climate change a myth or reality essay

April 8, 2009

Is Global Warming a Myth?

How to respond to people who doubt the human impact on the climate

Dear EarthTalk: I keep meeting people who say that human-induced global warming is only theory, that just as many scientists doubt it as believe it. Can you settle the score? -- J. Proctor, London, UK

So-called “global warming skeptics” are indeed getting more vocal than ever, and banding together to show their solidarity against the scientific consensus that has concluded that global warming is caused by emissions from human activities.

Upwards of 800 skeptics (most of whom are not scientists) took part in the second annual International Conference on Climate Change—sponsored by the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank—in March 2009. Keynote speaker and Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorologist Richard Lindzen told the gathering that “there is no substantive basis for predictions of sizeable global warming due to observed increases in minor greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons.”

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Most skeptics attribute global warming—few if any doubt any longer that the warming itself is occurring, given the worldwide rise in surface temperature—to natural cycles, not emissions from power plants, automobiles and other human activity. “The observational evidence…suggests that any warming from the growth of greenhouse gases is likely to be minor, difficult to detect above the natural fluctuations of the climate, and therefore inconsequential,” says atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, an outspoken global warming skeptic and founder of the advocacy-oriented Science and Environmental Policy Project.

But green leaders maintain that even if some warming is consistent with millennial cycles, something is triggering the current change. According to the nonprofit Environmental Defense, some possible (natural) explanations include increased output from the sun, increased absorption of the sun’s heat due to a change in the Earth’s reflectivity, or a change in the internal climate system that transfers heat to the atmosphere.

But scientists have not been able to validate any such reasons for the current warming trend, despite exhaustive efforts. And a raft of recent peer reviewed studies—many which take advantage of new satellite data—back up the claim that it is emissions from tailpipes, smokestacks (and now factory farmed food animals, which release methane) that are causing potentially irreparable damage to the environment.

To wit, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences declared in 2005 that “greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise,” adding that “the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action.” Other leading U.S. scientific bodies, including the American Meteorological Society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Geophysical Union have issued concurring statements—placing the blame squarely on humans’ shoulders.

Also, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of 600 leading climate scientists from 40 nations, says it is “very likely” (more than a 90 percent chance) that humans are causing a global temperature change that will reach between 3.2 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century.

CONTACTS : Heartland Institute, www.heartland.org ; Science and Environmental Policy Project, www.sepp.org ; U.S. National Academy of Sciences, www.nas.edu; IPCC , www.ipcc.ch.

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Humans are causing global warming

Myth: There is nothing you can personally do to stop climate change.

Fact: There is something you can personally do, but you didn’t do it.

Myth: Our children will wander tornado-swept wastes strewn with the shards of a great civilization.

Fact: Typhoon-swept wastes will be more common.

Myth: Earth’s climate has changed naturally in the past, so modern climate change must also be a natural process.

Fact: Modern climate change is caused by human activity. For evidence, look at all that footage of smokestacks spewing methane, which then cuts to a time-lapse of a big traffic jam and over to a lush tree in a field rapidly desiccating as a lonesome elk walks by, and then a polar bear tumbles off a melting ice floe and is surrounded by plastic piranhas from a kids’ game that ended up in a landfill, and the child who owned it is sitting bereft in a sandbox, and the angle widens to show that the sand is actually a desert where an old-growth forest once stood, and we zoom in on a determined ant struggling across sun-baked rocks, and what’s he carrying? A scrap of paper that says “Al Gore.”

Myth: It’s a beautiful day today.

Fact: We’re all gonna die.

Myth: Between heat waves, hurricanes, fires, and floods, every summer will be a deadly reminder of our failed stewardship and darkening future.

Fact: Maybe so, but you can still relax and groove to the Song of the Summer, “(muffled screams).”

Myth: The younger generation will prioritize taking the action necessary to avert climate catastrophe.

Fact: The younger generation’s only priority is getting a bottle of Strawberry Watermelon Prime.

Myth: Wildfire smoke contains natural compounds found in evergreen roots which, when inhaled, can improve the body’s oxygen absorption.

Fact: What? Where did you hear that?

Myth: Online. Maybe Instagram Reels?

Fact: There’s no way that’s true.

Myth: Yeah, it didn’t sound right. Let me see if I can find it again. Hmm . . . no. But look—awww, it’s the Macaw Dad who has six parrot babies that snuggle in his bed.

Fact: I love that guy. But can parrots really be comfortable sleeping like that?

Myth: Sure. Look how cuddly they are.

Myth: As the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere increases, temperatures rise at an even rate across the planet.

Fact: Temperatures rise at different rates in different places. Land has warmed at about twice the rate of the ocean surface, Arctic temperatures are climbing faster than those in equatorial regions, and Ryan Gosling has never been hotter.

Myth: What about carbon capture?

Fact: You mean carbonara. It’s delicious.

Myth: Persephone, daughter of Zeus and Demeter, was gathering flowers when Hades burst from the underworld in his black chariot and abducted her. Demeter, distraught, forbade the trees to bear fruit. Zeus commanded Hades to release Persephone, and he obeyed, but only after tricking her into eating pomegranate seeds, which condemned her to spending half of every year in the underworld. It is Persephone’s annual return, and not anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, that causes global warming.

Fact: Global warming is caused by the lewd, un-Christian practices of witches and conjurers.

Myth: Humanity’s tragic flaw is that it cannot overcome its narrow provincialism to act collectively and save itself.

Fact: Humanity’s only flaw is the weird pinkie toe with the stubby nail.

Myth: Climate change will lead to human extinction.

Fact: A.I. will get us first.

Myth: After decades of resistance, it will soon be simple to transition to an all-electric transportation system.

Fact: No, because each clean-energy breakthrough will be produced by a crypto-fascist billionaire. If you want an emissionless fusion engine, you’ll have to buy it from a company owned by a land-mine heir named Gheaf Trince, who purchased the Houston Texans so he could “re-masculate the N.F.L.”

Myth: The energy it took to publish this article could have been used to plant a thousand trees.

Fact: C’mon, be cool.

Myth: There is no technological solution that can be implemented in time to reverse the effects of climate change.

Fact: We don’t know if this is true, but it can’t hurt to fly a bunch of jets to Gstaad to discuss it over Negronis. ♦

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By Elizabeth Kolbert

By Bill McKibben

By Richard Brody

Climate explained: why some people still think climate change isn’t real

Senior Researcher in Politics, Auckland University of Technology

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David Hall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Auckland University of Technology provides funding as a member of The Conversation NZ.

Auckland University of Technology provides funding as a member of The Conversation AU.

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Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.

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Why do people still think climate change isn’t real?

At its heart, climate change denial is a conflict between facts and values. People deny the climate crisis because, to them, it just feels wrong.

As I’ve argued elsewhere , acknowledging climate change involves accepting certain facts. But being concerned about climate change involves connecting these facts to values. It involves building bridges between the science of climate change and peoples’ various causes, commitments and convictions.

Denial happens when climate science rubs us up the wrong way. Instead of making us want to arrest the climate crisis, it makes us resist the very thought of it, because the facts of anthropogenic global heating clash with our personal projects.

It could be that the idea of climate change is a threat to our worldview . Or it could be that we fear society’s response to climate change, the disruption created by the transition to a low-emissions economy . Either way, climate change becomes such an “ inconvenient truth ” that, instead of living with and acting upon our worries, we suppress the truth instead.

Read more: Five climate change science misconceptions – debunked

Negating reality

Sigmund Freud and his daughter Anna were the great chroniclers of denial. Sigmund described this negation of reality as an active mental process, as “a way of taking cognisance of what is repressed”. This fleeting comprehension is what distinguishes denial from ignorance, misunderstanding or sheer disbelief. Climate change denial involves glimpsing the horrible reality, but defending oneself against it.

Contemporary social psychologists tend to talk about this in terms of “ motivated reasoning ”. Because the facts of climate science are in conflict with people’s existing beliefs and values, they reason around the facts.

When this happens – as social psychologist Jonathan Haidt memorably put it – they aren’t reasoning in the careful manner of a judge who impartially weighs up all the evidence. Instead, they’re reasoning in the manner of a defence lawyer who clutches for post hoc rationalisations to defend an initial gut instinct. This is why brow-beating deniers with further climate science is unlikely to succeed: their faculty of reason is motivated to defend itself from revising its beliefs.

A large and growing empirical literature is exploring what drives denial. Personality is a factor: people are more likely to deny climate change if they’re inclined toward hierarchy and against changes to the status quo . Demographic factors also show an effect. Internationally , people who are less educated, older and more religious tend to discount climate change, with sex and income having a smaller effect.

Read more: Climate explained: Why are climate change skeptics often right-wing conservatives?

But the strongest predictor is one’s politics. An international synthesis of existing studies found that values, ideologies and political allegiances overshadowed other factors. In Western societies, political affiliation is the key factor, with conservative voters more likely to discount climate change. Globally, a person’s commitment to democratic values – or not in the case of deniers – is more significant.

This sheds light on another side of the story. Psychology can contribute to explaining a person’s politics, but politics cannot be entirely explained by psychology. So too for denial.

The politics of denial

As the sociologist Stanley Cohen noted in his classic study of denial, there is an important distinction between denial that is personal and psychological, and denial that is institutional and organised. The former involves people who deny the facts to themselves, but the latter involves the denial of facts to others, even when these “ merchants of doubt ” know the truth very well.

It is well established that fossil fuel companies have long known about climate change, yet sought to frustrate wider public understanding. A comprehensive analysis of documentations from ExxonMobil found that, since 1977, the company has internally acknowledged climate change through the publications of its scientists, even while it publicly promoted doubt through paid advertorials. The fossil fuel industry has also invested heavily in conservative foundations and think tanks that promote contrarian scientists and improbable spins on the science.

All this is rich manure for personal denial. When a person’s motivated reasoning is on the hunt for excuses, there is an industry ready to supply them. Social media offers further opportunities for spreading disinformation . For example, a recent analysis of anonymised YouTube searches found that videos supporting the scientific consensus on climate change were outnumbered by those that didn’t.

Undoing denial

In sum, denial is repressed knowledge. For climate change, this repression occurs at both the psychological level and social level, with the latter providing fodder for the former. This is a dismal scenario , but it shines some light on the way forward.

On the one hand, it reminds us that deniers are capable of acknowledging the science – at some level, they already do – even though they struggle to embrace the practical and ethical implications. Consequently, climate communications may do well to appeal to more diverse values, particularly those values held by the deniers themselves.

Experiments have shown that, if the risks and realities of climate change are reframed as opportunities for community relationship building and societal development, then deniers can shift their views. Similarly, in the US context, appealing to conservative values like patriotism, obeying authority and defending the purity of nature can encourage conservatives to support pro-environmental actions.

On the other hand, not all deniers will be convinced. Some downplay and discount climate change precisely because they recognise that the low-emissions transition will adversely impact their interests. A bombardment of further facts and framings is unlikely to move them.

What will make a difference is the power of the people – through regulation, divestment, consumer choice and public protest. Public surveys emphasise that, throughout the world, deniers are in the minority . The worried majority doesn’t need to win over everyone in order to win on climate change.

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Global Warming: Myth or Reality?

Introduction, works cited.

The Free Online Dictionary defines a problem as “a situation, matter, or person that presents perplexity or difficulty”. A problem is thus a state or situation associated with difficulty and which needs a solution. When a problem does not receive an immediate solution, it creeps into a dilemma; an instance when possible solutions compete for possible consideration. In this essay, the writer identifies the problem of “global warming”.

Its causes, effects and occurrence are discussed as a build up to suggesting its possible solutions. United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) describes global warming as “an average increase in the Earth’s temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate”. This implies an unfavorable gradual change in the threshold atmospheric temperature as a result of imposed activities with detrimental effects on the climate of a place, a region and by extension of the globe. Global warming can thus be described as a progressive increase in the earth’s temperature as a result of a trap to greenhouse gases within its atmosphere.

These gases trap the sun’s reflected long wave radiation with a resulting increase on the atmospheric temperature. Causes of global warming are varied but can be grouped into two main categories: natural occurrences and anthropogenic (man-made) activities. Most instances of rise in temperatures across the earth are due to increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

These gases exist in minor proportions within the atmosphere and are responsible for reduction of heat loss into space. They include water vapor, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, CFCs and mixtures of the above. These gases contribute to global temperatures in a phenomenon called the greenhouse effect and are responsible for maintaining the temperature of the earth (Thomas et al, 2003). In excess, however, the gases raise the temperature of the earth to undesirable levels. Natural and human activities combine to produce these gases.

Sources of greenhouse gases in natural circumstances include volcanic activities and spatial variation in solar radiation. These were attributed to little warming effect during pre-industrial era up till around 1950 and a small cooling effect thereafter (Spencer, 2003). The industrial era has seen a tremendous increase in greenhouse effect due to emissions and activities in the industries. Current levels of CO2, for example, are approximately 100 parts per million by volume.

This is much higher than recorded concentrations just before the industrial revolution (Kiehl par 3). Specific effects on global warming by the gases are varied but their combined action is known to cause climate change in magnitudes that are worrying to the sustainability of the earth. Known and foreseeable effects of global warming on the environment and for humans are registered in climate change and also in secondary spatial and temporal regional environmental changes. Climate variations can be characterized by raising sea levels, Arctic shrinkages, glacial retreat and alterations in agricultural patterns.

Global warming is known to cause significant rise in sea level over the course of the twenty-first century. The effect of global warming on oceans and seas has been registered in rising levels. Sea-level rise is through two main processes: thermal expansion of sea water and widespread melting of land ice. Gradual heating up of the sea by the trapped long wave radiation causes the sea water to expand leading to a rise in sea level or ecstatic changes across the globe (Thomas, vol. 302).

The worldwide and rapid retreat of glaciers has been attributed to effects of global warming. This retreat affects the availability of fresh water for domestic, irrigation and recreational activities in mountainous areas. In the longer term, it affects the level of the oceans. Glaciologists have been able to ascertain the relationship between the temporal coincidence of glacier retreat and measured increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases. This points to the anthropogenic greenhouse effects on glacial retreat and its effects therein.

Except for few positive effects of global warming in agricultural practices such as enhanced rate of phototropism favorable to plants such as barley, its effects are largely negative. Scientists say that climate change poses threats to food supply. Global yields will be negatively affected since rising atmospheric temperatures, longer droughts and side-effects of both, bring about a substantial reduction in crop yields in the coming decades. This has been proved by large experiments on food production all over the world (The Independent, April 27, 2005). Africa is worst affected both because of its geography and the fact that its population (seventy per cent) rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods (Leroux 87).

In Africa, the combination of drought, overpopulation and desertification has been known to cause conflicts. Secondary and regional effects of global warming include extreme weather events, outbreak of tropical diseases, changes in seasons and ecosystem patterns as well as drastic economic impacts. The US agency in charge of environmental protection (EPA) relates augmented extreme weather events such as tsunamis, El Nino, La Nina and hurricanes to global warming. Studies by Thomas et al. (23) show that the increase in hurricanes is linked to increased temperatures as a direct result of increased greenhouse gas emissions. Tropical diseases have been on the rise thanks to changes in climatic conditions of tropical climates. Global warming extends the favorable zones for vectors conveying tropical disease such as malaria.

This has had great toll in poor countries where such diseases spread unabated due to lack of capacity to control them. In developed countries, the consequences of containing the spread of these diseases through vaccination and other vector control measures are always felt in the health budget. It is reported that in April 2008 that as a result of increased temperatures, malaria is appearing in the highland areas of Papua New Guinea, where the weathers have been too cold enough to check the spread of the disease by mosquitoes (www.irinnews.org).

Associated drastic economic impacts of global warming results from changes in known economic production processes, agriculture and ecological balance being most affected. Water scarcity as a result of drying lakes and rivers has been reported across the globe. This has a potential of shrinking economic production as a result of lack of water for irrigation, industrial use and even hydroelectric power generation. The consequences are so great to contemplate and this causes worries across countries dependent on agricultural production as their economic backbones.

High concentrations of carbon dioxide reduce photorespiration with no compensatory increase in growth after a certain threshold level. This becomes a threat to ecological productivity since plants as primary producers reduce in number. The overall effect of this is an ecological imbalance that is not commensurate to earth’s productivity.

A warmer earth leads to variations in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a range of impacts on plant life, wildlife, and humans. It is important to note that when scientists talk about climate change, their concern is about global warming caused by human activities. That humans cause global warming is in no doubt. The question of what to do about it remains quite controversial. In addressing this problem all disciplines; economics, sociology, and politics are all important factors in planning for the future and stability of the earth. A stop in emission of greenhouse gases today is not an assurance to a less warm earth tomorrow.

However, what happens from today is a means into solving what will happen from tomorrow and will create a big difference in moving towards a better, more productive globe tomorrow. The world leaders and environmental stakeholders are in agreement that stabilizing the greenhouse gases emission at around 450-550 ppm and reducing emission of industrial gases by about twice the current concentration of 380 ppm would prepare a tactical retreat towards a safer earth. Going by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s suggestions, greenhouse gas emissions would have to reduce by 50% to 80% of what they are today to be safely on track by the next century (IPCC, 2007).

Some suggestions towards this end are given below. Using vegetable oil for fuel can greatly reduce the effect of greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles and light industries. The generation of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and methane has usually been associated with the use of fossil fuels and non regulated disposals of solid waste resulting in air pollutions. The use of bio-fuels will thus ensure that production of these gases is kept at its minimal.

The idea of green homes has been muted in global environmental cycles and carries a potential environmental transformation towards lesser greenhouse gas emissions. The correct implementations are essential for the green homes to use none harmful and renewable energy solutions. Clean renewable and affordable energy confines the homeowner to use only renewable energies such as wind, wave and solar power among others. This ensures that no uncontrollable amounts of greenhouse gases get their way into the atmosphere. Individual choices also have an impact on global climate change.

Modern conveniences should not be forgotten when reducing heat trapping emissions; and only makes it smart through using energy-efficient products. This may require an additional investment before hand but often pays up in energy conservation after a very short period of time. This is the time to act or else time may come when mankind will miss all the earthly benefits and nowhere to turn to. Green revolution is also essential in transforming the pattern of climatic changes.

Through planting of indigenous trees and farming on indigenous crops, the original state of climate is sure to return with minimal climatic adjustments thereafter. Overall, the best approach in containing global warming is to return the earth to its original green form. The steps are already laid down; the general ecosystem diversity must be maintained at all costs. The greens of the earth must remain green and efforts put in place to make it even greener. Fossil fuels must be used, if unavoidable, least while environmental policies around the globe should be geared towards cleaner, greener sustainable technologies.

Kiehl, J. T. “Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget”. American Meteorological Society. 1997.

Leroux, Marcel. Global Warming: Myth or Reality?: The Erring Ways of Climatology. New York: Springer, 2005.

Spencer R. W. The Discovery of Global Warming. Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 2003.

Thomas, R. K. Modern Global Climate Change Science. 2003: Vol 302. No 5651.

UNOCHA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA: Climate Change Challenge to Combat Malaria: Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptations and Vulnerability. Contribution of Workgroup II on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22.

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The Reality of Climate Change: 10 Myths Busted

Dynamic earth.

Earth is a dynamic sphere and, it turns out, so is the planet's climate, otherwise known as the long-term trend of global weather conditions. It's no wonder questions and myths abound about what exactly is going on in the atmosphere, in the oceans and on land. How can we tell our orb is actually warming and whether humans are to blame? Here's a look at what scientists know and don't know about some seemingly murky statements on Earth's climate. [ 50 Amazing Facts About Earth ]

Climate has changed before

Myth: Even before SUVs and other greenhouse-gas spewing technologies, Earth's climate was changing, so humans can't be responsible for today's global warming.

Science: Climate changes in the past suggest that our climate reacts to energy input and output, such that if the planet accumulates more heat than it gives off global temperatures will rise. It's the driver of this heat imbalance that differs.

Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate's sensitivity to CO2.

(Image left: heat given off by Earth's surface and atmosphere; Right: sunlight reflected back out to space.)

... but it's cold outside!

Myth: The planet can't be warming when my front yard is covered in several feet of snow. … This winter has been one of the chilliest, how is that possible in a warming world?

Science: Local temperatures taken as individual data points have nothing to do with the long-term trend of global warming. These local ups and downs in weather and temperature can hide a slower-moving uptick in long-term climate. To get a real bead on global warming, scientists rely on changes in weather over a long period of time. To find climate trends you need to look at how weather is changing over a longer time span. Looking at high and low temperature data from recent decades shows that new record highs occur nearly twice as often as new record lows.

For instance, a study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2009, found that daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the prior decade across the continental United States.

Climate is cooling

Myth: Global warming has stopped and the Earth has begun to cool.

Science: The last decade, 2000-2009, was the hottest on record, according to Skeptical Science. Big blizzards and abnormally chilly weather often raise the question: How can global warming be occurring when it's snowing outside? Global warming is compatible with chilled weather. "For climate change, it is the long-term trends that are important; measured over decades or more, and those long term trends show that the globe is still, unfortunately, warming," according to Skeptical Science.

The sun is to blame

Myth: Over the past few hundred years, the sun's activity, including the number of sunspots, has increased, causing the world to get warmer.

Science: In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend, while the climate has been heating up, scientists say. In the past century, solar activity can explain some of the increase in global temperatures, but a relatively small amount. (Solar activity refers to the activity of the sun's magnetic field and includes magnetic field-powered sunspots and solar flares.)

A study published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics in December 2011 revealed that even during a prolonged lull in the sun's activity, Earth still continued to warm . The study researchers found that the Earth absorbed 0.58 watts of excess energy per square meter than escaped back into space during the study period from 2005 to 2010, a time when solar activity was low.

Not everyone agrees

Myth: There's no consensus on whether the planet is actually warming.

Science: About 97 percent of climate scientists agree that human-made global warming is happening. "In the scientific field of climate studies — which is informed by many different disciplines — the consensus is demonstrated by the number of scientists who have stopped arguing about what is causing climate change — and that's nearly all of them," according to Skeptical Science, a website dedicated to explaining the science of global warming.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is not a pollutant

Myth: Rick Santorum, GOP presidential nominee, summed up this argument in the news when he said: "The dangers of carbon dioxide? Tell that to a plant, how dangerous carbon dioxide is," he told the Associated Press.

Science: While it is true that plants photosynthesize, and therefore take up carbon dioxide as a way of forming energy with the help of the sun and water, this gas is both a direct pollutant (think acidification of oceans) and more importantly is linked to the greenhouse effect. When heat energy gets released from Earth's surface, some of that radiation is trapped by greenhouse gases like CO2; the effect is what makes our planet comfy temperature-wise, but too much and you get global warming.

Climate scientists are conspiring to push "global warming"

Myth: Thousands of emails between climate scientists leaked in November 2009 (dubbed Climategate) revealed a cover-up of data that conflicted with research showing the Earth is warming.

Science: Yes, a hacker did access and release emails and documents from the University of East Anglia server. But there was no cover-up; a number of investigations were launched, including two independent reviews set up by the university: the Independent Climate Change E-mails Review (ICCER) and the independent Scientific Appraisal Panel (SAP). The investigations cleared the researchers involved with the e-mails of scientific misconduct, and found no evidence of a cover-up.

Don't worry, it's not that bad

Myth: Some have pointed to human history as evidence that warm periods are good for people, while the cold, unstable stints have been catastrophic.

Science: Climate scientists say any positives are far outweighed by the negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, human health, the economy and the environment. For instance, according to one 2007 study, a warming planet may mean an increased growing season in Greenland; but it also means water shortages, more frequent and more intense wildfires and expanding deserts.

Antarctica is gaining ice

Myth: Ice covering much of Antarctica is expanding, contrary to the belief that the ice cap is melting due to global warming.

Science: The argument that ice is expanding on Antarctica omit the fact that there's a difference between land ice and sea ice, climate scientists say. "If you are talking about the Antarctic ice sheet, we expect some gain in accumulation in the interior due to warmer, more moisture-laden air, but increased calving/ice loss at the periphery, primarily due to warming southern oceans," climate scientist Michael Mann, of Pennsylvania State University, told LiveScience. The net change in ice mass is the difference between this accumulation and peripheral loss. "Models traditionally have projected that this difference doesn't become negative (i.e. net loss of Antarctic ice sheet mass) for several decades," Mann said, adding that detailed gravimetric measurements, which looks at changes in Earth's gravity over spots to estimate, among other things, ice mass. These measurements, Mann said, suggest the Antarctic ice sheet is already losing mass and contributing to sea level rise .

Now for sea ice, this type of ice is influenced by year-to-year changes in wind directions and changes in ocean currents. For sea ice, it's tricky to identify a clear trend, Mann said.

Climate models are unreliable

Myth: Models are full of "fudge factors" or assumptions that make them fit with data collected in today's climate; there's no way to know if those same assumption can be made in a world with increased carbon dioxide.

Science: Models have successfully reproduced global temperatures since 1900, by land, in the air and the oceans. "Models are simply a formalization of our best understanding of the processes that govern the atmosphere, the oceans, the ice sheets, etc.," Mann said. He added that certain processes, such as how clouds will respond to changes in the atmosphere and the warming or cooling effect of clouds, are uncertain and different modeling groups make different assumptions about how to represent these processes.

Even so, Mann said, certain predictions are based on physics and chemistry that are so fundamental, such as the atmospheric greenhouse effect, that the resulting predictions — that surface temperatures should warm, ice should melt and sea level should rise — are robust no matter the assumptions.

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10 myths about climate change

With the climate crisis becoming a hot topic in mainstream media - there's a lot of confusion around what climate change actually is and what's causing it. That's why we've tried to clear up some of the most frequently heard myths, so that you can tell fiction from fact!

Myth 1. The Earth’s climate has always changed  

Over the course of Earth’s 4.5-billion-year history, the climate has changed a lot, this is true. However, the rapid warming we’re seeing now can't be explained by natural cycles of warming and cooling. The kind of changes that would normally happen over hundreds of thousands of years are happening in decades. 

Global temperatures are now at their highest since records began. In fact, the 10 warmest years on Earth, since 1880, have occurred since 2014. [1]       

So, when people talk about climate change today, they mean anthropogenic (human-made) climate change. This is the warming of Earth’s average temperature as a result of human activity, such as burning coal, oil and gas to produce energy to fuel our homes and transport, and cutting down trees to produce the food we eat. You can read more about it here: How do we know climate change is real?

Myth 2. Global warming isn't real as it's still cold

Global warming is causing the Earth’s average surface temperature to rise which, in turn, is causing changes in our natural climate systems. These changes are making all sorts of extreme weather events more likely and more severe, including more intense droughts, heatwaves and hurricanes but also, strangely, an increased potential for more severe cold weather events    

There is also an important distinction between weather and climate. Weather refers to short-term changes in the Earth’s atmosphere and represents things such as temperature, rain and cloudiness. Climate refers to longer-term changes in the Earth’s atmosphere over extended periods of time. Short-term changes in the weather will continue and that is why we can still experience cold snaps, despite the fact that the Earth’s temperature is warming. On top of this, we will keep on experiencing natural seasonal variations as the Earth orbits around the sun, so winter will continue to feel cooler than summer, even though the overall temperature is higher than it was 100 years ago.

Due to where we are in the world, the UK and Ireland are likely to get more wind and rain as a result of climate change, while New York could see more snow. The complex interaction between factors in the Earth’s climate makes extreme weather events, both hot and cold, more unpredictable and impactful.

Myth 3. Heatwaves and wildfires have nothing to do with climate change 

Climate change makes extreme weather more frequent and intense, including heatwaves, wildfires and floods.

The evidence shows that extreme heatwaves have increased since the 1950s and human-induced climate change is the main driver; with every additional increment of global warming, these extremes continue to increase.

Because climate change creates warmer and drier conditions, even if a wildfire is started as a result of human activity, there is more fuel available when vegetation is very dry, and the relative humidity of the air will be lower, allowing fires to spread further and faster. In addition, the global wildfire season is getting longer, due to higher temperatures and longer droughts.

Wildfires can pose an immediate threat to the lives of people and animals in the area, as well as causing damage to soil, vegetation and whole ecosystems. Smoke and ash from wildfires pollute air, water and land.

Myth 4. China is mostly responsible for climate change 

Human-induced climate change is something that has been happening for many years and Western countries, like the UK, have played a big role in contributing to carbon emissions over the past 200 years. This means that only looking at who the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases are today is an oversimplification of a very nuanced topic.   

A lot of the products we purchase in the UK are manufactured in China, meaning that we are essentially transferring a large portion of our emissions to the countries responsible for creating the products we use. Part of the reason emissions from highly industrialised countries are so high is because of the high demand for products created by them, from countries such as the UK.

Despite being one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases today, in part because it’s such a big country, China’s emissions per person are less than other countries like the United States. 

China is also currently investing heavily in renewable energy. The increase in investment has been in response to the rapid growth of green business, the demand for renewable energy and the need to clean up air pollution in its major cities.  

Climate change is a global issue, and we all have a responsibility to step up to tackle the climate crisis. The problem will not be solved unless all countries put in as much effort as they can and work together. Action on climate change will need serious investment but has the potential to deliver huge benefits for nature and people. We all need to raise our voices and fight for our world!

Myth 5. Plants need carbon dioxide 

Plants do need carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to live. Plants and forests remove and store away huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year. The problem is, there’s only so much carbon dioxide they can absorb and this amount is getting less, as more and more forests are cut down across the world, largely to produce our food.  

Let’s be clear, CO 2 itself does not cause problems. It's part of the natural global ecosystem. The problem is the quantity of CO 2 that’s being produced by us as humans; there hasn’t been this level of CO 2 in the atmosphere for thee million years. [2]  

Myth 6. Animals will adapt to climate change

This one isn't a complete myth; Darwin got the adaptation part right. However, let’s be clear, some plants and animals will adapt but not all.

To survive, plants, animals and birds confronted with climate change have two options: move or adapt. There are several examples of species that have begun to adapt to climate change already.

But increasingly, it's a different story for many. Given the speed of climate change, it’s becoming impossible for many species to adapt quickly enough to keep up with their changing environment. As habitats are destroyed by roads, cities and dams, moving becomes increasingly difficult. For those that can’t move or adapt, the future doesn’t look so positive.

Myth 7. Polar bear numbers are increasing 

This isn’t the case. Climate change is the biggest threat faced by polar bears. The Arctic is warming roughly four times faster than the rest of the world, causing sea ice to melt earlier and form later each year. This makes it more difficult for female polar bears to get onto land in late autumn to build their dens and more difficult for them to get out onto the sea ice in the spring to feed their cubs. Their main source of prey, seals, are also affected by climate change, as they depend on sea ice to raise their young.  

This means that in some parts of the Arctic, polar bears are having to survive with less food than they did previously. Polar bear populations are predicted to decline by 30% by the middle of this century.

Myth 8. Renewable energy is more expensive 

The  belief that renewable energy is expensive, simply isn’t true! Solar power and wind are the cheapest ways of generating electricity, meaning that the energy they produce is cheaper than nuclear, gas and other fossil fuels. Some estimates show that renewable energy can be up to nine times cheaper than gas! The   cost of renewables has fallen faster than anyone could have predicted, yet the UK Government are still backing dirty fossil fuels. [3]  

Right now, people are facing a huge rise in the price of energy and food. The main drivers of this include the price of fossil fuels, while crops around the world are also failing in the wake of droughts and floods caused by climate change. Tackling climate change and fixing the cost-of-living crisis go hand-in-hand. Both challenges have the same root cause – a reliance on expensive and polluting fossil fuels – meaning that both challenges have the same solution.    

Myth 9. Renewable energy can only work when it's not cloudy or windy 

The energy industry   is developing new methods for storing electricity and managing demand at peak times, meaning that even if the sun isn't shining or it’s not blowing a gale, it’s still possible to rely on renewable energy sources.

The majority of UK homes get their electricity from the National Grid. When you switch to a clean supplier, they guarantee that for every unit of electricity you take out of the grid, they’ll put the same amount of clean energy back in, helping to clean up our energy supply. 

Myth 10. Climate change is a future problem

There is no longer an excuse for inaction on climate change as it pushes the burden of addressing the climate crisis onto future generations.

We’re already seeing the devastating effects of climate change on global food supplies, migration, conflict, disease and global instability, which will only get worse if we don’t act now. Human-made climate change is the biggest crisis of our time. It threatens the future of the planet that we depend on for our survival and we're the last generation that can do something about it.

In 2015, 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement, uniting in the shared objective of halting global warming to 1.5°C (when compared to how hot the world was before the Industrial Revolution). To help with this, the UK is striving to reduce its carbon emissions by 68% by 2030 and is aiming to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Therefore, in order for us to successfully achieve this goal, we need to act now.

Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge the world has ever faced, but we have the solutions and we know nature can fight back. We need people all over the world to take action and join the fight for our world

[1] Global Temperature: Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov) 

[2] Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: NOAA Climate.gov 

[3] Analysis: Record-low price for UK offshore wind is nine times cheaper than gas - Carbon Brief

Global Warming - Myth or Reality?

The Erring Ways of Climatology

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Table of contents (17 chapters)

Front matter, introduction, the subject, the players, and the principle basis, history of the notion of global warming, conclusions of the ipcc (working group i), science, media, politics..., greenhouse effect — water effect, causes of climate change, models and climate, the general circulation of the atmosphere, the lessons of the observation of real facts, the observational facts: past climates, the observational facts: present temperatures, the observational facts: weather, rainfall, and drought, the observational facts: climate and aerological units, the north atlantic aerological unit, the north pacific aerological unit, the lessons of the observation of real facts in the aerological units: conclusion, the observational facts: sea level and circulation, general conclusion.

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Book Title : Global Warming - Myth or Reality?

Book Subtitle : The Erring Ways of Climatology

Authors : Marcel Leroux

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-28100-2

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• Published: 23 August 2022

To create serious movement on climate change, we must dispel the myth of indifference

• Cynthia McPherson Frantz   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9303-3052 1  

Nature Communications volume  13 , Article number:  4780 ( 2022 ) Cite this article

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Public underestimation of support for climate change policy is striking. Social science research tells us this is bad news, but also tells us what to do about it. Climate change communication must hammer home the overwhelming support for action.

Seventy eight percent of Americans—including 66% of Republicans—are concerned about climate change, a number that has increased dramatically in the last 3 years 1 . Climate models and recent anomalous weather events such as a “once in a millennium” heat dome in the Northwest 2 and unprecedented wildfires in California 3 make clear that urgent action is needed. Numerous policy 4 and technological 5 solutions stand waiting to be implemented, yet the United States remains in a state of fragmented and incremental progress, led primarily by NGOs, local governments, and pockets of the private sector. Why?

Gregg Sparkman and colleagues 6 help illuminate this question by providing a crucial and thorough evaluation of public perception of climate policy support. Through an analysis of a large-N representative panel survey of US adults (from Ipsos eNation Omnibus), they demonstrate that virtually all segments of the general public dramatically underestimate the extent to which other people are concerned about climate change, as well as their support for policies to address it. Sparkman et al. explore a number of plausible (and non-mutually exclusive) explanations for this misperception, all of which warrant further study. Regardless of its cause, the magnitude of inaccuracy Sparkman et al. document is staggering: the number of Democrats who support climate policies such as a carbon tax or the Green New Deal is double the number that people estimate, and Republican support is much higher than otherwise thought.

Public misperception matters, because what we think other people think strongly impacts our own behavior 7 . Entertain this thought experiment: Imagine you are in a meeting with nine strangers, and you are quite hot. A window could be opened to let in cool air from outside. You look around the room and it seems that only 3 other people look like they might be warm. The rest seem to be quite comfortable. Would you suggest opening the window? You might, but you might not. Now imagine that instead you estimate that 6 other people look like they may be uncomfortably warm. Does that make you more likely to act? Now imagine that those 6 other people are talking about how warm it is. Suddenly it becomes obvious that you should get up and open the window.

Sparkman et al. discuss one explanation for why others influence us—namely, that social norms (what we believe others are doing and thinking) are important and powerful determinants of behavior 8 . We tend to do what we see others do. Currently, worrying about climate change is something people are largely doing in the privacy of their own minds. Based on this new data and the recent work of others on pluralistic ignorance 9 , it becomes clear that we are locked in a self-fulfilling spiral of silence. People believe that others are not concerned—or that they are even skeptical of climate change—which encourages them to refrain from discussing it with others. The lack of public discussion reinforces the norm that others are not concerned and hampers the likelihood of collective organization to address climate change. Misconceptions take on an even larger significance when we remember that those in positions of power are people too. Any misconceptions on their part influence how they behave, i.e., their willingness to support aggressive policies, make bold statements in their public outreach, or create “balanced” media coverage of climate change.

Another key determinant of human behavior with extensive empirical support is efficacy, or our belief that we can do something. If you believe the window in our thought experiment above is glued shut, you won’t even get out of your chair. Note that the window might not be glued shut! Your erroneous belief will stop you from trying anyway. Because climate change is a collective problem, taking action hinges on not just what we believe we personally can do, but on what we think others will do 7 . This is known as collective efficacy. Sparkman et al.’s data provide a siren call: Americans believe a minority are willing to support climate policies, when in fact a supermajority do. While not addressed directly by their data, the implications are clear: Creating a sense of collective efficacy, that we can respond effectively to climate change, is all but impossible under this level of misperception. The good news is that Sparkman et al. find that support for climate policy is, in fact, overwhelming; social norms can be changed, collective efficacy can be built, and these developments can occur quickly. It simply requires that people be exposed, over and over from sources they trust or identify with, to the fact that they are not alone in their concern and their willingness to take action 10 .

There are many scalable ways that this could happen. Individuals, faith organizations, non-profits, and businesses can make public statements via traditional means (such as letters to the editor) as well as through more modern ones (through the use of online forums such as Twitter and Instagram). Those with the opportunity to speak to wider audiences (celebrities and other public figures; elected officials; directors of parks, zoos and museums; educators) can not only speak directly to many, but can also encourage the wider public to speak up. The empowering truth is that every public statement counts, and the more diverse the voices, the more effective the message will be. Further, when every member of society has the chance to see “someone like them” speaking in favor of action on climate change, powerholders have a stronger mandate from which to work, and activists have a wellspring of concerned citizens from which to organize a movement. As Chenoweth’s 11 research on social movements reveals, when just 3.5 percent of the population is engaged in non-violent protest, change happens. According to Chenoweth, if roughly 3 times the number of people who attended the 2017 Women’s March were well organized and persistent, “things would be totally different” 12 .

As scientists and as citizens, we need to communicate clearly and often—to regular people but especially to powerholders in politics, education, and the media—that the American people want strong and decisive action on climate change. Dispelling misconceptions about climate change policy support is a powerful lever of change. Further research such as that from Sparkman et al is critical for learning how to do this most effectively.

Leiserowitz, A. et al. Climate Change in the American Mind: December 2020 (2021).

Berardelli, J. Pacific Northwest bakes under once-in-a-millennium heat dome (2021).

CalFire. 2021 Fire Season (2021).

Citizen’s Climate Lobby. Why put a price on carbon? (2022).

Sky News. Climate Change: Seven technology solutions that could help solve the crisis (2021).

Sparkman, G., Geiger, N. & Weber, E.U. Americans Perceive a False Social Reality as They Underestimate the Popularity of Climate Policy Support and Climate Concern by Nearly Half. Nat. Commun . (in this issue).

Bandura, A. Toward a psychology of human agency. Perspect. Psychol. Sci. 1 , 164–180 (2006).

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Farrow, K., Grolleau, G. & Ibanez, L. Social norms and pro-environmental behavior: a review of the evidence. Ecol. Econ. 140 , 1–13 (2017).

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Chenoweth, E. & Stephan, M. Why civil resistance works: the strategic logic of nonviolent conflict (Columbia University Press, 2011).

Nicholasen, M. Nonviolent resistance proves potent weapon. Harvard Gazette (2019).

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Watch CBS News

10 common myths about climate change — and what science really says

By Jeff Berardelli

February 27, 2020 / 7:00 AM EST / CBS News

If you've ever engaged in a discussion about climate change , in person or online, you've probably encountered some arguments about what the science says. Some of those claims may sound logical but are actually misleading or inaccurate. 

In fact, misconceptions and outright misinformation have gotten so out of hand, just days ago NASA felt the need to publicly address one of the most popular myths: that a decrease in the the sun's output will soon trigger cooling and a mini ice age. 

This and other topics have been studied thoroughly and debunked over and over again by climate scientists. Nevertheless these myths persist, often as a result of an organized disinformation campaign waged by special interests whose goal is to raise doubts among the public and delay action on human-caused climate change.

Here is a look at 10 of the most common myths about climate change that persist in the public sphere and what science has to say about them.

Myth #1: It's the sun.

While it is true that varying intensity of energy from the sun has driven long-term climate changes like ice ages in the distant past, the sun can not explain the recent spike in warming.

Over tens and hundreds of thousands of years, the Earth's tilt and orbit around the sun varies in predictable cycles. The way these cycles interact with each other cause gradual increases or decreases in the energy from the sun reaching the Earth. That change in energy can gradually — over thousands of years — ease the Earth into and out of ice age cycles. Over about the past 800,000 years, these ice/melt cycles have occurred about every 100,000 years .

But the pace of the recent temperature spike has been markedly faster — taking place over 150 years, with the majority happening over just the past few decades. At that same time, the sun's output has been going in the opposite direction, diverging from the direction in temperature. As this NASA graph shows, solar irradiance is down slightly from a peak in the 1950s.

In fact, according to NASA , in late 2020 the current solar cycle is headed for its lowest level since 1750, meaning the lowest energy output from the sun in 270 years. Still, that change in output is minor, having varied by only  0.1% since 1750.

Myth #2: Carbon dioxide levels are tiny. They can't make a difference.

It's true, carbon dioxide (CO2) makes up a tiny fraction of the atmosphere, less than a tenth of a percent. But because of CO2's powerful heat-trapping greenhouse properties, its presence makes a huge difference. Currently, CO2 levels keep Earth's temperature at a comfortable average of nearly 60 degrees Fahrenheit. As shown in the below animation, if CO2 abruptly dropped to zero, Earth's average temperature would also drop far below freezing, eradicating most life as we know it.

It should be noted: the drop in CO2 doesn’t directly cause the whole drop in temperature. Other feedbacks occur when CO2 is eliminated. Water vapor condenses out as temps fall thus tanking its greenhouse effect & Albedo (reflected sun) increases bec. of ice growth = more cooling. — Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) November 20, 2019

To be clear, a drop in CO2 wouldn't directly cause the whole drop in temperature. The biggest impact comes from the most abundant greenhouse gas, water vapor, which condenses out due to the fact that colder air holds less water vapor; this is what tanks the greenhouse effect in the simulation. Positive feedbacks like the growth of ice cover would further precipitate the temperature plunge. But it's CO2 which drives all this change. 

Because small concentrations of carbon dioxide have an outsized impact, scientists are very concerned about the recent unprecedented rate of increase. For the vast majority of the past million years, CO2 levels have been below 280 parts per million. Since the industrial revolution of the 1800s, levels have jumped to 415 parts per million — an astounding 48% increase in 150 years. 

As the below graph shows, that dramatic increase in carbon dioxide levels coincides with the rapid warming.

Myth #3: Scientists disagree on the cause of climate change.

Contrary to popular belief, scientists do not disagree that climate change is happening and that it is caused by humans. Various analyses over many years have shown that between 90% and 100% of publishing climate scientists agree that humans are the main cause of our warming climate. Many studies have evaluated the scientific consensus , but the most famous, which as of this summer has been downloaded 1 million times, is this 2013 paper quantifying that agreement at over 97%.

According to NASA, "Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position."

For perspective, NASA Goddard Institute climate scientist Kate Marvel put this consensus into relatable terms, "We are more sure that greenhouse gas is causing climate change than we are that smoking causes cancer."

Despite this scientific consensus, only 1 in 5 Americans understand that almost all climate scientists agree that climate change is real and caused by humans. That is called the " Consensus Gap ."

Myth #4: The climate has always changed. It's natural.

No scientist will disagree that the climate changes naturally. It always has and it always will. What makes the recent changes stand out is the unprecedented pace of change. 

Because "the present anthropogenic (human-caused) carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years ," as scientists concluded in a 2016 study in Nature Geoscience , the rate of temperature rise is 10 times faster than that of the last mass extinction about 56 million years ago. 

Science has a firm handle on the various reasons why the climate changes naturally. Two examples are long-term fluctuations in sunlight due to changes in Earth's orbit, which modulate ice ages, and shorter-term release of sun-dimming ash from large volcanoes, like Mount Pinatubo , which cooled Earth's surface by 1 degree Fahrenheit in 2001.

None of these natural changes can explain the spike in heating since the 1800s. In contrast, physics calculates that most of the recent warming stems from heat-trapping greenhouse gases released by the burning of fossil fuels. According to climate scientist and data analyst Dr. Zeke Hausfather, "Our best estimate is that 100% of the warming the world has experienced is due to human activities. Natural factors — changes in solar output and volcanoes — would have led to slight cooling over the past 50 years."

Here's a brief video showing the different natural and human-caused factors which factor into temperature changes.

Myth #5: It's cold out. What happened to global warming?

It should be obvious that Earth as a whole can warm up and at the same time certain parts of the Earth can feel cold. Yet cold weather is common cited as evidence against climate change — both sincerely and, by some, disingenuously. Famously, in 2015, Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma held up a snowball on the Senate floor on a cold winter day to deny the existence of climate change. 

At issue here is the difference between weather and climate. When scientists use the term global warming, or climate change , it refers to a broad temperature shift across the entire Earth's surface over the course of years and decades. The term weather, on the other hand, is the short-term, sometimes abrupt day-to-day variation in any given location. A good way to think about it is: Weather is your mood; Climate is your personality. Global warming does not prohibit cold, it just makes extreme cold less intense and less likely. Winter is still winter, it's just not as wintery overall.

This is illustrated below. In recent decades, the ratio of record highs compared to record lows in the United States (and globally) is increasing, averaging approximately two record highs to every one record low. The duration of winter cold snaps is also decreasing, but of course cold air still exists.

Myth #6: In the 1970s scientists warned about a coming ice age. They were wrong. So why should we believe them now?

If you were of age in the 1970s you might remember a number alarming newspaper headlines warning of an ice age on the way. But a deeper dive reveals those articles were based on a small number of papers very much in the scientific minority.

In the mid 20th century, climate science was very much in its infancy — scientists were just learning to decipher the influence of competing forces regulating climate. In the 1960s and 1970s, the science began to mature as researchers unearthed the most prominent factors such as the cooling influence of aerosols and the warming influence of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide — concepts which have stood up to decades of rigorous testing.

Yet even at that early stage, a scientific consensus was emerging on warming, not cooling, in the near future. This was made clear by a 2008 study called "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus," which conducted a survey of the peer-reviewed literature from 1965 to 1979. The research team found that of the 71 related research papers, 44 indicated warming while only 7 indicated cooling (20 did not make projections either way). "Global cooling was never more than a minor aspect of the scientific climate change literature of the era, let alone the scientific consensus," the authors write.

So why then was there such an outsized influence in the social consciousness from these few cooling papers?  For one thing, the paper suggests, ice ages make for very compelling and memorable headlines. But those stories often included contradictory evidence as well, and other news coverage at the time did focus on warming theories.

Selecting and highlighting past inaccuracies in science, even if they are the exception and not the rule, is an expedient way for politicians and opponents of climate action to sow doubt about the credibility of climate science.  

In short, while a handful of scientists did predict cooling a half a century ago, that is a drop in the bucket compared to the tens of thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers since then which substantiate that humans are heating the climate.

Myth #7: The temperature record is rigged or unreliable.

A common talking point among climate change skeptics is either "the temperature record is unreliable" or "the temperature record is rigged." That might be a plausible argument if all of science relied on just one or two records; however, there are many independent temperature records produced by various independent bodies worldwide, and their data are remarkably consistent with each other.

These organizations include NASA, NOAA, the UK Meteorological Service, the Japanese Meteorological Service and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, just to name a few. 

One of the variables they have to account for is a phenomenon called the Urban Heat Island effect. Simply put, large cities — which are expanding — heat up the local atmosphere due to the concentration of dark surfaces, buildings and industries releasing heat. The concern is this extra heat may "contaminate" surface temperature trends. Scientists have studied this phenomena thoroughly and the surprising conclusion is that the warming trend in the temperature record of urban sites, in general, is similar to rural sites. So the urban heat island effect is real but not very substantial.

The temperature records are carefully fine-tuned by data experts to account for factors including the urban heat island effect, instrument sites being relocated, and instrument type changes. While each organization has its own unique methods for data gathering and analysis, the resulting temperature records are largely in sync.

  Myth #8: Climate models are not accurate.

Considering how complex modeling the climate is, most model projections of future temperature, even the rather primitive climate computer models of the 1970s, 80s and 90s, were impressively accurate. This lends extra credibility to the much more advanced climate models of today in predicting future changes.

A recent study evaluated 17 climate model projections published between 1970 and 2007, with forecasts ending on or before 2017. The researchers found 14 of the 17 model projections were consistent with observed real-world surface temperatures, when they factored in the actual rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Here's the assessment of the lead scientist on the study, Dr. Zeke Hausfather: "Climate models have by and large gotten things right."

• Climate models have been impressively accurate for decades, study finds

Dr. Gavin Schmitt, the head of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, posted an even more recent assessment of the state-of-the-art collection of climate models run in the early 2000s called CMIP3. He concluded, "The CMIP3 simulations continue to be spot on (remarkably), with the trend in the multi-model ensemble mean effectively indistinguishable from the trends in the observations."

In the graph below, the model projection is the black line and the colored lines are the actual temperature datasets from various agencies. As you can see, the magnitude and pace of temperature change consistently match.

To be sure, evaluating global temperature projections are not the only gauge of a model's accuracy. Models can be expected to be accurate on general trends, such as whether global temperatures will warm, overall rainfall increase or hurricanes get stronger. However, when it comes to predicting regional changes and other specific types of events, the climate models are far from perfect. Future projections like whether rainfall will increase or decrease in San Francisco, or whether more or fewer hurricanes will hit Florida, are still uncertain and on the edge of climate models' current ability.

Myth #9: Grand Solar Minimum is coming. It will counteract global warming.

Many scientists speculate that we are now entering the beginning of a Grand Solar Minimum — a period with decreased solar energy which could last a few decades. There is a general acknowledgement that this speculation may be true, but there is a lack of scientific consensus because of limited understanding of longer-term solar cycles.

If this happens it certainly would not be the first time. The most famous Grand Solar Minimum, called the Maunder Minimum, spanned from 1645 to 1715. The period indeed corresponds with a decrease in temperature, but was embedded in a much longer-term cooling period called the Little Ice Age (from about  the 1300s through the mid 1800s ). While it seems logical to assume the cooling during the Little Ice Age may have been due to a decrease in solar activity, leading theories actually point more so to volcanic activity . 

With that said, a scientific collaboration to reconstruct past temperatures, called PAGES2K , indicates that global average temperatures decreased by no more than a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius during the Maunder Minimum. During that time the solar irradiance decreased by one-quarter of one percent.

Several studies have been conducted on the potential impact of a Grand Solar Minimum in the coming decades. The consensus of these studies finds that global average temperatures would decrease by no more than around half a degree Fahrenheit, but likely less. In contrast, human-caused climate change has already warmed the planet by 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 1800s, and climate scientists forecast we could see about 4 degrees Fahrenheit of additional warming by 2100.

So, while a Grand Solar Minimum is possible, our best science tells us it would do nothing more than make a small dent in the overall warming trend. According to NASA, that amount of cooling would be balanced by just three years of greenhouse gas emissions and the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than a possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. And any impact of cooling would be short-lived, with temperatures bouncing right back after the minimum ends. 

It's also worth mentioning that during the Maunder Minimum certain regions, like Europe, cooled more than others. If this reoccurs during the next minimum, regional cooling may be slightly more impactful on those given regions, but it would still pale in comparison to the amplitude of warming from human-caused climate change.

Myth #10: Scientists claim climate change will destroy the planet by 2030.

Climate scientists are often accused of making alarming assertions about climate change, like "the impacts will be catastrophic by 2030" or "we only have a decade left to save the planet." First and foremost, scientists are not predicting this. However, some politicians and media headlines have used select bits of scientific data to fuel the impression of impending Armageddon.  

This specific myth comes directly from a quote in the 2018 Special Report produced by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here's what the quote actually says:

"The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require 'rapid and far-reaching' transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching 'net zero' around 2050."

To simplify, the report concludes that if the global community wants to avoid breaching the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, then we need to abruptly cut emissions by rapidly reducing the use of fossil fuels by the end of the decade. At this point the globe has already warmed by slightly more than 1 degree Celsius; the vast majority of scientists agree there is little to no chance that warming will be held below 1.5 degrees. 

Staying below 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming is a goal often cited as the limit needed to prevent the most severe consequences from climate change. But 1.5 degrees is not a magical cut-off point. There is no bright line separating "normal" from "catastrophic." Rather, the impacts of global warming get progressively worse as temperatures incrementally rise. Some have already started. 

One lead author of the IPCC report, Hans-Otto Pörtner, said, "Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems."

For people who live near sea level, like on low-lying Pacific islands, 1.5 degrees of warming will in fact be catastrophic, because it can mean the difference between an inhabitable and uninhabitable homeland due to sea-level rise. For others who are less vulnerable or have more resources, 1.5 degrees won't have quite as drastic an impact.

The IPCC report lays out many other examples of the escalating damage produced by warming above 1.5 degrees.  For instance, at that level of warming, it's estimated that coral reefs will decline another 70% to 90%. If we hit 2 degrees Celsius of warming, the  death toll for coral reefs jumps to 99%. This would not only be devastating to the aquatic species which rely directly on reefs, but also to millions of people worldwide who depend on the ecosystem for sustenance and business, as well as the web of life as a whole.

So, no, the world will not end in 10 years due to climate change. But the longer action is delayed, the more dire the consequences will be and the more likely it is that the changes will be irreversible.

The Skeptical Science website has compiled an exhaustive list of common myths and misconceptions about human-caused climate change, each complemented by peer-reviewed scientific research to illuminate the topics.

Jeff Berardelli is a meteorologist and climate specialist for CBS News.

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Paul Krugman

The Stench of Climate Change Denial

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

This may sound a bit weird, but when I think about my adolescent years, I sometimes associate them with the faint smell of sewage.

You see, when I was in high school, my family lived on the South Shore of Long Island, where few homes had sewer connections. Most had septic tanks, and there always seemed to be an overflowing tank somewhere upwind.

Most of Nassau County eventually got sewered . But many American homes, especially in the Southeast, aren’t connected to sewer lines, and more and more septic tanks are overflowing, on a scale vastly greater than what I remember from my vaguely smelly hometown — which is both disgusting and a threat to public health.

The cause? Climate change. Along the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts, The Washington Post reported last week, “sea levels have risen at least six inches since 2010.” This may not sound like much, but it leads to rising groundwater and elevated risks of overflowing tanks.

The emerging sewage crisis is only one of many disasters we can expect as the planet continues to warm, and nowhere near the top of the list. But it seems to me to offer an especially graphic illustration of two points. First, the damage from climate change is likely to be more severe than even pessimists have tended to believe. Second, mitigation and adjustment — which are going to be necessary, because we’d still be headed for major effects of climate change even if we took immediate action to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions — will probably be far more difficult, as a political matter, than it should be.

On the first point: Estimating the costs of climate change and, relatedly, the costs polluters impose every time they emit another ton of carbon dioxide requires fusing results from two disciplines. On one side, we need physical scientists to figure out how much greenhouse gas emissions will warm the planet, how this will change weather patterns and so on. On the other, we need economists to estimate how these physical changes will affect productivity, health care costs and more.

Actually, there’s a third dimension: social and geopolitical risk. How, for example, will we deal with millions or tens of millions of climate refugees? But I don’t think anyone knows how to quantify those risks.

Anyway, the physical side of this endeavor looks very solid. There has, of course, been a decades-long campaign aiming to discredit climate research and, in some instances, defame individual climate scientists . But if you step back from the smears, you realize that climatology has been one of history’s great analytical triumphs. Climate scientists correctly predicted, decades in advance, an unprecedented rise in global temperatures. They even appear to have gotten the magnitude more or less right .

The economic side of the effort looks flakier. That’s not because economists haven’t tried. Indeed, in 2018, William Nordhaus received a Nobel largely for his work on “integrated assessment models” that try to put the climate science and the economic analysis together.

Yet with all due respect — Nordhaus happens to have been my first mentor in economics! — I’ve long been worried that these models understate the economic costs of climate change, because so many things you weren’t thinking of can go wrong. The prospect of part of America awash in sewage certainly wasn’t on my list.

There has been a trend in recent studies to mark up estimates of the damage from climate change. The uncertainty remains huge, but it’s a good guess that things will be even worse than you thought.

So what are we going to do about it? Even if we were to take drastic steps to reduce emissions right now, many of the consequences of past emissions, including much bigger increases in sea level than we’ve seen so far, are already, as it were, baked in. So we’re going to have to take a wide range of steps to mitigate the damage — including expanding sewer systems to limit the rising tide of, um, sludge.

But will we take those steps? Climate denial was originally all about fossil fuel interests, and to some extent it still is. But it has also become a front in the culture war , with politicians like Ron DeSantis of Florida — who happens to be the governor of one of the states at greatest immediate risk — apparently deciding that even mentioning climate change is woke.

Now imagine the collision between that kind of politics and the urgent need for substantial public spending, on everything from sea walls to sewer systems, to limit climate damage. Spending on that scale will almost surely require new tax revenue. How quickly do you think right-wing culture warriors will agree to that?

So I’m very worried about the climate future. We probably won’t do enough to limit emissions; President Biden has done far more than any of his predecessors, but it’s still not enough, and Donald Trump has promised oil executives that if he wins, he will reverse much of what Biden has done. Beyond that, we’re unlikely to do enough to limit the damage.

In short, it’s not hard to see some terrible outcomes in the not-too-distant future, even before full global catastrophe arrives. Bad stuff is coming, and we’re already starting to smell it.

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Paul Krugman has been an Opinion columnist since 2000 and is also a distinguished professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center. He won the 2008 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on international trade and economic geography. @ PaulKrugman