45 .

Schilling Janpeter , Hertig Elke , Tramblay Yves , Scheffran Jürgen . 2020 . “ Climate Change Vulnerability, Water Resources and Social Implications in North Africa .” Regional Environmental Change . 20 : 15 .

Schmidt Matthias , Pearson Olivia . 2016 . “ Pastoral Livelihoods under Pressure: Ecological, Political and Socioeconomic Transitions in Afar (Ethiopia) .” Journal of Arid Environments . 124 : 22 – 30 .

Selby Jan. 2019 . “ Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War, Part II: The Jazira’s Agrarian Crisis .” Geoforum . 101 : 260 – 74 .

Selby Jan , Dahi Omar S. , Fröhlich Christiane , Hulme Mike . 2017 . “ Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War Revisited .” Political Geography . 60 : 232 – 44 .

Seter Hanne. 2016 . “ Connecting Climate Variability and Conflict: Implications for Empirical Testing .” Political Geography . 53 : 1 – 9 .

Sieghart Lia Carol , Betre Mahlette . 2018 . Challenges and Opportunities for the World’s Most Water Stressed Region . Washington, DC : World Bank . Quick Note Series .

Smith Dan , Krampe Florian . 2019 . “ Climate-Related Security Risks in the Middle East .” In Routledge Handbook on Middle East Security , edited by Jägerskog A. , Schulz M. , Swain A. . London : Routledge .

Sofuoglu Emrah , Ay Ahmet . 2020 . “ The Relationship between Climate Change and Political Instability: The Case of MENA Countries (1985:01–2016:12) .” Environmental Science and Pollution Research . 27 : 14033 – 43 .

Sowers Jeannie , Vengosh Avner , Weinthal Erika . 2011 . “ Climate Change, Water Resources, and the Politics of Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa .” Climatic Change . 104 : 599 – 627 .

Sowers Jeannie L , Weinthal Erika , Zawahri Neda . 2017 . “ Targeting Environmental Infrastructures, International Law, and Civilians in the New Middle Eastern Wars .” Security Dialogue . 48 : 410 – 30 .

Tanchum Michaël. 2021 . The Fragile State of Food Security in the Maghreb: Implication of the 2021 Cereal Grains Crisis in Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco . Washington, DC : The Middle East Instisute .

Tarif Kheira. 2022 . Climate Change and Violent Conflict in West Africa: Assessing the Evidence . Stockholm International Peace Research Institute . Accessed April 4, 2022. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2022/sipri-insights-peace-and-security/climate-change-and-violent-conflict-west-africa-assessing-evidence .

Thomas Kimberley , Dean Hardy R. , Lazrus Heather , Mendez Michael , Orlove Ben , Rivera-Collazo Isabel , Timmons Roberts J. , et al.  2019 . “ Explaining Differential Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Social Science Review .” WIREs Climate Change . 10 : e565 .

Tinti Alessandro. 2023 . “ Scales of Justice. Large Dams and Water Rights in the Tigris–Euphrates Basin .” Policy and Society . 42 ( 2 ): 184 – 96 .

Tubi Amit , Feitelson Eran . 2016 . “ Drought and Cooperation in a Conflict Prone Area: Bedouin Herders and Jewish Farmers in Israel’s Northern Negev, 1957–1963 .” Political Geography . 51 : 30 – 42 .

von Lossow Tobias. 2016 . “ The Rebirth of Water as a Weapon: IS in Syria and Iraq .” The International Spectator . 51 : 82 – 99 .

von Uexkull Nina. 2014 . “ Sustained Drought, Vulnerability and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa .” Political Geography . 43 : 16 – 26 .

von Uexkull Nina , Croicu Mihai , Fjelde Hanne , Buhaug Halvard . 2016 . “ Civil Conflict Sensitivity to Growing-Season Drought .” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . 113 : 12391 – 6 .

Uson Maria , Angelina M. 2017 . “ Natural Disasters and Land Grabs: The Politics of Their Intersection in the Philippines Following Super Typhoon Haiyan .” Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue canadienne d’études du développement . 38 : 414 – 30 .

Van Baalen Sebastian , Mobjörk Malin . 2018 . “ Climate Change and Violent Conflict in East Africa: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Research to Probe the Mechanisms .” International Studies Review . 20 : 547 – 75 .

Verhoeven Harry. 2011 . “ Climate Change, Conflict and Development in Sudan: Global Neo-Malthusian Narratives and Local Power Struggles: Climate Change, Conflict and Development in Sudan .” Development and Change . 42 : 679 – 707 ..

VICE . 2017 . “ Assad’s Syria & The Cost of Climate Change .” Video . Accessed August 8, 2023. https://video.vice.com/en_us/video/hbo-assad-syria-climate-change-cost/58ac53d2d081c04e5f9e37b0 .

Waha Katharina , Krummenauer Linda , Adams Sophie , Aich Valentin , Baarsch Florent , Coumou Dim , Fader Marianela , et al.  2017 . “ Climate Change Impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) Region and Their Implications for Vulnerable Population Groups .” Regional Environmental Change . 17 : 1623 – 38 .

Weinthal Erika , Zawahri Neda , Sowers Jeannie . 2015 . “ Securitizing Water, Climate, and Migration in Israel, Jordan, and Syria .” International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics . 15 : 293 – 307 .

Weiss Matthew I. 2015 . “ A Perfect Storm: The Causes and Consequences of Severe Water Scarcity, Institutional Breakdown and Conflict in Yemen .” Water International . 40 : 251 – 72 .

Werrell Caitlin E. , Femia Francesco . 2013 . The Arab Spring and Climate Change . Washington, DC : Center for American Progress .

Werrell Caitlin E. , Femia Francesco , Sternberg Troy . 2015 . “ Did We See It Coming?: State Fragility, Climate Vulnerability, and the Uprisings in Syria and Egypt .” SAIS Review of International Affairs . 35 : 29 – 46 .

World Bank . 2022 . “ Population, Total - Middle East & North Africa .” The World Bank . Accessed November 5, 2021. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=ZQ .

World Bank . 2023 . “ Employment in Agriculture, Female (% of Male Employment) (Modeled ILO Estimate) .” Accessed March 23, 2023. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.MA.ZS?view=chart .

Yiftachel Oren. 1996 . “ The Internal Frontier: Territorial Control and Ethnic Relations in Israel .” Regional Studies . 30 : 493 – 508 .

Zaman M.Q. 1991 . “ Social Structure and Process in Char Land Settlement in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna Floodplain .” Man . 26 : 673 .

Zittis George , Hadjinicolaou Panos , Almazroui Mansour , Bucchignani Edoardo , Driouech Fatima , El Rhaz Khalid , Kurnaz Levent , et al.  2021 . “ Business-as-Usual Will Lead to Super and Ultra-Extreme Heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa .” NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science . 4 : 20 .

Zittis George , Hadjinicolaou Panos , Klangidou Marina , Proestos Yiannis , Lelieveld Jos . 2019 . “ A Multi-Model, Multi-Scenario, and Multi-Domain Analysis of Regional Climate Projections for the Mediterranean .” Regional Environmental Change . 19 : 2621 – 35 .

Email alerts

Citing articles via.

• Recommend to your Library

Affiliations

• Online ISSN 1468-2486
• Print ISSN 1521-9488
• Copyright © 2024 International Studies Association
• About Oxford Academic
• Publish journals with us
• University press partners
• What we publish
• New features  
• Open access
• Institutional account management
• Rights and permissions
• Get help with access
• Accessibility
• Advertising
• Media enquiries
• Oxford University Press
• Oxford Languages
• University of Oxford

Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide

• Copyright © 2024 Oxford University Press
• Cookie settings
• Cookie policy
• Privacy policy
• Legal notice

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only

Sign In or Create an Account

This PDF is available to Subscribers Only

For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription.

Global warming, man-made factors worsened Pakistan floods: Study

World Weather Attribution analysis says global warming was not the biggest cause of the catastrophic floods.

Human-caused climate change likely contributed to the deadly floods in Pakistan recently, experts say in a new scientific analysis that looked at how much global warming was to blame.

The World Weather Attribution, a collection of mostly volunteer scientists from around the world who do real-time studies of extreme weather, released their report on Thursday.

Keep reading

Fears of more flooding as pakistan death toll crosses 1,400, ‘never seen climate carnage’ like pakistan floods, says un chief, pakistan floods: a health crisis of epic proportions, climate change: leaving pakistan out to dry.

The study said global warming was not the biggest cause of the catastrophic floods that at one point submerged one-third of the country, affecting 33 million people, killing more than 1,500 so far, and destroying more than a million homes.

“The same event would probably have been much less likely in a world without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, meaning climate change likely made the extreme rainfall more probable,” the study said.

Human-caused “climate change also plays a really important role here,” said the study’s senior author Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College of London.

“What we saw in Pakistan is exactly what climate projections have been predicting for years … It is also in line with historical records showing that heavy rainfall has dramatically increased in the region since humans started emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” she said.

Otto said while it was hard to put a precise figure on the extent to which man-made emissions drove the rainfall, “the fingerprints of global warming are evident”.

The study found that August rainfall in the worst-hit Sindh and Balochistan provinces – together nearly the size of Spain – was eight and nearly seven times normal amounts, while the country as a whole had three and a half times its normal rainfall.

The scientists not only examined records of past rains, which only go back to 1961, but they used computer simulations to compare what happened last month with what would have happened in a world without heat-trapping gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas – and that difference is what they could attribute to climate change.

Study co-author Fahad Saeed, a climate scientist at Climate Analytics and the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, said numerous factors made this monsoon season much wetter than normal, including La Nina, the natural cooling of part of the Pacific Ocean that alters weather worldwide.

But other factors had the signature of climate change , Saeed said. A nasty heatwave in the region earlier in the summer – which was made 30 times more likely because of climate change – increased the differential between land and water temperatures. That differential determines how much moisture goes from the ocean to the monsoon and means more of it drops.

“This disaster was the result of vulnerability that was constructed over many, many years,” said study team member Ayesha Siddiqi of the University of Cambridge.

Muhammad Irfan Tariq, an Islamabad-based climate expert, told Al Jazeera the World Weather Attribution report is an attempt to “understand linkages between climate change and the type of developmental paradigm being pursued”.

Tariq, who is also a member of a working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body, said natural disasters will become more frequent and extreme as the climate crisis intensifies.

“We reported this earlier as well and you just need to look at events that unfolded this year in Pakistan. We have had heatwaves, we have had droughts, we have had extreme monsoon. The cycle is changing so much and so rapidly that everything is now becoming a major disaster,” he told Al Jazeera.

The World Meteorological Organization this week said that weather-related disasters such as Pakistan’s had increased five-fold over the last 50 years, killing 115 people each day on average.

The warning came as nations are gearing up for the COP27 climate summit in Egypt in November, where at-risk countries are demanding that rich, historic polluters compensate them for the climate-drive loss and damage already battering their economies and infrastructure.

Study co-author Saeed said the floods showed the need for richer nations to radically ramp up funding to help others adapt to climate change – another key ask at COP27.

“Pakistan must also ask developed countries to take responsibility and provide adaptation plus loss and damage support to the countries and populations bearing the brunt of climate change,” he said.

• Skip to main content
• Keyboard shortcuts for audio player

A professor worried no one would read an algae study. So she had it put to music

Dead fish washed ashore in a red tide in 2018 in Sanibel, Fla. Joe Raedle/Getty Images hide caption

Dead fish washed ashore in a red tide in 2018 in Sanibel, Fla.

An anthropology professor at the University of South Florida recently published a paper she knew barely anyone would read. At least, not outside her field.

The paper, co-authored with three other professors, had to do with the impact of algae blooms and depletion of coral reefs on the region's tourism industry. The work was glum, says Heather O'Leary . It involved tracking visitors' reactions to the environment on social media.

"Part of the data for months was just reading tweets: dead fish, dead fish, dead fish," she recalls. "We were really thinking every day about the Gulf of Mexico and the waters that surround us, especially in St. Pete as a peninsula, about those risks, and the risks to our coastal economy."

The Picture Show

Changing the climate of protest with aerial art.

But attending concerts at USF's School of Music inspired and gladdened her. So she reached out to its director of bands, Matthew McCutchen .

"I'm studying climate change and what's going down at the coral reefs," he remembers her saying. "And I've got all this data and I'd like to know if there's any way that we can turn it into music."

Indeed there was. Composition professor Paul Reller worked with students to map pitch, rhythm and duration to the data. It came alive, O'Leary says, in ways it simply does not on a spreadsheet.

Matthew McCutchen, Heather O'Leary and Hunter Pomeroy at the University of South Florida Symphonic Band & Wind Ensemble show at USF Concert Hall. Aiden Michael McKahan/University of South Florida hide caption

Matthew McCutchen, Heather O'Leary and Hunter Pomeroy at the University of South Florida Symphonic Band & Wind Ensemble show at USF Concert Hall.

"My students were really excited to start thinking about how the other students, the music students, heard patterns that we did not see in some of the repetitions," she says. With music, she added, "you can start to sense with different parts of your mind and your body that there are patterns happening and that they're important."

In this case, she says, the patterns revealed the economic impact of pollution on coastal Florida communities. The complex challenge is a symptom of other, bigger problems. "The world is going to see more and more of these purportedly 'wicked problems,' the ones that take multiple people with different types of training and background to solve," O'Leary says.

Joe's Big Idea

Climate scientist tries arts to stir hearts regarding earth's fate.

The University of South Florida is excited about this composition . Other departments are getting involved, including communications, education and library science. Now, a group of faculty and students are working to bring together music and the environment in related projects, such as an augmented reality experience based on this composition. The group, which calls itself CRESCENDO (Communicating Research Expansively through Sonification and Community-Engaged Neuroaesthetic Data-literacy Opportunities) wants to spread awareness about the algae blooms, data literacy and democratizing science.

Edited for radio and the web by Rose Friedman. Produced for the web by Beth Novey. Produced for the radio by Isabella Gomez Sarmiento.

• science and music
• University of South Florida
• algae bloom