how hypothesis helps your workplace

• Business Essentials
• Leadership & Management
• Credential of Leadership, Impact, and Management in Business (CLIMB)
• Entrepreneurship & Innovation
• Digital Transformation
• Finance & Accounting
• Business in Society
• For Organizations
• Support Portal
• Media Coverage
• Founding Donors
• Leadership Team

• Harvard Business School →
• HBS Online →
• Business Insights →

Business Insights

Harvard Business School Online's Business Insights Blog provides the career insights you need to achieve your goals and gain confidence in your business skills.

• Career Development
• Communication
• Decision-Making
• Earning Your MBA
• Negotiation
• News & Events
• Productivity
• Staff Spotlight
• Student Profiles
• Work-Life Balance
• AI Essentials for Business
• Alternative Investments
• Business Analytics
• Business Strategy
• Business and Climate Change
• Design Thinking and Innovation
• Digital Marketing Strategy
• Disruptive Strategy
• Economics for Managers
• Entrepreneurship Essentials
• Financial Accounting
• Global Business
• Launching Tech Ventures
• Leadership Principles
• Leadership, Ethics, and Corporate Accountability
• Leading Change and Organizational Renewal
• Leading with Finance
• Management Essentials
• Negotiation Mastery
• Organizational Leadership
• Power and Influence for Positive Impact
• Strategy Execution
• Sustainable Business Strategy
• Sustainable Investing
• Winning with Digital Platforms

A Beginner’s Guide to Hypothesis Testing in Business

• 30 Mar 2021

Becoming a more data-driven decision-maker can bring several benefits to your organization, enabling you to identify new opportunities to pursue and threats to abate. Rather than allowing subjective thinking to guide your business strategy, backing your decisions with data can empower your company to become more innovative and, ultimately, profitable.

If you’re new to data-driven decision-making, you might be wondering how data translates into business strategy. The answer lies in generating a hypothesis and verifying or rejecting it based on what various forms of data tell you.

Below is a look at hypothesis testing and the role it plays in helping businesses become more data-driven.

Access your free e-book today.

What Is Hypothesis Testing?

To understand what hypothesis testing is, it’s important first to understand what a hypothesis is.

A hypothesis or hypothesis statement seeks to explain why something has happened, or what might happen, under certain conditions. It can also be used to understand how different variables relate to each other. Hypotheses are often written as if-then statements; for example, “If this happens, then this will happen.”

Hypothesis testing , then, is a statistical means of testing an assumption stated in a hypothesis. While the specific methodology leveraged depends on the nature of the hypothesis and data available, hypothesis testing typically uses sample data to extrapolate insights about a larger population.

Hypothesis Testing in Business

When it comes to data-driven decision-making, there’s a certain amount of risk that can mislead a professional. This could be due to flawed thinking or observations, incomplete or inaccurate data , or the presence of unknown variables. The danger in this is that, if major strategic decisions are made based on flawed insights, it can lead to wasted resources, missed opportunities, and catastrophic outcomes.

The real value of hypothesis testing in business is that it allows professionals to test their theories and assumptions before putting them into action. This essentially allows an organization to verify its analysis is correct before committing resources to implement a broader strategy.

As one example, consider a company that wishes to launch a new marketing campaign to revitalize sales during a slow period. Doing so could be an incredibly expensive endeavor, depending on the campaign’s size and complexity. The company, therefore, may wish to test the campaign on a smaller scale to understand how it will perform.

In this example, the hypothesis that’s being tested would fall along the lines of: “If the company launches a new marketing campaign, then it will translate into an increase in sales.” It may even be possible to quantify how much of a lift in sales the company expects to see from the effort. Pending the results of the pilot campaign, the business would then know whether it makes sense to roll it out more broadly.

Related: 9 Fundamental Data Science Skills for Business Professionals

Key Considerations for Hypothesis Testing

1. alternative hypothesis and null hypothesis.

In hypothesis testing, the hypothesis that’s being tested is known as the alternative hypothesis . Often, it’s expressed as a correlation or statistical relationship between variables. The null hypothesis , on the other hand, is a statement that’s meant to show there’s no statistical relationship between the variables being tested. It’s typically the exact opposite of whatever is stated in the alternative hypothesis.

For example, consider a company’s leadership team that historically and reliably sees $12 million in monthly revenue. They want to understand if reducing the price of their services will attract more customers and, in turn, increase revenue.

In this case, the alternative hypothesis may take the form of a statement such as: “If we reduce the price of our flagship service by five percent, then we’ll see an increase in sales and realize revenues greater than $12 million in the next month.”

The null hypothesis, on the other hand, would indicate that revenues wouldn’t increase from the base of $12 million, or might even decrease.

Check out the video below about the difference between an alternative and a null hypothesis, and subscribe to our YouTube channel for more explainer content.

2. Significance Level and P-Value

Statistically speaking, if you were to run the same scenario 100 times, you’d likely receive somewhat different results each time. If you were to plot these results in a distribution plot, you’d see the most likely outcome is at the tallest point in the graph, with less likely outcomes falling to the right and left of that point.

With this in mind, imagine you’ve completed your hypothesis test and have your results, which indicate there may be a correlation between the variables you were testing. To understand your results' significance, you’ll need to identify a p-value for the test, which helps note how confident you are in the test results.

In statistics, the p-value depicts the probability that, assuming the null hypothesis is correct, you might still observe results that are at least as extreme as the results of your hypothesis test. The smaller the p-value, the more likely the alternative hypothesis is correct, and the greater the significance of your results.

3. One-Sided vs. Two-Sided Testing

When it’s time to test your hypothesis, it’s important to leverage the correct testing method. The two most common hypothesis testing methods are one-sided and two-sided tests , or one-tailed and two-tailed tests, respectively.

Typically, you’d leverage a one-sided test when you have a strong conviction about the direction of change you expect to see due to your hypothesis test. You’d leverage a two-sided test when you’re less confident in the direction of change.

4. Sampling

To perform hypothesis testing in the first place, you need to collect a sample of data to be analyzed. Depending on the question you’re seeking to answer or investigate, you might collect samples through surveys, observational studies, or experiments.

A survey involves asking a series of questions to a random population sample and recording self-reported responses.

Observational studies involve a researcher observing a sample population and collecting data as it occurs naturally, without intervention.

Finally, an experiment involves dividing a sample into multiple groups, one of which acts as the control group. For each non-control group, the variable being studied is manipulated to determine how the data collected differs from that of the control group.

Learn How to Perform Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing is a complex process involving different moving pieces that can allow an organization to effectively leverage its data and inform strategic decisions.

If you’re interested in better understanding hypothesis testing and the role it can play within your organization, one option is to complete a course that focuses on the process. Doing so can lay the statistical and analytical foundation you need to succeed.

Do you want to learn more about hypothesis testing? Explore Business Analytics —one of our online business essentials courses —and download our Beginner’s Guide to Data & Analytics .

About the Author

• Hypothesis Testing: Definition, Uses, Limitations + Examples

Hypothesis testing is as old as the scientific method and is at the heart of the research process. 

Research exists to validate or disprove assumptions about various phenomena. The process of validation involves testing and it is in this context that we will explore hypothesis testing. 

What is a Hypothesis? 

A hypothesis is a calculated prediction or assumption about a population parameter based on limited evidence. The whole idea behind hypothesis formulation is testing—this means the researcher subjects his or her calculated assumption to a series of evaluations to know whether they are true or false. 

Typically, every research starts with a hypothesis—the investigator makes a claim and experiments to prove that this claim is true or false . For instance, if you predict that students who drink milk before class perform better than those who don’t, then this becomes a hypothesis that can be confirmed or refuted using an experiment.  

Read: What is Empirical Research Study? [Examples & Method]

What are the Types of Hypotheses? 

1. simple hypothesis.

Also known as a basic hypothesis, a simple hypothesis suggests that an independent variable is responsible for a corresponding dependent variable. In other words, an occurrence of the independent variable inevitably leads to an occurrence of the dependent variable. 

Typically, simple hypotheses are considered as generally true, and they establish a causal relationship between two variables. 

Examples of Simple Hypothesis  

• Drinking soda and other sugary drinks can cause obesity. 
• Smoking cigarettes daily leads to lung cancer.

2. Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis is also known as a modal. It accounts for the causal relationship between two independent variables and the resulting dependent variables. This means that the combination of the independent variables leads to the occurrence of the dependent variables . 

Examples of Complex Hypotheses  

• Adults who do not smoke and drink are less likely to develop liver-related conditions.
• Global warming causes icebergs to melt which in turn causes major changes in weather patterns.

3. Null Hypothesis

As the name suggests, a null hypothesis is formed when a researcher suspects that there’s no relationship between the variables in an observation. In this case, the purpose of the research is to approve or disapprove this assumption. 

Examples of Null Hypothesis

• This is no significant change in a student’s performance if they drink coffee or tea before classes. 
• There’s no significant change in the growth of a plant if one uses distilled water only or vitamin-rich water. 

Read: Research Report: Definition, Types + [Writing Guide]

4. Alternative Hypothesis 

To disapprove a null hypothesis, the researcher has to come up with an opposite assumption—this assumption is known as the alternative hypothesis. This means if the null hypothesis says that A is false, the alternative hypothesis assumes that A is true. 

An alternative hypothesis can be directional or non-directional depending on the direction of the difference. A directional alternative hypothesis specifies the direction of the tested relationship, stating that one variable is predicted to be larger or smaller than the null value while a non-directional hypothesis only validates the existence of a difference without stating its direction. 

Examples of Alternative Hypotheses  

• Starting your day with a cup of tea instead of a cup of coffee can make you more alert in the morning. 
• The growth of a plant improves significantly when it receives distilled water instead of vitamin-rich water. 

5. Logical Hypothesis

Logical hypotheses are some of the most common types of calculated assumptions in systematic investigations. It is an attempt to use your reasoning to connect different pieces in research and build a theory using little evidence. In this case, the researcher uses any data available to him, to form a plausible assumption that can be tested. 

Examples of Logical Hypothesis

• Waking up early helps you to have a more productive day. 
• Beings from Mars would not be able to breathe the air in the atmosphere of the Earth. 

6. Empirical Hypothesis  

After forming a logical hypothesis, the next step is to create an empirical or working hypothesis. At this stage, your logical hypothesis undergoes systematic testing to prove or disprove the assumption. An empirical hypothesis is subject to several variables that can trigger changes and lead to specific outcomes. 

Examples of Empirical Testing 

• People who eat more fish run faster than people who eat meat.
• Women taking vitamin E grow hair faster than those taking vitamin K.

7. Statistical Hypothesis

When forming a statistical hypothesis, the researcher examines the portion of a population of interest and makes a calculated assumption based on the data from this sample. A statistical hypothesis is most common with systematic investigations involving a large target audience. Here, it’s impossible to collect responses from every member of the population so you have to depend on data from your sample and extrapolate the results to the wider population. 

Examples of Statistical Hypothesis  

• 45% of students in Louisiana have middle-income parents. 
• 80% of the UK’s population gets a divorce because of irreconcilable differences.

What is Hypothesis Testing? 

Hypothesis testing is an assessment method that allows researchers to determine the plausibility of a hypothesis. It involves testing an assumption about a specific population parameter to know whether it’s true or false. These population parameters include variance, standard deviation, and median. 

Typically, hypothesis testing starts with developing a null hypothesis and then performing several tests that support or reject the null hypothesis. The researcher uses test statistics to compare the association or relationship between two or more variables. 

Explore: Research Bias: Definition, Types + Examples

Researchers also use hypothesis testing to calculate the coefficient of variation and determine if the regression relationship and the correlation coefficient are statistically significant.

How Hypothesis Testing Works

The basis of hypothesis testing is to examine and analyze the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis to know which one is the most plausible assumption. Since both assumptions are mutually exclusive, only one can be true. In other words, the occurrence of a null hypothesis destroys the chances of the alternative coming to life, and vice-versa. 

Interesting: 21 Chrome Extensions for Academic Researchers in 2021

What Are The Stages of Hypothesis Testing?  

To successfully confirm or refute an assumption, the researcher goes through five (5) stages of hypothesis testing; 

• Determine the null hypothesis
• Specify the alternative hypothesis
• Set the significance level
• Calculate the test statistics and corresponding P-value
• Draw your conclusion
• Determine the Null Hypothesis

Like we mentioned earlier, hypothesis testing starts with creating a null hypothesis which stands as an assumption that a certain statement is false or implausible. For example, the null hypothesis (H0) could suggest that different subgroups in the research population react to a variable in the same way. 

• Specify the Alternative Hypothesis

Once you know the variables for the null hypothesis, the next step is to determine the alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis counters the null assumption by suggesting the statement or assertion is true. Depending on the purpose of your research, the alternative hypothesis can be one-sided or two-sided. 

Using the example we established earlier, the alternative hypothesis may argue that the different sub-groups react differently to the same variable based on several internal and external factors. 

• Set the Significance Level

Many researchers create a 5% allowance for accepting the value of an alternative hypothesis, even if the value is untrue. This means that there is a 0.05 chance that one would go with the value of the alternative hypothesis, despite the truth of the null hypothesis. 

Something to note here is that the smaller the significance level, the greater the burden of proof needed to reject the null hypothesis and support the alternative hypothesis.

Explore: What is Data Interpretation? + [Types, Method & Tools]

• Calculate the Test Statistics and Corresponding P-Value 

Test statistics in hypothesis testing allow you to compare different groups between variables while the p-value accounts for the probability of obtaining sample statistics if your null hypothesis is true. In this case, your test statistics can be the mean, median and similar parameters. 

If your p-value is 0.65, for example, then it means that the variable in your hypothesis will happen 65 in100 times by pure chance. Use this formula to determine the p-value for your data: 

• Draw Your Conclusions

After conducting a series of tests, you should be able to agree or refute the hypothesis based on feedback and insights from your sample data.  

Applications of Hypothesis Testing in Research

Hypothesis testing isn’t only confined to numbers and calculations; it also has several real-life applications in business, manufacturing, advertising, and medicine. 

In a factory or other manufacturing plants, hypothesis testing is an important part of quality and production control before the final products are approved and sent out to the consumer. 

During ideation and strategy development, C-level executives use hypothesis testing to evaluate their theories and assumptions before any form of implementation. For example, they could leverage hypothesis testing to determine whether or not some new advertising campaign, marketing technique, etc. causes increased sales. 

In addition, hypothesis testing is used during clinical trials to prove the efficacy of a drug or new medical method before its approval for widespread human usage. 

What is an Example of Hypothesis Testing?

An employer claims that her workers are of above-average intelligence. She takes a random sample of 20 of them and gets the following results: 

Mean IQ Scores: 110

Standard Deviation: 15 

Mean Population IQ: 100

Step 1: Using the value of the mean population IQ, we establish the null hypothesis as 100.

Step 2: State that the alternative hypothesis is greater than 100.

Step 3: State the alpha level as 0.05 or 5% 

Step 4: Find the rejection region area (given by your alpha level above) from the z-table. An area of .05 is equal to a z-score of 1.645.

Step 5: Calculate the test statistics using this formula

Z = (110–100) ÷ (15÷√20) 

10 ÷ 3.35 = 2.99 

If the value of the test statistics is higher than the value of the rejection region, then you should reject the null hypothesis. If it is less, then you cannot reject the null. 

In this case, 2.99 > 1.645 so we reject the null. 

Importance/Benefits of Hypothesis Testing 

The most significant benefit of hypothesis testing is it allows you to evaluate the strength of your claim or assumption before implementing it in your data set. Also, hypothesis testing is the only valid method to prove that something “is or is not”. Other benefits include: 

• Hypothesis testing provides a reliable framework for making any data decisions for your population of interest. 
• It helps the researcher to successfully extrapolate data from the sample to the larger population. 
• Hypothesis testing allows the researcher to determine whether the data from the sample is statistically significant. 
• Hypothesis testing is one of the most important processes for measuring the validity and reliability of outcomes in any systematic investigation. 
• It helps to provide links to the underlying theory and specific research questions.

Criticism and Limitations of Hypothesis Testing

Several limitations of hypothesis testing can affect the quality of data you get from this process. Some of these limitations include: 

• The interpretation of a p-value for observation depends on the stopping rule and definition of multiple comparisons. This makes it difficult to calculate since the stopping rule is subject to numerous interpretations, plus “multiple comparisons” are unavoidably ambiguous. 
• Conceptual issues often arise in hypothesis testing, especially if the researcher merges Fisher and Neyman-Pearson’s methods which are conceptually distinct. 
• In an attempt to focus on the statistical significance of the data, the researcher might ignore the estimation and confirmation by repeated experiments.
• Hypothesis testing can trigger publication bias, especially when it requires statistical significance as a criterion for publication.
• When used to detect whether a difference exists between groups, hypothesis testing can trigger absurd assumptions that affect the reliability of your observation.

Connect to Formplus, Get Started Now - It's Free!

• alternative hypothesis
• alternative vs null hypothesis
• complex hypothesis
• empirical hypothesis
• hypothesis testing
• logical hypothesis
• simple hypothesis
• statistical hypothesis
• busayo.longe

You may also like:

Internal Validity in Research: Definition, Threats, Examples

In this article, we will discuss the concept of internal validity, some clear examples, its importance, and how to test it.

Type I vs Type II Errors: Causes, Examples & Prevention

This article will discuss the two different types of errors in hypothesis testing and how you can prevent them from occurring in your research

What is Pure or Basic Research? + [Examples & Method]

Simple guide on pure or basic research, its methods, characteristics, advantages, and examples in science, medicine, education and psychology

Alternative vs Null Hypothesis: Pros, Cons, Uses & Examples

We are going to discuss alternative hypotheses and null hypotheses in this post and how they work in research.

Formplus - For Seamless Data Collection

Collect data the right way with a versatile data collection tool. try formplus and transform your work productivity today..

• Translators
• Graphic Designers

Please enter the email address you used for your account. Your sign in information will be sent to your email address after it has been verified.

How To Write a Strong Research Hypothesis

Are you looking to take your research project to the next level? Have you heard of the power of a hypothesis but need to figure out how to formulate one that will unlock potential discoveries? We can help!

So get ready; it's time to dive into unlocking the power of research! This blog post will explore what makes a well-crafted and powerful hypothesis - from identifying a research question to developing supporting evidence.

By learning how to craft a compelling hypothesis, you'll have more tremendous success in every step of your research project.

What are hypotheses, and why are they important?

A hypothesis is an educated guess or a proposition based on limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation. It provides a framework for research and allows researchers to refine their ideas, collect data, and draw conclusions. Hypotheses are essential to the process because they will enable us to organize our thoughts and test theories properly.

Hypotheses are used in many fields , from medicine to psychology to economics. In each area, developing hypotheses based on observations enable researchers to make predictions about their data and guide them toward finding meaningful results.

For example, in medicine, hypotheses can be used to predict which treatments will be most effective for particular conditions or which drugs may have adverse effects when taken together. This allows doctors to make better decisions when caring for patients.

In psychology, hypotheses are often used in experiments to determine whether certain variables influence behavior or mental processes. By testing different combinations of variables, psychologists can identify patterns and understand why people behave the way they do.

In economics, hypotheses provide economists with a framework for analyzing the relationship between economic variables such as wages and consumer spending habits. By understanding these relationships, economists can better understand how economic forces affect the economy.

Overall, hypotheses play an essential role in helping scientists develop new ideas and draw meaningful conclusions from the collected data. Without taking the step to create hypotheses, it would be difficult for researchers to make sense of the vast amounts of information available today and use it effectively in their investigations.

How to determine an effective research question to form your hypothesis

When conducting research, having a compelling research question is critical . Properly formulating this question will allow the researcher to develop their hypothesis. A research question provides a clear and focused goal for your research study and also gives direction on how to get there. A compelling research question should be specific, answerable in the context of your field of study, significant, novel (not already answered by previous studies), and timely – that is, relevant to current events or trends.

Before determining the best research question, you must first understand your topic. Think about the area of knowledge that interests you most and narrow it down to a single theme or concept within this topic. Focus on what interests you most within this theme, and make sure there is room for further exploration and analysis. Once you have chosen a specific topic and narrowed down your focus, you can begin formulating questions related to your project.

To ensure relevance and impact to your field of study, choose questions that address essential issues in the literature or suggest solutions to existing problems. Avoid overly broad topics with unclear objectives; instead, opt for focused questions to enable targeted data collection and analysis with concrete results.

Additionally, consider time frames when formulating questions. If the issue has been discussed extensively in the past but has not been revisited recently, then it's likely not worthy of a new investigation.

Once you have developed some potential questions related to your topic, review them carefully and decide which question best captures the essence of what you want to learn through researching this topic.

Ask yourself:

• Is this question answerable?
• Does it fit within my field of study?
• Is it significant enough?
• Would its findings be novel?

If so, then congratulations! You have identified a compelling research question.

Tips for crafting a well-crafted hypothesis

Once you have formulated the official research question, you may develop the formal hypothesis. When composing a hypothesis, it's essential to think carefully about the question you are trying to answer.

A solid hypothesis should be testable, meaning that it can be verified or disproved through research. It should also be specific and focused on one issue at a time. Here are some tips for crafting a well-crafted hypothesis:

• Consider the goal of your research: Think about what it is that you want to learn or determine from your experiment and make sure that your hypothesis reflects this goal.
• Create an educated guess as to why something is happening: Your hypothesis should explain why something is occurring based on what evidence you already have and direct further investigation into the matter. For example, if you hypothesize that increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will lead to global warming, your research should focus on examining this relationship further.
• Define any variables or parameters involved in the experiment: This includes things like temperature or chemical composition that could potentially affect the outcome of any experiments done in pursuit of testing your hypothesis.
• Use clear and precise language: Make sure your hypothesis is written with clear and precise language so that anyone reading it can understand exactly what you are attempting to investigate or explain. Avoid complex words and keep sentences short whenever possible.

Following these simple tips will help ensure that your hypothesis is well-crafted and ready for testing!

Examples of evidence that can support your hypothesis

When it comes to developing a hypothesis, supporting evidence is essential for making sure it holds up. This evidence helps strengthen the argument that is being driven by providing facts and logical reasoning that support the hypothesis.

Examples of evidence that can be used to back up a hypothesis include using data from experiments, case studies, and other research projects. Data from experiments can provide insight into how certain variables interact to form a particular outcome.

Case studies may offer greater depth in understanding a specific phenomenon's cause and effect; research projects may yield results that confirm or refute existing theories on a subject.

In addition to these traditional forms of evidence, personal experiences or observations can also help to support a hypothesis. For example, if someone's daily commute has been consistently faster since they changed routes, they could use their personal experience to argue that making this change resulted in shorter commutes.

Similarly, suppose someone has witnessed how two variables consistently coincide (i.e., when one goes up, another goes down). In that case, this could be used to support the notion that there is some correlation between these two aspects.

Overall, evidence to support your hypothesis is crucial for ensuring its validity and credibility. While conducting experiments or researching may seem like time-consuming processes, having solid supporting evidence will make it much easier to defend your ideas convincingly when challenged.

Therefore, it is crucial to take the time necessary to gather credible sources of information to provide the most substantial possible backing for your hypotheses.

Understanding the potential of hypotheses and how they can help your research project progress

The power of research lies in the ability to develop and test hypotheses. A hypothesis is a statement or an idea that can be tested to determine its validity.

Essentially, it is a form of educated guesswork that helps researchers form conclusions about their data. By developing a hypothesis for a research project, you are effectively setting up the framework for further exploration.

When developing a hypothesis, you must consider both the expected outcomes and possible alternative explanations. This will help you focus on testing the possible results without getting sidetracked by irrelevant information. Once you have established a concrete hypothesis, it can then be used as a basis for further research and experimentation.

The process of testing hypotheses is an integral part of the scientific method and can help researchers build confidence in their findings and conclusions. Through careful observation and experimentation, researchers can compare their results against what they initially hypothesized, allowing them to draw more accurate conclusions about their data. As such, hypotheses play an essential role in helping researchers connect the dots between different pieces of evidence and form meaningful conclusions.

Overall, understanding how hypotheses can be used in research projects can be immensely beneficial in helping progress towards reaching meaningful insights from their data. By setting up expectations ahead of time and then testing them against real-world conditions, researchers can gain valuable insights that could potentially change the way we understand our world – now that's something worth exploring!

Final thoughts

A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for an observable phenomenon. It's important to note that hypotheses are not the same thing as theories–a theory is a much broader and well-established frame of reference that explains multiple phenomena.

Generally, scientists form a research question and then narrow it down to a testable hypothesis. After making observations and conducting experiments to gather data, researchers can use evidence to support or reject the hypothesis.

By following these steps to formulate a solid hypothesis, you will be on your way to developing a successful research project. Happy researching!

Header image by Bnenin .

Related Posts

MLA Style Made Easy

Tips for Writing an Effective Background of the Study

• Academic Writing Advice
• All Blog Posts
• Writing Advice
• Admissions Writing Advice
• Book Writing Advice
• Short Story Advice
• Employment Writing Advice
• Business Writing Advice
• Web Content Advice
• Article Writing Advice
• Magazine Writing Advice
• Grammar Advice
• Dialect Advice
• Editing Advice
• Freelance Advice
• Legal Writing Advice
• Poetry Advice
• Graphic Design Advice
• Logo Design Advice
• Translation Advice
• Blog Reviews
• Short Story Award Winners
• Scholarship Winners

Need an academic editor before submitting your work?

Have a language expert improve your writing

Run a free plagiarism check in 10 minutes, automatically generate references for free.

• Knowledge Base
• Methodology
• How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Guide & Examples

How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Guide & Examples

Published on 6 May 2022 by Shona McCombes .

A hypothesis is a statement that can be tested by scientific research. If you want to test a relationship between two or more variables, you need to write hypotheses before you start your experiment or data collection.

Table of contents

What is a hypothesis, developing a hypothesis (with example), hypothesis examples, frequently asked questions about writing hypotheses.

A hypothesis states your predictions about what your research will find. It is a tentative answer to your research question that has not yet been tested. For some research projects, you might have to write several hypotheses that address different aspects of your research question.

A hypothesis is not just a guess – it should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations, and statistical analysis of data).

Variables in hypotheses

Hypotheses propose a relationship between two or more variables . An independent variable is something the researcher changes or controls. A dependent variable is something the researcher observes and measures.

In this example, the independent variable is exposure to the sun – the assumed cause . The dependent variable is the level of happiness – the assumed effect .

Prevent plagiarism, run a free check.

Step 1: ask a question.

Writing a hypothesis begins with a research question that you want to answer. The question should be focused, specific, and researchable within the constraints of your project.

Step 2: Do some preliminary research

Your initial answer to the question should be based on what is already known about the topic. Look for theories and previous studies to help you form educated assumptions about what your research will find.

At this stage, you might construct a conceptual framework to identify which variables you will study and what you think the relationships are between them. Sometimes, you’ll have to operationalise more complex constructs.

Step 3: Formulate your hypothesis

Now you should have some idea of what you expect to find. Write your initial answer to the question in a clear, concise sentence.

Step 4: Refine your hypothesis

You need to make sure your hypothesis is specific and testable. There are various ways of phrasing a hypothesis, but all the terms you use should have clear definitions, and the hypothesis should contain:

• The relevant variables
• The specific group being studied
• The predicted outcome of the experiment or analysis

Step 5: Phrase your hypothesis in three ways

To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in if … then form. The first part of the sentence states the independent variable and the second part states the dependent variable.

In academic research, hypotheses are more commonly phrased in terms of correlations or effects, where you directly state the predicted relationship between variables.

If you are comparing two groups, the hypothesis can state what difference you expect to find between them.

Step 6. Write a null hypothesis

If your research involves statistical hypothesis testing , you will also have to write a null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the default position that there is no association between the variables. The null hypothesis is written as H 0 , while the alternative hypothesis is H 1 or H a .

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

A hypothesis is not just a guess. It should be based on existing theories and knowledge. It also has to be testable, which means you can support or refute it through scientific research methods (such as experiments, observations, and statistical analysis of data).

A research hypothesis is your proposed answer to your research question. The research hypothesis usually includes an explanation (‘ x affects y because …’).

A statistical hypothesis, on the other hand, is a mathematical statement about a population parameter. Statistical hypotheses always come in pairs: the null and alternative hypotheses. In a well-designed study , the statistical hypotheses correspond logically to the research hypothesis.

Cite this Scribbr article

If you want to cite this source, you can copy and paste the citation or click the ‘Cite this Scribbr article’ button to automatically add the citation to our free Reference Generator.

McCombes, S. (2022, May 06). How to Write a Strong Hypothesis | Guide & Examples. Scribbr. Retrieved 3 June 2024, from https://www.scribbr.co.uk/research-methods/hypothesis-writing/

Is this article helpful?

Shona McCombes

Other students also liked, operationalisation | a guide with examples, pros & cons, what is a conceptual framework | tips & examples, a quick guide to experimental design | 5 steps & examples.

• Skip to main content
• Skip to primary sidebar
• Skip to footer
• QuestionPro

• Solutions Industries Gaming Automotive Sports and events Education Government Travel & Hospitality Financial Services Healthcare Cannabis Technology Use Case NPS+ Communities Audience Contactless surveys Mobile LivePolls Member Experience GDPR Positive People Science 360 Feedback Surveys
• Resources Blog eBooks Survey Templates Case Studies Training Help center

Home Market Research

Research Hypothesis: What It Is, Types + How to Develop?

A research study starts with a question. Researchers worldwide ask questions and create research hypotheses. The effectiveness of research relies on developing a good research hypothesis. Examples of research hypotheses can guide researchers in writing effective ones.

In this blog, we’ll learn what a research hypothesis is, why it’s important in research, and the different types used in science. We’ll also guide you through creating your research hypothesis and discussing ways to test and evaluate it.

What is a Research Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is like a guess or idea that you suggest to check if it’s true. A research hypothesis is a statement that brings up a question and predicts what might happen.

It’s really important in the scientific method and is used in experiments to figure things out. Essentially, it’s an educated guess about how things are connected in the research.

A research hypothesis usually includes pointing out the independent variable (the thing they’re changing or studying) and the dependent variable (the result they’re measuring or watching). It helps plan how to gather and analyze data to see if there’s evidence to support or deny the expected connection between these variables.

Importance of Hypothesis in Research

Hypotheses are really important in research. They help design studies, allow for practical testing, and add to our scientific knowledge. Their main role is to organize research projects, making them purposeful, focused, and valuable to the scientific community. Let’s look at some key reasons why they matter:

• A research hypothesis helps test theories.

A hypothesis plays a pivotal role in the scientific method by providing a basis for testing existing theories. For example, a hypothesis might test the predictive power of a psychological theory on human behavior.

• It serves as a great platform for investigation activities.

It serves as a launching pad for investigation activities, which offers researchers a clear starting point. A research hypothesis can explore the relationship between exercise and stress reduction.

• Hypothesis guides the research work or study.

A well-formulated hypothesis guides the entire research process. It ensures that the study remains focused and purposeful. For instance, a hypothesis about the impact of social media on interpersonal relationships provides clear guidance for a study.

• Hypothesis sometimes suggests theories.

In some cases, a hypothesis can suggest new theories or modifications to existing ones. For example, a hypothesis testing the effectiveness of a new drug might prompt a reconsideration of current medical theories.

• It helps in knowing the data needs.

A hypothesis clarifies the data requirements for a study, ensuring that researchers collect the necessary information—a hypothesis guiding the collection of demographic data to analyze the influence of age on a particular phenomenon.

• The hypothesis explains social phenomena.

Hypotheses are instrumental in explaining complex social phenomena. For instance, a hypothesis might explore the relationship between economic factors and crime rates in a given community.

• Hypothesis provides a relationship between phenomena for empirical Testing.

Hypotheses establish clear relationships between phenomena, paving the way for empirical testing. An example could be a hypothesis exploring the correlation between sleep patterns and academic performance.

• It helps in knowing the most suitable analysis technique.

A hypothesis guides researchers in selecting the most appropriate analysis techniques for their data. For example, a hypothesis focusing on the effectiveness of a teaching method may lead to the choice of statistical analyses best suited for educational research.

Characteristics of a Good Research Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a specific idea that you can test in a study. It often comes from looking at past research and theories. A good hypothesis usually starts with a research question that you can explore through background research. For it to be effective, consider these key characteristics:

• Clear and Focused Language: A good hypothesis uses clear and focused language to avoid confusion and ensure everyone understands it.
• Related to the Research Topic: The hypothesis should directly relate to the research topic, acting as a bridge between the specific question and the broader study.
• Testable: An effective hypothesis can be tested, meaning its prediction can be checked with real data to support or challenge the proposed relationship.
• Potential for Exploration: A good hypothesis often comes from a research question that invites further exploration. Doing background research helps find gaps and potential areas to investigate.
• Includes Variables: The hypothesis should clearly state both the independent and dependent variables, specifying the factors being studied and the expected outcomes.
• Ethical Considerations: Check if variables can be manipulated without breaking ethical standards. It’s crucial to maintain ethical research practices.
• Predicts Outcomes: The hypothesis should predict the expected relationship and outcome, acting as a roadmap for the study and guiding data collection and analysis.
• Simple and Concise: A good hypothesis avoids unnecessary complexity and is simple and concise, expressing the essence of the proposed relationship clearly.
• Clear and Assumption-Free: The hypothesis should be clear and free from assumptions about the reader’s prior knowledge, ensuring universal understanding.
• Observable and Testable Results: A strong hypothesis implies research that produces observable and testable results, making sure the study’s outcomes can be effectively measured and analyzed.

When you use these characteristics as a checklist, it can help you create a good research hypothesis. It’ll guide improving and strengthening the hypothesis, identifying any weaknesses, and making necessary changes. Crafting a hypothesis with these features helps you conduct a thorough and insightful research study.

Types of Research Hypotheses

The research hypothesis comes in various types, each serving a specific purpose in guiding the scientific investigation. Knowing the differences will make it easier for you to create your own hypothesis. Here’s an overview of the common types:

01. Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis states that there is no connection between two considered variables or that two groups are unrelated. As discussed earlier, a hypothesis is an unproven assumption lacking sufficient supporting data. It serves as the statement researchers aim to disprove. It is testable, verifiable, and can be rejected.

For example, if you’re studying the relationship between Project A and Project B, assuming both projects are of equal standard is your null hypothesis. It needs to be specific for your study.

02. Alternative Hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis is basically another option to the null hypothesis. It involves looking for a significant change or alternative that could lead you to reject the null hypothesis. It’s a different idea compared to the null hypothesis.

When you create a null hypothesis, you’re making an educated guess about whether something is true or if there’s a connection between that thing and another variable. If the null view suggests something is correct, the alternative hypothesis says it’s incorrect. 

For instance, if your null hypothesis is “I’m going to be $1000 richer,” the alternative hypothesis would be “I’m not going to get $1000 or be richer.”

03. Directional Hypothesis

The directional hypothesis predicts the direction of the relationship between independent and dependent variables. They specify whether the effect will be positive or negative.

If you increase your study hours, you will experience a positive association with your exam scores. This hypothesis suggests that as you increase the independent variable (study hours), there will also be an increase in the dependent variable (exam scores).

04. Non-directional Hypothesis

The non-directional hypothesis predicts the existence of a relationship between variables but does not specify the direction of the effect. It suggests that there will be a significant difference or relationship, but it does not predict the nature of that difference.

For example, you will find no notable difference in test scores between students who receive the educational intervention and those who do not. However, once you compare the test scores of the two groups, you will notice an important difference.

05. Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis predicts a relationship between one dependent variable and one independent variable without specifying the nature of that relationship. It’s simple and usually used when we don’t know much about how the two things are connected.

For example, if you adopt effective study habits, you will achieve higher exam scores than those with poor study habits.

06. Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis is an idea that specifies a relationship between multiple independent and dependent variables. It is a more detailed idea than a simple hypothesis.

While a simple view suggests a straightforward cause-and-effect relationship between two things, a complex hypothesis involves many factors and how they’re connected to each other.

For example, when you increase your study time, you tend to achieve higher exam scores. The connection between your study time and exam performance is affected by various factors, including the quality of your sleep, your motivation levels, and the effectiveness of your study techniques.

If you sleep well, stay highly motivated, and use effective study strategies, you may observe a more robust positive correlation between the time you spend studying and your exam scores, unlike those who may lack these factors.

07. Associative Hypothesis

An associative hypothesis proposes a connection between two things without saying that one causes the other. Basically, it suggests that when one thing changes, the other changes too, but it doesn’t claim that one thing is causing the change in the other.

For example, you will likely notice higher exam scores when you increase your study time. You can recognize an association between your study time and exam scores in this scenario.

Your hypothesis acknowledges a relationship between the two variables—your study time and exam scores—without asserting that increased study time directly causes higher exam scores. You need to consider that other factors, like motivation or learning style, could affect the observed association.

08. Causal Hypothesis

A causal hypothesis proposes a cause-and-effect relationship between two variables. It suggests that changes in one variable directly cause changes in another variable.

For example, when you increase your study time, you experience higher exam scores. This hypothesis suggests a direct cause-and-effect relationship, indicating that the more time you spend studying, the higher your exam scores. It assumes that changes in your study time directly influence changes in your exam performance.

09. Empirical Hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is a statement based on things we can see and measure. It comes from direct observation or experiments and can be tested with real-world evidence. If an experiment proves a theory, it supports the idea and shows it’s not just a guess. This makes the statement more reliable than a wild guess.

For example, if you increase the dosage of a certain medication, you might observe a quicker recovery time for patients. Imagine you’re in charge of a clinical trial. In this trial, patients are given varying dosages of the medication, and you measure and compare their recovery times. This allows you to directly see the effects of different dosages on how fast patients recover.

This way, you can create a research hypothesis: “Increasing the dosage of a certain medication will lead to a faster recovery time for patients.”

10. Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a statement or assumption about a population parameter that is the subject of an investigation. It serves as the basis for statistical analysis and testing. It is often tested using statistical methods to draw inferences about the larger population.

In a hypothesis test, statistical evidence is collected to either reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis or fail to reject the null hypothesis due to insufficient evidence.

For example, let’s say you’re testing a new medicine. Your hypothesis could be that the medicine doesn’t really help patients get better. So, you collect data and use statistics to see if your guess is right or if the medicine actually makes a difference.

If the data strongly shows that the medicine does help, you say your guess was wrong, and the medicine does make a difference. But if the proof isn’t strong enough, you can stick with your original guess because you didn’t get enough evidence to change your mind.

How to Develop a Research Hypotheses?

Step 1: identify your research problem or topic..

Define the area of interest or the problem you want to investigate. Make sure it’s clear and well-defined.

Start by asking a question about your chosen topic. Consider the limitations of your research and create a straightforward problem related to your topic. Once you’ve done that, you can develop and test a hypothesis with evidence.

Step 2: Conduct a literature review

Review existing literature related to your research problem. This will help you understand the current state of knowledge in the field, identify gaps, and build a foundation for your hypothesis. Consider the following questions:

• What existing research has been conducted on your chosen topic?
• Are there any gaps or unanswered questions in the current literature?
• How will the existing literature contribute to the foundation of your research?

Step 3: Formulate your research question

Based on your literature review, create a specific and concise research question that addresses your identified problem. Your research question should be clear, focused, and relevant to your field of study.

Step 4: Identify variables

Determine the key variables involved in your research question. Variables are the factors or phenomena that you will study and manipulate to test your hypothesis.

• Independent Variable: The variable you manipulate or control.
• Dependent Variable: The variable you measure to observe the effect of the independent variable.

Step 5: State the Null hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that there is no significant difference or effect. It serves as a baseline for comparison with the alternative hypothesis.

Step 6: Select appropriate methods for testing the hypothesis

Choose research methods that align with your study objectives, such as experiments, surveys, or observational studies. The selected methods enable you to test your research hypothesis effectively.

Creating a research hypothesis usually takes more than one try. Expect to make changes as you collect data. It’s normal to test and say no to a few hypotheses before you find the right answer to your research question.

Testing and Evaluating Hypotheses

Testing hypotheses is a really important part of research. It’s like the practical side of things. Here, real-world evidence will help you determine how different things are connected. Let’s explore the main steps in hypothesis testing:

• State your research hypothesis.

Before testing, clearly articulate your research hypothesis. This involves framing both a null hypothesis, suggesting no significant effect or relationship, and an alternative hypothesis, proposing the expected outcome.

• Collect data strategically.

Plan how you will gather information in a way that fits your study. Make sure your data collection method matches the things you’re studying.

Whether through surveys, observations, or experiments, this step demands precision and adherence to the established methodology. The quality of data collected directly influences the credibility of study outcomes.

• Perform an appropriate statistical test.

Choose a statistical test that aligns with the nature of your data and the hypotheses being tested. Whether it’s a t-test, chi-square test, ANOVA, or regression analysis, selecting the right statistical tool is paramount for accurate and reliable results.

• Decide if your idea was right or wrong.

Following the statistical analysis, evaluate the results in the context of your null hypothesis. You need to decide if you should reject your null hypothesis or not.

• Share what you found.

When discussing what you found in your research, be clear and organized. Say whether your idea was supported or not, and talk about what your results mean. Also, mention any limits to your study and suggest ideas for future research.

The Role of QuestionPro to Develop a Good Research Hypothesis

QuestionPro is a survey and research platform that provides tools for creating, distributing, and analyzing surveys. It plays a crucial role in the research process, especially when you’re in the initial stages of hypothesis development. Here’s how QuestionPro can help you to develop a good research hypothesis:

• Survey design and data collection: You can use the platform to create targeted questions that help you gather relevant data.
• Exploratory research: Through surveys and feedback mechanisms on QuestionPro, you can conduct exploratory research to understand the landscape of a particular subject.
• Literature review and background research: QuestionPro surveys can collect sample population opinions, experiences, and preferences. This data and a thorough literature evaluation can help you generate a well-grounded hypothesis by improving your research knowledge.
• Identifying variables: Using targeted survey questions, you can identify relevant variables related to their research topic.
• Testing assumptions: You can use surveys to informally test certain assumptions or hypotheses before formalizing a research hypothesis.
• Data analysis tools: QuestionPro provides tools for analyzing survey data. You can use these tools to identify the collected data’s patterns, correlations, or trends.
• Refining your hypotheses: As you collect data through QuestionPro, you can adjust your hypotheses based on the real-world responses you receive.

A research hypothesis is like a guide for researchers in science. It’s a well-thought-out idea that has been thoroughly tested. This idea is crucial as researchers can explore different fields, such as medicine, social sciences, and natural sciences. The research hypothesis links theories to real-world evidence and gives researchers a clear path to explore and make discoveries.

QuestionPro Research Suite is a helpful tool for researchers. It makes creating surveys, collecting data, and analyzing information easily. It supports all kinds of research, from exploring new ideas to forming hypotheses. With a focus on using data, it helps researchers do their best work.

Are you interested in learning more about QuestionPro Research Suite? Take advantage of QuestionPro’s free trial to get an initial look at its capabilities and realize the full potential of your research efforts.

LEARN MORE         FREE TRIAL

MORE LIKE THIS

Why Multilingual 360 Feedback Surveys Provide Better Insights

Jun 3, 2024

Raked Weighting: A Key Tool for Accurate Survey Results

May 31, 2024

Top 8 Data Trends to Understand the Future of Data

May 30, 2024

Top 12 Interactive Presentation Software to Engage Your User

May 29, 2024

Other categories

• Academic Research
• Artificial Intelligence
• Assessments
• Brand Awareness
• Case Studies
• Communities
• Consumer Insights
• Customer effort score
• Customer Engagement
• Customer Experience
• Customer Loyalty
• Customer Research
• Customer Satisfaction
• Employee Benefits
• Employee Engagement
• Employee Retention
• Friday Five
• General Data Protection Regulation
• Insights Hub
• Life@QuestionPro
• Market Research
• Mobile diaries
• Mobile Surveys
• New Features
• Online Communities
• Question Types
• Questionnaire
• QuestionPro Products
• Release Notes
• Research Tools and Apps
• Revenue at Risk
• Survey Templates
• Training Tips
• Uncategorized
• Video Learning Series
• What’s Coming Up
• Workforce Intelligence

• Bipolar Disorder
• Therapy Center
• When To See a Therapist
• Types of Therapy
• Best Online Therapy
• Best Couples Therapy
• Best Family Therapy
• Managing Stress
• Sleep and Dreaming
• Understanding Emotions
• Self-Improvement
• Healthy Relationships
• Student Resources
• Personality Types
• Guided Meditations
• Verywell Mind Insights
• 2024 Verywell Mind 25
• Mental Health in the Classroom
• Editorial Process
• Meet Our Review Board
• Crisis Support

How to Write a Great Hypothesis

Hypothesis Definition, Format, Examples, and Tips

Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

Amy Morin, LCSW, is a psychotherapist and international bestselling author. Her books, including "13 Things Mentally Strong People Don't Do," have been translated into more than 40 languages. Her TEDx talk,  "The Secret of Becoming Mentally Strong," is one of the most viewed talks of all time.

Verywell / Alex Dos Diaz

• The Scientific Method

Hypothesis Format

Falsifiability of a hypothesis.

• Operationalization

Hypothesis Types

Hypotheses examples.

• Collecting Data

A hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables. It is a specific, testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study. It is a preliminary answer to your question that helps guide the research process.

Consider a study designed to examine the relationship between sleep deprivation and test performance. The hypothesis might be: "This study is designed to assess the hypothesis that sleep-deprived people will perform worse on a test than individuals who are not sleep-deprived."

At a Glance

A hypothesis is crucial to scientific research because it offers a clear direction for what the researchers are looking to find. This allows them to design experiments to test their predictions and add to our scientific knowledge about the world. This article explores how a hypothesis is used in psychology research, how to write a good hypothesis, and the different types of hypotheses you might use.

The Hypothesis in the Scientific Method

In the scientific method , whether it involves research in psychology, biology, or some other area, a hypothesis represents what the researchers think will happen in an experiment. The scientific method involves the following steps:

• Forming a question
• Performing background research
• Creating a hypothesis
• Designing an experiment
• Collecting data
• Analyzing the results
• Drawing conclusions
• Communicating the results

The hypothesis is a prediction, but it involves more than a guess. Most of the time, the hypothesis begins with a question which is then explored through background research. At this point, researchers then begin to develop a testable hypothesis.

Unless you are creating an exploratory study, your hypothesis should always explain what you  expect  to happen.

In a study exploring the effects of a particular drug, the hypothesis might be that researchers expect the drug to have some type of effect on the symptoms of a specific illness. In psychology, the hypothesis might focus on how a certain aspect of the environment might influence a particular behavior.

Remember, a hypothesis does not have to be correct. While the hypothesis predicts what the researchers expect to see, the goal of the research is to determine whether this guess is right or wrong. When conducting an experiment, researchers might explore numerous factors to determine which ones might contribute to the ultimate outcome.

In many cases, researchers may find that the results of an experiment  do not  support the original hypothesis. When writing up these results, the researchers might suggest other options that should be explored in future studies.

In many cases, researchers might draw a hypothesis from a specific theory or build on previous research. For example, prior research has shown that stress can impact the immune system. So a researcher might hypothesize: "People with high-stress levels will be more likely to contract a common cold after being exposed to the virus than people who have low-stress levels."

In other instances, researchers might look at commonly held beliefs or folk wisdom. "Birds of a feather flock together" is one example of folk adage that a psychologist might try to investigate. The researcher might pose a specific hypothesis that "People tend to select romantic partners who are similar to them in interests and educational level."

Elements of a Good Hypothesis

So how do you write a good hypothesis? When trying to come up with a hypothesis for your research or experiments, ask yourself the following questions:

• Is your hypothesis based on your research on a topic?
• Can your hypothesis be tested?
• Does your hypothesis include independent and dependent variables?

Before you come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing background research. Once you have completed a literature review, start thinking about potential questions you still have. Pay attention to the discussion section in the  journal articles you read . Many authors will suggest questions that still need to be explored.

How to Formulate a Good Hypothesis

To form a hypothesis, you should take these steps:

• Collect as many observations about a topic or problem as you can.
• Evaluate these observations and look for possible causes of the problem.
• Create a list of possible explanations that you might want to explore.
• After you have developed some possible hypotheses, think of ways that you could confirm or disprove each hypothesis through experimentation. This is known as falsifiability.

In the scientific method ,  falsifiability is an important part of any valid hypothesis. In order to test a claim scientifically, it must be possible that the claim could be proven false.

Students sometimes confuse the idea of falsifiability with the idea that it means that something is false, which is not the case. What falsifiability means is that  if  something was false, then it is possible to demonstrate that it is false.

One of the hallmarks of pseudoscience is that it makes claims that cannot be refuted or proven false.

The Importance of Operational Definitions

A variable is a factor or element that can be changed and manipulated in ways that are observable and measurable. However, the researcher must also define how the variable will be manipulated and measured in the study.

Operational definitions are specific definitions for all relevant factors in a study. This process helps make vague or ambiguous concepts detailed and measurable.

For example, a researcher might operationally define the variable " test anxiety " as the results of a self-report measure of anxiety experienced during an exam. A "study habits" variable might be defined by the amount of studying that actually occurs as measured by time.

These precise descriptions are important because many things can be measured in various ways. Clearly defining these variables and how they are measured helps ensure that other researchers can replicate your results.

Replicability

One of the basic principles of any type of scientific research is that the results must be replicable.

Replication means repeating an experiment in the same way to produce the same results. By clearly detailing the specifics of how the variables were measured and manipulated, other researchers can better understand the results and repeat the study if needed.

Some variables are more difficult than others to define. For example, how would you operationally define a variable such as aggression ? For obvious ethical reasons, researchers cannot create a situation in which a person behaves aggressively toward others.

To measure this variable, the researcher must devise a measurement that assesses aggressive behavior without harming others. The researcher might utilize a simulated task to measure aggressiveness in this situation.

Hypothesis Checklist

• Does your hypothesis focus on something that you can actually test?
• Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
• Can you manipulate the variables?
• Can your hypothesis be tested without violating ethical standards?

The hypothesis you use will depend on what you are investigating and hoping to find. Some of the main types of hypotheses that you might use include:

• Simple hypothesis : This type of hypothesis suggests there is a relationship between one independent variable and one dependent variable.
• Complex hypothesis : This type suggests a relationship between three or more variables, such as two independent and dependent variables.
• Null hypothesis : This hypothesis suggests no relationship exists between two or more variables.
• Alternative hypothesis : This hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.
• Statistical hypothesis : This hypothesis uses statistical analysis to evaluate a representative population sample and then generalizes the findings to the larger group.
• Logical hypothesis : This hypothesis assumes a relationship between variables without collecting data or evidence.

A hypothesis often follows a basic format of "If {this happens} then {this will happen}." One way to structure your hypothesis is to describe what will happen to the  dependent variable  if you change the  independent variable .

The basic format might be: "If {these changes are made to a certain independent variable}, then we will observe {a change in a specific dependent variable}."

A few examples of simple hypotheses:

• "Students who eat breakfast will perform better on a math exam than students who do not eat breakfast."
• "Students who experience test anxiety before an English exam will get lower scores than students who do not experience test anxiety."​
• "Motorists who talk on the phone while driving will be more likely to make errors on a driving course than those who do not talk on the phone."
• "Children who receive a new reading intervention will have higher reading scores than students who do not receive the intervention."

Examples of a complex hypothesis include:

• "People with high-sugar diets and sedentary activity levels are more likely to develop depression."
• "Younger people who are regularly exposed to green, outdoor areas have better subjective well-being than older adults who have limited exposure to green spaces."

Examples of a null hypothesis include:

• "There is no difference in anxiety levels between people who take St. John's wort supplements and those who do not."
• "There is no difference in scores on a memory recall task between children and adults."
• "There is no difference in aggression levels between children who play first-person shooter games and those who do not."

Examples of an alternative hypothesis:

• "People who take St. John's wort supplements will have less anxiety than those who do not."
• "Adults will perform better on a memory task than children."
• "Children who play first-person shooter games will show higher levels of aggression than children who do not." 

Collecting Data on Your Hypothesis

Once a researcher has formed a testable hypothesis, the next step is to select a research design and start collecting data. The research method depends largely on exactly what they are studying. There are two basic types of research methods: descriptive research and experimental research.

Descriptive Research Methods

Descriptive research such as  case studies ,  naturalistic observations , and surveys are often used when  conducting an experiment is difficult or impossible. These methods are best used to describe different aspects of a behavior or psychological phenomenon.

Once a researcher has collected data using descriptive methods, a  correlational study  can examine how the variables are related. This research method might be used to investigate a hypothesis that is difficult to test experimentally.

Experimental Research Methods

Experimental methods  are used to demonstrate causal relationships between variables. In an experiment, the researcher systematically manipulates a variable of interest (known as the independent variable) and measures the effect on another variable (known as the dependent variable).

Unlike correlational studies, which can only be used to determine if there is a relationship between two variables, experimental methods can be used to determine the actual nature of the relationship—whether changes in one variable actually  cause  another to change.

The hypothesis is a critical part of any scientific exploration. It represents what researchers expect to find in a study or experiment. In situations where the hypothesis is unsupported by the research, the research still has value. Such research helps us better understand how different aspects of the natural world relate to one another. It also helps us develop new hypotheses that can then be tested in the future.

Thompson WH, Skau S. On the scope of scientific hypotheses .  R Soc Open Sci . 2023;10(8):230607. doi:10.1098/rsos.230607

Taran S, Adhikari NKJ, Fan E. Falsifiability in medicine: what clinicians can learn from Karl Popper [published correction appears in Intensive Care Med. 2021 Jun 17;:].  Intensive Care Med . 2021;47(9):1054-1056. doi:10.1007/s00134-021-06432-z

Eyler AA. Research Methods for Public Health . 1st ed. Springer Publishing Company; 2020. doi:10.1891/9780826182067.0004

Nosek BA, Errington TM. What is replication ?  PLoS Biol . 2020;18(3):e3000691. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3000691

Aggarwal R, Ranganathan P. Study designs: Part 2 - Descriptive studies .  Perspect Clin Res . 2019;10(1):34-36. doi:10.4103/picr.PICR_154_18

Nevid J. Psychology: Concepts and Applications. Wadworth, 2013.

By Kendra Cherry, MSEd Kendra Cherry, MS, is a psychosocial rehabilitation specialist, psychology educator, and author of the "Everything Psychology Book."

• What is Strategy?
• Business Models
• Developing a Strategy
• Strategic Planning
• Competitive Advantage
• Growth Strategy
• Market Strategy
• Customer Strategy
• Geographic Strategy
• Product Strategy
• Service Strategy
• Pricing Strategy
• Distribution Strategy
• Sales Strategy
• Marketing Strategy
• Digital Marketing Strategy
• Organizational Strategy
• HR Strategy – Organizational Design
• HR Strategy – Employee Journey & Culture
• Process Strategy
• Procurement Strategy
• Cost and Capital Strategy
• Business Value
• Market Analysis
• Problem Solving Skills
• Strategic Options
• Business Analytics
• Strategic Decision Making
• Process Improvement
• Project Planning
• Team Leadership
• Personal Development
• Leadership Maturity Model
• Leadership Team Strategy
• The Leadership Team
• Leadership Mindset
• Communication & Collaboration
• Problem Solving
• Decision Making
• People Leadership
• Strategic Execution
• Executive Coaching
• Strategy Coaching
• Business Transformation
• Strategy Workshops
• Leadership Strategy Survey
• Leadership Training
• Who’s Joe?

“A fact is a simple statement that everyone believes. It is innocent, unless found guilty. A hypothesis is a novel suggestion that no one wants to believe. It is guilty until found effective.”

– Edward Teller, Nuclear Physicist

During my first brainstorming meeting on my first project at McKinsey, this very serious partner, who had a PhD in Physics, looked at me and said, “So, Joe, what are your main hypotheses.” I looked back at him, perplexed, and said, “Ummm, my what?” I was used to people simply asking, “what are your best ideas, opinions, thoughts, etc.” Over time, I began to understand the importance of hypotheses and how it plays an important role in McKinsey’s problem solving of separating ideas and opinions from facts.

What is a Hypothesis?

“Hypothesis” is probably one of the top 5 words used by McKinsey consultants. And, being hypothesis-driven was required to have any success at McKinsey. A hypothesis is an idea or theory, often based on limited data, which is typically the beginning of a thread of further investigation to prove, disprove or improve the hypothesis through facts and empirical data.

The first step in being hypothesis-driven is to focus on the highest potential ideas and theories of how to solve a problem or realize an opportunity.

Let’s go over an example of being hypothesis-driven.

Let’s say you own a website, and you brainstorm ten ideas to improve web traffic, but you don’t have the budget to execute all ten ideas. The first step in being hypothesis-driven is to prioritize the ten ideas based on how much impact you hypothesize they will create.

The second step in being hypothesis-driven is to apply the scientific method to your hypotheses by creating the fact base to prove or disprove your hypothesis, which then allows you to turn your hypothesis into fact and knowledge. Running with our example, you could prove or disprove your hypothesis on the ideas you think will drive the most impact by executing:

1. An analysis of previous research and the performance of the different ideas 2. A survey where customers rank order the ideas 3. An actual test of the ten ideas to create a fact base on click-through rates and cost

While there are many other ways to validate the hypothesis on your prioritization , I find most people do not take this critical step in validating a hypothesis. Instead, they apply bad logic to many important decisions . An idea pops into their head, and then somehow it just becomes a fact.

One of my favorite lousy logic moments was a CEO who stated,

“I’ve never heard our customers talk about price, so the price doesn’t matter with our products , and I’ve decided we’re going to raise prices.”

Luckily, his management team was able to do a survey to dig deeper into the hypothesis that customers weren’t price-sensitive. Well, of course, they were and through the survey, they built a fantastic fact base that proved and disproved many other important hypotheses.

Why is being hypothesis-driven so important?

Imagine if medicine never actually used the scientific method. We would probably still be living in a world of lobotomies and bleeding people. Many organizations are still stuck in the dark ages, having built a house of cards on opinions disguised as facts, because they don’t prove or disprove their hypotheses. Decisions made on top of decisions, made on top of opinions, steer organizations clear of reality and the facts necessary to objectively evolve their strategic understanding and knowledge. I’ve seen too many leadership teams led solely by gut and opinion. The problem with intuition and gut is if you don’t ever prove or disprove if your gut is right or wrong, you’re never going to improve your intuition. There is a reason why being hypothesis-driven is the cornerstone of problem solving at McKinsey and every other top strategy consulting firm.

How do you become hypothesis-driven?

Most people are idea-driven, and constantly have hypotheses on how the world works and what they or their organization should do to improve. Though, there is often a fatal flaw in that many people turn their hypotheses into false facts, without actually finding or creating the facts to prove or disprove their hypotheses. These people aren’t hypothesis-driven; they are gut-driven.

The conversation typically goes something like “doing this discount promotion will increase our profits” or “our customers need to have this feature” or “morale is in the toilet because we don’t pay well, so we need to increase pay.” These should all be hypotheses that need the appropriate fact base, but instead, they become false facts, often leading to unintended results and consequences. In each of these cases, to become hypothesis-driven necessitates a different framing.

• Instead of “doing this discount promotion will increase our profits,” a hypothesis-driven approach is to ask “what are the best marketing ideas to increase our profits?” and then conduct a marketing experiment to see which ideas increase profits the most.

• Instead of “our customers need to have this feature,” ask the question, “what features would our customers value most?” And, then conduct a simple survey having customers rank order the features based on value to them.

• Instead of “morale is in the toilet because we don’t pay well, so we need to increase pay,” conduct a survey asking, “what is the level of morale?” what are potential issues affecting morale?” and what are the best ideas to improve morale?”

Beyond, watching out for just following your gut, here are some of the other best practices in being hypothesis-driven:

Listen to Your Intuition

Your mind has taken the collision of your experiences and everything you’ve learned over the years to create your intuition, which are those ideas that pop into your head and those hunches that come from your gut. Your intuition is your wellspring of hypotheses. So listen to your intuition, build hypotheses from it, and then prove or disprove those hypotheses, which will, in turn, improve your intuition. Intuition without feedback will over time typically evolve into poor intuition, which leads to poor judgment, thinking, and decisions.

Constantly Be Curious

I’m always curious about cause and effect. At Sports Authority, I had a hypothesis that customers that received service and assistance as they shopped, were worth more than customers who didn’t receive assistance from an associate. We figured out how to prove or disprove this hypothesis by tying surveys to transactional data of customers, and we found the hypothesis was true, which led us to a broad initiative around improving service. The key is you have to be always curious about what you think does or will drive value, create hypotheses and then prove or disprove those hypotheses.

Validate Hypotheses

You need to validate and prove or disprove hypotheses. Don’t just chalk up an idea as fact. In most cases, you’re going to have to create a fact base utilizing logic, observation, testing (see the section on Experimentation ), surveys, and analysis.

Be a Learning Organization

The foundation of learning organizations is the testing of and learning from hypotheses. I remember my first strategy internship at Mercer Management Consulting when I spent a good part of the summer combing through the results, findings, and insights of thousands of experiments that a banking client had conducted. It was fascinating to see the vastness and depth of their collective knowledge base. And, in today’s world of knowledge portals, it is so easy to disseminate, learn from, and build upon the knowledge created by companies.

NEXT SECTION: DISAGGREGATION

DOWNLOAD STRATEGY PRESENTATION TEMPLATES

THE $150 VALUE PACK - 600 SLIDES 168-PAGE COMPENDIUM OF STRATEGY FRAMEWORKS & TEMPLATES 186-PAGE HR & ORG STRATEGY PRESENTATION 100-PAGE SALES PLAN PRESENTATION 121-PAGE STRATEGIC PLAN & COMPANY OVERVIEW PRESENTATION 114-PAGE MARKET & COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS PRESENTATION 18-PAGE BUSINESS MODEL TEMPLATE

JOE NEWSUM COACHING

EXECUTIVE COACHING STRATEGY COACHING ELEVATE360 BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION STRATEGY WORKSHOPS LEADERSHIP STRATEGY SURVEY & WORKSHOP STRATEGY & LEADERSHIP TRAINING

THE LEADERSHIP MATURITY MODEL

Explore other types of strategy.

BIG PICTURE WHAT IS STRATEGY? BUSINESS MODEL COMP. ADVANTAGE GROWTH

TARGETS MARKET CUSTOMER GEOGRAPHIC

VALUE PROPOSITION PRODUCT SERVICE PRICING

GO TO MARKET DISTRIBUTION SALES MARKETING

ORGANIZATIONAL ORG DESIGN HR & CULTURE PROCESS PARTNER

EXPLORE THE TOP 100 STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP COMPETENCIES

TYPES OF VALUE MARKET ANALYSIS PROBLEM SOLVING

OPTION CREATION ANALYTICS DECISION MAKING PROCESS TOOLS

PLANNING & PROJECTS PEOPLE LEADERSHIP PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT

• Privacy Policy

Home » What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

What is a Hypothesis – Types, Examples and Writing Guide

Table of Contents

Definition:

Hypothesis is an educated guess or proposed explanation for a phenomenon, based on some initial observations or data. It is a tentative statement that can be tested and potentially proven or disproven through further investigation and experimentation.

Hypothesis is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments and the collection and analysis of data. It is an essential element of the scientific method, as it allows researchers to make predictions about the outcome of their experiments and to test those predictions to determine their accuracy.

Types of Hypothesis

Types of Hypothesis are as follows:

Research Hypothesis

A research hypothesis is a statement that predicts a relationship between variables. It is usually formulated as a specific statement that can be tested through research, and it is often used in scientific research to guide the design of experiments.

Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is no significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as a starting point for testing the research hypothesis, and if the results of the study reject the null hypothesis, it suggests that there is a significant difference or relationship between variables.

Alternative Hypothesis

An alternative hypothesis is a statement that assumes there is a significant difference or relationship between variables. It is often used as an alternative to the null hypothesis and is tested against the null hypothesis to determine which statement is more accurate.

Directional Hypothesis

A directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the direction of the relationship between variables. For example, a researcher might predict that increasing the amount of exercise will result in a decrease in body weight.

Non-directional Hypothesis

A non-directional hypothesis is a statement that predicts the relationship between variables but does not specify the direction. For example, a researcher might predict that there is a relationship between the amount of exercise and body weight, but they do not specify whether increasing or decreasing exercise will affect body weight.

Statistical Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a statement that assumes a particular statistical model or distribution for the data. It is often used in statistical analysis to test the significance of a particular result.

Composite Hypothesis

A composite hypothesis is a statement that assumes more than one condition or outcome. It can be divided into several sub-hypotheses, each of which represents a different possible outcome.

Empirical Hypothesis

An empirical hypothesis is a statement that is based on observed phenomena or data. It is often used in scientific research to develop theories or models that explain the observed phenomena.

Simple Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis is a statement that assumes only one outcome or condition. It is often used in scientific research to test a single variable or factor.

Complex Hypothesis

A complex hypothesis is a statement that assumes multiple outcomes or conditions. It is often used in scientific research to test the effects of multiple variables or factors on a particular outcome.

Applications of Hypothesis

Hypotheses are used in various fields to guide research and make predictions about the outcomes of experiments or observations. Here are some examples of how hypotheses are applied in different fields:

• Science : In scientific research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain natural phenomena. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular variable on a natural system, such as the effects of climate change on an ecosystem.
• Medicine : In medical research, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of treatments and therapies for specific conditions. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new drug on a particular disease.
• Psychology : In psychology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of human behavior and cognition. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular stimulus on the brain or behavior.
• Sociology : In sociology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of social phenomena, such as the effects of social structures or institutions on human behavior. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of income inequality on crime rates.
• Business : In business research, hypotheses are used to test the validity of theories and models that explain business phenomena, such as consumer behavior or market trends. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a new marketing campaign on consumer buying behavior.
• Engineering : In engineering, hypotheses are used to test the effectiveness of new technologies or designs. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the efficiency of a new solar panel design.

How to write a Hypothesis

Here are the steps to follow when writing a hypothesis:

Identify the Research Question

The first step is to identify the research question that you want to answer through your study. This question should be clear, specific, and focused. It should be something that can be investigated empirically and that has some relevance or significance in the field.

Conduct a Literature Review

Before writing your hypothesis, it’s essential to conduct a thorough literature review to understand what is already known about the topic. This will help you to identify the research gap and formulate a hypothesis that builds on existing knowledge.

Determine the Variables

The next step is to identify the variables involved in the research question. A variable is any characteristic or factor that can vary or change. There are two types of variables: independent and dependent. The independent variable is the one that is manipulated or changed by the researcher, while the dependent variable is the one that is measured or observed as a result of the independent variable.

Formulate the Hypothesis

Based on the research question and the variables involved, you can now formulate your hypothesis. A hypothesis should be a clear and concise statement that predicts the relationship between the variables. It should be testable through empirical research and based on existing theory or evidence.

Write the Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis is the opposite of the alternative hypothesis, which is the hypothesis that you are testing. The null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference or relationship between the variables. It is important to write the null hypothesis because it allows you to compare your results with what would be expected by chance.

Refine the Hypothesis

After formulating the hypothesis, it’s important to refine it and make it more precise. This may involve clarifying the variables, specifying the direction of the relationship, or making the hypothesis more testable.

Examples of Hypothesis

Here are a few examples of hypotheses in different fields:

• Psychology : “Increased exposure to violent video games leads to increased aggressive behavior in adolescents.”
• Biology : “Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to increased plant growth.”
• Sociology : “Individuals who grow up in households with higher socioeconomic status will have higher levels of education and income as adults.”
• Education : “Implementing a new teaching method will result in higher student achievement scores.”
• Marketing : “Customers who receive a personalized email will be more likely to make a purchase than those who receive a generic email.”
• Physics : “An increase in temperature will cause an increase in the volume of a gas, assuming all other variables remain constant.”
• Medicine : “Consuming a diet high in saturated fats will increase the risk of developing heart disease.”

Purpose of Hypothesis

The purpose of a hypothesis is to provide a testable explanation for an observed phenomenon or a prediction of a future outcome based on existing knowledge or theories. A hypothesis is an essential part of the scientific method and helps to guide the research process by providing a clear focus for investigation. It enables scientists to design experiments or studies to gather evidence and data that can support or refute the proposed explanation or prediction.

The formulation of a hypothesis is based on existing knowledge, observations, and theories, and it should be specific, testable, and falsifiable. A specific hypothesis helps to define the research question, which is important in the research process as it guides the selection of an appropriate research design and methodology. Testability of the hypothesis means that it can be proven or disproven through empirical data collection and analysis. Falsifiability means that the hypothesis should be formulated in such a way that it can be proven wrong if it is incorrect.

In addition to guiding the research process, the testing of hypotheses can lead to new discoveries and advancements in scientific knowledge. When a hypothesis is supported by the data, it can be used to develop new theories or models to explain the observed phenomenon. When a hypothesis is not supported by the data, it can help to refine existing theories or prompt the development of new hypotheses to explain the phenomenon.

When to use Hypothesis

Here are some common situations in which hypotheses are used:

• In scientific research , hypotheses are used to guide the design of experiments and to help researchers make predictions about the outcomes of those experiments.
• In social science research , hypotheses are used to test theories about human behavior, social relationships, and other phenomena.
• I n business , hypotheses can be used to guide decisions about marketing, product development, and other areas. For example, a hypothesis might be that a new product will sell well in a particular market, and this hypothesis can be tested through market research.

Characteristics of Hypothesis

Here are some common characteristics of a hypothesis:

• Testable : A hypothesis must be able to be tested through observation or experimentation. This means that it must be possible to collect data that will either support or refute the hypothesis.
• Falsifiable : A hypothesis must be able to be proven false if it is not supported by the data. If a hypothesis cannot be falsified, then it is not a scientific hypothesis.
• Clear and concise : A hypothesis should be stated in a clear and concise manner so that it can be easily understood and tested.
• Based on existing knowledge : A hypothesis should be based on existing knowledge and research in the field. It should not be based on personal beliefs or opinions.
• Specific : A hypothesis should be specific in terms of the variables being tested and the predicted outcome. This will help to ensure that the research is focused and well-designed.
• Tentative: A hypothesis is a tentative statement or assumption that requires further testing and evidence to be confirmed or refuted. It is not a final conclusion or assertion.
• Relevant : A hypothesis should be relevant to the research question or problem being studied. It should address a gap in knowledge or provide a new perspective on the issue.

Advantages of Hypothesis

Hypotheses have several advantages in scientific research and experimentation:

• Guides research: A hypothesis provides a clear and specific direction for research. It helps to focus the research question, select appropriate methods and variables, and interpret the results.
• Predictive powe r: A hypothesis makes predictions about the outcome of research, which can be tested through experimentation. This allows researchers to evaluate the validity of the hypothesis and make new discoveries.
• Facilitates communication: A hypothesis provides a common language and framework for scientists to communicate with one another about their research. This helps to facilitate the exchange of ideas and promotes collaboration.
• Efficient use of resources: A hypothesis helps researchers to use their time, resources, and funding efficiently by directing them towards specific research questions and methods that are most likely to yield results.
• Provides a basis for further research: A hypothesis that is supported by data provides a basis for further research and exploration. It can lead to new hypotheses, theories, and discoveries.
• Increases objectivity: A hypothesis can help to increase objectivity in research by providing a clear and specific framework for testing and interpreting results. This can reduce bias and increase the reliability of research findings.

Limitations of Hypothesis

Some Limitations of the Hypothesis are as follows:

• Limited to observable phenomena: Hypotheses are limited to observable phenomena and cannot account for unobservable or intangible factors. This means that some research questions may not be amenable to hypothesis testing.
• May be inaccurate or incomplete: Hypotheses are based on existing knowledge and research, which may be incomplete or inaccurate. This can lead to flawed hypotheses and erroneous conclusions.
• May be biased: Hypotheses may be biased by the researcher’s own beliefs, values, or assumptions. This can lead to selective interpretation of data and a lack of objectivity in research.
• Cannot prove causation: A hypothesis can only show a correlation between variables, but it cannot prove causation. This requires further experimentation and analysis.
• Limited to specific contexts: Hypotheses are limited to specific contexts and may not be generalizable to other situations or populations. This means that results may not be applicable in other contexts or may require further testing.
• May be affected by chance : Hypotheses may be affected by chance or random variation, which can obscure or distort the true relationship between variables.

About the author

Muhammad Hassan

Researcher, Academic Writer, Web developer

You may also like

Research Report – Example, Writing Guide and...

Informed Consent in Research – Types, Templates...

APA Table of Contents – Format and Example

Problem Statement – Writing Guide, Examples and...

Research Findings – Types Examples and Writing...

Dissertation Methodology – Structure, Example...

How Does Statistical Hypothesis Testing Work?

These terms are not only commonly used in statistics but also have made their way into the vernacular. Making sense of most scientific publications, which can have practical, significant effects on public policy and your life, means understanding a core framework with which we derive much knowledge. That framework is called hypothesis testing , or more formally, Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST).

When comparing two measurements, whether they be completion rates, ease scores, or even the effectiveness of different vaccines, a hypothesis test’s primary goal is to make a binary classification decision: is the difference statistically significant or not? Yes or no.

The yes or no output from a hypothesis test looks simple, indistinguishable from a guess or a coin flip. It’s the process of getting to yes or no that’s different in NHST.

While we certainly want to make the right decision, we can never be correct 100% of the time. There will always be mistakes; there will always be errors. It’s through the framework of hypothesis testing that we can control the frequency of errors over time.

Hypothesis testing can be a confusing concept, so we’ve broken it into steps with examples. In a follow-up article, we’ll discuss how things can go wrong in hypothesis testing and some criticisms of the framework.

Step 1: Define the Null Hypothesis

Statistical hypothesis testing starts with something called the Null Hypothesis. Null means none or no difference. A few ways to think of the Null Hypothesis are as the no-difference hypothesis or as the hypothesis that we want to nullify (disprove).

Mathematicians love using symbols, and that applies to hypothesis testing. The Null Hypothesis is represented as H 0 . H stands for hypothesis, and the 0—that’s a zero in the subscript, not the letter O—reminds us it’s the hypothesis of 0 (no, null) difference.

We start with the Null Hypothesis because it’s easier to disprove something than to prove something. If we disprove the Null Hypothesis (reject the null), then we know there’s at least some relationship between the variables we’re measuring (e.g., different websites and ease scores).

Here are four examples of Null Hypotheses (H 0 ) from studies we’ll refer to throughout this article.

• Rental Cars Ease : There’s no difference in System Usability Scale ( SUS ) scores between two rental car websites.
• Flight Booking Friction : There’s no difference in perceived ease ratings ( SEQ ) when booking a flight on two airline websites.
• CRM Ease : There’s no difference in System Usability Scale (SUS) scores between two Customer Relationship Management (CRM) apps.
• Numbers and Emojis : There’s no difference in mean ratings on the UMUX-Lite when using numbers and face emojis as response options in its agreement scales.

Step 2: Collect Data and Compute the Difference

You need data to make decisions. Use methods such as surveys, experiments, and observations to collect data, and then calculate the differences observed. Data can be collected using either a between-subjects (different people in each condition) or within-subjects (same people in both) approach .

Building on the examples from Step 1,

• Rental Cars Ease : 14 users attempted five tasks on two rental car websites. The average SUS scores were 80.4 (sd = 11) for rental website A and 63.5 (sd = 15) for rental website B. The observed difference was 16.9 points (the SUS can range from 0 to 100).
• Flight Booking Friction : 10 users booked a flight on airline site A and 13 on airline site B. The average SEQ score for Airline A was 6.1 (sd = .83) and for Airline B, it was 5.1 (sd = 1.5). The observed difference was 1 point (the SEQ can range from 1 to 7).
• CRM Ease : 11 users attempted tasks on Product A, and 12 users attempted the same tasks on Product B. Product A had a mean SUS score of 51.6 (sd = 4.07) and Product B had a mean SUS score of 49.6 (sd = 4.63). The observed difference was 2 points.
• Numbers and Emojis : 240 respondents used two versions of the UMUX-Lite, one with a standard numeric format and the other using face emojis in place of numbers . The mean UMUX-Lite rating with the numeric format was 85.9 (sd = 17.5), and for the face emojis version, the score was 85.4 (sd = 17.1). That’s a difference of .5 points on a 0-100–point scale.

Table 1 summarizes the four examples (metrics and observed differences).

Table 1: Descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, and sample size) and differences for the four examples.

Step 3: Compute the p-value

With these differences computed, we want to know how likely it is they could have happened by chance. To do so, we use the probability value—the p-value.

Books are written on the p-value. Statisticians love to argue over its technical definition (similar to how UX practitioners and researchers argue over the definition of UX). In short, p-value is the probability of getting the differences we found in Step 2 if there really are no differences .

This often gets simplified as the probability that the difference is due to chance. Technically, that’s not quite correct , but it’s conceptually close enough for practical purposes (just watch whom you say it to).

We explain how to compute the p-value by hand for many common statistical tests in Chapter 5 of Quantifying the User Experience . But you’ll usually use statistical software such as SPSS or R to compute the p-value. (p-values are computed automatically in our MUIQ platform , as shown in Figure 1.)

Figure 1: MUIQ output that compares the Net Promoter Scores for six auto insurance websites ; the statistical analysis table shows the p-values for all the possible comparisons, with green highlights for p < .05 and yellow highlights for .05 < p < .10.

• Rental Cars Ease : Used a paired t-test to assess the difference of 16.9 points (t(13) = 3.48; p = .004).
• Flight Booking Friction: The observed SEQ difference was 1 point, assessed with an independent groups t-test (t(20) = 2.1; p = .0499).
• CRM Ease: An independent groups t-test on the difference of 2 points found t(20) = 1.1; p = .28.
• Numbers and Emojis : A dependent-groups t-test on the difference of .5 points found t(239 = .88; p = .38.

The lower the p-value, the less credible the Null Hypothesis is (or as is often interpreted, it’s less likely the difference is due to chance). But how low is low enough?

Step 4: Compare p-value to Alpha to Determine Statistical Significance

The p-value is compared to a criterion called the alpha error (α). If p is less than the criterion, then you can declare statistical significance (sort of like Michael Scott from The Office—Figure 2). When p is below alpha, we reject the Null Hypothesis.

Figure 2: Declaring statistical significance with a meme.

The most common criterion is .05 (the basis for saying that p < .05 indicates statistical significance). It doesn’t always have to be .05, but that’s what most scientific journals have adopted. We’ll cover how that threshold became the default in another article.

When something is statistically significant, it doesn’t mean it’s different. It just means we wouldn’t expect to see a difference that large if there really was no difference. Or if the null hypothesis is true, we would not expect to see the difference very often.

Let’s compare the p-values to the typical alpha criterion of .05 for our sample data to see whether there are any statistically significant differences:

• Rental Cars Ease : The 16.9 difference has a p-value of .004. We’d expect a difference this large or larger only about 4/1000 times if there is no difference. p is less than .05. Statistically significant.
• Flight Booking Friction : The observed difference of 1 point generated a p-value of .0499. We’d expect to see this difference just under 5% of the time if there was no difference. p is less than .05. Statistically significant.
• CRM Ease : The 2-point difference generated a p-value of .28. A difference this large or larger could happen 28% of the time if there is no difference. p is greater than .05. NOT significant.
• Numbers and Emojis : The .5-point UMUX-Lite difference generated a p-value of .38. If there is no difference, you’d expect to see a p-value this large 38% of the time. p is greater than .05. NOT significant.

Table 2 shows the four examples, the observed differences, resulting p-values, and conclusions.

Table 2: Observed differences, resulting p-values, and conclusions for the four examples.

The Path to Statistical Significance

We have visualized these steps in a flowchart (Figure 3).

When the difference is statistically significant (p < alpha) you reject the Null hypothesis (H 0 ). If p > alpha you can say something is not statistically significant, so you do not reject the Null Hypothesis. But, more importantly, you also do not accept it. There might be no difference, but it’s also possible that there is a real difference. The difference might be too small to detect with the given sample size and variability of measurement, making the outcome ambiguous. Strictly speaking, you fail to reject the Null Hypothesis (H 0 ). The language is subtle: the important point is you never accept the Null Hypothesis as true; you can only reject it (p < alpha) or fail to reject it (p > alpha).

In a future article, we’ll discuss other aspects of hypothesis testing, including the specification of an alternative hypothesis and how that expands the framework of NHST to define the two ways decisions can be right and the two ways they can be wrong.

Figure 3: High-level flowchart of statistical hypothesis testing.

When making decisions in research, business, or even medicine, we can’t be correct 100% of the time. There will always be mistakes; there will always be errors. Through the framework of hypothesis testing, we can measure and reduce the frequency of errors over time. To use hypothesis testing when making comparisons, follow these four steps:

• Define the Null Hypothesis. If we can rule out no difference, then we can conclude there’s at least some difference between the variables.
• Collect data and compute the difference. Just because you observe a difference doesn’t mean it’s greater than what you’d see from sampling error or random fluctuation.
• Compute the p-value. The probability value (p-value) is the probability of observing that difference or a larger one if there really is no difference.
• Compare the p-value to alpha to determine statistical significance. If the p-value is less than the alpha criterion (typically .05), we conclude the difference is statistically significant. Otherwise, we withhold final judgment and can only say we failed to reject the Null Hypothesis.

You might also be interested in

How to Develop a Good Research Hypothesis

The story of a research study begins by asking a question. Researchers all around the globe are asking curious questions and formulating research hypothesis. However, whether the research study provides an effective conclusion depends on how well one develops a good research hypothesis. Research hypothesis examples could help researchers get an idea as to how to write a good research hypothesis.

This blog will help you understand what is a research hypothesis, its characteristics and, how to formulate a research hypothesis

Table of Contents

What is Hypothesis?

Hypothesis is an assumption or an idea proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested. It is a precise, testable statement of what the researchers predict will be outcome of the study.  Hypothesis usually involves proposing a relationship between two variables: the independent variable (what the researchers change) and the dependent variable (what the research measures).

What is a Research Hypothesis?

Research hypothesis is a statement that introduces a research question and proposes an expected result. It is an integral part of the scientific method that forms the basis of scientific experiments. Therefore, you need to be careful and thorough when building your research hypothesis. A minor flaw in the construction of your hypothesis could have an adverse effect on your experiment. In research, there is a convention that the hypothesis is written in two forms, the null hypothesis, and the alternative hypothesis (called the experimental hypothesis when the method of investigation is an experiment).

Characteristics of a Good Research Hypothesis

As the hypothesis is specific, there is a testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study. You may consider drawing hypothesis from previously published research based on the theory.

A good research hypothesis involves more effort than just a guess. In particular, your hypothesis may begin with a question that could be further explored through background research.

To help you formulate a promising research hypothesis, you should ask yourself the following questions:

• Is the language clear and focused?
• What is the relationship between your hypothesis and your research topic?
• Is your hypothesis testable? If yes, then how?
• What are the possible explanations that you might want to explore?
• Does your hypothesis include both an independent and dependent variable?
• Can you manipulate your variables without hampering the ethical standards?
• Does your research predict the relationship and outcome?
• Is your research simple and concise (avoids wordiness)?
• Is it clear with no ambiguity or assumptions about the readers’ knowledge
• Is your research observable and testable results?
• Is it relevant and specific to the research question or problem?

The questions listed above can be used as a checklist to make sure your hypothesis is based on a solid foundation. Furthermore, it can help you identify weaknesses in your hypothesis and revise it if necessary.

Source: Educational Hub

How to formulate a research hypothesis.

A testable hypothesis is not a simple statement. It is rather an intricate statement that needs to offer a clear introduction to a scientific experiment, its intentions, and the possible outcomes. However, there are some important things to consider when building a compelling hypothesis.

1. State the problem that you are trying to solve.

Make sure that the hypothesis clearly defines the topic and the focus of the experiment.

2. Try to write the hypothesis as an if-then statement.

Follow this template: If a specific action is taken, then a certain outcome is expected.

3. Define the variables

Independent variables are the ones that are manipulated, controlled, or changed. Independent variables are isolated from other factors of the study.

Dependent variables , as the name suggests are dependent on other factors of the study. They are influenced by the change in independent variable.

4. Scrutinize the hypothesis

Evaluate assumptions, predictions, and evidence rigorously to refine your understanding.

Types of Research Hypothesis

The types of research hypothesis are stated below:

1. Simple Hypothesis

It predicts the relationship between a single dependent variable and a single independent variable.

2. Complex Hypothesis

It predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables.

3. Directional Hypothesis

It specifies the expected direction to be followed to determine the relationship between variables and is derived from theory. Furthermore, it implies the researcher’s intellectual commitment to a particular outcome.

4. Non-directional Hypothesis

It does not predict the exact direction or nature of the relationship between the two variables. The non-directional hypothesis is used when there is no theory involved or when findings contradict previous research.

5. Associative and Causal Hypothesis

The associative hypothesis defines interdependency between variables. A change in one variable results in the change of the other variable. On the other hand, the causal hypothesis proposes an effect on the dependent due to manipulation of the independent variable.

6. Null Hypothesis

Null hypothesis states a negative statement to support the researcher’s findings that there is no relationship between two variables. There will be no changes in the dependent variable due the manipulation of the independent variable. Furthermore, it states results are due to chance and are not significant in terms of supporting the idea being investigated.

7. Alternative Hypothesis

It states that there is a relationship between the two variables of the study and that the results are significant to the research topic. An experimental hypothesis predicts what changes will take place in the dependent variable when the independent variable is manipulated. Also, it states that the results are not due to chance and that they are significant in terms of supporting the theory being investigated.

Research Hypothesis Examples of Independent and Dependent Variables

Research Hypothesis Example 1 The greater number of coal plants in a region (independent variable) increases water pollution (dependent variable). If you change the independent variable (building more coal factories), it will change the dependent variable (amount of water pollution).

Research Hypothesis Example 2 What is the effect of diet or regular soda (independent variable) on blood sugar levels (dependent variable)? If you change the independent variable (the type of soda you consume), it will change the dependent variable (blood sugar levels)

You should not ignore the importance of the above steps. The validity of your experiment and its results rely on a robust testable hypothesis. Developing a strong testable hypothesis has few advantages, it compels us to think intensely and specifically about the outcomes of a study. Consequently, it enables us to understand the implication of the question and the different variables involved in the study. Furthermore, it helps us to make precise predictions based on prior research. Hence, forming a hypothesis would be of great value to the research. Here are some good examples of testable hypotheses.

More importantly, you need to build a robust testable research hypothesis for your scientific experiments. A testable hypothesis is a hypothesis that can be proved or disproved as a result of experimentation.

Importance of a Testable Hypothesis

To devise and perform an experiment using scientific method, you need to make sure that your hypothesis is testable. To be considered testable, some essential criteria must be met:

• There must be a possibility to prove that the hypothesis is true.
• There must be a possibility to prove that the hypothesis is false.
• The results of the hypothesis must be reproducible.

Without these criteria, the hypothesis and the results will be vague. As a result, the experiment will not prove or disprove anything significant.

What are your experiences with building hypotheses for scientific experiments? What challenges did you face? How did you overcome these challenges? Please share your thoughts with us in the comments section.

Frequently Asked Questions

The steps to write a research hypothesis are: 1. Stating the problem: Ensure that the hypothesis defines the research problem 2. Writing a hypothesis as an 'if-then' statement: Include the action and the expected outcome of your study by following a ‘if-then’ structure. 3. Defining the variables: Define the variables as Dependent or Independent based on their dependency to other factors. 4. Scrutinizing the hypothesis: Identify the type of your hypothesis

Hypothesis testing is a statistical tool which is used to make inferences about a population data to draw conclusions for a particular hypothesis.

Hypothesis in statistics is a formal statement about the nature of a population within a structured framework of a statistical model. It is used to test an existing hypothesis by studying a population.

Research hypothesis is a statement that introduces a research question and proposes an expected result. It forms the basis of scientific experiments.

The different types of hypothesis in research are: • Null hypothesis: Null hypothesis is a negative statement to support the researcher’s findings that there is no relationship between two variables. • Alternate hypothesis: Alternate hypothesis predicts the relationship between the two variables of the study. • Directional hypothesis: Directional hypothesis specifies the expected direction to be followed to determine the relationship between variables. • Non-directional hypothesis: Non-directional hypothesis does not predict the exact direction or nature of the relationship between the two variables. • Simple hypothesis: Simple hypothesis predicts the relationship between a single dependent variable and a single independent variable. • Complex hypothesis: Complex hypothesis predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables. • Associative and casual hypothesis: Associative and casual hypothesis predicts the relationship between two or more independent and dependent variables. • Empirical hypothesis: Empirical hypothesis can be tested via experiments and observation. • Statistical hypothesis: A statistical hypothesis utilizes statistical models to draw conclusions about broader populations.

Wow! You really simplified your explanation that even dummies would find it easy to comprehend. Thank you so much.

Thanks a lot for your valuable guidance.

I enjoy reading the post. Hypotheses are actually an intrinsic part in a study. It bridges the research question and the methodology of the study.

Useful piece!

This is awesome.Wow.

It very interesting to read the topic, can you guide me any specific example of hypothesis process establish throw the Demand and supply of the specific product in market

Nicely explained

It is really a useful for me Kindly give some examples of hypothesis

It was a well explained content ,can you please give me an example with the null and alternative hypothesis illustrated

clear and concise. thanks.

So Good so Amazing

Good to learn

Thanks a lot for explaining to my level of understanding

Explained well and in simple terms. Quick read! Thank you

It awesome. It has really positioned me in my research project

Rate this article Cancel Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Enago Academy's Most Popular Articles

• Reporting Research

Choosing the Right Analytical Approach: Thematic analysis vs. content analysis for data interpretation

In research, choosing the right approach to understand data is crucial for deriving meaningful insights.…

Comparing Cross Sectional and Longitudinal Studies: 5 steps for choosing the right approach

The process of choosing the right research design can put ourselves at the crossroads of…

• Industry News

COPE Forum Discussion Highlights Challenges and Urges Clarity in Institutional Authorship Standards

The COPE forum discussion held in December 2023 initiated with a fundamental question — is…

• Career Corner

Unlocking the Power of Networking in Academic Conferences

Embarking on your first academic conference experience? Fear not, we got you covered! Academic conferences…

Research Recommendations – Guiding policy-makers for evidence-based decision making

Research recommendations play a crucial role in guiding scholars and researchers toward fruitful avenues of…

Choosing the Right Analytical Approach: Thematic analysis vs. content analysis for…

Comparing Cross Sectional and Longitudinal Studies: 5 steps for choosing the right…

How to Design Effective Research Questionnaires for Robust Findings

Sign-up to read more

Subscribe for free to get unrestricted access to all our resources on research writing and academic publishing including:

• 2000+ blog articles
• 50+ Webinars
• 10+ Expert podcasts
• 50+ Infographics
• 10+ Checklists
• Research Guides

We hate spam too. We promise to protect your privacy and never spam you.

I am looking for Editing/ Proofreading services for my manuscript Tentative date of next journal submission:

As a researcher, what do you consider most when choosing an image manipulation detector?

The Change Hypothesis: A Simple Template for Leaders

• Website for Mark Wavle
• Contact Mark Wavle
• Twitter for Mark Wavle
• LinkedIn for Mark Wavle

Change. It's a word that can evoke excitement or trepidation. As a leader, navigating change requires a delicate balance. Whether you’re a Scrum Master, Product Owner, Developer, or manager, you need to be passionate about the improvements you seek, but also adaptable to new information and perspectives.

The Change Hypothesis can be your secret weapon!

Creating a testable hypothesis using this simple template helps you analyze the change, articulate it clearly, and guide those you’re leading toward the desired outcome:

   We believe that, by [ (3) taking these actions ],    we will [(2) achieve this desired future state ]    and avoid [(1) the current status quo pain points ].    We'll observe if that's happening by [(4) reviewing these measures ].

Here's a roadmap to guide you through leading successful change:

(1) Current Status Quo Pain Points

Change, by its very nature, disrupts the status quo. We are creatures of habit, and venturing outside our comfort zones can be unsettling. Ignoring this discomfort is a recipe for resistance.

Instead, acknowledge the pain points of the current situation. 

Use storytelling to illustrate the negative consequences of inaction. Maybe a particular process is leading to customer frustration, or inefficiencies are hindering productivity. Quantify the impact with data to make the urgency undeniable.

(2) Desired Future State

Once you've established the "why" behind the change, it's time to share the "where." Craft a clear and inspiring vision of the future state. What will things look like after the change is implemented? How will it benefit the organization and those involved?

Storytelling is powerful here too. Vividly describe the improvements people can expect. Don't just tell them what will change, show them. But remember, vision alone isn't enough. Supplement your narrative with data-driven metrics that will track progress and demonstrate the change's success.

(3) Taking Action

People crave a clear path forward, so answer the question, “What’s my role in this?”

Your challenge is to present options that are specific enough for people to understand and act on, while also being open enough that they can have ownership of their part of the change. Try giving some specific example actions, coupled with a few parameters that give boundaries around the broader types of behaviors that will support the change. This fosters a sense of ownership and builds momentum as initial wins are achieved.

(4) Reviewing Measures

Not all metrics are created equal. When selecting metrics to track the progress of your change initiative, resist the urge to focus on activity alone. Did people attend the training session? While important, this doesn't necessarily tell you if they're applying the new skills.

Instead, focus on outcome-based metrics. Look for quantifiable measures that reflect the impact of the change.  For example, if your goal is to improve customer satisfaction, track changes in customer satisfaction scores after the change is implemented.

By identifying the outcome-based metrics, everyone gains valuable insights into the effectiveness of the change efforts. This encourages course-correction and discussion that ultimately lead to achieving the desired outcomes.

Embrace the Hypothesis

Think of change as an experiment. Since change involving human behavior is complex, we cannot be certain about the connection between actions and outcomes. The humility and curiosity of a hypothesis help us lead boldly in uncertainty.

The beauty of the Change Hypothesis lies in its adaptability. As you gather feedback and encounter challenges, revisit your hypothesis. Based on what you learn, refine your actions or adjust your vision. This iterative approach keeps the change process moving forward, even when the path isn't always linear.

Leading change isn't about brute force. It's about fostering a shared vision, providing a clear path forward, and being flexible as you navigate the journey together. By following this simple template, you can increase your chances of guiding your team through change and achieving lasting success.

And this is how you can get your change unstuck.

For more,  subscribe to the Unstuck Agile newsletter !

What did you think about this post?

Share with your network.

• Share this page via email
• Share this page on Facebook
• Share this page on Twitter
• Share this page on LinkedIn

View the discussion thread.

How Do You Formulate (Important) Hypotheses?

• Open Access
• First Online: 03 December 2022

Cite this chapter

You have full access to this open access chapter

• James Hiebert 6 ,
• Jinfa Cai 7 ,
• Stephen Hwang 7 ,
• Anne K Morris 6 &
• Charles Hohensee 6  

Part of the book series: Research in Mathematics Education ((RME))

11k Accesses

Building on the ideas in Chap. 1, we describe formulating, testing, and revising hypotheses as a continuing cycle of clarifying what you want to study, making predictions about what you might find together with developing your reasons for these predictions, imagining tests of these predictions, revising your predictions and rationales, and so on. Many resources feed this process, including reading what others have found about similar phenomena, talking with colleagues, conducting pilot studies, and writing drafts as you revise your thinking. Although you might think you cannot predict what you will find, it is always possible—with enough reading and conversations and pilot studies—to make some good guesses. And, once you guess what you will find and write out the reasons for these guesses you are on your way to scientific inquiry. As you refine your hypotheses, you can assess their research importance by asking how connected they are to problems your research community really wants to solve.

You have full access to this open access chapter,  Download chapter PDF

Part I. Getting Started

We want to begin by addressing a question you might have had as you read the title of this chapter. You are likely to hear, or read in other sources, that the research process begins by asking research questions . For reasons we gave in Chap. 1 , and more we will describe in this and later chapters, we emphasize formulating, testing, and revising hypotheses. However, it is important to know that asking and answering research questions involve many of the same activities, so we are not describing a completely different process.

We acknowledge that many researchers do not actually begin by formulating hypotheses. In other words, researchers rarely get a researchable idea by writing out a well-formulated hypothesis. Instead, their initial ideas for what they study come from a variety of sources. Then, after they have the idea for a study, they do lots of background reading and thinking and talking before they are ready to formulate a hypothesis. So, for readers who are at the very beginning and do not yet have an idea for a study, let’s back up. Where do research ideas come from?

There are no formulas or algorithms that spawn a researchable idea. But as you begin the process, you can ask yourself some questions. Your answers to these questions can help you move forward.

What are you curious about? What are you passionate about? What have you wondered about as an educator? These are questions that look inward, questions about yourself.

What do you think are the most pressing educational problems? Which problems are you in the best position to address? What change(s) do you think would help all students learn more productively? These are questions that look outward, questions about phenomena you have observed.

What are the main areas of research in the field? What are the big questions that are being asked? These are questions about the general landscape of the field.

What have you read about in the research literature that caught your attention? What have you read that prompted you to think about extending the profession’s knowledge about this? What have you read that made you ask, “I wonder why this is true?” These are questions about how you can build on what is known in the field.

What are some research questions or testable hypotheses that have been identified by other researchers for future research? This, too, is a question about how you can build on what is known in the field. Taking up such questions or hypotheses can help by providing some existing scaffolding that others have constructed.

What research is being done by your immediate colleagues or your advisor that is of interest to you? These are questions about topics for which you will likely receive local support.

Exercise 2.1

Brainstorm some answers for each set of questions. Record them. Then step back and look at the places of intersection. Did you have similar answers across several questions? Write out, as clearly as you can, the topic that captures your primary interest, at least at this point. We will give you a chance to update your responses as you study this book.

Part II. Paths from a General Interest to an Informed Hypothesis

There are many different paths you might take from conceiving an idea for a study, maybe even a vague idea, to formulating a prediction that leads to an informed hypothesis that can be tested. We will explore some of the paths we recommend.

We will assume you have completed Exercise 2.1 in Part I and have some written answers to the six questions that preceded it as well as a statement that describes your topic of interest. This very first statement could take several different forms: a description of a problem you want to study, a question you want to address, or a hypothesis you want to test. We recommend that you begin with one of these three forms, the one that makes most sense to you. There is an advantage to using all three and flexibly choosing the one that is most meaningful at the time and for a particular study. You can then move from one to the other as you think more about your research study and you develop your initial idea. To get a sense of how the process might unfold, consider the following alternative paths.

Beginning with a Prediction If You Have One

Sometimes, when you notice an educational problem or have a question about an educational situation or phenomenon, you quickly have an idea that might help solve the problem or answer the question. Here are three examples.

You are a teacher, and you noticed a problem with the way the textbook presented two related concepts in two consecutive lessons. Almost as soon as you noticed the problem, it occurred to you that the two lessons could be taught more effectively in the reverse order. You predicted better outcomes if the order was reversed, and you even had a preliminary rationale for why this would be true.

You are a graduate student and you read that students often misunderstand a particular aspect of graphing linear functions. You predicted that, by listening to small groups of students working together, you could hear new details that would help you understand this misconception.

You are a curriculum supervisor and you observed sixth-grade classrooms where students were learning about decimal fractions. After talking with several experienced teachers, you predicted that beginning with percentages might be a good way to introduce students to decimal fractions.

We begin with the path of making predictions because we see the other two paths as leading into this one at some point in the process (see Fig. 2.1 ). Starting with this path does not mean you did not sense a problem you wanted to solve or a question you wanted to answer.

Three Pathways to Formulating Informed Hypotheses

Notice that your predictions can come from a variety of sources—your own experience, reading, and talking with colleagues. Most likely, as you write out your predictions you also think about the educational problem for which your prediction is a potential solution. Writing a clear description of the problem will be useful as you proceed. Notice also that it is easy to change each of your predictions into a question. When you formulate a prediction, you are actually answering a question, even though the question might be implicit. Making that implicit question explicit can generate a first draft of the research question that accompanies your prediction. For example, suppose you are the curriculum supervisor who predicts that teaching percentages first would be a good way to introduce decimal fractions. In an obvious shift in form, you could ask, “In what ways would teaching percentages benefit students’ initial learning of decimal fractions?”

There are advantages to starting with the prediction form if you can make an educated guess about what you will find. Making a prediction forces you to think now about several things you will need to think about at some point anyway. It is better to think about them earlier rather than later. If you state your prediction clearly and explicitly, you can begin to ask yourself three questions about your prediction: Why do I expect to observe what I am predicting? Why did I make that prediction? (These two questions essentially ask what your rationale is for your prediction.) And, how can I test to see if it’s right? This is where the benefits of making predictions begin.

Asking yourself why you predicted what you did, and then asking yourself why you answered the first “why” question as you did, can be a powerful chain of thought that lays the groundwork for an increasingly accurate prediction and an increasingly well-reasoned rationale. For example, suppose you are the curriculum supervisor above who predicted that beginning by teaching percentages would be a good way to introduce students to decimal fractions. Why did you make this prediction? Maybe because students are familiar with percentages in everyday life so they could use what they know to anchor their thinking about hundredths. Why would that be helpful? Because if students could connect hundredths in percentage form with hundredths in decimal fraction form, they could bring their meaning of percentages into decimal fractions. But how would that help? If students understood that a decimal fraction like 0.35 meant 35 of 100, then they could use their understanding of hundredths to explore the meaning of tenths, thousandths, and so on. Why would that be useful? By continuing to ask yourself why you gave the previous answer, you can begin building your rationale and, as you build your rationale, you will find yourself revisiting your prediction, often making it more precise and explicit. If you were the curriculum supervisor and continued the reasoning in the previous sentences, you might elaborate your prediction by specifying the way in which percentages should be taught in order to have a positive effect on particular aspects of students’ understanding of decimal fractions.

Developing a Rationale for Your Predictions

Keeping your initial predictions in mind, you can read what others already know about the phenomenon. Your reading can now become targeted with a clear purpose.

By reading and talking with colleagues, you can develop more complete reasons for your predictions. It is likely that you will also decide to revise your predictions based on what you learn from your reading. As you develop sound reasons for your predictions, you are creating your rationales, and your predictions together with your rationales become your hypotheses. The more you learn about what is already known about your research topic, the more refined will be your predictions and the clearer and more complete your rationales. We will use the term more informed hypotheses to describe this evolution of your hypotheses.

Developing more informed hypotheses is a good thing because it means: (1) you understand the reasons for your predictions; (2) you will be able to imagine how you can test your hypotheses; (3) you can more easily convince your colleagues that they are important hypotheses—they are hypotheses worth testing; and (4) at the end of your study, you will be able to more easily interpret the results of your test and to revise your hypotheses to demonstrate what you have learned by conducting the study.

Imagining Testing Your Hypotheses

Because we have tied together predictions and rationales to constitute hypotheses, testing hypotheses means testing predictions and rationales. Testing predictions means comparing empirical observations, or findings, with the predictions. Testing rationales means using these comparisons to evaluate the adequacy or soundness of the rationales.

Imagining how you might test your hypotheses does not mean working out the details for exactly how you would test them. Rather, it means thinking ahead about how you could do this. Recall the descriptor of scientific inquiry: “experience carefully planned in advance” (Fisher, 1935). Asking whether predictions are testable and whether rationales can be evaluated is simply planning in advance.

You might read that testing hypotheses means simply assessing whether predictions are correct or incorrect. In our view, it is more useful to think of testing as a means of gathering enough information to compare your findings with your predictions, revise your rationales, and propose more accurate predictions. So, asking yourself whether hypotheses can be tested means asking whether information could be collected to assess the accuracy of your predictions and whether the information will show you how to revise your rationales to sharpen your predictions.

Cycles of Building Rationales and Planning to Test Your Predictions

Scientific reasoning is a dialogue between the possible and the actual, an interplay between hypotheses and the logical expectations they give rise to: there is a restless to-and-fro motion of thought, the formulation and rectification of hypotheses (Medawar, 1982 , p.72).

As you ask yourself about how you could test your predictions, you will inevitably revise your rationales and sharpen your predictions. Your hypotheses will become more informed, more targeted, and more explicit. They will make clearer to you and others what, exactly, you plan to study.

When will you know that your hypotheses are clear and precise enough? Because of the way we define hypotheses, this question asks about both rationales and predictions. If a rationale you are building lets you make a number of quite different predictions that are equally plausible rather than a single, primary prediction, then your hypothesis needs further refinement by building a more complete and precise rationale. Also, if you cannot briefly describe to your colleagues a believable way to test your prediction, then you need to phrase it more clearly and precisely.

Each time you strengthen your rationales, you might need to adjust your predictions. And, each time you clarify your predictions, you might need to adjust your rationales. The cycle of going back and forth to keep your predictions and rationales tightly aligned has many payoffs down the road. Every decision you make from this point on will be in the interests of providing a transparent and convincing test of your hypotheses and explaining how the results of your test dictate specific revisions to your hypotheses. As you make these decisions (described in the succeeding chapters), you will probably return to clarify your hypotheses even further. But, you will be in a much better position, at each point, if you begin with well-informed hypotheses.

Beginning by Asking Questions to Clarify Your Interests

Instead of starting with predictions, a second path you might take devotes more time at the beginning to asking questions as you zero in on what you want to study. Some researchers suggest you start this way (e.g., Gournelos et al., 2019 ). Specifically, with this second path, the first statement you write to express your research interest would be a question. For example, you might ask, “Why do ninth-grade students change the way they think about linear equations after studying quadratic equations?” or “How do first graders solve simple arithmetic problems before they have been taught to add and subtract?”

The first phrasing of your question might be quite general or vague. As you think about your question and what you really want to know, you are likely to ask follow-up questions. These questions will almost always be more specific than your first question. The questions will also express more clearly what you want to know. So, the question “How do first graders solve simple arithmetic problems before they have been taught to add and subtract” might evolve into “Before first graders have been taught to solve arithmetic problems, what strategies do they use to solve arithmetic problems with sums and products below 20?” As you read and learn about what others already know about your questions, you will continually revise your questions toward clearer and more explicit and more precise versions that zero in on what you really want to know. The question above might become, “Before they are taught to solve arithmetic problems, what strategies do beginning first graders use to solve arithmetic problems with sums and products below 20 if they are read story problems and given physical counters to help them keep track of the quantities?”

Imagining Answers to Your Questions

If you monitor your own thinking as you ask questions, you are likely to begin forming some guesses about answers, even to the early versions of the questions. What do students learn about quadratic functions that influences changes in their proportional reasoning when dealing with linear functions? It could be that if you analyze the moments during instruction on quadratic equations that are extensions of the proportional reasoning involved in solving linear equations, there are times when students receive further experience reasoning proportionally. You might predict that these are the experiences that have a “backward transfer” effect (Hohensee, 2014 ).

These initial guesses about answers to your questions are your first predictions. The first predicted answers are likely to be hunches or fuzzy, vague guesses. This simply means you do not know very much yet about the question you are asking. Your first predictions, no matter how unfocused or tentative, represent the most you know at the time about the question you are asking. They help you gauge where you are in your thinking.

Shifting to the Hypothesis Formulation and Testing Path

Research questions can play an important role in the research process. They provide a succinct way of capturing your research interests and communicating them to others. When colleagues want to know about your work, they will often ask “What are your research questions?” It is good to have a ready answer.

However, research questions have limitations. They do not capture the three images of scientific inquiry presented in Chap. 1 . Due, in part, to this less expansive depiction of the process, research questions do not take you very far. They do not provide a guide that leads you through the phases of conducting a study.

Consequently, when you can imagine an answer to your research question, we recommend that you move onto the hypothesis formulation and testing path. Imagining an answer to your question means you can make plausible predictions. You can now begin clarifying the reasons for your predictions and transform your early predictions into hypotheses (predictions along with rationales). We recommend you do this as soon as you have guesses about the answers to your questions because formulating, testing, and revising hypotheses offers a tool that puts you squarely on the path of scientific inquiry. It is a tool that can guide you through the entire process of conducting a research study.

This does not mean you are finished asking questions. Predictions are often created as answers to questions. So, we encourage you to continue asking questions to clarify what you want to know. But your target shifts from only asking questions to also proposing predictions for the answers and developing reasons the answers will be accurate predictions. It is by predicting answers, and explaining why you made those predictions, that you become engaged in scientific inquiry.

Cycles of Refining Questions and Predicting Answers

An example might provide a sense of how this process plays out. Suppose you are reading about Vygotsky’s ( 1987 ) zone of proximal development (ZPD), and you realize this concept might help you understand why your high school students had trouble learning exponential functions. Maybe they were outside this zone when you tried to teach exponential functions. In order to recognize students who would benefit from instruction, you might ask, “How can I identify students who are within the ZPD around exponential functions?” What would you predict? Maybe students in this ZPD are those who already had knowledge of related functions. You could write out some reasons for this prediction, like “students who understand linear and quadratic functions are more likely to extend their knowledge to exponential functions.” But what kind of data would you need to test this? What would count as “understanding”? Are linear and quadratic the functions you should assess? Even if they are, how could you tell whether students who scored well on tests of linear and quadratic functions were within the ZPD of exponential functions? How, in the end, would you measure what it means to be in this ZPD? So, asking a series of reasonable questions raised some red flags about the way your initial question was phrased, and you decide to revise it.

You set the stage for revising your question by defining ZPD as the zone within which students can solve an exponential function problem by making only one additional conceptual connection between what they already know and exponential functions. Your revised question is, “Based on students’ knowledge of linear and quadratic functions, which students are within the ZPD of exponential functions?” This time you know what kind of data you need: the number of conceptual connections students need to bridge from their knowledge of related functions to exponential functions. How can you collect these data? Would you need to see into the minds of the students? Or, are there ways to test the number of conceptual connections someone makes to move from one topic to another? Do methods exist for gathering these data? You decide this is not realistic, so you now have a choice: revise the question further or move your research in a different direction.

Notice that we do not use the term research question for all these early versions of questions that begin clarifying for yourself what you want to study. These early versions are too vague and general to be called research questions. In this book, we save the term research question for a question that comes near the end of the work and captures exactly what you want to study . By the time you are ready to specify a research question, you will be thinking about your study in terms of hypotheses and tests. When your hypotheses are in final form and include clear predictions about what you will find, it will be easy to state the research questions that accompany your predictions.

To reiterate one of the key points of this chapter: hypotheses carry much more information than research questions. Using our definition, hypotheses include predictions about what the answer might be to the question plus reasons for why you think so. Unlike research questions, hypotheses capture all three images of scientific inquiry presented in Chap. 1 (planning, observing and explaining, and revising one’s thinking). Your hypotheses represent the most you know, at the moment, about your research topic. The same cannot be said for research questions.

Beginning with a Research Problem

When you wrote answers to the six questions at the end of Part I of this chapter, you might have identified a research interest by stating it as a problem. This is the third path you might take to begin your research. Perhaps your description of your problem might look something like this: “When I tried to teach my middle school students by presenting them with a challenging problem without showing them how to solve similar problems, they didn’t exert much effort trying to find a solution but instead waited for me to show them how to solve the problem.” You do not have a specific question in mind, and you do not have an idea for why the problem exists, so you do not have a prediction about how to solve it. Writing a statement of this problem as clearly as possible could be the first step in your research journey.

As you think more about this problem, it will feel natural to ask questions about it. For example, why did some students show more initiative than others? What could I have done to get them started? How could I have encouraged the students to keep trying without giving away the solution? You are now on the path of asking questions—not research questions yet, but questions that are helping you focus your interest.

As you continue to think about these questions, reflect on your own experience, and read what others know about this problem, you will likely develop some guesses about the answers to the questions. They might be somewhat vague answers, and you might not have lots of confidence they are correct, but they are guesses that you can turn into predictions. Now you are on the hypothesis-formulation-and-testing path. This means you are on the path of asking yourself why you believe the predictions are correct, developing rationales for the predictions, asking what kinds of empirical observations would test your predictions, and refining your rationales and predictions as you read the literature and talk with colleagues.

A simple diagram that summarizes the three paths we have described is shown in Fig. 2.1 . Each row of arrows represents one pathway for formulating an informed hypothesis. The dotted arrows in the first two rows represent parts of the pathways that a researcher may have implicitly travelled through already (without an intent to form a prediction) but that ultimately inform the researcher’s development of a question or prediction.

Part III. One Researcher’s Experience Launching a Scientific Inquiry

Martha was in her third year of her doctoral program and beginning to identify a topic for her dissertation. Based on (a) her experience as a high school mathematics teacher and a curriculum supervisor, (b) the reading she has done to this point, and (c) her conversations with her colleagues, she has developed an interest in what kinds of professional development experiences (let’s call them learning opportunities [LOs] for teachers) are most effective. Where does she go from here?

Exercise 2.2

Before you continue reading, please write down some suggestions for Martha about where she should start.

A natural thing for Martha to do at this point is to ask herself some additional questions, questions that specify further what she wants to learn: What kinds of LOs do most teachers experience? How do these experiences change teachers’ practices and beliefs? Are some LOs more effective than others? What makes them more effective?

To focus her questions and decide what she really wants to know, she continues reading but now targets her reading toward everything she can find that suggests possible answers to these questions. She also talks with her colleagues to get more ideas about possible answers to these or related questions. Over several weeks or months, she finds herself being drawn to questions about what makes LOs effective, especially for helping teachers teach more conceptually. She zeroes in on the question, “What makes LOs for teachers effective for improving their teaching for conceptual understanding?”

This question is more focused than her first questions, but it is still too general for Martha to define a research study. How does she know it is too general? She uses two criteria. First, she notices that the predictions she makes about the answers to the question are all over the place; they are not constrained by the reasons she has assembled for her predictions. One prediction is that LOs are more effective when they help teachers learn content. Martha makes this guess because previous research suggests that effective LOs for teachers include attention to content. But this rationale allows lots of different predictions. For example, LOs are more effective when they focus on the content teachers will teach; LOs are more effective when they focus on content beyond what teachers will teach so teachers see how their instruction fits with what their students will encounter later; and LOs are more effective when they are tailored to the level of content knowledge participants have when they begin the LOs. The rationale she can provide at this point does not point to a particular prediction.

A second measure Martha uses to decide her question is too general is that the predictions she can make regarding the answers seem very difficult to test. How could she test, for example, whether LOs should focus on content beyond what teachers will teach? What does “content beyond what teachers teach” mean? How could you tell whether teachers use their new knowledge of later content to inform their teaching?

Before anticipating what Martha’s next question might be, it is important to pause and recognize how predicting the answers to her questions moved Martha into a new phase in the research process. As she makes predictions, works out the reasons for them, and imagines how she might test them, she is immersed in scientific inquiry. This intellectual work is the main engine that drives the research process. Also notice that revisions in the questions asked, the predictions made, and the rationales built represent the updated thinking (Chap. 1 ) that occurs as Martha continues to define her study.

Based on all these considerations and her continued reading, Martha revises the question again. The question now reads, “Do LOs that engage middle school mathematics teachers in studying mathematics content help teachers teach this same content with more of a conceptual emphasis?” Although she feels like the question is more specific, she realizes that the answer to the question is either “yes” or “no.” This, by itself, is a red flag. Answers of “yes” or “no” would not contribute much to understanding the relationships between these LOs for teachers and changes in their teaching. Recall from Chap. 1 that understanding how things work, explaining why things work, is the goal of scientific inquiry.

Martha continues by trying to understand why she believes the answer is “yes.” When she tries to write out reasons for predicting “yes,” she realizes that her prediction depends on a variety of factors. If teachers already have deep knowledge of the content, the LOs might not affect them as much as other teachers. If the LOs do not help teachers develop their own conceptual understanding, they are not likely to change their teaching. By trying to build the rationale for her prediction—thus formulating a hypothesis—Martha realizes that the question still is not precise and clear enough.

Martha uses what she learned when developing the rationale and rephrases the question as follows: “ Under what conditions do LOs that engage middle school mathematics teachers in studying mathematics content help teachers teach this same content with more of a conceptual emphasis?” Through several additional cycles of thinking through the rationale for her predictions and how she might test them, Martha specifies her question even further: “Under what conditions do middle school teachers who lack conceptual knowledge of linear functions benefit from LOs that engage them in conceptual learning of linear functions as assessed by changes in their teaching toward a more conceptual emphasis on linear functions?”

Each version of Martha’s question has become more specific. This has occurred as she has (a) identified a starting condition for the teachers—they lack conceptual knowledge of linear functions, (b) specified the mathematics content as linear functions, and (c) included a condition or purpose of the LO—it is aimed at conceptual learning.

Because of the way Martha’s question is now phrased, her predictions will require thinking about the conditions that could influence what teachers learn from the LOs and how this learning could affect their teaching. She might predict that if teachers engaged in LOs that extended over multiple sessions, they would develop deeper understanding which would, in turn, prompt changes in their teaching. Or she might predict that if the LOs included examples of how their conceptual learning could translate into different instructional activities for their students, teachers would be more likely to change their teaching. Reasons for these predictions would likely come from research about the effects of professional development on teachers’ practice.

As Martha thinks about testing her predictions, she realizes it will probably be easier to measure the conditions under which teachers are learning than the changes in the conceptual emphasis in their instruction. She makes a note to continue searching the literature for ways to measure the “conceptualness” of teaching.

As she refines her predictions and expresses her reasons for the predictions, she formulates a hypothesis (in this case several hypotheses) that will guide her research. As she makes predictions and develops the rationales for these predictions, she will probably continue revising her question. She might decide, for example, that she is not interested in studying the condition of different numbers of LO sessions and so decides to remove this condition from consideration by including in her question something like “. . . over five 2-hour sessions . . .”

At this point, Martha has developed a research question, articulated a number of predictions, and developed rationales for them. Her current question is: “Under what conditions do middle school teachers who lack conceptual knowledge of linear functions benefit from five 2-hour LO sessions that engage them in conceptual learning of linear functions as assessed by changes in their teaching toward a more conceptual emphasis on linear functions?” Her hypothesis is:

Prediction: Participating teachers will show changes in their teaching with a greater emphasis on conceptual understanding, with larger changes on linear function topics directly addressed in the LOs than on other topics.

Brief Description of Rationale: (1) Past research has shown correlations between teachers’ specific mathematics knowledge of a topic and the quality of their teaching of that topic. This does not mean an increase in knowledge causes higher quality teaching but it allows for that possibility. (2) Transfer is usually difficult for teachers, but the examples developed during the LO sessions will help them use what they learned to teach for conceptual understanding. This is because the examples developed during the LO sessions are much like those that will be used by the teachers. So larger changes will be found when teachers are teaching the linear function topics addressed in the LOs.

Notice it is more straightforward to imagine how Martha could test this prediction because it is more precise than previous predictions. Notice also that by asking how to test a particular prediction, Martha will be faced with a decision about whether testing this prediction will tell her something she wants to learn. If not, she can return to the research question and consider how to specify it further and, perhaps, constrain further the conditions that could affect the data.

As Martha formulates her hypotheses and goes through multiple cycles of refining her question(s), articulating her predictions, and developing her rationales, she is constantly building the theoretical framework for her study. Because the theoretical framework is the topic for Chap. 3 , we will pause here and pick up Martha’s story in the next chapter. Spoiler alert: Martha’s experience contains some surprising twists and turns.

Before leaving Martha, however, we point out two aspects of the process in which she has been engaged. First, it can be useful to think about the process as identifying (1) the variables targeted in her predictions, (2) the mechanisms she believes explain the relationships among the variables, and (3) the definitions of all the terms that are special to her educational problem. By variables, we mean things that can be measured and, when measured, can take on different values. In Martha’s case, the variables are the conceptualness of teaching and the content topics addressed in the LOs. The mechanisms are cognitive processes that enable teachers to see the relevance of what they learn in PD to their own teaching and that enable the transfer of learning from one setting to another. Definitions are the precise descriptions of how the important ideas relevant to the research are conceptualized. In Martha’s case, definitions must be provided for terms like conceptual understanding, linear functions, LOs, each of the topics related to linear functions, instructional setting, and knowledge transfer.

A second aspect of the process is a practice that Martha acquired as part of her graduate program, a practice that can go unnoticed. Martha writes out, in full sentences, her thinking as she wrestles with her research question, her predictions of the answers, and the rationales for her predictions. Writing is a tool for organizing thinking and we recommend you use it throughout the scientific inquiry process. We say more about this at the end of the chapter.

Here are the questions Martha wrote as she developed a clearer sense of what question she wanted to answer and what answer she predicted. The list shows the increasing refinement that occurred as she continued to read, think, talk, and write.

Early questions: What kinds of LOs do most teachers experience? How do these experiences change teachers’ practices and beliefs? Are some LOs more effective than others? What makes them more effective?

First focused question: What makes LOs for teachers effective for improving their teaching for conceptual understanding?

Question after trying to predict the answer and imagining how to test the prediction: Do LOs that engage middle school mathematics teachers in studying mathematics content help teachers teach this same content with more of a conceptual emphasis?

Question after developing an initial rationale for her prediction: Under what conditions do LOs that engage middle school mathematics teachers in studying mathematics content help teachers teach this same content with more of a conceptual emphasis?

Question after developing a more precise prediction and richer rationale: Under what conditions do middle school teachers who lack conceptual knowledge of linear functions benefit from five 2-hour LO sessions that engage them in conceptual learning of linear functions as assessed by changes in their teaching toward a more conceptual emphasis on linear functions?

Part IV. An Illustrative Dialogue

The story of Martha described the major steps she took to refine her thinking. However, there is a lot of work that went on behind the scenes that wasn’t part of the story. For example, Martha had conversations with fellow students and professors that sharpened her thinking. What do these conversations look like? Because they are such an important part of the inquiry process, it will be helpful to “listen in” on the kinds of conversations that students might have with their advisors.

Here is a dialogue between a beginning student, Sam (S), and their advisor, Dr. Avery (A). They are meeting to discuss data Sam collected for a course project. The dialogue below is happening very early on in Sam’s conceptualization of the study, prior even to systematic reading of the literature.

Thanks for meeting with me today. As you know, I was able to collect some data for a course project a few weeks ago, but I’m having trouble analyzing the data, so I need your help. Let me try to explain the problem. As you know, I wanted to understand what middle-school teachers do to promote girls’ achievement in a mathematics class. I conducted four observations in each of three teachers’ classrooms. I also interviewed each teacher once about the four lessons I observed, and I interviewed two girls from each of the teachers’ classes. Obviously, I have a ton of data. But when I look at all these data, I don’t really know what I learned about my topic. When I was observing the teachers, I thought I might have observed some ways the teachers were promoting girls’ achievement, but then I wasn’t sure how to interpret my data. I didn’t know if the things I was observing were actually promoting girls’ achievement.

What were some of your observations?

Well, in a couple of my classroom observations, teachers called on girls to give an answer, even when the girls didn’t have their hands up. I thought that this might be a way that teachers were promoting the girls’ achievement. But then the girls didn’t say anything about that when I interviewed them and also the teachers didn’t do it in every class. So, it’s hard to know what effect, if any, this might have had on their learning or their motivation to learn. I didn’t want to ask the girls during the interview specifically about the teacher calling on them, and without the girls bringing it up themselves, I didn’t know if it had any effect.

Well, why didn’t you want to ask the girls about being called on?

Because I wanted to leave it as open as possible; I didn’t want to influence what they were going to say. I didn’t want to put words in their mouths. I wanted to know what they thought the teacher was doing that promoted their mathematical achievement and so I only asked the girls general questions, like “Do you think the teacher does things to promote girls’ mathematical achievement?” and “Can you describe specific experiences you have had that you believe do and do not promote your mathematical achievement?”

So then, how did they answer those general questions?

Well, with very general answers, such as that the teacher knows their names, offers review sessions, grades their homework fairly, gives them opportunities to earn extra credit, lets them ask questions, and always answers their questions. Nothing specific that helps me know what teaching actions specifically target girls’ mathematics achievement.

OK. Any ideas about what you might do next?

Well, I remember that when I was planning this data collection for my course, you suggested I might want to be more targeted and specific about what I was looking for. I can see now that more targeted questions would have made my data more interpretable in terms of connecting teaching actions to the mathematical achievement of girls. But I just didn’t want to influence what the girls would say.

Yes, I remember when you were planning your course project, you wanted to keep it open. You didn’t want to miss out on discovering something new and interesting. What do you think now about this issue?

Well, I still don’t want to put words in their mouths. I want to know what they think. But I see that if I ask really open questions, I have no guarantee they will talk about what I want them to talk about. I guess I still like the idea of an open study, but I see that it’s a risky approach. Leaving the questions too open meant I didn’t constrain their responses and there were too many ways they could interpret and answer the questions. And there are too many ways I could interpret their responses.

By this point in the dialogue, Sam has realized that open data (i.e., data not testing a specific prediction) is difficult to interpret. In the next part, Dr. Avery explains why collecting open data was not helping Sam achieve goals for her study that had motivated collecting open data in the first place.

Yes, I totally agree. Even for an experienced researcher, it can be difficult to make sense of this kind of open, messy data. However, if you design a study with a more specific focus, you can create questions for participants that are more targeted because you will be interested in their answers to these specific questions. Let’s reflect back on your data collection. What can you learn from it for the future?

When I think about it now, I realize that I didn’t think about the distinction between all the different constructs at play in my study, and I didn’t choose which one I was focusing on. One construct was the teaching moves that teachers think could be promoting achievement. Another is what teachers deliberately do to promote girls’ mathematics achievement, if anything. Another was the teaching moves that actually do support girls’ mathematics achievement. Another was what teachers were doing that supported girls’ mathematics achievement versus the mathematics achievement of all students. Another was students’ perception of what their teacher was doing to promote girls’ mathematics achievement. I now see that any one of these constructs could have been the focus of a study and that I didn’t really decide which of these was the focus of my course project prior to collecting data.

So, since you told me that the topic of this course project is probably what you’ll eventually want to study for your dissertation, which of these constructs are you most interested in?

I think I’m more interested in the teacher moves that teachers deliberately do to promote girls’ achievement. But I’m still worried about asking teachers directly and getting too specific about what they do because I don’t want to bias what they will say. And I chose qualitative methods and an exploratory design because I thought it would allow for a more open approach, an approach that helps me see what’s going on and that doesn’t bias or predetermine the results.

Well, it seems to me you are conflating three issues. One issue is how to conduct an unbiased study. Another issue is how specific to make your study. And the third issue is whether or not to choose an exploratory or qualitative study design. Those three issues are not the same. For example, designing a study that’s more open or more exploratory is not how researchers make studies fair and unbiased. In fact, it would be quite easy to create an open study that is biased. For example, you could ask very open questions and then interpret the responses in a way that unintentionally, and even unknowingly, aligns with what you were hoping the findings would say. Actually, you could argue that by adding more specificity and narrowing your focus, you’re creating constraints that prevent bias. The same goes for an exploratory or qualitative study; they can be biased or unbiased. So, let’s talk about what is meant by getting more specific. Within your new focus on what teachers deliberately do, there are many things that would be interesting to look at, such as teacher moves that address math anxiety, moves that allow girls to answer questions more frequently, moves that are specifically fitted to student thinking about specific mathematical content, and so on. What are one or two things that are most interesting to you? One way to answer this question is by thinking back to where your interest in this topic began.

In the preceding part of the dialogue, Dr. Avery explained how the goals Sam had for their study were not being met with open data. In the next part, Sam begins to articulate a prediction, which Sam and Dr. Avery then sharpen.

Actually, I became interested in this topic because of an experience I had in college when I was in a class of mostly girls. During whole class discussions, we were supposed to critically evaluate each other’s mathematical thinking, but we were too polite to do that. Instead, we just praised each other’s work. But it was so different in our small groups. It seemed easier to critique each other’s thinking and to push each other to better solutions in small groups. I began wondering how to get girls to be more critical of each other’s thinking in a whole class discussion in order to push everyone’s thinking.

Okay, this is great information. Why not use this idea to zoom-in on a more manageable and interpretable study? You could look specifically at how teachers support girls in critically evaluating each other’s thinking during whole class discussions. That would be a much more targeted and specific topic. Do you have predictions about what teachers could do in that situation, keeping in mind that you are looking specifically at girls’ mathematical achievement, not students in general?

Well, what I noticed was that small groups provided more social and emotional support for girls, whereas the whole class discussion did not provide that same support. The girls felt more comfortable critiquing each other’s thinking in small groups. So, I guess I predict that when the social and emotional supports that are present in small groups are extended to the whole class discussion, girls would be more willing to evaluate each other’s mathematical thinking critically during whole class discussion . I guess ultimately, I’d like to know how the whole class discussion could be used to enhance, rather than undermine, the social and emotional support that is present in the small groups.

Okay, then where would you start? Would you start with a study of what the teachers say they will do during whole class discussion and then observe if that happens during whole class discussion?

But part of my prediction also involves the small groups. So, I’d also like to include small groups in my study if possible. If I focus on whole groups, I won’t be exploring what I am interested in. My interest is broader than just the whole class discussion.

That makes sense, but there are many different things you could look at as part of your prediction, more than you can do in one study. For instance, if your prediction is that when the social and emotional supports that are present in small groups are extended to whole class discussions, girls would be more willing to evaluate each other’s mathematical thinking critically during whole class discussions , then you could ask the following questions: What are the social and emotional supports that are present in small groups?; In which small groups do they exist?; Is it groups that are made up only of girls?; Does every small group do this, and for groups that do this, when do these supports get created?; What kinds of small group activities that teachers ask them to work on are associated with these supports?; Do the same social and emotional supports that apply to small groups even apply to whole group discussion?

All your questions make me realize that my prediction about extending social and emotional supports to whole class discussions first requires me to have a better understanding of the social and emotional supports that exist in small groups. In fact, I first need to find out whether those supports commonly exist in small groups or is that just my experience working in small groups. So, I think I will first have to figure out what small groups do to support each other and then, in a later study, I could ask a teacher to implement those supports during whole class discussions and find out how you can do that. Yeah, now I’m seeing that.

The previous part of the dialogue illustrates how continuing to ask questions about one’s initial prediction is a good way to make it more and more precise (and researchable). In the next part, we see how developing a precise prediction has the added benefit of setting the researcher up for future studies.

Yes, I agree that for your first study, you should probably look at small groups. In other words, you should focus on only a part of your prediction for now, namely the part that says there are social and emotional supports in small groups that support girls in critiquing each other’s thinking . That begins to sharpen the focus of your prediction, but you’ll want to continue to refine it. For example, right now, the question that this prediction leads to is a question with a yes or no answer, but what you’ve said so far suggests to me that you are looking for more than that.

Yes, I want to know more than just whether there are supports. I’d like to know what kinds. That’s why I wanted to do a qualitative study.

Okay, this aligns more with my thinking about research as being prediction driven. It’s about collecting data that would help you revise your existing predictions into better ones. What I mean is that you would focus on collecting data that would allow you to refine your prediction, make it more nuanced, and go beyond what is already known. Does that make sense, and if so, what would that look like for your prediction?

Oh yes, I like that. I guess that would mean that, based on the data I collect for this next study, I could develop a more refined prediction that, for example, more specifically identifies and differentiates between different kinds of social and emotional supports that are present in small groups, or maybe that identifies the kinds of small groups that they occur in, or that predicts when and how frequently or infrequently they occur, or about the features of the small group tasks in which they occur, etc. I now realize that, although I chose qualitative research to make my study be more open, really the reason qualitative research fits my purposes is because it will allow me to explore fine-grained aspects of social and emotional supports that may exist for girls in small groups.

Yes, exactly! And then, based on the data you collect, you can include in your revised prediction those new fine-grained aspects. Furthermore, you will have a story to tell about your study in your written report, namely the story about your evolving prediction. In other words, your written report can largely tell how you filled out and refined your prediction as you learned more from carrying out the study. And even though you might not use them right away, you are also going to be able to develop new predictions that you would not have even thought of about social and emotional supports in small groups and your aim of extending them to whole-class discussions, had you not done this study. That will set you up to follow up on those new predictions in future studies. For example, you might have more refined ideas after you collect the data about the goals for critiquing student thinking in small groups versus the goals for critiquing student thinking during whole class discussion. You might even begin to think that some of the social and emotional supports you observe are not even replicable or even applicable to or appropriate for whole-class discussions, because the supports play different roles in different contexts. So, to summarize what I’m saying, what you look at in this study, even though it will be very focused, sets you up for a research program that will allow you to more fully investigate your broader interest in this topic, where each new study builds on your prior body of work. That’s why it is so important to be explicit about the best place to start this research, so that you can build on it.

I see what you are saying. We started this conversation talking about my course project data. What I think I should have done was figure out explicitly what I needed to learn with that study with the intention of then taking what I learned and using it as the basis for the next study. I didn’t do that, and so I didn’t collect data that pushed forward my thinking in ways that would guide my next study. It would be as if I was starting over with my next study.

Sam and Dr. Avery have just explored how specifying a prediction reveals additional complexities that could become fodder for developing a systematic research program. Next, we watch Sam beginning to recognize the level of specificity required for a prediction to be testable.

One thing that would have really helped would have been if you had had a specific prediction going into your data collection for your course project.

Well, I didn’t really have much of an explicit prediction in mind when I designed my methods.

Think back, you must have had some kind of prediction, even if it was implicit.

Well, yes, I guess I was predicting that teachers would enact moves that supported girls’ mathematical achievement. And I observed classrooms to identify those teacher moves, I interviewed teachers to ask them about the moves I observed, and I interviewed students to see if they mentioned those moves as promoting their mathematical achievement. The goal of my course project was to identify teacher moves that support girls’ mathematical achievement. And my specific research question was: What teacher moves support girls’ mathematical achievement?

So, really you were asking the teacher and students to show and tell you what those moves are and the effects of those moves, as a result putting the onus on your participants to provide the answers to your research question for you. I have an idea, let’s try a thought experiment. You come up with data collection methods for testing the prediction that there are social and emotional supports in small groups that support girls in critiquing each other’s thinking that still puts the onus on the participants. And then I’ll see if I can think of data collection methods that would not put the onus on the participants.

Hmm, well. .. I guess I could simply interview girls who participated in small groups and ask them “are there social and emotional supports that you use in small groups that support your group in critiquing each other’s thinking and if so, what are they?” In that case, I would be putting the onus on them to be aware of the social dynamics of small groups and to have thought about these constructs as much as I have. Okay now can you continue the thought experiment? What might the data collection methods look like if I didn’t put the onus on the participants?

First, I would pick a setting in which it was only girls at this point to reduce the number of variables. Then, personally I would want to observe a lot of groups of girls interacting in groups around tasks. I would be looking for instances when the conversation about students’ ideas was shut down and instances when the conversation about students’ ideas involved critiquing of ideas and building on each other’s thinking. I would also look at what happened just before and during those instances, such as: did the student continue to talk after their thinking was critiqued, did other students do anything to encourage the student to build on their own thinking (i.e., constructive criticism) or how did they support or shut down continued participation. In fact, now that I think about it, “critiquing each other’s thinking” can be defined in a number of different ways. I could mean just commenting on someone’s thinking, judging correctness and incorrectness, constructive criticism that moves the thinking forward, etc. If you put the onus on the participants to answer your research question, you are stuck with their definition, and they won’t have thought about this very much, if at all.

I think that what you are also saying is that my definitions would affect my data collection. If I think that critiquing each other’s thinking means that the group moves their thinking forward toward more valid and complete mathematical solutions, then I’m going to focus on different moves than if I define it another way, such as just making a comment on each other’s thinking and making each other feel comfortable enough to keep participating. In fact, am I going to look at individual instances of critiquing or look at entire sequences in which the critiquing leads to a goal? This seems like a unit of analysis question, and I would need to develop a more nuanced prediction that would make explicit what that unit of analysis is.

I agree, your definition of “critiquing each other’s thinking” could entirely change what you are predicting. One prediction could be based on defining critiquing as a one-shot event in which someone makes one comment on another person’s thinking. In this case the prediction would be that there are social and emotional supports in small groups that support girls in making an evaluative comment on another student’s thinking. Another prediction could be based on defining critiquing as a back-and-forth process in which the thinking gets built on and refined. In that case, the prediction would be something like that there are social and emotional supports in small groups that support girls in critiquing each other’s thinking in ways that do not shut down the conversation but that lead to sustained conversations that move each other toward more valid and complete solutions.

Well, I think I am more interested in the second prediction because it is more compatible with my long-term interests, which are that I’m interested in extending small group supports to whole class discussions. The second prediction is more appropriate for eventually looking at girls in whole class discussion. During whole class discussion, the teacher tries to get a sustained conversation going that moves the students’ thinking forward. So, if I learn about small group supports that lead to sustained conversations that move each other toward more valid and complete solutions , those supports might transfer to whole class discussions.

In the previous part of the dialogue, Dr. Avery and Sam showed how narrowing down a prediction to one that is testable requires making numerous important decisions, including how to define the constructs referred to in the prediction. In the final part of the dialogue, Dr. Avery and Sam begin to outline the reading Sam will have to do to develop a rationale for the specific prediction.

Do you see how your prediction and definitions are getting more and more specific? You now need to read extensively to further refine your prediction.

Well, I should probably read about micro dynamics of small group interactions, anything about interactions in small groups, and what is already known about small group interactions that support sustained conversations that move students’ thinking toward more valid and complete solutions. I guess I could also look at research on whole-class discussion methods that support sustained conversations that move the class to more mathematically valid and complete solutions, because it might give me ideas for what to look for in the small groups. I might also need to focus on research about how learners develop understandings about a particular subject matter so that I know what “more valid and complete solutions” look like. I also need to read about social and emotional supports but focus on how they support students cognitively, rather than in other ways.

Sounds good, let’s get together after you have processed some of this literature and we can talk about refining your prediction based on what you read and also the methods that will best suit testing that prediction.

Great! Thanks for meeting with me. I feel like I have a much better set of tools that push my own thinking forward and allow me to target something specific that will lead to more interpretable data.

Part V. Is It Always Possible to Formulate Hypotheses?

In Chap. 1 , we noted you are likely to read that research does not require formulating hypotheses. Some sources describe doing research without making predictions and developing rationales for these predictions. Some researchers say you cannot always make predictions—you do not know enough about the situation. In fact, some argue for the value of not making predictions (e.g., Glaser & Holton, 2004 ; Merton, 1968 ; Nemirovsky, 2011 ). These are important points of view, so we will devote this section to discussing them.

Can You Always Predict What You Will Find?

One reason some researchers say you do not need to make predictions is that it can be difficult to imagine what you will find. This argument comes up most often for descriptive studies. Suppose you want to describe the nature of a situation you do not know much about. Can you still make a prediction about what you will find? We believe that, although you do not know exactly what you will find, you probably have a hunch or, at a minimum, a very fuzzy idea. It would be unusual to ask a question about a situation you want to know about without at least a fuzzy inkling of what you might find. The original question just would not occur to you. We acknowledge you might have only a vague idea of what you will find and you might not have much confidence in your prediction. However, we expect if you monitor your own thinking you will discover you have developed a suspicion along the way, regardless how vague the suspicion might be. Through the cyclic process we discussed above, that suspicion or hunch gradually evolves and turns into a prediction.

The Benefits of Making Predictions Even When They Are Wrong: An Example from the 1970s

One of us was a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin in the late 1970s, assigned as a research assistant to a project that was investigating young children’s thinking about simple arithmetic. A new curriculum was being written, and the developers wanted to know how to introduce the earliest concepts and skills to kindergarten and first-grade children. The directors of the project did not know what to expect because, at the time, there was little research on five- and six-year-olds’ pre-instruction strategies for adding and subtracting.

After consulting what literature was available, talking with teachers, analyzing the nature of different types of addition and subtraction problems, and debating with each other, the research team formulated some hypotheses about children’s performance. Following the usual assumptions at the time and recognizing the new curriculum would introduce the concepts, the researchers predicted that, before instruction, most children would not be able to solve the problems. Based on the rationale that some young children did not yet recognize the simple form for written problems (e.g., 5 + 3 = ___), the researchers predicted that the best chance for success would be to read problems as stories (e.g., Jesse had 5 apples and then found 3 more. How many does she have now?). They reasoned that, even though children would have difficulty on all the problems, some story problems would be easier because the semantic structure is easier to follow. For example, they predicted the above story about adding 3 apples to 5 would be easier than a problem like, “Jesse had some apples in the refrigerator. She put in 2 more and now has 6. How many were in the refrigerator at the beginning?” Based on the rationale that children would need to count to solve the problems and that it can be difficult to keep track of the numbers, they predicted children would be more successful if they were given counters. Finally, accepting the common reasoning that larger numbers are more difficult than smaller numbers, they predicted children would be more successful if all the numbers in a problem were below 10.

Although these predictions were not very precise and the rationales were not strongly convincing, these hypotheses prompted the researchers to design the study to test their predictions. This meant they would collect data by presenting a variety of problems under a variety of conditions. Because the goal was to describe children’s thinking, problems were presented to students in individual interviews. Problems with different semantic structures were included, counters were available for some problems but not others, and some problems had sums to 9 whereas others had sums to 20 or more.

The punchline of this story is that gathering data under these conditions, prompted by the predictions, made all the difference in what the researchers learned. Contrary to predictions, children could solve addition and subtraction problems before instruction. Counters were important because almost all the solution strategies were based on counting which meant that memory was an issue because many strategies require counting in two ways simultaneously. For example, subtracting 4 from 7 was usually solved by counting down from 7 while counting up from 1 to 4 to keep track of counting down. Because children acted out the stories with their counters, the semantic structure of the story was also important. Stories that were easier to read and write were also easier to solve.

To make a very long story very short, other researchers were, at about the same time, reporting similar results about children’s pre-instruction arithmetic capabilities. A clear pattern emerged regarding the relative difficulty of different problem types (semantic structures) and the strategies children used to solve each type. As the data were replicated, the researchers recognized that kindergarten and first-grade teachers could make good use of this information when they introduced simple arithmetic. This is how Cognitively Guided Instruction (CGI) was born (Carpenter et al., 1989 ; Fennema et al., 1996 ).

To reiterate, the point of this example is that the study conducted to describe children’s thinking would have looked quite different if the researchers had made no predictions. They would have had no reason to choose the particular problems and present them under different conditions. The fact that some of the predictions were completely wrong is not the point. The predictions created the conditions under which the predictions were tested which, in turn, created learning opportunities for the researchers that would not have existed without the predictions. The lesson is that even research that aims to simply describe a phenomenon can benefit from hypotheses. As signaled in Chap. 1 , this also serves as another example of “failing productively.”

Suggestions for What to Do When You Do Not Have Predictions

There likely are exceptions to our claim about being able to make a prediction about what you will find. For example, there could be rare cases where researchers truly have no idea what they will find and can come up with no predictions and even no hunches. And, no research has been reported on related phenomena that would offer some guidance. If you find yourself in this position, we suggest one of three approaches: revise your question, conduct a pilot study, or choose another question.

Because there are many advantages to making predictions explicit and then writing out the reasons for these predictions, one approach is to adjust your question just enough to allow you to make a prediction. Perhaps you can build on descriptions that other researchers have provided for related situations and consider how you can extend this work. Building on previous descriptions will enable you to make predictions about the situation you want to describe.

A second approach is to conduct a small pilot study or, better, a series of small pilot studies to develop some preliminary ideas of what you might find. If you can identify a small sample of participants who are similar to those in your study, you can try out at least some of your research plans to help make and refine your predictions. As we detail later, you can also use pilot studies to check whether key aspects of your methods (e.g., tasks, interview questions, data collection methods) work as you expect.

A third approach is to return to your list of interests and choose one that has been studied previously. Sometimes this is the wisest choice. It is very difficult for beginning researchers to conduct research in brand-new areas where no hunches or predictions are possible. In addition, the contributions of this research can be limited. Recall the earlier story about one of us “failing productively” by completing a dissertation in a somewhat new area. If, after an exhaustive search, you find that no one has investigated the phenomenon in which you are interested or even related phenomena, it can be best to move in a different direction. You will read recommendations in other sources to find a “gap” in the research and develop a study to “fill the gap.” This can be helpful advice if the gap is very small. However, if the gap is large, too large to predict what you might find, the study will present severe challenges. It will be more productive to extend work that has already been done than to launch into an entirely new area.

Should You Always Try to Predict What You Will Find?

In short, our answer to the question in the heading is “yes.” But this calls for further explanation.

Suppose you want to observe a second-grade classroom in order to investigate how students talk about adding and subtracting whole numbers. You might think, “I don’t want to bias my thinking; I want to be completely open to what I see in the classroom.” Sam shared a similar point of view at the beginning of the dialogue: “I wanted to leave it as open as possible; I didn’t want to influence what they were going to say.” Some researchers say that beginning your research study by making predictions is inappropriate precisely because it will bias your observations and results. The argument is that by bringing a set of preconceptions, you will confirm what you expected to find and be blind to other observations and outcomes. The following quote illustrates this view: “The first step in gaining theoretical sensitivity is to enter the research setting with as few predetermined ideas as possible—especially logically deducted, a priori hypotheses. In this posture, the analyst is able to remain sensitive to the data by being able to record events and detect happenings without first having them filtered through and squared with pre-existing hypotheses and biases” (Glaser, 1978, pp. 2–3).

We take a different point of view. In fact, we believe there are several compelling reasons for making your predictions explicit.

Making Your Predictions Explicit Increases Your Chances of Productive Observations

Because your predictions are an extension of what is already known, they prepare you to identify more nuanced relationships that can advance our understanding of a phenomenon. For example, rather than simply noticing, in a general sense, that students talking about addition and subtraction leads them to better understandings, you might, based on your prediction, make the specific observation that talking about addition and subtraction in a particular way helps students to think more deeply about a particular concept related to addition and subtraction. Going into a study without predictions can bring less sensitivity rather than more to the study of a phenomenon. Drawing on knowledge about related phenomena by reading the literature and conducting pilot studies allows you to be much more sensitive and your observations to be more productive.

Making Your Predictions Explicit Allows You to Guard Against Biases

Some genres and methods of educational research are, in fact, rooted in philosophical traditions (e.g., Husserl, 1929/ 1973 ) that explicitly call for researchers to temporarily “bracket” or set aside existing theory as well as their prior knowledge and experience to better enter into the experience of the participants in the research. However, this does not mean ignoring one’s own knowledge and experience or turning a blind eye to what has been learned by others. Much more than the simplistic image of emptying one’s mind of preconceptions and implicit biases (arguably an impossible feat to begin with), the goal is to be as reflective as possible about one’s prior knowledge and conceptions and as transparent as possible about how they may guide observations and shape interpretations (Levitt et al., 2018 ).

We believe it is better to be honest about the predictions you are almost sure to have because then you can deliberately plan to minimize the chances they will influence what you find and how you interpret your results. For starters, it is important to recognize that acknowledging you have some guesses about what you will find does not make them more influential. Because you are likely to have them anyway, we recommend being explicit about what they are. It is easier to deal with biases that are explicit than those that lurk in the background and are not acknowledged.

What do we mean by “deal with biases”? Some journals require you to include a statement about your “positionality” with respect to the participants in your study and the observations you are making to gather data. Formulating clear hypotheses is, in our view, a direct response to this request. The reasons for your predictions are your explicit statements about your positionality. Often there are methodological strategies you can use to protect the study from undue influences of bias. In other words, making your vague predictions explicit can help you design your study so you minimize the bias of your findings.

Making Your Predictions Explicit Can Help You See What You Did Not Predict

Making your predictions explicit does not need to blind you to what is different than expected. It does not need to force you to see only what you want to see. Instead, it can actually increase your sensitivity to noticing features of the situation that are surprising, features you did not predict. Results can stand out when you did not expect to see them.

In contrast, not bringing your biases to consciousness might subtly shift your attention away from these unexpected results in ways that you are not aware of. This path can lead to claiming no biases and no unexpected findings without being conscious of them. You cannot observe everything, and some things inevitably will be overlooked. If you have predicted what you will see, you can design your study so that the unexpected results become more salient rather than less.

Returning to the example of observing a second-grade classroom, we note that the field already knows a great deal about how students talk about addition and subtraction. Being cognizant of what others have observed allows you to enter the classroom with some clear predictions about what will happen. The rationales for these predictions are based on all the related knowledge you have before stepping into the classroom, and the predictions and rationales help you to better deal with what you see. This is partly because you are likely to be surprised by the things you did not anticipate. There is almost always something that will surprise you because your predictions will almost always be incomplete or too general. This sensitivity to the unanticipated—the sense of surprise that sparks your curiosity—is an indication of your openness to the phenomenon you are studying.

Making Your Predictions Explicit Allows You to Plan in Advance

Recall from Chap. 1 the descriptor of scientific inquiry: “Experience carefully planned in advance.” If you make no predictions about what might happen, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to plan your study in advance. Again, you cannot observe everything, so you must make decisions about what you will observe. What kind of data will you plan to collect? Why would you collect these data instead of others? If you have no idea what to expect, on what basis will you make these consequential decisions? Even if your predictions are vague and your rationales for the predictions are a bit shaky, at least they provide a direction for your plan. They allow you to explain why you are planning this study and collecting these data. They allow you to “carefully plan in advance.”

Making Your Predictions Explicit Allows You to Put Your Rationales in Harm’s Way

Rationales are developed to justify the predictions. Rationales represent your best reasoning about the research problem you are studying. How can you tell whether your reasoning is sound? You can try it out with colleagues. However, the best way to test it is to put it in “harm’s way” (Cobb, Confrey, diSessa, Lehrer, & Schauble, 2003 p. 10). And the best approach to putting your reasoning in harm’s way is to test the predictions it generates. Regardless if you are conducting a qualitative or quantitative study, rationales can be improved only if they generate testable predictions. This is possible only if predictions are explicit and precise. As we described earlier, rationales are evaluated for their soundness and refined in light of the specific differences between predictions and empirical observations.

Making Your Predictions Explicit Forces You to Organize and Extend Your (and the Field’s) Thinking

By writing out your predictions (even hunches or fuzzy guesses) and by reflecting on why you have these predictions and making these reasons explicit for yourself, you are advancing your thinking about the questions you really want to answer. This means you are making progress toward formulating your research questions and your final hypotheses. Making more progress in your own thinking before you conduct your study increases the chances your study will be of higher quality and will be exactly the study you intended. Making predictions, developing rationales, and imagining tests are tools you can use to push your thinking forward before you even collect data.

Suppose you wonder how preservice teachers in your university’s teacher preparation program will solve particular kinds of math problems. You are interested in this question because you have noticed several PSTs solve them in unexpected ways. As you ask the question you want to answer, you make predictions about what you expect to see. When you reflect on why you made these predictions, you realize that some PSTs might use particular solution strategies because they were taught to use some of them in an earlier course, and they might believe you expect them to solve the problems in these ways. By being explicit about why you are making particular predictions, you realize that you might be answering a different question than you intend (“How much do PSTs remember from previous courses?” or even “To what extent do PSTs believe different instructors have similar expectations?”). Now you can either change your question or change the design of your study (i.e., the sample of students you will use) or both. You are advancing your thinking by being explicit about your predictions and why you are making them.

The Costs of Not Making Predictions

Avoiding making predictions, for whatever reason, comes with significant costs. It prevents you from learning very much about your research topic. It would require not reading related research, not talking with your colleagues, and not conducting pilot studies because, if you do, you are likely to find a prediction creeping into your thinking. Not doing these things would forego the benefits of advancing your thinking before you collect data. It would amount to conducting the study with as little forethought as possible.

Part VI. How Do You Formulate Important Hypotheses?

We provided a partial answer in Chap. 1 to the question of a hypothesis’ importance when we encouraged considering the ultimate goal to which a study’s findings might contribute. You might want to reread Part III of Chap. 1 where we offered our opinions about the purposes of doing research. We also recommend reading the March 2019 editorial in the Journal for Research in Mathematics Education (Cai et al., 2019b ) in which we address what constitutes important educational research.

As we argued in Chap. 1 and in the March 2019 editorial, a worthy ultimate goal for educational research is to improve the learning opportunities for all students. However, arguments can be made for other ultimate goals as well. To gauge the importance of your hypotheses, think about how clearly you can connect them to a goal the educational community considers important. In addition, given the descriptors of scientific inquiry proposed in Chap. 1 , think about how testing your hypotheses will help you (and the community) understand what you are studying. Will you have a better explanation for the phenomenon after your study than before?

Although we address the question of importance again, and in more detail, in Chap. 5 , it is useful to know here that you can determine the significance or importance of your hypotheses when you formulate them. The importance need not depend on the data you collect or the results you report. The importance can come from the fact that, based on the results of your study, you will be able to offer revised hypotheses that help the field better understand an important issue. In large part, it is these revised hypotheses rather than the data that determine a study’s importance.

A critical caveat to this discussion is that few hypotheses are self-evidently important. They are important only if you make the case for their importance. Even if you follow closely the guidelines we suggest for formulating an important hypothesis, you must develop an argument that convinces others. This argument will be presented in the research paper you write.

Consider Martha’s hypothesis presented earlier. When we left Martha, she predicted that “Participating teachers will show changes in their teaching with a greater emphasis on conceptual understanding with larger changes on linear function topics directly addressed in the LOs than on other topics.” For researchers and educators not intimately familiar with this area of research, it is not apparent why someone should spend a year or more conducting a dissertation to test this prediction. Her rationale, summarized earlier, begins to describe why this could be an important hypothesis. But it is by writing a clear argument that explains her rationale to readers that she will convince them of its importance.

How Martha fills in her rationale so she can create a clear written argument for its importance is taken up in Chap. 3 . As we indicated, Martha’s work in this regard led her to make some interesting decisions, in part due to her own assessment of what was important.

Part VII. Beginning to Write the Research Paper for Your Study

It is common to think that researchers conduct a study and then, after the data are collected and analyzed, begin writing the paper about the study. We recommend an alternative, especially for beginning researchers. We believe it is better to write drafts of the paper at the same time you are planning and conducting your study. The paper will gradually evolve as you work through successive phases of the scientific inquiry process. Consequently, we will call this paper your evolving research paper .

You will use your evolving research paper to communicate your study, but you can also use writing as a tool for thinking and organizing your thinking while planning and conducting the study. Used as a tool for thinking, you can write drafts of your ideas to check on the clarity of your thinking, and then you can step back and reflect on how to clarify it further. Be sure to avoid jargon and general terms that are not well defined. Ask yourself whether someone not in your field, maybe a sibling, a parent, or a friend, would be able to understand what you mean. You are likely to write multiple drafts with lots of scribbling, crossing out, and revising.

Used as a tool for communicating, writing the best version of what you know before moving to the next phase will help you record your decisions and the reasons for them before you forget important details. This best-version-for-now paper also provides the basis for your thinking about the next phase of your scientific inquiry.

At this point in the process, you will be writing your (research) questions, the answers you predict, and the rationales for your predictions. The predictions you make should be direct answers to your research questions and should flow logically from (or be directly supported by) the rationales you present. In addition, you will have a written statement of the study’s purpose or, said another way, an argument for the importance of the hypotheses you will be testing. It is in the early sections of your paper that you will convince your audience about the importance of your hypotheses.

In our experience, presenting research questions is a more common form of stating the goal of a research study than presenting well-formulated hypotheses. Authors sometimes present a hypothesis, often as a simple prediction of what they might find. The hypothesis is then forgotten and not used to guide the analysis or interpretations of the findings. In other words, authors seldom use hypotheses to do the kind of work we describe. This means that many research articles you read will not treat hypotheses as we suggest. We believe these are missed opportunities to present research in a more compelling and informative way. We intend to provide enough guidance in the remaining chapters for you to feel comfortable organizing your evolving research paper around formulating, testing, and revising hypotheses.

While we were editing one of the leading research journals in mathematics education ( JRME ), we conducted a study of reviewers’ critiques of papers submitted to the journal. Two of the five most common concerns were: (1) the research questions were unclear, and (2) the answers to the questions did not make a substantial contribution to the field. These are likely to be major concerns for the reviewers of all research journals. We hope the knowledge and skills you have acquired working through this chapter will allow you to write the opening to your evolving research paper in a way that addresses these concerns. Much of the chapter should help make your research questions clear, and the prior section on formulating “important hypotheses” will help you convey the contribution of your study.

Exercise 2.3

Look back at your answers to the sets of questions before part II of this chapter.

Think about how you would argue for the importance of your current interest.

Write your interest in the form of (1) a research problem, (2) a research question, and (3) a prediction with the beginnings of a rationale. You will update these as you read the remaining chapters.

Part VIII. The Heart of Scientific Inquiry

In this chapter, we have described the process of formulating hypotheses. This process is at the heart of scientific inquiry. It is where doing research begins. Conducting research always involves formulating, testing, and revising hypotheses. This is true regardless of your research questions and whether you are using qualitative, quantitative, or mixed methods. Without engaging in this process in a deliberate, intense, relentless way, your study will reveal less than it could. By engaging in this process, you are maximizing what you, and others, can learn from conducting your study.

In the next chapter, we build on the ideas we have developed in the first two chapters to describe the purpose and nature of theoretical frameworks . The term theoretical framework, along with closely related terms like conceptual framework, can be somewhat mysterious for beginning researchers and can seem like a requirement for writing a paper rather than an aid for conducting research. We will show how theoretical frameworks grow from formulating hypotheses—from developing rationales for the predicted answers to your research questions. We will propose some practical suggestions for building theoretical frameworks and show how useful they can be. In addition, we will continue Martha’s story from the point at which we paused earlier—developing her theoretical framework.

Cai, J., Morris, A., Hohensee, C., Hwang, S., Robison, V., Cirillo, M., Kramer, S. L., & Hiebert, J. (2019b). Posing significant research questions. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 50 (2), 114–120. https://doi.org/10.5951/jresematheduc.50.2.0114

Article   Google Scholar  

Carpenter, T. P., Fennema, E., Peterson, P. L., Chiang, C. P., & Loef, M. (1989). Using knowledge of children’s mathematics thinking in classroom teaching: An experimental study. American Educational Research Journal, 26 (4), 385–531.

Fennema, E., Carpenter, T. P., Franke, M. L., Levi, L., Jacobs, V. R., & Empson, S. B. (1996). A longitudinal study of learning to use children’s thinking in mathematics instruction. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 27 (4), 403–434.

Glaser, B. G., & Holton, J. (2004). Remodeling grounded theory. Forum: Qualitative Social Research, 5(2). https://www.qualitative-research.net/index.php/fqs/article/view/607/1316

Gournelos, T., Hammonds, J. R., & Wilson, M. A. (2019). Doing academic research: A practical guide to research methods and analysis . Routledge.

Book   Google Scholar  

Hohensee, C. (2014). Backward transfer: An investigation of the influence of quadratic functions instruction on students’ prior ways of reasoning about linear functions. Mathematical Thinking and Learning, 16 (2), 135–174.

Husserl, E. (1973). Cartesian meditations: An introduction to phenomenology (D. Cairns, Trans.). Martinus Nijhoff. (Original work published 1929).

Google Scholar  

Levitt, H. M., Bamberg, M., Creswell, J. W., Frost, D. M., Josselson, R., & Suárez-Orozco, C. (2018). Journal article reporting standards for qualitative primary, qualitative meta-analytic, and mixed methods research in psychology: The APA Publications and Communications Board Task Force report. American Psychologist, 73 (1), 26–46.

Medawar, P. (1982). Pluto’s republic [no typo]. Oxford University Press.

Merton, R. K. (1968). Social theory and social structure (Enlarged edition). Free Press.

Nemirovsky, R. (2011). Episodic feelings and transfer of learning. Journal of the Learning Sciences, 20 (2), 308–337. https://doi.org/10.1080/10508406.2011.528316

Vygotsky, L. (1987). The development of scientific concepts in childhood: The design of a working hypothesis. In A. Kozulin (Ed.), Thought and language (pp. 146–209). The MIT Press.

Download references

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

School of Education, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA

James Hiebert, Anne K Morris & Charles Hohensee

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA

Jinfa Cai & Stephen Hwang

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

The images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the chapter's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the chapter's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2023 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Hiebert, J., Cai, J., Hwang, S., Morris, A.K., Hohensee, C. (2023). How Do You Formulate (Important) Hypotheses?. In: Doing Research: A New Researcher’s Guide. Research in Mathematics Education. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-19078-0_2

Download citation

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-19078-0_2

Published : 03 December 2022

Publisher Name : Springer, Cham

Print ISBN : 978-3-031-19077-3

Online ISBN : 978-3-031-19078-0

eBook Packages : Education Education (R0)

Share this chapter

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

• Publish with us

Policies and ethics

• Find a journal
• Track your research

• Manuscript Preparation

What is and How to Write a Good Hypothesis in Research?

• 4 minute read
• 321.4K views

Table of Contents

One of the most important aspects of conducting research is constructing a strong hypothesis. But what makes a hypothesis in research effective? In this article, we’ll look at the difference between a hypothesis and a research question, as well as the elements of a good hypothesis in research. We’ll also include some examples of effective hypotheses, and what pitfalls to avoid.

What is a Hypothesis in Research?

Simply put, a hypothesis is a research question that also includes the predicted or expected result of the research. Without a hypothesis, there can be no basis for a scientific or research experiment. As such, it is critical that you carefully construct your hypothesis by being deliberate and thorough, even before you set pen to paper. Unless your hypothesis is clearly and carefully constructed, any flaw can have an adverse, and even grave, effect on the quality of your experiment and its subsequent results.

Research Question vs Hypothesis

It’s easy to confuse research questions with hypotheses, and vice versa. While they’re both critical to the Scientific Method, they have very specific differences. Primarily, a research question, just like a hypothesis, is focused and concise. But a hypothesis includes a prediction based on the proposed research, and is designed to forecast the relationship of and between two (or more) variables. Research questions are open-ended, and invite debate and discussion, while hypotheses are closed, e.g. “The relationship between A and B will be C.”

A hypothesis is generally used if your research topic is fairly well established, and you are relatively certain about the relationship between the variables that will be presented in your research. Since a hypothesis is ideally suited for experimental studies, it will, by its very existence, affect the design of your experiment. The research question is typically used for new topics that have not yet been researched extensively. Here, the relationship between different variables is less known. There is no prediction made, but there may be variables explored. The research question can be casual in nature, simply trying to understand if a relationship even exists, descriptive or comparative.

How to Write Hypothesis in Research

Writing an effective hypothesis starts before you even begin to type. Like any task, preparation is key, so you start first by conducting research yourself, and reading all you can about the topic that you plan to research. From there, you’ll gain the knowledge you need to understand where your focus within the topic will lie.

Remember that a hypothesis is a prediction of the relationship that exists between two or more variables. Your job is to write a hypothesis, and design the research, to “prove” whether or not your prediction is correct. A common pitfall is to use judgments that are subjective and inappropriate for the construction of a hypothesis. It’s important to keep the focus and language of your hypothesis objective.

An effective hypothesis in research is clearly and concisely written, and any terms or definitions clarified and defined. Specific language must also be used to avoid any generalities or assumptions.

Use the following points as a checklist to evaluate the effectiveness of your research hypothesis:

• Predicts the relationship and outcome
• Simple and concise – avoid wordiness
• Clear with no ambiguity or assumptions about the readers’ knowledge
• Observable and testable results
• Relevant and specific to the research question or problem

Research Hypothesis Example

Perhaps the best way to evaluate whether or not your hypothesis is effective is to compare it to those of your colleagues in the field. There is no need to reinvent the wheel when it comes to writing a powerful research hypothesis. As you’re reading and preparing your hypothesis, you’ll also read other hypotheses. These can help guide you on what works, and what doesn’t, when it comes to writing a strong research hypothesis.

Here are a few generic examples to get you started.

Eating an apple each day, after the age of 60, will result in a reduction of frequency of physician visits.

Budget airlines are more likely to receive more customer complaints. A budget airline is defined as an airline that offers lower fares and fewer amenities than a traditional full-service airline. (Note that the term “budget airline” is included in the hypothesis.

Workplaces that offer flexible working hours report higher levels of employee job satisfaction than workplaces with fixed hours.

Each of the above examples are specific, observable and measurable, and the statement of prediction can be verified or shown to be false by utilizing standard experimental practices. It should be noted, however, that often your hypothesis will change as your research progresses.

Language Editing Plus

Elsevier’s Language Editing Plus service can help ensure that your research hypothesis is well-designed, and articulates your research and conclusions. Our most comprehensive editing package, you can count on a thorough language review by native-English speakers who are PhDs or PhD candidates. We’ll check for effective logic and flow of your manuscript, as well as document formatting for your chosen journal, reference checks, and much more.

• Research Process

Systematic Literature Review or Literature Review?

What is a Problem Statement? [with examples]

You may also like.

Page-Turner Articles are More Than Just Good Arguments: Be Mindful of Tone and Structure!

A Must-see for Researchers! How to Ensure Inclusivity in Your Scientific Writing

Make Hook, Line, and Sinker: The Art of Crafting Engaging Introductions

Can Describing Study Limitations Improve the Quality of Your Paper?

A Guide to Crafting Shorter, Impactful Sentences in Academic Writing

6 Steps to Write an Excellent Discussion in Your Manuscript

How to Write Clear and Crisp Civil Engineering Papers? Here are 5 Key Tips to Consider

The Clear Path to An Impactful Paper: ②

Input your search keywords and press Enter.

Statistics Made Easy

How to Write Hypothesis Test Conclusions (With Examples)

A   hypothesis test is used to test whether or not some hypothesis about a population parameter is true.

To perform a hypothesis test in the real world, researchers obtain a random sample from the population and perform a hypothesis test on the sample data, using a null and alternative hypothesis:

• Null Hypothesis (H 0 ): The sample data occurs purely from chance.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H A ): The sample data is influenced by some non-random cause.

If the p-value of the hypothesis test is less than some significance level (e.g. α = .05), then we reject the null hypothesis .

Otherwise, if the p-value is not less than some significance level then we fail to reject the null hypothesis .

When writing the conclusion of a hypothesis test, we typically include:

• Whether we reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.
• The significance level.
• A short explanation in the context of the hypothesis test.

For example, we would write:

We reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.   There is sufficient evidence to support the claim that…

Or, we would write:

We fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.   There is not sufficient evidence to support the claim that…

The following examples show how to write a hypothesis test conclusion in both scenarios.

Example 1: Reject the Null Hypothesis Conclusion

Suppose a biologist believes that a certain fertilizer will cause plants to grow more during a one-month period than they normally do, which is currently 20 inches. To test this, she applies the fertilizer to each of the plants in her laboratory for one month.

She then performs a hypothesis test at a 5% significance level using the following hypotheses:

• H 0 : μ = 20 inches (the fertilizer will have no effect on the mean plant growth)
• H A : μ > 20 inches (the fertilizer will cause mean plant growth to increase)

Suppose the p-value of the test turns out to be 0.002.

Here is how she would report the results of the hypothesis test:

We reject the null hypothesis at the 5% significance level.   There is sufficient evidence to support the claim that this particular fertilizer causes plants to grow more during a one-month period than they normally do.

Example 2: Fail to Reject the Null Hypothesis Conclusion

Suppose the manager of a manufacturing plant wants to test whether or not some new method changes the number of defective widgets produced per month, which is currently 250. To test this, he measures the mean number of defective widgets produced before and after using the new method for one month.

He performs a hypothesis test at a 10% significance level using the following hypotheses:

• H 0 : μ after = μ before (the mean number of defective widgets is the same before and after using the new method)
• H A : μ after ≠ μ before (the mean number of defective widgets produced is different before and after using the new method)

Suppose the p-value of the test turns out to be 0.27.

Here is how he would report the results of the hypothesis test:

We fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 10% significance level.   There is not sufficient evidence to support the claim that the new method leads to a change in the number of defective widgets produced per month.

Additional Resources

The following tutorials provide additional information about hypothesis testing:

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing 4 Examples of Hypothesis Testing in Real Life How to Write a Null Hypothesis

Featured Posts

Hey there. My name is Zach Bobbitt. I have a Masters of Science degree in Applied Statistics and I’ve worked on machine learning algorithms for professional businesses in both healthcare and retail. I’m passionate about statistics, machine learning, and data visualization and I created Statology to be a resource for both students and teachers alike.  My goal with this site is to help you learn statistics through using simple terms, plenty of real-world examples, and helpful illustrations.

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Join the Statology Community

Sign up to receive Statology's exclusive study resource: 100 practice problems with step-by-step solutions. Plus, get our latest insights, tutorials, and data analysis tips straight to your inbox!

By subscribing you accept Statology's Privacy Policy.

Dr John Sullivan Talent Management Thought Leadership

What differentiates good from great hr departments – hypothesis testing.

January 28, 2020

Adapting the title from the famous book, I pose this question to HR leaders: “What differentiates Good from Great HR departments?”

In my view, understanding the key factors that contribute to greatness is something that every HR leader that wants to excel should be doing continually. However, it turns out that because HR is a copycat industry, it’s hard to identify any obvious differentiators between the HR functions at different companies. Almost all HR departments of a similar size share the same programs and features.

Through my research, I have found that a commitment to “hypothesis testing” is the single “good to great differentiator” that stands out, such as at the elite HR departments of Amazon and Google. I also found that the impact of experimentation and hypothesis testing is so powerful in disrupting the status quo and driving quantum improvements in HR and business results that it should be considered an indispensable step on the road to HR greatness.

My research journey started with identifying the elite top five most valuable US firms by market cap (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook). And, because I had advised managers at each of these firms, I was able to identify any prominent differentiating features. Only one differentiating HR feature stood out because it was only present at two firms, Amazon and Alphabet: A formal emphasis on experimentation and hypothesis testing. The goals of that feature include accelerated HR innovation, more rapid continuous improvement, quality control and faster learning within HR.

Incidentally, I also discovered that it’s possible to be a great performing firm without having a great HR department. For example, in my opinion, Apple outperforms as a firm despite the fact its HR function doesn’t have a single exceptional feature. Instead, Apple succeeds because it has a great culture of innovation and a great product brand.

The two greatest HR functions emphasize experimentation and hypothesis testing

Amazon and Alphabet (i.e. Google) clearly stand out because of their data-driven experimentation and hypothesis testing. Here is how they internally codify and communicate this unique HR cultural element.

Amazon’s HR tenets   include   hypothesis testing  – “We seek to be the most scientific HR organization in the world. We form hypotheses about the best talent acquisition, talent retention, and talent development techniques and then set out to prove or disprove them with experiments and careful data collection.” “We rigorously audit ourselves to disrupt and reinvent HR industry standards.”

Alphabet’s HR tenets include experimentation  – “We apply the same level of rigor, analysis, and experimentation on people as we do the tech side.” “Our mission is to have all people decisions to be informed by data.” Google has formalized its commitment to experimentation by creating their PiLab. It runs experiments on employees in an effort to answer questions about the best way to manage at Google.

Hypothesis testing challenges best practices in HR

Almost every HR department relies on established “best practices” that have been adopted throughout the industry to guide their actions. Unfortunately, utilizing the same best practices as everyone else guarantees you won’t have a competitive advantage in HR. Also, this approach is based on the premise that the utilized best practices will continue to be effective over time. We live in a VUCA world where there are constant dramatic changes and new technologies continually being developed. What is needed in order to achieve and maintain greatness in HR is an ongoing assumption that all existing HR practices will soon become obsolete. And, under this approach, you form hypotheses about what still works (e.g. diverse interviewers hire more diverse candidates). Then you run statistical tests or conduct an experiment to find out if your original premise or hypothesis is still true (or it isn’t).

Examples of hypotheses that when tested, often produce startling results

Because most HR functions are not data-driven, the actual testing of hypotheses often produces surprising results. Here are some examples of hypotheses that major firms have tested, along with their yes/no results. Perhaps seeing these normally unanticipated results will stimulate you to begin challenging your common HR assumptions using a hypothesis testing program.

• Effective managers –  Managers have the highest positive impact on team productivity of any factor (yes).
• Customer complaints  – Inexperienced staff are the source of most customer complaints (no).
• Performance management  – The performance and the behavior of employees that complete a performance management program improves significantly (no). And, standard performance appraisal processes have a measurable positive impact on performance (no).
• The causes of turnover  – Delaying exit interviews for at least a month produces 40% more accurate causes of the turnover (yes).
• Increasing retention  – You can predict with a 95% accuracy which employees are likely to quit (yes). And, a promotion has the highest positive impact on a target employee’s retention (yes).
• What factors predict new hire success  – Past experience in the job is the best predictor of new hire performance (no). And, boomerang rehires routinely become top performers (yes). Also, the size of a new hire’s external network helps to predict their on-the-job performance (yes).
• Lengthy new-hire deliberations  – Taking longer to deliberate and make hiring decisions increases the probability you will hire top performers (no).
• Onboarding results  – Extended onboarding produces longer new-hire retention and higher initial productivity than standard onboarding when an A/B test is used to compare (yes).

Action steps for making hypothesis testing part of your HR culture

If you want to make the transition to greatness in HR, your function will need to implement a formal data-driven process for continuous experimentation and hypothesis testing. Rather than operating as a separate program, hypothesis testing must become an integrated part of your HR culture. If you decide to adopt this strategy, here are some action steps that can get you started.

Fully understand the approaches taken by the best in HR  – In order to avoid learning by trial and error, you should closely study the experimentation approach taken by  Alphabet  and its PiLab, as well as the HR hypothesis testing practices that guide  Amazon .

Adopt a continuous obsolescence assumption  – Start with a “ glass is half-empty and leaking ” assumption about all of your major processes and programs. Assume everything you do will soon become obsolete. Also, adopt the Amazon approach of rigorous audits in order to disrupt and reinvent HR. And, finally, only hire HR professionals that have the capabilities and the willingness to test hypotheses that challenge the status quo.

Assemble a hypothesis testing team  – Don’t make the mistake of assuming that those with traditional HR backgrounds will be able to do effective experimentation. Instead, follow the lead of Amazon and Google and get the help of engineers, data scientists, and psychologists to ensure accurate hypothesis testing. Closely study the work and the methods of Google’s Pilab (short for People & Innovation Lab) and their analytics team leader, Prasad Setty.

Partner with other business functions that regularly test  – Hypothesis testing is only rare within HR. However, it’s quite common in marketing, product development and CRM. So, work within and learn from the business side. Look for those functions that practice key elements of hypothesis testing, including beta testing, A/B testing, split-sample testing, pilot implementations, failure analysis, root cause analysis, and correlations to identify critical success factors.

Start by identifying the underlining assumptions of your major HR processes  – Begin by identifying the primary assumptions that underlie each major HR process. Prioritize these assumptions based on the premise that if any single one was wrong, which faulty assumptions could have the greatest negative impact on business and HR results? Begin your work by testing which of these impact hypotheses are actually true. Then try data-driven experiments in order to determine which modifications would produce the largest improvement in results.

Next, prioritize the HR functions with the highest business impacts –  Research has shown that recruiting, retention, onboarding and internal movement usually have the highest business impacts of all HR processes. So, prioritize your hypothesis development and experimentation in these areas because they will likely have the highest impact on future productivity and innovation.

Work with the right vendors  – A few data-focused vendors utilize statistics to test hypotheses (Visier and Entelo come to mind). Speed up your transition by identifying and working exclusively with vendors that can help you use data and machine learning to discover what works and what doesn’t.

Be prepared for vigorous HR resistance –  Even more than operating managers, I have found HR professionals to be extremely conservative. Don’t be surprised when HR professionals vigorously challenge even the strongest evidence about the validity of an assumption or the effectiveness of a current best practice. Be aware that experimentation also requires HR leaders to accept a high level of tolerance for risk and to relentlessly find a way around every obstacle and resistance factor that will block a new idea.

Move towards becoming a scientific HR function  – Hypothesis testing and experimentation all require a significant amount of data. Adopting a hypothesis testing approach should be only part of HR’s overall efforts to follow Amazon’s lead in  becoming more scientific . The overall goal should be becoming a data-driven function that measures its business impacts in dollars. It’s also important to remember the increasing importance of data. You can’t utilize AI, machine learning or most new technologies unless you first gather copious amounts of data.

 A sample hypothesis testing template

If you’re wondering about the process, here is a sample hypothesis testing template.

• Business problem :  High turnover rate and low productivity among new hires.
• Hypothesis to test:  The amount and length of onboarding impacts new hire turnover and performance.
• Required decision :  Whether to make a significant investment in extending onboarding.
• Data required:  Data from an A/B test comparing simultaneous short and long-form onboarding results in areas of retention and productivity.
• Data supported insight gained :  Stretching out onboarding has a measurable impact on new-hire productivity and retention.
• Suggested future action:  Stretch out onboarding and determine how many days are optimal.

Final thoughts

The goal of every HR leader should be to help their firm dominate their industry as a result of excellent people management. It should also be obvious that you won’t be able to make a significant contribution to that dominance. Unless you are providing a competitive advantage by continuously replacing your HR approaches with innovative ones that produce a significantly higher business impact. Since almost no one in your industry is likely to be currently using this hypothesis testing approach. Adopting it will provide you with an immediate competitive advantage and increased executive support because you will have hard data showing your impact on business results.

Incidentally, if you’re looking to adopt other tenets that distinguish great HR departments, they include transitioning to a data-driven model, focusing on increasing and quantifying your business impacts, adopting AI and other new HR technologies and prioritizing your HR actions that directly increase innovation and corporate revenue.

Author’s Note: If this article stimulated your thinking and provided you with actionable tips, please take a minute to follow or connect with Dr. Sullivan on  LinkedIn  and subscribe to  TLNT Daily .

As seen on TLNT.com on 1/27/2020.

Share this:

Tags HR management

About Dr John Sullivan

Need Amazing Employees? – Hire Those “Defined By Their Work” (Because commitment, work ethic, and mastery will produce amazing results)

Google found that 90% of a team’s value comes from the top 10%. So, recruit …

• Jira Service Management
• Atlassian Guard
• Company News
• Continuous Delivery
• Inside Atlassian
• IT Service Management
• Work Management
• Project Management

10 (new) ways Atlassian Intelligence helps your team work smarter

Delivering the latest in human-AI collaboration across our cloud portfolio

Since Atlassian Intelligence launched last year, customers like FanDuel, Workato, and Ovo Energy (over 30,000 and counting!) have been taking teamwork to new heights. They report saving an average 45+ minutes a week, demonstrating how AI can augment human performance.

But as we’ve said from the beginning, this is just that: the beginning. Today, we’re excited to announce more Atlassian Intelligence capabilities that are generally available across our cloud platform, as well as sneak peeks of what’s coming soon!

Let’s dive into 10 new ways Atlassian Intelligence optimizes how individuals work, how teams collaborate, and how organizations harness their data to deliver value.

1. Generative AI in the editor

Create versatile content that fits your workflow

Early adopters love using our AI-enhanced editor in Confluence, Jira, and Jira Service Management to get to a first draft faster, find action items, and improve their writing. Now, Atlassian Intelligence in Trello and Bitbucket helps users generate pull request summaries, release notes, and other key pieces of information.

Coming soon, the AI-enhanced editor will be available in Jira Product Discovery. You’ll also be able to reference other Confluence pages and Jira tickets in your prompts.

2. AI-powered summaries

Summarize information, banish feedback fatigue, and get lightning-fast context on other teams’ work

Atlassian Intelligence already offers AI-generated summaries in Confluence and Jira Service Management that help teams get up to speed quickly so they can take immediate action. Now, you’ll be able to get smart summaries across your apps too, including Atlassian apps and other popular ones such as Google Docs.

And soon, comment summaries are coming to a Confluence page near you. With AI page catch-up, you’ll get relevant detail and context on the latest changes to a page. Perfect for when you’ve been out on vacation or are onboarding to a new project.

3. Loom AI workflows

Video messaging: the next best thing to being just down the hall

Ever tried to explain how to reproduce a bug or how to request time off? Then you know: sometimes showing is easier than telling. But when you’re working distributed, at scale, or both, it’s not a matter of simply popping down the hallway for a demo.

That’s where Loom’s AI workflows will soon come in. They may not be an Atlassian Intelligence feature, but these AI-powered capabilities were too good for us to leave out! They can transform your videos into Jira issues, Confluence pages, and step-by-step guides that can be customized for various audiences. Here’s what you will be able to do with Loom AI workflows:

• Report a bug, fast: When a bug is documented with a Loom video, Loom AI workflows auto-populate Jira issues from your demo. It will even auto-capture console logs, network requests, and more – so your devs can fix bugs even faster.
• Easily document your processes: Streamline onboarding and training when you use AI workflows to create accurate documentation in Confluence. AI workflows follow the steps outlined in your video to craft SOPs, step-by-step guides, and more.
• Improve code reviews: Replace live code reviews with a Loom, then watch as AI workflows auto-generate pull request descriptions, code docs, or QA steps from your transcript.

4. AI in whiteboards

Turn ideas into action

Kick off a workshop or jam session by brainstorming ideas on a Confluence whiteboard. Atlassian Intelligence will pull from Jira Product Discovery insights, Jira tickets, and Confluence pages to generate ideas and create virtual sticky notes for them. Then, AI helps you organize by grouping similar ideas together on your whiteboard. When you’re ready, you can move the project forward by converting your whiteboard into a Confluence page, or a Confluence page into Jira tickets.

5. AI work breakdown

Let AI cut big tasks into bite-sized pieces

Say goodbye to creating issues one by one and let Atlassian Intelligence do the heavy lifting. Simply choose what issue type you want suggestions for, and AI work breakdown makes suggestions for breaking epics into issues, or issues into sub-tasks. After you customize and approve, all the work items are created and properly nested. AI work breakdown has started rolling out in beta, and will be available to all users soon.

6. AI issue reformatter and related resources

For polished, easy-to-understand issues

It’s easy to lose time in the back-and-forth between teams and functions. Soon you will have the tools to solve the root cause: Jira issue clarity. Whether it’s adjusting how issues are formatted or including that extra bit of information, ensure you have a good hand-off experience with issues that are well-understood and actionable by everyone.

AI issue reformatter, a generative AI prompt option, reviews and rewrites issue descriptions in a consistent framework to structure work for clarity – whether it’s steps to reproduce for a bug, acceptance criteria for features, or formatting steps needed to complete a task in an easy to follow way.

Related resources help teams reduce time spent having to check multiple places to find the relevant context for a task, by automatically finding and surfacing key information from across your tools and documentation and linking it to a Jira issue.

7. Virtual agent in the help center

Exceptional service where and when you need it.

Since implementing Jira Service Management’s toolset, including Assets and Virtual Agent, FanDuel has been able to cut support tickets that require human intervention by a whopping 85%.

And it’s only going to get better. Virtual Agent will soon be available in Microsoft Teams and the help center inside Jira Service Management, as well. Just type a question in the help center search box and AI will fetch the answer, along with links to related resources.

8. Natural language AI automation rules

Automate the tedium away, no coding required

Using natural language to create automation rules makes fast work of a time-consuming task. Simply describe what you’d like to automate, and AI will generate the rule for you. Customers who’ve used AI to create rules in Confluence have already automated 5x as many tasks as those who haven’t.   Imagine all the time they’re saving! You can use natural language to build automation rules now in Confluence, Jira, and Jira Service Management. 

Power through your incident management workflows

First there was DevOps. Then came ChatOps, and even HugOps . Now, get ready for AIOps in Jira Service Management – essential for on-call heroes who need to separate the signal from the noise amidst a flurry of alerts. Atlassian Intelligence will soon help teams group similar alerts together, detect patterns, and suggest potential root causes. It will also soon be able to recommend resources such as runbooks and knowledge-base articles for time-saving solutions, as well as automate post-incident reviews to help you prevent recurring incidents.

10. AI chart templates and insights in Atlassian Analytics

Visualize and interpret your data with ease

Teams already use Atlassian Intelligence to transform natural language questions into SQL in Atlassian Analytics, making it easy to dig through data regardless of technical skills. Now AI helps you interpret your data in natural language, too. When you create a chart (we’ve got new templates for that, by the way), AI search insights provide a brief description, along with helpful notes about trends so you can act on your data with greater confidence. 

From the Playbook

Unlock enterprise knowledge with Atlassian Rovo

11. (BONUS!) Atlassian Rovo

We’re so excited to announce Atlassian Rovo that we couldn’t resist mentioning it here. Rovo is a new product that helps teams find information scattered across diverse systems, learn through AI-driven insights, and take action through AI agents. It’s the next step in human-AI collaboration. Learn more here .

Data is the differentiator

Underneath it all is Atlassian’s teamwork graph, which connects and organizes data from your Atlassian products, Marketplace apps, and connected third-party SaaS tools. With over two decades of experience and the contextual information in your instance to draw upon, Atlassian can enrich AI, collaboration, automation, and analytics for you like nobody else.

We’ll keep enhancing Atlassian Intelligence with features that let teams turn more dreams into reality while handling your data responsibly. To learn more about the full list of AI capabilities coming to Atlassian’s platform and how to access them for your organization, visit the feature overview guide .

Advice, stories, and expertise about work life today.

Nine Strategies To Strengthen Mental Health ERGs In The Workplace

• Share to Facebook
• Share to Twitter
• Share to Linkedin

The U.S. Surgeon General has recently placed workplace mental health and wellbeing at the center of national health discourse, key to employee productivity and overall organizational well-being . This shift, along with the mental health concerns elevated by the pandemic, has catalyzed the growth of Employee Resource Groups (ERGs) dedicated to mental health and disabilities.

To shed light on the impactful role of ERGs, NAMI-NYC's Workplace Mental Health Initiative surveyed fourteen companies. The report identified key areas of focus for mental health ERGs and offer a blueprint to establish and grow these groups, which are instrumental in raising awareness, providing resources, fostering social support, and advocating for organizational changes that enhance mental health support.

In today's dynamic corporate landscape, acknowledging the critical role of mental health is key to enhancing employee productivity and overall organizational well-being. Mental illness affects all of us in the workplace and beyond—one in five U.S. adults experiences mental health challenges annually, and the other four are their family and friends.

Many companies already have resources at their fingertips that can make a tangible difference in employee wellness. One surveyed employee shared, “Storytelling is an incredibly powerful way to connect with colleagues.” An ERG can also have a systemic, transformative impact on organizational policies and culture. Another participant shared, “We started a grassroots emotional wellbeing group for a few offices and then it rose to a network across our company.”

Whether your organization already has a mental health ERG or is looking to start one, the following recommendations can help take your program to the next level.

1. Prioritize peer support: Establishing peer support programs — elevating the voices of people with lived experience of mental illness and their family and caregivers — within the ERG can foster a supportive community and enhance the workplace environment. Such programs encourage open dialogue, reduce stigma, and build mutual understanding and support among employees. Peer support can be particularly empowering as it allows employees to share experiences and solutions in a safe and supportive setting.

2. Foster interdepartmental collaboration: Enhancing the reach and effectiveness of a mental health ERG involves active collaboration with various departments such as Human Resources, Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Belonging (DEIB), and other ERGs. Joint initiatives can include co-hosting events, sharing resources, and integrating mental health into the broader discourse of workplace wellness and inclusion. This collaboration broadens the impact of the ERG and weaves mental health considerations into corporate culture.

3. Develop intersectional programming: Capture the diverse impact mental health has across various community identities. Create programs that acknowledge and support these differences to enhance the inclusivity and effectiveness of the ERG. Your company can tailor resources and support to address specific cultural, gender-based, age-related, or other identity-based mental health needs.

4. Establish a dedicated mental health focus: In our experience, some people who are diagnosed with a mental illness may not view or identify themselves as a person with a disability for a variety of reasons, especially since mental illness is often an invisible disability. To ensure all feel welcomed and supported, create a dedicated mental health ERG or mental health subcommittee as part of a disability ERG with distinct resources, education, and support.

5. Select passionate leadership: To drive the success of a mental health ERG, it's crucial to select leaders who are genuinely passionate about mental health. These leaders should not only be committed but also skilled in empathetic listening and building community within the workplace. Effective leaders of ERGs should be able to forge connections across different departments, ensuring broad institutional support for mental health initiatives. It’s also beneficial if they can share their own experiences with mental health, fostering a more open and relatable environment.

6. Demonstrate early wins: Kickstarting an ERG with small, impactful activities can significantly demonstrate its potential value and secure early organizational buy-in. Simple initiatives like hosting a well-received mental health awareness event or an interactive workshop can highlight the ERG's relevance and build momentum. These initial successes pave the way for more substantial support and broader influence across the company.

7. Utilize data to drive decisions: Data collection and analysis are pivotal in steering ERG strategies and advocating for resources. Tracking engagement metrics, feedback from events, and the overall effectiveness of workplace mental health benefits and resources can help refine the focus of the ERG and demonstrate its impact. This approach ensures the ERG's activities are aligned with employee needs and that the ERG can continuously improve its offerings.

8. Secure executive sponsorship: Gaining the support of at least one executive sponsor, a senior leader in the organization, can elevate the ERG's visibility and influence within the company. Identifying leaders who have a personal connection to mental health can further influence the ERG’s success. Executive sponsors can serve as champions for the ERG's cause, advocating for its goals and integrating its priorities into the broader strategic objectives of the organization.

9. Engage external experts: Forming partnerships with mental health professionals and organizations can significantly enhance the ERG's resource base and credibility. These experts can provide specialized knowledge and support, enriching the ERG's programming and ensuring the initiatives are grounded in evidence-based practices.

Creating or enhancing a mental health ERG is not just about providing support—it's about building a resilient, inclusive, and highly productive workforce where every employee's mental health journey is recognized and valued.

This is a content marketing post from a Forbes EQ participant. Forbes brand contributors’ opinions are their own.

• Editorial Standards
• Reprints & Permissions

• SUGGESTED TOPICS
• The Magazine
• Newsletters
• Managing Yourself
• Managing Teams
• Work-life Balance
• The Big Idea
• Data & Visuals
• Reading Lists
• Case Selections
• HBR Learning
• Topic Feeds
• Account Settings
• Email Preferences

How One Chinese EV Company Made Battery Swapping Work

• Chengyi Lin

While Tesla and others focused on bigger batteries and faster charging, Nio invested in customer experience, infrastructure, and leasing programs.

Battery swapping is a technology that could solve one key barrier for EV adoption: consumers’ range anxiety and the long waiting time for battery charging. Wouldn’t you feel more assured on a weekend trip if you knew you could stop at a swap station and replace depleted battery packs with fully charged ones in five minutes ? But this isn’t easy to do, as Tesla and Better Place’s past failures. In China, however, battery swapping has been a reality for a couple of years. How did Chinese companies like Nio make it work with 2,300 swapping stations nationwide? What can companies outside China learn from the Chinese experience?

Range anxiety has been one of the most significant barriers for electric vehicle (EV) adoption among consumers. For example, if I wanted to drive a Tesla Model 3 from Paris to the famous Mont Saint-Michel, which is roughly 360 km (or 220 miles away), I would need to carefully plan my route and stop at one of Tesla’s Supercharger stations near Paris before heading east, as there are simply no other Supercharger stations along the way.

• Chengyi Lin is affiliate professor of Strategy and a leading expert on digital transformation at INSEAD. His research and teaching explore the strategic impacts of digital technologies, such as AI, and drivers of innovation for global and multinational organizations.

Partner Center

Prioritizing our Healthcare Workers: The Importance of Addressing the Intersection of Workplace Violence and Mental Health and Wellbeing

Workplace violence impacts the mental health and wellbeing of the healthcare workforce. The negative outcomes not only affect the healthcare worker but can trickle down to patient safety and satisfaction. It is important that healthcare institutions implement workplace violence prevention programs that benefit the entire healthcare workforce. This blog post highlights current efforts across government and industry to address this critical issue.

The Healthcare Workforce

There are roughly 15 million healthcare workers employed in the United States. This includes home health aides and nursing assistants, physicians, nurses and nurse practitioners, mental health counselors, massage therapists, and pharmacy and emergency medical technicians. Current Population Survey estimates for 2022 reveal women make up 85% of the almost 5 million employed as healthcare support workers (e.g., home health aides, nursing assistants, psychiatric aides) and 50% of physicians and dentists. Nearly 25% of healthcare support workers are Black, compared with less than 10% of physicians and dentists. A large proportion of healthcare workers are between 25 and 34 years old and 28% were born outside of the United States. It is important that workplace violence prevention programs benefit the entire health workforce, including all ages, genders, and racial and ethnic backgrounds, and those who come to the U.S. to provide patient care.

Workplace Violence and Healthcare

Workplace violence is the act or threat of violence, ranging from verbal abuse and threats to physical assaults directed toward persons at work or on duty. Workplace violence has even occurred offsite when perpetrators stalk victims in anger and revenge. The two types of violence that most often lead to nonfatal injuries in the healthcare industry are:

• violence that is directed at a healthcare worker from the patient, patient’s family member, or visitors, and
• violence that is directed at a healthcare worker from a colleague, supervisor, or other co-worker.

Another type of violence that can occur in the healthcare industry is:

• violence that is directed at a healthcare worker from someone they have a personal relationship with, such as an intimate partner or family member.

Workplace violence in the healthcare industry accounted for a rate of 14 nonfatal injuries involving days away from work per 10,000 full-time equivalents (FTEs) in 2021-2022 (BLS, 2023a). This is more than triple the overall rate for all industries combined (4.3 per 10,000 FTE) (BLS, 2023a). While healthcare workers make up 10% of the workforce , they experience 48% of the nonfatal injuries due to workplace violence (BLS, 2023b). Healthcare workers experiencing workplace violence may experience suicidal ideation, posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, burnout, and continue to feel anger and fear and other emotions (Nigam et al, 2023; Lanctot & Guay, 2014). In addition to understanding the perpetrator’s relationship to the healthcare worker, it is also critical to identify the triggers and the goals of the violence (i.e., determining if it is reactive or predatory) to prevent recurrence.

In addition to the various health issues that can result from workplace violence, there are many costs associated with workplace violence in healthcare. Workers’ compensation insurance will typically pay the cost of a workplace injury in treatment and lost wages (OSHA, 2015), with other costs including the replacement of a healthcare worker, lower patient satisfaction (McHugh et al, 2011), and reduced patient safety (e.g., medication errors, patient infections) (Hall et al, 2016).

The Impact of Workplace Violence on Mental Health and Wellbeing

According to a 2023 CDC Vital Signs report, more than double the number of healthcare workers reported harassment at work in 2022 than in 2018 – rising from 6% in 2018 to 13% in 2022. The impact of this harassment on healthcare worker mental health is substantial. Workers who experienced harassment at work were more likely to report feelings of anxiety, depression, and burnout.

NIOSH launched the Impact Wellbeing campaign in October 2023 to provide hospital leaders evidence-informed solutions to reduce healthcare worker burnout, sustain wellbeing, and build a system where healthcare workers thrive. In March 2024, NIOSH released the Impact Wellbeing Guide , a tested tool designed to help hospital leaders and executives accelerate or supplement professional wellbeing work in their hospitals at the operational level. This includes fostering a safe work environment .

The Impact of Workplace Violence on Patient Safety

In 2023, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) convened a subcommittee of its National Advisory Council to establish goals for the National Action Alliance for Patient and Workforce Safety . The first aim of the Alliance is to facilitate healthcare systems’ commitment to performing safety self-assessments , including assessing their approaches to support workforce safety.  The subcommittee noted early in its discussions that patient and healthcare worker safety are intrinsically linked. This conclusion is supported by recent research that has reported on the intersection of patient safety culture, healthcare worker burnout and workplace violence (Kim et al, 2022; Kim et al, 2023). Kim et al found that in most instances, a positive patient safety culture was associated with lower workplace violence and lower workforce burnout scores (Kim et al, 2022), and a culture of reporting workplace violence—when it occurs—may reduce the effect of burnout on patient safety (Kim et al, 2023). The AHRQ’s Surveys on Patient Safety Culture TM (SOPS © ) include the Workplace Safety Supplement Item Set , which measures items describing healthcare workers’ perceptions of workforce safety (Zebrak K et al, 2022). Topics of emphasis include:

• Workplace hazards
• Moving, transferring, or lifting patients
• Addressing workplace aggression from patients or visitors
• Workplace aggression policies, procedures, and training
• Addressing verbal aggression from providers or staff
• Supervisor, manager, or clinical leader support
• Hospital management support
• Workplace safety and reporting
• Work stress/burnout

Risk Factors for Workplace Violence in Healthcare Settings

In 2013 NIOSH released a free, interactive online course designed to help healthcare workers better understand the scope and nature of violence in the workplace. According to the Workplace Violence Prevention for Nurses online training , the following are some of the risk factors for patient-based workplace violence:

• Substance use or misuse
• Patients who are in pain
• History of violence by the patient
• Cognitive impairment
• Accessibility to healthcare workers
• Increased stress (such as confusing signage or disturbing noise levels in the facility)
• Security measures that limit staff’s ability to respond appropriately to violent incidents
• Complacent attitudes towards workplace violence prevention
• Inadequate security procedures and protocols
• Lack of staff training and preparedness

See Unit 3 of the training to learn more about risk factors for patient-based violence.

The following are some of the risk factors for co-worker-based workplace violence:

• Stressful and emotional work
• Inadequate interpersonal, coping or conflict management skills
• Productivity demands
• Cost containment requirements
• Embedded hierarchies
• Changing professional roles
• Staff and schedule changes

See Unit 4 of the training and publications cited above for more risk factors and details.

What Employers Can Do

Employers in the healthcare industry can take steps to prevent workplace violence including:

• Engaging employees in efforts to promote a safe workplace
• Implementing violence prevention programs using guidelines established by OSHA
• Providing training in workplace violence such as the NIOSH free online training
• Meeting standards for workplace violence prevention set forth by The Joint Commission
• Collaborating with other institutions, organizations, and other beneficiaries to implement best practices for workplace violence prevention in the healthcare industry
• Creating a formal system for threat assessment after a first incident, to understand the drivers for the assault
• Incorporating tracking systems in the clinical chart/records management system

What Hospitals Are Doing to Mitigate Workplace Violence

Hospitals and health systems report that workplace violence and intimidation make it more difficult for staff to provide quality patient care. Nurses, physicians, and allied health professionals cannot provide attentive care when they are afraid for their personal safety, distracted by disruptive patients or family members, or traumatized from prior attacks. The American Hospital Association (AHA) prioritizes addressing workplace violence and its impact on health worker wellbeing. Guided by its Task Force on Workforce, the AHA has issued a report on strategies and resources for supporting the health and well-being of healthcare workers.

Further, the AHA’s Hospitals Against Violence (HAV) initiative shares examples and best practices about workplace and community violence prevention. The Building a Safer Workplace and Community framework guides health care leaders through building a culture of safety, mitigating risk, violence intervention strategies, and trauma support. The framework also highlights the critical components for success in designing a violence mitigation strategy, including data collection, accountability, and training and education at all levels of the organization.

This year, on June 7, AHA is hosting the eighth annual #HAVhope Friday , a national day of awareness to highlight how America’s hospitals and health systems combat violence in health care settings and in communities. AHA invites all interested parties to join #HAVhope Friday to see how hospitals and health systems use partnerships, innovations and creative thinking to foster peace and make a safer environment for workers and patients.

Government Efforts to Mitigate Workplace Violence

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration provided a Road Map in 2013 for safety and health management systems in hospitals that is still relevant today. It provides 6 core elements:

• Management leadership
• Employee participation
• Hazard identification and assessment
• Hazard prevention and control
• Education and training
• System evaluation and improvement

The Road Map defines the core elements, justifies their importance, describes what is needed to incorporate them, and offers best practices and examples. These safety and health management system principles are also expanded upon even more specifically with regard to addressing workplace violence in OSHA’s 2015 Guidelines for Prevention of Workplace Violence for Healthcare and Social Service Workers (OSHA Publication 3148).

OSHA staff also collaborated with NIOSH, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), and private sector researchers to develop a checklist with criteria statements to support internal audits of institutional programs. These criteria statements provide straight-forward approaches to evaluating whether a program contains critical elements. The checklist follows the general structure of the OSHA Guidelines for Preventing Workplace Violence for Healthcare and Social Services Workers. Other OSHA efforts include:

• A request for information (RFI) on Prevention of Workplace Violence in Healthcare and Social Assistance industry sectors in 2016.
• A public meeting on workplace violence prevention in healthcare and social assistance industries in 2017.
• A potential rule to address Prevention of Workplace Violence in Healthcare and Social Assistance is on OSHA’s regulatory agenda .
• Under the requirements of the Small Business Regulatory and Enforcement Fairness Act (SBREFA), OSHA engaged with a diverse set of representatives from small businesses and non-profit entities in healthcare and social assistance industry sectors in Spring of 2023 to receive input on the potential impacts of a workplace violence prevention regulation .
• In addition to guidance, OSHA has developed Enforcement Procedures and Scheduling for Occupational Exposure to Workplace Violence , which provides guidance and procedures to be followed when conducting inspections and issuing citations related to occupational exposure to workplace violence.

The Joint Commission

The Joint Commission published a report that crosswalks each workplace violence prevention standard with the supporting requirements, rationale, and references (The Joint Commission, 2021). The report contains important statements on program completeness. Recently, an update was published for behavioral healthcare and human services organizations (The Joint Commission, 2023). In addition, the Joint Commission recently developed an overview tool for de-escalation, with practical summaries for implementation through the Quick Safety 47: De-escalation in Healthcare (The Joint Commission, 2019).

In addition to the online training and the Impact Wellbeing campaign mentioned above, NIOSH researchers continue to conduct research on workplace violence . NIOSH supports health worker wellbeing through the Total Worker Health Program® , Healthcare and Social Assistance Program and the Traumatic Injury Prevention Program .

In addition to helping lead the National Action Alliance for Patient and Workforce Safety on behalf of HHS, AHRQ is supporting a new funding opportunity to address to explore systems-based approaches to improve patient safety by improving healthcare worker safety and well-being.

Workplace Violence Prevention Matters

Efforts to address the mental health and wellbeing of our nation’s workforce must include the prevention of workplace violence. Share with us in the comment section below how your workplace has addressed violence against health workers.

Cammie Chaumont Menendez, MS, MPH, PhD, Research Epidemiologist with the Division of Safety Research, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

Elisa Arespacochaga, MBA, Vice President, Clinical Affairs and Workforce, American Hospital Association

Robyn Begley, DNP, RN, NEA-BC, FAAN, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Nursing Officer, American Hospital Association

Melissa Bhatnagar, PharmD, MPA, Senior Staff Service Fellow with the Center for Quality Improvement and Patient Safety, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality

Priscilla Ross, Executive Director, Executive Branch Relations, Senior Director, Federal Relations, American Hospital Association

Megan E. Schaefer, Group Vice President, Governance, American Hospital Association

Christina Spring, MA, Associate Director for the Office of Communications, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration also contributed to this blog.

Arbury S, Collins NR, Magtahas J, Holmes M, Hodgson MJ.  OSHA Workplace Violence Enforcement. .J Occup Environ Med. 2022 Apr 1;64(4):e211-e216. doi: 10.1097/JOM.0000000000002482. Epub 2022 Jan 11.PMID: 35019893

Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2023a. Table R8. Annualized incidence rates for nonfatal occupational injuries and illnesses involving days away from work, restricted activity, or job transfer (DSR), days away from work (DAFW), and days of restricted work activity, or job transfer (DJTR) by industry and selected events or exposures leading to injury or illness, private industry, 2021-2022. Accessed online 2.21.24 at https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bls.gov%2Fiif%2Fnonfatal-injuries-and-illnesses-tables%2Fcase-and-demographic-characteristics-table-r8-2021-2022.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK .

Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2023b. Table R12. Number of nonfatal occupational injuries and illnesses involving days away from work, restricted activity, or job transfer (DART), days away from work (DAFW), and days of restricted work activity, or job transfer (DJTR) by occupation and selected events or exposures leading to injury or illness, private industry, 2021-2022. Available at: https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bls.gov%2Fiif%2Fnonfatal-injuries-and-illnesses-tables%2Fcase-and-demographic-characteristics-table-r12-2021-2022.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK .

Hall LH, Johnson J, Watt I, Tsipa A, O’Connor DB. 2016. Healthcare staff wellbeing, burnout, and patient safety: A systematic review. PLoS One, 11(7):e0159015. Doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159015.

Kim S, Kitzmiller R, Baernholdt M, Lynn MR, Jones CB. 2022. Patient safety culture: The impact on workplace violence and health worker burnout. American Association of Occupational Health Nurses. 71(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/21650799221126364

Kim S, Lynn MR, Baernholdt M, Kitzmiller R, Jones, CB. 2023. How does workplace violence-reporting culture affect workplace violence, nurse burnout, and patient safety? Journal of Nursing Care Quality. 38(1):11-18. https://doi.org/10.1097/NCQ.0000000000000641

Lanctôt N & Guay S. 2014.  The aftermath of workplace violence among healthcare workers: A systematic literature review of the consequences. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 19(5):492-501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2014.07.010

McHugh MD, Kutney-Lee A, Cimiotti JP, Sloane DM, Aiken LH. 2011. Nurses’ widespread job dissatisfaction, burnout, and frustration with health benefits signal problems for patient care. Health Affairs, 30(2):202-210.

Nigam JAS, Barker RM, Cunningham TR, Swanson NG, Chosewood LC. 2023. Vital Signs: Health worker-perceived working conditions and symptoms of poor mental health — Quality of Worklife Survey, United States, 2018–2022. MMWR, 72(44):1197-1205. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7244e1.htm .

NIOSH. 2013. Workplace Violence Prevention for Nurses. 2013-155. Available at: https://wwwn.cdc.gov/WPVHC/Nurses/Course/Slide/Unit4_6 .

Nowrouzi-Kia et al. 2019. Antecedent factors in different types of workplace violence against nurses: A systematic review. Aggression and Violent Behavior. 44:1-7.

Occupational Safety and Health Administration. 2015. Workplace violence in healthcare: Understanding the Challenge. No. 3826. https://www.osha.gov/sites/default/files/OSHA3826.pdf .

The Joint Commission Division of Healthcare Improvement. Quick Safety: De-escalation in healthcare . Issue 47, January 29, 2019.

The Joint Commission, Sentinel Event Alert. June 18, 2021 update. Available at: https://www.jointcommission.org/-/media/tjc/documents/resources/patient-safety-topics/sentinel-event/sea-40-intimidating-disruptive-behaviors-final2.pdf

The Joint Commission. R 3 Report/ Requirement, Rationale, Reference. Workplace Violence Prevention Standards. Issue 30, June 18, 2021. https://www.jointcommission.org/-/media/tjc/documents/standards/r3-reports/wpvp-r3_20210618.pdf.

The Joint Commission. R 3 Report/ Requirement, Rationale, Reference. Workplace Violence Prevention in Behavioral Health Care and Human Services. Issue 42, December 20, 2023.  https://www.jointcommission.org/-/media/tjc/documents/standards/r3-reports/wpv-for-bhc-r3.pdf.

Zebrak K, Yount N, Sorra J, Famolaro T, Gray L, Carpenter D, Caporaso A. 2022. Development, pilot study, and psychometric analysis of the AHRQ Surveys on Patient Safety Culture TM (SOPS © ) workplace safety supplemental items for hospitals. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 19(11):6815. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19116815

One comment on “Prioritizing our Healthcare Workers: The Importance of Addressing the Intersection of Workplace Violence and Mental Health and Wellbeing”

Comments listed below are posted by individuals not associated with CDC, unless otherwise stated. These comments do not represent the official views of CDC, and CDC does not guarantee that any information posted by individuals on this site is correct, and disclaims any liability for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on any such information. Read more about our comment policy » .

“EMT life: saving lives, racing against time, and maybe grabbing a coffee in between.” Thank you [Rohit Sen]

Post a Comment

Cancel reply.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

• 50th Anniversary Blog Series
• Additive Manufacturing
• Aging Workers
• Agriculture
• Animal/Livestock hazards
• Artificial Intelligence
• Back Injury
• Bloodborne pathogens
• Cardiovascular Disease
• cold stress
• commercial fishing
• Communication
• Construction
• Cross Cultural Communication
• Dermal Exposure
• Education and Research Centers
• Electrical Safety
• Emergency Response/Public Sector
• Engineering Control
• Environment/Green Jobs
• Epidemiology
• Fire Fighting
• Food Service
• Future of Work and OSH
• Healthy Work Design
• Hearing Loss
• Heat Stress
• Holiday Themes
• Hydraulic Fracturing
• Infectious Disease Resources
• International
• Landscaping
• Law Enforcement
• Manufacturing
• Manufacturing Mondays Series
• Mental Health
• Motor Vehicle Safety
• Musculoskeletal Disorders
• Nanotechnology
• National Occupational Research Agenda
• Needlestick Prevention
• NIOSH-funded Research
• Nonstandard Work Arrangements
• Observances
• Occupational Health Equity
• Oil and Gas
• Outdoor Work
• Partnership
• Personal Protective Equipment
• Physical activity
• Policy and Programs
• Prevention Through Design
• Prioritizing Research
• Reproductive Health
• Research to practice r2p
• Researcher Spotlights
• Respirators
• Respiratory Health
• Risk Assessment
• Safety and Health Data
• Service Sector
• Small Business
• Social Determinants of Health
• Spanish translations
• Sports and Entertainment
• Strategic Foresight
• Struck-by injuries
• Student Training
• Substance Use Disorder
• Surveillance
• Synthetic Biology
• Systematic review
• Take Home Exposures
• Teachers/School Workers
• Temporary/Contingent Workers
• Total Worker Health
• Translations (other than Spanish)
• Transportation
• Uncategorized
• Veterinarians
• Wearable Technologies
• Wholesale and Retail Trade
• Work Schedules
• Workers' Compensation
• Workplace Medical Mystery
• Workplace Supported Recovery
• World Trade Center Health Program
• Young Workers

To receive email updates about this page, enter your email address:

Exit Notification / Disclaimer Policy

• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cannot attest to the accuracy of a non-federal website.
• Linking to a non-federal website does not constitute an endorsement by CDC or any of its employees of the sponsors or the information and products presented on the website.
• You will be subject to the destination website's privacy policy when you follow the link.
• CDC is not responsible for Section 508 compliance (accessibility) on other federal or private website.