case study on scenario planning

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Anticipating Change: A Practical Guide to Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is an important tool for making decisions in uncertain situations. It helps businesses anticipate various outcomes, evaluate responses, and prepare for both positive and negative possibilities. In this blog post, we’ll explore why scenario planning is valuable, look at its different types, and share practical tips on using it effectively.

What Is Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning is a strategic method used in decision-making when facing uncertainty. Decision-makers use this approach to anticipate a range of potential outcomes, both positive and negative, and prepare for them. Essentially, it’s a way of foreseeing different possibilities and making informed choices.

By visualizing potential risks and opportunities, individuals and organizations can take proactive measures, rather than merely reacting to unexpected events, to navigate through uncertain circumstances.

Scenario planning originated in the U.S. military as a way to make better strategic decisions. The military started using it by envisioning different future situations up to 20 years ahead. This helped them plan and prepare for various possibilities. Eventually, businesses adopted this approach, finding it useful in dealing with uncertainties. Today, scenario planning is widely used across different industries as a key part of making strategic decisions.

Why is Scenario Planning Important?

From anticipating potential outcomes to evaluating responses, scenario planning provides an integrated approach to dealing with uncertainty. Here’s why scenario planning, a proactive strategy to improve decision-making by reducing reliance on reactive measures, is an important tool for organizations:

Anticipation of outcomes : Scenario planning helps decision-makers foresee potential results.

Response evaluation : It enables the evaluation of responses for both positive and negative scenarios.

Integrated approach : Beyond financial planning, it offers a comprehensive strategy for addressing uncertainty.

Visualizing futures : Businesses can visualize diverse representations of their future based on market assumptions.

Proactive decision-making : It facilitates proactive decision-making, reducing reliance on reactive responses to unforeseen events.

Types of Scenario Planning

There are several types of scenario planning that provide decision-makers with versatile tools to anticipate, strategize, and adapt to various future possibilities.

1. Exploratory scenarios

• Focuses on a wide range of potential future situations.
• Explores different possibilities without specific predictions.
• Helps in identifying unexpected challenges and opportunities.

2. Normative scenarios

• Involves creating scenarios based on preferred future outcomes.
• Guides decision-makers in working towards specific goals or objectives.
• Aims to shape a desired future rather than merely preparing for it.

3. Timeframe-based scenarios

• Considers scenarios within specific timeframes (short, medium, long term).
• Enables organizations to tailor strategies to address immediate and future challenges.

4. Best and worst-case scenarios

• Examines extreme outcomes, both positive and negative.
• Prepares organizations for the most favorable and challenging circumstances.
• Increases resilience by developing strategies for various extremes.

5. Quantitative scenarios

• Involves numerical data and modeling for scenario development.
• Utilizes statistical methods to assess probabilities and potential impacts.
• Particularly useful for financial planning and risk assessment.

6. Qualitative scenarios

• Focuses on narrative descriptions and qualitative factors.
• Emphasizes understanding the context and nuances of potential future situations.
• Well-suited for industries where human behavior and qualitative factors play a significant role.

How to Use Scenario Planning

The scenario planning process provides a structured approach to anticipate various potential outcomes and strategically plan for them. Here are the steps of the scenario planning process.

Step 1: Define the purpose and scope

Clearly articulate the objective of the scenario planning process and the specific decision or area it will address.

Step 2: Identify key factors

Determine the key variables and factors that significantly impact the situation or decision at hand.

Here you can use mind maps or fishbone diagrams to visually represent the interconnected key factors.

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Step 3: Gather information

Collect relevant data and insights related to the identified key factors. Use internal and external sources to ensure a comprehensive understanding.

Here you can use flowcharts or data flow diagrams to map the sources, flow, and interactions of information, creating a visual guide for gathering relevant data.

Step 4. Brainstorm scenarios

Engage a diverse group of stakeholders in generating a range of possible scenarios. Encourage creativity and exploration of both optimistic and pessimistic outcomes.

Use mind maps or a brainstorming board to capture and organize ideas generated during brainstorming sessions, fostering creativity and categorization.

Step 5: Define scenarios

Develop detailed narratives for each scenario, outlining the sequence of events and their potential impacts. Make sure each scenario is internally consistent and logically plausible.

Step 6: Assess likelihood and impact

Evaluate the likelihood of each scenario occurring and assess its potential impact on the organization. Consider a quantitative or qualitative approach, depending on the nature of the scenarios.

Use a probability-impact scenario planning matrix that can help visualize the likelihood and impact of different scenarios.

Step 7: Prioritize scenarios

Rank the scenarios based on their relevance, likelihood, and potential impact. Focus on a manageable number of scenarios to facilitate strategic planning. Here you can use a prioritization grid to systematically evaluate and rank scenarios based on predefined criteria.

Step 8: Develop strategies

Create strategies and action plans for each prioritized scenario. Tailor responses to leverage opportunities and address challenges presented by each scenario and determine the resources, timelines, and responsibilities required to implement the identified strategies. Create an action plan to outline specific actions, resources, and timelines for each prioritized scenario.

Step 9: Monitoring and review

Continuously monitor external and internal factors that may affect the scenarios. Regularly review and update the scenarios and strategies as new information becomes available.

Step 10: Communication and collaboration

Communicate the scenarios and corresponding strategies effectively throughout the organization. Encourage collaboration and input from relevant stakeholders.

After implementation, analyze the outcomes and learn from the scenario planning process. Use insights gained to refine future scenario planning efforts and improve organizational resilience.

Essential Questions to Ask for Effective Scenario Planning

The following questions are designed to spark thoughtful discussions and help organizations explore a range of possibilities, ensuring a comprehensive and strategic approach to scenario planning.

Scenario Planning Best Practices

Follow these best practices to maximize the effectiveness of scenario planning and modeling, leading to more informed decision-making in the face of uncertainty.

• Involve key stakeholders : Engage a diverse group of key stakeholders, including representatives from different departments and external perspectives. This diversity ensures a holistic exploration of scenarios.
• Identify key drivers and uncertainties : Systematically identify the key drivers and uncertainties that could affect the organization. Focus on factors both within and outside the organization’s control.
• Develop plausible scenarios : Create possible scenarios that cover a wide range of possibilities. Include both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios to explore potential opportunities and risks.
• Use multiple models : Use a variety of modeling techniques, including quantitative and qualitative approaches. Combine financial models, trend analysis, and other relevant methodologies to capture different aspects of the scenarios.
• Ensure data quality : Check and make sure the quality of data used in the modeling process. Accurate and reliable data is crucial for generating meaningful insights.
• Integrate historical data : Incorporate historical data into your models to provide context and help validate assumptions. Analyzing past trends can improve the accuracy of future projections.
• Iterative approach : Adopt an iterative approach to scenario planning and modeling. Regularly revisit and update scenarios based on new information, changing conditions, or organizational learning.

When to Use Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a versatile tool that can be applied whenever there is a need to proactively explore and prepare for different future possibilities in a structured and strategic manner. Here are some situations where using scenario planning is particularly beneficial;

Strategic planning

Scenario planning helps anticipate and prepare for a range of possible futures during strategic planning. It improves the strategic decision-making process by considering different external and internal factors.

Market entry or expansion

Scenario planning helps assess the potential challenges and opportunities in different market scenarios, for example, before entering new markets or expanding existing operations, especially in unfamiliar or volatile environments.

Long-term planning

For long-term planning, especially when the business environment is characterized by significant uncertainties. It allows organizations to explore alternative futures and build strategies that are adaptable over time.

Innovation and research

When developing new products or services, engaging in research and development, or exploring innovative initiatives. Scenario planning can highlight potential disruptions and guide innovation efforts.

Major policy changes

When anticipating or responding to major policy changes, regulatory shifts, or geopolitical events that could affect the industry or the organization. Scenario planning helps with understanding the implications of such changes.

Technological disruptions

In the face of rapid technological advancements or disruptive innovations within the industry. Scenario planning helps organizations prepare for the consequences of emerging technologies on their operations and market dynamics.

Exploring business model changes

Before implementing significant changes to the business model. Scenario planning helps assess the viability of different business model alternatives and their implications.

How to Use Creately to Streamline Scenario Planning

A visual collaboration tool like Creately can improve the effectiveness of your scenario planning projects by providing a digital platform to collaborate, brainstorm, and visualize complex information.

Virtual scenario boards & real-time collaboration

Create workspaces dedicated to scenario planning. Share them with stakeholders to collaboratively work on scenarios, eliminating geographical constraints and facilitating real-time updates.

Conduct collaborative workshops or brainstorming directly on the platform, integrating Creately’s plugin for Microsoft Teams.

Leverage commenting for ongoing communication. Team members can provide feedback, ask questions, and engage in discussions related to specific elements on the visual collaboration platform easily with contextual comments.

Assign tasks directly on the platform and track their progress. Make sure that responsibilities related to scenario planning, such as data collection or strategy development, are clearly defined and monitored.

Easily export and share the scenario planning board with stakeholders. This could be in the form of presentations, PDFs, or other formats, improving communication and dissemination of scenario insights.

Simple visual tools

Creately’s drag-and-drop functionality makes it easy to move, rearrange, and organize elements on the canvas. This makes it simple to modify scenarios, reorganize key factors, or adjust visual elements.

You can also use virtual sticky notes, mind maps, flowcharts, etc. to visually identify and organize key drivers and uncertainties and categorize and prioritize the factors that will shape the scenarios. And get a headstart with 1000s of templates related to scenario planning.

Use prioritization grids, emojis or dot voting to facilitate prioritization. Team members can vote on specific scenarios or elements, helping to identify the most critical aspects that require further analysis or attention.

Import and embed external content

• Import and embed external content such as market reports, graphs, or images directly onto the canvas. Use integrated notes and data fields for shapes to store additional details pertaining to them. This ensures that the scenario planning board is a comprehensive repository of relevant information.

In conclusion, scenario planning is a helpful tool for organizations to handle uncertainty and make smart decisions. By thinking about different possible futures, considering different factors, and creating flexible strategies, scenario planning helps organizations be ready for change. It’s not just for crises; it’s a way to plan for the long term, manage risks, and make smart decisions. Using scenario planning encourages a forward-thinking mindset, helping businesses prepare for challenges and take advantage of opportunities in a constantly changing world.

Join over thousands of organizations that use Creately to brainstorm, plan, analyze, and execute their projects successfully.

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Amanda Athuraliya is the communication specialist/content writer at Creately, online diagramming and collaboration tool. She is an avid reader, a budding writer and a passionate researcher who loves to write about all kinds of topics.

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Scenario Planning: Strategy, Steps and Practical Examples

Scenario planning is a must-use tool for functional leaders to drive immediate actions, decisions and longer-term plans. - gartner.

What Is Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning attempts to eliminate the two most common errors made in any strategic analysis - Overprediction and Underprediction of the company's future. Most of the organizations make this error while analyzing their strategies. Even if the rate of change in our life is accelerated to a great extent, the future might not hold what we expect.

Scenario planning will help us draw a line between over and under-predictions. Scenario planning will do this by segregating our knowledge into two areas.

Things we know about

Things we are uncertain about

Scenario plans, ultimately, tell a story with many possible endings. Crafting the narrative requires a clear set of assumptions about potential business realities and ensuing outcomes.

Why is Scenario Planning Important?

Scenario planning is a valuable tool for navigating an uncertain future. It helps organizations and individuals prepare for a range of possibilities, making them more adaptable and resilient. Here's a closer look at why it's needed, its advantages, and its disadvantages:

Future is fuzzy: We can't predict what's coming, so we need to be ready for anything. Scenario planning helps us think about different possibilities.

Better decisions: By imagining different futures, we can make smarter choices now, even if things change later.

More creative solutions: Thinking about weird scenarios sparks new ideas and helps us find ways to overcome challenges.

Less risk: We can identify problems before they happen and plan how to avoid them, like fixing the roof before it rains.

Advantages of Scenario Planning:

Adaptable: We can change plans quickly if things don't go as expected.

Stronger: We can bounce back from unexpected problems.

Teamwork: Everyone works together to solve problems, building a stronger team.

Thinking ahead: We make decisions that are good for the future, not just the present.

Disadvantages of Scenario Planning:

Takes time and effort: It's like planning a big party, you need to think about lots of things.

Too much thinking: Sometimes we get stuck thinking about all the possibilities and forget to take action.

Guessing the future: We might be wrong about what happens, but it's still good to have a plan even if it's not perfect.

Change is hard: Some people don't like to change their plans, even if it's for the better.

Scenario Planning Process

There are multiple steps involved in the incorporation of a scenario planning model . Let us understand them from the step-by-step guide discussed below.

Types of scenarios:

Now that we have a brief understanding of the scenario planning strategy , let us now discuss its different types to delve deeper into this concept and its intricacies.

Operational Scenarios: These focus on the immediate impact of a specific event, like a natural disaster or a product launch.

Normative Scenarios: These focus on long-term goals and how the company wants to operate in the future.

Quantitative Scenarios: These look at best-case and worst-case scenarios using data and models.

Strategic Management Scenarios: These focus on how the company's products and services are used in different future environments.

Step 1 - Predicting future drivers:

Identify a timeframe: It's helpful to specify a timeframe for your drivers, as different drivers will be relevant for short-term vs. long-term scenarios.

Consider diverse drivers: Go beyond traditional economic factors and explore social, technological, environmental, and political drivers.

Use available resources: Use research reports, expert opinions, and industry trends to inform your driver predictions.

Step 2 - Understanding the impact of drivers on your business:

Quantitative and qualitative analysis: Utilize both quantitative data (e.g., sales figures) and qualitative insights (e.g., customer feedback) to assess the impact.

Identify vulnerabilities and opportunities: Analyze how drivers might expose your business's weaknesses and how you can leverage them for new opportunities.

Consider cascading effects: Understand how the impact of one driver might trigger a chain reaction affecting other aspects of your business.

Step 3 - Gauging the effect of future scenarios:

Develop several plausible scenarios: Don't limit yourself to best-case and worst-case scenarios. Explore a range of possibilities with varying degrees of success and challenge.

Quantify potential outcomes: Assign probabilities to each scenario and estimate their financial, operational, and reputational impact.

Conduct stress tests: Simulate how your business would react under different scenarios to identify critical vulnerabilities and response strategies.

Step 4 - Testing unfavorable outcomes even in positive scenarios:

Embrace the "black swan" principle: Prepare for unexpected events, even with positive outlooks.

Develop contingency plans: Have strategies in place to mitigate potential disruptions and adapt to unforeseen circumstances.

Foster a culture of resilience: Encourage flexibility, adaptability, and learning within your organization to navigate changing scenarios effectively.

Scenario Planning and Modeling: Best Practices

Scenario planning and modeling is a valuable tool for navigating an uncertain future. By considering a range of possible scenarios, businesses and organizations can develop more adaptable and resilient strategies. Here are some best practices for getting the most out of this process:

Focus on the right uncertainties: Identifying the key uncertainties that will have the most significant impact on your organization is crucial. Don't get bogged down in every possible event; prioritize based on potential impact and likelihood.

Keep it simple: Start with a few core scenarios that represent the most plausible extremes and potential tipping points. Avoid creating an overwhelming web of possibilities.

Embrace diversity: Involve people from different backgrounds and perspectives in your scenario planning process. This broadens your understanding of potential uncertainties and leads to more creative and innovative solutions.

Build quantitative models: Complement qualitative scenario descriptions with quantitative modeling to assess the financial, operational, and reputational implications of each scenario. This provides a clearer picture of potential risks and opportunities.

Think outside the box: Don't just focus on linear progressions of current trends. Challenge conventional assumptions and consider "wild card" scenarios that could disrupt the status quo.

Focus on actionable insights: The goal of scenario planning is not just to understand the future; it's to be prepared for it. Translate your scenarios into concrete plans and strategies that can be implemented under different circumstances.

Test and refine: Regularly revisit and update your scenarios as new information and uncertainties emerge. The future is constantly changing, so your planning process should be too.

Build a culture of resilience: Foster a culture within your organization that embraces continuous learning and adaptation. Encourage employees to think creatively and be comfortable with change.

Communicate effectively: Share your scenarios and the insights derived from them with key stakeholders across the organization. This creates a shared understanding of potential challenges and opportunities, and improves alignment of strategic priorities.

Leverage technology: Utilize scenario planning software and simulation tools to streamline the process, visualize complex scenarios, and analyze potential outcomes.

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Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking

How can companies combat the overconfidence and tunnel vision common to so much decision making by first identifying basic trends and uncertainties and then using them to construct a variety of future scenarios..

• Developing Strategy

Early in this century, it was unclear how airplanes would affect naval warfare. When Brigadier General Billy Mitchell proposed that airplanes might sink battleships by dropping bombs on them, U.S. Secretary of War Newton Baker remarked, “That idea is so damned nonsensical and impossible that I’m willing to stand on the bridge of a battleship while that nitwit tries to hit it from the air.” Josephus Daniels, Secretary of the Navy, was also incredulous: “Good God! This man should be writing dime novels.” Even the prestigious Scientific American proclaimed in 1910 that “to affirm that the aeroplane is going to ‘revolutionize’ naval warfare of the future is to be guilty of the wildest exaggeration.” 1

In hindsight, it is difficult to appreciate why air power’s potential was unclear to so many. But can we predict the future any better than these defense leaders did? We are affected by the same biases they were. It was probably as hard for them to evaluate the effect of airplanes in the 1920s as it is for us to assess the impact over the next decades of multimedia, the human genome project, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, organ transplants, superconductivity, space colonization, and myriad other developments. The myopic statements in the sidebar remind us how frequently smart people have made the wrong assumptions about the future with great certainty.

Managers who can expand their imaginations to see a wider range of possible futures will be much better positioned to take advantage of the unexpected opportunities that will come along. And managers today have something those defense leaders did not have — scenario planning. Unfortunately, too few companies use it. If only General Motors in the seventies had explored more fully the consequences of OPEC, the yuppie generation, globalization, environmentalism, and the importance of quality and speed in manufacturing; or IBM and Digital Equipment Corporation in the eighties, the full impact of the personal computer, which prompted the breakdown of the vertically integrated mainframe business and a shift toward distributed computing. Other examples abound: Federal Express’s fiascos in Europe, Philips’s setback in electronic markets (despite its leading-edge technologies), Disney’s union and image problems with its theme park in France, Sony in movies, etc.

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Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imagining possible futures that companies have applied to a great range of issues.

About the Author

Paul J.H. Schoemaker is the chairman of Decision Strategies International, Inc., and a professor in the department of operations and information management, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

1. C. Cerf and V. Navasky, The Experts Speak (New York: Pantheon Books, 1984).

2. P.J.H. Schoemaker and C.A.J.M. van de Heijden, “Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell,” Planning Review 20 (1992): 41–46.

3. C. Sunter, The World and South Africa in the 1990’s (Cape Town, South Africa: Human and Rousseau Tafelberg, 1987).

4. A. de Jong and G. Zalm, Scanning the Future (The Hague, The Netherlands: Central Planning Bureau, Sdu Publishers, 1992).

5. For an incisive analysis of how the human mind generates explanations and predictions, see: D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, “The Simulation Heuristic,” in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982), pp. 201–210. For additional psychological analyses, see: H. Jungerman, “Inferential Processes in the Construction of Scenarios,” Journal of Forecasting 4 (1985): 321–327; and R.M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1988). For a forecasting perspective, see: W.R. Huss, “A Move toward Scenarios,” International Journal of Forecasting 4 (1988): 377–388. For a conceptual and behavioral perspective, see: P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Basis,” Strategic Management Journal 14 (1993): 193–213. For a consultant’s approach to scenario planning, see: T.F. Mandel, “Scenarios and Corporate Strategy: Planning in Uncertain Times” (Menlo Park, California: SRI International, Research Report 669, 1982). For the Royal Dutch/Shell approach, see: P. Wack, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead,” Harvard Business Review, September–October 1985, pp. 72–89; and P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York: Doubleday, 1991). For scenario planning from an applied perspective, see: Planning Review, 20 (1992): 2 and 3. For the Dutch Central Planning Bureau’s wide-ranging global scenarios, see: De Jong and Zalm (1992).

6. For connecting scenario planning to project evaluation, using Monte Carlo simulation, see: P.J.H. Schoemaker, “When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration,” Journal of Forecasting 10 (1991): 549–564. For a methodology to link scenarios to competitor analysis, core capabilities, and strategic vision building, see: P.J.H. Schoemaker, “How to Link Strategic Vision to Core Capabilities,” Sloan Management Review, Fall 1992, pp. 67–81.

7. See Kahneman and Tversky (1982); and A. Toffler, The Adaptive Corporation (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1985). There are several theoretical arguments supporting the hypothesis of underprediction of change from the status quo. First, anchoring on the past or present will likely result in underadjustment away from the present. Second, the availability bias will make it hard to properly weigh new scenarios. Third, overconfidence (with its multiple causes) results in unduly narrow confidence ranges regarding future change. See: J.E. Russo and P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Managing Overconfidence,” Sloan Management Review, Winter 1992, pp. 7–18.

8. S.P. Schnaars, Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change (New York: Free Press, 1989).

9. De Jong and Zalm (1992).

10. Looking at the past is a two-edged sword. It may unduly anchor us to old trends and realities, or things may seem more predictable in hindsight than they were at the time. However, examining the variability and unpredictability of the past may also help us construct broader scenarios. For example, most companies do not plan for the kind of turmoil that they have witnessed over the past decade. The forces that caused past turmoil (from political to technological) should be studied in order to appreciate better the system’s complexity and unpredictability. See: J. Gilovich, “Seeing the Past in the Present: The Effect of Associations to Familiar Events on Judgments and Decisions,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 40 (1981): 797–808; and B. Fischhoff, “Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1 (1975): 288–299.

11. M. Godet, Scenarios and Strategic Management (London: Butterworths Scientific, Ltd., 1987).

12. Schoemaker and van der Heijden (1992).

13. For examples of decision scenarios, see: P. Hawken, J. Ogilvy, and P. Schwartz, Seven Tomorrows (New York: Bantam Book, 1982).

14. R.C. Blattberg and J. Deighton, “Interactive Marketing: Exploiting the Age of Addressability,” Sloan Management Review, Fall 1991, pp. 5–14.

15. C.W. Kirkwood and S.M. Pollack, “Multiple Attribute Scenarios, Bounded Probabilities, and Threats of Nuclear Theft,” Futures, February 1982, pp. 545–553.

16. Schoemaker (1991).

17. Sunter (1987).

18. For examples of this approach, see: Schwartz (1991).

19. For statistical elaboration and some consistency tests, see: Schoemaker (1991).

20. Schoemaker (1993).

21. Russo and Schoemaker (1992).

22. Schoemaker (1993).

23. Research has shown that generating reasons often improves probability calibration, even if the subjects generate their own reasons. See: A. Koriat, S. Lichtenstein, and B. Fischhoff, “Reasons for Confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 6 (1980): 107–118. However, Schoemaker shows that if subjects are asked to generate reasons for extreme outcomes, their confidence ranges may actually shrink (instead of stretch) because of incredulity about the reasons generated. See: Schoemaker (1993).

24. A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, “Extensional vs. Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgments,” Psychological Review 90 (1983): 293–315.

25. Schoemaker (1993).

26. Kahneman and Tversky (1982), p. 207.

27. Russo and Schoemaker (1992).

28. A. de Geus, “Planning As Learning,” Harvard Business Review, March–April 1988, pp. 70–74; and P. Senge, The Fifth Discipline (New York: Doubleday, 1990).

29. J.E. Russo and P.J.H. Schoemaker, Decision Traps (New York: Doubleday, 1989).

30. Wack (1985).

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Scenario Planning (Online): Learn How to Model, Predict and Prepare for the Future

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Think outside the box about what the future might hold. In six weeks online, Columbia faculty shows participants through lectures and case studies how to build future business scenarios so their organization can respond with speed, agility, and confidence to any disruption. Learn to identify driving forces—such as demographic shifts, regulatory challenges, technological advances, and environmental disruptions—and play them against their organization's core competencies and marketplace advantages. Create plausible developments in their potential business future and discover how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) can be of value in creating a best possible outcome.

With this scenario planning online program, learn to:

• Develop the mindset and steps for scenario planning to augment, not replace, strategic planning
• Master the building blocks of scenario planning to identify future risks and opportunities
• Evaluate how behavioral bias affects scenario planning and develop a plan to mitigate its impact
• Explore potential applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) for more effective scenario planning and modeling

Program Structure

This scenario planning program focuses on the application of scenario planning in the real world by diving deep into the case studies of top global brands and the development of a specific strategy to prepare their organization for unknown disruptions.

Becoming a Strategic Influencer

• Learn why forecasts and plans are often wrong
• Identify the trappings of a budget plan
• Discover how scenario planning differs from strategic planning
• Master the basic building blocks of scenario planning

Participant Profile

C-Suite Executives and Business Leaders or Founders

Business leaders and founders will learn to develop farsighted business strategies to deal with multiple potential scenarios and use scenario planning to augment their organization’s strategy and guide teams to develop scenarios.

Mid-Career and Senior Managers in Finance

Leaders in the finance realm will gain an understanding of how to deploy effective scenarios as a basis for business decisions and evaluate financial risks more successfully.

Financial Advisors and Consultants

Experienced advisors will master the fundamentals of scenario planning to offer better solutions for their clients and assess the likelihood of various outcomes and develop strategies for alternate scenarios.

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What is the educational approach of your online programs? You can expect a robust, multi-layered learning experience that emphasizes the development of the higher order thinking skills which were proposed by educational psychologist Dr. Benjamin Bloom in “Bloom’s Taxonomy of Learning.” According to Bloom, the development of higher order thinking skills requires guiding the learner from just knowledge recall to comprehension, application, analysis, synthesis and evaluation. Bloom’s Taxonomy was later revised and expressed in more action-orientated terms as 1) remembering, 2) understanding, 3) applying, 4) analyzing, 5) evaluating and 6) creating. In online learning at Columbia Business School Executive Education, you will have an opportunity to progress through these key phases of learning so that by the end each program, your return on learning will be clearly measurable.

What is the difference between live online and online programs? Compare our two formats for distance learning here .

How long do your online programs run for? Our online programs range between 3 to 18 weeks in length.

Are your online programs synchronous or asynchronous? Our online programs are mostly asynchronous, meaning that there is generally no live contact with faculty. Unless otherwise specified in the program description, all lectures are delivered through recorded media. Interactions between learners, facilitators, and faculty are conducted via discussion boards, email, and announcements, and all program material is posted on a course site. Each online program is divided into time-sequenced modules with new modules released each week. This is to allow you to move through the course with a cohort of fellow learners to ask questions and share your learnings and experiences. We encourage you to take advantage of the opportunities you will have to connect with fellow learners in each particular online program.

Are assignments graded and if so, how? An assignment is marked as either complete or incomplete based on whether or not it meets the assignment requirements. If an assignment is submitted without meeting the essential requirements, it will be marked as incomplete, however, you will be able to resubmit the assignment for further review.

Will there be any pre-program work? No. There is no pre-program work in our online programs.

Learning Experience

Who will be my main point of contact? Each online program is managed by a dedicated Online Facilitator who will be available to answer any questions, provide feedback, and send reminders as needed. Your Online Facilitator will contact you shortly before the program begins.

How will I access the program materials? Each program has a dedicated course site to which you will have a login and password. The course site will contain all program materials — syllabus, video content, readings, and assignments.

Will I be able to interact with the faculty? This varies from program to program. Questions raised in discussion boards and assignments will be curated by your Online Facilitator/Learning Coach. At a minimum, the faculty will post weekly or bi-weekly announcements addressing those themes. Some programs may feature periodic live online sessions to provide an opportunity to engage with the faculty live.

What is the role of the Online Facilitator/Learning Coach? In online learning at Columbia Business School Executive Education, we emphasize facilitated cohort learning and development. Our online programs are guided by a dedicated Online Facilitator/Learning Coach who provides feedback on your learning to help you re-examine your assumptions in order to expand your understanding of the program’s concepts and achieve your learning objectives.

How will I interact with my cohort of online learners? Connecting with other learners in an asynchronous online learning environment takes place through weekly discussion boards as well as peer or small group sessions.

What is the online student code of conduct? Whether attending an online or in-person program, every participant at Columbia Business School Executive Education is expected to adhere to the student code of conduct which requires the following:

• Respect the privacy of other students. Do not share or disclose personal or proprietary company information on public forums.
• Respect the diversity of opinions and cultures that will be present in your program. The use of language that is harassing or denigrating will not be tolerated.
• Your program login credentials are for your personal use only. Do not allow anyone else to access the course site using your login.
• Do not reproduce content from any online program unless allowed by the copyright terms laid out by the course administrator.
• Do not submit the work of others as your own work.
• Violation of this code of conduct may result in disciplinary action including cancellation of program enrollment with no reimbursement of fees.

Learning Environment

When will I receive access to the course site? You will receive access to the course site generally within one to five business days of the course start date.

Can I access the course site on a mobile device? Yes, the course sites are accessible on mobile devices via the course website log-in page at  https://courseworks2.columbia.edu/  or via the Canvas app: » Download Canvas app for Android » Download Canvas app for iOS To find Columbia Business School Executive Education on the Canvas app, you may need to type our URL in the "Find your school or district" box. The URL is courseworks2.columbia.edu. Please note that there will be differences in how the course site is displayed in the app versus on desktop. We recommend that you experiment with accessing the course site on a mobile device and laptop or computer to see which works best for you.

How long will I have access to the course site after the program concludes? You will have access to the course site for an additional three months after the program concludes.

Certification for Online Programs

Do your online programs provide any university credits? No. All of our Executive Education programs, both online and in person, are non-degree courses and as such, do not provide accreditation or lead to an accredited diploma or a degree. Upon successful completion of the program, participants receive a certificate of participation.

Do online programs count towards earning the Certificate in Business Excellence (CIBE)? Online programs provide credits towards the  Certificate in Business Excellence (CIBE) *. Please visit the program page for the exact number of credits each online program earns toward this certificate.

*Except Professional Certificate in Corporate Finance (with edX), Alumni Edge programs, and TIME for Learning classes, which do not earn credits toward the Certificate in Business Excellence.

Who typically attends your online programs? The executive cohort for each online program consists of a global audience at various stages of their careers, from mid- to senior-level leaders and managers with an average of 10-15 years of management experience. Participants come from a range of functional areas including general management, IT, finance/accounting, sales, operations, marketing, human resources, customer service, engineering, and strategy. The top 10 industries represented include financial services, energy/natural resources, retail, technology, education, consulting, manufacturing, consumer products, and non-profit industries.

How large are the online program cohorts? We limit the enrollment levels of our online programs to ensure every participant receives consistent feedback from the Online Facilitators. This makes it possible for us to provide you with a level of attention and feedback not typical in other online programs.

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Case Study: Scenario Planning for Sustainable Development in Peru's Amazon Forest

Madre de Dios, located in the foothills of Peru’s tropical Andes, is one of the most biodiverse places in the world. The region has renowned protected areas and initial land-use plans, which makes sustainable development a challenge. In 2014, a hydrocarbon company began gas exploration activities in Madre de Dios as part of the government’s economic development needs. The work overlapped a protected area, called the Amarakaeri Communal Reserve, and included several Indigenous territories. 

There were concerns that energy exploration would open the area to illegal mining and deforestation. Local communities feared it would impact their forest and livelihoods. This case study explores how researchers from the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute’s Center for Conservation and Sustainability used scenario planning to help the company and regional government minimize social and environmental impacts in Madre de Dios and create a strategy for sustainable development.

Madre de Dios is located within the Vilcabamba-Amboró conservation corridor, which connects about 74 million acres (30 million hectares) of wildlife habitat between Peru and Bolivia. The corridor is the most biologically diverse ecosystem in the world. Dividing Madre de Dios and the conservation corridor is the Interoceanic Highway, which connects ports on the Atlantic coast of Brazil to those on the Pacific coast of Peru.

The road, completed in 2010, sped the transition of the regional economy from forest-based extractive industries (logging, Brazil nut harvesting, ecotourism, etc.) to agriculture, cattle production and gold mining. These changes promoted population growth. Today, Madre de Dios is home to about 150,000 people, including 14 native cultures, migrants from neighboring Andean regions, and immigrants from Brazil, Bolivia, and other countries.  

Agriculture and gold mining are the main causes of deforestation in the area. The Amazon Forest covers more than 90% of Madre de Dios territory, of which about half is protected. The rest is divided into concessions for logging, hydrocarbon, mining, ecotourism and more.

Evaluation and Analysis  

The Center for Conservation and Sustainability suggested a scenario planning approach to minimize the possible impact of the gas development field in Madre de Dios. Scenario planning is a structured way to think about the future of a region and facilitate decision making by exploring a handful of plausible futures, called scenarios. For this purpose, the CCS team needed to compare the economic, social and environmental success of different development scenarios. With more than 30 years of experience in Peru, CCS scientists were able to work with local stakeholders and the government to define a path forward. 

When the exploratory drilling well produced no gas, the work ended. However, CCS continued to complete the scenario planning project for Madre de Dios to benefit sustainable development across the entire region (32,935 square miles or 85,301 square kilometers).  

Creating sustainable landscapes requires managing roads and cities (gray infrastructure) that provide economic services with rivers and forests (green Infrastructure) that support biodiversity. Recognizing this, CCS developed the Working Landscape Simulator. The simulator combined state-of-the-art modeling with community engagement. It included seven steps:

• Assess the critical goods and services that people get from ecosystems (called ecosystem services) in Madre de Dios  
• Develop qualitative scenarios about the future of the region with community participation   
• Collect and generate quantitative data (demographic, economic, etc.) 
• Model landscape changes, like deforestation and urbanization, for each scenario 
• Evaluate economic, environmental and social indicators of success 
• Develop lessons learned from the study 
• Share the results 

Models of land-use changes, such as trends in deforestation and urbanization, made the best use of the existing data. Engagement with local stakeholders ensured they were interested in the results and more likely to use them for decision making.

Milestone Solutions  

This study demonstrates that industrial operations, such as gas exploration, can contribute to sustainable development beyond traditional approaches and legal obligations. In scenario planning, CCS was able to provide: 

• Collective recommendations  that highlight the need for a land-use plan and provide a roadmap for planning regional land changes and sustainable development 
• Maps of critical conservation corridors  and other areas that are key to keeping habitats connected within Madre de Dios. 
• Essential and previously unavailable data  – such as historical land cover maps; ecosystem services; and economic, social, and environmental indicators – needed to guide sustainable development and land-use planning.

Recommendations 

The Center for Conservation and Sustainability’s study was key to understanding the conservation landscape of Madre de Dios and integrating that knowledge with the region's development needs. Best practices from this approach include: 

• Consider scenario planning for large-scale projects to build a shared conservation and development vision 
• Engage stakeholders early in the process 
• Use high-quality models that track socioeconomic and ecosystem changes 
• Develop various indicators of success in the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic prosperity, human wellbeing and environmental integrity) 
• Share information by making methods and results publicly available to all 

To learn more about the Madre de Dios scenario planning study download the  “Future of Madre de Dios: Smithsonian’s Working Landscape Simulator for Sustainable Development” book.

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Management Tools

Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning

Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning is a process that allows executives to explore and prepare for several alternative futures.

• January 31, 2023

What Is Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning?

Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning is a process that allows executives to explore and prepare for several alternative futures. It examines the outcomes a company might expect under a variety of operating strategies and economic conditions. Contingency planning assesses what effect sudden market changes or business disruptions might have on a company and devises strategies to deal with them. Scenario analysis and contingency plans avoid the dangers of simplistic, one-dimensional, or linear thinking.

Usage and satisfaction among survey respondents

By raising and testing various “what if” scenarios, managers can brainstorm together and challenge their assumptions in a nonthreatening, hypothetical environment before they decide on a certain course of action. Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning allows management to pressure-test plans and forecasts and equips the company to handle the unexpected.

How Is Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning Implemented?

Key steps in a Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning process are:

• Delineating critical market and competitive uncertainties potentially impacting the business
• Defining extreme, but plausible, scenarios
• Testing the impact of each scenario on future business performance
• Identifying no-regret moves that are valuable under most or all scenarios
• Determining big bets, tied to the scenario in which leadership has the most conviction, surfacing strategic hedges and options
• Designating trigger points and signposts to highlight changes
• Establishing regular forums to monitor signposts and decide corrective actions
• Developing contingency plans tied to significant changes in signposts
• Being prepared to change course if necessary

Related Topics

Crisis Management

Disaster Recovery

Dynamic Strategic Planning and Budgeting

Simulation Models

What Are the Common Uses of Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning?

By using Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning, a company can:

• Challenge widely held beliefs and assumptions about the business and its strategic direction
• Surface critical factors that can influence the company’s future course
• Make long-range planning more dynamic and consequential
• Develop a clearer view of the future
• Achieve a higher degree of organizational learning

Bazerman, Max H., and Michael D. Watkins. Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them . Harvard Business School Press, 2008.

Bood, Robert, and Theo Postma. “Strategic Learning with Scenarios.” European Management Journal , December 1997, pp. 633–647.

Chermack, Thomas J. Using Scenarios: Scenario Planning for Improving Organizations . Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc., 2022.

Elkins, Debra, Robert B. Handfield, Jennifer Blackhurst, and Christopher W. Craighead. “18 Ways to Guard Against Disruption.” Supply Chain Management Review , January 1, 2005, pp. 46–53.

Fuld, Leonard. “Be Prepared.” Harvard Business Review , November 2003, pp. 20–21.

Joglekar, Nitin, and Phadnis Shardul. “Accelerating Supply Chain Scenario Planning.” MIT Sloan Management Review , November 2020.

Mankins, Michael, and Mark Gottfredson. “Strategy-Making in Turbulent Times,” Harvard Business Review , September 2022.

McGrath, Rita Gunther.  Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Inflection Points in Business Before They Happen. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2019.

Nolan, Timothy N., Leonard D. Goodstein, and Jeanette Goodstein. Applied Strategic Planning: An Introduction . 2d ed. Pfeiffer, 2008.

Ramírez, Rafael and Wilkinson Angela. Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach . Oxford University Press, 2018.

Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking.” MIT Sloan Management Review , Winter 1995, pp. 25–40.

Van der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. 2d ed. Wiley, 2005.

Van der Heijden, Kees, Ron Bradfield, George Burt, George Cairns, and George Wright. The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. Wiley, 2002.

Wack, Pierre. “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.” Harvard Business Review , November/December 1985, pp. 139–150.

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• APA Publications

How to Design Your Scenario Planning Process

Pas memo — july/august 2019.

Download PDF version (pdf)

By Janae Futrell, AICP

Scenario planning has a long track record of helping the private market, the military, and planning agencies better prepare for a more desired future. More and more, urban and rural planning practitioners are interested in applying scenario planning to support decision making within their organizations' planning efforts.

The benefits of scenario planning include helping planners navigate uncertainty or pinpoint a preferred combination of variables to reach a specific target. Scenario planning activities often support subject-specific planning efforts, including visioning, long-range transportation plans, climate change action plans, and many others.

There are several ways to link scenario planning with urban and rural planning (Figure 1). These include but are not limited to the following (Goodspeed forthcoming):

• Scenario planning as a defining concept for plan organization
• Scenario planning to generate ideas or insights for more detailed planning work
• Scenario planning as a component within a larger planning process

Figure 1. Ways to link scenario planning with urban and rural planning. Courtesy Consortium for Scenario Planning/Janae Futrell.

When planning practitioners embark on scenario planning for the first time, there are a number of key decisions to be made long before the actual scenario planning work begins in earnest. In addition to pinpointing the best way to link scenario planning with their planning work, they also need to define which specific scenario planning activities will take place, when they will take place, and who will take part in them.

This PAS Memo provides a "how-to" guide on preparing to implement scenario planning, moving through sequential steps to create a "roadmap" for the process. A workbook for designing a scenario planning process helps planners test-drive this guidance. The proposed sequential steps are suggestions and do not illustrate the only way or the best way to design a scenario planning process for all situations. They are intended as a general guide only, as each individual scenario planning process may require steps to be removed or added to address unique needs.

This article will be particularly useful to help first-time scenario planners understand all the general steps involved in a scenario planning process, gain support for the process within their organizations, and design the process. It will also be helpful for seasoned scenario planners in need of more structure to inform a more rigorous design process.

This PAS Memo lists a number of "key resources" within an overall summary of scenario planning process design. The Consortium for Scenario Planning (see sidebar) will host forthcoming and in-process resources as they become available at www.scenarioplanning.io/resources .

The Consortium for Scenario Planning

The Consortium for Scenario Planning, an initiative of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, is a participation organization established in 2017 to foster growth in the application of scenario planning in rural and urban areas.

Participants range from rural, city, county, and regional planners to urban managers and more. It works toward a vision of communities regularly using scenario planning to help make important decisions, increasing their capacity to act strategically in pursuit of equitable, prosperous, and sustainable places in a complex and uncertain world. Its mission is to improve the practice of scenario planning and broaden its use in communities of all sizes across disciplines.

The Consortium for Scenario Planning offers a broad array of educational resources to all, coordinates peer exchanges to help scenario planning practitioners share information and learn from one another, and holds an annual conference and workshops at other events (Figure 2) (Consortium for Scenario Planning 2019a, 2019b).

For more information, or to join the consortium, see www.scenarioplanning.io .

Figure 2. Scenario planning session at APA's 2017 National Planning Conference. Photo courtesy Consortium for Scenario Planning.

Scenario Planning Project Examples

A number of planning agencies have applied scenario planning because of its compelling benefits. These projects serve as an illustration of the different ways that scenario planning can be linked with urban and rural planning, as mentioned in the introduction.

The Oregon Department of Transportation leveraged scenario planning as a defining concept for plan organization , providing a useful guidance document to help agencies integrate scenario planning into their land-use and transportation planning work (Oregon Department of Transportation 2013).

The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC), based in Philadelphia, used scenario planning among professionals and experts to generate ideas or insights for more detailed planning work . DVRPC described its effort, called "Future Forces," in the following terms:

As the first step in updating the region's long-range plan, the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission convened the Greater Philadelphia Futures Group, with experts in economics, land use, the environment, public health, transportation, and technology coming from academia, the private sector, nonprofit organizations, and government to collaboratively identify key regional Future Forces. ... This endeavor does not try to identify a "preferred" scenario for the future. Rather, it focuses on the types of change that are likely to occur, and what the region can do to better prepare for them.

Though DVRPC considered the scenario planning effort to be primarily a part of its long-range transportation planning effort, the knowledge gained from "Future Forces" also impacted DVRPC's work in long-range planning goals to build livable communities, manage growth, and improve connections to the global economy (DVRPC 2016).

The Mid-America Regional Council (MARC), based in Kansas City, Missouri, built a scenario planning effort into the center of its Regional Transportation Plan 2050 transportation planning effort (Figure 3) as a component within a larger planning process (Rivarola 2019). In addition, MARC led an interdisciplinary scenario planning process for the region as a whole, with the knowledge gained feeding into the transportation planning effort (MARC 2018).

Figure 3. MARC's diagram of scenario planning activities embedded within other planning efforts. Courtesy MARC.

The Need for Scenario Planning Process Design

Planning projects commonly have a "planning process" serving as an overall summary of the activities to be undertaken to lead to the project goal. The planning process addresses general activities, the nature of stakeholder engagement and public participation, key analysis steps, and products. Often organized along a timeline, these documents range in sophistication but help all participants understand the overall project.

In this PAS Memo , the phrase "process design" refers to the act of working towards a clearly defined roadmap, tailored to the specific needs of a planning agency, that outlines tasks needed for a successful scenario planning process. Once a planning agency has developed such a roadmap, it has a well-defined scenario planning process ready to implement.

There are a number of reasons why it is necessary to carefully design a scenario planning process. First, starting a project by laying out a transparent process will reduce barriers for first-time scenario planners. Planning professionals new to scenario planning tend to dive in — often into the deep end — with a lack of certainty about what it involves and where it will end. This sometimes results in confusing changes in direction along the way, and it also deters those who require more up-front information from getting started in the first place. Clear guidance in laying out a clear process leads to more confidence.

Second, without a clear roadmap, agency staff members have difficulty communicating with colleagues about what scenario planning involves and may face challenges in garnering internal support to start scenario planning. An organization often considers applying scenario planning for the first time because one or a few staff members decide it is of value. When staff members seek to gain internal support, they need to be able to communicate clearly and confidently about the level of commitment required and the gains that level of commitment can achieve.

Third, intentional process design from start to finish contributes to better results and more useful evaluation of the process to feed improvement over time. Scenario planning may appear at first glance to be a fairly straightforward process, but it has its own types of roadblocks and areas of confusion that can delay or even derail a project. An organization must know where it is headed to increase its chances of success, and it must be able to evaluate its work for continuous improvement.

Fourth, process design enables comparison among scenario planning projects for the development of best practices. As the foundational components of process design become further developed, an underlying structure of scenario planning will emerge. This article is a step in that direction. As the structure is better understood, planning professionals will be better able to compare and contrast different scenario planning efforts through the seemingly small decisions the organization makes along the way to orient the process — the organization's process design.

Past scenario planning resources have provided valuable frameworks to help planners understand the various aspects of scenario planning. The JAPA article, "Scenario Planning for Urban Planners: Toward a Practitioner's Guide," lays out a scenario typology with nine major components organized into three areas: context, primary decisions, and secondary decisions as shown (Figure 4) (Chakraborty and McMillan 2015). The process shared in this PAS Memo is based on this foundational resource.

Figure 4. Components of a typical scenario planning process. Courtesy Arnab Chakraborty (from Chakraborty and McMillan 2015, © The American Planning Association, reprinted by permission of Taylor & Francis Ltd. on behalf of The American Planning Association).

The Components of Process Design

Process design for scenario planning can be broken down into three components: direction setting, approach development, and roadmap creation (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Scenario planning process design components. Courtesy Consortium for Scenario Planning/Janae Futrell.

While each component builds upon the last in a linear fashion, in practice this is often an iterative process. Planners should continue to revisit the steps in the process as new information comes into play, updating as needed. In addition, planners may add additional subcomponents to build in steps they find useful. The following sections walk planners through the steps of process design for scenario planning.

Direction Setting

The first component, direction setting, helps orient the process towards specific needs, outcomes, and stakeholder identification. By understanding this component and its steps, an organization will have a solid base for the next two components, approach development and roadmap creation.

Choose the Appropriate Scenario Planning Model

There are two primary models of scenario planning: normative scenario planning and exploratory scenario planning. Both are viable approaches for a planning effort, but each helps to address different challenges that organizations commonly face.

The primary purpose of normative scenario planning is to reach a specific target. For example, let's say a planning agency is working on a housing plan. The specific target is adding a certain number of housing units to meet future demand 10 years from now. While the target is clear, there are a number of variables to take into account for how the target is reached: geographic dispersement, proximity to public transit and other mobility options, housing types and density, land availability, real estate developer requirements, and others. These variables can be packaged into many different combinations, or scenarios , for reaching the target, each with different benefits and concerns.

Oftentimes, scenarios are compared to each other according to how the variables "score" (e.g., a 10-point scale for proximity to public transit, 9 = very high proximity), aiding the evaluation process. Ultimately, a "preferred scenario" (or "preferred alternative") is identified for the plan, and then steps can be implemented to work towards that scenario.

In contrast, the primary purpose of exploratory scenario planning is to navigate uncertainty. For example, let's say an economic development authority is working on an economic development plan. The local economy has been built around manufacturing and retail for decades, but there are a number of concerns: many of the manufacturing businesses have closed and those remaining have not kept up with the latest technology; existing retail is primarily big-box style and has not adapted to changes in online shopping; and the area has recently experienced more frequent and more damaging flooding, which has affected manufacturing and retail buildings.

In this case, the economic development authority may embark on exploratory scenario planning to first identify all the factors that are causing challenges in the present, as well as those likely to cause challenges in the future — perhaps some they have not even considered yet. Then, they will combine the directions of "driving forces of change" into plausible future end states (Figure 6). These are scenarios , or depictions of what the future could be like, often explained as stories to appeal to a broad audience. There are a variety of approaches to constructing exploratory scenarios, ranging from highly quantitative to qualitative.

Figure 6. Scenario planning process design components. Courtesy Consortium for Scenario Planning/Janae Futrell.

Once these exploratory scenarios are clear, viable responses to the scenarios are drafted. Responses can include initiatives, projects, new services, or new policies, and are either contingent or robust responses (Chakraborty, Kaza, Knaap, and Deal 2011).

Contingent responses are those put in place only under certain circumstances when there is a large amount of uncertainty or unknowns in the situation (e.g., significant sea level rise may be projected, but the actual pace and amount is yet unknown). The planning process establishes "tipping points" or "triggers" to clarify when an unknown is now known, which becomes an alert system of sorts for when contingent responses should move forward (e.g., hitting a threshold of 0.25 inches of sea level rise by a certain date may indicate the pace and future amount to address). The tipping point becomes an indicator of a more significant, and now more certain, future event.

In contrast, robust responses work well across all scenarios and can become part of a plan under most any future circumstance. This is because there is little uncertainty surrounding the challenge at hand and general agreement that there is a need for the response. Through exploratory scenario planning, it is acknowledged that the future cannot be predicted, but preparation and proactive action can and should take place.

In addition, there is a third model of scenario planning: predictive . Scenario planning is predictive if "the scenarios are designed to depict the most likely future based on data-driven trends and input from actors (forecasting), or if the future outcomes are a direct result of decisions made in an earlier period" (Chakraborty and McMillan 2015). This PAS Memo focuses on the normative and exploratory scenario planning models because they are the most commonly applied of the three.

It is important to keep in mind that normative scenario planning and exploratory scenario planning can both be used in the same planning process, depending on the needs of the organization.

Determine the Desired Outcome

What outcome will the organization be counting on after the scenario planning process is complete? In general, scenario planning can pursue three outcomes: education and awareness, strategic direction, and action identification.

A scenario planning process focused on education and awareness seeks to educate staff, stakeholders, and the public to increase their awareness about the various issues at hand and perhaps influence future decision making. Education and awareness also have a strong role to play in consensus building, which may be needed for some planning efforts.

As an example, the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) incorporated a robust public engagement component, including more than 120 workshops and other events, into its ON TO 2050 planning effort for transportation, housing, economic development, environment, and other issues (Figure 7).

This had a two-fold objective. First, CMAP wanted to increase the public's awareness of future challenges in the Chicago region, such as further intensification of climate change impacts and further constraints on public resources, while preparing them for opportunities pertaining to technology and changing regional preferences. Second, CMAP wanted to hear from the public on issues of concern as the region moves towards 2050. A two-way dialogue was designed to give and receive information to influence the exploratory scenario planning process (CMAP 2018).

Figure 7. Map of public engagement for the "alternative futures" phase development of CMAP's ON TO 2050 regional plan. Courtesy CMAP.

Another possible outcome is strategic direction. For example, an organization embarking on a new planning effort may need a clear strategy, or set of strategies, to orient the planning effort. Normative scenario planning can help identify the preferred combination of variables that reveal clear strategies to work towards the target. Exploratory scenario planning can help establish various "driving forces of change" and generate a set of strategies to help navigate specific areas of uncertainty.

The third option, action identification, targets decision making and often takes the form of policy and project pinpointing and selection. Through this option, the scenario planning effort directly influences specific, planned actions for operations and implementation. In a normative scenario planning process, the variables that are part of the "preferred scenario" would inform the concrete actions chosen for implementation. In an exploratory scenario planning process, the contingent and robust responses would provide similar decision-making direction.

A scenario planning process may incorporate more than one type of outcome. Metrolinx, which manages and integrates road and public transportation for the Toronto and Hamilton metro area in Canada, leveraged exploratory scenario planning for its regional transportation plan. As a direct result of scenario planning, Metrolinx came to the conclusion that the organization should widen its emphasis from providing transit infrastructure to include other strategies such as increasing active transportation (i.e., walking and biking), rethinking regional parking (e.g., making transit more attractive), and fostering transit-supportive development, incorporating the entire mobility picture — a greater variety of transportation options and supportive policies to enhance their viability (Metrolinx 2018). Metrolinx also evaluated multiple portfolios of transportation projects based on their potential resiliency under various scenarios, influencing their actions in the form of project selection. In this example, Metrolinx oriented its exploratory scenario planning efforts towards outcomes in both strategic direction and action identification.

List All Relevant Stakeholders

A scenario planning process is a planning effort at its core, and planning efforts have different types of stakeholders. Early on in a scenario planning process, it is critical to identify which individuals and groups should take part at various stages of the project.

First, an organization should define its internal stakeholders, such as project leads, subject matter experts, key departments, management oversight, and others. Then it should identify external stakeholders: other organizations, special interest groups, and members of the general public. This could include, but would not be limited to, individuals and organizations with:

• Joint interests in the scenario planning effort
• Subject matter expertise in a key area
• Decision-making power or influence over the topics of interest
• Potential to be substantially affected by decisions
• Insights or preferences that decision makers need to inform their decisions
• Responsibility in implementing potential decisions

Later steps in the design process offer additional opportunities for identifying stakeholders and determining their roles, and at any point in the design process, new information may reveal that a new stakeholder should be included.

Approach Development

The second component, approach development, helps further detail the process by focusing on key factors and building out stakeholder interaction. An understanding of this component and its steps prepares an organization for the next component, roadmap creation.

List Key Scenario Planning Factors to Consider

A strength of scenario planning is that it allows different topics to be combined in novel ways. However, like all planning efforts, choices must be made about the scope and focus of each effort.

A first step in developing the approach is to draft a preliminary list of key factors. Any normative scenario planning process will have a set of variables to consider determined by the established target, while any exploratory scenario planning process will have a set of "driving forces of change" to consider determined by the areas of uncertainty that need to be navigated. This preliminary list helps to better orient the process and support additional steps in the process design, such as making sure all relevant stakeholders are involved. The list will continue to grow in content and detail once the scenario planning process, aided with the roadmap, gets under way. As a result, the scope and focus may change as new information is gained.

Determine How, When, and Why to Engage Stakeholders

A next step in developing the scenario planning approach is developing the full list of stakeholders to engage and determining their roles in the process.

When education and awareness is the anticipated outcome, it is critical to identify who to educate and make aware, why their education and awareness is needed, and how they will become more educated and aware.

Building on the earlier exploratory scenario planning example, the economic development authority may decide to hold work sessions with local businesses to help them see how the future might unfold. Their education and awareness are needed because they are the primary decision makers for their businesses, which in turn determine the types of local jobs available. To increase their education and awareness, an interaction approach could include surveys and facilitated sessions, using data collection and storytelling both in person and online.

In addition, the types and points of input should be established. For some stakeholders, more input will be needed than with others. In this example, local businesses may be open to explaining their future plans, and only they could provide such information. As the interaction approach is developed, it is also necessary to identify specific points of input — at what point in the process will they explain their future plans? Once these input types and points are established, it becomes clear what type of information will serve as process inputs and when the information would be gained.

Likewise, for strategic direction and action identification, it is critical to establish which stakeholders are needed and how exactly they will be involved. In addition, it should be made clear which stakeholders are able to influence the strategy and actions and to what degree — establishing the influence level (e.g., low, medium, and high levels). For example, setting an effective strategy may require participation from all stakeholders — from the external organizations with specific subject matter expertise to the local members of the community who know their place the best — but the ultimate decision-making authority for action identification may lie solely with the organization running the process. On the other hand, some organizations may take a more collaborative approach and directly involve other stakeholders in decision making for action identification. In either case, the scenario planning process should be built to clearly indicate who should be involved, how, and when.

It is possible that new stakeholders should be added to the list due to their ability to provide insights into key factors, because of either their topical knowledge or ability to address related challenges — determining the specific role they will play. Once the key factors are well understood, the stakeholder approach should be revisited to ensure all stakeholders related to the key factors are included. Scenario planning processes involve feedback loops; stakeholders can help to better understand key factors or identify new ones in turn.

Roadmap Creation

The third and last component, roadmap creation, further supports organizations in generating a roadmap that is tailored to their specific scenario planning needs. As the culminating component, its steps require an understanding of the first two components, direction setting and approach development.

Select a Scenario Planning Process Manager

All successful projects have solid management behind them, and scenario planning is not an exception. The scenario planning process manager will oversee all activities and ensure connectivity between the various moving parts of the effort.

Establish Milestones and List Associated Tasks

While each scenario planning process is tailored to the specific needs of the organization and the project, there are a few milestones common to all scenario planning processes, each with an associated series of tasks or efforts.

The process manager, working with other stakeholders as needed, should develop and confirm the list of milestones. Then the process manager should draft a list of tasks necessary to reach each milestone. Keep in mind that that some of these measures may get generated iteratively, and milestones may need to be adjusted.

Common normative scenario planning milestones:

• Targets or goals pinpointed
• Variables connected with specific target established
• Evaluation criteria identified
• Multiple scenarios generated
• Preferred scenario selected

Common exploratory scenario planning milestones:

• Driving forces of change pinpointed
• Multiple scenarios, or plausible future end states, generated
• Contingent and robust responses drafted
• Tipping points/triggers for contingent responses established
• Contingent and robust responses finalized

For normative scenario planning in particular, quantitative analysis through data and technology is common, so focused attention should be given to this topic. The more detailed the list of milestones and associated tasks are, the clearer the data and technology requirements will be.

In contrast, exploratory scenario planning is often completed with minimal application of data and technology. Because this model involves pinpointing driving forces of change and generating multiple plausible future end states by weaving together the various ways that driving forces of change may develop, focused attention should be given to this topic. In some cases, exploratory scenario planning benefits from quantitative analysis through data and technology, which can be built into the process as needed.

Inventory Resources and Address Resource Gaps

With the tasks and milestones clear, the next step is to address resources. For each milestone and the associated tasks, the process manager should list required resources. Examples include but are not limited to scenario planning expertise, subject matter expertise, financial support, data, and technology. This list is a valuable internal planning document for the professionals involved.

After drafting the list of required resources, the process manager should inventory available resources. An organization's internal resources could include staff members with scenario planning or subject matter expertise, software tools, relevant datasets, and available financial resources (which can be used to procure scenario planning consulting services, software for quantitative analysis, or critical datasets).

An organization may also be able to tap external resources. A collaborator or partner organization may be open to sharing various resources at low or no cost, or local college or university students may be able to contribute to the effort. Staff members can teach themselves various aspects of scenario planning or leverage information shared by peers about how they completed their scenario planning processes.

After required resources and available resources have been listed, a gap analysis can be completed to identify required, yet currently unavailable, resources. From there, the process manager can pinpoint options to obtain the necessary resources, beginning with financial resources to help procure missing needs. This includes double-checking funding availability both internally and externally and identifying grants and funding opportunities.

Internal financial resources may include funds available for an upcoming year, unused funds from other projects that could be repurposed, or funds tied to specific subject matter areas relevant to the scenario planning process. External financial resources may be available from other public organizations on the local, regional, state, or federal levels or from nonprofit partners in the forms of donations, grants, or others.

If the process manager decides that moving into a procurement process will be a part of the scenario planning process, the procurement timeline should be added to the list of milestones and tasks. For instance, the process could have various needs ranging from consultants with scenario planning or specific subject matter expertise, to scenario planning software or critical new datasets. While there are many procurement methods, a common approach is to post a Request for Proposals (RFP).

If an organization finds that the resource gap is too broad, and that financial options are limited, it could work on designing a scenario planning process that is scoped based on its resources. Scenario planning can work on a variety of scales and budgets. In fact, an organization new to scenario planning could benefit from a small effort the first time to learn how the process works before scaling up to a larger future effort.

Draft a Full Process Roadmap Aligned With Related Planning Efforts

Many scenario planning processes are not stand-alone efforts but are undertaken in connection with larger planning efforts. Scenario planning can be linked with urban and rural planning in three primary ways: as a defining concept for plan organization, to generate ideas or insights for more detailed planning work, or as a component within a larger planning process. In these cases, the scenario planning tasks and milestones should be aligned with the timeline of the larger planning effort. From here, a full process roadmap can be drafted.

Typical process roadmap components include the following:

• Tasks/subtasks with titles, descriptions, and dates
• Milestones with titles, descriptions, and dates
• Responsible party listed for each task/subtask
• Firm deadlines and dependencies between tasks and milestones
• Resources needed for each task/subtask
• The process roadmap should be supported with a detailed budget to ensure all the financial details of the process are clear.

A Summary of Scenario Planning Process Design

Choose the appropriate scenario planning model(s)

• The primary purpose of normative scenario planning is to reach a specific target.
• The primary purpose of exploratory scenario planning is to navigate uncertainty.
• Key Resource: Providing a thorough grounding in the history of scenario planning and the latest developments, "Shaping Places with Scenarios: A New Paradigm for Urban and Regional Planning" will soon be published by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (Goodspeed forthcoming).
• Key Resource: To support practitioners with case studies and project examples specifically for exploratory scenario planning, the "Exploratory Scenario Planning Policy Focus Report" will be provided by the Sonoran Institute in joint partnership with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (Stapleton forthcoming).

Determine the desired outcome(s)

• Scenario planning can be oriented towards three types of outcomes: education and awareness, strategic direction, and action identification.
• An organization can target one, two, or all three outcome types.
• Key Resource: To better demonstrate the connection between scenario planning and its impact on plans and practices, the Consortium for Scenario Planning is supporting the research project and report "Do Regional Scenario Efforts Affect Local Plans: An Empirical Analysis." This resource is in process to be provided in late 2019/early 2020.

List all relevant stakeholders

• Scenario planning process stakeholders should be identified early in the process.
• At any point in the process, new information may reveal that a new stakeholder should be included.

List key scenario planning factors to consider

• Any normative scenario planning process will have a set of variables to consider determined by the established target.
• Any exploratory scenario planning process will have a set of "driving forces of change" to consider determined by the areas of uncertainty that need to be navigated.
• Key Resource: "Using Scenarios to Make Urban Plans" is a helpful resource for exploratory scenario planning in particular that provides guidance on generating driving forces, organizing driving forces, connecting driving forces with values, and structuring scenarios (Avin 2007).

Determine how, when, and why to engage stakeholders

• Establishing which stakeholders are able to influence the strategy and actions and the degree to which they are able to influence them is key for a clear decision-making process.
• Because stakeholders can provide insights into key factors through their topical knowledge, help address challenges related to key factors, or both, the stakeholder approach should be revisited once the key factors are well understood.

Select a scenario planning process manager

• A scenario planning process requires a "process manager" to oversee all activities and ensure connectivity between the various moving parts of the effort.

Establish milestones and list associated tasks

• There is a basic set of milestones common to scenario planning processes.
• Each milestone has a series of tasks or efforts associated with it.
• Key Resource: "Sketch Tools for Regional Sustainability Scenario Planning" assists practitioners in comparing and contrasting various software tools that perform scenario planning functions (Avin, Cambridge Systematics, and Patnode 2016).
• Key Resource: To help planners handle one of many data-related challenges, the Consortium for Scenario Planning's working groups have been drafting a "Tax Parcels Data for Regional Planning" guidance document. This resource is in process to be provided in late 2019/early 2020.

Inventory resources and identify and address resource gaps

• Identify resources required for each task and milestone along with internal and external available resources.
• Pursue financial support and funding assistance for any resource gaps.
• If procurement is needed, it should be built into the process.
• Key Resource: To help clarify various funding options, the Consortium for Scenario Planning's working groups have been working on a "Scenario Planning Funding Opportunities" guidance document. This resource is in process to be provided in late 2019/early 2020.
• Key Resource: To help planners avoid starting from scratch when developing an RFP for scenario planning, the Consortium for Scenario Planning's working groups are developing libraries of sample scenario planning RFPs and scopes of work for exploratory scenario planning services ranging from workshops to technology roadmaps and long-range plans. Both resources are in process to be provided in late 2019/early 2020.

Draft a full process roadmap aligned with related planning efforts

• Completing all the previous steps enables the development of a full process roadmap to guide the ongoing management of the scenario planning process.
• The steps of the scenario planning process should be aligned with larger related planning efforts.

Additional Resources:

• The American Planning Association and the Consortium for Scenario Planning partnered on the creation of the Scenario Planning KnowledgeBase (American Planning Association 2019), a comprehensive resource that organizes a wide variety of content (e.g., reports, project overviews, books, and others) for practitioners interested in learning more about specific scenario planning-related topics.
• To help practitioners learn from their planning peers, the Consortium for Scenario Planning provided a five-part educational webinar series in 2018 (Consortium for Scenario Planning 2018). The video recordings and slides from this series can be used to gain an understanding of how scenario planning has been applied in a range of contexts.
• The Consortium for Scenario Planning's annual conference is an annual in-person learning opportunity to dive deep into scenario planning (Consortium for Scenario Planning 2019a). Typically held in fall each year, the conference provides sessions on the latest scenario planning work in the urban and rural planning profession and enables networking with those new to scenario planning and those with decades of experience.

Designing Your Own Scenario Planning Process

Ready to design your own scenario planning process? Use this workbook to walk through the steps and critical questions for putting together a scenario planning process based on the specific needs of your project or organization (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Scenario planning process design path. From the Scenario Planning Process Design Workbook . Illustration by Consortium for Scenario Planning/Janae Futrell.

The workbook orders the components and steps of process design in the likely sequence in which they would occur, and helps you produce a roadmap to help guide your scenario planning process and associated activities.

Designing a scenario planning process involves a series of decisions that result in the final product. This PAS Memo clarifies and specifies what some of these decisions are and provides the information that planners need to effectively tailor their own scenario planning process to their nuanced needs.

The Scenario Planning Process Design Workbook offers planners a step-by-step resource that takes learning gained through the text and applies it to key action steps. This helps to demystify how scenario planning works and actively encourages planners to try it for the first time.

By unpacking the wide range of decisions an agency makes to produce scenario planning efforts, this PAS Memo invites planners to think of scenario planning not as a product, but as an achievable process to shape and strengthen their organization's planning efforts.

About the Author

Janae Futrell, AICP, LEED AP, a city planner and architectural designer, is the owner of a consulting business, Civic Sphere . She supported the Consortium for Scenario Planning , an initiative of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, from 2017 to 2019 in its strategic direction and operational needs. Prior to these efforts, she worked with the Atlanta Regional Commission, City of Atlanta, John Portman and Associates, and various nonprofits. Her work has also taken her to Haiti, the Netherlands, and the Philippines. Futrell holds a bachelor of business administration, MS in architecture, and MS in urban development and international cooperation. She received an Erasmus Mundus scholarship from the European Commission from 2009 to 2011.

References and Resources

American Planning Association. 2019. "Scenario Planning KnowledgeBase." Available at www.planning.org/knowledgebase/scenarioplanning/ .

Avin, U., Cambridge Systematics, and P. Patnode. 2016. "Sketch Tools for Regional Sustainability Scenario Planning." Study conducted for American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Standing Committee on Planning. Available at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/docs/NCHRP08-36(117)_FR.pdf .

Avin, Uri. 2007. "Using Scenarios to Make Urban Plans." In Engaging the Future , edited by Lewis D. Hopkins and Marisa A. Zapata, 103–34. Cambridge, Mass.: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Chakraborty, Arnab, and Andrew McMillan. 2015. "Scenario Planning for Urban Planners: Toward a Practitioner's Guide." Journal of the American Planning Association 81(1): 18–29. Available at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2015.1038576 .

Chakraborty, Arnab, Nikhil Kaza, Gerrit-Jan Knaap, and Brian Deal. 2011. "Robust Plans and Contingent Plans: Scenario Planning for an Uncertain World." Journal of the American Planning Association 77(3): 251–66. Available at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2011.582394 .

Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning. 2018. "ON TO 2050." Available at www.cmap.illinois.gov/2050 .

Consortium for Scenario Planning. 2018. "Summer Scenarios: Educational Webinar Series." June – August. Available at www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios .

———. 2019a. "Events and Announcements." Available at www.scenarioplanning.io/events .

———. 2019b. "Resources." Available at www.scenarioplanning.io/resources .

Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. 2016. "Greater Philadelphia Future Forces." Available at www.dvrpc.org/reports/16007A.pdf .

Goodspeed, Robert. Forthcoming. "Shaping Places with Scenarios: A New Paradigm for Urban and Regional Planning." Cambridge, Mass.: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Metrolinx. 2018. "2041 Regional Transportation Plan." Available at www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/rtp .

Mid-America Regional Council (MARC). 2018. "Scenario Analysis & Project Selection." Available at www.marc.org/Transportation/Metropolitan-Transportation-Plan/assets/RTP2050-Scenario-Analysis-and-Project-Selection.aspx .

Oregon Department of Transportation. 2013. "Oregon Scenario Planning Guidelines: Resources for Developing and Evaluating Alternative Land Use and Transportation Scenarios." Available at www.oregon.gov/ODOT/Planning/Documents/Oregon-Scenario-Planning-Guidelines.pdf .

Rivarola, Martin. 2019. "Scenario Planning Mission Identification: Setting Your Direction." Presentation, Consortium for Scenario Planning, April 9.

Stapleton, Jeremy. Forthcoming. "Exploratory Scenario Planning (XSP): A Planning Tool for Responding and Adapting in Uncertain Times." Edited by Kathleen McCormick. Cambridge, Mass.: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

PAS Memo is a bimonthly online publication of APA's Planning Advisory Service. Joel Albizo, FASAE, CAE, Chief Executive Officer; David Rouse, FAICP, Managing Director of Research and Advisory Services; Ann F. Dillemuth, AICP, Editor. Learn more at www.planning.org/pas .

©2019 American Planning Association and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means without permission in writing from APA or Lincoln. PAS Memo (ISSN 2169-1908) is published by the American Planning Association, which has offices at 205 N. Michigan Ave., Suite 1200, Chicago, IL 60601-5927, and 1030 15th St. NW, Suite 750 West, Washington, DC 20005-1503; www.planning.org .

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CASE STUDIES: THE REAL WORLD

It would be easy to think of scenario planning as a tool that is mainly useful to planners and decision makers in the business world. Corporations are typically interested in getting a handle on issues such as how consumer tastes and attitudes might develop, or how receptive markets might be to their new product ideas. So it would be natural to assume that such organizations are the main beneficiaries of scenario planning.

But this is shortchanging the potential value of the technique to so many other kinds of organizations, which can also use scenario planning to peer into the future and explore the alternative environments where, perhaps measuring success in different terms, they need to be every bit as effective as a business that is aiming to grow its market share or profits.

In the following part of the book, you’ll find four case studies illustrating how different types of organizations have used scenario planning to visualize the way their future landscape might develop. In each case, they undertook the exercise to generate insights about the opportunities and threats that would be likely to emerge in a key area of activity so that they could take the necessary steps today to prepare themselves for the potential changes afoot.

To show that scenario planning benefits many outfits besides for-profit businesses, I’ve intentionally chosen some unusual practitioners:

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• BUSINESS & INDUSTRY

Scenario Planning: Navigating Through Today's Uncertain World

• Management Accounting
• Business Planning

Imagine you are sitting at your desk in September 2007. The Dow is close to 13,900; U.S. unemployment is 4.5%; and oil is $45 a barrel. You are in the middle of developing your organization’s plans and budgets for 2008. How likely is it that the assumptions in your 2008 plan accurately forecast that in September 2008 the Dow will be below 9,000; U.S. unemployment will have risen to 6.5%, on its way to more than 10%; and oil prices will have risen to more than $140 a barrel before falling below $40 a few months later?

An aberration? Unlikely, not with a European sovereign debt crisis, a massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and major health care reform in the United States. Uncertainty, volatility and risk are here to stay. The world has been transformed from a series of loosely connected, reasonably predictable economies to a complex web of relationships where the global impact of local events is felt almost instantaneously.

In this climate the past is not a good predictor of the future. In response to such uncertainty, scenario planning has been used by organizations as diverse as the Australian government, AutoNation, British Airways, Corning, Disney, General Electric, the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, JDS Uniphase, KinderCare (a large U.S. chain of day care centers), Mercedes, Royal Dutch Shell, UPS and the World Bank. Today, scenario planning is being widely used by many small and midsize organizations operating in uncertain or volatile markets.

WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING?

Scenario planning is a way of understanding the forces at work today, such as demographics, globalization, technological change and environmental sustainability that will shape the future. While the origins of scenario planning were in the world of strategic planning, many organizations now apply scenario planning techniques to the operational planning, budgeting and forecasting processes as a means of evaluating their effectiveness under different sets of assumptions about the future.

Two forces are fueling the increased popularity and use of scenario planning. The first is the rapid and broad global impact of unpredictable events such as 9/11, or the global credit crisis. The second is the accelerated pace at which new trends become material. For example, the rapid growth of China and India, the rise of social media, and smart phone adoption have occurred in a decade or less.

BUILDING SCENARIO PLANS

Scenario planning is largely focused on answering three questions:

• What could happen?
• What would be the impact on our strategies, plans and budgets?
• How should we respond?

Although there are numerous methodologies for building scenario plans, they all follow the same basic approach (see Exhibit 1).

Before embarking on a scenario planning exercise, it is essential to be clear about the issue you want to address, and then to define the appropriate scope and time horizon for the scenarios to be constructed. There are four broad types of scenarios:

• Social. For example, what are the implications of increasing obesity?
• Economic. For example, how will the rapid economic growth of China and India change global markets?
• Political. For example, how will changes in U.S. health care policy affect the economics of small businesses?
• Technological. For example, how will the increasing use of smart phones impact desktop and laptop computer use?

Answering the following questions will help determine whether a scenario planning project makes sense and how to define the objectives and scope:

• What issues or decisions are we trying to evaluate?
• Is there a high degree of uncertainty about the future? If yes, can scenario planning be an effective tool?
• What is the time horizon for making decisions and then executing them?

After the organization has agreed on the issue(s) to be studied and defined the scope and time horizon for the project, they should be documented, confirmed with senior management, and clearly communicated to everyone who will be involved in the project.

At the end of this step, the project team should have developed a project charter that clearly states the objectives, scope, issues to be addressed, deliverables, and have secured approval from senior management.

ROLE OF THE CPA IN SCENARIO PLANNING

Finance and accounting professionals are being asked to help managers better understand the threats and opportunities in today’s world. As many organizations integrate aspects of scenario planning into financial planning, budgeting and forecasting processes, they are looking to their CPA partners for support in conducting rigorous and insightful analysis.

Applied judiciously, scenario planning can provide valuable insights as to how the future may unfold, thereby equipping organizations to react with speed, agility and confidence.

Scenario planning is often used as an input to an organization’s overall risk management process and can aid in areas of interest to CPAs such as risk appetite evaluation, capital planning, credit quality, cash flow forecasting and hedging strategies.

An understanding of scenario planning equips CPAs with tools that can help advance their careers into more senior finance or general management roles through a richer understanding of how to effectively manage in a volatile and uncertain world.

CPAs can effectively support a scenario planning process in their organizations by:

• Analyzing the financial implications of alternative strategies under different future scenarios;
• Testing the sensitivity of key assumptions, financial measures and variables under different scenarios;
• Developing alternative financial plans and forecasts under different scenarios;
• Defining key performance measures and leading indicators to track potential triggers of key drivers of alternate scenarios; and
• Monitoring and reporting on internal performance and external indicators likely to impact the current strategy.

SCENARIO PLANNING IN ACTION

Let’s see how scenario planning can work in practice by following the progress of ElectricIQ, a software company that develops smart systems for managing electricity use. This case study is based upon a real organization. Some details have been changed to maintain client confidentiality.

ElectricIQ was founded in 2005, and by 2009 sales had reached $25 million a year, primarily from the installation of electricity management systems in new office buildings in Western Europe. Management believed that ElectricIQ had reached a tipping point.

With environmental sustainability becoming a hot public policy issue, the company believed it was time to enter the emerging smart grid market for digital environmental management systems. Management wanted to gain insights as to the relative attractiveness/risk of the market.

The company decided to embark upon a scenario planning project to help understand the alternatives as an input to R&D, marketing and product development plans. A project team led by the CFO and including the vice president of marketing, the head of research and a financial analyst was formed, and after initial discussions with the management team, the project’s objectives were defined as “Developing a better understanding of the markets for smart grid, the risk profiles of each market and the ease of market access.”

The first step for the ElectricIQ team was to identify the likely drivers of the future environment. This is the most important step in scenario planning since the ability to define the correct drivers and then understand the impact of changes in drivers is at the heart of effective scenario planning. Through discussions with the management team, customers, investors and external thought leaders from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), General Electric, IBM and Shell, the team developed a simple driver model around the issue of the Demand for Renewable Energy Sources. Two level 1 drivers, Social Opinion and Political Action , were identified, and each level 1 driver was then mapped to three level 2 drivers. For social opinion, these were the credibility of climate change data, the technical viability of potential renewable energy sources and the price of such options. For political action, they were the availability of government subsidies, the regulatory framework and the role of tax policy in energy use (see Exhibit 2) . The team then used this framework to identify the types of data it would collect.

This included data about economic growth; forecasts of construction activity; likely government actions to encourage adoption of environmental control systems; and the likely players in the market for environmental control systems. Not all the data was quantitative; some of the most interesting inputs were the opinions of experts who specialize in conceptualizing alternative futures. The key is to collect a broad range of data with a view to developing credible scenarios of how the future may look.

The team then prioritized the drivers by mapping them against two axes. The first axis was an assessment of each driver’s impact on the issue being analyzed, and the second looked at the predictability of future trends for each driver (see Exhibit 3). Drivers that were both material and predictable (top-right circle) formed the basis for all scenarios that were developed. Those that were material but difficult to predict (top-left circle) defined the differences between the scenarios.

The team isolated those drivers that were most likely to shape future demand. It then developed four scenarios across two dimensions (see Exhibit 4). The dimensions were public opinion, which describes the level of consumer demand for environmentally friendly solutions, and public policy, which describes the extent to which government policy mandates “green” standards.

The team then developed narrative descriptions for each scenario:

Necessity. “Do It or Die”: Public opinion swings rapidly to green solutions and dramatically changes customer buying patterns. Products not seen as being green are shunned in the marketplace. Governments mandate adoption of environmentally friendly technologies.

Market driven. “Competitive Advantage”: Public opinion moves to green, and consumers will pay extra for the best products. Adoption is balanced between market innovation and tax-based incentives. Being green is a source of competitive advantage.

Mandate. “Cost of Doing Business”: Governments mandate adoption without incentives. Adoption is a “cost of doing business.” Consumers will not pay more for green solutions unless forced to do so.

The “S” curve. “Steady as She Goes”: Demand follows a traditional cycle of early adopters leading the way at high prices; as the market scales and prices drop, mass market adoption takes off before flattening out as maturity is reached.

ElectricIQ used these scenarios to frame strategies and make decisions affecting key elements of the business (see Exhibit 5).

Using the scenarios as a baseline, ElectricIQ’s finance team recast the company’s five-year plan and annual budget under each scenario to assess the financial implications and identify key performance metrics that could provide the organization with an early warning as to which scenario is actually playing out. The CFO also added metrics that tracked the key drivers to the company’s balanced scorecard, ensuring their constant visibility to the management team.

But the work was not done—scenario planning is not a one-off exercise. For example, what if just six months after the initial scenarios were completed, oil reached $200 a barrel and the G-20 imposed strict mandates on CO2 emissions to be met within five years? ElectricIQ would have had to revisit its plans and may have decided to focus on only two of the original four scenarios: “Do It or Die” and the “Cost of Doing Business.” After more detailed modeling of these two scenarios, it could decide to focus on delivering solutions that far exceed the mandated minimums while keeping prices reasonable.

The scenario plans allow them to make fast, confident decisions by providing a sound basis for evaluating the impact of changing market conditions. As the CFO commented, “We constantly review our actual and forecasted results against the scenarios so we can act quickly when we see any changes in the marketplace that will impact our performance.”

As organizations struggle to deal with an increasingly uncertain world, they are looking to their finance teams to assist in helping them understand the choices, opportunities and implications that uncertainty presents.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

David A.J. Axson ( [email protected] ) is the author of the Management Accounting Guideline Scenario Planning: Plotting a Course Through an Uncertain World, published July 2010 by the AICPA, CMA Canada and CIMA, from which this article has been adapted.

To comment on this article or to suggest an idea for another article, contact Matthew G. Lamoreaux, senior editor, at [email protected] or 919-402-4435.

AICPA RESOURCES

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Scenario planning: Lessons from the field – Case studies

Follow the journeys of a software company and a not-for-profit independent school as they implement scenario planning. Scenario Planning: Case Studies outlines a matrix approach as adopted by ElectricIQ, and a six-step scenario planning approach followed by Summit Path School.

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• scenario forecast and development
• how to collect and analyze data
• scenario impact assessment

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15 Real-Life Case Study Examples & Best Practices

Written by: Oghale Olori

Case studies are more than just success stories.

They are powerful tools that demonstrate the practical value of your product or service. Case studies help attract attention to your products, build trust with potential customers and ultimately drive sales.

It’s no wonder that 73% of successful content marketers utilize case studies as part of their content strategy. Plus, buyers spend 54% of their time reviewing case studies before they make a buying decision.

To ensure you’re making the most of your case studies, we’ve put together 15 real-life case study examples to inspire you. These examples span a variety of industries and formats. We’ve also included best practices, design tips and templates to inspire you.

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

What is a case study, 15 real-life case study examples, sales case study examples, saas case study examples, product case study examples, marketing case study examples, business case study examples, case study faqs.

• A case study is a compelling narrative that showcases how your product or service has positively impacted a real business or individual. 
• Case studies delve into your customer's challenges, how your solution addressed them and the quantifiable results they achieved.
• Your case study should have an attention-grabbing headline, great visuals and a relevant call to action. Other key elements include an introduction, problems and result section.
• Visme provides easy-to-use tools, professionally designed templates and features for creating attractive and engaging case studies.

A case study is a real-life scenario where your company helped a person or business solve their unique challenges. It provides a detailed analysis of the positive outcomes achieved as a result of implementing your solution.

Case studies are an effective way to showcase the value of your product or service to potential customers without overt selling. By sharing how your company transformed a business, you can attract customers seeking similar solutions and results.

Case studies are not only about your company's capabilities; they are primarily about the benefits customers and clients have experienced from using your product.

Every great case study is made up of key elements. They are;

• Attention-grabbing headline: Write a compelling headline that grabs attention and tells your reader what the case study is about. For example, "How a CRM System Helped a B2B Company Increase Revenue by 225%.
• Introduction/Executive Summary: Include a brief overview of your case study, including your customer’s problem, the solution they implemented and the results they achieved.
• Problem/Challenge: Case studies with solutions offer a powerful way to connect with potential customers. In this section, explain how your product or service specifically addressed your customer's challenges.
• Solution: Explain how your product or service specifically addressed your customer's challenges.
• Results/Achievements : Give a detailed account of the positive impact of your product. Quantify the benefits achieved using metrics such as increased sales, improved efficiency, reduced costs or enhanced customer satisfaction.
• Graphics/Visuals: Include professional designs, high-quality photos and videos to make your case study more engaging and visually appealing.
• Quotes/Testimonials: Incorporate written or video quotes from your clients to boost your credibility.
• Relevant CTA: Insert a call to action (CTA) that encourages the reader to take action. For example, visiting your website or contacting you for more information. Your CTA can be a link to a landing page, a contact form or your social media handle and should be related to the product or service you highlighted in your case study.

Now that you understand what a case study is, let’s look at real-life case study examples. Among these, you'll find some simple case study examples that break down complex ideas into easily understandable solutions.

In this section, we’ll explore SaaS, marketing, sales, product and business case study examples with solutions. Take note of how these companies structured their case studies and included the key elements.

We’ve also included professionally designed case study templates to inspire you.

1. Georgia Tech Athletics Increase Season Ticket Sales by 80%

Georgia Tech Athletics, with its 8,000 football season ticket holders, sought for a way to increase efficiency and customer engagement.

Their initial sales process involved making multiple outbound phone calls per day with no real targeting or guidelines. Georgia Tech believed that targeting communications will enable them to reach more people in real time.

Salesloft improved Georgia Tech’s sales process with an inbound structure. This enabled sales reps to connect with their customers on a more targeted level. The use of dynamic fields and filters when importing lists ensured prospects received the right information, while communication with existing fans became faster with automation.

As a result, Georgia Tech Athletics recorded an 80% increase in season ticket sales as relationships with season ticket holders significantly improved. Employee engagement increased as employees became more energized to connect and communicate with fans.

Why Does This Case Study Work?

In this case study example , Salesloft utilized the key elements of a good case study. Their introduction gave an overview of their customers' challenges and the results they enjoyed after using them. After which they categorized the case study into three main sections: challenge, solution and result.

Salesloft utilized a case study video to increase engagement and invoke human connection.

Incorporating videos in your case study has a lot of benefits. Wyzol’s 2023 state of video marketing report showed a direct correlation between videos and an 87% increase in sales.

The beautiful thing is that creating videos for your case study doesn’t have to be daunting.

With an easy-to-use platform like Visme, you can create top-notch testimonial videos that will connect with your audience. Within the Visme editor, you can access over 1 million stock photos , video templates, animated graphics and more. These tools and resources will significantly improve the design and engagement of your case study.

Simplify content creation and brand management for your team

• Collaborate on designs , mockups and wireframes with your non-design colleagues
• Lock down your branding to maintain brand consistency throughout your designs
• Why start from scratch? Save time with 1000s of professional branded templates

Sign up. It’s free.

2. WeightWatchers Completely Revamped their Enterprise Sales Process with HubSpot

WeightWatchers, a 60-year-old wellness company, sought a CRM solution that increased the efficiency of their sales process. With their previous system, Weightwatchers had limited automation. They would copy-paste message templates from word documents or recreate one email for a batch of customers.

This required a huge effort from sales reps, account managers and leadership, as they were unable to track leads or pull customized reports for planning and growth.

WeightWatchers transformed their B2B sales strategy by leveraging HubSpot's robust marketing and sales workflows. They utilized HubSpot’s deal pipeline and automation features to streamline lead qualification. And the customized dashboard gave leadership valuable insights.

As a result, WeightWatchers generated seven figures in annual contract value and boosted recurring revenue. Hubspot’s impact resulted in 100% adoption across all sales, marketing, client success and operations teams.

Hubspot structured its case study into separate sections, demonstrating the specific benefits of their products to various aspects of the customer's business. Additionally, they integrated direct customer quotes in each section to boost credibility, resulting in a more compelling case study.

Getting insight from your customer about their challenges is one thing. But writing about their process and achievements in a concise and relatable way is another. If you find yourself constantly experiencing writer’s block, Visme’s AI writer is perfect for you.

Visme created this AI text generator tool to take your ideas and transform them into a great draft. So whether you need help writing your first draft or editing your final case study, Visme is ready for you.

3. Immi’s Ram Fam Helps to Drive Over $200k in Sales

Immi embarked on a mission to recreate healthier ramen recipes that were nutritious and delicious. After 2 years of tireless trials, Immi finally found the perfect ramen recipe. However, they envisioned a community of passionate ramen enthusiasts to fuel their business growth.

This vision propelled them to partner with Shopify Collabs. Shopify Collabs successfully cultivated and managed Immi’s Ramen community of ambassadors and creators.

As a result of their partnership, Immi’s community grew to more than 400 dedicated members, generating over $200,000 in total affiliate sales.

The power of data-driven headlines cannot be overemphasized. Chili Piper strategically incorporates quantifiable results in their headlines. This instantly sparks curiosity and interest in readers.

While not every customer success story may boast headline-grabbing figures, quantifying achievements in percentages is still effective. For example, you can highlight a 50% revenue increase with the implementation of your product.

Take a look at the beautiful case study template below. Just like in the example above, the figures in the headline instantly grab attention and entice your reader to click through.

Having a case study document is a key factor in boosting engagement. This makes it easy to promote your case study in multiple ways. With Visme, you can easily publish, download and share your case study with your customers in a variety of formats, including PDF, PPTX, JPG and more!

4. How WOW! is Saving Nearly 79% in Time and Cost With Visme

This case study discusses how Visme helped WOW! save time and money by providing user-friendly tools to create interactive and quality training materials for their employees. Find out what your team can do with Visme. Request a Demo

WOW!'s learning and development team creates high-quality training materials for new and existing employees. Previous tools and platforms they used had plain templates, little to no interactivity features, and limited flexibility—that is, until they discovered Visme.

Now, the learning and development team at WOW! use Visme to create engaging infographics, training videos, slide decks and other training materials.

This has directly reduced the company's turnover rate, saving them money spent on recruiting and training new employees. It has also saved them a significant amount of time, which they can now allocate to other important tasks.

Visme's customer testimonials spark an emotional connection with the reader, leaving a profound impact. Upon reading this case study, prospective customers will be blown away by the remarkable efficiency achieved by Visme's clients after switching from PowerPoint.

Visme’s interactivity feature was a game changer for WOW! and one of the primary reasons they chose Visme.

“Previously we were using PowerPoint, which is fine, but the interactivity you can get with Visme is so much more robust that we’ve all steered away from PowerPoint.” - Kendra, L&D team, Wow!

Visme’s interactive feature allowed them to animate their infographics, include clickable links on their PowerPoint designs and even embed polls and quizzes their employees could interact with.

By embedding the slide decks, infographics and other training materials WOW! created with Visme, potential customers get a taste of what they can create with the tool. This is much more effective than describing the features of Visme because it allows potential customers to see the tool in action.

To top it all off, this case study utilized relevant data and figures. For example, one part of the case study said, “In Visme, where Kendra’s team has access to hundreds of templates, a brand kit, and millions of design assets at their disposal, their team can create presentations in 80% less time.”

Who wouldn't want that?

Including relevant figures and graphics in your case study is a sure way to convince your potential customers why you’re a great fit for their brand. The case study template below is a great example of integrating relevant figures and data.

This colorful template begins with a captivating headline. But that is not the best part; this template extensively showcases the results their customer had using relevant figures.

The arrangement of the results makes it fun and attractive. Instead of just putting figures in a plain table, you can find interesting shapes in your Visme editor to take your case study to the next level.

5. Lyte Reduces Customer Churn To Just 3% With Hubspot CRM

While Lyte was redefining the ticketing industry, it had no definite CRM system . Lyte utilized 12–15 different SaaS solutions across various departments, which led to a lack of alignment between teams, duplication of work and overlapping tasks.

Customer data was spread across these platforms, making it difficult to effectively track their customer journey. As a result, their churn rate increased along with customer dissatisfaction.

Through Fuelius , Lyte founded and implemented Hubspot CRM. Lyte's productivity skyrocketed after incorporating Hubspot's all-in-one CRM tool. With improved efficiency, better teamwork and stronger client relationships, sales figures soared.

The case study title page and executive summary act as compelling entry points for both existing and potential customers. This overview provides a clear understanding of the case study and also strategically incorporates key details like the client's industry, location and relevant background information.

Having a good summary of your case study can prompt your readers to engage further. You can achieve this with a simple but effective case study one-pager that highlights your customer’s problems, process and achievements, just like this case study did in the beginning.

Moreover, you can easily distribute your case study one-pager and use it as a lead magnet to draw prospective customers to your company.

Take a look at this case study one-pager template below.

This template includes key aspects of your case study, such as the introduction, key findings, conclusion and more, without overcrowding the page. The use of multiple shades of blue gives it a clean and dynamic layout.

Our favorite part of this template is where the age group is visualized.

With Visme’s data visualization tool , you can present your data in tables, graphs, progress bars, maps and so much more. All you need to do is choose your preferred data visualization widget, input or import your data and click enter!

6. How Workato Converts 75% of Their Qualified Leads

Workato wanted to improve their inbound leads and increase their conversion rate, which ranged from 40-55%.

At first, Workato searched for a simple scheduling tool. They soon discovered that they needed a tool that provided advanced routing capabilities based on zip code and other criteria. Luckily, they found and implemented Chili Piper.

As a result of implementing Chili Piper, Workato achieved a remarkable 75–80% conversion rate and improved show rates. This led to a substantial revenue boost, with a 10-15% increase in revenue attributed to Chili Piper's impact on lead conversion.

This case study example utilizes the power of video testimonials to drive the impact of their product.

Chili Piper incorporates screenshots and clips of their tool in use. This is a great strategy because it helps your viewers become familiar with how your product works, making onboarding new customers much easier.

In this case study example, we see the importance of efficient Workflow Management Systems (WMS). Without a WMS, you manually assign tasks to your team members and engage in multiple emails for regular updates on progress.

However, when crafting and designing your case study, you should prioritize having a good WMS.

Visme has an outstanding Workflow Management System feature that keeps you on top of all your projects and designs. This feature makes it much easier to assign roles, ensure accuracy across documents, and track progress and deadlines.

Visme’s WMS feature allows you to limit access to your entire document by assigning specific slides or pages to individual members of your team. At the end of the day, your team members are not overwhelmed or distracted by the whole document but can focus on their tasks.

7. Rush Order Helps Vogmask Scale-Up During a Pandemic

Vomask's reliance on third-party fulfillment companies became a challenge as demand for their masks grew. Seeking a reliable fulfillment partner, they found Rush Order and entrusted them with their entire inventory.

Vomask's partnership with Rush Order proved to be a lifesaver during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rush Order's agility, efficiency and commitment to customer satisfaction helped Vogmask navigate the unprecedented demand and maintain its reputation for quality and service.

Rush Order’s comprehensive support enabled Vogmask to scale up its order processing by a staggering 900% while maintaining a remarkable customer satisfaction rate of 92%.

Rush Order chose one event where their impact mattered the most to their customer and shared that story.

While pandemics don't happen every day, you can look through your customer’s journey and highlight a specific time or scenario where your product or service saved their business.

The story of Vogmask and Rush Order is compelling, but it simply is not enough. The case study format and design attract readers' attention and make them want to know more. Rush Order uses consistent colors throughout the case study, starting with the logo, bold square blocks, pictures, and even headers.

Take a look at this product case study template below.

Just like our example, this case study template utilizes bold colors and large squares to attract and maintain the reader’s attention. It provides enough room for you to write about your customers' backgrounds/introductions, challenges, goals and results.

The right combination of shapes and colors adds a level of professionalism to this case study template.

8. AMR Hair & Beauty leverages B2B functionality to boost sales by 200%

With limits on website customization, slow page loading and multiple website crashes during peak events, it wasn't long before AMR Hair & Beauty began looking for a new e-commerce solution.

Their existing platform lacked effective search and filtering options, a seamless checkout process and the data analytics capabilities needed for informed decision-making. This led to a significant number of abandoned carts.

Upon switching to Shopify Plus, AMR immediately saw improvements in page loading speed and average session duration. They added better search and filtering options for their wholesale customers and customized their checkout process.

Due to this, AMR witnessed a 200% increase in sales and a 77% rise in B2B average order value. AMR Hair & Beauty is now poised for further expansion and growth.

This case study example showcases the power of a concise and impactful narrative.

To make their case analysis more effective, Shopify focused on the most relevant aspects of the customer's journey. While there may have been other challenges the customer faced, they only included those that directly related to their solutions.

Take a look at this case study template below. It is perfect if you want to create a concise but effective case study. Without including unnecessary details, you can outline the challenges, solutions and results your customers experienced from using your product.

Don’t forget to include a strong CTA within your case study. By incorporating a link, sidebar pop-up or an exit pop-up into your case study, you can prompt your readers and prospective clients to connect with you.

9. How a Marketing Agency Uses Visme to Create Engaging Content With Infographics

SmartBox Dental , a marketing agency specializing in dental practices, sought ways to make dental advice more interesting and easier to read. However, they lacked the design skills to do so effectively.

Visme's wide range of templates and features made it easy for the team to create high-quality content quickly and efficiently. SmartBox Dental enjoyed creating infographics in as little as 10-15 minutes, compared to one hour before Visme was implemented.

By leveraging Visme, SmartBox Dental successfully transformed dental content into a more enjoyable and informative experience for their clients' patients. Therefore enhancing its reputation as a marketing partner that goes the extra mile to deliver value to its clients.

Visme creatively incorporates testimonials In this case study example.

By showcasing infographics and designs created by their clients, they leverage the power of social proof in a visually compelling way. This way, potential customers gain immediate insight into the creative possibilities Visme offers as a design tool.

This example effectively showcases a product's versatility and impact, and we can learn a lot about writing a case study from it. Instead of focusing on one tool or feature per customer, Visme took a more comprehensive approach.

Within each section of their case study, Visme explained how a particular tool or feature played a key role in solving the customer's challenges.

For example, this case study highlighted Visme’s collaboration tool . With Visme’s tool, the SmartBox Dental content team fostered teamwork, accountability and effective supervision.

Visme also achieved a versatile case study by including relevant quotes to showcase each tool or feature. Take a look at some examples;

Visme’s collaboration tool: “We really like the collaboration tool. Being able to see what a co-worker is working on and borrow their ideas or collaborate on a project to make sure we get the best end result really helps us out.”

Visme’s library of stock photos and animated characters: “I really love the images and the look those give to an infographic. I also really like the animated little guys and the animated pictures. That’s added a lot of fun to our designs.”

Visme’s interactivity feature: “You can add URLs and phone number links directly into the infographic so they can just click and call or go to another page on the website and I really like adding those hyperlinks in.”

You can ask your customers to talk about the different products or features that helped them achieve their business success and draw quotes from each one.

10. Jasper Grows Blog Organic Sessions 810% and Blog-Attributed User Signups 400X

Jasper, an AI writing tool, lacked a scalable content strategy to drive organic traffic and user growth. They needed help creating content that converted visitors into users. Especially when a looming domain migration threatened organic traffic.

To address these challenges, Jasper partnered with Omniscient Digital. Their goal was to turn their content into a growth channel and drive organic growth. Omniscient Digital developed a full content strategy for Jasper AI, which included a content audit, competitive analysis, and keyword discovery.

Through their collaboration, Jasper’s organic blog sessions increased by 810%, despite the domain migration. They also witnessed a 400X increase in blog-attributed signups. And more importantly, the content program contributed to over $4 million in annual recurring revenue.

The combination of storytelling and video testimonials within the case study example makes this a real winner. But there’s a twist to it. Omniscient segmented the video testimonials and placed them in different sections of the case study.

Video marketing , especially in case studies, works wonders. Research shows us that 42% of people prefer video testimonials because they show real customers with real success stories. So if you haven't thought of it before, incorporate video testimonials into your case study.

Take a look at this stunning video testimonial template. With its simple design, you can input the picture, name and quote of your customer within your case study in a fun and engaging way.

Try it yourself! Customize this template with your customer’s testimonial and add it to your case study!

11. How Meliá Became One of the Most Influential Hotel Chains on Social Media

Meliá Hotels needed help managing their growing social media customer service needs. Despite having over 500 social accounts, they lacked a unified response protocol and detailed reporting. This largely hindered efficiency and brand consistency.

Meliá partnered with Hootsuite to build an in-house social customer care team. Implementing Hootsuite's tools enabled Meliá to decrease response times from 24 hours to 12.4 hours while also leveraging smart automation.

In addition to that, Meliá resolved over 133,000 conversations, booking 330 inquiries per week through Hootsuite Inbox. They significantly improved brand consistency, response time and customer satisfaction.

The need for a good case study design cannot be over-emphasized.

As soon as anyone lands on this case study example, they are mesmerized by a beautiful case study design. This alone raises the interest of readers and keeps them engaged till the end.

If you’re currently saying to yourself, “ I can write great case studies, but I don’t have the time or skill to turn it into a beautiful document.” Say no more.

Visme’s amazing AI document generator can take your text and transform it into a stunning and professional document in minutes! Not only do you save time, but you also get inspired by the design.

With Visme’s document generator, you can create PDFs, case study presentations , infographics and more!

Take a look at this case study template below. Just like our case study example, it captures readers' attention with its beautiful design. Its dynamic blend of colors and fonts helps to segment each element of the case study beautifully.

12. Tea’s Me Cafe: Tamika Catchings is Brewing Glory

Tamika's journey began when she purchased Tea's Me Cafe in 2017, saving it from closure. She recognized the potential of the cafe as a community hub and hosted regular events centered on social issues and youth empowerment.

One of Tamika’s business goals was to automate her business. She sought to streamline business processes across various aspects of her business. One of the ways she achieves this goal is through Constant Contact.

Constant Contact became an integral part of Tamika's marketing strategy. They provided an automated and centralized platform for managing email newsletters, event registrations, social media scheduling and more.

This allowed Tamika and her team to collaborate efficiently and focus on engaging with their audience. They effectively utilized features like WooCommerce integration, text-to-join and the survey builder to grow their email list, segment their audience and gather valuable feedback.

The case study example utilizes the power of storytelling to form a connection with readers. Constant Contact takes a humble approach in this case study. They spotlight their customers' efforts as the reason for their achievements and growth, establishing trust and credibility.

This case study is also visually appealing, filled with high-quality photos of their customer. While this is a great way to foster originality, it can prove challenging if your customer sends you blurry or low-quality photos.

If you find yourself in that dilemma, you can use Visme’s AI image edit tool to touch up your photos. With Visme’s AI tool, you can remove unwanted backgrounds, erase unwanted objects, unblur low-quality pictures and upscale any photo without losing the quality.

Constant Contact offers its readers various formats to engage with their case study. Including an audio podcast and PDF.

In its PDF version, Constant Contact utilized its brand colors to create a stunning case study design.  With this, they increase brand awareness and, in turn, brand recognition with anyone who comes across their case study.

With Visme’s brand wizard tool , you can seamlessly incorporate your brand assets into any design or document you create. By inputting your URL, Visme’s AI integration will take note of your brand colors, brand fonts and more and create branded templates for you automatically.

You don't need to worry about spending hours customizing templates to fit your brand anymore. You can focus on writing amazing case studies that promote your company.

13. How Breakwater Kitchens Achieved a 7% Growth in Sales With Thryv

Breakwater Kitchens struggled with managing their business operations efficiently. They spent a lot of time on manual tasks, such as scheduling appointments and managing client communication. This made it difficult for them to grow their business and provide the best possible service to their customers.

David, the owner, discovered Thryv. With Thryv, Breakwater Kitchens was able to automate many of their manual tasks. Additionally, Thryv integrated social media management. This enabled Breakwater Kitchens to deliver a consistent brand message, captivate its audience and foster online growth.

As a result, Breakwater Kitchens achieved increased efficiency, reduced missed appointments and a 7% growth in sales.

This case study example uses a concise format and strong verbs, which make it easy for readers to absorb the information.

At the top of the case study, Thryv immediately builds trust by presenting their customer's complete profile, including their name, company details and website. This allows potential customers to verify the case study's legitimacy, making them more likely to believe in Thryv's services.

However, manually copying and pasting customer information across multiple pages of your case study can be time-consuming.

To save time and effort, you can utilize Visme's dynamic field feature . Dynamic fields automatically insert reusable information into your designs.  So you don’t have to type it out multiple times.

14. Zoom’s Creative Team Saves Over 4,000 Hours With Brandfolder

Zoom experienced rapid growth with the advent of remote work and the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such growth called for agility and resilience to scale through.

At the time, Zoom’s assets were disorganized which made retrieving brand information a burden. Zoom’s creative manager spent no less than 10 hours per week finding and retrieving brand assets for internal teams.

Zoom needed a more sustainable approach to organizing and retrieving brand information and came across Brandfolder. Brandfolder simplified and accelerated Zoom’s email localization and webpage development. It also enhanced the creation and storage of Zoom virtual backgrounds.

With Brandfolder, Zoom now saves 4,000+ hours every year. The company also centralized its assets in Brandfolder, which allowed 6,800+ employees and 20-30 vendors to quickly access them.

Brandfolder infused its case study with compelling data and backed it up with verifiable sources. This data-driven approach boosts credibility and increases the impact of their story.

Bradfolder's case study goes the extra mile by providing a downloadable PDF version, making it convenient for readers to access the information on their own time. Their dedication to crafting stunning visuals is evident in every aspect of the project.

From the vibrant colors to the seamless navigation, everything has been meticulously designed to leave a lasting impression on the viewer. And with clickable links that make exploring the content a breeze, the user experience is guaranteed to be nothing short of exceptional.

The thing is, your case study presentation won’t always sit on your website. There are instances where you may need to do a case study presentation for clients, partners or potential investors.

Visme has a rich library of templates you can tap into. But if you’re racing against the clock, Visme’s AI presentation maker is your best ally.

15. How Cents of Style Made $1.7M+ in Affiliate Sales with LeadDyno

Cents of Style had a successful affiliate and influencer marketing strategy. However, their existing affiliate marketing platform was not intuitive, customizable or transparent enough to meet the needs of their influencers.

Cents of Styles needed an easy-to-use affiliate marketing platform that gave them more freedom to customize their program and implement a multi-tier commission program.

After exploring their options, Cents of Style decided on LeadDyno.

LeadDyno provided more flexibility, allowing them to customize commission rates and implement their multi-tier commission structure, switching from monthly to weekly payouts.

Also, integrations with PayPal made payments smoother And features like newsletters and leaderboards added to the platform's success by keeping things transparent and engaging.

As a result, Cents of Style witnessed an impressive $1.7 million in revenue from affiliate sales with a substantial increase in web sales by 80%.

LeadDyno strategically placed a compelling CTA in the middle of their case study layout, maximizing its impact. At this point, readers are already invested in the customer's story and may be considering implementing similar strategies.

A well-placed CTA offers them a direct path to learn more and take action.

LeadDyno also utilized the power of quotes to strengthen their case study. They didn't just embed these quotes seamlessly into the text; instead, they emphasized each one with distinct blocks.

Are you looking for an easier and quicker solution to create a case study and other business documents? Try Visme's AI designer ! This powerful tool allows you to generate complete documents, such as case studies, reports, whitepapers and more, just by providing text prompts. Simply explain your requirements to the tool, and it will produce the document for you, complete with text, images, design assets and more.

Still have more questions about case studies? Let's look at some frequently asked questions.

How to Write a Case Study?

• Choose a compelling story: Not all case studies are created equal. Pick one that is relevant to your target audience and demonstrates the specific benefits of your product or service.
• Outline your case study: Create a case study outline and highlight how you will structure your case study to include the introduction, problem, solution and achievements of your customer.
• Choose a case study template: After you outline your case study, choose a case study template . Visme has stunning templates that can inspire your case study design.
• Craft a compelling headline: Include figures or percentages that draw attention to your case study.
• Work on the first draft: Your case study should be easy to read and understand. Use clear and concise language and avoid jargon.
• Include high-quality visual aids: Visuals can help to make your case study more engaging and easier to read. Consider adding high-quality photos, screenshots or videos.
• Include a relevant CTA: Tell prospective customers how to reach you for questions or sign-ups.

What Are the Stages of a Case Study?

The stages of a case study are;

• Planning & Preparation: Highlight your goals for writing the case study. Plan the case study format, length and audience you wish to target.
• Interview the Client: Reach out to the company you want to showcase and ask relevant questions about their journey and achievements.
• Revision & Editing: Review your case study and ask for feedback. Include relevant quotes and CTAs to your case study.
• Publication & Distribution: Publish and share your case study on your website, social media channels and email list!
• Marketing & Repurposing: Turn your case study into a podcast, PDF, case study presentation and more. Share these materials with your sales and marketing team.

What Are the Advantages and Disadvantages of a Case Study?

Advantages of a case study:

• Case studies showcase a specific solution and outcome for specific customer challenges.
• It attracts potential customers with similar challenges.
• It builds trust and credibility with potential customers.
• It provides an in-depth analysis of your company’s problem-solving process.

Disadvantages of a case study:

• Limited applicability. Case studies are tailored to specific cases and may not apply to other businesses.
• It relies heavily on customer cooperation and willingness to share information.
• It stands a risk of becoming outdated as industries and customer needs evolve.

What Are the Types of Case Studies?

There are 7 main types of case studies. They include;

• Illustrative case study.
• Instrumental case study.
• Intrinsic case study.
• Descriptive case study.
• Explanatory case study.
• Exploratory case study.
• Collective case study.

How Long Should a Case Study Be?

The ideal length of your case study is between 500 - 1500 words or 1-3 pages. Certain factors like your target audience, goal or the amount of detail you want to share may influence the length of your case study. This infographic has powerful tips for designing winning case studies

What Is the Difference Between a Case Study and an Example?

Case studies provide a detailed narrative of how your product or service was used to solve a problem. Examples are general illustrations and are not necessarily real-life scenarios.

Case studies are often used for marketing purposes, attracting potential customers and building trust. Examples, on the other hand, are primarily used to simplify or clarify complex concepts.

Where Can I Find Case Study Examples?

You can easily find many case study examples online and in industry publications. Many companies, including Visme, share case studies on their websites to showcase how their products or services have helped clients achieve success. You can also search online libraries and professional organizations for case studies related to your specific industry or field.

If you need professionally-designed, customizable case study templates to create your own, Visme's template library is one of the best places to look. These templates include all the essential sections of a case study and high-quality content to help you create case studies that position your business as an industry leader.

Get More Out Of Your Case Studies With Visme

Case studies are an essential tool for converting potential customers into paying customers. By following the tips in this article, you can create compelling case studies that will help you build trust, establish credibility and drive sales.

Visme can help you create stunning case studies and other relevant marketing materials. With our easy-to-use platform, interactive features and analytics tools , you can increase your content creation game in no time.

There is no limit to what you can achieve with Visme. Connect with Sales to discover how Visme can boost your business goals.

Easily create beautiful case studies and more with Visme

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About the Author

Case Study Research Method in Psychology

Saul Mcleod, PhD

Editor-in-Chief for Simply Psychology

BSc (Hons) Psychology, MRes, PhD, University of Manchester

Saul Mcleod, PhD., is a qualified psychology teacher with over 18 years of experience in further and higher education. He has been published in peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Clinical Psychology.

Learn about our Editorial Process

Olivia Guy-Evans, MSc

Associate Editor for Simply Psychology

BSc (Hons) Psychology, MSc Psychology of Education

Olivia Guy-Evans is a writer and associate editor for Simply Psychology. She has previously worked in healthcare and educational sectors.

On This Page:

Case studies are in-depth investigations of a person, group, event, or community. Typically, data is gathered from various sources using several methods (e.g., observations & interviews).

The case study research method originated in clinical medicine (the case history, i.e., the patient’s personal history). In psychology, case studies are often confined to the study of a particular individual.

The information is mainly biographical and relates to events in the individual’s past (i.e., retrospective), as well as to significant events that are currently occurring in his or her everyday life.

The case study is not a research method, but researchers select methods of data collection and analysis that will generate material suitable for case studies.

Freud (1909a, 1909b) conducted very detailed investigations into the private lives of his patients in an attempt to both understand and help them overcome their illnesses.

This makes it clear that the case study is a method that should only be used by a psychologist, therapist, or psychiatrist, i.e., someone with a professional qualification.

There is an ethical issue of competence. Only someone qualified to diagnose and treat a person can conduct a formal case study relating to atypical (i.e., abnormal) behavior or atypical development.

 Famous Case Studies

• Anna O – One of the most famous case studies, documenting psychoanalyst Josef Breuer’s treatment of “Anna O” (real name Bertha Pappenheim) for hysteria in the late 1800s using early psychoanalytic theory.
• Little Hans – A child psychoanalysis case study published by Sigmund Freud in 1909 analyzing his five-year-old patient Herbert Graf’s house phobia as related to the Oedipus complex.
• Bruce/Brenda – Gender identity case of the boy (Bruce) whose botched circumcision led psychologist John Money to advise gender reassignment and raise him as a girl (Brenda) in the 1960s.
• Genie Wiley – Linguistics/psychological development case of the victim of extreme isolation abuse who was studied in 1970s California for effects of early language deprivation on acquiring speech later in life.
• Phineas Gage – One of the most famous neuropsychology case studies analyzes personality changes in railroad worker Phineas Gage after an 1848 brain injury involving a tamping iron piercing his skull.

Clinical Case Studies

• Studying the effectiveness of psychotherapy approaches with an individual patient
• Assessing and treating mental illnesses like depression, anxiety disorders, PTSD
• Neuropsychological cases investigating brain injuries or disorders

Child Psychology Case Studies

• Studying psychological development from birth through adolescence
• Cases of learning disabilities, autism spectrum disorders, ADHD
• Effects of trauma, abuse, deprivation on development

Types of Case Studies

• Explanatory case studies : Used to explore causation in order to find underlying principles. Helpful for doing qualitative analysis to explain presumed causal links.
• Exploratory case studies : Used to explore situations where an intervention being evaluated has no clear set of outcomes. It helps define questions and hypotheses for future research.
• Descriptive case studies : Describe an intervention or phenomenon and the real-life context in which it occurred. It is helpful for illustrating certain topics within an evaluation.
• Multiple-case studies : Used to explore differences between cases and replicate findings across cases. Helpful for comparing and contrasting specific cases.
• Intrinsic : Used to gain a better understanding of a particular case. Helpful for capturing the complexity of a single case.
• Collective : Used to explore a general phenomenon using multiple case studies. Helpful for jointly studying a group of cases in order to inquire into the phenomenon.

Where Do You Find Data for a Case Study?

There are several places to find data for a case study. The key is to gather data from multiple sources to get a complete picture of the case and corroborate facts or findings through triangulation of evidence. Most of this information is likely qualitative (i.e., verbal description rather than measurement), but the psychologist might also collect numerical data.

1. Primary sources

• Interviews – Interviewing key people related to the case to get their perspectives and insights. The interview is an extremely effective procedure for obtaining information about an individual, and it may be used to collect comments from the person’s friends, parents, employer, workmates, and others who have a good knowledge of the person, as well as to obtain facts from the person him or herself.
• Observations – Observing behaviors, interactions, processes, etc., related to the case as they unfold in real-time.
• Documents & Records – Reviewing private documents, diaries, public records, correspondence, meeting minutes, etc., relevant to the case.

2. Secondary sources

• News/Media – News coverage of events related to the case study.
• Academic articles – Journal articles, dissertations etc. that discuss the case.
• Government reports – Official data and records related to the case context.
• Books/films – Books, documentaries or films discussing the case.

3. Archival records

Searching historical archives, museum collections and databases to find relevant documents, visual/audio records related to the case history and context.

Public archives like newspapers, organizational records, photographic collections could all include potentially relevant pieces of information to shed light on attitudes, cultural perspectives, common practices and historical contexts related to psychology.

4. Organizational records

Organizational records offer the advantage of often having large datasets collected over time that can reveal or confirm psychological insights.

Of course, privacy and ethical concerns regarding confidential data must be navigated carefully.

However, with proper protocols, organizational records can provide invaluable context and empirical depth to qualitative case studies exploring the intersection of psychology and organizations.

• Organizational/industrial psychology research : Organizational records like employee surveys, turnover/retention data, policies, incident reports etc. may provide insight into topics like job satisfaction, workplace culture and dynamics, leadership issues, employee behaviors etc.
• Clinical psychology : Therapists/hospitals may grant access to anonymized medical records to study aspects like assessments, diagnoses, treatment plans etc. This could shed light on clinical practices.
• School psychology : Studies could utilize anonymized student records like test scores, grades, disciplinary issues, and counseling referrals to study child development, learning barriers, effectiveness of support programs, and more.

How do I Write a Case Study in Psychology?

Follow specified case study guidelines provided by a journal or your psychology tutor. General components of clinical case studies include: background, symptoms, assessments, diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes. Interpreting the information means the researcher decides what to include or leave out. A good case study should always clarify which information is the factual description and which is an inference or the researcher’s opinion.

1. Introduction

• Provide background on the case context and why it is of interest, presenting background information like demographics, relevant history, and presenting problem.
• Compare briefly to similar published cases if applicable. Clearly state the focus/importance of the case.

2. Case Presentation

• Describe the presenting problem in detail, including symptoms, duration,and impact on daily life.
• Include client demographics like age and gender, information about social relationships, and mental health history.
• Describe all physical, emotional, and/or sensory symptoms reported by the client.
• Use patient quotes to describe the initial complaint verbatim. Follow with full-sentence summaries of relevant history details gathered, including key components that led to a working diagnosis.
• Summarize clinical exam results, namely orthopedic/neurological tests, imaging, lab tests, etc. Note actual results rather than subjective conclusions. Provide images if clearly reproducible/anonymized.
• Clearly state the working diagnosis or clinical impression before transitioning to management.

3. Management and Outcome

• Indicate the total duration of care and number of treatments given over what timeframe. Use specific names/descriptions for any therapies/interventions applied.
• Present the results of the intervention,including any quantitative or qualitative data collected.
• For outcomes, utilize visual analog scales for pain, medication usage logs, etc., if possible. Include patient self-reports of improvement/worsening of symptoms. Note the reason for discharge/end of care.

4. Discussion

• Analyze the case, exploring contributing factors, limitations of the study, and connections to existing research.
• Analyze the effectiveness of the intervention,considering factors like participant adherence, limitations of the study, and potential alternative explanations for the results.
• Identify any questions raised in the case analysis and relate insights to established theories and current research if applicable. Avoid definitive claims about physiological explanations.
• Offer clinical implications, and suggest future research directions.

5. Additional Items

• Thank specific assistants for writing support only. No patient acknowledgments.
• References should directly support any key claims or quotes included.
• Use tables/figures/images only if substantially informative. Include permissions and legends/explanatory notes.
• Provides detailed (rich qualitative) information.
• Provides insight for further research.
• Permitting investigation of otherwise impractical (or unethical) situations.

Case studies allow a researcher to investigate a topic in far more detail than might be possible if they were trying to deal with a large number of research participants (nomothetic approach) with the aim of ‘averaging’.

Because of their in-depth, multi-sided approach, case studies often shed light on aspects of human thinking and behavior that would be unethical or impractical to study in other ways.

Research that only looks into the measurable aspects of human behavior is not likely to give us insights into the subjective dimension of experience, which is important to psychoanalytic and humanistic psychologists.

Case studies are often used in exploratory research. They can help us generate new ideas (that might be tested by other methods). They are an important way of illustrating theories and can help show how different aspects of a person’s life are related to each other.

The method is, therefore, important for psychologists who adopt a holistic point of view (i.e., humanistic psychologists ).

Limitations

• Lacking scientific rigor and providing little basis for generalization of results to the wider population.
• Researchers’ own subjective feelings may influence the case study (researcher bias).
• Difficult to replicate.
• Time-consuming and expensive.
• The volume of data, together with the time restrictions in place, impacted the depth of analysis that was possible within the available resources.

Because a case study deals with only one person/event/group, we can never be sure if the case study investigated is representative of the wider body of “similar” instances. This means the conclusions drawn from a particular case may not be transferable to other settings.

Because case studies are based on the analysis of qualitative (i.e., descriptive) data , a lot depends on the psychologist’s interpretation of the information she has acquired.

This means that there is a lot of scope for Anna O , and it could be that the subjective opinions of the psychologist intrude in the assessment of what the data means.

For example, Freud has been criticized for producing case studies in which the information was sometimes distorted to fit particular behavioral theories (e.g., Little Hans ).

This is also true of Money’s interpretation of the Bruce/Brenda case study (Diamond, 1997) when he ignored evidence that went against his theory.

Breuer, J., & Freud, S. (1895).  Studies on hysteria . Standard Edition 2: London.

Curtiss, S. (1981). Genie: The case of a modern wild child .

Diamond, M., & Sigmundson, K. (1997). Sex Reassignment at Birth: Long-term Review and Clinical Implications. Archives of Pediatrics & Adolescent Medicine , 151(3), 298-304

Freud, S. (1909a). Analysis of a phobia of a five year old boy. In The Pelican Freud Library (1977), Vol 8, Case Histories 1, pages 169-306

Freud, S. (1909b). Bemerkungen über einen Fall von Zwangsneurose (Der “Rattenmann”). Jb. psychoanal. psychopathol. Forsch ., I, p. 357-421; GW, VII, p. 379-463; Notes upon a case of obsessional neurosis, SE , 10: 151-318.

Harlow J. M. (1848). Passage of an iron rod through the head.  Boston Medical and Surgical Journal, 39 , 389–393.

Harlow, J. M. (1868).  Recovery from the Passage of an Iron Bar through the Head .  Publications of the Massachusetts Medical Society. 2  (3), 327-347.

Money, J., & Ehrhardt, A. A. (1972).  Man & Woman, Boy & Girl : The Differentiation and Dimorphism of Gender Identity from Conception to Maturity. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Money, J., & Tucker, P. (1975). Sexual signatures: On being a man or a woman.

Further Information

• Case Study Approach
• Case Study Method
• Enhancing the Quality of Case Studies in Health Services Research
• “We do things together” A case study of “couplehood” in dementia
• Using mixed methods for evaluating an integrative approach to cancer care: a case study

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What Is a Focus Group?

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Criterion Validity: Definition & Examples

Strategy Execution for Public Leadership

Implement a public leadership approach for long-term success..

Join Harvard Kennedy School faculty and former Pentagon Chief of Staff Eric Rosenbach to learn how to develop strategies for public leadership success.

What You'll Learn

How do you execute a strategic initiative that has a long-lasting impact? Do you know how to effectively communicate your strategic approach, gathering input and support from key stakeholders? How will you anticipate and respond to scrutiny from shareholders, news media, and the public?

Leaders in government, non-profit, and education organizations face unique challenges when it comes to making strategic, business-oriented decisions. If not thoroughly planned and executed, these decisions have real consequences with high-stakes outcomes. What can we learn from world leaders and experts who have faced these monumental decisions? How can you build a high performing team to successfully execute strategic ideas?

In Strategy Execution for Public Leadership, former United States Pentagon Chief of Staff and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Global Security Eric Rosenbach will lead you through real-life public sector challenges, showing you how a purpose-driven strategy execution framework can lead to long-term adoption and success.

This government and nonprofit leadership training online course offers the opportunity to study decisions of key public leaders, like Former United States Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, so you can better understand how to develop strategies that not only align with your organizational goals, but also gain insight into the challenges and scrutiny that come along with making public decisions. Too often, public strategies fail because leaders don’t think about execution, which is made up of leadership and management tools, as well as a team who anticipates all scenarios prior to putting your plan into place. 

Through global case studies and protagonist examples, you will explore topics that set you on a path to strengthen your public leadership skills, including leadership and team development, resource and budget planning, talent recruitment and retention, strategic communications and crisis management, and risk planning and mitigation tactics.

By the end of this leadership development course, you will not only have the tools to create a sound public strategy, but also know how to test and optimize your strategy, increase competitive advantage, and sustain long-term impact and success.

Strategy is not one-size-fits-all. Implement a public leadership approach for long-term success.

The course will be delivered via  HBS Online’s course platform  and immerse learners in real-world examples from experts at industry-leading organizations. By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

• Enhance your strategic thinking by understanding the core elements of public leadership, management, strategy, and execution
• Develop the skills to institute strategic models that align with your goals and your stakeholders
• Prepare to lead your organization to long-term success through a shared understanding of strategic direction
• Create a culture of consistency, both internally and externally, that considers core objectives, resources, and environmental factors  
• Know how to approach strategy both effectively and efficiently, incorporating feedback cycles and creating public value
• Identify weaknesses and risks, developing the skills and planning to respond in a crisis
• Develop strategic communications to effectively roll out new initiatives and anticipate shareholder and media feedback

Your Instructor

Eric Rosenbach is a Senior Lecturer in Public Policy and is the Director of the Defense, Emerging Technology, and Strategy Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Rosenbach teaches graduate courses in policy development, strategy execution, and national security.  As Pentagon Chief of Staff from 2015–2017, Rosenbach led and managed the execution of dozens of high-profile strategic initiatives for the largest public sector organization in the world.  As Assistant Secretary of Defense, Rosenbach was responsible for developing and executing the strategy for all aspects of the Department’s cyber activities and other key areas of defense policy. In the private sector, he led the cybersecurity practice of a global management consulting firm, advising the executives of Fortune 500 companies on strategic risk mitigation strategies.

Real World Case Studies

Affiliations are listed for identification purposes only.

Leadership is a valuable skill that can be cultivated and strengthened.  Hear from the Executive Director of The American Civil Liberties Union of Texas to discover what it takes to become an effective leader at any level.

Communication errors are often cited as the primary reason that initiatives fail. Learn the best strategies for effective communications and media relations from a former United States Secretary of Defense.

Juliette Kayyem

Risk prevention and mitigation is everyone’s responsibility. Explore how to assess and mitigate risks by learning about international events, including the Ebola Endemic, BP Oil Spill, and more.

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Experience Harvard Online by utilizing our wide variety of discount programs for individuals and groups. 

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Learners who have enrolled in at least one qualifying Harvard Online program hosted on the HBS Online platform are eligible to receive a 30% discount on this course, regardless of completion or certificate status in the first purchased program. Past Participant Discounts are automatically applied to the Program Fee upon time of payment.  Learn more here .

Learners who have earned a verified certificate for a HarvardX course hosted on the  edX platform  are eligible to receive a 30% discount on this course using a discount code. Discounts are not available after you've submitted payment, so if you think you are eligible for a discount on a registration, please check your email for a code or contact us .

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For this course we offer a 30% discount for learners who work in the nonprofit, government, military, or education fields. 

Eligibility is determined by a prospective learner’s email address, ending in .org, .gov, .mil, or .edu. Interested learners can apply below for the discount and, if eligible, will receive a promo code to enter when completing payment information to enroll in a Harvard Online program. Click here to apply for these discounts.

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• Tiered discounts and pricing available with up to 50% off
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Learn more and enroll your team ! 

Who Will Benefit

Public Sector Leaders

Local, state, and national government leaders will benefit by better understanding the core principles of public sector strategy formulation and execution.

Government Administrators

Military, defense, local, state, and federal officials, learn the the business fundamentals of strategy, including competitive analysis, stakeholder identification, and feedback.

Rising Managers

Focused on rising leaders who will benefit from understanding how public sector strategy and execution serves a unique purpose, and can serve as the eyes and ears on the ground to enhance adoption and strategy optimization.

Learner Experience

“My goal for taking the course was to better understand public program decision making. The course was thoughtfully developed and gave me the opportunity to better understand the public leadership perspective. I would recommend this course to individuals wanting a career in public leadership.”

Rob Arnold Executive Director Health Commons Project

Syllabus and Upcoming Calendars

This public leadership training course will help executives, managers, and rising managers in the nonprofit, government, and education sectors develop and implement actionable plans and strategies that will have a lasting impact on their organizations and communities they serve. 

Online Course requirements: There are no prerequisites needed to take this online course. In order to earn a Certificate of Completion from Harvard Online, participants must thoughtfully complete all 8 modules, including satisfactory completion of the associated quizzes, by stated deadlines.

Download Full Syllabus

Download November 2023 Calendar

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• Prepare for this strategy execution training course for public sector leaders and rising leaders
• Understand why strategy execution is important in the public sector
• Overview of the course
• Study a case on Women in the U.S. Military
• Formulate an effective strategy to tackle any problem or opportunity and achieve your intended goals
• Learn how to use environmental scan tools like SWOT and PESTEL
• Study a case on the German Refugee Crisis
• Plan and manage your initiative’s operations to increase performance and productivity
• Learn to generate an activity list using a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
• Study a case on healthcare.gov
• Assess and use financial and technological tools to responsibly manage resources and maintain public trust
• Practice generating cost estimate, calculating burn rates, and comparing waterfall and agile methodologies
• Study a case on Equitable Transportation for Houston
• Learn how to strengthen your leadership skills by understanding the styles and traits of an effective leader
• Identify leadership styles and reflect on your own
• Revisit the case study on Women in the U.S. Military
• Communicate your ideas purposefully and persuasively to garner necessary support and commitment
• Learn communications strategies that align with your audience and purpose and compare the uses and roles of different communication channels
• Study the case on the Ebola Endemic in Liberia
• Assess risks and craft ways to mitigate them so that they do not derail your efforts
• Assess risks using an Impact-Probability Matrix
• Learn to match mitigation strategies to risks to create a contingency plan
• Evaluate your initiative to understand your level of impact and how to improve in the future
• Identify key aspects of the Logical Framework planning tool and learn to compare the Logical Framework planning tool to a Performance Management Plan

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Enroll today in Harvard Online's Strategy Execution for Public Leadership course.

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Assessment of Various Factors Affecting Economic Indicators in Prosumer and Consumer Energy Communities: A Case Study of Latvia

• Lazdins, R.

This study explores the recent legislative changes allowing prosumers and consumers in Latvia to form energy communities (EnCs). In spite of legal advancements, the absence of supporting regulations and potential barriers, such as the lack of tailored support schemes and forecasting tools, pose challenges. International experiences highlight additional hurdles, including weak stakeholder dialogue and limited EnC modelling tools. To address these issues, the study proposes a prosumer and consumer EnC business model aligned with Latvia's legislation, emphasising a peer-to-peer (P2P) trading approach. The model incorporates state aid, electricity trader responsibilities, and reinvestment of EnC profits, eliminating the need for a dedicated trading platform. The study introduces a user-friendly planning tool in MS Excel, evaluating economic viability through case studies and scenarios. Findings emphasise the optimisation of EnC effectiveness by adjusting tariffs, minimising initial investment costs, securing external funding, and managing loan durations. The planning tool serves as a universal instrument, offering insights into individual EnC economic indicators based on their unique characteristics. The research provides valuable guidance to stakeholders and policymakers in Latvia's evolving energy landscape.

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Net Zero by 2050

A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector

This report is part of Net Zero Emissions

About this report

The number of countries announcing pledges to achieve net zero emissions over the coming decades continues to grow. But the pledges by governments to date – even if fully achieved – fall well short of what is required to bring global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050 and give the world an even chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. This special report is the world’s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth. It sets out a cost-effective and economically productive pathway, resulting in a clean, dynamic and resilient energy economy dominated by renewables like solar and wind instead of fossil fuels. The report also examines key uncertainties, such as the roles of bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes in reaching net zero.

Summary for policy makers

Reaching net zero emissions globally by 2050 is a critical and formidable goal.

The energy sector is the source of around three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions today and holds the key to averting the worst effects of climate change, perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has faced. Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to net zero by 2050 is consistent with efforts to limit the long-term increase in average global temperatures to 1.5˚C. This calls for nothing less than a complete transformation of how we produce, transport and consume energy. The growing political consensus on reaching net zero is cause for considerable optimism about the progress the world can make, but the changes required to reach net zero emissions globally by 2050 are poorly understood. A huge amount of work is needed to turn today’s impressive ambitions into reality, especially given the range of different situations among countries and their differing capacities to make the necessary changes. This special IEA report sets out a pathway for achieving this goal, resulting in a clean and resilient energy system that would bring major benefits for human prosperity and well-being.

The global pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 detailed in this report requires all governments to significantly strengthen and then successfully implement their energy and climate policies. Commitments made to date fall far short of what is required by that pathway. The number of countries that have pledged to achieve net zero emissions has grown rapidly over the last year and now covers around 70% of global emissions of CO 2 . This is a huge step forward. However, most pledges are not yet underpinned by near-term policies and measures. Moreover, even if successfully fulfilled, the pledges to date would still leave around 22 billion tonnes of CO 2 emissions worldwide in 2050. The continuation of that trend would be consistent with a temperature rise in 2100 of around 2.1 °C. Global emissions fell in 2020 because of the Covid-19 crisis but are already rebounding strongly as economies recover. Further delay in acting to reverse that trend will put net zero by 2050 out of reach.

In this Summary for Policy Makers, we outline the essential conditions for the global energy sector to reach net zero CO 2 emissions by 2050. The pathway described in depth in this report achieves this objective with no offsets from outside the energy sector, and with low reliance on negative emissions technologies. It is designed to maximise technical feasibility, cost-effectiveness and social acceptance while ensuring continued economic growth and secure energy supplies. We highlight the priority actions that are needed today to ensure the opportunity of net zero by 2050 – narrow but still achievable – is not lost. The report provides a global view, but countries do not start in the same place or finish at the same time: advanced economies have to reach net zero before emerging markets and developing economies, and assist others in getting there. We also recognise that the route mapped out here is a path, not necessarily the path, and so we examine some key uncertainties, notably concerning the roles played by bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes. Getting to net zero will involve countless decisions by people across the world, but our primary aim is to inform the decisions made by policy makers, who have the greatest scope to move the world closer to its climate goals.

Net zero by 2050 hinges on an unprecedented clean technology push to 2030

The path to net zero emissions is narrow: staying on it requires immediate and massive deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies. In the net zero emissions pathway presented in this report, the world economy in 2030 is some 40% larger than today but uses 7% less energy. A major worldwide push to increase energy efficiency is an essential part of these efforts, resulting in the annual rate of energy intensity improvements averaging 4% to 2030 – about three-times the average rate achieved over the last two decades. Emissions reductions from the energy sector are not limited to CO 2 : in our pathway, methane emissions from fossil fuel supply fall by 75% over the next ten years as a result of a global, concerted effort to deploy all available abatement measures and technologies.

Ever-cheaper renewable energy technologies give electricity the edge in the race to zero. Our pathway calls for scaling up solar and wind rapidly this decade, reaching annual additions of 630 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaics (PV) and 390 GW of wind by 2030, four-times the record levels set in 2020. For solar PV, this is equivalent to installing the world’s current largest solar park roughly every day. Hydropower and nuclear, the two largest sources of low-carbon electricity today, provide an essential foundation for transitions. As the electricity sector becomes cleaner, electrification emerges as a crucial economy-wide tool for reducing emissions. Electric vehicles (EVs) go from around 5% of global car sales to more than 60% by 2030.  

Priority action: Make the 2020s the decade of massive clean energy expansion

All the technologies needed to achieve the necessary deep cuts in global emissions by 2030 already exist, and the policies that can drive their deployment are already proven.

As the world continues to grapple with the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is essential that the resulting wave of investment and spending to support economic recovery is aligned with the net zero pathway. Policies should be strengthened to speed the deployment of clean and efficient energy technologies. Mandates and standards are vital to drive consumer spending and industry investment into the most efficient technologies. Targets and competitive auctions can enable wind and solar to accelerate the electricity sector transition. Fossil fuel subsidy phase-outs, carbon pricing and other market reforms can ensure appropriate price signals. Policies should limit or provide disincentives for the use of certain fuels and technologies, such as unabated coal-fired power stations, gas boilers and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Governments must lead the planning and incentivising of the massive infrastructure investment, including in smart transmission and distribution grids.

Electric car sales in the net zero pathway, 2020-2030

Capacity additions of solar pv and wind in the net zero pathway, 2020-2030, energy intensity of gdp in the net zero pathway, 2020-2030, net zero by 2050 requires huge leaps in clean energy innovation.

Reaching net zero by 2050 requires further rapid deployment of available technologies as well as widespread use of technologies that are not on the market yet. Major innovation efforts must occur over this decade in order to bring these new technologies to market in time. Most of the global reductions in CO 2 emissions through 2030 in our pathway come from technologies readily available today. But in 2050, almost half the reductions come from technologies that are currently at the demonstration or prototype phase. In heavy industry and long-distance transport, the share of emissions reductions from technologies that are still under development today is even higher.

The biggest innovation opportunities concern advanced batteries, hydrogen electrolysers, and direct air capture and storage. Together, these three technology areas make vital contributions the reductions in CO 2 emissions between 2030 and 2050 in our pathway. Innovation over the next ten years – not only through research and development (R&D) and demonstration but also through deployment – needs to be accompanied by the large-scale construction of the infrastructure the technologies will need. This includes new pipelines to transport captured CO 2 emissions and systems to move hydrogen around and between ports and industrial zones.

Priority action: Prepare for the next phase of the transition by boosting innovation

Clean energy innovation must accelerate rapidly, with governments putting R&D, demonstration and deployment at the core of energy and climate policy.

Government R&D spending needs to be increased and reprioritised. Critical areas such as electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) today receive only around one-third of the level of public R&D funding of the more established low-carbon electricity generation and energy efficiency technologies. Support is also needed to accelerate the roll-out of demonstration projects, to leverage private investment in R&D, and to boost overall deployment levels to help reduce costs. Around USD 90 billion of public money needs to be mobilised globally as soon as possible to complete a portfolio of demonstration projects before 2030. Currently, only roughly USD 25 billion is budgeted for that period. Developing and deploying these technologies would create major new industries, as well as commercial and employment opportunities.

Annual CO2 emissions savings in the net zero pathway, 2030 and 2050, relative to 2020

The transition to net zero is for and about people.

A transition of the scale and speed described by the net zero pathway cannot be achieved without sustained support and participation from citizens. The changes will affect multiple aspects of people’s lives – from transport, heating and cooking to urban planning and jobs. We estimate that around 55% of the cumulative emissions reductions in the pathway are linked to consumer choices such as purchasing an EV, retrofitting a house with energy-efficient technologies or installing a heat pump. Behavioural changes, particularly in advanced economies – such as replacing car trips with walking, cycling or public transport, or foregoing a long-haul flight – also provide around 4% of the cumulative emissions reductions.

Providing electricity to around 785 million people that have no access and clean cooking solutions to 2.6 billion people that lack those options is an integral part of our pathway. Emissions reductions have to go hand-in-hand with efforts to ensure energy access for all by 2030. This costs around USD 40 billion a year, equal to around 1% of average annual energy sector investment, while also bringing major co-benefits from reduced indoor air pollution.

Some of the changes brought by the clean energy transformation may be challenging to implement, so decisions must be transparent, just and cost-effective. Governments need to ensure that clean energy transitions are people-centred and inclusive. Household energy expenditure as a share of disposable income – including purchases of efficient appliances and fuel bills – rises modestly in emerging market and developing economies in our net zero pathway as more people gain access to energy and demand for modern energy services increases rapidly. Ensuring the affordability of energy for households demands close attention: policy tools that can direct support to the poorest include tax credits, loans and targeted subsidies.

Priority action: Clean energy jobs will grow strongly but must be spread widely

Energy transitions have to take account of the social and economic impacts on individuals and communities, and treat people as active participants.

The transition to net zero brings substantial new opportunities for employment, with 14 million jobs created by 2030 in our pathway thanks to new activities and investment in clean energy. Spending on more efficient appliances, electric and fuel cell vehicles, and building retrofits and energy-efficient construction would require a further 16 million workers. But these opportunities are often in different locations, skill sets and sectors than the jobs that will be lost as fossil fuels decline. In our pathway, around 5 million jobs are lost. Most of those jobs are located close to fossil fuel resources, and many are well paid, meaning structural changes can cause shocks for communities with impacts that persist over time. This requires careful policy attention to address the employment losses. It will be vital to minimise hardships associated with these disruptions, such as by retraining workers, locating new clean energy facilities in heavily affected areas wherever possible, and providing regional aid.

Global employment in energy supply in the Net Zero Scenario, 2019-2030

An energy sector dominated by renewables.

In the net zero pathway, global energy demand in 2050 is around 8% smaller than today, but it serves an economy more than twice as big and a population with 2 billion more people. More efficient use of energy, resource efficiency and behavioural changes combine to offset increases in demand for energy services as the world economy grows and access to energy is extended to all.

Instead of fossil fuels, the energy sector is based largely on renewable energy. Two-thirds of total energy supply in 2050 is from wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and hydro energy. Solar becomes the largest source, accounting for one-fifth of energy supplies. Solar PV capacity increases 20-fold between now and 2050, and wind power 11-fold.

Net zero means a huge decline in the use of fossil fuels. They fall from almost four-fifths of total energy supply today to slightly over one-fifth by 2050. Fossil fuels that remain in 2050 are used in goods where the carbon is embodied in the product such as plastics, in facilities fitted with CCUS, and in sectors where low-emissions technology options are scarce.

Electricity accounts for almost 50% of total energy consumption in 2050. It plays a key role across all sectors – from transport and buildings to industry – and is essential to produce low-emissions fuels such as hydrogen. To achieve this, total electricity generation increases over two-and-a-half-times between today and 2050. At the same time, no additional new final investment decisions should be taken for new unabated coal plants, the least efficient coal plants are phased out by 2030, and the remaining coal plants still in use by 2040 are retrofitted. By 2050, almost 90% of electricity generation comes from renewable sources, with wind and solar PV together accounting for nearly 70%. Most of the remainder comes from nuclear.    

Emissions from industry, transport and buildings take longer to reduce. Cutting industry emissions by 95% by 2050 involves major efforts to build new infrastructure. After rapid innovation progress through R&D, demonstration and initial deployment between now and 2030 to bring new clean technologies to market, the world then has to put them into action. Every month from 2030 onwards, ten heavy industrial plants are equipped with CCUS, three new hydrogen-based industrial plants are built, and 2 GW of electrolyser capacity are added at industrial sites. Policies that end sales of new internal combustion engine cars by 2035 and boost electrification underpin the massive reduction in transport emissions. In 2050, cars on the road worldwide run on electricity or fuel cells. Low-emissions fuels are essential where energy needs cannot easily or economically be met by electricity. For example, aviation relies largely on biofuels and synthetic fuels, and ammonia is vital for shipping. In buildings, bans on new fossil fuel boilers need to start being introduced globally in 2025, driving up sales of electric heat pumps. Most old buildings and all new ones comply with zero-carbon-ready building energy codes. 1

Priority action: Set near-term milestones to get on track for long-term targets

Governments need to provide credible step-by-step plans to reach their net zero goals, building confidence among investors, industry, citizens and other countries.

Governments must put in place long-term policy frameworks to allow all branches of government and stakeholders to plan for change and facilitate an orderly transition. Long-term national low-emissions strategies, called for by the Paris Agreement, can set out a vision for national transitions, as this report has done on a global level. These long-term objectives need to be linked to measurable short-term targets and policies. Our pathway details more than 400 sectoral and technology milestones to guide the global journey to net zero by 2050.  

There is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply in our net zero pathway

Beyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development in our pathway, and no new coal mines or mine extensions are required. The unwavering policy focus on climate change in the net zero pathway results in a sharp decline in fossil fuel demand, meaning that the focus for oil and gas producers switches entirely to output – and emissions reductions – from the operation of existing assets. Unabated coal demand declines by 98% to just less than 1% of total energy use in 2050. Gas demand declines by 55% to 1 750 billion cubic metres and oil declines by 75% to 24 million barrels per day (mb/d), from around 90 mb/d in 2020.

Clean electricity generation, network infrastructure and end-use sectors are key areas for increased investment. Enabling infrastructure and technologies are vital for transforming the energy system. Annual investment in transmission and distribution grids expands from USD 260 billion today to USD 820 billion in 2030. The number of public charging points for EVs rises from around 1 million today to 40 million in 2030, requiring annual investment of almost USD 90 billion in 2030. Annual battery production for EVs leaps from 160 gigawatt-hours (GWh) today to 6 600 GWh in 2030 – the equivalent of adding almost 20 gigafactories 2  each year for the next ten years. And the required roll-out of hydrogen and CCUS after 2030 means laying the groundwork now: annual investment in CO 2 pipelines and hydrogen-enabling infrastructure increases from USD 1 billion today to around USD 40 billion in 2030.

Priority action: Drive a historic surge in clean energy investment

Policies need to be designed to send market signals that unlock new business models and mobilise private spending, especially in emerging economies.

Accelerated delivery of international public finance will be critical to energy transitions, especially in developing economies, but ultimately the private sector will need to finance most of the extra investment required. Mobilising the capital for large-scale infrastructure calls for closer co operation between developers, investors, public financial institutions and governments. Reducing risks for investors will be essential to ensure successful and affordable clean energy transitions. Many emerging market and developing economies, which rely mainly on public funding for new energy projects and industrial facilities, will need to reform their policy and regulatory frameworks to attract more private finance. International flows of long-term capital to these economies will be needed to support the development of both existing and emerging clean energy technologies.

Clean energy investment in the net zero pathway, 2016-2050

An unparalleled clean energy investment boom lifts global economic growth.

Total annual energy investment surges to USD 5 trillion by 2030, adding an extra 0.4 percentage point a year to annual global GDP growth, based on our joint analysis with the International Monetary Fund. This unparalleled increase – with investment in clean energy and energy infrastructure more than tripling already by 2030 – brings significant economic benefits as the world emerges from the Covid-19 crisis. The jump in private and government spending creates millions of jobs in clean energy, including energy efficiency, as well as in the engineering, manufacturing and construction industries. All of this puts global GDP 4% higher in 2030 than it would be based on current trends.

Governments have a key role in enabling investment-led growth and ensuring that the benefits are shared by all. There are large differences in macroeconomic impacts between regions. But government investment and public policies are essential to attract large amounts of private capital and to help offset the declines in fossil fuel income that many countries will experience. The major innovation efforts needed to bring new clean energy technologies to market could boost productivity and create entirely new industries, providing opportunities to locate them in areas that see job losses in incumbent industries. Improvements in air quality provide major health benefits, with 2 million fewer premature deaths globally from air pollution in 2030 than today in our net zero pathway. Achieving universal energy access by 2030 would provide a major boost to well-being and productivity in developing economies.

New energy security concerns emerge, and old ones remain

The contraction of oil and natural gas production will have far-reaching implications for all the countries and companies that produce these fuels. No new oil and natural gas fields are needed in our pathway, and oil and natural gas supplies become increasingly concentrated in a small number of low-cost producers. For oil, the OPEC share of a much-reduced global oil supply increases from around 37% in recent years to 52% in 2050, a level higher than at any point in the history of oil markets. Yet annual per capita income from oil and natural gas in producer economies falls by about 75%, from USD 1 800 in recent years to USD 450 by the 2030s, which could have knock-on societal effects. Structural reforms and new sources of revenue are needed, even though these are unlikely to compensate fully for the drop in oil and gas income. While traditional supply activities decline, the expertise of the oil and natural gas industry fits well with technologies such as hydrogen, CCUS and offshore wind that are needed to tackle emissions in sectors where reductions are likely to be most challenging.

The energy transition requires substantial quantities of critical minerals, and their supply emerges as a significant growth area. The total market size of critical minerals like copper, cobalt, manganese and various rare earth metals grows almost sevenfold between 2020 and 2030 in the net zero pathway. Revenues from those minerals are larger than revenues from coal well before 2030. This creates substantial new opportunities for mining companies. It also creates new energy security concerns, including price volatility and additional costs for transitions, if supply cannot keep up with burgeoning demand.

The rapid electrification of all sectors makes electricity even more central to energy security around the world than it is today. Electricity system flexibility – needed to balance wind and solar with evolving demand patterns – quadruples by 2050 even as retirements of fossil fuel capacity reduce conventional sources of flexibility. The transition calls for major increases in all sources of flexibility: batteries, demand response and low-carbon flexible power plants, supported by smarter and more digital electricity networks. The resilience of electricity systems to cyberattacks and other emerging threats needs to be enhanced.

Priority action: Address emerging energy security risks now

Ensuring uninterrupted and reliable supplies of energy and critical energy-related commodities at affordable prices will only rise in importance on the way to net zero.

The focus of energy security will evolve as reliance on renewable electricity grows and the role of oil and gas diminishes. Potential vulnerabilities from the increasing importance of electricity include the variability of supply and cybersecurity risks. Governments need to create markets for investment in batteries, digital solutions and electricity grids that reward flexibility and enable adequate and reliable supplies of electricity. The growing dependence on critical minerals required for key clean energy technologies calls for new international mechanisms to ensure both the timely availability of supplies and sustainable production. At the same time, traditional energy security concerns will not disappear, as oil production will become more concentrated.

Critical minerals demand in the net zero pathway, 2020-2050

Oil supply in the net zero pathway, 2020-2050, international co-operation is pivotal for achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

Making net zero emissions a reality hinges on a singular, unwavering focus from all governments – working together with one another, and with businesses, investors and citizens. All stakeholders need to play their part. The wide-ranging measures adopted by governments at all levels in the net zero pathway help to frame, influence and incentivise the purchase by consumers and investment by businesses. This includes how energy companies invest in new ways of producing and supplying energy services, how businesses invest in equipment, and how consumers cool and heat their homes, power their devices and travel.

Underpinning all these changes are policy decisions made by governments. Devising cost-effective national and regional net zero roadmaps demands co-operation among all parts of government that breaks down silos and integrates energy into every country’s policy making on finance, labour, taxation, transport and industry. Energy or environment ministries alone cannot carry out the policy actions needed to reach net zero by 2050.

Changes in energy consumption result in a significant decline in fossil fuel tax revenues. In many countries today, taxes on diesel, gasoline and other fossil fuel consumption are an important source of public revenues, providing as much as 10% in some cases. In the net zero pathway, tax revenue from oil and gas retail sales falls by about 40% between 2020 and 2030. Managing this decline will require long-term fiscal planning and budget reforms.

The net zero pathway relies on unprecedented international co-operation among governments, especially on innovation and investment. The IEA stands ready to support governments in preparing national and regional net zero roadmaps, to provide guidance and assistance in implementing them, and to promote international co-operation to accelerate the energy transition worldwide. 

Priority action: Take international co-operation to new heights

This is not simply a matter of all governments seeking to bring their national emissions to net zero – it means tackling global challenges through co-ordinated actions.

Governments must work together in an effective and mutually beneficial manner to implement coherent measures that cross borders. This includes carefully managing domestic job creation and local commercial advantages with the collective global need for clean energy technology deployment. Accelerating innovation, developing international standards and co-ordinating to scale up clean technologies needs to be done in a way that links national markets. Co-operation must recognise differences in the stages of development of different countries and the varying situations of different parts of society. For many rich countries, achieving net zero emissions will be more difficult and costly without international co-operation. For many developing countries, the pathway to net zero without international assistance is not clear. Technical and financial support is needed to ensure deployment of key technologies and infrastructure. Without greater international co-operation, global CO 2 emissions will not fall to net zero by 2050. 

Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the net zero pathway and Low International Cooperation Case, 2010-2090

A zero-carbon-ready building is highly energy efficient and either uses renewable energy directly or uses an energy supply that will be fully decarbonised by 2050, such as electricity or district heat.

Battery gigafactory capacity assumption = 35 gigawatt-hours per year.

Reference 1

Reference 2, related net zero reports.

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What is cloud computing?

With cloud computing, organizations essentially buy a range of services offered by cloud service providers (CSPs). The CSP’s servers host all the client’s applications. Organizations can enhance their computing power more quickly and cheaply via the cloud than by purchasing, installing, and maintaining their own servers.

The cloud-computing model is helping organizations to scale new digital solutions with greater speed and agility—and to create value more quickly. Developers use cloud services to build and run custom applications and to maintain infrastructure and networks for companies of virtually all sizes—especially large global ones. CSPs offer services, such as analytics, to handle and manipulate vast amounts of data. Time to market accelerates, speeding innovation to deliver better products and services across the world.

What are examples of cloud computing’s uses?

Get to know and directly engage with senior mckinsey experts on cloud computing.

Brant Carson is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Vancouver office; Chandra Gnanasambandam and Anand Swaminathan are senior partners in the Bay Area office; William Forrest is a senior partner in the Chicago office; Leandro Santos is a senior partner in the Atlanta office; Kate Smaje is a senior partner in the London office.

Cloud computing came on the scene well before the global pandemic hit, in 2020, but the ensuing digital dash  helped demonstrate its power and utility. Here are some examples of how businesses and other organizations employ the cloud:

• A fast-casual restaurant chain’s online orders multiplied exponentially during the 2020 pandemic lockdowns, climbing to 400,000 a day, from 50,000. One pleasant surprise? The company’s online-ordering system could handle the volume—because it had already migrated to the cloud . Thanks to this success, the organization’s leadership decided to accelerate its five-year migration plan to less than one year.
• A biotech company harnessed cloud computing to deliver the first clinical batch of a COVID-19 vaccine candidate for Phase I trials in just 42 days—thanks in part to breakthrough innovations using scalable cloud data storage and computing  to facilitate processes ensuring the drug’s safety and efficacy.
• Banks use the cloud for several aspects of customer-service management. They automate transaction calls using voice recognition algorithms and cognitive agents (AI-based online self-service assistants directing customers to helpful information or to a human representative when necessary). In fraud and debt analytics, cloud solutions enhance the predictive power of traditional early-warning systems. To reduce churn, they encourage customer loyalty through holistic retention programs managed entirely in the cloud.
• Automakers are also along for the cloud ride . One company uses a common cloud platform that serves 124 plants, 500 warehouses, and 1,500 suppliers to consolidate real-time data from machines and systems and to track logistics and offer insights on shop floor processes. Use of the cloud could shave 30 percent off factory costs by 2025—and spark innovation at the same time.

That’s not to mention experiences we all take for granted: using apps on a smartphone, streaming shows and movies, participating in videoconferences. All of these things can happen in the cloud.

Learn more about our Cloud by McKinsey , Digital McKinsey , and Technology, Media, & Telecommunications  practices.

How has cloud computing evolved?

Going back a few years, legacy infrastructure dominated IT-hosting budgets. Enterprises planned to move a mere 45 percent of their IT-hosting expenditures to the cloud by 2021. Enter COVID-19, and 65 percent of the decision makers surveyed by McKinsey increased their cloud budgets . An additional 55 percent ended up moving more workloads than initially planned. Having witnessed the cloud’s benefits firsthand, 40 percent of companies expect to pick up the pace of implementation.

The cloud revolution has actually been going on for years—more than 20, if you think the takeoff point was the founding of Salesforce, widely seen as the first software as a service (SaaS) company. Today, the next generation of cloud, including capabilities such as serverless computing, makes it easier for software developers to tweak software functions independently, accelerating the pace of release, and to do so more efficiently. Businesses can therefore serve customers and launch products in a more agile fashion. And the cloud continues to evolve.

Introducing McKinsey Explainers : Direct answers to complex questions

Cost savings are commonly seen as the primary reason for moving to the cloud but managing those costs requires a different and more dynamic approach focused on OpEx rather than CapEx. Financial-operations (or FinOps) capabilities  can indeed enable the continuous management and optimization of cloud costs . But CSPs have developed their offerings so that the cloud’s greatest value opportunity is primarily through business innovation and optimization. In 2020, the top-three CSPs reached $100 billion  in combined revenues—a minor share of the global $2.4 trillion market for enterprise IT services—leaving huge value to be captured. To go beyond merely realizing cost savings, companies must activate three symbiotic rings of cloud value creation : strategy and management, business domain adoption, and foundational capabilities.

What’s the main reason to move to the cloud?

The pandemic demonstrated that the digital transformation can no longer be delayed—and can happen much more quickly than previously imagined. Nothing is more critical to a corporate digital transformation than becoming a cloud-first business. The benefits are faster time to market, simplified innovation and scalability, and reduced risk when effectively managed. The cloud lets companies provide customers with novel digital experiences—in days, not months—and delivers analytics absent on legacy platforms. But to transition to a cloud-first operating model, organizations must make a collective effort that starts at the top. Here are three actions CEOs can take to increase the value their companies get from cloud computing :

• Establish a sustainable funding model.
• Develop a new business technology operating model.
• Set up policies to attract and retain the right engineering talent.

How much value will the cloud create?

Fortune 500 companies adopting the cloud could realize more than $1 trillion in value  by 2030, and not from IT cost reductions alone, according to McKinsey’s analysis of 700 use cases.

For example, the cloud speeds up design, build, and ramp-up, shortening time to market when companies have strong DevOps (the combination of development and operations) processes in place; groups of software developers customize and deploy software for operations that support the business. The cloud’s global infrastructure lets companies scale products almost instantly to reach new customers, geographies, and channels. Finally, digital-first companies use the cloud to adopt emerging technologies and innovate aggressively, using digital capabilities as a competitive differentiator to launch and build businesses .

If companies pursue the cloud’s vast potential in the right ways, they will realize huge value. Companies across diverse industries have implemented the public cloud and seen promising results. The successful ones defined a value-oriented strategy across IT and the business, acquired hands-on experience operating in the cloud, adopted a technology-first approach, and developed a cloud-literate workforce.

Learn more about our Cloud by McKinsey and Digital McKinsey practices.

What is the cloud cost/procurement model?

Some cloud services, such as server space, are leased. Leasing requires much less capital up front than buying, offers greater flexibility to switch and expand the use of services, cuts the basic cost of buying hardware and software upfront, and reduces the difficulties of upkeep and ownership. Organizations pay only for the infrastructure and computing services that meet their evolving needs. But an outsourcing model  is more apt than other analogies: the computing business issues of cloud customers are addressed by third-party providers that deliver innovative computing services on demand to a wide variety of customers, adapt those services to fit specific needs, and work to constantly improve the offering.

What are cloud risks?

The cloud offers huge cost savings and potential for innovation. However, when companies migrate to the cloud, the simple lift-and-shift approach doesn’t reduce costs, so companies must remediate their existing applications to take advantage of cloud services.

For instance, a major financial-services organization  wanted to move more than 50 percent of its applications to the public cloud within five years. Its goals were to improve resiliency, time to market, and productivity. But not all its business units needed to transition at the same pace. The IT leadership therefore defined varying adoption archetypes to meet each unit’s technical, risk, and operating-model needs.

Legacy cybersecurity architectures and operating models can also pose problems when companies shift to the cloud. The resulting problems, however, involve misconfigurations rather than inherent cloud security vulnerabilities. One powerful solution? Securing cloud workloads for speed and agility : automated security architectures and processes enable workloads to be processed at a much faster tempo.

What kind of cloud talent is needed?

The talent demands of the cloud differ from those of legacy IT. While cloud computing can improve the productivity of your technology, it requires specialized and sometimes hard-to-find talent—including full-stack developers, data engineers, cloud-security engineers, identity- and access-management specialists, and cloud engineers. The cloud talent model  should thus be revisited as you move forward.

Six practical actions can help your organization build the cloud talent you need :

• Find engineering talent with broad experience and skills.
• Balance talent maturity levels and the composition of teams.
• Build an extensive and mandatory upskilling program focused on need.
• Build an engineering culture that optimizes the developer experience.
• Consider using partners to accelerate development and assign your best cloud leaders as owners.
• Retain top talent by focusing on what motivates them.

How do different industries use the cloud?

Different industries are expected to see dramatically different benefits from the cloud. High-tech, retail, and healthcare organizations occupy the top end of the value capture continuum. Electronics and semiconductors, consumer-packaged-goods, and media companies make up the middle. Materials, chemicals, and infrastructure organizations cluster at the lower end.

Nevertheless, myriad use cases provide opportunities to unlock value across industries , as the following examples show:

• a retailer enhancing omnichannel  fulfillment, using AI to optimize inventory across channels and to provide a seamless customer experience
• a healthcare organization implementing remote heath monitoring to conduct virtual trials and improve adherence
• a high-tech company using chatbots to provide premier-level support combining phone, email, and chat
• an oil and gas company employing automated forecasting to automate supply-and-demand modeling and reduce the need for manual analysis
• a financial-services organization implementing customer call optimization using real-time voice recognition algorithms to direct customers in distress to experienced representatives for retention offers
• a financial-services provider moving applications in customer-facing business domains to the public cloud to penetrate promising markets more quickly and at minimal cost
• a health insurance carrier accelerating the capture of billions of dollars in new revenues by moving systems to the cloud to interact with providers through easier onboarding

The cloud is evolving  to meet the industry-specific needs of companies. From 2021 to 2024, public-cloud spending on vertical applications (such as warehouse management in retailing and enterprise risk management in banking) is expected to grow by more than 40 percent annually. Spending on horizontal workloads (such as customer relationship management) is expected to grow by 25 percent. Healthcare and manufacturing organizations, for instance, plan to spend around twice as much on vertical applications as on horizontal ones.

Learn more about our Cloud by McKinsey , Digital McKinsey , Financial Services , Healthcare Systems & Services , Retail , and Technology, Media, & Telecommunications  practices.

What are the biggest cloud myths?

Views on cloud computing can be clouded by misconceptions. Here are seven common myths about the cloud —all of which can be debunked:

• The cloud’s value lies primarily in reducing costs.
• Cloud computing costs more than in-house computing.
• On-premises data centers are more secure than the cloud.
• Applications run more slowly in the cloud.
• The cloud eliminates the need for infrastructure.
• The best way to move to the cloud is to focus on applications or data centers.
• You must lift and shift applications as-is or totally refactor them.

How large must my organization be to benefit from the cloud?

Here’s one more huge misconception: the cloud is just for big multinational companies. In fact, cloud can help make small local companies become multinational. A company’s benefits from implementing the cloud are not constrained by its size. In fact, the cloud shifts barrier to entry skill rather than scale, making it possible for a company of any size to compete if it has people with the right skills. With cloud, highly skilled small companies can take on established competitors. To realize the cloud’s immense potential value fully, organizations must take a thoughtful approach, with IT and the businesses working together.

For more in-depth exploration of these topics, see McKinsey’s Cloud Insights collection. Learn more about Cloud by McKinsey —and check out cloud-related job opportunities if you’re interested in working at McKinsey.

Articles referenced include:

• “ Six practical actions for building the cloud talent you need ,” January 19, 2022, Brant Carson , Dorian Gärtner , Keerthi Iyengar, Anand Swaminathan , and Wayne Vest
• “ Cloud-migration opportunity: Business value grows, but missteps abound ,” October 12, 2021, Tara Balakrishnan, Chandra Gnanasambandam , Leandro Santos , and Bhargs Srivathsan
• “ Cloud’s trillion-dollar prize is up for grabs ,” February 26, 2021, Will Forrest , Mark Gu, James Kaplan , Michael Liebow, Raghav Sharma, Kate Smaje , and Steve Van Kuiken
• “ Unlocking value: Four lessons in cloud sourcing and consumption ,” November 2, 2020, Abhi Bhatnagar , Will Forrest , Naufal Khan , and Abdallah Salami
• “ Three actions CEOs can take to get value from cloud computing ,” July 21, 2020, Chhavi Arora , Tanguy Catlin , Will Forrest , James Kaplan , and Lars Vinter

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