water crisis in pakistan research paper 2022

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• Published: 14 October 2023

Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves

• Chi-Cherng Hong   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-249X 1 ,
• An-Yi Huang   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2872-2294 1 ,
• Huang-Hsiung Hsu   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9919-4404 2 ,
• Wan-Ling Tseng   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6644-9965 2 , 3 ,
• Mong-Ming Lu   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1694-034X 4 &
• Chih-Chun Chang 1  

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science volume  6 , Article number:  163 ( 2023 ) Cite this article

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In boreal summer of 2022, Pakistan experienced extremely high rainfall, resulting in severe flooding and displacing over 30 million people. At the same time, heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe. The coexistence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage. Our analysis indicated that the record rainfall was mainly induced by compounding factors. These included (1) La Niña-induced strong anomalous easterlies over the northern Indian subcontinent, (2) intense southerlies from the Arabian Sea with an upward trend in recent decades, (3) an interaction between extratropical and tropical systems, specifically the northerly flow downstream of the Europe blocking and the southerly monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea. Wave activity flux and regression analyses unveiled a distinct stationary Rossby wave-like pattern connecting the flooding in Pakistan and heatwaves in Europe and China. This pattern, an emerging teleconnection pattern in recent decade, exhibited substantial differences from the reported teleconnection patterns. We also noted the positive feedback of the excessive Pakistan rainfall could further enhance the large-scale background flow and the heavy rainfall itself. The 2022 Pakistan flood event was an intensified manifestation of the 2010 Pakistan flood event, which was also caused by compounding factors, but occurred in a more pronounced upward trend in the both tropics and extratropics.

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Introduction.

In 2022, Pakistan experienced a sequence of unusually intense monsoon rainfall surges that struck from early July to late August. The extreme rainfall caused widespread landslides along the Indus River basin, resulting in flooding across one-third of the country. The flooding left over 30 million people homeless and resulted in 1000 deaths, as well as over USD 30 billion in damage and economic losses, according to the World Bank. The accumulated rainfall was approximately four standard deviations above the climatological mean value and was twice the amount of rainfall observed in the 2010 flooding event, which caused significant socioeconomic losses and nearly 3000 deaths. Concurrently, extreme heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe, severely affecting agriculture and power supply. The concurrence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage 1 .

The year 2022 witnessed a triple-dip La Niña that began in 2020. Previous studies have indicated that a La Niña summer tends to exhibit a strong western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and Indian monsoon flow 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . The influence of La Niña-induced changes in large-scale circulation has been identified as a crucial factor in causing the 2010 extreme flooding event 7 , 8 and likely had a similar impact in 2022. Although the Niño4 index reached an unusually low level during the boreal summer of 2022 (the second lowest since 1979, following 1999), the regression analysis of 850-hPa moisture flux on Niño4 and Niño3.4 (of moderate magnitude) individually did not exhibit substantial differences over the northern Indian subcontinent and Pakistan (not shown). This suggests that La Niña alone, including Niño4 SST, cannot fully explain the anomalous rainfall in Pakistan. For example, the total rainfall in 2022, despite having a moderate La Niña (Niño3.4), was nearly double that of the strong La Niña year in 2010. In addition, extreme rainfall events did not occur in other La Niña summers, such as 1998 and 1999.

The extreme events of 2010 and 2022 exhibited notable similarities, in addition to occurring during La Niña conditions. The 2010 flooding in Pakistan, which ranked among the top three in terms of accumulated rainfall since 1979, was attributed to a tropical–extratropical interaction. This interaction involved a northerly flow associated with a blocking high and heatwave over Europe, coupled with an intensified summer monsoon flow in the western Indian Ocean (IO) 7 , 9 , 10 . Similarly, in 2022, a strong blocking high and heatwave over Europe (45°–60°E) coincided with an intense summer monsoon in the Arabian Sea, observed from mid-June to late August. In both instances, the heatwave in Europe and the flooding in Pakistan were connected through an extratropical Rossby wave-like perturbation over the Eurasian continent. It is plausible that a comparable tropical–extratropical interaction contributed to the 2022 flooding in Pakistan. Furthermore, there is evidence of enhanced atmospheric perturbations and increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) in recent decades, which may have intensified extreme rainfall and heatwaves 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 . SST in the IO has been rising since 1980 15 , 16 , and higher SST levels contribute to increased moisture availability and strengthened moisture transport, potentially amplifying rainfall over mountainous regions in Pakistan. Understanding whether this trend played a role in the heavier rainfall observed in 2022 is therefore essential.

Extreme events have been reported to occur when different influencing factors synchronized 12 , 17 , 18 . In this study, we explore the physical processes that led to the record rainfall in Pakistan in 2022 (Fig. 1a ). Our focus is especially on the above-mentioned compounding effect on the extreme rainfall in 2022. Additionally, we address the linkage of the record rainfall with the Europe and China heatwaves. Our hypothesis posits that the flooding was caused by compounding factors: the unusually strong anomalous easterlies induced by La Niña over the northern Indian subcontinent, an enhanced southerly flow from the Arabian Sea characterized by an upward trend in recent decades, and the tropical–extratropical interaction between monsoon and northerly surges. Even more intriguingly, we identify a Rossby wave-like teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent, which has been in action since 2010, that connected the Pakistan’s record rainfall to the China and Europe heatwaves.

a Normalized time series of July–August averaged Pakistan (PKT; 22°–32°N, 63°–73°E) rainfall index (one standard deviation equals 1.31 mm day –1 ) and Central China 2-m temperature (T2m; 25°–35°N, 90°–120°E) index (one standard deviation equals 0.58 °C). The correlation coefficient between PKT rainfall and Central China T2m indices is 0.44 ( P  < 0.01) during 1979–2021. b July–August averaged anomalous precipitation (PR, shading; unit: mm day –1 ) and 850-hPa horizontal winds (UV850, vectors; unit: m s –1 ; minimum vector: 1). Black box indicates the region for Pakistan rainfall index. c Same as in ( b ), except the shading and black contour lines represent the near-surface temperature (T2m; unit: °C) and 500-hPa geopotential height (H500; unit: m; interval: 15) anomalies, respectively. Blue solid and dashed contour lines (5870-m isoline) are the 2022 and climatological mean of 500-hPa geopotential height, respectively, representing the location of WNPSH. Shadings with white crosses in both ( b , c ) indicate that the signals (precipitation and 2-m temperature) of each grid exceeded the 99th percentile during 1979–2022.

Features of the record rainfall in Pakistan

Figure 1a depicts the time series of July–August averaged rainfall in Pakistan and China’s 2-meter temperature (T2m) from 1979 to 2022. In addition, Fig. 1 presents the anomalous rainfall, T2m, 850-hPa wind, and 500-hPa geopotential height (H500) over the Eurasian continent in 2022. In 2022, both Pakistan and northwestern India experienced rainfall that exceeded the 99th percentile value based on the 1979–2022 data. Central China and northeastern Europe, downstream and upstream of Pakistan, respectively, witnessed below-normal rainfall and above-normal T2m values that exceeded the 99th percentile (Fig. 1b, c ). The extreme rainfall in Pakistan was accompanied by an intensified southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and an easterly anomaly associated with the strong Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) extending from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the northern Indian subcontinent. The convergence of the anomalous southwesterly and easterly winds near Pakistan provided a favorable large-scale condition for convection. At the same time, anomalous anticyclonic circulations and extreme warmth resided over Europe and China.

The daily time series of the Pakistan (PKT) rainfall index (Fig. 2a ) reveals three unusually strong monsoon rainfall surges during July–August 2022. During these surges, strong southerly flows originating in the Arabian Sea reached Pakistan and converged with the anomalous southward-penetrating northerly flow from the extratropics (Fig. 2b ). The first surge occurred in early to mid-July, followed by the second surge in late July, and the third, the strongest event, persisted from early to late August. Notably, both the first and third surges were accompanied by the northward propagation of convection from the Arabian Sea and the southward penetration of northerly from the extratropics toward Pakistan (Fig. 2c ), a phenomenon also observed during the other two extreme events in 2010 and 2020 (Supplementary Fig. 1c, g ). The three monsoon rainfall surges accounted for ~32%, 16%, and 49%, respectively, of the accumulated rainfall from July to August, collectively contributing to more than 90% of the total rainfall during that period. Consequently, a record accumulated rainfall of 450-mm was observed from July 1 st to August 31 st , which was approximately four times higher than the climatological average and twice as much as the previous record set in 2010. Understanding the first and third surges was particularly important because of their significant contribution to total rainfall and also the common influences by both southerly and northerly surges. Although a short-lived tropical storm occurred in the Arabian Sea on 12–13 August, it did not make landfall and thus did not significantly contribute to the observed excessive rainfall. The excessive rainfall in August was primarily attributed to the third monsoon surge 19 .

a Bars and lines represent daily and accumulated PKT rainfall (PR; unit: mm day –1 ), respectively. The colored bars indicate three extreme rainfall periods (surge 1 in green: 7/1–7/18, surge 2 in yellow: 7/23–7/30, and surge 3 in blue: 8/4–8/30). The numbers near colored bars are the percentage of the accumulated rainfall in each period against total period (7/1–8/31). b Hovmöller (time-latitude) diagram of 3-day averaged 10-m meridional wind (V10m, shading; unit: m s –1 ) averaged over 60°–75°E. c Same as ( b ), but for anomalous outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, shading; unit: 10 1  W m –2 ). White arrows indicate the northward propagation of convection. d Hovmöller (time-longitude) diagram of blocking index with shading representing the 500-hPa geopotential height gradient south of middle-high latitude (blocking index, BI; unit: m/degree latitude; only values larger than 0 are plotted) averaged over five grid points (details are documented in the methods section). Black contour lines (0 isoline) mark the regions of blocking.

A mid-to upper-level blocking high was observed over northeastern Europe (Fig. 1c ), similar to 2010 7 . The blocking high was particularly pronounced in August (Fig. 2d ) and accompanied by enhanced trough (downstream of the blocking) and northerly winds extending southward from extratropical Eurasia to South Asia (Fig. 2b ). The anomalous northerly flow transported cold-dry air southward, creating a convection-favorable environment (i.e., an unstable atmosphere) near Pakistan when it met the tropical warm-moist southerly flow from the Arabian Sea 7 . This tropical–extratropical interaction was also observed in 2010 and likely played a significant role in inducing the extreme rainfall. These characteristics were most evident during the first and third monsoon surge, coinciding with the arrival of the northerly wind anomaly at Pakistan from the deepened trough downstream of the extratropical positive height anomalies (Fig. 2b, d ). Our analysis showed that the Rossby wave-like perturbations over Eurasia occurred during the first and third rainfall surge. Their appearances were consistent with the duration of the rainfall event. That is, the pattern was persistently present in August but was relatively transient in July, especially during 5–11 July when large rainfall occurred (Supplementary Fig. 2 ).

All-time top 3 and top 1 rainfall events in Pakistan occurred, respectively, in 2010 and 2022. Both were La Niña years with anomalously low-level easterly winds over South Asia, an enhanced WNPSH, and an extratropical wave-like perturbation over Eurasia. However, they also differed in certain characteristics as discussed below. First, in 2022, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like SST anomaly (SSTA) occurred, with warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern IO, whereas in 2010, a basin-wide warm SSTA was observed in the IO (Fig. 3a, b ). Second, an unusually persistent upper-level anticyclone anomaly was present over central China in 2022 (Fig. 3a ), while in 2010, positive anomalies appeared over central Eurasia and near Japan 20 (Fig. 3b ).

a Sea surface temperature (SST, shading; unit: °C) and 200-hPa stream function (PSI200, contour; unit 10 6  m 2  s –1 ; interval: 3) in 2022. b Same as ( a ), but for 2010. c Vertically integrated (surface–300-hPa) moisture flux convergence (MFC, shading; unit: g m –2  s –1 ) and moisture flux (UqVq, vectors; unit: 10 5  g m –1  s –1 ; minimum vector: 0.4) in 2022. Note that the values of MFC had been multiplied by “–1” (i.e., positive and negative values represent convergence and divergence, respectively). d Same as ( c ), but for 2010. Shadings with white crosses in both ( c , d ) indicate the MFC exceeding the 99th percentile during 1979–2022.

The 2022 event exhibited several distinctive features: record-breaking rainfall, the presence of La Niña, a strong and westward-extended WNPSH, a strong southerly flow over the Arabian Sea, an easterly anomaly over the northern Indian subcontinent, an upper-level trough associated with upstream Europe blocking, and vigorous tropical–extratropical interaction. To assess the rareness of these factors, we compared the circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics of the 2022 event with those of the 2010 and 2020 extreme events (exceeding 1.5 standard deviation of Pakistan rainfall) as well as the La Niña years in 1998 and 1999 (with 1 negative standard deviation of Niño3.4 but lower Pakistan rainfall) (Supplementary Fig. 3 ). The comparisons are summarized in Supplementary Table 1 .

An enhanced WNPSH and associated lower-level easterly anomalies extending from the WNP to the northern Indian subcontinent were observed in 1998, 2010, 2020, and 2022, but not in 1999 (Supplementary Fig. 4 ). The La Niña-associated SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific contributed to the enhancement of the WNPSH 21 , 22 in 1998, 1999, 2010, and 2022. In addition, the easterly anomaly associated with the WNPSH, extending from the WNP to the IO, indicates a weakened southwesterly monsoon flow, which could enhance moisture convergence and rainfall in Pakistan and northwestern India. Nevertheless, in the La Niña summers of 1998 and 1999, Pakistan received less rainfall than normal. In contrast, the summer rainfall in Pakistan in 2020, a non-La Niña summer, was comparable to that in 2010 (Supplementary Fig. 3 ).

Notably, while the July–August averaged Niño4 SST in 2022 was the second lowest (following 1999) since 1979, the regression of 850-hPa moisture fluxes on Niño4 and Niño3.4 show only minor differences over Pakistan and the northwestern Indian subcontinent (not shown). The correlation between the PKT index and Niño3.4 was even higher than that with Niño4, suggesting an unusually low Niño4 in 2022 was not an important factor as might be suspected. These findings suggest that the La Niña SSTA alone seemed insufficient to cause the extreme rainfall in Pakistan, even though the summer Indian monsoon flow was suggested to be statistically stronger in La Niña years compared to neutral years 23 , 24 , 25 . Similarly, the SSTA in the Indian Ocean, which exhibited distinct characteristics among the extreme rainfall summers of 2010, 2020, and 2022, did not seem to be an influential factor.

Furthermore, a clear tropical–extratropical interaction, similar to that observed in 2022, was identified in the extreme rainfall summer of 2010 (also a La Niña year), whereas it was absent in the two other La Niña years, 1998 and 1999 (not shown). This observation highlights the significant role of Europe-blocking-related wave activity in enhancing the tropical–extratropical interaction that contributed to the occurrence of extreme rainfall. These findings indicate that the extreme rainfall events in Pakistan during the summers of 2010 and 2022 were the result of multiple factors, including the La Niña-related enhancement of the WNPSH and the interaction between the tropical monsoon flow and extratropical disturbances. However, the reasons behind the higher rainfall in 2022 compared to 2010 remain unclear and are discussed in the following section.

Influencing factors

Climate extremes are often induced by compounding factors 18 , 26 , and the summer of 2022 happened to be a summer in which the following factors coexisted.

Previous studies have revealed that the negative SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific during a La Niña summer 24 can induce an anticyclonic anomaly (i.e., a typical Gill-type response) in the WNP. This anticyclonic anomaly substantially weakens the southwesterly flow in South and East Asia 25 , 27 . Consequently, the southwesterly flow becomes predominantly confined over the Arabian Sea, leading to enhanced moisture convergence and creating a more favorable environment for heavy rainfall in the northwestern Indian subcontinent. However, the above interpretation does not provide an explanation for why the total rainfall in 2022 was nearly double that of 2010, considering that the La Niña was slightly stronger in the boreal summer of 2010 than 2022.

One may suspect that the IO SSTA contributed to the stronger moist southwesterly flow over the Arabian Sea in 2022 compared to 2010 (Fig. 3c, d ). As mentioned earlier, while both 2010 and 2022 were La Niña summers, they exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of IO SSTA (Fig. 3a, b ). The question remains whether the negative IOD in 2022 resulted in a stronger southwesterly flow. Our calculation of the correlation coefficient (cc) between the 850-hPa meridional wind over the Arabian Sea (averaged over 10°–20°N, 50°–65°E) and the IOD index yielded a statistically insignificant 0.03 correlation ( P  = 0.83, calculated based on Fisher’s Z-transformation). Therefore, the enhanced southwesterly in 2022 cannot be solely attributed to the negative IOD.

The tropical–extratropical interaction was another crucial factor in helping induce the record rainfall (Fig. 2 ). This interaction was particularly evident during the third surge, which persisted throughout almost the entire month of August. The third rainfall surge occurred when the northerly wind associated with the upstream blocking converged with the southerly flow over Pakistan (Fig. 2 ). This convergence resulted in strong convection in Pakistan.

In addition, our numerical experiment suggests that the convection-induced diabatic heating near Pakistan may accelerate the southerly flow from the Arabian Sea (Supplementary Fig. 5a ), indicating a self-amplification between convection and circulation. A recent study reported that the atmospheric river from the Arabian Sea played a dominant role in the record rainfall over Pakistan in August 19 . Our study, in line with their findings, suggests the possibility that southward-penetrating extratropical disturbances helped trigger precipitation in Pakistan through tropical–extratropical interaction, which, in turn, could enhance the southerly flow (atmospheric river) from the Arabian Sea. This positive feedback process could be a key feature in explaining the heavy rainfall observed in 2022.

The same mechanism can also be applied to the 2010 event, and therefore it cannot explicitly explain the heavier rainfall in 2022. However, we observed larger moisture flux over the northern Indian subcontinent and the Arabian Sea, as well as greater convergence near Pakistan during 2022 compared to 2010.

Considering the compatible La Niña (slightly weaker but more persistent in 2022) and the strength of the WNPSH in 2010 and 2022, another possibility for the heavier rainfall in 2022 is the long-term trends commonly observed in many regions and variables. While the summer rainfall in Pakistan does not exhibit a significant trend (Supplementary Fig. 6a ), the moisture fluxes show a significant increasing trend in the Arabian Sea over 1979–2021 (Supplementary Fig. 6b ). Calculations reveal a significant correlation between Pakistan rainfall and the southerly flow in the Arabian Sea (cc = 0.32, P  < 0.05) during 1979–2021. When considering the contribution of the linear trend, the correlation coefficient increases to 0.41 ( P  < 0.001). Our analysis indicates that the increasing trend contributes approximately 21% of the total anomalous moisture flux convergence over Pakistan (Supplementary Fig. 7 ), potentially intensifying the rainfall. Particularly revealing features are the long-term trend of moisture flux over the Arabian Sea and from the Bay of Bengal to the northern Indian subcontinent, which led to the significant moisture flux convergence trend over Pakistan and northwestern India.

Furthermore, anticyclonic and warming trends have been observed over the western and eastern Eurasian continent. The anticyclonic trend in the eastern Eurasian continent is associated with an easterly flux trend over the northern Indian subcontinent (Supplementary Fig. 6b, c ). When removing the linear trend from the 2022 anomalies, we observe weaker anomalous highs over Europe and central China, as well as a weaker low-level easterly anomaly south of the Tibetan Plateau (Supplementary Fig. 6d–f ). These findings suggest that the recent trends have contributed to both the observed Eurasian anomalies and the extreme rainfall in Pakistan.

The intensifying trend of the southerly moisture flux over the Arabian Sea is likely a result of the enhanced land–sea contrast and the warming Arabian Sea in recent decades (Supplementary Fig. 6b, c ). The extratropical land has experienced faster warming compared to the ocean, particularly in central Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Arabian Sea (Supplementary Fig. 6c ). This increased land–sea contrast is speculated to lead to a stronger southerly flow over the Arabian Sea, allowing it to penetrate further into central Asia and the Arabian Peninsula. With the warmer SST in the Arabian Sea that would encourage more evaporation, the moisture flux trend could become even more significant. The intensified moisture transport from the Arabian Sea, combined with the lifting effect of the topography, could create strong upward motion near mountains (Supplementary Fig. 8 ), making a significant contribution to the rainfall in Pakistan.

Linkage between the flooding in Pakistan and heatwave in China and Europe

Another distinct feature of the 2022 Pakistan flooding is the linkage with the heatwaves in Europe and China (Fig. 4 ) through the Rossby wave-like perturbations over Eurasia. The linkage with the European heatwave was noted in the 2010 event 7 . The Pakistan rainfall was also connected with an East Asian heatwave in 2010 28 . However, the heatwaves primarily occurred in northeastern Asia (i.e., Korea and Japan), and the strength and coverage of heatwaves were much weaker and smaller, respectively, compared to 2022. In comparison, the linkage with the central China heatwave in 2022 was a more special characteristic. Figure 4a, b shows Hovmöller diagrams (averaged over 25°−35°N) of anomalous T2m and precipitation in 2022, respectively. The flooding in Pakistan (63°–73°E) was accompanied by a negative T2m anomaly (90°–120°E). In contrast, an opposite situation occurred in central China. The correlation coefficient between PKT rainfall and central China T2m (25°–35°N, 90°–120°E) indices is 0.44 ( P  < 0.01) during 1979–2021.

a Hovmöller diagram of daily 2-m temperature (T2m, shading; unit: °C) anomaly (with 3-day moving mean) averaged over 25°–35°N during June–August 2022. b Same as ( a ), but for precipitation (PR, shading; unit: mm day –1 ). c Regression coefficients of July–August averaged T2m (shading) on the normalized PKT index during 1979–2021. Black dots indicate the regression coefficients exceeding 90% confidence level based on Student’s t test. d Same as ( c ), but for precipitation (shading) and 500-hPa geopotential height (contour; interval: 1.5). Shadings and slashed regions indicate the regression coefficients exceed 90% confidence level based on Student’s t test.

In the subsequent analysis, we regressed T2m, precipitation, and geopotential height in the Eurasian continent upon the July–August average rainfall index over Pakistan (Fig. 4c, d ). A teleconnection pattern of the temperature and geopotential height, extending from Europe to East Asia, reveals that the Pakistan rainfall was significantly correlated with the T2m and geopotential height fluctuations in central China and northeastern Europe, where heatwaves occurred in 2022. Specifically, the PKT rainfall index was temporally correlated with averaged T2m and H500 over central China (25°–35°N, 90°–120°E; T2m: cc = 0.44, P  < 0.01; H500: cc = 0.57, P  < 0.0001) and northeastern Europe (60°–70°N, 40°–60°E; T2m: cc = 0.33, P  < 0.05; H500: cc = 0.28, P  < 0.1). Notably, the T2m in central China was highly correlated with the spatially-based heatwave index (see “Methods”; cc = 0.79, P  < 0.0001), which also showed a significant correlation with the PKT rainfall (cc = 0.39, P  < 0.01). In addition, the rainfall in Pakistan was significantly correlated with negative precipitation anomalies in central China and with positive anomalies in South Asia and northern China. The teleconnection pattern shows a close resemblance to observed anomalies in 2022, indicating that the connection between climate anomalies in Europe and Asia in 2022 did not occur coincidentally; instead, it has existed for more than four decades but emerged more strongly in 2022.

We further investigated whether the observed anomalies simply reflected a known teleconnection pattern. The first possibility is the Scandinavia (SCA) pattern 29 , 30 , which has previously been reported to influence the heatwaves in northeast Asia 31 (Supplementary Fig. 9a ). However, the high-latitude anomalies (with positive anomaly centered ~50°E and negative anomaly centered ~100°E) in 2022 (Fig. 1c ) exhibit an eastward shift compared with the SCA pattern (with positive anomaly centered ~20°E and negative anomaly centered ~80°E), and the SCA pattern shows no significant correlation with Pakistan rainfall (cc = –0.08, P  = 0.60). Another candidate is the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern (Supplementary Fig. 9b ), which occurred in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer 32 . While the CGT is also significantly correlated with Pakistan rainfall (cc = 0.41, P  < 0.01), its spatial structure differs from that of the 2022 event and the long-term regression shown in Fig. 4d . For example, the wave-like pattern of the CGT upstream of Pakistan is shifted westward by about 50° longitude compared to the 2022 anomaly (Fig. 1c ) and the regressed pattern (Fig. 4d ). In addition, we noted some similarities between the regression pattern and the British–Okhotsk Corridor (BOC) pattern 33 . However, there are distinct differences, such as the shorter wavelength (or spatial scale) and the northward shift of the negative anomaly toward Siberia in the BOC pattern compared to the PKT regression pattern. A series of calculation of 25-year sliding correlation, anomaly pattern correlation coefficient, and comparison of pattern characteristics with the BOC were conducted. Whereas the relevance between the two cannot be entirely ruled out, the comparison did not yield the conclusion that the PKT regression pattern was the reflection of the BOC. Our study reveals that the CGT, Scandinavia, and BOC pattern could not clearly explain the PKT pattern. Whether it is an emerging pattern having increasing influences on Pakistan and China precipitation is noteworthy and warrants further investigation.

Analysis of wave activity flux 34 revealed an extratropical stationary Rossby wave-like perturbation in July and August. In July, the wave-like perturbation primarily propagated its energy eastward in high latitudes (Fig. 5a ). By contrast, the perturbation in August originated from the Europe blocking, propagated southeastward to central Asia and central China, and then turned northeastward toward the extratropical North Pacific (Fig. 5b ). Positive stream function anomalies (i.e., blocking or ridges) were associated with heatwaves in Europe and China, while negative anomalies (i.e., deepened troughs) were associated with third monsoon surge, contributing approximately half of Pakistan rainfall. Whereas the wave-like pattern in July exhibited different characteristics, perturbations similar to that in August, and a regression pattern did exist in early July during the first rainfall surge (e.g., 5–11 July, Supplementary Fig. 2 ). The regression pattern prevailed persistent through August but appeared more transiently in July. As a result, the monthly mean in July exhibited different distributions. These findings indicate that the heatwaves and flooding in 2022 were linked by anomalous Rossby wave-like activity, in August and in certain period of July when heavy rainfall occurred in Pakistan.

a July 1st to 31st averaged anomalous 200-hPa Rossby wave source (shading; unit: 10 –11  s –2 ), stream function (contour; unit:10 6  m 2  s –1 ; interval: 3) and wave activity flux (vectors; unit: m 2  s –2 ; minimum vector: 25). b Same as ( a ), but for August 1st to 31st.

A recent study has also reported the importance of Rossby wave-like teleconnection in linking Pakistan (western South Asia) and China (East Asia) 1 . This study argued that the anomalous upper-level anticyclone associated with the China heatwave creates an easterly anomaly in its southern flank. This easterly flow, exceptionally strong and reversing the climatological westerly flow in the subtropical Tibetan Plateau, corresponds to anomalous ascending and descending motions in the eastern (Pakistan) and western (China) Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The observed ascending (descending) motion aligns with the anomalous rainfall (heatwave) in Pakistan (China). This interpretation however did not reveal causality. Our simulation partially supported this argument by demonstrating that the diabatic heating over Pakistan, likely in response to upstream wave activity from Europe, can induce an anticyclonic anomaly over central and southwest China, thereby sustaining the ridging activity and heatwave in China (Supplementary Fig. 5b ). However, the model response exhibits a low-level westerly anomaly south of the Tibetan Plateau, consistent with the near-field baroclinic vertical structure response. This suggests a weakening effect on the observed low-level easterly flow, which is more likely associated with the typical equivalent barotropic vertical structure of extratropical perturbations.

Supplementary Fig. 5 also indicates that excessive precipitation in Pakistan can enhance the observed anticyclonic anomaly over China, Pakistan, and the Middle East, and also the southwesterly flow in the Arabian Sea. This result suggests that whereas the Pakistan heavy rainfall was induced by compounding effects of several influencing factors, its excessive heating could have positive feedback to further enhance the observed anomalies and heavy rainfall itself. The 2022 Pakistan flooding seemed to be a result of complicated and intertwined large-scale features and local heating that interacted rigorously. Further comprehensive investigations, employing carefully designed numerical experiments, are necessary to precisely identify the underlying physical processes.

In this study, we investigated the causes of the record rainfall in Pakistan during the boreal summer of 2022 and its linkage to the heatwaves in Europe and China. The record rainfall event was characterized by three distinct monsoon surges, which involved the northward propagation of deep convection from the Arabian Sea. Our analysis revealed that multiple large-scale factors contributed to the occurrence of these extreme rainfall events, as schematically illustrated in Fig. 6 . The compounding effects of influencing factors were similar to those identified for the 2010 Pakistan flooding. It could be viewed as an intensified manifestation of the 2010 Pakistan flooding event under a warming trend.

(1) La Niña enhanced the WNPSH and the low-level easterly anomalies (black arrows). (2) Tropical–extratropical interaction: Europe blocking-associated cold-dry northerly wind (blue dotted arrows) converged with the warm-wet southerly flow (red dotted arrows) over Pakistan. The H-L-H indicates the high-level atmospheric teleconnection pattern linking Europe and China heatwaves and Pakistan flooding, which appeared persistently in August and more transiently in July when heavy rainfall occurred in Pakistan. (3) Enhanced southerly from the Arabian Sea, which was intensified by an upward trend in recent decades (yellow large arrow under red dotted arrows). (4) Topographic lifting effect (black arrows with upward curve) intensified upward motion over Pakistan. The gray-filled triangles represent mountains.

The unusually strong easterly anomaly induced by La Niña over the northern Indian subcontinent, along with an enhanced southerly flow from the Arabian Sea (which was further amplified by an upward trend), resulting in a strong convergence of moisture flux, promoting the development of intense convection and heavy rainfall. The third and prolonged surge in August was particularly influenced by the interaction between an unusually warm-moist southerly flow from the Arabian Sea and an extratropical cold-dry northerly anomaly associated with upstream Europe blocking. Furthermore, the tropical–extratropical interaction played a significant role, contributing approximately 50% of the total rainfall during the third surge.

It is important to note that these contributing factors generally occur independently and rarely coincide simultaneously, which explains the infrequency of such extreme events. We argue that only when these compounding factors occur concurrently can they lead to the manifestation of extreme events 26 . As demonstrated in Fig. 7 , the proposed factors, including the anomalous mid-upper geopotential heights in Europe and central China, the 850-hPa meridional moisture flux over the Arabian Sea, the easterly winds over the northern Indian subcontinent, and the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region, synchronized and reached unusually high values in 2022, setting it apart from other years. This was also the case in the 2010 Pakistan flooding event, as well as in the extremely dry 1987 when all factors synchronized in a negative phase.

The stacked bars (refer to left y axis) are normalized indices of 500-hPa geopotential height (H500) averaged over Central China (CC; 25°–35°N, 90°–120°E; yellow), H500 averaged over Northeastern Europe (NEU; 55°–70°N, 35°–60°E; orange), 850-hPa meridional moisture flux (Vq850) over Arabian Sea (AS; 5°–20°N, 55°–70°E; light gray), zonal wind (U850) over northern Indian subcontinent (NI; 20°–30°N, 70°–90°E; blue), and sea surface temperature (SST) in Niño3.4 region (N34; 5°S–5°N, 170°–120°W; deep gray). Note that NI and N34 indices were multiplied by “–1”. The black solid and dashed lines (refer to right y axis) are normalized indices of precipitation (PR; from GPCP) and land-only precipitation (PR-land; from CRU) averaged over Pakistan (PKT; 22°–32°N, 63°–73°E), respectively.

Notably, the SSTA in the Niño3/Niño3.4 regions exhibited fluctuations throughout the period of 2020–2022, with the July–August averaged SSTA in these regions being relatively weaker and more confined to the east in 2021 compared to 2022 and 2020 (not shown). This likely limited the impact of the 2021 La Niña on the rainfall in Pakistan, in contrast to the impacts observed in 2022 and 2020. Furthermore, a noteworthy difference in the SSTA of 2022, as compared to those in 2020 and 2021, was the westward shift of negative and stronger SSTA. This westward shift was more influential in 2022 than in the other 2 years.

The concurrence of flooding in Pakistan and the heatwave in central China suggests a potential mutual enhancement between wet and dry extremes. Our analysis supports this hypothesis by revealing a potential positive feedback between the two extremes (Fig. 4 and Supplementary Fig. 5 ). Specifically, the ascending motion associated with flooding in Pakistan and the descending motion associated with the heatwave in China were coupled.

Numerical experiments indicate that the anomalous rainfall in Pakistan may trigger an upper-level anticyclone downstream, strengthening the anticyclone associated with the China heatwave. Conversely, the upper-level anticyclonic anomaly associated with the heatwave exhibited an equivalent barotropic structure, with an associated easterly anomaly extending from the upper troposphere to the lower troposphere (not shown). This easterly anomaly was suggested to be correlated with the ascending motion in Pakistan 1 . However, the specific feedback processes between the China heatwave and Pakistan rainfall remain unclear and require further investigation.

The equivalent barotropic vertical structure is typical for extratropical Rossby wave-like perturbations, suggesting the extratropical origin of the anomalous anticyclone as part of the teleconnection pattern shown in Fig. 4d . The compounding effect of extratropical and La Niña-associated perturbations, with the upper-level components over central China potentially further enhanced by diabatic heating over Pakistan, contributes to the complexity of the interaction. However, the exact nature of how the China heatwave influences the Pakistan rainfall remains uncertain and warrants additional research.

The regression analysis and wave activity flux revealed a teleconnection between the Europe blocking, flooding in Pakistan, and the heatwave in China, which is mediated by a stationary Rossby wave-like pattern. This wave-like structure is distinct from the SCA and CGT patterns. We noted some similarities between this wav-like structure and the BOC pattern 4 . However, some substantial differences were identified. It remains uncertain whether these patterns are precisely the same. Further investigation is required. The occurrence of climate extremes in Europe, Pakistan, and China, similar to the 2022 event, may become more frequent if this wave-like pattern becomes more active in the future, particularly under warmer conditions. Further investigation is needed to understand the mechanism driving this wave-like pattern and its potential impacts on climate extremes across the Eurasian continent.

It has been reported that weather and climate extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of a warming climate 35 , 36 . Our findings suggest that the record rainfall observed in Pakistan in 2022 may be a footprint of a warming climate. The enhanced southwesterly flow over the Arabian Sea, which played a critical role in facilitating strong moisture flux convergence, and this enhancement can be attributed to recent trends. Under an extreme warming climate, further investigation is needed to understand the potential changes in the southwesterly flow over the Arabian Sea and its possible impact on tropical–extratropical interaction and extreme weather events in these regions.

We used the daily precipitation data (with horizontal resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°) from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Unified-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation 37 and monthly precipitation data (with horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°) from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project 38 (GPCP; version 2.3) and Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series 39 (CRU; version ts4.07). We utilized the ERA5 daily and monthly data 40 , including horizontal winds, geopotential height, and specific humidity, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in diagnostics. The original horizontal resolution of ERA5 data is 0.25° × 0.25°. For consistency of calculation and coordination of figures, we regridded the ERA5 data to a horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°. In addition, we used monthly sea surface temperature data (with horizontal resolution of 2° × 2°) of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature 41 (ERSST, version 5) and daily interpolated outgoing longwave (OLR) radiation data (with horizontal resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°) of NOAA 42 .

Blocking index

Blocking index 43 was calculated to identify atmospheric blocking that often accompanies prolonged heatwaves. For the Northern Hemisphere, the blocking index (BI) was defined based on the 500-hPa geopotential height gradient south:

where Z is 500-hPa geopotential height, λ and φ is longitude and latitude, respectively. A blocking is identified at a given longitude and a specific time when at least one value of Δ satisfy that BI > 0 (units: m/degree latitude).

Heatwave index

We first calculated the value of 95th percentile of daily averaged 2-m temperature at each grid during 1979–2022. The heatwave index was then defined as the total number of grids exceeding the 95th percentile in the 20°N–40°N, 80°E–120°E region.

Statistical test of correlation coefficient

The Fisher’s Z-transformation was used for the statistical test of the Pearson correlation coefficient.

Regression analysis

We calculated regression coefficients to estimate the relationship between two monthly mean time series. The linear regression model is expressed as Y i  =  α  +  βX i  +  ε , where X i and Y i are variables being examined, α is the intercept, β is the slope (regression coefficient), and ε is the residual.

Percentile rank

The percentile rank is expressed as a whole number between 1 and 99 and is used to evaluate the precipitation intensity and T2m as the percentage of scores in a reference group that is lower than a given score of interest.

Idealized heating experiments

We used the LBM to conduct idealized heating experiments 44 . The model was forced by an idealized heating over Pakistan (centering at 29°N, 68°E) to simulate atmospheric responses in the August climatological background flow. The 200- and 850-hPa geopotential heights and horizontal winds from the day-30 output were analyzed.

Data availability

The CPC and GPCP precipitation data were provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their websites at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html and https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html , respectively. The ERA5 reanalysis data was obtained from Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) and is available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels-monthly-means?tab=form . The ERSST sea surface data was from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html . The NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation data was from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.olrcdr.interp.html .

Code availability

All the computer codes used to generate the results and figures in this study are available from the authors upon request. All figures were generated by using the MATLAB and Statistics Toolbox Release 2021b version 9.11.0.1769968 with the M_MAP mapping package version 1.4 m ( https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/~rich/map.html ), and the NCAR Command Language (NCL) ( https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/ ) version 6.3.0.

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Acknowledgements

This study was in memory of Dr. Masao Kanamitsu, who gave C.-C.H. a crucial push in his first research visit. This study was supported by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC), Taiwan (R.O.C.), under grant numbers 109-2111-M-845-001, 110-2111-M-845-001, 111-2625-M-845-001, and 111-2811-M-001-093. The authors are grateful to the National Center for High-Performance Computing (NCHC), National Applied Research Laboratories (NARLabs) for providing computer facilities. This manuscript was edited by Wallace Academic Editing.

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C.-C.H. and H.-H.H. conceptualized the study. A.-Y.H. and C.-C.C. contributed to data analysis. W.-L.T. conducted model experiments. C.-C.H. prepared the first draft, H.-H.H. provided critical suggestions in revision, and A.-Y.H. and M.-M.L. participated in revision. All authors contributed to review and improve the manuscript and approve the final manuscript.

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Hong, CC., Huang, AY., Hsu, HH. et al. Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6 , 163 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00492-2

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One year on—the persistent plight of the 2022 floods on health in Pakistan

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• Peer review
• Mohammad R Ali , PhD fellow 1 2 3 ,
• Syed W Javed , health adviser 4 ,
• Zafar Iqbal , associate medical director public health 3 5 ,
• Muhammad Sartaj , senior public health adviser 4
• 1 Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, UK
• 2 Faculty of Public Health, Special Interest Group: Disasters and Humanitarian Response
• 3 Faculty of Public Health, Special Interest Group: Pakistan
• 4 UK Health Security Agency, International Health Regulations (IHR) Strengthening Project, Pakistan
• 5 Midlands Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust, St Georges Hospital, Stafford, UK

A year after the floods that devastated Pakistan, action must be taken to prepare for and mitigate the health and environmental damage caused by climate change, write Mohammad Rizwan Ali and colleagues

People in Pakistan continue to suffer one year after the disastrous flooding of July 2022. Monsoon rains unleashed significant floods that wreaked havoc on the lives of 33 million people—more than one sixth of Pakistan’s population—and over 1000 lives were lost. 1 The economic impact was estimated at $30bn, requiring $16bn for reconstruction alone. 2 These challenges are compounded by Pakistan’s severe economic downturn, characterised by high inflation, limited mechanisms to mitigate the decline in citizens’ purchasing power, and low economic resilience. 3 4 Climate related flooding has transformed land once arable for rice and wheat cultivation into floodplains, depriving many individuals of their livelihoods and exacerbating food scarcity.

Challenges in accessing clean water and food add to significant health concerns. The situation is dire for the millions of people who lack access to safe and clean water. 5 This is exacerbated by summer temperatures of up to 51°C, 6 some of the highest globally. 7 Running water is scarce. Groundwater usually extracted through tube wells is now inaccessible because of flooding, and available water is at risk of contamination. Recent estimates have shown that 10.5 million people, particularly children, are facing food insecurity. 8 The prevalence of malnutrition has necessitated immediate public health interventions and targeted education on breastfeeding and infant feeding, 9 given that 44% of children in the country have stunted growth attributed to malnutrition. 10

Comprehending the health emergency in Pakistan after the flooding required rapid implementation of robust data collection methods to assess the health situation. Efforts were made to quantify the extent of ill health in flooded areas in real time. This allowed health professions to identify outbreaks of acute diarrheal and respiratory illness, skin diseases, and malaria across different regions of the country. 11

Varying healthcare provision across regions has led to significant disparities in the incidence and prevalence of communicable diseases such as cholera and malaria, which persist a year after the floods. Such discrepancies have disproportionately affected the Sindh region, which has inadequate healthcare infrastructure, primarily because of economic deprivation. Despite the use of data systems for targeting resources, the failing health infrastructure, weak coordination mechanism, and lack of funding severely hindered an effective response to the floods.

Numerous aid agencies attempted to organise an international response shortly after the floods. But lack of coordination between them and the state sectors in Pakistan meant this was suboptimal. The probability of future serious flooding in Pakistan is high—up to 72% in 2023 12 —and recent monsoons have caused additional loss of life. 13 Funding for healthcare is insufficient. 8 Inadequate healthcare provision, particularly in rural areas and those with low incomes, exacerbates the effects of natural disasters in Pakistan. Identifying those at highest risk and increasing the resilience of local health systems are vital steps. This includes determining regions acutely at risk for further flooding by using climate disaster modelling. 14 Mitigation strategies must prioritise upstream prevention, implement effective interventions, identify healthcare provisions, and ensure the rapid delivery of aid in disasters. A more coordinated and well funded response is urgently needed to recover after the 2022 floodings and prepare for future incidents. This means establishing a resilient healthcare infrastructure that can adapt to climate change, and includes local laboratories, primary care facilities, and transportation networks.

Pakistan is among the most water stressed countries in the world, but opportunities exist to stabilise water levels in the long term. Careful planning and climate resilient agriculture practices will help Pakistan adapt to the changing climate. These practices include educating farmers in water-stressed areas to use new technologies and acquire specialised training in cultivating crops 15 16 such as rice, wheat, and maize. 17 18 This should be combined with sustainable groundwater management, using floodings to replenish low groundwater levels 15 Insights from other countries that have successfully implemented interventions will be valuable, particularly as monsoon seasons intensify. Examples include the Netherlands, which has created more capacity for rivers to accommodate floodwaters, 19 Japan, where underground tunnels and reservoirs have been constructed, 20 or the US, where “at risk” land has been purchased by the government and converted into natural floodplain areas. 21

The need to strengthen healthcare and infrastructure in Pakistan is urgent, as is an adequate response to future crises and mitigation of the worst effects of climate disasters. In 2022, some rapid and successful efforts were made to quantify health issues in flood-affected regions. But the state of ill health in Pakistan has worsened because of climate change, 10 driven by lack of trauma care resources 22 and inadequate healthcare provision, particularly for children. 23 Enhanced stakeholder coordination between the Pakistan government, aid agencies, and local and national healthcare providers and increased funding are essential for providing adequate healthcare and protecting vulnerable populations from crises driven by climate change. Concerns remain about future climate driven events, especially among those who have already experienced their consequences. With a high probability of recurrence, global communities must learn from these events and take proactive measures.

Competing interest statement: All authors declare no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years.

Provenance and peer review: not commissioned; not externally peer reviewed.

• ↵ World Health Organization. Major health risks unfolding amid floods in Pakistan. 2022. http://www.emro.who.int/pak/pakistan-news/major-health-risks-unfolding-amid-floods-in-pakistan.html
• ↵ World Bank. Pakistan: flood damages and economic losses over USD 30 billion and reconstruction needs over USD 16 billion—new assessment. 2022. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/28/pakistan-flood-damages-and-economic-losses-over-usd-30-billion-and-reconstruction-needs-over-usd-16-billion-new-assessme
• ↵ Asian Development Bank. Pakistan economic recovery rests on resuming robust reforms. 2023. https://www.adb.org/news/pakistan-economic-recovery-rests-resuming-robust-reforms-adb
• ↵ Haider K. Pakistan’s inflation outpaces Sri Lanka as Asia’s fastest. Bloomberg 2023. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-02/pakistan-s-inflation-hits-record-with-no-sign-yet-of-imf-funds
• ↵ UNICEF. More than 10 million people, including children, living in Pakistan’s flood-affected areas still lack access to safe drinking water. 2023. https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/more-10-million-people-including-children-living-pakistans-flood-affected-areas
• ↵ Jacobabad: World’s hottest city in Pakistan now under water. Al Jazeera 2022 Aug 31. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/31/furnace-to-flood-worlds-hottest-city-in-pakistan-under-water
• ↵ Coleman J. Climate change made South Asian heatwave 30 times more likely. Nature 2022. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01444-1
• ↵ OCHA. Pakistan: 2022 monsoon floods—situation report no. 17. Pakistan. 2023. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-2022-monsoon-floods-situation-report-no-17-12-june-2023
• ↵ Abidi SMA. The urgent need to address child malnutrition in rural areas of Pakistan: lessons from the 2022 floods. J Pediatr Health Care 2023 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089152452300127X
• Malik MHBA ,
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• ↵ The Nation. NDMA predicts more devastating floods this year. The Nation 2023. https://www.nation.com.pk/12-Apr-2023/ndma-predicts-more-devastating-floods-this-year
• ↵ France-Presse A. At least 50 dead in Pakistan monsoon floods since end of June. Guardian 2023 Jul 7. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/07/pakistan-monsoon-floods-punjab-province-deaths
• ↵ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “Climate-Smart” agriculture: policies, practices and financing for food security, adaptation and mitigation. 2010. https://www.fao.org/3/i1881e/i1881e00.htm
• Emerick K ,
• ↵ Lakhani N. The race against time to breed a wheat to survive the climate crisis. Guardian 2022 Jun 12. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/12/wheat-breeding-climate-crisis-drought-resistant
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• ↵ World Food Programme. WFP Pakistan floods situation report. 2023. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/wfp-pakistan-floods-situation-report-17-july-2023

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Water Crisis in Pakistan: Manifestation, Causes and the Way Forward

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Climate Change and Water Crises in Pakistan: Implications on Water Quality and Health Risks

Affiliations.

• 1 Director Area Study Centre (China), NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan.
• 2 Department of International Relations, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan.
• 3 HoD Media and Communication Studies, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan.
• PMID: 36458129
• PMCID: PMC9708371
• DOI: 10.1155/2022/5484561

Pakistan is vulnerable and most affected by adverse impacts of climate change. The study examines the impact of climate change on Pakistan during the year 2022, resulting into unprecedented heatwave and drought in summers followed by the abnormal rains and floods during monsoon season. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which has been devastated by both drought and floods. While the flood water is gradually receding, the stagnant contaminated water is causing several health risks for the inhabitants. This research argues that water security is the emerging national security challenge for Pakistan. The article investigates the status of water availability vis-a-vis the burgeoning population, agriculture, and other uses of water. Impact of abnormal melting of glaciers, nonavailability of dams for storage of rainwater, and lack of smart means for agriculture water have been examined to empirically validate the arguments.

Copyright © 2022 Waseem Ishaque et al.

• Climate Change*
• Water Quality*

Pakistan: Flood Damages and Economic Losses Over USD 30 billion and Reconstruction Needs Over USD 16 billion - New Assessment

Post-disaster needs assessment calls for urgent support to implement a recovery and reconstruction that ‘builds back better’.

ISLAMABAD, October 28, 2022 - A damage, loss, and needs assessment following the unprecedented floods in Pakistan calls for ‘ building back better ’, based on the principles of the poor first , transparency, inclusion, and climate resilience. The assessment estimates total damages to exceed USD 14.9 billion, and total economic losses to reach about USD 15.2 billion. Estimated needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction in a resilient way are at least USD 16.3 billion , not including much needed new investments beyond the affected assets, to support Pakistan’s adaptation to climate change and overall resilience of the country to future climate shocks.

Housing ; Agriculture and Livestock ; and Transport and Communications sectors suffered the most significant damage, at USD 5.6 billion, USD 3.7 billion, and USD 3.3 billion, respectively. Sindh is the worst affected province with close to 70 percent of total damages and losses, followed by Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab.

The Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives led the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) , which was conducted jointly with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the European Union (EU), the United Nations agencies with technical facilitation by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the World Bank. The PDNA, in addition to estimating damages, economic losses and recovery and reconstruction needs, also assesses broader macro-economic and human impacts and recommends principles along which to develop a comprehensive recovery and reconstruction framework.

The floods affected 33 million people and more than 1730 lost their lives . They are particularly impacting the poorest and most vulnerable districts. The situation is still evolving, with flood waters stagnant in many areas, causing water-borne and vector-borne diseases to spread, and more than 8 million displaced people now facing a health crisis . The crisis thus risks having profound and lasting impacts on lives and livelihoods. Loss of household incomes, assets, rising food prices, and disease outbreaks are impacting the most vulnerable groups. Women have suffered notable losses of their livelihoods, particularly those associated with agriculture and livestock.

The PDNA Human Impact Assessment highlights that the national poverty rate may increase by 3.7 to 4.0 percentage points, potentially pushing between 8.4 and 9.1 million more people below the poverty line .

Multidimensional poverty can potentially increase by 5.9 percentage points, implying that an additional 1.9 million households are at risk of being pushed into non-monetary poverty.

Compounding the existing economic difficulties facing the country, the 2022 floods are expected to have a significant adverse impact on output, which will vary substantially by region and sector. Loss in gross domestic product (GDP) as a direct impact of the floods is projected to be around 2.2 percent of FY22 GDP . The agriculture sector is projected to contract the most, at 0.9 percent of GDP. The damage and losses in agriculture will have spillover effects on the industry, external trade and services sectors.

The Government is providing immediate relief to the impacted communities and supporting the early recovery, while aiming to ensure macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. Moving forward, as recovery and reconstruction spending rises, the loss in output could be mitigated. Yet, significant international support will be needed to complement Pakistan’s own commitment to increase domestic revenue mobilization and save scarce public resources, and to reduce the risk of exacerbating macroeconomic imbalances. 

Although the early loss and damage estimates may increase as the situation is continuously evolving on the ground, the PDNA lays the groundwork for an agenda for recovery and reconstruction that is designed to build back a better future for the most affected people in Pakistan . While the recovery will require massive efforts for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, buildings and livelihoods, it will also be an opportunity to strengthen institutions and governance structures.

The report puts forth recommendations for developing a comprehensive recovery framework. While the primary focus will be on the affected areas, such framework presents an opportunity to embed systemic resilience to natural hazards and climate change in Pakistan’s overall development planning. This tragic disaster can be a turning point, where climate resilience and adaptation, increased domestic revenue mobilization and better public spending, and public policies and investments better targeted to the most vulnerable populations; all figure at the core of policy making going forward .

In the short term, targeted mechanisms such as social assistance and emergency cash transfers, provision of emergency health services, and programs to restore shelter and restart local economic activities, particularly in agriculture, should be prioritized. Reconstruction and rehabilitation should rest on key principles of: participatory, transparent, inclusive, and green recovery for long-term resilience—“ building back better ”; pro-poor, pro-vulnerable, and gender sensitive, targeting the most affected; strong coordination of government tiers and implementation by the lowest appropriate level; synergies between humanitarian effort and recovery; and a sustainable financing plan .

Given Pakistan’s limited fiscal resources, significant international support and private investment will be essential for a comprehensive and resilient recovery. The Pakistani authorities are committed to accelerate reforms to generate additional domestic fiscal resources and improve efficiency and targeting of public spending. Beyond the immediate needs of floods reconstruction, these reforms, while protecting the most vulnerable, will be important to generate fiscal space to invest more broadly into more climate-resilient infrastructure and adaptation to climate change, as well as to build buffers to face future shocks, while addressing macroeconomic imbalances. This commitment of the Government will also be key to mobilize further international support as well as to unlock private sector sources of financing—both of which will be absolutely critical to face the current climate change-induced shock.

The ADB, the EU, the UNDP and the World Bank are fully committed to working with the Government and people of Pakistan during the ensuing recovery phase, and to increase the country’s climate resilience.

• World Bank Mariam Altaf Tel : +92 (51) 9090000 [email protected]

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The crisis of water shortage and pollution in Pakistan: risk to public health, biodiversity, and ecosystem

• Trend Editorial
• Published: 11 February 2019
• Volume 26 , pages 10443–10445, ( 2019 )

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• Ghulam Nabi 1 , 2 ,
• Murad Ali 3 , 4 ,
• Suliman Khan 1 , 2 &
• Sunjeet Kumar 1 , 2  

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Dear Editor,

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan ranked third among the countries facing severe water shortage. In May 2018, the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) announced that by 2025, there will be very little or no clean water available in the country (Shukla 2018 ). It must be noted that while per capita availability in the 1950s was approximately 5000 m 3 per annum, it has now declined to below 1000 m 3 , which is an internationally recognized threshold of water scarcity (Aziz et al. 2018 ). Currently, only 20% of the country’s population has access to clean drinking water. The remaining 80% populations depends on polluted water primarily contaminated by sewerage (fecal, total coliforms, E. coli colonies), and secondarily by fertilizer, pesticides, and industrial effluents (Daud et al. 2017 ; Sahoutara 2017 ). Such water pollution is responsible for approximately 80% of all diseases and 30% of deaths (Daud et al. 2017 ). In the dried-out pipeline, a single E. coli bacterium can multiply into trillions in just a week (Ebrahim 2017 ), and such pipes are used for the water supply without any treatment. Consuming such polluted waters has not only resulted in the death of several people, but also cause bone and teeth diseases, diarrhea, dysentery, typhoid, hepatitis, cancer, and other waterborne diseases (Daud et al. 2017 ). According to World Health Organization (WHO), waterborne diarrheal diseases are responsible for over 2 million deaths annually across the world, with the majority occurring in children under 5 years (WHO 2018 ).

In Pakistan, approximately 60 million people are at risk of being affected by high concentrations of arsenic in drinking water; the largest mass poisoning in history (Guglielmi 2017 ). Arsenic poisoning can cause cancer, restrictive pulmonary disease, skin lesions, cardiovascular problems, diabetes mellitus, gangrene, neurological impairments, and problems in endocrine glands, immunity, liver, kidney, and bladder as well as socio-economic hazards (Rahman et al. 2018 ). Unfortunately, still, no epidemiological data of arsenic poisoning, alternate drinking water, and health interventions are available to the people at risk.

Taking into consideration the drought-hit deaths of approximately 1832 children in the last 4 years (The Newspaper’s Staff Reporter 2018 ), drying lakes (Ali 2015 ), rivers (Channa 2010 ), lowering water table, excessive use of water, lack of storage mechanism, population explosion, and climatic changes warrant serious attention (Kirby 2018 ). Furthermore, the lack of sound national water policy, lack of federal and provincial government’s interest, water conflict between nuclear-armed Pakistan and India (Kirby 2018 ), deforestation, the overwhelming potential threat to the country’s glacier reserves (Nabi et al. 2017 , 2018 ), and the poor water supply will likely negatively affect agriculture, ecology, and local biodiversity. The wildlife has already entered the red zone (Shaikh 2018 ) and can possibly turn into human crisis with the danger of large-scale regional migration of people due to drought-like situation. We have recommended some suggestions that could possibly help the people of Pakistan to get rid of water shortage and pollution, maintain an ecology, improve agriculture, and conserve local biodiversity.

Sound National Water Policy: An effective National Water Policy and management are needed to conserve and enhance water resources, minimize drinking water pollution, and improve the country’s water supply with proper sewerage facilities.

Switch to bottled drinking water: Although this seems to be an expensive option, but keeping in view the higher concentration of arsenic (50 μg/L) (Guglielmi 2017 ), fecal, bacterial, and other contamination in drinking water (Sahoutara 2017 ), it is time to switch to the bottled drinking water. The polluted water can be used for other household activities. Indirectly, this will also bring the attention of public towards water pollution and conservation.

Building dams: Both large- and small-scale dams are needed, but every effort must be made to minimize their social and ecological cost in terms of population displacement and shock to the existing ecosystem. Hence, small dams having minimal environmental and social cost should be prioritized whose waters can be used for drinking, agriculture, electricity, and fisheries. It will also help in the conservation of aquatic biodiversity and other animals, especially during seasonal migration. Instead of the many dams that are under consideration (Qureshi and Akıntug 2014 ), the authors report that hundreds of small dams can be built in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which is rich in both aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity and can also possibly help them in conservation by providing habitat and protection from flooding.

Reforestation: Annually, Pakistan loses approximately 2.1% of its forests. If this rate continues, Pakistan will run out of forests within the next 50 years (Randhawa 2017 ). Therefore, reforestation and its management in Pakistan are intensely needed and will help in bringing rain, stabilize climate, temperature, pollution, and siltation. It will also help in controlling recurring floods and will provide suitable habitat for the local biodiversity.

Steam-based car washing: There are hundreds of thousand car washing centers in Pakistan. They not only consume a huge amount of freshwater for cleaning, but also pose a great threat to public health, biodiversity, and ecology by polluting the rivers and environment. Switching to steam-based car washing system will not only conserve the freshwater but will also reduce the water and environmental pollution.

Artificial rain: Like China, Pakistan needs a rainmaking network throughout the country. This will help in solving the problems of water shortage, protecting the ecology, reducing natural disaster, and conserving biodiversity. China is developing the world’s largest weather-manipulating system comprising tens of thousands of fuel-burning chambers. This system will increase rainfall over an area of approximately 1.6 million square kilometers (Chen 2018 ). The friendly relation, and with the execution of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan can take advantage to establish this technology in Pakistan.

Trans-boundary level initiatives: Currently, India is damming Pakistani River water which was allocated to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty with the help of World Bank (News Desk 2018 ). Constructive bilateral discussions can help solve the problem of water shortage and threats to the rivers dependent biodiversity.

Installation of low-cost water filters: The installation of a large number of low-cost water filters throughout the country and especially in polluted areas can provide clean drinkable water to the poor people who cannot afford the expensive bottled water.

Glaciers conservation: Outside the polar region, Pakistan has the highest numbers of glaciers (> 7200) than any other country (Khan 2017 ). Unfortunately, they are melting faster than any other part of the world to an extent that by the year 2035, the country will have no more glaciers (Dawn 2013 ). Furthermore, with the execution of CPEC, humongous quantity of black carbon (Nabi et al. 2017 ) will be blown by the air to the glaciers that will further accelerate melting. Therefore, a national plan for the management of these glaciers is needed. The impact on glaciers can be minimized by allowing only electric vehicles in the nearby highways, providing solar energy systems to the local inhabitants, reforestation, and control over greenhouse gasses.

Restoring lakes. Pakistan has a total of 60 lakes and most of them are highly polluted. Due to pollution, only in Manchar Lake; Asia’s largest freshwater lakes, 14 fish species have become extinct (Ebrahim 2015 ). Restoring these lakes will provide better habitat for the biodiversity, promote ecotourism and agriculture, and water to the lake-dependent.

Regulating tube-wells drilling: Due to increase in population, demand for water increases. Whether it is domestic use, commercial or agriculture, there has been an unregulated use of tube-wells across the country where people extract as much water as they like. Because of this practice, there has been an exponential rise in the number of tube-wells due to which water table is going down in many parts of the country. Therefore, an implementation of strict policy is needed to regulate the number of tube-wells. Furthermore, in the overexploited region, artificial groundwater recharge might help to improve the water table.

Awareness: In Pakistan, water is free and therefore no attention has been given by the public to its conservation. Both on the print and electronic media, awareness is needed for water conservation. Also, as it is practiced in many countries, it is feasible to come up with a realistic water pricing mechanism to discourage its enormous waste both at household level as well as commercial level.

In summary, water scarcity and pollution are serious overwhelming threats to the world’s sixth populous country, Pakistan. The government needs to pay urgent and serious attention to water conservation and minimizing water pollution to avoid serious consequences in the form of drought, famine, internal migration, and loss of biodiversity.

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Ghulam Nabi, Suliman Khan & Sunjeet Kumar

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Department of Management Studies, University of Malakand, Chakdara, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

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Nabi, G., Ali, M., Khan, S. et al. The crisis of water shortage and pollution in Pakistan: risk to public health, biodiversity, and ecosystem. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26 , 10443–10445 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04483-w

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Received : 11 June 2018

Accepted : 05 February 2019

Published : 11 February 2019

Issue Date : 01 April 2019

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04483-w

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The floods of 2022: Economic and health crisis hits Pakistan

Pakistan is currently going through the worst-ever recorded flood crisis. The 2022 floods have created unprecedented destruction, especially in the coastal regions of the country. Almost one-third of Pakistan has drowned, merely as a consequence of climate change which is impacting many countries around the globe, with the South Asian countries at the greatest risk due to their proximity to the equator. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has reported millions of people to be affected by the catastrophic floods. The country is also going through a major economic crisis due to livestock and agriculture being destroyed, which has led to severe food shortages resulting in the flood victims being vulnerable to malnutrition as well. Health care has also been severely affected, with a serious outbreak of waterborne diseases including diarrhea, dengue fever, malaria. Thousands of pregnant women are unable to access maternity services and menstrual hygiene products are also unavailable in flood-stricken areas. The Government of Pakistan should address this urgent matter as a priority and necessary steps should be taken to try and contain this catastrophe.

Climate change is impacting many countries throughout the globe which varies according to the geographic locations, ecological conditions, and level of economic development of each country. Pakistan, a developing country is at the highest risk of facing the unfavorable effects of climate change as indicated by increased variability of monsoon, rising temperatures, melting of Himalayan glaciers, and increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather conditions and natural disasters [ 1 ].

Pakistan normally receives two to three cycles of monsoon each year, however, currently going through its eighth cycle [ 2 ]. The two of the worst-hit provinces, Sindh and Balochistan, have recorded 680.5 mm and 284 mm of rainfall which is about six times more than the average downpour this year, respectively [ 3 ]. The scale, scope, and spread of the 2022 floods have surpassed the floods of 2010, and have created unprecedented destruction in all regions of the country [ 4 ].

This paper aims to highlight and create awareness about the catastrophe caused by floods this year throughout Pakistan, urge the government to take immediate action to help the flood affectees, identify the root cause of the frequent natural disasters and introduce measures to minimize them.

The Natural Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has declared catastrophic floods a national emergency after more than 33 million people have been severely affected as the monsoon rains continue to strike the country [ 5 ]. Since mid-June, at least 1208 people have died, including 416 children, as well as 6082 injured [ 6 ]. Because of our impoverished base, this unexpected cataclysm has drowned away about one-third of Pakistan amid a prodigious amount of rainfall [ 7 ]. Although the whole country has faced the consequences, the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan have suffered the most. Sindh has witnessed the devastation of 23 districts, and thousands of houses are reported to be wrecked with more than 700 people injured, out of which at least 239 have died across the province [ 8 ]. Balochistan has also witnessed damage to the infrastructure with nearly 166 people injured and more than 263 dead [ 9 ]. Because of this widespread demolition of people's homes, more than half a million people are presently living in relief camps across the country [ 10 ]. Reports state that almost four-fifths of the total crops in Sindh have been damaged, which accounts for roughly one-third of Pakistan's total cotton crop. As a quarter of Pakistan's gross domestic product is based on the agriculture sector, the economy is bound to take a hit in an already suffering country, further aggravating the problem. Inflation touched 27.3% in august due to shrinking foreign exchange reserves, this widespread damage has conclusively left Pakistan in an economic crisis with the loss of around ten billion dollars [ 11 ].

Most of the people in the affected areas are dependent on livestock for their food and living. A 2021 study assessing the frequency of micronutrient deficiency among children in flood-affected areas of Pakistan has shown that these children possess inadequate amounts of vitamin A, calcium, zinc, iron, and iodine [ 12 ]. The recorded death of more than half a million livestock has worsened the crisis [ 13 ]. Food shortage and increase in prices are even more aggravated by the destruction of more than 129 bridges which hinders the distribution of fruit and vegetables to markets [ 14 ]. These occurrences are making flood victims more vulnerable to malnutrition. Even small-scale and relatively less destructive floods are found to severely disturb people's lives and crucially impact not only their physical health but also their mental health and comfort [ 15 ]. Among the affected ones, females are in especially dire need of appropriate facilities and treatment. The unavailability of menstrual hygiene products poses them at a dangerous risk of urinary tract infections. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), approximately 650,000 women are currently pregnant, with 73,000 close to their final month of pregnancy, and will require maternity care soon. The massive floods and ensuing widespread destruction in Pakistan have given birth to a serious outbreak of water-borne diseases as mentioned by the World Health Organization (WHO) which needs effective actions to be dealt with. In camps where water and sanitation facilities are impaired, over 134,000 diarrhea cases and 44,832 malaria cases have been reported so far. Furthermore, the incidence of eye infections and skin diseases is also rising. 101 cases of snake bites have also come into notice in flood-stricken areas [ 10 ].

Regarding the situation at hand, there is an urgent need for means of relocation for the displaced victims, and the government of Pakistan should address this matter as a priority. Non-governmental organizations should join hands with the government for the allocation of basic resources for the victims, starting with safe drinking water to curb the spread of the aforementioned water-borne diseases, drugs for treatment of the people already afflicted, and female hygiene products for the women.

It should be noted that adequate surveillance of water levels during monsoon and issuing a due warning, can make mass evacuation possible even before disaster hits, which will have a significant impact on the death toll. Keeping in mind the historical evidence regarding poor flood management in Pakistan, surveillance at a local and national level is a dire need. Investment in dams, reservoirs, and deep wells, can help prevent such a calamity in the future, as well as alleviate the ongoing power crisis in the country. Awareness campaigns aimed at wider dissemination of knowledge with regards to silent methods of disease transmissions during such times should be conducted throughout the year to educate the local population and reduce the statistics for disease spread in the following years.

With as many as nine hundred health facilities affected or destroyed, millions are deprived of medical facilities and care. Keeping in view the alarming statistics, help from international health bodies should be sought, and post-flood destruction should be contained. WHO has declared the crisis as a grade 3 emergency which is the highest level in its internal grading system, hence urgent actions from all classes of organizations are strongly required [ 16 ].

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Maham Iqbal: Concept of the study, writing the paper and final approval of the manuscript. Azkah Rabbani: Concept of the study, writing the paper and final approval of the manuscript. Fatima Haq: Concept of the study, writing the paper and final approval of the manuscript. Sunaina Bhimani: Concept of the study, writing the paper and final approval of the manuscript.

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