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Impact of the 2010 Pakistan Floods on Rural and Urban Populations at Six Months

The 2010 Pakistan flood affected 20 million people. The impact of the event and recovery is measured at 6 months. Methods: Cross-sectional cluster survey of 1769 households conducted six months post-flood in 29 most-affected districts. The outcome measures were physical damage, flood-related death and illness and changes in income, access to electricity, clean water and sanitation facilities. Results: Households were headed by males, large and poor. The flood destroyed 54.8% of homes and caused 86.8% households to move, with 46.9% living in an IDP camp. Lack of electricity increased from 18.8% to 32.9% (p = 0.000), lack of toilet facilities from 29.0% to 40.4% (p=0.000). Access to protected water remained unchanged (96.8%); however, the sources changed (p=0.000). 88.0% reported loss of income (90.0% rural, 75.0% urban, p=0.000) with rural households loosing significantly more and less likely to recovered. Immediate deaths and injuries were uncommon but 77.0% reported flood-related illnesses. Significant differences were noted between urban and rural as well as gender and education of the head of houshold. Discussion: After 6 months, much of the population had not recovered their prior standard of living or access to services. Rural households were more commonly impacted and slower to recover. Targeting relief to high-risk populations including rural, female-headed and those with lower education is needed. Citation: Kirsch TD, Wadhwani C, Sauer L, Doocy S, Catlett C. Impact of the 2010 Pakistan Floods on Rural and Urban Populations at Six Months. PLOS Currents Disasters. 2012 Aug 22. doi: 10.1371/4fdfb212d2432.

Introduction

Natural disasters interfere with economy and destroy infrastructure, resulting in a disruption of livelihoods, normal services and health care. Floods can be particularly disruptive, leading to widespread collapse of infrastructure. They are the leading cause of deaths from natural disaster worldwide, with 6.8 million deaths in the 20 th century. Asia is the most flood-affected region, accounting for nearly 50% of flood-related fatalities in the last 25 years. 1 2 Floods and their impact are likely to increase in the future due to urbanization and land use changes, high concentrations of poor and marginalized populations, and a lack of regulations and preparedness efforts. 3

The 2010 Pakistan floods directly affected an estimated 14-20 million people, and killed over 1,700. Nearly 1.1 million homes were damaged or destroyed, and at least 436 health care facilities were destroyed. 4 The flooding lasted almost six months in some areas and caused $9.7 billion in damage 5 in forty-six of the country’s 135 districts. The impact on the rural economy, including agriculture crops, livestock, animal sheds, personal seed stocks, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, fisheries and forestry, was unprecedented. 6 Infrastructure losses were widespread including 2.9 million damaged households, of which 1.9 were severely affected or completely destroyed, and 80% of food reserves lost. 7

The general impact of floods has been previously described, but there is little information on the medium-term impact and recovery from flood events. The purpose of this study is to characterize the impact of the 2010 floods on the Pakistani people after six months of humanitarian interventions and the variables that affect recovery. This study explores how predictors such as education, income, family size, and rural versus urban location factor in to flood impact. Furthermore, change in income level and disruption of services (e.g., protected water sources, electricity, and toilet facilities) among the affected population was examined in order to better understand how this influenced post-flood living and household conditions in urban and rural settings.

A cross-sectional cluster survey of heads of households affected by the 2010 floods in Pakistan was conducted in January 2011. The Government of Pakistan and the World Bank identified four affected provinces (Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Sindh) with 29 districts designated as “severely” flood-affected.( The survey was focused on these priority districts. There were 80 clusters of 20 households each, with an additional oversample of 10 clusters in camp-based populations. Clusters were chosen based on the proportion of the affected population within provinces and again at the district level. Randomly generated GIS coordinates were then chosen as starting points for each cluster within the most severely-affected tehsils (counties) or union councils (sub-counties). 8 Three selected clusters were found to be inaccessible due to security concerns or snow-blocked roads and so were re-randomized within the same affected district. The ten camp-based clusters were added to account for the difficulty of randomly selecting these small geographic areas. These ten clusters were distributed on a population proportional basis from an official list of current camps and the size of their registered populations.

A household was defined as a group of people that live in the same living quarters and share meals, regardless of biological relation. The first household in each cluster was identified as the nearest to the GIS point. In rural areas the next nearest house was chosen until all 20 households were surveyed. In urban and camp settings with dense populations, each 5 th house was sampled. Households were eligible for the survey if they had been affected by the flood (economic, health or physical damage), if an adult member (>18 years) was present, and if they agreed to participate. If a household was not eligible or not inhabited at the time of the survey, the next closest household was approached.

The sample size was based on the objectives of characterizing the impact of the floods on rural and urban households’ social, economic and health status. The nearly 1800 households allowed for a detection of a ≥6.25% difference in prevalence rates (based on the most conservative prevalence of 50%) after adjusting for a design effect of 1.5 for the cluster sample design. Changes to income level and access to services such as electricity, protected water sources, and toilet facilities were the primary outcome variables of interest.

Data analyses were conducted on STATA version 11 software (STATACorp LP, College Station, Texas). Descriptive statistics and summary measures for each group were calculated, and comparisons were drawn using standard tests (chi square) for statistical significance. The Johns Hopkins School of Public Health Institutional Review Board and the Pakistan Ministry of Health approved the survey. Voluntary informed consent was sought from all survey participants.

Pre-Flood Living Conditions

A total of 1,769 households were included, representing 14,506 people with 87.0% living in a rural setting prior to the flooding. The demographics of the households in our survey closely matched national Pakistani statistics. 9 The average household size was 8.1 (8.2 for urban, 7.6 rural, p=0.001). Half (50.6%) of household members were under 18 years, while 5.0% were over 60 years. The head of household (HOH) was a male in 96.2% of homes, with an average HOH age of 46.4 years (range 18-96). Household members were more likely to have completed at least primary school education than the HOH (54.1% vs. 34.6%, p=0.00). Urban households had significantly higher education at all levels than rural (p=0.00). Households’ monthly income averaged less than 10,000 Rupees (about $112 USD). Urban populations were more likely to earn less than 5,000 Rupees per month (31.0% vs. 21.8%, p= 0.00).

Mud brick was the most common material for the walls (79.4% overall; 56.2% urban vs. 82.9% rural, p=0.00) and floors (83.7%; 68.1% urban vs. 85.1% rural, p=0.00). While 40.6% of roofs were also made of mud or mud brick (19.7% urban vs. 42.2% rural, p=0.00), cement, wood, and other materials were also used. Prior to the floods, electricity was available to 81.2% of households (88.6% urban vs. 80.1% rural, p=0.001), primarily from power lines. 71.0% of households had access to some type of toilet facility (67.4% urban vs. 71.5% rural, p=0.00). Almost all households (91.8%) had access to a protected water source (87.7% urban vs. 92.5% rural, p=0.00).

Impact of the Flooding

Physical damage from the floods was widespread, with 54.8% of households reporting damage to their homes. Over half (54.8%) of these were damaged beyond repair, 28.8% had significant but reparable damage, 10.9% minor but livable damage, and 5.6% with minimal damage. The average household size did not change after the floods in either the rural (7.6 to 7.5, p=0.08) or urban setting (8.2 to 8.0, p=0.14), with 80.4% of households having fewer than 10 members, 18.6% of household with 11-20 members, and 1.1% of household with over 21 members (p=0.57). The floods also caused 86.8% of households (76.9% urban vs. 88.3% rural, p=0.00) to leave their homes for 2 or more weeks. At some point during the six months since the flood, 46.9% had lived in an internally displaced person (IDP) camp (44.0% urban vs. 47.3% rural, p=0.41). Most households (64.5%) stayed in only one place during the 6 months, but 34.5% moved at least once, 21.1% twice, 9.9% 3 times, and 4.5% moved to 4 or more locations. Migration from the home district to a different geographic location was less common (12.6% urban vs. 18.4% rural, p=0.00). At the time of the survey, 51.9% of rural households had returned to their home, compared to 73.9% of urban households (p=0.00).

Table 1 assesses infrastructure by comparing access to utilities for rural and urban household pre- and post-flood. At the time of the survey, the number of households with no access to electricity had increased from 18.8% to 32.9% (p = 0.00). Lack of electricity doubled in both urban and rural areas. The percent of households who did not have access to any toilet facilities increased from 29.0% to 40.4% (p=0.000), but the increase was greater for rural households. The access to protected water after the floods remained unchanged (96.8% before vs. 96.7% after, p=0.00); however, the water source changed significantly in both settings (p=0.00).

Table 1: Utility Access, Before and Six Months after Floods in Urban and Rural, Pakistan 2010

The flood adversely affected the income of 88.0% of households (90.0% rural, 75.0% urban, p=0.00). The average reported household monthly income dropped from less than 10,000 Rupees per month to less than 5,000 Rupees (about $56 USD). Rural households were more likely to report a monthly salary less than 5,000 Rupees than urban (75.2% vs. 73.1%, p=0.00). Of those households that reported a loss of income, 55.5% stated that their livelihoods or income generation had not returned back to normal after six months and that recovery was expected to be more than an additional year (57.1% rural, urban 42.5, p=0.004). 24.8% of households did not expect to ever recover from income losses.

While injuries and deaths directly related to the floods were rare, health effects were common. Only 0.5% of households reported a flood-related household member injury, and only 0.5% reported a flood-related death. Deaths were significantly more likely in urban households (p=0.02). During the six months post-flood, however, 77.0% of households (71.1% urban vs. 76.5% rural, p=0.02) reported having a member with a health problem, 76.8% of these thought by survey participants to be related to the floods. Urban households reported more flood-related health problems than rural (80.1% vs. 76.5%, p=0.01).

Table 2 assesses variables that predict recovery of services at 6 months. The age of the HOH did not change access to electricity, clean water or toilet facilities. The education level of the HOH did have an impact of access: households headed by a person with primary school education or greater were more likely to have had a return to pre-flood access to electricity and sanitation services, but not clean water. An increased likelihood of access to toilet facilities was also predicted by the gender of the HOH and for households with less than 15 members.

Table 2: Access to Utilities at Six Months, Controlling for Household Variables, Pakistan 2010

The 2010 Pakistan floods affected as many as 20 million people. Flood waters receded in Balochistan and KPK within days, and after several weeks in Punjab, but months in some areas of Sindh. At the time of this survey there were still four districts of Sindh and one in Punjab with flooded union councils. There was widespread infrastructure damage with resultant loss of housing and services such as electricity, water and sanitation. The economic impact of the floods was also widespread, and our survey demonstrates that even after 6 months much of the population have made limited progress towards their prior standard of living and access to services. Previous reports have looked at specific health-related effects of the 2010 Pakistan floods including infectious diseases, malnutrition 12 , malaria 13 , cholera and other water born diseases 14 ; however, to our knowledge none have explored the overall household impact of the floods, the variance and magnitude of the impact between urban and rural settings, or the recovery from the impact at six-months.

The flood caused relatively few direct deaths (1/10,000 affected) and injuries considering, but indirect and long-term health problems were widespread, with 77% of households reporting flood-related injuries or illnesses. These findings are similar to 2005 post-earthquake health needs in Pakistan when 68% of elderly people in rural areas experienced an overall worsening of health 15 , but our percentage is higher than the injuries and illnesses reported by 31% of households after floods in Nepal in 2009. 16

The extensive damage to homes, economy and infrastructure identified in our study is consistent with reports on the impact of floods in Nepal in 2008 19 . However, the widespread damage in Pakistan did not lead to as much distant migration; while nearly 90% of households were forced to leave their homes, and a third moved at least twice, less than 20% moved away from their original geographic region. Only half of the affected households lived in an organized camp at any time since the flood, which would suggest that alternative sites such as other family members’ homes may have been used. However, we found that the average size of both urban and rural households changed minimally at 6 months, contrary to prior reports, where floods and other disasters have been shown to cause a change in household size. 17

There has been limited research on the differential effects of disasters in rural vs. urban populations. 18 20 Our study demonstrates significantly worse impact and a slower recovery for rural settings after the flood, including greater impact on their income, sanitation and electricity supply and less frequent economic recovery at six months. Rural households were also more likely to have moved to an entirely different geographic area and less likely to have been able to return to their original home after six months. Rural areas are more difficult to target in a disaster response because of the dispersed nature of the population, but in Pakistan rural households accounted for almost 90% of the total affected. Rural families need increased resources and targeted programs by national and international humanitarian and disaster response agencies.

Economic and infrastructure recovery had been limited at the time of the survey. The education level of a head of household was the most predictive variable for a return to pre-flood access to electricity and sanitation services. This was not significant for clean water, most likely due to the almost universal return of water supplies after the floods (92%). Access to toilet facilities (private or public) was improved by having a male HOH, an HOH with at least a primary school education, and a smaller family. Rural families were less likely to be headed by a person with any formal education, which could contribute to their slower recovery.

Limitations

There are a number of study limitations. Difficulties in selecting small geographical areas required an oversampling of the IDPs, but accurate populations and proportions could not be ascertained. This may have led to results favoring camp-based populations. This study was conducted six months after the2010 floods. Respondents may have suffered from recall bias related to acute post-disaster experiences, affecting the accuracy of survey responses. Finally, survivor bias may have also been present in the research study. Only houses with surviving adult members were sampled and interviewed. So undercounting would occur if households completely moved out of the area because they would not have been selected.

Conclusions

Our study identifies the ongoing impact of the 2010 floods on the Pakistani people at 6 months post-disaster and demonstrates the disproportionate and longer-term impact of the flooding on the rural population. It also reaffirms that the less-educated are more likely to suffer the impacts of a disaster. The population’s recovery to pre-flood development has been very slow, with limited improvement at six months. Important lessons learned from this survey are the need to target more vulnerable households, especially those with less education, for additional relief resources. More importantly there is a need to direct relief efforts towards the rural population. This is a more difficult strategy and will require more coordination nationally and locally. Further studies are suggested regarding the link increased illness and rate of recovery in an affected population and the access to clean water and sanitation services.

Biographies

Associate Professor Department of Emergency Medicine Department of International Health The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health

Affiliation: Department of International Health, The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Funding Statement

Funding for this project was provided by the Johnson and Johnson Foundation, the World Health Organization and the Advisory Committee of the Center for Refugee and Disaster Response. The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Case Study - 2010 Pakistan floods

GloFAS demonstrated its potential by detecting a number of flooding events of the past 3 year in major world rivers, with forecast lead time often larger than 10 days A striking example is that of the severe floods that hit Pakistan in summer of 2010, triggered by exceptional monsoon rain beginning at the end of July. The flooding covered approximately one-fifth of the total land area of Pakistan, directly affecting about 20 million and causing a death toll close to 2000 people. On that occasion, forecasts on 28 July 2010 showed probabilities up to 100% of exceeding the severe alert level (i.e., 20 yr return period) in most of the Indus River basin, with peak flow traveling downstream in the first half of August 2010.

pakistan 2010 flood case study

20-day ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) on 28 July 2010

It shows a 20-day ensemble streamflow prediction for a dynamic reporting point in the Indus River, few kilometers downstream the city of Sukkur, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Forecasts show a sharp rise of discharge in the river, with expected peak of the ensemble mean on the 10 August, hence 13 days after the prediction was issued. The uncertainty range increases with the lead time, though it almost completely exceeds the severe alert level from the 8 to the 12 August.

pakistan 2010 flood case study

Satellite images of the Indus River

Satellite images of the Indus River on 10 July 2010 (top) and on 11 August 2010 (bottom). Top panel also shows, with purple shadings, the maximum probability of exceeding the severe threshold in a 20-day forecast range (forecast on 28 July 2010).

Read more about the case study

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F. GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood forecasting Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

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2010 pakistan floods response - final evaluation report.

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In July and August 2010, Pakistan experienced its worst flooding in living memory. Four provinces, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan were hit hard. An estimated 2000 people died and 14-18 million more were left in desperate need of assistance. The members of the Humanitarian Coalition (HC), a network of Canadian NGOs determined to unite in cases of humanitarian crises, began life-saving responses almost immediately. The HC launched a joint national appeal to raise awareness about the disaster and rally Canadians to support the disaster.

The members of the HC are currently: CARE Canada, Oxfam Canada, Oxfam-Québec, Plan Canada and Save the Children Canada. Although Plan Canada was not yet a member at the time of the Pakistan disaster, Plan was engaged in emergency response there and has therefore been included in this report.

The objective of coordination was to avoid duplication in aid activities. Important elements such as coverage, vulnerability analysis and targeting, accountability to beneficiaries and standardization of the assistance were not addressed through formal coordination. HC members appeared to be more coordinated within donor-imposed consortia in which agencies worked closely together sharing a common logical framework, objectives, delivery and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) modalities.

In order to ensure emergency response programs are as effective as possible, and to uphold the HC’s commitment to accountability and transparency, evaluations of the members’ response programs have been conducted. The first, a short-term Real Time Review, was conducted in February 2011. This was followed by a comprehensive evaluation in November 2011. This report presents the findings and recommendations of those evaluations.

This evaluation was conducted according to the HC Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) framework. Two teams with staff from the member organizations and accompanied by an impartial consultant interviewed beneficiaries, partners and HC members’ staff in KPK, the Punjab, Sindh and Islamabad. Interviews with key informants and response documentation completed the evaluation. CARE, Oxfam Great Britain, Oxfam Novib, Plan Pakistan and Save the Children participated in the evaluation.

Considering the scale of the disaster and the complex Pakistan security environment, the HC members have made tremendous efforts to respond effectively. The HC members focused on their ability to deliver assistance, the establishment of effective monitoring and evaluation systems, the attention paid to beneficiary-oriented accountability, and applying lessons learned from evaluations and feedback.

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Heavy Rains and Dry Lands Don’t Mix: Reflections on the 2010 Pakistan Flood

Each summer, monsoon rains sweep across southwestern Asia, soaking India and Bangladesh. In nearby Pakistan, the rains are usually less intense, more intermittent, and centered in the northeast.

Photograph of a family escaping the floods in northwestern Pakistan by boat.

Flooding forced millions of Pakistanis to flee their homes in July and August 2010. ( Photograph ©2010 Abdul Majeed Goraya/ IRIN. )

The summer of 2010 was different. In July and August, rain fell over most of Pakistan and persisted in some places for weeks. The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported nationwide rain totals 70 percent above normal in July and 102 percent above normal in August.

Rivers rose rapidly, and the Indus and its tributaries in the northern part of the country soon pushed over their banks. As the surge of water moved south, it swelled the Indus in Pakistan’s central and southern provinces. Then the problems started compounding. In Sindh, a dam failure sent the river streaming down an alternative channel west of the valley. The resulting floodwater lake—which merged with existing Manchhar Lake—spread over hundreds of square kilometers.

Map of the total extent of flooding in Pakistan during 2010.

Floods covered at least 37,280 square kilometers (14,390 square miles) of Pakistan at some time between July 28 and September 16, 2010. Relief agencies used maps derived from satellite data to direct aid to many of the victims and to plan recovery efforts. (Map by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using data from UNOSAT. )

Even after the monsoon rains subsided, waters retreated much more slowly than they had advanced. Months after the rains stopped, crops, homes, businesses, and entire towns were still submerged. In some places, there were few means of water dispersal beyond waiting for it to evaporate.

The U.S. Agency for International Development estimates that the Pakistan floods affected more than 18 million people, caused 1,985 deaths, and damaged or destroyed 1.7 million houses. It was perhaps the worst flood in Pakistan’s modern history.

Relentless Rain

The Asian monsoon is one of the world’s most studied weather patterns. Sunlight warms the land surfaces of Central Asia, and the warm surface air rises into the atmosphere. This updraft draws in cooler, moister air from over the Indian Ocean. The Himalayas supercharge this convection process by blocking air masses from migrating into central Asia. Instead, the moist air masses rise, cool, and condense the water into rain.

In 2010, this pattern went awry over Pakistan. Over and over again, the rainstorms dwarfed the heaviest rainfall events from the previous, more typical summer. July rainfall in Peshawar, for instance, was up 772 percent from normal, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department. August rainfall in Khanpur was up 1,483 percent.

Maps of rainfall anomaly in Pakistan, July and August 2010.

The 2010 floods in Pakistan were caused by extremely high rainfall in the Indus River watershed during July and August. These maps show the satellite estimates of the difference in rainfall between 2010 and the long-term average for the region. (Maps by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, using data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. )

The relentless rain had a handful of causes. For one, the global La Niña event—which drenched Australia and other Pacific and Indian Ocean locations in late 2010 and early 2011—actually started around the time of the 2010 monsoon. La Niña warms both water and air masses, increasing the amount of moisture that can be carried in the atmosphere.

While La Niña increased the chance of rain events, it did not necessarily increase the intensity and unusual persistence. Instead, some meteorologists speculated in late 2010 that the jet stream might have set the stage for floods in Pakistan, as well as the summer of drought and fire in Russia. Some noted in science meetings that the jet stream had taken on an unusual pattern, stretching down over the Eurasian continent and stagnating the weather patterns.

Satellite images of water vapor and clouds over Russia and Pakistan, July 31, 2010.

A long-lived high-pressure system north of the Black Sea trapped hot air over Russia in 2010, and triggered heavy rainfall over Pakistan. This image shows water vapor in the atmosphere (left) and thermal infrared emissions of the Earth (right). Water is bright in the left image; on the right, dark areas are hot (desert in mid-day) and cold areas (cloud tops) are white. The animation shows the interaction between high-level flow of water vapor and the dynamics of clouds. (NASA image by Robert Simmon, using data ©2010 EUMETSAT. )

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In a subsequent study (in press) using NASA satellite data, scientists William Lau and Kyu-Myong Kim of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center found a connection between the wildfires and floods. The Russian heat wave and wildfires were associated with a large-scale, stagnant weather pattern in the atmosphere—known as a blocking event—that prevented the normal movement of weather systems from west to east. Hot, dry air masses became trapped over large parts of Russia.

The blocking also created unusual downstream vortices and wind patterns. Clockwise atmospheric circulation near the surface brought cold, dry Siberian air into the subtropics, where it clashed with the warm, moist air being transported northward with the monsoon flow. The result was torrential rain in northern Pakistan.

Although the heat wave started before the floods, both events attained maximum strength at approximately the same time. Lau’s team concluded that Pakistan’s floods were triggered by the southward penetration of upper level disturbances from the atmospheric blocking, and amplified by heating and monsoon moisture from the Bay of Bengal. La Niña conditions made the tropics more receptive by providing abundant moisture.

Map of 500 millibar isobar height anomaly from July 25 through August 8, 2010.

The high pressure system over Russia was a type of blocking event, a persistent pattern in the jet stream. This map shows areas of relatively high pressure (red) and low pressure (blue) from July 25 to August 8, 2010. The map data were derived from a reanalysis—estimates of meteorological data based on a blend of actual measurements and computer models. (Map by Jesse Allen and Mike Bosilovich, using data from MERRA. )

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Most of the time Pakistan usually suffers from too little water, not too much. So were the 2010 floods a sign of things to come?

“One event by itself is not evidence of a long-term shift,” says Peter Clift, a geologist from the University of Aberdeen (Scotland) who has studied the Indian monsoon. “Floods have happened in the past without global warming.”

Still, a longer, stormier monsoon season may be part of Pakistan’s future, if current climate predictions hold true.

Human Factors

The heavy, persistent rain would have been a challenge for Pakistanis under any circumstance. Human activities, however, probably made them worse than nature alone could have.

Vegetation naturally reduces the risk of flooding by soaking up precipitation, so almost every time humans remove trees, shrubs, and plants from the landscape, they increase the risk of floods. Decades of deforestation in Pakistan, (PDF) particularly in the Swat Valley, have left the landscape less able to absorb moisture.

Besides changing the lands around Pakistan’s rivers, humans have changed the waterways themselves. Most of the water in the upper Indus River basin runs down from glaciers in the Himalaya and Karakoram mountain ranges. Since the flow is not always sufficient to meet the needs of people downstream, dams, levees, and channels have been built to divert water for irrigation and to hold on to the sparse precipitation that the region usually receives.

Photograph of flooded fields surrounding a Pakistani village near the Pano Aquil air base.

Construction—including dams, roads, and canals—can divert water from its natural path. This can exacerbate flooding, or cause water to pool in areas without an outlet, sometimes for months. ( Photograph courtesy Defense Video & Imagery Distribution System. )

Kuntala Lahiri-Dutt, a social geographer at the Australian National University, notes that while many of the diversions from the Indus River probably date back to the British colonial days, increasing amounts of river water have been diverted for irrigation in recent decades. Many property owners also have erected their own embankments and levees in the name of flood protection.

The majority of this irrigation infrastructure has not necessarily been well maintained over the years, says Dath Mita of the U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service. “The Pakistan irrigation and levee system is very extensive—not just large structures lined with concrete, but also channels that farmers have dug on their own land,” he says. “A system like that needs sustained maintenance, and because of accumulation of silt deposits over the years, the channels probably had a lower capacity to move water.”

As Lahiri-Dutt wrote in September 2010:

Each human interference into a natural river system has its consequence: when excessive amounts of water are drawn out of its channel, a river channel becomes less efficient and loses its ability to quickly move the water. When levees are built along the banks, the sediments get deposited on the riverbed, which gradually rises above the surrounding plains. Not only does this enhance the flood risk, the levees standing as walls also make it difficult for the floodwater to return back into the channel once it has spilled over.

Hence, there were manmade bottlenecks where water could pool whether people wanted it or not, notes Clift. In 2010, structures that were initially ineffective in containing the surge of rainwater eventually turned out to be very effective at holding it in the wrong places.

Satellite image of Pakistani floods from September 4, 2010.

Some parts of Pakistan remained under water for months after the rains subsided. These false-color satellite images show flood water (blue) in western Sindh province in September 2010, November 2010, and January 2011. It is apparent that roads and other infrastructure constrained the flow of flood water. (NASA images by Robert Simmon, using data from Landsat 5. )

“Flooding this severe would be hard for anybody to manage,” Clift adds. “The grim reality is that, over the long term, Pakistan is a really dry place. Most of the time, they need that water infrastructure.”

Indeed, as flooding swamped areas along the Indus River, dust storms blew through the western reaches of Pakistan and in Afghanistan.

The Aftermath

The effects of the 2010 monsoon season in Pakistan were both immediate and lasting. Waterborne diseases such as cholera menaced flood survivors, while stagnant pools of water provided the perfect breeding conditions for malaria-carrying mosquitoes. Crowded relief camps and poor sanitation helped spread diseases such as measles.

pakistan 2010 flood case study

Flood waters in Pakistan’s Sindh Province had not fully receded as late as December 2010. Some refugees had nowhere to go, so they camped by their inundated fields. ( Photograph ©2010 UK Department for International Development/Russell Watkins.)

David Petley, a landslide specialist from Durham University (U.K), was already keeping an eye on the Hunza landslide when the monsoon rains provoked him to start chronicling Pakistan’s unusual monsoon.

“It is hard to remember a previous flood that has caused this type of impact over such a long period, including the way it prevented replanting and reconstruction,” Petley states. Early news reports described the floods as Pakistan’s worst since 1929, “but this event was worse by almost every measure.”

In some parts of Pakistan, especially Sindh Province, flood waters lingered for months on some of the country’s best farmland. The standing water and excess soil moisture had good and bad consequences.

Pakistan has two main growing seasons, with farmers typically growing cotton and rice from May to November (Kharif season) and wheat from November to May (Rabi season). According to estimates by the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, almost 10 percent of the country’s cotton crop was flooded, as was about one-fifth of the rice crop. The excessively wet conditions also delayed the planting of wheat in some areas, but Pakistani farmers were able to extend cotton harvesting later in the growing season.

pakistan 2010 flood case study

In areas where the floods receded, Pakistanis were quick to plant crops. These rice fields in Sindh Province were almost ready for harvest on December 7, 2010. ( Photograph ©2010 UK Department for International Development/Russell Watkins.)

“The good news is that Pakistan’s staple food is wheat, and by the time the serious flood events occurred, the harvest was complete and the majority of the grain was in storage,” says Mita. This lessens the blow to national food security. “Rice is a big crop, but it’s mostly for export.” He expects the excess moisture will benefit the next wheat crop, which is heavily dependent on irrigation.

Petley notes that for many flood victims, the worst consequence was the loss of livestock, “a major asset and the source of everything from milk to biogas to the power to pull a plow.”

He also worries about where flood survivors will find materials to rebuild. The United Nations, international agencies, and the Pakistan government have rebuilt some roads and bridges and have constructed roughly 40,000 shelters for some of Pakistan’s most vulnerable victims. But in many cases, citizens scrambling to build rudimentary shelter were forced to use inferior materials, meaning they now live in houses even more vulnerable to disaster.

In early 2011, flood waters had receded considerably, though some areas remained submerged. In March, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that standing water prevented many families from returning to their homes in parts of Sindh and Balochistan Provinces. Even in places where waters had completely receded, people returned not to homes and fields, but to places where those things used to be.

The losses left children especially vulnerable. In February 2011, UNICEF helicopters delivered clothes, blankets, and nutritional supplements to northwestern Pakistan amid harsh winter conditions, as damage from the 2010 flood and the 2005 earthquake had left many areas inaccessible by any other means. Meanwhile, the World Food Programme delivered food to an estimated 4.4 million people in January and February 2011, including nearly 40,000 malnourished children and pregnant or nursing mothers.

Photograph of sand deposits from historical flooding on the Indus River.

Although the 2010 floods in Pakistan were an unprecedented human tragedy, floods of similar extent have occurred in the past along the Indus. This photograph shows sand deposited by previous monsoon floods near Thatta, in southern Pakistan. (Photograph ©2004 Peter Clift, University of Aberdeen.)

Massive floods may seem rare on human time scales, but not on the geological calendar, notes Clift. He has studied the Asian monsoon and its history near the Indus, where he has uncovered buried layers of sandy sediment that was deposited by ancient floods. “We know that floods are not really common,” he notes, “but they’re not completely unusual either.”

“Still, I’ve not seen anything like this.”

  • Abouzeid, R., Mohammad, H.J. (2010, December 9). Four months later, Pakistan still suffers from flooding. Time. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • Agence France-Presse. (2010, November 12). Up to six more months of Pakistan flood water: EU official. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • Ali, T., Shahbaz, B., Suleri, A. (2006). Analysis of myths and realities of deforestation in Northwest Pakistan: Implications for forestry extension. International Journal of Agriculture and Biology, 8(1), 107–110.
  • Allbritton, C. (2011, January 26). Pakistan’s Sindh province faces acute hunger: UNICEF AlertNet. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • BBC. (2010, August 2). “2.5m people affected” by Pakistan floods officials say. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • CBS News. (2010,August 15). U.N. Chief: Pakistan floods the worst I’ve seen. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • Climate Data Processing Centre, Pakistan Meteorological Department. (2010, August 31). Pakistan’s monsoon 2010 update.
  • Encyclopedia of the Nations. (n.d.) Pakistan – agriculture. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • International Development Research Centre. (2001, May 11). Forecasting water flows in Pakistan’s Indus River. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • Lahiri-Dutt, K. (2010, September 6). Special essay: Pakistan floods. Global Water Forum. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center. (2010, December 14). Flooding in Pakistan caused by higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2010, September 3). The Russian heat wave of 2010. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • Tarquis, A.M., Gobin, A., Semenov, M.A. (2010). Preface. Climate Research, 44(1), 1–2.
  • United Nations Integrated Regional Information Networks. (2010, November 24). Pakistan: Measles takes toll on flood victims. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • United Nations Integrated Regional Information Networks. (2010, November 25). Pakistan: Flood survivors determined to help themselves. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • United Nations Integrated Regional Information Networks. (2011, January 12). Pakistan: Shelter first or safety first? Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2010, September 17). Pakistan floods emergency response plan. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2010, September 17). Pakistan floods: Timeline of events. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • USAID. (2010, November 30). Pakistan – floods Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • Voice of America. (2011, January 26). Malnutrition plagues Pakistani children 6 months after floods. Accessed February 3, 2011.
  • World Health Organization. (2010, September 20). Floods in Pakistan: Pakistan health cluster, focus on malaria. Accessed February 3, 2011.

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Inundation: The Slow-Moving Crisis of Pakistan's 2010 Floods (A)

  • Crisis Management
  • Environment, Energy, and Agriculture
  • Government - International
  • Nonprofit and NGO

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Abstract: In summer 2010, unusually intense monsoon rains in Pakistan triggered slow-moving floods that inundated a fifth of the country and displaced millions of people. This case describes how Pakistan's government responded to this disaster and highlights the performance of the country's nascent emergency management agency, the National Disaster Management Authority. It also explores the integration of international assistance, with a particular focus on aid from the international humanitarian community and the U.S. military. Learning Objective: The case aims to teach students about disaster response in a complex environment involving a host of domestic and geopolitical issues. In particular, it exposes students to the challenges of relying on a nascent, under-resourced disaster management agency and of coordinating with the international humanitarian community. At the same time, it prompts students to consider the opportunities that can arise when two well-resourced institutions -- the U.S. and Pakistani military -- coordinate closely.

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  • Early Warning and Risk Analysis

Conflicts in the aftermath of the 2010 Pakistan floods

In August 2010, the Indus broke its levees in southern Punjab, leading to some of the worst flooding in almost a century. The aftermath was felt across Pakistan, and the floods revealed inequalities in flood protection and compensation. In southern Punjab, affected communities demonstrated against the government’s lack of adequate disaster response.

pakistan 2010 flood case study

Conceptual Model

Conflict history.

In August 2010, the Indus broke its levees in southern Punjab, leading to some of the worst flooding in almost a century. The floods affected over twenty million people, displacing at least ten million and led to the deaths of almost two thousand. The aftermath saw mass protests against the government and World Bank for what people perceived as poor flood risk prevention. In Punjab, clashes broke out as protests targeted those deemed responsible for their exposure to the disaster. Anti-elite sentiment and anti-government demonstrations persisted long after the floodwaters subsided and many protests took place throughout Pakistan, including in its capital, Islamabad.

Extremely destructive floods

The first half of 2010 was the warmest in Pakistan since records began. Unusually high glacial runoff pushed the rivers and levees to their limits. Combined with some of the heaviest monsoon rains in decades, the effect was intense flooding throughout the Indus River Basin in the provinces of Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkwa, Punjab and Sindh. The floods led to the death of almost two thousand people and, at their peak, covered one fifth of Pakistan's land mass ( Disasters Emergency Committee, 2015 ). The waters took many months to recede and the aftermath had lasting impacts on livelihoods. Many hectares of arable land were inundated (sometimes deliberately to distribute floodwaters) but while some farmers gained compensation for lost income, most of the rural population that were affected (often smallholders or landless farmers) were not compensated ( Budhani & Gazdar, 2011 ).

Inequalities and anti-elite sentiment in Punjab

In the months following the floods, community groups mobilised to articulate political demands to the government. They called for reduced inequalities between landed and landless people in terms of environmental protection and resource access ( Ahmad, 2018 ).

Some also accused the government and the World Bank of negligence. Upstream sediment deposition at the Taunsa Barrage was identified as a risk to the ability of dams to mitigate flood risks, which led the World Bank to fund a major redevelopment project to address the problem in 2005-2008. However, the necessary actions to raise levees did not take place, leaving people vulnerable to the extreme surges of water as seen in 2010 ( Ahmad, 2018 ; Gaadi, 2010 ).

Grievances also arose from the fact that flood levees had often been erected to protect the property of landed and politically better-connected elites ( Mustafa et al., 2017 ). It was alleged that the way in which the floods spread via inundation shielded areas with crops associated with powerful people, even though some of these areas were specifically designed to absorb floodwaters. At the same time, many high-ranking officials, including senior figures in the engineering sphere, had dismissed the concerns raised by local “non-technical” people in the lead up to the floods ( Ahmad, 2018 ). Indeed, some engineers in Punjab claimed that issues of water infrastructure should not be politicised ( Gaadi, 2010 ).

Protests, blockades and hunger strikes targeting elites from both within and outside Pakistan were organised. In the capital of Islamabad, demonstrations took place outside government buildings and the offices of international financial institutions ( Ahmad, 2018 ) . It signalled a political and pointed movement addressing the political conditions that were responsible for the increased flood vulnerability of the less privileged social groups.

Climate change and related challenges

Climatic changes are thought to have partially contributed to an increasing intensity of floods in Pakistan. Studies show that there has been a long-term trend towards more intense summer rains in the core monsoon regions of Pakistan, which may have led to the 2010 floods ( Chaudry, 2017 ; Wang et al., 2011 ). Meanwhile, some models predict heavy rains during the monsoon to become more irregular, further challenging Pakistan’s ability to address potential flood risks ( Stolbova, et al., 2016 ) .

Long-term trends also indicate that the Himalayan Glaciers, which feed the Indus basin, are receding ( Raj K. et al., 2017 ). These glaciers are likely to continue receding in the coming years: projections show that glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region could shrink by more than one-third under a 1.5°C rise in global average temperatures by the end of the century ( Bolch et al., 2019 ). This is likely to increase water flow in the short-run especially during the summer months ( J ayaram, 2016 ), further compounding the potential risks of floods.

Conflict resolution

Relief efforts.

Following the floods, the disaster response was coordinated primarily by Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) together with other government ministries and the army. Additionally, the international community provided relief aid, including water purification kits, medicine and food. By the end of 2011, the early recovery phase of the floods was accomplished, albeit with limitations in resources due to the onset of more floods in 2011 ( NDMA, 2011: p.38 ). The United States was the largest contributor to humanitarian aid, followed by private donations from individuals and organisations ( Reliefweb, 2010 ).  Agencies such as the Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies and the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund also provided shelter, food and water aimed at supporting short-term service provision ( Murtaza, 2010 ; Spaak & Rehman, 2011 ), while the Hirrak Development Centre funded by Action Aid worked with social movements to meet other demands ( Ahmad, 2018 ) . Government actions thus set in place the groundwork for people to return gradually to their rural livelihoods, and while these efforts, together with those from the international community, were partially successful in addressing grievances, many other emergency and long-term needs were not met.

Influence on Pakistan's climate adaptation policy

The 2010 floods also left an impression on Pakistan’s future climate action plans, culminating in the 2012 National Climate Change Policy and the 2014-2030 Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy , both of which aim to mainstream climate change into Pakistan’s development policies ( Shah, 2018 ). The floods were mentioned several times in both documents, with the latter outlining specific priority and short-term plans to address infrastructural damages caused by the floods (ibid).

Response planning through the NDMA

The year 2010 also saw a revision of the National Disaster Management Act and the formulation of a National Disaster Response Plan, which gave the institutional mandate to coordinate disaster management strategies at the national level to the NDMA. The aim was to create a single all-encompassing national disaster management legislation to improve disaster response and the dissemination of relief and aid. The longer-term aim is to mainstream disaster risk management into development policies to ensure that new policies take into account the particular vulnerability of certain populations ( NDMA, 2011 ).

Improving early warning systems

That said, further improvements are necessary. Towns and cities in Pakistan are generally better informed of flood risks, but many are often still unprepared. Some have suggested making Pakistan’s flood management institutions more open and transparent. The technocratic language that is used by Pakistani authorities in flood warnings makes it difficult for the addressees to properly assess the risk they are exposed to, and can add to the idea that the government is letting down the people and not adequately warning them ( Mustafa et al., 2017 ). Current approaches of the NDMA still focus on urban and coastal areas that may be affected by tsunamis (see NDMA, 2018 ; 2017 ), The development of a wide-reaching rural early warning system reaching out to remote communities and using easier language could further improve Pakistan’s disaster preparedness.

Improving infrastructure, data and legislation

Improving drainage infrastructure may mitigate the negative effects on communities in the wake of floods. Infrastructure may also be aligned with rigorous environmental data and current climate predictions to address changing levels of risk. This may also include updating legislation based on recent data and information. Some have suggested that outdated historical data was partly responsible for the insufficient level of safety of water infrastructure in 2010 ( Mustafa et al, 2017: p.23 ).

While dams are often presented as necessary flood risk mitigation measures, there is limited evidence that they prevent or could endure shocks incurred in the context of climate change ( Mustafa et al., 2017 ). Moreover, dam-building often entails political challenges between communities, regions and countries (for example, see Kalabagh Dam Conflict ).

Addressing inequalities and improving vulnerability assessments

Inundation zones are areas flooded intentionally. A problem arises when landed people in inundation zones receive compensation, while landless people do not. Compensation for loss of livelihoods, especially among the landless, may reduce possible anti-state sentiment in the wake of floods. Similarly, timely drainage would allow people to return to their homes and livelihoods sooner, reducing tensions brought by displacement. This would imply the improvement of vulnerability assessments to determine who is most at risk prior to floods, which could be integrated with early warning systems ( Mustafa et al., 2017 ).

Resilience and Peace Building

Improving actionable information.

The improvement of vulnerability assessments could help determine who is most at risk prior to floods, and could be integrated with early warning systems for rural and urban communities alike. Also, some have suggested using less technocratic language in risks assessments, which would make it easier for everyone to prepare for impending risks.

Improving infrastructure & services

Improving drainage infrastructure may mitigate the negative effects on communities in the aftermath of floods. At the moment, flood protection is allocated according to wealth and power in society, therefore protecting certain places from damage, but this self-evidently does not accommodate those worst affected by floods.

Compensation

Compensation for loss of livelihoods, especially among the landless, may reduce possible anti-state sentiment in the wake of floods.

Humanitarian & Development aid

Following the floods, the United States were the largest contributor to humanitarian aid, followed by private donations from individuals and organisations. Agencies such as the Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies and the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund also provided shelter, food, water and other services.

Resources and Materials

  • Ahmad, A.N. (2018). Conflict and Resistance in Southern Punjab: a Political Ecology of the 2010 Floods in Pakistan. In Zurayk, R. et al. (eds.): Crisis and Conflict in Agriculture. Oxford: CAB International.
  • Bolch, T. et al. (2019). Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya Region. In Wester, P. et al. (eds.): The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland (pp 209-255).
  • Budhani, A. & Gazdar, H. (2011). Land Rights and the Indus Flood, 2010-2011: Rapid Assessment and Policy Review. Oxford: Oxfam GB.
  • Chaudhry, Q.U.Z. (2017). Climate change profile of Pakistan. Manila: Asian Development Bank.
  • Disasters Emergency Committee (2015). Pakistan Floods Facts and Figures. [Access date: 06.12.2022].
  • Gaadi, M. (2010). Engineering failures. Dawn. [Access date: 06.12.2022].
  • Government of Pakistan (GoP) (2013). Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy (2014-2030). Islamabad: Government of Pakistan (Climate Change Division).
  • Jayaram, D. (2016). Why India and Pakistan Need to Review the Indus Waters Treaty. Climate Diplomacy. [Access date: 06.12.2022].
  • Murtaza, N. (2010). Evaluation of the Relief Phase of the International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies/Pakistan Red Crescent Society Monsoon Flash Floods Operation. Geneva: International Federation of Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies.
  • Mustafa, D. et al. (2017). Contested waters: Subnational scale water conflict in Pakistan. Peaceworks, 125. Washington, DC: United State Institute for Peace (USIP).
  • NDMA (2011). Annual Report 2011. Islamabad: Prime Minister’s Secretariat.
  • NDMA (2017). Annual Report 2017. Islamabad: Prime Minister’s Office.
  • NDMA (2018). Annual Report 2018. Islamabad: Prime Minister’s Office.
  • Raj K. et al. (2017). Alarming recession of glaciers in Bhilangna basin, Garhwal Himalaya, from 1965 to 2014 analysed from Corona and Cartosat data. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 8(2), 1424-1439.
  • Reliefweb (2010). Pakistan Flood Aid. Google Spreadsheets. [Access date: 06.12.2022].
  • Shah, A. (2018). Environmental and Climate Justice - A perspective from Pakistan. Remarks delivered by Justice Syed Mansoor Ali Shah, Judge, Supreme Court of Pakistan Islamabad. Asia Pacific Judicial Colloquium on Climate Change, Lahore (Pakistan).
  • Spaak, M. & Rehman, A.u. (2011) 5-year evaluation of the central Emergency response fund Country study: Pakistan. CERF.
  • Stolbova, V. et al. (2016). Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(8), 3982-3990.
  • Wang, S.Y. et al. (2011). Pakistan's two‐stage monsoon and links with the recent climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116(D16).

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Pre and Post Disaster Evaluation A Case Study of 2010 Floods in Pakistan

Profile image of Faizan Khan

Pakistan is vulnerable to natural hazards which mainly include earthquakes, floods and droughts. The country faces severe natural disaster in the last decade. Floods are the one happening frequently. This paper uses “2010 Floods” as a case study analysis to explore the overall scenario of pre and post disaster management of Pakistan. The method used in this paper is exploratory research approach. This research is qualitative base and all the data are collected from using secondary sources includes Umeå University Library online database, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) website and United Nations (UN) reports. The main problems highlighted in this report are as under, due to which the floods impacts were far higher than thoughts are as under.  Institutional in-capacities  Lack of information among vulnerable people  Environmental degradation  Poor land use planning  Poverty

Related Papers

Ali Jamshed

In Punjab, the continuous floods in the last six years especially in 2010 and 2014, due to climatic and non-climatic reasons, have exposed physical, socio-economic, and environmental vulnerabilities. The flood disaster management in Punjab is primarily focused on rescue, relief, and dependence of structural measures. The assessment of vulnerability is limited to district level (in form of mapping) which is incapable of identifying essential socio-economic drivers of vulnerability and local ability to cope and adapt. The mega flood of 2010 inflicted several changes in government structure and within communities. This research study assessed the vulnerability and capacity of flood affected communities as well as fluctuation in their vulnerability and capacity by analyzing planned and unplanned post flood responses. The study also determined the role of spatial planning in reducing flood vulnerabilities. To conduct the study, a vulnerability assessment framework was modified from sustainable livelihood and BBC framework. Qualitative and quantitative analysis and their triangulation were conducted to apprehend the pertaining issues. Interviews with officials of disaster management and spatial planning institutes were conducted to analyze changes after 2010 flood and government interventions. Participatory Rapid Appraisal (PRA) for two flood events (2010 and 2014) and household survey provided the vulnerability and capacity assessment of four flood affected communities in two severely affected districts (Jhang and Muzaffargarh) of Punjab. The results indicated that government interventions were limited to financial aid and early warning. These measures remained victim to political biasness, mismanagement, and lack of coordination and communication between departments. Other formal changes (legislation, policies, plans etc.) seemed to be less effective due to top-down approach, lack of technical man power; disaster management knowledge and financial constraints. Spatial planning appeared ineffective in mitigating flood risk as it was limited to urban areas and deficient incorporation of DRR measures in development plans. The results of PRA and household survey indicated that vulnerability of immovable assets increased or remained the same after 2014 flood disaster, but reduced significantly for moveable assets. Complex relationships existed within and between various dimensions of vulnerability that fluctuated vulnerability of related elements and factors. These relationships demonstrated that lack of physical infrastructure and awareness were the key drivers of vulnerability in Punjab.

pakistan 2010 flood case study

Abdur Rehman Cheema , Abid Mehmood

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a historical analysis of the disaster management structure, policies and institutions in Pakistan between 1947 and 2005, and highlights the contemporary challenges in view of the learning from the past. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a historic-integrative case study approach to disaster management and risk reduction policy, planning and practice. Qualitative data were collected through purposive sampling and a case study design was adopted. A broad range of actors was recruited as research participants. In total, 22 semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted in relation to this study in six different districts of Pakistan to achieve insight into the role of different institutions and stakeholders. Findings – Overall, the post-colonial flood-centric policy framework and fragmented responsibilities of different disaster management institutions show the lack of an effective institutional structure for disaster management and mitigation in Pakistan, particularly at the local level. Until the event of the 2005 earthquake, policies heavily relied on attaining immediate and short-term goals of response and relief while ignoring the long-term objectives of strategic planning for prevention and preparedness as well as capacity building and empowerment of local institutions and communities. Practical implications – The analysis explains, in part, why disaster planning and management needs to be given due attention in the developing countries at different policy scales (from local to national) especially in the face of limited resources, and what measures should be taken to improve effectiveness at different phases of the disaster management cycle. Originality/value – The paper advances the importance of a historical case study approach to disaster management and mitigation. The empirical work provides original research evidence about the approaches to dealing with disasters in Pakistan and thus enriches existing knowledge of disaster management policy and planning about the country.

Frontiers in Environmental Science

Muhsan Ehsan

Flood is one of the most damaging natural disasters as the recent floods have shown their serious impact on Pakistan. Flood control and regulation policies are essential to reduce the risks of economic downturn, a threat to human existence, and to sustain the ecology. The severity of flood catastrophe activities represents a constant and severe issue in the world. Floods are rising year by year in severity and duration, causing negative impacts on the social and economic conditions of the nation concerned. While the frequency of floods cannot be avoided, their adverse impacts can be considerably reduced by adopting careful planning and efficient training. This paper reviews the socioeconomic impact of floods, and the existing condition of flood control policies outlines the flood protection problems and discusses opportunities for successful and efficient flood control in Pakistan. The paper also intends to propose several suggestions for efficient and sustainable flood control in P...

International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology

Dr. Saifullah Khan

The study articulates the society supported flood disaster preparedness, vulnerability, management, and response in the Layyah district, southern Punjab, Pakistan. The area has recorded high summer temperature, low rainfall and an arid climate with an optimistic departure of one centimeter. At Taunsa barrage, the Indus river, as well as the Thal canal, show a decline in the annual flow, while it remains high at Chashma barrage having a heavy flow from July to October. Historically, the foremost disasters experienced in Layyah district are floods, earthquakes, droughts, epidemics, and fires. About 81 Potwar areas have been affected every year by flood disaster consisting of 36 medium and 45 high risks units. Obviously, the locals are the primary instrument to fight any catastrophe for their safety at the initial stage as they are admirable arbitrators of risk assessment, vulnerability, rehabilitation, excavation, and can acquire consistent estimations for their safety. The joint ende...

Greener Journal of Social Sciences

Muhammad Shahzad Iqbal

Agha Syed Muhammad Ayub Shah Bukhari

Disaster Management in the face of Climate Change is an immense challenge against Sustainable Development particularly for the developing and underdeveloped countries. While other shortcomings in terms of resources, skills, experience, knowledge both codified and tacit and likewise are there; Lack of Disaster Management Legislation is one of the major impediments leading to the defective public sector interventions. Disaster Management Act of Pakistan is analysed by comparing it to other similar pieces of legislation beside consultations and recording of practical issues. Amendements are proposed as a result in the form of a complete body of laws. The work calls for exploring more in terms of Disaster Management Technologies and Disaster Risk Management.

Sahar Gul Bhatti

Shabih-ul-Hassan Zaidi

In Pakistan floods have been causing large scale devastation in the past. However the historic Flood of 2010 caused large scale destruction of property, agricultural area , livestock and human life. The cause of this large scale devastation has mostly been the inadequate arrangements for dealing with the floods. The developed countries have established adequate systems for managing the flood disaster. These systems involve the stages of preparedness, rescue and relief and post-disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction in a planned manner. Consequently, the flood disaster restricted to the minimal loss of life and property in those countries. Learning from the experience of the developed nations, we need to employ the principles of Town Planning in our flood disaster management system. Thus proper Town Planning intervention in flood disaster management helps in building back better. In fact, the disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a part of any plan whether it is prepared at regional level or local level. It means that if the concept of total planning i.e. planning of all areas of the country is adopted, the nation will be prepared to face all types of disasters including flood disaster. Today the new technology can help us avert the flash flood disasters also. For example, a watch and ward system can be established through a continuous study of satellite imageries of the northern and north western mountainous areas to note down the development of natural lakes which burst out to cause flash floods. Similarly, the river plains and areas liable to flooding would be strictly avoided for development of any settlement through a national planning law and local development control regulations. At regional planning level dykes and flood water channels may be built and maintained along all rivers to avoid flooding of human settlements. In countries like Pakistan, most of the settlements that are destroyed due to heavy floods are the unauthorized and unplanned settlements. In normal circumstances, it is almost impossible to demolish these houses or settlements and evict the dwellers for the purpose of redevelopment according to the principles of DRR. However, the flood disaster provides an opportunity to relocate settlements developed on dangerous sites or areas liable to flooding. Later holistic planning can be followed at the stage of rehabilitation and reconstruction of these settlements. In case the settlement is located on safe site, onsite redevelopment may be carried out with flood proof material and provision of infrastructure in a planned manner. The redevelopment works may be carried out on the basis of aided self-help so that financial burden of the government may be reduced. New land acquisition law may be promulgated to procure land for housing the flood affected poor people. More over, the local planning and land sub-division bye-laws may be suitably modified to allow for construction of affordable houses for the flood affected people on the basis of aided self-help.

Mas Qhaisara , Nabaz N A W Z A D Abdullah

Jeddah flood was one the most catastrophic natural disaster in the history of Saudi Arabia which resulted in the death of more than one hundred people. This study intends to identify the significance of disaster management and the mechanism to help government in order to mitigate hazards. It also aims to define the factors and challenges that defied Saudi authorities to fail in managing 2009 Jeddah flooding. The study found that due to the lack of disaster management policy, urban settlement, precaution, preparation, mitigation, preparedness, disaster relief plan, disaster recovery plan, corruption and organizational behavior, the side effects of the flood was larger than the scale of the disaster. The study concluded that Saudi government is the lack of clear policy and technology to deal with natural disaster. Keywords: Disaster management, Jaddah, flooding, Saudi Arabia, natural disaster, preparedness

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Case study: the pakistan floods of 2010.

pakistan 2010 flood case study

  • Pakistan is situated in the northwest of the South Asian subcontinent.
  • The country can be divided into three main geographical areas; the Indus river plain; the two provinces of Punjab and Sindh, and the Balochistan Plateau.
  • Home to the famous K2 (Mount Godwin), the second highest peak in the world.
  • The climate is generally arid though it is influenced by the south east Asian monsoon. Half of the annual rainfall occurs in July and August, averaging about 255 millimeters in each of those two months.
  • Gained independence from the British India colony in 1947.
  • Earthquake prone zone along the Himilayan convergence fault line.
  • P rovinces of Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh, and the Azad Jammu and Kashmir were all affected by the floods.
  • 23 % of crops were destroyed .
  • Enormous mudslides took place on steep slopes in mountainous areas.
  • Reviving mangroves - replenishment of water and nutrients to natural mangroves that were previously diminishing since the construction of the Tarbela dam on the Indus. 170,000 hectares of mangroves had been lost in the Indus delta of the last 50 years, partially due to poor management of water flow along the Indus, starving the delta of sediments and allowing saline seawater to infiltrate the delta.
  • 20% of tree plantations created in the 2009 – 2010 afforestation project were ruined - leaving hill slopes susceptible to erosion, reducing interception of rainfall and increasing the intensity of future floods.
  • Loss of breeding grounds - the floods washed away vital wetland breeding grounds for wading birds and fish.
  • Habitat loss - an estimated 80% of reptile and small mammal habitats were affected within the Swat and Panjorka river catchments.
  • Pollution - a 62000 litres of petroleum and 44300 litres diesel from pumps.
  • 1781 fatalities.
  • 2966 people injured.
  • 20 million people affected in over 11000 villages.
  • £1.5 billion agriculture loss.
  • 1.9 million houses damaged.
  • Entire villages were submerged resulting in more than a million people displaced from their homes.
  • Spread of disease epidemics.
  • Infrastructure was demolished . Temporary structures such as rope bridges were constructed in the aftermath.  
  • Crops were ruined, some livestock drowned and food reserves were spoiled, creating food shortages that manifested to hunger and malnutrition. Food aid was donated from the UN.
  • Livelihoods dependent upon timber extraction, agriculture, fisheries and infrastructure collapsed.

pakistan 2010 flood case study

3 comments:

pakistan 2010 flood case study

very good facts, include economical impacts

Perhaps include some responses to floods?

I agree, a case study must always include responses. However, detailed facts and categorized impacts of the flood made this case study very accurate and well-written.

Disclaimer: Early release articles are not considered as final versions. Any changes will be reflected in the online version in the month the article is officially released.

Volume 30, Number 4—April 2024

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Diversity and Reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020

Suggested citation for this article

Sporadic cases and outbreaks of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) have been documented across Pakistan since 1976; however, data regarding the diversity of CCHF virus (CCHFV) in Pakistan is sparse. We whole-genome sequenced 36 CCHFV samples collected from persons infected in Pakistan during 2017–2020. Most CCHF cases were from Rawalpindi (n = 10), followed by Peshawar (n = 7) and Islamabad (n = 4). Phylogenetic analysis revealed the Asia-1 genotype was dominant, but 4 reassorted strains were identified. Strains with reassorted medium gene segments clustered with Asia-2 (n = 2) and Africa-2 (n = 1) genotypes; small segment reassortments clustered with the Asia-2 genotype (n = 2). Reassorted viruses showed close identity with isolates from India, Iran, and Tajikistan, suggesting potential crossborder movement of CCHFV. Improved and continuous human, tick, and animal surveillance is needed to define the diversity of circulating CCHFV strains in Pakistan and prevent transmission.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tickborne hemorrhagic disease caused by CCHF virus (CCHFV) and has a 30% fatality rate ( 1 ). CCHF was initially reported in 1940 in Crimea; identical disease manifestations were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the late 1960s ( 2 , 3 ). The virus comprises a tripartite RNA genome with large (L), medium (M), and small (S) segments and noncoding regions at the 5′ and 3′ termini. The coding regions are critical for virus polymerase activity, transcription, replication, and packaging. The L segment encodes an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, the M segment encodes a glycoprotein precursor, and the S segments encode a nucleocapsid protein ( 4 ). The primary vectors for CCHFV transmission are Hyalomma ticks; domestic ruminant livestock and wild animals are amplifying hosts ( 5 ).

CCHF is considered a serious global public health threat because of its widespread geographic distribution in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East and because no reliable treatment options or vaccines are available. Increased CCHF incidence has been observed in some CCHF-endemic regions in Asia over the past decade ( 6 ). In Africa, southern and eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, and Asia, ≈10,000–15,000 CCHFV infections occur each year. Most infections are subclinical or unrecognized sporadic cases or epidemics in CCHF-endemic regions; however, subclinical infections are frequently not reported and are thought to be a source of disease transmission ( 7 ). Hospital-acquired infections are another transmission route and are typically symptomatic ( 8 ). Factors resulting in severe CCHFV infections are unknown, but polymorphisms in toll-like receptors 8, 9, and 10 of the innate immune system correlate with disease severity ( 9 – 11 ).

In Asia, Pakistan reports the fourth highest number of human CCHF cases, preceded by Turkey, Russia, and Iran ( 12 ). Pakistan witnessed its first CCHF outbreak in 1976; since then, consistent sporadic outbreaks have occurred ( 13 ). Livestock maintenance practices in rural regions of the country, as well as the nomadic lifestyle on the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, have likely favored the spread of CCHFV via infected ticks. Cattle herd movement is unrestricted in the border areas of Pakistan, warranting careful surveillance measures. Analysis of virus phylogeny is crucial for identifying novel treatment options and new vaccines and determining the broad extent of CCHFV genetic recombination and reassortment ( 14 , 15 ). We conducted phylogenetic analyses of whole-genome sequences of CCHFV isolated from patients in Pakistan and evaluated the genomic diversity of circulating CCHFV.

Material and Methods

The National Institutes of Health Pakistan (NIHP) in Islamabad collected CCHFV samples from suspected CCHF cases across the country that were sent for confirmation. During January 2017–December 2020, a total of 795 samples (289 samples in 2017, 224 in 2018, 280 in 2019, and 2 in 2020) from suspected CCHFV cases were tested at NIHP. Virus RNA was extracted from blood samples by using the QIAamp Viral RNA Mini Kit (QIAGEN, https://www.qiagen.com ), and real-time PCR was performed by using a RealStar CCHFV RT-PCR Kit (altona Diagnostics, https://www.altona-diagnostics.com ) according to manufacturers’ instructions. We selected a subset of CCHFV-positive samples that had a cycle threshold (Ct) <26 for whole-genome sequencing. The study was approved by the NIHP Institutional Review Board.

Whole-Genome Sequencing of CCHFV

We treated extracted RNA with RNase-free DNase (Roche, https://www.roche.com ) and prepared next-generation sequencing libraries by using a TruSeq RNA Access Library Prep Kit (Illumina, https://www.illumina.com ) with CCHFV-specific enrichment oligonucleotides for samples that had Cts >26 or for samples that yielded a partial genome without CCHFV enrichment. For all other samples, we prepared libraries using the NEBNext Ultra II Directional RNA Library Prep Kit (New England Biolabs, https://www.neb.com ). We sequenced libraries by using either an Illumina MiSeq or MiniSeq (high output 2 × 150 cycles) instrument. We de novo assembled CCHFV genomes by using SPAdes version 3.14.0 (parameter -k auto; https://github.com/ablab/spades ). To improve genome coverage, we analyzed contigs by using BLAST ( https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov ) to identify the most closely related reference sequences. We mapped reads 3 times to the most closely related CCHFV genomes by using in-house scripts consisting of quality trimming (parameters: printseq-lite -min_qual_mean 25 -trim_qual_right 20 -min_len 50), read mapping (bwa-mem2 software, https://github.com/bwa-mem2 [REMOVED HYPERLINK38B561415881 FIELD]), and PCR deduplication (Picard MarkDuplicates, http://picard.sourceforge.net ). We called consensus genomes by using Geneious version 10 ( https://www.geneious.com ) (threshold = 0%, assign quality = total, minimum coverage >2). We inferred evolutionary history by using all available full-length CCHFV genomes from GenBank and RAxML software ( https://github.com/amkozlov/raxml-ng ) (parameters for tree generation: -m GTRGAMMA -p $RANDOM -f a -x $RANDOM -N 1000); bootstrap support was provided by 1,000 replicates. We deposited CCHFV genomes from this study into GenBank (accession nos. OM162027–130).

Phylogenetic Analysis

We downloaded reference genomes of all known CCHFV genotypes from GenBank. We conducted BLAST searches of the complete S, M, and L segment sequences and downloaded closely related sequences from GenBank. We performed multiple sequence alignment by using MAFFT ( https://mafft.cbrc.jp ) and maximum-likelihood analyses for each segment by using IQ-TREE ( http://www.iqtree.org ) with 1,000 bootstrap replicates. We visualized and annotated the phylogenetic tree by using FigTree v1.4.4 ( https://github.com/rambaut/figtree/releases ).

Locations of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Main maps indicate the 2 regions in Pakistan with positive cases. Shading indicates provinces that had 1–10 cases. Inset map shows Pakistan and borders with Afghanistan, India, and Iran.

Figure 1 . Locations of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Main maps indicate the 2 regions in Pakistan with positive cases. Shading indicates provinces that...

Sex and age distribution of patients with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Colored dots indicate the number of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases each year according to patient sex and age groups.

Figure 2 . Sex and age distribution of patients with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Colored dots indicate the number of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases each...

During 2017–2020, a total of 795 samples were referred to NIHP for CCHFV laboratory diagnosis; 75 samples were CCHFV positive by using quantitative reverse transcription PCR (25 samples collected in 2017, 20 in 2018, 28 in 2019, and 2 in 2020). A Ct <26 was observed in 36 (47%) of those samples, which were then successfully sequenced. The sequenced samples were collected from patients residing in 14 districts; most (n = 21) resided in Punjab Province, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (n = 8), Islamabad (n = 4), and Sindh Province (n = 3) ( Figure 1 ). Demographic and clinical data for 34 (94%) cases were available; 22 (82%) case-patients were male and 6 (18%) female. The mean age of CCHF patients was 35 (SD + 15; range 5–60) years ( Figure 2 ). The most common clinical signs and symptoms were fever (34/34 [100%]), hemorrhage (22/34 [65%]) and myalgia (14/34 [41%]). Among hemorrhagic patients, most had hematemesis (9/22 [41%]), followed by gum bleeding (06/22 [27%]), melena (4/22 [18%]), hematuria (2/22 [9%]), and vaginal bleeding (1/22 [5%]). Of the 34 CCHF cases, 12 patients died (35% case-fatality rate) ( Table 1 ).

Phylogenetic analysis of full-length small gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood method. Blue-green text indicates sequences from this study, which clustered with the Asia-1 and Asia-2 genotypes. Scale bar indicates nucleotide substitutions per site.

Figure 3 . Phylogenetic analysis of full-length small gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood method....

Phylogenetic analysis of full-length medium gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood method. Blue-green text indicates sequences from this study. Most M segments from Pakistan clustered with the Asia-1 genotype/clade, but 3 reassorted sequences clustered with the Asia-2 clade, and 1 reassorted sequence clustered with the Africa-2 clade. Scale bar indicates nucleotide substitutions per site.

Figure 4 . Phylogenetic analysis of full-length medium gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood method....

Phylogenetic analysis of full-length large gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood method. Blue-green font indicates sequences from this study, which clustered only with the Asia-1 genotype. Scale bar indicates nucleotide substitutions per site.

Figure 5 . Phylogenetic analysis of full-length large gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood method....

Among the 36 sequenced CCHFV samples, we obtained complete sequences for all S segment, 35 L segments, and 33 M segments. Phylogenetic analysis of all 3 segments indicated the Asia-1 genotype (n = 29/33) was dominant. Moreover, we detected reassortment in 4 samples ( Table 2 ). When phylogenetic analysis of individual genomic segments included additional samples, a similar picture emerged. Analysis of S segments revealed that most (n = 33) CCHFV sequences from this study clustered into the Asia-1 genetic lineage along with strains previously reported from humans (GenBank accession nos. AJ538198 [in 2000] and AF527810 [in 1976]) and ticks (accession nos. MN135942 [in 2017] and KY484037 [in 1965]) in Pakistan and other regional countries, such as Iran, India, Afghanistan, China, Oman, and United Arab Emirates. Three sequences clustered with the Asia-2 genotype, along with strains from India, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and China ( Figure 3 ). The M segment sequences showed the greatest diversity with most samples clustering into the Asia-1 lineage along with strains from India (2015–2016), Iran (2007 and 2017), Afghanistan (2009), United Arab Emirates (1995 and 1998), and Pakistan (2004 and 2017) ( Figure 4 ). The 2 Asia-2 isolates grouped with strains from China, Oman, and the Matin strain from Pakistan (GenBank accession no. AF467769). An M segment sequence from Rawalpindi (Gujrat state) in 2019 clustered with the Africa-2 lineage along with viruses reported from India during 2016–2019 (accession nos. MN866218, MH396665, and MN930411) ( Figure 4 ). Phylogenetic reconstructions of the L segment revealed clustering with the Asia-1 lineage; closest matches were from India (2015–2019), Iran, China, Oman, Afghanistan, and previously reported strains from Pakistan isolated from ticks (accession nos. MN135944 [in 2017] and KY484039 [in 1965]) and a human (accession no. AY422208 [in 1976]) ( Figure 5 ). According to analyses of L segments, all CCHFVs from this study shared 98%–100% identity at the nucleotide and amino acid levels.

The L and S segments from the Africa-2 isolate from Pakistan in this study (NIH-PAK-CCHF-233_2019) belonged to the Asia-1 lineage, suggesting reassortment. In addition, 3 other isolates showed reassortment. The S and M segments of NIH-PAK-CCHF-84_2018 clustered with the Asia-2 genotype, and the L segment clustered with Asia-1. The L and M segments of NIH-PAK-CCHF-43_2018 had Asia-1 genotypes, whereas the S segment had an Asia-2 genotype. Similarly, the S and L segments of NIH-PAK-CCHF-20_2019 had Asia-1 genotypes, and the M segment clustered with the Asia-2 genotype.

CCHF is endemic in Pakistan, and data reported since 2010 indicate an increase in human CCHF cases. The first human CCHF case was reported in 1976, and several sporadic outbreaks have been reported since then from different parts of the country ( 13 , 16 ). Human CCHF-positive case counts have increased during 2011–2020; a total of 605 confirmed CCHF cases have been reported ( 17 – 19 ). The increase in cases can be attributed to multiple factors, including the country’s underdeveloped healthcare system that has insufficiently trained healthcare professionals and lacks equipment to manage CCHF, as well as an insufficient number of healthcare facilities that offer CCHF management. Furthermore, the general public is relatively uninformed about CCHFV vector control and risks for transmission to healthy persons while handling livestock and conducting animal husbandry. CCHFV transmission risk becomes higher in urban areas during the Eid ul Azha festival, which includes ritual animal slaughter.

The porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has large refugee and nomadic tribal movements, often accompanied by their cattle, across Balochistan Province and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, which also contribute to CCHFV transmission; Afghanistan is also a CCHF-endemic country ( 20 ). According to the NIHP, 296 cases of CCHF were reported during 2015–2020; most infections were from Balochistan Province (39%), then Punjab (24%), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (14%), Sindh (12%), and Islamabad (5%) ( 18 ). Balochistan and Punjab Provinces contributed most of the CCHF cases. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan Provinces border CCHF-endemic countries; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province shares a border with Afghanistan, and Balochistan Province shares a border with Iran, where livestock movement takes place routinely and, thus, potentially contributes to reported CCHF case numbers ( 13 , 21 ). Animal surveillance studies from Pakistan have reported CCHFV from all over Pakistan but primarily from the Balochistan region. Less CCHFV cases have been reported from Punjab Province, although it harbors the largest animal population because of greater agricultural land mass ( 13 , 22 , 23 ), which could potentially favor the tick–vertebrate–tick life cycle.

Hyalomma and Rhipicephalus spp. (Ixodidae family) ticks, reported as the most prevalent tick species in southern, western, and northern Punjab ( 24 , 25 ), are the main spreaders of CCHFV in different regions of Pakistan and increase the risk for CCHF outbreaks. Regions of upper Punjab, such as Chakwal, Mianwali, Rawalpindi and Attock, have >20% prevalence of ticks with CCHFV, compared with the lower Punjab regions of Rajanpur and Lahore, which have <10% prevalence. Hyalomma and Rhipicephalus ticks infesting livestock have been reported from Balochistan Province, where the district of Kalat has the largest percentage of CCHFV-positive ticks (60%), followed by Quetta (30%) and Qilla Abdullah (10%). The semiarid climate comprising shrub rangelands in Balochistan Province appears to favor tick growth ( 13 , 23 ). Furthermore, Punjab Province, particularly in the upper region, has large rangelands for animal grazing, a semiarid climate with high precipitation, and abundant livestock, which also provide a thriving tick habitat and can subsequently increase CCHFV prevalence ( 26 ). Previous studies have reported high CCHFV IgG seroprevalence in humans from Upper Punjab ( 27 , 28 ), which suggests effective control measures are especially needed in this area to inhibit tick infestation of livestock and prevent CCHF outbreaks.

The lack of next-generation sequencing capabilities in Pakistan has been a major limitation for determining the genomic diversity of circulating CCHFV. Previously, partial sequencing of the S gene segment was used for classification and phylogenetic analysis of CCHFV ( 13 , 16 , 29 – 31 ). Because the S segment is conserved and relatively short compared with L and M segments, it was used as a surrogate for performing phylogenetic analysis. Evidence of reassortment ( 31 – 34 ) among CCHFV genomes confirmed the need for whole-genome or partial sequencing of all 3 gene segments ( 35 ). CCHFV samples collected from infected patients intermittently during 1965, 1976, and 2000–2002 in Pakistan showed the prevalence of the Asia-1 genotype and phylogenetic association with viruses from the neighboring countries of Iran, Afghanistan, and United Arab Emirates ( 31 ). During 2008–2011, the Asia-1 genotype was the most prevalent lineage circulating in the southwest region of Pakistan, specifically Balochistan Province, which borders the CCHF-endemic countries of Iran and Afghanistan ( 13 , 17 ). Moreover, in 2008, a single case of Asia-2 genotype was also reported from Quetta in Balochistan Province, which was phylogenetically related to viruses from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan ( 29 ). According to S segment sequencing, another study on CCHFV in Pakistan during 2019 involved 14 districts and further corroborated the endemicity of the Asia-1 genotype ( 30 ). In this study, most (80.5%, n = 29) CCHFVs circulating in Pakistan clustered with the Asia-1 (S, M, and L segments) clade alongside strains from neighboring (Iran, India, Afghanistan, and China) and regional (Oman and United Arab Emirates) countries, indicating CCHFV transmission between those countries. Circulation of genetically similar CCHFV strains has been reported in Iran, where frequent animal trade has been hypothesized to cause CCHFV movement between Pakistan and neighboring countries ( 13 , 36 – 39 ).

In this study, we observed 4 (11%) reassortment events among the 36 whole-genome sequences. Although frequent reassortment events have been reported in the M segment, rendering high virus fitness, we observed reassortment in the S segment as well. The Matin strain isolated from Pakistan has been a good example of CCHFV reassortment events in this region ( 15 ). Segmental reassortment in RNA viruses has been associated with emergence of pandemic virus strains and antigenic shifts ( 33 ). The Africa-2 reassorted virus (NIH-PAK-CCHF-233_2019) shared a common clade with sequences from India isolated from pooled tick specimens. Two of the sequences from India (GenBank accession nos. MN866218 and MN930411) were isolated from ticks from Rajasthan and Gujarat state in 2019, showing 98% homology at the nucleotide and amino acid levels with the Africa-2 isolate from Pakistan. Rajasthan state in India shares a border with Punjab and Sindh Provinces of Pakistan, but Gujarat state is more centrally located and does not share a border with Pakistan. M segments of the Asia-2 genotype also clustered with sequences isolated from ticks from China (GenBank accession no. MN832722.1). In China, the virus has been isolated from Hyalomma asiaticum ticks. However, in Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, H. anatolicum is the main CCHFV vector ( 40 ). Furthermore, both H. anatolicum and Rhipicephalus ticks have been reported as the primary vectors of CCHFV in Pakistan and Iran ( 41 ). Because of the diversity of ticks in different regions, further investigation of CCHFV prevalence in various tick species in Pakistan is needed.

Surveillance of CCHFV reassortment, although difficult, is crucial for health authorities. Whether reassortments can be linked to increased virus pathogenicity or disease severity requires further study. Variations in antigenicity among CCHFV isolates have not been reported but need to be considered for future vaccines ( 32 ). Rapid diagnostics for identifying and managing outbreaks are pivotal; however, considering the evolutionary dynamics of CCHFV strains, immunological assays should be used in conjunction with PCR to achieve high diagnostic sensitivity. A concurrent need exists for better understanding of CCHFV antibody kinetics in clinically diverse samples, and next-generation sequencing can help identify mutant viruses.

In conclusion, we identified CCHFV sequences with verifiable genomic reassortments and highlight the importance of sequencing all 3 virus segments. Our results suggest diversification of circulating strains of CCHFV in Pakistan and warrant rigorous surveillance and follow-up of CCHF cases, particularly in disease-endemic regions of the country. The CCHFV Asia-1 genotype has been prevalent in Pakistan, but the Africa-2 genotype might also be emerging. CCHFV sequences from this study are from humans; however, sequences from other host vertebrates, particularly from ticks, will also be required to identify CCHFV mutations and evolutionary dynamics in different regions of the world. Because CCHFV reassortment is a continual evolutionary phenomenon, which can genetically shift virus genomes enhancing pathogenicity, careful application of routine and effective control measures that reduce overall tick abundance in the environment can likely bring substantial reduction in risk for CCHFV transmission to humans. Furthermore, genomic surveillance of CCHFV is needed to identify the major circulating genotypes in Pakistan and elsewhere, which will further aid in containment of disease.

Dr. Umair is a senior scientific officer and head of the virology department at the National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan. His primary research focuses on emerging and reemerging virus infections.

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  • Figure 1 . Locations of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Main maps indicate the 2 regions in Pakistan with positive cases. Shading indicates provinces...
  • Figure 2 . Sex and age distribution of patients with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Colored dots indicate the number of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases...
  • Figure 3 . Phylogenetic analysis of full-length small gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood...
  • Figure 4 . Phylogenetic analysis of full-length medium gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood...
  • Figure 5 . Phylogenetic analysis of full-length large gene segments of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in study of virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Midpoint-rooted trees were generated by using the maximum-likelihood...
  • Table 1 . Characteristics of confirmed cases of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Pakistan, 2017–2020
  • Table 2 . Genotypes of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever viruses isolated from patients in Pakistan, 2017–2020

Suggested citation for this article : Umair M, Rehman Z, Whitmer S, Mobley M, Fahim A, Ikram A, et al. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus diversity and reassortment, Pakistan, 2017–2020. Emerg Infect Dis. 2024 Apr [ date cited ]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid3004.231155

DOI: 10.3201/eid3004.231155

Original Publication Date: February 28, 2024

1 These authors contributed equally to this article.

Table of Contents – Volume 30, Number 4—April 2024

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Massab Umair, Department of Virology, National Institute of Health, 45500 Park Rd, Chak Shahzad, Islamabad, Pakistan

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