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How to write a thesis statement + examples

What is a thesis statement?

Is a thesis statement a question, how do you write a good thesis statement, how do i know if my thesis statement is good, examples of thesis statements, helpful resources on how to write a thesis statement, frequently asked questions about writing a thesis statement, related articles.

A thesis statement is the main argument of your paper or thesis.

The thesis statement is one of the most important elements of any piece of academic writing . It is a brief statement of your paper’s main argument. Essentially, you are stating what you will be writing about.

You can see your thesis statement as an answer to a question. While it also contains the question, it should really give an answer to the question with new information and not just restate or reiterate it.

Your thesis statement is part of your introduction. Learn more about how to write a good thesis introduction in our introduction guide .

A thesis statement is not a question. A statement must be arguable and provable through evidence and analysis. While your thesis might stem from a research question, it should be in the form of a statement.

Tip: A thesis statement is typically 1-2 sentences. For a longer project like a thesis, the statement may be several sentences or a paragraph.

A good thesis statement needs to do the following:

• Condense the main idea of your thesis into one or two sentences.
• Answer your project’s main research question.
• Clearly state your position in relation to the topic .
• Make an argument that requires support or evidence.

Once you have written down a thesis statement, check if it fulfills the following criteria:

• Your statement needs to be provable by evidence. As an argument, a thesis statement needs to be debatable.
• Your statement needs to be precise. Do not give away too much information in the thesis statement and do not load it with unnecessary information.
• Your statement cannot say that one solution is simply right or simply wrong as a matter of fact. You should draw upon verified facts to persuade the reader of your solution, but you cannot just declare something as right or wrong.

As previously mentioned, your thesis statement should answer a question.

If the question is:

What do you think the City of New York should do to reduce traffic congestion?

A good thesis statement restates the question and answers it:

In this paper, I will argue that the City of New York should focus on providing exclusive lanes for public transport and adaptive traffic signals to reduce traffic congestion by the year 2035.

Here is another example. If the question is:

How can we end poverty?

A good thesis statement should give more than one solution to the problem in question:

In this paper, I will argue that introducing universal basic income can help reduce poverty and positively impact the way we work.

• The Writing Center of the University of North Carolina has a list of questions to ask to see if your thesis is strong .

A thesis statement is part of the introduction of your paper. It is usually found in the first or second paragraph to let the reader know your research purpose from the beginning.

In general, a thesis statement should have one or two sentences. But the length really depends on the overall length of your project. Take a look at our guide about the length of thesis statements for more insight on this topic.

Here is a list of Thesis Statement Examples that will help you understand better how to write them.

Every good essay should include a thesis statement as part of its introduction, no matter the academic level. Of course, if you are a high school student you are not expected to have the same type of thesis as a PhD student.

Here is a great YouTube tutorial showing How To Write An Essay: Thesis Statements .

Developing a Thesis Statement

Many papers you write require developing a thesis statement. In this section you’ll learn what a thesis statement is and how to write one.

Keep in mind that not all papers require thesis statements . If in doubt, please consult your instructor for assistance.

What is a thesis statement?

A thesis statement . . .

• Makes an argumentative assertion about a topic; it states the conclusions that you have reached about your topic.
• Makes a promise to the reader about the scope, purpose, and direction of your paper.
• Is focused and specific enough to be “proven” within the boundaries of your paper.
• Is generally located near the end of the introduction ; sometimes, in a long paper, the thesis will be expressed in several sentences or in an entire paragraph.
• Identifies the relationships between the pieces of evidence that you are using to support your argument.

Not all papers require thesis statements! Ask your instructor if you’re in doubt whether you need one.

Identify a topic

Your topic is the subject about which you will write. Your assignment may suggest several ways of looking at a topic; or it may name a fairly general concept that you will explore or analyze in your paper.

Consider what your assignment asks you to do

Inform yourself about your topic, focus on one aspect of your topic, ask yourself whether your topic is worthy of your efforts, generate a topic from an assignment.

Below are some possible topics based on sample assignments.

Sample assignment 1

Analyze Spain’s neutrality in World War II.

Identified topic

Franco’s role in the diplomatic relationships between the Allies and the Axis

This topic avoids generalities such as “Spain” and “World War II,” addressing instead on Franco’s role (a specific aspect of “Spain”) and the diplomatic relations between the Allies and Axis (a specific aspect of World War II).

Sample assignment 2

Analyze one of Homer’s epic similes in the Iliad.

The relationship between the portrayal of warfare and the epic simile about Simoisius at 4.547-64.

This topic focuses on a single simile and relates it to a single aspect of the Iliad ( warfare being a major theme in that work).

Developing a Thesis Statement–Additional information

Your assignment may suggest several ways of looking at a topic, or it may name a fairly general concept that you will explore or analyze in your paper. You’ll want to read your assignment carefully, looking for key terms that you can use to focus your topic.

Sample assignment: Analyze Spain’s neutrality in World War II Key terms: analyze, Spain’s neutrality, World War II

After you’ve identified the key words in your topic, the next step is to read about them in several sources, or generate as much information as possible through an analysis of your topic. Obviously, the more material or knowledge you have, the more possibilities will be available for a strong argument. For the sample assignment above, you’ll want to look at books and articles on World War II in general, and Spain’s neutrality in particular.

As you consider your options, you must decide to focus on one aspect of your topic. This means that you cannot include everything you’ve learned about your topic, nor should you go off in several directions. If you end up covering too many different aspects of a topic, your paper will sprawl and be unconvincing in its argument, and it most likely will not fulfull the assignment requirements.

For the sample assignment above, both Spain’s neutrality and World War II are topics far too broad to explore in a paper. You may instead decide to focus on Franco’s role in the diplomatic relationships between the Allies and the Axis , which narrows down what aspects of Spain’s neutrality and World War II you want to discuss, as well as establishes a specific link between those two aspects.

Before you go too far, however, ask yourself whether your topic is worthy of your efforts. Try to avoid topics that already have too much written about them (i.e., “eating disorders and body image among adolescent women”) or that simply are not important (i.e. “why I like ice cream”). These topics may lead to a thesis that is either dry fact or a weird claim that cannot be supported. A good thesis falls somewhere between the two extremes. To arrive at this point, ask yourself what is new, interesting, contestable, or controversial about your topic.

As you work on your thesis, remember to keep the rest of your paper in mind at all times . Sometimes your thesis needs to evolve as you develop new insights, find new evidence, or take a different approach to your topic.

Derive a main point from topic

Once you have a topic, you will have to decide what the main point of your paper will be. This point, the “controlling idea,” becomes the core of your argument (thesis statement) and it is the unifying idea to which you will relate all your sub-theses. You can then turn this “controlling idea” into a purpose statement about what you intend to do in your paper.

Look for patterns in your evidence

Compose a purpose statement.

Consult the examples below for suggestions on how to look for patterns in your evidence and construct a purpose statement.

• Franco first tried to negotiate with the Axis
• Franco turned to the Allies when he couldn’t get some concessions that he wanted from the Axis

Possible conclusion:

Spain’s neutrality in WWII occurred for an entirely personal reason: Franco’s desire to preserve his own (and Spain’s) power.

Purpose statement

This paper will analyze Franco’s diplomacy during World War II to see how it contributed to Spain’s neutrality.

• The simile compares Simoisius to a tree, which is a peaceful, natural image.
• The tree in the simile is chopped down to make wheels for a chariot, which is an object used in warfare.

At first, the simile seems to take the reader away from the world of warfare, but we end up back in that world by the end.

This paper will analyze the way the simile about Simoisius at 4.547-64 moves in and out of the world of warfare.

Derive purpose statement from topic

To find out what your “controlling idea” is, you have to examine and evaluate your evidence . As you consider your evidence, you may notice patterns emerging, data repeated in more than one source, or facts that favor one view more than another. These patterns or data may then lead you to some conclusions about your topic and suggest that you can successfully argue for one idea better than another.

For instance, you might find out that Franco first tried to negotiate with the Axis, but when he couldn’t get some concessions that he wanted from them, he turned to the Allies. As you read more about Franco’s decisions, you may conclude that Spain’s neutrality in WWII occurred for an entirely personal reason: his desire to preserve his own (and Spain’s) power. Based on this conclusion, you can then write a trial thesis statement to help you decide what material belongs in your paper.

Sometimes you won’t be able to find a focus or identify your “spin” or specific argument immediately. Like some writers, you might begin with a purpose statement just to get yourself going. A purpose statement is one or more sentences that announce your topic and indicate the structure of the paper but do not state the conclusions you have drawn . Thus, you might begin with something like this:

• This paper will look at modern language to see if it reflects male dominance or female oppression.
• I plan to analyze anger and derision in offensive language to see if they represent a challenge of society’s authority.

At some point, you can turn a purpose statement into a thesis statement. As you think and write about your topic, you can restrict, clarify, and refine your argument, crafting your thesis statement to reflect your thinking.

As you work on your thesis, remember to keep the rest of your paper in mind at all times. Sometimes your thesis needs to evolve as you develop new insights, find new evidence, or take a different approach to your topic.

Compose a draft thesis statement

If you are writing a paper that will have an argumentative thesis and are having trouble getting started, the techniques in the table below may help you develop a temporary or “working” thesis statement.

Begin with a purpose statement that you will later turn into a thesis statement.

Assignment: Discuss the history of the Reform Party and explain its influence on the 1990 presidential and Congressional election.

Purpose Statement: This paper briefly sketches the history of the grassroots, conservative, Perot-led Reform Party and analyzes how it influenced the economic and social ideologies of the two mainstream parties.

Question-to-Assertion

If your assignment asks a specific question(s), turn the question(s) into an assertion and give reasons why it is true or reasons for your opinion.

Assignment : What do Aylmer and Rappaccini have to be proud of? Why aren’t they satisfied with these things? How does pride, as demonstrated in “The Birthmark” and “Rappaccini’s Daughter,” lead to unexpected problems?

Beginning thesis statement: Alymer and Rappaccinni are proud of their great knowledge; however, they are also very greedy and are driven to use their knowledge to alter some aspect of nature as a test of their ability. Evil results when they try to “play God.”

Write a sentence that summarizes the main idea of the essay you plan to write.

Main idea: The reason some toys succeed in the market is that they appeal to the consumers’ sense of the ridiculous and their basic desire to laugh at themselves.

Make a list of the ideas that you want to include; consider the ideas and try to group them.

• nature = peaceful
• war matériel = violent (competes with 1?)
• need for time and space to mourn the dead
• war is inescapable (competes with 3?)

Use a formula to arrive at a working thesis statement (you will revise this later).

• although most readers of _______ have argued that _______, closer examination shows that _______.
• _______ uses _______ and _____ to prove that ________.
• phenomenon x is a result of the combination of __________, __________, and _________.

What to keep in mind as you draft an initial thesis statement

Beginning statements obtained through the methods illustrated above can serve as a framework for planning or drafting your paper, but remember they’re not yet the specific, argumentative thesis you want for the final version of your paper. In fact, in its first stages, a thesis statement usually is ill-formed or rough and serves only as a planning tool.

As you write, you may discover evidence that does not fit your temporary or “working” thesis. Or you may reach deeper insights about your topic as you do more research, and you will find that your thesis statement has to be more complicated to match the evidence that you want to use.

You must be willing to reject or omit some evidence in order to keep your paper cohesive and your reader focused. Or you may have to revise your thesis to match the evidence and insights that you want to discuss. Read your draft carefully, noting the conclusions you have drawn and the major ideas which support or prove those conclusions. These will be the elements of your final thesis statement.

Sometimes you will not be able to identify these elements in your early drafts, but as you consider how your argument is developing and how your evidence supports your main idea, ask yourself, “ What is the main point that I want to prove/discuss? ” and “ How will I convince the reader that this is true? ” When you can answer these questions, then you can begin to refine the thesis statement.

Refine and polish the thesis statement

To get to your final thesis, you’ll need to refine your draft thesis so that it’s specific and arguable.

• Ask if your draft thesis addresses the assignment
• Question each part of your draft thesis
• Clarify vague phrases and assertions
• Investigate alternatives to your draft thesis

Consult the example below for suggestions on how to refine your draft thesis statement.

Sample Assignment

Choose an activity and define it as a symbol of American culture. Your essay should cause the reader to think critically about the society which produces and enjoys that activity.

• Ask The phenomenon of drive-in facilities is an interesting symbol of american culture, and these facilities demonstrate significant characteristics of our society.This statement does not fulfill the assignment because it does not require the reader to think critically about society.

Drive-ins are an interesting symbol of American culture because they represent Americans’ significant creativity and business ingenuity.

Among the types of drive-in facilities familiar during the twentieth century, drive-in movie theaters best represent American creativity, not merely because they were the forerunner of later drive-ins and drive-throughs, but because of their impact on our culture: they changed our relationship to the automobile, changed the way people experienced movies, and changed movie-going into a family activity.

While drive-in facilities such as those at fast-food establishments, banks, pharmacies, and dry cleaners symbolize America’s economic ingenuity, they also have affected our personal standards.

While drive-in facilities such as those at fast- food restaurants, banks, pharmacies, and dry cleaners symbolize (1) Americans’ business ingenuity, they also have contributed (2) to an increasing homogenization of our culture, (3) a willingness to depersonalize relationships with others, and (4) a tendency to sacrifice quality for convenience.

This statement is now specific and fulfills all parts of the assignment. This version, like any good thesis, is not self-evident; its points, 1-4, will have to be proven with evidence in the body of the paper. The numbers in this statement indicate the order in which the points will be presented. Depending on the length of the paper, there could be one paragraph for each numbered item or there could be blocks of paragraph for even pages for each one.

Complete the final thesis statement

The bottom line.

As you move through the process of crafting a thesis, you’ll need to remember four things:

• Context matters! Think about your course materials and lectures. Try to relate your thesis to the ideas your instructor is discussing.
• As you go through the process described in this section, always keep your assignment in mind . You will be more successful when your thesis (and paper) responds to the assignment than if it argues a semi-related idea.
• Your thesis statement should be precise, focused, and contestable ; it should predict the sub-theses or blocks of information that you will use to prove your argument.
• Make sure that you keep the rest of your paper in mind at all times. Change your thesis as your paper evolves, because you do not want your thesis to promise more than your paper actually delivers.

In the beginning, the thesis statement was a tool to help you sharpen your focus, limit material and establish the paper’s purpose. When your paper is finished, however, the thesis statement becomes a tool for your reader. It tells the reader what you have learned about your topic and what evidence led you to your conclusion. It keeps the reader on track–well able to understand and appreciate your argument.

Writing Process and Structure

This is an accordion element with a series of buttons that open and close related content panels.

Getting Started with Your Paper

Interpreting Writing Assignments from Your Courses

Generating Ideas for

Creating an Argument

Thesis vs. Purpose Statements

Architecture of Arguments

Working with Sources

Quoting and Paraphrasing Sources

Using Literary Quotations

Citing Sources in Your Paper

Drafting Your Paper

Generating Ideas for Your Paper

Introductions

Paragraphing

Developing Strategic Transitions

Conclusions

Revising Your Paper

Peer Reviews

Reverse Outlines

Revising an Argumentative Paper

Revision Strategies for Longer Projects

Finishing Your Paper

Twelve Common Errors: An Editing Checklist

How to Proofread your Paper

Writing Collaboratively

Collaborative and Group Writing

While Sandel argues that pursuing perfection through genetic engineering would decrease our sense of humility, he claims that the sense of solidarity we would lose is also important.

This thesis summarizes several points in Sandel’s argument, but it does not make a claim about how we should understand his argument. A reader who read Sandel’s argument would not also need to read an essay based on this descriptive thesis.  

Broad thesis (arguable, but difficult to support with evidence) 

Michael Sandel’s arguments about genetic engineering do not take into consideration all the relevant issues.

This is an arguable claim because it would be possible to argue against it by saying that Michael Sandel’s arguments do take all of the relevant issues into consideration. But the claim is too broad. Because the thesis does not specify which “issues” it is focused on—or why it matters if they are considered—readers won’t know what the rest of the essay will argue, and the writer won’t know what to focus on. If there is a particular issue that Sandel does not address, then a more specific version of the thesis would include that issue—hand an explanation of why it is important.  

Arguable thesis with analytical claim 

While Sandel argues persuasively that our instinct to “remake” (54) ourselves into something ever more perfect is a problem, his belief that we can always draw a line between what is medically necessary and what makes us simply “better than well” (51) is less convincing.

This is an arguable analytical claim. To argue for this claim, the essay writer will need to show how evidence from the article itself points to this interpretation. It’s also a reasonable scope for a thesis because it can be supported with evidence available in the text and is neither too broad nor too narrow.  

Arguable thesis with normative claim 

Given Sandel’s argument against genetic enhancement, we should not allow parents to decide on using Human Growth Hormone for their children.

This thesis tells us what we should do about a particular issue discussed in Sandel’s article, but it does not tell us how we should understand Sandel’s argument.  

Questions to ask about your thesis 

• Is the thesis truly arguable? Does it speak to a genuine dilemma in the source, or would most readers automatically agree with it?  
• Is the thesis too obvious? Again, would most or all readers agree with it without needing to see your argument?  
• Is the thesis complex enough to require a whole essay's worth of argument?  
• Is the thesis supportable with evidence from the text rather than with generalizations or outside research?  
• Would anyone want to read a paper in which this thesis was developed? That is, can you explain what this paper is adding to our understanding of a problem, question, or topic?
• picture_as_pdf Thesis

Thesis Statements

What this handout is about.

This handout describes what a thesis statement is, how thesis statements work in your writing, and how you can craft or refine one for your draft.

Introduction

Writing in college often takes the form of persuasion—convincing others that you have an interesting, logical point of view on the subject you are studying. Persuasion is a skill you practice regularly in your daily life. You persuade your roommate to clean up, your parents to let you borrow the car, your friend to vote for your favorite candidate or policy. In college, course assignments often ask you to make a persuasive case in writing. You are asked to convince your reader of your point of view. This form of persuasion, often called academic argument, follows a predictable pattern in writing. After a brief introduction of your topic, you state your point of view on the topic directly and often in one sentence. This sentence is the thesis statement, and it serves as a summary of the argument you’ll make in the rest of your paper.

What is a thesis statement?

A thesis statement:

• tells the reader how you will interpret the significance of the subject matter under discussion.
• is a road map for the paper; in other words, it tells the reader what to expect from the rest of the paper.
• directly answers the question asked of you. A thesis is an interpretation of a question or subject, not the subject itself. The subject, or topic, of an essay might be World War II or Moby Dick; a thesis must then offer a way to understand the war or the novel.
• makes a claim that others might dispute.
• is usually a single sentence near the beginning of your paper (most often, at the end of the first paragraph) that presents your argument to the reader. The rest of the paper, the body of the essay, gathers and organizes evidence that will persuade the reader of the logic of your interpretation.

If your assignment asks you to take a position or develop a claim about a subject, you may need to convey that position or claim in a thesis statement near the beginning of your draft. The assignment may not explicitly state that you need a thesis statement because your instructor may assume you will include one. When in doubt, ask your instructor if the assignment requires a thesis statement. When an assignment asks you to analyze, to interpret, to compare and contrast, to demonstrate cause and effect, or to take a stand on an issue, it is likely that you are being asked to develop a thesis and to support it persuasively. (Check out our handout on understanding assignments for more information.)

How do I create a thesis?

A thesis is the result of a lengthy thinking process. Formulating a thesis is not the first thing you do after reading an essay assignment. Before you develop an argument on any topic, you have to collect and organize evidence, look for possible relationships between known facts (such as surprising contrasts or similarities), and think about the significance of these relationships. Once you do this thinking, you will probably have a “working thesis” that presents a basic or main idea and an argument that you think you can support with evidence. Both the argument and your thesis are likely to need adjustment along the way.

Writers use all kinds of techniques to stimulate their thinking and to help them clarify relationships or comprehend the broader significance of a topic and arrive at a thesis statement. For more ideas on how to get started, see our handout on brainstorming .

How do I know if my thesis is strong?

If there’s time, run it by your instructor or make an appointment at the Writing Center to get some feedback. Even if you do not have time to get advice elsewhere, you can do some thesis evaluation of your own. When reviewing your first draft and its working thesis, ask yourself the following :

• Do I answer the question? Re-reading the question prompt after constructing a working thesis can help you fix an argument that misses the focus of the question. If the prompt isn’t phrased as a question, try to rephrase it. For example, “Discuss the effect of X on Y” can be rephrased as “What is the effect of X on Y?”
• Have I taken a position that others might challenge or oppose? If your thesis simply states facts that no one would, or even could, disagree with, it’s possible that you are simply providing a summary, rather than making an argument.
• Is my thesis statement specific enough? Thesis statements that are too vague often do not have a strong argument. If your thesis contains words like “good” or “successful,” see if you could be more specific: why is something “good”; what specifically makes something “successful”?
• Does my thesis pass the “So what?” test? If a reader’s first response is likely to  be “So what?” then you need to clarify, to forge a relationship, or to connect to a larger issue.
• Does my essay support my thesis specifically and without wandering? If your thesis and the body of your essay do not seem to go together, one of them has to change. It’s okay to change your working thesis to reflect things you have figured out in the course of writing your paper. Remember, always reassess and revise your writing as necessary.
• Does my thesis pass the “how and why?” test? If a reader’s first response is “how?” or “why?” your thesis may be too open-ended and lack guidance for the reader. See what you can add to give the reader a better take on your position right from the beginning.

Suppose you are taking a course on contemporary communication, and the instructor hands out the following essay assignment: “Discuss the impact of social media on public awareness.” Looking back at your notes, you might start with this working thesis:

Social media impacts public awareness in both positive and negative ways.

You can use the questions above to help you revise this general statement into a stronger thesis.

• Do I answer the question? You can analyze this if you rephrase “discuss the impact” as “what is the impact?” This way, you can see that you’ve answered the question only very generally with the vague “positive and negative ways.”
• Have I taken a position that others might challenge or oppose? Not likely. Only people who maintain that social media has a solely positive or solely negative impact could disagree.
• Is my thesis statement specific enough? No. What are the positive effects? What are the negative effects?
• Does my thesis pass the “how and why?” test? No. Why are they positive? How are they positive? What are their causes? Why are they negative? How are they negative? What are their causes?
• Does my thesis pass the “So what?” test? No. Why should anyone care about the positive and/or negative impact of social media?

After thinking about your answers to these questions, you decide to focus on the one impact you feel strongly about and have strong evidence for:

Because not every voice on social media is reliable, people have become much more critical consumers of information, and thus, more informed voters.

This version is a much stronger thesis! It answers the question, takes a specific position that others can challenge, and it gives a sense of why it matters.

Let’s try another. Suppose your literature professor hands out the following assignment in a class on the American novel: Write an analysis of some aspect of Mark Twain’s novel Huckleberry Finn. “This will be easy,” you think. “I loved Huckleberry Finn!” You grab a pad of paper and write:

Mark Twain’s Huckleberry Finn is a great American novel.

You begin to analyze your thesis:

• Do I answer the question? No. The prompt asks you to analyze some aspect of the novel. Your working thesis is a statement of general appreciation for the entire novel.

Think about aspects of the novel that are important to its structure or meaning—for example, the role of storytelling, the contrasting scenes between the shore and the river, or the relationships between adults and children. Now you write:

In Huckleberry Finn, Mark Twain develops a contrast between life on the river and life on the shore.

• Do I answer the question? Yes!
• Have I taken a position that others might challenge or oppose? Not really. This contrast is well-known and accepted.
• Is my thesis statement specific enough? It’s getting there–you have highlighted an important aspect of the novel for investigation. However, it’s still not clear what your analysis will reveal.
• Does my thesis pass the “how and why?” test? Not yet. Compare scenes from the book and see what you discover. Free write, make lists, jot down Huck’s actions and reactions and anything else that seems interesting.
• Does my thesis pass the “So what?” test? What’s the point of this contrast? What does it signify?”

After examining the evidence and considering your own insights, you write:

Through its contrasting river and shore scenes, Twain’s Huckleberry Finn suggests that to find the true expression of American democratic ideals, one must leave “civilized” society and go back to nature.

This final thesis statement presents an interpretation of a literary work based on an analysis of its content. Of course, for the essay itself to be successful, you must now present evidence from the novel that will convince the reader of your interpretation.

Works consulted

We consulted these works while writing this handout. This is not a comprehensive list of resources on the handout’s topic, and we encourage you to do your own research to find additional publications. Please do not use this list as a model for the format of your own reference list, as it may not match the citation style you are using. For guidance on formatting citations, please see the UNC Libraries citation tutorial . We revise these tips periodically and welcome feedback.

Anson, Chris M., and Robert A. Schwegler. 2010. The Longman Handbook for Writers and Readers , 6th ed. New York: Longman.

Lunsford, Andrea A. 2015. The St. Martin’s Handbook , 8th ed. Boston: Bedford/St Martin’s.

Ramage, John D., John C. Bean, and June Johnson. 2018. The Allyn & Bacon Guide to Writing , 8th ed. New York: Pearson.

Ruszkiewicz, John J., Christy Friend, Daniel Seward, and Maxine Hairston. 2010. The Scott, Foresman Handbook for Writers , 9th ed. Boston: Pearson Education.

You may reproduce it for non-commercial use if you use the entire handout and attribute the source: The Writing Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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9.4: Argumentative Thesis Statements

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Learning Objective

• Recognize an argumentative thesis

A strong, argumentative thesis statement should take a stance about an issue. It should explain the basics of your argument and help your reader to know what to expect in your essay.

This video reviews the necessary components of a thesis statement and walks through some examples.

You can view the transcript for “Purdue OWL: Thesis Statements” here (opens in new window) .

Key Features of Argumentative Thesis Statements

Below are some of the key features of an argumentative thesis statement. An argumentative thesis is debatable, assertive, reasonable, evidence-based, and focused.

An argumentative thesis must make a claim about which reasonable people can disagree. Statements of fact or areas of general agreement cannot be argumentative theses because few people disagree about them. Let’s take a look at an example:

• BAD: Junk food is bad for your health.

This is not a debatable thesis. Most people would agree that junk food is bad for your health. A debatable thesis would be:

• GOOD: Because junk food is bad for your health, the size of sodas offered at fast-food restaurants should be regulated by the federal government.

Reasonable people could agree or disagree with the statement.

An argumentative thesis takes a position, asserting the writer’s stance. Questions, vague statements, or quotations from others are not argumentative theses because they do not assert the writer’s viewpoint. Let’s take a look at an example:

• BAD: Federal immigration law is a tough issue about which many people disagree.

This is not an arguable thesis because it does not assert a position.

• GOOD: Federal immigration enforcement law needs to be overhauled because it puts undue constraints on state and local police.

This is an argumentative thesis because it asserts a position that immigration enforcement law needs to be changed.

An argumentative thesis must make a claim that is logical and possible. Claims that are outrageous or impossible are not argumentative theses. Let’s take a look at an example:

• BAD: City council members are dishonest and should be thrown in jail.

This is not an argumentative thesis. City council members’ ineffectiveness is not a reason to send them to jail.

• GOOD: City council members should be term-limited to prevent one group or party from maintaining control indefinitely.

This is an arguable thesis because term limits are possible, and shared political control is a reasonable goal.

Evidence-Based

An argumentative thesis must be able to be supported by evidence. Claims that presuppose value systems, morals, or religious beliefs cannot be supported with evidence and therefore are not argumentative theses. Let’s take a look at an example:

• BAD: Individuals convicted of murder will go to hell when they die.

This is not an argumentative thesis because its support rests on religious beliefs or values rather than evidence.

• GOOD: Rehabilitation programs for individuals serving life sentences should be funded because these programs reduce violence within prisons.

This is an argumentative thesis because evidence such as case studies and statistics can be used to support it.

An argumentative thesis must be focused and narrow. A focused, narrow claim is clearer, more able to be supported with evidence, and more persuasive than a broad, general claim. Let’s take a look at an example:

• BAD: The federal government should overhaul the U.S. tax code.

This is not an effective argumentative thesis because it is too general (What part of the government? Which tax codes? What sections of those tax codes?) and would require an overwhelming amount of evidence to be fully supported.

• GOOD: The U.S. House of Representatives should vote to repeal the federal estate tax because the revenue generated by that tax is negligible.

This is an effective argumentative thesis because it identifies a specific actor and action and can be fully supported with evidence about the amount of revenue the estate tax generates.

In the practice exercises below, you will use this information from your reading to see if you can recognize and evaluate argumentative thesis statements. Keep in mind that a sound argumentative thesis should be debatable, assertive, reasonable, evidence-based, and focused.

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• Argumentative Thesis Statements. Provided by : University of Mississippi. License : CC BY: Attribution
• Argumentative Thesis Activity. Provided by : Excelsior College. Located at : http://owl.excelsior.edu/argument-and-critical-thinking/argumentative-thesis/argumentative-thesis-activity/ . License : CC BY: Attribution
• Purdue OWL: Thesis Statements. Provided by : OWLPurdue. Located at : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKXkemYldmw . License : Other . License Terms : Standard YouTube License

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Writing a Paper: Thesis Statements

Basics of thesis statements.

The thesis statement is the brief articulation of your paper's central argument and purpose. You might hear it referred to as simply a "thesis." Every scholarly paper should have a thesis statement, and strong thesis statements are concise, specific, and arguable. Concise means the thesis is short: perhaps one or two sentences for a shorter paper. Specific means the thesis deals with a narrow and focused topic, appropriate to the paper's length. Arguable means that a scholar in your field could disagree (or perhaps already has!).

Strong thesis statements address specific intellectual questions, have clear positions, and use a structure that reflects the overall structure of the paper. Read on to learn more about constructing a strong thesis statement.

Being Specific

This thesis statement has no specific argument:

Needs Improvement: In this essay, I will examine two scholarly articles to find similarities and differences.

This statement is concise, but it is neither specific nor arguable—a reader might wonder, "Which scholarly articles? What is the topic of this paper? What field is the author writing in?" Additionally, the purpose of the paper—to "examine…to find similarities and differences" is not of a scholarly level. Identifying similarities and differences is a good first step, but strong academic argument goes further, analyzing what those similarities and differences might mean or imply.

Better: In this essay, I will argue that Bowler's (2003) autocratic management style, when coupled with Smith's (2007) theory of social cognition, can reduce the expenses associated with employee turnover.

The new revision here is still concise, as well as specific and arguable.  We can see that it is specific because the writer is mentioning (a) concrete ideas and (b) exact authors.  We can also gather the field (business) and the topic (management and employee turnover). The statement is arguable because the student goes beyond merely comparing; he or she draws conclusions from that comparison ("can reduce the expenses associated with employee turnover").

Making a Unique Argument

This thesis draft repeats the language of the writing prompt without making a unique argument:

Needs Improvement: The purpose of this essay is to monitor, assess, and evaluate an educational program for its strengths and weaknesses. Then, I will provide suggestions for improvement.

You can see here that the student has simply stated the paper's assignment, without articulating specifically how he or she will address it. The student can correct this error simply by phrasing the thesis statement as a specific answer to the assignment prompt.

Better: Through a series of student interviews, I found that Kennedy High School's antibullying program was ineffective. In order to address issues of conflict between students, I argue that Kennedy High School should embrace policies outlined by the California Department of Education (2010).

Words like "ineffective" and "argue" show here that the student has clearly thought through the assignment and analyzed the material; he or she is putting forth a specific and debatable position. The concrete information ("student interviews," "antibullying") further prepares the reader for the body of the paper and demonstrates how the student has addressed the assignment prompt without just restating that language.

Creating a Debate

This thesis statement includes only obvious fact or plot summary instead of argument:

Needs Improvement: Leadership is an important quality in nurse educators.

A good strategy to determine if your thesis statement is too broad (and therefore, not arguable) is to ask yourself, "Would a scholar in my field disagree with this point?" Here, we can see easily that no scholar is likely to argue that leadership is an unimportant quality in nurse educators.  The student needs to come up with a more arguable claim, and probably a narrower one; remember that a short paper needs a more focused topic than a dissertation.

Better: Roderick's (2009) theory of participatory leadership  is particularly appropriate to nurse educators working within the emergency medicine field, where students benefit most from collegial and kinesthetic learning.

Here, the student has identified a particular type of leadership ("participatory leadership"), narrowing the topic, and has made an arguable claim (this type of leadership is "appropriate" to a specific type of nurse educator). Conceivably, a scholar in the nursing field might disagree with this approach. The student's paper can now proceed, providing specific pieces of evidence to support the arguable central claim.

Choosing the Right Words

This thesis statement uses large or scholarly-sounding words that have no real substance:

Needs Improvement: Scholars should work to seize metacognitive outcomes by harnessing discipline-based networks to empower collaborative infrastructures.

There are many words in this sentence that may be buzzwords in the student's field or key terms taken from other texts, but together they do not communicate a clear, specific meaning. Sometimes students think scholarly writing means constructing complex sentences using special language, but actually it's usually a stronger choice to write clear, simple sentences. When in doubt, remember that your ideas should be complex, not your sentence structure.

Better: Ecologists should work to educate the U.S. public on conservation methods by making use of local and national green organizations to create a widespread communication plan.

Notice in the revision that the field is now clear (ecology), and the language has been made much more field-specific ("conservation methods," "green organizations"), so the reader is able to see concretely the ideas the student is communicating.

Leaving Room for Discussion

This thesis statement is not capable of development or advancement in the paper:

Needs Improvement: There are always alternatives to illegal drug use.

This sample thesis statement makes a claim, but it is not a claim that will sustain extended discussion. This claim is the type of claim that might be appropriate for the conclusion of a paper, but in the beginning of the paper, the student is left with nowhere to go. What further points can be made? If there are "always alternatives" to the problem the student is identifying, then why bother developing a paper around that claim? Ideally, a thesis statement should be complex enough to explore over the length of the entire paper.

Better: The most effective treatment plan for methamphetamine addiction may be a combination of pharmacological and cognitive therapy, as argued by Baker (2008), Smith (2009), and Xavier (2011).

In the revised thesis, you can see the student make a specific, debatable claim that has the potential to generate several pages' worth of discussion. When drafting a thesis statement, think about the questions your thesis statement will generate: What follow-up inquiries might a reader have? In the first example, there are almost no additional questions implied, but the revised example allows for a good deal more exploration.

Thesis Mad Libs

If you are having trouble getting started, try using the models below to generate a rough model of a thesis statement! These models are intended for drafting purposes only and should not appear in your final work.

• In this essay, I argue ____, using ______ to assert _____.
• While scholars have often argued ______, I argue______, because_______.
• Through an analysis of ______, I argue ______, which is important because_______.

Words to Avoid and to Embrace

When drafting your thesis statement, avoid words like explore, investigate, learn, compile, summarize , and explain to describe the main purpose of your paper. These words imply a paper that summarizes or "reports," rather than synthesizing and analyzing.

Instead of the terms above, try words like argue, critique, question , and interrogate . These more analytical words may help you begin strongly, by articulating a specific, critical, scholarly position.

Read Kayla's blog post for tips on taking a stand in a well-crafted thesis statement.

Related Resources

Didn't find what you need? Email us at [email protected] .

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Module: Academic Argument

Argumentative thesis statements, learning objective.

• Recognize an arguable thesis

Below are some of the key features of an argumentative thesis statement.

An argumentative thesis is . . .

An argumentative thesis must make a claim about which reasonable people can disagree. Statements of fact or areas of general agreement cannot be argumentative theses because few people disagree about them.

Junk food is bad for your health is not a debatable thesis. Most people would agree that junk food is bad for your health.

Because junk food is bad for your health, the size of sodas offered at fast-food restaurants should be regulated by the federal government is a debatable thesis.  Reasonable people could agree or disagree with the statement.

An argumentative thesis takes a position, asserting the writer’s stance. Questions, vague statements, or quotations from others are not argumentative theses because they do not assert the writer’s viewpoint.

Federal immigration law is a tough issue about which many people disagree is not an arguable thesis because it does not assert a position.

Federal immigration enforcement law needs to be overhauled because it puts undue constraints on state and local police is an argumentative thesis because it asserts a position that immigration enforcement law needs to be changed.

An argumentative thesis must make a claim that is logical and possible. Claims that are outrageous or impossible are not argumentative theses.

City council members stink and should be thrown in jail is not an argumentative thesis. City council members’ ineffectiveness is not a reason to send them to jail.

City council members should be term limited to prevent one group or party from maintaining control indefinitely is an arguable thesis because term limits are possible, and shared political control is a reasonable goal.

Evidence Based

An argumentative thesis must be able to be supported by evidence. Claims that presuppose value systems, morals, or religious beliefs cannot be supported with evidence and therefore are not argumentative theses.

Individuals convicted of murder will go to hell when they die is not an argumentative thesis because its support rests on religious beliefs or values rather than evidence.

Rehabilitation programs for individuals serving life sentences should be funded because these programs reduce violence within prisons is an argumentative thesis because evidence such as case studies and statistics can be used to support it.

An argumentative thesis must be focused and narrow. A focused, narrow claim is clearer, more able to be supported with evidence, and more persuasive than a broad, general claim.

The federal government should overhaul the U.S. tax code is not an effective argumentative thesis because it is too general (What part of the government? Which tax codes? What sections of those tax codes?) and would require an overwhelming amount of evidence to be fully supported.

The U.S. House of Representative should vote to repeal the federal estate tax because the revenue generated by that tax is negligible is an effective argumentative thesis because it identifies a specific actor and action and can be fully supported with evidence about the amount of revenue the estate tax generates.

• Argumentative Thesis Statements. Provided by : University of Mississippi. License : CC BY: Attribution

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Tips and Examples for Writing Thesis Statements

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Tips for Writing Your Thesis Statement

1. Determine what kind of paper you are writing:

• An analytical paper breaks down an issue or an idea into its component parts, evaluates the issue or idea, and presents this breakdown and evaluation to the audience.
• An expository (explanatory) paper explains something to the audience.
• An argumentative paper makes a claim about a topic and justifies this claim with specific evidence. The claim could be an opinion, a policy proposal, an evaluation, a cause-and-effect statement, or an interpretation. The goal of the argumentative paper is to convince the audience that the claim is true based on the evidence provided.

If you are writing a text that does not fall under these three categories (e.g., a narrative), a thesis statement somewhere in the first paragraph could still be helpful to your reader.

2. Your thesis statement should be specific—it should cover only what you will discuss in your paper and should be supported with specific evidence.

3. The thesis statement usually appears at the end of the first paragraph of a paper.

4. Your topic may change as you write, so you may need to revise your thesis statement to reflect exactly what you have discussed in the paper.

Thesis Statement Examples

Example of an analytical thesis statement:

The paper that follows should:

• Explain the analysis of the college admission process
• Explain the challenge facing admissions counselors

Example of an expository (explanatory) thesis statement:

• Explain how students spend their time studying, attending class, and socializing with peers

Example of an argumentative thesis statement:

• Present an argument and give evidence to support the claim that students should pursue community projects before entering college

Unraveling the Mystery of the "Controversial Thesis"

Have you ever brought a paper into the Writing Center only to hear this enigma-"your thesis isn't controversial enough?" Well, Writing Fellows aren't here to puzzle you; we just forget to explain our jargon sometimes. This handout will lift the shroud of mystery from the controversial thesis and clarify what a controversial thesis is and how to write one!

What is a controversial thesis?

A controversial thesis is a cogent argument that considers questions that have not already been answered.

For example, "The characters in The Sopranos are very complex" is not a controversial thesis. It is not a controversial thesis because it presents a preexisting phenomenon, of which many people (probably including your professor) are aware. More importantly, while this thesis statement is true, it is not arguable.

A good litmus test to see if your thesis is arguable is to ask yourself: does my reader know why I'm making this point? Since the reader is left wondering "so what?" by the aforementioned thesis, it is not controversial.

On the other hand, "Some say that The Sopranos presents caricatures of Italian Americans. However, the characters in the series are very complex!" is a controversial thesis. The reader knows why the author is putting forth this argument; the author wants to enter into a debate about the characters on The Sopranos, instead of just presenting them.

How do I write a controversial thesis?

It still might seem challenging to take an original stance in a complicated and active debate, but never fear-here are some tips for writing a controversial thesis:

• Consider a counter-argument Comparing or contrasting your interpretation to a standard view or even to a view that you used to hold can create a counter-argument.
• Define your terms and assumptions By providing your reasons for agreeing or disagreeing with another's view, you highlight your motivation for making a similar or different argument. Your reasons for making an argument are what distinguish you, and what makes your thesis arguable and controversial.
• Interpret, Don't Evaluate An evaluative thesis, such as one that presents your preference, is not controversial. However, an interpretative thesis, where you take and defend a position, is controversial. You can't argue about opinions, but you can argue over interpretations.
• Offer a qualification or limitation to the case you've made You can present the limitations or qualifications of an argument by presenting a standard view and then raising objections to it, or by presenting your own argument and then discussing possible objections to it.
• Write about something that matters to you Writing about something that genuinely matters to you, such as an idea that changed your view on a particular issue, is a great way to present an interesting argument that passes the "so what?" test with flying colors.

Note : Many of these writing tips, as well as the example of a controversial and uncontroversial thesis, were adapted from They Say/I Say: The Moves That Matter In Academic Writing by Gerald Graff and Cathy Birkenstein. In addition, several of the bullet headings for the section on writing a controversial thesis were taken from Gordon Harvey's "Elements of the Academic Essay." Advice was also inspired by "Novice as Expert: Writing the Freshman Year" by Nancy Sommers and Laura Saltz.

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Definition of debatable

• controvertible
• questionable

Examples of debatable in a Sentence

These examples are programmatically compiled from various online sources to illustrate current usage of the word 'debatable.' Any opinions expressed in the examples do not represent those of Merriam-Webster or its editors. Send us feedback about these examples.

Word History

1536, in the meaning defined at sense 1

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“Debatable.” Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary , Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/debatable. Accessed 3 Jun. 2024.

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debatable adjective & noun

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What does the word debatable mean?

There are four meanings listed in OED's entry for the word debatable , one of which is labelled obsolete. See ‘Meaning & use’ for definitions, usage, and quotation evidence.

Entry status

OED is undergoing a continuous programme of revision to modernize and improve definitions. This entry has not yet been fully revised.

How common is the word debatable ?

How is the word debatable pronounced, british english, u.s. english, where does the word debatable come from.

Earliest known use

Middle English

The earliest known use of the word debatable is in the Middle English period (1150—1500).

OED's earliest evidence for debatable is from 1492.

debatable is a borrowing from French.

Etymons: French debatable .

Nearby entries

• debarrent, n. 1884–
• debase, v. 1565–
• debased, adj. 1593–
• debasedness, n. a1720–
• debasement, n. 1593–
• debaser, n. 1611–
• debash, v. 1610
• debasing, n. 1891–
• debasing, adj. 1775–
• debasure, n. 1683
• debatable, adj. & n. 1492–
• debate, n.¹ 1340–
• debate, n.² c1460
• debate, v.¹ c1386–
• debate, v.² a1400–1658
• debateful, adj. a1492–1611
• debatefully, adv. 1611
• debatement, n.¹ 1536–1641
• debatement, n.² a1563
• debater, n. 1413–
• debating, n. 1548–

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Meaning & use

Pronunciation, compounds & derived words, entry history for debatable, adj. & n..

debatable, adj. & n. was first published in 1894; not yet revised.

debatable, adj. & n. was last modified in March 2024.

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Revisions and additions of this kind were last incorporated into debatable, adj. & n. in March 2024.

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• America’s Most Powerful Pollster Has Some Doubts

When Nate Cohn releases a poll, people pay attention. Cohn, who created and oversees the New York Times –Siena College poll, is perhaps alone among peers in his capability to drive a narrative with proprietary data. For example, in November 2023, NYT-Siena polls that found President Biden trailing Donald Trump in several swing states set off a (familiar) cycle of Democratic anxiety and recriminations about Biden’s prospects that continues to the present moment. Cohn is highly regarded in the field — his sophisticated methods and high transparency levels merit FiveThirtyEight’s highest rating , and his 2022 polls were uncannily accurate . But he is hardly infallible: Among other things, the NYT-Siena surveys in 2016 and 2020, like many others, significantly underestimated Donald Trump’s strength in swing states. Last week, I spoke with Cohn about the unusual elements of the Biden vs. Trump 2024 rematch , why we still don’t know what went wrong with 2020 polling, and whether the New York Times covers its own polls appropriately. (Our conversation took place hours before Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 charges, which, Cohn later wrote , could provide a boost for Biden among key voters he’s been struggling with.)

Most polls, including yours, have Trump currently leading in the important swing states. I want to start with the question of how predictive polls are at this point in the election cycle, because I’ve seen various theories on that. And I’m wondering if they’re more predictive this far out than they used to be, since people’s political views are so entrenched now. We don’t see huge swings like we did in the Dukakis vs. Bush days, for example. The short answer is that polls at this stage are not typically extraordinarily predictive of the final outcome, but as you mentioned, they’ve become more accurate in recent decades. American politics is more polarized, so there are fewer swing voters. Voters know a lot more about the candidates in recent cycles than they have in the past. We’ve had a lot of well-known candidates like Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump who aren’t unknown like Michael Dukakis was in 1988.

There are other things that we  see in the data nowadays that suggest that the polls are less volatile than they used to be. For instance, Michael Dukakis built that tremendous lead in the summer of 1988 after the Democratic convention that year. It was pretty common for candidates to come out of a convention enjoying a huge double-digit bounce, and we just don’t see things like that happen anymore. The catch is that our elections are much closer than they used to be. So even though the polls at this stage may be more quote-on-quote predictive than they were 20 or 30 years ago, because the range of election outcomes has also narrowed as well, it’s not like now we know who’s going to win. And that’s especially true in this race, where the candidates are, as you know, fairly close in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Plus, there weren’t real primaries this time around, and it doesn’t really feel like there’s been the usual election slog yet — just a creeping sense of dread among Americans that it’s going to be the same two guys. Yeah. This is pretty subjective, but I don’t really feel like this campaign is underway yet.

I agree. You were early to mark one of the major polling story lines of this election , which is the split that’s showing up in polling between likely voters and registered voters. Democrats are doing quite well among the first group, made up of enthusiastic voters who cast ballots regularly, and less well among the second group, who vote irregularly. Every poll seems to show this split — how confident are you at this point that it’s actually happening? When we’re talking about polling, saying something like “actually happening” is always hard. Polls are fuzzy things, and they are inherently imperfect, so even when all the polls agree on something, it’s hard to ever be 100 percent sure it’s real. But in this particular case, as far as I’m aware, all of the evidence suggests that something like this story is real. We can debate about the degrees, we can debate about whether it’ll last until November, but I don’t think that there’s very much room to disagree with the notion that the Democrats are showing a lot of strength among the most regular and highly engaged voters, and Joe Biden in particular is extremely weak among less engaged voters, and in particular less engaged Democrats.

Do you have any theories as to why it’s playing out this way? That seems to be the big question right now. I think there are two broad theories. One is that it’s a matter of engagement, that these people aren’t paying close attention, that if they did — or when they do — that they will end up behaving like more highly engaged voters of the same demographic profile. So in this theory, a Black voter who’s paying attention is for Biden and one who’s not paying attention is ambivalent. And once they pay attention, they’ll support Biden. You can come up with evidence to support that theory.

You could also look at their evaluations of the economy. Less engaged Democrats are much more likely to say the economy is poor than highly engaged Democrats. That may reflect actual factual knowledge about the unemployment rate, or how the stock market is doing, and so on. You can posit that some of these voters, as they tune in, and as the campaign heats up, will glean the same information the highly engaged voters already have, and they’ll swing Biden’s way.

The second theory is that it’s not just about engagement, it’s that these are fundamentally different kinds of voters who will never be as engaged as someone who watches MSNBC every night. And as a consequence of their relative lack of knowledge of American politics, of policy and economics, they’re much less likely to be voting on the issues. They’re less likely to think about abortion or democracy and instead vote on character and which candidate looks strong or weak. They’re more likely to want a candidate who supports change, just because they’re not happy with the status quo, and they’re not going to make the rational calculation that, “Oh, I’m not happy, but I think Donald Trump is a threat to democracy, and therefore, I’ll vote for Joe Biden, even though I don’t like him.” Those just aren’t the kinds of calculations that less engaged voters make. And it’s worth noting that we know that the people who didn’t vote in recent elections, almost by definition, are not the ones who were motivated to stop Donald Trump last time. If they were, they would have voted. So we know that this is a group of people that just can’t be that upset about Donald Trump. And if that’s true, then Joe Biden’s problem is going to be really deep.

That group of voters, who aren’t paying attention to the news and are voting on things like character, is always enormous. The difference for Democrats, though, is that there’s this gap between likely and not-so-likely voters that I don’t think existed even four years ago. So what changed? Donald Trump has never been popular. He’s still not popular . His unfavorability rating is just as high today as it was heading into Election Day 2020. This group of disengaged voters doesn’t like Donald Trump and never did. What’s changed, to my mind, is that Joe Biden went from being a broadly appealing person — they didn’t necessarily love him, they didn’t necessarily even like him, but he was acceptable — to someone who many voters do not find acceptable anymore.

They think his stewardship of the economy is terrible , and they think he’s simply too old to be president and that he no longer passes some sort of basic visual gut check for millions of Americans. And Biden is trying to still win those voters on a pretty sophisticated argument, frankly, about Donald Trump as a threat to democracy and about his opposition to abortion rights. It’s an issue-based appeal that I think very naturally would resonate among those who pay close attention to politics, who have well-informed opinions on the issues, and would naturally not resonate so well with those who don’t.

And then for good measure, we have the economy looming over this whole picture. Many less engaged voters are less likely to have college degrees, and they are less likely to make $100,000 a year. Donald Trump in 2020 and 2016 was seen as the best candidate on the economy, and now that issue matters much more for voters, because they say the economy is bad.

It doesn’t sound like you think that much of Biden’s current strategy in going after these voters. And his team’s general attitude toward negative polls , at least publicly, is “They’re not right.” Do you think their outreach strategy reflects a denial of the reality they’re up against? I’m not sure whether it reflects reality denial or not. I think that it may reflect the hand they have to play. Voters don’t think Joe Biden has done a good job, and they don’t think the economy’s especially good. And many of the arguments that Democrats would traditionally make against the Republican, like, “Oh, they’re going to help the rich and not the working class,” are harder to make against Donald Trump than they were against Mitt Romney in 2012. The arguments that the Democrats have at their disposal that are strongest, and that might well win them the election in the end, are about democracy and abortion. There just aren’t very many other places where they can fight.

In other words, trying to convince people that the economy is strong, which it is on paper, is a losing battle. Well, I’m not saying they shouldn’t try and do more in that space, and I can’t prescribe what the optimal economic message is for Biden. I don’t know if it’s to say that the economy is good, and try and convince people that it’s not as bad as they think: “Look at these great stats.” I don’t know if it’s to acknowledge that things are bad, but say things are getting better. I don’t know if it’s to say that Donald Trump would make it worse. I’m not going to speculate about what would do best on the economy. I’m just saying that, in terms of how Joe Biden can actually try to win this election, as opposed to playing defense, clearly abortion and democracy are two powerful arguments, and they may be their best arguments. If they have another argument that has the potential to resonate a little more broadly with voters, in particular those concerned about pocketbook issues, I haven’t seen anyone floating it.

Abortion and democracy have worked very well for Democratic candidates in the last two to four years. But we’re seeing that state Democratic candidates are outrunning Biden right now, which also ties into the theory that is really just about the president and less about Trump.  Yeah. The thing that the Democratic Senate numbers and other numbers down ballot remind us of is that Biden’s weakness right now is among voters who usually vote for Democratic candidates, and maybe even people who don’t usually need to think too hard about who they’re going to vote for. Maybe they’re registered as Democrats and they come from demographic groups that typically vote Democratic. And there are lots of reasons why people are Democrats. For some, it’s because of their views on a host of policy issues. Others are from identity groups that bind them in different ways toward the Democrats, like as a union worker or an African American. And other people support the Democrats out of perceived self-interest — they might think that Democrats are going to protect their Medicare and Social Security, or that they’re good for working people, and so on.

And I think that latter group, that group of people who have traditionally supported the Democrats on pocketbook-issue grounds, might well be the heart of Biden’s problem here. It explains, to my satisfaction at least, why the numbers are so unique at the presidential level. Because Democrats aren’t being weighed down by Biden’s economic stewardship, it seems, and similarly, other Republicans don’t have Trump’s unique brand name on economic management.

He’s a businessman, as voters like to remind us. Biden has a problem with Black and Hispanic voters in particular right now, as you alluded to. How much does that overlap with the disengaged-voter problem? Is it basically the same problem, or are these two distinct issues?  That’s a good question. They’re certainly related, but it is worth noting that Biden is holding up among well-engaged, high-frequency Black voters. He’s also holding up among Hispanic midterm voters in our poll. We’re talking about small groups, and now we’re looking at the subset of small groups that don’t regularly vote. So there’s an extra layer, I think, of uncertainty around exactly where Biden’s weakness among Black and Hispanic voters lies. But it’s conceivably consistent that most of his weakness among Black and Latino voters is among relatively disengaged Black and Latino voters. And if that’s true, it carries some interesting possibilities. If it’s a low-turnout election, maybe you end up with the Black and Latino share of the electorate declining, but then Biden does better than the polls show among Black and Hispanic voters. Which wouldn’t necessarily net out any differently in the top-line poll result, because many of these Black and Latino voters staying home are still, on-net, Biden voters. They may not be as good for Democrats as in the past, but they still lean Democratic. And so you could get the sort of scenario where the final results demographically look considerably more normal, but the turnout of Black and Latino voters is quite low. I think that’s at least imaginable.

Which is one reason Democrats may want lower turnout for once — another strange thing about this election.  The funny thing about turnout is it’s not just the level — it’s who is voting and staying at home. If you get low turnout and the people who show up are the people who showed up in the midterms, that may be fine. If you get high turnout and the increase is coming out of Black and Latino voters, that could be good for Biden, but if it’s coming out of white working-class voters, it wouldn’t be. And so on.

Pivoting a bit to polling more generally: The New York Times– Siena polls were dead-on in 2022 and also extremely accurate in 2018. They were considerably less accurate in 2016 and 2020, underestimating Trump support in swing states in those years. I remember, after 2020, you were trying to understand what had happened . Four years later, what is your thesis about why your surveys were so off 2020 yet so good two years later?  The truth is that there is not an excellent explanation for what went wrong in 2020. And I should note that I didn’t feel like this was true after 2016. After 2016, there was no shortage of plausible explanations for why the polls had underestimated Donald Trump, which were backed by hard evidence. We knew that the polls in that cycle were probably underestimating the number of people with a college degree. We thought that undecided voters were prone to switching, and there was real evidence that you could look at after the election that suggested that this could explain why most of why the polls underestimated Donald Trump, and therefore, why we could be pretty confident that we could do well in the future, provided that we represented people without a college degree in the numbers that we wish we had.

As a consequence, we went out and we did 100 polls in 2018. That was a reflection of the level of confidence that we had, that despite what we saw in 2016, that there were real credible paths to being accurate in the future, and that we didn’t think it represented some sort of lasting issue. And I can’t say the same thing after 2020. There are, at the end of the day, no really strong theories backed by hard evidence that explain why the polls were wrong in 2020 and offered us a path to doing something different, or, alternately, to be sure that it wouldn’t happen next time.

In polling, when you can’t come up with a strong theory to explain what went wrong, you usually fall back on this diagnosis of exclusion — nonresponse bias. There’s this idea that if everything we did looks right, but we didn’t get the answer we wish we did, there must be some reason why the people who backed Donald Trump were still underrepresented in our surveys, and it was probably just that they’re less likely to respond than demographically similar Biden voters. So even if, say, you had the right number of white working-class voters, you didn’t have the right number of white working-class Trump voters.

I don’t think that’s what happened in 2016. I think in 2016, if you had the right number of white voters without a degree, you would’ve come way closer to the result than you would’ve in 2020. So there’s something extra going on in 2020 that’s still not fully explained. One possibility, and I think this is the most optimistic one for the survey industry, is that it’s about COVID , that all these liberals were staying home and taking polls, while Republicans were out living their lives. We know that the coronavirus had different effects on the behavior of Democrats and Republicans — we can see that in the vaccine numbers. Why couldn’t it be the case that we were just systematically getting more people who were concerned about COVID, who were staying indoors, and consequently, that our polls had too many Biden voters controlling for all the demographic traits we try to adjust for?

Yeah, you’ve said that your numbers were more accurate in 2019. The 2019 polls were great, and our 2022 polls were as well. But it’s also worth noting that there are more pessimistic possibilities as well. Perhaps Trump voters are just so distrustful of the media and institutions that they’re just systematically less likely to respond than Biden voters among the same demographic group — that’s a real possibility too.

Not only is it that Trump supporters are less likely to respond to surveys than Biden supporters, but they’re overwhelmingly concentrated among the kinds of people who don’t show up in midterm elections. That’s another theory that I think you could argue that would sort of square all of the various data points. I think that’s conceivable. One interesting thing I could note in this respect is that our polls right now show Donald Trump doing really well among disengaged voters. That was the whole start of this conversation. That wasn’t true in 2020. Is it possible that Trump was similarly strong among these voters in 2020, and that’s who we were missing? I don’t know. I don’t know that that’s not true. The 2020 polling was so bad that it’s hard to rule out anything about it. But it’s just an example of how the introduction of this uncertainty about the way polls are handling these presidential-year voters makes it harder to be confident in what we’re measuring sometimes.

I appreciate the transparency and lack of confidence. It goes to this whole larger discussion about polling that makes people crazy, especially in the internet era. I feel like every four years, there’s this ongoing and kind of tiresome debate where someone asserts that polling is fundamentally broken, and then the pollsters respond, “Actually, the polling errors aren’t as bad 40 years ago.” Are you tired of that conversation? And are people expecting too much here? This is an unclear question.  It is an unclear question. I sympathize with all of the various emotions that went into it, though. In some respects, it’s a miracle how good polling is. It is so hard to talk to people, and the response rates of telephone surveys can be one percent. And I know that I just spent all this time talking about how bad the 2020 polls were, and they’re bad by the standards that we need in our era of fairly close and competitive elections. But it is true that they weren’t horrible for many purposes. The polls overestimated Joe Biden nationwide, by about four points on the margin, which is to say the difference between Trump and Biden. So Biden was at plus eight and a half, as opposed to Biden plus four and a half. But that’s two points off on the percentage for the two candidates: Biden at 52 percent as opposed to 54 percent. A two-point difference on 95 percent of questions that we ask is entirely tolerable.

Does it make a difference whether 72 or 74 percent of Americans think Biden is just too old to be an effective president? That’s substantively the same. So polls are actually still pretty darn good for lots of things, but they are inherently imprecise. And we live in this era of close elections, where the level of precision that polls offer may not be sufficient to tell, at least to readers, what they really want to know, which is just: Who’s going to win? And in 1988, and in 1984, and in 1996, the polls could tell you who was going to win, because Reagan and Bush were up double digits in the final month of the race. And frankly, if Trump is up double digits in the final month of this race, he’s probably going to win. But the odds are that our polls will not show him with such a large lead — they don’t do so now — and consequently, we’ll go into Election Day knowing full well that either candidate will probably win.

The other difference now is that there’s the internet, and every piece of data is digested and spit out so quickly. The panic that has greeted your recent polls from Democrats, pundits, and otherwise — and I include myself here — is quite something. Does it always surprise you how exercised people get?  Yeah. I remember our November 2019 polls , which showed Biden narrowly ahead and Elizabeth Warren losing.

That one helped tank Warren’s campaign, I think, because she was doing so poorly compared to everyone else. I did not think that Elizabeth Warren was on a path to win personally, but I certainly did not help her. Of all the polls we’ve ever done, I feel like that’s the one where the response was just completely beyond anything that I had expected, and maybe that was naïve of me. But it is extraordinary how much attention the polls get. In some sense, it’s merited. If you look at how our polls have done compared to others, it really is pretty remarkable how well we’ve done in a way that doesn’t seem sustainable. It’s hard to believe, over the long run, that if you average our poll against all other polls that we’re going to win, but it’s true up to this point.

But I think that it really reflects much more people’s interest in who’s going to win the election, not some considered view of just how much better our poll is or something. And I’m not sure that is healthy. As we said at the beginning, (a) we’re still six months out, and (b) even at the end of the race, it’ll probably be so close that either candidate can win. People are obsessed with our polls, and not just our polls, but all the polls, in hopes that we will be able to answer a question that, in all likelihood, we can’t. And maybe even worse than that: People sometimes do think we’re answering that question even when we’re not, and we can’t.

I also just wonder what the alternative is. There’s no better method of analyzing what’s happening in the election, I think. There’s no real substitute.

I guess we could have fewer polls, or none at all. If we didn’t have polls, I think we know what we would get. We would get information based on partisan polls, filtered through the campaigns and campaign committees and party committees and so on, and they would tell us a similar story. Or it would be based on on-the-ground reporting. I actually think that economics coverage is probably the best analogy to what the world without polls would look like. Like politics, economics is fundamentally a social-science problem. Economics coverage solves this problem through survey research. The jobs report is a poll.

I didn’t quite realize that, actually. The jobs report is a great poll; it’s a Census-funded poll, but it’s a poll. We don’t have the equivalent of that in politics. There is no federally funded political survey. And so we basically are stepping in as the New York Times , and other media organizations do the same, to provide what the government provides in economics. It’s hard to imagine what it would be like to talk about the economy without having a jobs report. And, similarly, it’s very hard to understand how we would talk about the electorate without surveys.

It would probably be the old cliché about yard signs — anecdotal stuff. Yeah. And you can imagine the same thing for the economy perhaps, that people would go and talk to the person running some shop on Main Street in suburban New York somewhere, and then someone would have a different conflicting report from someone running a different kind of shop in New Mexico, and it would be a total mess. We wouldn’t have any idea.

This all plays into something I’m also curious about, which is the New York Times ’ treatment of your polls. You started the poll in 2016. And since then, the paper has made them into more and more of an event, where the readers get a write-up of the actual findings with the top-line numbers, which gets sent out as a “breaking news” alert. And then there’s all these follow-up articles for five, seven days afterward reporting on the poll’s sub-findings, some of them written by you, some by others. And then the numbers from the poll are cited again and again in more articles by Times reporters. I’ve always been impressed about how careful you are in your write-ups to say, “Hey, here are all the caveats. Here’s what I found. Here’s how we did it. And it might be wrong.” But I sometimes wonder about the Times ’ presentation of all this stuff, as if it’s like, “Here’s the news.” And it’s actually polls.  Yeah. There’s a real tension between the thing I just told you, which is that polling is this inherently imprecise instrument — probably better than anything else, but still imperfect — and an organization like the New York Times , which is accustomed to writing up its articles as its objective truth.

Exactly. And a New York Times –Siena is not an objective truth, it’s not the Census. And by the way, the Census in the jobs report isn’t objective truth either — they revise them every month.

But it’s not in that tier of survey, either. That’s a really hard needle to thread. And we’ve tried a lot of different ways over the years to try and thread the needle of “How do we both relay what we think is the best information that probably exists on the electorate and also make it clear to people that it could be wrong, that it’s subject to all these sources of error?”

And there are lots of things that we’ve done in this space that I think were somewhat promising. We have tried to show the margins of error. Like, even this most recent poll, you could see that there was a little band around each of the numbers that was supposed to indicate that there’s this fuzziness around our estimates. We’ve done something called “live polling” before, where we showed people every call we made and every response. As a consequence, people can see that most people weren’t responding, which in some way communicated the imperfection of it, even in the moment.

We try to report different turnout scenarios. All of these things — they don’t solve the ultimate problem, which is that we still have to figure out how to write up a New York Times survey result for the public, even though we know it’s not perfect. That’s a really hard problem that I don’t think we’ve had luck in solving. At the same time, we do have to write it up. These polls are really expensive, they do contain a wealth of information, and very little of what we’ve found we couldn’t print. I’m not saying that every article is perfect, and I know sometimes it’s a weeklong event, but that seventh article that comes out usually still contains useful information that we couldn’t have realistically gotten after the first story.

No, I’m not saying it’s padded out in that way — more what you pointed out at the top, that there’s just fundamental tension between the Times as a news organ and its putting out the poll in the first place, even though it may be the best one. Yeah. For informational purposes, the findings are essentially true. When we blare that voters think Biden is too old to be president , that’s a finding that’s so far outside of any margin of error that we can be reasonably confident in it. I don’t know whether, if we have an absolutely perfect poll, like literal truth for a moment and we could basically conduct an election today, or simulate an election — I don’t know Donald Trump would be ahead or behind in the three midwestern battleground sites, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, that are reasonably close in our polling. It’s possible that with such a perfect poll that truly simulated the election, with the exact right people going into the voting room tomorrow, that Biden could take the lead.

I do have reasonable confidence that such a perfect poll, however, would contain a whole lot of very bad news for Joe Biden in terms of the public’s assessment of the economy, in terms of what they think about how he’s handling his job as president, favorability ratings, his strength among Black and Latino and young voters.

You can imagine that there could be a case where we put out a poll that says, “X result,” and it’s a news alert, it’s on the front page, it leads the home page, there’s a Daily episode about it. And then the very next day, another reputable poll says the exact opposite, and we then go and try and poll again in a few weeks, and we no longer find that either. That hasn’t happened this cycle. And that reflects, I think, that the way our articles are framed appreciates that we have to rely most heavily on the findings that are robust and resilient to survey error. There’s some element that we can’t escape, like who’s up or down in our poll, and that’s really hard. We really could do a poll again and now find Biden had a lead in Pennsylvania. That’s conceivable.

And then the news cycle would be totally different. It’d be like, “Oh, he’s back.”  Exactly. And one reason we do these six state battleground polls is because they offer extra layers of robustness to the overall finding. One state poll can bounce one way, but all six of them are a lot less likely to move around.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

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